Coruption Balkan

in partnership with the

Quality of governance –> trust  corruption in the Balkans – breaking the cycle?

Robert Manchin

Assessing changes, measuring policy impacts in context:

The Gallup Balkan Monitor • Detailed, annual nationallyrepresentative surveys • Last one in October 2009, 2010 wave is in the field • Covering regions and territories • Detailed results and data accessible with data visualization tools at

www.balkan-monitor.eu

2

Corruption is not only costly, but paralyses a nation’s institutions… New data and analysis goes well beyond that: • ONLY perceived integrity of a government is a reliable predictor of citizens’ psychological wellbeing (N=132 countries, Gallup World Poll) if controlled for other variables • This also explains regional differences – functioning public administration – after achieving nation-state can deliver perceived QoL • Citizens that trust their governments feel much less affected by the crisis, regardless of actual material situation • Equity / feeling of fair deals / sharing the benefits – vs. being left behind Copyright © 2010 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.

3

Corruption is not a rare phenomenon ... BUT • magnitude and impact on the daily life of the citizens makes the difference • professionalizing touch points • transforming PA into a service culture forcing justice system changes cleaning up education, etc.

4

Corruption weighs heavy on Balkan minds Unemployment

70

Standard of living

37

30

Corruption Global economic crisis

15

Economy

14

Crime

12

Politicians lacking integrity

8

Electricity

7

Education

7

Public health

7

What are the most important problems facing [COUNTRY] today?

Base: respondents in all Western Balkan countries, open-ended question with multiple responses, 2009 survey

6

More important then actual living standards in Croatia, Albania and Kosovo

Unemployment

Standard of living

88

What are the most important problems facing [COUNTRY] today? (2009)

Corruption

82 69 58

54 38

42 32

26

Albania

39

21

BiH

70

68 55

47

42 32 20

Croatia

Macedonia Montenegro

36

29 17

Serbia

Kosovo

7

Results of actions and programs? Or real change?

Perception: government corruption is growing % yes 2006

87

Is corruption widespread throughout the government in (Country), or not?

%yes 2009

81

89

84

74

77

83 71

84 69

73

50

Croatia

Serbia

BiH

Kosovo

49

Macedonia Montenegro Albania

8

Perception levels in the wider region are similar (Romania) or even higher (Greece) Is corruption widespread throughout the government in (Country), or not? % yes, Source: Gallup World Poll 2009

87 79 91

76

9

Business corruption is seen in a similar light Is corruption widespread within businesses in [COUNTRY], or not? % yes 2006

86

92

%yes 2009

86

91

83

90

82

72

Croatia

Serbia

BiH

Kosovo

79 68

69

Macedonia Montenegro

66

67

Albania

10

Again: Business corruption perception levels in the wider region are similar or even higher Is corruption widespread within businesses in [COUNTRY], or not? % yes, Source: Gallup World Poll 2009

82 78 84

82

11

In BiH, Croatia and Serbia most people see corruption on the rise compared to recent past Do you think the level of corruption in this country is lower, about the same, or higher than it was 5 years ago? (2009) Level is lower

26

42

25 Macedonia

Level is about the same

29

42

Level is higher

23

28

44

48

DK/NA

49

52

37

35

55 28

20

15

11

8

7

6

Albania

Montenegro

Kosovo

Serbia

Croatia

Bosnia and Herzegovina

12

Hi-jacked states? Almost everyone feels affected by organised crime in Pristina & BiH Federation

25

Does the organised crime in [COUNTRY] affect you personally? 78

% ‘yes it affects me occasionally’ and ‘yes, it affects me in daily life’

86

17

13

Rates of reported incidents of petty corruption not so different from life in neighbouring countries Sometimes people have to give a bribe or a present in order to solve their problems. In the last 12 months, were you, personally, faced with this kind of situation, or not?

% yes

Source: Gallup World Poll, Balkan Monitor 2009

52 36

20

19

18

15

14

13

8

14

Rates of reported incidents of petty corruption vary strongly: 5% in Slavonia, 59% in Southern Albania

5

29 35

Sometimes people have to give a bribe or a present in order to solve their problems. In the last 12 months, were you, personally, faced with this kind of situation, or not ? % yes

59

15

Albanian civil servants perceived as most likely to be demanding bribes During the past one year, has any government official or a civil servant, for instance a customs officer, police officer or inspector in [COUNTRY], asked you or expected you to pay a bribe for his service?

41

Yes

8

Albania

BIH

6

7

Macedonia Montenegro

8

Serbia

12

Kosovo

16

Acceptance of petty corruption on the rise? Or has the absence of healthcare reform led to a convenient business model?

In order to get better care in a hospital is it acceptable to use relations (friends', relatives' help)? % yes

52

47 50

53

39 45

43

08 09

WB Total

Serbia

Albania

BIH

Montenegro

28

43

44 42

39

32 37

08 09

Croatia

Macedonia

Kosovo

24

17

Trust in the legal system is practically non-existent: Improvement in Croatia, with smaller changes elsewhere

A lot

In [COUNTRY], do you have confidence in courts and the judiciary?

Some

41 41

5

33

4

27 36 20 5

29 36

40

12

8

12 10

31

40

37

30 4

51

13

5

19 17

21 21

20082009

Serbia

Croatia

Macedonia

Albania

BIH

Montenegro

Kosovo

18

Trust in government remains lowâ&#x20AC;Ś

A lot

In [COUNTRY], do you have confidence in the national government?

Some

35

44 32

42

5

31

43

38

33

41

29 28

27

22

12

9

13

22

25 16

25

2008 2009

4 3 2008 2009

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Albania

Kosovo

BIH

4

23

19

5

6

2008 2009 Croatia

19

Confidence in the EU is not much higher in most Western Balkan countriesâ&#x20AC;Ś

In [COUNTRY], do you have confidence in the EU institutions? A lot

Some

40

41 35 34

6

29

36 40

38

18

39

28

27

21 18

31 36

43 48

33

38

32 9

7

4

35 6

20082009

Serbia

Montenegro

Macedonia

Albania

Kosovo

BIH

Croatia

20

…but there’s hope that change might come from EU integration

What do you think that EU accession would bring to [COUNTRY] - Less corruption?

% yes

45

51

Croatia

Serbia

65

68

Bosnia and Montenegro Herzegovina

71

77

Macedonia

Albania

84

Kosovo

21

What people really trust inâ&#x20AC;Ś GO Serbia GO!

Compared to other countries in Europe, is a talent for sports a strength or a weakness of [COUNTRY]? (2009)

% strength Albania Kosovo Macedonia

46 49 58

BIH

75

Montenegro

75

Croatia

88

93

Serbia WB Total

69

22

Questions?

manchin@gallup-europe.be

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