a s i a’ s
strategic
triangle
geopolitics Vol IV, Issue II, JULY 2013 n `100
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defence n diplomacy n security
assessing india’s air lift capabilities overcoming the kudankulam imbroglio modernising the central armed police forces on-the-spot report from paris air show
undersea deterrent
With the development of missiles carrying nuclear weapons that are to be fitted in INS–Arihant, India has completed its most credible leg of the nuclear triad
Boeing recently delivered to India the first P-8I long-range multi-mission maritime aircraft, on-schedule and on-budget. This new aircraft provides advanced capability to help safeguard the nation’s waters and borders for decades to come. We’re proud to salute the Indian Navy on this important milestone — a testament to our enduring partnership with India.
Bhadrai sCommi t t edt oRedef i neGround Handl i ngServi cesatI ndi anAi rport s Enj oywor l dcl as sgr oundhandl i ngs er vi cesats evenmaj orai r por t s . Bhadr aens ur es100% ont i meper f or mancewi t hi t swel l t r ai ned manpowerandS t at eofAr twor l dcl as sGr oundS uppor tEqui pment s .
Chennai l kol kat t a
l T r i vandr um
YourPar t nerongr ound
l Cal ci cut l Coi mbat or e
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Bhadr aI nt e r nat i onalI ndi aLt d. 42RaniJhans iRoad,Ne wDe l hi-1 1 0055 Phone:+91( 0)1 142534600 Fax:+91( 0)1 142534603 Formor ede t ai l s ,v i s i t:www. bhadr a. i n
Cover Story
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CONTENTS
nuclear triad wikipedia
While the concept of triad—nuclear retaliation from ground, air and sea—has been put in shape for a credible nuclear deterrence, India should give more emphasis on its submarine— based platforms.
panorAma (P8)
pl navy
wordpress.com
Perspective (P14)
the china factor
CONTROVERSIAL SITE
The Kudankulam Standoff has created several problems for the government as it cannot make it operational without resolving the public protests.
China’s strong foothold around the Indian Sub-continent has been surely a cause of worry for India and its neighbours.
DefBiz (P23)
DefBiz (P28)
DefBiz (P42)
LATEST INDUCTIONS
UNDER PROGRESS
NEW PROPOSALS
With the entry of first Boeing C-17 Globemaster III and six Lockheed Martin C-130 J Hercules aircraft into the IAF, India has now the largest strategic airlift capability in Asia.
India has decided to upgrade its main battle tank T-90 and is planning to induct another 1,650 of these tanks from Russia, as these tanks form the backbone of the Indian Army.
JIM DOLAN, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Overwatch Geospatial Solutions talks about providing intelligence requirements to the Indian security agencies.
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July 2013
FRIENDS OR FOEs? (P68) How well India, China and Japan can control their disputes and not allow to derail the relationship will determine their individual and collective growth.
Irandefence
ADFMEDIA
wikipedia
Hemat rawat
DEPENDING ON UAVs (p58) At the moment, the Paramilitary forces are overwhelmingly dependent on Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) Heron UAVs of Israeli origin.
THINKING ALIKE (P72) The paradigm shift in strategic thinking of Australia towards the Indian Ocean with its ‘Look West’ policy has been complimented by India’s ‘Look East’ policy.
FOCUS (P18)
THREATENING REGIME (p77) The intervention of Israel in the Syrian civil war may expand the Syrian theatre to include Russia and Western nations, further destabilising the region.
Editor-in-Chief
K SRINIVASAN Editor
PRAKASH NANDA Managing Editor
TIRTHANKAR GHOSH Consulting Editor
SAURAV JHA Senior Proof Reader VENUGOPALAN K K Correspondents
trishit rai, naveed anjum Chief Visualiser
AJAY NEGI Designers
deepoceanmining
mohit kansal, NAGENDer DUBEY ARTWORKS Photo Editor
H C TIWARI Staff Photographer
HEMANT RAWAT
HIDDEN RESOURCES
Director (Corporate Affairs)
RAJIV SINGH
In the context of deep seabed mining, the scale of investments, infrastructure and returns are of such magnitude that very less interest has been generated towards it.
