Manchester Monitor December 2014 Autumn Statement boost for Greater Manchester
ÂŁ1.3bn for Greater Manchester
Unemployment still falling Airport passenger numbers on the rise Apartment rents increasing Assault attendance figures lowest since records began www.neweconomymanchester.com research@neweconomymanchester.com
Monitor Focus Autumn Statement boost for Greater Manchester Against the backdrop of more austerity for the public sector, Greater Manchester (GM) secured £1.3billion from the Autumn Statement, which confirmed GM’s devolution deal, and outlined a number of key investments in transport, culture, and science and innovation which support the creation of what George Osborne has dubbed a ‘Northern Powerhouse’ for the UK economy. The funding announcements included £235million earmarked for a new Sir Henry Royce Institute for advanced materials research, which will give a boost to science and innovation in the city, and £78million to create the Factory theatre and exhibition centre on the former ITV site in Manchester city centre. The Autumn Statement announcements will help support future growth in GM and results from the latest release of the GM Forecasting Model (GMFM) suggest that around 109,000 new jobs will be created in the conurbation over the next ten years. By 2024, around 1.5million people are expected to be working in GM, which would translate into growth of 7.8% over ten years and be worth an additional £17.3billion in economic output. The January edition of the Manchester Monitor will feature more detailed analysis of the GMFM data, looking at which sectors are forecast to make the most significant contributions to jobs and GVA growth. Switching to look at the regular data on the labour market, the latest unemployment figures from the Department for Work and Pensions show further reductions in the number of people claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in GM. Current JSA data show that around 41,800 people – or 2.4% of the working age population – were claiming JSA in GM in October 2014. This represents a decrease of 27,400 (39.6%) when compared with the figure 12 months previously. As noted in last month’s Manchester Monitor, JSA figures must now be analysed in conjunction with data on the number of people claiming Universal Credit (UC). The combined estimate for the number of people claiming JSA or UC in GM in October 2014 is 49,800, equating to an annual decline of 30.0%. This is less than the 39.6% decline for JSA claimants, although it still represents a significant fall over 12 months and highlights that opportunities for people to re-enter the labour market are increasing. The ongoing improvements in the labour market are also evident at a national level, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revising their original March forecast and it is now expecting an additional 400,000 jobs to be created nationally over the course of 2014. It also projects that an additional 1.8m private sector jobs will be created in the UK economy by 2020.
1 | Manchester Monitor – December 2014
Manchester Airport handled more than 2.3million passengers in September 2014, 108,000 (4.9%) higher than 12 months previously. If recent trends continue, the Airport could soon see annual passenger numbers grow to over 22 million, a figure not achieved since 2007. In more good news, November saw the Airport awarded the title of ‘UK Airport of the Year’ by British Air Transport Association airlines, winning the category for best airport with passengers of more than six million a year. The wider visitor economy is also performing well, with hotel occupancy rates recorded at 83.8% for GM and 84.5% for Manchester city centre for October 2014. The conurbation experienced a 1.3% point increase in occupancy on an annual basis, while hotel occupancy in Manchester city centre was 1.7% points higher than in October 2013. November is expected to have been a good month for visitors as well, supported by the first weekend of the Christmas markets which are estimated to have attracted 200,000 people into the city centre. Data on the property rental market sourced from GM estate agents show that average rents for apartments in GM have grown year-on-year. The cost of renting a 2-bed apartment in GM now stands at £690 per calendar month (pcm), for example – up by 1.1% annually. The housing rental market has seen a slightly different trend, with the cost of 3 and 4 bed properties declining on an annual basis – to £668 and £1,037 pcm respectively. In terms of house prices, the average property in GM cost £108,500 in October 2014 according to the Land Registry, up slightly on the previous month’s figure of £108,000. On an annual basis, the average cost of a property in GM is 5.2% (£5,400) higher than it was in October 2014. This means that year-on-year prices in GM have now risen for 12 consecutive months. On the crime front, the latest data from GM Police show an increase of 6.7% (12,000) in the number of reported crimes in the year ending October 2014, up to 190,900 reported offences. Within this total, victim-based crimes (stealing, criminal damage & arson, violence and sexual offences) saw 172,100 cases recorded over the same period, representing an annual increase of 6.9%. The latest figures from GM Fire & Rescue show a 25.4% reduction in the total volume of deliberate fires in GM for the 12 months to October 2014. Baseline data for the 12 months ending September 2014 show that around 12,400 people were treated for assault related injuries over the last in GM hospitals, a decrease of 4.9% on the figures from the previous year. In actual terms, this is the lowest rolling figure since records began five years ago.
