Geopolitics

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FARNBOROUGH 2012: PLENTY OF OPTIMISM

geopolitics VOL III, ISSUE III, AUGUST 2012

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`100

The h Frencction

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D E F E N C E n D I P L O M A C Y n S E C U R I T Y

POWER IT IS THE ARTILLERY THAT WINS THE WAR

PLUS

n Will Bhutan do a Nepal to India? n Wanted: An Aerospace Command n Navy and Nuclear Triad n Paramilitary and small arms


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COVER STORY (P48)

The structure of India’s artillery should be based on four essential pillars: weapons, appropriate ammunition, surveillance and target acquisition capabilities, and communications.

ARMY.MIL

LORD OF THE BATTLEFIELD

PANORAMA (P10)

MOD.UK

AIRANDSPACE.SI.EDU

PERSPECTIVE (P12)

SECURING OUTER SPACE FORTRESS LONDON Extraordinary measures have been taken to guard London against any terrorist attacks against the backdrop of the 2012 Olympics.

Security of space assets would be the game-changer in any future war and to ensure this, a dedicated military space command has become the need of the hour.

SPECIAL FEATURE (P40)

DEF BIZ (P31)

INTERNAL SECURITY (P60)

CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM

SEARCH AND DESTROY

THE DECISIVE EDGE

There was optimism at Farnborough 2012 in spite of the global economy being in the midst of a recession.

Saab Defence is pitching its missiles for the Indian armed forces’ air defence requirements.

Careful employment of new weapons, coupled with discipline will certainly help the paramilitary forces combat extremists of various hues.

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August 2012


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DORNIER

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LOCKHEED MARTIN

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NEW-AGE DORNIER (P28)

HAWKING THE SEAHAWK (P38)

DEALING WITH NAXALS (P64)

THE FRENCH SUCCESSION (P72)

RUAG has engineered a new version of the venerable Dornier 228 to meet the evolving challenges of the future.

Lockheed Martin’s George Barton talks about the firm’s offer of the MH-60 to the Indian Navy for its multi-role helicopter programme.

There is a vital need for “appropriate technology” to be incorporated while dealing with the Maoists to blunt the local advantages enjoyed by them.

What does Francoise Hollande’s accession to the Elysee Palace mean for Indo-French relations?

FOCUS (P16) ENABLING THE NUCLEAR TRINITY

MTCSP.ORG.UK

With nuclear-powered ballistic-missilecarrying submarines under construction, the Indian Navy is poised to complete the nuclear-weapons triad, ensuring that the country’s strategic deterrence is sustainable.

DIPLOMACY (68)

BHUTAN’S CHOICES

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Editor-in-Chief

BHUTAN, SO FAR, HAS THROWN IN ITS

K SRINIVASAN Editor

Managing Editor

PRAKASH NANDA

GEOPOLITICS

Assistant Editor

Senior Correspondent

SAURAV JHA

JUSTIN C MURIK

ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

RUCHI SINHA

Designer

Photo Editor

MOHIT KANSAL

H C TIWARI

Copy Editor

COURTING OF THIMPHU HAS THROWN

ASHOK KUMAR

UP DIPLOMATIC CHALLENGES FOR

Staff Photographer

NEW DELHI

HEMANT RAWAT

Director (Corporate Affairs)

Director (Marketing)

Sr Manager (Sales & Marketing)

RAJIV SINGH

RAKESH GERA

PRAVEEN SHARMA

Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in.

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TO DO WITH CHINA, BUT BEIJING’S

TIRTHANKAR GHOSH

Consulting Editor Senior Designer

LOT WITH INDIA AND HAS VERY LITTLE

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FARNBOROUGH 2012: PLENTY OF OPTIMISM

geopolitics VOL III, ISSUE III, AUGUST 2012 `100

The ch

Fren n Connectio

D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y

POWER IT IS THE ARTILLERY THAT WINS THE WAR

PLUS

Will Bhutan do a Nepal to India? Wanted: An Aerospace Command Navy and Nuclear Triad Paramilitary and small arms

Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha The total number of pages in this issue is 84 with cover

August 2012


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LETTERS

LETTERS TO EDITOR

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read your cover story on the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) (A dream come true? July 2012) and I don’t agree with it in totality. If one goes by the simple argument that the LCA’s development has been going on for three decades, one can deduce that it is one of the longest development programmes for any aircraft. But for a programme so complex, simple arguments don’t hold water for long. As per government figures, the LCA Tejas programme is one of the cheapest programmes in the world. When compared to similar fourth-generation fighter development programmes, it is extremely cheap. The development cost of Tejas also includes the cost of development of infrastructure, capability, and associated industry. Everything in the Tejas has been developed with trial and errors. India did not have any prior mature fighter programme. Therefore it is wrong to call it a ‘Sour Dream’. Even though the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) has not been able to deliver what the Air Force needed, this should not be held against it, as it was the DRDO’s first programme, and India still does not have any aerospace industry worth mentioning. One can analyse the development programmes of the Gripen, Rafale, F-35 and Eurofighter to see their delays, cost escalation, performance, etc and compare it with the Tejas. Of course, all is not right with the Tejas programme, but it has contributed tremendously towards the capability development. The author has accepted the fact that the programme has helped build capability within the country but he has not given any details about it. The author should www.geopolitics.in

have mentioned the numerous private industries which have benefited from LCA’s development and contributed to it. Then the knowledge vacuum that exists about the private participation in LCA would be filled. Regards Kuldeep Delhi

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host in the Machine’ (Panorama, July 2012) was an eye catcher. As in the past, your Panorama has conveyed much more than what words alone could have. The graphics were selfexplanatory and informative and it is interesting to see things in a different manner. Brigadier Gurmeet Kanwal’s piece on the tests before the new Army chief General Bikram Singh(Challenges before the army, July 2012), was a well written piece but I have some reservations about the idea behind the article. What is so different about the challenges that General Bikram is going to face? Haven’t the previous chiefs faced the same challenges? The only thing that is different is the media war that has happened between the Defence Ministry and Army before his arrival at the hallowed post. People are reading too much into General VK Singh’s tenure. A Chief’s tenure should be analysed a few years after he relinquishes his post. Every new project takes years to reach completion and the right time to assess it would be

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after its completion. I find the challenge of modernisation and improving the internal health of the Army a perennial challenge for every army chief. Therefore, I don’t see any new challenge for General Bikram Singh. Regards Sadanand Singh Chandigarh

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our magazine contains many interesting articles and sections. I liked the new format of the DefBiz section. The production quality of your magazine is praiseworthy and one comes across new features every few issues. The BizIntel section is another item that will be of great use to the defence fraternity. Your magazine correctly broke the news of the down selection of the Tactical Communication Systems tender. I am looking forward to similar revelations in the future. From what I have read, your story on the new version of the Pinaka rocket system under development (Extending tactical reach, July 2012) was the first story on the subject. It is interesting to read that the DRDO was able to increase the rocket’s range at such a short duration. The future looks bright for Indian forces. Regards Kaushalendra Jha Mumbai All correspondence may be addressed to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013. OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in. August 2012



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Fake currency and

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rust there to be plenty of melodrama and pathos when Pakistan and India get together. If it's not Kashmir, it can be the present tempo bhai bhai between the two neighbours or even the quality of cloth you get at Anarkali or Gulberg in Lahore as opposed to Karol Bagh or Central Market in Delhi. That wasn't the case though when Major General Rizwan Akhtar of the Sindh Rangers, on being asked by Indian journalists about the fake Indian currency being infiltrated from Pakistan, retorted that since the currency was being used in India, they could have also been made here as well (as if Indian currency could be used elsewhere!). The occasion was the conclusion of the bi-annual conference between the Pakistan Rangers and Border Security Force in Delhi in the first week of July. The Pakistani delegation, comprising 18 officials of the border force and the Interior Ministry, was headed by the Major General and clearly they had enjoyed plenty of bonhomie and a crackling good interaction with the BSF contingent represented by Director General UK Bansal and his team. Both sides agreed to hand over and take over the LoC (Line of Control) and border violators with least possible delay and take adequate measures to prevent violation of the border by their respective citizens. As the papers were being exchanged

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one innocuous incident lightened the mood. Somebody's cell phone rang out and the ringtone was that poignant song from the movie Veer Zaara: Jaanam dekh lo mit gayee dooriyan.

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The irony was not lost on anyone present although no one knows if indeed any 'dooriyan' had been erased during the meeting! Your turn, Mr Bansal!

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At last, General Bikram Singh met the press at the gargantuan Manekshaw Centre for high tea. Here is a piece of suggestion to Gen Singh. Move your media interactions closer to the city. It’s way off everyone's radar and getting there and back in this traffic is half a day's chore! If he does a straw poll, Maneckshaw (God Bless the Field Marshal!) will figure way down in any journo's list of favourite places. Anyway, the big man spoke with a big heart. He arrived with a bang and spoke to the gathered journalists. 'I have kept my promise of meeting you before the end of my first month in office', he told them. The warmth and bonhomie he displayed was in stark contrast to the final few months of Gen V K Singh's tenure when there was much tension. There was a belief in his team that the press was operating as a pro and anticamp. There were a few tall promises too: Gen Singh went on to further announce that he would meet one on one with every journalist in his office. Maybe that was to fob off the specifics. That was a little strange considering that this familiar figure who was in every drawing room during the Kargil operations is a past master in dealing with missives from the media. Maybe the withering fight of the last few months has drained the energy out of him and it will take a while for him to become the Bikram of yore! But he did remember and acknowledge his journalist friends from those days. Meanwhile, requests for his interviews are piling up and he is yet to start the process. General Singh, once again, will have to keep his words and start meeting journalists one by one. Everyone is eagerly waiting! Meanwhile, reports are that the days in the hut (the Eastern Command guest house in the Army cantonment) are over and his official residence is now ready for occupation.

The secret for the No 2 Recently, the media was abuzz with who would be the new No 2 in the government of India. India's 13th President Pranab Mukherjee had that honour for

the last six years (although it is another matter that Dr Manmohan Singh used to 'sir' him when he was the Finance Minister and the good doctor was the RBI Governor). Now that Pranab-da is out of the Cabinet, at least informally that chore has now gone to the Raksha Mantri (RM) AK Antony. It is worth mentioning that the number two in the Indian cabinet has a secret responsibility. He is briefed about Indian nuclear weapons by the nuclear command authority and in case of the Prime Minister's absence from the country it is he who has to deal with any nuclear threats. The nuclear command of India does not move with the PM across the globe. Therefore, this arrangement. Pranab-da, who was briefed by the nuclear command authority, a few years back for the first time, was viewed as a very enthusiastic student. Much to their amazement, he asked very pertinent questions of the officers at the interim nuclear command authority. It will be interesting to see who is selected by the Congress high command. For the first time, we will have a Supreme Commander of the Indian armed forces with complete briefing of its nuclear capabilities.

Pallam Raju and his machinations A defence correspondent from a leading English daily asked the Ministry of Defence about the meeting of Deputy Minister Pallam Raju with the wife of arms dealer Abhishek Verma at his office. The paper had the required documentary evidences. The ministry instead of replying to the query leaked the news to many newspapers. Media managers of the Ministry of Defence have started a new trend of leaking sensitive news to other papers. An unethical method of media management. Not a done thing, sir! Also, kya faida apne hi junior ko bad light mein dikha key. Chi, chi, chi‌

Beating the news drought The first half of this year was full of news from defence. The flow of news kept the beat correspondents busy like bees. After the taking over by the new Army Chief suddenly things have gone completely silent. The drought came after the deluge. But the dry spell did not last long. The corruption cases against the officers had ended the dry spell. The flow of news has again started. Thanks to the Army's bad internal health, beat correspondents are never devoid of any news. Now, if only the regular monsoon will be as good as the deluge in the army we will breathe a little easy. www.geopolitics.in

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FORTRESS AERIAL PATROLS The area above the Olympic park will be a no-fly zone. Eurofighter Typhoon fighters have been deployed in the skies over London.

MARINES ON CALL

MOD UK

Royal Marine commandos will patrol the Thames operating from highspeed boats, jet skis and helicopters

OLYMPIC GUARDIANS More than 12,000 police officers, around 13,500 military personnel and more than 13,000 private security guards have been deployed.

MOD UK

POSSIBLE THREATS Al Qaeda: Since carrying out the attacks on London's transport systems in 2005, the multinational group is the most obvious threat. Hate crimes: Attacks by fringe groups at football venues is common across Europe. Irish reprisal: Groups that have not reconciled to the Northern Ireland peace process. Lone wolf: Acts by radical individuals acting alone, such as the attack at the premiere of the latest Batman movie The Dark Night Rises in Denver, USA. Third-party hits: The ongoing tension over the Iran's quest for nuclear weapons lead to reprisals on Israeli targets across Asia recently.

xtraordinary measures have been taken to guard London against any terrorist attack against the backdrop of the Olympics. The G4S debacle notwithstanding, Britain is not taking any chances and has prepared for every possible worst-case scenario: from placing surface-toair missiles to shoot down any rogue aircraft or drones that might try a 9/11-type of adventure, to posting commandos on speed boats to patrol the Thames. No stone is being left unturned to make the security foolproof. Their fond hopes of blending into the background may be belied but the level of security means that London 2012 will be one of the most heavily-guarded venues ever. Here are some of the elements that will come together to guard Fortress London this summer.

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EYE IN THE SKY E3D Sentry surveillance aircraft, which are capable of scanning 300 nautical miles flying at 30,000 feet, will be used for air and sea electronic surveillance.

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MOBILE BASE HMS Ocean, which is the Royal Navy's largest amphibious assault ship, will berth at Greenwich and act as a launch pad for Lynx helicopters.

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SEEK AND DESTROY Starstreak systems, which shoot missiles at more than three times the speed of sound, will counter threats from low-flying helicopters and aircraft.

PANORAMA

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OR CENTURIES, war was confined to two dimensions breadth and depth. Combat on land and at sea remained limited to these two dimensions. In subsequent days, advances in military technology have contributed to increased mobility and firepower in terms of depth and breadth. Later on, the advent of airpower extended warfare to the third dimension. With the advent of the information revolution, a new dimension — space as the final frontier — promises now to envelope

GEOPOLITICS

PERSPECTIVE

CRUCIAL NEED: Ensuring national security from space; and ensuring security of space assets are essential for India

SECURING THE FINAL

FRONTIER

Coordination among ISRO, DRDO and the three defence services is very important to secure the country’s “Final Frontier”, writes SITAKANTA MISHRA

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ISRO.ORG

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Why the worry? In contemporary times, both civilian and military affairs have been largely electronic-based and net-centric relying heavily on space assets like satellite services. Around 115 countries own a satellite each or share the resources of one. Any tampering in this network can cause mass disruption and disaster. The successful tests of anti-satellite weapons (ASAT) have proved the capability of nations to disrupt the communication network. The worst can be imagined in the military domain as well. Defence establishments the world over use satellites for communication, surveillance, position and timing information, early warning, signal intelligence and meteorological information. With ASAT capability, www.geopolitics.in

one can manipulate the assets in the The space race space at ease. International law prescribes outer space Second, space debris, consisting of as a global common, akin to the high seas. spent satellites and disused associated However, today space is increasingly getsatellite systems, are major threats to ting crowded and militarised though space assets and missions. Till now, only nobody is known to have placed weapons one major incident occurred in 2009 there yet. involving satellites colliding against each other: a functional communication Iridium 33 satellite and Cosmos 2251. If space activities are unchecked, it could lead to a situation where a single satellite failure could cause a cascading failure of many other satellites, according to NASA scientist Donald J. Kessler. Third, the Directed Energy Weapons that project energy at the speed of light, under development by many countries, possess soft-kill capability to blind sensors and other electronic systems of the satellites. For example, low-power lasers can be used to “dazzle” unhardened satellites. China, in particular, has a THE FINAL FRONTIER: Command over space would be dedicated programme for the game-changer in any future war, so a dedicated, developing high- power military space strategy and command is crucial solid state laser and adaptive optics to maintain the quality of laser However, it has been increasingly over large distance, which can be used realised that there might be the migration against satellites. Reportedly, in 2006 of combat operations to orbital space in China used a ground laser to dazzle future. This denotes two interrelated America’s reconnaissance satellite. dimensions: (1) ensuring national securiEvolution in space technology and ty from space; and (2) ensuring security of capability by more number of countries space assets. In this pursuit, placing more poses a serious question on the capabili- satellites in, and weaponisation of, space ty and security of nations’ assets in seems to be inevitable options for states. the space. According to one source, by 2008, there Logically, command over space and were over 900 satellites and of these about security of space assets would be the 150 operational dedicated military satelgame-changer in any future war; and to lites worldwide, with the US operating ensure this, a dedicated military space approximately 107 and Russia approxistrategy and command has become an mately 36 satellites followed by China. imperative mainly to bolster the tactical With the increasing reliance on space edge. From 1985 to 2002, there was a USA assets (524 communications satellites by Space Command, which in 2002 merged 2007) and at the same time increasing with the Strategic Command. The Russ- interest in ASAT capability, a major worry ian Space Force, established in August is how to secure these assets. 1992, has become an independent secThe US proclaims for full-spectrum tion of the Russian military in June 2001. dominance of space through Joint Vision In China, the General Armaments 2020; this has been reinforced when it Department Headquarters probably withdrew from the ABM treaty. The Rumsfunctions as an operational command feld Commission Report on US space responsible for space launch, tracking, security policy has painted the image of a and control of space assets. potential “Space Pearl Harbour”. The PENNWELLBLOGS.COM

the other dimensions of war as a force multiplier and counterforce divider, according to Squadron Leader Ajay Singh. Rapid information and “space technological advancement has reduced the span needed to know, decide, and act with the result that time has been shrinking, while extensity of the battlefield has been expanding. This border of time is the decisive factor of war”. The fourth dimension war or space warfare is a combat that takes place in outer space where the targets are located. It, therefore, includes space-to-space warfare, such as satellites attacking satellites; and ground-to-space warfare, such as attacking satellites from the earth. Technically, it does not include the latter type, where orbital objects attack ground, sea or air targets directly. It also does not include the use of satellites for espionage, surveillance, or military communications. However, space warfare has been viewed in a generic sense to include any conflict that includes space as a theatre of operation, regardless of the place of the target. So far, only a few incidents related to space warfare have occurred in world history, and all are training missions only. In the mid-1980s, a US Air Force pilot in a F15 successfully shot down the P78-1, a communications satellite in a 345-mile (555-km) orbit. In 2007, the People’s Republic of China used a missile system to destroy one of its obsolete satellites and in 2008 the United States similarly destroyed its malfunctioning satellite USA 193. To date, there have been no news of human casualties resulting from conflict in space, nor has any ground target been successfully neutralised from orbit.

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report argued that the US government should pursue the relevant capabilities “to ensure that the President will have the option to deploy weapons in space to deter threats to and, if necessary, defend against attacks on US interests”. Both Russia and China believe that they must respond to this strategic challenge by taking measures to dissuade Washington from pursuing space weapons and missile defences. China especially seems to strive hard for a vibrant military space agenda to overcome its asymmetric space posture vis-avis United States’ space dominance. According to the Sing Tao newspaper, China has developed a “parasitic satellite” to be used in ASAT mode. In the operational domain, the issue of frequency interference and disagreement over frequency allocation between the US GPS, the EU Galileo System, and the Chinese Beidou System is potential of s super power clash. This, in turn, would hamper peaceful use of space leading to politicisation of space culminating in the Vacuum War or Bandwidth War during the decades ahead. Though both the terms are used interchangeably, there remains a fine distinction between the “militarisation of space” and the “weaponisation of space”. There are satellites that could be manoeuvred to act as weapons and disable or destroy the space assets of others. Therefore, according to Colonel Deepak Sharma, “When considering questions of space security, it must be recognised that though space has not yet been specifically weaponised, it is already heavily militarised.” Incidentally, aware of the importance of space and the probable race for its negative use, serious international efforts were made as early as 1960s. The Outer Space Treaty (OST) of 1966 has been widened to include the Astronaut Rescue Agreement (1968), the Liability Convention (1972), the Registration Convention (1979), and the Moon Agreement (1979) addressing various aspects of space exploitation. The OST prescribes the exploration and use of outer space exclusively for peaceful purposes and shall be free for exploration and use by all, not subject to national appropriation. No state shall place nuclear weapons or other weapons of mass destruction in orbit or on celestial bodies or station them in www.geopolitics.in

outer space in any other manner; also, states shall be responsible for national space activities and shall be liable for damage caused by their space objects. However, strategic considerations of nations have sidelined their moral responsibility to maintain the sanctity of many treaty obligations. The US withdrawal from the ABM treaty in 2002, in fact, has stimulated renewed concerns about the possibility of space weaponisation as the withdrawal has removed a longstanding norm prohibiting spacebased conventional weapons. To that extent, the US has always been against global move for any legally-binding treaty banning anti-satellite tests as it views destruction of failed satellites is consistent with the OST.

