Foresight by Design United Arab Emirates
Naqiyah Mustafa g00064520
Executive Summary A foresight analysis of a country helps us understand the multiple facades of a country, in this case the UAE. In this report, there has been significant research done about the demographics of the UAE as well as other major aspects of the country such as their environmental, economic and social development. The report also analyzes Hofstede’s 5 cultural dimensions based off of the UAE. Lastly, it has selected 3 cards from the ARUP drives of change and analyzed and discussed their significance to the UAE and how the questions can be solved for the future of the UAE.
Part 1 - UAE Demographic Profile and SEE Analysis Demographic The United Arab Emirates is an Arab country located in the southeast region of the Arabian Peninsula. It is a federation of 7 emirates and the estimated 2018 population of the UAE is 9.54 million (World Population Review, 2018). The country has witnessed a large population increase in the past few years because of the significant growth in the various economic sectors. This has led to a large influx in workers from a multitude of cultural and religious backgrounds. From 4.1 million in 2005, the population of the country has grown to 8.3 million by the end of 2010. And within this group, the number of UAE citizens is less than 1 million (Government.ae, 2018). The UAE has an extremely diverse population living within its borders due to its extremely high rate of migration. The largest group of non-UAE nationals are South Asians at 58%, followed by other Asians at 17%, and Western expatriates at 8.5%. Other demographics about the UAE include the official language, which is Arabic. The population also uses Persian, English, Hindi and Urdu. And the official religion among the country is Islam at 76% of the population (World Population Review, 2018).
Economy According to the 2018 Index of Economic Freedom, the UAE has an economic freedom score of 77.6 which is the 10th freest in the 2018 index (Index of Economic Freedom, 2018). Economic freedom is defined as the fundamental right of every individual to have control over his or her own labor and property. In a country where the economic freedom is high, the residents are free to work, produce, consume and invest however they want (Index of Economic Freedom, 2018). Because of this, the UAE is able to establish a comfortable economic environment and works hard to ensure that it remains the same. The United Arab Emirates also focuses on creating a sustainable and diversified economy by focusing on branching out to other industries such as tourism and trade instead of focusing all their GDP growth on oil related industries. In the past, they focused mainly on extraction of crude oil, wholesale and retail trade, real estate, and other services. But now they are trying to refocus their efforts into other industries to ensure a healthy and stable economic growth (Government.ae, 2018).
heritage.org
Environment The United Arab Emirates faces multiple challenges in terms of natural environment due the impact of rapid development and the effects of climate change and global warming (Government. ae, 2018). To protect the environment and focus on sustainable development is one of the many goals that the UAE has set as part of their 2021 Vision. This is mostly due to the fact that UAE’s rapid economic development has led to serious environmental challenges because of the high pace of population growth and the increase in energy and water because of the fast-paced urban development. So, as part of their efforts to maintain sustainable development while taking the environment into consideration the UAE has set goals such as improving the air quality index, the share of clean energy contribution, quality of port infrastructure, etc (Government.ae, 2018). Creating this agenda allows the country to ensure sustainable development along with preserving the environment which will eventually lead to achieving a perfect balance between economic and social development.
Social In terms of the social needs of the country, UAE stands as an innovative social investor always seeking ways to expand opportunities for citizens to address regional and global challenges. The UAE focuses massively on important issues such as educational reform, improving healthcare, expanding the role of women, and preserving the environment. The country focuses greatly on each one of these sensitive topics and has implemented many initiatives to support the problems that the society faces. In terms of Education, in 1975 the rate of adult literacy was about 54% among men and 31% among women and today the literacy rates for both genders have increased to nearly 95%. The constitution also focuses greatly on equal rights for women, under which women can enjoy the same legal status, claim to titles and access to education, amongst other things. UAE also gives back to multiple philanthropic causes and works on improving healthcare and sustainable development throughout all 7 emirates (Embassy Of The United Arab Emirates, n.d.).
Part 2 - The Hofstede Model for the UAE Hofstede’s cultural dimensions theory is a tool often used to understand the cross-cultural communication within a country. It effectively describes the societies culture and its effect on the values of its member and further how these values could relate to the behavior of the community. This section of the foresight analysis will focus on looking at the analysis of the cultural dimensions in relation to the UAE and providing personal observations about the analysis.