Monitor Dashboard Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) claimants
Airport Passengers
39.6%
4.9%
since last year
Employment
since September 2013
Hotel Occupancy
1.3%pts
109,000
since October 2013
new jobs forecast to be created over next ten years
House Prices
Crime
5.2%
since October 2013
6.7%
since October 2013
Manchester Monitor – December 2014 | 2
People Monitor Unemployment still falling The latest figures show that 41,800 people were claiming Jobseeker’s Allowance (JSA) in Greater Manchester (GM) in October 2014 – a decrease of 2,800 (6.3%) when compared with the figure for September 2014 of 44,600. On an annual basis the number of JSA claimants in GM is 27,400 (39.6%) lower than in October 2013. JSA numbers are increasingly being affected by the introduction of Universal Credit (UC), which is discussed in detail below.
JSA Claimants Around 2.4% of the resident working age population in GM were claiming JSA in October. This rate remains slightly higher than in the North West (2.2%) and Great Britain (2.1%). The number of male JSA claimants in GM fell on a monthly basis by 6.5% (1,800) to 26,400, and similarly, female claimants fell by 6.0% (1,000) over the month to 15,400. On an annual basis both male and female claimants continue to decrease – down by 18,600 (41.4%) and 8,800 (36.3%) respectively. Long-term JSA claimants (6 months+) in GM in October 2014 were 19,200, representing an annual decline of 41.3% (13,495). This was above the regional (37.6%) and national falls (35.1%). Youth unemployment (JSA claimants aged 16-24) in GM fell on a monthly basis between September and October, decreasing by approximately 1,230 (12.1%) to 8,940. Universal Credit Data sourced from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) show that there were 8,500 people claiming UC in October 2014. These people are not included in JSA claimant count statistics, meaning that analysing the unemployment outlook based purely on trends in JSA claimants may look more flattering than it actually is. It is reasonable to assume that a high proportion of UC claimants – as many as 95% – would otherwise be claiming JSA in the absence of UC. This would add 8,000 people to the JSA figure for GM, giving a combined JSA/UC total of over 49,800.
On an annual basis, combined JSA/UC claimants fell by 30.0% from 71,200 to 49,800. This is less than the 39.6% decline for JSA claimants, although it still represents a significant fall over 12 months and highlights that opportunities for people to re-enter the labour market are increasing. The ongoing improvements in the labour market are evident at a national level, with the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) revising their original March forecast and it is now expecting an additional 400,000 jobs to be created over the course of 2014. It also projects that an additional 1.8million private sector jobs will be created in the UK economy by 2020. Vacancies Data There were over 18,200 vacancies in GM in October 2014. Just under two-thirds of GM based-vacancies were situated in Manchester (62.6% or 11,400), followed by Stockport (7.0% or 1,200) and Bolton (5.5% or 1,000). The highest proportion of vacancies (32.5%) in October 2014 was in professional occupations – 5,900 jobs. Associate professional & technical roles (21.9%, or 4,000) was the second largest occupation group, followed by administrative and secretarial occupations (10.3%, or 1,874). Only 5.6% were in elementary occupations. Skills cluster analysis reveals that the top three most sought after specific skills (after common skills) by GM employers for October 2014 were software and programming skills, marketng, and sales.
Jobseeker’s Allowance - Annual Change
Total Jobseeker’s Allowance Claimants in October 2014
41,809
Decreased by 39.6% year-on-year
Women
Men
Youth
Long-term
$36.3% $41.4% $50.0% $41.3% Source: Labour/Insight (Burning Glass Technologies)
1
3 | Manchester Monitor – December 2014
Business Monitor GM employment, 2004-24 (000s) 1,550
Forecast: 109,000 additional jobs, 2014-24
1,500
2024: 1,509 jobs
1,450
000’s
1,400
2014: 1,400 jobs
1,350 1,300 1,250 1,200 1,150
2004
2008
2012
2016
2020
2024
100,000+ new jobs in GM over next decade Results from the latest release of the GM Forecasting Model (GMFM) suggest that around 109,000 new jobs will be created in GM over the next ten years. GMFM is produced by Oxford Economics for New Economy on behalf of the ten GM local authorities. Employment Forecasts
Wages Data
Job growth of 109,000 in GM from 2014-24 would mean that employment in GM stands at just over 1.5million at the end of the period, translating into growth of 7.8%. This would be above the North West and UK increases of 6.1% and 7.0% respectively.
The Office for National statistics recently released the 2014 results from the Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings, providing data for both residence-based and workplacebased wages.