SUCCESSFUL ASAT WEAPONS TESTS HAVE PROVED THE ABILITY TO DISRUPT COMMUNICATION Implications for India In the recent past, massive intelligence failures suffered by the Indian defence forces that resulted in the Kargil intrusion, and subsequently the 26/11, have raised questions on the utility of India’s space programme for national security. When other space-faring nations are successfully using space technologies for military purposes, why should India remain behind? Moreover, India has about 21 satellites orbiting; the safety of these assets and guarding Indian air space are now of utmost importance. When India is setting out for a global role, the precondition is “enhancement of situational awareness for quick mobility, homogeneous platform for seamless integration of the capabilities of all the three services and ensuring free access to space while denying the adversary the opportunity to use space platforms in the event of a war”. These logically indicate the imperative for India to build a well-structured ‘aerospace

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command’ to extend its strategic reach, while ensuring air sovereignty and defence. Though India has demonstrated its capability to reach outer space, it does not have a dedicated military satellite yet. The armed forces are depending on the dual-use Cartosat-I & II and the CartosatIIA for surveillance and reconnaissance requirements. Experiments on “highpower laser weapons” by Indian scientists also seem several years away. Reportedly, ISRO promises to launch a dedicated military satellite, a naval surveillance and a communications one, in a month’s time. The expected geo-stationary naval satellite with an over-1,000 nautical mile footprint over the Indian Ocean region may equip the Indian Navy to network all its assets through high-speed data-link. Also, the Navy is known to have created a new post of Assistant Chief of Naval Staff (ACNS-CSNCO) at the Naval HQ. Hopefully, this will be followed by ones for the Army and Air Force shortly. Any further delay, however, in the formation of a tri-service Aerospace Command may unnecessarily sideline the oftfelt tri-services coordination on space matters. Former Army Chief General Deepak Kapoor once said, “The Chinese space programme is expanding at an exponentially rapid pace in both offensive and defensive content… There is an imperative requirement to develop joint structures in the Indian armed forces for synergising employment of space assets.” To that extent, for an assured secondstrike nuclear capability that India has proclaimed, satellites are necessary to guide the delivery vehicles. Moreover, India’s “defence operations are increasingly becoming space-based and depend on space-based surveillance, reconnaissance and tracking”. The Indian Army’s defence “Space Vision 2020”, therefore, outlines the need to evolve a strategy for optimum utilisation of space assets for sharpening its combat preparedness. The Indian Air Force (IAF) has been vigorously advocating the need for an aerospace command for several years now. The IAF’s “Defence Space Vision 2020” outlines the need to harness satellite resources in a big way to buttress Indian defence preparedness. Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne has categorically stated that “time has come that we look into the realm of an aerospace command” of August 2012


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tri-service nomenclature to look after the military issues related to space. With this aim, the IAF had gone ahead to establish a “Space SubBranch” at the Air Headquarters in Delhi. Sensing the mood of the Indian defence forces, Defence Minister AK Antony announced, in June 2008, the formation of an Integrated Space Cell under the aegis of the Integrated Defence Services Headquarters as a first step towards a tri-service aerospace command. In fact, a key factor in the creation of the Cell has been viewed to be China’s ASAT test. The objectives of the proposed command would include setting-up of a system to give out missile-launch warnings and monitoring the launch of enemy satellites. The BMD being readied by the DRDO could become an important component of the system. And so are the unmanned drones for surveillance and reconnaissance, Unmanned Combat Air Vehicles (UCAVs), AWACS aircraft, a range of missiles and the constellation of satellites in the space. According to analyst Radhakrishna Rao, “The whole exercise of creating a multi-layered aerospace command should ultimately be aimed at ensuring that in a fast-changing battlefield scenario, all the available tools should be harnessed to stay at the winning edge of the war.” The Integrated Space Cell is responsible for coordinating activities of ISRO, DRDO and the Indian armed forces. On the earth observation front, India has targeted enhanced military capability a process that is distinctly tied to the country’s growing military relationship with Israel. Gradually there has emerged now a consensus in the country to ensure security of own space assets and exploiting the space for national security.

primacy. Second, there should be a series of dedicated defence satellites equipped with specific missions by carrying payloads for a variety of end-uses including surveillance, reconnaissance, imaging, navigation and communication. For that matter, the urgency is to balance the requirements of each of the services. Third, with the objective to increase the number of dedicated satellites, India immediately needs to build multiplelaunch centres and a variety of lunch vehicles equipped for varying orbital missions. Fourth, to bolster the task of building and delivering satellites and launch vehicles, India needs to energise urgently a “space industrial culture” domestically. For this, the agencies concerned need to patronage and promote private industries interested in this sector on a turnkey basis. Fifth, as a responsible mem-

SATELLITE KILLER: It is imperative to build anti-satellite weapons to deny the enemy the use of outer space

Pressing preconditions Though lately, some advancements have been achieved in setting the tone, a few important preconditions for a national tri-service aerospace command need to be addressed in a delicate manner. First, the biggest challenge is to integrate India’s space assets into the defence architecture in a seamless fashion, to prepare for a space war if imposed on India. For that matter, coordination among ISRO, DRDO and three defence services is very important. Particularly, the full civilian nature of ISRO needs a relook but with precaution, as it may hamper all international cooperation it receives. Also, all the three defence services need to come wholeheartedly, and without any competition emphasising their individual

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ber of comity of nations, India needs to propagate vigorously the consequences of space debris generated by China and others in all international forums while adhering to space-control regimes stringently. Meeting all these requirements for a vibrant aerospace command may put enormous burden on national exchequer; but can India afford to overlook, or have an alternative to avert, the threat emerging from space, and insecurity of its space assets? (The author is a Research Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) August 2012


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TOWARDS A NUCLEAR

INSURANCE

The Indian Navy is poised to complete the nuclear-weapon triad, ensuring that the country’s strategic deterrence is sustainable, writes SAURAV JHA

D

URING HIS recent speech at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, London, the Indian Navy’s (IN) Chief of Naval Staff (CNS) Admiral Nirmal Verma made it clear that India would soon complete the much-sought after nuclear triad that is “credible and invulnerable”. He said such a nuclear triad was required in view of India’s ‘no first-use’ nuclear policy. To quote him, “A retaliatory strike capability that is credible and invulnerable is an imperative. The Navy is poised to complete the triad, and our maritime and nuclear doctrines would then be aligned to ensure that our nuclear insurance will come from the sea.” This statement in a way represents the coming together of several connected but distinct threads, including training, technology and of course infrastructure. A credible second-strike capability is the cornerstone of India’s nuclear doctrine and it is widely understood that a truly survivable deterrent has to sooner rather than later consist of a fleet of modern nuclear-powered ballistic missile- carrying submarines (SSBNs). However in the Indian context, a truly potent undersea deterrent will only be achieved when much longer-ranged submarinelaunched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) are fielded by India’s emerging SSBN fleet. Till such time, the underwater leg of

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India’s nuclear triad will remain constrained in terms of deployment possibilities - and vulnerable. The Navy Chief’s assertion has come on the back of reports that India’s first SSBN, INS Arihant, has ventured into sea trials and it may also be taken as a sign that harbour trials of the Arihant, which preceded the sea trials, have gone rather well. A nuclear submarine, is after all, one the most complex pieces of military machinery in existence, and designing and fielding something of this nature is naturally fraught with risks and often constitutes a tortuous process as evidenced by India’s own experience. The Advanced Technology Vessel (ATV) programme, as the project to build an indigenous nuclear submarine was known, took almost four decades to reach fruition, before the launch of the Arihant in 2009. Nevertheless the Indian Navy has now clearly entered the nuclear era with the acquisition of the nuclear attack submarine (SSN) INS Chakra II (from Russia on lease) and the forthcoming commissioning of the INS Arihant, once it completes sea trials. Indeed, to the IN’s credit, it has, over the years, methodically gone about putting in place the various elements required to operate a fleet of nuclear submarines, thereby displaying a certain strategic vision that is quite commendable given the way India’s deterrence

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requirements panned out overtime. In the eighties and early nineties, it was not all that clear as to whether Pakistan would really field a credible nuclear ballistic missile capability and what further support would be forthcoming from China in this sphere. However the Ghauri test of 1998 put paid to all hopes that the Sino-Pak nuclear axis would be truncated. In fact the very opposite was becoming evident and the Chinese on their part were also moving away from the border peace and tranquility treaties signed earlier in the decade. Since then the turn of events, with some brief attempts at rapprochement, have led to a situation where India simply cannot rule out the prospect of a joint attack by China and Pakistan, either conventional or nuclear. The recent missile

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g FOCUS tests carried out by Pakistan in the wake of the Agni-V launch may have been done at China’s behest to send a nuclear message to India. Clearly given India’s no first use doctrine a survivable strategic deterrent with an undersea component is a foremost national priority. In this sense the IN’s foresight at realising that such a day would indeed arrive is noted.

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August 2012

PIB

US NAVY

CREDIBLE DETERRENCE: Submarinelaunched ballistic missiles, such as this Trident II D5, arguably form the most important element of the nuclear triad

One key aspect of the IN prepping itself for a nuclear era was the upgradation of its training programmes and in persuading the government to lease nuclear submarines from Russia, even as the indigenous effort is underway. The lease of the INS Chakra allows the IN to both field a powerful underwater strike element, as well as train a number of crews in nuclear submarine operations. Training on PROPITIOUS MOMENT: Gursharan Kaur, wife of the Prime the INS Chakra, which is Minister Manmohan Singh, breaking the auspicious coconut on an Akula class SSN, the hull of the 6,000-tonne submarine INS Arihant marking its helps prepare crews for launch on July 26, 2009 operations on Arihantclass SSBNs, given the erstwhile Soviet Union, India has made a many common elements between the political decision to let its SSBNs patrol two. The US Navy, for instance, does not far away from Indian shores. In any case, segregate its submariners into SSN and given that the INS Arihant is to be initialSSBN specialists, but cross posts them in ly armed with up to 12 K-15 SLBMs with both classes of submarines. a range of just 750 km, its patrol area is The IN has also put in place the going to be rather close to the enemy support infrastructure required coastline. In fact, to hold at risk China’s for the command and control of eastern seaboard, the INS Arihant will deterrent patrols. It is believed have to operate in the South China Sea. that the United States has helped Now, this is not a particularly settling India set up a very prospect given China’s improved tactical low frequency transanti-submarine warfare (ASW) capabilimitter (VLF) someties. In the case of Pakistan also, the where along the eastPakistani Navy’s Agosta class submarine ern coast of India to increases the risk of a deterrence patrol facilitate very long disin the northern Arabian Sea being tance communication detected. This need to operate close to with submerged subenemy waters means that the INS Arimarines. Some sources hant will have to be able to shake off say that an extremely low trails if they arise and dive deep to depth frequency (ELF) transmitlevels were acoustic detection becomes ter which will allow the IN difficult. to send messages even furThese requirements are precisely ther away and at greater why the INS Arihant’s design, and that depths, is also under construcof the two other boats in its class that tion. Of course, the data rates are under construction, is like that of an for an ELF transmitter are SSN (which are fast and can dive deep) lower than that of one which with a small missile compartment caroperates in the VLF range and rying four launch tubes. The INS Arionly very short messages are hant, at 6000 tonnes with a 85 MW sent using this facility. But these (thermal) reactor, is rather like an SSN short messages are integral to and apparently is a smaller derivate of the Nuclear Command Authority the Akula Class. The Arihant is also likein determining the alert status of ly to boast the very best in Indian sonar the Arihant when it is out on detertechnology, which, according the IN is rence patrols. state-of-the-art. The setting-up of VLF and possibly Nevertheless, despite these features, ELF facilities indicates, that unlike the


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DPR/MOD

TRINITY OF DESTRUCTION A NUCLEAR triad refers to a nuclear arsenal which consists of three components: traditionally strategic bombers, ballistic missiles and submarinelaunched missiles, deliverable from land, air and sea. The purpose of having a three-branched nuclear capability is to significantly reduce the possibility that an enemy could destroy all of a nation’s nuclear forces in a first-strike attack; this, in turn, ensures a credible threat of a second strike, which is best done from under the sea where the nuclear weapons can be kept safely, thus evading the enemy’s first strike. This is all the more significant for India’s nuclear doctrine that says that the country will not be the first to use nuclear weapons but will retaliate fiercely if attacked with nuclear weapons. To put it differently, the triad ensures a credible threat of a retaliatory strike, and therefore increases a nation’s nuclear deterrence. At present, India has an arsenal of Agni II and Agni III ballistic missiles and BrahMos supersonic cruise missiles as part of the land component of the triad. The air component includes nuclear-capable fighter aircraft such as the Dassault Mirage 2000H, Sukhoi Su30 MKI and MIG-29 that can deliver the nuclear weapons. With induction of the Arihant submarine, India will become the fourth country in the world to possess a fully-fledged nuclear triad after the United States, Russia and China.

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LEARNING CURVE: The Indian Navy hopes to gain valuable experience in the operation of nuclear submarines with the INS Chakra II, which is an Akula II-type attack submarine on lease from Russia

an Indian SSBN just off the coast of China does not grant an invulnerable deterrent. A truly potent undersea deterrent will require the early induction of a much longer-ranged submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) than the K-15. DRDO’s follow on to the K-15, the K-4 with its 3500 km range, is therefore the need of the hour. There are indications that the K-4 might be entering the flight test phase this year, with a possibly induction date in 2013-14. One would note that the INS Arihant can carry up to four K-4s in its present configuration. The K-4’s range will allow Indian SSBNs to patrol in the deep waters of Bay of Bengal and hold at risk most important Chinese targets. It may be noted that the Chinese, not to speak of the Pakistanis, simply do not have the means to detect SSBNs in the open ocean and over large patrol areas. While research on satellitebased methods to detect the surface wake left by submerged submarines is being pursued by the Chinese, in no way does it guarantee the successful tracking of SSBNs, even if the research leads somewhere. Because strategic ASW (Anti-Submarine warfare) in the Indian Ocean will require the Chinese to set up a veritable net in the area with massive deployment of aerial

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and naval sensors that will work in conjunction with any notional satellitebased non-acoustic submarine detection method. Such a net is never going to be in the realm of possibility even with all the talk of the so-called string of pearls (naval facilities offered to China by Indian neighbours). Instead, given the IN’s own growing footprint in the Indian Ocean and the ongoing expansion of the Andaman and Nicobar Command (ANC), one can easily envisage the IN setting up an effective ASW bastion to protect its future SSBNs carrying the K-4 on deterrent patrol. K-4armed SSBNs will make the construction of the submarine cave base in Rambili near Vishakapatnam a truly worthwhile investment. This base will allow Indian nuclear submarines to enter deep water very quickly in a completely submerged transit. The arrival of the K-4 and possibly an even longer range K-X will also provide Indian submarine designers to envisage bigger SSBNs carrying between 12 and 16 strategic SLBMs. Given that these boats will be able to patrol far away from enemy ASW elements, their design could actually incorporate cost-saving measures in materials and propulsion, since they would not need to undertake the kind of evasive manoeuvres, that say, the Arihant class might have to given their initial patrol areas with the K-15. August 2012


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NEW AGE DORNIER A look at the innovations on the Do 228 NG

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NORDIC FURY Saab's air defence missiles for India

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FARNBOROUGH SNIPPETS ITT EXELIS, EADS JV ITT Exelis, EADS North America and Cassidian, the defence and security division of EADS, announced a partnership to provide enhanced electronic warfare solutions. One of their first joint projects is expected to be a missile approach warning solution for the US Air National Guard. “This agreement will help our companies, each with complementary electronic warfare systems grow in new markets,” said Rich Sorelle, acting president of the Exelis Electronic Systems division. “Cassidian will bring its distinctive products to the US with partners that understand the American defence market, and Exelis will benefit from Cassidian's knowledge of European defense platforms, as well as its marketing reach in Europe, Asia and Africa.”

SUBDUED, BUT BUSINESS AS USUAL With the total worth of deals pegged at $72 billion, Farnborough 2012 was more successful than its last edition when the deals totalled a collective $47 billion for about 835 aircraft, but nowhere as booming as the Paris Air Show last year www.geopolitics.in

EMBRAER, BOEING COLLABORATE

ny good news for India from Farnborough 2012? Plenty! Foremost is the fact that the subcontinent continues to be a destination of choice for major manufacturers (contractors if you would like to use the American and European euphemism). Aerospace and defence companies are increasingly choosing India, according to research

Embraer of Brazil and Boeing of the United States had their own announcement — a deal to enhance collaboration to add capabilities to Embraer’s A-29 Super Tucano through new weapons integration developments. The A-29 Super Tucano is a single-engine, turboprop aircraft for both training and close air support combat missions. About nine countries in addition to Brazil are either flying the aircraft or have them on order. “This new capability will take advantage of the versatility of the Super Tucano and will benefit our campaign in the United States,” said Luiz Carlos Aguiar, president of Embraer Defesa & Seguranca. “With more than eight years in service and more than 160 aircraft delivered, the Super Tucano is a proven platform.”

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g Boeing P-8I passes flight testing BOEING

tion as we move closer to P-8I aircraft joining the Indian Navy.” The second P-8I aircraft for the Indian Navy completed its initial flight on July 12, taking off from Renton Field and landing two hours and 14 minutes later at Boeing Field in Seattle. During the flight, Boeing test pilots performed airborne systems checks and took the P-8I to a maximum altitude of 41,000 feet before landing. Boeing will begin mission systems installation and checkout work on the aircraft in the coming weeks. The P-8I is one of eight long-range maritime reconnaissance and antiBOEING

BOEING’S FIRST P-8I aircraft for the Indian Navy began its official flight test programme in early July and achieved its test objectives. During the coming months, Boeing test pilots will put the P-8I, a nextgeneration 737-800 derivative, through its paces over a US Navy test range west of Neah Bay, Washington and a joint US/Canadian test range in the Strait of Georgia. On the occasion, Rear Admiral DM Sudan, Assistant Chief of Naval Staff (Air), Indian Navy said: “This is an important milestone for the programme and sets the stage for operational testing and weapons certifica-

Mega transport tender approved

Agilent launches state-of-the-art products LEADING TEST and measurement company Agilent Technologies launched five state-of-the-art products in early July. These test and measurement products are expected to play a significant role in the strategic areas such as aerospace and defence. Speaking on the occasion, Sudhir Tangri, Country Manager, Agilent Technologies, Electronics Measurement Group, said: “Agilent Technologies has been continuously offering innovative test and measurement products worldwide to address the growing needs of both R&D and field requirements that encompasses subsegments such as radar, satellites, military communication and surveillance, to name a few. India is a growing market and we are quite positive about increasing our engagement levels across sectors.” AGILENT

US NAVY

A PROJECT to acquire 56 transport aircraft worth over `12,000-crore has been cleared by the Defence Ministry. The new aircraft will replace the Indian Air Force's fleet of ageing Avro aircraft. Significantly, the HAL will not be tasked with this tender as is said to be overburdened with projects ranging from production of Sukhoi-30MKIs and upgrades of MiG-29s and Mirage-2000s. In the global tender the first 16 aircraft will be procured off-theshelf in “a flyaway condition” from the selected foreign vendor and the next 16 planes will have to have at least 30 per cent indigenous components, with the figure going up to 60 per cent for the last 24. This is the first time that the Defence Ministry is looking for vendors other than HAL.

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submarine warfare aircraft Boeing is building for India as part of a contract awarded in January 2009. This aircraft will boost Indian Navy’s maritime capability. The Indian Navy’s maritime challenges require a long range, modern, reconnaissance aircraft to check numerous threats that are arising in the Indian Ocean Region. P-8I flight and weapons testing follows on the heels of similar testing for the US Navy’s P-8A Poseidon. P-8I is a variant of the Poseidon. The stores the P-8I will carry will have the identical shape and size of real weapons, including the Harpoon anti-ship missile, depth bombs and torpedoes.

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g India, US close to inking over $600 mn jet deal

INDIA IS planning to start its much-awaited next line of stealth frigates under Project 17A. The Project-17 has come to an end with commissioning of INS Shayadri, the last of the three frigates. The project will be for construction of seven advanced stealth frigates for `50,000 crore. The project will be shared between Mazagon Docks (MDL) at Mumbai and Garden Reach

Shipbuilders and Engineers (GRSE) at Kolkata, which has gone major technology upgrades recently. The contract negotiation committee of the Ministry of Defence is negotiating the finer points of the contract with the shipyards. The next seven frigates will be longer, broader, faster and stealthier with operational range of 5000 nautical miles with a speed of 18 knots per hour. The ships will be equipped with flush deck to increase the stealthiness of the ship.

`5,236 cr cleared for defence cable project THE GOVERNMENT has decided to lay down an alternate cable network for defence communication called the Defence Optical Fibre Cable network. The decision was taken by the Cabinet Committee on Infrastructure. Earlier, the government had sanctioned approximately `8100 crore for the same project. This project has been approved to allow the armed forces to release additional

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spectrum for the mobile services. They are expected to release 55 Mhz of spectrum, which will be allotted to additional players in the cellular market. The project will be implemented by Bharat Sanchar Nigam Ltd (BSNL) and is for all the three services. BSNL is expected to finish this project in 36 months. The additional `5000 for the project will mitigate the cost escalation of the project.

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US NAVY

PRO NAVY

India finalising mega stealth frigates’ project

AFTER TWO years of negotiations on price and technology transfer, the contract has been finalised for 99 jets to power Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas MKII. India selected the GE 414 engine over the Eurojet 2000 two years back to power the next version of LCA, which is expected to be ready for operation in 2014-15. At present, the LCA is being powered by GE 404. As the LCA MK II is being designed keeping in mind better flight envelopes and weapon-carrying capacity, the aircraft would require more powerful engines. The deal will be for 99 engines but it is expected to reach somewhere around 200 as the indigenous Kaveri engine is nowhere close to completion. The deal for 99 engines is expected to be worth around $600 million.

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g Laser powers Lockheed Martin’s Stalker UAS for 48 hours LOCKHEED MARTIN and LaserMotive, a privately-held research and development company specialising in laser power beaming for commercial applications, recently demonstrated the capabilities of a laser power system to extend the Stalker Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) flight’s time to more than 48 hours. This increase in flight duration represents an improvement of 2,400 per cent. The Stalker is a small, silent UAS used by Special Operations Forces

since 2006 to perform intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions. Tom Koonce, Lockheed Martin Skunk Works Stalker Programme Manager, said, “We’re pleased with the results of this test. Laser power holds real promise in extending the capabilities of Stalker. A ground-to-air recharging system like this allows us to provide practically unlimited flight endurance to extend and expand the mission profiles that the Stalker vehicle can fulfill.”

Stalker was modified for the indoor flight test to incorporate LaserMotive’s proprietary system that makes it possible to wirelessly transfer energy over long distances using laser light to provide a continual source of power to the UAS. At the conclusion of the flight test, held in a wind tunnel, the battery on the Stalker UAS had more energy stored than it did at the beginning of the test. The test was concluded only because the flight had already surpassed the initial endurance goals set by the team. LOCKHEED MARTIN

Pratt & Whitney delivers first engines for Boeing C-17s to India Samtel announces change

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Indian Air Force’s C-17 programme. We look forward to a continued partnership with India as we complete the remaining F117 engines to fulfill this contract.” The F117-PW-100 is

F117/PW2037 has proven itself as a dependable engine. Pratt & Whitney’s ongoing investment in product improvements has enabled the engine to continuously surpass established goals for time on wing, in-flight shut downs and support-turnaround time. Worldwide, Boeing has delivered 244 C-17s with F117 engines. 28 of these aircraft have been sold to international customers including United Kingdom’s Royal Air Force, the Qatar Emiri Air Force, the Royal Canadian Air Force, the Royal Australian Air Force, the 12member Strategic Airlift Capability initiative of NATO. The US Air Force operates 216 C-17s. PRATT & WHITNEY

PRATT & WHITNEY has delivered the first four F117 engines to Boeing for the Indian Air Force’s fleet of Boeing C-17 Globemaster III transport aircraft. The Ministry of Defence had signed a Letter of Offer and Acceptance (LOA) with the US government in 2011 to acquire 10 C-17s. India will take delivery of its first C-17s in mid-2013. Four F117s provide exclusive power for the C-17 Globemaster III, one of the world’s most powerful heavy airlifters. Bev Deachin, Vice President, Military Programs and Customer Support, Pratt & Whitney, said, “Pratt & Whitney is pleased to deliver the first four F117 engines for the

the sister engine of PW2040 commercial engine, which powers the Boeing 757. With more than 50 million hours of proven military and commercial use, the

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of name

SAMTEL DISPLAY Systems Ltd, one of India’s premier organisations in the domain of avionics and defence has announced change of its name to ‘Samtel Avionics & Defence Systems Ltd.’ effective immediately. The new name aligns with the company’s evolving business focus as it grows into new domains of opto-electronics and built-to-print, besides displays for cockpits and military applications. The Samtel-HAL JV has the unique distinction of being the first public-private partnership in the defence avionics space in India to indigenously design, qualify and serial produce multifunction displays that are currently flying on Su30 MKI. On the other hand, the Samtel-Thales JV is aimed at manufacturing indigenous HelmetMounted Sight and Display Systems, Infra Red Search and Track, and modern Avionics Systems.

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g DCNS and SEC Industries achieve milestone in Scorpene programme SEC INDUSTRIES and DCNS recently inaugurated new workshop facilities and delivered cofferdam doors coamings for the Scorpene submarines. The equipment has already undergone successful Factory Acceptance Tests. Minister of State for Defence M M Pallam Raju inaugurated the facilities in the presence of François Richier, the French Ambassador to India. The inauguration was attended by senior dignitaries and officials. In September 2011, DCNS India signed a contract with SEC Industries for the manufacture of high technological equipment for the Scorpene submarines. A second contract was signed in May 2012 for additional items. These contracts cover an extensive Transfer of Technology (TOT). The contract is part of the indigenisation programme implemented by DCNS India under the Mazagon Purchased Materials (MPM) contracts. DCNS has helped SEC industries in building new industrial workshops and in delivering cofferdam coamings for Scorpene submarines. These are support items being provided to help Indian industry manufacture indigenous products and equipment for the Scorpene programme and provide transfer of technology for the same. The 1500 sqm facility is integrated with modern capabilities for

various manufacturing activities such as shot blasting, welding and painting. D Vidyasagar, Managing Director of SEC Industries, said: “We are happy to be part of the on-going indigenisation of the P75 programme. With the know-how, technical assistance and constant support provided by DCNS, we are happy to have developed these new facilities and delivered some major indigenous equipments for the Scorpene submarines.” Bernard Planchais, Chief Operating Officer of DCNS, mentioned: “We started our technology transfers with MDL to help them achieve a degree of accuracy and quality at par with other major worldwide shipyards as far as pressure hull manufacturing is concerned. We are now concentrating our efforts to help MDL integrate equipment inside the submarines and assist our industrial partners to deliver in a timely manner to MDL the various indigenised equipment of the Scorpenes. DCNS wishes to enlarge its footprint in India, we are developing win-win industrial partnerships for the long-term benefits of our customers.” Bernard Buisson, Managing Director of DCNS India, said, “The contract with SEC is part of the indigenisation programme implemented

by DCNS India under the P75 Mazagon Purchased Materials (MPM) contracts. Through this commitment to manufacture in India, we are developing strong industrial partnerships and capabilities for the P75 and future programmes.”

