m o d e r n i s i n g t h e pa r a m i l i ta r y f o r c e s
geopolitics Vol III, Issue VIII, JANUARY 2013 n `100
defence n
Arming without Aiming? The Spring in Kuwait
AIR SHIELD
In the face of the growing threats of missile and rocket attacks on the Indian cities, should we go for Iron Drone- type air-defence systems?
diplomacy n
s e c uri t y
Protection from the sky (P44) CONTENTS
Protection from the sky giantcomfort.com
With Israel proving the worth of the Iron Dome, our strategists are contemplating to develop indigenous Iron Dome shields for our cities.
Perspective (P12)
pib
hemant rawat
PANORAMA (P10)
Wings for the Army
Time For Defence planning
The war of words between the Army and the Air Force notwithstanding, the Ministry of Defence has given its green signal to the Army to expand its aviation unit.
A stand-alone mode rather than take-all-along mode is adopted while deciding India’s defence budget but there is no defence planning.
Internal Security (53)
DefBiz (P18)
Cyber Law (P60)
new challenges
Focus: Indian skies
Net safe
The changing role and the modernization of the Central armed police forces should go hand in hand in the present security scenario.
Pritam Bhavnani, President, Honeywell Aerospace on the Jaguar deal, the innovative T-Hawk programme, the maturity and the prospects.
The country is witnessing a vigorous debate over the abuse of cyber laws -- all in the name of ensuring peace and security.
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January 2013
us navy
mea
PIB
Kuwait-Ra’ed Qutena
Defence deals with Russia (p32) Russian President Vladimir Putin signed defence deals: the sale of 42 Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighters and a supply of 970 warplane engines.
Kuwait in crisis (p72) Since its liberation after the 1991 Gulf War, Kuwait faces the worst political crisis – for the first time — engulfing the oil rich nation.
Networked battlefield (p16) The new Tac-SIS system provides complete battlefield integrated solutions in a war zone to the military.
From Begum with Love (p66) Khalida Zia’s new found appreciation of India indicates a change in her attitude towards Islamic fundamentalists.
FOCUS (P70)
Changing face of al-Qaeda
inthelightofdarkness.com
The al-Qaeda in Pakistan is undergoing a paradigm and ideological shift that has led to an upsurge in sectarian violence.
Editor-in-Chief
DIPLOMACY (P76)
K SRINIVASAN Editor
Managing Editor
PRAKASH NANDA
TIRTHANKAR GHOSH
Consulting Editor
Assistant Editor
SAURAV JHA
Justin C Murik
Chief Visualiser
Designers
AJAY NEGI
mohit kansal, MODASSAR NEHAL, NAGENDRA DUBEY
Design Consultant
Photo Editor
Staff Photographer
ARTWORKS
H C TIWARI
HEMANT RAWAT
Director (Corporate Affairs)
Director (Marketing)
RAJIV SINGH
RAKESH GERA
Back in Business Shinzo Abe is once again the Prime Minister of Japan and this development could boost India-Japan ties.
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M O D E R N I S I N G T H E PA R A M I L I TA R Y F O R C E S
geopolitics Vol III, Issue VIII, JANUARY 2013 `100
DEFENCE
DIPLOMACY
SECURITY
Arming without Aiming? The Spring in Kuwait
AIR SHIELD
In the face of the growing threats of missile and rocket attacks on the Indian cities, should we go for Iron Drone- type air-defence systems?
Cover Design: Ajay Negi The total number of pages in this issue is 84 with cover
January 2013
LETTERS
letters to editor g DIPLOMACY
ARMS BAZAAR N With President Vladimir Putin visiting India this month, it is quite likely that he will try to reverse the downward momentum of the defence business between India and Russia, writes AMIT KUMAR
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ot so long in history, the erstwhile Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) was the powerhouse of military hardware and its defence industry was the engine of her economic growth. The same cannot be said about the successor state of the erstwhile Soviet Union, the Russian Federation, which inherited the priced legacy of a strong military-industrial complex (MIC) from the USSR, but could not sustain the tempo due to a variety of reasons viz., the economic crisies of the 1990s, changed foreign policy orientations and domestic compulsions. However, the sincere and concerted efforts of President Vladimir Putin are likely to reverse the downslide of the past and enthuse a new lease of life in the ailing Russian defence industry. Modernisation of the Russian armed forces, an essential component of which is MIC, is one of the key priority areas of Putin’s overall modernisation project. Significantly, India’s own military modernisation plan is to a great extent contingent upon the ability of the Russian MIC to deliver, since most of what India is going to acquire for its armed forces is to come from Russia, either by way of direct pur-
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NOCKSON/WIKIPEDIA
RUSSIA’S
SIGN OF THE TIMES: In a shift from a traditional reliance on Russian-made weaponry, the Mig-35 lost out to the French Rafale
chase or under licensed production or by producing jointly (see table). It is significant to note that the signing of the ‘New Framework for India-US Defence Relationsip’ on June 28, 2005, has not affected the Indo-Russian defence cooperation. One reason for this could be the reluctance of the USA to transfer technology, since US domestic laws are very stringent on this count. As leading security expert Bharat Karnad says, “America is unlikely to transfer any critical technology or render help of the sort the Russians routinely have for cutting-edge DRDO projects.” However, things may change if the US keeps up its recent promises to have a relook at its strategy of arms exports to India. Another emerging player in the Indian defence sector is Israel. Israel is eating into Russia’s share of defence electronics; the Indian navy, in particular, has shown inclination for Israeli electronic equipments to bolster its surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. However, the Israeli defence industry is still in its infancy compared to the Russian arms industry. It is evident from the pie chart (see chart 2), which shows the share of major exporters of arms worldwide. It is significant to note that the sign-
December 2012
ing of the ‘New Framework for India-US Defence Relationsip’ on June 28, 2005 has not affected the Indo-Russian defence cooperation. One reason for this could be the reluctance of the USA to transfer technology, since US domestic laws are very stringent on this count. As leading security expert Bharat Karnad says: “America is unlikely to transfer any critical technology or render help of the sort the Russians routinely have for cutting-edge DRDO projects.” However, things may change if the US keeps up its recent promises to have a relook at its strategy of arms exports to India. Another emerging player in the Indian defence sector is Israel. Israel is eating into Russia’s share of defence electronics; the Indian Navy, in particular, has shown inclination for Israeli electronic equipments to bolster its surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities. However, the Israeli defence industry is still in its infancy compared to the Russian arms industry. It is evident from the pie chart (see chart 2), which shows the share of major exporters of arms worldwide. With regard to indigenisation, it can be said that India’s quest for indigenisation must be balanced with the quest for rapid modernisation of its arsenals, especially at a time when China is modernising its own military at some pace. Building a case for India’s trusted defence partner Russia in modernising the Indian armed forces, Rod Thornton argues: “While New Delhi might want complete autarky in terms of weapons’ production, it has to remain conscious of the fact that this can never really be achieved and that making any significant strides in this direction will take a long time. But India does not really have the luxury of such time. The pressure to be an independent producer of a range of weapons systems—both low-tech and high-tech—has to be balanced by the pressure to field such systems quickly. The need is still there to take the shortcut and to procure from abroad. The obvious choice here would be the traditional supplier, Russia.” To meet its security preparedness in a time-bound fashion India has placed huge orders of platforms and weapons from Russia (see table). But at the same time, India is making conscious efforts to move away from its over-reliance on Russia in defence arena. Consequently, it has placed defence orders with many other countries like, Israel, the USA, the UK, France etc. Moreover, in pursu-
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ance of its diversification policy India is about to sign purchase deal for 126 Medium Multi-Role Aircraft (MMRCA) fighter planes with French Dassault Rafale. Notwithstanding media reports stating that
the deal is far from final, the deal pegged at around `50,000 crore, is considered the decade’s largest military purchase and is all set to be finalised. The MMRCA deal was seen in many
Transfer of Major Conventional Weapons by Russia to India (2000-2011)* Weapon designation
Weapon description
Year of order
Il-38SD/May
ASW aircraft
2001
SET-65E
ASW torpedo
2003
Akula-2
Nuclear submarine
2004
Year(s) of deliveries 2008
Number ordered
Number delivered
3
3
15 1
Gorshkov
Aircraft carrier
2004
Il-38/May
ASW aircraft
2005
2009
2
1 2
MiG-29SMT/ Fulcrum
FGA aircraft
2005
2010-2011
16
16
Talwar
Frigate
2006
Su-30MK/ Flanker
FGA aircraft
2007
2007-2008
18
18
Mi-8MT/Mi17/Hip-H
Helicopter
2008
2011
80
10
Ka-31/Helix
AEW helicopter
(2009)
MiG-29SMT Fulcrum
FGA aircraft
9M113/AT-5 Spandrel
Anti-tank missile
(1988)
1992-2011
25000
PJ-10 BrahMos
Anti-ship MI/ SSM
(1998)
2006-2011
(1500)
160
Su-30MK/ Flanker
FGA aircraft
(2001)
2005-2011
140
(76)
T-90S
Tank
2001
2001-2006
310
310
AL-55
Turbofan
2005
3
2011
2010
5
5
29 (12800)
(250)
T-90S
Tank
2006
(650)
Su-30MK/ Flanker
FGA aircraft
2007
2009-2011
T-90S
Tank
2007
2009-2011
MiG-29SMT/ Fulcrum
FGA aircraft
2008
(62)
Su-30MK/ Flanker
FGA aircraft
2011
42
40
38
347
250
Source: SIPRI Arms Transfers Database *Transfers of major conventional weapons: Deals with deliveries or orders made for year range 2000 to 2011
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December 2012
Congratulations for the exhaustive story, Russia’s Arms Bazaar, published in the December issue. The joint venture between India and Russia in the defence sector is very old and continues to build on the basis of mutual interest on both sides. Indo-Russian bilateral ties have been, over the years, heavily dependent on the defence sector. Russia— it seems likely—will remain the major defence partner of India in the future. As Defence Minister Antony stressed, “Russia remains India’s number one strategic partner and, in many respects, there are no alternatives to cooperation with Russia in the foreseeable future.” Indo-Russian defence ties will help both the countries to strengthen their defence bases. However, the geopolitical interests of some neighbouring countries have created obstacles in the interests of both the countries. Over the few years, the conventional reliance of India on Russia for military products has come down and there is a slow but sure shift towards the US and Europe. While India continues to depend upon imports to meet upto 70 per cent of its military apparatus, the share of products being obtained from Russia has shown an overall fall. But the defence co-
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operation in various fields such as BrahMos, Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft, Medium Transport Aircraft Development Programme (MTA), Co-operation in Space —the GLONASS and the Joint Military Exercises have strengthened the ties. The Russian-Indian arms relationship is now entering a new phase with the implementation of the intergovernmental programme for Russian-Indian Defence Cooperation for 2010-2020 as Vyacheslav Dzirkaln, Deputy Director of Russia’s Federal Service For Military and Technical Cooperation, recently said, “Russia in its defence relationship with India was focussing on licence production that is licence transfer and further production in India. That means production of hi-tech military equipment and modernisation of the earlier supplied items.” Ram Sharma Lucknow
The story, Falling in line in the December 2012 issue was interesting to read. Abu Jundal’s mention in the story tells us very significant facts about terrorism in India. After the Kasab hanging, he is
DIPLOMACY
DIPLOMACY
HOME-GROWN TERRORIST: Abu Jundal has had a hand in a number of terror attacks across the country
ABU JUNDAL’S WEB OF TERROR
NOVEL PARTNERSHIP: A Parliamentary delegation from Saudi Arabia led by the Speaker of Majlis Ash Shura (Consultative Council), Dr. Abdullah Bin Mohammed Bin Ibrahim Al Al-Sheikh calling on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in New Delhi on May 8, 2012. Also seen is Indian National Security Advisor Shivshankar Menon
Abu Jundal was involved in or connected with a number of terror attacks across India. •
FALLING IN LINE
PIB
Recent deportation of Pakistani-trained Indian terrorists from Saudi Arabia gives grounds for some optimism that Islamist extremists using Saudi soil to mount their campaigns in India are no longer secure, writes N MANOHARAN
N
o country can counter the menace of terrorism singlehandedly, however powerful it may be. Enhanced diplomacy and international cooperation is one of the best “insurance policies” countries can have against terrorism, both in the short and long run. India has of late been realising the fruits of its tireless diplomatic efforts with Saudi Arabia, which is considered to be one of the hubs of jihadists, by series of deportations of Indian terrorists holed up in that country. On October 22, 2012, Fasih Mohammed, a suspected Indian Mujahideen (IM) operator alleged to have been inwww.geopolitics.in
volved in terror attacks in Bengaluru and Delhi, became the third Indian terrorist to be deported from Saudi Arabia. A Rayees, an accused in a case relating to seizure of ammonium nitrate from Chakkarakkal in Kannur in 2009, was deported on October 6, 2012. In June this year, Abu Jundal alias Sayed Zabiuddin Ansari, a Lashkare-Toiba (LeT) handler, involved in several terror attacks in various parts of India, was similarly deported despite Pakistan’s resistance. How significant? Abu Jundal was involved in or connected with a number of terror attacks across In-
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dia. Apart from the famous Aurangabad arms haul case (May 2006), his involvement has surfaced in the IISc attack in Bengaluru (December 2005), 26/11 Mumbai attacks (November 2008), German Bakery blast in Pune (February 2010), Chinnaswamy Stadium attack in Bengaluru (April 2010) and Jama Masjid attack in Delhi (September 2010). He was the only Indian present at the “control room” in Karachi that guided the entire course of 26/11 Mumbai attack; he not only knew who else were present, but also their exact role and motivations. Ajmal Kasab, lone terrorist caught alive among the 10 terrorists who carried out Mumbai attacks, December 2012
• • • • •
Aurangabad arms haul case (May 2006) Bengaluru IISc attack (December 2005) 26/11 Mumbai attacks (November 2008) Pune German Bakery blast (February 2010) Bengaluru Chinnaswamy Stadium attack (April 2010) Delhi Jama Masjid attack in (September 2010)
was just an operative. But, Ansari had been involved right from the planning of the attacks to its execution and also its post-mortem. His first-hand testimony is important for India to connect various unconnected dots in the case. Thus far, testimonies of Kasab and David Headley are available to India; only Ansari should be in a position to confirm whether they spoke the truth or not. Zabiuddin Ansari should also be able to explain the extent of Pakistan’s—its intelligence agencies to be more precise —involvement in various terror attacks against India. As Pakistan claims, is it really not in a position to control anti-Indian militant groups based in its soil? Or, is it controlling everything, from planning to execution of terror attacks against India? Whether Jundal fled to Saudi Arabia with the help of the Pakistani establishment or with the help of LeT or both. How did he manage www.geopolitics.in
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H C TIWARI
to survive in Saudi Arabia for nearly two years with a “fake passport”? Ansari is also expected to know a lot about the Pakistan-based LeT: its leadership, motivation, funding, recruitment, training, bases (both political and military), logistical support, its linkage with state and non-state actors of Pakistan, other internal and external networks, its modules and ‘sleeper cells’ in India, selection of targets, plans for future attacks and its extent of connections with Indian jihadist groups like SIMI and IM. He has already revealed substantial amount of information that has in fact helped the police crack certain IM modules before they got into act. In the case of Jundal, Saudi Arabia was reluctant to deport him because of Pakistan, its staunch ally. Islamabad knew Jundal’s value to Indian authorities and the damage it could cause to Pakistan’s image if he confessed whatever he knew. Although pressure from the US worked, there has been realisation on the part of the Saudis on the need to cooperate with India on counter-terrorism. They finally came around to hand Ansari over when they were convinced by the DNA profile of Jundal and other proofs submitted by India unambiguously establishing his Indian nationality. On the other hand, Pakistan had no credible proof to show to
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the Saudis to ascertain that he was a Pakistani citizen. Considered to be “a very important catch”, Fasih Mohammed is expected to know a lot about the IM: its leadership, motivation, funding, recruitment, training, bases (both political and military), logistical support, its linkage with state and non-state actors of Pakistan, other internal and external networks, its modules and ‘sleeper cells’ in India and abroad, presence in countries like Saudi Arabia, selection of targets, and plans for future attacks. Fasih’s arrest indeed was a big blow to the IM, the module of which was recently busted. But, unlike in Abu Jundal’s case, the delay in the deportation of Fasih Mohammed and Rayees was more of procedural in nature: in terms of crimes committed by the accused and their citizenship. A Rayees would throw more light on LeT connections to southern India, especially terror modules based in Kerala, radicalisation of Muslim youth of the state and the availability of bombmaking materials like ammonium nitrate to the terrorists. Overall, all the three cases would help the Indian government understand the various causes for radicalisation of Indian Muslim youth, those groups involved in radicalising them, their international network, on how the youth graduate to indulge in terror attacks against their own people and, in the process, how they get their lives and ambitions trapped and finally destroyed. The crucial point is to get to know of the intent and extent of Pakistan’s involvement. For instance, just to take the case of Abu Jundal: had been holed up in Saudi Arabia since 2010 after leaving Pakistan with the help of his Pakistani handlers. To the embarrassment of Pakistan’s government, Ansari’s Pakistani passport indicates that it was issued in January 2009 from Karachi in the name of Riyasat Ali, a resident of Muridke, Pakistan. Ansari also holds two Pakistani identity cards that enable him to enter Pakistan without a visa. The Beginning and the Way Ahead Post-9/11 Saudi Arabia realised the inDecember 2012
only the person left who has been charged in the 26/11 attack and should be booked. Even after 26/11, he continued with his plans to let loose terror against India. A major breakthrough was achieved in the probe when Jundal was arrested in Saudi Arabia and handed over to the Special Cell of Delhi Police in June this year. Since then, he has been interrogated by the Mumbai Police, the National Investigation Agency (NIA) and the Gujarat Police. But nothing concrete has been done by the government to book the terrorist and the statement from Pakistani Interior Minister Rehman Malik during his recent India visit claimed that Lashkar-eTaiba operative Abu Jundal was an agent of Indian intelligence agencies has further rubbed salts in Indian wounds. This is ridiculous and reflects poorly on the part of Pakistan. Even Home Secretary R K Singh echoed the same sentiment when he said in a media interview, “Such a statement is ridiculous. Jundal was working with the LeT on Pakistan’s soil when the Mumbai terror attack was carried out.” How can the Pakistani Interior Minister think of that and on what was his basis for uttering these comments? This only says the Pakistan does not want to help India in implicating Jundal. It is high time that India take strong note of the Interior Minister’s words. India should fast-track the process to implicate Abu Jundal thereby warning Pakistan and declared to the world that we have the guts to book perpetrators of terrorism. In fact, Abu Jundal should receive the death penalty like Kasab as he is equally responsible for committing the heinous crime. And he should not be forgiven. Ajay Sheth Ludhiana
January 2013
PANAROMA
coverstory
Mi-35 Performance • Maximum speed: 335 km/h • Range: 450 km Armament • 12.7 mm Yakushev-Borzov Yak-B Gatling gun • twin-barrel GSh-30K • GSh-23L • PKT passenger compartment window mounted machine guns The Army desires control over the tactical assets, leaving the Air Force to concentrate on the strategic roles. The Indian Army’s grand plan is to enhance the complete capability of Army Aviation Corps, from manpower and training to equipment and infrastructure. The plan is to acquire light observation and attack helicopters in the short-term and medium-lift choppers and even fixedwing aircraft in the long-term. Five thousand, of the nearly ten thousand AAC personnel, who come on deputation from the infantry, artillery, air defence, mechanized infantry branches, will now have the option to opt permanently for the air corps.
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There was much opposition to the Indian Army’s efforts to create a dedicated air wing of its own, with the Air Force raising the hackles, but the writ of the Army has prevailed, steamrolling all opposition. Recently, Army Chief General Bikram Singh approved the creation of a permanent cadre for the Army Aviation Corps (AAC). The announcement came within two months of Defence Minister AK Antony ruling that future procurements and inductions of attack helicopters would be exclusively for the Army. At present, the Army Aviation Corps operates around 250 light helicopters like Druv, Cheetah and Chetak. For now, the heavy lift choppers and the attack choppers are exclusively flown by the Indian Air Force. But this is obviously going to change.
The transformation Even though attack helicopters, like the Mil Mi-25/Mi-35, are owned and administered by the IAF, operational control over them is maintained by the Army. These attack helicopters and play a vital role in supporting the armoured columns and infantry in the Thar desert and the plains of Punjab. But the Army obviously wants complete authority —not just over them, but other aviation assets as well.
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January 2013
g COVERSTORY
Armed choppers
Gunships for Strike Corps
The other ten ‘pivot corps’ will have a squadron each of armed, reconnaissance/ observation and tactical battle-support helicopters. These include choppers like the Rudra, which are the weaponised versions of the indigenous Advanced Light Helicopters (ALH). In all, all the 13 corps of the Indian Army will have a squadron of air assets at their beck and call to support them on the battlefield.
The Army had been demanding attack helicopters saying these are mainly used for operations by it. Armed with tank busting missiles, cannon and rockets, they can be used to pulverise enemy army formations. The Indian Army has three Strike Corps based at Mathura, Ambala and Bhopal for which it wants attack choppers such like the Apache.
at the pivot
Apache Performance
Maximum speed: 293 km/h Combat radius: 480 km
Armament
• Guns: 1× 30 mm (1.18 in) M230 Chain Gun with 1,200 Hardpoints: Four pylon stations on the stub wings. Longbows also have a station on each wingtip for an AIM-92 ATAS twin missile pack. • Rockets: Hydra 70 70 mm, and CRV7 70 mm air-to-ground rockets • Missiles: Typically AGM-114 Hellfire variants; • AIM-92 Stinger may also be carried.
HAL Dhruv Performance
Maximum speed: 290 km/h Combat radius: 320 km
Rudra
Armament
• 8 Anti-tank guided missiles • 4 Air-to-air missiles • 4 x 68 mm Rocket Pods (Air-Force & Army) • 2 Torpedoes • Depth charges or Anti-ship missiles
Armament • Nexter 20 mm turret gun • Belgian 70 mm rockets • MBDA air-to-air missile • Helina anti-tank missile
The Army Aviation Corps also performs combat search and rescue (CSAR) and medical evacuation (MEDEVAC) during war in addition to rendering invaluable service in the case of natural calamities
Tactical airlift In addition to the rotary assets, the Indian Army also wants “a flight” of five fixed-wing aircraft for tactical airlift of troops and equipment. (C-130)
Logistic and battlefield support
Armies around
the world
The Indian Army is not the only one which has dedicated air assets of its own. The US, Chinese and Pakistani armies all have dedicated air wings. Several air forces around the world maintain considerable aerial assets that arewww.geopolitics.in under their complete control and perform critical tactical operations on the battlefield.
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Apart from the attack helicopters, helicopters like the HAL Chetak, HAL Cheetah and HAL Dhruv provide logistical support for the Indian Army in remote and inaccessible areas, specially the Siachen Glacier. January 2013
DPR
Arming Without
India is the only major country that makes a defence budget every year without a national security doctrine to guide its demands and allotment. Defence planning is done in a standalone mode rather than in a take-all-along mode. How long will this directionless defence budgeting continue? Isn’t it time for a transformation, time to make sense out of the current, all-pervasive ineptitude and tunnel vision that surrogates for national security & defence planning and budgeting? Raj Mehta analyses
I
n their sometimes patronising, yet compelling and thoughtful book, Arming without Aiming—India’s Military Modernisation, Stephen Cohen and Sunil Dasgupta state that “after Independence, the Indian Government decided that the Army was a poor instrument of policy. Accordingly, New Delhi pushed aside military matters to focus on development and diplomacy”. The authors point out that the political leadership, in the wake of the disastrous Sino-Indian War of 1962, was com-
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pelled to go in for urgent modernisation; a slap-dash exercise that was repeated after the Indo-Pak War of 1965 and again in the mid 1980s during the General Sundarji era which is remembered for conceptualising/seeking a deep strike mechanised capability. The last ‘modernisation’ spike occurred post the Kargil War of 1999, when the defence budget once again crossed 3 per cent of India’s GDP. The authors (critically) mention that, post Operation Parakram period, India, in 2004, developed a limited war strategy; ‘Cold Start’,
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which epitomises lean and mean shallow offensive operations by dispersed, integrated mechanised forces. Cold Start, the authors impute, assumes an ‘escalation threshold’ in which India can operate short of invite a general war or nuclear retaliation. The authors state that, in recent years, the Indian strategic security focus has veered towards deterrence and counter-insurgency operations. The prevailing strategic environment has forced India’s armed forces to prepare for the possibility of a ‘two front’ war, while the Army and January 2013
PERSPECTIVE
ITAKING STOCK: Seen here at Defexpo 2012 Defence Minister AK Antony will have to make quick decisions to expedite purchases for the armed forces
Aiming other security forces are engaged in fighting an ongoing ‘half front’ internal security war. Internationally, the ‘Look East’ policy has resulted in deeper budgetary support for the Navy and Air Force. The Army, as a consequence, has had to accept ‘a reduced position (for modernisation) in the Services triumvirate’. While it is clear that in a democracy, the armed forces are expected to provide deterrence that caters for avoiding rather than fighting and winning costly wars; the fact remains that deterrence itself needs apex level spelling out and huge budgetary support. With India’s institutional denigration of the need for military capability co-terminus with economic progress, development and capacity building, the military establishment has savagely been undermined. In this stark introduction to India’s security dilemmas, several things stand out. Foremost is the fact that India’s security perceptions have been driven by external forces—the wars it has fought and neighbourhood developments
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—rather than by deliberate design. The military wasn’t a national priority with the founding fathers and remains neglected to date. Secondly, India does not have a capstone document that spells out its national security concerns from which the individual and Joint Service apparatus can exact their missions and tasking. The dichotomy hits you with a resounding slap—how can you make a budget for defence forces if you have no common perception of what the apex leadership wants from its defence forces; in what priority and to cater for which all threats and up to which extent? Thirdly, true Jointness, when it has occurred - the 1971 Indo-Pak War is a good example that has taken place more by luck and chance; by intervention of charismatic, apex level political and military leaders than by Constitutional mandate or by design. Fourthly, while military modernisation has indeed taken place; by default more than by design; the apex level structures that facilitate warfighting and that level of political and military leadership haven’t kept pace. When push comes to shove, will the mindsets of the past still clog apex level leadership thinking? Don’t they need an upgrade? Don’t they need to be transformational; indeed, yes, is the blunt and unqualified military analyst’s response. The Internet is chock-a-bloc with articles and comments on the nitty-gritties of the Indian Defence Budget; on who will get what percentage of scarce funds will be made available. It is pointless writing on the detailing of defence budgets unless one first understands the context within which the budget either serves its intended purpose or, in the uncluttered words of George W Bush, former American President is: ‘Just a budget... It’s got a lot of numbers in it!’ Clearly, ‘this quaint simplification’ does nothing to reassure a billion-plus Indians that their country is mentally and physically well armed with the ‘ends’, ‘ways’ and ‘means’ to safeguard the sovereignty of India against external and internal threats. Against this background, one may focus on the complexities involved.
What do ends, ways and means signify?
