Capital Market

Energy

CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL MARKET

The market remained closed for a period between March 23rd and June 12th, it briefly opened for two days on 11th and 12th May, 2020. Thereafter the market has remained closed until date without any plans or signs of reopening, keeping the sole secondary market closed for over 80 days.

Secondary Market: During the review period, the Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE) index went down by 10.42% to close at 1201.57 points. The total market capitalization had reached NPR 1.536.42 trillion (USD 13.09 billion) while the total floated

Table 8 Key Indicators

market capitalization reached NPR 559 billion (USD 4.76billion).

As depicted in Table 8, all of the subindices landed in the red zone during the review period. The biggest loser was Hotels sub-index (-19.97%) followed by Non-Life Insurance subindex (-15.19%) and, Life Insurance sub-index (-12.93%). Likewise, Micro Finance (-11.41%), Hydropower sub index (-11.60%) and commercial bank sub index (-9.95%) were other top losers during this period.

NEPSE Index

Sub-Indices

Commercial Bank

Development Bank Hydropower Finance

Non-Life Insurance

Others Hotels Microfinance Life Insurance Manufacturing & Processing

11 February , 2020 1,341.38

1,156.69 1,836.67 1017.67 667.31 6,063.40 694.56 1,945.12 2,266.95 7,476.07 2,553.10

11 June, 2020

1,201.57

% Change -10.42%

1,041.50 1,687.73 899.67 629.23 5,142.25 641.76 1,556.69 2,008.29 6,509.45 2,390.64 -9.96% -8.11% -11.60% -5.71% -15.19% -7.60% -19.97% -11.41% -12.93% -6.36%

Source: Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE)

Figure 11 NEPSE Movement Index

Primary Market: In the public issue front, there was only one public offering right before the lockdown, Nepal Reinsurance Company’s 1.6 million units were offered to the general public, the issue was oversubscribed by 3.46 times and has been already allotted and is awaiting listing in the secondary market. Meanwhile, NIC Asia Microfinance is issuing public share worth NPR 47.5 million from 24 th June. CARE Ratings Nepal has assigned “CARENP-IPO Grade 4+” to the proposed IPO.

Key Developments:

Confusion on Capital Gain Tax

to be sorted: Acknowledging the existing confusion on capital gain tax (CGT) while obtaining tax clearance certificate from the Inland Revenue Department (IRD), Securities Board of Nepal (SEBON) has requested concerned department of IRD to treat CGT as the final tax mechanism.

Investors ‘bank account’ and ‘DEMAT account’ to be connected

with NOTS: To fully automate online trading, SEBON has directed NEPSE to connect investors banks account and DEMAT account with NEPSE’s Online Trading System (NOTS). Such provision will electronically settle share transactions and payments. For instance, the traded shares will be electronically credited in the investors DEMAT account (purchaser) while the transaction amount will be automatically credited in the sellers bank account. Likewise, SEBON has directed NEPSE to make arrangements to make payment settlement of transactions in the market completely via online payment mediums only starting from Mid-July 2020.

SEBON urges Nepal Rastra Bank to make few new provisions to create favorable environment for

the market: The board has urged the NRB to do the following:

Source: Nepal Stock Exchange (NEPSE)

To increase the margin loan facility that is equal to 75% of stock valuation from existing 65% likewise, only to make margin call if the market value of stock decreases by 10%.

To extend the margin loan repayment until mid-October 2020, and also to renew such margin loans within margin limits.

To remove existing limits on an online digital transaction between stock brokers and investors.

The interest on credit provided to stock brokers by BFIs for margin trading should be lower than the interest rate of margin loans.

Draft Guidelines on Book Building open for public comments and feedback: As outlined in its plan and programs for the current fiscal year, SEBON has published first draft of Book Building guideline for

public comments and feedback on its provisions. The new regulation once introduced will pave way for premium pricing of initial public offering of securities, and is expected to increase transparency and competitiveness in public offerings.

“OUTLOOK

The sole secondary market has remained closed for almost the last 3 months, even though the market opened for 2 days after ease of lockdown, it was amongst the first entity which announced to close its operation till further notice citing a spike in COVID-19 cases. Even though key stakeholders in the ecosystem required to operate the market such as the regulators, merchant bankers, stock brokers and financial institutions are operating (under limited capacity and scale), the failure to resume or have actionable plans to gradually resume the secondary market is concerning. Releasing a further notice on June 21 st , NEPSE has announced that the market will remain closed onwards until further notice.

As liquidity is key in these tough times, it is highly likely that investors will either seek to pledge their shares to access credit from banks or seek to sell their stocks in the secondary market. It also seems that the fear of market crash and its subsequent impact on margin loans-margin calls has affected market sentiments against opening of the market. Since the current pandemic is likely to prolong and is going to have long-term implications, the market should not remain closed further. Alternative measures should be taken to gradually reopen the market. On a positive note, against all the odds and fear, since market interest rates is likely to come down, the market is also likely to see some fresh buying pressure as well which could create positive market sentiment too. The international market performance also indicates the same.

