Improving Urban Mobility Through Technological Advance of Motor Vehicles

Page 1

Improving Urban Mobility Through Technological Advance of Motor Vehicles Clifford Winston Searle Freedom Trust Senior Fellow Brookings Institution* Clifford Winston has been with Brookings since 1984. He is an applied microeconomist who specializes in the analysis of industrial organization, regulation, and transportation. Winston has also been co-editor of the annual microeconomics edition of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity. Prior to his fellowship at Brookings, he was an Associate Professor in the Transportation Systems Division of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Department of Civil Engineering. *This paper synthesizes material in Winston (2013) and Winston and Mannering (2014).

Abstract: Traffic fatalities in the U.S. claim over 30,000 lives annually and congestion continues to cost the nation U.S. $100 billion a year. There is a growing urgency for solutions to be implemented, but effective options such as improved highway pricing are often impeded by political and institutional factors. Technologies such as the driverless car, which may be common sight by 2025, could also go a long way in relieving pressure on the nation’s highways.

Introduction

delays and expenditures on fuel, at more than $100 billion.

Despite frustratingly frequent

The nation’s road system is vital to U.S.

lane closures for road repairs, federal and

urban areas.

Roughly 75 percent of goods,

state highway agencies’ expenditures cannot

based on value, are transported on roads by

seem to outpace the rate of road-infrastructure

truck, 93 percent of workers’ commutes are

deterioration. Finally, although highway safety

on roads by private automobiles and public

has improved during the past few decades,

buses, and by far the largest share of non-

because of greater enforcement of drunken driving

work and pleasure trips are taken by road.

laws, improvements in vehicle safety, and other factors, traffic fatalities are still one of the leading

Unfortunately, the arteries are clogged: the

causes of non-disease deaths in the United States,

benefits that commuters, families, truckers, and

exceeding more than 30,000 lives annually.

shippers receive from the road system have been increasingly compromised by growing

Economists

have

repeatedly

pointed

out

congestion, vehicle damage, and accident

that policymakers could address highway

costs. The Texas Transportation Institute’s latest

inefficiencies by implementing efficient road

Urban Mobility Report puts the annual cost of

pricing for cars and trucks and by making

congestion to the nation, including both travel

efficient investments based on cost-benefit

This article is part of a series about the future of urban mobility prepared for Cities on the Move, a one-day event organized by the New Cities Foundation and hosted by Google on March 6th, 2014 in Mountain View, California. 1


analyses. Highway authorities could also

Certain stakeholders pressure members of

implement recent technological innovations

Congress and regulatory officials to oppose

to improve highway performance. However,

efficient reforms. For example, the American

efficient reforms are impeded by institutional

Automobile Association and the American

and political factors and by policymakers’

Trucking

unsustainable

congestion

but

nonetheless

preferred

Association tolls

and

oppose

efficient

pavement

charges

strategy to increase spending to build their

because they may cause some of their members

way out of congestion and to improve the

to pay more for using the road system, while

condition of highways and motorists’ safety.

labor unions oppose removing Davis-Bacon regulations because thousands of construction

Fortunately, the private sector is introducing new

technological

innovations

in

workers

would

see

their

wages

fall1.

motor

vehicles, especially the driverless car, which

Policymakers

could

improve

will greatly improve the speed, reliability,

pricing, investment, operations, and safety

and safety of highway travel for all motorists.

by expeditiously implementing technologies developed by the private sector.

highway

New

A Brief Overview of Highway

general purpose technologies include global

Inefficiencies

positioning system (GPS) satellite navigation services that, among other things, collect

Substantial

economic

developed

under

have

information about motorists, such as their

and

location, speed, and alternative routings for

infrastructure

their journeys; Bluetooth signals that can be

because public policies have not been guided

detected to monitor the speed of cars and

by basic economic principles: prices do not

trucks through the road system in real time in

reflect social marginal costs, especially cars’

order to assist drivers’ route choice decisions

and trucks’ contributions to congestion and

and to adjust traffic signal timing; and mobile

delays and trucks’ contribution to pavement

software applications (apps) and websites that

damage; road investments are not based

provide motorists with real-time information

on cost-benefit analysis and have failed to

on traffic speeds and volumes, conditions on

maximize net benefits; and production costs

alternate routes, and available parking spaces.

are inflated by regulations. In addition,

Motorists are becoming increasingly aware

Congress broadly apportions federal highway

of the benefits of GPS services and the share

funds to states, instead of allocating those

of cars on the road that are equipped with

funds efficiently to specific locales to alleviate

those services is expected to climb from 10

the country’s most congested highways.

percent as of 2013 to 50 percent by 2015.

management

of

inefficiencies

public

ownership

highway

1. Davis-Bacon regulations stipulate that “prevailing wages”—interpreted in practice as “union wages”—be paid on any construction project receiving federal funds. The cost to taxpayers has been substantial. 2


Specific highway and vehicle technologies

of privatization.