Diplomacy (P75)
CLAIMING BACK Regaining Indian sovereignty over the Katchatheevu island, which is governed by Sri Lanka will be a tough job. Cover Design: Ajay Negi The total number of pages in this issue is 80+4
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Design Consultant
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Director (Marketing)
RAKESH GERA
Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for newseye media Pvt. Ltd. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in
July 2013
The cover story, Men and Machines (GEOPOLITICS, June 2013), about the modernisation of the Indian Army was truly a well researched one and reflected all aspects. The introduction said it all: “Well trained, better equipped and motivated soldier can strike fear in the enemy’s mind, which can lead to victory.” We have the second largest standing army in the world but still lack in equipment meant for special mission purposes. Modernising the army should be of utmost importance for the Ministry of Defence, as the army plays an important role in defending the boundaries of our nation. Thanks to our penchant for sensationalisation, we tend to focus more on weapons and less on the men who dedicate their lives for the country, because weapon footage is more awe-inspiring and provides an opportunity for scandals in their procurement process. Of course, weapons are very important but to win wars, it is the men who use them. It is a
necessity to equip our soldiers with the latest weapons and gadgets. Often, I feel that the focus of our defence planners and DRDO is on the weapon systems, which is done at the cost of the infantry soldier and this negligence has resulted in our single defeat at the hands of the Chinese in 1962. The best example can be the incursion in the Despang bulge of the Daulat Beg Oldie sec-
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LETTERS
letters to editor tor in Ladakh by 40-50 Chinese border guards. The handful of Chinese infantrymen made our nation of 1.3 billion look helpless for more than 20 days despite our Su-30MKI, Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS) and modest nuclear deterrent. When they retreated, the nation heaved a sigh of relief. Such is the power of the infantry which is missing in the Indian context.
The IAF has to make its stand clear to these vendors—what it needs and how it needs—or else it might end up acquiring the wrong platforms wasting several billions of the general public’s money. As the article suggests, affordability and price
Shardool Prakash, Bengaluru
India Eyes Intelligence System Platforms (Geopolitics, June 2013 issue) was interesting to read. As the story highlights, in recent years, the Indian Air Force (IAF), as part of its ‘transformation’, has been progressively modifying its fleet of special mission aircraft beside the usual fighter and transport carriers. After purchasing mid-air refuellers and airborne early warning aircraft, the IAF is now quite keen to enhance its Electronic Warfare (EW) capabilities by acquiring more specialised aircraft in such roles. In the race to supply such aircraft, we have Brazil’s Embraer and Israel’s IAI.
Apropos the story, Enhancing Sea-Worthiness (Geopolitics, June 2013). The idea behind it is totally convincing. It seems great to see that India is taking a stand towards building a blue water navy. According to the article, the Indian Navy (IN) is looking to push further into the southern Indian Ocean besides being ready to operate for a reasonable length of time even in theatres such as the Mediterranean and the South China Sea. For this, the IN has issued a Request For Proposals (RFPs) for the construction of five new Fleet Support Ships (FSS) for its fleet. In today’s scenar-
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range will certainly be a key factor in determining the success of the tender, given that previous tenders have already been turned down by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) on these grounds. Rajeev Kapoor, Indore
io, it is necessary for India to incorporate multi-purpose support vessels besides aircraft carriers and other warships. To counter the growing threat of China in the South China Sea region, it is necessary for India to build a blue water navy which will be capable of handling any foreign threats. Naamdhari Prasad Dubey, Lucknow All correspondence may be addressed to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11, Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013. Or mail to: geopolitics@newsline.in
July 2013
China’s offence v/s India’s defence India and China are the two big heavy weights of Asia-Pacific. With both the countries growing big in international stature, there is a race of countering one another through strategic ways. China’s strong foothold around the Indian Subcontinent has been significantly getting impetus that is surely a cause of worry for India.
Chinese presence in Sudan
Port of Chabahar, Iran
Chinese state-owned companies are also responsible for the construction of a railway link between Khartoum, the capital of Sudan, and Port Sudan, the country’s major port on the Red Sea. Although Sudanese oil makes up only a fraction of total Chinese imports, China has invested over $10 billion in infrastructure projects in the country to take advantage of its substantial oil reserves.
The port was partially built by India in the 1990s to provide access to Afghanistan and Central Asia, by passing Pakistan. India has again shown interest in the Iranian Port to counter the growing threat of China from the recently built Gwadar Port.