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Arthur Lykke, the US War College strategist teaches that ends (strategic objectives) explain ‘what’ is to be accomplished. Ends are objectives which, on achievement, serve the desired national interests. For India, a desired End State could be to develop individual and Joint Service deterrence sufficiently to prevent any attack on India’s sovereignty/sovereign interests. Ways (strategic concepts) explain ‘how’ the ends are to be accomplished by the employment of strategic resources. The concepts must be explicit enough to provide planning guidance to those (the Services individually and joint, Defence Research Development Organisation {DRDO}, public, private, military-industrial complexes linked to defence) who must implement and resource it. In the Indian context, employment of Cold Start in a conventional limited war scenario is the way India can achieve deterrence. In a nuclear war scenario, the No-First-Use policy of the Government clearly explains that if attacked, a nuclear response by India is assured. Means (resources) explain what specific resources are to be used in applying the concepts to accomplish the objectives. Lykke suggests that tangible means include forces, people, equipment, money, and facilities. Intangible resources include things like ‘will,’ courage, or intellect. Finally, he expounds that Risk explains the gap between what is to be achieved and the concepts and resources available to achieve the objective.
American National Security Strategy (NSS) Underpinnings
The American government, for instance, outlines its major national security concerns and how to deal with them in the form of its regularly-issued NSS document. The document is deliberately general in content unlike its spin-off National Military Strategy (NMS) document, which is specific in content and akin to the Indian Raksha Mantri’s (RM’s) Directive. The NSS document is created by an iterative, interagency process. It communicates the Executive strategic vision to Congress, keeps allies informed; keeps political supporters in the loop, creates internal consensus on foreign and defense policy and lends credibility to the overall political agenda of the executive head, the President. On May 26, 2010, the latest National Security Strategy was issued by President Obama. The Strategy advocated January 2013
The Indian Strategic Reality
India is the only country whose security vision, challenges, methods and processes of assessment, defence planning and regular promulgation is either absent altogether or irregularly produced bits-andpieces work of indifferent quality. Such a basic yet critical ‘systems approach’ to www.geopolitics.in
Filling the fighter drought: The MMRCA competition, in which the Rafale emerged victorious was a long drawn out affair
national security is not considered an executive responsibility to Parliament, the defence forces, defence establishments linked to R&D and production; the people and India’s allies. The Group of Ministers (GoM) Report of 2001 was scathing in its indictment of this void but the deficiency remains. Ironically, finding that the Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) idea was politically and militarily unviable, the GoM recommended as a substitute, the poorly thought through creation of a Chief of Integrated Defence Staff (CISC) to the Chairman COSC. HQ IDS was created to provide institutional support. Today, HQ IDS makes the Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan (LTIPP) that looks 15 years ahead, but without the benefit of a National Security Doctrine. Incidentally, after the Chairman of the Parliament Standing Committee on Defence acidly pointed out in April 2012 that neither the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-2017) nor LTIPP (2012-2027) had been finalised, the Defence Acquisition Committee (DAC) of the MoD hastily accorded approval the same month. Final approval of both lies with the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) but to reach there, they must meet with Ministry of Finance approval which is awaited. According to the existing policy, all procurements should be carried out as per the LTIPP, having been crafted by HQ IDS in consultation with the Service Headquarters (SHQ) and approved by the DAC. The five year Services Capital Acquisition Plan and Annual Acquisition Plans are drawn from LTIPP. The office of Comptroller and Auditor General (C&AG) has repeatedly noted that delayed approval of LTIPP has led to unplanned procurements and almost institutionalised adhocism as the rule not the exception. It must be noted that LTIPP makes no sense if commitment of funds is not long term but annual, and is invariably linked to substantial fund surrender (by bureaucratic withholding of mandatory clearances) or reappropriation. The fact that the CISC is a three star and individual Service Chiefs four star, also implies
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DPR
increased engagement with Russia, China and India; identified economic revival, nuclear non-proliferation and climate change as priorities. The spin-off NMS document is issued by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (C-JCS) to the Secretary of Defence, briefly outlining the strategic aims of the armed services. The NMS’s chief source of guidance is the NSS document. This document is prepared in consultation with the military hierarchy every two years and submitted to the Senate and House Committees on Armed Forces. It is supportive of the NSS guidelines, the latest annual report of the Defence Secretary submitted to Congress and his most recent quadrennial defence review. The NMS Report describes the strategic environment and the opportunities and challenges that affect United States national interests and national security. It also specifies the ‘ends’, ‘ways’, and ‘means’ of the strategy. US national military objectives are the ‘ends’, describing what the Armed Forces are expected to accomplish. Strategic and operational concepts are the ‘ways’ of the strategy and describe how the Armed Forces will conduct military operations to accomplish the specified military objectives. Finally, the NMS report must describe the adequacy of capabilities—the ‘means’—required to achieve objectives within an acceptable level of military and strategic risk. Part of the “means” is the sanction of the appropriate military budget to the defence forces. Military capabilities are always employed as part of an integrated national approach that uses all instruments of national power: military, information, diplomatic, legal, intelligence, finance, and economic. The NMS Report must assess the capabilities, adequacy, and interoperability of regional allies of the US to support US forces in combat operations for extended periods of time. In preparing the assessment of risk, the NMS examines assumptions pertaining to the readiness of forces, the length of conflict; level of intensity of combat operations, and support from allies.
that he cannot properly establish interservice priorities, nor overrule what his seniors recommend. What is, therefore, on display is that there is no overriding, acceptable-to-all vision involved in annual budgetary allotment, nor is there any worthwhile integration between users, procurement, production, R&D, MilitaryIndustrial Complex (MIC). Proof that the Government does not have the political farsightedness, desire or bench strength to push through radical military reform is available in a recent article by Lt Gen SK Sinha, ex-Vice Chief and Governor in Assam and J&K, who states that the Naresh Chandra Committee on Defence Reforms has recommended appointment of a Permanent Chairman, Chief of Staff’s Committee (presumably by nomination of a serving Chief) to stand in as a surrogate CDS. Vinod Anand, writing in the IDSA Winter 2008 issue on the need for jointness and integration in the defence system, says that the process begins with issue of the RM’s Directive. This is meant for the defence forces in stand-alone mode and does not percolate to the other important players within the MoD. The GOM Report of 2001 had demanded that the RM’s Directive be issued one year before commencement of the next five year plan as the plan was to be based on it. It had recommended that the Finance Ministry to see it six months before. Unsurprisingly, this was not done either for the 10th or 11th Five Year Plans. In fact, Anand writes that the last RM’s Directive was issued in 1983.
Weaknesses in the Indian Defence Approach and Functioning
LK Behera, a Research Fellow with IDSA (Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses), writes that defence preparedness has three vital, inter-related components: plan, budget and procurement. India has glaring gaps in all these elements. The second biggest weakness in the procurement system is accountability. In the present procurement process, the acquisition functions are diffused between the service headquarters and the acquisition January 2013
g COVERSTORY PERSPECTIVE wing of the Defence Ministry. DG (Acquisition), who heads the Acquisition Wing and is the head of capital procurement, does not have the full responsibility to ensure accountability, as many of the acquisition functions, such as formulation of qualitative requirements (QRs), trials etc, are beyond his purview, being individual Service domain. In specific budget terms, the 2012-2013 defence budget of Rs 1,93,407.29 crore (US$ 40.44 billion) is only notionally a growth budget (17.63 per cent increase) as it is not driven by modernisation needs as much as by manpower needs. It may be noted that the revenue expenditure—the running or operating cost of the defence services—is 58.9 per cent of the allotment, leaving only 41.1 per cent for the capital head—new acquisitions of equipment. The defence budget as a percentage of the overall budget is 1.9 per cent of the GDP.
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Other detailed weaknesses are:
US ARMY
‘“The Department of Defence Production (DDP) in the MoD is the biggest impediment to modernisation. Its performance even with 39 Ordnance Factories and 9 Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) with over two lakh permanent employees has been dismal as is its nurturing of the indigenous defence industry; a prime responsibility. • India’s tank fleet lacks ammunition, its air defences are obsolete, and the infantry is crippled with deficiencies; the Special Forces are without state-of-theart weapons. • An inadequate industrial base-imports constitute 70 per cent of defence acquisitions—and bureaucratic inefficiency rather than funding are the main cause of slow modernisation. With dollar exchange rate having plummeted, imports have reduced substantially. • R&D, both defence and civil, does not receive the desired government finan-
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cial and knowledge support. Repeated pleas by DG DRDO have been snubbed. His complaint that indeginisation efforts are stymied by indifferent DPSU manufacturing practices has gone unheard. On its part, DRDO but for selected ‘islands of excellence’ such as missiles and radars, should aspire for greater user satisfaction. The highest-paid scientists in the global defence industry are the system and design planners and evaluators. The Indian availability is abysmal. The Indian defence budget document typically comprises seven pages, giving out broad allocations under various funds. By comparison, the US defence budget document is a 500-page document giving out the breakdown of each expenditure. Such detailing rules out foul play. Post designation of C-in-C as Chiefs of Staff, Service HQ were charged with staff functions on procurement. However, the Chiefs did not shed their operational command responsibilities. Nonseparation of operations from planning in Service HQ is a big hindrance to planning and budgeting, especially for the Army since ‘urgent’ takes precedence over ‘important’ and everything important gets ignored till it becomes urgent. Indian bureaucracy is a serious obstacle in India’s efforts to modernise and is a common enough complaint in India but raises concerns when it comes from abroad. This is the gist of a recent US Centre for Strategic & International Studies (CSIS) report.
Defence-related Practices Abroad
In order to determine a way ahead for India, it is necessary to examine good defence-related practices and processes abroad. Extracted from a recent Boston
Consulting Group (BCG)-CII Report and open literature, these are summed up as under:
USA
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All members of the defence acquisition workforce have to be constitutionally-certified for the position they hold. A Defence Acquisition University (DAU) conducts training courses in 13 disciplines at entry, intermediate and senior levels. The syllabus includes for instance, information resource management; acquisition management; logistics; programme management; financial management; production quality; contracting; requirements management; facilities engineering; systems planning; and test and evaluation. Private defence players have great freedom and a highly integrated structure to interact with the defence establishment and policy makers. The US DOD interacts with private industry through the National Defence Industrial Association. It connects Government officials, military and industry professionals, and organisations that represent the armed forces in all acquisition matters from A to Z. The US defence R&D budget provides several tax incentives to encourage innovation in the US aerospace and defence industry and critical knowledge is made available on royalty basis to private developers.
Turkey
• Perhaps the most relevant example for India is that of Turkey. During the 1980s, Turkey initiated the develop-
Heavyhitter: The BAE Systems M777 is primarily intended for use in th mountains
PERSPECTIVE
BOEING
coverstory
Strategic Lifter: The C-17 Globemaster III will fill a crucial gap in the Ariforce’s capability
ment of a modern MIC. It established the Under-secretariat for Defence Industries (UDI), tasking it to make maximum use of the domestic defence industry infrastructure and encouraging new advanced technology investments. Prior to the 1990s, Turkey’s defence procurement was based on off-the-shelf purchases. However, with UDI on line, Turkey’s procurement model changed to co-production, and, finally, to local production and systems integration. • Over the last decade or so, defence exports from the country have increased from US$100 million to US$1 billion. UDI published its Defence Strategy Document 2009-2016 document, to keep the Turkish defence industry informed about product needs and R&D thrust.
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Way Ahead
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It is clear that India, which has the world’s second-largest Army, fifthlargest Navy and sixth-largest Air Force needs to put its act together and get its national security equation right. The logical model that can be followed after fine-tuning, is that of Turkey; a country that started off 30 years ago where we are today and whose acquisition practices have met with resounding success. Our recommendations: A national security doctrine from which we have spin-off doctrines for our Joint and individual Services,
www.geopolitics.in
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R&D; thereby a clear spelling out of ends, ways and means and execution thereof as a Constitutional mandate must be written and complied with. Readers will appreciate that a Defence Budget has no locus-standi of its own and is a portion of the ‘means’ methodology, after the ‘ends’ and the ‘ways’ have been culled out of the national security doctrine. A Military Reform Process is urgently needed. Better use of existing assets including downsizing if so demanded by modern weaponry capabilities must be seriously examined. The need for quality in HR assets as well as equipment cannot be overstated. A harsh reality stated by Alfred Mahan is that the Services by themselves do not have the skill-sets to drive reform. In the US case, major reform came through political intervention through the Goldwater-Nichols Act of 1986, which made Joint Warfighting obligatory and reduced the Chiefs of Services to trainers and suppliers of HR and assets. The entire defence acquisition cycle in all its planes must be revisited threadbare, and restructured, keeping in mind the systems approach followed by America, UK, and Israel, which actively supports defence related startups with money and guidance; writes off R&D losses. The Turkish model must be adapted for our conditions. So far as the domestic private sector industry is concerned, the BCG-CII study suggests that a National Defence Manufacturing Commission under the PMO be set up to implement
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increase in defence procurement in a graduated manner. A level playing field for private industry is needed, as also a complete sea change in the current orientation of DPSU’s, OFB, and DRDO. The felt need, therefore, is of a MIC which is seen not as obstruction or competition by the public sector by as a peer. Encouraging selected DPSU’s to partner private industry and ‘take them along’ in knowledge of critical technologies, capacity building, is needed. The FDI limit should be hiked from the existing 26 to 49 per cent. Government should create an ‘Innovation Fund’ on the Israeli model for private industry entrepreneurs/ small enterprises. In terms of acquisition cycle skills, a Sector Skill Council on the US model is recommended. Lastly, accountability must be clearly established and made transparent. A Implementation Monitoring Unit will assist in streamlining the new systems approach. The package must be ‘single window’ driven and must have measurement matrices of performance as well as non performance. Services and HQ IDS should both guard against the disease the Americans term as ‘unobtainium.’ In brief, the military must ask for attainable QR’s. Lastly, Churchill for once makes sense: “Failure in war is most often the absence of one directing mind and commanding will.” By extrapolation, a CDS should be appointed, or else, the consequences cheerfully accepted.
Conclusion
India as a civilisation and culture has been around for 5000 years. Its entrepreneurial skills, human capital are awesome when correctly harnessed, as is evident from the recent, successful BrahMos collaboration with Russia, the Tata Power SED promise to deliver India’s first indigenous Bofors type 155mm howitzer and Baba Kalyani’s like assurance for howitzers of similar calibre. So does the Reliance interest in the Rafale and its subsequent indigenisation. The DRDO-Navy-Private Industry collaboration on the ATV Project is also laudable. All that is now needed is something akin to Malcolm Gladwell’s Tipping Point—that magic moment when an idea or trend crosses a threshold, tips, and spreads like wildfire. The right time to start is now. (The author is a retired Major General)
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HAL signs contract for 42 Su-30 MKI frontline fighter aircraft
D E F E N C E
GEOPOLITICS
The Tac-SIS system provide integrated aerial situational awareness
B U S I N E S S
“The Indian aerospace industry is mature”
Hemant Rawat
Pritam Bhavnani President, Honeywell Aerospace in India spoke to K Srinivasan and Justin c Murik about the Jaguar deal, the prospects of the Indian aerospace industry and the innovative T-Hawk programme
On the roadmap after winning the Jaguar deal
Actually the process is defined by the MoD (Ministry of Defence), so we follow their process. They have their standard roadmap for the DPP (Defence Procurement Procedure), we follow that—nothing special or different.
On the Honeywell engine for the Jaguar
We have not flown a Jaguar with the engine. What we have done is, taken a Jaguar aircraft and fitted the engine into it www.geopolitics.in
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to make sure it will fit into the engine bay, how to connect the wiring, etc. all the lead system hydraulics, fuel, etc. We tested all that out to make sure that all will fit and function. That was the main purpose of it.
On the Honeywell projects in India
We are working with the Navy and the Coast Guard putting in the TCAS (Traffic Collision Avoidance System) on their transport aircraft like their Dornier 228s, the Ilyushin and Antonov aircraft. So we Continued on Page 16
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X-47B UAV launched by catapult The X-47B Unmanned Combat Air System (UCAS) demonstrator was successfully launched from a catapult in November. Developed by Northrop Grumman for the US Navy the test is one of many such -based catapult-to-flight tests scheduled to be conducted prior to launch of the X-47B from a naval vessel with the help of the UCAS Carrier Demonstration (UCAS-D) programme. The company stated that the flight involved numerous manoeuvres to simulate commands that the aircraft would have to carry out during its landing on ships, including a flight in the usual ship holding pattern, and executing a carrier approach flight profile. The test flight also aided in the assimilation of precision navigation data during the manoeuvres. The Control Display Unit (CDU) developed by Northrop Grumman was also tested during the flight enabling the test team to highlight the precision operation of the device which is one of the important features of future flight deck operation for the X-47B. The CDU is a wireless, arm-mounted controller that will allow a flight deck operator to control and manoeuvre the X-47B on the flight deck, including moving it into the catapult, disengaging it from the carrier’s arresting wires and moving it quickly out of the landing area. The aircraft is also undergoing deck handling trials ahead of the 2013 plans to demonstrate the ability of an X-47B to operate from a US Navy aircraft carrier. January 2013
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ever the agency is that’s doing the procurement, we demonstrate it to them or showcase it to them and let them then make the decision what they want to buy or who they want to buy from.
Hemant Rawat
On the Joint Ventures (JVs) in India
are working with them on that. The other projects are mostly repair work for equipment that’s already with the Air Force and then we supply equipment to HAL that ends up with the Air Force.
On the Traffic Collision Avoidance System
The airspace is becoming more and more shared airspace between the military and civil use…when the military aircraft are operating in the civil airspace and also with the recent relief efforts that went on in Bhutan, for the earthquake. So, now they are flying into civil airspace outside the country. They have the requisite equipment for operating in civil airspace. It is becoming more of a requirement from that perspective. Obviously it is not a requirement on the fighter aircraft but more on the transport aircraft and helicopters and things like that. So, operating in the civil space they have to have the TCAS so that there’s no problem with the other civil traffic that’s going around.
On the T-Hawk UAV
Well I think the big selling points of it are: First of all it’s very light and affordable. In terms of getting it somewhere, it can be carried on your back. You don’t need to have a truck or any vehicle to carry it. It’s much more easily deployed in remote areas without any additional equipment; Second, it has the ability to take off vertically. So you don’t need a large space to operate it from; Third, it can hover, so it doesn’t have to move constantly like an airplane which has to move to stay aloft. It can just stay in one spot. Fourth, it has pre-programmed routes you can be put into it. It has waypoints you can put in. It has default modes like if there is a problem, it loses the signal to the www.geopolitics.in
operator or something —it can come back or you can tell it to go back to the starting point or go to another point or keep going up till you connect again. So once you rise high you can overcome an obstacle, let’s say go behind a hill or something. You can do that. It has a lot of recovery features and capabilities. We found—more from operational perspectives, this is not in the design—but the troops using it actually in Iraq and Afghanistan, because it’s a ducted fan design so there’s a fan blowing air down kind of like a helicopter. They have been using it to detect IEDs (improvised explosive devices). What they do now is once they suspect a place to have an IED, they actually bring it down and hover it right over that spot. The dirt is loose where someone has implanted an IED. They cover it up with dirt. That dirt on top is loose, that dirt gets blown away and the IED gets exposed. We never designed that into it but when the troops started using it they came up with new and unique ways of doing it. They can hover a few feet above the ground, no problem. So it allows them to literally identify what it is that’s buried there under loose dirt. These are some of the unique features. We have done a demonstration at the Jungle Warfare College near Chhattisgarh. We have done demonstrations with the Indian Air Force. We have done a few demonstrations and made some test systems available. We have had US Army and US Marines—soldiers who actually operated this—come and actually operate it for them. They can talk to the guys who are flying them and get their experience. We haven’t had any success in terms of winning a contract in India. So it is still where it’s at which is we keep looking at opportunities as they come up and who-
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Actually we have slightly different strategy. Our strategy is more on licensing rather than setting up a JV. So we would rather grow the industry here and enable the industry here to develop its own capabilities without having to set up a JV. With a JV, what we find is sometimes, after the intent and the purpose of a JV to develop a certain product or a certain capability but over time, the need for that goes away. Maybe 10-5-20 years down the (line) that technology becomes obsolete or whatever. Then the whole purpose of the JV becomes shaky and - what do you do next? So instead if you give a license to company to manufacture TCAS just as an example. The Indian Navy wants a TCAS and a company acts as, ‘We’ll make it for you’. And so we say, ‘Okay, we have the license to make it’. So, we have the licence to use the technology to them, we’ll show them how to make it. We’ll take their people to our factories and they can see all the equipment that are needed, all the testing etc. And so here’s the procedure, here are the manufacturing manuals, here’s how we do it, here’s all the parts you need, here’s where we buy them from… go ahead and make it. And we’ll have them make it; we’ll certify the first couple of pieces, make sure it meets our requirements and our standards and let them do it themselves. I think it is a much more effective way of transferring the technology and know how into India. It helps the private industry to come up to speed much quicker. There’s no need to set up a JV, its own legal organisation, then its own factory, then its own staff and board and people and all that takes time and effort and it costs. Even in other parts of the world where we have the ability to do higher FDI, we follow this licencing route. And it works successfully for us. So why break something that works.
On the TALON system
It is one of those things that we are looking at licencing and for manufacturing and then for repairs because there it’s something that I think the Indian Armed January 2013
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On licencing over offsets
Primarily if we license it, it will be ToT (Transfer of Technology). For example, if we licence it to someone, we can also buy it back from them. And then it’s a 100 per cent Indian company we are buying from so there’s no ownership. Offsets not necessarily with this particular model but in some cases, yes. (It is) Not always (the case)— depends on the country and the requirements.
On the capabilities of the Indian aerospace industry
Some training is obviously required because they may be making something similar but not the same. They have the basic know how. They understand what the purpose and the intent is. They know how to use it but they have not developed that technology yet. So, we bring that technology. And they may have machinery and equipment to make small engines and now they need to make a bigger engine. They need to buy the same machine but a bigger-sized one. They are not totally unfamiliar with it but it is something new and different. I think of it in those terms. So the basic knowledge and capability is there, whether it’s to make circuit cards or software or machining of parts/mechanical products. The capability is there. Okay, in this case you have to www.geopolitics.in
Lending wings to dreams Honeywell India recently organised India’s first aero club inter-school flying competition to educate school children on the principles of aviation and aerospace modelling. Held at Air Force Bal Bharti School (AFBBS) in partnership with Honeywell International India Private Limited (HIIPL), the competition saw the participation of the Air Force School and the Air Force Golden Jubilee Institute school (AFGJI), that emerged the winner of the 2012 Aero Club flying competition. The Aero Club at AFBBS was launched in July 2011. Honeywell has plans for additional Aero Club programmes in selected schools. To start with, inter-school competitions will be held within the National Capital Region (NCR) and the programme would be later extended to other selected schools across the country. The Chief Guest at the occasion was Air Marshal JN Burma, Air Officerin-Charge Administration, Indian Air Force. Others at the competition included Jim Bujold, President, Honeywell Inc. India and Pritam Bhavnani, President, Honeywell Aerospace India. Speaking on the occasion, Pritam Bhavnani said, “We believe India has a great deal to offer when it comes to developing future generations of aviation engineers. Following our pilot launch, we plan to add further schools in Delhi and Bengaluru to the programme and hold competitions within NCR (National Capital Region).” The Aero Club competition provides young students an opportunity to do what few ever get to do. It challenges
students to design and build their own wood and paper aircraft and fly it in a designated circuit. The aircraft designs must be based on students’ learning and understanding of aerodynamics and principles of flight. The students are provided kits specially designed by Honeywell Aerospace and are asked to challenge each other on their respective theoretical and practical knowledge by flying aircraft to test the air worthiness, speed and handling capabilities. Said Anand Swaroop, Principal, AFBBS: “We are delighted to be the first school in the country hosting the Aero Club’s flying competition. This initiative by Honeywell Aerospace has positively shaped our students’ minds and we have seen overwhelming interest in the event.” The initiative was an extension of Honeywell Hometown Solutions’ Science and Math education focus, a series of programmes created to inspire the next generation of innovators by improving science, technology, engineering and math education around the world. As part of the programme, officials from Honeywell met with students to enrich their theoretical knowledge in physics with practical aspects of flying and aerospace modelling. Based in Phoenix, Arizona, Honeywell’s aerospace business is a leading global provider of integrated avionics, engines, systems and service solutions for aircraft manufacturers, airlines, business and general aviation, military, space and airport operations.
Hemant Rawat
Services want that capability in India. TALON is an acronym for tactical land inertial navigation system. It is used on like rocket launchers and artillery, equipment, tanks and all. So in a GPS-denied environment, they still know where they are, they can figure out their routes and everything. In the case of artillery and rocket launchers, it is also used for targeting and so if you are targeting a particular point and once you fire, you basically give away your position to your enemy. So you want to move. So once you move, then you have to reorient your targeting to hit the same spot again. So you have to know how much you’ve moved and how far you’ve moved and then re-target based on that. So that is what this TALON system does. It also helps recalibrate the firing system and point it accurately at the spot. We will be licencing it. We are identifying the partners and work is in progress.
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make it much more accurate. The process control is much more stringent. Documentation is much more important. So the requirements shipped in terms of what is more important from the aerospace industry perspective or to say automotive or some other industry. But it’s not that different that they are unfamiliar or do not know what they are dealing with.
On building the aerospace industries in India
If you look at most aerospace companies globally—I said most, not all - they are typically a combination of defence and civil. In India the civil aerospace market has just taken off, I would say, it is been about 10 years. Defence was even recently, less than ten years, when it was opened up and even to that very little actual procurement has happened from the private industry on the defence side. In aerospace there’s been none almost. It takes time for this capability to come about. It’s not something that happens overnight. So one is, it needs time; second is, it is a long cycle business as we refer to it. When Boeing started developing the 787—it’s taken 12 years from when they had the concept till the time they’ve delivered the first aircraft. That’s a long process; that’s a long haul. Probably GE spent that much on the engines but Boeing probably spent, I’m guessing, $10-12 billion. But still Boeing had to invest a huge amount of money. Now look at the economic situation in India. The reason I’m telling this is now it is okay, let’s try translate this to India. Say you want to build something here. It’s going to take ten years. Just see the interest on the money you are going to invest is going to double or more the cost because the cost of capital in India is so much higher. If you go to the bank to borrow money, you’re going to pay 15 per cent interest. Right? Boeing goes there, they’re probably pay 5 per cent. So if someone is going to do it here, their cost will just double compared to Boeing. So there’s an economic barrier also here. There is also the time factor which drives the economics up the wrong way because of the cost of money issue. So there are a couple of issues involved here and I think if we could find a way to squeeze the time and do it more efficiently, then the cost of capital would be less of a factor. www.geopolitics.in
On the development of designs by HAL
HAL is not a design authority. Engine development is separate GTRE. It is a separate company, it is not HAL. That’s where the engine development is. HAL’s job is to make the engine, not design it. So they have been doing their job which is making engines. I don’t think HAL was set up to design aircraft or design engines. So when you develop an engine, it’s very expensive, like an aircraft. I mean the A 380, when Airbus first did the initial estimate, when they announced the aircraft, so long ago. They had to build 500 aircraft to break even. And then of course the thing got delayed and the cost overran? So, now they are probably between 700-1000. The point is: now you translate that to India—think five or ten years ago. How many airplanes were there in India? So who’s going to put together an engine for less than 200 aircraft and there are probably six or eight types of aircrafts that make up the 200. So, any one particular type is probably fifty aircraft at best. I mean the economics just does not work. Actually I think in aviation manufacturing, India can do much better than some of the other high volume stuff. Because in aviation the volumes aren’t very high—I mean, Airbus makes 42 A320s a month. That’s the highest volume aircraft in the world today: 1½ a day. Then you go to a car factory and they are making 1½ per second or something. That is the difference. So, the volumes are much lower and, therefore, I think it’s easy to ramp up the capability and the capacity. When you think of a car, you have to make the parts accurately, high quality and high volume. But in aerospace the high volume part goes away, now it’s more accuracy and quality.