Delivery of key equipment for Indian Scorpenes Bernard Buisson explained, “The building of workshop facilities and successful delivery of cofferdam doors coamings for Scorpene submarines is a testimonial to our constant efforts towards indigenisation of equipments for Scorpene submarine programme through successfully implemented TOTs.” Buisson added, “The Factory Acceptance Test (FAT) for the first locally-made cofferdam doors coamings was successfully performed at SEC Industries in June. The indigenised equipment was made as per the contractual quality requirements, and their delivery to our customer MDL ahead of schedule.” The cofferdam doors and coamings are key safety components of the submarine. The cofferdam itself is a watertight enclosure; in case of any accidents, it can be used to isolate the flooded submarine part and proceed to the crew evacuation. DCNS

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VIEWPOINT

CREATING A 21ST CENTURY

INDUSTRY Indian arms production can come of age by embracing techno-globalisation and having secure partners, argues AMIT GUPTA

T

HE INDIAN arms industry has a mixed record of meeting the requirements of the Indian armed forces. The industry's attempts to build advanced weapons systems have met with limited success as witnessed by the checkered histories of the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft and the Arjun main battle tank — neither of which has been fully accepted by the Services. Worse, the industry has been unable to provide the basic weapons that are needed by any fighting force for both internal and external security — for example, rifles, small arms, ammunition, and night-vision equipment. Thus, during the Kargil conflict, the Indian armed forces ran out of howitzer and mortar shells and had to depend on the goodwill of Israel to fill the gap. Given the investment the Indian government has made in the arms industry, such a return is unacceptable. What needs to be done is to create a realistic strategy that lowers the need for imports, preserves a genuine defense industry, and creates the building blocks for future technological advancement. How does one achieve these goals? To do so, three major pathologies have to be reversed.

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#1: Technologically feasible vs Technologically ambitious The Indian arms industry has sought to build technologically-ambitious weapons systems rather than technologically-feasible ones. Thus in the 1950s, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) agreed to develop a supersonic combat aircraft — the HF-24 Marut — when the country lacked the scientific background and the basic industries to bring such a project to fruition. At that time, the Air Force wanted an aircraft that was comparable to those manufactured in the West. Further, the unwillingness of a cash-strapped Indian government to pay for a true supersonic engine led to the aircraft project being condemned to failure. In the 1980s, the government gave the go-ahead for the Arjun tank and the Tejas LCA. Both projects have been marked by inordinate delays, cost overruns, interference from the end-user that led to changes in the programme and the eventual development of a product that neither the Indian Army, nor the Indian Air Force has shown enthusiasm about — both services reluctantly agreeing to accept these weapons systems into service.

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In contrast, the Chinese military industry, which faced similar technological and manpower issues as the Indian arms industry, sought at the outset, to build what was feasible rather than what would impress the rest of the world. Chinese weapons designers recognised that they could not play technological catch-up with the rest of the world, so they focused on building what was feasible — which in their case were weapons systems such as the Soviet MiG-17 and MiG-19. The Chinese built over 3000 MiG-19s (the Chinese designation being the J-6) and exported them to countries as varied as North Korea, Pakistan, Albania and Zambia. The August 2012


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g VIEWPOINT ability to produce such a large number of aircraft allowed China to lay a solid foundation for an aeronautics industry. The Chinese aircraft industry has gone on to develop the J-10 and the FJ-17 and this has also led to the ambitious fifth-generation J-20 fighter project. In contrast, India remains locked in the patterns of the 1960s where it licence produces the Sukhoi-30 MKI and continues to try and develop planes that may never be fully integrated into the IAF's inventory. #2: Unable to make the rudimentary equipment India's threat environment requires a

series of weapons that range from advanced weaponry that are meant to combat state actors to basic weapons that are used for combating internal challenges or for training and utility purposes. Perhaps the most humiliating sight from the November 26, 2008 Mumbai terror attack was the shootout in the Chhattrapati Shivaji Railway Station where a terrorist armed with an AK-47 was shooting at an Indian police officer who fired back with a vintage bolt action rifle. The plans for building rudimentary equipment that fulfill the basic requirements of the armed forces and sets the basis for a defence industry are not new.

In the late 1940s, British defence scientist PMS Blackett was invited by the Indian government to write a report on how to create a defence science base in India. Blackett recommended that India should not seek to manufacture advanced technology weapons but, instead, develop non-competitive systems that would not become obsolescent and meet India's basic requirements — thus India should try to build anti-aircraft guns, transport vehicles and set the ground for an aircraft industry by designing and developing trainer aircraft. Blackett's advice was only partially followed and the Indian taxpayer has borne the burden of bad choices. Had

VALIANT SURVIVOR: The protracted development programme of the Arjun main battle tank has been truly epic

DRDO

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the Indian arms industry invested in making ammunition, small arms, trainer aircraft, and transport planes, not only would the Indian exchequer have saved thousands of crores of rupees, but India would have had a ready supply of equipment to meet its everyday requirements. The case of trainer aircraft is instructive here. Instead of building an Advanced Jet Trainer (AJT) and a basic trainer aircraft, the Indian government has had to spend billions of dollars on importing the BAE Systems Hawk AJT and the Swiss Pilatus PC-7II to fulfil the training requirements of the young cadets. In the 50 years since the development of the Kiran jet trainer, HAL has not been able to manufacture a basic jet to train new cadets. The Sitara intermediate jet trainer and the HTT-40 basic trainer have run into delays and developmental problems. Yet, such planes are neither technologically-advanced nor in danger of becoming obsolescent. Had a focused developmental programme taken place, India would not have been wasting money on imports of basic systems and the defence science base would have been gainfully employed. In this context, the fate of the Tejas LCA has to be discussed. With the Rafale potentially entering service with the IAF, provided the financial arrangements are to the satisfaction of both governments, the continued purchase of more Sukhoi 30MKIs from Russia, and the Indian investment in the Russian Fifth-Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) programme, the question that emerges is: Is there a need for the Tejas? The Tejas still has engine issues and its avionics package cannot match that of contemporary aircraft. Doubts remain whether the plane will see frontline service with the Indian Air Force and the naval version is still in the early stages of development. Having said that, the Tejas can fly at supersonic speeds and carry a weapons payload. Moreover, the Indian taxpayer has wasted thousands of crores www.geopolitics.in

SIGHT FOR SORE EYES: Few combat aircraft programmes can compare to the long drawn-out development cycle of the Tejas

on the development of the aircraft. Shutting down the programme, therefore, would be a blow to the Indian arms industry and a waste of money. A good alternative may be to redesignate the Tejas as an Advanced Attack Trainer, i.e. as an aircraft that can be used to train pilots in supersonic flights and as a second tier aircraft for a range of combat missions. This would permit the aircraft to be made in sufficient numbers and remove any doubts about any perceived technological obsolescence. #3: Privatisation is a dirty word The Indian government's arcane and obsolete investment laws make Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the arms industry — or, in any industry for that matter — an arduous and painful process. At present, the government permits up to 26 per cent FDI in the arms industry — something that makes foreign investors state that it is not even worth the effort. Yet it is only through foreign investment and collaboration that there can be meaningful technology transfers and the ability to create a truly competitive defence industry. The Indian arms industry has had some success in this area where it has entered joint projects like the BrahMos missile with Russia, but a lot more collaboration is required to bring about the successful completion of the ongoing projects and the successful development of futuristic ones. Such projects require getting in at the start of the developmental process rather than that at a late stage, as in the case of the FGFA with Russia, where critics remain dubious about the value to India's arms industry and defence science base of such programmes.

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Success happens when you cannot rely on others One argument that I have made elsewhere is that India's most successful weapons programmes — like it's nuclear and missile programmes — have come about when it did not have the option of external suppliers who offered state-ofthe-art weaponry. In the nuclear and missile cases, Western embargos ensured that India did not make an off-the-shelf purchase (which the armed forces and politicians for various reasons find desirable) but, instead, had to rely on what could be produced within the country. The result has been a successful nuclear weapons programme and a range of missiles that have gone towards making Indian nuclear deterrent more credible. Further, in the case of the Arihant nuclear submarine, the Indian government put aside feelings of technonationalism and, instead, went for techno-globalisation — in that it sought Russian assistance in the development of the boat's nuclear reactor. To sum up, the arms industry needs to focus on making weaponry that will not become obsolescent and help counter the fundamental challenges to internal and external security. This will help build a truly viable defence science capability and save the exchequer significant amounts of money. As far as more ambitious programmes are concerned, the days of techno-nationalism that drove programmes such as the Marut, Tejas, and Arjun, are over. Instead, the Indian government has to embrace techno-globalisation and secure partners who can not only help it develop advanced weapons systems, but also bring them to fruition. (The author is an Associate Professor in the Department of International Security Studies at the United States Air Force Air War College, Maxwell AFB, Alabama. The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the United States Air Force or the Department of Defense) August 2012



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DORNIER NG: READY FOR THE FUTURE Dornier 228 has been a versatile aircraft in the small aircraft category. Having enjoyed customer confidence since the late Seventies across the globe, RUAG has come up with a newer version of this aircraft to suit the changing needs, reports ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

L

AST JUNE, the Defence Acquisition Council of Ministry of Defence (MoD) decided to procure 14 Dornier aircraft from Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the Indian Air Force (IAF). HAL is the sole manufacturer of these aircraft in the world and 100 of these aircraft built by HAL are flying India. All in all around 250 Dornier 228 aircraft are still in use across the globe both in civil and military domains. Until 1998, 240 aircraft were built at the Oberpfaffenhofen plant in Germany, of which around 150 aircraft are still in use. Since 1986, 100 Dornier 228 aircraft have been built under licence by

www.geopolitics.in

Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) in Kanpur exclusively for the Indian market.

RUAG IS PLANNING TO MANUFACTURE BETWEEN 8 TO 12 AIRCRAFT PER YEAR

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The licence for Dornier 228 was owned by the Fairchild Dornier till 2002 when the company met with insolvency after financial difficulties. Dornier 228 licence was bought by the RUAG Aerospace Services in 2002. The new generation aircraft is being built by RUAG at the same Oberpfaffenhofen site where it was developed by its original manufacturer. Based on inquiries by customers and inquiries from the market, a project was initiated by RUAG in 2008 which included a survey on the potential resumption of aircraft production. After a thorough one-year analysis of customer requirements as well as the technical and August 2012


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“DORNIER 228 NG HAS RECEIVED A WARM WELCOME� Klaus-Peter Leinauer, VP Sales & Marketing at RUAG Aerospace Services, spoke briefly about their new aircraft and its market

DORNIER

How has the market response been to the new aircraft? The worldwide aviation community, airlines and special mission operators, governments, sensor integrators and OEMs have given us a warm welcome and appreciated the appearance of a new-born Dornier 228 NG.

NEW-BORN DORNIER: The Dornier 228 NG incorporates more than 350 improvements and innovations over its predecessor

economic conditions prevalent in the market, the project team came to the conclusion that an appropriate market existed for the aircraft. The new version called Dornier 228 NG has retained the versatility and design feature but has better performance. By the time the production stopped, the Dornier 228 had developed into the Dornier 228-212 version, and was being built for both civil and military purposes. Main areas of use are the classical passenger and cargo transport tasks, in particular in countries with poorly-developed air traffic infrastructure and difficult takeoff and landing conditions. On the other hand, it is also used for maritime, coast, border, air and environment control tasks, as well as for research purposes. A prerequisite for this Dornier 228 NG project was the need for modernisation in some areas and to keep the air design such that a marketable price could be achieved. This led to the cooperation with HAL as the manufacturer of the entire structural components like fuselage, wing and tail unit. Final assembly www.geopolitics.in

customised outfitting and delivery of the aircraft is done at Oberpfaffenhofen near Munich. Dornier wing design The history of the Dornier 228 aircraft began in the late Seventies with the development of a new aircraft wing by the then Dornier-Werke, a German aircraft manufacturer. This New Technology Wing (NTW ) featured not only a low-drag but also a highlift profile. Its manufacturing employed new production techniques which reduced the production costs. This new wing was tested for the first time in 1978 when a Dornier 28 (Do28) aircraft was modified for this purpose. For the successful marketing of the NTW, Dornier started developing a new fuselage based on the Do28. Two versions with 15 and 19 seats were planned. It made its first flight in 1981 and the new aircraft was named Dornier 228-100 with deliveries made to the customers within a year.

What is your sales target in the foreseeable future? How many major countries / navies have shown interest? The sales targets are 8-12 aircraft per year. All countries around the world have shown interest in the Dornier 228 NG e.g. maritime patrol, border patrol and many other missions have been analysed in detail. The interest in our aircraft as a sensor platform has exceeded our expectations by far. What is the status of the aircraft manufacturing schedule? What about the certification? The series production in the German facilities is in full swing: the EASA certification is dated 2010 and the FAA certificate is well on its way as scheduled. Have you given any presentation to Indian forces on your upgraded Dornier? The Indian forces have received detailed presentation about the new Dornier 228 NG and they are aware about the glass cockpit, the new five-bladed propeller and all other modifications. Do you have any plan to get into any commercial relationship with HAL for this aircraft? We are currently in discussion with HAL. And we are open for any cooperation. Do you have any plan to get into any commercial relationship with HAL for this aircraft? We are currently in discussion with HAL. And we are open for any co-operation.

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August 2012


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TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS

VERSIONS WITH SPL EQUIPMENT

More than 350 improvements e.g. glass-cockpit, 5-bladed propellers, TPE 331-10 engines Low direct operational costs, low break-even point Combination of high-cruise speed, long range and high payload Operation from short and unpaved runways, in hot climate and at high altitude Rugged airframe: service life of 53,500 flights High dispatch reliability allowing high utilisation rates Flight Management System (FMS) Emergency Locator Transmitter Weather Radar (Option) Glass cockpit

Special mission aircraft Side Looking Airborne Radar (SLAR) 360° Surveillance Radar Forward Looking Infrared (FLIR) Satellite Communication Ergonomic Operator Station Enlarged Fuel Tanks IR / UV Sensor Equipment

Performance

Commuter and utility aircraft Comfortable space for up to 19 passengers and two crew members Special roller door for loading and unloading of freight Devices for securing the cargo in its spacious hold Operations in areas with limited airport infrastructure De-Icing System Airborne Collision Avoidance System

Take-off Distance Take-off Distance to 50 ft (STOL) Landing Distance Max. Cruise Speed Range

: : : : :

Military aircraft / MedEvac General military transportation duties or for paradropping Up to two metric tonnes of cargo 20 troopers Room for up to six stretchers Nine foldable seats

2,600 ft 1.686 ft 1,480 ft 433 km/h 833 km DORNIER

Technology upgrade One of the prime areas of focus for the latest version is the cockpit. The customers demanded the use of state-ofthe-art digital avionics in the aircraft cockpit. Much of the development work required for this was done in 2007 for a separate project in which two Dornier 228 aircraft were converted into advanced coast and maritime surveillance aircraft for the Netherlands Coast Guard. The other significant change is the replacement of the four-blade Hartzell propeller to a five-blade propeller www.geopolitics.in

engine, the TPE331-10 from Honeywell. The two five-blade propellers are 30 kg lighter and 20 cm smaller in diameter and made of composite materials. The smaller propeller blades make it more efficient in landing on unpaved runways. The propeller reduces noise both within and outside the aircraft. Also, with the Honeywell engine, flight performances have improved particularly during the takeoff and climbing phases. In 2010, all technical improvements were approved by European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA), under a Major Change Approval. In 2010, RUAG delivered the first Dornier 228 New Generation to launch customers in Japan and Norway. The third aircraft was delivered to the German Navy at the end of 2011.

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Currently, the order backlog for the Dornier 228 New Generation is four aircraft, of which two aircraft will be delivered to the Bangladesh Navy to be based at Chittagong. The aircraft will be for the maritime reconnaissance role and they are fitted with 360 degree radar with range up to 200 nautical miles. This delivery is expected to be made in 2013. RUAG is planning to manufacture between 8 and 12 aircraft per year, depending on the number of orders and the version ordered. “An aircraft equipped for special missions is always more complex than a passenger version”, says Klaus-Peter Leinauer, Vice President Sales and Marketing at RUAG Aerospace Services. HAL and RUAG signed a long-term agreement in 2008 according to which HAL will manufacture structural components for the NG aircraft, which include fuselage, wing and empennage. HAL-manufactured components will make up to 80 per cent of the NG's aero structure. The first shipment of the components was delivered to RUAG by HAL in early 2009. August 2012


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SAAB’S AIR DEFENCE SOLUTIONS FOR INDIA

I

N TODAY’S warfare, air defence plays a key role in defending the air space and ground assets scattered in the warfront. Every asset in the war theatre needs some sort of air defence for active protection against the enemy’s aircraft. Indian air defence assets are mostly of Soviet vintage and need urgent replacement. In fact, former Army Chief VK Singh raised the issue in his letter to the Prime Minister where he

mentioned that 97 per cent of India’s air defence assets were obsolete. It is well known that the Army air defence is not in sync with the modern air threats, such as drones, cruise missiles and fourth-generation aircraft, which fly faster and have far more manoeuvrability than the legacy airdefence missile therefore making interception very difficult. Indian armed forces have been making efforts to

SAAB

Saab, one of the world’s top defence contractors, is pitching its missiles for the Indian armed forces’ air defence requirements. Geopolitics spoke with MATS JOHANSSON of Saab on its offerings to India

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August 2012


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from their own air space and this requires long-range interception capability. With stealthier designs of modern aircraft and UAVs, the targets are getting smaller. Talking about the target acquisition challenges faced by weapon developers he said, “Over the years we are seeing the targets are getting smaller and the interception range is getting larger.” Stressing on the importance of communication in air-defence systems Johansson said that the Saab air-defence system had a very robust communication system. It has multiple media, bidirec-

y

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BAMSE MISSILE Range Effective altitude coverage Guidance

: : :

Missile commands Warhead

: :

Fuze Target types

: :

Ready-to-fire missiles on MCC

:

Out to 20 km 15,000 m Automatic Command to Line of Sight (ACLOS) Transmitted by FCR Fragmentation and shaped charge Proximity and impact fuze Fighters, bombers and trans port aircraft combat and transport helicopters, standoff weapons and guided bombs Six missiles

y y y y y y y

24-hour, all-weather capability in ECM environment Long-range/high-altitude surveillance Large protected volume to high altitude Accurate 3D target designation from radar Optimised C4I Network function Very short reaction and engagement times All missiles reloaded in less than 5 min (1 missile reloaded in 1 min) Long serviceable life with low life-cycle cost, with a missile life exceeding 30 years

SAAB

upgrade air-defence assets for very long and have started inducting DRDO-developed Akash medium-range surface-toair missiles to boost surface-to-air interception capability. Mats Johansson of Saab spoke to Geopolitics regarding various options that his company has for India in the arena of air defence. When asked about the ongoing trials of the Very Short Range Air Defence Missiles (VSHORAD) in which Saab is also participating he said: “Trials are going fine for us. It is going according to the schedule. We are happy and so far it is going very well. The system has done very well in hot trials. Some of our systems have been working in the hot environment in other parts of the world.” The Ministry of Defense is currently testing the VSHORAD systems for triservice air-defence requirements. According to reports, around 5000 units are expected. The contetendors in the fray are Saab with its RBS-70 NG, Rosoboron Export with the IGLA (currently operational with the Army), South Korea’s LIG Nex1 Chiron, and the European missile major MBDA with the Mistral. The user field trials are being conducted in the Thar Desert and in winter the cold trials will be conducted at Ladakh. The tender has the potential to go up to 15,000 units. India is currently using the Soviet-made 70’s vintage Igla shoulder fire, surface-to-air missiles which are considered to be ineffective against the modern aircraft. Johansson said that Sweden was also upgrading its legacy air-defences to make them capable of being part of a comprehensive multi-layered system able to provide protection against air threats, including cruise missile and UAVs. According to Johansson: “The system must also have technical possibility for future upgrades. Command and control system is the most important part of any integrated missile system.” Saab has developed a multi-layered ground-based air-defence system comprised of RBS 70 SM, BAMSE missiles and GIRAFFE radars. The whole system is indigenously developed. All modern air forces are interested in intercepting enemy air assets far away

ZSU-23-4 Shilkha — Russianorigin radar-guided self-propelled anti-aircraft gun 40mm Bofors L40/70 anti-aircraft gun — Sweden ZRK-SD Kvadrat — Russian-origin tracked medium-range surface-to-air missile system OSA-AKM system — Russianorigin mobile, low-altitude, short-range tactical missile system Strela-10M3 — Russian-origin mobile, optical/infra-red guided, low-altitude, short-range system 2K22 Tunguska — Russian-origin tracked anti-aircraft weapon armed with a surface-to-air gun and missile system Igla — Russian-origin shoulderfired SAM

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August 2012


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CURRENT INDIAN AIR DEFENCE ASSETS

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AUSAIRPOWER.NET

RBS 70 NG VSHORAD System features Automatic target tracking Integrated thermal imager Visual target assignment Simplifed aiming functions Simultaneous detection of several targets All-target capability (with BOLIDE Missile) Technical data Guidance method Effective range Altitude coverage Deployment time Reloading time Max velocity

: : : : : :

Laser beam-riding missile 200 - 8,000 m 0 - 5,000 m 30 sec Less than 6 sec (MANPADS) (BOLIDE) Mach 2

SAAB

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tional data with tactical radio. For communicating with the higher command formations the system has Link 16. When asked about Indian airdefence capability enhancement he said: “The way to build a good air defence is to build by adding functionality stepwise and the way to create this should be part of the defence procurement programme. The RFP plays a very small part in this.” Johansson also talked about the benefits of the line-of-sight missiles versus homing missiles saying the RBS 70 NG’s flying time was 10s. It is a laser-guided missile with a range of 8 km, whereas the range required in the RFP is 6 km. The problem with homing missiles is that it loses a lot of energy. If a missile loses less energy, then it has better chances of hitting a manoeuvring target. A homing missile experiences three times more ‘G’ force than the aircraft it is targeting. Whereas a line- of-sight missile has fewer manoeuvres to do so as it has more chances of hitting. Short-range SAM Saab is also participating in the tender for short-range surface-to-air missiles (SAMs). The request for proposal for this was sent out last December and Saab submitted its response in April. Saab is offering its BAMSE missile system for this competition. The required range in the RFP is 15 km and the Saab missile has max range of 20 km — way longer than the required range, informed Johansson. A typical Bamse system is made up of the GIRAFFE radar and command and control system with fire control radar and six missiles. It is a radar-guided line-of-sight missile system. According to Johansson, the GIRAFFE radar systems are operational with the French Air Force, in addition to Estonia, which does not use the missile system. They are using the radar and command and control system from Saab. Mat also said: “Saab’s missiles work with other command system and radars. Similarly, Saab’s control system and radar also work with other missile system. We have sold more than 500 GIRAFFE systems across the world. The US approached Saab as the single vendor for this system and it is operational in Iraq and Afghanistan.” August 2012


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DEFBIZ

I

N TODAY’S battlefield, the need for communication is crucial and an army armed with better communication capabilities will have a definite edge over its adversary. The seamless flow of secure information across the theatre battlefield, from the higher to lower formations, and vice versa within the shortest possible time, can be the difference between victory and defeat. Every army, therefore, aspires to have a totally encrypted and a reliable communication system. In the June issue of Geopolitics (see BizIntel), we had predicted the possible contenders likely to be selected in the TCS competition and the results are as

per our report. The MoD has selected the Bharat Electronic Limited (BEL) and a consortium consisting of Larsen & Toubro, Tata Power SED and M/s HCL Infosys as the two developing agencies for the TCS contract. The MoD released the Expression of Interest for this programme in 2010 to eight firms, both in the private and the public sectors. After three years of deliberations, the Ministry has down selected two firms to develop the prototype. This is the first of the ‘Make India’ programme that has been down selected. The news of the down

selection has made the private defence players euphoric. As per the ‘Make India’ clause, the government will pay 80 per cent of the development cost of the prototype and rest of the 20 per cent will be funded by the contender. The significance of this contract is in its tactical importance as the TCS will be part of the corps assets. It is going to be a mobile communication system that will move with the Army columns. This is basically a highlypowerful mobile network which will have the capability to transfer voice, data, maps, etc