IRAN
C
Compiled BY: TRISHIT RAI & naveed anjum INFO GRAPHIC: AJAY NEGI
hina’s ‘String of Pearls Policy’ has made an inroad deep into the Indian Ocean challenging the Indian Navy presence in the region. India on the other hand, has made a considerable military and economically beneficial presence in the Indian Ocean Rim (IOR), which includes the islands of Mauritius, Maldives, Seychelles and Madagascar along with South Africa, Tanzania and Mozambique. While the Chinese influence in the region and its ‘String of Pearl Policy’ is providing financial support for the ports like Gwadar in Pakistan, Chittagong in Bangladesh, Hambantota in Sri Lanka and Sittwe in Mayanmar, covering the rim of India. Chinese cheque book diplomacy is also working in its favour in small African states especially in Sudan and Zimbabwe.
OMAN SUDAN
SOMALIA
Chinese Presence in Indian Ocean Chinese possessions in the Indian Ocean consist primarily of commercial ports owned and operated by Chinese firms, as well as resupply stations operating in agreement with the Chinese central government. The two largest projects consist of a Chinese-financed commercial shipping center in Hambantota, Sri Lanka and a Chinese-controlled deep-water port near the mouth of the Persian Gulf in Gwadar, Pakistan. Both sites have raised fear and concern for India as they are located just off its coast.
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YEMEN
SEYCHELLES Indian and Chinese presence in Seychelles The Seychelles government in November 2011 offered China to establish a naval base.In Indian context, Seychelles requested Indian Navy to carry out anti piracy operations in her waters which has made India-Seychelles relations stronger. Couple of Indian warships are stationed at Seychelles.
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String of Pearls Indian Military & Naval Base Chinese Military & July 2013 Naval Base
PAKISTAN
PANORAMA Gwadar Port, Pakistan
Ports in Bangladesh and Myanmar
The Paracel Islands, Philippines
For both Pakistan and China, the Gwadar port offers a number of key benefits. For Pakistan, the Gwadar port is seen as an alternative in case of an Indian blockade of the port of Karachi, which currently handles 90% of Pakistani seaborne trade. For the Chinese, which has funded the majority of the construction, Gwadar represents an important strategic foothold, situated just 240 miles from the Strait of Hormuz.
Similar port construction projects are also underway in Bangladesh and Myanmar. The Chinese government has financed a container shipping facility in Chittagong, Bangladesh, which is widely identified as a pearl. However, despite reports of Chittagong’s potential military role for the Chinese, the Bangladeshi government has insisted that the port is of an entirely commercial nature and has declared it, as off limits for military vessels.
Interest in the region has historically been attributed to the rich fishing and mineral resources known to exist there. However, the island can also be used as air and sea bases for intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance activities and can provide a safe haven for Chinese ballistic missile submarines and potential aircraft carrier battle groups. The Chinese naval base on Hainan Island is generally considered the first of the pearls or potential pearls.
INDIA
CHINA
THILAND
PHILIPPINES
Isthmus of Kra project, Thailand
SRI LANKA
In 2005, an internal report prepared for the U.S. Secretary of Defence Donald Rumsfeld was leaked to ‘The Washington Times’, spelling out China’s strategy of underwriting construction of the canal across the Kra Isthmus with Chinese port facilities and refineries.
Chinese military base in the Maldives
Chinese listening post in Sri Lanka
Port Blair and Car Nicobar Island, India
Strategists have also identified, Marao Atoll, in the Maldives, as a potential Chinese military base. Report suggests that China plans to construct a submarine base in Marao. However, to date there is no evidence that suggests a Chinese military presence of any www.geopolitics.in kind in the Maldives.
Chinese investment in Hambantota, and Sri Lanka’s dialogue partner status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), is seen by some Indian analysts as reflective of a wider encirclement strategy on the part of the Chinese.
The Andaman and Nicobar Command of the Indian Armed Forces was created in 2001 to safeguard India’s strategic interests in Southeast Asia and the Strait of Malacca. In 2013, the navy proposed to station a nuclear submarine and a landing deck platJuly 2013 form at the islands in the future.
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July 2013
photographs mod
SPOTLIGHT
The Indian military has proved once again that it always can be counted upon to deliver the goods—at any place at any time under any circumstance. Thousands of India’s military and air force personnel did their best in rescue and relief operations in the areas of Uttarakhand devastated by the floods, which, in turn, were triggered by unusually early and heavy monsoon. Thousands of India’s soldiers and airmen did not care for heir lives while rescuing people in
the inundated villages and towns, and swept away vast tracts of farmland. With roads and bridges that collapsed due to huge landslides, the Military’s air effort, particularly helicopters used for various tasks like movement of civilians in difficult areas and disaster relief will be remembered in golden letters. In fact, the massive flood relief operations saw the Indian Air Force and Army Aviation corps deployed in the greatest strength since the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean.