At a district level, Manchester is forecast to account for the highest number of additional jobs in absolute terms from 2014-24 at 43,000, followed by Salford at 17,000. In addition to future job estimates, GMFM provides forecasts on trends in gross value added (GVA, a proxy for economic output). For GM as a whole, GVA is expected to increase from £54.8billion in 2014 to £72.2billion in 2024 – a rise of £17.3billion, or 31.6%.
The 2014 gross median annual wage for people working in GM is around £25,000, virtually in line with the 2013 salary. This is still below the corresponding figure in 2014 for the UK of £27,200, however. At a district level the highest workplace-based annual wage is in Manchester at £28,300. The 2014 gross median annual wage for people living in GM is also around £25,000, with no change on 2013. The highest residence-based salary is in Trafford at £30,000 per annum, followed by Stockport at £28,000.
The January edition of the Manchester Monitor will feature more detailed analysis of the GMFM data, looking at which sectors are forecast to make the most significant contributions to jobs and GVA growth.
Manchester Monitor – December 2014 | 4
Place Monitor Airport passenger numbers on the rise The latest monthly airport data from the Civil Aviation Authority show passenger numbers are continuing to grow. Hotel occupancy rates are also performing well and 2014 could be the strongest performing year to date if the trend for JanuaryOctober occupancy levels is repeated in the final two months of the year. Airport Passenger Numbers
Hotel Occupancy
Manchester Airport handled more than 2.3million passengers in September 2014, 108,000 (4.9%) higher than 12 months previously. The annual growth was higher than that experienced by Birmingham (3.4%) and Heathrow (0.3%), while Stansted (14.0%) and Gatwick (7.7%) experienced slightly higher year-on-year rises in passenger numbers.
The average hotel occupancy rate in Manchester city centre was recorded at 84.5% in October 2014, up 1.7 percentage points from the same month last year. Weekend occupancy in the city centre averaged 88.3% during the month, a 3.6 percentage point decrease on the October 2014 figure of 91.9%. The weekday average occupancy in the city centre was 83.8%, up from 80.2% on the same month last year.
If recent trends continue, the Airport could soon see annual passenger numbers grow to over 22million, a figure not achieved since 2007.
For GM as a whole, average occupancy rates in October were 83.3%, a rise of 1.3 percentage points compared to 2013.
In more good news, November saw the Airport awarded the title of ‘UK Airport of the Year’ by British Air Transport Association airlines, winning the category for best airport with passengers of more than six million a year.
Key dates for hotel occupancy in the city centre during October were:
Growth in passenger numbers in 2015 is expected to be supported by the introduction of a number of new routes, which includes: • Ryanair announced in October that it will be extending its winter flying schedule from Manchester and a new service to Eindhoven, a previously unserved destination. • Flybe commencing a new year-round daily service to Amsterdam. • Saudia Airlines announced an additional service on its Manchester-Jeddah flights, increasing its offering from three to four flights per week on a Tuesday, Thursday, Saturday and Sunday.
Hotel occupancy (city centre)
84.5%
Hotel occupancy (GM)
(+1.7% pts)
(+1.3% pts)
83.3%
• 04 October – occupancy of 98% was achieved, when the National Cycling Centre hosted the UCI World Masters Track Championships. • 11 October – 98% occupancy was recorded, which coincided with Old Trafford Football Ground hosting the Rugby Super League Grand Final. • 21 October – an occupancy rate of 98% was reached when Lady Gaga performed at the Manchester Arena. • 25 October – 98% occupancy was achieved when Manchester Central hosted the World Taekwondo Grand Prix and Il Divo performed at Manchester Arena. November is expected to have been a good month for visitors as well, supported by the first weekend of the Christmas markets which are estimated to have attracted 200,000 people into the city centre.
Airport passenger numbers
2,303,888
Flights
(1.0%)
15,853
% represents year-on-year change
IMPORTANT NOTE: The source of the hotel occupancy data referenced in this newsletter is STR Global Ltd. Republication or other reuse of this data without the express written permission of STR Global is strictly prohibited.
