Geopolitics

E b b i n g I n D I A - R u s s i a de f e n c e b u s i n e s s

geopolitics Vol III, Issue VII, DECEMBER 2012 n `100

de f e n ce n

di p l o m a c y n

Reinventing the paramilitary forces China’s new leaders

s ec u ri t y

ShinMaywa bets big on India

united we buy It is time for the three Services to coordinate in buying common weapon systems

COVER STORY (P36)

Integrating Resources sainiksamachar.in

The ongoing Revolution in Military Affairs necessitates an integrated approach of all military and paramilitary wings in evolving common logistic concepts to procure and utilise resources jointly.

PANORAMA (P10)

SPECIAL REPORT (P12)

china-defense-mashup

defenceforumindia.com

Transforming the Gorshkov Although it has missed delivery dates by years and overshot cost estimates, Admiral Gorshkov’s transformation into the INS Vikramaditya will give the Indian Navy a formidable platform.

Internal Security (P48)

India needs more mountain strike corps as China might be inclined towards vertical envelopment operations infiltration by its Rapid Reaction Special Forces into the Indian territories.

DefBiz (P16)

RECALLING 1962 (P72)

Road to Dereliction

bullish on india

THE SOVIET ROLE

The NH-30 connecting Maoistinfested Chhattisgarh to AP is neglected, despite the importance of roads in counter-insurgency operations.

Bob Gower, Vice President and General Manager, Boeing Military Aircraft talks about integration of systems and his firm’s experience in India.

Newly-released material suggests that the Soviet Union’s position on the Sino-Indian border conflicts was not of neutrality as widely believed.

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December 2012

Falling in Line (p65) The deportation of Pak-trained terrorists from Saudi Arabia gives grounds for optimism that Islamist extremists using Saudi soil to mount their campaigns against India are no longer secure.

hemant rawat

mda.mil

pib

hemant rawat

REINVENTINg THE paramilitary (p52) The Ministry of Home Affairs is aiming to provide paramilitary forces a wide range of high-tech equipment to combat internal security challenges.

America’s Missile Shield (p18) In an effort to contain the menace of missile attacks a new system successfully demonstrated the integrated capabilities of US regional missile defense systems.

FOCUS (P68)

flying high (p20) ShinMaywa’s Cmdre (Retd) Sujeet Samaddar, on the entry of his company into the country, the offsets policy and the US-2 amphibian aircraft.

Russia’s Arms Bazar hemant rawat

Vladimir Putin is likely to reverse the downslide of the past and enthuse a new lease of life in the Indo-Russian defence relationship.

Editor-in-Chief

K SRINIVASAN

Editor GE OP OL I T I C S

Managing Editor

TIRTHANKAR GHOSH

PRAKASH NANDA Consulting Editor

Assistant Editor

SAURAV JHA

Justin C Murik

Copy Editor

Chief Visualiser

Designers

ASHOK KUMAR

AJAY NEGI

mohit kansal, MODASSAR NEHAL, NAGENDER DUBEY

DIPLOMACY (P60)

Challenges of leadership As they lead their country into a new era, China’s incoming

Design Consultant

Photo Editor

Staff Photographer

leadership will face a number

ARTWORKS

H C TIWARI

HEMANT RAWAT

of novel economic and political

Director (Corporate Affairs)

Director (Marketing)

RAJIV SINGH

RAKESH GERA

Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for newseye media Pvt. Ltd. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear.

Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020.

Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in. www.geopolitics.in

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challenges.

Cover Design: Artworks Cover Photo: Hemant Rawat/IAF The total number of pages in this issue is 80 with cover

December 2012

geopolitics

letters



letters to the editor D E F E N C E � D I P L O M A C Y � S E C U R I T Y

UNDER A CLOUD

SNOOPING

BEYOND THE MOUNTAINS

SECURITY

AND NANOTECHNOLOGY

HAVE THE PRITHVI 1&2 AND HATF 1&2 BECOME IRRELEVANT?

K

udos for the in-depth DefBiz story, “Chopper-borne eye in the sky”, published in the November issue of your magazine. It made for immensely valuable reading. In an age that is living up to the Darwian maxim of ‘survival of the fittest’, learning about the Indian Army’s decision to acquire helicopter-based early warning systems that will considerably enhance its ability to peer into enemy territory made us feel good.

As an Indian, we realise that our country faces threats to its security from almost all its neighbours and it has been well-documented that Pakistan has been encouraging and assisting terrorists to indulge in acts of terrorism in India. Above this, it is the military might of China that poses an even greater security threat. China’s continuing collusion with Pakistan and the dangers of a two-front war arising therefrom is like a nightmare haunting those in position of authority in Delhi.

In such a situation, when faced with strong enemies that possess both strength and stamina in terms of manpower and ammunitions, it has become indispensable for our Army to progress from the limitations of the present system of conventional operational procedures such as human intelligence, aerial surveillance, electronic surveillance, listening devices etc. to know about the enemy and its position and strengths, and elevate itself to

www.geopolitics.in

state-of-the-art technology. After all, we happen to be one of the strongest armies of the world and need to maintain our standard.

The new system, as we have learnt, holds tremendous benefits and can keep us a cut above the rest by providing early warning about surface-to-air and airto-air missiles that are launched against helicopters in a theatre. What we need to figure out is to get the best out of this technology and have it make sense in our military environment.

Regards

Shivam Sharma Chandigarh

A

propos of your story called ‘Thinking beyond the Prithvi’ in the November issue of the magazine, the idea of a totally relinquishing a particular range of missiles seems rather unnerving. It was contended that, as both India and Pakistan were deploying—of late—newer missiles, “they no longer rely on outdated first-generation missiles”, which were essentially SRBMs. And, now that these missiles were “obsolete”. The Prithvi series has a number of variants for use by the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force and many of them have already been inducted into these Services.

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PANORAMA

IAF

IAF

2010 BAE HAWK The Hawk Mk.132 formally entered service with the Indian Air Force in 2008. The aircraft has made such an impression on the Force that it has ordered many more, most recently as a mount for the Surya Kiran aerobatic display team.

80 GLORIOUS

YEARS OF

THE IAF 1930 WESTLAND WAPITI These biplanes were the IAF’s first aircraft and saw action in the Miranshah, in North Waziristan.

1997 SU-30 MKI A development of the remarkable Su-27 fighter, the SU-30 MKI was specially developed for India by Russia's Sukhoi Design Bureau and India's Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the IAF.

F

or an Air Force that is starkly professional and steeped in history, the Indian Air Force also has a dash of glamour (one can count scores of Hindi films where the hero is a fighter pilot or commands a helicopter), dollops of goodwill (innumerable are the humanitarian and disaster relief ops that they undertake year after year) and a generous sprinkling of milestones in its eight decades of guarding and securing our skies. It’s been a memorable journey and one that has marker after distinguished marker. As the saying goes: “A moment lasts all of a second, but the memory lives on forever.”

Over the years the Indian Air Force has played a crucial role in the security of India giving an exemplary account of itself. As it enters the ninth decade of service, Geopolitics looks at some of the milestones and markers and salutes the men and women who guard our skies.

1980 MIRAGE 2000 The Mirage 2000 delta-wing, fly-bywire fighter, with high agility and a formidable radar/missile combination was the answer to the F-16 ordered by Pakistan. During the 1999 Kargil conflict, the Mirage 2000 performed extremely well in the high Himalayas.

1950 HAWKER HUNTER Inducted into the Indian Air Force in 1954, they were extensively operated in the Indo-Pakistani War of 1971, playing a crucial role in the historic battle of Longewala. The last IAF Hunter was phased out of service in 1996.

1940 SPITFIRE The star of the Royal Air Force during the Second World War, the Supermarine Spitfire also served with distinction in the 1948 conflict in Kashmir.

IAF

1970 MIG-21 In 1964, the MiG-21 became the first supersonic fighter jet to enter service with the IAF. During the 1971 Indo-Pakistan War, the MiG21s played a crucial role in giving the IAF air superiority over vital points and areas in the western theatre of the conflict.

1960 FOLLAND GNAT The IAF became the largest operator of the Gnat and even manufactured the aircraft under licence. Used extensively in the 1965 and 1971 wars it earned a reputation as the ‘Sabre Slayer’ for the large number of Pakistani F-86 Sabres that it destroyed.

MARKERS AND

MILESTONES • Operation Vijay: The 1961 Indian annexation of Goa ended Portuguese rule in its Indian enclaves in 1961. The armed action involved air, sea and land strikes for over 36 hours, and was a decisive victory for India, ending 451 years of Portuguese colonial rule in Goa.

• Operation Meghdoot:: To capture the Siachen Glacier launched on April 13, 1984, the IAF used Il-76, An-12 and An-32 to transport stores and troops as well to airdrop supplies to high altitude airfields. From there Mi-17, Mi-8 and HAL Chetak helicopters carried provisions and personnel to the east of the hitherto unscaled peaks.

• Operation Poomalai or Eagle Mission 4 was the codename assigned to a mission undertaken by the Indian Air Force to air-drop supplies over the besieged town of Jaffna in Sri Lanka on June 4, 1987 in support of Tamil Tigers during the Sri Lankan Civil War. WINGSOVEREUROPE.COM

OTHER SIGNIFICANT AIRCRAFT

You say that even if these missiles have a range less than 250 km deployed near the Indo-Pak border they could cause rapid escalation of a conflict, either by their use (to deliver nuclear or conventional payloads) or by presenting a tempting target.

Surely, failsafe mechanisms exist for the accidental firing of such missiles during a conflict of the conventional nature. I am sure the forces have a strict set of guidelines to be followed in case of a warlike situation and the loss of communication with the central command authority.

Then again, if the measure is reciprocated by the intended target country and leads to grater amity between our nations then it is certainly worth exploring.

But before India takes any such action it should make completely sure that its actions are reciprocated sincerely by our neighbour on the west.

I like your section called Panorama that gives a graphic representation of a current story. The way you portray interesting geopolitical events, and new technological achievements by breaking down the individual elements is very interesting. I also liked your graphical representation in the DefBiz section of the magazine.

The use of little fact boxes on other stories also adds to the visual appeal of the stories compared to other defence publications that have a deluge of text on their pages. Keep up the good work.

BAE

ADRIAN PINGSTONE WIKIPEDIA

VOL III, ISSUE VI, NOVEMBER 2012 � `100

MINDARTDESIGN.COM

GROWING INDO -US DEFENCE TRADE

geopolitics

FLY787'S PHOTOSTREAM

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Hurricane (1940) The Hurricane equipped the IAF’s fleet during the Second World War on the Eastern Front in the campaigns against the Japanese.

C-47 Dakota (1950) The Dakota was the workhorse of the IAF transport fleet and provided an exemplary service in all the theatres it was deployed in.

C-119 Fairchild Packet (1950) In order to augment the Dakota in the transport fleet, the C119 Packet was inducted into the IAF. The Packet would be used till the mid-80s as a mediumsized transport aircraft.

HF-24 Marut (1960) FLY787'S PHOTOSTREAM The Marut was India’s first indigenously developed fighter aircraft designed by legendary German engineer Kurt Tank.

Sukhoi Su-7(1960) The Sukhoi 7 was a tough ground attack aircraft that was well respected by the IAF’s pilots for the ordnance it could carry and the punishment it could take

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SEPECAT Jaguar (1970) First inducted in the late 1970’s the Jaguar strike aircraft has stupendous ground attack capabilities. The Air Force is planning a substantial upgrade with better avionics and engines, cementing the role of the aircraft as the carrier of India’s nuclear deterrent

MiG-29 (1980) The MiG-29 is one of the best performing aircraft of its generation and gave the Indian Air Force an excellent fighter comparable to the very best in the world

• The 1988 Maldives coup d'état, whose rescue efforts were code-named Operation Cactus. The operation started on the night of November 3, 1988, when Ilyushin Il-76 aircraft of the Indian Air Force airlifted troops and flew them non-stop over 2,000 kilometres (1,240 mi) to air-drop them over the Malé International Airport.

Regards,

RK Singh Indore

All correspondence may be addressed to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013.

OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in.

December 2012

{GOLDENEYE}

g

Dost ki Raksha!

B

hai Mantriji ke paas bahut kaam hai — khel kud bhi hai aur raksha bhi hai. Aur sone pe suhaga, bhaiyaaji ke dost bhi hai (The Minister has got sports, he’s got defence and to cap it all he is a friend of brother). For those who haven’t understood, ‘brother’ is actually big brother, Rahul Gandhi, with whom the new Minister of State for Defence, Jitendra Singh, studied at Doon School. So, the good man’s drill these days is fifty-fifty — first half at Shastri Bhawan to attend to the country’s sports needs and the second half at South Block to play his role as Pallam Raju’s replacement at Defence.

The critical question that people are asking is: Why was Jitendra Singh given

Rebranding HAL

Defence Production and why was Lal Chand Kataria and Jitin Prasada gently eased out of the South Block ambit? Well, those in the know suggest that with a stroke-less wonder as the Raksha Mantri, the powers-that-be wanted someone who would listen to them and carry out a few errands as and when required.

Now, don’t get us wrong, when we say strokeless wonder. What we mean is that AK Antony is the sort of bloke who will mull, muse, ruminate, contemplate and maybe then decide to move forth with a decision.

Sometimes, though, you need to fast-track things through the back channel. Bhai Doon School ki dosti kab kaam aayegi?

H

industan Aeronautics Chairman R K Tyagi has one hell of a job on his hands. His predecessor had written several letters to the government telling them that it wasn’t interested in pursuing the IAF project to replace the Fokker. It delighted the Air Force and the Raksha Mantralaya more or less took HAL out of the equation.

Now, Tyagi is quietly working behind-the-scenes to make sure that they are able to somehow bring HAL back unto the reckoning. Whether he will be successful is something that only time will tell.

Meanwhile, comes a double whammy from the Home Minister where Home Secretary RK Singh told the CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) to buy the best available unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) through global tendering instead of solely relying on HAL for their procurement for use in anti-Naxal operations.

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December 2012

{GOLDENEYE}

g RK’s balancing act W

ithout doubt the best piece on RK Singh and the Kasab execution is by Syed Nazakat and R Prasannan in The Week: “Union Home Secretary R K Singh missed a heartbeat when an acquaintance phoned him in his Delhi home on the evening of November 20 and said ‘good luck’. A short while earlier India’s Deputy High Commissioner in Islamabad, Gopal Bagley, had driven to the Pakistan foreign ministry and met the Director-General for South Asia, Zehra Akbari. RK Singh knew that Bagley had gone there to convey the decision that Ajmal Kasab, the sole survivor among the 10 terrorists who attacked Mumbai in November 2008, would be hanged the next morning. Had the news leaked? Never had I seen him so worried,” an aide later told.

“As it turned out, Singh was worrying needlessly. The caller, an acquaintance, was wishing good luck to the government in general which was expected to face a stormy session in Parliament over its economic reforms. There were few chances of the news leaking deliberately from any of the 20 people who were in

the know. But the worry of Intelligence Bureau chief Nehchal Sandhu was that it could leak inadvertently while some of them were ensuring that there would be no adverse fallout after the news broke.”

“On Sandhu’s directive, all media interactions by home ministry officials in the days prior to the execution were discreetly cancelled. In Delhi, Home Secretary Singh called a final meeting of the few in the know the day before the execution was to be carried out, to check whether everything was in place. After others left, he asked Joint Secretary (Judicial) J L Chugh to check whether all procedures were being followed in letter and spirit—whether the condemned prisoner was being medically examined before the hanging, about his last supper, his last wish, last bath, last prayer and recording of utterances of last words. He even checked whether there had been any request from the family for a last visit!”

Pallam’s promotion T

hat Pallam Raju had delighted the Congress leadership is beyond doubt. The question is: What did the long-term Minister of State for Defence Production do that delighted the Prime Minister and Sonia Gandhi to promote him and hand him the meaty HRD Ministry? Frankly, there are no clear-cut answers to this question. Nor is it a black and white juxtaposition.

Those in the know say that the promotion is a consequence of several factors. For starters, Pallam was the face of the Ministry for Industry.

Antony wouldn’t meet any and scores of them needed an audience in South Block.

Pallam was the man.

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That apart, sources state that he was the key interface in dealing with the Russians on several issues.

Clearly, they were deeply upset at the steady loss of major contracts to the US and Europe and many of the major programmes with them including the transport aircraft programmne, fifth generation fighter aircraft project were all outlined between Raju and the Russians before being formalised. Finally, he had a great role to play in the accession of Kiran Reddy to the Andhra CM’s throne and the stabilisation of AP politics. The reward was a promotion and a short trip from South Block to Shastri Bhawan.

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Is Browne right?

“I

f IAF had not got into the war at the right point of time offensively, the Kargil conflict would have continued for another three months at those impossible heights for our young jawans and officers to be climbing up and losing lives. It is air power, which concluded that war.” That was Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne at his annual press conference before Air Force Day. The ‘Dil Mange More brigade’ as the young Turks of the army who fought at Kargil prefer to call themselves in private, are fuming and believe that the normally reticent Air Chief has been rather unfair to them. “The casualties were huge and we went in at a colossal risk, but there were no options. In any case, the IAF was restricted to our side of the border and there was really nothing much they could do barring transport supplies and troops.”

Maybe Browne is right, maybe wrong, but some officers are sure disappointed at his claim that it’s the IAF that provided the knockout punch!

December 2012

Transforming Although it has missed successive delivery dates by years and overshot cost estimates by several hundreds of millions of dollars, Admiral Gorshkov’s transformation into the INS Vikramaditya will give the Indian Navy a formidable platform to protect its coastlines.

Not only were structural changes made to convert the Gorshkov into the Vikamaditya necessitated with a view to refurbishing and bringing the carrier up to speed, they also reflected the different needs of the Soviet and the Indian Navies.

GEOPOLITICS

PANORAMA

Admiral Gorshkov Role Designated by the Soviet Navy as a heavy aviation cruiser rather than just an aircraft carrier, the Admiral Gorshkov was one of the Kiev-class vessels, which unlike American or British carriers, was a combination of a cruiser and a carrier.

The role of the Gorshkov would have been support for strategic missile submarines, other surface ships and naval aviation. The Gorshkov was also capable of engaging in anti-aircraft, anti-submarine and surface warfare.

Air Wing The aircraft on the Soviet vessel consisted of a squadron of twelve Yak-38 ‘Forger’ V/STOL aircraft (until they were retired in 1992)

Twelve Ka-27 ‘Helix-A’ ASW/SAR helicopters and two Ka-31 ‘Helix’ AEW helicopters.

Flight deck and missile complement Designed with an island superstructure to starboard, with a 2/3 length angled flight deck, the foredeck was taken up with the heavy missile armament.

maritimequest.com

Flight operations were assisted by the Cake Stand TACAN radar. The ship was also used for the trials of the Yak-141 Freestyle fighter.

Armament

2 × 100 mm guns

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24 × 8-cellSAN-9 vertical SAM launchers (192 missiles)

8 ×AK-630 30 mm CIWS,

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6 × twin SS-N-12 Sandbox SSM launchers (12 missiles)

2 × RBU-6000 anti-submarine rocket launchers

10 × 533 mm torpedo tubes

December 2012

the Gorshkov into the Vikramaditya INS Vikramaditya

Air Wing 16 Mikoyan MiG-29K[3] 10 helicopters, possible mix of: Ka-28 helicopters ASW Ka-31 helicopters AEW[4] HAL Dhruv

Superstructure

Role Stobar carrier To convert the Gorshkov from a hybrid carrier/cruiser to a pure carrier, all the weaponry and missile launcher tubes from the ship’s foredeck were removed to make way for a Short Take-Off But Assisted Recovery (STOBAR) configuration.

Flight deck In the STOBAR configuration the INS Vikramaditya is operated with a 14.3 degree ski-jump on the bow and three arrestor wires on the stern of the angled deck. Navigation and carrier-landing aids are being refitted to support fixedwing STOBAR fighters such as the MiG29K which will have a maximum takeoff length of 160–180 metres to operate.

Defence forum india

In order to carry out a sustained aerial campaign, the ship has the potential to accommodate powerful planar or phased array radar systems along with extensive command and control facilities.

Armament Other changes

8 CADS-N-1 Kashtan CIWS guns

Boilers have been converted to take diesel fuel instead of furnace fuel oil Modern oil-water separators as well as a sewage treatment plant are being incorporated Six new Italian-made Wärtsilä 1.5 MW diesel generators, a global marine communications system, a Sperry Bridgemaster navigation radar, a new telephone exchange, new data link and an IFF Mk XI system are being installed www.geopolitics.in

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December 2012

T

CHECKMATING THE CHINESE GAME PLAN

here has been much alarmist talk in the Indian media about how the rapid infrastructure build-up in the two Chinese military regions (MRs)—Lanzhou and Chengdu—facing India will allow the Chinese to mass ‘almost half a million troops on the border’ over a 30day period. Without entering into a debate about the validity of this view, one could say that given the doctrinal changes in the Chinese Army (CA), pursuant to the reforms in its force structure and pursuit of hi-tech weaponry, it is highly unlikely that the Chinese would be looking to fight an enlarged version of the 1962 war, especially in light of India’s counter build-up. No element of surprise will be associated with such an endeavour even if it were actually undertaken and that does not really sit well with the way the Chinese have historically chosen to fight.

On the other hand, there is a possibility that the Chinese may choose to initiate a much more localised conflict, perhaps somewhat covertly, looking to achieve specific objectives such as a heli-borne www.geopolitics.in

assault on Tawang, for example, by using elements from Beijing’s Rapid Reaction Forces (RRF) that have been developed by the Chinese military in the last two decades. Even in the event of a multi-front all-out war, it is these units that will be used in the opening stages and as such constitute the vanguard of the CA for possible conflict with India. Either way, it is important that the structure and possible role of these relatively new formations be examined.

The stated aim of the Chinese military today is to ‘win local wars under the conditions of informationisation’. This approach actually has its roots in Deng Xiaoping’s assessments about the nature of future warfare made in a Central Military Commission (CMC) meeting in 1985 wherein he observed that there had been a fundamental change in the nature of competition itself in the global arena. As per this formulation, rather than building preparedness to fight massive conflicts, nation states in the contemporary world instead look to maintain a techno-economic edge over rivals with the possibility

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of short yet decisive engagements forming the backdrop. Accordingly, China’s so called ‘fourth modernisation’, which pertains to the military, emphasises hightechnology-equipped mobile forces for application on dynamic fronts.

Although the re-equipment process started in the Eighties, it was in 1992 that the largest component of Chinese RRFs called Resolving Emergency Mobile Combat Forces (REMCF) was unveiled and the mandate for this force came directly from the CMC. REMCF-designated units were assigned the role of border defence, subduing internal armed conflict, maintaining public order, and orchestrating disaster relief missions. The development of the REMCF concept followed a phased approach, whereby in the first phase, the traditional Group Army Corps of every MR selected an infantry division to be designated as a REMCF unit for dealing with situations arising on any of China’s borders. In the second phase of development implemented in 1994, there was greater internalisation of the lessons learnt from the First Gulf War and a second batch of December 2012

eng.mod.gov.cn

Dismissing the possibility of a repeat of the 1962-style attack, Saurav Jha explains why and how China might be more inclined towards either vertical envelopment operations and/ or infiltration by its Rapid Reaction Special Forces into the Indian territories. To tackle such an eventuality, India needs more mountain strike corps, he argues

SPECIALREPORT THE FIRST WAVE: Highly-trained special forces may be used in the preliminary stages of a potential Chinese offensive

divisions trained for “quick fighting, quick resolution” of high-intensity and hi-tech regional conflicts was revealed. Subsequent to the accretion of more divisions the consolidated strength of REMCF units is believed to have stabilised at around 300,000 since the late nineties.

Now RRF-type formations, as defined by the Chinese, are supposed to be capable of deployment to any part of China within a two-week period. More realistically though, REMCF units of immediate relevance to India are those already based in the Lanzhou and Chengdu MRs. Indeed, despite the asphalting and development of all key highways headed into Tibet, the fact remains that only the RRF units stationed in these two MRs can be used in operations against India within three-five days of having taken a decision to do so by the CMC. In Chengdu MR, which has under its jurisdiction the Tibet Military District (MD), the highly-mechanised 149th Rapid Reaction Motorised Division is the designated REMCF unit. This unit is highly mechanised and was used to suppress the 2008 riots in Lhasa, which showed that although based in Leshan, Sichuan province, it could manoeuvre heavy equipment into Lhasa using the Qinghai-Tibet railway and the upgraded Sichuan-Tibet national highway with relative ease. As such, the 149th can possibly deploy its WZ-501 and WZ-534 armoured/ Infantry fighting vehicles (AFV/IFV) and WZ-551 armoured personnel carriers (APC) along with gun and missile armed derivatives of the WZ-551 for use against India in less

than 48 hours.

Similarly, the other REMCF unit that can be brought into play rather quickly is the 61st Plateau Rapid Reaction Motorised Division of No. 21 Group Army under Lanzhou MR, which too can reach a point in Tibet within a rather compressed timeframe. This wherewithal to bring in two combined armed divisions to a mountainous frontier for a joint operation with the Chinese Air Force (CAF) at a very short notice is a consequence of the much talked-about infrastructure development on the Tibetan plateau and a threat that has made the Indian military sit up and takes notice. While on paper this may not seem like much, it is actually quite substantial keeping in mind the terrain and the limited aims that a Chinese conventional operation against India might set out with.

As far as the quality of these troops is concerned, it seems that the Chinese brass wants every soldier in REMCF units to undergo specialised training which includes activities such as swimming, skiing, and mountain climbing. Also infantry soldiers in these units are required to become proficient with every weapon system assigned to the company units within their REMCF formation consolidate ‘three attacks and five defences’ and conduct the ‘three real trainings’. The ‘three attacks’ refer to assaults on helicopters, tanks, and airborne troops the ‘five defences’ are indicative of the need

to defend against chemical biological radiological and nuclear (CBRN) use, electronic countermeasures, and precisionguided weapon systems. The ‘three real trainings’ is a reference to deploying real troops, conducting real operations, and using live ammunition in exercises conducted in the assigned area of operations and in other theatres. Essentially, REMCF units are expected to gain competency in combined arms warfare in a networked environment.

Interestingly, there are also special forces components within these two MRs that are designated as RRFs in addition to the REMCF units described above.

