On The Cover

Carrots, Sticks and Jabs

Gov. Gavin Newsom receives the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine at the Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza in Los Angeles on April 1, 2021.

Photo by Shae Hammond for CalMatters

What will California do to win over vaccine skeptics?

By Ben Christopher/CalMatters

newsroom@northcoastjournal.com

Beginning April 1, all Californians 50 and older became eligible to get their coveted COVID-19 vaccine — including one politically imperiled 53-year-old governor.

Gov. Gavin Newsom celebrated this latest benchmark by getting a well-publicized jab himself, thus marking the beginning of the end of what has been a particularly thorny political challenge for the administration: How to make sure the millions of Californians eager to get a vaccine are able to get one.

Now it’s on to the next challenge: How to vaccinate the millions of Californians who aren’t quite so eager.

A survey released recently by the Public Policy Institute of California found that 14 percent of adult respondents said they would “definitely not get the vaccine.” Another 7 percent said they “probably” wouldn’t. That suggests that one in five Californians will need, at the very least, some extra convincing.

With new more virulent and lethal mutations of the novel coronavirus now rippling through the unvaccinated population, public health experts say convincing those “vaccine hesitant” holdouts is an urgent concern — not just for the unvaccinated, but for everyone.

“This is like a shapeshifter of a virus, so if we don’t do it now, then we may have to vaccinate everybody else again if some new super variant comes on board,” said Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease physician at the University of California San Francisco School of Medicine.

In the early days of the pandemic, epidemiologists estimated that roughly 70 percent of the population would need to acquire some degree of immunity to the virus — either by getting sick and developing antibodies or by receiving a vaccine — to slow transmission to a containable rate.

The new variants raise that figure to reach “herd immunity” to about 85 percent, said Chin-Hong.

But many state lawmakers and public health officials say it’s still too early to consider resorting to mandates or other coercive measures that have already proven contentious to goad people to wear masks during the pandemic.

“Rather than coming out with a hammer right away,” said North Coast Assemblymember Jim Wood, a Santa Rosa Democrat who leads the Assembly health committee, the state should use the next few months to “identify what the major barriers are, educate people, provide information, reassurance, contact the people that have the most influence … and see where we end up.”

A “continuum of coercion”

Wood and his colleagues have good reason to tread carefully. In 2019, the acrimonious debate over a bill making it more difficult for parents to exempt their school-aged children from routine vaccine requirements ended with a protester literally raining blood onto the floor of the state Senate. During the pandemic, irate anti-vaccine protesters have been regular fixtures at legislative hearings. In January, two activists issued warnings to lawmakers — particularly sinister in the days following the storming of the U.S. Capitol — that a vaccine mandate of any kind would

lead to armed political violence. months before everyone who wants a vac-

Newsom says the recall cam- cine actually gets one. As of today, more paign against him is backed by anti-vaccine than 19.8 million doses had been adminisextremists. At a press conference in mid- tered and nearly 7.4 million of 40 million March, Orrin Heatlie, a lead organizer of Californians had been fully vaccinated, the recall effort, rejected that characteri- according to the department. zation. “I’m not an anti-vaxxer, folks … my “Given where we are in the supply children are vaccinated,” he said. But he cycle, we are working to help people who also said: “I don’t want anybody force-vac- want to get the vaccine and to convince cinated. I don’t want anybody tattooed the next people who perhaps are only one against their will. And I don’t want any- step away through additional access and body microchipped against their will.” information,” Ng said.

There are no state plans to mandate That means partnering with community universal vaccination. In California and groups that can help the tech-unsavvy elsewhere, some health care workers and book their appointments and peppering first responders, who were given priority vaccine-hesitant or out-of-the-loop Califor shots, declined the opportunity. In fornians with ads. a March report by the Kaiser Family Foun- Newsom got his shot April 1 at the dation and the Washington Post, only 52 Baldwin Hills Crenshaw Plaza mall in the percent of health care workers said they historically Black south Los Angeles neighhad received a shot. borhood. He said he hopes community

In theory, California and other state members who get their vaccine there will governments have “broad power to serve as “ambassadors” for vaccination: regulate in the public health, even if that They will “go back home, talk to friends means limiting individual rights,” said Dorit and family and say, ‘I just got my vaccine, Reiss, law professor at the University of you should do the same thing.’” California Hastings College of Law. But in “It’s the power of emulation, the power practice, states have been wary of exerting of example,” Newsom added. “That’s that power. the power we want to