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July 2013
SPOTLIGHT
The Indian Air Force launched its biggest ever helicopter based rescue operation to provide succor to the stranded people in flood and rain-hit Uttarakhand. Close to 30 choppers made sorties day in and day out. The C130 J aircraft undertook a weather recce mission in the morning based on which the IAF helicopters started operation in Harsil Sector and another one carried fuel. Six AN- 32 sorties airlifted bridging equipment, 50 Para troops with 2000kg load, fuel barrels and two IAF Disaster Management Communication Vehicles. In a sense, the Uttarakhand flood saw the C-130J’s first real trial by fire over Indian terrain. The IAF also used the Russian Mi-26.
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July 2013
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perspective
The Kudankulam Sta The nuclear establishment in the country has to go an extra mile to convert the Kudankulam challenge into an opportunity by wiping out all the fears over its safety created by the antinuclear fundamentalists and by winning back public confidence, says Sitakanta Mishra
A
lthough the construction of Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant (KKNPP) is claimed to have been completed up to 99 per cent, the commissioning of the first unit has been deferred several times since 2009. Inconsiderate sitting, compromised safety arrangements and use of sub-standard components have led to judicial intervention by the apex court. Moreover, the delay in commissioning is alleged to be an ‘Indo-Russian cover-up
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plan’ due to some serious technical problems that the plant is facing. The project is a prolonged hostage and one may wonder what the fate of such a massive investment would be. There have been cases in Australia and USA where completed reactors have been halted due to public opposition. Will India join such a list?
The zigzag path
The first of the two 1,000 MW nuclear power plants under construction for the
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last one decade at Kudankulam, near Idinthakarai village of Tirunelveli district (Tamil Nadu), was due to become operational before the end of 2012. However, the Tamil Nadu Cabinet passed a resolution in September 2011 to suspend all work; Chief Minister Jayalalithaa claimed to have been compelled to do so in response to the popular opposition. Subsequently, the matter reached the Supreme Court which reserved its verdict till May 2013. On May 6, the apex court cleared
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nuclear energy corporation, Rosatom) for having sourced cheap sub-standard steel for manufacturing components that were used in nuclear installations in Russia and other countries, including India. As a result, the NPCIL has extended the commissioning of the plant by mid-2013. How soon the plant will start production is a matter of conjecture, but the indefinite delay in commissioning has certainly kept the tax-payers money at bay. According to S A Bharadwaj, former Director (Technical), NPCIL, the plant is already facing a loss of ` five crore per day owing to the delays. So far, `13,000 crore has been spent on two plants and `1,000 crore has been incurred for maintenance of the plant in view of the commissioning delays. Who can be held accountable for the tax payers’ money that has been invested but is not serving any purpose?
Genesis of the project
ndoff un-productive: The Kudankulam Nuclear Power Plant is waiting to be commissioned, which has been halted due to mass protests
the decks for the commissioning of the plant by stating that “we have to balance ‘economic scientific benefits’ with that of ‘minor radiological detriments’”. However, a fresh petition has been filed by the state, demanding the Centre not to commission the plant mainly owing to two major revelations: First, the dysfunctional four safety valves in the core catcher of the reactor; and, second, the arrest of the procurement director of ZioPodolsk (a company owned by Russia’s
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The genesis of KKNPP goes back to the era of Indo-Soviet strategic partnership -- as early as 1979—when Morarji Desai was the Prime Minister of India. During that time, the west was critical about India’s first nuclear test conducted in 1974. In November 1988, an Inter-Governmental Agreement on the nuclear power plant was signed by the then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi and Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev. The project remained in limbo for a decade due to the disintegration of Soviet Union. There were also objections from the United States, on the grounds that the agreement did not meet the 1992 guidelines of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Construction of the plant began only in September 2001 and the cost was estimated to be US$ 3 billion (`16,900 crore approx). Russia is also known to have extended a credit of US $ 2.6 billion (`15,000 crore approx)to India. In 2008, negotiations for building four additional reactors at the site began which would bring the total capacity of the power plant to 6800MW or 6.8 GW. When completed it would become the largest nuclear power generation complex in India, producing a cumulative 2 GW of electric power. In the first phase, two 1 GW reactors of the VVER-1000 model were constructed by the NPCIL and Atomstroyexport. Both units were water-cooled, watermoderated power reactors and the first one was scheduled to start operations in
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December 2009 and the second one was scheduled for March 2010. Subsequently, the official projections had put Unit 1 into operations in early 2010 and then it was scheduled for May 2012, and Unit 2 to go in July 2012, but till May 2013, the first unit had not commenced even though the Supreme Court removed its reservations in response to the public petitions. The second unit is now expected to be commissioned by March 2014.