On the objectives of HAL
They’re actually a good company. If you
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go to their website and you look at what is the objective of this company and what is their goal, what is their mission? It is meant for a different purpose and that purpose is to provide the Indian Air Force with capability in the country. That is its mission. Now if we start comparing them to a Boeing or to an Airbus who’s more in a commercial world operating in a completely different environment and with a different purpose in life, it’s a bad comparison. I think that is an unfair kind of analysis people do of HAL. And the purpose of HAL must be clear. If we understand the purpose, then is it meeting the purpose or not? And that I think is the fair question that can be asked. But to compare them to another commercial entity that has a different mission and purpose in life, I don’t think that’s fair.
On the Honeywell centres in India
We have engineering centres in India that do the design work, the software and hardware design and that has been going on for more than ten to twelve years now. That’s a captive entity. It’s a Honeywell company on the R&D side. In terms of the product manufacturing side, making of parts and components, etc. that feed into our supply chain for manufacturing, whether it’s engines from HAL or engines parts from HAL or other private companies—we have SAMTEL displays from them, etc. There we have licenced technology or we buy the product. We’ll come in and share our technology and share our drawings, help them to get up to speed and then export those products from India. For example on the B787, Honeywell supplies the flight control system. This is the auto pilot so to speak that controls the airplane in flight. About 70 per cent of that work was done in Bangalore. January 2013
DEF BIZ India, Ukraine ink defence cooperation agreement
PIB
CRUCIAL TIE-UP: Union Minister for Science and Technology and Earth Sciences, S. Jaipal Reddy (extreme right) and the Minister for Foreign Affairs of Ukraine, Kostyantyn I. Gryschenko (extreme left) signing the agreement in New Delhi recently.
A broad defence cooperation agreement was among five pacts signed following delegation-level talks between the visiting Ukrainian President, Viktor Yanukovych, and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently. With Ukraine having consolidated its military enterprises into bodies under governmental control, on the lines of what Russia did to its military-industrial complex a decade ago, New Delhi feels the path has been smoothened for a more intimate defence relationship. Instead of dealing with a number
of defence enterprises scattered over Ukraine, India will find it easier to conduct focussed negotiations, which could help it get a better deal. During the Soviet times, Ukraine was home to 30 per cent of the country’s military industrial complex and it is now attempting to modernise its defence industry. In this scenario, India senses it will be able to duplicate its approach towards Russia of moving away from the buyer-seller relationship and going in for an R&D-joint production model such as the pacts with Moscow for Fifth Generation Fighter
Aircraft, Military Transport Aircraft and BrahMos. Ukraine is already modernising India’s 100-plus fleet of military transport aircraft and has been active in providing engines for naval vessels and military spares. Ukraine has assured India of its support in a bid to join four international export control organisations, including the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group. Kiev voluntarily gave up the nuclear weapons arsenal it had inherited from the Soviet Union and its backing to India in this respect is considered important.
COMING: Upgrades for army combat kit Future ready: An Indian soldier equipped for battle in the Himalayan regions
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INDIAN ARMY
The combat kit used by the Indian army is slated to receive major upgrades in addition to newer and more advanced weapons and assault rifles. This would enable the soldiers to perform operations with higher efficiency. The upgrades include new ammunition pouches, backpacks, combat shoes as well as the sleeping kit with long-lasting insecticidal nets and a much lighter blanket made of fine quality wool. In addition, soldiers will be provided with multi-purpose ponchos to replace the older version of
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raincoats in use at present. A total of 11 lakh soldiers will be provided with the improved kits, a huge jump from the initial proposal of equipping a mere 4 lakh combatants. The total cost of the project was not known. January 2013
TATA
HEMANT RAWAT
defence exports: `997 crore
Boeing keen on MMRCA deal
TATA
Export quality: Photographs of defence vehicles meant for exports produced by Tata Motors.
Defence Minister A K Antony said in December 2012 that the total figure of India’s military exports stood at `997 crore ($184 million) during the last three years. He pointed out that there was a greater focus now on indigenous design, development and manufacture of defence equipment as per the Defence Production Policy. The exports comprised primarily of products made by ordnance factories and public sector undertakings belonging to the Indian Ministry of Defence (MoD). Private sector companies also contributed to the exports. The Defence Minster stated that since May 2001, the
Indian defence industry was open to 100 per cent investment from the country’s private sector enterprises while foreign direct investment (FDI) was permissible up to 26 per cent. Tata Power’s Strategic Electronics Division (SED), for example, has been involved in defence systems and engineering for over four decades. It has worked in collaboration with the MoD to provide products and solutions for the defence requirements of the country such as electronic warfare systems, GPS-based vehicle navigation and tracking systems and avionics systems and equipment for aircraft.
Boeing has planned to float a tender of F/A 18 Super Hornet for the Medium Multi-Role Combat (MMRCA) project once again as the Indian Defence Ministry is set to increase the number of its MMRCA intake from 126 to 200. The estimated worth of the contract would be $15$20 billion for another 74 fighters and also included the delivery of P8I maritime surveillance aircraft and 22 Apache combat choppers.
no to MahindraRafael JV
The Indian government has decided to permit private local shipbuilders to take part in a tender to build six submarines for $12 billion. The proposal, named Project 75-1, was a part of the Indian Navy’s strategy to add six submarines. However, the first two subs would be procured from foreign companies. Defence Minister A K Antony said the private sector was being associated “as per their capability and as per Joint Venture (JV) policy promulgated by Department of Defence Production”. It is still uncertain whether this decision meant that private yard involvement was guaranteed or would just be considered by government authorities. The defence ministry’s www.geopolitics.in
top weapon-buying agency, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC), had approved the production of the six subs, which will be armed with nuclear and attack missiles and air independent propulsion. As per the proposal cleared by DAC in 2011, four submarines would be built by state-owned Mazagon Docks Limited (MDL) and Hindustan Shipyard Limited (HSL), based at Vishakhapatnam. However, India’s private-sector shipyards voiced their demand that they be considered for the project. Domestic shipyards such as Larsen & Toubro, Pipavav Shipyard and ABG Shipyards argued that they had upgraded their facilities to undertake warship and submarine construction.
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Natan Flayer wikipedia
India open to subs from private yards RED SIGNAL: Rafael develops and produces fighting-technologies that would have been brought to India by M&M. Photo shows an Israeli soldier with a Spike antitank missile launcher developed by Rafael
The Indian Government refused to give the nod to Mahindra & Mahindra Limited to form a joint venture with Israel’s Rafael Advanced Defense Systems Ltd. The government’s decision was announced in December 2012. Both companies would have invested about `1 billion ($18.2 million) for the production of naval systems. January 2013
DEF BIZ
hal
MOVING AHEAD: S Subramanyan, HAL Managing Director (MiG) signing the contract for Su-30 MKI with A A Mikheev, Deputy General Director of Rosobornexport. Dr R K Tyagi, Chairman, HAL (third from left) is also seen
HAL signs up for 42 Su-30s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) signed a contract for 42 Su-30 MKI frontline fighter aircraft with the Ministry of Defence and Russian firm Rosoboronexport in New Delhi recently. “HAL’s total responsibility for this supersonic multirole aircraft has now gone up to 222. This will further boost our confidence and operations as we have already delivered 119 Su-30 aircraft to the Air Force. We will continue to contribute to the country’s defence preparedness”, said Dr R K Tyagi, Chairman, HAL. The deal was inked by Dr Tyagi on behalf of HAL with the Ministry of Defence. S Subramanyan, Managing Director of HAL’s MiG Complex signed the contract with A A Mikheev, Deputy General Director of Rosobornexport. Dr Tyagi also mentioned that 157 Indian vendors were involved in providing 13,350 components of the aircraft while another 19,450 components were manufactured at HAL’s Nasik and Koraput divisions. The Su-30 MKI project provides a solid platform to indigenous manufacturing and technical competence creating hundreds of direct and indirect jobs. HAL’s hand-holding with private
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entrepreneurs has also ensured creation of a strong infrastructure and quality avionics products. The Su-30 MKI is a two-seater, highly manoeuvrable, supersonic, multirole aircraft for day and night operations in all weather conditions. The aircraft is fitted with two turbojet AL-31FP engines and is equipped with state-of-the-art
avionics from Russian, Western and indigenous sources. The project has enabled HAL to master niche technologies of aircraft building and absorb new technologies in manufacturing areas like machining, forming, welding, assembly, testing and aircraft system checks. The aircraft airframes are made at Nasik, engines at Koraput, accessories at Hyderabad (communication and navigation), hydraulic, pneumatic and fuel aggregates and instruments at Lucknow and avionic displays and INGPS at Korwa. Overhauling and repairs of Su-30 MKI have already commenced in the dedicated lines set up at Nasik.
FIGHTER EXTRAORDINAIRE Sukhoi Su-30MKI[3] (NATO reporting name: Flanker-H) is an air superiority fighter jointly developed by Russia’s Sukhoi and India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) for the Indian Air Force (IAF). A variant of the Sukhoi Su-30, it is a heavy, all-weather, long-range fighter. The Su-30MKI was jointly designed by Russia’s Sukhoi Corporation and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited. The MKI’s airframe evolved from the Sukhoi Su-27 but most of the avionics were developed in India. Reputed to be more advanced than the basic Su-30MK, the Chinese Su-30MKK/MK2, and the Malaysian Su-30MKM, the Indian Air Force’s Sukhoi Su-30MKI is a generation ahead of Su-30MKK/MK2 fighters of China.
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January 2013
Aerial Boost: Elbit Systems to upgrade Israeli C-130H (Hercules) transport Aircrafts
Elbit Systems has been chosen by the Israel Ministry of Defence (IMoD) to upgrade the C-130H (Hercules) transport aircraft. The project will increase the operational life of the aircraft and considerably improve its operational capability, especially in precision flying, low-level night flight and operations in turbulent weather conditions. After incorporating the upgrades, the aircraft would also possess higher flight safe and reduce operating costs. This will be accomplished by the introduction of cutting-edge digital systems to substitute the outmoded analog systems that were said to be undependable and much costlier. Yoram Shmuely, Elbit Systems Aero-
space Division’s Co-General Manager, said, “We are very pleased to perform this project. The proposed upgrade utilizes systems, subsystems and applications being deployed on the most advanced platforms and military and civil upgrade programs in order to meet current operational needs and enable integration of future operational and technology capabilities.” Renowned in the aircraft upgrade industry, Elbit Systems has continued to be the leader in the world market. It has utilised its expertise to integrate and develop state-of-the-art electronic defence systems by extending its line to include advanced features like data link systems, data fusion expert systems and
HEMANT RAWAT
Elbit Systems awarded Israeli MoD contract 3-D digital maps. Most of the large-scale programs undertaken by this defence electronics manufacturer and integrator involve multidisciplinary integration and lifecycle support. At the same time, it has forged numerous partnerships with local enterprises, thereby increasing the possibility of exchanging and accumulating expertise in the field. Among its recent endeavours is its project to improve tactical low-level flight safety for military transport planes through a collaboration with Northrop Grumman to develop Terrain Following and Terrain Avoidance (TF/TA) System. The system will help pilots to fly and manoeuvre with greater safety in adverse weather during the day as well as night.
Markus Bucher gets Pilatus Aircraft top job Markus Bucher is set to take over as Pilatus Aircraft’s Chief Executive Officer (CEO) and Chairman of the executive board. His predecessor Oscar J. Schwenk will continue as the Chairman of the board of directors. Bucher had worked in myriad profiles during his career with Pilatus spanning quarter of a century, including Production Logistics, and Customer
www.geopolitics.in
Service, with managerial experience in Aircraft Assembly and Maintenance Units. His accomplishments include several important international customer projects as well as the successful implementation of many complex intraorganization projects. He was appointed as the Chief Operating Officer (COO) in July 2011 and established his reputation for being as-
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siduous in his work. His astute managerial abilities provided effective solutions to a cross-section of issues and tasks to facilitate the efficient operation of the company. Schwenk expressed his approval of his successor’s appointment by saying, “I’m delighted we’ve been able to fill this important post with an experienced, pro-active Pilatus employee who is both intimately familiar with our customers’ needs and acquainted in detail with our internal processes.”
January 2013
DEF BIZ Pilatus goes for RC systems
Rockwell Collins said that its EP-8000 image generator system employs a new paradigm for highend training applications. The EP-80 utilises second-generation environment processor real-time software to provide full functionality within a high-resolution, round-earth environment. The company said that the EP-80, compatible across the complete line of EP image generators, will allow customers to combine Personal Computer - Commercial Off-The-Shelf (COTS PC) training devices with high performance systems, ensuring a wide range of training capabilities with the help of the same real-time software, databases and the host interfaces.
New foundation head Fabrice Brégier, Airbus President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) has been appointed as the Chairman of the Airbus Corporate Foundation. Brégier succeeded Tom Enders, who is now the CEO of the parent European Aeronautic Defence and Space (EADS) Company. Enders had headed the Foundation since its inception in 2008 and was appointed its Honorary Chairman by the members.
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Lockheed Martin
Pilatus has also decided to opt for Rockwell Collins simulation and training products and systems. LeAnn Ridgeway, Vice President and General Manager of Simulation & Training Solutions for Rockwell Collins said, “Pilatus chose Rockwell Collins based on our track record as a proven integrator of the most advanced simulation and training products.” “We back that up with our flexible approach and by supporting our systems with the global reach of our engineering and operations teams,” he added.
Protecting the skies: Lockheed Martin’s Medium Extended Air Defence System (MEADS) successfully intercepts an aerial target
Lockheed conducts MEADS test Lockheed Martin conducted the first successful intercept test flight against an airborne target with the Medium Extended Air Defence System’s (MEADS) recently. The target, an MQM-107, a turbojet powered, target towing drone, was successfully detected, tracked, intercepted and destroyed by the system. This substantiated MEADS’s capability to provide a full-perimeter, 360 degree shield from approaching threats. Developed to minimise casualties and damage from ballistic and cruise missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) as well as aircraft in the event of an aerial offensive, the MEADS is a cutting-edge ground-mobile air and missile defence system. The features included in the test configuration were a networked MEADS battle manager, lightweight launcher that fired a Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) Missile Segment Enhancement (MSE) missile round and MEADS Multifunction Fire Control Radar (MFCR), which helped the weapon to track and
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intercept its target. North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) MEADS Management Agency General Manager Gregory Kee said, “Today’s successful flight test further demonstrates MEADS’s ability to identify, track, engage and defeat targets attacking from any direction using a single mobile launcher.” “Today’s successful intercept proves MEADS’s advertised capabilities are real,” he added. An over-the-shoulder manoeuvre was also carried out by the PAC-3 MSE missile at the time of the test to intercept the target attacking from behind the MEADS platform. Once it becomes operational, MEADS will replace the Patriot missile systems in the United States and Germany, as well as the Nike Hercules system currently employed by Italy. The system was designed to provide increased area coverage with fewer system assets, thus reducing the requirement for deployed personnel and equipment.
January 2013
US sends drone into orbit spacecraft had also spent about a year in orbit. The plane is 29 feet in length, about one-quarter of the size of National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) old space and is able to land automatically on a runaway. The military isn’t saying much if anything about this new secret mission known as OTV-3, or Orbital Test Vehicle, flight No. 3. In fact, launch commentary ended 17 minutes into the flight and a news blackout followed.
Lockheed Martin
The United States military launched its clandestine unmanned X-37B space plane into orbit in last month from Cape Canaveral with the help of an Atlas V rocket. The total cost of the project to develop the plane was $1 billion. The United States Air Force (USAF) refused to disclose the purpose of the vehicle or the duration for which it would be in orbit. This is the second flight for the X-37B following the one in 2010 which last for a period of seven months. Another X-37B
Avcorp conducts maiden flights
RAF’s ATLAS The Royal Air Force’s (RAF) next generation military transport aircraft has officially been named Atlas. The aircraft, which has until now been known as the A400M, will replace the RAF’s existing C-130 Hercules fleet and, along with the Voyager and C-17, will provide the UK military’s future air transport force. The UK is buying 22 of the aircraft from Airbus Military, and the first Atlas is expected to be delivered to the RAF in 2014.Able to carry twice as much as the
Hercules, Atlas can transport 32 tonnes of cargo over a range of 4,500 km, providing unprecedented capability to support the UK Armed Forces. It can move up to 116 paratroopers and large armoured vehicles such as Mastiffs as well as vast amounts of humanitarian and disaster relief. The aircraft’s ability to land on semi-permanent runways and rough ground means Atlas can fly its cargo into the centre of operations.
Avcorp declared that it had conducted two successful flights of an F-35 Carrier Variant (CV) which were equipped with Out-Board Wing (OBW) assemblies manufactured by the company. the controls during the second flight. Mark Van Rooij , President and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Avcorp said, “Avcorp is very pleased to see these major milestones achieved.” “This marks the successful culmination of a rigorous New Product Introduction (NPI) Program which included the transfer of significant technological advancements from both our Customer, BAE Systems and from the Prime Contractor, Lockheed Martin,” he added.
boeing
india gets first p-8I
Boeing recently made an on-site delivery of the first P-8I aircraft to the Indian Navy in Seattle. India will receive the aircraft and two more of its eight contracted P-8Is in 2013. The programme is progressing on schedule as Boeing assembles the fourth and fifth P-8Is, that are designed for long-range maritime reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare.
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January 2013
DEF BIZ Kazan’s Mi-17B-5s come to India
bel
Bell Helicopter recently signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Bengaluru-based Dynamatic Technologies where Dynamatic will act as a sub-contractor for its Bell 407 Air Frame Cabin Assembly, Air Frame Component and Details. The estimated business volume of the work proposed is approximately $243 million over a ten-year period starting in 2013. Pointing out that Bell Helicopter was continuing its investment in India, Rishi Malhotra, Bell Helicopter’s General Manager in India also said that the Dynamatic tie-up was an “important step forward in expanding our customer service, engineering and manufacturing capabilities in India”. For Bell, India represented a significant growth opportunity for both sales and manufacturing. Dynamatic has qualified itself as an eco-system of sub-tier suppliers under the Bell Production System and has commenced trial production of airframe components and detailed parts. Commercial production, which is scheduled to start shortly at the company’s aeronautic manufacturing facilities at Dynamatic Park Peenya, will be undertaken at Dynamatic Aerotropolis, Devanahalli, in the last quarter of 2013. The MoU, which is an important milestone in India’s rise as an industrial partner to the global aerospace industry, will build upon Dynamatic’s existing relationships with Airbus, Boeing, Spirit AeroSystems (Europe) and Hindustan Aeronautics and further strengthen its leadership position in the Indian aerospace industry. www.geopolitics.in
Russian Helicopters has delivered another consignment of Mi-17B-5 helicopters to India as part of a contract signed by Rosoboronexport and India’s Ministry of Defence in 2008. The helicopters were built by Kazan Helicopter Plant, a Russian Helicopters company. The final delivery under the contract is scheduled for 2013. The Mi-8/17 series of helicopters is one of the symbols of Russia’s aviation industry. The latest models combine advanced technologies with years of operational experience accumulated by their predecessors. These advanced helicopters, the best in their class, are equipped with the latest navigational and on-board systems, and maintain high levels of reliability, simplicity and ease of operation that generations of operators have come to expect. They can fly a wide range of missions in conditions ranging from tropical and maritime climates to high altitude and desert environments. The Mi-17B-5 has been built to the requirements of the Indian Ministry of Defence and is one of the most advanced helicopters on the global marketplace. Lockheed Martin
Bell tie-up with Bengaluru’s Dynamatic
The choppers are equipped with new VK-2500 engines that have an electronic control system and deliver enhanced power performance. This is particularly important in hot climates and at high altitudes. Additionally, if one engine fails, the reserve power provided by the second engine ensures safe operation through to landing. The on-board systems allow the helicopter to operate day and night in all-weather conditions. A new navigation system has been developed for this version of the Mi-17B-5 that shows all of the piloting and navigation information on four multifunctional display screens, significantly reducing the crew’s workload. The medium multirole Mi-17 is the export version of the Mi-8. Their versatility and high performance have made these helicopters one of the most popular Russian-built helicopters around the world. More than 12000 Mi-8/17s are in operation in more than 110 countries. The advanced versions of the Mi-8/17 are built at the Kazan Helicopter Plant and the Ulan-Ude Aviation Plant.
F-35 crosses milestone
The Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II programme surpassed 5,000 flight hours in November 2012. This milestone was reached by the combined F-35 System Development and Demonstration (SDD) aircraft. All three variants, the F-35A Conventional Takeoff and Landing (CTOL), the Short Takeoff/ Vertical Landing (STOVL) and Carrier Variant (CV), participated in achievement of this goal.
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January 2013
needed: more defence R&D
Pratyush to lead Boeing Boeing recently named Pratyush ‘Prat’ Kumar as President of Boeing India. He joins Boeing with significant business leadership experience and insight into the Indian market, having served in senior executive positions at GE Transportation since 2003. Kumar succeeds Dinesh Keskar, who last year returned to Boeing Commercial Airplanes in a senior sales leadership role. As the company’s senior incountry leader, Kumar is responsible for leading the development and implementation of the Boeing India strategy. He will coordinate business activities, align priorities, expand the Boeing presence and develop, maintain and enhance local relationships and in-country partnerships with India’s business and government stakeholders. Boeing also appointed Ashmita Sethi as Communications Director for India. She will lead the company’s media relations, acting as Principal Spokesperson. Her extensive strategic communications experience and expertise in the Indian aerospace and defence sector includes 11 years at Rolls-Royce, most recently as Vicepresident (Communications and Public Affairs) for the India region.
DCNS
hemant rawat
Navy Chief Admiral D K three per cent by developed Joshi emphasized the need countries,” he said. And to raise expenditure on though the private sector Research and Develophad a major share in R & ment (R&D) in the defence D funding in the advanced sector. That would help nations, in India, it was only bring about indeginisation around 25 per cent. in the sector. Speaking at The Admiral also said a seminar, ‘Swavalamban’ that since the size of India’s on ‘Indeginisation through armed forces and the innovation in Indian diverse range of capabilities defence sector’, Admiral that needed to be developed Admiral D K Joshi, Navy Chief Joshi pointed out that R&D in was huge, it was necessary any industry—especially in the defence for the private sector to enter R & D. As sector—was resource-intensive. “Current- for indigenisation, of the 44 ships and ly, India spends only about 0.9 per cent submarines on order, 42 were being conof its GDP on R&D, compared to about structed in Indian shipyards.
India’s defence research wing, The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has established a research and innovation centre at the Indian Institute of Technology—Madras (IIT—M) Research Park for the purpose of focussed research to aid the armed forces. V K Saraswat, Scientific Advisor to the Defence Minister, and Secretary, Defence Research and Development inaugurated the centre in December 2012. The DRDO said the centre had been www.geopolitics.in
hemant rawat
Defence research centre in Chennai
V K Saraswat, Scientific Advisor to Defence Minister
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formed to provide direction in defencerelated research in collaboration with scholars belonging to the academia, industry experts and researchers. Initially, the research and development work will be concentrated on semi-conductor device, tracked vehicle system, speech recognition, modelling and simulation of microstructure of materials, and piezo electric devices. Other significant areas of research would also include nano-aluminium based solid propellants, combustion in stability in gas turbine engine, silicon nano, photonics and chip design for avionics. The setting up of future research facilities at other renowned institutions will depend on the success of this new research and innovation centre, the DRDO said. January 2013
DEF BIZ
white House
Head in the clouds: Finmeccanica delivers luxury choppers to IAF for VVIPs
Now, new choppers for vVIPs Russia’s dominance in transporting VVIPs like the President and the Prime Minister is in its final stages. The government ordered a dozen Italian-made helicopters in 2010 for VVIPs and the first of them will be flying in even as this issue reaches our readers. Two others will arrive sometime in the year. The Italianmade helicopters will replace the old Russian Mi-8s and Mi-17s that are with the Indian Air Force’s Communication Squadron, that is responsible for flying the President, PM and other VVIPs. Made by the Italian company Finmeccanica, the `4,000-crore deal for the 12 AW-101 AgustaWestland helicopters has seen many ups and downs. The deal was under a cloud because allegations of bribery had been aimed at the company that prompted the Indian government to institute an internal inquiry. It was only after the Indian Embassy in Rome was unable to substantiate any wrongdoing in the helicopter deal, that the Defence Minister gave his nod. According to the Defence Ministry, the decision to order the VVIP choppers www.geopolitics.in
had been taken quite a few years ago and between 2002 and 2004, the then NDA government had changed specifications and requirements. Among the specifications was a demand from the Air Force that said that the choppers would be able to fly at about 18,000 feet. It was only then that the government realised that there was only one manufacturer that made helicopters that could fly at 18,000 ft. Soon enough, those who were responsible for the order also realized that VVIPs would rarely fly at such heights — and if at all they did, they would use bigger planes. It was then decided — after consultations in which the then Principal Secretary to the Prime Minister and National Security Advisor Brajesh Mishra was also present — that the order would be for helicopters that could fly at heights of 13,500 ft. Finmeccanica was given the order for the helicopters but before it could deliver one helicopter, allegations of bribery against the company came up. While the Italian government has been looking into the allegations, on
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his part Defence Minister A K Antony found no evidence about the allegations of bribery. He could have cancelled the deal but he went ahead. Of the 12 choppers, eight will be for VVIPs. The remaining four will be used for non-VIPs. The VVIP ones may not be as technologically advanced as US President Barack Obama’s ‘Marine One’ but they have the bells and whistles that go with VVIP aircraft: missile-approach warners, chaff and flare dispensers and infra-red electronic counter-measures. Perhaps, one of the main reasons why the AW-101s were chosen came from the Special Protection Group incharge of the Prime Minister’s security. These choppers have ‘a high tail boom’. Simply put, vehicles carrying the Prime Minister can stop at the rear exit staircase with little or no security threat from anyone nearby. And to top it all, the AW-101s will accommodate only 10 passengers in the VVIP configuration instead of the usual 40. Among the other contenders for the VVIP Specials were the Sikorskys S-92 Superhawks. January 2013
Russia, India move to produce choppers President Vladimir Putin to Delhi, Russian Helicopters (a subsidiary of Oboronprom, part of Russian Technologies State Corporation) and Elcom Systems Private Limited (part of the Indian Sun Group) signed an agreement to set up a modern industrial facility for the manufacturing of Russian Helicopter models: the Ka- and Mi- brands. The joint venture will have the capacity to produce key helicopter units and carry out final assembly of the machines as well as engage in ground and flight testing. It is expected that the enterprise will start with production of components for the multirole Ka-226T helicopter. The agreement will also serve as an industrial base for hi-tech Russian rotorcraft products in India. “India is a traditional partner of Russian Helicopters in terms of helicopter deliveries. The creation of a joint Russian-Indian enterprise marks a new stage and also a logical continuation of our joint efforts in light of the growing demand for Russian helicopter models,” said Dmitry Petrov, CEO of Russian Helicopters. According to Petrov, the joint venture will help drive the development of India’s aerospace industry and provide for effective application of advanced Russian technologies. It will also make it possible to organise the training of Indian engineers and promote the development of highly qualified personnel across the entire production chain. Additionally, the enterprise will be eligible to implement offset-projects under various procurement tenders in India where Russian rotorcraft are involved.
mil
The Mil Moscow Helicopter Plant—the world-famous designer and developer of helicopters including the Mi-8, Mi24 and Mi-26 models—is 65 years old. Named after the distinguished engineer Mikhail Mil, the plant was established in the year 1947. Today, the plant is one of Russian Helicopters’ most important intellectual assets and is a key component of the helicopter innovation cluster that is being established at the company’s National Helicopter Manufacturing Centre in the town of Tomilino, Moscow Region. The centre is the focal point of the bureau’s scientific, design and engineering resources and will also be home to the Kamov Design Bureau. The Mil plant has produced some unique and legendary brands. Among them is the Mi-8/17 series, the world’s most popular helicopter, with more than 12,000 produced over 50 years. There is also the Mi-35M, the only military transport helicopter in its class; the Mi-26(T), the world’s heaviest-lift transport helicopter with a 20-tonne lift capacity and the new Mi-28NE Night Hunter, which boasts unique manoeuvrability and can fly military missions around the clock in all-weather conditions. The priority areas for the Mil Plant include the planned Mi-38, the Mi-171A2 and advanced high-speed helicopters. The Russian Advanced Commercial Helicopter (RACHEL), the medium advanced high-speed helicopter project presented to the global commercial market at the Farnborough International Airshow, is a breakthrough innovation that could have a profound influence on the future of helicopter manufacturing globally. During the recent visit of Russian
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More time for 197 chopper deal The Defence Ministry has asked the two vendors in the race for the procurement of 197 light helicopters to extend the validity of their commercial offer because the tender process was delayed. According to defence ministry sources, one of the firms, European Eurocopter told the Ministry that “in the absence of any visibility regarding the finalisation of the case, we are unable to grant a further extension to our commercial offer”. The other company in the over 48-month-old tender is Russian Kamov, which is offering its Ka-226 Sergei choppers. The 197 light helicopters are being procured by the Army and the IAF to replace the vintage Cheetah/Chetak fleet of choppers, which are critical for providing supplies to troops deployed in Siachen Glacier and other high altitude areas. In a letter written to Director General (Acquisition), S B Agnihotri, Eurocopter has said it shares concern regarding the delay of the ongoing procurement case considering the importance of this programme for the Indian armed forces. The field evaluation trials have been concluded at the end of 2010 but there is no indication concerning the start of the commercial negotiations which has become a serious concern for them, the European company told the ministry. Eurocopter has sought a “clarification from the Defence Ministry regarding the expected time frame of this procurement programme, the sources said. The trials of the two helicopters in the race were completed in December 2010. Army Aviation Corps had submitted trial reports to the Defence Ministry after the trials. The project had been delayed by more than five years as the earlier tender had to be cancelled at the last moment in 2007 after a five-year process. January 2013
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us navy
CLASSIFIED NO LONGER: A file photo shows US Chairman of the Joint Chief of Staff, Admiral Mike Mullen, reviewing a Russian military guard of honour at St Petersburg on May 6, 2011.