Power Distance Index As per the official evaluation of the dimensions against UAE culture, the country scores high on the power distance index. This comes clearly from religious Islamic values where Muslim’s are raised to respect figures of authority and elders alike. Due to the religious background, individuals in the society are accepting of the hierarchical authority. Even though the country continues to become advance and modern, the cultural roots remain the same as this power distance index stays steady.
Individualism The UAE ranks especially low in individualism as it is a strongly collectivistic culture. People in the country are very family oriented and are committed to their societal groups. This is still easily witnessed in office interactions and other group settings. Everyone is extremely community oriented and most organizations push to make the employees feel like a family to gain their trust and create comfort at the workplace.
Masculinity The UAE scoring a 50 on this dimension is incredibly apt. The country shows qualities from both masculine & feminine dimensions as it sets out to keep growing and achieving the impossible through innovation and hard work, but also focuses on giving back to society, the environment and cares about the quality of life. A clear example of this is their determination to succeed in the goals they have created for Vision 2021. Not only are these goals innovative, unique and fast-paced but they also take into consideration societal needs and environmental benefits.
Uncertainty Avoidance The UAE scores highly on the uncertainty avoidance risk because of the country’s ability to plan into the future. They are extremely organized and detail oriented when it comes to planning their goals, five, ten and even twenty years down the road. The UAE, although open to innovation, are very rigid with their rules and are not always open to new behaviors and ideas from the western cultures.
Long Term Orientation Personally, I feel that the UAE would score midway on this dimension because of the way they try to incorporate their culture and heritage into their drive to prepare for the future. The country is always focusing on innovation and dealing with the challenges of the future but never forget the importance of cultural values and heritage from all emirates. Most often they use the cultural history to pioneer some of their innovation but are always ready to encourage growth to prepare for the future.
Part 3 - ARUP Drivers of Change
Income Inequality Analysis – Income inequality is often described as the as the disproportional distribution of income (Business Dictionary, n.d.). The “World Inequality Report 2018” has ranked the Middle East as the region leading the world in economic inequality (Habeeb, 2018). Within this region, UAE falls also within the bounds of income inequality as nearly half of the country’s wealth lies under the combined fortunes of the millionaires in the UAE. There are multiple disparities that have affected this inequality such as the disparities in social class, age, and race. Projection – The increase in income inequality can pertain to be a massive obstacle in the visions for growth and prosperity for the UAE in the future. By having deep income inequality means that the society is set into a wealth-based hierarchy where those at the top get access to more economic and political power and the rest of the population feel a sense of powerlessness (Pickett & Wilkinson, 2016). Unrest between the statures of the population and inequality in income can lead to multiple problems for the UAE in the future as expatriates begin to seek opportunities elsewhere with less of an inequality gap and more benefits for themselves.
Synthesis - President Obama has said that rising income inequality and a lack of economic mobility is “the defining challenge of our time.� (Wien, 2014). To curve this challenge the UAE must take considerable steps to decrease the gap in income inequality. A thorough analysis must be conducted to understand better the ownership of land and assets by locals of the country to see how much of the wealth do they actually control. With the help of this statistical data, new laws and frameworks can be put into place such as increasing expatriate benefits, creating a minimum wage and initiating worker unions, educating and encouraging the importance of equal income distribution locally, and perhaps strongly implementing legal agendas to ensure that the wealthier do not continue to have more power than the rest of the population.
Consumerism Analysis – In this day and age, where goods and services practically rule our lives, the UAE also sits in the bounds of a consumer-oriented society. Consumerism looms gloomily over the nation as it increases in power and products and services are largely promoted by the media. The government has also stated that, “Some of the woes that have beset the UAE’s economy have to do with this pervasive culture of consumer spending.” (Merzaban, 2008).
Projection – According to statistical data, consumer spending has made the Arab economy jump from 17.7% to a whopping 319.87 billion dirhams in 2007, more than double its level in five years (Merzaban, 2008). With the speed of increasing consumer spending it is safe to say that this inflation could lead to many problems for the economy of the country. Because of the expansion of consumer spending, there has been a massive risk to the savings and investments of the general public which could lead to adverse effect on the local economy. Governmental authorities also state that, “this alarming consumption rate could, in the future, constitute a big hurdle in the face of any plans to transform the country from being a consuming to a producing nation.” (Merzaban, 2008).