Fears don’t match facts
Certainly, public fears on nuclear issues are not unfounded. They are legitimate fears and they have to be addressed. After all, it is public money that has been spent on these projects. Unfortunately, deliberate misinformation is conveyed at times, and popular opposition is ‘manufactured’. On the other hand, it is also very difficult to make people understand a complex subject like nuclear technology. At times, it is seen that they ask questions, but are not able to follow the answers which professionals provide. Therefore, the gap between public misunderstanding and the scientific community’s inability to explain is being utilised to the full extent by vested interests. In the early years, activists like Anton Goma and Y David of the Anti Nuclear Confederation (ANC) organised rallies when the decision for the Kudankulam project was first mooted but barely made any impact on the villagers. Even, in 1988, a cycle rally in Kudankulam organised by ANC turned violent, when villagers pelted stones at the protestors and chased them away. All these years, the plant workers and the neighbouring villagers have been ‘living like a family and interacting regularly’. The scientific community has reached out to the villagers on several occasions, explaining the safety features of the Kudankulam nuclear power project and about nuclear power, in general. What then made the villagers—around 7,500 fishermen, mainly Christians—suddenly doubt the project when it is about to resume operations? It is equally surprising, how S P Udayakumar, the protest leader with a PhD degree from USA, has stepped up the pace of protests. Incidentally, until a few months ago, Udayakumar believed that nuclear plants would bring prosperity to the villagers. One can understand that the safety
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lack of knowledge: Misunderstanding about the nuclear energy has led to several protests across the world
ti-nuclear ideology in general.
Contemporary allegations
concerns of the protesters could be a spillover effect of the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. If safety and security of the plant in the wake of the natural disaster is the prime concern of the local population, they have the right to question and understand the specific safety arrangements at the plant. The public, instead of being blindly guided by the ‘nuclear fundamentalists’ (who oppose anything nuclear) must listen to the authorities and should give them a chance to explain the inbuilt safety arrangements. Moreover, the villagers might have been instigated not to accept an external cost of the project which would bring them insufficient benefits. Apprehensions have been raised about how the nuclear plant would destroy their livelihood as it could harm the marine life. They should be made aware that around Kalpakkam and Tarapur the local population is able to continue fishing without hindrance—rather the livelihood of the surrounding population has improved. It must be understood, that in a democracy, individual security does not contradict with the national security. However, to avoid such undesired conflict, a process of social testing should be incorporated before the start of any mega project. In pursuit of that, a permanent Public Acceptance Committee can be constituted to implement a nationwide long-term public acceptance programme, as South Korea does. The VVER-1000 nuclear reactors at Kudankulam are of third generation design, endowed with many advanced safety features unlike the Fukushima reactors that were first generation. Four heat exchanger systems are embedded into the reactors,
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though one such system is adequate. The level of the diesel generators, switchgear and controls are at adequate height. The ‘core catcher’ system—a matrix containing a large amount of neutron-absorbing substances like boron—will absorb the molten nuclear fuel, preventing a nuclear chain reaction in an event of an extreme emergency. Those who apprehend seismic threat must be aware that the plant is situated in an area that falls in Zone-II seismic category where seismic activity is minimal. The strongest earthquake around this area was the Coimbatore earthquake of February 8, 1900, which is 300kms away from the Kudankulam site. The nearest epicentre of recorded earthquake is located near Thiruvanandapuram, which is situated at a distance of 88 kms northnorth-west of the Kudankulam site. The nearest seismic fault lines are the Sunda Arc which is 1,300 km away and the Chagos Ridge fault line which is 1,500 kms away. In case of any seismic activity, the wave level reaching Indian shores would be very small. For example, the water level experienced at the site during the December 26, 2004 tsunami, triggered by an earthquake of 9.2 magnitude at Sumatra was only about 2.2 metres above sea level. This shows that that the fears raised is just a perception. As a result their behaviour raises imaginary risks all by themselves. Therefore, one gets an impression that the project is not just a matter of safety, security, and local opposition; rather, it vindicates a complex network of forces at work to see the plant in disarray to satisfy respective vested interests, starting from the state political spectrum, individual disgruntlement, foreign hands, to the an-
