CONCLUSION ....................................................................................................34

injury, property destruction, taxation of communities (including through forced child recruitment), land grabbing, destruction of livelihoods, limited freedom of movement, and limited access to services and humanitarian assistance.

COVID-19 directly impacted the lives of Somalis, worsening patterns of vulnerability. This came on top of on-going disease outbreaks such as cholera, measles and, recently, vaccine-derived poliovirus. Healthcare providers have faced increased burdens and costs, forced to alter the way care is provided. Restrictions also disrupted the face-toface delivery of humanitarian assistance, impacting assessments, targeting and the quality of the response. However, partners successfully scaled up mobile money transfers and transitioned to assessments via mobile phones.

In 2021, the situation is not expected to improve. Based on the risk analysis, it is highly likely that climate shocks will continue to affect the most vulnerable people in Somalia in 2021. Drought conditions are expected in early 2021 as La Niña led to decreased rainfall in the 2020 Deyr rainy season (October-December), affecting crop production. Given the fragility of food security in the country, this will likely have a devastating impact well beyond the beginning of the year. Further, despite on-going control measures, there is a high likelihood that conditions will remain favourable for locusts to continue breeding and developing, increasing food insecurity and the effects on livelihoods. Recent climate events show that even during drought conditions, heavy and localized rains are likely to cause damage and displacement. Despite a forecast of below-average rainfall1, flooding is expected to occur again during the 2021 Gu rainy season (April-June). However, it may not be as severe as in 2020.

The COVID-19 pandemic, along with other communicable diseases and an ongoing outbreak of cholera, will continue to affect the most vulnerable Somalis and strain the already weak health system. According to a World Health Organization (WHO) global estimate, 20 per cent of Somalia’s population will suffer from the direct and indirect impacts of the pandemic in 2021. Finally, armed conflict and insecurity are expected to continue to drive needs and cause displacement while simultaneously impeding effective humanitarian operations and access to vulnerable or marginalized communities.

2.2 Scope of Analysis

In 2021, Somalia is expected to continue facing significant humanitarian challenges. An estimated 5.9 million people are expected to be in need of humanitarian assistance. According to the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), over 2.7 million people across Somalia are expected to face crisis or emergency levels of food insecurity by mid-2021. However, humanitarian partners estimate that this number will likely continue to grow in the latter half of the year. The number of people in need has consistently increased over the last three years, from 4.2 million in 2019 to 5.2 million in 2020 and 5.9 million in 2021. This is further reflected in the number of displaced people in 2020;