HEMANT RAWAT

The Indian Army’s communication requirements have been long ignored and it needs to replace its legacy communication systems at once. Towards this end, the Ministry of Defence (MoD) has gone ahead with the selection of vendors to manufacture the Tactical Communication System (TCS) for the Indian Army, writes ROHIT SRIVASTAVA

L A IC G O L O N H C E T A G IN W BESTO

ADVANTAGE www.geopolitics.in

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INFORMATION DOMINANCE: A mobile network which can be transported anywhere during war, the TCS will bestow the Army with the ability to communicate and transfer data


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g from one point to another through a secure and encrypted network system. The contenders are going to design a communication network that will be capable of transferring very large amounts of data in real time. The contenders had displayed their indigenously-designed components at the last Defexpo. Sources in the Army have said that they are very upbeat about this programme. The Army was not in favour of the contract being given to any PSU on the preferential basis. Sources further revealed that the contenders are expected to field their systems for trials in next 16-18 months. The trials are expected to last for 6-8 months. During the trials, the two most important criteria for the selection will be how secure the communication is through the TCS and the amount of data transfer. At one point of time, there were rumours that the MoD was thinking of handing over the contract to BEL as it was not very confident about the private sector’s capability to keep the algorithm secret. The algorithm is very sensitive for such a system. These systems follow a frequency-hopping system mechanism to dodge any enemy jamming. The final contender will manufacture seven TCSs for `1500 cr each at the present cost. The division-level system is expected to cost `300 cr. The Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FICCI) and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) have also taken a keen interest at the entry private players into the defence manufacturing market. In a press statement, Dr Rajiv Kumar, Secretary General, FICCI said, “This is a watershed event in the history of defence procurement. FICCI welcomes this step which is in line with the recommendations of the Planning Commission to use ‘Make’ and ‘Buy & Make (Indian)’ categorisation for all flagship defence contracts with Indian companies as prime contractors. It is

HC TIWARI

DEFBIZ

UNIQUE ENDEAVOUR: The TCS is the first-ever programme to have three major private firms forming a consortium to bid for any contract

noteworthy that both public and private sector industry will be participating in this programme. Encouraging competition and collaboration in the domestic defence industry will go a long way in accomplishing the goal to drastically reduce imports and to create a robust, competitive, indigenous defence manufacturing base.” The CII has reportedly spoken out on similar lines, “Army has selected a private sector Special Purpose Company consisting of Larsen & Toubro, Tata Power SED and M/s HCL Infosys Ltd as a designated agency (DA) for the prestigious TCS project. Both DAs are supposed to make the prototype and out of two the lowest bidder will be given the final project. This selection is an outcome of rigorous rounds of scrutiny and years of concerted efforts put in by the Corps of Signals, Army, Defence Ministry and Indian Industry together.” The programme has many firsts to its credit. Not only is it the first Make India programme to come to the development phase, but it is also the first-ever programme to have three major private firms forming a consortium to bid for any contract. The partners of the consortium have not only buried their commercial differences, but have also synergised

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their capabilities to maximise their chances of winning this very important contract. FICCI has said that it “believes that this approach demonstrates the maturity of the Indian private industries in the defence sector and their willingness to go the extra mile towards achieving self-reliance in defence.” FICCI in its statement has further said: “FICCI has been advocating that competition and merit-based selection in the defence sector will usher in new partnerships and business models which will help India’s Defence Industry. Both Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) and the private industry will thereby emerge stronger and become globally competitive. The ‘Make’ programmes envisaged in the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP), provide a new opportunity to build on the engineering & manufacturing capabilities as well as agility of private industry to complement the R&D base in the defence sector. They would serve as catalysts in establishing India-specific, secure and customised solutions for our armed forces and contribute to national security while ensuring the much-needed indigenous life-cycle support.” August 2012


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“THE CAPABILITIES OF THE

LOCKHEED MARTIN

MH-60S ARE PROVEN” The Indian Navy is looking for a multi-role helicopter to replace its ageing chopper fleet and cope with the multifaceted challenges of the future. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA spoke with Lockheed Martin’s GEORGE BARTON, Vice President, Business Development, Ships & Aviation Systems (SAS), about the firm’s offer to the Navy

On Indian Navy’s multi-role Helicopter RFI (MH-60 R and MH-60 S) We are here to talk about the world’s largest competition for a helicopter programme. The Indian Navy is looking for 75 multi-role helicopters and the tender is in the Request for Information (RFI) stage. We are participating with the MH-60 Romeo (R) and MH-60 Sierra (S) and are talking to the Indian Navy about their capabilities. We envision the Indian Navy benefiting from the systems as they have been operational with the US Navy for many years and are proven.

There are more than 600 MH-60 R and S helicopters operating. A larger aircraft fleet provides logistics, cost, training and operability benefits. Team Romeo, which comprises Sikorsky, Lockheed Martin and the US Navy, recently won an Australian competition for 24 aircraft. We participated through the Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route against the Direct Sales Competition (DCS) as the rationale for this is low and proven cost. I think the people know exactly how much the aircraft is going to cost and the high technology that is part of the helicopter. So the MH-60 R is the premier anti-submarine helicopter in the world today. It has tremendous antisurface capability and it also performs all the other duties that any other helicopter executes. August 2012


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On briefing to the Indian Navy We have briefed the Indian Navy on the capability of the MH-60s, and since it is buying such a large number of helicopters, it might want to consider buying a combination of Romeo and Sierra helicopters. Sierra helicopters specialise in anti-surface warfare (ASuW ), mine counter mission and logistics. It also performs the entire spectrum of missions that is expected from a multi-role helicopter. The Indian Navy is also interested in additional missions, such as anti-submarine warfare (ASW ), commando operations, amphibious warfare, anti-piracy and a host of other missions. The entire system is integrated through cockpit, which has the same software for both aircraft. So when you get into the MH-60 R one realise it has all the ASW sensors or Hellfire missiles or radar. Likewise, when you walk into Sierra aircraft, one realises it has mine counter measures or Hellfire systems, etc. The beauty of this is a common training, common logistics, common parts — even down to the processing, we have common processors. If one walks into the MH-60 S, one sees the Hellfire missiles hung high on the wings, but in the Romeo it is on the lower side. From the inside, the pilot would not know whether he is sitting in a Romeo or a Sierra, because the interface to launch the Hellfire missile is the same. The training benefits for the pilots are huge. On development programme We have a robust development programme. It took us ten years to develop and mature this aircraft, the MH-60 R www.geopolitics.in

was fielded in 2006. The US Navy spent over a billion dollars to ensure that it was operationally ready for fleet introduction. So the Indian Navy will benefit from all that development work. Additionally, there have been three different spiral upgrades since 2006, which increased the reliability and capability of computers and increased capability of all of the mission systems, resulting in insignificant cost reduction. We have seen significant cost savings from the first five blocks of the aircraft (131 helicopters). The US Navy is contracting with us for five blocks of aircraft, totaling around 120 aircraft. The cost saving for the US Navy is close to 20 per cent. So we have learnt to build these aircraft in a cost-effective manner. Even though the capability has increased from the 2006 (aircraft), the cost has gone down. We are now able to offer that internationally. In fact, Australia is also a beneficiary of this. On the development of the Romeo The Romeo was developed to replace two helicopters, the MH-60 Bravo and SH-60 Foxtrot, both of which had ASW capability. The Foxtrot was also used for Search and Rescue, whereas the Bravo was more of a multi-role helicopter. Basically, we squeezed those two helicopters to build the MH-60 R, with capability that far exceeded both the platforms. If you compare the Romeo’s radar and electronics, then it is probably ten times better than that of legacy aircraft. Its ASW capability is three to seven times better. I mean in ideal conditions, it is seven times better, and in adverse conditions it is three times better.

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Similarly, the Sierra was built to replace a number of aircraft with search- and-rescue capability, logistics and commando-type operations. It makes sense for the Indian Navy to have flexibility with the platform. The Indian Navy, like the US Navy, has wide-ranging operational requirements. The US Navy used to operate seven types of helicopters, but now it has reduced it to two types. You don’t have to make too many compromises with these two versions of aircraft. We are waiting for the RFP (request for proposal) and then we will see what the requirements are and which platform is meeting them. We are very confident of our products. On the last discussion with the Navy We had a discussion with the Indian Navy earlier this year. I think this is going to be a very large competition. It is very interested in this competition, so it is talking to everybody. We feel there will be a large number of competitors and we feel we will be very competitive. We did very well in Australia, they were looking for the Romeo even though they didn’t have such a large requirement. We went into overall requirements, details, cost, overall cost, life cycle cost, etc. On the platform These aircraft belong to the naval version of the Hawk family. The US Navy has been flying them for 20 years. Numerous upgrades have kept them a cutting-edge aircraft. When you take a land-based helicopter over sea you see many problems. Over the years, Sikorsky has made numerous improvements to ensure cruise control. Because you have commonality with the larger fleet, you end up with a number of lifecycle cost savings. That’s why the US Navy went from seven to two platforms. On Indian content We are waiting for the RFP, to see what indigenous content the Indian Navy might require. We want to see what those requirements are. As we get close to the RFP, we will send our team to have discussions with Indian industry and pick the right partners for the various systems. I can tell you that we will have best aircraft with a competitive price for the Indian Navy. There is no doubt in my mind about that. August 2012


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L-3'S BAGS LUCRATIVE CONTRACT

L-3's platform integration arm has won its second contract to covert a Boeing 747-8 to VVIP configuration. But as to the identity of the “head-of-state customer”, the company is staying tight-lipped. What it has disclosed is that the work will be carried out at L-3's completions centre in Waco, Texas, and span an in-flight entertainment system, lighting and sound elimination and dampening technologies — plus painting and “work on other major aircraft systems”. On top of interior completions, it offers VVIP customers an elevator system — which can operate between the cargo deck and main deck in flight — and its ATCS missile warning system.

YAKOVLEV SHOWCASES YAK-130

For the Russians one breakthrough was the first demonstration of an in-service Yak-130 at a major international show, having made an earlier Farnborough appearance as a sales prototype. This two-seat aircraft can be used both for pilot training and for combat, and has received positive comments from international military aviation experts. It is already in the hangars of the Russian Air Force.

by consultancy giant Price Waterhouse Coopers (PwC) presented at the show, India is the preferred destination for overseas research and development (R&D) investment — leaving China far behind. And, India is also closing the gap on China to become the second-leading country for manufacturing investment. According to the report: Of 54 R&D investments made by the top 50 aerospace and defence companies worldwide between 2000 and 2011, 12 projects went to India, seven to the USA, six to Russia, five to the UK and just four to China. Most of those Indian investments came during the past five years, indicating an accelerating interest in the country that PwC global aerospace and defence leader Neil Hampson describes as “the partner of choice for collaborative R&D”, which is likely to be fol-

lowed by manufacturing partnerships. During the same period 114 foreign manufacturing investments were made but China claimed 23 — just three more than India. The US attracted 15 projects, and Mexico 10. That apart, there were no major announcements from India, no major deals — although Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) had a chalet and there were a few other participants as well, but it was all very subdued. Overall, though, it wasn't really as bad as had been predicted. In fact, it was subdued, but for the rest it was business as usual. There were deals completed for about 800 aircraft worth $72 billion, which is substantially higher than 2010, when the deals totalled a collective $47 billion for about 835 aircraft. Nonetheless, it's shorter than the red hot Paris Air Show last year

LOCKHEED MARTIN'S GLOBAL PUSH

Lockheed Martin is continuing its push into the international market with a commitment to grow the non-US proportion of its business by at least 3 per cent in the next several years. Speaking at Farnborough, Marillyn Hewson, who is set to take over as the company’s COO on January 1, 2013, said that the corporation wanted to increase its international sales to 20 per cent of the total, while retaining its revenues in the US. “An important element of our growth strategy is our focus on increasing our international business from about 17 per cent today to 20 per cent over the next several years. We have confidence we can do that because we have a mature portfolio of proven and relevant products and systems,” Hewson stated. The areas where Lockheed believes it can continue to grow the business include cyber security, airborne Airborne ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance), integrated air and missile defence and IT.

RAYTHEON'S NEW ANALYSIS TOOL

Raytheon has introduced a new missile defence system architectural analysis tool designed to help identify the best ways to Continued on Page 42 www.geopolitics.in

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when airplane makers made deals for about 1,336 aircraft. Orders and commitments announced at Farnborough this year totalled an official 758 aircraft, according to show organisers. For the record, it must be mentioned that more than 140 aircraft took part in the static and flying displays, including the Boeing 787 Dreamliner which flew on the first three days of the show — and the Airbus A380 in attendance for all seven days of the show. Flying display highlights included the Bell Boeing V-22 Osprey tiltrotor, a Saab Gripen fighter, and the Korean T50 jet trainer. The trade show portion of Farnborough involved far more than just the BoeingAirbus rivalry. Japanese manufacturer Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. sold 100 of its Mitsubishi Regional Jet (MRJ) aircraft, while Canadian manufacturer Bom-

bardier Aerospace sold 52 of the company's Q400 NextGen, CRJ, and CSeries aircraft. Nonetheless, most of the excitement was on the commercial side. For the defence side of the business, there were far too many imponderables, budget cuts, sluggish economy and a complete shift from traditional markets. Manufacturers exuded confidence in the 'overseas' market, but the fact is the

United States is still the biggest defence market in the world and there are looming budget cuts in the offing. Cuts worth $487 billion have already been announced and another automatic cut of $500 billion stares at the start of 2013. Boeing, the US's second-largest defence company by sales, wants to increase its foreign presence from 24 per cent to 30 per cent in the coming two years, as US

AMERICAN MUSCLE: A static display in front of a chalet showcasing classics such as the F/A-18 SuperHornet

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leverage current NATO assets in support of growing Europe’s integrated air and missile defence capabilities. The analysis tool was built leveraging Raytheon’s extensive knowledge and experience across sensors, command and control, and interceptors within the current European Phased Adaptive Approach construct. The company is also working on developing a new class of small weapons designed for unmanned air vehicles like the AAI RQ-7 Shadow used by the US Army and US Marine Corps. It can employ both a digital semi-active laser or can be guided by a global positioning system/inertial navigation system. The Aviation Warrior, created by Raytheon was among a raft of new aircraft gadgets on display that appear to be adapting technology popularised by phones and tablet computer devices to fly modern jets. The Aviation Warrior uses a rugged processor the size of a chunky smart phone which is said to be as powerful as a laptop. This powers a headsup display on the pilot’s helmet and a small screen on their wrist. Using these, a pilot can view full-colour terrain maps and virtual images of the landscape around them on display that adjust as they move their heads. Their helmets also relay surround-sound audio alerts, giving directional warnings of incoming missiles

SAAB SHOWCASES GRIPEN NG

Saab brought its new-generation Gripen to the air show, not as a demonstrator aircraft for potential new technologies but as a systems prototype for the intended production aircraft. Gripen NG, or Gripen E/F as it is also known, has new avionics and new cockpit installed, and just before Farnborough received the full-standard Selex Galileo ES05 Raven e-scan radar, complete with repositioner. In this guise, JAS 39-7 has become the avionics test bed for the Gripen E/F. Saab continues to target a number of opportunities for the Gripen around the world. Brazil is the most obvious, where the aircraft is pitched against the Rafale and the F/A-18. Success there could open the door to further Latin American sales. Thailand is likely to order a third batch of aircraft, while Malaysia is in the market for a replacement for the Russian MiG-29. Other Far East possibilities exist in the Philippines, Indonesia and Vietnam.

orders for military aircraft such as its C-17 heavy transport aircraft and its F-15 fighter jet dry up. Jim McNerney, Boeing chief executive, said in an interview with the Financial Times: "For the F-15 and C-17, international orders are playing a significant role in extending the life of the lines. It is extending beyond shutdown dates that otherwise would be looming in a year or two." Not just these, long lead times means that even aircraft such as Bell Boeing's V-22 tilt rotor - although with backlog contracts from the US - a helicopter propeller aircraft hybrid, would seriously need to wrap up a few global contracts to be able to continue investments and ensure a smooth continuation of production lines. The US defence majors are worried about prospects for automatic $500 billion US military budget cuts called "sequestration" over the next decade that could be triggered automatically on January 1, 2013 if Congress cannot agree to controlled defence cuts. "There's no clarity on how that $500 billion reduction will

flow down into individual programmes," says Dennis Muilenburg, president of the Boeing Defense, Space & Security in the show daily put out by Aviation Week. Robert Kelly Ortberg, executive vice-president for government systems in Rockwell Collins told the Financial Times: "Just like every other US company, we are looking to the international market to offset softness in our domestic market." He added: "Our military markets have been through a decade of very strong growth. We are now entering, certainly domestically, a different time." In the same piece Mick Maurer, president of Sikorsky, the US helicopter manufacturer, warned that uncertainty "has paralysed us a little bit". But he was gung-ho on India: "Outside the US, they will be the second-largest military market in the world. And we intend to play a big part in that," Maurer said, noting Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Mexico and Brazil were all of growing interest as long-term markets. But it is not just a race to get there

STRATEGIC LIFTER: The Airbus Military A400M Atlas is a multi-national four-engine turboprop tactical airlifter with strategic capabilities

EMBRAER GAINS BIG WITH KC-390

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first. The defence and aerospace industry also needs to figure out how to establish a local presence as countries increasingly demand foreign defence companies help them establish their own domestic industries. “We have to become local and really globalise our business so that in these important countries we have a local footprint and we become a local player,” Maurer said. There are, however issues that could well affect sales in India and elsewhere. The collapse of the Indian Rupee — down 17 per cent against the US Dollar — and the 30 per cent fall in the oil price that has huge negative implications for defence exports to the Gulf, as well as oil-producing states in Asia and Africa. But the Russians are coming back with a bang. One of the cornerstones of President Valdmir Putin's administration has been to get the Russian aerospace industry back on track. There is news of broadening foreign military

sales for Russian military hardware. According to Flight Global, major production orders have been signed for almost 270 new combat and training aircraft, and deals are due to follow for an expected 400 more under Moscow's 10-year re-armament package for combat and transport aircraft. The Russian aerospace industry made a strong showing at Farnborough with 55 representatives. It included a Yak-130 combat trainer, an Aeroflot SSJ100 jetliner, and SaM146 and PD14 turbofan engines. The Kamov Ka-62 helicopter — a civil version of the military multirole Ka-62 — made its international debut in the form of a fullscale mock-up. United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) president Mikhail Pogosyan said that military production would fall from today's 80 per cent of UAC's total to 58 per cent in 2014 due to the rapid expansion of civil and special-mission business. UAC is studying a modern lightweight tactical airlifter

to replace the long serving An-26. Pogosyan acknowledged that the Il-112 project in the same category ran into difficulties due to overspending and inadequate orders. He confirmed plans for the restart of An-124 heavy-lifter production in 2014. The new-build aircraft will feature modern avionics and offer “much lower operational costs”. Pogosyan expects a contract for R&D on the Multirole Transport Aircraft (MTA) project with India to be signed in August, greenlighting the start of its development. In the meantime, the prototype of the Il-476-a modernised Il-76-is scheduled to make its first flight in October. That apart, the other big news was the drones. Almost every major international aircraft maker brought with them their own latest drone. BAE Systems displayed its long-range Taranis stealth UAV prototype outside its chalet. Israel has long sold small unarmed drones to several countries Continued on Page 45

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cent of Embraer Defence and Security’s total revenue in 2012, up from 19 per cent last year, and was a big focus of the company’s presence at Farnborough. Embraer is discounting countries such as China and India — which are developing their own military transport aircraft — as potential buyers of the KC-390.

AIRBUS PULLS OUT A400M

Airbus pulled out the A400M airlifter out of flying displays due to continued engine problems, forcing it to sit out for the popular annual stunts for the second year running. The move repeated a decision at last year’s equivalent event outside Paris, but was not expected to disrupt plans to deliver it to its first customer, France, around the end of the year. The A400M cost 20 billion euros to develop and is designed to add airlift capacity for seven European NATO nations.

RECESSION HITS DEFENCE MAJORS

Finmeccanica had halved its budget for Farnborough. Giuseppe Orsi, chief executive said: We need to concentrate on the business. "The group will be involved with a Russian export programme and a NATO ground surveillance project". Britain's BAE Systems, Europe's biggest defence manufacturer slimmed down, sending fewer executives and cutting its exhibits to only its aerospace business, rather than the broader displays of past events. Northrop Grumman Corp -- the fourthlargest government contractor in the US was absent at the show. A reflection of shrinking US defence budget. Northrop Grumman, which earned slightly more than $15 billion in US contracts in 2011 said in a statement that the move was "in full alignment with its affordability and cost reduction goals". Northrop Grumman's decision to skip Farnborough reportedly is the largest step yet taken by a major contractor to cut event costs. The company typically has had a high-profile presence at Farnborough.

CHOPPER FIRMS EYE GLOBAL SHIFT As part of new Chief Executive Giuseppe Orsi's group turn-around strategy, Finmeccanica expects international orders to overtake domestic market contracts in 2013 as the group focuses on emerging defence markets. Finmeccanica is counting on nations beyond its traditional markets such as Italy, Poland, the UK and the US to account for 52 per cent of new orders next year. Orsi acknowledged Algeria, Australia, Brazil, India, Libya, Malaysia, Poland, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as the group's principal markets.

AGUSTAWESTLAND, RUSSIAN HELICOPTERS TEAM UP AgustaWestland signed an agreement with Russian Helicopters at the Farnborough International Airshow to jointly develop an all-new 2.5 tonne class single-engine helicopter. The agreement was signed by Bruno Spagnolini, CEO of AgustaWestland, and Russian Helicopters CEO Dmitry Petrov. The overall programme will be shared on a 50-50 basis, with the new helicopter being designed for the worldwide market and a wide range of applications. AgustaWestland and Russian Helicopters established the joint venture company HeliVert in 2010 to assemble AW139 helicopters at a new plant in Tomilino, near Moscow. The plant will meet the growing demand for the AW139 helicopter in both Russian and CIS civil markets with production starting this year. Russian Helicopters, JSC is a subsidiary of UIC Oboronprom, which in turn is a part of Russian Technologies State Corporation.

Also, the Anglo- Italian major reportedly took orders for 70 light- and medium-lift helicopters at Farnborough. The choppers, ranging from the AW 139 medium-lift twin-engine helicopters to the AW189 and the AW169 will be used for diverse missions by clients across the world including the oil and gas, news, and the police. Its new AW189 civil helicopter is expected to create 1,500 jobs in the UK and rake in up to £2 billion in exports. The new long-range helicopter will be Britain's first civil aircraft export in 15 years.

CHOPPER BIZ SIKORSKY BAGS $8.5 BN US DEAL The US Army and Navy have signed an $8.5 bn contract with Sikorsky to buy a baseline quantity of 653 Blackhawk and Seahawk helicopters through December 2017. The five-year contract will yield significant savings for the US Government compared with purchasing the same quantity across five separate annual agreements. The five-year agreement also allows the Army and Navy to order as many as 263 more aircraft within the same contractual terms. The base contract includes UH-60M utility and HH-60M medevac helicopters for the US Army, and MH-60R and MH-60S helicopters for the US Navy.