Russia: The siege within
Efforts to reorganize and modernize the Russian military have generated an increased demand for manpower and modern equipment. The country’s widening demographic crisis and procurement challenges, however, threaten to seriously undermine these efforts, or so argues Dmitry Gorenburg
O
ver the last four years, the Russian government has undertaken an unprecedented effort to reform the structure of its military. As part of this effort, it has sought to begin the process of shifting the military to a more professional manning structure, providing it with modern weapons and equipment, and reorganizing it to be prepared to fight the conflicts it is most likely to face in the coming decades. While the reorganization
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process has proceeded fairly quickly, a demographic crisis and continuing problems in the defence industry will present grave challenges to the military modernization effort in the coming decade.
Military reorganization
At the start of the reform process, Russian military forces had few combat-ready units; most units were staffed only with officers, with the expectation that these officers would command units made up
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of reservists called up in the event of a major conflict. Planners expected it to take a full year to bring the military to full readiness in such circumstances. This type of structure worked for the Soviet military engaged in the Cold War confrontation with NATO but did not make sense for a military that expected to be involved primarily in local, counter-guerilla and counter-terrorism operations. Being prepared for this type of conflict leads to far less stringent requirements in terms of January 2013
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A continuing manpower shortage
Despite the need for an increase in the number of professional soldiers, the Russian military has largely failed to resolve its www.geopolitics.in
manpower shortage. Although it officially has a one-million-man army, actual staffing is around 750,000. The gap between the official position and reality, of course, implies that 25 per cent of billets are currently vacant. This does not bode well for the concept of fully manned permanent readiness brigades, which have been at the core of recent military reform efforts. The manpower shortfall is due to a combination of a rapid decline in the number of 18-year-old men eligible for conscription and an inability to recruit enough contract soldiers to fill the gap in the number of conscripts. Presently, there are no more than 700,000 men reaching the age of 18, of whom only about 400,000 are considered draft-eligible because of various deferments and health exemptions. Furthermore, the severe drop in the birth rate in the 1990s means that within the next two years, the number of 18-yearolds will decline by a further 40 per cent leaving less than 300,000 draft eligible 18-year-olds. The number of conscripts called up annually has already declined to 270,000.
voice of america
army strength and mobilization capability, while emphasizing greater professionalism and combat readiness on the part of the military. To better prepare the military to fight in 21st century conflicts, the Ministry of Defence mandated major changes in command structure to improve command and control. As part of this plan, traditional military districts were eliminated in favor of four Unified Strategic Commands (USCs). Each USC was given responsibility for all conventional military units in its region, in both peacetime and wartime. This was the first step of an effort to create truly joint military forces in which troops belonging to various services are under a single command and able to easily communicate with each other. As part of this change, the military shifted from a fourtier to a three-tier command structure, with combined arms armies and brigades below the USCs. The goal was to make the military more compact and mobile and to allow for rapid troop deployment, all as part of an effort to prepare the military to fight smaller local wars, rather than the huge frontal conflicts of the past. The second part of the reorganization involved making the brigade the basic unit of the military. The reform created modular brigades that combine three infantry or tank battalions with dedicated reconnaissance, artillery, air defence, logistics, and repair units. These brigades are much more self-sufficient in combat than a regiment, but at the same time more mobile than a division. The reorganization process was largely completed in 2011. However, the Ministry of Defence is still facing challenges in maintaining the newly formed brigades at a high readiness level and in providing communications equipment to facilitate joint operations involving multiple armed forces branches. These challenges are related to the two greatest problems facing the Russian military: inadequate staffing and outdated equipment.
Alexei Druzhinin
NOT ON THE SAME PAGE: Russian President Vladimir Putin with former Defence Minister Anatoly E. Serdyukov in happier times. Putin fired Serdyukov for corruption in November 2012.
READY FOR MODERNISATION: The Russian government has decided to spend billions of dollars on weapons modernization by 2020 but will it solve problems?
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January 2013
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ITAR-TASS wikipedia
SHOW OF FORCE: Russian paratroopers at a military parade dedicated to the 60th Anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War.
Some politicians have sought to address the manpower shortage by proposing an increase in the length of conscript service to either 18 months or two years. This is a politically unpopular measure that will most likely lead to popular protest. Given the fragility of the current political regime, it seems fairly unlikely. Furthermore, if it happens, it will signal the rollback of military reform and the victory of the old guard over the reformers. The military is instead banking on vastly increasing the number of contract soldiers serving in the military. This has been the stated goal of military reformers for many years. But so far they have little to show for their efforts. In fact, over the last 15 years Russia has actually regressed in its ability to attract professional soldiers. In 1995, the Russian military had 380,000 contract soldiers and NCOs in service. Because of a combination of financial problems and resistance by senior generals, by 2003 this figure had shrunk to135,000. Since then, there has been a modest increase to 190,000. The MOD has set a target of reaching 425,000 contract soldiers by adding 50,000 per year starting in 2012. To this end, it has increased salaries and improved living conditions for soldiers. Despite these actions, it is falling short of its recruiting targets for this year and is not assured of continued financing for contract soldier recruitment going forward. Given its manpower www.geopolitics.in
problems, the military would do better to abandon the fiction that the Russian military has one million personnel and admit that 800,000 is a more realistic target going forward.
Outdated armaments
The Russian military is also facing a crisis in its equipment. Because of a lack of funding, the military received virtually no new equipment between 1993 and 2008. As a result, the vast majority of its armaments are both physically old and based on outdated designs. To deal with this problem, the Russian government has begun to implement a 10-year and $650 billion State Armament Program. The program’s goal is to ensure that 70 per cent of the Russian military’s equipment is modern by 2020. The program’s top priorities are to re-equip the Strategic Rocket Forces, the air force, the air defence and space forces, and to provide more advanced command and control equipment for the military. The program suffers from a number of problems. First of all, when Russian officials discuss their goals for procuring modernized weaponry over the next 10 years, they never define their terms. They do not have a list of what types of armaments are considered modern. In some cases, systems that are based on 20-50 year old designs are described as modern. This inevitably leads to the conclusion that the MOD is implicitly defining mod-
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ern equipment as any equipment that was procured in the last few years, rather than equipment actually based on new designs. More importantly, analysts have grave doubts that the program will actually be carried out. Prominent Russian political figures have argued that the government cannot afford to spend such sums on rearmament given the need to revitalize the country’s civilian infrastructure and the need to fund social programs in a deteriorating economic environment. Last summer, senior officials were considering a decrease in procurement funding for the next several years. Some sources indicated that the entire State Armament Program would simply be extended for three years—that is, it would run through 2023 rather than 2020. Even if procurement funding is maintained at planned levels, there are grave doubts about the Russian defence industry’s ability to produce modern weapons. Only a few enterprises have modernized their facilities and begun to work on new designs. The rest have outdated equipment and are not prepared to fulfill the military’s needs. Most are continuing to lose skilled workers because the civilian sector can pay higher salaries. This is in addition to the disappearance of an entire age cohort (ages 30-50) who didn’t go into the field over the last two decades because of its lack of financing and low prestige. Even companies that have modernized are dependent on subcontractors for their supply chains, and these subcontractors are often in much worse shape. There are also problems with the defence industry’s organization. As part of Russia’s overall recentralization under Putin, the Soviet-era sectoral ministries were largely restored as holding companies (United Shipbuilding, United Aircraft, Rostekhnologii). Many of the constituent units of these companies are dysfunctional—with the more effective units used to keep the effectively bankrupt ones afloat. All this means that the modernization of the industry has only barely begun. And it is difficult to understand how the State Armament Program can be fulfilled without the modernization of the defence industry. (ISN)
January 2013
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DPR MOD
DEFBIZ
Needed: Synching def power I India has long believed that an advanced and self-sufficient defence sector is essential to its status as an emerging power. Yet, as Richard A. Bitzinger writes, the country remains saddled with a bloated and inefficient defence-industrial base that has contributed little to its great power aspirations.
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ndia is an aspiring great power that has long harboured the goal of possessing an arms industry capable of supplying its military with advanced equipment. These ambitions go back more than 50 years, when the country attempted to design and build its own fighter aircraft, the HF-24 Marut. Today, India possesses one of the largest and most diversified defence industries in the developing world. And yet, few nations have invested more time, effort, and capital in their defence industries and received so little in return. Despite more than a half century of struggle, the history of India’s arms industry is a nearly unbroken story of ambitious overreach and spectacular failures. While the rest of India appears to be racing into the 21st century, powered by a dynamic, free-market-oriented economy, the defence sector seems mired in the country’s Nehruvian socialist and protectionist past. Consequently, the nation is still predominantly saddled with a bloated, noncompetitive, non-responsive militaryindustrial complex—capable, it seems, of only producing technologically inferior military equipment, and even then, never on time and nearly always way over
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their original cost estimates. Given such longstanding deficiencies in its defence industrial base, it is little wonder why India’s drive for great power status has been so fitful.
India’s failing defence-industrial base
The Indian defence-industrial base consists of eight government-owned Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), 39 Ordnance Factories (OFs), and, at the top, the all-powerful Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO). India’s state-run defence sector employs more than 1.4 million workers, including some 30,000 scientists and engineers within the DRDO, and in 2010 it enjoyed revenues of approximately US$7.8 billion. And yet, this huge defence industrial sector has consistently underperformed, both technologically and programmatically. In 2006, for example, a government audit of the Ordnance Factories revealed that about 40 per cent of OF products had “not achieved the desired level of quality despite the fact that most items were in production for decades.” At the same time, costs have skyrocketed; according to one source, the country’s five most important weapons programs—including January 2013
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DRDO
drdo.gov.in
NOT IN TUNE WITH COUNTRY’S POWER ASPIRATIONS: (L-R) The Tejas fighter, the Arjun tank, and the Kaveri engine - all of them have overshot their original budgets.
ence with the Tejas fighter, the Arjun tank, and the Kaveri engine—are at least two-and-ahalf times over their original budgets. In addition, the Indian military remains as dependent as ever on foreign systems and technologies. Despite pronouncements made in the mid-1990s that India would increase the “local content” of weaponry in its armed forces from 30 per cent to 70 per cent by 2005, the current level of imported systems remains unchanged at 70 per cent. The most advanced armaments coming out of Indian factories are still predominantly licensedproduced versions of foreign weapons systems, like the Su-30MKI combat aircraft and Scorpène submarine. Even the much-touted BrahMos cruise missile is basically a copy of the Russian Yakhont. This, in turn, reflects that the problems with India’s defence industry are structural, financial, and cultural. A “statist” mindset generally permeates the Indian military-industrial complex, and the government, DRDO, DPSUs, and OFs have long operated in a sealed environment. Under the guise of “self-reliance,” state-run defence firms are pretty much guaranteed production work; traditionally, little stress has been put on meeting www.geopolitics.in
project milestones or ensuring quality or operational effectiveness. Additionally, the influential DRDO has persistently pushed indigenous projects over foreign armaments, while also tending to overestimate the technological abilities of the local defence sector and low-balling costs and development timelines for domestic arms programs. Customarily, the private sector has not been permitted to bid on major weapons contracts, while the Indian armed forces have usually been forced to accept indigenous military equipment, whatever their preferences. As one Indian defence ministry official put it, “the DPSUs have no need to be competitive as they face no competition and have a captive market in the military.” DPSUs and OFs are generally larded with bloated workforces and excess productive capacity; estimates are that much of the defence industry operates at barely 50 per cent of capacity. India’s defence industry has also been starved of capital for R&D and keeping pace with global stateof-the-art arms production.
Prospects for reform
However, things may be changing. The economic liberalization that began in In-
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dia twenty years ago may finally be pervading the local arms industry. For more than a decade the Indian government has been engaged in a number of initiatives designed to open up the defence sector to competition; more recently, too, it has expanded efforts to bring in foreign technologies to improve the capabilities of home-grown armaments and establish the foundation for a more high-tech defence R&D base. For instance, in an effort to formalize technology transfer obligations, the Indian government has over the past decade inaugurated and refined an official defence offsets policy. In the 2000s, New Delhi’s Defence Procurement Procedures (DPP) guidelines outlined three broad acquisition strategies for the Indian armed forces: “Buy,” “Buy and Make,” and “Make.” “Make” refers to military products that would be more or less wholly designed, developed, and manufactured within India. Its basic objective is to ensure the maintenance and expansion of indigenous R&D, design, and production capabilities on the part of the local defence sector, both state-owned and private. The “Buy” category entails products that are intended to be imported. Under the terms of the 2006 DPP, any arms import greater than 3 billion rupees (approximately US$67 million) required a minimum 30 per cent direct offset, either in the form of counter-purchases of Indian defence equipment or foreign direct investment (FDI) in the Indian defence industry (such as co-development or coproduction arrangements, or joint international marketing efforts). The “Buy and Make” category applies mainly to major military programs—such as the Rafale, a French fighter that will be built under the terms of the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender—that entail licensed production inside India and which therefore demand considerable technology transfers and industrial participation. In such cases, a 50 per cent offset is usually mandated. To put it another way, the MMRCA program, which could be worth as much as US$10 billion, could generate up to US$5 billion in offsets. January 2013
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softeis wikipedia
OLD AND STRUGGLING: The HF-24 Marut. The country has one of the largest defence industries in the developing world but hardly anything to show.
Words of caution
a Russo-Indian project to co-develop a fifth-generation fighter jet. Additionally, India’s rapidly growing defence budget could actually be counter-productive to reforming the state-run arms industry. Indian military expenditures have grown 60 per cent in just the past decade, and analysts expect New Delhi to spend at least US$200 billion on new weaponry over the next 15 years. This huge windfall of orders will make it doubly difficult to encourage the DPSUs and OFs to become more efficient and market-oriented. Undoubtedly, restructuring and reforming the Indian defence industry will be slow and incremental. At the same time, recent reform efforts have already produced some tangible results. India’s private sector has made small assaults
DRDO
However, it is still uncertain how much of an impact these new offsets and technology transfer policies will have when it comes to injecting much-needed cutting-edge technologies into the Indian military-industrial complex. For example, even if India does succeed in accruing US$10 billion worth of new offsets, it may turn out to be more work than the local industry can handle, at least in the short run. At the same time, India’s arms producers could be hard-pressed to exploit the foreign technologies they are acquiring, if they are unable to also upgrade their capacities for technology absorption, innovation, and production. This could, in particular, undercut their efforts to make substantive contributions to joint venture programs, such as the FGFA,
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MORE ACTION WANTED: Photo shows a DRDO laboratory. Often blamed for delays and inaction, it is the country’s defence lab that has innovated and brought about the BrahMos missile.
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into the once-restricted arms-producing business. By 2010, local firms were earning about US$800 million annually from defence contracting. Private-sector bidding for local defence contracts is likely to grow, as these companies increase their investments in capabilities and facilities for armaments production, such as shipbuilding, military vehicles, and defencerelated electronics. In addition, opening up the military contracting process to foreign firms, through joint ventures and offset arrangements, is also fundamentally altering the defence-industrial landscape of India. Defence industrial reforms also have some powerful allies in the government and the military. In particular, both are keen to use the local private sector and foreign firm involvement to pressure the DRDO, DPSUs, and OFs to change their business-as-usual practices. In this regard, they are strongly supported by such powerful allies as the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII), which has long pressed for the liberalization and opening up of the country’s defence business. Nevertheless, many of these reforms continue to face stiff resistance, and for the present it is still uncertain what impact, if any, these efforts may eventually have on reforming and invigorating the Indian military-industrial complex. The state-owned defence sector is still very powerful, and the DPSUs and OFs will likely continue to strongly resist any initiatives to remove or reduce their role as the primary producers of the nation’s armaments. Moreover, the DRDO still wields considerable influence within the national armaments planning process, and is thus a strong advocate for the status quo. But one thing is certain; as long as India continues to shield and coddle its traditional military-industrial complex in the name of self-sufficiency and strategic imperative, it will never be able to remake it into something capable of supplying the Indian armed forces with the modern equipment it requires. That, in turn, will mean that Indian ambitions of becoming a great power will always be circumscribed. (ISN)
January 2013
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Armed
Innovation
and ready
I
ndia and Russia have made impressive strides in joint design, development and production of the high-technology BrahMos. The supersonic cruise missile is a unique example of the partnership between India and Russia in critical areas of research and development. The BrahMos missile is the fastest operational cruise missile in the world today and can be launched from any type of platform —land, sea, and air—and precisely reach targets either on land or at sea with high lethal effect. The missile has a range of 290 km, has a maximum velocity of 2.8 Mach and cruises at altitudes varying from 10 metres to 15 km. Currently the missile is four times faster than the American Tomahawk and three times the speed of the American Harpoon or the French Exocet cruise missiles. The weapon system is based on a mobile automatic launcher, ship, submarine and an aircraft. The missile can be launched instantaneously without additional preparations. BrahMos is capable of hitting sea-based targets beyond radar horizons. It can be launched in either inclined or vertical configuration based on the type of the ship on which it is deployed. The potential carriers are Destroyers, Frigates, Corvettes, offshore patrol vessels and any other type of ships. Its Universal Vertical Launcher Module (UVLM), carrying eight missiles was
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also designed and developed by BrahMos. Development is on with the air version and the submarine launched version. The trials for both are expected to start shortly. The company is working towards finalizing the technical specification for its hypersonic version the BrahMos-II which will have a speed of around Mach 6 to enhance its versatility and remain the market leader. The company has a roadmap and will continue to evolve and grow to maintain the winning edge as a world-class weapon system. Deployed on the second stealth frigate of the Indian Navy, INS Tarkash, the BrahMos has given it a winning combination. The follow-on order for three ships of the Talwar class which was placed on Yantar shipyard of Russia to be installed with BrahMos Weapon Complex (first three ships are with Klub missiles) saw the brilliant performance by the Indian side for delivery and installation. This was the first time ever that a complete weapon complex designed and developed in India was used in a foreign shipyard. The vertical launcher module for eight missiles and the Fire Control System was installed at Kaliningrad successfully in all the three ships. The BrahMos weapon complex was flight tested last year in the Baltic sea from INS Teg and subsequently on October 7, 2012 in the Arabian sea against a ship target. It was a bull’s eye hit which
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The BRAHMOS has turned into the most potent cruise missile available for the army and the navy. Its capabilities have been recognised and today it has acquired a reputation in the world. put the target ship on fire. Today, a number of frontline warships of the Indian Navy are armed with BrahMos in vertical as well as inclined configurations. The much awaited underwater launch is also expected shortly which will likely make it a potent contender weapon system for the Indian Navy’s P-75I class submarine project . The BrahMos is so versatile that the Indian Army has already deployed it in two regiments and the order for the third regiment is under execution. The demonstration of steep dive capabilities for high altitude deployment has ensured that the Indian Army will have a cutting edge weapons system for the fastest possible reaction with high accuracy and immaculate kill probability of the target. The ‘mind to market’ concept followed by BrahMos Aerospace has been ensured by following strict International norms at all levels— right from the higher organization to the lowest operating levels. The supremacy of performance exhibited consistently, universality of employment, offer of “complete solution package” to the user, regular enhancement of operational capabilities, strict quality control, timely deliveries, creation of state-of-art storage infrastructure supported by sound product support plan will continue to make BrahMos a well-known brand name in the world.
January 2013
Navy gets its missile edge T
he induction of the Talwar-class frigate INS Tarkash in the Indian Navy in November 2012 has provided a big boost to the country’s maritime security. Armed with the BrahMos cruise missile system — known for its impeccable precision and formidable firepower — the second of the state-of-the art frigates after INS Teg, witnessed the execution of the entire process of delivery and installation at the Yantar shipyard on the Baltic Sea. United Shipbuilding Corporation spokesman Alexei Kravchenko said that Frigate Tarkash was the second in the three Project 11356 ships built by the Yantar Shipyard under a Russian-Indian contract. The BrahMos on the ship is a stealth su-
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personic cruise missile that had been developed by BrahMos Aerospace Private Limited, a joint venture between India’s Defence Research and Development Organization (DRDO) and Russia’s NPO Mashinostroeyenia. Capable of reaching speeds of up to Mach 3, BrahMos became the world’s fastest cruise missile in operation. With a maximum range of 290 km, the ship-launched as well as the land-based variants can carry a 200 kg warhead and strike surface targets with deadly accuracy by flying as low as 10 metres. Equipped with a two-stage propulsion system, the missile’s thrust in the initial stage of its flight is provided by a solidpropellant rocket while the supersonic speed is
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achieved by a liquid-fuelled ramjet. The ramjet with its air-breathing propulsion is considered a lot more fuel-efficient than rocket propulsion, thereby providing a longer range than that allowed by the former. The BrahMos can be fired from vertical or inclined positions and possesses the capability to cover targets over a 360 degree horizon. The land, sea and sub-sea platforms of the missile share an identical configuration. Testing was on for the hypersonic version of the missile which is estimated to reach a speed of Mach 6. This would further enhance India’s fast strike capability after it goes through testing and is ready to be incorporated into the Indian defence services.
January 2013
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km-long floating fence Anchored by submerged metallic meshes the ‘floating fence’ will come up along the disputed Sir Creek border area with Pakistan. The area around which the fence will come up is notorious for illegal crossings and smuggling of narcotics and arms. As part of the project the Central Public Works Department (CPWD) and the National Buildings Construction Corporation (NBCC) have been selected to install an all-weather ‘gabion box’ fence along the stretch which at present is also patrolled by BSF marine unit called the ‘crocodile commandos’. The total expenditure on the project is expected to be in the range of Rs 1,200 crore.
officers wanted of September the Army was short of 32,431 Personnel Below Officers Rank (PBOR).The Navy had 1,996 less officers against its required strength and it was also short of 14,310 sailors. The Indian Air Force was short of 962 officers, and 7,000 airmen till December.
HEMANT RAWAT
The scientists quit the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) in the last six years alone according to Defence Minister A K Antony’s written reply to an answer in the Rajya Sabha. According the to the statement, while 637 scientists had resigned from the DRDO during the 2007-2011 time frame, 50 more had quit this year till Octowww.geopolitics.in
BSF
HEMANT RAWAT
The Indian Army is facing a shortage of the officers despite a slew of recruitment rallies and media campaigns. According to defence minister A K Antony, the major reasons for vacancies in the armed forces include lucrative alternative career avenues and difficult service condition. Till the month
700
scientists quit DRDO ber 31. The DRDO employs over 7,500 scientists at its network of over 50 labs and establishments around the country. According to the Defence Minister “corrective measures had been put in place to stem the flow of resignations. ranging from fast-track promotions through assessments and additional increments on each promotion and better excellent infrastructure facilities.
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terror camps exist in Pak
The camps have been training around 2500 militants who are waiting to get across the Line of Control and unleash mayhem in India. This was stated in Parliament by Minister of State for Home Affairs Mullappally Ramachandran in a written reply to a question. According to the minister:”The terror infrastructure in Pakistan or PoK remains intact and infiltration attempts from across the border still continue to pose a challenge to the security forces.” He also stated that the “India-Pakistan border, particularly the Jammu region, is highly vulnerable to infiltration from Pakistan side…Pakistanbased terrorists with support of Pak Army, often make attempts to sneak in. January 2013
$47
NUMBERSGAME
million lost in cyber attack
cadets for INA Ezhimala
As the facility struggles to house 600 cadets now, the Indian Naval Academy at Ezhimala in Kerala will be further upgraded to be able to cater 1200 cadets by 2014. This will be part of the second phase of operations at the Naval Academy where basic training for all officers inducted into the Indian Navy is conducted. The facility
is also involved in the training of Indian Coast Guard personnel. Located approximately 35 km north of Kannur and 135 km south of Mangalore, on the west coast of India, the Naval Academy at Ezhimala is expected to share training facilities for cadets with the upcoming Indian Coast Guard Academy at Azhikkal.
