Innovation can help us through the climate crisis

The choices we make in the next decade will determine our future

According to reports from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s sixth assessment cycle, the world is currently under-prepared for the coming impacts of climate change, particularly beyond 1.5°C global warming. If we are to address the climate crisis, transformative mitigation and adaptation measures are needed.

Average annual greenhouse gas emissions were at their highest level in human history between 20102019.2 Based on current projections, limiting warming to 1.5°C is beyond our reach unless there are immediate and deep emission reductions across all sectors. More than three billion people already live in hotspots of high vulnerability.3 Increases in temperatures as well as the frequency and severity of extreme events such as droughts, floods, wildfires, crop failure and continued sea level rise have already pushed many ecosystems, people and infrastructure to the limits of their adaptive capacity. While the level of climate vulnerability varies across regions, nowhere is untouched by the impacts of climate change, which are even more widespread and disruptive than the IPCC predicted 20 years ago. We need urgent, accelerated and ambitious action in adaptation efforts alongside significant cuts in greenhouse gas emissions across all sectors. Globally, we are starting to see evidence of change and ambition to change. Zero emissions targets have been adopted by at least 826 cities, 103 regions and 1,565 companies across all continents.4 Some countries have already achieved a steady decrease in emissions consistent with limiting warming to 2°C, and many cities and countries have designed and implemented adaptation plans to address things like food production, water conservation and extreme weather. The IPCC has also identified options in every sector which could at least halve emissions by 2030. We think that focusing innovation around a diverse set of outcome-focused challenges can turbocharge innovation to deliver on these ambitions.

2. H. Ritchie et al., CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Our World in Data, (2020). 3. H.-O. Pörtner et al., Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, IPCC (2022). 4. T. Day et al. Navigating the nuances of net-zero targets, NewClimate Institute & Data-

Driven EnviroLab, (2020).

Water and food

Climate change constitutes a major barrier to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). For example, nearly two thirds of the world’s population currently experiences severe water scarcity at some point in the year, in part due to climate change, and is projected to get much worse.5 At the same time, both flooding and drought risks are increasing exponentially, and the associated impacts will disproportionately affect places with low adaptation capacity.

Combined with the escalation in other climate hazards, progress on food security and nutrition (SDG 2), is undermined. Climate change is already affecting crop yields through changes in temperature, precipitation patterns and extreme weather events, as well as risks to food safety during transport and storage.6

We need to ensure secure food systems for the growing global population, but unfortunately our industrialised food systems are also a major contributor to climate change. With current farming practices, agriculture and land use change account for over a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions.7 Rapid innovation for a dramatic overhaul in the way we grow food is needed to reduce emissions from agriculture, whilst maintaining production in a changing climate. Innovation enabled the world to produce and distribute food at scale; now we need to mobilise this same innovation and ingenuity to not only grow the food we need but reduce our food systems’ impact on the planet.

With the right approach, agriculture and land use practices can not only reduce the sector’s climate impacts but can go even further, allowing us to harness the full potential of nature based systems to act as carbon sinks and counteract the emissions via photosynthesis.8 If we can build on our rich datasets about land use and the environment, and then innovate and adapt agricultural processes accordingly, our food systems can go from being a major source of emissions, to one of our most valuable ways to counteract it.

5. M. Mekonnen et al. Four billion people facing severe water scarcity, Science Advances, 2, 2 (2016). 6. IPCC Working Group (WG) II, Special report on climate change and land: Food Security,

IPCC (2019). 7. D. Laborde et al., Agricultural subsidies and global greenhouse gas emissions, Nature

Communications, 12, 2601 (2021). 8. Z. Sha et al. The global carbon sink potential of terrestrial vegetation can be increased substantially by optimal land management, Earth and Environment Communications, 3, 8 (2022).

Cities represent one of humanity’s greatest defences against the climate crisis: they are centres of innovation and knowledge-sharing and models for breakthrough technology, whilst being our global economic engines. Systematically changing how we build and run our cities will have immense global impact.