OSPREY, RELENTLESS ON DISPLAY The Boeing V-22 Osprey tiltrotor was back, having previously appeared at Farnborough 2006. One of the stars of this year's airshow, the V-22, takes off and lands like a helicopter but can fly like turboprop aircraft. It looks impressive, but it has been controversial since fatal crashes occurred during develop-

F-35, SUKHOI T-50 ABSENT

But two significant aircraft in this sector were absent: the new US F-35 fighter and Russia's Sukhoi T-50 - the PAK FA. Both are still top-secret, however, and while they have had demonstration flights, they were not on display in the static pavilion sections of air shows. www.geopolitics.in

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ment. Boeing is looking for export sales, but these are not favourable times: recently the governor of the Japanese island of Okinawa refused to allow the US Marines to base Ospreys there because of safety issues. Sweeping away any safety concerns that have dogged the tilt rotor, Bell's President and Chief Executive John Garrison undertook a half-hour demonstration flight on the V-22 tilt-rotor airplane at Farnborough. After the demonstration flight Garrison told the media: “I am pretty bullish, there is a lot of positive momentum at Bell Helicopter despite the challenging (Department of Defense) environment and the challenging world economic environment. As part of a joint venture with Boeing, Bell builds the V-22 Osprey, for the US military. The European debut of the Bell 525R Relentless was also made at Farnborough. First launched in February with great flourish at the Heli Expo, the Relentless has a range of 925km. Equipped with a new Garmin G5000H integrated avionics suite, the 525R will be powered by two GE CT7-2F1 turboshaft engines and also integrate a triple-redundant BAE Systems-built flyby-wire (FBW) system.

display at Farnborough, Eurocopter's twin-engine EC175 was one of the best medium-class helicopters for offshore oil and gas operations, search and rescue, VIP/corporate airlift and other missions. Deliveries will start following the certification planned at the end of this year with the EC175 in the oil and gas configuration. The company also displayed 1/5 scale model of the X3 high-speed hybrid aircraft. Recently on tour in United States, the Eurocopter high-speed longrange hybrid helicopter concept combines vertical takeoff and landing capabilities with fast cruise speeds of more than 220 knots. Short span wings, each fitted with a tractor propeller, are this hybrid chopper's most distinctive trait. Traditionally, choppers have used the tail rotors to offset the torque of the main rotor. Eurocopter has used a different approach on the X3. Its starboard propeller rotates at a higher speed than the one on the port to counter the torque effect making it one of the fastest helicopters in the world.

including India. Russia has announced that it hopes to fly its first prototype armed drone in 2014. China has made it clear it is interested in building similar systems. Even if foreign markets remain sometimes off-limits, the Pentagon is seen as still keen to expand the use of drones into new areas. Lockheed Martin says it is investing in unmanned technologies and plans to compete for a future US Navy contract to build a next-generation drone that will operate from aircraft carriers. That contest is also likely to include Northrop Grumman Corp, the maker of the X-47B, a US Navy programme that is demonstrating some of the initial capabilities that would be packed on the future carrier drones. Officials say Britain is also increasingly interested in naval drones to operate from carriers as well as a range of smaller warships.

EUROCOPTER SHOWS OFF EC175, X3 Eurocopter’s exhibit presence at the 2012 Farnborough International Airshow was incorporated within the dedicated pavilion of its EADS parent company. On

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Firms involved in missile production

ACCORDING TO V K Saraswat, Scientific Adviser to Defence Minister and Director General of Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), the industries had helped the country achieve 80 per cent self-sufficiency in missiles production. In addition to the Agni and the Prithvi series of missiles, India is now into production of a large number of the first-ofits-kind Akash missiles. While the 7001200-km range Agni-I was first tested at the Integrated Test Range in Chandipur, Orissa in 1989, the 5,000km-range Agni-V intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) was test-fired successfully on April 19, 2012. The Prithvi series of tactical surface-to-surface short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) range from 150 km to 350 km.

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IMDJKOCH.WORDPRESS.COM

IN ORDER to increase the number of Goans joining the armed forces, the state government has announced an incentive of `1,00,000 to be provided to youth commissioned through Union Public Service Commission (UPSC) as a permanent commissioned officer. Those commissioned as short service commissioned officer would be given `50,000 and ranks below that of commissioned officer would get `25,000.

THESE COMMANDOS will be made to perform specialist counter-terror and counter-hijack operations. The force now has 15 VIPs under its protection, which is the lowest number in recent times. Although the redeployment of the commandos from VIP duties back to fighting terror was conceived by NSG’s last Director General Rajan K Medhekar, the current NSG chief Subhash Joshi has put officers on the job to complete the task. Modelled on special foreign forces suh as UK’s SAS and GSG-9 of Germany when it was raised, the NSG was not intended to undertake the functions of state police forces or other paramilitary forces of the country.

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NSG men pulled out of VIP duty

OVER THE past 22 years of militancy in the state. In fact, the quantum of weapons seized is so high that up to three Army divisions can be equipped with small arms. A conventional Army division is made up of nearly 10,000 men and officers. Apart from Kalashnikovs, other weapons recovered from the militants include 11,431 pistol and revolvers, 1,027 universal machine guns, 2,262 rocketpropelled grenade launchers, 391 sniper rifles and hundreds of other weapons, including light machine guns and selfloading rifles. Also seized over the same period of time were more than 45,00,000 bullets and 63,000 grenades and 45,000 kgs of explosives.

Commandos guard Barmer oil fields

AFTER BEING protected by private security guards, the Rajasthan oil fields are now being guarded by Kalashnikov-toting commandos. Commandos from the Border Home Guard have been deployed to protect the oil fields spread over 3,111 sq km. The commandos have been specially trained in advanced techniques to prevent possible terror strikes. They deployed in the area after a request by Cairn India, which operates oil fields where the daily output is 1.75 lakh barrels. Cairn, which financed the training of the commandos, will also pay their salaries. August 2012


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IN A move aimed at offsetting the influence of China in regions like the disputed South China Sea off the coast of Vietnam, India will invest the money over the next five years in the maritime domain. The money will be allocated to deep-sea mining projects planned by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) and Geological Survey of India (GSI). Efforts are also on to expedite the exploration of India’s 2,500-sq-km ocean bed to generate thermal energy and find fresh drugs.

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Soldiers took part in RIMPAC 2012

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scenarios over five weeks. The exercise offered a one-of-akind prospect where participants foster and sustain cooperative relationships. This was the twenty-third edition of the RIMPAC series of exercises, which originally began in 1971. This exercise was unique in that the Russian Navy participated with four warships.

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3rd

EIGHT FRESH battalions have been deployed to ensure effective patrolling on the borders with Nepal and Bhutan. Theses borders are currently patrolled by the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) and the force has started creating new Border Out Posts (BOPs) at these frontiers. The distance between the BoPs is 4.5 km and presently 450 have been erected on the Indo-Nepal border. Terrorists have used the Nepal border to infiltrate into India and the border is also open to the smuggling of fake Indian currency, arms and narcotics.

BrahMos Production Centre planned

THE NEW Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) facility is planned in Nagpur. The other two production facilities are situated in Thiruvananthapuram and Hyderabad. The new facility is being planned to step up production of the BrahMos missile for the requirements of the Indian armed forces. There is a also strong demand for these missiles from countries such as Indonesia and Malaysia, but the DRDO is concentrating first on meeting the domestic demand first.

BRAHMOS

THE WORLD’S largest naval war games with participation from 22 countries. Based out of Hawaii, RIMPAC 2012 was hosted by the Pacific Command of the US military. The forces arrayed at the joint exercise included 46 ships and submarines and 200 aircraft. The multinational military exercise held a series of complex and realistic warlike www.geopolitics.in

WIKIMEDIA/ABHINAG

ACCORDING TO 26/11 handler Zabiuddin Ansari alias Abu Jundal, the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) had trained 12 men for the Mumbai attack, but did not send two due to last minute changes in their plans. Police in India are now trying to find out who the two might have been. Delhi police is seeking the details of Abu Jundal's Pakistani SIM card from the Interpol. Three SIM cards from Saudi Arabia were recovered from Jundal when he was arrested there last year, in addition to a Pakistani SIM card. Jundal's Pakistani SIM card is registered in the name of Riyasat Ali, which was his alias in Pakistan. Riyasat Ali was also the name on the Pakistani passport of Jundal which he used to travel to Saudi Arabia.

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TALIN IS said to have reverently described the Soviet artillery as the ‘God of War’. This view is the summation of the Soviet experience of the role played by various combat elements in the Second World War. The Russians propounded and practised the theory of applying massed artillery fire to first stall the German offensives and then to carry their counter-offensive to defeat Germany. Even after the Second World War, a close look at the development and induction of weaponry into the Soviet armed forces over the 50 years of the Cold War would reveal that the Soviet military doctrine had steadfastly remained tethered to according primacy to fire-power. For over three decades they retained a clear edge over their adversary in missile and rocket technology. The awesome destructive potential and reach of the Soviet rocket and missile forces remained a nightmare for the NATO till the very end of the Cold

War. In this context, it must be emphasised that any attempt to attribute the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War to the superior military capability of the NATO would be seriously flawed. The Russian military might is still globally potent. Interestingly, the American and the British military thinking differed from that of the Russians in that they viewed firepower as supportive to manoeuvres. In their perception, the debate was between attrition and maneuver, with the proponents of manoeuvre being declared the clear winners. Perhaps, the divergence in military philosophies was due to the differences in geography. Britain is an island and the Pacific and the Atlantic Oceans detach America from its adversaries. This also explains America’s emphasis on developing air power and naval fleets as against the Soviet focus on land forces. The evolution of military technology

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DOMINATING THE BATTLEFIELD: If war is about destruction, for the Army the artillery is the arm responsible for almost all destruction missions

through the ages has had at its core the requirement to increase the range and the lethality of weapon systems. From the sword, to the length of the spear, to bows and arrows, to artillery guns, bomber aircraft, rockets and missiles, there has been a continuum. Finally, during the latter half of the twentieth century, virtually all barriers to range and lethality were ultimately broken. Today, any point on the surface of the earth can be hit from any distance. The dramatic impact of such changes was first felt during World War One when the air arm of the artillery — the bomber aircraft — made its appearance. The range limitations of conventional tube artillery were overcome and this enabled the bombing of civilian population centres for the first time in the history of warfare. Overnight, airpower became the predominant obsession through both the Great Wars of the last century. But in the wake of the bombers came the fighter aircraft and a variety of air-defence systems. Attacking aircraft, expensive as they are, could not

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be certain of reaching their targets and returning safely. The vulnerability of bomber and fighter aircraft and their enormous costs, acted as a catalyst to the development of surface-based rockets and missiles. Initially, tube artillery was preferred over rockets because of its accuracy. But by the 1930s, it was believed that the ranges and throwweight of tube artillery had peaked and this triggered research in rocket technology. The Germans pioneered in rocket technology with the development of ‘Vergeltungswaffen’ (vengeance) weapons. The V-2 soon overcame the serious limitations of the V-1. The first V-2s were fired against London, Paris and

Antwerp in September 1944 causing numerous casualties. But more than the casualties was the psychological impact of tonnes of explosives landing out of nowhere. After the collapse of Germany, both the Soviets and the Americans captured large stocks of V-2 rockets, together with the scientists that did the development work. Concurrent research was undertaken by the US and the Soviets in the field of rocket and

missile technology, but the Russians were more focused as they had practically no strategic bombers. Geography, as mentioned earlier, was the other reason for America’s relative indifference to surfacebased long-range weapon systems. This

gave the Russians the initial lead in the ‘Space Race’ and also resulted in the ‘Missile Gap’. The US could only begin to bridge this gap when the Soviet Union started collapsing. The beginning of the breakdown of the Soviet Union also coincided with the awakening of military thinkers to the revolution in military affairs (RMA) that would silently but dramatically change the way in which future wars would be fought, especially by the technologicallyadvanced nations. The Gulf War was the first example of the emerging trends in

warfare. Since then, we have had Kosovo and now the campaign in Afghanistan. Each is a clear illustration of the manner in which technology is driving changes in military doctrine. The RMA covers a wide canvas. At the heart of all the technological advancements is the impact on firepower and knowledge power. What are the broad-spectrum technologies that are having such a profound effect? The first is computers and communications to include both hardware and software. A new-age weapons platform is inconceivable without embedded computers. Digitisation is permeating all aspects of battlefield management. The second is the advancements in surveillance systems that are capable of increasing battlefield awareness to levels that were earlier inconceivable. Smoke, dust, fog, haze and darkness are no longer barriers to observation, nor are buildings. Elevated platforms increase the range of surveillance systems. Satellites, therefore, are being extensively used as ‘spies in the sky’. While aircraft have been traditionally used for surveillance, unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are now rapidly being inducted for this role, in addition, to their capability to perform a variety of other operational missions. The third area is the range, lethality and accuracy of weapons-delivery platforms. Ranges of weapon systems have progressively increased to reach distances that can be defined as almost the ultimate. For some years now intercontinental missiles

GOD OF WAR

The structure of India’s artillery should be based on four essential pillars: weapons, appropriate ammunition, surveillance and target acquisition capabilities, and communications. If any of these pillars is weak, capability will suffer, warns VINAY SHANKAR www.geopolitics.in

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g COVERSTORY have been capable of reaching any target on earth. Simultaneously, the destruction per unit weight of warheads has increased significantly. Specially-designed warheads are now available for every typical target that may be found anywhere on the battlefield: tanks, bunkers, bridges airfields, communication centres, radar stations, fuel and ammunition dumps. But the most notable breakthroughs have been in the accuracy of warheads with the introduction of ‘intelligent munitions’. Microelectronic-based ‘smart weapons’ can detect heat, sound, radar emissions and other electronic signals; stream this incoming data through powerful analytical software; pick out the identifying signature of a specific target and then home in on it for a kill. One round-one hit, the hitherto ideal for direct firing weapons (detect, aim and fire) is now a reality with indirect firing weapon systems firing from

ranges as much as hundreds of kilometres. With smart sub-munitions singleround multiple-hit capability is also now available.

THE GULF WAR WAS THE FIRST EXAMPLE OF THE EMERGING TRENDS IN WARFARE The march of technology would seem to suggest the pre-eminence of knowledge power and firepower in future wars. The abject surrender of the considerable

military machine of Saddam Hussain in — as Alvin Toffler puts it — the first ‘Third Wave War’ or the routing of the Taliban in Afghanistan amply affirms that success in future wars will go to the side that achieves knowledge power and firepower dominance over the adversary. It may be argued that these illustrations should not be used to draw lessons as the adversaries were hopelessly inferior to the combined might of the Allies led by the US. Though there is some merit in this position, it would be equally unwise to not recognise and take advantage of the technologies that are beginning to transform warfare. Knowledge power or information ascendancy is a subject that is currently high on the agenda of most strategic ‘think tanks’. For the US it is a key area of focus in the twenty-first century. In India though awareness of the importance of

TOWARDS INDIGENOUS ARTILLERY POWER In order to achieve self-reliance in terms of artillery production in India, the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO) is developing a futuristic howitzer gun. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA met S SUNDARESH, Chief Controller, Research and Development (CCR&D), Armament and Combat Engineering, DRDO, to know more about new artillery projects On DRDO’s capability to create the howitzer DRDO Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) and the Army came together in 1980s to replicate the 105 mm field guns which were imported from S SUNDARESH abroad. The guns Chief Controller, (CCR&D) are still in service with the Indian Army’s artillery branch. The Bofors guns then came into service with the Indian Army and became the mainstay of the artillery corps. Though the Transfer of Technology (ToT) was given by the Bofors as part of the contract, for some reason the OFB did not make use of the technology and the Army too did not push to manufacture the Bofors gun based on the ToT. In 1995, the DRDO proposed the development of an indigenous artillery gun, but the Army was planning to procure guns from abroad. www.geopolitics.in

The DRDO was not allowed to pursue that project. We had the capability but there was no effort because of these constraints. On the joint effort with the OFB Last year, the Army came up with the Strategic Plan Directive. The OFB realised that the Bofors gun, based on the ToT, could be made by upgrading the electronic systems. The OFB was supposed to upgrade the 39-calibre Bofors gun to 45 calibre and then field this gun for user trials. The Army has agreed to place orders for a specific number of guns if they succeed at the trials. A composite weapon development team has been formed with Army leading the team. The team comprises officers from the Directorate General of Artillery, OFB, DRDO Armament and Combat Engineering (ACE) especially from Armament Research and Development Establishment (ARDE), Pune. OFB has already done successful technical trials in Balasore. The gun uses the old Bofors system with new barrel and corresponding recoil

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system to suit the increase in caliber. The DRDO is providing the design support to the OFB in this endeavour proposed by the Army in August 2011. The barrel of the gun was already with us as DRDO-OFB had applied for the global request for proposal (RFP) for the upgrade of the 39 calibre gun to 45 calibre. The OFB hopes to field a fully indigenised 155mm/ 45-calibre gun by 2013. All these efforts have been made in the last one year but for the last 20 years we did nothing. Whatever help OFB will ask, we will provide, otherwise we are only on the review side. Our design support will always be there but they may not need our help as all designs are available with them. The Army wants the DRDO to make guns for 2020 and beyond to replace the ageing gun systems. Since the new guns will last for at least 10 years, we are looking for some new technology. We are also working on finalising the project service quality requirement. We will incorporate new technology — like smart recoil system, automation in August 2012


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g COVERSTORY this subject is beginning to take root, our pace of acquisition of capabilities and assimilation of concepts has to be accelerated, otherwise, we would be seriously handicapped in realising our strategic aspirations. Having surveyed the advancements in warfare let us now examine the Indian Army’s military capability. It is contended that circumstance and our Army’s flawed conceptual framework have colluded to seriously limit our military’s combat punch. The flawed conceptual framework is embedded in the Army leadership’s subconscious psyche from the time officers begin their professional career. This stems from the differential in importance assigned to the artillery as compared to the armour and infantry; the support and the supported arms. At a very fundamental level, war is about destruction or the fear of

destruction and the occupation of territory or its denial. Destruction is caused by delivering ordnance from surface, sea and air-based platforms. Territorial

loading, and special coating on the barrel. We are talking to countries such as France, Italy and Israel to help us with the coating technology. This will be a public-private partnership which will involve OFB and private players for our 155/52 calibre. Major companies such as Tata, Bharat Forge and Larsen and Toubro (L&T) have shown interest in this project. This gun will be ready in three-five years and then go for user trials. We expect this gun to be ready for induction into the Army by 2020. Since we are inducting new technology, it is a challenge for us to do this in five years. We are getting very good support from the OFB and the industry. Everyone wants to be part of this project as it has huge business potential.

tracked self-propelled guns based on the Arjun chassis with Zuzana II howitzer from Konstruckta. Trials for the wheeled version of this gun have been completed. BEML showed interest in the tracked version and approached DRDO for the Arjun chassis. If selected, 100 more of these will be used and it makes sense for the DRDO. The Arjun chassis is being modified to mount the gun, and by the end of this year we will be ready for the trials. Samsung and Russia are also in competition. BEML will compete for this programme, not the DRDO. The chassis modification is being done at the CVRDE, Chennai. The final integration will be done by the

On tracked gun trials For the tracked gun system trials, Bharat Earth Movers Limited (BEML) fielded

KARGIL WAR SURVEILLANCE LIMITATIONS REDUCED THE EFFECTIVENESS OF ARTILLERY occupation is by the infantry alone or together with armour. For the Army, artillery is the arm responsible for almost all destruction missions. It is

expected to complement the capability of the infantry and armour in the direct fire tasks — (line of sight) but more importantly cover the entire spectrum of fire missions at the tactical, operational and strategic levels. The sweep and the versatility of the artillery merits better and deeper understanding. It concurrently and simultaneously covers the close, depth and distant operational spaces and at the same time enables commanders to apply combat power across his area of responsibility instantly and in real time. Other elements take time to move and be applied. Conceptually, the artillery is and should be the repository of all surfacebased platforms other than the direct fire short-range weapons that the infantry and armour possess. Consequently from the Army’s perspective, unless we change our mindsets, combat capability will not

BEML, which is the lead contractor. On ammunition There is a feasibility project for the development of the smart ammunition. We are already looking at the companies for the partnership with companies for the joint development. Russia, Israel, France, and the US are in dialogue for the joint development of smart ammunition. On human resource for the artillery project This time we are getting people with expertise in artillery guns. We will be sending engineers and scientists to Crankfield University in the US for a year-long course on gun systems. Seven people who have undergone such training are working on the project. This time we are striving to stay at forefront of technology.

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g COVERSTORY grow optimally. In war, for most of us who have been in it know, the cry for artillery fire is in stark contrast to the attention it receives in peace. The ‘circumstance’ matter dates back to the Bofors scandal. Since then, for a host of reasons, artillery modernisation has continued to be jinxed. Take, for example, the development of the ‘selfpropelled’ artillery. The experiment of mating the Vijayanta chassis with the GBT turret failed and so did the approach to design a hybrid gun based on the T-72 chassis. And then just when we were about to sign the contract for the Denel wheeled system and the Bhim (Arjun chassis and Denel turret) some innocuous news item in a South African daily put a full stop to this acquisition. This accounts for some 20 years since the first Request for Proposals (RFP) for a selfpropelled 155 mm gun system was issued. Ironically, especially when at that time the Denel turret was believed to be of contemporary technology and a lethal system — probably the best that the market had to offer. The story of the 155-mm-towed artillery is no different. It took almost a decade and a half for the government to get over the trauma of the Bofor’s case. Maybe the Kargil War helped in inducing the MoD to act. Un f o r t u n a t e l y, quite unwittingly

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the case of acquisition of the 155-mmtowed gun went awry. Originally the specifications that were drawn up stated our requirement for a 155 mm gun with 45/ 52 calibre, which could be either towed or mounted. Due to reasons that need not be gone into, the requirement eventually was modified to simply a towed 155 mm gun of 52 caliber. The option of 45 caliber and a mounted system was dropped. This change sowed the seeds for the unsuccessful trials that followed. Since, at the time the RFP for a 155 mm 52 caliber towed system was issued no gun manufacturer had developed such a gun. 45 caliber towed gun systems were available but not 52 caliber. The mounted systems had 52 caliber but the RFP had excluded the mounted option. So what happened? The vendors mounted a 52 caliber barrel on the systems that were designed for 45/39 calibers. Failure in trials was thus inevitable. Over the last few years RFPs have been issued, retracted and then again issued for both the towed and self-propelled 155 mm guns. At this stage it would be pointless to discuss what should have been done or not done. What is immensely important and imperative is that the evaluation and contracting process is completed at the earliest. In this context, it would be pertinent to point out that requirement of 155 mm

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towed and self-propelled systems were first projected way back in 1978. Yet today other than the small numbers of the early 80s vintage Bofors guns, the entire artillery is saddled with old and outdated guns; speaks volumes for our management of national security. Our rocket artillery and surface-tosurface missiles do not have a better story to tell. The Grad BM 21 was the first rocket artillery system to be inducted. Developed in the fifties, we procured these from the erstwhile Soviet Union. Though no longer contemporary, the Grad regiments are still in service. In the early 80s, the DRDO undertook the development of the Pinaka. Cost and time overruns afflicted this project. The Pinaka programme has an utterly curious feature to it and something that probably no other military has ever done. The Indian Army was compelled to accept two versions of broadly the same capabilities. The concerns of fielding, logistics, maintenance interoperability were all thrown overboard; clearly a case of civilian thinking being imposed on the military. The induction of Smerch — a very potent rocket system — again took more than ten years, primarily because the Army first relegated this requirement to a lower priority and subsequently