Do you really need what you buy? The U.S. has 1.3% of the world’s children, but consumes 40% of the world’s manufactured toys. Synthesis - Keeping the future objectives and visions of the UAE in mind, the country should consider raising awareness about the importance of savings and investments. It has been seen through research that families in the UAE spend 60% of their monthly salaries on consumption of goods and services (Merzaban, 2008). The country needs to enforce the need for investments for longevity and survival of a healthy economy. Apart from this they could consider pushing local entities to consider producing instead of just purchasing goods, which would influence residents.
Social Media Analysis – The UAE has a population of 9.45 million people, and peculiarly the number of active social media user at 9.38 million people, 99.26% of the entire population. Not only, is the UAE extremely connected digitally to the entire world, but the population of the UAE has gained an addiction to social media. Global Media Insight has stated that, according to a study, the average usage of social media comes up to 3 hours per day, or approximately 20% of their waking lives (McGlynn, 2018).
Projection – GMI has also found through research that there has been an estimated 13% growth year on year in the number of people engaging on social media (McGlynn, 2018). These number are inevitably going to continue to rise in the coming future. This increase in social media usage could be both beneficial yet a setback for the future of the UAE. Although, currently the UAE is seen as highly technologically connected and has impressive social network connectivity, there is a large percentage of people who do not want to live around social media addicts (Dubai Chronicle, n.d.). From the lack of social interaction to safety concerns, social media addiction could cause problems for the future of the UAE.
Synthesis - With the rise of social media addiction on the horizon, the UAE must consider a new path towards influencing their residents into activities that help them get out of the “social media spiral�. This is easier said than done, but the countries initiatives could involve awareness campaigns, and even community gatherings that encourage people to leave their houses, and more importantly their phones so they could refocus their energy into something else.
Conclusion Overall this report focused on finding information based around the UAE and then analyzing that information to create a foresight about the future of things in the UAE. The report further invested time in understanding the minute issues within the country and how they could be redesigned to help the future of the nation. The ARUP drivers of change allowed me to focus on each problem individually and learn about the relation between the cue cards and the country as well as understand how the issues will impact the future. With the help of this research, it allowed me to really understand what the main issue was and create solutions for the concerned areas. This report is just a step into understanding the future of design in the UAE and how we can foresight how to further use and build upon design to create a sustainable future for the UAE.
References 2018 Index Of Economic Freedom. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.heritage. org/index/country/unitedarabemirates 2018 Index Of Economic Freedom. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.heritage. org/index/about Business Dictionary. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://www.businessdictionary.com/ definition/income-inequality.html Economy and Vision 2021. (2018). Retrieved from https://www.government.ae/ en/about-the-uae/economy Environmental Challenges. (2018). Retrieved from https://www.government.ae/ en/information-and-services/environment-and-energy/environmental-challengesin-the-uae Environment and Government Agenda. (2018). Retrieved from https:// www.government.ae/en/information-and-services/environment-and-energy/ environment-and-government-agenda Habeeb, M. (2018). The Middle East Leads The World In Income Inequality. Retrieved from https://thearabweekly.com/middle-east-leads-world-incomeinequality McGlynn, E. (2018). Staggering 99% of people in the UAE use social media. But how long do they spend on it daily? Retreived from https://gulfmarketingreview.com/ uncategorized/staggering-99-people-uae-use-social-media-long-spend-daily/ Merzaban, D. (2008). “Alarming� consumer splurge threatens UAE economy. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emirates-spending/alarmingconsumer-splurge-threatens-uae-economy-idUSL2959468920080629 Pickett, K. & Wilkinson, R. (2016). Inequality has far-reaching consequences. Retrieved from https://www.khaleejtimes.com/editorials-columns/inequality-has-farreaching-consequences Population And Demographic Mix. (2018). Retrieved from https://www. government.ae/en/information-and-services/social-affairs/preserving-the-emiratinational-identity/population-and-demographic-mix Social and Cultural. (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.uae-embassy.org/uae-usrelations/key-areas-bilateral-cooperation/social-and-cultural Wien, B. (2014). Tackling the income inequality issue. Retrieved from https:// gulfnews.com/business/sectors/banking/tackling-the-income-inequalityissue-1.1324830 World Population Review. (n.d.). Retrieved from http://worldpopulationreview. com/countries/united-arab-emirates-population/