These Army Special Force (ASF) units are regiment-sized and report to the CMC via MR headquarters. The two key missions of these units are direct action and special reconnaissance and they apparently use a variety of infiltration techniques in aid of such missions. Chinese ASF is noted for its use of powered parachutes and paragliders in mountainous areas. It is also worth mentioning that these SFs are specially trained for carrying out decapitating strikes against high value civilian and non-civilian targets in the adversary’s rear. Additionally, they are trained and red storm rising: China’s People’s Liberation Army has arrayed considerable forces on the border with India

g SPECIALREPORT

eng.mod.gov.cn

home-grown fighter jets: With decades of experience in reverse engineering Russian fighters, China now has a formable air force fleet

• SFs specially trained for carrying out decapitating strikes against high value civilian and non-civilian targets in the adversary’s rear.

The Chinese military elite • Undergo specialised training which includes swimming, skiing, and mountain climbing.

• Proficient with every weapon system assigned to the company units within their formations • Trained for assaults on helicopters, tanks, and airborne troop • Capable of defending against CBRN use, electronic countermeasures, and precision-guided weapon systems • Training involves deployment of real troops, conducting real operations, and using live ammunition • Noted for use of powered parachutes and paragliders in mountainous areas • Trained and equipped to carry out long duration raids spanning four hours or more. equipped to carry out long-duration raids spanning four hours or more.

The equipment of the ASFs is in line with the kind of hardware that western units with similar roles operate. ASF operators carry cell phone-sized global positioning system (GPS) locators, which also relay co-ordinates from China’s own indigenous satellite-based navigation system, i.e. Beidou, voice video data headsets, hand-launched UAVs, low-level television sets, night-vision goggles etc and a variety of small arms including new assault rifles that use the new indigenously-developed 5.8 mm ammunition.

The ASF unit of greatest concern to www.geopolitics.in

India is the Chengdu MR’s colourfully named ‘Falcons of the Southwest’. For about two decades, this unit has received numerous citations for its air-assault and forward-reconnaissance skills and is trained to operate armoured vehicles as well as fly helicopters. Given its apparent capability in airborne insertion, surprise attacks and emergency evacuations, this unit would most likely be the weapon of choice in any hypothetical scenario that involves any Chinese attempt to seize strategic locations in Arunachal Pradesh such as Itanagar. The ‘Falcons of the SouthWest’ are probably mirrored by the Lanzhou MR’s ‘Tigers of the Night’ which could be used in similar operations against India in the northern theatre.

Though not based in Chengdu or Lanzhou MR, the 15th Airborne corps of the CAF seems to have enjoyed very high priority with respect to modernisation in recent times. Consisting of three airborne divisions with 15,000 troops each, this is an RRF formation once again under direct command of the CMC. Based on the Russian VDV, this unit has been increasingly exercising in Tibet and becoming more and more mechanised in the process. It has air-droppable armour such as ZBD03 IFV, light trucks and jeep as well as integral artillery, air defence and anti-tank elements. However, given strategic airlift constraints (chiefly due to the fact that the CAF has less than two dozen Il-76s and far fewer IL-78 refuellers) at the moment only one division of the 15th Airborne can be moved to Tibet at short notice.

Meanwhile, the key air-mobility enabler of CA RRF units—the Army Aviation Unit (AAU) established in 1986 has seen steady accretion since its inception.

Tasked with deploying helicopters and light aircraft to support ground forces the AAU has also been deeply involved in combined day and night exercises performing anti-armour, Special Forces insertion and electronic warfare operations.

The AAU now has in its order of battle new attack helicopters such as the heavy WZ10 and the much lighter WZ-11, over 200 Harbin Z-9s, 40 Changhe Z-8s and most significantly hundreds of Mi-8/17 stable medium-lift helicopters. Indeed, the Chi-

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nese decision to license produce Mi-17s is a very significant development and a key indicator of the priorities of the Chinese military.

Indeed, the rising profile of RRFs within the Chinese military setup brings forth important issues for Indian defence planners. The Chinese military’s turn towards precision firepower and mobile land forces is accompanied by a concomitant downsizing of the CA which actually makes the ‘30 divisions in a month’ scenario look rather implausible. Doctrine, equipment trends, basing and localisation and logistical issues despite all the efforts put into cross MR mobility show that the CA is not really interested in another 1962-style engagement. However, the very ability to move two REMCF units to the Indian border rapidly is an achievement in itself and should not be underestimated. The CA, judging by recent developments, might be more inclined towards either vertical envelopment operations and/or infiltration by ASFs into Arunachal Pradesh in particular.

The Chinese may be conceptualising a limited strike at a time and place of their choosing by using airpower, ASFs and one of the REMCFs, with the aim of securing escalation dominance, given that they also possess a not insignificant nuclear and conventional ballistic missile force deployed in Chengdu MR. In such a construct, it is really difficult to see how India can avoid building up mountain strike forces of its own. A defensive posture based on concentrated firepower and active manning along India’s vast mountainous border with China is a strange doctrine, given that the Chinese are least likely to attack along a broad front and in any case there could always be gaps that allow ASFs to slip in.

A much better proposition is to give a symmetric response in the form of a mountain strike corps (MSC) or two that can be airlifted into Tibet to seize territory just the way the Chinese possibly intend to in Arunachal Pradesh. On the defensive side of things, the setting-up of Integrated Air Command and Control System nodes facing China must be expedited, since the best way to deter Chinese RRFs is to deny them the use of airspace. Ultimately, a joint Army-Air force response by India with an active defence strategy is the best way forward to ensure that China desists from ‘resolving emergency mobile combat’ situations.

December 2012

INTERVIEW Bob Gower on Boeing’s range of defence platforms

16

INTERVIEW Roll Royce’s Kishore Jayaraman on his company’s prospects

22 geopolitics

D E F E N C E

B U S I N E S S

“We want to be here for the long term” Cmdre (Retd) Sujeet Samaddar, Chief Executive Officer, ShinMaywa Industries India Private Limited, spoke to K Srinivasan about the entry of his company into the country, the offsets policy and the US-2 amphibian aircraft

Pipavav, Saab sign major deal Pipavav Offshore and Defence Engineering Ltd has signed a deal with Saab, the Swedish defence and security company, which seeks to invest Rs 201.6 crore in it. If it meets the

SAAB

Hemant Rawat

Saab’s Hakan Buskhe with Nikhil Gandhi

On ShinMaywa’s entry into the Indian market I think we have no reason to complain.

Things are moving at a pace which is satisfactory. We have only been in India for less than one year. In this time, we have done quite a lot of work and we have made some serious discussions with lots of other Indian industry partners also. So we have done lot of work but at the same time, we definitely want to come into this www.geopolitics.in

country in a very careful and calibrated manner since our interest is purely long term.

You know, we are not here to sell and run away. We want to be here in the long term and for that, we must come in very strongly, deeply convinced of what we are going to do and make sure that our partners are full-time partners and supporters. So this is from that side. Secondly, our customer base here already exists with Continued on Page 20

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necessary approval of the shareholders, Pipavav and government approvals, the agreement will be finalised within three months. If the deal goes through, Saab will hold roughly 3.5 per cent of the capital and votes in Pipavav.

The deals come after a memorandum of understanding for the share offering was signed by the companies in August. A technical partnership agreement.

JV with QuEST Global Saab has also signed a Joint Venture (JV) agreement with QuEST Global Manufacturing, to set up an ‘Aerostructure Assembly Joint Venture’.

Continued on Page 32 December 2012

STRATEGIC LIFTER: The Boeing C-17 Globemaster III can be used for airlift of troops and cargo to operating bases across the country.

boeing

DEFBIZ

“Boeing is very optimistic about India’s aerospace industry…”

Bob Gower is Vice President and General Manager for Boeing Military Aircraft (BMA)-India. He is responsible for the sales, delivery, and customer satisfaction of the Boeing Military Aircraft product line for India as a member of the BMA Office of the President. As a part of his assignment, Gower is also responsible for pursuing adjacent markets by applying the technologies resident within BMA to new customer solutions. He spoke to Geopolitics about the Integration of Systems at the Energising Aerospace Conference.

On the state of the Indian aerospace industry Boeing is very optimistic about the future of India’s aerospace industry. The fundamentals for a successful industry exist in India and its capabilities are growing rapidly. From a systems integration perspective, Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) are among the organisations that have demonstrated impressive systems integration expertise.

These entities have designed and fielded www.geopolitics.in

some impressive capabilities. We are seeing expertise at the subsystem level developing in the private industry and that will continue to expand with time.

On the potential of Indian firms component manufacturing capability The component manufacturing capability in India is emerging at a rapid pace and is a key building block for manufacturing in the aerospace industry. As Indian companies meet the demand for indigenous defence systems and with western

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requirements and processes being introduced into India, we see that the Indian companies are adopting global best practices and applying them to become a part of the international supply chain. We have seen some companies become an integral part of the global supply chain and the number of companies will grow over time. The companies that have been most successful have been the ones with a keen focus on a specific segment of the market.

Indian companies have also been effective at developing innovative methods to December 2012

DEFBIZ meet the requirements and Indian ingenuity has the potential to create a sustainable competitive advantage.

On the global defence market The US and European markets will be

Bob Gower, Vice President and General Manager for Boeing Military Aircraft (BMA) -India

we see that the Indian companies are adopting global best practices and applying them to become a part of the international supply chain impacted by the current economic environments in those regions while the growing economies in Asia could lead to additional investments in defence.

There will continue to be a combination of modifying and upgrading existing products and the development of new products. The modification and upgradation of existing products has proven to be a low risk-approach to meeting evolving needs and will continue to be a valued.

New products will focus on those key assets required to protect a nation and in

On third-party applications in defence Great ideas come from many sources and tapping into all the potential sources of innovation is important.

On the need for India to improve its defence-manufacturing capability India has been making high-end defence items for a long time and continues to improve its capability and capacity. There is an urgent need to have a vibrant, indigenous defence industry within the country to produce defence equipment that can be reliably supplied to the armed forces in times of need. India has the fundamentals in place to enable this transformation to happen. The DPSUs in India have developed capabilities in aerospace, shipbuilding, land vehicles, materials, communica-

boeing

On the process of systems integration The need to connect systems within a platform and across platforms has increased dramatically in recent years as the power of information has grown in importance.

System integration is the process of fusing information from component subsystems into a single picture while ensuring those subsystems function together. By defining standard interfaces and information protocols, information from various sensors is combined into one complete picture. A key element of system integration is working closely with the customer and defining what information is required by the various levels within the military structure and then defining the information required and its various sources.

Boeing has a long history of integrating systems from a multitude of global companies. Boeing has a robust systems engineering approach that defines the requirements and then verifies the functionality of the systems and their integration. The key is to have an agreed to schedule that has the time required to do the proper integration and testing to ensure the system being fielded will meet the customers’ expectations.

areas where technology has enabled a breakthrough or a need. The area of cyber security is one area where technology will drive new products.

PROTECTING THE SEA LANES: The P8I Poseidon is intended to conduct antisubmarine warfare (ASW) and shipping interdiction and to engage in an electronic intelligence (ELINT) role

boeing

tions and electronics. The private players have also been rapidly building capabilities in different spheres. Another advantage for India is the capability that IT and engineering companies are building in the field of avionics and engineering services. Boeing remains very optimistic about the long-term prospects for the Indian defence industry and will continue to expand its partnerships in India.

On the security concerns about the global supply chain Global supply chains are the way of the future. As our economies become more and more integrated the supply chain does as well. By having robust repair and sparing concepts this issue is easily managed.

TANK HUNTER: Boeing’s Apache Longbow gunship is one of the most potent anti-tank platforms in the world

www.geopolitics.in

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December 2012

DEF BIZ With an estimated 6,000 ballistic missiles outside the control of China, Russia, and NATO, the threat of a ‘rogue state’ like North Korea or Iran using an advanced missile system against the United States is mounting. In an effort to contain the menace from missile attacks the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense System, Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) Missile andTerminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) Weapon System successfully engaged in the first-ever test of all three

STSS-D

boost/ascent defence segment

midcourse defence segment

Missile delivers warhead into space

Warhead continues on its traject

defence method A Missile is blasted with high energy laser

Space Tracking and Surveillance System—Demonstrators.

Provides Accurate Tracks of Midcourse Re-entry Vehicles to the Shooter.

defence method B Kill vehicle collides with warhead “Blast to Kill”

1

Early warning satellite STSS idetifies a hostile missile

Interceptor missile delivers kill vehicle into space Aegis BMD Defeats short- to intermediaterange, unitary and separating, midcourse-phase, ballistic missile threats with the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3), as well as short-range ballistic missiles in the terminal phase with the SM-2

The Elements GRAPHIC: ARTWORKS

The system’s architecture includes: Networked sensors (including space-based)

Ground- and sea-based radars for target detection and tracking

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Ground- and sea-based interceptor missiles

Destroying a ballistic missile using either the force of a direct collision, called “hit-to-kill” technology, or an explosive blast fragmentation warhead December 2012

systems demonstrating the integrated capabilities of today's US regional missile defense systems.

These systems worked together to detect, track, engage and negate two ballistic missile targets and one cruise missile-like target during a complex, live-fire flight test conducted by the US Missile Defense Agency (MDA) at the Reagan Test Site on the Kwajalein Atoll in the South Pacific. Known as Flight Test Integrated-01, these different sensors

and weapon systems were integrated through the Command and Control, Battle Management, and Communications (C2BMC) system, also developed

by Lockheed Martin.

The C2BMC is the integrating element for the Ballistic Missile Defense System and links the various sensors and weapon systems.

Multi-tier Defence Missile defense technology being devel-

terminal defence segment ory without propulsion

oped, tested and deployed by the United States is designed to counter ballistic missiles of all ranges—short, medium, intermediate and long. Since ballistic missiles have different ranges, speeds, size and performance characteristics, the Ballistic Missile Defense System is an integrated, “layered” architecture that provides multiple opportunities to destroy missiles and their warheads before they can reach their targets.

Aegis

Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) is the seabased component of the Missile Defense Agency’s Ballistic Missile Defense System. The MDA and the Navy are jointly developing Aegis BMD as part of the United States’ Ballistic Missile Defense System.

Currently, a total of 30 Aegis BMD-equipped warships - 26 in the US Navy and four in the Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force - have the certified capability to engage ballistic missiles and perform long-range surveillance and tracking missions.

The number of US BMD ships is expected to increase to 32 by 2014.

Re-entry into atmosphere defence method C Warhead is shot down by missile like THAAD or PAC3

THAAD 2

Since 2006, the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) programme has successfully completed 12 flight tests, with ten-for-ten intercepts. THAAD and Aegis BMD are the only missile defense systems with the operational flexibility to intercept in both the endo- and exo-atmospheres.

3

Radar station identifies warhead and track its flight path

PAC3

The 'hit-to-kill' PAC-3 Missile is described by the American Missile Development Agency as 'the the world's most advanced, capable and powerful theater air defense missile'. It defeats the entire threat to the Patriot Air Defense System: tactical ballistic missiles carrying weapons of mass destruction, advanced cruise missiles and aircraft.

Ballistic Missile Defense System programme has completed 56 successful hit-to-kill intercepts in 71 flight test attempts since 2001, the MDA said.

5

Sea-Based X-Band Radar The SBX is a unique combination of an advanced X-band radar mounted on a mobile, ocean-going, semi-submersible platform that provides the BMDS with an extremely powerful and capable radar that can be positioned to cover any region of the globe.

Cobra Dane Upgrade Traveling wave tube fed phased-array, all-weather, long-range radar Provides midcourse coverage for the BMDS

Future safeguard

All three tested missile defense systems are expected to become part of the planned US missile shield in Europe by 2020, apart from protecting the continental part of the United States and vital US assets in other regions of the world.

4

HQ

1 Radar detects missile 2 Signal sent to satallite

A command

Control, battle management, and communications network providing the operational commanders with the needed links between the sensors and interceptor missiles. www.geopolitics.in

3

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HQ notified

4 Defence missile launched 5 Incomming missile destroyed

by THAAD or PAC December 2012

Continued from Page 15

“We want to be here for the long term� many airports using our aerobridges, quite a lot of our automobile companies using our automatic wire terminating machines.

We will bring in some of our other products also. We have very novel products for water treatment plants, also products for solid waste management systems, parking systems, industrial machinery in the long run and this is our plan. I think the idea is to go step-by-step and very carefully and be completely convinced we are here for the long term.

On the foray into the aviation sector As far as the aviation sector is concerned, we are completely clear that we have to meet our offset requirements of the government of India and as we said for most of the companies, offsets may be obligations but for us, they are an opportunity.

So, in the last several months, we have been in touch with several Indian companies to see how we can find synergies between what they are doing and what our demands are so that we can bring them up in front way into our supply chain for www.geopolitics.in

this aircraft. Our aim, as I said once again, is to find good companies, build long relationships, trust each other, build a cluster of companies who are into excellence into aerospace, and work this out.

As per the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP), you have very limited time period to respond to a Request for Proposal (RFP). So we want to do all our homework and backend work well before we even come to the RFP stages. This is our strategy. So at the moment, we have many - many options to study, evaluate, and select but if you do not do this now then in the compressed time period that we have in between to respond to an RFP, we can make mistakes and we may not be able to do the right thing. The idea is that we must do things which are not only good for the company.

On potential partners in India We have identified scope of work with several companies and we have started moving forward in coming to the next steps of Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs), etc. and we will have a process by which we will do our final session which will involve due diligence, compatibility issues, checking out everything else in a very calibrated and careful manner because all these relationships have to be for

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the long term. The aviation sector is an extremely expensive business and we cannot keep changing partners. So we better select our partners with care and have an understanding with them so that they can be our long-lasting friends. I think it will take us another six months.

On MoUs on the anvil At the moment, I am not certain whether we would announce any MoUs because that may not be the right thing to do because that presupposes certain decisions.

We would like to do this work on our own and once everything is clearer and something is in some tangible form, we will discuss our arrangements with everybody -but we do not want to do anything in anticipation.

There are certain things that the DPP says that you should not do. So we want to be in compliance with what the DPP says, what the general financial regulation says, which are good business practices. These are our self-imposed restraints we would like to have.

On the ShinMaywa US-2 amphibian aircraft In the defence sector, we have responded to an RFI of the Indian Navy which is for an amphibian aircraft, the ShinMaywa December 2012

DEFBIZ

ShinMaywa

ShinMaywa

Versatile flying boat: ShinMaywa has responded to an RFI of the Indian Navy with the US-2 amphibious aircraft which can be used for a variety of applications

US-2. This aircraft has got a lot of applications across various segments. As the country recognises the role of this aircraft, I am sure some of these roles will come up, particularly for disaster management. So, that is going on at its pace, with the government having to take its own decision in due course of time. I think it is a long process and is at a very early stage. This is a natural process which is as per the DPP which is a very good document.

On applications for internal security agencies We have not got into real aggressive marketing in India, since we have responded to an Indian Navy RFI, we have limited our discussion with the Ministry of Defence. But we are clear that there are applications of this aircraft, particularly for disaster management activities that are very appropriate because it lands in only 280 metres, takes off in 300 metres, it can carry 6 tonnes of cargo, and a 30-person rescue team. It is ideally suited for operations such as in cyclones, tsunamis, and that sort of things.

On civilian operations in India We began making aircraft in 1920 as a company and by the end of World War II; we had made 3500 aircraft, including the www.geopolitics.in

fastest fighter aircraft in the world at that time. Unfortunately, it did not enter the war because Japan had surrendered. After that, we had a long break and the company started making aircraft around 1968 or so. This is the latest version which was designed five years ago. This is the only aircraft that we have but apart from that, as a company, we do a lot of work for many majors -- we work for Airbus, for Boeing, we do work for Gulfstream making very sophisticated aircraft components.

This aircraft is only operated by the Japanese Navy. At the moment, they have five aircraft like this in service and only last year on December 27, 2011, the Japanese government relaxed its arms export policy to permit this aircraft to be exported, recognising that India was a potential partner for this project.

We have received queries from many countries, but as far as Japan is concerned, they have only agreed to share this technology and build a partnership only with India. I think because the two countries are developing, a special relationship now and that is one of the reasons that they must come through and as you know, this aircraft is very unique. Technology that this aircraft has got is as I may say is not state-of-art, it is ahead of the art. Nobody else has got it!

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On the cost of the projects These are all cost-plus projects. Since the government of Japan orders the aircraft on ShinMaywa just like the government of India orders on our PSUs, there is a simple system there. Whether you make one or you make ten, it does not make a difference. So we are not into it from a commercial point of view but once we work with India, I think the commercials will be important for us. But since this a project where Government of Japan has an interest to build a partnership with India, we ourselves have an interest in building a relationship with India not just as a vendor here. We want to be here as I said, for the long term. So I think these considerations will be of importance to us in structuring our future positioning in this country.

On ShinMaywa’s offsets strategy We have a very interesting offset strategy.

When we finally are ready, we will share it with you. It is about genuinely building capacity in this country. We look at offsets as an opportunity as all the rest of the world uses the word obligations. For us, it is an opportunity and we want to use that opportunity to build a good business in India, build a really good high-technology aerospace cluster which can help supplement the efforts of the HAL whose order books are very full. We have some plans but we should be able to augment the national capability in aircraft manufacturing in the private sector and this is our plan and we will work towards realising it.

On Rolls Royce’s partnership in the project In this particular project the engine used is the Rolls-Royce AE 2100J where J stands for Japan. I think the AE 2100 is also fitted on the C-130Js and there are large numbers of C-130Js flying in the world. They are also fitted on the Spartan 27.

December 2012

‘I want to build capabilities, capacities, partnerships…”

Kishore Jayaraman, President, Rolls-Royce, India and South Asia, talked to K Srinivasan about present business, potential partnerships and the future strategy of his company in India

DEFBIZ

iaf bae systems

On the defence offerings of Rolls-Royce As you know, the biggest order we have today is with HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited), that’s the Hawk trainers. That’s a good one. With HAL our history goes back to 1956 and technology transfer and licensing. They make the Jaguar engines here and they repair them. So, Jaguars are very prominent. I think if you take the Jaguars out, we are into the Hawk trainers.

That’s the latest with BAE Systems (who are supplying the trainers). So, that’s a second big one. The third big one in defence will be the Lockheed C 130J Super Hercules. There are six of them coming into the fleet. Well I’m hearing good things about the second lot, too. Let’s keep our fingers crossed. These are the three areas we are in, but apart from that, we partner with Northrop Grumman. We have all these helicopters and all these other products of Northrop Grumman. We have a very solid base with them. We are looking at some opportunities there.

On contribution to the helicopter segment We are looking at some helicopter deals.

There are some helicopter opportunities in this country. You know light utility helicopters…medium…We have good engines for all of these. We are trying to figure out how to participate. Primarily we were just going to do this latest one straight with HAL and I don’t know who they were going to give the whole thing to. We have worked with Agusta Westland. We have worked with them. I have personally met www.geopolitics.in

us air force

Versatile range: RollsRoyce engines power aircraft such as the (from top to bottom) C-130 Hercules, the BAE Hawk and the SEPECAT Jaguar

with Agusta Westland guys. Eurocopter, yes. And Bell. We want to look at the helicopter segment and then see what we can do in terms of working together with Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO), working together with HAL. We are trying to come up with a futuristic product. That is one of the areas I am seriously thinking about — how we should partner with local organisations and build something up for the future locally.

On the partnership with the DRDO We are trying to figure out how to do things on a country-to-country basis, company-to-company basis. There is one end, which is a transactional end of things, where you sell what you have already, into the market. Then there is a mid-end where you fit a product to a specific requirement, which means you have to make some modifications.

Then the third end of it is creating a product by itself. I think the third end of things has a lot of benefits in the long term in a country like India. Because, eventually people are just going to say, ‘I want to do it here; I want to invent it here; I want to make it here.’ And I think there are opportunities here and because Rolls -Royce being a technology and innovation company, it helps us do these kinds of partnerships.

Have we done anything? I don’t have anything to say to you today but there are a few opportunities that exist that I’m looking at and if those fructify, we’ll have a very interesting conversation next year.

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On the joint ventures (JVs) in India We will undoubtedly be looking at JVs. On the civil side, we have a 50-50 JV with HAL. We signed an agreement to do it together, to manufacture parts out of Bengaluru, for civil aviation. This was in 2010. We signed the agreement to do this JV to build it. It is in progress. So I think we should soon be able to announce something, which says that we’ve built it and it’s manufactured.

Now, we are waiting for the time we can formally open it.

We are waiting for that day when we open the doors for manufacturing in this country. It’s all indigenous, so that’s a good thing. I keep talking to TATAs. I am talking to Mahindras. The other day I met Civil Aviation Minister Ajit Singh. I was talking to him about what would be the thought process of civil aviation in this country in the future. And he was talking about the regional jets and how the Mahindras bought Gippsland. So, I think we have an opportunity there with our product already being able to fit.

Can we expand that and take it to the next level? So there are opportunities because what the country is looking for at the next stage is beyond just the narrowbodies and the wide-bodies. Those become our transactional planes. But then will we be able to do something and I really want to be a part of that if I can, to do something in terms of localisation, building capabilities, capacities and partnerships here. I think that’s what positions us in this country for the next 5-10 years. The future is not in just selling.

December 2012

HONEYWELL

US AIRFORCE

DEF BIZ

It’s Honeywell for the Jaguars

www.geopolitics.in

now.

A bit of history: • Jaguars were chosen in October 1978 as a part of Deep Penetration Strike Aircraft (DPSA) programme to replace its aging fleet of Hawker Hunter and Canberra. The first batch of of ex-RAF Jaguars was delivered in 1979.

• The system on these aircraft included NAVWASS (NAVigation Attack Weapon Aiming Sub-System) from Marconi-Elliot and a Head-Up display (HUD) from Smiths.

While the NAWVASS was the standard equipment on the loaned aircraft, the Royal Air Force wanted to upgrade these aircraft with a new inertial navigation system, Ferranti FIN 1024.

The IAF was invited to join the upgrade programme and share the development costs.

HAL

Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd is likely to finally go with the F125 IN. These were the engines on offer as a replacement for the IAF’s Jaguar deep penetration strike aircraft fleet. This Honeywell turbofan engine is likely to make it as a foreign military sales (FMS) contract. In middle October, the Air Force issued an RFP (request for proposal) to Honeywell Aerospace to “completely re-engine” 125 Jaguars and specified that it would provide F-125IN turbofan engines. The number is around 270 engines.