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g COVERSTORY because of the inordinate delays that are endemic to such acquisitions. Had we moved swiftly with this acquisition our posture and response during the Kargil conflict could have been materially different. Maybe the Pakistanis would even have been dissuaded from attempting that misadventure. Besides guns and rockets, the family of artillery weaponry also includes, generally all NLOS (non-line of sight) surface-tosurface missiles. Over the last decade or so the Prithvi, Agni and BrahMos units have been raised. Such units would obviously extend the operational and strategic reach of the Army. The newly-created Strategic Command would also legitimately stake a claim for these missile systems. Consequently, some duplication or flexibility in the allocation of resources may be a necessity but must only be accepted after an in-depth examination. On the subject of gun design, currently the belief is that the 155 mm is the ideal bore diameter and 45/ 52 caliber is about the maximum barrel length. Beyond this mobility suffers, or the throw weight to range and cost ratios gets skewed. On the other hand, tubelaunched conventional munitions, missiles and rocket artillery have in recent years witnessed some significant technological advances like enhancement in reach and lethality and

improvements in accuracy to ensure little or no collateral damage, with the capability of direct hits on small targets such as fortifications, radar sites, weapon platforms and even specific buildings. With sub-munitions, single-round multiple-hit capabilities are also now possible. So while the 155 mm guns can be expected to effectively cover a 30- 35 km arc, for targets beyond we require a mix of rocket and missile systems. Such systems from the Army’s perspective should be capable of effectively executing destruction/disruption missions up to about 300 kms. Developments in surveillance and target acquisition capabilities now offer levels of battlefield transparency, which were inconceivable a decade or two ago. Satellites, aircraft, unmanned aerial vehicle (UAVs) tethered balloons, and masts mounted with all weather day and night sensors are exponentially multiplying capabilities to look and attack. For optimising capabilities, the principle to remember is that the target acquisition reach must exceed the weapons reach by a minimum of twenty per cent. And the two have to be intimately wedded to each other through reliable and effective communications and datatransmission systems. In the Kargil War, surveillance limitations reduced the effectiveness of the artillery deployed by more than fifty per cent and poor communications compounded our problems

to the extent that we were down to only about 25 per cent of our potential. Yet we achieved so much. Clearly, had our communications and surveillance capabilities been close to what is desirable, the war would have been over much earlier and at a notably lower cost. What, therefore, emerges is that the structuring of the artillery has to be based on four essential pillars: weapons, appropriate ammunition, surveillance and target acquisition capabilities, and communications. If any of these pillars is weak — capability will suffer. So just pursuing the purchase of guns without focussing on the other essentials will lead to sub-optimal solutions. Over the last two decades or so the Army has been engaged in reviewing its operational philosophy based on the revolutionary advances in technologies that are impacting modern warfare. We have been dwelling on expanded spaces, nonlinearity of the battlefield, concurrent and simultaneous actions and so on. All this has happened almost entirely because of the enhanced reach of artillery weapon systems coupled with matching surveillance capabilities. Let us dwell on some specifics. Till the early Seventies, the Army’s tactical space was determined by the range of the 25 pdr guns whose mean fighting range was barely 7-8 thousand yards. For actions beyond this range close air support and

EXTENSIVE REACH: Modern artillery like the M-777 can pulverise enemy positions at extreme ranges

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OFFENSIVE FIREPOWER: The Smerch multi-barrel rocket systems can rain down massive amounts of ordnance on the enemy

CHALLENGES AHEAD AS INDIA is the only country to have used artillery successfully to attain the decisive advantage over Pakistan from time to time, the last major occasion being the Kargil War in 1999, it is quite LT GENERAL ANJAN MUKHERJEE natural for the Director General, Artillery Indian Defence Minister, AK Antony, to have recently stressed the government’s continued commitment to ensuring that the country has the optimum artillery resource at its disposal. “Arms and equipment, including gun systems in the Indian artillery are available in adequate quantity,” he noted, adding that “modernisation of www.geopolitics.in

artillery, which entails replacement of the equipment of older technology, is an on-going process and is being given priority to ensure that the artillery remains equipped with modern weapons systems”. However, it is also a fact that repeated efforts notwithstanding, India has not been able to buy any new artillery in recent years. Critics warn of serious implications, should the procurement of new artillery equipment continue to be delayed. But things are going to change for better, if Lieutenant General Anjan Mukherjee, the 34th Director General of the Directorate of Artillery, is to be believed. Participating in a seminar on Future Artillery India, organised by international defence portal, Defence IQ in June, General Mukherjee assured that all attempts were being made to realise the army’s vision of artillery modernisation. According to him, the govern-

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ment is in the process of producing, as well as procuring artillery guns from abroad, and in this India is looking at the strategic, economic and technological co-operation from abroad by creating a conducive technological environment. Accordingly, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), Ordnance Factory Boards (OFB) and private players are collaborating to give the Indian Army upgraded Bofors guns. Besides, India is soon going to have its first artillery guns after two decades through Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route, the BAE’s M777 ultra light howitzers. Moreover, India has floated Request for Proposal for 155mm/ 52 calibre self-propelled and towed artillery and the winner of these contracts will do business with the country for next 40 years. The Ministry of Defence(MoD) has asked the OFB to produce the Bofors August 2012


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g COVERSTORY other air effort had to be called for. Today, with the Smerch, BrahMos and the Prithvi, the operational envelope extends to 250-300 kms. Thus, currently the Army and the Air force have overlapping capabilities. Consequently, the traditional concepts of close air support, interdiction and engagement of depth targets merit some rethinking. How much should the Army take on from its integral resources? What will be the redefined role of the Air Force in terms of air support missions? Conclusions drawn will obviously impact on the projected acquisitions of the artillery and the Air Force. Two considerations in this matter are relevant: usability and cost effectiveness. Another significant leap in the artillery’s capability is to now match or even outdo the direct firing weapons’ unique feature of ‘one round one hit’. With smart, intelligent and precision munitions the artillery can match or even exceed the accuracy of direct-firing weapons by achieving ‘one round multiple hits’. These advancements must bring about a paradigm shift in our tank warfare concepts like blunting armour offensives or in the manner we used to plan the tank versus tank battles, because artillery can now ‘kill’ tanks

from considerable distances. The emerging versatility of smart munitions throws up an extremely complex issue of determining the right mix of ammunition for the entire range of anticipated missions. What should be the optimum ratios of dumb, improved con-

gun from the technology available from the previous contract. The OFB has tested the 45 calibre version recently and it has performed well, General Mukherjee informed. On the technological requirements of the artillery, he said, “We require light guns and heavier shells. The TNT content in the shell should go high. The guns need to be more accurate, with greater range and capable of firing heavier shells”. It may be noted that the Indian Army is looking towards achieving net-centricity so that after the Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) identify targets, the gun can hit them hard. With the advent of UAVs, the information about the enemy depth becomes available and this has changed the concept of tactical and strategic targets. It is in this sense that the DG Artillery said that what was once strategic has become tactical reach for today’s artillery. On specific future plans for the Artillery, General Mukherjee revealed that India planned to modernise its

artillery between 2014-2022. This would involve the procurement of long-range guns, multi-barrel rocket launchers, cruise missiles, self-propelled guns, battlefield management systems, specialised munitions and fire control systems. According to him, all these assets will be integrated for joint operation through a secure communication system. The seminar saw many other key

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AT THE HEART OF ALL TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCEMENTS IS IMPACT ON FIREPOWER AND KNOWLEDGE ventional munitions and smart/ intelligent munitions? The cost of sophisticated ammunition is quite steep. Therefore, the task of determining numbers and types must be undertaken with great care. It is likely that this subject has not received the attention it deserves. Though not quite related to the artillery there is a mental disposition issue at our decision-making levels that

decision-makers involved with Artillery modernisation participating in the deliberations. One of the most futuristic presentations was made by the DRDO representative Dr SV Gade, who spoke about the artillery gun being developed by his organisation for the

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should be addressed if we wish to ensure that our force build up acquires the requisite momentum. Ever since the nuclear tests of 1998 by India and Pakistan, two dangerous ideas are being frequently tossed around in various forums: the notion of ‘limited wars’ and the devaluation of conventional forces due to nuclear weapons. Surprisingly, after the Kargil War the theory of limited wars gathered some more momentum. Little did the proponents realise that the corollary of the idea of limited wars was ‘limited capability’. Consequently, there is a reason to suspect that the slow pace of modernisation evident in the last decade could well be due to the haze generated by these two notions. It is vital that the military leadership does its utmost to disabuse the nation’s leadership of such ideas. In some way or the other all wars fought by mankind have been limited and so have resources for force structuring. The point is that till we have border/ territorial disputes with our neighbours, we cannot take a complacent view of conventional military capabilities. A powerful conventional military force, which can at once dissuade and deter our adversaries, has to be maintained; otherwise we shall be placing in jeopardy Indian Army. It is a 52 caliber gun, for which a feasibility test was done and it was realised that the gun could have the maximum range up to 60km with proper VLAP ammunition (a specialised rocket motor technology). According to Dr Gade, the 25 litre gun barrel is going to be of titanium alloy and would be able to fire 3/5 rounds in automatic fire mode. The gun is expected to have a muzzle velocity of 1030m/s. The gun will have soft recoil because of the compact recoil system. The gun system will have a diesel-powered auxillary power unit of 95 kw and a high compact battery. The gun system will have optronic stabilized sight system for direct line of sight target acquisition up to 10 km range. It will be fully supported by a suitable communication system and DRDO is looking to incorporate softwaredefined radio for frequency hopping and secure communication. Interestingly, the DRDO is looking for the support of a defence manufacturer in developing the coating for the gun barrel. August 2012


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ARMY.MIL

ONE SHOT ONE KILL: Precision-guided munitions like the Excalibur can engage targets without collateral damage

our national security. If we were to look at the artillery profile beyond 2017, two aspects merit a deeper examination. First is the mix of weapons to include guns, rockets and missiles. The basic gun is now not an issue with the decision to accept the 155 mm 52 caliber as the standard system. But what should our rocket and missile artillery philosophy be? This question requires greater debate. Should we be looking at a wider range of such systems? Our rocket artillery inventory is quite www.geopolitics.in

limited. Similarly, we do not have missiles with ranges that are lower than that of the Prithvi. Is there a case for more missile systems with ranges that are around 30 kms and beyond? If we induct a larger variety of missiles and rockets do we still need the same number of tube artillery systems? Should we be looking for a solid fuel-based variant of the Prithvi? If we were to comprehensively examine these issues we may arrive at an artillery profile different to what is currently on the drawing board.

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On the acquisition front, the news emanating from the Defence Ministry and the Artillery Headquarters (AHQ) in recent times has been quite reassuring. It seems the urgency to modernise the artillery has eventually been well recognised. Despite many impediments, the decision to acquire the 155 mm ultralight howitzers has been taken — coming after almost 25 years — a historic decision by all accounts. Measures to hasten up the induction of the 155 mm towed, mounted and selfpropelled guns are also being purposefully expedited. To bridge the unavoidable time taken in the decision-making and induction cycle, it is understood that concurrently projects are underway for interim procurements that would meet immediate and short-term requirements. For instance, some very heartening progress seems to have been made in the development of a 155mm 39 caliber gun based on the Bofors transfer of technology documents that we had paid for and it is likely that such guns may soon enter service. This effort merits recognition and praise. It is also learnt that there are some other similar projects in hand, with perhaps too many agencies pursuing identical missions. This could be wasteful. The 155 mm 45/52 caliber howitzer has reached almost its optimum performance levels. So we should select from whatever is now readily available in the market. Launching fresh development projects through multiple agencies can prove horribly in fructuous. Such resources could be better applied towards the development of appropriate missiles, rocket systems and munitions To conclude, the Army’s combat power accretion should be formulated objectively, without the prejudices of the arms to which the decision-makers belong or the biases of their lanyards. The quantity and quality of artillery required should be purely on the basis of the requirements of tomorrow’s battlefields and the impact that this arm can have. It is firmly believed that prudently planned and accelerated acquisitions can effectively redress the balance with our adversary in the North and North-East and also give us the punitive capability against our Western neighbour. (The author is a former Lt. General and was Director General of Artillery during the Kargil War) August 2012


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establishment. At least that’s what the Naresh Chandra Committee on national security has recommended. The idea is that the merger will help ease tensions and avoid needless turf battles. Although ARC is by and large an autonomous department, Secretary, RAW, has a critical role to play as head of security. The ARC fleet includes eight aircraft with high-resolution cameras and other critical eavesdropping and photography instruments. The fleet is also equipped with several choppers. Established post the Sino-Indian war in 1962, ARC has slowly but steadily expanded its role over the decades. The Naresh Chandra Committee report was submitted to the government a few weeks ago. The former Cabinet Secretary and Indian Ambassador to the United States is also believed to have briefed the National Security Council headed by the Prime Minister on the recommendations, which are now under review. At the core of the Naresh Chandra committee report are turf battles and how to resolve them. Apart from the ARC, there is also the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO). The NTRO was born post-Kargil and does something akin to the ARC. One of the recommendations of the committee includes the appointment of a National Intelligence Advisor in the National Intelligence Board, who can ensure that there are no turf battles.

BSF

RAW AND ARC are likely to be merged. Don’t be surprised. What it means is that Aviation Research Centre (ARC that operates a fleet of aircraft for snooping missions) may end up as part of the RAW

FLOODS IN the north-east have played havoc with the (BSF) border outposts (BOPs) of the Border Security Force on the frontier with Bangladesh. The BSF has now been forced to operate from boats as its BOPs have been washed away. The BOPs have been severely hit by the flooding and were under four to six feet-deep water. Masalabari Char, considered one of the most important posts of the BSF in Assam, has also been severely affected by the floods. Other BOPs, including Chowki Char, Ghaspara and Salapara, have also been severely eroded.

CYBER CELL TO INVESTIGATE ‘HACKTIVIST’ GROUPS TAMIL NADU’S investigating Cyber Cell group is the EN.ISNHOTNEWS.COM

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hacking of its website by ‘hacktivist’ group Anonymous. The breach of the site is being investigated by the National Informatics Centre, which maintains the Tamil Nadu police website. Anonymous had attacked the site as part of its campaign against denial of access to certain websites by internet service providers in pursuance of a copyright violation suit.

FOREX AGENCIES IN FAKE NOTES SCAM AN INQUIRY by the police has revealed a new modus operan di used by counterfeit currency

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racketeers. New players in the counterfeit notes scam, hand in glove with terror outfits, have emerged, making use of international money exchange agencies to circulate fake currency. Gulf nations such as Kuwait and Dubai

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are locations where such forex agencies are located. According to the police, terrorist groups also have a huge stake in pushing in the counterfeit notes into India. A bigger investigation into the different elements involved in the circulation of such currency around the world is in the offing. August 2012


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THE TOP officials of the Pakistan Rangers and Border Security Force (BSF) held four days of talks in New Delhi in early July to sort out a host of border-related issues including instances of ceasefire violation along the Indo-Pak frontier. An 18-member Pakistani delegation, comprising officials of the border force and the Interior Ministry, led by Pakistan Rangers Director General (Sindh) Maj Gen Rizwan Akhtar, was accorded a ceremonial guard of honour by a BSF contingent at the BSF headquarters in Delhi. The BSF team was led by BSF Director General UK Bansal. This was the first time that the two borderguarding forces met in Delhi, where they discussed a variety of issues including recent incidents of firing and ceasefire violations by Pakistan along the Indo-Pak border. Both sides agreed to step up their border domination to prevent smuggling and in order to establish a peaceful and tranquil border, they agreed to hand over and take over border crossers with least possible delay and take adequate measures to prevent violation of the border by their respective citizens.

BIHAR GETS CRIMINAL DATABASE

COGNIZANCE of the TAKING

www.geopolitics.in

EYE ON VITAL CHOKEPOINT

ACCORDING TO Kolkata’s The Telegraph, India will soon have an observation post near the Straits of Malacca, the sea lane through which 25 per cent of the world’s trade is transported on ships. Called Baaz (hawk) it is to be a major point from which India can project itself in the region. The implication of Baaz is immense as it provides a vantage point over the Straits of Malacca and comes after the recent assertion by US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta that the US military was “re-balancing” to the Asia-Pacific. Closer to Indonesia than it is to the Indian mainland, Baaz is being developed to be capable of operating fighter jets and troop-carrying transport aircraft.

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protests put up by the states over the settingup of the controversial National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), a revised Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA) draft created for the same suggests that it will work under the supervision of the Intelligence Bureau (IB). The states have resisted the creation of the NCTC, as they were under the impression that it would undermine their say in the law and order situation and compromise the federal structure of the government. Conceding to the states’ demand of being equal partners while conducting operations, according to the new draft, the operations will be conducted jointly by the NCTC officials and state police.

IN A bid to check crime in the state, the Bihar Cabinet has given its approval for a database of criminals operating in the state. A sum of Rs 60 crore for the preparation of the database has been allocated in the current financial year with the Centre and state governments bearing `50 crore and `10 crore, respectively for the project. According to senior Bihar officials, a database would be prepared, according to the Union Home Ministry’s crime and criminal tracking network and systems scheme, at a cost of `74.2 crore over a period of two years. `240.60 crore has also been sanctioned for the construction of buildings for police stations and outposts in the state.

JUNDAL’S REVELATIONS

SAYED ZABIUDDIN alias Abu Jundal, a prize catch in the 26/11 terror case, was first trained in 2004 in Nepal! The Beed, Maharashtra native along with four persons left for Nepal where they were instructed in the use of arms and creation of improvised explosive devices (IED). According to reports, Abu Jundal has confessed to interrogators

VICKYNANJAPPA.COM

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HEMANT RAWAT

STATES WIN THIS ROUND

B R I E F S IS

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that after the 26/11 Mumbai attacks, the LeT had chosen Nashik Police Academy, a state-level training institution for Maharashtra Police personnel, as a possible terror target. The attack on the location was based on the attack on the police training academy in Lahore in 2009 where militants shot and killed instructors and trainees before being killed by Pakistani troops. August 2012


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UPGRADING WEAPONRY Weapons like the AK-47 are being procured to increase the firepower of the paramilitaries

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Careful employment of new weapons coupled with discipline will certainly help the paramilitary forces combat extremists of various hues, writes SAURAV JHA

August 2012


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SMALL ARMS ARSENAL: (from top to bottom) A CRPF soldier with the AK-47, an SPG commado with FN P90, Delhi police commando with HK MP5, NSG men with the Sig Sauer 551 and MP5 www.geopolitics.in

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HC TIWARI HC TIWARI

including the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), the Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) and the Into-Tibetan Border Police (ITTBP). The designs being purchased include Arsenal AD’s AR -M7 — an all-polymer, heavier version of the AKM with a folding stock, luminous sights and a much higher muzzle velocity and, perhaps, the AR-M9 — an AKM copy with black polymer lining. In the past, other variants of Arsenal’s AR line with folding buttstocks and rails for mounting sights have been procured. All Arsenal AR rifles being bought have the same calibre as the basic AK47/AKM i.e 7.62 x 39 mm although NATO standard 5.56 mm x 45 rifles with the same working mechanism as an AKM are also available. Nevertheless, the desire to keep bringing in 7.62 mm for counter-insurgency operations shows that the paramilitary forces continue to value ‘high stopping power’ even while sacrificing accuracy, since these rifles are certainly not known for precision. Although out to 300-400 metres, they are reasonably accurate in the hands of experienced soldiers, but sometimes the paramilitary forces want to put down fanatical insurgents as quickly as possible, especially at close range in the event of an ambush. This is where the 7.62 mm’s stopping power comes into play. On the other hand, even as the paramilitary forces augment their existing inventories of Soviet-origin rifles, they are also bringing in much more accurate and modern NATO standard weapons (i.e. in terms of the calibre of ammunition they use) including variants of the Israeli Weapon Industries (IWI) Tavor family and even the rather expensive Sig Sauer assault rifles. This trend is probably the result of the fact that security forces are also increasingly cognizant of the need to keep collateral damage to a minimum. So, while the AK-47/AKMs serve as backups in difficult situations, these highly precise rifles provide that xfactor to security forces in longer range engagements. Moreover, the 5.56-mm bullet fired by these rifles is known to have a higher probability of wounding rather than stopping towards the higher end of the engagement envelope. This can come in useful when engaging Maoists because they are known to not

HC TIWARI

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HE BUSINESS of homeland security in India often reduces to infantry style combat between various paramilitary forces and insurgents in a wide diversity of environments. While advances in intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, certainly help and provide an edge to the Indian state apparatus to locate and mitigate terrorist threats, any potent counter-insurgency posture has to also ensure that Indian troopers have a firepower advantage in contact battles. Now, given that insurgents themselves have been upgrading their small arms capability over time, it is worthwhile to find out what the paramilitary forces are planning to induct in their arsenals to ensure that they have an edge in any firefight. These new weapons are also reflective of the rise of specialist formations and operators in India’s paramilitary units. At any given time, Indian paramilitary forces face heavily armed and motivated insurgent groups in varied terrains in different parts of the country. At the best of times, Indian operating environments take a heavy toll on the availability rates of small arms. Unlike their opponents, paramilitary forces don’t just rely on ambush tactics and intermittent attacks. The job of the paramilitary involves extensive patrolling and so-called ‘area domination’ exercises which require round-the-clock movements and heavy duty deployment. A premium, therefore, is put on weaponreliability given the heat, dust and, indeed, rain of India. No wonder, therefore, that the preferred weapon for patrolmen continue to be derivatives of the AKM, the 1950s improved version of the AK-47 and the AK47 itself. Indeed, modernised versions of the AKM and AK-47 are also the mainstay of imports. Almost 30,000 new units of the AK series rifles are being imported by various paramilitary forces this year. The supplier is Bulgarian major Arsenal AD, that has, over the years, produced more developed versions of the AKM. One would note that India has traditionally imported small arms from Eastern Europe especially Bulgaria rather than look to Russia, which is often the originator of the design being procured. Be that as it may, the recipients of Arsenal AD’s wares this year are almost the entire gamut of the paramilitary forces,

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OVERWHELMING FIREPOWER: The CRPF is being progressively armed with modern weaponry to ensure victory over the Maoists

leave their fallen behind. A wounded Maoist insurgent can, therefore, become a liability to the other Maoists in a firefight. Of course, at closer ranges even the 5.56 mm is quite lethal. The idea, therefore, seems to have a mix of reliable and accurate weapons. The chief 5.56 x 45 mm firing rifle being inducted is of course the IWI Tavor TAR-21, although the variant receiving the greatest preference is the MicroTavor MTAR-21 (also called the X95). This extremely compact weapon, the TAR-21 provides rifle muzzle velocity with carbine length afforded by its bullpup. This compactness helps in minimising the silhouette of soldiers maximising effectiveness while turning corners in enclosed spaces. Almost 12,000 X95s are being procured for the CRPF’s CoBRA battalions. Their accuracy is enhanced by the fact that these rifles accept a range of targeting sights including ITL’s MARS and the Trijicon ACOG. They can be expected to give CoBRA an edge vis-a-vis the Maoists, in situations where the latter use human shields. The other modern assault rifle being brought is the SIG-551, also chambered for NATO 5.56 x 45 mm. The SIG-551 is regarded by some as one of the finest rifles ever made and its price certainly seems to reflect that. While about 700 pieces of this rifle, that boasts of good ergonomics and versatility in terms of magazine size, are already on order for the National Security Guards, small numbers are likely to be procured by the paramilitary forces as well. A noteworthy fact about the entire range of rifle procurements is that the CRPF in particular is also looking to bring in 40 mm under-barrel grenade launchers (UBGL) compatible with each of these designs. UBGLs are extremely useful for destroying single or group targets in an www.geopolitics.in

open area and for neutralising trenches and light shelters of the type typically built by insurgents. Mass inductions of UBGLs will certainly go a long way to provide firepower overmatch to the security forces and in countering ambushes. Concurrently, multi-barrel grenade launchers of 40mm caliber are also being inducted by the paramilitary and these are likely to be variants of the South African Milkor produced by the Ordnance Factory Board. A variety of rounds, both lethal and non-lethal, can

PARAMILITARY FORCES ARE BEGINNING TO RESEMBLE THE ARMY’S INFANTRY UNITS be fired by these weapons, and they can be useful for both crowd control, and for stopping soft-skinned vehicles. Specialised Close Quarter Battles (CQB) weapons such as the well-established MP5 family, chambered for 9 x 19 mm parabellum round are also being purchased. It seems that the CRPF wants at least 10 per cent of any battalion to be armed with MP5s if the need arises. Commensurate numbers are, therefore, sought to being procured. The MP-5 family is, of course, the staple for anybody in the ‘room clearance role’ and is indicative of the fact that paramilitary forces are also preparing themselves to conduct special operations including, perhaps, hostage rescue in built-up areas. This would also mean that new kinds of training may be imparted to selected members within any battalion.