On the “continuum promote here today of coercion” that ranges because 18 million is not from mandatory public health education to ‘Our Ticket’ getting us to wherever that herd immunity fines for non-vacci- number is.” nation to mandatory Toward the end of Health As more vaccine shots, “we don’t really Officer Ian Hoffman’s April holdouts see their use those last two in 6 briefing to the Humboldt friends, family members the United States,” said County Board of Supervisors, and neighbors get the Reiss. First District Supervisor Rex shot and enjoy a return

A rare exception: Bohn asked a question. Nation- to a nearly-normal life, During a 2019 measles ally, he noted, 25 to 30 percent Ng said there is likely to outbreak in New York of those eligible are declining be a “domino effect.” City, public health offi- the COVID-19 vaccine. He asked But those last few cials targeted a handful Hoffman whether that trend dominos could prove of neighborhoods with has held locally. difficult to topple. low vaccination rates, “I think what I can say about Mark Baldassare, hitting vaccine-refusers the demand for vaccine in president of the Public with $1,000 fines. Humboldt is it has continued Policy Institute of Calito be extraordinarily high,” fornia, which conducted Waiting for Hoffman answered before quickly noting there have been the poll released last week, said the vacthe dominos “many more” people eligible to receive the vaccine locally cine-reluctant bloc hasn’t diminished much to fall than there have been available doses, making it hard to figure since January when a similar survey put the On April 15, all Cali- what percentage of the local number at 24 percent. fornians age 16 and population may decline a dose “There seems to older are scheduled to if offered one. be a hard core of 20 become eligible to get But the answer to that ques- percent,” he said. Detheir shots. With supply tion may prove crucial in deter- spite early concerns that still the limiting factor, mining the pandemic’s course Black Americans would Darrel Ng, a spokesper- — both locally and national- be particularly relucson for the California ly — moving forward. With tant to be vaccinated, Department of Public a wide variety of COVID-19 given the long history Health, said it will be variants popping up as the of undertreatment and a couple more Continued on page 19 » Continued on page 19 » Consultations & Design Services Practical Aesthetic Design/Land Use Specializing in DO-IT-YOURSELF Projects On-Line Portfolio CO-Founder/ Former Co-owner of Singing Tree Gardens

ORNAMENTAL EDIBLE NATIVE

DESIGNBYRYANSCOTT.COM | 707.834.5369

QUALITY SAFETY VALUE

97% of Subaru vehicles sold in the last 10 years are still on the road today.

More 2021 IIHS Top Safety Pick+ winners than Honda, Toyota, or Hyundai brands as February 24, 2021.

Subaru vehicles hold their value better than any other brand. Top Brand for Residual Value, five times

Get 0% APR Financing for 63 months on new 2021 Ascent, Outback, Legacy and Impreza models now through April 30th, 2021.

Standard Symmetrical All-Wheel Drive + 27 MPG hwy10 Standard EyeSight® Driver Assist Technology15 Built-in Wi-Fi24 and Remote Engine Start capability26 3 rows of flexible seating for 7 or 8 passengers

0% financing for 63 months OUTBACK

LIMITED XT

• 260-hp direct-injection turbocharged SUBARU

BOXER® engine • SUBARU STARLINK® 11.6-inch Multimedia Plus • Power moonroof • Heated steering wheel • DriverFocus® Distraction Mitigation System

0% financing for 63 months

McCrea Subaru

1406 5th Street Eureka • 442-1741 www.mccreasubaru.com

0% financing for 63 months. Monthly payment of $15.87 per $1,000 borrowed on approved credit. All advertised prices excludes government fees and taxes, any financing charges, and any emission testing charge. On approved credit. Ad expires 4-30-2021

mistreatment at the hands of health care virus continues to spread, some health officials fear it Who are the vaccine holdouts? professionals, the share may only be a matter of time With one exception, minor changes in California of Black respondents “definitely” opposed before one appears that eludes the vaccines’ protections. In vaccine hesitancy between January and March to getting the vaccine his prepared remarks to the fell significantly over board, Hoffman described the the last two months situation as a race between the All adult — from 35 percent to mutating virus and vaccination 17 percent as public efforts, which experts say must information campaigns ramped up. reach 70 to 85 percent of the population to achieve a level of Democrat