The Air Force is presently preparing for the first testflight of an upgraded Jaguar to “Darin-III” standards (see box). The up gradation has been undertaken by HAL by and includes next generation avionics that features a glass cockpit and autopilot. The test flight is expected any time

Nonetheless, as it usually happens in these cases, the IAF was offered the export variant FIN 1024E which was inferior to those installed on RAF’s Jaguars. The consequence was India’s decision to go for an indigenous upgrade. The original name was INDRA, but was later changed to DARIN (Display Attack Ranging Inertial Navigation).

As a first step HAL set up the Inertial nav-attack system Integration Organisation (IIO) in Bangalore. The retrofitted Jaguars received Initial Operation Clearance (IOC) in 1984 and Final Operational Clearance (FOC) in 1985.

After the first batch of 40 Jaguars from UK, there was licensed production by HAL. The problem with these indigenously-manufactured machines is that they aren’t the same thing as the first 40. It’s overweight, thanks to the systematic upgrades of avionics and weapon systems.

As a result it is now “underpowered” by the Adour-811 engines manufactured by Rolls-Royce. Several Jaguar crashes are believed to be a reflection of the engine

Darin III Success: Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) successfully carried out the maiden flight of avionics upgraded Jaguar aircraft “Darin III” on November 28. “This is significant moment for HAL as the upgrade will result in major operational improvement with regard to all weather air to ground, air to sea and air to air capabilities through incorporation of multi mode radar,” said Dr R K Tyagi, Chairman, HAL. The Darin III upgrade, with re-engining and changeover to higher capacity alternators can make the Jaguar one of the most potent aircraft in the arsenal of the IAF with an extended lifespan.

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December 2012

although the IAF has never released any of these reports.

The present project will see a “design and development” phase between HAL and Honeywell on the initial two fighters to be completed by 2015-16. Once that happens, HAL will take over the “complete re-engine” of the remaining 123 fighters. This is expected to be completed by 2023-24 by HAL under transfer of technology from Honeywell.

Honeywell has been asked to quote for the supply of 270 F125IN turbofan engines to replace the twin Rolls-Royce Adour Mk 821s on India’s 125strong fleet of Jaguar strike aircraft. The F125IN is 600 pounds lighter than the Adour and is expected to enable 25-per cent-shorter hot-andhigh takeoffs.

No one knows why RollsRoyce was also in the race to provide a more powerful replacement engines for the Jaguars withdrew its bid last year. Once that happened the DAC (Defence Acquisitions Council) approved moving the project on a single-vendor basis. Apparently, RR was keen to look at an upgrade to the existing Jaguar engines.

Their logic was that it would leave few issues with aircraft integration and also fit in with the infrastructure under use at HAL for the BAE Hawk advanced jet trainer engine.

However, when the RFP last year sought a new engine rather than an upgrade, RollsRoyce withdrew from the project.

The F125IN is designed in a manner that it can literally fit into existing Jaguar airframes with minor adjustments. Honeywell states that it would help extend the aircraft’s range by 36 per cent and has automatic restart after flame-out. The whole process will extend the Jaguar’s life by 15 years. www.geopolitics.in

AIRBUS

THE VICTOR: File picture of the Airbus A-330 at the IAF trials at the Himalayan airbase of Leh

It’s the A330 that will ‘tank’ the IAF Defence Ministry insiders aver that the Airbus A 330 MT has won over Russia’s Illyushin for the hotly-contested six tanker $ one billion tender that had been in the works for a while. This is the second tender for the refuellers, the first having been scrapped earlier.

Lifecycle costs have battered the Russian Illyushin with no clear cut reliable data available to really face it off against any challengers. There are no major global operators of these tankers barring Russia and the CIS and, of course, India and literally there is no data to corroborate either maintenance or lifecycle costs. And the feedback from the IAF has, to put it mildly, not been very complimentary.The commercial bids that were opened in early October showed as expected that the Russian Il-78 tanker was much cheaper than the A330. However, as anticipated when fuel, maintenance and lifecycle costs were included, the A 330 turned out to be the cheaper.

The first tender was floated in 2006. At that point in time, several manufacturers were approached including EADS, Lockheed Martin and Antonov of Ukraine.

While Antonov failed to qualify, Lockheed did not participate and Boeing withdrew from the competition leaving only the A330 and Il-78 in competition. The Airbus’ A330 Multi-Role Tanker/Transport (MRTT) was actually the preferred choice the first time around. However, it was at least 50 per cent more expensive than the Illyusin with a base price of over $150 million. The tender had to be scrapped when it was unacceptable to the Finance Ministry to go with the more expensive option.

So, there was a second RFP and strangely,

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Boeing did not bid despite having won the US bid by then. In fact, if they had, it would have been a real competition with the Boeing’s KC-767 being smaller than the A330 and apparently offering even more economical long-term operating costs, but it did not. So it was back to the Il 76 vs. the A330 MT. Boeing withdrawing was no surprise considering it was locked in a fierce and bitter battle for supremacy in the US Air Force tanker bid that they had first lost to Airbus. It had a new generation 767 under development but was waiting for the finalisation of the US rebid (that it finally won for the 179 tankers) and was unwilling to commit anywhere else till that was decided. Unfortunately, the bid ended before the USAF took a final call on the tanker deal.

One negative for the IAF is that the A 330 has nothing in common with the existing IAF fleet. But the upside is that India is full of Airbus planes and virtually every major commercial operator including Air India and Jet Airways have the A 330 in their fleet. What the Air Force can do is leverage the expertise of the national carrier for its fleet of A 330s. A good example would be Australia that hired their national carrier Qantas as the maintenance provider for the fleet, pretty easy considering the engine and the costs would be near identical. Optimised for high-altitude cruise and literally state-of-the-art with fly-by-wire technology and the latest avionics and having commonality with existing Indian fleets does hugely help. be able to win on cost. The IAF knows the IL-78 since it is using it and they have a fair idea of its operational and lifecycle costs.

December 2012

HEMANT RAWAT

DEF BIZ

Textron starts delivery of SFWs

Rafale fighter deal soon

Indian Blogsite Livefist has reported that “US firm Textron Defense Systems has begun deliveries of 512 CBU-105 sensor fuzed munitions to India. The company began deliveries of the weapon system to the U.S. Air Force in September -- it is a foreign military sale (FMS) to India and therefore needs to be routed through the applicable U.S. service -- and will complete deliveries by the end of the year. Deliveries to the Indian Air Force by the U.S. Air Force are likely to begin early 2013.” Independent sources confirmed that indeed the deliveries have begun.

In February last year, Textron Defense Systems, an operating unit of Textron

The multi-billion dollar contract between the Indian Air Force and Dassault Aviation of France for the supply of 126 Rafale fighters will be concluded in the next three to four months, the Hindu Businessline quoted India’s Ambassador to France, Rakesh Sood, as having said: “The Rafale deal is in the final stages and hopefully it should be concluded in the next 3 to 4 months.” The negotiation has moved slower than expected. However, “we are looking at 3 to 4 more months to conclude the agreement,” he said.

Systems announced that it had received a contract from the US Air Force to produce 512 CBU-105 Sensor Fuzed Weapon (SFW) units for the Government of India under a Foreign Military Sale agreement.

The total value of the contract was $257 million with $126 million funded immediately.

In a release at that time, Ellen Lord, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Textron Defense Systems, said: “We believe that SFW is truly the best area attack weapon in the world.

Through a process of rigorous research, testing and analysis, we have created a weapon that is reliable, safe and meets

blogs.afii.fr

DCNS completes first hull ring of third Barracuda DCNS’s Cherbourg centre has completed the first pressure hull ring for the third Barracuda-type nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) almost a month ahead of schedule. This is an important milestone for a particularly ambitious DCNSled programme. The first ring of Barracuda No. 3 SSN Tourville was completed less than two years after that of Barracuda No. 2, SSN Duguay-Trouin. The Barracuda construction programme is organised like a volume production programme with clearly defined cost, delivery date and performance targets. Three Barracuda submarines are currently under construction on a programme that is being carefully optimised and scheduled to make the best use of critical resources.

The first of the 21 steel rings making up

the pressure hull of a Barracuda submarine is actually ring No 7. Ring No. 7 will house the submarine’s powerplant. The Barracuda programme will make a vital contribution to the renewal of France’s naval forces and represents a significant proportion of the group’s production workload, with DCNS teams and facilities expected to work on the programme until 2027. In December 2006, French defence procurement agency DGA awarded the overall Barracuda contract to DCNS, appointing the group as programme prime contractor and Areva-TA as nuclear powerplant prime contractor. The firm order placed at the same time calls for the development and construction of first-ofclass SSN Suffren, the first of six Barracuda-type SSNs. The contract also covers through-life support for all six submarines during their first years of operational

US AIRFORCE

inventory, the SFW contains Textron Defense Systems’ BLU-108 submunition and smart SkeetTM warheads equipped with dual-mode passive infrared and active laser sensors. If a Skeet warhead does not detect a valid target over its lofted trajectory, one of its three safety modes will activate. The first two modes enable the Skeet to self-destruct after eight seconds from launch or within a 50-foot (15 meters) altitude above the ground.

Combined, these two features deliver greater than 99 per cent reliability. The Skeet’s third mode automatically renders the Skeet inoperable via self-deactivation within minutes of hitting the ground.

service. The second and third tranches, confirmed in 2009 and 2011 respectively, cover the construction of the second and third of type SSN Duguay-Trouin and SSN Tourville.

Between 2017 and 2027, Barracudatype SSNs will replace the Navy’s currentgeneration Rubis/Améthyste-class boats. www.geopolitics.in

512 CBU-105 sensor fuzed munitions

99% reliability

contract worth

$257.73-million The weapon is likely to be deployed from the IAF’s Jaguar strike aircraft and Su-30MKI air dominance fighters.

Barracuda mission capabilities will include intelligence gathering and special operations (by commandos and special forces), anti-surface and anti-submarine warfare, land strikes and participation in joint operations wherever the type’s interoperability and associated capabilities (discreet communications, tactical datalinks, etc.) are required. The weapons payload will include next-generation F21 heavyweight torpedoes, SM39 anti-ship missiles and MdCN naval cruise missiles.

Indian context In India, DCNS has signed a contract with Flash Forge India Pvt. Ltd., based in Visakhapatnam for the P-75 programme of the Indian Navy which produces Scorpene submarines.

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ROCKWELL COLLINS

QUOTE MARTIAL

DCNS

current clean battlefield standards.” The Textron Defense Systems’ combat-proven SFW is unique among munitions systems because of its redundant technologies for clean battlefield operation. SFW has been engineered to eliminate the risk of unacceptable harm to civilians or non-combatants. As a result, it is the only air-delivered weapon that meets the strict unexploded ordnance (UXO) criteria for cluster munitions -- requiring less than one percent UXO in intended operational environments -- set forth by the US Secretary of Defence in June 2008. “The first and only combat-proven clean battlefield weapon of its kind in the U.S. Air Force

“India is trying to update systems across navy, army and air force and that’s one big area The nation’s requirements are going to be for the longer term. No matter how hard we try, we cannot get a good insight that a local company can give in India.Tata will do a significant amount of work on our behalf in order to fulfill that contract.”

TC Chan, Rockwell Collins managing director for Asia Pacific on his company’s tie up with Tata Power bid for an Indian Air Force contract bidding to supply software defined radio in partnership with Tata Power Strategic Electronics Division.

December 2012

DEF BIZ COLD STATS France IS No. 4 in arms exports BOEING

Orders worth $8.4 billion in 2011 helped push France to the No 4 in over all arms exports according to a recent parliamentary report. The top three arms exporting nations of the world are US, Russia and Britain.

Among the countries that helped France reach the fourth spot were India and Malaysia not of which placed major order with the French defence companies in 2011, a year that saw a 27 per cent increase in value terms from 2010.

PRO ARMY/VIRENDER

The Chinook it is

File picture of Indo-French military exercise held in October 2011

According to the French defence ministry, between 2006 and 2011 the US had 44 per cent of the world market, Russia 14 per cent, Britain 11 per cent, France 8.5 per cent and Israel 5.5 per cent.

www.geopolitics.in

The iconic Chinook heavy-lift helicopters has beaten the other contender and will be part of the IAF fleet as the government announced that it has emerged as the cheaper option as compared to the Russian Mi-26 choppers when the commercial bids were finally opened in late September. What’s astonishing is that the military establishment has systematically used lifecycle and maintenance costs over the past few years in arriving at price point for various deals. Does the Chinook deal take that into consideration or is it a straight forward commercial bid where the Boeing machine has emerged as the cheaper option? If indeed the latter is the case, it would be astonishing for the Russians to routinely peg down prices that are then ramped up during renegotiations.

What the Ministry of Defence (MoD) said informally was that the Chinook was L-1, in other words the lowest bidder. But that was no clarity on what went into the L-1. In the case of the refuellers, life cycle and maintenance costs had given it the financial edge over the IL 78. Was that the case here too?

That would give the actual price of the Chinook considering both machines had cleared the extensive technical field trials conducted by the Indian Air Force (IAF). One report suggested, though, that it was lower both in direct cost as well as lifecycle costs. Another contradicted this and said both had been considered to arrive at the final price. So, one awaits a clarification by the Defence Ministry

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on how the bid was settled?

The CH-47Fs will feature reduced vibration, improved avionics and more powerful engines to improve mission performance and reduce operation and maintenance costs. The first CH-47F, an upgraded D model, took its maiden flight in 2001. The first production Fmodel was rolled out on June 15, 2006 at Boeing’s facility in Ridley Park, Pennsylvania, and first flew on October 23, 2006.The CH-47F is the current cargo/transport variant. It was designed to extend the service life of the Chinook class beyond 2030. Among its upgrades are the new 4,868-shaft-horsepower (3,630 kW) Honeywell engines, improved avionics, and an upgraded airframe with larger singlepiece sections to reduce part count and need for fasteners. The new milled construction will reduce vibrations, eliminate points of joint flexing and reduce the need for inspections and repairs and reduce maintenance costs. It is also expected to increase service life. The CH-47F can fly at speeds of over 175 mph (282 km/h) with a payload of more than 11,100 kg. The improved avionics include a Rockwell Collins Common Avionics Architecture System (CAAS) cockpit and BAE Systems’ Digital Advanced Flight Control System (DAFCS). Of course, with the Chinooks being operated by around 20 countries, the systems are country specific and vary from delivery to delivery. But on one basic parameter, they are Continued on Page 30

December 2012

DEF BIZ BOEING

Continued from Page 28

The Chinook... unmatched across the board: for heavy-lift assault, troop movement, logistics support, aerial battlefield recovery and special operations. No surprise it was used extensively in Iraq and Afghanistan. It can refuel in mid-air.

The 15 heavy lift helicopters will replace the present Mi-26 fleet (these vintage 1980s choppers have outlived their utility and spares have

been a major issue with them). Capable of carrying more than 45 fully equipped troops, the deliveries are expected to be completed within five years of the contract being signed.

For Boeing this deal is a real feather in the cap and the end of a dream six weeks in which it has won the second major helicopter deal awarded by the IAF. In October, the MoD finalised the selection of 22 Boeing AH-64D Apache

helicopters over Russia’s Mi-28s in its $1.3 billion heavy duty attack helicopter programme.

American defence firms have so far bagged deals to supply 10 C-17 heavy-lift aircraft worth US $4.1 billion, 12 P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft for US $3.1 billion, 22 Apache attack helicopters for US $1.4 billion along with successful sales of Harpoon and other

missiles to the Navy and the IAF. As far as helicopters go, about 1000 choppers are likely to be inducted in the next twenty years. These include: 440 light-utility and observation, 90 naval multi-role, 65 light combat , 22 heavy-duty attack, 139 medium-lift and 15 heavy-lift for the moment.

www.geopolitics.in

aVIONICS HUB: Defence Minister AK Antony, Kerala Chief Minister Oommen Chandy with HAL Chairman RK Tyagi at the inaugural function

Automatic Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) Radar, Electronic Warfare (EW) Suite, Communication and Navigation equipments besides other indigenous projects like Softnet Defined Radio, Interrogate Friend-Foe (IFF) Mark-XII. The facilities would also be used for various upcoming projects like Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA), Multirole Transport Aircraft (MTA), Light Utility Helicopter (LUH), Light Combat Helicopter (LCH), Medium Lift Helicopter (MLH), Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV).

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HAL

Defence Minister A K Antony innagurated a brand new Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) factory to manufacture advanced avionics for aircraft and helicopters in mid-November: Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. Strategic Electronics Factory. The foundation stone for the construction of the factory buildings was laid by Antony in 2008.

“Avionics plays a major role in functioning of modern aircraft and contributes significantly to the value of an aircraft/ helicopter. Considering huge potential of the Avionics systems in the coming years, a new, state-of-theart manufacturing facility for a variety of Avionics has been established at Kasaragod. This would result in better operational effectiveness and improved customer satisfaction,” Chairman R K Tyagi, told journalists.

The factory will produce Airborne Special Purpose Computers like Mission computer, Display Processor, Radar Computers, Open Architect Mission computer, etc. for SU-30, LCA, MiG-27 upgrade that have been taken up at this factory. This factory will be further expanded in Phase-II to undertake the manufacture of avionics for medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) like

DPR/MOD

Avionics at Kasargod

“Phase-II will undertake the manufacture of Avionics for medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) like Automatic Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) Radar, Electronic Warfare (EW) Suite, Communication and Navigation equipments besides other indigenous projects like Softnet Defined Radio, Interrogate Friend-Foe (IFF) Mark-XII etc.,” HAL officals stated.

December 2012

Boeing delivered the fifth production Poseidon aircraft to the US Navy. The P-8A is one of 24 low-rate initial production (LRIP) maritime patrol aircraft that Boeing is building for the Navy as part of contracts awarded in 2011 and 2012.

“This is our final P-8A delivery of the year; we’ll ramp up to 12 deliveries, including P-8I aircraft for India, in 2013,” said Chuck Dabundo, Boeing Vice President and P-8 Programme Manager. “Our in-line production approach, which draws on processes developed on the company’s commercial and military programmes, has been key to our ability to increase production rates while reducing costs.” The next three Poseidon aircraft are undergoing mission systems installation and checkout in Seattle, and two more are in final assembly in Renton, Washington. Boeing will deliver its sixth production P-8A to the Navy in early 2013.

The US Navy plans to purchase 117 of the Boeing 737-based P-8A anti-submarine warfare, anti-surface warfare, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft to replace its P-3 fleet. As part of the LRIP contracts, Boeing is also providing aircrew

US AIRFORCE

and maintenance training for the Navy, in addition to logistics support, spares, support equipment and tools.

Indian context The Indian navy was the first international customer for the P-8. Boeing signed a contract January 1, 2009, to deliver eight long-range maritime reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft to the Indian Navy. Boeing will deliver the first P-8I within 48 months of contract signing, and the remaining seven by 2015. India’s immediate need is for eight aircraft, but Boeing believes there is long-term potential for additional aircraft sales.

Lockheed delivers three F-35Bs to US Marines Three Lockheed Martin F-35B short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft were officially delivered to the US Marine Corps during ceremonies at Marine Corps Air Station Yuma, Arizona recently. The three jets are assigned to Marine Fighter Attack Squadron 121 residing with the host Marine Aircraft Group 13.

“The F-35B is the world’s only fifth generation, supersonic, stealthy combat aircraft that can also hover, take off and land virtually anywhere Marines are in acwww.geopolitics.in

tion. Through the hard work and dedication of the military and contractor team, the F-35B will define the future of Marine Corps aviation” said Bob Stevens, Lockheed Martin chairman and chief executive officer.

Official welcoming ceremonies at Yuma marked the handover of the jets to the Marines. The delivery of the first three operational-coded fifth generation F-35B STOVL fighters marks the beginning of STOVL tactical operational training at Air Station Yuma.

These three aircraft

increase the number of STOVL aircraft delivered to the Marine Corps to 16 and bring the total number of F-35s delivered in 2012 to 20.

Currently, 13 Marine Corps STOVLs are assigned to the 2nd Marine Aircraft Wing’s Marine Fighter/Attack Training Squadron 501 at Eglin AFB, Fla., supporting pilot and maintainer training.

The F-35 Lightning II is a fifth generation fighter, combining advanced stealth with fighter speed and Continued on Page 32

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PIB

5th production Boeing P-8A Poseidon delivered

TIES ‘NOT’ AFFECTED India and Singapore have been cooperating in land-based military exercises in which Singapore troops have been using Indian locations.

The two countries inked a five-year defence cooperation pact in 2007 that allows Singapore troops to exercise regularly on Indian territory and airspace. This year, the Singapore Army held a joint artillery exercise in Maharashtra, and the air forces of the two countries held joint drills in West Bengal. India wants to increase strategic and defence ties to match the growing Chinese influence in the region. Singapore, in turn, is looking to tap the Indian defence market. As part of that endeavour, Singapore Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen was in Delhi in early November. “Actually no, it has not affected ties…

Singapore has a working mechanism where even defence companies recognise that they have to work themselves as per international norms and ST Kinetics is well poised to defend itself. I won’t be bringing it up with Indian counterparts” and “I don’t think we need to say anything on their behalf.”

(Picture of Defence Minister A K Antony receiving his Singapore counterpart at South Block.)

December 2012

US MARINE

NORTHROP GRUMMAN

DEF BIZ

Continued from Page 31

Lockheed delivers...

INDIAN CONTEXT There were reports that Lockheed Martin gave a presentation on the F-35 to the Indian Navy for use on the new generation of aircraft carriers being built for it.

Full-Rate Production of NG LITENING SE Pods begins

NORTHROP GRUMMAN

agility, fully fused sensor information, networkenabled operations and advanced sustainment.

Three variants of the F-35 will replace the A-10 and F-16 for the US Air Force, the F/A-18 for the US Navy, the F/A-18 and AV-8B Harrier for the US Marine Corps, and a variety of fighters for at least nine other countries. Lockheed Martin is developing the F-35 with its principal industrial partners, Northrop Grumman and BAE Systems.

Northrop Grumman Corporation has received a $71.5 million order from the US Air Force to begin full-rate production of LITENING SE advanced targeting pods and spares for the Advanced Targeting Pod - Sensor Enhancement (ATP-SE) programme.

The LITENING SE pylon-mounted targeting pod is capable of producing infrared and visible imagery of both airborne and ground targets, enabling pilots to detect, acquire, auto-track and identify targets for accurate delivery of both conventional and precision-guided weapons. The pod

Continued from Page 15

JV with QuEST Global

Nieminen is MD

The new entity will manufacture and supply assemblies for the technology intense commercial aerostructures market. As part of the agreement, Saab will hold 26 per cent stake in line with their objective to strengthen its strategic presence in India. The new entity called “Aero Assemblies India”, will be located in Belgaum, Karnataka, where QuEST Global manages a fully operational Special Economic Zone and houses the QuEST Global Manufacturing division. Facilities

Saab has appointed Niklas Nieminen as Managing Director of Saab India Technologies Pvt Ltd. Over the past 14 years he has held a number of crucial positions in Saab. For the past four years Niklas has been head of Strategy and Programme Management at Saab’s business unit Training and Simulation. Niklas moved to India earlier this year to understand the market dynamics.

www.geopolitics.in

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provides laser ranging and designation to support weapon delivery, navigational functions, and recording and data-linking of generated imagery and data.

Building on the successful LITENING G4, the enhanced LITENING SE includes technologies such as true 1Kx1K forwardlooking infrared and charge-coupled device sensors, short-wave infrared laser imaging sensor, color symbology, tracker improvements, enhanced zoom and two-way multiband data link. These advancements deliver more accurate target identification and location at longer ranges than previous generations of LITENING targeting pod systems while reducing pilot workload.

INDIAN CONTEXT Indian uses a version of the Litening pod in fighters such as the Sukhoi Su-30 MKI HAL Tejas SEPECAT Jaguar Dassault Mirage 2000 and Mikoyan MiG-29K.

for the joint venture will be developed through 2013 and the unit will initially become operational with about 50 employees and is expected to ramp up to over 400 in the near future. The new entity has been established with a vision to develop a robust aerospace business that is focused on build-to-print assemblies for the emerging market opportunities in India. In addition to this, its long term goal will be to emerge as an independent unit that would become a cost effective solution provider of choice in the aero structure assemblies’ space.

December 2012

g NUMBERSGAME

500

28,000

inducted into the BSF

tonnes displaced by INS Viraat

HEMANT RAWAT

NAVY

The Border Security Force (BSF) constables were inducted in Kashmir at the Humhama training centre on the outskirts of Srinagar. They hailed from all over the country including Jammu and Kashmir, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Delhi, Haryana and Bihar. Their preparation included training in counter-insurgency, anti-terrorism, commando operations, field engineering, field craft and minor tactics. Border Security Force is one of the largest paramilitary forces in the world responsible for guarding the vast and volatile borders of the country not only against trans-border criminals but also against heavily armed trans-border terrorism as well. Though guarding the borders is the prime commitment, security forces remain heavily and decisively involved in the interior as well as in combating insurgency and militancy in various parts of the country.

ITBP

Which is at the Cochin Shipyard (CSL) for its periodic refit expected to last at least three months. The refit will involve cleaning of the hull and underwater equipment which will also be probed for corrosion and signs of wear and tear.

If need be the weak hull parts will be strengthened with fresh metal plates. A fresh coat of corrosion-resistant paint will also be applied to the hull of the

566 50,000

Starting with just 1,500 men when it was set up soon after the 1962 Indo-China war Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) will become 90,000 strong by 2015. The force has been doubling its personnel over the www.geopolitics.in

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carrier. The rudder, propeller and other underwater parts of the ship will be checked and made failsafe. The INS Viraat became part of the Indian Navy in 1987 who acquired it from the Royal Navy. It is expected to be in service till 2019 by which time Indian hopes to gain possession of the INS Vikramaditya and perhaps even the indigenously-made Indian Aircraft Carrier.

security men killed on duty The figure includes personnel from the state police and paramilitary forces including the BSF, CRPF and NSG in the past one year. The casualties were sustained during operations and attacks on the security forces. With 133 casualties, Uttar Pradesh Police topped the list followed by BSF (85), CRPF (57) and Jharkhand Police (43).

personnel for ITBP last few years rising from 36,000 in 2004 to 77,000 this year. These sentinels of the eastern Indo-China border occupy outposts at altitudes ranging from 9,000 feet to 18,600 feet from Karakoram Pass in Ladakh to Jechap La in Arunachal Pradesh, covering a distance of 3,488 kms.