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One specialised role that is certainly seeing growth within paramilitary units is that of the designated marksman. This is evident from the way in which both medium-calibre and heavy-calibre sniper rifles are being sought by different paramilitary formations. The ITBP, for instance, wants 7.62 x 51 mm chambered rifles such as the Galil and the Steyr SSG 69 for the designated marksman’s role within regular units. Heavier-calibre rifles chambered for the 12.7 x 99 mm round may be on the wish list of the CRPF. These rifles are likely to be used by some members of CoBRA units with a specialised sniper portfolio. Typically, such snipers may even operate detached from units for eliminating Maoists in ambush mode. Heading into the second decade of the 21st century, we find Indian paramilitary forces beginning to resemble smaller versions of the Army’s infantry units in terms of both armament and structure. This is, of course, not surprising, given that just about any separatist movement in India is also a violent one. The path towards increasing militarisation of the paramilitary should also take into account the need to upgrade training and tactics in consonance with greater budgets for procuring state-of-the-art weapons. Moreover, careful employment of new weapons coupled with discipline will certainly give the security forces an edge in combating extremists of various hues. It will also ensure that such weapons do not end up in the hands of those whom they are supposed to liquidate. Unfortunately, however, the Union Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), which controls the paramilitary forces, often fails in meeting their expectations. So far, in the year 2012, not a single decision has been taken to procure new arms for the paramilitary, the MHA’s standard response being that “requests are under process”. August 2012



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While dealing with the Maoists, there is a vital need for “Appropriate Technology”, argues DM (JOHN) MITRA

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AOISTS HAVE thrived in inaccessible areas inhabited by isolated populations, where they have found a suitable niche to base their armed rebellion. If the State wants to deny the niche to the rebels, it needs technology and products appropriate for such areas and their inhabitants, and not what is unsuitable and readily available in the market. It has been empirically established by the author in his monograph (2007) titled “Understanding Indian Insurgencies” that it is not only Maoist violence but also all armed rebellions/insurgencies in India that have thrived in inaccessible areas inhabited by isolated populations. Former colonies like India could not industrialise when the First World had been industrialising for more than 200 years. Industrialisation stimulated massive migration of the population from the hinterlands and country-side to urban industrial areas in the First World. Today, 80 per cent of the population of the First World live in urban areas, whereas 70 per cent population of India live in rural areas, including the inaccessible areas. Similarly, the level of technology throughout India is not uniform like that in the First World countries, but it goes down steadily as you go from urban to rural areas in India. Maoist-affected areas are country’s most inaccessible, remote and technologically-backward www.geopolitics.in

areas with an isolated population. These inaccessible areas and isolated populations are mostly located around geological fault areas. We have forests

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mostly in hilly areas with about 77 per cent of forests in areas having average slopes more than 45 degrees, which is about one-third of the country. It so

August 2012


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g INTERNALSECURITY happens, mineral deposits are normally found near geological faults. Therefore, it is no coincidence that we have most of our mines in these inaccessible forest areas. However, being mineral-rich does not make these areas developed or the population living in these areas affluent. On the contrary, only mining and heavy industries tend to be located in those inaccessible areas, which do not necessarily either contribute to the overall development of the areas or quality of lives of the people living there. Therefore, the technological standards of the people living in these areas, their average income and educational level tend to be very low. Inaccessibility, low population density and lack of education have kept the people of these areas isolated from the democratic and economic opportunities available in the rest of the country. Government offices are very thinly spread over vast areas due to a lack of density of population and economic activities in these areas, which combine with the general inaccessibility of these areas making them almost un-administered. The weak presence of the government in

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these areas has provided Maoists and other armed rebels a suitable niche to establish their bases. Without a reasonable sense of security, democracy, development or good governance cannot be made available to the inhabitants of an area. On the other hand, reasonable security is only a precondition, while democracy, development and good governance are the solution. The so-called “Red Corridor� has clusters of core areas, where the State is struggling to restore the precondition, surrounded by non-core areas where the State is trying to improve democracy and governance through development to deny the niche to the Maoists. This is similar to villagers directly fighting a raging fire in the village, while dousing other thatched houses to prevent further spread of the fire. During a study by the author for the Bureau of Police Research & Development in 2009-10, it was estimated that curative security action needs to be taken against the Maoists to establish security preconditions in about 16 per cent of the so-called Red Corridor, while preventive actions like improvement of governance, development of infrastructure and creation of

CUSTOMISED SECURITY SOLUTIONS: What is appropriate for confronting an external enemy across borders is not ideal for fighting left-wing insurgents inside the country

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democratic opportunities through education, medical facilities, etc. are to be done in all the vulnerable areas including the areas adjoining the core areas (about 84 per cent of the so-called Red Corridor plus all areas having similar geographic and social conditions). According to the study, the following are the main options available to the liberal democratic State for controlling Maoist violence. First, democratic political space should be made available to people living in affected and vulnerable areas, increasing accessibility and education. Second, the development initiatives for these areas need to be both inclusive and appropriate. The reasons for the above two prescriptions are discussed in the subsequent paragraphs. Third, the State has to fight the Maoists where the State’s monopoly on use of force is being challenged by the Maoists. Fourth, the State needs to adhere to observance of human rights while taking both developmental initiatives and security action. Lastly, the State needs to offer escape routes to those who want to shun their violent path. This can be done through dialogues and surrender policies. Except for the last option of the escape route, all the other options demand appropriate technology. The first and second options are available in areas where Maoist violence is not high enough to deter government departments from taking developmental initiatives, which are essential for creating democratic political space and democratic opportunities for the inhabitants of the affected areas. However, the development strategy cannot be simply area development without keeping in mind the needs of the people living there, because for a liberal democracy what is most important are people. Maoists also target the people living in these areas as, according to Mao, a revolutionary is like a fish while the people are like water. Therefore, the developmental strategy should include the empowerment, welfare, stake and interest of the local inhabitants. As the inhabitants have a very low level of technology, financial power and capacity to absorb technology, all solutions for them have to be appropriate for them. For example, there is no point trying to introduce mechanised agricultural tools to increase their productivity. First, the area does not have the infrastructure August 2012


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and technical knowhow to support such tools. For example, they do not have support for maintenance, power supply or fuel supply for tractors, power haulers or sprinklers. Second, most of these tools are not meant for the undulated land of these areas. Third, all types of irrigation are difficult and expensive for these areas and most modern agricultural tools presume assured and timely water supply. Fourth, almost all the inhabitants are subsistence farmers with small landholdings and no surplus labour during the agriculture season. Last, the poor people will readily accept if easy loans are given to them but will become even poorer as they may not be able to use the loan properly given the factors described above. This has been seen in case of supply of even highly subsidised oxen to plough in areas where they plough by hand. However, simple, inexpensive and appropriate tools and methods can help the inhabitants increase their productivity and prepare them for higher technology. Such equipment are not necessarily products of low level of technology. For example, a shaving razor may be inexpensive and easy to use but it can be a product of sophisticated technology. The third option needs to be adopted where the level of Maoist violence is such that State agencies are not able to function properly. In this case also, the terrain and infrastructure of these areas demand appropriate security action. What is applicable to plain areas, where www.geopolitics.in

one is able to see long distances, is not applicable to these areas where visibility is highly restricted by thick forest. Similarly, what is appropriate for confronting an external enemy across the border is not appropriate for fighting insurgents hiding among innocent citizens inside the country. Therefore, area weapons, weapons meant for large formations, vehicles meant for plain areas and equipment suitable for large formations are not suitable for security operations in Maoist-affected areas. Often innovations and research and development (R&D) are necessary for providing suitable products to security forces operating in these areas. The fourth option also demands appropriate technology. Often, allegations of human rights violations are made against security forces due to faulty equipment and wherewithal available with the security forces. For example, in the absence of nonlethal weapons, police often uses long-range rifles to control violent crowds. The resultant deaths and collateral damage understandably show the police in poor light. Whether constructing roads, Panchayat Bhawans, school buildings or other infrastructure, which directly benefit the local inhabitants of the affected areas, or constructing police buildings and other infrastructure for strengthening security apparatus in the area, government agencies and contractors are repeatedly harassed by Maoists, often

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leading to abandonment of work. Therefore, traditional time-taking and manpower-dependent methods in such situations have to be replaced with more innovative methods like pre-fabrication. Whether making products for developmental work or for security forces or strengthening security infrastructure for these areas, such products are not necessarily products of low level of technology, but should be appropriate, and not what is unsuitable and readily available in the market. Thus, we see Maoists have thrived in inaccessible areas inhabited by isolated populations, where technological standards of the inhabitants, infrastructural facilities available to them, their average income and their educational level tend to be very low. The weak presence of the government coupled with the availability of poor and isolated population in these areas has provided Maoists suitable niche to establish their bases. When it tries to deny the niche to the rebels by making products for developmental work or for security forces or strengthening the security infrastructure of these areas, the State needs technology and products appropriate for such areas and its inhabitants and not what is readily available in the market and often unsuitable for such areas. (DM Mitra, is an Additional DGP in Madhya Pradesh, posted as Officer on Special Duty for Security and Coordination at New Delhi) August 2012


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VICTORIOUS What is the India agenda of the new French President Hollande?


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DIPLOMACY Bhutan is sandwiched between India and China (Tibet). Although culturally the Bhutanese are much closer to the Tibetans — the languages are similar, the versions of Buddhism are similar — Bhutan, so far, has thrown in its lot with India and has very little to do with China. YAMINI CHOWDHURY discusses whether things are going to change

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THE LAST SHANGRI-LA’S EMERGING CHOICES

N 1778, King Prithvi Narayan Shah described Nepal, a landlocked country, strategically located between India and China, as a “delicate yam between two boulders”. More than two hundred years after this metaphorical expression gained prominence, researchers in Bhutan, like Dorji Penjore from the Centre for Bhutan Studies, used it to chronicle the predicament faced by their small but geo-strategically significant country. Like Nepal, Bhutan too is bounded by two competing Asian giants — China and India. But Bhutan shares diplomatic ties with only India. Against this background, something interesting happened on the sidelines of the recently-concluded Rio+20 summit in Brazil, where a meeting of historic significance took place between the Prime Minister of Bhutan, Jigme Y Thinley and the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao. The Chinese media quoted their Premier as saying, “China is willing... to establish formal relations with Bhutan, resolve the border issue between the two nations at an early

AGE-OLD PARTNERSHIP: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh meeting the King of Bhutan, Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck, on the sidelines of SAARC Summit, in Thimphu, Bhutan, on April 29, 2010

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g DIPLOMACY date, strengthen exchanges in all areas and advance Sino-Bhutanese relations to a new stage”. But Dr Medha Bisht, Associate Fellow at Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, dismisses the media hype on issue as too random. She says, “While it is true that the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao and his Bhutanese counterpart Jigme Y Thinley expressed willingness to establish full diplomatic ties, one also needs to take note of the fact that the Kuensel (Bhutan’s official daily) was silent on the issue. Meanwhile, another popular newspaper, The Bhutanese, mentioned a press release issued by the Prime Minister’s Office, which clarified that the ‘local Chinese media had misreported that Bhutan and China will establish diplomatic ties’”. Despite the conflicting reports, there is no doubt that the first-ever meeting of its kind between leaders of nations that till now shared little more than a protracted dialogue over unresolved border disputes, is of seminal importance and raises some very significant questions, not only for China and Bhutan, but also for India. What are the strategic implications of advancement in Sino-Bhutanese ties? Will this embryonic bilateral relationship cause a shift in the fulcrum of power in the region? Will it be able to spawn transformative changes in the foreseeable future? Illustration of friendship in the south The Perpetual Peace and Friendship Agreement signed between Jawaharlal Nehru and King Jigme Dorji Wangchuck in 1949 laid the foundation for longstanding bilateral ties between India and Bhutan. Dr Sreeradha Datta, Director, Maulana Abul Kalam Azad Institute of Asian Studies (MAKAIAS) believes that it was a convergence of a number of political and economic factors, in addition to Bhutan’s very crucial geostrategic location that enabled this relationship to acquire greater substance. This stable bilateral relationship was marked by India’s massive economic assistance and guidance to Bhutan in strategic and military affairs. India’s heavy investments in the Himalayan kingdom were instrumental in the development of roads, communication networks, mineral resources and major infrastructure projects like the Paro airport. Since 1961, India has extended financial assistance to Bhutan’s Five Year Plans (FYP). This committed assistance, which forms the core of the economic linkages, amounts to `3400 crore during www.geopolitics.in

the 10th FYP (2008-2013). Dr Dibyesh Anand, Associate Professor of International Relations at Westminster University believes: “The total stoppage of Bhutan-Tibet trade due to the Chinese takeover of Tibet and tensions in IndiaChina relations in late 1950s is a reason for India’s close economic links with India. But then, it was for the sake of friendship with India, rather than a credible threat from China, that Bhutan gave up its vital links with Tibet in the 1950s. In that sense, Indian assistance to Bhutan should be seen as a well-deserved compensation.” But India’s relationship with Bhutan extends beyond the economic realm, as pointed out by Balaji Chandramohan Editor, Asia for World Security Network. “In recent times, India and Bhutan have cooperated in counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency mechanisms, which have been mutually beneficial. Further, they

INDIA'S RELATIONSHIP WITH BHUTAN EXTENDS BEYOND THE ECONOMIC REALM have explored the immense scope for bilateral trade and co-operation in energy sectors. When Bhutan decided to choose the transition path to democracy from 2008, India stood by it and helped it have a stable government”, articulates Balaji. According to CV Ranganathan, former Indian Ambassador to China, “IndoBhutan relations have for decades been based on deep mutual respect for the interests of the other country. India has welcomed the growth of democratic governance in Bhutan, all the more remarkable because this growth has been inspired from the rulers in anticipation of popular urges.” Reality of unresolved disputes In stark contrast, Bhutan’s relations with China have been characterised by unresolved border disputes along the 470-kilometre-long stretch of land that Bhutan shares with China. Bhutan enjoyed vibrant trade relations with Tibet, but this

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centuries-old cross-border contact came to an end when the massive exodus of Tibetan refugees, following the Dalai Lama’s journey to exile in India in 1959, forced Bhutan to seal its borders with Tibet. Elucidating the complex nature of Sino-Bhutan relations, Dr Surjit Mansingh, Adjunct Professor at the School of International Service, American University, Washington, states, “China has consistently refused to discuss the disputed Bhutan-China border with India. Even in the official talks of 1960, China denounced the Indo-Bhutan Treaty of 1949 as ‘unequal’, and held out the hope of generosity — as with Nepal — if Bhutan negotiated independently.” The only agreement between the two neighbours — Bhutan-China Agreement on Maintenance of Peace and Tranquility along the Sino-Bhutanese Border Areas was signed in 1998, under which both sides agreed to the “five principles of mutual respect for each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, mutual nonaggression, mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs and peaceful co-existence”. “But despite 19 rounds of inconclusive Bhutan-China border talks, the last one conducted in 2010, China regularly violates the traditional border,” highlights Dr Mansingh. But the 21st century could see the dawn of a new relationship between a communist China and a deeply religious Bhutan. Dr Srikanth Kondapalli, Professor in Chinese Studies and Chairman Centre for East Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, points out that China’s new intensity of bilateral engagement may be guided by both strategic and economic imperatives. “Bhutan is the only country among China’s 14 land neighbours with which it does not have any diplomatic ties. Efforts to forge ties with Bhutan in 1998 by the Chinese Foreign Minister, Tang Jiaxuan did not acquire traction owing to the Himalayan Kingdom’s strong relations with India and frosty Sino-India ties. But as China’s global clout rises, there is acceptance of the fact that such a parochial approach would be inimical to Beijing’s ascent, and efforts must be made to convert neighbouring states into allies and friends. Some members of China’s strategic community insist that China must extend all forms of economic, technical and strategic cooperation to Bhutan in order to balance India’s aspirations in South Asia,” he avers. August 2012


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NEW-FOUND AMITY: Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao meeting his Bhutanese counterpart, Jigmi Y Thinley, in Rio de Janeiro on June 21, 2012

Dr Kondapalli believes that the policy of economic interdependence, as articulated by the Chinese government’s 10th Five Year Plan, which aims to speed up infrastructural development in the western areas of Xinjiang and Tibet, is also a key driver of China’s foreign policy virility. “The Western Development Programme would be instrumental in opening up the trans-Himalayan region, which includes Bhutan, Nepal and Myanmar, and would pave the way for enhanced economic cooperation and attendant prosperity of the restive ethnic minorities of the western regions. For Bhutan too, it is an opportunity to make advances on a broad front,” emphasises Dr Kondapalli. Implications for India Is there really any reason for India to be concerned about the shift in Bhutan’s stance? Professor Anand believes that given the far from stable or consistently friendly relations that India has with all its other neighbours in South Asia, it cannot afford to antagonise the Bhutanese. “Bhutan is the only country in the region that India can be confident about in terms of stable, friendly relations. However, India needs to realise that friendship and paternalism do not go together. Bhutan www.geopolitics.in

has the right to develop independent and good neighbourly relations with other countries. If India becomes paranoid or over-possessive about Bhutan, it would only antagonise the Bhutanese. Bhutan too should not be over cautious and go on with an assertion of its international identity so long as it assures India that the move is not anti-India”, he concludes. Professor Madhav Das Nalapat, UNESCO Peace Chair at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations at Manipal University, believes that it is unlikely that South Block would look kindly on a deepening of the PRC presence in Bhutan. “Bhutan is core to the security interests of India across the Himalayas. Since the 1990s, Delhi has steadily lost ground to Beijing in retaining primacy among foreign partners of Nepal. Should Bhutan follow a similar trajectory, the position of India regionally would be diminished. This could be a distinct possibility, given the declining economic strength of India of late and New Delhi’s reluctance to fully deploy and leverage the across-the-board strengths of India, a country where policy is still overwhelmingly based on government-to-government contacts”, he maintains. India’s direct link to the Sino-Bhutanese

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territorial dispute only exacerbates matters. Dr Kondapalli explains, “The boundary dispute between China and Bhutan extends to four areas in the western sector — Doklam, Charithang, Sinchulumpa and Dramana pastureland. If Bhutan agrees to give up its claim in these north-western areas in exchange for gains in the central and southwestern areas, it would bring the Chinese closer to the Chumbi valley, an important tri-junction between Bhutan, India, essentially Sikkim, and China. Such a settlement would have massive strategic and military repercussions for India.” Strategic experts in China, however, insist that Indians must stop ‘over-reacting’ to reports of normalisation of ties between China and Bhutan. “Even though China-Bhutan relations will be a test ball for the real nature of China-India ties, it would be foolish if the Chinese saw any geopolitical potential in Bhutan, a small, quiet and religious state. There is no reason to believe that the southern downhill areas of Mount Everest are any place of ‘geopolitics’. China’s only concern remains Tibet,” insists Dr Zhu Feng, Professor, School of International Studies and Deputy Director of the Centre for International & Strategic Studies at Peking University. However, Bhutanese scholars will not like Bhutan to be a geopolitical pawn. Dasho Karma Ura, President of the Centre for Bhutan Studies says, “Like any nationstate which is in the process of globalisation, Bhutan too will cautiously increase its network of relationships. But, as evident from its foreign policy history, Bhutan is not in favour of any geopolitical role-playing between two powers. Bhutan will forego short-term, economicallyviable relations in favour of stability and security, which remain first priorities”, he asserts, adding India will remain “the principal source of Bhutan’s strength and comfort”. Kinzang Dorji, Charges d’affaires at the Royal Bhutanese Embassy in New Delhi says, “India-Bhutan relations are based on complete trust, understanding and mutually beneficial cooperation and represent an outstanding example of friendship between a very large and powerful country and a small friendly neighbour. We will continue to march forward as close friends in the increasingly globalised world of the 21st century.” (The author is a Delhi-based journalist) August 2012



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RETURN OF THE

SOCIALISTS France has a new Socialist President and a new Socialist-controlled Parliament. MAX-JEAN ZINS discusses the domestic and European implications of this development

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FTER MORE than a year of intense political games that started in October 2011 when the Socialist Party (SP) started to organise its internal “primaire” elections to select its presidential candidate, France now has a new team of Socialist leaders who can pretend to give stability to the country, the fifth or sixth biggest world power, for the next five years. The SP will rule with the support of its allies, the Ecologists. In fact, since 1958, no French President has had such an ideal combination of factors. François Hollande, elected on May 20, 2012, will govern France from the Elysée Palace. A few days after his election, the French voters, gave an absolute majority to the Socialist Party in the Legislative Assembly and a clear majority in the Senate. With the support of nearly all the elected Regional Councils, and the support of the majority of the elected councils in big cities, the François Hollande team is likely to have an easy run — at least politically. The sequence of four elections during May and June — two rounds of the Presidential election in May and two rounds of the National Assembly elections in June — brought the Socialists unprecedented success, since François www.geopolitics.in

Mitterand demitted office in 1995. In the first round of the presidential election in May, Hollande got 28.63 per cent of the votes against 27.18 per cent for Nicolas Sarkozy, the outgoing President supported by the UMP (Union of the Presidential Majority), the main party of the French right. Two weeks later, as the unique candidate of the left, Hollande was elected with 51.64 per cent of the

THE WAY HOLLANDE WILL RULE MAY NOT PROVE ITSELF VERY DIFFERENT FROM SARKOZY’S TENURE votes as against 48.36 per cent for Sarkozy. In June, the SP got 29.35 per cent of the votes in the first round of the National Assembly elections as against 27.12 per cent for the UMP. And in the second pool, the Socialists were able to gather the leftist voters around their

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candidates and got better than the UMP, thanks to the division of the French rightist electorate, a large part of them being attracted now by the racist and “securitarian” slogans of the Front National, an extreme rightist party. Nevertheless, two phenomena alter this rosy picture. The first one is the consequence of the distortion engendered by the mode of voting, which is less brutal than that in India or in the UK, but still important. With less than 30 per cent of the votes, the SP can still have an absolute majority of 296 seats (279 for the SP and 17 for its Ecologist allies) in the 577-member National Assembly. The Ecologists of the Vote Europe Ecologie — Les Verts Party (VEELL) — are the biggest beneficiaries of the electoral system as they have 17 seats with only 5.46 per cent of the votes, thanks to their electoral agreement with the SP. This has helped them in getting some ministers into the government. The two main victims of the system are the Front National (FN), the party of the extreme-right, and the Communists, who are part of the Left Front (LF), a party federating the French Communist Party and the Left Party of Jean-Luc Mélenchon. Marine Le Pen, the presidential candidate of the FN, August 2012


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LEFT-WING REVIVAL: With the support of nearly all the elected Regional Councils, François Hollande’s team is likely to have an easy run — at least politically

who had 17.9 per cent of the votes in the presidential elections but the FN, with 13.6 per cent in the National Assembly elections, has only three MPs. Mélenchon got 11.1 per cent in the presidential election, but the LF with 6.91 per cent in the National Assembly elections has only ten MPs. The Communist Party, which gained massively in terms of votes (their candidate had only 1.93 per cent in the former 2007 presidential election and 4.5 per cent in the 2007 National Assembly elections) lost around half a dozen MPs and has now only ten seats in the National Assembly. The Communists will have some difficulty in forming a political group in the assembly. In any case, the socialists did not need them to have a majority in the Assembly as Hollande does not need them to pursue his policies. As expected, he did invite the Communist to join his government. The second significant point to be noted is the rate of abstention in the National Assembly elections, unknown so far in a country as traditionally politicised as France. More than 44 per cent of the electorate decided not to cast their www.geopolitics.in

vote during the second round of the National Assembly elections. This rate was only 20.52 per cent and 19.65 per cent for the first and second rounds of the presidential election, respectively. It means clearly that for the French electorate, to elect the President is more important than electing the National Assembly. As the duration of mandates of the President of Republic and the MPs is the same (five years), people in France now tend to conceive the National Assembly election just as an afterthought after the presidential one. This is one reason for the electorate's lack of interest in the National Assembly elections. This can only add to the idea that the President is the only real leader of the nation and that the Prime Minister, responsible to the Assembly, is just his first “collaborator”, as Sarkozy once described his Prime Minister François Fillon. At this point, the way Hollande will rule may not prove itself very different from that of Sarkozy. There is, however, also another feature in the French abstention which is very revealing. According to a survey (Liberation, June 19), 41.1 per cent of the

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workers went to vote, as against 49 per cent amongst the employees and 59 per cent amongst the cadres. One could say that in France, like in the other western developed democracies, the poorer you are, the less you are likely to vote and the richer you are, you are more likely to vote. In India, it is presently the exact opposite, where the poor and the marginalised have displayed greater stake in the system. This phenomenon can explain why there was no explosion of joy amongst the people on the streets, barring a few demonstrations here and there, after the declaration of the results on the night of the election of Hollande. There was absolutely no demonstration at all after the result of the legislative elections. According to this survey, only 37 per cent of people aged between 18 and 24 years old cast their vote, whereas 73 per cent of the people over 60 years went to vote. The French youth, it seems, is not really enthused about voting. What then could be the impact of these elections as far as the French policies, both internal and external, are concerned? The reading of the electoral promise is not very helpful in this regard, August 2012


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STRATEGIC ENGINE: The economic future of Europe will depend on the understanding between German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande

as its wording is very vague. If history is any indication, once elected, a French Socialist President deviates a lot from what he had promised during the electoral campaign. The case of former Socialist President François Mitterrand is a good example: elected in 1981 on the idea of big social reforms, he decided in 1983 to follow an “austerity policy” that led the Communist Party to leave the coalition-government. In any case, François Hollande never promised many things. On the contrary, he projected himself as a counter to the super-activist Sarkozy and defined himself as a “normal” President. What then is the “normality” in politics and in economics for him? In politics, it means less presidentialism, more recognition for the role of the opposition, for the role of the Judiciary (whose independence was attacked by his predecessor), and for the role of Parliament. The problem is that the presidential system has its own logic as the eyes of the public, the press, the administration, the Socialist Party, etc., are turned on the President. He is the sole man who is supposed to give the lead in all the aspects of political life, big and small. In the field of economic policy, François Hollande was known to be quite close to the ideas of Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the former President of the IMF, now involved in a sex scandal. Today, nobody www.geopolitics.in

seriously thinks that the French President will pursue a new or imaginative policy. The French Socialists are now basically Social-Democrats. The collapse of the French Communist Party (CPF) opened a large avenue for a “reform without a revolution” policy for them. One of the most interesting phenomena of the presidential electoral campaign was the rise of the Communist and the

ONCE ELECTED, FRENCH SOCIALIST PRESIDENTS DEVIATE FROM WHAT WAS PROMISED IN CAMPAIGNS Marxist ideas around the candidature of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who, like the CPF, is close to the Left in Greece. The SP is no doubt worried about this evolution and will have to take it into account and François Hollande may have an idea on this point, which can be summarised by the word “growth” (or croissance” in French). This, in turn, could have an impact on Europe.

