Candidates’ Preview
The K Factor
BEREND VONK
Who are the favourites to challenge Carlsen?
Coming March, in Moscow, eight Candidates will fight for the right to play the World Champion in a match next autumn. In an incisive and candid preview, SERGEY SHIPOV believes that an old trend will continue.
16 A
C an d i date s’ Pre v i e w
When I entered the Moscow University Physics Faculty in 1983 there were six applicants for every place. I succeeded in gaining admittance, which had a disastrous effect on my chess career. In the Candidates’ Tournament in March the competition will be even fiercer. For all the participants even second place will be a defeat. Only sole victory has any point! And from the career standpoint this is the main chance of their life. Only Anand and Topalov can feel calm, since they have already played matches for the title, whereas the other contestants can merely repeat their achievement. In general, a Candidates’ Tournament cannot be compared even with the most prestigious super-tournament. The atmosphere is completely different! In the battle for the right to play a championship match there is no place for good humour, there is no right to play to the gallery, and there is no possibility of gaining pleasure from a game. His Majesty the result presses on all the players with terrible force. And even previous friends are transformed into wolves. The composition of the tournament is quite even, and to pick out
the obvious favourites (as well as the outsiders) is difficult. But I will try... The general prognosis is this: the one who qualifies for a meeting with Carlsen will be a player of his generation, much younger than Anand. Youth should, at last, make its mark. You would like a more concrete explanation? By all means. I grew up, studied and worked in those times when the K letter was dominant. In the forefront were Karpov, Kortchnoi, Kasparov and Kramnik. Then came a slight break, transition years, a discordance of letters. This happens – no one tendency can last for ever... But then came Carlsen (the writing of his name cannot conceal that the fact that the first letter sounds like a K) and order was restored. You can regard me as an old grumbler, a hostage to superstition and tradition (apart from the names mentioned I respect Keres and idolize Capablanca), but in my view the tendency will be continued – the next World Champion will definitely be a player from the K group. Of course, this result may be ensured by Magnus himself, by winning the match, but for safety’s sake he needs an opponent from the same group: Karjakin or Caruana. And they are the main favourites in the Candidates’ Tournament. I realize that, apart from mysticism and lyricism, objective factors explaining this choice are also needed. Let us look at each contestant individually, and weigh up his chances.
Vishy Anand
India 46 years old – 2784
I think that the Maestro will be unable again to rise to the top. The reason is not only his age (Vishy has already demonstrated that years for him are of no significance), and not
C an d i date s’ Pre v i e w
the strength of his rivals (among them there is no young Kasparov), but his motivation. Ask yourself a very important question: does Anand want to play a match with Carlsen for a third time in succession? Of course, he would be glad to again earn an inordinate sum of money, but to play chess with someone who has already beaten him twice? – hardly. I don’t think that Vishy has any illusions regarding their relative strengths. Magnus is clearly stronger, and time is on his side. An understanding of this sad reality may depress the will of the exWorld Champion, and weaken his fighting qualities and motivation. A second important factor is the serious attitude on the part of his rivals. Before the previous Candidates’ Tournament many commentators asserted that anyone could finish first, only not Anand. Years of colourless performances had created the illusion of the Indian being pensioned off. They effectively ‘buried’ him, and considered him incapable of new feats. I think that this assessment also told on the competitive battle in Khanty-Mansiysk. On this occasion even the young and arrogant youngsters will treat the great player with due respect. They will give 100% against him and will not overstep the mark. In this new tournament I expect solid and high-quality play from Vishy. He may personally determine the champion’s opponent, but he himself will miss out.
Veselin Topalov Bulgaria 40 years old – 2780
A player of unlimited possibilities. He plays either brilliantly, or ignominiously: from 3000 to 2600. The range of his playing strength is extremely wide, with no stability. Veselin can win one tournament without any
A 17
chances for his opponents, but in another (with the same line-up) he can finish last. For me these are essentially grounds for refusing to predict his performance. But I will try to focus on the main thing: Topalov has no real chances of being first. Firstly, his lack of stability can also display itself during the course of a tournament. At some point a slump in his play will certainly occur, since 14 rounds is a long tournament. The second factor to some extent explains the first – age. Topalov has an energy-consuming and concrete style of play. He calculates a great deal, and for this a large reserve of joules is required. Anand can play by sight, intuitively – and almost certainly produce a high-quality decision. The Bulgarian grandmaster does not possess this gift to a sufficient degree. Hence his serious mistakes caused by fatigue. On the other hand, Veselin has far greater ambition than Vishy. He has not yet played a match with Carlsen. He has the stimulus to try and summon all his remaining strength (and even slightly more) for an upward surge.