December 2012

g NUMBERSGAME

21,000 CISF

CISF men to be taken off airport duty

17

lakh paramilitary troops to benefit

From a move by the Cabinet to pronounce retired personnel from Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) as “ex-central police personnel” and give them benefits that usually accrue to ex-servicemen from the armed forces.

The move would entitle them to quotas in jobs, higher education for their wards

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Kuki outfits threaten secession The threat of a return to violent struggle has been issued by the Kuki National Organisation (KNO), which represents the 16 groups. Though the group wants to secede from Manipur and a solution within the framework of the Constitution, the demand could throw a spanner in the works for the talks between peace talks between the Centre and Naga insurgent group, NSCN (I-M). The seven-yearold Suspension of Operations (SoO) pact between the KNO and the Indian government ended on November 22. Formed in 1988, the KNO and its armed wing, Kuki National Army, waged an armed struggle for statehood till 2005 when a Suspension of Operations (SoO) was signed between it and the Centre.

2,000

and medical benefits. This effort is seen as part of measures to bring down attrition in the paramilitary forces. Although these measures are likely to assuage them they also want one-rank-one-pension like the Army.

infiltrate through Indo-Nepal border

As avenues for infiltration dry on the western border Pakistan has now chosen to sneak in infiltrators through the porous Indo-Nepal border according to a report in the Deccan Herald apart from 107 males and 43 families infiltrated

www.geopolitics.in

of the CISF at the airports. The CISF though is not about to give up without a fight and has pointed out that in the past 12 years of its guarding airports there hasn’t been any incident. CISF officials have also pointed out that it has better co-ordination with intelligence agencies as it falls under the purview of the Ministry of Home Affairs.

HEMANT RAWAT

A special force could soon be constituted to guard airports as the Centre mulls a recommendation of the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO). The move could mean the end of the mandate of the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) to guard airports. An Aviation Security Force (ASF) under the Ministry of Civil Aviation (MCA) could take the place

16

through the Nepal border till October.

This new route through the Indian border with Nepal is now favoured by Pakistani handlers as it steers clear of stringent scrutiny. The long-term plan seems to be to sneak in entire families to create mass protests and tension and other forms of subversive activities.

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to protect K’taka industries

Karnataka’s Deputy Chief Minister and Minister for Home R Ashok has announced the formation of a State Industrial Security Force (SISF) on the lines of the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF). These forces, oganised into three battalions, would guard important dams, information technology companies, and power stations. With over 165,000 troops CISF is the largest industrial security force in the world and the government plans to further increase its numbers so it will soon touch the 200,000-man mark over the next two-three years.

December 2012

Integrating Reso an Integrated Response The ongoing  Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) necessitates an integrated approach of all our military and paramilitary wings in evolving common logistic concepts so as to procure and utilise resources jointly, argues Vijainder K Thakur

www.geopolitics.in

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December 2012

g

urces for

INTERNALSECURITY

COVERSTORY

US NAVY

C

ontrary to the growing global trend of the integration of the resources of Armed Forces (AFs), using common weapons and other support systems and common provisioning of spares for the common systems, in India, each Service continues to plan and procure weapons, logistics and communication systems in isolation. An integrated approach is limited to infrastructure such as buildings and postal services.

As noted military analyst Brigadier Vinod Anand says, apart from the lack of inter-linkages between the development plans of defence requirements, the three Services have not evolved a common logistics doctrine and philosophy of logistics support. There is limited interaction and intercommunication among the three Services on matters of logistics. The result is that there is a multiplicity in logistics or procurement agencies, each mostly working on its own, thus leading to increased costs. Besides, there is a lack of standardisation and codification, leading to duplication and high inventories.

Most of the weapons and equipment in each Service is specialised, but a significantly large amount is common. The inventory of common systems is limited, but the quantity of common equipment in use

DPR/MOD

VIRENDER/ARMY PRO

COLLECTIVE ENDEAVOUR: The Services could reap a number of benefits by employing an integrated approach to procurement as the US Armed Forces do

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December 2012

g US AIRFORCE

DRDO

COVERSTORY

Military Logistics Systems: The Uk In the year 2000, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in the UK created the Defence Logistics Organisation, making it responsible for supporting the armed forces throughout the various stages of an operation or exercise; from training, deployment, in-theatre training and conduct of operations, through to recovery and recuperation ready for redeployment. Led by the Chief of Defence Logistics, a four-star officer, the DLO maintained and upgraded military equipment and coordinated its storage and distribution. On April ,1 2007, the DLO was merged with the Defence Procurement Agency to form a new organisation called Defence Equipment and Support. Its responsibilities are: • To develop a unified logistics organisation.

• To harmonise logistics systems and spread best practices.

• To develop a common approach to support front-line forces without diluting the diversity necessary to support operations at sea, on land and in the air.

• To deliver the benefits of Smart Procurement Initiative (responsive, appropriate and economic procurement) within the logistics area.

• To ensure a common approach to industry in the support area.

www.geopolitics.in

JOINT ATTEMPT: Developed by the DRDO, Ordnance Factories Board and Bharat Electronics Limited, the Akash is a surface-to-air missile with a range of 30 km

is huge. Systems common to the three Services and to some extent the entire spectrum of armed forces include helicopters, surface-to-air missiles, surface-to-surface missiles, UAVs, radar systems, small arms, transport (including the infamous TATRA trucks), satellites and communication equipment.

As things stand, each service independently procures these weapon systems resulting in a duplication of procurement and provisioning effort, poor utilisation of inventory, and higher costs because of smaller order quantities. Currently, there are no mechanisms in place to coordinate selection and procurements.

At times, the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) has shouldered the responsibility of a Common System Procurement Agency, but there are two problems. One is that the absence of the private sector in defense production makes DRDO the de-facto vendor for all common systems purchased by the three Services.

Clearly there is a huge conflict of interest in DRDO being the vendor and procurement agency for the customer at the same time!

Second, even when a weapon system is being procured from abroad, the absence of an integrated institution allows the DRDO to insert itself as a middleman using Transfer of Technology (ToT) and licence production as a convincing cover. The same is the case with the Hindustan Aeronautical

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Limited (HAL). It is not surprising, therefore, that the DRDO and HAL are viewed by the AFs as middleman traders, rather than premium agencies for developing leading-edge defence technology.

Viewed thus, there is a need for “Independent Procurement and Provisioning”.

Integrated agencies need to be created to identify and purchase common systems and provision their spares, but care must be taken to ensure that the resultant organisations do not start functioning as additional bureaucratic layers, given the fact that the current Defence Procurement Process is far too complicated and long-winded already. We require proactive organisations that spot emerging technology trends, suggest re-equipping, steer the drafting of Joint Services Qualitative Requirements (JSQRs) and joint evaluation by the AFs, procures common weapon system and provision their maintenance spares.

For instance, modern weapon systems increasingly use off-the-shelf commercial electronics: processors, inertial and satellite navigation modules, and sensors, including optical sensors. A light general purpose helicopter common to the three Services, like the ALH Dhruv, could use a lot of electronic and optical sub-assemblies that are fitted on a specialised attack helicopter used by the Army. Indeed, it is not inconceivable that there could December 2012

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Military Logistics Systems: The USA

HEMANT RAWAT

COVERSTORY

INDIGENOUS EFFORT: The development of the Light Combat Helicopter was hastened as it was based on the Dhruv platform

be commonality in electronics between a smartphone and fighter aircraft: GPS module, alignment sensors, etc.

Not only is there an urgent need for integrated procurement and provisioning of common weapon systems, there is also a need to identify common sub-systems between the three Services. The major common weapon systems currently equipping more than one Service include missiles (BrahMos, Prithvi, Akash) and helicopters (Dhruv ALH, UAVs, Searcher Mk 2, Heron Mk 1). Major weapon systems that are planned to be inducted into more than one service include missiles (Barak-8/ MRSAM/LR-SAM, DRDO MBDA Maitri SRSAM), helicopters (Rudra/Dhruv WSI, HAL light-utility helicopter, light utility and observation helicopters), and mini UAVs for Indian Air Force (IAF) and Indian Navy (IN), Upgraded Searcher Mk2, Upgraded Heron, Rustom 2 MALE UAV).

Besides, the common system approach needs to be encouraged to ensure the process of standardisation. Introduction of standards across the Services, especially in support systems such as transports, small arms, ammunition, would increase the number of systems common to the three Services.

Western nations have gone to the extent of standardising the ammunition used in naval, artillery and tank guns and using common assemblies and sub-assemblies www.geopolitics.in

so that requirements of stocking spare parts and maintenance are reduced. The system has obvious advantages. Increasing the number of common weapon systems without reducing combat efficiency, procuring them through a single agency, and integrated provisioning of spares for the common systems has considerable cost effectiveness. Order quantities would be large, and with longer and bigger production runs manufacturers would be in a position to offer more competitive pricing.

“Cross Utilisation of Inventory” is also cost effective. Some forms of external aggressions may not require a response from all the services. Take Kargil, for example.

The attack was on a relatively small territory. In such scenarios, common weapon system inventory (precision-guided ammunition, light helicopters, UAVs) could be quickly transferred to the service that needs them to repulse aggression, instead of being forced to purchase from outside at exorbitant prices.

India can learn some lessons on integrated logistics from the countries such as the United States and Great Britain. In the US, a common Defence Logistic Agency (DLA) provides supply support and technical and logistics services to all branches of the military and some civilian agencies since 1977. The DLA remains in the loop through the entire procurement and provisioning process, starting with planContinued on page 44

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The US Armed Forces have a common Defence Logistic Agency (DLA).

Established in 1977, the DLA provides the US Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, other federal agencies, and combined and allied forces with the full spectrum of logistics, acquisition and technical services. The Agency sources and provides nearly 100 per cent of the consumable items that America’s military forces need to operate—from food, fuel and energy, to uniforms, medical supplies, and construction and barrier equipment. DLA also supplies more than 84 per cent of the military’s spare parts. In addition, the Agency manages the reutilisation of military equipment, provides catalogs and other logistics information products, and offers document automation and production services. The following facts about the DLA are worth noting: •

• • • • • • •

•

•

In FY 2011 DLA provided $46.1 billion in sales and revenue. This along with the dollar value of services provided, would rank the Agency in the top 10 percentile of the Fortune 500.

Employs nearly 27,000 civilian and military employees.

Supports more than 2,210 weapon systems.

Manages nine supply chains and 5 million items.

Processes on average 109,751 requisitions and more than 8,985 contract actions a day.

Operates in 48 states and 28 countries.

Processes nearly111,300 requisitions and more than 11,000 contract actions a day.

Manages 26 distribution depots worldwide. Co-locating with Warfighters puts supplies where they are most needed and drives DLA’s warehousing strategy.

Supports humanitarian relief efforts at home and abroad. DLA support to the Japanese earthquake in 2011 totals more than $13.9 million to date. It played a big supporting role in the recent Hurricane Sandy, which devastated parts of the northeastern US. FY 2011 Foreign Military Sales totaled $2.4 billion, supporting the security of 110 of America’s allied nations.

December 2012

Brahmos Missile BrahMos is a supersonic cruise missile jointly developed by Russia and India. It can be launched from ships, aircraft or mobile land-based launcher or submarine to attack land and sea targets.

It is a joint venture between India's Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroeyenia, which have together formed the BrahMos Aerospace Private Limited.

Outstanding Capabilities • Supersonic cruise • Ability to strike targets at extremely short ranges of 25 kms.

• Supersonic manoeuvring.

• Target discrimination in LACM mode.

• Salvo fire against land and sea based targets with target assignment and automatic reassignment to ensure destruction of a group of targets.

• Outstanding accuracy. Can hit a 1.5m x 1.5m target at max range.

Unlike a conventional cruise missile, like the Tomahawk, which flies at subsonic speeds and hugs the terrain to avoid detection the BrahMos soars high up and

accelerates to supersonic speeds quickly allowing its ramjet engine to kick in and sustain its Mach 2.8 cruise towards the target. When over the target it acquires an independent (Passive / Active) lock on it and rams down onto it with high kinetic energy. Since the BrahMos is traveling at three times the speed of a conventional subsonic cruise missile, consequently it hits the target with nine times more destructive force. Eighty per cent of the missiles are made in Russia, including their liquid ramjet engine and the radar seeker.

DRDO makes the launcher and control system of the missile.

BrahMos Variants The BrahMos was initially developed as an anti-ship missile to equip IN warships, and inducted in Service. The missile can be launched either in vertical or inclined position and will cover 360 degrees.

drdo

VERSATILE WEAPON: Initially developed as an anti-ship missile the BrahMos cruise missile has spawned a multitude of variants

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HEMANT RAWAT

Current Common weapon Systems

Land Attack Cruise Missile (LACM) The missile has been successfully fired from a ship against a land target. The Navy has also raised mobile coastal batteries equipped with the missile for use against ships.

Air-Launched Version An air-launched version of the missile is being developed for the SU-30 MKI IAF fighter fleet.

Airborne Variant PTI reported that the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) had cleared a `6,000 crore proposal to procure over 200 airlaunched versions of the BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles for the IAF. Lighter ALCM variant for use on FGFA and MiG-29K BrahMos Aerospace is working on a sub 2-tonne variant of the missile that could be carried by Rafale MMRCA aircraft when they are inducted in the IAF.

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MULTIROLE CHOPPER: First announced in 1984, the Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopter now serves with the Army, the Air Force, the Navy and the BSF

Dhruv—Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) The Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) makes an interesting case study.

It should have been a fine example of the cost efficiencies accruing from joint procurement of a high value common system, but isn’t. The Dhruv is currently in service with the IAF, IA, IN and border security force, as also several national and state agencies.

The Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) programme was first announced in November 1984 against requirement projected by the IAF and the Navy, The helicopter was designed with assistance from Messerschmitt-Bölkow-Blohm. The first prototype flew in August 1992. The project was completed in June 2001 at a cost of `2,488 crore of which the Army’s share was `809 crore.

Design Features The Dhruv is of conventional design with a high tail boom that allows easy access to the rear doors. It uses composites extensively to reduce weight. Nearly 29 per cent of it empty weight (60 per cent of the airframe surface) comprises composites.

The aircraft is powered by twin turbo-shaft engines mounted above the cabin and drive a four-blade composite main rotor.

The main rotor can be manually folded; the blades are mounted between carbonfibre-reinforced plates, the rotor head is constructed from fibre elastomers.

Avionics The aircraft is equipped with an SFIM Inc

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FORCE MULTIPLIERS: UAVs such as the Heron (left) and the American Raven (below) can perform valuable reconnaissance and target acquisition functions

INTERNALSECURITY

four-axis automatic flight control system. Avionics systems include an HF/UHF communications radio, IFF recognition, Doppler navigation, and a radio altimeter; weather radar and the Omega navigation system were options for the naval variant.

Engines Turbomeca TM 333-2B2 The helicopter was initially powered by two Turbomeca TM 333-2B2 turboshaft producing 746 kW (1000 shp). However, the performance of the helicopter with the B2 engines fell short of QR. The ALH was not able to fly above 5000 metres, though the Army’s requirement stipulated up to 6,500 metres. The vibration level at extreme altitudes was not within the acceptable limits.

Shakti Engines Dhruv Mk 3, the latest version of the helicopter, uses two more powerful Shakti engines jointly developed by HAL and Turbomeca producing 900 kW (1,200 shp).

Orders In September 1995, the Army projected a requirement of 99 helicopters to be inducted by 2007, which was later scaled down to 40. In October 2007, a Dhruv Mk 3 flew to an altitude of 27,500 ft in Siachen Rudra—weaponised Dhruv A weaponised version of Dhruv, the Rudra, is equipped with Forward Looking Infra Red and Thermal Imaging Sights Interface, a 20 mm turret gun, 70 mm rocket pods, Anti-Tank-Guided Missiles and Airto-Air Missiles. It has a SAAB-supplied Integrated Defensive Aids Suite (IDAS) with Electronic Warfare self-protection.

www.geopolitics.in

Heron and Searcher UAVs All the three services are using Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for reconnaissance, surveillance and intelligence gathering.

The IAF currently operates about 100 Israeli-made Searcher II drones, as well as Heron drones, for reconnaissance and surveillance purposes.

Indian Army operates around 50 Heron drones. The Navy has three operational UAV squadrons and is in the process of raising its fourth.

Each squadron is established for eight Searcher II and six Heron UAVs each.

The Indian Navy is looking at the feasibility of equipping its warships with UAVs as shore based UAVs are constrained by slow speed and long transit time to area of interest and limited data link range, payload and weapon capability.

Heron 1 The Heron is a Medium Altitude Long Endurance UAV powered by a a single Rotax 914 turbo aircraft engine with 85.79kW output.

The UAV is manufactured by IAI at its Malat division. It is capable of capturing and relaying real-time images of locations and targets to a shore-

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Performance The UAV has a wingspan of 16.6 meters (58.4 feet), max take-off weight of 1.2 tonnes, and carries a 250 kg (550 pound) payload. It has an operating ceiling of 30,000 ft, range of 350 km and a max endurance of up to 50 hours (depending on payload carried). It can climb at the rate of 150 m a minute and fly at a maximum speed of 207 km/h.

Sensors The Heron navigates using an internal GPS receiver. It can operate in pre-programmed flight mode, under manual control using LOS data link to Ground Control. The LOS link can use groundbased relay stations.

Herons are equipped with state-ofthe-art synthetic aperture radar (SAR), electro-optic (EO) and infrared (IR) sensors. The SAR, manufactured by IAI subsidiary ELTA system, is equipped with GMTI to detect ground vehicles. The radar can be used to identify vessels from very long distances and use silhouette target acquisition.

An onboard AIS gathers details of ships such as vessel type, vessel name and destination.

Searcher Mark-II UAV The Searcher Mk II is a multimission tactical UAV system used for surveillance, reconnaissance, target acquisition, artillery adjustment and damage assessment.

Built using composites to reduce its radar signature, it is powered by a fourstroke engine for low audio detection and is capable of shorttake off and landing with an endurance of about 20 hours covering over a hundred-mile area. It can operate in adverse weather conditions and its low noise signature when cruising at altitude helps it evade detection. The UAV has fully redundant avionics including two simultaneous Automatic Takeoff and Landing (ATOL) systems for maximal safety.

Aero Vironmen

iAI

based control room or a ship.

December 2012

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Current Common weapon SYSTEMS

HEMANT RAWAT

Future Common Weapon Systems — Missiles Barak-8 / MR-SAM / LR-SAM Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) has undertaken joint development of Long Range Surface-to-Air Missile (LRSAM) for the Indian Navy and Medium-Range Surface-to-Air Missile (MRSAM) for Indian Air Force with M/s Israel Aircraft Industries (IAI), Israel. The Indian Army has also shown interest in the missile. On February 27, 2009 India signed a $1.4 billion defencce contract with IAI to co-develop an Air Defence System for the IAF and Indian Navy.

The contract includes a 30 per cent offset clause under which Israel will procure military or aviation products and services from India, and invest in Indian defence companies. Under this clause IAI will make purchases from Mumbai-based Tata Advanced Systems (TASL), which will partner IAI to develop missiles, drones, radars, electronic warfare systems and homeland security systems–all areas of Israeli defence industry specialisation.

India is making part payment on the deal during the development period, and the balance during the 66-month delivery period, which is slated to begin 90 months from the date the advance payment is received.

• Two missiles will be developed under the project — MR-SAM to replace the SA M-3 Pechora AD missiles of the IAF, and LR-SAM for the Indian Navy to equip its new warships.

• The LR-SAM will be the successor to the Barak missile that currently equips many Navy ships.

• Deliveries are expected to start in 2017.

Missile Characteristics Akash is a ramjet-powered, 720 kg, 5.78metre missile with a diameter of 35 cm.

With a top speed of Mach 2.5, the missile can engage targets as far as 25 km away flying at heights ranging from 20 m to 18 km. Akash is powered throughout its missile and therefore has a better terminal manoeuvring capability than rocketpowered boost-coast missiles. The missile reaches velocities of 600-700 m/s above 1.5 km altitude. The all-weather missile features a digitally-coded command guidance system and has a 60 kg warhead.

The missile has an 88 per cent kill probability within a specified kill zone and is claimed to have intercepted a target with a 0.02 sq metre of radar cross-section (a fighter has a 2 sqm RCS). According to DRDO, the missile is capable of engaging cruise missiles. Akash is supported by multi-target and multi-function phased array fire control radar called ‘Rajendra’ that has a range of about 60 km.

The Akash missile system is mobile, with the missile launcher, radar and com-

www.geopolitics.in

SCOURGE OF THE SKIES: The ramjetpowered Akash surface-to-air missile has been under development for 25 years

mand centre—all mounted on the T-72 chassis. The mobile command centre selects up to four of the most threatening air targets, and two Akash missiles are fired at each of them from the T-72-based Akash launchers, which move alongside. The Rajendra radar continuously guides the missiles, eventually “flying” them smack into the enemy fighters.

Army Orders Indian Air Force placed a `1,200 crore order with Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) for two squadrons of medium-range, surface-to-air missile Akash in 2008. Defence Minister AK Antony handed over the first batch of Akash missiles to the IAF at a function in Hyderabad on March 3, 2012. The IAF plans to order six more squadrons of the missile. The purchase was cleared by the Defence Acquisition Council in February 2010. Each squadron will have two ‘flights’ equipped with four Akash launchers, and a total of 125 missiles. The total IAF order will now be for 1,000 missiles.

IAF Akash Deployment The first IAF Akash squadron, with two ‘flights’ of four launchers each, was expected to be operational at Gwalior Airbase in September 2012. One Akash squadron will be deployed at Pune, under SWAC and be operational by June 2013.

Six squadrons will be based in the NorthEast to counter the Chinese threat.

Army Orders The Indian Army has ordered two Akash regiments with six firing batteries each.

Deliveries against the order are expected to begin from March 2013.

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deagel.com

Akash surface-to-air missile Akash is a medium-range, command -guided, mobile anti-aircraft missile developed from the Russian SA-6 system.

The missile has been under development at DRDL for 25 years. The missile is in use with the IAF and the Indian Army. A naval variant of the missile is under development.

At a glance Length (m) 5.8 Diameter (m) 0.35 Weight (kg) 720 Warhead (kg) 60 Range (*km) 25 Engine Ramjet Guidance Command

LR-SAM for Indian Navy The Barak I missile that is currently deployed on IN ships has a range of 10-15 km and can successfully engage current generation of anti-ship missiles such as the Harpoon and the Exocet.

g INTERNALSECURITY

Technical Specifications The Barak-8 missile system features a vertically-launched active radar seeker missile with flexible dual pulse smokeless solid fuel motor that provides high manoeuvre capability at target interception range throughout the missile’s wide envelope.

The missile provides all-weather, day/ night engagements in complex saturation scenarios. The interceptor is vertically launched from a mobile ground launcher.

The missile’s high agility is provided by a tungsten jet vane system for thrust vector control and a highly evolved electropneumatic control actuation system. The missile is believed to have a range of 70 / 80 km and a ceiling of 16 kms. The missile launcher comprises an eight-round module, three or more of which could make up a typical system. The system is supported by the new EL/M-2258 Alpha Multi-Function Surveillance, Track & Guidance Radar (MF-STAR). The Active Electronic Steering Array (AESA) radar system uses the same S-band transmit/receive modules as the four-face, static EL/M-2248 developed for the Barak 8 system, but is a single-face radar with both mechanical and electronic scanning in azimuth.

It can deliver an accurate, high quality arena situation picture and discern low Radar Cross Section (RCS) targets even in the toughest environmental conditions (heavy jamming and dense clutter) using pulse Doppler techniques, multiple beam forming and advanced high-PRF waveforms. According to Elta, MF-STAR is able to initiate tracks against sea-skimming missiles at ranges in excess of 25 km, and out to more than 250 km for a high-flying combat aircraft. It provides mid-course guidance to the Barak-8 missile till its active homing takes over. The weapon system can engage 12 targets with 24 missiles.

www.geopolitics.in

DRDO

MR-SAM for IAF The MR-SAM is identical to LR-SAM, but uses a different ground infrastructure.

The IAF contract is for 18 fire units (each equipped with 24 missiles). A fire unit comprises a radar, three missile launchers, and a sophisticated Combat Management System. According to the contract, delivery is to be completed by October 2016.

INDIAN UCAV? A DRDO presentation slide leaked to the media indicated that the Rustom 2 could have strike capability

UAVs Searcher and Heron UAV Upgrade India plans to upgrade the sensor suite fitted on its 150 Israeli-supplied Heron 1 and Searcher 2 UAVs currently in service with the Air Force, the Army and the Navy under a $1.1 billion programme. The latest versions of Heron UAVs are equipped with a satellite link allowing them to be controlled over extended ranges and mountainous terrain. Similarly, the Searcher 3 UAV features a more powerful engine, besides improved and more compact avionics.

Upgraded IAF Searcher and Heron UAVs are expected to incorporate advanced electronic and electro-optical equipment featured on the new versions of the UAVs. Rustom - 2 ADE is developing the Rustom-2 (earlier referred to as Rustom-H) MALE UAV as a replacement for Israeli Heron UAVs currently in service. First flight of Rustom-2 is scheduled in February 2014.

It will feature Automated Take Off and Landing (ATOL) using an external pilot, and a payload of 350 kg comprising longrange electro-optics, synthetic aperture radar, maritime patrol radar, electronic and communication intelligence payload, radar warning receiver and a traffic collision avoidance system.

Attack Capability A DRDO presentation slide leaked to the Press in July 2012 indicated that the Rustom-2 will have a strike capability. It will

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loiter autonomously at high altitudes performing ISR with its SAR and EO sensors.

When a target is identified, it will either illuminate the target with a laser designator for other strike aircraft, or descend to lower altitude and attack the target with its own air-to-surface missiles.