500,000 This number will get a further increase after the recent adoption of a liberal visa regime by the India to promote economic engagement, people-to-people contact and tourism. This was announced recently by India’s Ambassador to Bangladesh Pankaj Saran. The announcement comes after the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Dhaka in September
19565
visas given to B’desh nationals annually
2011 where he said that he would take efforts to remove trade and non-tariff barriers between India and Bangladesh. As part of its efforts to boost bilateral cooperation, India has already signed a liberal visa regime with Pakistan with a number of specialised visas for tourist in groups and pilgrim visas, multi-city and multi-entry visa for businessmen.
cr from 3,077 cr
The cost escalation in the Kashmir rail link project—the 29-km UdhampurSrinagar-Baramulla line—has gone up from ` 3,077 cr in 1999-2000 to a whopwww.geopolitics.in
NATIONAL PROJECT: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh dedicating the 18-km long railway line between Anantnag and Quazigund, the last stretch of the rail line in the Kashmir Valley, to the nation
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freakingnewscom
tarmak007.blogspot.in
1200
The money was stolen from around 30,000 bank accounts in Europe in the cyber attack dubbed “Eurograbber”. According to a report by cyber security experts Check Point Software Technologies Ltd. and Versafe, in Spain alone, the cyber-thieves stole $7.5 million from
11,352 accountholders at seven banks from computers and cell phones between January and August 2012. Between $650 to $327,000 were taken out from individual and corporate accounts in Italy, Spain, Germany and The Netherlands. According to the cyber security experts, a computer virus was used to invade the banking system, which after accessing certain links, installs itself in a computer and remains inactive until the user connects online to their bank account.
ping `19, 565 cr today. In fact, the track is still to be completed. The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) has slammed the railways for the long delay and noted the “poor planning” before the execution of the project as the main cause for the delay. The CAG report tabled recently in Parliament observed that the decision on the selection of alignment should have been done only after an investigation whether it was workable. January 2013
coverstory
Iron Dome
for India
Many Indian defence planners are closely scrutinising the performance of the Israeli Iron Dome in countering the recent rocket and missile attacks from Gaza. But does India need such an air defence system now? Sitakanta Mishra discusses
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January 2013
T
he spectacular performance of the Israeli air defence system—the Iron Dome—in the ‘Operation Pillar of Cloud’ in Gaza has sparked speculation in Indian strategic circles on the imperative of such a system for the country. Undoubtedly, the debut anti-missile shield has been proved as a ‘game-changer’ in the recent Arab-Israel conflict and may be capable of addressing India’s cross-border threat perceptions. However, the system should not be seen as a panacea as it cannot intercept the longer range missiles. Rather, the Iron Dome can be another system in India’s quiver in the long run while deploying the indigenous Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) system and devising a credible strategy to counter cruise missile threats in the near-term.
Project genesis
Primarily, Iron Dome air defence system has its genesis in the Second Lebanon War of 2006, during which nearly 4,000 short-range rockets were fired on Haifa and other northern regions of Israel. A couple of years before this event, Israeli authorities were seriously looking for anti-missile options, including lasers and giant shotguns, to counter rocket threats. In 2004, then Brigadier General Daniel Gold was named Director of the Ministry of Defence’s Research and Development department, responsible for overseeing the development of new weapons systems. In March 2005, by cancelling “all the unnecessary bureaucracy”, he managed to patch together the concept for the system that would become Iron Dome.
richardcyoung.com
Iron Dome air defence system has its genesis in the Second Lebanon War of 2006, during which nearly 4,000 short-range rockets were fired on Haifa and other northern regions of Israel
Drawing on technologies from three Israeli defence companies—the Rafael Advanced Defence Systems Ltd., which headed the project and makes the Tamir interceptor missiles; the Elta Systems for providing radar components; and the MPrest for command-and-control components—the Iron Dome emerged as a versatile system. However, a 2008 audit by the Israeli state comptroller criticised Daniel Gold for bypassing required approvals from the military’s general staff, the Defence Minister and the Israeli government. Despite all hindrances, the first successful test firing of the system took place in March 2009. In July 2009, during a Defence Ministry test, the system successfully intercepted a number of rockets. A month later, a new battalion was established by the Israeli Air Force to operate the system. Multiple rocket bombardments were intercepted successfully in a January 2010 test. The final testing of the Iron Dome was conducted in July 2010. According to reports, the United States has significant contribution to the completion of the project. Iron Dome got a significant boost soon after President Barack Obama came to office in 2009. During his visit to Sderot as a presidential candidate, Obama is known to have told his aides to find a way to help boost Israel’s defences from the makeshift rockets, although defence officials at the time doubted the project. Despite initial Pentagon misgivings, President Obama has reportedly sanctioned $275 million to the project since 2010 “with the aim of reducing the rocket threat and eventually bolstering chances of a peace deal by making Israel feel more secure to agree to territorial concessions”. For years, Pentagon experts continuously dismissed Iron Dome as doomed to fail and urged Israel to instead try a cheaper US approach. The project faced similar scepticism at home. However, the mathematician-general Daniel Gold, along with the labour-organiser-turnedDefence Minister Amir Peretz, pushed the project through. As soon as it was first declared operational, on March 27, 2011 it was deployed near the southern city of Beersheba, in the Negev Desert. Reportedly, by April 2012 it had intercepted 93 rockets. Before the November 28, 2012 cease-fire, Iron Dome reportedly knocked down 421 rockets launched from Gaza and bound for Israeli cities, achieving a 90 per cent success rate, as proclaimed by the Israeli military. The biggest achievement is that the system limited Israeli casualties to only six during the week-long firing. www.geopolitics.in
On The
Defence
Success rate
75-90%
Dual-Mission Counter Rocket, Artillery and Mortar (C-RAM) and Very Short Range Air Defence (V-SHORAD) System The Iron Dome is the only dual mission system in the world that provides an effective defence solution for countering rockets, artillery & mortars (C-RAM) as well as aircraft, helicopters, UAVs, PGMs. The system is an effective system for countering C-RAM threats with ranges of up to 70-km and for VSHORAD protection (up to 10-km). The system operates in all weather conditions, including low clouds, rain, dust storms or fog.
Benefits
Radar
Radar detects the rocket’s launch and tracks its trajectory
1
• Cost effective solution • Day/night and all weather operation • Successful handling of simultaneous firing (concentrated salvos) of a large number of threats • Effective discrimination and handling of threats • Very high per cent success rate in intercepting incoming shells and rockets • Reduced collateral damage to the protected area
mISSILE firing unit
Cost of an interceptor missile
$35,000-$50,000 Cost of a crudely manufactured rocket
$800
3
If a threat is determined, an interceptor missile is fired to detonate the rocket before it reaches the expected imapct area
Cost per Iron dome system
$50 million System versatility
The Iron Dome, also known as Iron Cap, is a truck-towed mobile all-weather air defence system developed by Rafael Advanced Defence to counter very short
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range rockets and artillery shell (155mm) threats with ranges of up to 70 km. The system operates with several key components, including a radar system to scan rockets; a command system to track rockJanuary 2013
2 Battle Management System
et location, projected destination and threat analysis; and a launcher which includes 20 interceptors used by the Israeli Defence Force, which can act independently for its advanced sighting systems, www.geopolitics.in
graphic: ajay negi
Calculates the expected hit point according to the reported data, and uses this information to determine whether the target constitutes a threat to a designated area
even when communication is lost. One key feature of the Iron Dome system is the command and control centre, which synchronises information from the radar system, and decides which potential tar-
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gets to intercept. The system is unique as it is a one-of-its-kind fully computer-controlled or automated anti-missile system in the world. Iron Dome can differentiate between different types of rockets, is wellJanuary 2013
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US EMBASSY
US EMBASSY
COVERSTORY
PARTNERS-IN-ARM: (Top) US Secretary of Defence Leon Panetta with Israel’s Minister of Defence Ehud Barak at a press conference soon after a visit to the Iron Dome battery in Ashkelon; and, (right) US Ambassador Daniel B Shapiro at the Iron Dome Battery Command Center
networked with other interceptors, and can effectively analyse threats—especially short-range, and eliminate them at high precision and speed. Other features of the system include a vertical launch interceptor, warhead and proximity fuse, mobile launcher and compatibility with various radar and detection systems. The system’s special warhead allows it to detonate any target in the air. After detecting and identifying the hostile rocket, the radar monitors its path. Based on the radar’s information, the system’s BMC (Better Management Command) analyses the trajectory of the incoming threat and calculates its anticipated point of impact. If the calculated path of the incoming rocket poses a real threat, an interceptor against the threat is launched to detonate it over a neutral area. The missile launched by the missile firing unit (MFU) of Iron Dome includes Tamir interceptor missiles. It has several steering fins for high manoeuvrability and is equipped with electro-optic sensors. www.geopolitics.in
Each Iron Dome battery has three MFUs, each of which can launch 20 Tamir interceptor missiles. If the rockets are found headed not for populated areas or sensitive targets, the Iron Dome system allow them to land. Israeli officials point out that Iron Dome saves money despite the fact that the interceptors cost a lot. Reportedly, a single battery is said to cost over $100 million while each Tamir interceptor missile is said to cost only about $50,000. However, the value of Israeli lives saved and property protected is incalculable and the system is believed providing a morale boost to people who have been under constant rocket attack for years. More importantly, as a versatile system, Iron Dome is expected to obsolete the weapon of choice of Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas— the rockets and missiles—therefore, will be a “game changer” in Arab-Israel conflict.
Dome for India
Many Indian defence planners are introspecting closely the performance of Iron Dome, which is probably the only effective deterrent to short-range missiles. Many also speculate about India acquiring an indigenous version of Iron Dome. To that extent, a few months ago, report-
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edly, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) scientists had suggested that India look at a joint development programme with Israeli firms to develop an Indian version of Iron Dome. It is certainly fascinating to aim for such a versatile system by every nation considering the evolving threat scenario. Presumably, there have been some discussions between DRDO and their Israeli counterparts for a possible joint development of Iron Dome for India. Dr W Selvamurthy, Chief Controller of DRDO who looks after international cooperation, has been quoted saying that “the Israeli team comes and works in our laboratories. Our team goes and works in their laboratories and industries. There is a learning that is taking place which was not there when we buy things and integrate with existing products....” He further said that, in directed energy weapons “we are focusing on fibre laser, high powered micro-waves, etc. We have also started discussions with Iron Dome for co-development (in India)”. However, considering its geostrategic implications, cost, and technical specificities, one needs to ask: does India really need now an Iron Dome? One may argue that Israel’s plight has several parallels to India’s threat perceptions from Pakistan January 2013
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PIB
COVERSTORY
as well as the vulnerability of its cities from terrorists. In the Indian military establishment, the temptation for acquiring new systems is often explained by the argument that India is surrounded by hostile neighbours with whom it has fought several wars. Terror groups like Lashkare-Taiba (LeT) and Hizbul Mujahedeen, etc. could well acquire similar capability to threaten large groups of Indian population and strategic infrastructure. Also, there always exists the fear of short-range rockets fired at Indian cities from across the border. Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapon, the Nasr—a solid fuelled battlefield range ballistic missile—has been viewed to have developed against India’s Cold Start doctrine. Against all these threat perceptions and new variety of weapons with its adversaries, Iron Dome might be an effective deterrent power for India to acquire. However, a realistic understanding of the strategic scenario surrounding India would bring home the fact that India has not been targeted or attacked with such amount of rockets by the terrorists yet as the way Israel has been. Rather, the successive missile tests by Pakistan over the last seven years reveal the fact that cruise missiles are taking increasingly prominent role in Pakistan’s missile posture. www.geopolitics.in
This would beget a fundamental dilemma and complexity in India’s ballistic missile defence planning and complicate the regional security environment at large. India’s decision to go for the BMD shield seems strongly being echoed in Pakistan’s missile strategy. Instead of falling into the economic trap, Pakistan is emphasising its cruise missile inventory. The Pakistani nuclear capable cruise missiles (Babur and Ra’ad) are viewed to bestow Islamabad the potential to evade New Delhi’s BMD plans; therefore, they may “complicate India’s decision-making calculus and even constrain Indian strategic behaviour”, says Shane A Mason of Monterey Institute of International Studies. This necessitates India to devise an effective strategy foremost to counter the threat emanating from the expanding cruise missile inventory of Pakistan. That should be India’s first priority. It does not mean that the terrorists operating in this region, or Pakistan for that matter, cannot replicate the tactics of Hezbollah and Hamas. While they haven’t yet developed rockets like the ones used by Hamas and Hezbollah, the lure of such weaponry for terrorists operating in and around India should not be under-estimated. India should eye all possible options including the Iron Dome system.
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DEADLY PRECISION: (Top, left) Israel’s Iron Dome intercepting rockets fired at populated civilian areas during the recent fighting against Gaza-based militants; and, (above) An Advance Air Defence (AAD02) interceptor missile being launched from Wheeler Island off the Dhamra coast in Odisha
In the long-run, may be in a decade from now, the Iron Dome type system should be acquired to round-up its air defence arrangement. Therefore, a multi-pronged but phased-strategy to counter multiple threats that India is facing today—ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and rockets —would be the prudent roadmap. India must draw inferences from the reason why Israeli Defense Force ultimately aiming at a multi-layered defense system that includes “David’s Sling,” also known as the Magic Wand to be operational in 2015. DRDO is currently collaborating with Israeli firms to develop medium range surface to air missiles (MRSAMs) and LRSAMs. India has also bought EL/M-2083 Aerostat radars from Israel for surveillance of low-flying aircrafts. The cooperation in these fields can be further extended to the short-range missile defence arena in future.
(The author is Research Fellow, Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi) January 2013
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BEYOND C-RAMs
While current generation counter rocket, artillery, mortar (C-RAM) rounds are, perhaps, adequate to counter anything Pakistan or its proxies throw at India by way of cheap rocket systems, the real test would be to design effective counter precision guided munition (C-PGM) systems in the light of China’s acquisition of a large number of precision-guided long-range rocket systems, writes Saurav Jha
I
nsurgent organisations all over the world are looking beyond small arms and shoulder-launched weapons that are the usual staple of their arsenals. Middle Eastern groups such as Hezbollah and assorted Iraqi insurgent units have actually graduated to operating long-range rockets of different diameters besides increasing the number of smaller tube artillery systems such as mortars at their disposal. It is not surprising, therefore, that it is in Israel and in USoccupied Iraq that the means to counter rocket, artillery, mortar (C-RAM) rounds were first deployed and tested. Although, indirect firepower capability in the hands of terrorists is a concern, the accretion of precision rocket artillery systems by the Chinese is of greater import to India. It is, therefore, time to closer look at what con-
stitutes the core of C-RAM systems and how the detection and guidance aspects of these technologies have evolved since some of them maybe on offer to India for joint development and production. While the kill vector used for interception by a C-RAM system could range from a rocket, to a smart 35 mm round, to even a laser, its efficacy depends on
US ARMY
MOBILE LAUNCHER: The new diesel-electric HEMTT A3 with a mounted Mobile Land-based Phalanx Weapon System. The MLPWS underwent livefire testing and intercepted rocket-propelled mortars
its core sensor which is a radar of the phased array variety. Importantly, the radar technology used in C-RAM systems is not specific to it and has grown out of the world-wide trend to combine air defence and counter-battery roles into a single package. This in turn has been facilitated by the maturing of programmable phased array radar technology. Take the main sensor of the Israeli defence major Rafael’s Iron Dome system which is making so much news of late. At the core of an Iron Dome unit is an Elta EL/M-2084 mobile multi-function radar which is a 3D active electronically scanned array (AESA) that can be configured and literally re-sized by adding or removing transmit/receive (t/r) modules for different roles. As such it has two chief modes of operation, one optimised for air defence and the other for the counter-battery role.
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HEMANT RAWAT
COVERSTORY
FUTURE READY: The LSTAR Active Phased Array Radar on display at DEFEXPO 2012 in Delhi
www.geopolitics.in
land-based version of the PHALANX close in weapon system networked with the US Army’s lightweight counter mortar radar (LCMR) and a Thales-Raytheon AN/TPQ36 Firefinder or its longer ranged cousin the AN/TPQ-37. The LCMR, despite its name, can actually detect artillery and rocket rounds as well and does so in a 360 degree azimuth (which is a first), albeit at much shorter ranges than the AN/TPQ37 with extended detection ranges up to 50 kms away for rockets. The AN/TPQ-36 and AN/TPQ-37 have been a staple in the US Army for many years now, with the latter even being exported to India. These are, however, now being replaced by Lockheed Martin’s new AN/ TPQ-53 quick-reaction capability radar in
ON TEST: A fully operational Iron Domespecific EL/M2084 MMR was showcased for the very first time in India during the Aero India 2011 in Bengaluru in February 2011
US ARMY
It is out of the latter that the configuration for the detection and tracking required for C-RAM cueing has been developed. The EL/M-2084 in the counter-battery role tracks about 200 incoming projectiles per minute and has azimuth coverage of 120 degrees and elevation coverage of up to 50 degrees. It can be transported by a C-130 and is naturally network enabled capable of remote operation. Counter-battery radar concepts actually go all the way back to the second war but it was only by the 1970s that radars with the ability to truly autonomously detect and plot the trajectory of incoming projectiles could be developed. Once a segment of the trajectory was recorded the radar’s processing unit would calculate the location of the firing battery, thereby paving the way for a retaliatory response. With the advent of digital phased array radars of decent processing power and compactness that allowed them to be readily deployed on the field, many of the problems of older mechanically steered radars were obviated. Phased array radars with sufficient processing capability could detect all radar returning targets in their field of view and could discriminate between them. With AESA technology it was only a matter of time before counter-battery systems could be adapted to C-RAM modes. Such has been the case with the existing American C-RAM system—Raytheon’s Centurion. The Centurion is essentially a
both the counter-battery and C-RAM roles and it is this new radar which will probably work in tandem with the LCMR for future inbound projectile interception systems. The AN/TPQ-53, like its predecessors, is also is a mobile radar system designed to detect, classify, and track projectiles fired from mortar, artillery, and rocket systems using a 90-degree sector search. It, however, can also do a 360 degree continuous sector search. This system has updated software which during proving trials supposedly returned a false reporting rate of less than one in twelve hours. These trials check for reporting rates when no actual projectiles are fired towards the radar. The misclassification of aircraft as incoming projectile targets has also seen significant reduction in the AN/TPQ-53 trials. However, unlike the AN/TPQ-36 and 37, the AN/TPQ-53 cannot be transported by
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January 2013
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US ARMY
BATTLE READY: A US Army photo shows the mobile AN/TPQ-53
a C-130. A C-17 can be used to move the AN/TPQ-53 though. Meanwhile, it seems that Raytheon has been awarded a contract by the US Army to build a prototype Ku Band MultiFunction RF System (MFRFS) Sense and Warn (S&W) radar. This is apparently being developed to supplement existing radars—radar future C-RAM systems by helping refine the tracking of target of interest even further, eliminating false alarms and improving overall coverage. It is noteworthy that this is a Ku band radar since most existing C-RAM radars today operate in the C and S bands. The EL/M2084, AN/TPQ-36, AN/TPQ-37 and AN/ TPQ-53 are all operate in the S-band. First generation counter-battery radars, however, were used to operate in the X-band as that was seen as the most useful part of the spectrum for detecting targets with small radar cross section (rcs). One notable system that follows this older tradition is Rheinmetall Air Defence’s (AD’s) Modular, Automatic and Network capable Targeting and Interception System (MANTIS) developed under the German Army’s Sysfla programme for base protection in Afghanistan against RAM threats. The MANTIS is essentially a derivative of Rheinmetall AD’s Skyshield 35 www.geopolitics.in
mm air defence gun system and therefore uses as its primary fire control system an X-band search and tracking system which works in tandem with a secondary electro-optical sensor both of which are operated by a detached Skymaster command and control station that can be located up to half a kilometre away. Perhaps, if the 2009 Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) scandal had not intervened, the MANTIS would have become India’s extant C-RAM system given that OFB was all set to licence produce the Skyshield. Be that as it may, the Indian military today may be seriously looking at bringing in a C-RAM system that is developed by the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) in partnership with a foreign company. It is significant that DRDO’s Electronics and Radar Development Establishment (LRDE) has already developed a counter-battery radar which grew out of the Rajendra passive phased array radar used by the Akash Surface to Air(SAM) missile system. One is referring here to the euphemistically named Weapon Locating Radar (WLR) now produced by Bharat Electronic’s Limited under technology transfer from DRDO. The BEL WLR has performance comparable to the AN/
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TPQ-37 but operates in the C-band and is a passive electronically scanned array. Besides the BEL WLR, the Indian Air Force has also inducted the Arudra medium power radar which is akin to the EL/M2084 having been developed with Israeli support and is the first ground based AESA in Indian military service. These two systems indicate that DRDO clearly has the pedigree to move towards a serious C-RAM system in partnership with the Israelis or some other foreign entity. Such a foreign collaboration could look to build a system that improves some of the limitations of current C-RAM systems. Contemporary C-RAM systems are sometimes unable to be effective enough unless positioned strategically to detect projectiles of certain speeds and sizes despite the advances in phased array technology. Moreover even systems like the EL/M-2084 which are touted for their electronic counter counter-measures (ECCM) capability are not impervious to new wireless cyber invasive technologies that ride seemingly standard electronic counter-measures (ECM) While current generation C-RAMs are perhaps adequate to counter anything Pakistan or its proxies throw at India by way of cheap rocket systems, the real test would be to design effective counter precision guided munition (C-PGM) systems in light of China’s acquisition of a large number of precision guided long range rocket systems. These would require longer ranged detection radars as well as interception vectors that can handle more ballistic missile targets. Israel’s Stunner missile which is part of the David’s Sling system comes to mind here. Moreover, there are rumours that the Chinese are researching radar absorbent material coated artillery shells and this can become a significant challenge for C-RAM systems to overcome. Nevertheless if an Indian development of a C-RAM system is designed to counter Chinese PGMs it could prove to be a worthwhile investment since the cost of such a system will be balanced out by the cost of incoming PGMs which continue to be expensive, even for the Chinese. January 2013
geopolitics
INTERNAL SECURITY
Tavor X 95
Beretta Cx4 Storm
AK 47
MODERNISATION
OF CAPF
The Union Home Ministry is planning a blue print for the fine-tuning of the armed police . But is that enough?
IS b r i e f s
internal security
Punjab to reform its state police
Speed read
Israeli commando tips for Mumbai police
H C TIWARI
New Delhi and Washington are working on extradition of three Babbar Khalsa extremists who were involved in terrorist activities across India in the 1980s. The three—Balwinder Singh Possi, Gurnam Singh alias Neka, and Gursharan Singh Cheema—have been hiding in the US for more than a decade.
The Punjab government, which is attempting to cope with high crime rates, is poised to implement reforms for its police force. After the killing of an Assistant Sub Inspector in Amritsar in December last year, Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal announced that the investigation and police wings would be segregated. The new reforms would also ensure that complaints would be replied to within a period of 21 days or less, depending on the nature of the case.
Yasin Malik, chairman of the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front (JKLF), has warned that the state could face a “1990-type turmoil” if life terms were awarded to Kashmiri separatists. The provocation for the warning came when a TADA court announced life imprisonments to two JKLF detainees.
www.geopolitics.in
Around 30 of Mumbai Police’s Special Protection Unit (SPU), recently received training and tips in armed combat techniques from five Israeli commandos on the protection of VIPs and VVIPs. The training was part of the capacity-building undertaken by the Mumbai Police post—26/11to increase the efficiency of its combat units. Additional Commissioner of Police (Protection) Madhukar Pandey said that the Israeli commandos trained the SPU on offensive and defensive firing, holstering a handgun on the correct side, cutting down on response time and countering an attack without hampering the lives of hostages.
UP is No 1 for
Army bases in red corridor
The cabinet committee on security is mulling a move to set up a separate Aviation Security Force (ASF) to man all Indian airports. The initiative follows an ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organisation) suggestion of setting up the ASF under the direct command of the ministry of civil aviation.
indian army
In a move to boost trade, tourism and other economic activities and in keeping with the promise by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during his Dhaka visit last year to remove trade and non-tariff barriers last September, India has adopted a liberal visa policy towards Bangladesh.
The government is all set to establish army bases in Naxal/Maoist-affected areas. The central government asked four states—Chattisgarh, Jharkhand, Odisha and Maharashtra—to allocate land for army bases. The land was needed to set up jungle warfare training units. Except for Odisha none of the states have responded to the Ministry of Home’s letter. Home Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde, however, has warned police chiefs about Maoists reorganizing themselves to attack police and security forces.
Notwithstanding the presence of a Samajwadi Party government, Uttar Pradesh saw more than 100 communal clashes in 2012. Among the town that witnessed such incidents were Kosi Kalan in Mathura, Faizabad, Pratapgarh, Sitapur, Ghaziabad and Bareilly. According to Union Home Ministry sources, 34 persons died while 450 were injured in these clashes that took place between January and October 2012. Next in the number of incidents was Maharashtra with 83 incidents in which 13 people were killed, Madhya Pradesh with 78 incidents in which 11 people died and Karnataka with 54 incidents.
Ready for cyber attacks
CISF to counter Somali pirates?
The National Critical Information Infrastructure Protection Centre (NCIIPC), which was established in New Delhi by the government to protect government agencies from cyber attacks, is ready to spring into action. Among the 17 sectors that have been designated as critical, the Aviation, Health, IT, and Power Department are on its list of top priority.
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The government is planning to station CISF personnel on the request of Indian merchant ships and on a cost-reimbursement basis to prevent piracy/hijacking/ abduction on the high seas off the coast of Somalia. However, the plans are still at an early stage and “no details/modalities have been finalized”, according to Minister of State for Home Affairs R P N Singh.
January 2013
b r i e f s IS
internal security
No jammers till SPG says so
hemant rawat
QUIP METER
pib
communal clashes
SSB all set to Enhance Intelligence Inputs
hemant rawat
israel army
Now the Special Protection Group (SPG) will have to clear and validate the installation of phone jammers in the country’s jails. To top it all, the process will be monitored by the Union cabinet secretariat. Reason: these jammers could hamper the movement of VIPs. Union Secretary (Security) Yogesh Gupta has told state governments that “the jammers should be used only for the specific purpose and in the event of visit of any SPG protectee(s) to the state, these should be used with the prior consent of the SPG”.
477 convicts on death row The government told the Rajya Sabha in December 2012 that 477 convicts on death row were awaiting execution in prisons around the country. The declaration was made by the government when it was quizzed on the status of criminals who had been given the death sentence and were waiting for their sentences to be carried out. The status were released in the wake of Pakistani terrorist and 26/11 perpetrator Ajmal Kasab’s hanging in November 2012 after the rejection of his mercy petition by the President. www.geopolitics.in
“The terror infrastructure in Pakistan or PoK remains intact and infiltration attempts from across the border still continue to pose a challenge to the security forces… there are 42 militants camps functioning across the borders, 25 in PoK and 17 in Pakistan with about 2,500 militants. The India-Pakistan border, particularly the Jammu region, is highly vulnerable to infiltration from Pakistan side… Pakistan-based terrorists with the support of Pak Rangers/Pak Army, often make abortive attempts to sneak into the Indian territory.” Minister of State for Home Affairs Mullappally Ramachandran in the Lok Sabha.