Peter Svidler
Russia 39 years old – 2751
In recent times his play has lacked stability, and only occasionally does he recall the past. Oh, but how well Peter played in the last World Cup! And he practically had victory in his grasp. But in some mystical way he threw it away. What hindered him? What was the reason? I think that it was a matter of Svidler’s nervous system and mental features. The anticipation of success is a strong test. Even people with nerves of steel sometimes go wrong in such a situation. But Peter’s are not
18 A
‘With pain in my heart I exclude the three oldest contestants from the list of possible winners.’ made of steel. And besides... He constantly engages in self-irony, which, in my view, is very harmful from the karma point of view. It creates a kind of ceiling, which you cannot breach, however hard you try. Svidler outplays grandmasters of the second echelon easily and without effort, and in such play ‘from on high’ his talent is fully revealed. But in battles with elite players, whom Peter respects immeasurably, and also when lofty summits are beckoning, the easiness of his play is lost. And, probably, superfluous thoughts creep into his mind. Even a small drop of uncertainty in your strength, even a tiny bit of self-reproach is sufficient to deprive you of stability. And if you have them in such doses as Svidler... Perhaps this is why he has not acquired the habit of winning supertournaments, although he has played in several dozen. Why he has not exploited his chances in Candidates’ and championship tournaments. In recent years Svidler has altogether fallen out of the elite cohort, which migrates from city to city. It has happened that for several months at a time he has not had any strong tournaments. In such a situation the quality of your play declines, and your attacking and resistance strength are lowered. And then there is his age... Yes, until July 2016 the number of years lived by Peter will not yet look frightening. But however you look at it, his best years are behind him. And if then he was unable to break through to the top, why should he be able to now? Of course, Gelfand will laugh at these arguments of mine. But I will nevertheless insist on them. The suc-
C an d i date s’ Pre v i e w
cess of Boris Abramovich was that exception which confirms the general rule. I hope and even believe that Svidler will perform worthily in the tournament. But that he will win it – no. And so, with pain in my heart I exclude the three oldest contestants from the list of possible winners. I think that Carlsen’s future opponent will be one of the five younger players. Let’s look at them in more detail.
Sergey Karjakin Russia 26 years old – 2769
A serious fighter with hardly any weak points. He is able to compose himself at critical moments, and he is able to motivate himself for the most important games and tournaments. And also he has matured. In the last Candidates’ Tournament Sergey was also close to success. After a poor start he composed himself and with a sharp spurt he almost caught the leader, Anand. For success all that Karjakin lacked was a couple of accurate moves in their individual encounter one round before the end. To finish second in a tournament of such standard is already an historic achievement (remember Keres), but I was left with the distinct feeling that for Sergey this is not the limit. In the intervening time the Russian experienced a serious slump; at one point it was even painful to look at him (for example, in the Russian Championship, Kazan 2014), and I am even ashamed to say that I thought marriage had ruined another chess player. ☺ But no! Sergey emerged with honour from the crisis. The trials made him stronger. He has never stopped working seriously on chess. He has been patient, patient, patient... Now in Karjakin one senses a reserve of solidity. He has become a strong man, a father and a fighter.
Candidates’ Preview Now Fortune loves him as strongly as before. Apart from incredible luck in the final of the World Cup one can also remember other episodes in Sergey’s career. For example, his ‘mass’ victory over all the Chinese players, when in some games a loss was more probable than a win. But, as is well known, the one who is lucky is always the strongest player. The one who really is ready to become this. The one who believes in himself. In general, Karjakin has chances. It is all in his hands.
fight for the title. He has beaten the Champion several times, he has won numerous super-tournaments, his prestige in the chess world is high. All that remains is to demonstrate his strength once more in the Candidates’.