It was earlier reported that DRDO is looking at the feasibility of integrating the Helina air-launched derivative of the Nag anti-tank missile with Rustom-2 Mini UAS for IAF & IN India has reportedly floated an RFI for 95 mini unmanned air system (UAS) for aerial surveillance, 60 for the IAF and 35 for the IN. Qualitative Requirements The qualitative requirements being sought are • Max weight of 2.5 kg • Max system (2 UAS + Ground Control Station) of 15 kg • MoD may eventually procure more than 500 additional systems.

• Tenders against the initial requirement are expected to be floated in early 2013.

• BlueBird of Israel (MicroB) and US firm AeroVironment (Puma or Raven) have responded to the RFI. • The MicroB weighs just 1 kg, is hand launched, has an endurance of 1 hr and provides stealthy video surveillance from height.

December 2012

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Current Common weapons...

Helicopters: Light Utility and Observation Helicopters MoD issued a request for proposals for 197 military Light Utility Helicopters (LUH) in July 2008, to replace the existing fleet of Chetak and Cheetah helicopters in the three Services. All of the helicopters will be bought directly from the manufacturers. Of these, 133 are for the Army and 64 for the Air Force. The Services will jointly evaluate the helicopter. Sixty of the 197 helicopters will be supplied in a flyaway condition while the remaining 137 will be assembled in India by HAL. The eventual requirement for the helicopters is projected at 384.

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INTERNALSECURITY

COVERSTORY

HEMANT RAWAT

Continued from page 39

Pechora and OSA-AK Replacement The missile will fill the gap created by the Indian government’s decision to wind up development of the Trishul point defence missile system. It will replace the Russianorigin Pechora and OSA-AK missile systems with Air Force and the Army. The Navy hopes to deploy a ship-borne tactical air defence variant of the missile

HAL Participation The additional requirement for 187 LUHs (126 for the Army and 61 for the Air Force) will be met by HAL either through licence production of the winning bidder’s model or the manufacture of an indigenously -developed helicopter. HAL will also be responsible for supporting the 197 helicopters acquired through out-right purchase.

MBDA / DRDO Work Split Maitri will build on the work done by DRDO while developing the Trishul missile, using technology transfer from MBDA to fill the technological gaps that led to the failure of the Trishul project. MBDA will provide the seeker, thrust vector control, terminal guidance system and composites for a modified propulsion system. DRDO will provide the software, command and control system and launchers. MBDA will also provide production technology to Bharat Dynamics Ltd (BDL), which will work as the system integrator and roll out the missile. The missile is planned to be produced in large numbers so BDL needs an automated assembly line, a technology it currently doesn’t have. The Electronics & Radar Development Establishment (ERDE), Bangaluru, is developing two indigenous radars for the Maitri project.

These would be new-generation variants of Central Acquisition Radar (3D-CAR), with the ability to track 150 targets simultaneously at a distance of 200 kilometres.

The Naval variant would be called the Revati and the Air Force version Rohini.

Earlier Tender An earlier tender for 197 utility helicopters in favour of Eurocopter AS550 was cancelled in December 2007 following allegations of irregularities in the procurement process.

EUROCOPTER

Procurement Progress In 2009 AgustaWestland (AW119), Eurocopter (AS-550) and Russia’s Rosoboronexport (Kamov-226) responded to the second RFP. The twin-engined Ka-226, with co-axial rotors, is an upgraded version of the Ka-26. By November 2011, only two contenders remained in the fray after trails—Russian Kamov 226T offered

by ROE and AS550C3 offered by Eurocopter. According to recent press reports, the MoD has cancelled the procurement for the second time following reports that Agusta Westland had bribed an Indian defence official to clinch the VVIP helicopter deal.

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Variants Two variants of the missile are planned • A ship-borne point and tactical air defense version for the Navy • A mobile-wheeled and tracked system for use by the Air Force and the Army.

• MBDA has also pitched the missile as a contender for the Indian Army Quick Reaction Surface-to-Air Missile (QRSAM) tender. The IAF expects to start receiving the missile by late 2013.

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ning sessions with the Services for spares needed for new weapon systems, through production and stocking, to disposal of material no longer required. Similarly, the United Kingdom created the Defence Logistics Organisation (DLO), a tri-service logistics organisation, in April 1999 to reorganise single-Service logistics support into a tri-Service logistics organisation with improved responsiveness and accountability.

It should, however, be noted that the integrated system of procurements has some challenges as well. Joint framing of Qualitative Requirements (QR) for weapons systems to facilitate common inventory can prove contentious. For example, QRs for a light helicopter are likely to differ when each Service shops for them in isolation. High-altitude performance of a helicopter may be a big issue for the Army and Air Force, perhaps not so for the Navy. The question, thus, is: Should the Navy stay loyal to the joint -Services QRs or should it go for independent procurement?

Of course, here the JSQRs can guard against unnecessary types being introduced, something that happened with the ALH Dhruv. The Dhruv should have met the requirements of all our defence forces and civil agencies, but didn’t, because the HAL dealt with the defence forces and civil agencies separately. Built against requirements projected by the IAF and the Navy, the Dhruv initially turned out to be overweight and underpowered. Rather than ingle- mindedly addressing the helicopter’s shortcomings, HAL focused on selling it to the Army and the IAF for use in roles where its low reserve of power was not a critical issue, pitching the helicopter as a fine example of indigenous technology that needed to be supported. The lack of JSQRs made it easy for HAL to do so. An engine upgrade has now improved the helicopter’s performance and the Indian Army and the IAF have committed to it, but the Navy is still not convinced.

Be that as it may, the challenging task of framing JSQRs would need to be followed by the equally challenging task of joint-evaluation. As in the framing of JSQRs, there would be need for give-andtake that does not compromise the potency of the weapon system. Each service would need to ensure that it does not overstate its requirement and be ready to accept delays that could occur from forcing a vendor to conform to JSQRs.

The writer is a former fighter pilot December 2012

geopolitics

HEMANT RAWAT

INTERNAL SECURITY

GUNNING FOR MORE

Given new challenges, the paramilitary forces need a wide range of high-technology equipment

IS b r i e f s

internal security

UFO along China border

In a startling revelation, Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde revealed that terror groups were investing in stock markets in India through bogus companies.

“It is a cliché to say that terror-funding is the main force behind terrorism. Credible intelligence indicates that terrorist outfits are investing in stock markets through spurious companies, setting up fabricated businesses and laundering capital,” Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde said, while addressing the

Interpol General Assembly.

“The utmost important task was to detect the sources of such finance, including the fake currency variant, its passages, modus operandi and stemming its flow. Here again the Interpol has to play a very essential role,” he added.

Shinde stated that India had implemented a system to counter-terrorism that gave importance to talks, democratic political processes and the rule of law. The country deals with terrorism within the ambit of this structure.

permit, participants at the conference suggested a smart card to facilitate free movement of State subjects across the LoC. Also, they demanded that the travel facility be extended to post-1990 refugees living in ‘AJK’ besides hassle-free travel

for senior citizens and provision for emergency travel.

The women decided to form a cross-LoC coalition for peace in Kashmir and act as an advocacy-cum-pressure group to make their voice heard.

Intra-Kashmir LoC meet

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In the fight against the Naxals, the police and paramilitary have a new ally in the form of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), which take pictures of Naxal-infested areas. Flying over Maoist-controlled areas, these UAVs provide surveillance images, which are supplied to the anti-Naxal forces by the premiere electronic intelligence gathering organisation in the country, the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO). Human intelligence and images garnered

by UAVs are being incorporated to get the best results.

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ISI-Maoist bhai bhai

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SINLUNG.COM

A group of women activists from Jammu & Kashmir was allowed to cross over the Line of Control into ‘Azad Jammu & Kashmir’ (AJK) for an intra-Kashmir cross-LoC dialogue in Muzaffarabad, the expectation is that such crossings will be facilitated by both countries to allow more such interactions.

At the end of the threeday meeting, the two sides sought a relaxation in the cross-LoC travel regime. In place of the current security clearance procedures involved in getting an entry

UAV patrol Naxal areas

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cryptome.org

In the last three months, there have been more than 100 sightings of “Unidentified Flying Objects” (UFOs) by Army troops deployed along the China border from Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh in the North-East region. According to the media reports, the Army, DRDO, NTRO and ITBP have not yet been able to discover these incandescent flying objects.

The 14 Corps, which looks after the boundaries with China, has sent reports to the Army Headquarters about the observances of UFOs by an ITBP unit in Thakung near the Pangong Tso Lake, according to the Army officials stationed there.

The Army moved a mobile ground-based radar unit and a spectrum analyser to authenticate the character of the object but could not become aware of the object that was being traced visually, signifying it was non-metallic.

Hemant Rawat

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AeroVironment

paranormalutopia.com

Shinde: Terrorists investing in stocks

Indian security agencies are fearing new links between Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Maoists through overground radicals and the banned Students Islamic Movement of India (SIMI) activists not just in West Bengal, but the rest of the country. The first-ever definitive revelations in this regard came from West Bengal’s Director General of Police Naparajit Mukherjee at the recentlyheld meeting of police and civilian officials from nine Maoist-infested states who met in Delhi.

December 2012

b r i e f s IS

internal security

India-UK cyber tie-up we change our decision only if facts have changed. Our travel advisories are never political .” On cyber security, both sides sought to define the core principles under which this cooperation would take place.

“Both India and the United Kingdom share the core principles of liberty, transparency, freedom of expression and the rule of law which apply in cyberspace,” said a joint statement issued at the

Quipmetre



She may not be our ally now but I must say that she had transformed the scenario in Jungle Mahal.

She had shown the political courage required for the changes in the Naxal-affected areas. The kind of political mobilisation that happened in Jungle Mahal during the last two years is worth mentioning and one should not take away the credit due to her Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh on West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Bannerjee’s handling of the Naxal crisis.

www.geopolitics.in

A vulnerable digital empire



Algerian hackers recently carried out a successful cyberattack on a government server that hosts the websites of extremely sensitive organisations, and defaced websites operated by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO), highlighting the fragility of the Indian digital system in the government domain.

The hacker group has

identified itself as ‘SanFour25’ and the defacements came to light when zone-h.org listed them on its website.

They laid siege to five other websites, all run by the National Informatics Centre, including the West Bengal police, Directorate of Estates of Ministry of Urban Development, Biotechnology Industry research Assistance Council, UT of Diu and the Rehabilitation Council of India.

Gujarat tops in Muslim cops

 gg2.net

Mukherjee reportedly told the meeting: “Though Maoists were facing all-round reverses what was emerging were signs of a growing link between them and Pakistan’s ISI, with clear evidence in this regard emerging from four districts of the state bordering Bangladesh.” “We have also witnessed the participation of members of the banned SIMI in protest marches and events organised by Maoists and their sympathisers in other parts of the country,” a government official was quoted as saying.

end of the interaction. The cyber security dialogue will seek to reduce risk of threats from cyberspace to international security and strengthen the bilateral cooperation.

fitsnews.com

India and Britain decided to step up cooperation in cyber security during their Foreign Minister-level talks. At a joint press conference with External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid, British Foreign Secretary William Hague supported India’s bid for membership in four export control regimes. He said the UK had lifted the travel ban for its citizens to Srinagar and Jammu because of “the change in the situation on [the] ground .”

The review was made after understanding the facts because “we take our travel advisory very seriously in the UK and

Gujarat, which faced one of the worst antiMuslim riots in the country barely 10 years ago, has emerged as the state with the largest number of Muslim cops posted in police stations, beating states with a higher proportion of the community in their population. The data, shared by the Home Ministry in response to an RTI query filed by The Times of India, shows that 10.6 per cent of Gujarat’s cops posted in police stations are Muslims.

This is higher than the proportion of Muslims in the state’s population, which is 9.1 per cent (2001 Census).

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Bhilai Steel Plant (BSP, will finance construction of quarters for paramilitary forces to guarantee security for the coming mining project at Raoghat in Kanker, Chhattisgarh. Due to logistical issues like lack of personnel(NSG Commandos) and costs involved for airlines in providing hotel accommodation to them, sky marshals are increasingly absent on Indian flights. From December passengers travelling on all reserved tickets for all classes in trains will be required to carry original proof of identity. Till now only those travelling on e-tickets, Tatkal tickets and in air-conditioned class had to generate identity papers during the train journeys. The Border Security Force (BSF) is planning to equip its outposts with better amenities. The border guarding force is on its way to install better border outposts (BOPs) with creature comforts that will give the soldiers some semblance of normalcy.

According to BSF officials these outposts will now have better accommodation, welfare, games and sports facilities. They have been so designed that they can hold their positions comfortably in these posts and if needed, can fight longer. bsf



Speed read

December

INTERNALSECURITY

The NH 30 connecting Maoist-infested Chhattisgarh to Andhra Pradesh is in a state of neglect, despite the importance of roads and highways in counter-insurgency operations, reports Medha Chaturvedi from Sukma

I

n an area marred by insurgency, there are often problems for the locals, beyond what meets the eye.

Something as basic as access to an area through a road can make or break the state’s response mechanism to a violent insurgency. The very foundations of any counter-insurgency measures can be shaken by the insurgents by just cutting the access routes of the security forces and isolating the locals. The critical role of roads in counter-insurgency, therefore, cannot be ignored and all means must be put in place by the security agencies to ensure that this asset does not favour the insurgents.

In Sukma district of Chhattisgarh, the problem of connectivity has always proved to be a critical factor in making it one of the most Left-Wing Extremists (LWE)-active districts in the country. The concern is further highlighted due to constant threat by the LWE to the security forces as well as the locals. The abysmal condition of National Highway 30 (NH-30) connectwww.geopolitics.in

ing Jagdalpur (district headquarters of Bastar) to Vijaywada in Andhra Pradesh via Dantewada, Sukma, Dornapal and Konta, some of the worst-affected LWE areas in the country, is only accentuated during the monsoons. The road connecting Sukma (district headquarters) to the border town of Konta is in the worst possible condition as trucks disappear into massive potholes. The acute disturbance to road transport as a consequence, raises some serious questions about the role of roads in counter-insurgency. Are roads, which are considered the lifeline of human civilisation, also a critical factor in counter-insurgency? Why is this road in a state of neglect? What needs to be done to protect roads in LWE-affected districts?

The reason Use of roads in counter-insurgency operations is nothing new. From the Romans to the Vietnamese, everybody has used roads as a means of counter-insurgency.

It is a double-edged sword and any state

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MEDHA CHATURVEDI

Road to DERELICTION employing it needs to maintain that precarious balance to ensure that while it gives access to them in their counter-insurgency efforts, it is not used by the insurgents in their endeavours. That could be highly counter-productive and could derail the entire strategy employed by the state.

Sukma district has shared borders with Andhra Pradesh, Odisha and Maharashtra and it is where the deeply-forested Dandakaranya region begins. This highway is under NHAI’s maintenance contract. However, since January 2012, when Dantewada district was bifurcated to form Sukma, there has been no maintenance work on this road. This has reduced the highway to a one-lane dirt track through the thick forest, accessible only on a motorbike or an excruciatingly long and painful bus-ride during the monsoons.

The extremists take advantage of the situation and attack and demobilise this National Highway at will. The situation worsens with every passing year without December 2012

THE QUAGMIRE: The road network across a large portion of the Naxal-hit areas has been in a state of disrepair

proper repairs and with the advent of monsoons.

After the abduction of Sukma District Collector Alex Paul Menon earlier this year, the newly formed administrative district has been “pushed back at least 20 years”, in the words of a senior official from the civil administration in the district. More than the repercussions of the incident, it is the fear which was instilled into the local contractors due to the brazenness of this kidnapping. None of the contractors are willing to take up the work of maintenance of the highway for the fear of reprisal attacks by the extremists, despite assurances from the state government and civil administration in the district of security cover to complete this task. Even labour is not available as there have been instances in the past wherein locals have been executed by the extremists following a verdict by the Jana Adalat (Naxalite kangaroo court) for “aiding” government activity in the area.

Constant attacks on the road by means www.geopolitics.in

of improvised explosive devices (IEDs) and the remoteness of the region also contribute to this crisis. In the past, there have been nearly half a dozen incidents of the Naxals setting ablaze road construction equipment, in addition to setting off IEDs on this stretch of the highway.

Sukma’s District Collector, P Dayanand, said that a newly-floated tender for the repair and maintenance of this road puts the time period for its complete repair at 30 months. However, despite the agreement for the work order being signed nearly two and a half years ago, there is little improvement in the situation. The NHAI-approved contractor entrusted with the responsibility of repair and maintenance then, was booked for fraud and the case is sub-judice in the State High Court. Dayanand also mentioned that the road was in a better running condition till 2010, but the last two monsoons made the situation much worse. He has also assured that the district administration is willing to provide com-

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plete security cover to the contractor and the workers once the work starts, which is NHAI’s responsibility to initiate. A NHAI official confirmed that the highway was under a maintenance contract. However, he mentioned that they were facing a problem in finding a contractor willing to undertake work in the area.

Roads and counter-insurgency In counter-insurgency operations, roads can serve as a tool to gain control of a territory by the force, which controls it. The state can use it to advance its initiatives and gain local support. However, if it loses control of the road, the Naxals can use it to advance their propaganda and cut the public off from state intervention; a case in point is Jagargonda village in Sukma, which was taken over by the Naxals over three years ago. The village earlier had three access routes, one via Kuakonda bloc in the present-day Dantewada district, one via Konta bloc in Sukma district and one via Bhadrachallam in Andhra December 2012

g PHOTOGRAPHS BY CRPF

INTERNALSECURITY

PERENNIAL STRUGGLE: As and when roads are repaired, the Naxals mine them to target convoys of policemen

Pradesh. Of these, only the route through Konta remains partially accessible, and that too, not to the security forces. Jagargonda is now an island completely under the control of LWE. In Sukma, the security forces lost control of NH-30 nearly three years ago and thereafter, every subsequent attack only reduces this access further. Building a national highway being a tedious process involving state action under a security cover for a prolonged period of time, works at glacial speed in an insurgency-infested area where the extremists are always in attack mode are always tough. Local support is also needed for any activity along this stretch.

This leg of the highway is a hotbed for attacks against the security forces and locals who assist in any activity initiated by the state authorities. It is the same stretch where two years ago, a CRPF patrolling party comprising 76 troops was ambushed and killed by the extremists in a village called Tadmetla. Such attacks are a common occurrence along this stretch as this is where the South Bastar District Committee of CPI (Maoist) is most active under the Dandakaranya Special Zone. Moreover, formerly the largest Salwa Judum camp in Dornapal, 30 km beyond Sukma en route Konta, has seen a number of reprisal attacks since the organisation was banned after a Supreme Court order in 2011. There have been a number of attacks on former Salwa Judum members in the www.geopolitics.in

past year. In the forests along this highway in a place called Kerlapal is where Sukma DC Alex Paul Menon was reportedly held captive. These forests provide a safe haven to the insurgents in the absence of adequate security measures.

A factor ensuring the success of roads as a counter-insurgency measure is the sustainability of security measures to guard the said road. If the state moves the security agencies away immediately after the road is constructed, it is against the Clear-Hold-Build model of counterinsurgency that the Indian state follows.

It leaves a vacuum which the Naxals take advantage of.

For any counter-insurgency effort to be successful, the state must have local support. The Indian state has been employing a variety of tools to control the situation in the Red Corridor. These involve building infrastructure, schools, strengthening the public distribution system, implementation of welfare schemes like Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Gurantee Act (MGNREGA), Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY), National Rural Health Mission (NRHM) and Indira Awaas Yojana (IAY), rural electrification, etc. to gain local support. These efforts are being supplemented by a road which connects the people to the state and also gives the state access to previously inaccessible areas. Roads in the LWE districts are being projected as a catalyst for economic development of the locals and

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greater access to security forces to ensure their safety. However, due to the state’s defensive response in dealing with the Naxals who have targeted these roads since the very beginning, places like Sukma are caught in the crossfire between security agencies and the extremists.

In addition to use of IEDs, in areas like Sukma, the insurgents utilise the topography and geography to block access to the security forces. Chhattisgarh is characterised by thick forests, rivers and heavy rains in a prolonged monsoon season.

The easiest way to block a road, therefore, is to blast a culvert.

Therefore, the government needs to find that balance to make this road lucrative to the local tribals so that they become responsible for its safety and security. For this purpose, what needs to be done is a change in perception: to see how this road seems to the people you claim to be benefitting. If the locals see it as a means by the state to gain control of their territory, the state will face opposition; if the locals see it as a means to their livelihood, they would support it. Where the state agencies enjoy such support, the road remains safeguarded and becomes the backbone of the state’s counter insurgency measures. On the other hand, if the locals see the state as the enemy, the road becomes a tool in the hands of the insurgents to carry forward their activities, as is the case in Sukma.

This situation in Sukma has reiterated the importance of roads and highways in counter-insurgency operations and has raised an important question: Are the Indian agencies failing to understand the strategic importance of roads or do they lack the means to protect these roads?

Since identifying the Naxals and differentiating them from the locals is a challenge for the security forces, building a road without local support may also increase the transit and smuggling activities by the extremists. Therefore, the need of the hour is taking the locals in confidence with their assured safety in moving forward with the maintenance of this road to gain better access to sensitive areas and allow civilian traffic a smoother interstate transit. The state needs to find that critical balance which leads it to the insurgents, not otherwise.

The author is Senior Research Officer, the Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi.

December 2012

INTERNALSECURITY

Reinventing the

The increasing demand for security forces and the impending developmental need to create employment for the local youth have nudged the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) to look at other options for the Maoist-affected states in terms of raising of Territorial Army battalions and India Reserve Battalions. At the same time, the MHA is also aiming at providing the forces a wide range of high technology equipment, writes MONISH GULATI

N

axalite violence has imposed great economic costs on the country, particularly on the Left Wing Extremism (LWE)affected states through various direct and indirect consequences— such as the destruction of infrastructure, diversion of public funds to security, restricting trade, disincentivising private investment, etc. Therefore, one of the key constructs of the government’s anti-Naxal strategy is to kickstart economic and industrial activity in the region through a revival of closed industries, bringing in fresh

www.geopolitics.in

investments and importantly, providing security to those industries struggling to survive. As a considerable number of the country’s mines fall in the LWE-affected states, the government is also faced with the responsibility of ensuring their continued functioning as it affects economic activity elsewhere in the country. The security of mines and forest-based industries, which forms a significant portion of industrial activity in these states, when viewed along with the terrain and infrastructure constraints, poses major challenges to the Central Armed Police Forces

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(CAPFs), resulting in the deployment of higher force levels.

There are six CAPFs namely the Border Security Force (BSF), Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) and National Security Guards (NSG) and one Central Paramilitary Force (CPMF) i.e. Assam Rifles (AR) under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). The NSG and AR have Indian Army personnel on deputation. By virtue of their primary tasking and deployment AR, BSF, ITBP and SSB December 2012

g INTERNALSECURITY bracing for impact: CRPF troops combing a road for concealed IEDs during a patrol in a Naxal-affected area

CRPF

CAPF are termed as ‘Border Guarding Forces’.

Since, ‘Police’ and ‘Public Order’ are State subjects; action against the Maoist in the LWE-affected states is the responsibility of the state governments. The central government monitors the situation and supplements and coordinates state efforts by augmenting force levels through the deployment of CAPFs; sanction of India Reserve Battalions (IRBs), providing helicopters for anti-Naxal operations, settingup of Counter-Insurgency and Anti- Terrorism (CIAT) schools; modernisation and upgradation of the state police and their Intelligence apparatus, re-imbursement of security-related expenditure under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) Scheme, etc. The concept is to enhance the capacity of state governments to take on the Maoists in a concerted manner. To this end 74 battalions of CAPFs are currently deployed for assisting the state police in the LWE-affected states of Andhra www.geopolitics.in

Pradesh, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal.

CRPF, the largest CAPF, has been designated as the nodal agency for antiMaoist operations in LWE states. It is the CRPF that assists the state governments in matters related to maintenance of public order and is also trained and equipped to assist them in internal security/counter-insurgency operations. The CRPF has a strength of 222 Bns, which include 191 Executive Battalions and 10 Commando Battalions for Resolute Action (CoBRA) Battalions. Of these, it is reported that 70 CRPF battalions are deployed in LWE states and a further 65 battalions in Jammu and Kashmir.

Given the Maoist strategy towards development of infrastructure in these areas, the creation, upgradation and maintenance of development-related infrastructure require security cover to proceed. The central government is planning to construct about 1200 km of roads this year in LWE districts after securing each section and putting it under security cover. The Railway Ministry too has asked for deployment of CAPFs in the RajharaRowghat area of Chhattisgarh, where 95 kms of railway lines are to be laid connecting the nearby industrial belt. In response, the MHA has deployed three battalions of BSF to provide security. The prevailing conditions in LWE-affected states, which render private security agencies ineffective for installation of security, have resulted in demands for additional security forces with improved equipment profile even for non-operational tasks.

In the time dimension, long drawn out insurgencies are known to result in upward spiraling of lethality of weapons and equipment of the opposing forces, refinement and innovation in tactics employed, specialisation of the security forces, and proliferation of violence in the society (due to availability and experience in handling of high caliber weapons combined with poor law and order situation).

As the Maoist insurgency continues to drag on, the response of the various actors in LWE-affected states of the country has been no different.

State police forces in LWE-affected states have spawned specially trained

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commando units; Greyhounds in AP, Koya in Chhattisgarh, KNF in Karnataka and the RAF and CoBRA battalions of the CRPF, to name a few. CRPF, the major component of the CAPFs engaged in anti-Naxal operations in LWE districts, besides upgrading the equipment and armament profile of its CoBRA battalions, has requested the MHA for a wide range of high technology equipment. The list includes robotic arms for bomb disposal, software-defined radios, portable exchanges, direction finders, mobile phone locator, satellite tracker for detecting movement of troops and portable V-SAT terminal for communication.

To that end, even the CISF, which provides security to 51 installations in LWE-affected states, has asked for anti-land mine and bullet-proof vehicles for all its units.

Consequently, as the influence of the LWE increases in the region, the demand for ‘state-provided’ security is also increasing, quantitatively as well as qualitatively.

Financially though, there is a silver lining. The CISF, which provides security cover to 308 units, including 58 domestic and international airports, including atomic power plants, mines, oil fields, refineries, is a cost re-imbursement force.

