THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
Boulder County Real Estate YTD Median Price
$388,000
8%
End of 3rd Quarter Inventory
$385,000
13%
Quick Facts 3rd Quarter # of Sales
1,731
12 %
3rd Quarter Sales Mix $0 $250K = 20% $250 $500K = 46% $500 $750K = 21% $750 $1M = 7% > $1M = 7%
MARKET UPDATE The real estate market in Boulder County was very strong during the third quarter. There was one short stretch at the end of July where the market softened ever so slightly but it soon rebounded. Throughout the year we have seen low inventory, very strong sales, multiple offers on listings and increasing prices. In most years the 2nd quarter has the most sales but this year there were more sales in the third quarter. This shows the strength of the market and that strength has continued into the fall. For the second quarter in a row listings across the market sold for 100% of the list price. These are the only instances that I know of where this has been true in our area. Despite a 12% increase in sales as compared to 3rd quarter 2014, inventory of available homes dropped by 13%. This means that there was almost no homes lingering on the market and that there was a very quick flow from listing to contract to closing.
www.KearneyRealty.com
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
Boulder County Home Values One Year Appreciation Source FHFA.gov 12.0% 10.0% 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% -6.0% -8.0%
2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1st 2nd Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015
Boulder County
United States
FHFA Ranking Ranking of one year Appreciation (271 Total Metro Areas) 250
200
150
100
50
0 2nd 4th 2nd 4th 2nd 4th 2nd 4th 2nd 4th 2nd 4th 2nd 4th 2nd 4th 2nd 4th 2nd Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. Qtr. 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013 2014 2014 2015
The top graph on this page compares the annual home value change (reported on a quarterly basis) in Boulder County to the United States as a whole. The US average seems to stalled at around 5% while Boulder County’s appreciation is over 10%. The lower graph shows how Boulder County stacks up with the rest of the country. At the end of the 2nd quarter our area was ranked 14th best out of 275 U.S. market areas in terms of appreciation. www.KearneyRealty.com
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
Boulder County Real Estate Market Charts Boulder County Percent of Sales by Price Range 0 - 250K
250 - 500K
19%
Q3 2013
500 - 750K
750 - 1M
44%
14%
Q3 2014
28%
44%
17%
Q3 2015
32%
49%
20%
Lafayette
Longmont
Superior
Mountains
5%
6%
6%
7%
6%
Price Trends in Boulder County Real Estate
Boulder County Sales by Area Louisville
5%
Boulder
1M+
$600,000
Plains $500,000
15%
$400,000
28%
7%
Median Price
$300,000
Average Price
4%
US Existing Median Price $200,000
5% 31%
10%
$100,000
$Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q 1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2009 2010 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 20112011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014
The top chart on this page shows sales in Boulder County broken down by price range. The most recent quarter is on the bottom and it shows that 49% of the sales during the quarter were in the $250,000 to $500,000 price range. As you read through this report you will notice that each area has it’s own footprint as to the prevalent price range The circle graph shows where the sales took price during the quarter as a percentage of total sales. 31% of sales took place in Longmont and 28% in Boulder. These are the two largest population centers in the county. Longmont especially had a very strong quarter. The line chart above and to the right shows the price appreciation over the past five years in Boulder County. The orange line shows median price, the green shows average price and the gray line is the national average. www.KearneyRealty.com
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
City of Boulder Real Estate
Quick Facts
YTD Median Price
$552,500
3rd Quarter # of Sales
17.5%
445
3rd Quarter Type of Sales
7%
3rd Quarter Sales Mix $0 $250K = 25% $250 $500K = 34% $500 $750K = 22% $750 $1M = 11% > $1M = 8%
MARKET UPDATE The real estate market within the City of Boulder has been very tight. Sales dropped 7% compared to the third quarter last year but prices have increased dramatically. So far this year prices in the City are up 17.5% compared to the first three quarters a year ago. From the circle graph above you can see that more condos sold during the quarter than single family homes. The mix of sales prices within the city is more spread out than the county and has many more sales on the upper end. Within the city 41% of the sales are for $750,000 or above, while only 24% sell over this amount in the County as a whole (and that number includes Boulder). The price of a single family home in the City increased by 14% over last year and condos are up 14%.