5 | Manchester Monitor – December 2014
(+5%)
Housing Monitor % change in % change in available available properties since properties since Jan 2014 July 2013
Average rent, July 2014
% price change since Jan 2014
% price change since July 2013
Available properties, July 2014
Studio Flats
£479
13.7%
3.2%
134
42.6%
-13%
1 Bed Flats
£529
6.5%
2.1%
1,554
23.4%
-12.3%
2 Bed Flats
£690
8.1%
3.0%
3,085
32.2%
-13.9%
3 Bed Flats
£1,054
4.4%
1.1%
357
15.2%
4.4%
2 Bed Houses
£506
0.1%
2.0%
1,722
-3.7%
-14.2%
3 Bed Houses
£668
-0.1%
-1.4%
1,642
-13.8%
-19.3%
4 Bed Houses
£1,037
-5.4%
-3.0%
644
-26.3%
-26.8%
Apartment rents increasing Average rents for apartments in GM have grown year-on-year, based on analysis of the latest data sourced from GM estate agents. The housing rental market has seen a slightly different trend, with the cost of 3 and 4-bed properties declining on an annual basis. House and Flat Rentals
House prices and sales
Between July 2013 and July 2014, the average rent for a studio apartment in GM increased by 3.2% to reach £479 per calendar month (pcm). Rents for 1 and 2-bed properties grew by 2.1% and 3.0% respectively. A typical 1-bed flat in GM now costs £529 pcm, with a 2-bed flat costing £690 pcm. The cost of renting a 3-bed flat grew by 1.1% to reach £1,054 pcm in GM.
The average property in GM cost £108,500 in October 2014, up slightly on the previous month’s figure of £108,000. On an annual basis, the cost of a typical property in GM is 5.2% (£5,400) higher than it was in October 2014. This means that year-on-year prices in GM have now risen for 12 consecutive months.
The number of studio flats, 1-bed and 2-bed flats available for rent declined on an annual basis between July 2013 and 2014, while 3-bed apartment numbers saw a small rise. The trend is different when trends are analysed from JanuaryJuly 2014, with a significant increase in the number available for rent. Looking at the housing rental market, average monthly rents for 2-bed houses in GM grew between July 2013 and 2014 by 2.0%, reaching £506 pcm. The cost of renting 3 and 4bed houses declined over the same period, by 1.4% and 3.0% respectively.
The annual increase in GM was above the 4.5% rise in the North West, however it was below the increase for England and Wales of 7.7%. Nationally, the cost of a typical property now stands at £177,400. All GM districts recorded annual increases in house prices from October 2013-14. On a relative basis, Bury (9.5%) and Trafford (7.5%) experienced the highest rises. House sales data from the Land Registry show that there were a total of 3,218 properties sold in GM in August 2014, an increase of 104 units (3.3%) over the same period a year earlier. This was similar to the growth seen across England and Wales of 3.6%, but below the regional increase of 7.0%.
Looking at the number of houses available for rent via estate agents there were just over 1,700 2-bed properties for rent in July 2014, 1,642 3-bed properties and 644 4-bed properties available for rent in GM. For all property sizes this represents a decrease in the number of available properties since the same time last year and in January 2014.
Manchester Monitor – December 2014 | 6
Crime Monitor Assault attendances across GM rolling 12 month total
15,000 14,500 14,000 13,500 13,000 12,500
-1 4
Au g
Ap r14
De c13
-1 3
Au g
r13
Ap
De c12
12 g-
Au
-1 2
Ap r
c11
De
-1 1
11
Au g
Ap r-
De c10
-1 0
Au g
r10
Ap
De c09
12,000
Assault Attendance Figures Lowest Since Records Began The latest figures in relation to assault attendances at each of GM’s eight hospital trusts’ local emergency departments show that figures have continued to reduce steadily since a summer 2013 spike, and are now at their lowest levels since records began. Assaults Data
GM Fire & Rescue Service Data
Baseline data for the 12 months ending September 2014 show that around 12,400 people were treated for assault related injuries in GM hospitals, a decrease of 4.5% on the figures from the previous year. In actual terms, this is the lowest rolling figure since records began five years ago. Key reductions at GM hospitals include Fairfield General and North Manchester General.
The total volume of deliberate fires has reduced by 25.4% across GM in the last ten months. Deliberate secondary fires in GM (i.e. smaller fires affecting open spaces and the public realm rather than property) were recorded at just over 5,500 for the 12 months to October 2014, compared to a figure of 7,900 for the previous year, an annual decrease of 29.2% (2,500).
Crime Volumes
The number of deliberate primary fires (those where owned property is involved) also fell by 6.4% annually, with around 1,500 primary fires recorded to October 2014 compared to just under 1,600 to October last year. The reductions are mainly due to the interventions such as youth engagement and school visits, as well as collaboration with GM Police and the Environmental Services.
Figures for the year ending October 2014 show that there were just over 190,900 reported crimes in GM – an annual increase of 6.7%, or 12,006 additional offences. Victim-based crimes (stealing, criminal damage & arson, violence and sexual offences) saw 172,100 cases recorded over the same period, representing an annual increase of 6.9% (11,112). Key to this rise has been the continued increase in violent crimes (homicides, and violence both with and without injury) which have undergone a 29.8% (8,273) increase in the period. A similar increase has been seen across the country.
7 | Manchester Monitor – December 2014
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