Even though NEPSE introduced NEPSE Online Trading System (NOTS) in 2018, lack of mechanisms and fullfledged implementation required for the system has severely affected automated operation of NEPSE, leading to current closure of market. As per the latest figures there are around 1.7 million DEMAT account holders, and 1.35 million registered investors with stock brokers out of which only 16,573 investors (less than 1.5%) are registered for online transactions 231 . To attract more investors towards online platform, similar to the steps undertaken by the central bank, SEBON and NEPSE should come out with attractive provisions such as cancelation of certain fees and discounts to attract online transactions, likewise the existing bottlenecks such as restrictions or limitations on online payments and transfers should be lifted. As directed by SEBON, NEPSE without much delay should make necessary arrangements to fully implement payment settlement via digital medium only. As the government, via the fiscal budget, has announced to make secondary market transaction of NEPSE fully automated, the key stakeholders should take this as an opportunity to work towards fully automating the secondary market operations and gradually developing the market towards greater stability.

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students-don-t-have-computers-and-internet “Online classes may widen digital divide”, Madhu Sudan Dahal, Nepali Times, 08 May 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://www.nepalitimes.

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govt-tells-schools-not-to-enroll-students “Soft loans announced for private schools that don’t charge students for a month”, Binod Ghimire, The Kathmandu Post, 03 May 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/national/2020/05/03/ soft-loan-announced-for-private-schools-that-don-t-charge-students

for-a-month “Pollution by brick kilns kills 600 each year in Nepal: Report”, myRepublica, 03 May 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://myrepublica. nagariknetwork.com/news/pollution-by-brick-kilns-kills-600-each-year

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com/opinion/COVID-19-may-magnify-suicide-rates “A 200 % increase in maternal mortality since the lockdown began”, Arjun poudel, 27 May 2020, The Kathmandu Post. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/national/2020/05/27/a-200-%-increase-in

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campaign/ “€ 75 million EU aid to Nepal for COVID-19”, Nepali Times, 27 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/e75-

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of Nepal. Retrieved fromhttps://COVID-19.mohp.gov.np/#/ “VNY 2020 campaign formally canceled”, Republica, myRepublica, 01 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.

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coronavirus-outbreak “Provide discount on income tax to encourage domestic travel, urges NTB”, The Himalayan Times, 05 May 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://thehimalayantimes.com/business/provide-discount-on-income

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sector-nepal-tourism-board/ “Nepal unveils COVID-19 budget”, Nepali Times, 28 May 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://www.nepalitimes.com/latest/nepal-unveils

covid-19-budget/ “Sherpas rendered jobless by lockdown to be hired to clean up trekking trails”, Sangam Prasain, The Kathmandu Post, 22 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/money/2020/04/22/ sherpas-rendered-jobless-by-lockdown-to-be-hired-to-clean-up

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and platforms https://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/institutional-document/495276/

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English-Based-on-Nine-Months-Data-of-2019.20.-1.pdf “ITC to inject $9 million to promote export of pashmina, coffee”, My Republica, 1 March 2020 https://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.

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news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm “Trade set to plunge as COVID-19 pandemic upends global economy”, World Trade Organization https://www.wto.org/english/

news_e/pres20_e/pr855_e.htm Krishana Prasain, “Nepal's palm oil exports could suffer as India suspends import licences”, The Kathmandu Post, 14 May 2020

https://tkpo.st/2WtibCF Arjun Bahadur Kandel, “Impact of COVID 19 on International Trade of Nepal: Transactional and Operational Issues of Banks”, 15 May 2020 https://english.aarthiknews.com/impact-of-COVID-19- on-international-trade-of-nepal-transactional-and-operational-issuesof-banks 177. 178. 179. 180. 181. 182. 183. 184. 185. 186. 187. 188. 189. 190. 191. 192. https://mof.gov.np/uploads/document/file/%E0%A4%AC%E0%A4%9C %E0%A5%87%E0%A4%9F_%E0%A4%B5%E0%A4%95%E0%A5%8D %E0%A4%A4%E0%A4%B5%E0%A5%8D%E0%A4%AF_%E0%A5%A

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dcr_2019_20200304043803.pdf Shrestha, Prithvi Man. “Foreign aid to Nepal could go down due to COVID-19 pandemic, experts and stakeholders say”, The Kathmandu Post, 1 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps:// kathmandupost.com/national/2020/04/01/foreign-aid-to-nepal-could

go-down-due-to-covid-19-pandemic-experts-and-stakeholders-say Shrestha, Prithvi Man. “Nepal seeks additional funding from donors as revenue shrinks amid Covid-19 crisis”, The Kathmandu Post, 15 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/ national/2020/04/15/nepal-seeks-additional-funding-from-donors-as

revenue-shrinks-amid-covid-19-crisis Shrestha, Prithvi Man. “Nepal seeks additional funding from donors as revenue shrinks amid Covid-19 crisis”, The Kathmandu Post, 15 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/ national/2020/04/15/nepal-seeks-additional-funding-from-donors-as