However, urban environments are particularly vulnerable to climate change, facing risks from extreme weather events and natural disasters, grappling with rising temperatures, ageing infrastructure, and buildings not suited for changing conditions. For example, more than a billion people living in cities and settlements in lowlying coastal areas will be at risk of coastal-specific climate hazards by 2050.9 Moreover, cities are contending with significant social and economic inequalities that are only compounded by the climate crisis.

By mid-century, roughly two thirds of the world’s population will be living in urban areas,10 but current building practices are far too carbon intensive to support net zero ambitions. The building sector alone (including constructing and operating buildings) accounts for nearly 40% of global emissions,11 meaning we must adapt building practices to future climate conditions while ensuring wellbeing for all. Further, most future urban population growth will occur in rapidly growing low- and middleincome countries, where, if we don’t institute new practices, emissions will increase exponentially and people will be at even greater risk of climate vulnerabilities. Transport contributes another 16% of global emissions,12 the majority of which is generated from road vehicles, and that figure is rising rapidly in low- and middle-income countries. We urgently need to explore and scale better ways to build homes and businesses and improve how people and goods move.

Rapid industrialisation and urbanisation have driven global innovation and economic growth. Now, we need to tap into humanity’s remarkable creativity and ingenuity to develop, test and rapidly scale ways to transform how we live. Cities urgently need solutions that will help them to adapt to climate change and build climate resilience alongside equitable growth.

9. H.-O. Pörtner et al., Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability, IPCC (2022). 10. Department of Economic and Social Affairs Population Division, World urbanisation prospects: 2018 revision, United Nations (2018). 11. I. Hamilton et al., Global status report for buildings and construction: Towards a

Zero-emission, Efficient and Resilient Buildings and Construction Sector, UN Environment

Programme, (2021). 12. H. Ritchie et al., CO₂ and Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Our World in Data, (2020). 13. H. Lee, Energy is at the heart of the solution to the climate challenge, IPCC Newsroom (2020).

Energy

The global energy system is the largest source of CO2 emissions, accounting for over two-thirds of global greenhouse gas emissions.13 The acceleration of clean energy technologies is encouraging but massive system transformation and scaling is required to achieve net zero, particularly in sectors where carbon is entrenched such as transport and heavy industries. Increased warming will affect low-

The scale and scope of mitigation and adaptation actions have increased worldwide. This good news is tempered by the fact that progress is uneven and there are still large gaps between work underway and what is needed to cope with the challenges facing us. Current adaptations typically prioritise immediate and near-term risks rather than the transformational action we need. Additionally, as the world warms, current adaptation measures will become less effective. carbon energy creation, storage and distribution systems,14 and the energy transition will alter investment patterns and create new markets and opportunities.

The industrial revolution was fuelled by the rapid development of fossil fuel energy systems that resulted in monumental innovation from modern health care to transport, but it also led to the challenges we now face. We now need that same spirit of innovation to transform our energy systems: we urgently need to both source new energy supplies, and create energy systems that are self-sufficient and resilient to climate impacts. Importantly, we need to develop and encourage not just breakthrough technology, but also new clean energy generation and trading systems that are equitable and sustainable.

Call to action

The IPCC has found that many ecosystems are already near or beyond their hard adaptation limits and the people who rely on these systems are pushing past their soft adaptation limits. If temperatures exceed 2°C of warming, meaningful adaptation to climate change will become impossible in some regions of the world.

To realise the potential of the critical decade ahead of us, bold and decisive action is needed

Where proven solutions exist they must be enabled to scale. Where such solutions do not exist, funders must galvanise innovators to action to create the urgently needed breakthrough technologies.

across all fronts. Such wholesale transformation is challenging and threatened by conflicting priorities within the system, which risk leading to greenwashing and maladaptation, where adaptation interventions lead to increased vulnerabilities. For funders, the challenge is how to deploy their resources so that they are meaningfully contributing to transformational change while minimising the risk of missed opportunities and missteps.

14. R. Entriken and R. Lordan, Impacts of extreme events on transmission and distribution systems, IEEE Power and Energy Society General Meeting, (2012).