2 minute read
CEO’s Desk
Creating a Clearer Picture of New Jersey Real Estate
For more than a year, we’ve been conducting a quarterly member survey about the housing market. The poll is different from the housing data we distribute each month because it focuses on what you are hearing and seeing in the market from your clients and colleagues. We find it to be a good compliment to the housing data, as it gives some context to the numbers. It’s evaluating professional confidence within the current housing market at a large scale. We started these polls before the pandemic happened and one of the most valuable outcomes has been the ability to compare data quarter-to-quarter amid the constantly changing market.
Here’s what some of the data from the latest poll told us:
Economic conditions continue to improve.
Two-thirds (67 percent) of members now rate current economic conditions as excellent or good, while only a third (33 percent) rate conditions as just fair or poor. This marks a continued positive shift in economic outlook from the low point in April 2020 (26 percent excellent/ good, 74 percent just fair/poor), but ratings are still below where they were in January 2020 (85 percent excellent/good, 15 percent just fair/poor).
Members are split on whether they expect housing prices to increase or stay the same.
Four in ten (41 percent) members expect housing prices to increase over the next year, while slightly fewer (38 percent) expect prices to stay the same. This outlook is changed slightly from July 2020, where more members expected prices to stay the same (44 percent) than increase (30 percent).
Members continue to report less buyer and seller activity due to COVID-19.
A majority of members have had clients decide to hold off on buying (52 percent) or selling (55 percent) because of the COVID-19 outbreak. Most members (82 to 85 percent) report that only some or none of those clients have returned to the housing market so far. Just over half of members (56 percent) report currently working with out of state clients, and of those members, 73 percent report having more out of state buyers compared to this time last year.
Property tax concerns continue to weigh heavily on buyers. Overall, 78 percent of members see property taxes as the most important or a major factor for clients.
Over half (59 percent) of members say they have had buyers who could afford the mortgage payments on a house they liked, but the property taxes made the monthly payment too high. Half (52 percent) of members report clients deciding to move or sell because their property taxes were too high, an increase from 43 percent in July. Of those members, just under half (48 percent) report having clients who moved out of state.
We know a lot of this information through the conversations we have with members every day, but the poll allows us to quantify this type of data. The data is also specific to location, so we can see what local markets are high in confidence and which are dwindling. We’ve used the data to lobby, when speaking to press, and to help inform decisions.
The data is available to you to see and use— njrealtor.com/heatmap.
The next survey will go out in April (the email comes from American Strategies) and we ask that you respond, tell us what you’re seeing, and help create a clear picture of New Jersey real estate.