However, given that no

include Weigh-in-Motion capabilities, which

general consensus about the social desirability

provide real-time information about truck weight

of highway privatization has developed,

and axle configurations that can be used by

it would be useful for policymakers, in

highway officials to set efficient pavement-wear

collaboration

charges and efficient enforcement for safety;

and users, to carefully design and execute

adjustable lane technologies, which allow

experiments to obtain evidence on its effects

variations in the number and width of lanes

before

with

considering

scholars,

practitioners,

nationwide

adoption.

in response to real-time traffic flows; improved road construction and design technologies

Private Sector Innovations in Motor

to increase pavement life and to strengthen

Vehicles

roads and bridges; and photo-enforcement technologies to monitor vehicles’ speeds to

Regardless of the state of their infrastructure,

improve traffic flow, capacity, and safety.

motor

vehicles’

has improved.

safety

and

performance

Automakers have continued

Because the Federal Highway Administration

to improve vehicle engines, designs, and

is biased toward the status quo in managing

structural strength, and have installed seat-

and

belts, anti-lock brakes, air bags, and the like.

operating

transportation

the

system,

nation’s it

has

highway failed

to

Recent safety innovations include electronic

implement those technologies in a timely

stability control, warning and emergency

manner. FHWA may also lack the expertise

braking systems, speed alerts, and mirrors with

to ensure that technologies to improve the

blind spot warnings, which will also increase

highway system are implemented effectively

road capacity by enabling vehicles to drive

and efficiently. Indeed, its budget allocates

closer together without compromising speed.

only a small amount of funds for research and development to improve highways. Like other

The recent revelation of “autonomous vehicles”

agencies, FHWA may be risk-averse and want

raises the possibility of an entirely new era

to avoid the mistakes and well-publicized

of highway transportation.

delays in implementing technology that, for

driverless cars and trucks do a human driver’s

example, have tarnished the Federal Aviation

normal job and much more. Driverless cars

Administration’s reputation to manage air traffic

are operated by computers that obtain

control effectively. Finally, FHWA may not stand

information from an array of sensors on the

to gain much from technology that reduces the

surrounding road conditions, including the

cost of building and maintaining highways if

location, speed, and trajectories of other

those savings lead to reductions in its budget.

cars.

The absence of evidence that extensive and

process information many times faster than the

costly government failure in highway policy

human mind can process it. By gathering and

is likely to be corrected by efficient reforms in

reacting immediately to real-time information,

the near future motivates serious consideration

and by eliminating concerns about risky human

Autonomous or

The on-board computers gather and

3


behavior, such as distracted and impaired

Empirical estimates of their benefits are sparse

driving, the technology has the potential to

but one study shows that they are highly

prevent collisions and greatly reduce highway

dependent on the speed of adoption and

fatalities, injuries, vehicle damage, and costly

extent of market penetration. Accounting for

insurance.

And it can significantly reduce

the reduction in fatalities and injuries, less

delays and improve travel-time reliability

vehicle damage, and savings in travel time,

by creating a smoother traffic flow and by

fuel, and parking costs, even a modest 10%

routing and, when necessary, rerouting drivers

penetration of driverless cars would generate

who have programmed their destinations.

annual benefits of $40 billion.

benefits amount to an eye-popping $200

Driverless trucks are also in the developmental

billion if market penetration reaches 50%.

Annual

stage. For example, dozens of such trucks are being used to haul materials in an iron-ore mine

Final Comments

in Australia and at other locations away from public thoroughfares. In addition to contributing

Driverless vehicles are inevitable and will

to improved traffic flows and motorists’ safety,

generate significant improvements in road travel

driverless trucks could benefit industry and

that certainly compensate for policymakers’

ultimately consumers by substantially reducing

failure to reform their policies to provide such

labor costs, insurance, and operating costs.

improvements. The major obstacle to motorists and firms from adopting driverless vehicles as

Thus

far,

states—including

soon as possible is whether the government

Nevada—have

will take prudent and expeditious approaches

legalized the testing of driverless cars, and

to help resolve important questions about

several other states are considering doing the

assigning liability in the event of an accident, the

same. Competition among automakers and

availability of insurance, and safety regulation.

other firms to develop the best technology

The National Highway and Traffic Safety

is already underway.

Google has logged

Administration (NHTSA), which is responsible

nearly 500,000 miles testing its version of

for regulating automobile safety, has issued

a driverless car; General Motors is working

cautious recommendations about driverless

on a model with researchers at Carnegie

cars. That may be appropriate at this stage of

Mellon University; Audi, BMW, Toyota, and

the vehicle’s development, but NHTSA should

Volvo have demonstrated their driverless

also be cautious about sharing FHWA’s legacy

models; and Nissan has claimed that it will

of not promoting timely innovation in highway

offer a full line of driverless cars in the next

travel that could greatly benefit the public.

California,

seven

U.S.

Florida,

and

decade. In short, some, admittedly optimistic, forecasts indicate that driverless cars could be a common sight on U.S. roads by 2025.

4


References Winston, Clifford. 2013. “On the Performance of the U.S. Transportation System: Caution Ahead,” Journal of Economic Literature, volume 51(3), pp. 773-824. Winston, Clifford and Fred Mannering. 2014. “Implementing Technology to Improve Public Highway Performance: A Leapfrog Technology from the Private Sector is Going to be Necessary,” Economics of Transportation, forthcoming.

5


February 2014 © 2014 New Cities Foundation www.newcitiesfoundation.org RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS Please cite the work as follows: Clifford Winston (2014), “Improving Urban Mobility Through Technological Advance of Motor Vehicles ” in Cities on the Move, New Cities Foundation, Geneva. If you create a translation of this work, please add the following disclaimer along with the attribution: “This translation was not created by the New Cities Foundation and should not be considered an official New Cities Foundation translation. The New Cities Foundation shall not be liable for any content or error in this translation.” All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed to the New Cities Foundation: contact@newcitiesfoundation.org. Design and Layout: Rachel Dare.

6


Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.