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The people of Europe are actually facing the profound consequences of the crisis of the world capitalist system and the whole of Europe is actually in turmoil. Greece is at the forefront of the turmoil with the rise of its Left and Ultra Left. But tomorrow it can be France, Spain, Italy, or Portugal. François Hollande knows this. He does not want to derail the European Union, though he finds that the policies of Germany and its leader, Angela Merkel, are dangerously rigid on the concepts of “equilibrium”, “control of deficit” and “budget austerity”. He would like to propagate a new approach based on “growth”, an approach that answers the needs of the people and does not necessarily satisfy the present banking system. It is in this frame that the relationship between France and Germany has been under tension since the election of Hollande. But then, the Franco-German couple is the engine of the European Union. Thus, the debate between Merkel and Hollande is bound to have serious consequences. At the same time, the magnitude of the economic crisis should not be underestimated. For example, recently, the EU decided to offer 100 billion euros to Spain to recapitalise its banking system, which is in total crisis, despite the fact that the “doubtful” banking Spanish credits were more than 150 billion euros (Le Figaro Economie, June, 19). What purpose, then, will the European “generosity” serve and how will it help the conditions for the Spanish people? These are the kind of questions François Hollande has to answer with other leaders of Europe. As we know, before World War II, the capitalist world had a fabulous economist in Keynes, who helped it recover after the 1929 international economic crisis. At that time, Keynes was already thinking in terms of growth and injections of credits into the economy to help the system survive. In 2012, the crisis is much more serious than that in 1929 and there is no Keynes on the horizon — neither in the US, nor in Europe, nor in India and nor even amongst the economic advisers of the new French socialist President. (The author is Directeur de recherche, CNRS, Paris and Directeur, Indo-French Cooperation in Social Sciences Research, FMSH, Paris) August 2012



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IN FRANCE With France now under a Socialist regime, there are apprehensions that President Hollande, unlike his predecessor Sarkozy, will not accord India much importance. But such apprehensions could be misplaced, writes AJAY K MEHRA from Paris, after talking to a cross section of people in the French capital

T

HE MAY 6, 2012 presidential election in France led to the victory of the Socialist Party nominee François Gérard Georges Nicolas Hollande and defeat of President Nicolas Sarkozy, whose popularity kept dipping soon after he took over five years ago. In fact, it is widely believed that the French voted more against Sarkozy than for Hollande. Before he unveiled his election manifesto, Hollande’s style of politics and policy preferences — national and international — had been unknown. He had never held any ministerial position at any level However, as he took over, Hollande emerged as a methodical consensus-builder, in sharp contrast to the ‘hyperactive’ and ‘flashy’ Sarkozy. It was no wonder that in spite of rapid reform measures, Sarkozy was not able to win the hearts and minds of the French people and his popularity ratings never rose above 40 per cent. Obviously, Hollande has his task cut out to chart a new path in both domestic and international arenas. This presidential change in France has nonetheless raised some predictable concerns in India, primarily regarding the man himself. Admittedly,

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while François Hollande the leader is still being discovered by France, the Indian media has looked at him as an ‘evasive’ and ‘inexperienced’ person. Since his predecessor was able to win India over with his ability to forge direct contacts and make quick decisions during his first visit to New Delhi in 2008, expectations are high on Hollande taking the Indo-French relationship further from where Sarkozy left, apprehensions amongst the policy-makers and the media about his international inexperience notwithstanding. Significantly, he has led a party with a long international tradition for over ten years and was a very close associate of François Mitterrand, the first French Socialist President. Although he has never visited India — for that matter neither did Sarkozy before becoming the President — he has people like Martine Aubry in his entourage who are fascinated with and have had engagements with India. Through his rival in the party primaries, Hollande still has the option to utilise Aubry’s fascination for India. Former French Foreign Minister Hubert Vedrine, known worldwide as the French Kissinger, commented just before the election: “If François Hollande is elected, he will ‘behave more

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rationally, less impulsively [than his predecessor]’, in a word more ‘predictably’.” Using his South Asian regional initiative to peep into his emerging foreign policy on India, it can be surmised that he can undo some unpopular things and begin some new initiatives. François Hollande visited Kabul within three weeks of being elected and within ten days of being sworn in as the President. In an eventful visit, in a joint news conference with President Karzai, he declared that he had come to tell 2,000 French troops that “their task has come to an end in Afghanistan”. But he also stressed France’s ongoing cooperation with Afghanistan, saying he and Karzai had discussed details of their nations’ strategic partnership agreement. Two factors in this initiative deserve highlighting: first, his unilateral withdrawal of the French troops from Kabul working under the US and NATO leadership since 2001 shows both clarity of purpose and independence in foreign policy, which does not carry the baggage of the western alliances; and, second, it is akin to Charles de Gaulle’s withdrawal from the NATO in 1959. Hollande has displayed ‘difference’ from his predecessor and independence August 2012


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control over its economic and social development. The new socialist regime in Paris appears to have a vision similar to New Delhi’s. Naturally, both could be important partners. French Socialists have had a strong commitment to India. Lionel Jospin of the Socialist Party was the Prime Minister when the IndiaFrance strategic partnership began in 1998. Hollande

then was the undisputed leader of the party. Obviously, it was a party policy too, and he was part of it. As President he is likely to take the relationship further, because this partnership would be part of the vision of a multi-polar world in which India has begun to play a greater role. Hollande’s Afghanistan initiative indicates that geopolitically the two countries could develop a common strategy in this area that is distinct from the US view of the region. It is likely that in geopolitical terms, France will seek more than ever to enter into a dialogue with India on Afghanistan and other global issues. India has a longterm commitment to reconstruction of Afghanistan. The French President’s first international step after taking over office could provide India with the first step to build joint strategies in the South Asian region. For the French government under the Socialist leadership, India would be obviously closer to it ideologically than any other country in the region. Furthermore, there are various areas of agreement that have existed for some years — multipolarity, symbolised by the G20, India’s quest for a permanent seat in the UN Security Council, STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP: Expectations are high on Hollande taking the Indo-French relationship further from where Sarkozy left

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FRANÇOIS HOLLANDE/FLICKR

on the economic issues and the European front. He has given indications of triggering a dynamic and progressive management in dealing with the global and European crises. He is also acutely aware of the French economic priorities, where the unemployment rate at ten per cent is on a 12-year high. Combined with the crisis within the European Union (EU), it will take all his genius to manage the French economy. As a Socialist, Hollande believes in inclusive growth. Among Hollande’s top priorities is the European Constitution — which failed in 2005 — reflecting his institutional approach towards the EU. He has also underscored the need to return to balanced public finances with a growth policy to prevent the EU from plunging into recession and a return to nationalism. This view is increasingly shared by EU officials, including the European Central Bank. Since India too, is impacted by the Eurozone crisis as its banks are reluctant to lend abroad, it should see an opportunity in this power shift and take early initiatives to establish linkages to retrieve declining investments, as illustrated by the recent cancellation of the Peugeot car plant project in Gujarat. Hollande does not have double standards of denouncing competition from emerging countries, as being responsible for the current global crisis, and fuel chauvinism and racism first and then approach the same countries for contracts. He would be open to emerging economies such as India. Naturally, while India should expect positive moves from the new French government, it should not wait for Hollande to take the first step. A known pragmatist, he considers globalisation an inevitable phenomenon that can bring benefits to all, if regulated in a balanced manner. He believes that all have a stake in the open world of trade. He is aware of the impact of the ultra-liberal discourse on global economic imbalances that has created strong divisive inequalities in France, India or other such countries. Following welfare strategies such as MNREGA (Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act), food security, etc. in the era of globalisation, India knows well that each country or regional group must be able to maintain

August 2012


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CONVERGING INTERESTS: Hollande, seen here with Afghan President Hamid Karzai, seems to have a vision similar to New Delhi’s with regard to Afghanistan

containing international terrorism, the need for economic and financial regulations and the mutual interest in strengthening relations with the ASEAN. It would be worthwhile also to look at the new President’s team and the prospects they offer. Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault is relatively new to the national and international scenes. He has been a prominent Socialist of the country and has served as a Mayor (Nantes) and a member of the National Assembly. However, Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius was Prime Minister of his country during the Presidency of François Mitterrand. Having served as the Minister of Budget and then of Industry during 1981-84, he was appointed the Prime Minister by the President in 1984 at a young age of 37. Obviously, Team Hollande would not only carry forward the positives from François Mitterrand’s foreign policy towards India, it is also unlikely to undo any other positives that already exist in the bilateral relations of the two countries, having been built by successive governments. However, the fact that Hollande has attached more significance to China as compared to India so far should be taken seriously by India’s foreign policy and diplomatic establishment. Even as the www.geopolitics.in

Socialist candidate for the French Presidency, he had sent Fabius, now Foreign Minister, to establish contacts with the Chinese hierarchy. However, Fabius was not properly received and returned home miffed. Yet, after his election, Hollande appointed a seasoned China hand, well-known Sinologue Paul Jean-Ortiz, Director, Asia and Oceania, his diplomatic aide to deal with China. Since no envoy of such import has been sent to India as yet could be a matter of concern for us. “His main accent will be Europe and he is a true European at heart. But he is aware that we live in a globalised world and is not opposed to globalisation. He wants to save the euro and that is important for India too since Europe is a major trade partner. He knows the importance of a country like India,” Claude Blanchemaison, former French Ambassador to India said recently. It was during his tenure in New Delhi, in the Chirac years, that the two countries began their strategic ‘partnership in 1998. “Since then,” he said, “we have come a very long way indeed. I know there are worries in New Delhi about Hollande who is virtually unknown abroad and whether he will invest as fully as Sarkozy did in India. I do not think we need to worry on that score. The cooperation on terrorism will continue,

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as will our strategic dialogue and he will not step back from the support France has given to India on its bid for a UN Security Council seat or waver on the nuclear issue. In fact, his position on nuclear energy is not that different from Sarkozy’s and he has stated that there will be no closing down of the European Pressurised Reactors.” Ramesh Mulye, the former Deputy Chief of Mission in Paris, who now represents the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) in France, struck a slightly more cautious note: “Indian entrepreneurs were really struck by Sarkozy’s energy and genuine interest in India. In many ways he galvanised the business communities in both countries, putting India on the map as never before. But no government, however well-intentioned, can do much where there is a major economic slump. As far as Hollande goes, we shall just have to wait and see if he is able to take his eye off Europe and give equal or certainly enough weight to India-French issues.” It is nonetheless an opportunity for India to take the lead without waiting for the new French government to do so. (The author is Director [Honorary], Centre for Public Affairs, Noida and Editor, ICSSR Journal of Abstracts and Reviews in Political Science) August 2012


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BEYOND

THE LINES Veteran journalist Kuldip Nayar has donned several caps in his long and celebrated career spanning more than six decades — that of syndicated columnist, human rights activist and author. He has also been Resident Editor of The Statesman and Managing Editor of the Indian news agency UNI. He corresponded for the Times for 25 years and later served as Indian High Commissioner to the UK during the VP Singh government. His autobiography, Beyond the Lines, is a virtual account of the history of modern India by a man who was privy to the goings-on behind the scenes during the most important chapters of the nation’s history. In the following excerpts, Kuldip Nayar talks about the secrecy behind the Henderson Brooks report following the 1962 war with China, the right of control over the CBI and the controversial seminar convened by Ghulam Nabi Fai in Washington who was later arrested as a Pakistani spy working for the ISI.

Beyond the Lines: An Autobiography Author: Kuldip N ayar Publisher: Roli Books Pages: 420 Price: `595

I

USED the RTI facilities in 2008 when I wanted access to the Henderson Brookes inquiry report on the 1962 border debacle with China. This was written by two senior

www.geopolitics.in

army officers, Lt Gen. Henderson Brooks and Lt Gen. Prem Bhagat. Their report is nearly fifty years old and yet the government has kept it under wraps. The government got away under cover of ‘public interest’. Nowhere in the world has the army been able to deprive the public on facts on such an important chapter in India’s history for such a long period under the cover of secrecy. It is a pity that the Central Information Commission comprising two retired civil servants, Wajahat Habibullah and M.L. Sharma, were unable to rise above the hangover of their loyalty to the establishment. They rejected my plea to make the report

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public. Even so, I would say that Wajahat Habibullah has expanded the contours of the act. I have disagreed with him sometimes but there was no doubt about his commitment to transparency. The non-disclosure of the report confirms my view that the army in India is a sacred cow. The public, particularly the media, is so circumspect when it comes to discussing the armed forces that even mild criticism is avoided, lest it should adversely affect the ‘morale’ of the armed forces. This craven attitude has allowed the armed forces to get away even with murder. The commission’s verdict was so palpably wrong that it went against the grain of intelligence. It considered the August 2012


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g EXCERPTS issue of the India-China border to be ‘alive’ because of the ‘ongoing negotiations’ between the two countries. It did not want to lift the lid from a scandal of cowardice and arrogance. The commission should be aware that the negotiations began long before the hostilities, and were in progress when I was information officer with the then home minister, G.B. Pant, in 1957. The former chief of the army staff, General V P Malik reacted appropriately to the withholding of the report. He publicly criticized the judgement, arguing that it was not in the public interest to keep the 1962 report secret. He said that both weaponry and tactics had undergone an enormous transformation since those days so there was no question of secrecy in the national interest. My feeling is that as the responsibility for the India-China war had been laid at Nehru’s door the government was unwilling to make the report public. It is amusing that justice Hamoodur Rahman should lay the blame on the army, not politicians for Pakistan’s defeat in Bangladesh while the Henderson Brooks Commission headed by a former army officer absolved the men from the services and held politicians responsible. A war lost because of the failure of the army and the then rulers’ ineptness can neither endanger external nor internal security. My appeal against the order at the Delhi High Court is still pending.

********* When the bill to spell out the control over CBI came before the home affairs parliamentary committee, I was still a member of it. The Chief justice of India J S Verma had proposed in a hawala case an independent Directorate of Prosecution (DOP) control the CBI. No political party — all of them were represented in the committee — wanted the CBI to become autonomous. I was disappointed when justice Verma’s proposal was rejected and administrative control of the government was endorsed. So much so, that the committee restored the Single Directive which the Supreme Court had thrown out. The Single Directive meant that the government’s permission was required before initiating an enquiry or action against joint secretaries and officers above them. There is hardly any minister who does not use the CBI for his or her party’s interests. Details of the 2G Spectrum scandal, now revealed by the CBI, shows how miniswww.geopolitics.in

PASSIONATE ACTIVIST: Kuldeep Nayar, (third from left) along with Bollywood producer-director Mahesh Bhatt at a peace march

ters flouted all rules in the allotment of licences and were in league with corporate houses.

*********

I got many threatening calls from Hindu chauvinists. I reproduce part of one letter which I received: ‘I have been going through your articles for the last several years and have concluded that opposing Hinduism is your only and only “motto”, which certainly is not expected from journalist of your calibre.’ Almost a decade later I was attacked for having attended a seminar convened by Ghulam Nabi Fai in Washington. He had been arrested as Pakistan’s spy working for ISI on its Kashmir agenda. Those were the days when Washington and Islamabad were distancing from each other and asking their respective intelligence agents working in their countries to leave. This was a fallout of Osama Bin Laden’s killing in Abbottabad at the hands of US navy SEALS. I had been called a pro-Pakistani earlier but this time at least one television channel working for aman (peace) between the two countries characterized me as an ‘anti-India intellectual’. I took the criticism as an instance of their ventilation of prejudice. I was unaware

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of who was financing Fai when I attended the one-day conference held at Capitol Hill. Some hot-headed Kashmiris, who have settled in Middle East, brought before the meeting a resolution to support Kashmir’s azadi. I vehemently opposed it, as did the other three Indian participants. All that happened was the issue of a statement urging upon India and Pakistan a peaceful and amicable resolution of the Kashmir issue. I do feel, however, that the Indian mission in Washington should have warned us against attending the seminar which they knew about. I had in fact contacted the embassy much in advance and shared details about the seminar. What however surprises me is that all journalists go on free and lavish junkets organized by the US, UK, Germany and other countries without compunction but when it comes to Pakistan there is a deep prejudice. If it is a question of ethics, then all hospitality from other countries, including our own, should be refused but double standards prevail. —Excerpted with permission from the publishers August 2012


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AST MONTH, we carried an essay on the need for a Over centuries, the Russians have developed systems, national university on defence. What I want to add producing several classics of contemporary strategic literathis time is that what will be taught in this universiture. For example, in the interwar period (1918-37) the ty is as important as its very creation. Because, if then Soviet General Staff focussed relentlessly on analysing experience is any indication then our existing what the next war would look like. Likewise, experts have strategic leaders and the institutions that support them — marvelled at “the Soviet briefing book for Iran”, which was both civilian and military — overemphasise on area studies, discovered after Iran fell into Allied hands after World War foreign policy and international relations and neglect hardII. It showed how brilliantly Moscow had analysed every core defence matters such as weapons, war games and docpossible road in Iran for its capacity to support troop trines. movements and had thoroughly learnt about Iran’s politics In fact, as an editor of a security journal, I find very few and economics as well. Such insights, and these included people in our think tanks that are funded by the Ministry of the importance of espionage and subversion, greatly faciliDefence (MoD) interested in writing on hardcore military tated the takeover of Iran by the Allied forces. matters, not to speak of those serving in universiThe Chinese are also closely following the ties and private organisations. I do not get Americans and Russians in ensuring how the enough people to write features that will make People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will learn our readers wiser about the Indian Army, Navy from others’ wars. It is said that the PLA, and Air Force. Our readers and I would like to which was used to give primacy to Army and know how our armed forces are taking note of its manpower strength, realised the importhe revolutions in military affairs (RMA) and tance of air power after observing the Western what lessons they have been learning from the campaign in Kosovo in the 1990s. It was recent wars worldwide in tactics, weaponry and impressed by the signature features of the Prakash Nanda leadership. And, most important, how are they Kosovo operations — the air campaign, applicoping with these changes? cation of precision-guided munitions, use of unmanned War lessons are of two types. One type highlights the aerial vehicles and psychological warfare. Recent literature broad political and strategic aspects. These deal with quesalso suggests that the Chinese learnt a great deal from the tions: Can India trust Pakistan and China? Did America win Falkland War between Great Britain and Argentina, particthe Iraq War? Is the North Atlantic Treaty and Organisation ularly the significance of “anti-access and area denial” by (NATO) relevant any more? Should the United Nations give the British Navy expedition, force protection, a self-reliant the mandate for military interventions in Syria and Iran? re-supply system, and foreign base/access facility. SimilarWhat will happen after the United States (US) withdraws from ly, the Chinese noted how missiles and their newer verAfghanistan? All these are complicated questions and the sions played havoc with the Iraqi forces in the two Gulf global strategic elites have been rightly analysing them day in Wars. They saw that the RMA brought out by the Americans and day out. And we Indians are very good in such exercises. was the result of the scientific and technological breakThe other type of war lessons — and here we are lagging throughs in computation, electronics, information probehind — focus on the real military experience or observacessing and transmission. tions, their interpretations, significance and applicability. It is no wonder then that the Chinese have benefited This lesson also includes what are called the new “tools of immensely by taking lessons from others’ wars. If the PLA war”: asymmetric war (terrorism and threats of nuclear war) Navy and Air Force have undergone metamorphosis in and information war (that includes cyber-strikes). To deal recent years, it is precisely because Beijing realised that with these lessons, the US has the Joint Center for Operaunless it prepared itself well for any future eventualities, it tional Analysis, United States Army War College, Unites would be courting trouble. Chinese publications have dealt States Air Force Air War College, the Marine Corps Center for with how China learnt from Britain that its Navy’s interests Lessons Learned, and the Navy Lessons Learned System. In must go beyond Taiwan and include missions far away fact, these days, such establishments are debating a new from the home base. The Gulf War made China develop concept of operations called “air-sea battle” that the Pentamissile power, both in magnitude and in range, as a main gon has floated in the wake of the US decision to leave deterrence force against possible US intervention in a Afghanistan by 2014. This concept is premised on the belief cross-Taiwan Strait confrontation. that future conflicts will be featuring high-tech, long-range Can India remain far behind? As an emerging global aerial and maritime strike platforms directed against the player, we need to learn about future wars and how to win enemy. In a sense, this concept strikes at the theory of “jointthem, based on information and understanding of both the ness” and excludes consideration of the necessity of the military and civilians. Unfortunately, that does not seem to ground forces to accomplish strategic objectives. Prebe happening. Otherwise, I would have got enough writers dictably, it has evoked the wrath of the US Army, but that is on the subject. a different matter. Important here is the fact that there is a debate and the American public is getting educated about the development. prakashnanda@newsline.in

www.geopolitics.in

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August 2012



Reg No.DL(E)-01/5363/2011-2013 RNI No. DELENG/2010/35319 Publication Date. 01/08/2012 Posting Date. 8-9/08/2012


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