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worth-45-3-million-rupees/ “Coronavirus- India gifts 23 tonnes of essential medicines to Nepal”, The Hindu, 22 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://www.thehindu.com/ news/national/coronavirus-india-gifts-23-tonnes-of-essential-medicines

to-nepal/article31406850.ece “India gifts 23 tonnes of essential medicines to Nepal to fight Covid-19”, The Kathmandu Post, 22 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/national/2020/04/22/india-gifts-23-tonnes

of-essential-medicines-to-nepal-to-fight-covid-19 “UK provides 802,000 grant to strengthen Nepal’s response to COVID-19”, myRepublica, 13 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps:// myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/uk-provides-ps802-000-grant

to-strengthen-nepal-s-response-to-covid-19/ “European Union offers NPR 9.8 billion aid package to Nepal”, The Kathmandu Post, 27 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps:// kathmandupost.com/money/2020/04/27/european-union-offers-rs-9-

8-billion-aid-package-to-nepal “German support to fight against COVID-19”, myRepublica, 21 March 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/

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com/money/2020/05/07/nepal-gets-214-million-disbursement-from-imf “IMF approves USD 214 million to Nepal to address COVID-19 pandemic”, CNBC TV, 7 May 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://www. cnbctv18.com/economy/imf-approves-usd-214-million-to-nepal-toaddress-covid-19-pandemic-5864971.htm

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2019-20-highlights-key-announcements/ Shrestha, Prithvi Man. “Federal government faces a revenue deficit of Rs 90 billion in the first half”, The Kathmandu Post, 19 January 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/money/2020/01/19/ federal-government-faces-a-revenue-deficit-of-rs-90-billion-in-the-first

half Khanal, Rajesh. “Government lowers budget numbers but claims it will meet growth target”, myRepublica, 13 February 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://myrepublica.nagariknetwork.com/news/government

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Nepal”, Institute for Integrated Development Studies, 2020. “Notice of Suspension of Labor Permit”, Department of Foreign Employment , Ministry of Labor, Employment and Social Security, 13 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttp://www.dofe.gov.np/DetailPage.

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update-202004.pdf “Nepal: Macroeconomic Update”, Asian Development Bank, Volume 8, No.1, April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://www.adb.org/ sites/default/files/institutional-document/577946/nepal-macroeconomic

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aspx/id/136/lan/ne-NP Prasain, Sangam and Shrestha, Prithvi Man. “Nepal stands to lose NPR 145 billion in remittance this year”, The Kathmandu Post, 24 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/ money/2020/04/24/nepal-stands-to-lose-rs145-billion-in-remittance

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from-abroad Adhikari, Deepak. “Coronavirus in Nepal: Laborers returning home allege bias in hospitals”, Asia Pacific, 9 April 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/coronavirus-in-nepal-laborers

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repatriation-of-migrant-workers Ghimire, Binod. “The government has not followed most of the Supreme Court’s 23 rulings related to the pandemic”, The Kathmandu Post, 26 June 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/ national/2020/06/26/the-government-has-not-followed-most-of-the

supreme-court-s-23-rulings-related-to-the-pandemic Prasain, Sangam and Mandal, Chandan Kumar. “Authorities plan to rescue Nepalis stranded abroad. But no one knows who will pay for it”, The Kathmandu Post, 7 June 2020. Retrieved fromhttps:// kathmandupost.com/national/2020/06/07/authorities-plan-to-rescue

nepalis-stranded-abroad-but-no-one-knows-who-will-pay-for-it Prasain, Sangam and Mandal, Chandan Kumar. “Authorities plan to rescue Nepalis stranded abroad. But no one knows who will pay for it”, The Kathmandu Post, 7 June 2020. Retrieved fromhttps:// kathmandupost.com/national/2020/06/07/authorities-plan-to-rescue

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warns Mandal, Chandan Kumar. “Government underestimates number of workers awaiting repatriation, say experts”, The Kathmandu Post, 5 June 2020. Retrieved fromhttps://kathmandupost.com/ national/2020/06/05/government-underestimates-number-of-workers

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fromhttps://www.policyforum.net/a-crisis-with-opportunity-for-nepal/ Nepal Stock Exchange, December 2019 and CDS and Clearing Limited, June 2020

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Capital Market

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Energy

CAPITAL MARKET CAPITAL MARKET

Table 8 Key Indicators

NEPSE Index

Sub-Indices

Commercial Bank

Development Bank Hydropower Finance

Non-Life Insurance

Others Hotels Microfinance Life Insurance Manufacturing & Processing

11 June, 2020

Figure 11 NEPSE Movement Index

Key Developments:

Confusion on Capital Gain Tax

Investors ‘bank account’ and ‘DEMAT account’ to be connected

SEBON urges Nepal Rastra Bank to make few new provisions to create favorable environment for

ENDNOTES ENDNOTES

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NEF BROADLY WORKS UNDER THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

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