Therefore, the expenditure incurred on its deployment is reimbursed by the entity to which security is provided. In 200910, `3014.98 crore was reimbursed to the Central government on this account. In the wake of increasing terrorist attacks in different parts of the country an ordinance was promulgated in January 2009 to amend the CISF Act and enable CISF to provide security to the critical installations of national importance in private/ joint sector also. CISF received requests from 128 private sector installations for deployment but as on date provides security to six of these.

The Steel Authority of India, the country’s largest steelmaker, went a step ahead and offered to fund the better-equipped CRPF to protect its personnel and equipment in Chhattisgarh. The offer, the first such by a corporate entity in India, relates to the company’s operations at its Greenfield Rowghat mine, located deep inside the forests of Chhattisgarh. The company reportedly allocated `200 crore for security cover. The CISF too, in a similar vein, is looking at managements of the installations it secures to provide required gadgets and infrastructure facilities — including anti-landmine vehicles and bullet proof vehicles for its operations.

The increasing demand for CAPFs December 2012

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CRPF

INTERNALSECURITY

bolstering their strengTh: The paramilitary forces are undergoing comprehensive modernisation programmes to prepare them for future challenges

and the impending developmental need to create employment for the local youth have nudged the government to look at other options for the LWE-affected states in terms of raising of Territorial Army (TA) battalions and India Reserve Battalions (IRB). Operationally, local recruits are preferred for their local knowledge and the fact that they are not available to the Naxal/insurgent groups for recruitment.

TA battalions are raised under the Territorial Army Act of 1948. The TA is part of Regular Army and its present role is to relieve the regular Army from static duties and assist civil administration in dealing with natural calamities and maintenance of essential services. Recently, the MHA has seconded the Defence Ministry’s proposal to raise TA battalions consisting of local tribal youth in Maoist-affected areas.

The MHA has instead recommended raising, on priority, three TA battalions instead of one battalion suggested by the Defence Ministry in its initial proposal.

These TA battalions are based on the Army’s concept of ‘Home & Hearth’ TA battalions. These Home & Hearth battalions are non-departmental TA units and as on date, six Infantry Battalions (TA) (H&H) have been raised and deployed in J&K. This measure will result in employment for over 3,000 tribal youth. MHA has asked the Defence Ministry to target only key areas of worst Maoist-affected districts in www.geopolitics.in

Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Odisha for TA recruitment. With a view to strengthening the capabilities of the states, and reducing their dependence upon CAPFs to deal with various types of Law and Order and internal security situations, a scheme for raising India Reserve Battalions (IRB) in the States was introduced in the early 1970s. Under the scheme the central government sanctions the IRBs but they are raised by respective state governments.

The central government reimburses to the state 75 per cent of `17.85 crore, which is the cost of raising one IRB. In addition, it provides 50 per cent of the infrastructure cost subject to a maximum of `15 crore.

Though the objective of the IRBs is to reduce the dependency of the States on CAPFs for internal security duties, they also generate employment through local recruitment. Till date, 145 IRBs have been sanctioned to various states of which 137 have been raised including four Mahila IRBs. To date the central government has incurred an expenditure of `677 crore on IRBs. Thirty-seven IRBs were sanctioned to 9 LWE-affected states, of which 34 have been raised, including seven that have been sanctioned for Chhattisgarh and six each for Jharkhand and Odisha.

On July 13, 2011, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved the raising of 10 new Specialised India Reserve Battalions (SIRBs) in the LWE states. These SIRBs, having both security and engineering components, are being raised to execute the developmental works along with antiNaxal operations in the Naxal-affected areas.

The motivation for TA battalions and IRBs also comes from the fact that the CAPFs are facing challenges in recruiting locals from insurgency affected areas.

This is specially so in the case of CRPF, which is battling high manpower attrition rates, and as per reports managed to fill only 254 of the earmarked 2,075 for the year 2011-12 from the states of Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand, Nagaland, Mizoram and Tripura. IRBs and TA are expected to fare better as they are based in the home state, better organised administratively as compared to CRPF, which is engaged in counter-insurgency operations and frequently redeployed.

The requirement of enhanced security skills and paucity of trained manpower have pushed the corporate sector to innovate. Consequent to a government security advisory in July this year, 115 person-

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nel of Border Home Guards of Rajasthan were formally inducted at Cairn India’s oilfields in Barmer—country’s largest inland oil reserves. These specially trained commandos of Border Home Guards are called ‘Thar Falcons’. Cairn India, which owns the oilfields, footed the bill for the two-month-long training, which included anti-terrorism techniques at Rajasthan Police Training Centre, Jodhpur. Sources indicated that deployment of similar commando groups would be considered for company’s other oil reserves.

The increased deployment of CAPFs and their specialisation in response to the heightened internal security assessments have been reflected at the national level also. The Ministry of Civil Aviation is considering a proposal to create an exclusive Aviation Security Force (ASF) to take over the responsibility of airport security from the CISF. The February 2012 attack on an Israeli diplomat in the heart of the New Delhi has prompted setting-up of a diplomatic protection force, which will be responsible for securing Indian missions abroad as well as embassies and missions of foreign countries stationed at home.

The changing internal security perception in the rest of the country too has had its effect on government resources.

MHA has recently sanctioned more than 1,000 additional CISF personnel for providing security cover to various thermal power plants across the country. Even the Infosys facility in Mysore will get 54 additional CISF personnel after a security review.

When private installations in the heart of the country request for governmentprovided security, it calls for a relook at our policy framework towards private security providers. Further, in 2010-11, the central government spent 44 per cent of its total budget for CAPFs and PMF on the CRPF and CISF. For the next two-three years, the raising of 29 battalions and command elements of the CRPF has been approved.

There is also a suggestion to raise some additional Rashtriya Rifles (RR) for the LWE states. The burgeoning expenditure on the internal security structure demands a more comprehensive, innovative and cost-effective approach from the government than that on simply having more boots on ground.

(The author is a Delhi-based security analyst) December 2012

geopolitics

DIPLOMACY

THE MEN WHO RULE CHINA

english.people.com.cn

The newly-appointed members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the Chinese Communist Party headed by Xi Jinping, are in charge of the world’s next ‘superpower’ for next ten years.

O N LO O K E R

whitehouse

Egyptian President and Obama Forge Link in Gaza Deal

The best description was in The New York Times. It reported: “President Obama skipped dessert at a long summit meeting dinner in Cambodia on Monday to rush back to his hotel suite.

It was after 11:30 p.m., and his mind was on rockets in Gaza rather than Asian diplomacy. He picked up the telephone to call the Egyptian leader who is the new wild card in his Middle East calculations. Over the course of the next 25 minutes, he and President Mohamed Morsi of Egypt hashed through ways to end the latest eruption of violence, a conversation that would lead Mr Obama to send Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton to the region. As he and Mr Morsi talked, Mr Obama felt they were making a connection.

Three hours later, at 2:30 in the morning, they talked again.”

Apparently, the two Presidents spoke to each www.geopolitics.in

other thrice within 24 hours and half-a-dozen times during the next few days. The ice finally broke between the two leaders and apparently Obama felt less of ideology and more of an ‘engineers precision’ in the manner in which Morsi approached the Hamas-Israel standoff. He felt the heavyweight from the Muslim Brotherhood was straightforward and willing to walk the talk.

Essam el-Haddad, the foreign policy adviser to the Egyptian President, summed it up well. “Yes, they were carrying the point of view of the Israeli side but they were understanding also the other side, the Palestinian side,” Mr. Haddad said in Cairo as the ceasefire was being finalised. “We felt there was a high level of sincerity in trying to find a solution. The sincerity and understanding was very helpful.”

The point is, will the partnership hold, or is it a mere firefighting?

World Economic Forum/ flickr

UK PmO photostream

Was it polonium?

Scientists and legal experts from Switzerland, France and Russia have collected samples from the body of the late Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat. The team opened Arafat’s grave recently in order to test his body for radioactive substances.

This follows a nine-month investigation by Al Jazeera found elevated levels of the substance in Arafat’s final personal effects. The findings, which were broadcast in July, suggest that there was also a high level of polonium in Arafat’s body when he died, raising fresh questions about what killed the longtime Palestinian leader. The cause of Arafat’s death has long remained a mystery. Some reports speculated that he died from AIDS, cirrhosis of the liver, or other diseases, but medical experts who studied his final medical records told Al Jazeera that he was in good health until he suddenly fell ill in October of 2004. Al Jazeera’s investigation studied the items Arafat had with him when he died: his comb, his toothbrush, even his iconic kaffiyeh, all of which were variously stained with his blood, sweat, saliva and urine. The items were provided by Arafat’s widow, Suha. His belongings were analysed by the Institut de Radiophysique in Lausanne, Switzerland, which discovered high levels of polonium-210. Further tests found that most of the polonium was “unsupported,” which means that it did not come from natural sources. Investigators from each of the three countries will remove samples, which they will analyse independently.

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December 2012

O N LO O K E R Historic trip “I don’t think anybody is under the illusion that Burma’s arrived, that they’re where they need to be. On the other hand, if we waited to engage until they had achieved a perfect democracy my suspicion is we’d be waiting an awful long time,” as he jetted into Myanmar for a historic first visit by a US President those were the words of Barack Obama fresh from his electoral triumph.

In return President Thein Sein said: “In this regard, I would like to… we will redouble our efforts that the discussion …the discussions

that we had will bring benefit for the people of Myanmar and bring prosperity to our country. And in this regard, we will continue to work with — as partner with the United States.”

But as always it was Obama and Hillary Clinton’s visit to the lakeside villa of Aung Sang Su Ki — it was a visit in many ways that defined the trip, as she embraced Hillary and got a peck on her cheek from Obama. It was evident that Myanmar, despite the sceptism, was slowly emerging out of the shadows.

QUOTEMETER “I want to study, to write, to live and have a good time.”

— Ehud Barak, Israel’s Defence Minister, on why he is leaving politics and will not run in January

un

us air force

Susan’s the problem The problem with Susan Rice is not that she misled the American political establishment on the attack in Benghazi which saw their Ambassador being killed. After all she was only reciting what the CIA had told her. The problem with Dr Rice is her temper. She can cut you like a hot knife; she can be chilling, feisty and what have you. It all depends on the time of the day and the place.

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In the 2008 elections she turned the knife on Republican contender John McCain and he has now returned the favour four years later. He told Fox News: “I will do everything in my power to block her from being the United States Secretary of State.” Then started a war on the airwaves. The Democrats yelled back: “To batter this woman because they don’t feel they have the ability to batter President Obama is something we the women are not going to stand by and watch. Their feckless and reckless speculation is unworthy of their offices as senators.”

President Obama at his first news conference said: “Let me say specifically about Susan Rice: She has done exemplary work.

She has represented the United States and our interests in the United Nations with skill and professionalism and toughness and grace.” A week later McCain said: “I think she deserves the ability and the opportunity to explain herself and her position.

But she’s not the problem. The problem is the President of the United States.” The last word was for Rice: “I have great respect for Senator McCain and his service to our country. I always have, and I always will. I do think that some of the statements he’s made about me have been unfounded, but I look forward to having the opportunity at the appropriate time to discuss all of this with him.” And here’s a lovely tailpiece on Rice’s travel travails from Foreign Affairs: “In an October 2010 trip to Sudan, Rice led the council and the press corps on visits to hospitals, a police training station, and even a fistula treatment center.”

Following that visit, Russia’s UN ambassador, Vitaly Churkin, reportedly complained that Rice “drags us on all these ridiculous adventures, including this “gynecological clinic that has nothing to do with the United Nations,” according to a fellow traveller.

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December 2012

BANKING ON INDIA: US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta, center, inspects Indian troops during a welcoming ceremony at the Ministry of Defense

Babus’ obstacle to Indo-US Defence ties, says US report A recent report by respected American think-tank Centre for Strategic and International Studies spells out the challenges facing Indo-US defence ties. Geopolitics analyses this document

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n January 2012, the US Defense Department released its latest strategic guidance, in which it elaborated on its concept of “rebalancing” toward the Asia-Pacific region. Japan, South Korea, and Australia — the traditional American partners in India — were grouped together under the tag of “existing alliances,” and this is what the document had to say about India. “The United States is also investing in a long-term strategic partnership with India to support its ability to serve as a regional economic anchor and provider of security in the broader Indian Ocean region.” But now it seems that the growing Indo-US bonhomie might be upset by Indian bureaucracy, or at least that is what a report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies says. The report, by author Dr S Amer Latif, a visiting fellow at the Center www.geopolitics.in

for Strategic and International Studies, has blamed the Indian bureaucracy on the slow pace of US-India defence ties.

Latif previously served as the director for South Asian affairs in the Office of the Secretary of Defense from 2007 to 2011.

In the report, he examines the various service-level interactions between the respective navies, air forces, and armies, and identifies areas where the two sides might pursue cooperation in the future.

He also examines the various challenges to deeper military engagement and suggests ways in which the two sides might work to enhance mutual understanding between their respective defence bureaucracies. The foreword is written by Karl F Inderfurth who was the American Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs from August 1997 to January 2001.

Under the section of ‘Bureaucratic

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Challenges’ Latif says that “both sides need to work through a range of bureaucratic challenges to unlock the full potential of their military-to-military relationship. On the Indian side, the Indian civilian bureaucracy has been the main obstacle to deeper military engagement despite the Indian military’s desire for greater bilateral cooperation”.

He further goes on to say that “concerns about jeopardizing strategic autonomy, along with personnel and budgetary limitations, have led to a further stymieing of deeper military contact. The lack of a rich policy discussion is hindered by a dearth of individuals within the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD) who are capable of conducting policy and strategy discussions with US counterparts. Indian concerns about the US bureaucracy have centered on a perception that India’s December 2012

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access to US high technology continues to be neglected”.

Latif also outlines the strategic challenges faced saying that “the United States and India need a clearly defined strategic vision to focus their military engagement.

Both sides also need a better understanding of concepts such as: Interoperability, which has negative connotations for the Indian side because of perceptions that such concepts connote an alliance-like relationship…the United States needs to maintain reasonable expectations of India as a potential security partner over the near term to midterm, given its reluctance to partner too closely with the United States, which is rooted in a combination of its foreign policy orientation and capacity limitations”.

The report even talks of the India’s concerns about American ties to Pakistan: “Policy and political challenges encom-

Indian perception of US unreliability, there is a lingering trust deficit that the United States still must work to overcome.”

The report also has this to say about India’s future ambitions: “The reality is that India is not likely to emerge as a key provider of security within the Indo-Pacific region any time in the near term to midterm. Rather, India, as a strategically developing country, has yet to develop a comprehensive and long-term concept of how and when to employ its military beyond its immediate neighborhood or on missions other than peacekeeping…

Given that India is still trying to develop its military capabilities and has yet to promulgate a public national security strategy, it is difficult to ascertain with any degree of predictability when India might deploy its military force in the future.”

The report points out the challenges faced by the Indian military establish-

pass a wide array of obstacles that affect defense engagement but may be difficult for US or Indian policymakers to influence. The United States’ relationship with Pakistan continues to give India pause due to US arms sales and India’s perception that the United States does not sufficiently appreciate the depth of its concerns about Pakistan.”

On the other political and policy challenges, the report says: “India’s domestic politics can pose a difficult challenge for deepening US-India ties with leftist elements skeptical of the United States. It is also unknown whether the growing influence of state-based parties on national policy will have any implications for defense engagement. Finally, based on a past history of sanctions and an

ment stating: “In addition to a limited bureaucracy, the Indian military is facing capacity challenges through a combination of arms modernization, serious personnel and discipline matters, and complex national security challenges that will tax the capacity of the Indian armed forces to engage the United States.”

Among the internal challenges faced

by India the paper say that “India’s domestic security challenges in Jammu and Kashmir, the northeastern states, and the Naxalites throughout the eastern and central states can also limit India’s ability to externally engage with security partners.”

The report also mentions the US’s expectation of tangible action from the Indian side. “Given that India is still trying to develop its military capabilities and has

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yet to promulgate a public national security strategy, it is difficult to ascertain with any degree of predictability when India might deploy its military force in the future.” Among its recommendations are to “maintain modest expectations and understand that India will not be a key provider of security in the IOR for the short term to midterm”.

The paper also talks of the hopes that the other nations in the Asian region have from India and about how the Indian government has yet not acted on any of these: “Aside from Washington, the rest of Asia is also waiting for India to wade into the complex security scenarios that confront the Asia-Pacific region. Asian capitals have also taken note of India’s prominent mention in Washington’s 2012 strategic defense guidance document and wonder about the role India will play in providing security and stability. Many Asian countries feel there has been episodic engagement and little demonstration of New Delhi’s intent to exercise more decisive leadership in the region. Such reticence has been seen in the South China Sea. While India has clarified its position on its desire for freedom of navigation through the region, it has eschewed any active deployments to the area.”

Among the recommendations provided by the report are: “Exploring the idea of complementary posture by examining how the US and Indian militaries can use each other’s berthing and intelligence facilities throughout the Indian Ocean Region.”

The paper’s other recommendations include: “Reciprocal use of the Andaman and Nicobar Islands as well as Diego Garcia could be possibilities. Conduct(ing) joint maritime security patrols with India in the South Asia maritime region, which includes Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Bangladesh, among other states. Also work with India to establish a corollary to the highly successful Pacific Partnership program in the Indian Ocean. Both countries’ air forces should examine possibilities for closer cooperation on Space Situational Awareness, which is increasingly important due to the large amount of space debris that could threaten US and Indian space-based assets. Commence a discussion about missile defense policy. More specifically, both sides should have a policy discussion aimed at exchanging perspectives on the effective deployment and operation of missile defense systems.”

December 2012

TWO LEADERSHIPS IN TRANSITION How will a re-elected Obama as America’s President and newly-appointed Xi as China’s supreme leader deal with India? Ajay Singh tries to find out

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his November, the United States of America, a superpower in relative decline, and China, a rising power with superpower ambitions, underwent a transition in leadership. Democratic USA, of course, re-elected its leader through a nationwide electoral process; Communist China went through its secretive, one-party conclave to appoint a new generation of leaders.

At the end of these two diametrically-opposed processes, President Barack Obama stood re-elected on his mandate of hope, and Xi Jinping took over as the head of the Communist Party of China. Between the two of them they control over a fifth of the world’s land mass and preside over onefourth of humanity. The actions they take in the coming years of their tenure will impact not only their own nations but will

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have a profound effect on the entire world.

At noon on November 15, 2012, Xi Jinping strode into the red-carpeted Great Hall of the People in Beijing after being anointed as successor to Hu Jintao. With him stood the seven newly-appointed members of the Politburo Standing Committee in their dark suits and red ties, comprising Li Keqiang, the new premier and six other party officials.

This once-in-a-decade change of guard, orchestrated by the Communist Party’s Central Committee, marked the fifth generation of the party in power.

There were no public discussions, no open debates and no exercise of franchise or democratic processes. It was just a behind-closed-doors process and a de facto announcement that heralded the newlyappointed leaders of 1.3 billion people.

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Across the Pacific, the transition was quite different. Barack Obama was elected President after winning 326 Electoral College votes in a nationwide process where virtually each individual’s vote counted.

It was the culmination of six months of intense campaigning, public debate, political thrust and parry, which ended with Obama being reinstated for four more years as the most powerful man in the world. The contrasting processes and the ideology they represent mark the major point of difference between the two nations.

Both leaders have their task cut out for them. Obama presides over a superpower that is losing its sheen. Reviving his nation’s economy and curbing rampant unemployment will be on top of his agenda. He also faces the daunting task of withdrawing a war-weary nation from the quagmire of Afghanistan, at the same time ensuring that Afghanistan itself does not collapse after the withdrawal. Then, there is a rising and belligerent China to contend with. Other troubled areas of the world, the Middle East, Yemen, Somalia, Sudan also demand US attention, if not December 2012

Christopher Dilts for Obama for America

key tenures: Key developments in the next few years will be decided by the terms of leaders like China’s Xi Jinping (facing page) and American President Barrack Obama

active intervention. And then, there are issues such as terrorism, nuclear proliferation, global warming and climate change to be addressed. Xi Jinping too has a difficult job ahead of him. After a decade of break-neck economic growth, the Chinese economy is slowing down. There is also the image of China and its great power aspirations that have to be realised. Yet, the very assertions that mark its rise as a regional and world power have alarmed its neighbours —Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines and Australia—and has attracted the US ‘Pivot towards Asia’.

There are calls for greater openness and freedom from the tight hold of one-party rule. Rising corruption threatens to slow growth and bring down both the party and the state (it felled Bo Xilai, one of the contenders for his post). Other issues such as energy security, border disputes and rumblings in Tibet and Xinjiang province also demand attention.

In the overall US strategy, India is a key figure. Yet, with the return of Obama, perhaps, there will be greater continuity and renewed impetus in Indo-US ties.

The seeds of the Indo-US partnership had

been planted by President Bush with the nuclear deal. Obama not only followed it through but pursued other active measures to endorse India’s position as a rising power, such as supporting its candidature to the United Nations Security Council and pushing India’s case in the Nuclear Suppliers Group. As India becomes more central to US strategic interests, he may pursue Indo-US ties even more actively during his second tenure. Perhaps, a stronger economic and strategic partnership could be on the cards when he visits India in 2013, the only President to have visited India twice.

The US ‘Pivot toward Asia’ is another Obama initiative which will be strengthened in his second tenure. With the US preoccupation with Afghanistan and Iraq, the Asia-Pacific had been neglected. With the war in Afghanistan winding down, the US will move towards the Asia-Pacific as part of the rebalancing process—a strategic initiative which Obama announced at the Asia Summit held in Bali last year. For the first time, the US expressed support to Vietnam, Japan, Thailand, the Philippines and other nations in their maritime dis-

putes with China. The clutch of strategic alliances with Japan, Australia, the Philippines, Malaysia and Singapore , the establishment of new bases in Australia, and the shifting of naval assets from the Atlantic towards the Pacific, are all part of the US tilt towards Asia that Obama has initiated.

His first overseas visit—that too within 14 days of his second term—was to Myanmar, the Philippines and Malaysia, which is indicative of the emphasis he places on the region.

The US engagement fits in very well with India’s ‘Look East’ policy. But there is urging to do more in our role in East Asia.

India has been traditionally seen as being long on rhetoric and short on performance and as Hilary Clinton hinted, “It is time for India to not only Look East, but Think East and Act East.” Yet in spite of US overtures, India will not like to be seen as entering any alliance or partnership that is directed against China. It will balance its relationship with these two powers and choose its own path in between.

Obama had undergone a similar 180degree shift in perception in his Af-Pak policy. When Obama shifted US focus away from Iraq and back towards ‘The Right War’ in Afghanistan during the initial days of his first tenure, the US policy was blatantly pro-Pakistan. Pakistan was the ally to be mollycoddled and its strategic interests in Afghanistan kept in mind.

India’s strategic interests and its economic engagements there were secondary. Yet, Obama soon realised that the roots to the Afghanistan problem lay within Pakistan.

His hardening stance saw the intensification of drone attacks inside Pakistan with the spectacular raid to eliminate Osama Bin Laden being one of the major successes of his presidency. He had engineered a withdrawal from Iraq in his first tenure.

His preoccupation now will be to engineer a safe, dignified exit from Afghanistan in 2014. With US-Pakistan relations having gone downhill, Pakistan is no longer central to the plan. It is India that is banked upon to bring some measure of stability in the post-withdrawal phase and help facilitate the US exit strategy. India can use this to consolidate its presence there—though only through economic and not military engagement—and safeguard its interests in this strategically vital region.

In the Middle East, another troubled spot of the world, Obama will once again be tested. He has gained time to enable sanctions to work against Iran and may be able to stave off a pre-emptive Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Yet whether he succeeds in curbing Iran’s nuclear programme is still a little ‘iffy’ now. The Middle East is a changed proposition now, in the aftermath of the Arab Spring and IsContinued on Page 64

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December 2012

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CHINA’S SUPER LEADERS On the morning of November 15, seven Chinese leaders led by Xi Jinping strode on to the red-carpeted podium in the Great Hall of the People. These members of the newly elected members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo (PBSC) of the 18th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Central Committee.

The PBSC was reduced from 9-members to 7-members. This will make the decision making process easier.

The new PBSC line up is as follows: Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli. Most of these leaders headed by Xi Jinping, and second in hierarchy and putative Premier Li Keqiang will lead the country for the next ten years.

Significantly, among this group are children of former revolutionary leaders who greatly suffered under Mao Zedong’s ultra leftist Cultural Revolution (1966-76).

A development to be taken note of is that outgoing Party Chief Hu Jintao’s predecessor, Jiang Zemin succeeded in pushing himself at the center-stage of the Congress, physically sitting on the podium at the age of 86, though he needed help to get up and walk. This could only happen only because Jiang’s policy of development and opening the party membership to successful business community in the interest of development had a forceful

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support in the Central Committee.

It is said that Jiang Zemin won and the Hu Jintao was washed away in power sharing. This argument is further backed by the fact that Hu Jintao did not stay on for some more time as the Chairman of the critical Central Military Commission (CMC) as Jiang Zemin had done.

It is a fact that Hu Jintao could not promote his Communist Youth League (CYL) protégée, Li Keqiang, as the next Party Chief. Xi Jinping won over with support from Jiang Zemin. Xi had worked with Defence Minister Geng Biao, a powerful top leader who also excelled in diplomacy.

Under Gen. Geng’s tutelage, Xi was able to work in the countryside along with the PLA during exercises, thereby getting a rare army-peasant co-operation experience.

Xi’s political career is marked by “cooperation” and “patience”. As a school student during the Cultural Revolution he had to criticise his own father Xi Zhongshun, a revolutionary leader and among the scores targeted by Mao, his Security Chief Kang Sheng’s wife Cao Yiopu’s Red Guards group. Xi Jinping, therefore, had built up a wide contact base from his youth, unwittingly and then deliberately after he joined politics. However, one cannot discount Li Keqiang either. A farm labourer’s son, he worked himself up through school

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the first rung: Chinese leaders Zhang Gaoli, Liu Yunshan, Zhang Dejiang, Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Yu Zhengsheng and Wang Qishan at the Great Hall of the People on November 15, 2012 in Beijing

and university by his shoe strings, worked in difficult places, and subscribes to the policy of developing poor regions. In the PBSC-7, it can be said Hu Jintao has two protégées, Li Keqiang and Liu Yunshan, both CYL products.