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Realizing the need for better intelligence inputs, Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) will put more effective mechanisms in place to ensure pinpoint inputs over the issue in collaboration with the local population, SSB Director-General (DG) Arun Choudhary said in a press conference few days after assuming his duties. During the last two decades the infiltration through the Indo-Nepal border was at its peak which led to several incidents in the country. It was after the Kargil War that the areas along Indo-Nepal and Indo-Bhutan borders were barricaded which had been left unmonitored till then. It was when the government decided to barricade and place certain areas of border under specific force which would be accountable for the region that the SSB was given charge of the 1751 km Indo-Nepal and 696 km Indo-Bhutan borders. The effective measures, which are set to be incorporated, are user-friendly devices like GPRS as well as civic action programs and civic policing, both of which will help in creating local informers and local friends for the SSB. When asked about the dip in expenditure from `42 crores to `2.2 crores, he clarified that the expenditure is incurred when the need arises. January 2013
ARMING THE FIGHTING MEN: Seen here during a tactical demonstration the CAPFs are in need of urgent modernisation
MODERNISATION OF In rapidly changing internal security scenario, the role assigned to central police organisations and their modernisation programmes should go hand in hand, writes MONISH GULATI
T
here are six Indian Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs), namely Border Security Force (BSF), Central Industrial Security Force (CISF), Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP), Sashastra Seema Bal (SSB) and National Security Guards (NSG) and one Central Paramilitary Force (CPMF) i.e. Assam Rifles (AR) under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA). The NSG and AR have Indian Army personnel on deputation. By virtue of their primary tasking and deployment AR, BSF, ITBP and SSB are termed as ‘Border Guarding Forces’. The Border Guarding forces secure India’s borders with Pakistan, China, Nepal, www.geopolitics.in
Bhutan, Myanmar and Bangladesh. It may be noted that that commonality between all the central police forces ends with the term ‘CAPFs’ and they all function under the MHA, which lays down policies on various aspects of their operations, including human resources, and controls their financial budget as well as major procurement activities. The role and the tasking of the CAPFs ranges from border guarding at high altitudes to providing security to private institutions of national importance in the heart of the country. Accordingly, their requirement for equipment and training is also at variance. The total strength of the CAPFs as on August 2012 is as indicated
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in Table1.This is below their sanctioned manpower for various reasons and does not indicate units and establishments approved but which would be raised over a period extending as late as 2019.
Modernisation: Drivers
A discourse on modernisation of CAPFs and the effectiveness of the outcome would be incomplete without an introduction to the various drivers of the process. Ideally, modernisation/upgradation of security forces which is an ongoing process should be effected through routine and periodic upgradation of PET (Peace Time Equipment Table) to address obsolescence of equipment, technologiJanuary 2013
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CAPFs
cal advancement, anticipated changes and operational requirements. The PET essentially scales various stores and equipment to a unit and lays down periodicity of their replenishment. The PET of the CAPFs is revised in consultation with Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPR&D). Similarly, for strengthening the fighting capacity of the CAPFs, their Arming Policy is revised/ formulated in consultation with BPR&D. State response to the changing threat scenario results in increase in force levels of the CAPFs and their specialisation to include equipment and skills. The continuously evolving nature of threats, both internal and external, encountered by the CAPFs is the main trigger for their modernisation. At times these requirements are not anticipated and are brought about as an unforeseen fall out of security incidents or due to innovative tactics/ use of
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HEMANT RAWAT
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HEMANT RAWAT
OV technology by anti-national elements. Situations of this nature demand in response a quantum improvement in the capability of the security forces, which is usually, time critical. Such force modernisation actions due to their time sensitivity are generally achieved by COTs purchases (Commercial off-the-shelf, products that are commercially available and can be bought ‘as is’), modifications to existing indigenous manufacturing etc. These improvements may be operational area and/ or threat specific and may not be applied to the entire force. Modernisation could be driven by change in strategic doctrine and employment philosophy. The establishment and enhancement of the MHA/BSF air wing to achieve reduced deployment timings and provide air support, both logistic and firepower, to the CAPFs within the country with minimum reliance on the armed forces is an example. Change in tactical approach to counter threat can also influence upgradation—such as use of nonlethal weapons, use of mini UAVs (Unmanned Aerial Vehicles) for intelligence gathering or the proposal of the CRPF to have an integral intelligence component at field level. The intelligence organisation at unit level for the CRPF was approved by the government vide orders dated September 1, 2009 and January 6, 2012, and has yielded 1716 posts (at the rate of 8 posts per battalion) and associated equipment. State response to the changing threat scenario also leads to augmentation of policing actions in certain areas and/or bringing additional areas under surveillance through force accretion. Emphasis on maritime/coastal security post 26/11 is an example. Responsibility of the same may fall on both, the State Police Forces (SPFs) and the CAPFs. For patrolling of shallow waters, Marine Police has been raised in the coastal states and union territories and these have been equipped with interceptor boats and other assets under the Coastal Security Scheme. Phase I of this scheme has been completed with the setting up of 73 coastal police stations. The Phase II of the scheme is under way under which another 131 coastal police stations are being established. In the case of CAPFs, the government has sanctioned 185 posts along with required infrastructure/boats for raising one Marine Coy in BSF, for guarding the coastal area between
ER
IRE POW
MING F ERWHEL
Tavor X 95
Beretta CM - Cx4 Storm
AK 47 with under barrel grenade launcher
Automatic Grenade Launcher
January 2013
g INTERNALSECURITY Table 1: Strength of CAPFs FORCE
Officers/GOs
JCOs/SOs
ORs
ARs
999
3739
60467
BSF
3903
27165
196446
CISF
1200
18425
95028
CRPF
4055
34393
241414
ITBP
1218
7678
53016
NSG
364
1230
7331
SSB
726
3778
58727
12465
96408
712429
Total Source: MHA-2012
Table 2: Fund Utilisation under Modernisation Plan-I by CAPFs. Name of the CAPF/PMF
Progress ( per cent )
AR
94.75
BSF
93.70
CISF
97.00
CRPF
83.70
ITBP
78.82
NSG
65.32
SSB
68.10
Total
83.06
Source: MHA-2012. Medi and Jakhau in Gujarat. Force modernisation also results in upgradation of supporting infrastructure, training facilities, administrative and logistic requirements. For example, to impart basic and advance training to the 7,500 odd policemen that man the coastal police stations under the Coastal Security Scheme, MHA has recently approved the setting up of National Institute of Coastal Policing . Accordingly last three years have seen 17 new training institutions being set up and 13 being upgraded/ augmented at a cost of Rs. 1,453.43 cr. These include three RTCs, one CIJW (Counter Insurgency and Jungle Warfare School) and one CTC for ITBP; one Counter Insurgency and Anti-Terrorist (CIAT) school for CRPF; and three RTCs for SSB. In addition psycho-social well being of troops/human resource and non-traditional tasks such as disaster management, riot control etc. also lead to modernisation of infrawww.geopolitics.in
structure and equipment. Naxal activity in left wing extremist (LWE) affected areas and its impact on internal security, however, appears to be the main driver of the modernisation of SPFs and the CAPFs. Central Government response to the Naxal activity in the country has resulted in a wide range of schemes on both, security and development fronts. These include setting up of CIAT Schools; modernisation and upgradation of the SPFs and their intelligence apparatus under the Scheme for Modernisation of SPF (MPF Scheme); reimbursement of security-related expenditure under the Security Related Expenditure (SRE) Scheme; filling up critical infrastructure gaps under the Special Infrastructure Scheme (SIS) in LWE affected states; integrated development of selected tribal and backward districts under Integrated Action Plan (IAP) and assistance in training of SPFs through CAPFs and BPR&D.
Modernisation of CAPFs
The Police Modernisation Division of the MHA handles all items of work relating to modernisation of SPFs, provisioning/procurement of various items for modernisation of CAPFs, police reforms and security of VIPs/vital installations. Under the MPF scheme assistance is being provided, inter-alia, for procurement of modern equipments for surveillance, communications, forensic science laboratories, etc., weaponry, vehicles, computerisation, training infrastructure and for construction of Police infrastructure viz., Housing/Police stations/out posts/ barracks etc. Progressive and continuous enhancement of the operational efficiency of the CAPFs is the major focus of the Government’s modernisation programme. Accordingly a five year perspective plan for modernisation of weaponry, machinery, transport, communication, surveillance, night vision and training equipment as force multipliers is formulated. The provisions made under the scheme for modernisation of CAPFs are in addition to the normal provisions being made for weaponry, equipment, communication. The Government had approved the five
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year plan (2002-07) or the Modernisation Plan I of the CAPFs with an outlay of Rs 3,740.71 crore. Government had also approved a three year plan (2005-08) for modernisation of SSB at an estimated cost of Rs 444.43 crore in April, 2005. Since both the schemes could not be fully implemented during the period, the plan was extended up to 2010-11. An amount of R 3,453.45 crore had been spent under the Scheme till March 31, 2011. The percentage utilisation of funds allocated under Modernisation Plan-I by the CAPFs is indicated in Table 2. The force level of the CAPFs has increased significantly since the formulation of the first Modernisation Plan. Given the compelling reasons discussed earlier, MHA has decided to introduce a second Modernisation Plan or the ‘Modernisation Plan-II’ (2011-16), which has a proposed outlay of Rs 5,667.40 crore. The plan is awaiting final approval. The five year perspective plan for modernisation of the ITBP for the years 2011-16 amounts to Rs 786 crore. The Modernisation Plan I had focussed on improving the firepower of the CAPFs, while Modernisation Plan II aims to address issues such as training, developing combat skills, improved logistic support and living conditions both in field and station conditions. The Modernisation Plan-II has been divided into six broad heads, i.e. arms and ammunition, vehicles, clothing and tentage, machinery and equipment, administration & logistics and interestingly, solar energy.
Air Wing
The Air Wing of the MHA provides air support to the CAPFs and is an important component of their policing action, more in prominence due to its employment Anti-Naxal Operations(ANO) and avoiding the uncomfortable situation of using the country’s Air Force against own citizens. The air wing came into existence on May 1, 1969 with a single Queen Air C-80 aircraft, to provide air support to CAPFs for casualty evacuations, air maintenance of Border Out Posts (BOPs) and to forces deployed for ANO in LWE affected areas. It also facilitates conveyance of forces for operational purposes, tasks related to assistance during natural calamity/crisis and air courier service of CAPFs personnel. It consists of two wings i.e. fixed wing and rotary wing. Initially established for the BSF (therefore manned and staffed by January 2013
BSF
them) the air wing’s services were extended to cover all CAPF’s in the year 1974. The air wing fleet consists of Embraer-135 J, Avro (HS-748) and Super King B-200 aircraft in the fixed wing and Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH)Dhruv, Cheetah and Mi17 1V in the rotary wing. Actions to add new aircraft to the fleet through MTA and Mi-17 V5 acquisition are in process. The air wing has its bases at New Delhi, Raipur, Ranchi, Agartala and Srinagar, with the fixed wing operations based in Delhi. The BSF had acquired a total of seven (ALH) ‘Dhruvs’ for ANO. Of these two have crashed and the balance were placed under air worthiness checks early this year. Of the total nine Mi-17 helicopters deployed for ANO by the BSF, four IAF Mi-17 helicopters are located in Chhattisgarh, two each at Raipur and Jagdalpur; of the five ‘Dhruvs’, three are at Raipur and two at Ranchi. The air wing is slated to have a fleet of 25 helicopters in the future, about four medium range aircraft having the capacity of 125 seats and a number of smaller 20-30 seater aircraft. According to some reports, the wing will initially comprise eight aircrafts and 16 helicopters. The Central Government is also reportedly looking into a proposal for establishing an air wing for the ITBP, the paramilitary that guards the 3,488-km Indo-China border. The Rs 300-crore proposal for a nine-helicopter fleet has been in the news since 2005.
Effectiveness
Procurement of major equipment usually gets phased for a period of time which
provides an opportunity to bring in modifications/ improvements during the acquisition process as well. For example the CRPF is authorised for 352 Mine-Protected Vehicles (MPVs) of which 36 MPVs are already held by the CRPF. Additional 316 MPVs were sanctioned to CRPF on December 9, 2009 by the government. CRPF placed an order for 90 MPVs with Vehicle Factory Jabalpur (VFJ), out of which 63 MPVs have been supplied by VFJ and the remaining 27 MPVs are under trial. The present holding by CRPF is 99 MPVs. For the procurement of remaining 226 MPVs, CRPF has proposed to purchase them by floating open tender for which fresh Qualitative Requirements (QRs)/ specifications and trial directives are being formulated. The CRPF is finalising the same in consultation with the other CAPFs and the BPR&D. CRPF have also proposed additional authorisation of 182 MPVs. These 182 MPVs has been included in the Modernisation Plan-II. The three year report on major tasks accomplished of the MHA from 01 December 2008 to 30 November 2011 gives out the modern weapons and equipment procured for CAPFs which include 89,641 light weight BP jackets, 67,965 AK-47 rifles; 16,430 Assault rifles; 1,805 Automatic Grenade Launchers; 2,608 Glock pistols; 1,164 hand-held Thermal Imagers; 1,576 MP-5s; 8,109 PNS weapons sights; 105 MPVs; 8 ALHs ; 118 Light Armoured Troop Carriers; 3,174 Deep Search Metal Detectors; 9,792 Passive Night Vision Binoculars etc. The total funds spent on procurement of weapons for the CAPFs during each of the last three years and the current year, force-wise as on April 2012 is at Table 3.
Table 3: Funds spent on procurement of weapons for the CAPFs, (Rs in Crore). Name of the CAPF/PMF
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
2012-13
AR
0.26
14.54
43.44
Nil
BSF
75.06
62.94
81.28
Nil
CISF
36.00
77.00
92.10
Nil
CRPF
99.10
152.00
259.99
Nil
ITBP
27.32
4.25
17.98
Nil
NSG
17.82
25.90
60.18
0.004
SSB
0.53
Nil
266.34
Nil
Total
256.09
336.63
821.31
0.004
Source: MHA-2012. www.geopolitics.in
Conclusion
Force modernisation is effective when troops are well trained on the newly acquired weapons and equipment. The equipment also at times requires modification to drills and employment tactics. These have to be evolved, integrated and practiced prior to employment in operations. Logistic cover including repair support is another important issue which has a bearing on the effectiveness of a force moderni-
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The Sea hounds: The forces protecting the coasts have receved a substantial boost after the 26/11 attacks
sation programme. Rapid acquisition of weapons and equipment without transfer of technology or indigenous manufacturing support affects ability to carry out major repairs and availability of spare parts. This can leave wide gaps in equipment availability and performance early in its life cycle. The MHA’s modernisation programme for the CAPFs focuses only on augmenting the capacity of the forces. It does not look into issues relating to organisational restructuring for better command and control, improved coordination amongst the CAPFs, etc. Today, of the 2862-odd companies of CAPFs in designated conflict zones, 38 per cent are deployed in LWE affected areas and 54 per cent of these are engaged in ANO. These are mainly CRPF (87 per cent) along with BSF and ITBP. The management of internal security with the present mix of CAPFs and SPFs is tenable as long as CRPF, which is trained for internal security duties, remains the lead agency and provides the bulk of the force level required for ANO. However, it must be understood that ANO is psychologically extremely challenging and it is best addresses by rotation of troops/units in and out of conflict zones. As more districts are designated as LWE affected and the level of violence in these areas escalates, the requirement of additional forces will affect the rotation of troops .This also invariably leads to additional deployment of CAPFs not trained for ANO i.e. BSF, ITBP, CISF resulting in coordination issues. The strength of the Indian Armed forces in responding and adapting to multifarious threats and challenges including insurgency lies in the management of its leaders and decision makers; the officer cadre. The forces rotate the tenures of its officers between staff and command tenures in both peace and field locations. This addresses a key imperative of ensuring that the decision makers, planners and leaders are always in touch with the ground realities. Rotation of command element results in effective problem solving skills, individually as well as within the organisation. This aspect is negated in the case of CAPFs which are manned, largely at the higher levels, by officers of the Indian Police Service, who are more bureaucrats than field level commanders. January 2013
REGULATING
SOCIAL MEDIA
Today, India is witnessing a vigorous debate about provisions under the Indian cyber laws, like the Indian Information Technology Act, 2000. The recent arrests for Facebook posts at Mumbai have further triggered the national debate on Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000, all in the name of ensuring peace and security. PAVAN DUGGAL elaborates on the various legal issues and challenges facing social media, given the provisions of Indian cyber law www.geopolitics.in
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T
he Indian judiciary is one of the most vibrant in the world. The Indian Supreme Court has been called upon to determine the legal challenge to the constitutional validity of one of the most controversial and draconian provisions of Indian cyber law. Recent cases in India have triggered a public debate about the efficacy and scope of Section 66A of the Amended Information Technology Act, 2000. This has led to filing of a Public Interest Litigation (PIL) in the Supreme January 2013
g INTERNALSECURITY
Court of India. In this PIL filed by a law student, the Supreme Court of India has issued notices to the Central Government, as well as the State Governments of Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, West Bengal and Delhi, to file their replies within six weeks. Thus, this has started yet another chapter in the growth and evolution of jurisprudence around Indian cyber law. There has been a lot of controversy over the last few months over Section 66A of the Indian Cyber Law being the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000, on different occasions. In the Professor Ambikesh Mahapatra case, the accused was arrested on account of forwarding of caricatures/ cartoons on Facebook. Further, the Ravi Srinivasan Twitter case showed how on a complaint, a person’s tweets could be brought within the ambit of Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000. In the K V Rao case, two men, K V Rao and Mayank from Mumbai, were arrested for allegedly posting offensive comments against some leaders on their Facebook group.The recent case pertaining to Shaheen Dhada, where two girls were arrested for a Facebook post and ‘liking’ it, has become the talking point for all users.In the last few days, we have been seen various discussions about defective IT legislation in India and how there is a need for changing the same.This article aims to explain in common man’s language what Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000 is all about. Section 66A makes it an offence when you send, by means of a computer resource or communication device, any of the following information: • any information that is grossly offensive; • any information that has menacing character; • any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose of causing annoyance; • any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose of causing inconvenience; • any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose of causing danger; • any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose of causing obstruction; • any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose www.geopolitics.in
SMOTHERING OPPOSITION: Indian cyber laws are being manipulated to stifle political dissent and curb freedom of expression
• • • • • • • • •
•
of causing insult; any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose of causing injury; any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose of causing criminal intimidation; any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose of causing enmity; any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose of causing hatred; or any information which you know to be false but which is sent for purpose of causing ill will; All the above as per (3) to (12) must be done persistently by using a computer resource or communication device; any e-mail or electronic mail message for the purpose of causing annoyance; any e-mail or electronic mail message for the purpose of causing inconvenience; any electronic mail or electronic mail message to deceive the addressee or recipient about the origin of such messages; any e-mail or electronic mail message to mislead the addressee or recipient about the origin of such messages.
So if you are a social media user or even if you are a user of a computer system or mobile, be careful! You could be brought within the ambit of this Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000. To help understand the scope of Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000, let us try to examine some common illustrations of acts, which could come under Section
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66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000. When you send either by means of a computer, computer system, computer network or mobile phone, smart phone, tablet computer, personal digital assistants, or any other communication devices, the following kind of information, you could be covered under Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000: • If you swear or abuse somebody, the swear words could be said to be grossly offensive. The same could also be said to be having a menacing character and your act could come within the ambit of Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000. • Anything defamatory which affects the character, reputation, standing or goodwill of a person could also be deemed to be grossly offensive. • Making false allegations against the character of a person or character assassination could also qualify as grossly offensive and having menacing character. • Using insulting words or symbols which are obscene, could also qualify as grossly offensive and having menacing character. • Calling someone names could also be brought within the ambit of being grossly offensive or having menacing character. • Posting the picture of a person in uncomplimentary situations and environments could also be said to be grossly offensive or having menacing character. For example, if you morphed the photograph of a girl/ boy’s face on the face of an erotic/ nude model’s body, the same could not only be obscene but could also be grossly offensive and having menacing character. • Electronic morphing which shows a person depicted in a bad light could also be seen as an example of information being grossly offensive or having menacing character. • Using vernacular bad words in English alphabets could also qualify as grossly offensive or having menacing character. • Threatening somebody with consequences for his life, apart from being separate offences, could be also conJanuary 2013
g •
• • • •
•
•
•
strued as information which is grossly offensive or having menacing character. Threatening to expose the ill-deeds of somebody could also qualify as information which has menacing character. Information containing malicious, mischievous character assassination. Information containing morphed pictures aimed at hurting religious sentiments. Information showing gods and goddesses of particular religions in an uncomplimentary light. Putting the picture of a person against a slogan/phrase/saying which does not depict his true character or personality. Deceiving the addressee or recipient about the origin of such messages. For example, sending e-mails from a fake e-mail account to another person, could qualify as an offence under Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000. Further misleading the addressee or recipient about the origin of such messages, e.g. sending e-mails and SMSs in the name of Reserve Bank of India for big lotteries, could also be brought under Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000. E-mail containing fake recruitment offers to unsuspected members of the public, could also qualify as an offence under Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000.
The aforesaid are just some illustrations to demonstrate how broad Section 66A of the Indian Information Technology Act, 2000 is, and how, and in what particular comprehensive manner it can impact you and your life. The said illustrations are neither comprehensive nor complete but have been given as selective examples of the ambit of Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000, for academic, research and review purposes only. The language and scope of legal terms used under Section 66A is very wide and capable of distinctive varied interpretations. Seen from another angle, Section 66A can be effectively used as a tool for gagging legitimate free online speech. The problem under Section 66A is that it www.geopolitics.in
dorset-college.ie
INTERNALSECURITY
DIGITAL TRACKING: It is now possible to track the movement of people across cyberspace through the digital fingerprints that one leaves behind on servers around the world
comes up with extremely wide parameters which have not been given any specific definitions under the law. These parameters are capable of being interpreted in any manner possible, by the law-enforcement agencies. As such, while Section 66A talks about sending any information that is grossly offensive or having menacing character, the law does not give any guidance as to what is grossly offensive or information having menacing character. Thus, it is left to the subjective discretion of the law-enforcement agencies in this regard. All wide meaning terms used under Section 66A have not been defined, which itself provides huge amount of flexibility in Section 66A to be used in any circumstances perceivable. Thus, large portions of legitimate free online speech could also be brought within the ambit of Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000. Given the advent of technology and the way people are misusing the same, there could be millions of situations which could qualify as offences under Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000.
Learnings
The learnings from Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000 are that till such time Section 66A is either changed, modified, varied or amended, it will be imperative that you exercise due diligence when you send information on the internet, social media and mobile networks. Kindly note that the focus of the law under Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000, is not on publishing information, the focus is on the offence of sending information. This assumes more sig-
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nificance, since whenever you are on the internet or when you are sending e-mail or posting or publishing a blog or creating an SMS, as you are sending these electronic records from your computer system or communication device. Hence, be very careful before you send information on electronic platforms and computer networks.
Conclusion
There are problems in the way Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000 has been drafted. Though it has been inspired by noble objectives of protecting reputations and preventing misuse of networks, this provision has not been able to achieve its goals. The language of Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000 goes far beyond the reasonable restrictions on free speech, as mandated under Article 19(2) of the Constitution of India. For India, being the world’s largest, vibrant democracy, reasonable restrictions on free speech need to be very strictly construed. Section 66A of the amended Indian Information Technology Act, 2000 has the potential of prejudicially impacting free speech in the digital and mobile ecosystem and to be amended to made the Indian cyber law in sync with the principles enshrined in the Constitution of India and also with the existing realities of social media and digital platforms today. With the Public Interest Litigation challenging the constitutional validity of Section 66A of the amended Information Technology Act, 2000 pending before the Supreme Court of India, the Supreme Court is likely to examine meticulously the legal intricacies and challenges inherent in Section 66A of the amended Information Technology Act, 2000. The Supreme Court would be guided by the principles enshrined in the Constitution of India as also by rule of law as it proceeds to deal with the challenge to the constitutional validity of Section 66A of the amended Information Technology Act, 2000. The hopes and aspirations of netizens and users of digital platforms of India are all pinned upon the Supreme Court of India. The Supreme Court of India has been the protector of fundamental rights enshrined under the Constitution of India. It will be interesting to see the developments in this regard as time passes by. (The author is a leading advocate and cyber law expert.)
January 2013
geopolitics
DIPLOMACY
INTERNALSECURITY
Japan’s Prime Minister for the second time, Shinzo Abe sees a great role for India towards the stability in the Asia-Pacific region www.geopolitics.in
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December 2012
TTTNIS WIKIPEDIA
HAPPY TIME AGAIN
O N LO O K E R
women power
nknews.org
Park Geun-hye was elected South Korea’s first woman president in December 2012 marking a watershed moment in the country’s history. Fervent supporters thronged to her residence in Gangnam, Seoul after she edged past her rival Moon Jae-in with the election witnessing a 75.8 per cent voter turnout. Her rival Moon Jae-in, a former human rights lawyer belonging to the leftwing Democratic United Party (DUP), conceded defeat and congratulated Park on her momentous victory. Park is the daughter of South Korean dictator Park
the Kerry show
Budget woes for Monti
Fulfilling his earlier promise, Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti resigned after the budget was passed by legislators in December 2012. Monti, an economist and a former European Commissioner, was appointed as PM and served in office for a period of 13 months. His decision came as his predecessor Silvio Berlusconi, leader of the People of Freedom Party (PdL) withdrew support to the Monti government. Political analysts said that the move meant early elections in February 2013. Berlusconi is all set to campaign for a fourth term as Prime Minister. Italy is already facing a turbulent economic crisis www.geopolitics.in
and the political instability is further cause for concern for existing and potential investors. Monti was appointed for his expertise in economic matters with the hope that he would able to revive the fragile economy. In his last speech before tendering in his resignation, Monti said that the 13 months in office had been “difficult but fascinating”. Early opinion polls projected that the centre-left Democratic Party headed by Pierluigi Bersani could emerge as the single largest party in the elections due to be held in 2013. However, analysts were not convinced that it would be able to get a clear majority.
Senator John Kerry, former presidential candidate who lost out to former Republican President George W. Bush in 2004, is all set to be the next US Secretary of State. At the time of the announcement, Kerry was the chief of Senate Foreign Relations Committee. He is known for his adept handling of delicate diplomatic issues and a persona that has ensured the backing of both Democrats and Republicans for his appointment. According to retired American diplomat Nicholas Burns, there are very few people with greater experience over a longer period of time. In an interview Burns was quoted saying, “You really need someone who is a renaissance person with a tremendous range of skill, both political and
SYRIA GOING BROKE
The catastrophic Syrian civil war has witnessed casualties in excess of 40,000 and the displacement of about three million people from their homes. With no possible political resolution in sight, prominent economists have said that the devastation and bloodshed would only come to an end when Syrian President Bashar Assad’s regime goes bankrupt which they believed could happen soon enough. Samir Seifan, a renowned Syrian economist who fled the country in 2011 due to the
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civil strife, says that the “economy is the basis of everything. Without services, boots, money, you cannot do anything. If the government cannot finance the army, they (soldiers) will simply go away”. Even with the continued support of its allies, Syria’s economic future seems extremely bleak as it is already ridden with wartime debts from which it would take almost decades to recover. January 2013
wikipedia
andrewgavinmarshall.com
Chung-hee who ruled the country for 18 years. Experts said her lineage was instrumental in determining the outcome of the elections which were among the most divisive in the country’s history. There was a mixed reaction to the presidentialelect during her campaign. Among her more conservative followers belonging to the older generation she was viewed as the daughter of the iconic ruler who was the architect of South Korea’s economic revival at a time when the nation was reeling from the adverse effects of the Korean War. On the other hand, the youth of the country are more mindful of the fact
O N LO O K E R demise compelled Park to become the de facto First Lady at the early age of 22. However, during the presidential campaign she shared a moderate stance with her rival as far as ties with North Korea were concerned. It was a decisive break from that of the incumbent President Myung-bak. Her predecessor’s reluctance to engage in dialogue with North Korea was deemed as a failed approach by a majority of South Koreans. Park Geunhye championed women’s rights during campaign stated she would take up the issue of gender inequality if elected. South Korea ranked 108 in the World Economic Forum’s gender-gap index.
us govt.
substantive, with a deep reservoir of knowledge.” Susan Rice, US Ambassador to the United Nations, was also in contention for the post of the top US diplomat. However, she withdrew from the race after facing flak from Republicans for her misleading comments on a television talk show about the assault on the US consulate in Benghazi, Libya. Kerry is a Vietnam War veteran and has held the Massachusetts congressional seat for five consecutive terms. He is a known India-admirer and had enthusiatically supported the Indo-US nuclear deal.
