North Bay real estate trends for April 2021

NORTH BAY

real estate trends for April 2021

YEAR OVER YEAR COMPARISONS

In mid-March 2020, the COVID19 pandemic was declared and all parties were told to “Shelter in Place”. This basically shut down the residential real estate industry through the month of April 2020. The market then accelerated rapidly GERRETT SNEDAKER in May through October. Year over year statistical comparisons are therefore going to be skewed by these market aberrations.

NORTH BAY REAL ESTATE TRENDS FOR APRIL 2021

For all of the areas covered

GERRETT SNEDAKER, CRB

by our Multiple Listing Service (BAREIS), which includes Lake, Marin, Mendocino, Napa, Solano and Sonoma Counties, there is an inventory of 1,615 homes and condominiums for sale at the end of April. Inventory is 41% below that of a year ago (2,759) and it is 13% ahead of the inventory last month (1,450). At times, the inventory has exceeded 10,000 homes in the BAREIS region. There were 1,829 sales for the month of April. This number is 119% above a year ago (836) and slightly below the pace of last month (1,852). My financial adviser (John Engstrom with Fidelity Investments) used the term “frothy” to describe the North Bay real estate market in his eyes. It is bubbling and percolating at a rapid rate.

I have been following a data point I call the “Price Reduction Ratio”. Across the country, one might expect that 30 to 35% of the homes put into the MLS to sell will have a price reduction before they eventually sell. For April 2021, of all closed homes in Napa County, the ratio was 17.5%. Conversely, the ratio of homes selling in excess of Original List Price was 54%. When one sees over 50% of the homes selling in excess of original list price – that is an intriguing statistic.

Napa County: The inventory of homes and condominiums available for sale in Napa County at the end of April (228) is 35% below the inventory in April 2020 (348) and it is 10% above the inventory last month (208). Sixty-five percent of the inventory in Napa County (149 properties)

Dreamstime

is priced at $1,000,000 or above. New sales (165) are 120% ahead of the pace of last year (75) and are 4% below the 172 sales last month. There is a 1.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for homes closing in Napa County is currently 49 days. For the purpose of our MLS (BAREIS) “Days on Market” represents the time from when the property is first listed in the MLS to the date the property goes into “pending” (all conditions removed) status. On average, it can take anywhere from 0 to 30 additional days for properties to close after going pending. The median price of the 159 homes closed in April in Napa County ($895,000) is 25% ahead of the median

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TRENDS

From 20

price of a year ago ($715,000). Over the past four months, Napa County homes are selling at roughly 97% of original list price.

Napa County Luxury

Homes: If one takes the highest quartile (25%) of available inventory as the “Luxury Market”, the Luxury Market begins at $3.750,000 in Napa County at this time, up from $2,900,000 last month. There has been an increase of 134% for the number of closings (68) of Luxury Homes (sales price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County for the period 5/1/20 to 4/30/21 compared to 29 closings in the period 5/1/19 to 4/30/20. There are 60 luxury homes in inventory at the end of April 2021 compared to 61 at the end of April 2020. There were 12 new Luxury Home sales in April compared to 3 last year and 9 last month. This results in a 5 months supply of available Luxury Homes based on the current sales pace compared to a 1.4 months supply for the County as a whole. Days on market for the 9 luxury homes closings in April was 107 days. Over the past four months, Napa County Luxury Homes are selling at roughly 93% of original list price.

Napa: Fifty-three percent of the inventory in Napa County is in the City of Napa. There are 121 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of April in the City of Napa. This is 38% below the supply at the end of April 2020 (196) and it is 10% above the inventory at the end of last month (110). New sales (105) were 110% ahead of the pace of April 2020 (50) and they were 15% below the pace of last month (124). There is a 1.2 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 125 closings last month was 48 days. The median price of the homes that closed in the City of Napa in April was $860,000. This is 17% ahead of the median price of the homes closed in April 2020 ($735,000).

Up Valley Napa County:

The inventory of homes and condominiums for sale in the Up Valley Napa County market (Angwin, Calistoga, Deer Park, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena and Yountville) at the end of April (88) is 17% below the level of 106 in April 2020 and it is 14% ahead of the inventory last month (77). There were 36 new sales this month compared to 10 a year ago (remember the COVID effect) and 33 last month. There is now a 2.4 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. The Days on Market for the 24 closings last month was 53 days. Approximately 57% of the Luxury Market inventory (price in excess of $3,750,000) in Napa County is in the Up Valley Market (34 homes). There was one luxury home (price in excess of $3,750,000) closing in the Up Valley Market last month and there were six new luxury home sales.

In Angwin in April, inventory was 15 homes compared to 10 a year ago and 18 last month. There were nine new sales in Angwin for the month up from two a year ago and four last month.

American Canyon: There are only 7 available homes and condominiums in inventory at the end of April in American Canyon. This is 56% below the inventory a year ago (16) and it is slightly above the supply last month (5). There were 9 new sales in the month. This is 29% above the pace of last year (7) and 50% above the 6 sales last month. There is a 1 months supply of inventory based on the current sales pace. American Canyon remains the tightest market in Wine Country. The Days on Market for 7 homes that closed in American Canyon last month was just 27 days. The median price of the homes that closed in American Canyon in April ($665,000) was 21% ahead of the median price of a year ago ($565,000). The average price per square foot of the homes sold in American Canyon was at $346 last month, This is above the $275 to $300 range where the sales have been.

For additional information, please contact Gerrett Snedaker at 707-939-2009 or gsned@winecountrygroup.com

For more information, please contact Gerrett Snedaker at 707-939-2009 or gsned@winecountrygroup. com.