Jiang Zemin has two firm supporters, Yu Zhengsheng, Shanghai Party Chief and a princeling, and Zhang Gaoli Party Chief of Tianjin Municipality, nurtured by Jiang.

Of the other three, it cannot be said they are blind supporters of Jiang Zemin.

Xi Jinping, as established, has his own mind and counsel, and will gradually carve out at least a first among equals position for himself.

Zheng Dejiang, a princeling who can take hard decision to control issues, is not known to be a liberal reformer. He reportedly opposed Jiang’s policy of inducting businessmen in the Party. Wang Qishan is another princeling, known for his economic acumen, and appreciated in the US for his sharp mind and sense of satiric humour. He has also been made head of the Party’s anti-corruption unit the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDIC). It is evident that a new class in Chinese leadership may be emerging. In the PBSC line up, at least four of the seven are princelings.

-Bhaskar Roy

December 2012

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Continued from Page 61

rael—a traditional US ally—will be under increased pressure to vacate its occupied territories and provide a homeland for the Palestinians. Obama had neglected the Middle East during his first tenure.

Perhaps he could play a larger role in his second.

On the other side, Xi Jinping grapples with similar problems. He is more suave and urbanised than his staid predecessors and seems to have a wider global outlook.

His marriage to Peng Liyuan, a popular rock star, has raised odious comparisons with Carla Bruni-Sarkozy relationship but is unlikely to impinge on his political leanings. Irrespective of his modernistic outlook there would be little policy changes in his tenure. The all-powerful Communist Party of China believes in continuity and a consensus-based approach to decision making and its time-tested policies of the past decades are likely to continue.

The greatest challenge that the Xi Li leadership faces is how to manage China’s rise into the position of the world’s largest economy and global superpower. Under his predecessor, Hu Jintao, the economy catapulted from the world’s sixth largest to the second largest. Manoeuvring it one notch higher will be far more difficult.

The Chinese economy is faltering and Hu Jintao himself admitted in his farewell address that the growth is “unbalanced, uncoordinated and unsustainable”. He must shift it from the present export-led and investment dependent model to an internal consumption-based model if the www.geopolitics.in

growth is to be maintained. That will call for pressing reforms which would open up the economy further, even if it means relinquishing party control in key sectors.

Xi also has the delicate task of managing rise of China as a military and a world power. Its rise has been carefully engineered by the past three generations of leaders. As per carefully planned time lines it should have completed its military modernisation by around 2015-2020 or so. As China attains its military potential, will its rising sense of nationalism propel it to take what they perceive as their rightful place on the world stage. Already it is involved in a series of territorial disputes with eleven of its neighbors. Already it is flexing its muscles as it talks of regaining the territories they claim as their own. Already it is in the process of extending its imprint in areas as widespread as the Pacific and Indian Oceans, Africa and Antarctica. Xi himself has been appointed as the head of the Central Military Commission which gives him direct control over the armed forces. He is, known to have advocated a hard-line in pursuing China’s nationalistic ambitions. His time coincides with the period when China’s military preparation would be complete.

It also matches the growing, and in Chinese eyes, unwarranted US presence in the region. Will there be greater muscle flexing and use of military might to resolve China’s many disputes during his tenure?

All the indicators seem to say so.

The present Chinese leadership is a

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chinese ruling elite: Discontent amidst the economic downturn means that the Chinese leadership may have to loosen their grip on power

little ambivalent to India, with none of the standing guard having visited India in the recent past. Xi’s last visit to India was two decades ago, though he visited 50 nations during his tenure as vice-premier. Yet, the present India-China stance of ‘Cooperation, not Competition’ is likely to continue.

In present Chinese perception there seems to be little military animosity towards India, notwithstanding the unresolved border issue. The 50th Anniversary of the 1962 War, in spite of the sentiment it generated in India, went off largely unnoticed and uncommented by the Chinese media.

Economically China has displaced the US as India’s largest trading partner.

Both Xi Jinping and Li Kequing have emphasised greater economic cooperation and their investment friendly approach could present potent business opportunities. The whopping $73 billion trade is projected to rise to $200 billion during his tenure and is crucial to both economies, even though it is skewed heavily in China’s favour. Economic considerations will far outweigh other differences and that factor itself will keep India-China relations on a more-or-less even keel. That factor will also decide the strategic approach we follow with both the USA and China.

The author is a strategic analyst December 2012

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NOVEL PARTNERSHIP: A Parliamentary delegation from Saudi Arabia led by the Speaker of Majlis Ash Shura (Consultative Council), Dr. Abdullah Bin Mohammed Bin Ibrahim Al Al-Sheikh calling on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in New Delhi on May 8, 2012.

Also seen is Indian National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon

Falling in Line

PIB

Recent deportation of Pakistani-trained Indian terrorists from Saudi Arabia gives grounds for some optimism that Islamist extremists using Saudi soil to mount their campaigns in India are no longer secure, writes N Manoharan

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o country can counter the menace of terrorism singlehandedly, however powerful it may be. Enhanced diplomacy and international cooperation is one of the best “insurance policies” countries can have against terrorism, both in the short and long run.

India has of late been realising the fruits of its tireless diplomatic efforts with Saudi Arabia, which is considered to be one of the hubs of jihadists, by series of deportations of Indian terrorists holed up in that country. On October 22, 2012, Fasih Mohammed, a suspected Indian Mujahideen (IM) operator alleged to have been in-

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volved in terror attacks in Bengaluru and Delhi, became the third Indian terrorist to be deported from Saudi Arabia. A Rayees, an accused in a case relating to seizure of ammonium nitrate from Chakkarakkal in Kannur in 2009, was deported on October 6, 2012. In June this year, Abu Jundal alias Sayed Zabiuddin Ansari, a Lashkare-Toiba (LeT) handler, involved in several terror attacks in various parts of India, was similarly deported despite Pakistan’s resistance.

How significant?

Abu Jundal was involved in or connected with a number of terror attacks across In-

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dia. Apart from the famous Aurangabad arms haul case (May 2006), his involvement has surfaced in the IISc attack in Bengaluru (December 2005), 26/11 Mumbai attacks (November 2008), German Bakery blast in Pune (February 2010), Chinnaswamy Stadium attack in Bengaluru (April 2010) and Jama Masjid attack in Delhi (September 2010). He was the only Indian present at the “control room” in Karachi that guided the entire course of 26/11 Mumbai attack; he not only knew who else were present, but also their exact role and motivations. Ajmal Kasab, lone terrorist caught alive among the 10 terrorists who carried out Mumbai attacks, December 2012

DIPLOMACY HOME-GROWN TERRORIST: Abu Jundal has had a hand in a number of terror attacks across the country

Abu Jundal’s web of terror Abu Jundal was involved in or connected with a number of terror attacks across India.

• • • • • •

Aurangabad arms haul case (May 2006) Bengaluru IISc attack (December 2005) 26/11 Mumbai attacks (November 2008) Pune German Bakery blast (February 2010) Bengaluru Chinnaswamy Stadium attack (April 2010) Delhi Jama Masjid attack in (September 2010)

was just an operative. But, Ansari had been involved right from the planning of the attacks to its execution and also its post-mortem. His first-hand testimony is important for India to connect various unconnected dots in the case. Thus far, testimonies of Kasab and David Headley are available to India; only Ansari should be in a position to confirm whether they spoke the truth or not. Zabiuddin Ansari should also be able to explain the extent of Pakistan’s—its intelligence agencies to be more precise —involvement in various terror attacks against India. As Pakistan claims, is it really not in a position to control anti-Indian militant groups based in its soil? Or, is it controlling everything, from planning to execution of terror attacks against India? Whether Jundal fled to Saudi Arabia with the help of the Pakistani establishment or with the help of LeT or both. How did he manage www.geopolitics.in

H C TIWARI

to survive in Saudi Arabia for nearly two years with a “fake passport”?

Ansari is also expected to know a lot about the Pakistan-based LeT: its leadership, motivation, funding, recruitment, training, bases (both political and military), logistical support, its linkage with state and non-state actors of Pakistan, other internal and external networks, its modules and ‘sleeper cells’ in India, selection of targets, plans for future attacks and its extent of connections with Indian jihadist groups like SIMI and IM. He has already revealed substantial amount of information that has in fact helped the police crack certain IM modules before they got into act. In the case of Jundal, Saudi Arabia was reluctant to deport him because of Pakistan, its staunch ally. Islamabad knew Jundal’s value to Indian authorities and the damage it could cause to Pakistan’s image if he confessed whatever he knew. Although pressure from the US worked, there has been realisation on the part of the Saudis on the need to cooperate with India on counter-terrorism. They finally came around to hand Ansari over when they were convinced by the DNA profile of Jundal and other proofs submitted by India unambiguously establishing his Indian nationality. On the other hand, Pakistan had no credible proof to show to

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the Saudis to ascertain that he was a Pakistani citizen.

Considered to be “a very important catch”, Fasih Mohammed is expected to know a lot about the IM: its leadership, motivation, funding, recruitment, training, bases (both political and military), logistical support, its linkage with state and non-state actors of Pakistan, other internal and external networks, its modules and ‘sleeper cells’ in India and abroad, presence in countries like Saudi Arabia, selection of targets, and plans for future attacks. Fasih’s arrest indeed was a big blow to the IM, the module of which was recently busted. But, unlike in Abu Jundal’s case, the delay in the deportation of Fasih Mohammed and Rayees was more of procedural in nature: in terms of crimes committed by the accused and their citizenship. A Rayees would throw more light on LeT connections to southern India, especially terror modules based in Kerala, radicalisation of Muslim youth of the state and the availability of bombmaking materials like ammonium nitrate to the terrorists.

Overall, all the three cases would help the Indian government understand the various causes for radicalisation of Indian Muslim youth, those groups involved in radicalising them, their international network, on how the youth graduate to indulge in terror attacks against their own people and, in the process, how they get their lives and ambitions trapped and finally destroyed. The crucial point is to get to know of the intent and extent of Pakistan’s involvement. For instance, just to take the case of Abu Jundal: had been holed up in Saudi Arabia since 2010 after leaving Pakistan with the help of his Pakistani handlers. To the embarrassment of Pakistan’s government, Ansari’s Pakistani passport indicates that it was issued in January 2009 from Karachi in the name of Riyasat Ali, a resident of Muridke, Pakistan. Ansari also holds two Pakistani identity cards that enable him to enter Pakistan without a visa.

The Beginning and the Way Ahead Post-9/11 Saudi Arabia realised the inDecember 2012

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combating organised crime, illicit trafficking of narcotics, weapons, and historical artifacts, and counterfeiting of currency and travel documents, in practice there were hitches.

The obstacles came in the form of perception of what constituted “crime” and priorities in addressing them. Yet, when the overall bilateral relations improved to the level of ‘strategic partnership’ in 2010, and when Saudi Arabia found that the importance of India as a major power had been gaining resonance, there had been meeting grounds. This was reflected in the signing of an Extradition Treaty between the two countries in the same year.

Defence Minister A K Antony’s visit to the Kingdom in February 2012, the first by a Defence Minister of India, boosted security ties between the two countries tremendously, including in counter-terrorism.

Counter-terrorism cooperation between India and Saudi Arabia does not stop with the deportation of Abu Jundal and Fasih Mohammed. The two countries, as Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has pointed out, are “strong allies against the scourge of extremism and terrorism that affects global peace and security”. It is important that the cooperation between the two countries goes further in identifying the network of those already radicalised and in safeguarding Indians (about two million) based in the Kingdom from any radicalising attempts by jihadi groups.

Further, Saudi Arabia should arrest and deport all Indian fugitives hiding in that country such as C A M Basheer and Dr Usman Ghani Khan of SIMI, Fayyaz Kagzi and Abu Haroon of LeT, and Kochu Peedikayil Sabir, Mohammed Abdul Majeed and Mohammed Shaheed Faisal of Indian Mujahideen. The list of ‘unknowns’ could be more.

In future, Riyadh should, at the outset, discourage such elements from entering the Kingdom and indulge in ra d i c a l i s a t i o n and recruitment.

Much attention is also required in blockba

tensity of the problem. The fact that 15 of the 19 suicide hijackers who killed nearly 3,000 people on September 11, 2001, were Saudis was a deep embarrassment to Riyadh. In the recent years, Saudi Arabia has been increasingly feeling concerned over collaboration between Al Qaeda in Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Lashkar-eToiba (LeT) and its possible implications in the long run. US’ determination of LeT as one of the most dangerous terror outfits, first by listing it as a ‘Foreign Terrorist Organization’ and later by announcing $10 million on the LeT chief Hafiz Saeed, sent strong signals to Saudi authorities: that they should not let Al Qaeda enter the Kingdom through LeT. Also IM’s ideological inspiration from Al Qaeda and the former’s intense network with LeT did not go unnoticed by Riyadh. The assassination attempt on the then assistant interior minister, Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, by an Al Qaeda suicide bomber acted as a reminder.

The counter-terrorism cooperation between India and Saudi Arabia has also to be looked at from the point of improving bilateral ties. The relations have been on the upward trend ever since January 2006 when King Abdullah visited India (a visit by a Saudi head of the state after 50 years) as a chief guest of India’s Republic Day celebrations. The ‘Delhi Declaration’ that was signed during the visit termed that the “visit heralds a new era in India-Saudi Arabia relations and constitutes a landmark in the development of increased understanding and cooperation between the two countries and creation of a mutually beneficial partnership”. Apart from other areas such as economy, trade, science and technology, health and culture, the two countries recognised the “need to intensify and coordinate bilateral, regional and global cooperation to combat and eradicate the menace of terrorism”.

However, there was no concrete agreement on counter-terrorism cooperation except for signing an ‘MoU on Combating Crime’. Although the MoU provided for cooperation between the security agencies of the two countries for

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ing funds to Indian terror groups from non-state actors based in Saudi Arabia.

The two countries stand to gain not only on economic complementarities, but also on security and defence complementarities. A Joint Committee on Security similar to the one on Defence should be set up to make the security cooperation comprehensive: intelligence sharing, monitoring and surveillance, joint exercises, high-level visits, exchange programmes, and so on. Using the present momentum, India should make best use of its diplomatic energies to prevail on violent nonstate actors based in Pakistan, like the LeT, through Saudi Arabia. Riyadh’s help is vital for New Delhi to counter jihadist terrorism in the country, which King Abdullah called his “second home”.

This does not mean that Saudi Arabia has ended its linkages with state and nonstate actors of Pakistan. Despite the bonhomie between New Delhi and Riyadh, Saudi Arabia has agreed to deport only those terrorists whose Indian citizenships were well established. It has flatly refused to hand over those Pakistanis even if their involvement in attacks on India were proved beyond doubt. Nevertheless, the series of deportations has sent a strong message to state and non-state actors in Pakistan that Saudi Arabia is no longer “a safe haven or staging point for Islamic extremists who use the country to exploit both Salafist sympathizers and the South Asian diaspora to raise funds and to scout talent for jihad”. This is a good beginning.

As a chair of Counter Terrorism Committee of the UN (for 2011-12), India should make best use of the opportunity to steer counter-terrorism efforts in a more serious and unbiased manner. What is required at this stage is a comprehensive international counter-terrorism convention. India should aggressively push for this. India should also seek to enhance cooperation among various international institutions and national authorities engaged in fighting terrorism that will help strengthen the implementation of best practices globally and will give adequate assistance for capacity-building of nationstates in fighting terrorism. Our effort should be to create a web of cooperative partnerships. Since terrorism has become a global menace, cooperation with other friendly countries that are also victims of terror is crucial in countering it.

The author is Senior Fellow, Vivekananda International Foundation, New Delhi December 2012

Arms Bazaar N With President Vladimir Putin visiting India this month, it is quite likely that he will try to reverse the downward momentum of the defence business between India and Russia, writes Amit Kumar

www.geopolitics.in

ot so long in history, the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was the powerhouse of military hardware and its defence industry was the engine of her economic growth. The same cannot be said about the successor state of the erstwhile Soviet Union, the Russian Federation, which inherited the priced legacy of a strong military-industrial complex (MIC) from the USSR, but could not sustain the tempo due to a variety of reasons viz., the economic crisies of the 1990s, changed foreign policy orientations and domestic compulsions. However, the sincere and concerted efforts of President Vladimir Putin are likely to reverse the downslide of the past and enthuse a new lease of life in the ailing Russian defence industry. Modernisation of the Russian armed forces, an essential component of which is MIC, is one of the key priority areas of Putin’s overall modernisation project. Significantly, India’s own military modernisation plan is to a great extent contingent upon the ability of the Russian MIC to deliver, since most of what India is going to acquire for its armed forces is to come from Russia, either by way of direct pur-

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Nockson/wikipedia

Russia’s

sign of the times: In a shift from a traditional reliance on Russian-made weaponry, the Mig-35 lost out to the French Rafale

chase or under licensed production or by producing jointly (see table).

It is significant to note that the signing of the ‘New Framework for India-US Defence Relationsip’ on June 28, 2005, has not affected the Indo-Russian defence cooperation. One reason for this could be the reluctance of the USA to transfer technology, since US domestic laws are very stringent on this count. As leading security expert Bharat Karnad says, “America is unlikely to transfer any critical technology or render help of the sort the Russians routinely have for cutting-edge DRDO projects.” However, things may change if the US keeps up its recent promises to have a relook at its strategy of arms exports to India. Another emerging player in the Indian defence sector is Israel. Israel is eating into Russia’s share of defence electronics; the Indian navy, in particular, has shown inclination for Israeli electronic equipments to bolster its surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. However, the Israeli defence industry is still in its infancy compared to the Russian arms industry. It is evident from the pie chart (see chart 2), which shows the share of major exporters of arms worldwide.

It is significant to note that the sign-

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ing of the ‘New Framework for India-US Defence Relationsip’ on June 28, 2005 has not affected the Indo-Russian defence cooperation. One reason for this could be the reluctance of the USA to transfer technology, since US domestic laws are very stringent on this count. As leading security expert Bharat Karnad says: “America is unlikely to transfer any critical technology or render help of the sort the Russians routinely have for cutting-edge DRDO projects.” However, things may change if the US keeps up its recent promises to have a relook at its strategy of arms exports to India. Another emerging player in the Indian defence sector is Israel. Israel is eating into Russia’s share of defence electronics; the Indian Navy, in particular, has shown inclination for Israeli electronic equipments to bolster its surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. However, the Israeli defence industry is still in its infancy compared to the Russian arms industry. It is evident from the pie chart (see chart 2), which shows the share of major exporters of arms worldwide.

With regard to indigenisation, it can be said that India’s quest for indigenisation must be balanced with the quest for rapid modernisation of its arsenals, especially at a time when China is modernising its own military at some pace. Building a case for India’s trusted defence partner Russia in modernising the Indian armed forces, Rod Thornton argues: “While New Delhi might want complete autarky in terms of weapons’ production, it has to remain conscious of the fact that this can never really be achieved and that making any significant strides in this direction will take a long time. But India does not really have the luxury of such time. The pressure to be an independent producer of a range of weapons systems—both low-tech and high-tech—has to be balanced by the pressure to field such systems quickly.

The need is still there to take the shortcut and to procure from abroad. The obvious choice here would be the traditional supplier, Russia.” To meet its security preparedness in a time-bound fashion India has placed huge orders of platforms and weapons from Russia (see table). But at the same time, India is making conscious efforts to move away from its over-reliance on Russia in defence arena. Consequently, it has placed defence orders with many other countries like, Israel, the USA, the UK, France etc. Moreover, in pursu-

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ance of its diversification policy India is about to sign purchase deal for 126 Medium Multi-Role Aircraft (MMRCA) fighter planes with French Dassault Rafale. Notwithstanding media reports stating that

the deal is far from final, the deal pegged at around `50,000 crore, is considered the decade’s largest military purchase and is all set to be finalised.

The MMRCA deal was seen in many

Transfer of Major Conventional Weapons by Russia to India (2000-2011)* Weapon designation

Weapon description

Year of order

Year(s) of deliveries

Il-38SD/May

ASW aircraft

2001

SET-65E

ASW torpedo

2003

15

Akula-2

Nuclear submarine

2004

1

Gorshkov

Aircraft carrier

2004

1

Il-38/May

ASW aircraft

2005

2009

2

2

MiG-29SMT/ Fulcrum

FGA aircraft

2005

2010-2011

16

16

Talwar

Frigate

2006

Su-30MK/ Flanker

FGA aircraft

2007

2007-2008

18

18

Mi-8MT/Mi17/Hip-H

Helicopter

2008

2011

80

10

Ka-31/Helix

AEW helicopter

(2009)

2011

5

5

MiG-29SMT Fulcrum

FGA aircraft

9M113/AT-5 Spandrel

Anti-tank missile

(1988)

1992-2011

25000

(12800)

PJ-10 BrahMos

Anti-ship MI/ SSM

(1998)

2006-2011

(1500)

160

Su-30MK/ Flanker

FGA aircraft

(2001)

2005-2011

140

(76)

T-90S

Tank

2001

2001-2006

310

310

AL-55

Turbofan

2005

T-90S

Tank

2006

(650)

Su-30MK/ Flanker

FGA aircraft

2007

2009-2011

40

38

T-90S

Tank

2007

2009-2011

347

250

MiG-29SMT/ Fulcrum

FGA aircraft

2008

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Su-30MK/ Flanker

FGA aircraft

2011

42

2008

Number ordered

Number delivered

3

3

3

2010

29

(250)

Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database *Transfers of major conventional weapons: Deals with deliveries or orders made for year range 2000 to 2011

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December 2012

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Vladimir Putin, Russian President

In the next 10 years, Russia will develop a massive arsenal that includes 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles, 50 warships, 2,300 tanks, 100 military spacecraft chain

quarters as the signalling to Russia that India wants to keep its options open.

However, India ruled out any such motive and affirmed that its defence acquisition policy was guided by professional and not political considerations. Addressing an International Seminar on Defence Acquisition organised by the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA), the Defence Minister AK Antony firmly stated that the defence acquisition in the country will not be propelled by political decisions and assured the vendors that they would get level playing field. He also said, up to the trial stage, technical soundness of a product will determine whether it will remain in race and after that it was the price that would determine its ultimate selection for procurement. Thus, it is unfair to attribute motives for the exclusion of Russian MiG-35 from the MMRCA deal. The rejection of the Russian bid was a blow to the Russian defence industry, which missed on a golden opportunity to bag a high-profile defence deal, which would have spurred the growth of its MIC, which many analysts believe is ageing and uncompetitive.

The chart dispels the notion that Russian arms industry is dying; it is not competitive and so on and so forth. Contrary to the general perception, Russia is catching up with the USA, which is on top of the list and the gap between the two has

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been narrowing since 2001. What is notable here is that the third biggest supplier on the list that is France is a distant third to Russia, with the gap between the two is ever widening. As Russia-expert Arun Mohanty argues:,” If the first decade following the Soviet disintegration saw an unprecedented decline in the MIC, developments in the past decade suggest a radical revamping of the complex, which has been driven by a prudent policy followed by the government.”

The Russian government in the past decade took a major initiative in the form of restructuring of MIC through the formation of a host of competitive big holding companies in aviation, space, air defence systems, shipbuilding and nuclear sectors. Russia plans to have 40 such large conglomerates with concentration of technological and financial resources by

2015. This step of the Russian government has created possibilities for revamping of the Russian defence industry.

Further, it has been pointed out that Russia lags behind in high-technology, which is considered the driver of defenceindustrial growth. To this it can be said that although, traditional sources of support for high-technology industries, of which arms industry is also a part, have confronted problems in Russia in the period following the disintegration of the USSR; to compensate for this loss new sources of support have emerged in Russia in recent years. As Keith Crane and Artur Usanov say: “Foreign companies have spurred growth in Russia’s hightechnology industries through subcontracting, joint ventures, wholly-owned research laboratories, or funding research by independent laboratories or academic

the way ahead: The BrahMos missile programme has been a huge success, with large numbers of missiles ordered by the Indian armed forces

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December 2012

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plans for Russian armed forces. Herein he also talked about the Russian MIC. Among Putin’s specific recommendations pertaining to MIC outlined in the article are the following:

preeminence. The MIC has an important role to play in this, but the challenges that it faces currently pose some serious question marks over the turn it may take in the next decade or so.

Vladimir Putin’s 3rd Presidentship and revamping of MIC Vladimir Putin is widely credited for the resurgence of Russia. If in the first two consecutive terms of his Presidency the focus was on the stabilisation of the country, the third term which comes after a gap of four years, brings hope of a triumphant Russia. In the run-up to the presidential election Putin outlined his views on various issues confronting the nation in a series of articles. In his 6th election programme article published in government-run Rossiyskaya Gazeta in February this year, Putin spelled out his

 Provide approximately 23 trillion rubles (around $ 770 billion) to support innovation and modernise Russia’s military and defence industry over the next 10 years.  Establish ten research and education centres to transform military education and stimulate defence industry research and development with the help of universities.  Develop critical technologies for producing competitive products.  Equip all branches of the military with the latest weapons technology. In the next 10 years, Russia will develop a massive arsenal that includes 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles, 50 warships, 2,300 tanks, 100 military spacecraft, and “10 brigade kits of Iskander-M missile systems.”

Putin in this article also talked about projecting power abroad through naval exercises and patrols, especially in the Arctic region. This implies that Russia with its improved GDP is keen to project its global ambitions and as in the past its military will play an important role in this plan, since military capability is an important component of power-projection. This augurs well for the Russian MIC, which is in constant look for opportunities and an outward looking Russia will provide it with bigger opportunities. The Current Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Federation Council of Russia said in an interview on The Voice of Russia that he endorsec the view of many commentators that Russians would see in Putin a ‘new old president’. So the big question mark according to him will be what will be new and what will be old. According to him, the foreign policy goals will remain very similar to what Putin propounded in the beginning of the century. But since the society has changed, Russian people have been transformed into citizens from consumers, Russian growth is no more fuelled only by high hydro-carbon prices; ‘from stability to speedy development or modernisation’ will be the new element in ‘New Putin.’ The Russians place great hope in Putin and he is expected to lead Russia once again to a position of

Challenges Ahead India and China are currently Russia’s two most important clients, accounting for around 70 per cent of total Russian sales in recent years. India in particular has shown extreme reliance on Russian defence supplies. However, in view of the increased emphasis on indigenous defence capabilities in both the countries, Russian defence industry is likely to face a reduced demand for its products from both India and China in foreseeable future. China in particular has been showing steady signs of indigenisation as is evident in its efforts to indigenously develop aircraft carriers and development of its military aerospace capabilities. Similarly, India poses a challenge by its diversification policy. Leading security expert Bharat Karnad says that the Indian government believes Russia doesn’t mind the new Indian policy of “diversifying” defence supplies. Whatever be the element of truth in it, the Russian defence industry seems to be gearing up for such a scenario in which neither of its two most-valued clients is captive market for Russian arms industry.