Determined Barbosa makes it to the top
Joaquim Barbosa, at present Brazil’s favourite son, became the first black President of Brazil’s Supreme Court in December 2012. The atmosphere in Rio de Janeiro was almost like that of a carnival as jubilant fans wore Barbosa masks to honour their hero. He played a decisive role in the conviction of 25 people in October 2012 for misappropriating about $ 35 million of tax-payers’ money in way of bribes for ministers to buy their support for the Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s minority government in 2003 and 2004. Barbosa was unwavering in his determination to seek guilty verdicts and appropriate sentences for the culprits, including Lula’s former aide Jose Dirceu who was expectedly handed out a jail term. From his humble beginnings as a bricklayer’s son, this epitome of national pride paid for law school by working as cleaner and typesetter. Barbosa was hailed by politicians and celebrities alike for his uncompromising ideals and his unflinching efforts were even more laudable considering the fact that he was appointed by Lula after the latter
debatepublico.com.br
that the dictator was infamous for his repressive measures and crackdown on political opponents and critics. Park will formally assume office in February 2013 at a time when she would be required to address economic issues, such as inadequate employment for the country’s youth and income inequalities. Strenuous diplomatic ties with North Korea continue to be a major area of concern for the country. Park’s own history is inextricably linked to the hostility between the two neighbours. Her mother Yuk Young-soo was assassinated by a North Korean sympathizer who had intended to kill the President. Her mother’s
had assumed office in 2003. Talking about the challenges that lie ahead for Brazil’s justice system, Barbosa said, “I must be intellectually honest and say there is a great justice deficit among us.” He added, “Not all Brazilians are treated equally.” He concluded by saying that what one often sees is “special treatment and privileges that have no basis in reason.” Even though Brazil boasts of one of the largest African-heritage populations outside the African continent, a handful of them hold important positions in business or politics. Many are hoping that Barbosa’s appointment in the wake of the corruption trials will lead to affirmative action on the issue of racial discrimination.
Charismatic US President Barack Obama has once again been named Time magazine’s Person of the Year. If the presidential elections in 2008 were considered an epoch-making chapter in American history, then Obama’s re-election in 2012 can certainly be designated an important landmark as well. Not only does it prove that his win in the previous elections was not an aberration but also serves as an emphatic mandate for the policies that he incorporated during his tenure. The victory margin of 5 million votes was much higher than the expectations of even his www.geopolitics.in
most ardent supporters. In addition to this, he has achieved the incredible feat of becoming the first Democratic President since Franklin D. Roosevelt to get a majority of the popular vote twice in succession in over 75 years and the only sixth President in history to do so. Obama was credited with redefining American politics with efforts to build a winning coalition “in the midst of historic cultural and demographic changes” by Time’s Editor Rick Stengel. He further added, “For finding and forging a new majority, for turning weakness
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into opportunity and for seeking, amid great adversity, to create a more perfect union, Barack Obama is Time’s 2012 Person of the Year.”
obama/flickr
No time-out for Obama
January 2013
diplomacy
FROM BANGLADESH WITH LOVE Begum Khalida Zia’s recent visit to India has helped to create awareness in New Delhi that despite her Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the ruling Awami League being at each other’s throats, there is a growing consensus between them that a benign India could be an important factor in fighting Islamic fundamentalists, argues BHASKAR ROY
I
ndia has always been in the centre of Bangladesh’s politics because of its involvement in the country’s War of Liberation in 1971. India, therefore, naturally falls on the wrong side of the anti-liberation and pro-Pakistan forces, often synonymous with Islamic terrorists and backed strongly by the BNP, particularly in between 2001 and 2006. Now that the country is getting into an election mode—general elections are just over a year away—the India-factor will be increasingly heard in the Bangladesh polity. India has been perceived as proAwami League right since the days of late President Zia-ur-Rehman, who founded the BNP in 1978. Though he was not anti-liberation, his anti-India mindset took him to the questionable path of resurrecting the hitherto banned pro-Pakistan Jamat-e-Islami (JEI). The BNP’s attitude towards India became so vitriolic that it defied reason. However, recent developments suggest that the party is reconsidering this policy. BNP Chairperson Begum Khaleda Zia’s visit to India (October 28-November 3) has initiated new political debates in Bangladesh. Her rare positive approach in India, as well as back home, could herald a new
www.geopolitics.in
dawn. Among the Bangladesh-watchers in India and the Indian media, the contrast between Begum Zia’s visit when she was Prime Minister and her recent visit, was so stark that varying opinions were inevitable. As Prime Minister, Begum Khalida led, perhaps, the most anti-India government ever. She was not an eager visitor then. This time around, however, Begum Khalida came with an olive branch and her positions on India bemused anyone with any interest in India-Bangladesh relations. It is not in India’s interest, nor is India interested, in a politically-divided Bangladesh. For India, such a situation would be a living nightmare. And India lived it during the BNP-JEI alliance rule from 2001 to 2006. The details are well known and recorded. The then Bangladeshi Foreign Minister had threatened that if India surrounded Bangladesh, Bangladesh also surrounded India. And they acted on the threat and moved to set India’s north-east on fire. Despite all this India reached out to Prime Minister Begum Khalida Zia at that time, only to be spurned. However, people on both sides of the India-Bangladesh border are still not convinced of Begum Khalida Zia’s political
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sentiments expressed during the visit. It is natural. Why this somersault on her part? Veteran Bangladeshi political commentator and columnist Harun Habib, wrote in the daily Kaler Kantho (November 19) that Khalida Zia’s time—tested allies are extremists, fundamentalists and Islamists, and one should not expect anything from her statements and promises made when she was in India. Many such questions are being raised in Bangladesh. Interestingly, since she returned home from her India visit, Begum Zia has been circumspect in her public statements on India. Senior BNP leaders are in a quandary on how to explain to the party their leader’s changed position on India. One senior BNP leader ventured an explanation that the BNP’s India Policy had not changed and Begum Zia only highlighted the pending issues with India. BNP Standing Committee member Tarique Islam hastened to add (November 6) that the relationship with India will be based on equality, dignity and sovereignty. For some time now, the BNP has been trying to maintain a distance from JEI, especially on issues related to the 1971 War of Liberation and the war crimes trial. For the Jamatis and other anti-liberation groups, Prime January 2013
PIB
MEMORABLE VISIT: Prime Minister Manmohan Singh with Begum Khaleda Zia, Leader of Opposition and President of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party, in New Delhi on October 29, 2012.
Minister Sheikh Hasina’s determination to concentrate or war crimes while even putting aside the case on assassination attempts on her life is a dangerous signal. That would suggest that the government may try to get a verdict even before December 14, the surrender day of the Pakistani Army in Dhaka to the Indian Army. If JEI leaders are convicted, and there is overwhelming evidence against them, they will be shown up as traitors to the cause of the motherland and fifth columnists. They can be washed out of Bangladesh’s politics and their plan to convert the country into an Islamic Republic under Sharia law may remain unfulfilled. The sharp rise of JEIICS street agitations across the country, mostly violent, indicates that the religious right-wingers are on a serious warpath which can shake the country. There are two important external influences working in Bangladesh. The US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Dan Mozzena, recently suggested that the Bangladesh government sit down with the JEI to www.geopolitics.in
sort out the street agitations by the latter. This obviously enraged the Awami League and its allies who retorted asking sharply how the US could ask the liberation forces to sit down with anti-liberation forces. It is unfortunate that the US would interfere in such a situation in this region, for whatever reason, because it can sprout right-wing religious extremism. Terrorist activities have been contained to a great extent, but they are alive and show their hand from time to time. Positions taken by human rights organisations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch are, sometimes, simply bewildering. They continue to be highly critical of the procedures of the war crimes trials. The European Union (EU) has its own standards on trials and executions. This is understandable to an extent. But they must understand that the developing world, especially South Asia, is still at the position of 18th and 19th century Europe in many ways. Post World War-II and the shocking genocidal policies perpetrated by Hitler’s Germany shocked the continent to seek ways forward for unity, passivity and humanity among themselves. But one must not forget the Yugoslavia’s disintegration and the politics of turf capture,
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and the bloodshed that ensued. No one needs to be sanctimonious. The crimes of the Nazis, Italian fascists and the Japanese war machines were brought to a closure when the perpetrators were punished. Some cases took many, many years. In the case of Bangladesh, the war crimes of 1971 have to be adjudicated and brought to a conclusion, and the guilty punished. Many attempts have been made to obfuscate the whole episode. That is why the country remains divided and always in turmoil. The BNP must realise that along with the globalising world, Bangladesh has changed. Economic development is the touchstone and emancipation of women has reached new heights. Despite the JEI’s opposition to liberation of women, including their right to education, assembly and national progress, the country has moved forward under the Awami League-led government. Begum Zia, as a woman herself and a top leader of the nation, must see other women enjoy equal rights, no matter which section or state of society they come from. Putting aside the past, Khaleda Zia has, however, titillated the imagination of a lot of people on both sides of the border. Till now, her position has not been January 2013
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Begum Zia on bilateral issues, as reported in the press during her India-visit
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On relations with India
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On how to manage the border
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On the issue of terrorism
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On the role of SAARC
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On connectivity with South East Asia
Let us look ahead for the benefit of our people on the basis of mutual benefit and mutual respect. Let us overcome the problem of the lack of confidence and trust among our people in our relationship. We must correct distortions in the more than 4000-km-long boundary that was drawn by our colonial rulers. It is a historical fact there is a lot of movement of people through these borders. In resolving this issue, we should be guided by international laws, conventions and practices that guide management of international boundaries and the movement of people through them Terrorism is a menace that we must work together to eliminate. Here we may find the SAARC Regional Convention on Suppression of Terrorism, 1987 and the Additional Protocol to this Convention, 2004, helpful. South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was the brainchild of the BNP founder, Shaheed President Zia-ur Rahman. Unfortunately, it has not progressed satisfactorily. The need of the hour is to demonstrate greater political will by the member states. SAARC can be a viable tool for regional economic cooperation in South Asia. I strongly advocate connectivity as a way for closer integration with South East Asia, China, Japan and Korea. After all, both India and Bangladesh pursue the ‘Look East’ policy. It will facilitate increased trade and movement of people and ideas. Geopolitics Bureau
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convincing. She and the BNP will have to prove themselves. One may now return to the JEI and like minded anti-liberation forces. Taking the contentious issue of dissolution of the caretaker government system for elections by the Awami League-led government, on November 28, the JEI Assistant Secretary General Mojibur Rahman issued a veiled threat that if Prime Minister Hasina did not rescind the decision, her life could be in danger. Mojbur Rahman made this statement at a gathering of BNP-led 18party alliance. It is difficult to gauge the seriousness of Rahman’s mind. But suffice it to say at least that three attempts were made on Hasina’s life between 2001 and 2004, and the last attempt injured her seriously. There is enough evidence with Bangladesh courts now that the assassination conspiracies were hatched by high level leaders of the BNP with JEI assistance and they employed terrorists, including a the HUJI (Harkat-ul-Jihad al-Islami) commander. The BNP will have to decide whether it will go with the JEI or not. The more threatening indication is that the JEI may be planning riots and chaos in the country to scuttle the war crimes trial. If that happens, it will not only destroy Bangladesh’s political and economic rejuvenation, but also impact the region and hold out a new lifeline to international terrorism. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has called upon the BNP to discard the JEI and work for the country’s future. Political parties have strong differences on issues, but they need not be enemies trying to slit each other’s throat. Can the BNP discard the JEI? Clear indicators suggest that the two are not on the same page as far as the war crimes trial is concerned. The fundamental that Begum Zia must understand is that BNP’s founder Zia-ur-Rahaman, who was her husband, was a leading freedom fighter while the founder of JEI (Bangladesh), Professor Golam Azam, and his successors, were antiliberation. Rehabilitating the JEI may have been a strategic mistake of President Zia. But mistakes have to be corrected for the greater good. Begum Zia and her advisors must realise that it was the JEI which used them, and not they the JEI. Bangladesh is elegantly situated to make the best of India’s ‘Look East’ strategy and international road connectivity. The India-Myanmar Kaladan project is on its way. The Asian Highway project is on the anvil. India’s
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new economic initiative with the ASEAN can also be married here. If Dhaka is united to provide India road connectivity to its North East—instead of putting up specious excuses that in case of a India-China war Beijing will annoyed with Dhaka if India is allowed to move its troops through this road—it will be to its advantage. Before coming to India, Begum Zia visited China and would have heard from her Chinese counterpart about their current India strategy to some extent. At least, Beijing would have advised her not to continue with BNP’s anti-India posture and rhetoric. It would be wise for her advisors to brief her that Beijing has similarly told Pakistan not to pursue an antagonistic policy towards India. Anti-India Nepalese parties have also been told by Beijing that China will not counter India on their behalf. Equally important, China is not inclined to support Islamist extreme groups like the JEI. They have their own growing Islamic terrorist challenges. Certainly, Sheikh Hasina and her Awami League-led government have delivered hard blows to terrorists. India is a beneficiary from this policy. But internally, some of these groups are raising their heads. Along with Sheikh Hasina and others, Begum Zia is one of their prime targets for assassination because they presume she has betrayed them. The umbilical cord joining Islamic terrorists and the JEI is well known. All top BNP leaders must sit down together and take an account of gains and losses. They will find that they are deep in the negative by following their old strategies deftly shaped by the JEI, and the shortterm greed of some of their own leaders. Bangladesh could be in a win-win situation if the BNP supported the government on some vital India-related issues, especially in the vital power sector. India, on the other hand, must deliver on agreements especially the full utilisation of the one billion dollar credit line, lifting of tariff and non-tariff barriers, resolving the Teesta and other river water disputes, to name a few. India’s surge must start at least by January-February 2013 and culminate by November-December 2013. Let not major things spill over to the next government in Bangladesh, though some issues rest with the rigid posture of the current Trinamul government in West Bengal. (A retired senior government official, the author is a New Delhi- based strategic analyst.)
January 2013
REGIONALPRISM
The new face of al-Qaeda in Pakistan Pakistan has recently experienced a dramatic upsurge in sectarian violence against its Shia Muslim minority. According to Gohar Abbas, many observers attribute this spike in violence to top-level personnel changes in the Pakistani wing of al-Qaeda.
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he recent upsurge of sectarian violence in Pakistan not only poses a renewed and serious threat to this most fragile of states but it also suggests that the domestic leadership of al-Qaeda is undergoing a paradigm and ideological shift. As the Arab leadership of al-Qaeda gradually relocates to Yemen, vacant positions in the organisation are increasingly being filled by local Islamist militants.
Latest sectarian attacks
According to Human Rights Watch, at least 320 members of the Shia community were killed in Pakistan between January and September of this year, with this number increasing every day. For instance, at least five people were killed and several others injured after a bomb attack on a Shia Imambargah (Mosque) in Karachi on November 21 during the holy Shia month of Muharram. Later that day, a suicide bomber blew himself up near a Shia procession in the city of Rawalpindi —home to the General Headquarters of the Pakistani army—killing 23 people and injuring many more. In response, the government subsewww.geopolitics.in
quently suspended mobile phone services across Pakistan for two days in a bid to avert further terror attacks on Shia commemorations. However, terrorists still succeeded in attacking a Muharram procession in Dera Ismael Khan, leaving five people dead and dozens injured. The Tehreek Taliban Pakistan (TTP) an alQaeda offshoot, claimed responsibility for all the attacks. Large, well-organised attacks on Shias now also take place in regions that have previously been considered more stable such as Gilgit-Baltistan. In August, over a dozen gunmen wearing Pakistani Army uniforms stopped a number of buses between Gilgit and Rawalpindi. After identifying the Shias among the travellers, the gunmen forced 19 these passengers off the buses and shot them at point-blank range. This was the third such incident in six months on the Karakorum Highway. Similar execution-style attacks by Islamist militants had previously taken place in February of this year. The TTP and Jandullah, another militant group affiliated with al-Qaeda, claimed responsibility for these attacks.
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State-sponsored sectarian conflict
Sectarian conflict in Pakistan has blighted the country since independence. It was partly embedded by the state in its attempts to forge a national identity based on a rigid form of Islam, replacing the Sufi tradition and teachings with the Salafi school of thought. During the dictatorial regime of Zia-ul-Haq (1977-1988), Pakistan’s sectarian divide reached a new height, when Haq introduced his controversial Islamisation policies. The Iran-Iraq war further heightened sectarian tensions as both Iran and Saudi Arabia started financing armed groups from their respective sects inside Pakistan to counter each other’s influence. State support for Mujahideen fighters engaged in conflict with the Soviet Union in Afghanistan further impeded mutual coexistence in Pakistan. Sectarian conflict and the targeted killing of Shias in Pakistan also continued throughout the 1990s with impunity. Yet after the US invasion of Afghanistan the number of incidences of sectarian killing inside of Pakistan declined, as new fronts opened for militants in Afghanistan and Pakistan. However, over the past two years sectarian violence January 2013
Iqbal Khattak/centralasiaonline.com
THE SEIGE WITHIN: A file photo of Pakistani Taliban militants at their base in North Waziristan in 2008. These militants teamed up with Afghans to battle against the coalition forces in Afghanistan and the military in Pakistan
has returned to Pakistan, most notably in Baluchistan, where targeted attacks on Shias have now become a daily phenomenon. The latest upsurge in sectarian violence is primarily attributed to members of anti-Shia sectarian outfits like Sipahe Sahaba (SSP) and Lashkar Jhangvi (LeJ) joining the ranks of al-Qaeda. These organizations now dominate the higher ranks of the terrorist group in Pakistan, while the Arab leadership of al-Qaeda has largely relocated to Yemen. SSP and LeJ are among the groups that Pakistan once provided moral and material support. These outfits have also been sponsored by Saudi Arabia to counter a possible spillover of Iran’s Islamic revolution into Pakistan.
The new leaders
Multiple sources with access to al-Qaeda and its offshoots confirm that leadership has been transferred to local fighters at the operational level. An al-Qaeda member based in Miranshah, North Waziristan, said Moulana Asmat Ulla Maviya, a Punjabi fighter, has been appointed head of the operational command of al-Qaeda in Pakistan. Maviya had previously been associated with Jaish-e- Muhammad (JeM), a jihadi organization based in Kashmir. In 2010, when the Punjabi Taliban was formed he became the main recruiter for the group in South Punjab. Maviya is also suspected of the kidnapping of three Western aid workers and the abduction of Shahbaz Taseer, the son of late Salman Taseer, a Pakistani businessman and former Governor of Punjab. Unlike his peers, Maviya is more interested in strengthening different militant www.geopolitics.in
groups cooperating with al-Qaeda in Pakistan’s urban areas than recruiting fighters for the organisation’s global agenda. An al-Qaeda commander based in Miranshah who fights under the command of Asmat Ulla Maviya (and who wished to remain anonymous) said: “There is no difference between SSP and us. We both are fighting for the same cause, and it’s easier and more effective to have people in their native areas than having all of them in the tribal areas.” The commander went on to explain that for the Punjabi speaking people belonging to SSP and LeJ it was naturally easier to operate in their hometowns rather than other areas. “The cause should be the same, it never matters what name or organization you choose as a label,” he told the commander. The growing influence of sectarian outfits in the metropolitan areas of the country has also been recognized in various segments of the Pakistani press. An official from the leading civilian intelligence agency also confirmed that sectarian outfits like SSP and LeJ were becoming stronger in the cities. Sources also report that Ustad Ahmed Farooq, who was previously responsible for al-Qaeda’s operations in Pakistan, has been placed in charge of the group’s media wing, Al Sahab. Farooq previously headed Harkat-e-Jihad ul Islami, also known as 313 Brigade. This group was the most feared wing of al-Qaeda in Pakistan and behind some of its biggest attacks, including the attack on Pakistan Navy’s Mehran air base in Karachi in May 2011.
From asset to liability
After the US invasion of Afghanistan,
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Pakistan’s jihadists shifted focus from Kashmir to Pakistan’s tribal areas. However, the wider movement seems to be going through another phase of transition and is establishing itself in the urban areas of the country with the aim of waging a war against the minority Shia population. These changes will inevitably pose a major challenge to the state, which had itself sponsored the militants for decades. Once used to pursue Pakistan’s ‘strategic depth’ in Afghanistan and Kashmir, the jihadists are now weakening the very roots of the state by undermining the already fragile co-existence between different Muslim sects. After the scheduled withdrawal of NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2014, Pakistan will be especially vulnerable to the returning militants. “The Shias and other Muslim minorities are more prone to violence in the months ahead”, says Mohammad Raashid, an expert on al-Qaeda and the Taliban. “The transition of al-Qaeda from…a terrorist organization with a global agenda to becoming a sectarian organization is due to the new mindset…at the operational level in Pakistan.” The new breed of al-Qaeda leadership in Pakistan is taking the sectarian divide to new heights, thereby pushing the country closer to the brink of being a failed state. With a weak government in power, an increasing deterioration of law and order and a fast collapsing economy, the new trend of sectarian violence might be a final step to the complete disintegration of Pakistan. (The author is a freelance journalist from Pakistan and this essay first appeared in ISN Security Watch)
January 2013
Kuwait is in the midst of an intensifying political crisis that poses the greatest risk to the country since its liberation after the 1991 Gulf War. While its difficulties are distinct from the wider regional upheaval, the Arab Spring has energised the political opposition, writes ASH NARAIN ROY from Kuwait City, after monitoring the latest round of national elections One man, one vote’ is a globally accepted democratic practice. However, when the Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad Al-Sabah, issued a decree cutting the number of votes per citizen from four to one, all hell broke in the opposition ranks. While the Emir’s intended objective was to rectify a flawed system bringing Kuwait’s electoral democracy in conformity with global practice, the opposition cried blue www.geopolitics.in
murder. The December 1, 2012 election to the Kuwaiti Parliament was somewhat unusual. It saw the election being boycotted by opposition groups and as such the voters’ turn-out was around 40 per cent. The huge rally organised by the opposition on the eve of election conveyed an unmistakable message: all was not well with the system. Kuwait has seen months of political bickering and confrontations between the opposition and government. Thanks to the boycott, the minority Shia community, constituting about 30 per cent of the country’s population, has bagged 15 seats against seven in the 50-member parliament it won in the February elections this year. On the other hand, the Sunni Islamists’ seat tally has been reduced from 23 to four, which was of course, self-inflicted. As one Arab observer quipped, “You can’t have the cake and eat it too.”
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Kuwaitelections2012
THE ‘SPRING’ IN KUWAIT
The opposition held 36 seats in the dissolved 2012 parliament. Kuwait’s three biggest bedouin tribes—the Awazem, Mutair and Ajmans with a combined population of over 400,000—won only one seat against an average of 17 in the previous parliament because of the boycott. One could argue that it was the monopoly of the majoritarian tribes that the Emir’s decree has sought to break. As expected, the opposition has characterised these elections as ‘unconstitutional’ saying the new Parliament does not represent the majority of the Kuwaiti people. It has vowed to press on with protests until a newly-elected parliament is abolished and a disputed law scrapped. Faisal al-Muslim, former MP and Islamist opposition leader, said, “We will continue with our national and peaceful protests under the umbrella of the constitution to bring the downfall of the new parliament.” January 2013
g DIPLOMACY THE ANOMALY: While it continues to be the only functioning democracy in the Gulf region, Kuwait’s progress has got stuck in the mire for over a decade
Kuwait-Ra’ed Qutena
Those who participated in the elections maintain that the ‘one man, one vote’ system has opened the door for ordinary citizens. It has made them important and added value to their votes. The earlier system helped the powerful and numerically-strong tribal groups to monopolise the polity by distributing the political spoils. While Kuwaiti democracy continues to be the only functioning democracy in the Gulf region, the country’s onward march to democracy has got stuck in the mire for over a decade now. Thaar Al-Rashidi, a leading Kuwaiti journalist, puts it succinctly: “Democracy is not Dinar power. It is also not tribalism, nor is it sectarianism. Even falling into the arms of authority is no democracy. Kuwait’s problem is how
BENIGN RULER: Protests followed Kuwaiti Emir Sheikh Sabah al-Ahmad Al-Sabah’s decree cutting the number of votes per citizen from four to one
to disengage the notion of democracy in Kuwait from the forces of tribalism, sectarianism, money power and authority. Every time democracy heads off in any of these four directions, it leads us to a disaster.” Democracy, Al-Rashidi further adds, “is not a buffet spread from where you can pick up what suits you and leave what you don’t like.” With a per capita income of more than $48,000, Kuwait is not only one of the richest countries in the world, it has also exemplified a democratic model since the www.geopolitics.in
Kuwait’s parliament is a democratically elected body with full legislative powers with the right to investigate government conduct, openly debate issues, and even overrule the Emir early 1960s in the region surrounded by autocracies. It is one of the most modern, liberal and outward-looking countries with a degree of pluralism and openness to the world that few countries in the region can match. The first democratic elections in Kuwait were held way back in December 1961 for a constituent assembly which drew up the constitution. Even though Kuwaiti democracy has not been perfect, it has kept the flame of democracy alight in a region where some states have neither elections nor parliaments. Though some states have held elections and given voting rights to women, only Kuwait enjoys an open political system which still stands in stark contrast to the sea of non-democracies that surrounds it. The Kuwaiti parliament is a democratically-elected body with full legislative powers. It has the right to investigate government conduct, openly debate issues, approve laws and even overrule the Emir’s decrees. These are not merely symbolic powers; only genuine democracies have granted these rights to their parliaments. The Kuwaiti parliament has the characteristics of the deliberative body as it exists in established democracies. It is this power that MPs have exercised, some would say, abused to flex their muscles and the country is paying the price in the form of endless political and systemic deadlocks. The present deadlock has been in the making for a long time now. The 1992 elections did not live up to the expectations of those who had predicted that post-liberation polls would mark the birth of a ‘new
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Kuwait’. The 1996 elections produced a parliament which was an eclectic mix of arch conservative Islamists, a handful of liberals and a large bloc of loyalist politicians. It was largely anti-reform but unflaggingly loyal to the Al Sabah family. Since 2006 Kuwait has seen a deadlock of sorts between the assertive parliament and a non-obliging Emir. The Kuwaiti parliament has been dissolved five times since 2006 and the Cabinet has stepped down seven times. Economic reforms have come to a standstill. In February 2012, Kuwait held elections which were annulled in June by the Constitutional Court, triggering a new crisis as the court reinstated the previous parliament. Protests and demonstrations followed creating uncertainty and political turmoil. It was at that stage that the Emir intervened by ordering the dissolution of that parliament and announcing fresh elections. What led to the uproar was the Emir’s decree to reduce the number of candidates a voter could elect from four to one. This writer has covered four elections in Kuwait including the two this year. The election campaign is nothing less than a wedding feast of Kuwaiti democracy. However, this time the campaign was lacklustre because of the opposition boycott. The visit to the Diwaniyyas, is indeed quite instructive. These are the heartbeats of Kuwaiti democracy. Democracy finds its true expression in this traditional institution which is an informal gathering of relatives and friends who share a common interest. Diwaniyyas cover a whole gamut of issues from politics to sports. Such gatherings are characterised by a fairly free exchange of ideas; they allow individuals who are otherwise shut out of the political process the opportunity to express their views. These Diwaniyyas become campaign headquarters during the month-long canvassing and consist of a patch of wasteland filled with hundreds of seats and air-conditioned marquees, brightly lit at night where voters listen to speeches and partake of rich delicacies. So much has changed in Kuwait since the early days of liberation. Everything has become bigger—the shops, the houses, the whole of Kuwait. The souks have been updated and refurbished and new shopping malls and high rise buildings have come up all over the city. The transformation of Kuwait City into a modern metropolis has led to a colossal demand for foreign workers. Kuwait has experiJanuary 2013
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Liberal Nation: Kuwait is one of the most modern, liberal and outward-looking countries with a degree of pluralism and openness to the world
enced rapid development and unprecedented wealth but analysts contend it could have grown more had the fractured polity not come in the way. The stability will not only ensure Kuwait’s rapid economic development but will also help its hydro-carbon economy to a knowledgebased economy. Despite certain democratic deficits and systemic inadequacies, Kuwait remains a beacon of emerging democracy in the Middle Eastern region. The stability and longevity of its democratic and legal institutions have created the space for economic and political development. Kuwait has proved itself to be a responsible international player. It has a key role to play in democratisation of the region and in promoting regional stability. Kuwait has exemplified another fine example of how oil wealth is used for the welfare of people. In fact, the Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development—the first such initiative by a developing country operational since 1961—has the objective of ensuring that the country’s oil wealth is put to benefit Kuwait’s neighbours and friends alike. The Fund remained operational even during the occupation. Kuwait’s stability is important. Any instability in Kuwait will have potential repercussions on the oil price as well as the region’s stability. There is a danger that political instability coupled with developments in Egypt and Syria may prompt www.geopolitics.in
some regimes and groups to question the wisdom of democratisation. Kuwait has remained largely unaffected by the upheavals provoked by the Arab Spring. As Professor Abdullah Al Shayji of Kuwait University says, “Kuwait does not need the Arab Spring. The reasons for the Arab Spring not impacting Kuwait are not hard to find. What the Arab Spring is striving to achieve and what other Arab countries are fighting for, the Kuwaitis already have.” What is quite apparent is that the Kuwaitis are not questioning the legitimacy of the Al Sabah family. The demand is for reinventing Kuwaiti democracy, and not for forcing a fundamental change in the system. The problem lies in Kuwaiti polity being a mixture of various systems. It is neither a limited monarchy, nor a fullfledged parliamentary system. Kuwait also does not recognise political parties, though for all practical purposes, informal blocs function as political parties. Rather than forming the government, MPs, once elected, play a role of opposition to the government. Moreover, 80 per cent of the laws emanate from the government, not the parliament. The 2009 Parliament failed to convene as it was boycotted by its law makers since the opposition demanded its dissolution. It was then that the demand was made to form government by MPs to limit the role of the executive authority in parliament. Tension has also persisted because while the opposition is
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obsessed with grilling the ministers, the government has rejected most bills proposed by the opposition members. Professor Shayji contends that Kuwait needs to introduce constitutional reforms so as to move to another phase. What is worrying is the change in the political vocabulary and the vitiating political discourse. Some leaders have begun to even target the Emir’s family. It is imperative to break the deadlock. Kuwait needs to initiate economic reforms. Several infrastructural projects have been awaiting clearance. Some of the economic reforms have remained blocked for years. Analysts say that urgent investments are needed in the oil and gas sectors, as also in the infrastructure. Kuwait cannot afford to remain just a big bag of money and an oil rig. Opposition members have used parliament to settle scores rather than help pass laws that are needed for economic development. The issue of corruption too, cannot be brushed aside. Today the opposition is questioning the legitimacy of the new parliament. Tomorrow they may cross the red line and do things prejudicial to the long-term interests of the country. Mercifully, even the firebrand former opposition MP Musallam Al-Barrak admits that “the people are not against the ruler, they are against corruption and corrupt people”. However, the opposition is not without problems. It has made a wide range of demands. While the Islamists want greater say in the government, the liberals want more openness in general. The Islamists insist they are a home-grown group that doesn’t seek to topple the ruling system but wants a greater say in how the country is run. However, Kuwaiti liberal figure Abdullatif Al Duaiji believes that the liberals seem to have “lost their compass” by siding with the Islamists. All said, the world is changing fast and so is the Arab world. A familiar refrain among experts from the Arab world is that “Kuwait is the past, United Arab Emirates is the present and Qatar is the future.” The proud Kuwaitis would hate to hear that Kuwait is past its sell-by date. The Kuwaiti political system may have come under stress but it is by no means dysfunctional. As Professor Al-Shayiji explains, “What is unfolding in Kuwait today is not related to the forces of the Arab Spring; it is more related to the soft side of the Kuwait Spring.” The author is Director of Institute of Social Sciences, New Delhi.