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
City of Boulder Sales Activity Charts Five Year Trend of Sales Activity City of Boulder
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 2011 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Sales by Type City of Boulder
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
City of Boulder Sales by Zip Code 12% 19%
46% 28%
54%
16%
25%
Residential
Attached
80301
80302
80303
80304
80305
Sales in the City of Boulder have increased only slightly over the past five years. The lack of new construction and the lack of inventory within the city limits have combined to hold sales in check. There were 445 sales in the City of Boulder during the third quarter which is a 7% decrease from a year ago. The pie chart on the left shows that the sales mix between single family homes (orange) and attached dwellings (green) during the third quarter. Usually it’s about 50/50 but during the most recent quarter more townhomes and condos sold than single family homes. Recall that in the county as a whole it was 70% residential and 30% attached dwellings. The circle graph on the right shows sales by zip code throughout the City. 80304 in the NE part of the city and 80303 in the SE part of the city had the most sales in the most recent quarter.
www.KearneyRealty.com
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
Louisville, Lafayette, Superior, Erie
East County Real Estate
Quick Facts
YTD Median Price
$420,000
3rd Quarter # of Sales
9%
418
3%
Sales by Type 3rd Quarter Sales Mix $0 $250K = 8% $250 $500K = 60% $500 $750K = 28% $750 $1M = 4% > $1M = 1% MARKET UPDATE The market in the communities of Louisville, Lafayette, Erie and Superior was very good during the third quarter. Sales increased by 3% compared to the third quarter last year. Median prices have increased 9% so far this year which is above the county average. Roughly 3/4 of the sales in these communities are single family homes and 60% of the homes sell for a price between $250,000 and $500,000. Within these communities, Lafayette has the most sales with 43% of the sales, Louisville has the second most sales with 20% of the sales, Erie is closely behind with 20% and Superior with 16%.
www.KearneyRealty.com
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
East County Sales Activity Charts
Five Year Trend of Sales Activity
East County Communities
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 2011 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Price Trend in East Boulder County
Sales by Area East County Communities
Q3 2015
$500,000
$450,000 20%
21%
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000 16%
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000 43%
Louisville
Lafayette
Superior
$-
Erie
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015
Median Price
Average Price
County Median Price
East County is made up of Louisville, Lafayette, Superior and Erie. Sales have increased in these communities over the past five years. My data is compiled through the local MLS system IRES, which doesn’t include all new construction, so these numbers should be even more pronounced. Year-to-date sales are up 12% in these communities. The pie graph on the left shows sales by community. This past quarter 43% of the sales within this area were in Lafayette (Red), 21% were in Louisville (Blue), 20% in Erie (Purple) and 16% in Superior (Green). The line graph on the right show the prices in these areas over the past five years. Prices are similar and they track the county as a whole. 8 www.KearneyRealty.com
THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
Longmont Real Estate
Quick Facts
YTD Median Price
$289,500
3rd Quarter # of Sales
14%
522
21%
Sales by Type 3rd Quarter Sales Mix $0 $250K = 31% $250 $500K = 66% $500 $750K = 6% $750 $1M = 2% > $1M = 0% MARKET UPDATE The Longmont real estate has been especially hot this year. The number of sales for the quarter were up 21% and sales for the year so far are up 23%. Median prices for the year are up on average 14% over the first three quarters of last year. Prices in Longmont are still below other areas in the county, however the number of sales under $250,000 have been decreasing as prices rise. Just two years ago during the third quarter 51% of all sales were $250,000 or below. This year just 31% were below this level. Most of the housing in Longmont is single family homes and as the prices rise there are not many condos or small homes that remain affordable.
www.KearneyRealty.com
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
Longmont Sales Activity Charts Five Year Trend of Sales Activity - Longmont
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 Q4 Q1 2011 2011 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
Q2 2014
Q3 2014
Q4 2014
Q1 2015
Q2 2015
Q3 2015
Price Trend in Longmont $450,000
$400,000
$350,000
$300,000
$250,000
$200,000
$150,000
$100,000
$50,000
$Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 2010 2010 2011 2011 2011 2011 2012 2012 2012 2012 2013 2013 2013 2013 2014 2014 2014 2014 2015 2015 2015 Median Price
Average Price
Boulder County
Longmont saw a large jump in sales in the county during the third quarter. Sales are up 21% compared to a year ago and are at their highest level for any quarter since 2007. Sales have definitely recovered in Longmont and this area is consistently in the top two area for total sales. The lower graph shows that the median price in Longmont (green line) is below the average of Boulder County as a whole (gray line). The median price is nearing $250,000. www.KearneyRealty.com
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
Month-by-Month Sales Activity – County Wide Number of Sales Boulder County All Properties
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
Boulder County Single Family Home Inventory 2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0 January
February
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March
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
Week-by-Week Activity – Boulder County Boulder County Real Estate
Number Sold - Weekly 250
200
150 Sales
2012 2013 2014
100
2015
50
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
Weekly Under Contract 160
140
120
100
Axis Title
2012 2013
80
2014 2015
60
40
20
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
Kearney Realty Co. – Our Core Values 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
Integrity and Class – Keeping our word; knowing what’s right and doing what’s right. Selfless Service – Exceeding expectations by focusing on exceptional service. Caring – All of our relationships are based on mutual respect, cooperation and consideration. Connected – Give back to the profession and the community. 5% of company profits are donated to local charities. Innovation – Continually striving to find new and better ways to serve our customers and our associates.