Moreover, Russia has employed a pragmatic strategy to augment its defence supplies. It is showing much more flexibility in its defence cooperation with other countries. Rather than being insistent upon buyer-seller relationship in bilateral dealings, cooperative arrangement routes like licensed production of weapons, and joint ventures have been explored. India is a prime example of this Russian strategy to explore cooperative defence framework. The table cites a number of such initiatives between the two countries.

Meanwhile, India’s quest for a futuristic stealth fifth-generation fighter, which will see the country spend around $35 billion over the next 20 years in its biggest-ever defence project, has entered into the decisive phase now. India and Russia are getting all set to ink the full and final design or R&D phase contract for the 5th Gen fighter by this year-end or early-2013. This will give a big boost to the Russian MIC also.

brahmos

institutions, Russian scientists are also frequently engaged as consultants. These new activities have markedly changed R&D in Russia and the nature of Russian high–technology industries.”

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The author is a Research Analyst, The Institute For Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi December 2012

ebay

g

genesis of an alliance: This is a rare picture on sale at ebay. The then Indian Prime Minister Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev.

The 1962 War was the beginning of the Indo-Soviet strategic relationship

THE SOVIET STAND ON THE INDIA-CHINA WAR Newly-released material in Russia suggests that the then Soviet Union’s position on the Sino-Indian border conflicts was not of neutrality, as is widely believed. It evolved from neutrality to a brief tilt in favour of China and then switched to clear support for India, writes ARUN MOHANTY from Moscow

T

he 1962 India-China border conflict took place at a time when the ideological differences between the two communist giants—the then USSR and China—were reaching the peak. It also took place at a time when the Cold War was at its height between the Socialist Bloc and the Capitalist West, as reflected in the Cuban Missile Crisis. These two developments had a profound impact on the evolution of the Soviet position on the India-China border clash.

Fresh material suggests that, contrary to the generally accepted view that the former Soviet Union by and large main-

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tained neutrality all through the IndiaChina War, its stand on the issue fluctuated from a position of neutrality, to a brief tilt towards China, and then open sympathy and support for India. While scholars generally agree that the territorial dispute as well as the situation around Tibet was at the root of the clash, new archival materials suggest that aggressive Chinese behaviour had a deeper and far more serious motive. At the time China had aimed at dragging the Soviet Union somehow to the India-China conflict in order to expose “Soviet Revisionism” and score a point against Moscow in the burgeoning ideological conflict between the

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two Communist giants in order to achieve primacy in the international Communist movement.

Towards the end of the 1950s, in spite of serious differences between the Communist parties of the Soviet Union and China over a wide range of issues, the leadership of both parties had tried not to demonstrate the cracks in their bilateral relations on the surface. However, in August 1959, when the Longju incident in the eastern sector of the India-China border took place, Moscow, having expressed solidarity with Beijing during the suppression of the uprising in Tibet in early 1959, refused to extend support so unequivo-

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munists and worsened the position of Communist Party of India. New evidence suggests Chinese adventurists were least bothered about the perspective of struggle of the revolutionary forces in India and the Communist Party of India was an object of constant attack by Chinese propaganda, starting from 1959.

Finally, the Soviet leadership was apprehensive about China’s bellicosity towards India that would have an impact on the Sino-Soviet border issue subsequently. In this connection, it is interesting to note about the report sent by Soviet foreign ministry on the Sino-Soviet boundary to the CPSU leadership at that point of time. The very drafting of such a document suggests that some Soviet officials had already foreseen the danger of a border dispute with China.

In this connection it is interesting to have a look at another document: a report dated December 18, 1959, drafted by Mikhail Suslov, CPSU ideologue in charge of relations with fraternal Communist parties about the visit of the Soviet party and government delegation led by Nikita Khrushchev to China in October, 1959.

The document recalls that Suslov, after criticising Beijing’s actions in exacerbating international relations, Mao’s thesis that imperialists were paper tigers and China’s cavalier attitude towards nuclear war, addressed the issue of Sino-Indian tensions and the border clashes at Longju

and Kongka in 1959. Suslov is quoted as berating the Chinese for the May 1959 People’s Daily article, “The Revolution in Tibet and Nehru’s Philosophy”, in the document. Suslov writes: “Nehru is a wellknown politician. One cannot rule out that to some degree he was involved in the intrigues against the PRC (People’s Republic of China). But Nehru is far-sighted enough to recognise the vital importance of India’s friendship with China, with the Soviet Union and the whole Socialist camp. Nehru behaved with reserve. In his numerous speeches he admitted that Tibet is a part of China, he spoke against the establishment of a so-called ‘Government of Dalai Lama in exile’, stressing the significance of Sino-Indian friendship. India repeatedly raised the issue of restoration of rights of the PRC in the UNO (United Nations Organisation). Precisely these actions made the rightist burgeoise circles in India, who are linked to Anglo-American capital to assail Nehru…If these reactionary circles in India succeed, it would cause serious damage to the socialist camp and the entire cause of peace, since the present foreign policy line of the Nehru government is a positive factor in the struggle for strengthening peace.”

Suslov then goes on to ask: “What objectives did Chinese comrades pursue in attacking Nehru so uncompromisingly?” He ridicules a view expressed by his Chinese interlocutors that visualised the

US Library of Congress

cally to China. The Soviet stand on the India-China border dispute was reflected in two documents — the TASS (news agency) report dated September 9, 1959, and the Soviet Prime Minister’s report on the ‘International situation and the foreign policy of Soviet Union’ placed in the Supreme Soviet on October 31, 1959.

These two documents clearly suggest that the Soviet leadership was keen to see that hostilities between India and China did not escalate, and had maintained a position of neutrality in the beginning of the India-China conflict.

However, Soviet Union’s neutrality on the issue was obviously not to the liking of the People’s Republic of China. The fact that the Soviet Union did not take a clear ‘class position’ in a conflict between a Socialist state and a bourgeois state evoked anger from the Chinese leadership. In a confidential letter to the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union on September 13, 1959, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China accused the Soviet government of “accommodation and compromise on important matters of principle” and noted: “The TASS report showed to the world the different positions of China and the Soviet Union in regard to the incident on the Indian-Chinese border, which causes a virtual glee and jubilation among the Indian bourgeois and the American and English imperialists, who are in every possible way driving a wedge between China and the Soviet Union.”

There were several reasons why the then Soviet President, Khruschev could not swallow Mao’s views on India-China ties. For Khruschev, Nehru was an invaluable asset in his global strategy of peaceful co-existence and peaceful competition with the capitalist world. Khruschev had floated the peaceful co-existence and peaceful competition strategy in the historic 20th CPSU Congress held in 1956 and was experimenting with the concept in the case of India. Implementing this strategy, that was not to the liking of the Chinese leadership, Khruschev had ushered in a new era in the annals of IndoSoviet relations. He obviously could neither risk nor sacrifice Soviet friendship with India for China’s whimsical ideological moorings that denounced India’s non-alignment policy in which the Soviet Union had discovered a virtue. Khruschev was no less concerned about the fact that the India-China border conflict created a precarious situation for Indian Com-

Communist camaraderie: Chinese Dictator Mao Zedong and Russian leader Nikita Khrushchev share a light moment in better times

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December 2012

DPR/MOD

g Visiting the front:Prime Minister Pt. Jawaharlal Nehru interacting with Army personnel at Charduar in November1962

possibility of the downfall of the Nehru government and saw no great trouble if a reactionary pro-Western government captured power in India because that would bring closer a revolution in India. Suslov notes that the Communist Party of India (CPI) General Secretary Ajay Ghosh also admitted his inability to explain China’s position on the McMahon Line or why the PRC was letting itself be pulled in by the ‘Indian reaction’ into the border conflict.

Suslov then goes on to describe Chinese actions as directed not only against India but also against the USSR, since they embarrassed Khrushchev on the eve of his own long-awaited summit with President Eisenhower in the USA. The Suslov report, too, provides an account of the discussions on India at Khrushchev’s summit meeting with Mao on October 2, 1959, where all the members of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of Chinese Communist Party were present. The Suslov report says that Khrushchev told the Chinese comrades that ‘we do not completely understand their foreign policy, particularly with regard to India’. The Soviet leader complained that as China’s ally, the Soviet side did not know what the Chinese might undertake tomorrow in the area of foreign policy. The report says that the Chinese side, in their reply, claimed that their line towards Nehru was correct adding that “at times the tone of our discussion became quite sharp”. It came to the point when Chinese Foreign Minister Chen Yi claimed that “our line on Nehru is opportunistic and the policy of China is more firm and correct. We gave a resolute rebuff to these pronouncements,” writes Suslov, without providing any details.

A careful reading of the report would indicate that Beijing’s policy towards India was putting the Soviet leaders in an impossible dilemma—either to support www.geopolitics.in

what they believed as Mao’s adventurist actions for the sake of an increasingly illusory Sino-Soviet alliance, undermining thus Moscow’s growing ties with India and the West or to take a balanced stand at the risk of an open split with the Chinese leadership. The Soviet approach to the Chinese invasion of India in October 1962 was in the beginning reflected in the CPSU mouthpiece Pravda, dated October 25, 1962, which said: “Soviet people hold the firm view that in the present situation, main thing is to stop fighting and start talks on peaceful resolution of the conflict… Such a decision would correspond to the interests of both Indian and Chinese people and would serve the cause of preservation of peace in Asia and in the whole world.”

At this stage of the India-China border conflict, Soviet policy was clearly influenced by the Cuban missile crisis in which the US and the Soviet Union had locked their horns in the worst-ever confrontation of the Cold War period. Khrushchev sent a letter to Pandit Nehru urging him to accept Zhou Enlie’s offer for a ceasefire and talks. The Soviet Union also suspended the supplies of MiG fighters under the agreement reached between the two sides in August 1962. It was a clear tilt towards China, which has to be understood against the backdrop of the Cuban missile crisis that reached its peak at that time, and Moscow was ostensibly striving to secure Chinese support against US designs. The Indian Ambassador to the Soviet Union T N Kaul too, attests this view. Ambassador Kaul in his memoirs writes: “Their (Soviet) attitude at the end of October 1962 was not even neutral but slightly tilted in favour of China, and this was, as Khruschev explained to me later, due to the fact that the Cuban crisis was at its height and the Soviet Union could not afford to relax its combat readiness for a possible conflict

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with the USA over Cuba.” That the tilt was temporary became clear from Khrushchev’s statement to the Supreme Soviet in December 1962, when he reverted to a position of neutrality on the India-China conflict and ordered the release of MiG fighter planes. As the Cuban missile crisis subsided, Moscow slowly but surely started showing sympathy to India in its conflict with China. Kaul in this context writes, “As further time went by and India showed a spirit of determination to resist China’s aggression, the Soviets were impressed. Their attitude became more sympathetic towards India, both in their public statements and even more so, in their private conversations.” This was the first time in history that a socialist state supported a developing country in its fight against another socialist state.

This snowballed Sino-Soviet differences which gradually came out into the open.

As Khrushchev confided to Kaul, one of the reasons for strained relations between China and the Soviet Union was Soviet friendship with India.

China had expected Soviet support for its action against India, which in Beijing’s view, was contemplating a hidden alliance with the USA against it and sought to “expose ideological hollowness of Moscow’s support to India”. China had expected that Moscow’s support in favour of a socialist state against a bourgeois state would deliver a heavy blow to the growing Indo-Soviet friendship. However, the Soviets never wanted Sino-Indian conflict to escalate and advised both sides to find a peaceful political solution to the border dispute through negotiations. They were also watching how India would emerge from the conflict and how China and the West would react. The declaration of a ‘unilateral ceasefire’ by China, was in Soviet eyes, a recognition by China of India’s unity and potential strength. They were expecting India to go down on its knees and beg for peace. When this did not happen and they saw the unity and determination of India to resist, they made a virtue out of necessity by declaring a unilateral ceasefire.

The Soviets had, perhaps, underestimated India’s potential at first, but were impressed with Nehru’s adherence to the policy of non-alignment. They also saw the attempts of the West to turn India against them and India’s refusal to do so. Both India and the Soviet Union found common ground in the danger from the Sino-Pak Axis, which would pose a threat not only to India, but also to the Soviet Union’s southern underbelly, the Central Asian Republics, which were then parts of the USSR. (The author is a Professor at JNU and Director, Eurasian Foundation, New Delhi) December 2012

GEOPOLITICS

EXCERPTS

The Great Game East Settled in Asia since 1975, Swedish-born Bertil Lintner has a unique perspective of the region.

Lintner was a senior writer for the Far Eastern Economic Review and now writes for Asia Times Online. His latest book Great Game East is an account of the game of shadows between Asian titans. We bring you excerpts from the book which talks about the Indian reaction to suspected Chinese installations on the Burmese Cocos Islands.

Author: Bertil Lintner Harper Collins Publishers Pages: 464 Price: 699

P

ort Blair must be one of the prettiest towns in India. Perched on a series of green hills overlooking an azureblue ocean, and with a population of just over 100,000, it has a laid-back feel to it.

There is hardly any litter even at the bus and taxi stand near what is still called Aberdeen Market. Indigenous tribes of black people inhabit the interior of the islands, but Port Blair itself and other towns here have over the past century and a half been settled by Bengali, Tamil, Punjabi, Telugu, Malayali and other migrants from the Indian mainland — and even some Burmese - who now all live in harmony with each other. ******** Incongruous as it may seem, this picwww.geopolitics.in

turesque place has also been the setting for one of the most bizarre cloak-anddagger stories in recent Asian history. And behind that remarkable tale lies a tangled web of diverse interest that could turn these islands, and the Indian Ocean which surrounds them, into the next flashpoint in the rivalry between India and China.

In February 1998, the Indian media reported that a gang of international gunrunners had been intercepted in a joint operation mounted by the army, the navy, the air force and the coastguards. More than seventy men had been apprehended on ‘Longoff Island’ in the Andamans and 145 guns seized. Six gunrunners were said to have been killed in a skirmish with the security forces, according to the reports.

The shipment was headed for Chittagong, The Times of India reported, and consisted of automatic rifles, rocket launchers, machine guns, communication sets and several hundred thousand rounds of ammunition. The guns had been purchased in Cambodia, transported through Thailand, and were meant to be delivered to rebels in India’s north-east.!

But there was something that did not sound just right in the press reports about this particular incident. ‘There is certain information we cannot give owing to the sensitivity of diplomatic relations involved,’ assistant chief of navy staff operation, Rear Admiral Madanjit Singh, rather

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cryptically told The Times of India. And no one could find ‘Longoff Island’ on any map of the area. The action, which was code-named ‘Operation Leech’, had in fact occurred on Landfall Island, the northernmost of the Andamans.

And the so-called gunrunners turned out not to be that at all. There were two Thai captains and thirty-five Thai and Cambodian crew on the fishing trawlers that had brought them there. But thirtysix of those arrested were Arakanese and Karen rebels from Burma — who had worked closely with Indian intelligence officers and provided them with information about the activities of northeastern insurgents. In 1995, they had even passed on information that helped Indian security forces capture arms being smuggled by those rebels from Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh to India in an operation code-named ‘Golden Bird’.

Nandita Haksar, an Indian lawyer who looked into the case, quotes in her book Rogue Agent one of the detained Arakanese rebels as saying that they had had meetings in Thailand with a Burmese-speaking colonel of the Indian military intelligence named Vijay Singh ‘Gary’ Grewal long before they set sail for the Andamans. He and other Indian intelligence officers had actually invited them to use Landfall Island, which is uninhabited, as a base for their struggle against the military regime in December 2012

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Rangoon. Weapons could be stored there and the rebels could retreat to the island after conducting operations on the Burmese mainland. In return, the Burmese rebels would monitor the illicit arms traffic in the Andaman Sea to make sure ships carrying guns to the Nagas, the Manipuris and the Assamese could be intercepted.

More importantly, the Indians wanted them to spy on a new radar station on the Burmese Coco Islands, which is located just north of Landfall Island. The radar station, it was reported, had been built with assistance from China. And if China gained a toehold in the Indian Ocean, even indirectly through the Burmese naval base on the Coco Islands, they would be able to collect intelligence about India’s movements in the region. And, as had been reported already in 1994, Indian coastguards on the Andamans had intercepted three fishing trawlers flying the Burmese flag but with a Chinese crew and stocked with radio communication and depth-sounding equipment. ********* The rationale for supporting certain groups among the Karen and Arakanese rebels was the same as for sending arms and ammunition to the Kachin in the far north of Burma: to prevent arms from reaching the insurgents in the north-east and, of course, to keep an eye on China.

But regardless of differences in opinion when it came to how India should deal with Burma’s military government, the main concern has always been the same: what is really happening on the Coco Islands? Are the Chinese there, and, if so, in what capacity? Is there a signals intelligence post on the island? And is it monitoring the movements of the Indian Navy in the Indian Ocean or, even more menacing, India’s test range for ballistic missiles and space launch vehicles on its eastern coast, the Indian Space Research Organization at Sriharikota in Andhra Pradesh, and the Defence Research and Development Organization at Chandipur-on-Sea in Orissa? Some Indian analysts suggested that the reported construction of a military base in Great Coco, the main island in the Burmese territory, was linked to China’s long-term expansionist designs in the entire Asia-Pacific region.

Others began talking about China’s ‘String of Pearls’ - a series of planned Chinese bases, or bases which China would have access to —stretching from the Midwww.geopolitics.in

dle East to Gwadar in Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Burma. The term was coined by Christopher J. Pehrson in a 2006 paper for the US Army War College: ‘String of Pearls: Meeting the Challenge of China’s Rising Power across the Asian Littoral’. It would certainly make sense. No longer self sufficient in fossil fuel, China now has to import oil and gas from the former Soviet Central Asia and the Middle East. China is also planning to build a pipeline through Burma to avoid the sensitive and potentially volatile Strait of Malacca to facilitate its oil imports from Middle Eastern countries. For this purpose, and to import natural gas from the fields in the sea south of Burma, China signed an agreement with Burma in March 2009 to build a natural gas pipeline and, in June 2009, a crude oil pipeline from the new deepwater port of Kyaukphyu near Sittwe in Arakan state all the way to Kunming in Yunnan.

I was one of the first to report on China’s new focus on the Indian Ocean in the Far Eastern Economic Review as far back as 1993. Apart from the delivery of Chinese-made, Hainan-class fast attack craft to Burma, Chinese technicians were also helping the Burmese upgrade their naval facilities near Rangoon and in the southeast, and to build new ones. I mentioned the Coco Islands, adding that, ‘although China’s presence in the Bay of Bengal is currently limited to instructors and technicians, the fact that the new radar equipment about to be installed in the Coco Islands is Chinese-made — and likely to be operated at least in part by Chinese technicians — will enable Beijing’s intelligence agencies to monitor this sensitive maritime region. My reports as well as those by others caused alarm bells to go off in India and elsewhere, leading to wild exaggerations and misperceptions of what was actually happening on the Coco Islands. Indian analyst and commentator on regional security, Brahma Chellaney, went so far as to say that Chinese ‘security agencies already operate electronic-intelligence and maritime-reconnaissance facilities on the two Coco Islands in the Bay of Bengal. India transferred the Coco Islands to Burma in the 1950s, and Burma then leased the islands to China in 1994.

Nothing could be more incorrect.

The British colonial authorities in Kolkata transferred jurisdiction of the Coco Islands, which then had little more than a lighthouse on them, from the Andaman Islands administration to British Burma,

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then an Indian province, in 1882. When Burma was separated from India in 1937 and became a separate Crown Colony, the Coco Islands remained Burmese territory.13 They were formally handed over to Subhas Chandra Bose’s provisional Azad Hind government when the Japanese occupied the Andamans during World War II. But in reality the Coco Islands were administered by the Japanese navy until the end of the war. In 1945, they were once again under Burma, and remained a Burmese territory after independence in 1948. In 1953, India sought to lease the lighthouse on Great Coco, but the request was denied. ********* The idea of a new Indian Far Eastern Naval Command, FENC, was reportedly hatched in 1995 following a closed-door meeting in Washington between India’s then prime minister, P.V. Narasimha Rao, and the US president, Bill Clinton. The plan was finalized when Clinton visited India in 2000, and as an Indian journalist reported at the time, ‘FENC will have state-of-theart naval electronic warfare systems that can extend as far as Southeast Asia.’

The newly created Andaman and Nicobar Command of the Indian armed forces coordinates the activities of all three services in the Indian Ocean. This is India’s first such integrated command and an Indian Navy website points out that the archipelago ‘is at a distance of approximately 1,200 kilometres from India’s Eastern seaboard and 450 kilometres from the Malay Peninsula. Myanmar’s (Burma’s) Coco Islands towards the North, are just 42 kilometres away and Aceh in Indonesia is 163 kilometres from the southernmost tip of Great Nicobar Island.’

Idyllic Port Blair has become as crucial to the defence of India as any major military base in the Himalayas, and it is not difficult to understand why. And, speaking at a round-table conference held on 12 April 2010 - organized by the New Delhi-based think tank, the National Maritime Foundation Chief Admiral Gary Roughead of the US navy stated that America’s leaders at the highest level have declared that the US and India would be strategic partners for the twenty-first century: ‘I’m here to say that the United States navy in particular is a committed friend to India for the long term.’ The aim of this cooperation has never been stated officially, but is nevertheless clear: to counter the rise of China.

December 2012

geopolitics

right angle

VIP Security

O

ne overlooked dimension of the recent fratricidal episode relating to liquor-baron Ponty Chadha in Delhi explains why our security-system, policing in particular, is beset with some serious structural handicaps. As a system, policing in India is highly lopsided.

For one, it is insufficient. For another, it is inequitable. Let me explain.

India is one of the least-policed countries in the world.

India has 145 policemen for every one hundred thousand (a lakh) citizens. This is in sharp contrast to the corresponding figure of 315 in the United States, 200 in the United Kingdom and 290 in Australia. That policing in India is inequitable is because here lives of some citizens seem to be much more important than that of others. We have what is called the VIP syndrome. As a result, the cream of our police personnel is engaged in providing VIP security. But then, there is no transparent method of determining who is a VIP to be provided that security.

Ponty Chadha, for instance, was a VIP getting state security. But then, what is important to note here is that though he was ordinarily a resident of Delhi, his personal security officers Prakash (PSOs) were from Punjab Police. The question here is whether the Punjab Police was adequate enough to have spared its personnel to provide security to persons living outside the state. Unfortunately, that is not the case, as not long ago the Punjab and Haryana High Court had directed the state government to remove “the ugly security tents that dot over 60 Ministers and MLAs, 12 officials and 75 judges’ homes across Chandigarh”. The Court said that compared to ordinary people, the persons concerned did not face any security threats and that they kept the security men “more as a status symbol”. But what was worse was that this March, it was discovered that about 2,800 Punjab policemen — the strength of three battalions — were deployed as cooks, drivers, gardeners and even masseurs in VIP households across Punjab! Apparently, the state government has now recalled these hapless police personnel, if deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal is to be believed.

But then Punjab, where over 8000 police personnel, constituting more than one-tenth of the 70,000-strong police force, are engaged in VIP duty, is not doing anything unique.

The practice is rampant all over the country. In fact, as a state, it is Bihar which has the highest percentage of its police personnel that is devoted to VIP security. According to an estimate by the Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D), 3030 VIPs in Bihar enjoyed security provided by more than 10,000 policemen, about 10-12 per cent of the existing strength of the state police force — around 70,000, including 400 deputy superintendents of police, 13,000 inspectors, sub-inspectors, assistant sub-inspectors. And this despite the fact that the police-public ratio in Bihar is far less

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than the national average — the state has only 79 policemen for one lakh people.

Take the case of Assam, one of the most troubled states in the country. Here too, of the total police strength of around 70,000 personnel, more than 8,000 policemen are engaged in the security of VIPs. Such instances can be cited all over, including in the national capital Delhi. More than 14,000 of 60,000 Delhi Police personnel provide security to 8,800 VIPs in a city that is inhabited by nearly 20 million people. But that is not all. Many Delhi VIPs also get additional security cover of National Security Guard (NSG). The Special Protection Group (SPG) protects the families of the Prime Minister, former Prime Minister Vajpayee and Sonia Gandhi. In fact, the annual budget of the SPG is now over ` 279 crore. And if you add the annual budget of the NSG of about ` 200 crore, not to speak of the expenditure incurred by the Delhi Police and the police in various states, the cost of the VIP security will touch a whopping figure. Apparently, this cost is being adjusted out of the overall budgeting of internal security, thus compromising on the security of the countless ordinary people of the country — Aam Admi.

Nanda Obviously, the VIP list needs to be pruned as Home Minister P Chidambaram had undertaken such an exercise. The Home Ministry had drastically downsized the number of the VIPs, particularly those getting NSG cover. But such was the power that the affected VIPs enjoy under the present ruling establishment that Chidambaram’s exercise came a-cropper.

Under normal circumstances and in a country that respects the rules of law and the spirit behind them, determining the security needs of a person is the job of professional security experts. But, in India, what happens is that it is the political bosses (Ministers, Chief Ministers/Prime Minister) who often determine who will be provided special security by overruling the recommendations of the officials of the committees that are meant for this very purpose. This phenomenon has become all the more perverse over recent years under coalition regimes. Unstable governments have been forced to accede to the demands of the leaders of the coalition partners and supporters — and they include religious persons, journalists and businessmen — who view security strictly as a status symbol.

Needless to say, PSOs provided by the State are often misused by the beneficiaries. No wonder then that when a woman president of a religious organisation in Punjab was charged with murder, her PSO, an ASI from the Punjab Police, was the prime accused. And no wonder why a constable of the Uttarakhand Police, a PSO, is under the scanner now for his role in the murders of Ponty Chadha and his brother.

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prakashnanda@newsline.in

December 2012