Hikaru Nakamura
USA 28 years old – 2787
A year ago I would undoubtedly have named him as the main favourite for the new Candidates’ Tournament, being in no doubt that he would qualify for it. But now all is not so simple. Fabiano’s results have declined, and his rivals have become stronger... And yet, by analogy with Karjakin’s situation, I believe in a new and even higher surge by Caruana. The Italian’s period of relative failure is bound to come to an end. He has already become an experienced fighter, going through not only fire and water, but also much more (precisely at the end of last year). Caruana’s main virtue is his devilish industriousness. As far as I know, he has assembled a powerful team of helpers (the world is full of rumours), so his preparation should be at a very high level. The main thing is that Fabiano should not over-train, and should not overestimate his strength. A week of high-quality relaxation before the tournament in accordance with Botvinnik’s method, i.e. completely without chess – and he will have a serious chance of repeating the achievement of his great predecessor. Both mentally, and as regards chess mastery, Caruana is ready to
This is the dark horse, the third favourite. 2015 was the most successful year in Hikaru’s career. He demonstrated genuinely mature and stable play. Personally I would place him second on the year’s results after the World Champion. A better moment for a tilt at the title cannot be imagined. If not now, then when? The American’s age is not yet critical, of course, but also he no longer has a great number of years in reserve. Now is the time! True, there is one unpleasant factor... Like Anand, it is unlikely that Nakamura is burning with desire to play against Carlsen. The score in their individual meetings is just so bad. It’s either 11-0 or 12... Therefore on the level of Hikaru’s sub-conscious, for all his boldness and fighting spirit, he will be afraid of a new meeting with the leader of modern chess. I am in no doubt that at the level of conscious desires Nakamura very much wants to qualify for a title match and break the unpleasant tradition of defeats, but his organism, his previous wounds received in battles with Carlsen, will be remembered. Objecting slightly... However, this negative factor should not be over-dramatized, since history recalls examples of the transformation of challengers, who earlier could not compete with the champion. The most vivid of these is Alekhine, who before the 1927
C an d i date s’ Pre v i e w
Fabiano Caruana
USA 23 years old – 2787
match could do nothing to oppose Capablanca. In general, Nakamura should adopt the example of the fourth World Champion. He must demonstrate Alekhine’s character!
Anish Giri
The Netherlands 21 years old, 2798
For the moment the young grandmaster’s career is progressing ideally. His successes are following a rising trajectory, one even somewhat ahead of my bold expectations (everyone may have his opinion on this). By his mentality and amazing ease of play, Giri reminds me of the young Anand, and they are even outwardly somewhat similar. Anish plays economically and solidly, without visible effort and very successfully... This is all very good, but the question arises: is he capable of extreme effort? Without this you cannot become either the champion, or the challenger to the title. Being the only one and the best, and being simply successful and stable – these are different psychological situations. Different feelings. In order to climb higher than everyone, at some point something special has to be accomplished. You have to master yourself. For example, save that which cannot be saved. Withstand extreme pressure. Win a decisive game. And so on. The reason for my fears is obvious: Anish does not win super-tournaments. We don’t count Dutch Championships, since they are of a different level. But in elite events Giri takes one of the prize places, regularly scores more than 50%, but, alas, does not finish first. And this is what will have to be done in Moscow in March. Can the Russian Dutchman reorganize himself psychologically and rise above himself precisely in his first Candidates’ Tournament, where apart from a very strong line-up there
A 19
Candidates’ Preview is also special responsibility? This would resemble a fairy-tale. I don’t believe it! I think that it is still too early for Anish to win such celestial tournaments. Although they have become juicy, the grapes are sour. He still needs time to mature. Incidentally, this creates... an excellent psychological background for Giri. He can repeat the phrase of the young Karpov, ‘This is not my cycle!’, and calmly play chess. Then there will be a chance of refuting my prognosis. There is one more subjective factor in favour of Giri’s unexpected ascent – Tukmakov. It is unlikely that he is intending to await success for many years; he does not have them. It is Vladimir Borisovich with his strong and forceful character who is capable of giving his pupil a winning impulse. We will see in March...
20 A
Levon Aronian
Armenia 33 years old – 2792
As is well known, a player included in a tournament at the last moment is always lucky. And it is also said that God loves the number three. So let us see how Levon plays in his third Candidates’ Tournament. He did not shine last year, and only in Saint Louis did he display his real, truly celestial level. I think that this slump may prove useful for Aronian (it would appear that this motif has become the recurrent theme of my article!). In the two preceding Candidates’ battles he was unable to withstand the tension, and at some point he cracked up. But in recent times, being in the shadow of the other players, Levon has preserved his nervous system, avoiding excessive strain. He is still a young man, so that during these couple of years he has probably accumulated a fair reserve of nerv-
C an d i date s’ Pre v i e w
ous energy, which will help him in Moscow. Can Aronian be considered one of the favourites? I would refrain from such an assessment. I also appeal to all his faithful supporters, of whom there are far more than the inhabitants of Armenia. The fewer the hopes placed on Levon, the easier it will be for him to play. And how well he can play in the capacity of a free artist (especially when he is emotionally inspired) is known by the whole world. And also by the champion.
■■■
We impatiently await the tournament! I hope that it will present us with an interesting competitive scenario... and many surprises, which later will force us to remember this article with a smile and to speak the hackneyed phrase: ‘Man proposes, but God disposes’.
■