January 2013
EGIERUNGonline/ Plambeck
The return of Abe
The LDP’s victory under the leadership of Shinzo Abe in the just-concluded elections in Japan bodes well for India-Japan relations, writes Rajaram Panda
A
fter three years in opposition, Japan’s conservative Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) stormed back to power in the parliamentary elections that was held on December 16, 2012. The victory means that former Prime Minister Abe Shinzo gets a second chance to lead the nation after a one-year stint in 20062007. He would be Japan’s seventh prime minister in six-and-a-half years. The LDP’s decisive two-thirds majority in the Lower House, along with the support of its coalition partner, the Komeito, www.geopolitics.in
will give Abe strength to take hard economic decisions at a time when Japan is under recession. Both the LDP and Komeito have closely convergent positions on the inflation target; dealing with the high yen; and spending up on infrastructure. Many will keenly observe how Abe deals with the war-renouncing Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution and the right to collective self-defence. The traditional interpretation by the government has been that the Constitution prohibits the exercise of the right to collective self-defence. There are fears that changes to Article 9
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and to the government’s interpretation of the right to collective self-defence would shatter the trust Japan has gained from the international community through its adherence to its constitutional no-war principle in the decades that followed the end of World War II. Both the LDP and the Japan Restoration Party are known for their hawkish attitude on constitutional issues. They call for revising the Constitution, including revision of the war-renouncing Article 9, and for exercising the right to collective self-defence. If the right to collective self-defence January 2013
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FRESH START: Newly-elected Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his wife Akie. The photograph is from our files and record the couple’s arrival at Rostock-Laage Airport for the G8 summit in June 2007
is allowed to be exercised, Japan would be legally able to take military action to defend a nation with close ties with Japan if that nation is militarily attacked by a third party. It may be noted that while a constitutional revision requires the support of two-thirds of the Diet members to initiate a national referendum on such a revision, changing the government’s interpretation of the Constitution related to the right to collective self-defence does not require such a procedure. The LDP and other parties calling for the exercise of that right can enact a bill that will change the government’s traditional interpretation. Exercising the right to collective self-defence could open the way for putting Japanese nationals in harm’s way by involving Japan in military conflict not directly affecting it. The LDP draft calling for revision of Article 9 to create a National Defence Force (NLF) states that the proposed NDF, under a specific law, can take part in international cooperative activities to help maintain peace and security in the international community—a concept that can be used to justify Japan’s participation in virtually any type of military mission abroad. Considered one of the more conservative figures in the increasingly conservative LDP, Abe, during his previous tenure as prime minister, pursued a nationalistic agenda pressing for more patriotic education and upgrading the defence agency to ministry status. Nuclear energy ended up not being a major election issue even though polls showed about 80 per cent of Japanese want to phase out nuclear power after meltdowns at the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant caused by a massive earthquake and tsunami in March 2011. But then the fact remains that being an island country unlike Germany, Japan cannot just get energy from other countries in a pinch and, therefore, has to rely on nuclear energy. As a result, the staunchly anti-nuclear Tomorrow Party, formed just three weeks ago before the elections, captured only nine seats. The LDP is the most pro-nuclear party, and has said Japan should decide over the next 10 years what sort of energy mix is best. www.geopolitics.in
Although the Fukushima nuclear cathat a landmark 1993 apology for sex tastrophe highlighted the inherent danger slavery needs revising. Abe is said to have of operating nuclear power plants in Jaexpressed regrets not visiting Yasukuni pan, Abe opposes the elimination of nuShrine, which enshrines Japan’s war dead, clear power. He says nuclear power plants including Class-A war criminals, during his whose operations are judged safe should term as Prime Minister. China and South be brought back online. But it needs to be Korea oppose such visits, saying they renoted that nuclear waste storage facilities flect Japan’s reluctance to fully atone for its at such plants are almost full and that no wartime atrocities. technology exists at present that can enWhat does the change in Japan politics sure the safe, essentially permanent stormean for India? Going by the experience of age of high-level radioactive waste. the past decade or so, the bonhomie beA government led by Abe could mean tween the two countries will only be deepa substantial shift in Japanese policy, not ened further and the political change will all of it comfortable for Japan’s neighbours be a booster rather than a dampener to this and friends. A segment of the electorate evolving partnership. The Abe regime will favoured the LDP’s vows to build a stronprovide further impetus to this process. All ger, more assertive country to answer intold, against the background of China’s ascreasing pressure from China and threats cendance of a rising power with global amof North Korean rocket launches. Abe bitions, Asia’s two largest democracies and has asserted that he will protect Japan’s second and third largest economies, re“territory and beautiful seas” amid a terrispectively—Japan and India—have found torial dispute with China over some uninstrategic convergence. This development habited islands in the East China Sea and is complemented by common state behavthis policy stance endeared with the Japaiour such as common liberal-democratic nese people. values, and the absence of any historical One of the new parties, the right-leangrievances unlike Japan’s neighbours such ing, populist Japan Restoration Party, won as China and South Korea. 54 seats. The party is led by the bombasThe China challenge is driving Intic nationalist ex-Tokyo Governor dia, Japan and the US to come Ishihara Shintaro and Osaka to a common platform. This Mayor Hashimoto Toru, development needs to be In 2006, Abe had both of who emerged as appreciated against the polarizing figures with background of the expredicted that Japan-India forceful leadership isting security alliance relations had the potential styles. Ishihara was relationship between the one who stirred Japan and the US and to overtake Japan-US and up the latest dispute the deepening straJapan-China ties. With with China over the tegic convergence of islands when he prointerests of India with this vision, the future of posed that the Tokyo Japan and the US, culIndia-Japan relations looks government buy them minating in the trilatfrom their private Japaeral dialogues between optimistic. nese owners and develop the three, of which three them. rounds have already taken It remains to be seen how place. Senior Japanese officials Abe will handle Japan’s China policy, briefed Indian and US officials about though he is talking tough towards China. the security dilemma that Japan confronts The LDP platform also calls for developing with China as territorial dispute over the fisheries and setting up a permanent outSenkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China post in the disputed islands, called SenSea that escalated to the level that has rung kakus by Japan and Daioyu by China—a alarm bells among strategists. The third move that would infuriate Beijing. During trilateral meeting explored the possibilities his first term as leader, Abe also insisted of working together in the region. The trithere was no proof Japan’s military had colateral has attracted criticism from China, erced Chinese, Korean and other women which has blamed Tokyo for spreading its into prostitution in military brothels duranxieties about Beijing’s rise among other ing Japan’s wartime aggression in Asia. He countries. later apologized but lately has suggested The three countries are also looking at
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January 2013
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OLD FRIENDSHIP: A file photo of Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh with Japanese PM Shinzo Abe after the signing of an agreement on Indo-Japan Strategic Partnership in Tokyo on Dec 15, 2006.
A friend of India Shinzo Abe has been the first Prime Minister of Japan who was born after the World War II. Therefore, he is least defensive about Japan’s past misdeeds in Korea and China. He is a proud nationalist. A student of Political Science at Seikei University and the University of Southern California, Abe is the son of former foreign minister Shintaro Abe, grandson of former Prime Minister Nobusuke Kishi (arrested as a suspected war criminal after World War II, but never charged) and grandnephew of former Prime Minister Eisaku Sato. This family background is undoubtedly Abe’s greatest strength, helping in building up his personal charisma. Highly influenced by his grandfather, former Prime Minister Nobusuke, who had fond memories of visiting India in 1957,
Abe was encouraged to widen Japan’s traditional conception of the region and create a “broader Asia” which included India. In 2006 as Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary, Abe had described Indo-Japanese relations as “the most important bilateral relationship in the world”. As Prime Minister Abe had visited India in 2007 and addressed the Parliament. He had then set out the new vision of “broader Asia” and told the Indian MPs that “Japan has undergone ‘The Discovery of india’, by which I mean we have rediscovered India as a partner that shares the same values and interests and also as a friend that will work alongside us to enrich the seas of freedom and prosperity, which will be open and transparent to all”. Abe had also come to India in September 2011, but this time as a leader of the
joining forces for economic development projects in Afghanistan, which is of strategic importance to both India and the US, while Japan may remain one of the largest donors in the post-2014 environment. India and the US are pooling their strengths in a trilateral format with Afghanistan to ensure it doesn’t descend into chaos again. The trilateral has now evolved into a deeper interaction where the three major nations exchange their strategic perceptions of the region. In the past months, India, Japan and the US have been working
together to develop trade and economic linkages in south-east Asia. Here, Myanmar plays a key role as all three countries have reformed their ties with the juntaruled nation. In 2006, Abe had predicted that JapanIndia relations had the potential to overtake Japan-US and Japan-China ties. With this vision, the future of India-Japan relations looks optimistic. Currently, both the countries are negotiating a civil nuclear deal. Though the Fukushima accident led Japan to reassess the future of its nuclear
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opposition LDP. During this visit he had addressed the Indian Council of World Affairs. In the speech, he had favoured greater interaction between Indian and Japanese navies, working closely with the US to secure the sea lanes of commerce and ensure a stable Asia. He said that with its plans of having a three aircraft carrier Navy, India can keep the Asian sea lines stable and such a step can assure Vietnamese, Americans, South Koreans “if not the Chinese.” Abe said that the Americans have been providing “safety and stability” to sea lanes of commerce since the 1950s but expressed concerns over the fact that the “hegemony may get skinny and its muscle weaker. In the meantime, let India and Japan work together with the Americans, so that there will be no strategic void.” Abe said if India and Japan worked “hand in hand, shoulder to shoulder, the Indonesians will join us, not to mention all other freedom loving nations. Let us work even more closely together with the US, Australia and other maritime democracies to invest in building a robust, open, liberal and safe and stable East Asia Summit-led Asia”. Pointing out that China will remain both an “opportunity and a risk” for a long time to come, he said the US is destined to become weaker in relative terms. “But let us not be confused and jump into the wrong bandwagon and choose a wrong partner. In America, we see the oldest democracy. In China, we see an autocracy, both the oldest and newest in the making as it is still in the making,” Abe said, adding, “There is no question which side we Japan and India should take.” Geopolitics Bureau
energy, Abe’s approach to restart reactors that are considered safe makes the prospect for the India-Japan nuclear deal good. Besides, the strategic component getting a boost, the economic content also likely to acquire a stronger spine. Maritime security and securing the sea lanes of communication to smooth maritime commerce is going to be another driver for deepening the bilateral ties. (The author is a Delhi-based specialist on Japan)
January 2013
EXCERPTS
1962
AND THE McMAHON SAGA Settled in India since 1964, the French born Claude Arpi has been keenly observing developments in China, particularly in Tibet, and their implications for India
Author: Claude Arpi Publishers: Lancer Pages: 559 Price: `895
Fifty years have passed since China entered NEFA and Ladakh. This event has so deeply traumatized India that the Sino-Indian conflict has remained a scar in the nation’s psyche, partly because we do not know what exactly happened. While it is today possible to get some hints of what took place from Indian official sources (the Official History of the 1962 War prepared by the Ministry of Defence and a number of White Papers published by the Ministry of External Affairs, but also from memoirs written by the main actors like Brig John Dalvi, Maj. www.geopolitics.in
Gen. Niranjan Prasad, Maj. Gen. DK Palit or Lt. Gen. B.M. Kaul as well as CIA, Russian and Chinese sources, but the main Indian report prepared by Lt. Gen. Henderson-Brooks and Brig. Prem Bhagat is unfonunately still the most secret document of the Indian Republic. Having lost hope that the famous document will one day be declassified, I have tried to guess: “What on earth has stopped the Government to declassify the Report?” Though portions of it were read out in the Parliament by the Defence Minister Y.B. Chavan in 1963, the gist seems to be missing. A book helps us to understand the background of the Henderson-Brooks Report. Between 1962 and 1965, R.D. Pradhan was the Private Secretary of Y.B. Chavan9 who took over as Defence Minister from the disgraced V.K Krishna Menon after the debacle of October 1962. Pradhan’s memoirs, give great insights on the reasoning of the then Defence Minister who ordered the report: “For Chavan the main challenge in the first years was to establish relationship of trust between himself and the Prime Minister. He succeeded in doing so by his deft-handling of the Henderson-Brooks’ Report of Inquiry into the NEFA reserves.” The Private Secretary elaborated on
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the Defence Minister’s sentiments during the following months: “During the conduct of the enquiry, Chavan was apprehensive that the committee may cast aspersions on the role of the Prime Minister or the Defence Minister.” Pradhan adds: “His [Chavan] main worry was to find ways to defend the government and at the same time to ensure that the morale of the armed forces was not further adversely affected. For that he repeatedly emphasized in the Parliament that that the enquiry was a fact-finding one and to ‘learn lessons’ for the future and it was not a ‘witch-hunt’ to identify and to punish the officers responsible for the debacle.” It is clear that the main objective of Chavan was to defend the government, in other words, ‘defend Nehru’ and the political coterie around him who were responsible for the death of nearly 2,000 Indian officers and jawans. Chavan’s Secretary concludes: “It was a tribute to his sagacity and political maturity that he performed his role to the full satisfaction of the Parliament and also earned the gratitude of the Prime Minister” He obviously earned Nehru’s gratitude because he managed to absolve him of any wrong even though the Prime Minister was the main culprit. In 2008, answering a question on the Report, Defence Minister A.K. AntJanuary 2013
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ony told the Indian Parliament that the Henderson-Brooks Report could not be made public because an internal study by the Indian Army had established that its contents “are not only extremely sensitive but are of current operational value.” At first sight it seems strange that this 49 year-old report is still of ‘operational value.’ Does the Minister mean reverse, operational value?” It is probably a manual of what should NOT be done in case of a conflict with China or any other country. All the more reason to study it! Were the officials who drafted the Minister’s reply aware of another report, the Official History of the Conflict with China (1962) prepared by the same Defence Ministry, detailing the famous ‘operations’ in 474 foolscap pages? Under the Right to Information Act, veteran journalist and former MP, Kuldip Nayar applied to Ministry of Defence on December 7, 2005, seeking the following information: “May I request you to make me available a copy of the Report by the Retired Lt. Gen Henderson-Brooks on the China-India War in 1962. This is now 43 years old and should have been formally available in the Archives of India, some 30 years after it was submitted to the Government of India.” The Respondent, the Ministry of Defence dragged its feet for months and tried to take refuge behind the Section 8 (1). The stand of the Defence Ministry was explicitly given during a hearing of the Commission on March 7, 2009: “It was submitted by Col. Raj Shukla that the report prepared by Lt. Gen. Henderson Brooks and Brig. Prem Bhagat was a part of internal review conducted on the orders of the then Chief of the Army Staff, Gen. [J.N.] Choudhary. Reports of internal review are not even submitted to Government. let alone placed in the public domain. Disclosure of this information will amount to disclosure of the army’s operational strategy in the NorthEast and the discussion on deployments has a direct bearing on the question of the demarcation of the Line of Actual Control between India and China. a live issue under examination between the two countries at present.” The fact that “reports of internal review are not even submitted to Government. let alone placed in the public domain”. is absolutely untrue. as long extracts were read in the Parliament by the www.geopolitics.in
Defence Minister. But it has a “direct bearing on the question of the demarcation of the Line of Actual Control” may give us a hint in which direction to look for an answer to our query. In a ‘decision notice’ dated March 19. 2010. the Central Information Commission said: “We have examined the report specifically in terms of its bearing on present national security. There is no doubt that the issue of the India-China Border particularly along the North East parts of India is still a live issue with ongoing negotiations between the two countries on this matter. The disclosure of information of which the Henderson Brooks report carries considerable detail on what precipitated the war of 1962 between India and China will seriously compromise both security and the relationship between India and China. Thus having a bearing both on internal and external security. We have examined the report from the point of view of severability u/s 10(1). For reasons that we consider unwise to discuss in this Decision Notice, this Division Bench agrees that no part of the report might at this stage be disclosed.” It seems a non-sense as large parts had already been disclosed by the Defence Minister himself as well as by Neville Maxwell, the author of India’s China War who had the ‘privilege’ to access a copy of the Report from which he abundantly quoted in his book. Looking for hints why the HendersonBrooks report has never been released, the following sentence gives some indications:” There is no doubt that the issue of the India-China Border particularly along the North East parts of India is still a live issue with ongoing negotiations between the two countries on this matter.” It is where one needs to look.
What the Chinese side says
Another clue is that China has always said that it is India which attacked first. According to Chinese historians who wrote the history of the 1962 conflict, a first key meeting was held in early October, probably on October 6 in Beijing. Defence Minister and Deputy CMC chairman, Lin Biao reported on the situation in the Tibet and the Xinjiang Military Regions. He said that the Indians continue to ‘advance’ and often open fire on Chinese outposts; ten Chinese personnel
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had been killed or wounded during the past few days. He assured the top Communist leadership that the Chinese forces strictly followed the principle of not firing first, but the situation in both sectors was fast worsening: the Indian Army had begun to concentrate troops and deploy artillery in both sectors. Further, the Chinese military intelligence had gathered that Indian forces were planning an attack on Thagla Ridge on 10 October. In Mao’s address to his colleagues, he seems to believe that India attacked first. Somehow, this Chinese belief is confirmed by Brig. John Dalvi who in the Introduction of his Himalayan Blunder writes: “On the night of 21st November 1962, I was woken up by the Chinese Major in charge of my solitary confinement with shouts of ‘good news—good news.’ He told me that the Sino-Indian War was over and that the Chinese Government had decided to withdraw from all the areas which they had overrun, in their lightning campaign. When I asked the reason for this decision he gave me this Peking [Beijing] inspired answer: “India and China have been friends for thousands of years and have never fought before. China does not want war. It is the reactionary (sic) Indian Government that was bent on war. So the Chinese counter-attacked in self-defence and liberated all our territories in NEFA and Ladakh, in just one month. Now we have decided to go back as we do not want to settle the border problem by force.” He added that “We have proved that you are no match for mighty China.” Though there was no question of the Indian Army ‘attacking China’ with no food, no clothes, no armament or ammunition supply, the Chinese perceived the situation differently. Were they just looking for a pretext? Probably, but what was this pretext?
Why did China really believe that India attacked?
The answer is to be found in the books written by the Army officers who have been the unwilling actors in the ‘blunder,’ namely Maj. Gen. Niranjan Prasad, the GOC of 4 Infantry Division, Brig. John Dalvi, the Commander of 7 Infantry Brigade and Brig. D.K Palit, Director of Military Operations at the Army Headquarters in Delhi. January 2013
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CHANGING WARS
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re India and Pakistan at war? ‘Yes’ is my answer, in the wake of the “flop” visit of Pakistan’s Interior Minister Rahman Malik to India. It all depends on how one defines war. Conventionally speaking, wars occur when military forces of a country fight against their counterparts of another country. Here the emphasis is on large-scale force-on-force violence. But the world is experiencing newer forms of war. The nature of warfare is rapidly changing. In fact, there have been cases where, because of the technological and organisational innovations over the last few decades, the identity of the warring parties is difficult to establish. The ‘cyber war’ is a case in point. Coming to India and Pakistan, I think two other varieties of war are pertinent. In the case of Pakistan, I will argue that it has imposed a ‘hybrid war’ on India. Our response to this, particularly under the rule of the present United Progressive Alliance led by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, has been the ‘war amongst the people’, aimed at winning over the hearts of the Pakistanis. Let me explain. ‘Hybrid war’, a term popularised by the American strategic analyst Frank Hoffman, means multiple types of warfare being used simultaneously Prakash by the adversary. Here, it will engage in irregular warfare, often taking the help of the non-state actors in its territory, apart from preparing for the conventional war to serve its ends. And when one talks of the irregular war, it involves terrorist mercenaries, deadly criminals, drugtraffickers and insurgents etc. in the enemy country. The idea here is to unleash indiscriminate violence (often communal), coercion and criminal disorder. At the strategic levels, hybrid wars ensure that there is a clear linkage between the regular and irregular (the so-called non-state actors); in fact, in many a case the distinction between them gets blurred. They are operationally integrated and tactically fused. In fact, under hybrid war, the warfare becomes quite unrestricted. Multiple means—military but more non-military—are used against the enemy. Hacking into websites, targeting financial institutions, terrorism, using the media, and conducting urban warfare are among the methods championed. There are no rules or norms of war; in fact nothing is forbidden. These elements of hybrid war perfectly match Pakistan’s policies towards India. No wonder Malik did not find any role of Hafiz Saeed in the 26/11 Mumbai terror attacks. He did not find anything wrong in Saeed’s relentless hate-speeches against India. He did not acknowledge the presence of Indian fugitives on Pakistani soil. He even went to the extent of ridiculing India’s complaint of ill-treatment of Indian prisoners of war in Pakistan, flouting the globally recognised norms. He brushed aside the agony of Captain Saurabh Kalia’s father who received his son’s body, mutilated and with all the organs cut after 20 days of the Kargil war. Pakistan continues to use terrorism as an instrument of
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state policy against India. And it seems that the UPA government is now reconciled to live with this factor. Systematically, the Manmohan Singh government has de-hyphenated terrorism from diplomacy with Pakistan. As a result, without Pakistan’s commitment to deny the anti-India forces from using its territory and resources, Indian officials and ministers have been meeting their Pakistani counterparts. Kashmir’s separatist leaders are being allowed to visit Pakistan and meet its officials freely, though no Indian authority is ever allowed to interact with people from Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. India has eased the travel norms of Pakistani people, particularly journalists, academicians, artist and businessmen by liberalizing the visa regime. This subtle change in India’s approach is also warfare, “War amongst the People”. Advocated by one of Britain’s thinking soldiers, former chief of staff of the British Army Rupert Smith, this “is war amongst the people, where the strategic objective is to win the hearts and minds, and the battle is for the people’s will, rather than the destruction of an opponent’s forces”. With the belief that today the use of force is less a direct means to an end and more of a catalyst and that conflicts are now just Nanda as much political as military, General Smith argues that force should be used, but only used when there is a clear understanding of the nature of the conflict and a well-conceived strategy for achieving a goal. In his book, The Utility of Force, General Smith contends that “the nature of our operations today, and in the future, is fundamentally of a different nature to those of the past, for which our institutions have grown up and developed to conduct successfully. I call this new form, or model, of war amongst the people, in contrast to that past model. The essential difference is that military force is no longer used to decide the matter, but it is being used to create a condition in which the strategic result is achieved by other means, the strategic object being to alter the opponent’s intentions rather than to destroy him.” Viewed thus, the present government in India seems to be following General Smith’s model of war by trying to either capture the minds of the Pakistani people or to create those conditions through which its desired results in Pakistan might be found by other means. Only time will prove whether this form of combat is the proper response to Pakistan’s hybrid war on India. But I have my doubts. Because, all told, the number of conventional wars has increased in various parts of the world in recent years. If researchers at the Uppsala Data Programme are to be believed, the number of armed conflicts in the world increased from 31 in 2010 to 37 in 2011, an almost 20 per cent rise and the largest increase between any two years since 1990. What is, therefore, needed is a flexible approach towards Pakistan, preparing for the worst.
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prakashnanda@newsline.in
January 2013