www.KearneyRealty.com
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015
My Approach to Home Marketing It used to be that to market a home meant putting a sign in the yard, copying a few brochures and placing the home in the local MLS service. Back in the day of MLS books, buyers and realtors had to wait a week for the book of listings to be updated. Now, the speed of information is almost instantaneous and it takes a diverse mix of marketing methods to attract buyers and maximize seller return. My goal is to maximize the appeal of my listings to prospective buyers through impeccable preparation, high quality deliverables and a beautiful Internet presence that gives each and every listing the custom feel that buyers appreciate. I fulfill this goal through the execution of my highly effective and proven marketing plan that puts the home, not the agency in the forefront. Preparation The first step in my premier marketing plan is in detailed and early preparation. Your house deserves professional and experience representation and this begins long before the sign is placed in the yard. The first step in the preparation phase is to price the property correctly. Proper pricing results in maximizing the sales price for the Seller while still staying attractive to potential Buyers. Correct pricing takes into account comparable sales, the location, the condition of the property, the current market conditions and the competition. I take great care in analyzing and comparing your property to other homes with specialized spreadsheets I have developed over time that help us decide on the right price. Once the price is set and the listing papers are signed, I go to work to maximize the appeal of the home by taking great photos and writing a compelling description. To many listings describe the property in terms of facts. I strive to describe the home as a lifestyle, a place to make memories, a place they want to live. The goal of the photos and remarks is to make the buyer want to look at the property in person. Almost all potential buyers are viewing listings online. Our first showing is online and the goal of my marketing is to make the buyer want to see the property in person.
The Hub – Custom Designed Website After the photos are done and the description is written, my hub and spoke marketing plan is implemented. The hub is a custom website that I build from scratch. This is a true custom website developed from scratch and with it’s own website address. On this website I can tell the full story of your home, display all of the photos, describe the location, the neighborhood, display links to the HOA, show the brochure and the MLS sheet, etc. When a buyer wants more information we want more than 500 characters (the limit on MLS and other online sites) to tell the full story of why this home is different and why they should see it. The custom website is where interested buyers go to get the information they want and it’s where they send their family to share their excitement. This is where we point all of our other marketing. This is where we can give a full and controlled experience to our potential buyers. Some recent examples: www.2453Gorce.com; www.577IndianPeaks.com; www.6841Bugle.com.
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THE KEARNEY REPORT Q3 2015 The Spokes The spokes of my premier marketing plan includes print, online and Realtor-to-Realtor advertising. The diagram on this page shows how I use a broad spectrum of marketing methods to reach potential buyers. All of my marketing is done with a feel of substance and quality. Print marketing includes a sign, custom brochures, a sign rider with the website address and consistent display advertising in the Daily Camera. Our strategic online marketing includes websites across all sectors. These include national websites such as Realtor.com and Redfin.com. Regional websites such as Coloproperty.com. Local websites such as AtHomeColorado.com. Competitor websites such as Remax.com, COHomefinder.com, and wkre.com. Of course your property will be featured on the KearneyRealty.com and NeilKearney.com websites as well. The goal of online marketing is to impel the buyer to take the next step. Our marketing to other Realtors includes a thorough MLS listing, which includes the compelling description and beautiful photos and email marketing to our local list of over 800 agents. With the MLS listing, it’s important to have done all of the prep work upfront because you only have one chance to make a good first impression. I have established a reputation among my peers based on impeccable ethics and easy communication. Other agents like working with me and they know when they bring an offer it will be handled promptly and with complete integrity. The remainder of this proposal includes examples of my marketing plan, my resume, testimonials from past clients, advice on getting your home ready to show and information about the process of selling a home. I have extensive information and market statistics available on my website www.NeilKearney.com and I invite you to do some research on your own. I look forward to the opportunity to serve you! Best Regards,
Neil Kearney Broker/Owner Kearney Realty Co.
www.KearneyRealty.com
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