Instead, the most herd immunity that would constriking and unmoving predictor of vaccine tain the virus and its variants. Historically, there have been Republican skepticism was political pockets of Humboldt County affiliation. While 26 with disproportionate levels percent of Republicans of vaccine hesitancy. When a Independent said they “definitely” new state law came into effect will not get vaccinated, a handful of years ago, doing only 13 percent of inde- away with a personal belief African American pendents and 5 percent vaccination exemption and of Democrats said they requiring just about every child definitely won’t. in California be fully vaccinated Asian American

Wood said he’s for 10 communicable diseases optimistic that with before attending school, it creenough time, enough ated havoc in some schools in Latino information and enough Humboldt County, which at the encouragement, most time ranked 52nd of the state’s people will come 58 counties in vaccination rates White around. “I would hope for incoming kindergarteners that people that maybe with roughly 10 percent of have a political reason students entering school with a 0% 20% 40% 60% for not doing this would show a little bit more personal belief exemption the prior school year. Share who say they will “probably” or “definitely” not get the vaccine. compassion for their Hoffman described the Source: Public Policy Institute of California. Chart by Cal Matters. fellow man,” he said. vaccine effort as “our ticket out

Baldassare said he of this long, dark tunnel” and drew a different con- the thing that will return local clusion from the new residents to a “normal place.” towards numbing us were fast-tracked for regulatory approval. at how they can reopen safely, protect numbers: “Don’t take And he urged local residents to toward federal man- Earlier this month, seven Los Angeles their employees and their customers,” said for granted that as more be community minded when dates about health and Unified School District workers, including Rob Lapsley, president of the California vaccine becomes avail- considering the vaccine, noting federal mandates about four teachers, sued the district over a Business Roundtable, a coalition of large able that people will that every dose administered our personal lives,” said requirement that all district employees businesses. But at the moment, he said, just come to accept it.” brings the entire county closer Emily Jashinsky of the be vaccinated. The legal argument hinges there’s no coordinated “discussion about it

Last week, the Wash- to a place of collective safety conservative publica- on whether a vaccine authorized only for being mandatory or a requirement.” ington Post reported and the return of so much that tion The Federalist. emergency use can be required as a condi- Kroger’s, Trader Joe’s, Target and Amtrak that the White House is has been lost over the past 13 Republican U.S. Rep. tion of employment. This follows a similar are among the major employers who considering a program months. Marjorie Taylor Greene case brought by a county jail officer in have recently announced bonus pay, paid to give those reluctant “Do your part: Get a vaccine of Georgia, who was southern New Mexico. leave and other financial incentives for to get the shot an when it’s your turn,” he said. stripped of her commit- That uncertainty is discouraging some their employees to get vaccinated. extra nudge. “Vaccine tee assignments over of California’s other public institutions And then there’s Krispy Kreme, which passports” would offer — Thadeus Greenson her past peddling of from issuing their own mandates. At a is offering neither carrot nor stick, but a proof of inoculation for far-right conspiracy the- meeting of the University of California donut. Dozens of them. The company reinternational travelers, ories, had a more Bibli- regents in March, Vice President Carrie cently announced it would offer a free but also give companies cal denunciation, asking Byington said the emergency-use au- donut “anytime, any day, every day for and public institu- in a social media post thorization status of the three vaccines the rest of the year” to all customers who tions the ability to mandate vaccination whether a vaccine passport was “some- “would make it very difficult” for the U.C. bring in their vaccination cards. l among their employees or customers. The thing like Biden’s mark of the beast.” to follow the lead of New Jersey’s Rutgers program is similar to Israel’s “green pass” University and mandate vaccines for all program, which has allowed vaccinated people to enjoy concerts, sporting events Don’t vaccinate me, students. With politicians and public officials CalMatters reporter Mikhail Zinshteyn contributed to this story. and other perks of pre-pandemic life. That news prompted a backlash on the lawsuits say hesitant to act, the private sector seems to be taking the lead on much of the CALmatters.org is a nonprofit, political right. There’s also some legal uncertainty over nudging, with carrots favored over sticks. nonpartisan media venture explaining

“It’s a huge step — a huge step — the three COVID vaccines, all of which California businesses are “all looking California policies and politics.