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First, the arrest of Sergei Shutov, the ZioPodolsk, machine building plant’s procurement director, for buying low quality raw materials that were used in reactors built by Russia in India, Bulgaria, Iran, China, has led to new protests and protesters are demanding a thorough and fresh investigation on the quality of all the components used to build the reactors. It is alleged that the DAE, AEC, NPCIL, AERB, and the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) knew about all the developments. Second, on April 19, 2013, AERB in a statement revealed that four valves were ‘deficient’ in a series of tests conducted ahead of starting the reactor. The AERB subsequently brought out a clarification saying “… several thousand components are installed in a NPP and as is normal for all complex engineering systems, occasional variation in their performances during commissioning trials is expected. The intent of such commissioning trials is to identify non-conformances, if any, and take corrective actions”. According to the clarification, the performance of the valves is evaluated under operating conditions to ascertain their performance as per the design intent. These four valves have since been replaced and the performance reports are under review by the board. The AERB reiterated that the Kudankulam nuclear power plant safety was reinforced with a close scrutiny of performance of the components and after taking corrective actions, as intended in the commissioning process prior to operation of the plant. However, it is vehemently criticised that the clarification by AERB “underplays the gravity of the entire situation”. The valves are ‘special check valves’, and are crucial to the long-term core-cooling under severe accident conditions, including a total plant blackout. Rather, it shows that no adequate testing of these valves was done in Russia before they were installed in KKNPP. This point, however focuses on the integrity of the multi-tier quality control programme under which NPCIL claimed that an inspection team of theirs, stationed in the Russian factory,
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had witnessed and signed off this testing.
Judicial pragmatism
“The AERB, NPCIL, MoEF and TNPCB would oversee each and every aspect of the matter, including the safety of the plant, impact on environment, quality of various components and systems in the plant before commissioning of the plant. A report to that effect has to be filed before the Court before commissioning of the plant.” Unfortunately, many learned critics are in disagreement with this pronouncement. Praful Bidwai, views “the judgement as a string of factual anomalies, logical contradictions and ethical misconceptions”. These seem nothing but “anti-nuclear fundamentalism.”
Beside the state governments, the judiciary seems to be playing a determinant role in influencing the contours of nuclear projects in India. So far, nuclear issues have been in the exclusive sphere of the Union government. Both the state and the apex court at different occasions have examined and directed the course of the project. The Madras High Court order in August 2012 had asked the AERB to ensure that necessary safeguards were complied with, before giving the go-ahead for loading of the fuel in the plant. Will India join the list? Even the Madras High Court dismissed many bizarre petitions relating Two probable scenarios could be deduced to the plant. On August 11, 2012, a bench from the current impasse. First, as the Supreme Court has cleared the deck, by igdismissed a writ petition challenging an noring the protesters baseless concerns, order passed by Tirunelveli Collector, proclaiming exigency within a range of seven the NPCIL can commission the plant with kilometres from the Kudankulam strengthened security arrangements. However, without nuclear power plant in wholehearted support Tirunelveli. Justice K ChanIn very few dru, also dismissed anof, and nod from the other writ petition filed State government, it countries, the antiby a private organisawould be foolhardy nuclear activists have tion, challenging the for the nuclear establishment to go Valliyoor Deputy Sufully succeeded but not perintendent of Poon stream unilaterally. Therefore, the lice’s refusal to grant in America, France, Central Governpermission to the Britain, South Africa, ment’s equation and outfit for conducting a public meeting rapport with JayBrazil, Russia, South lalithaa’s Government against the nuclear Korea, Sweden... in Tamil Nadu, would power plant. determine the length In August, 2012, the and direction of the imMadras High Court had depasse. Second, if the technolivered its judgment on a set of logical allegations are true and the writ petitions. Its 281-page judgment state government does not back up, the gave some important directives. Unsatisfied with this judgment, the petitioners plant may not see the light of the day in filed a Special Leave Petition (SLP) in the the near future leading to abandonment Supreme Court on September 11, 2012, of the project finally. This assumption is seeking an injunction on NPCIL from inibased on the fact that a fresh technological scrutiny and replacement of the faulty tiating further pre-commissioning activities. The final judgment was reserved unequipment would cost more money and til May 6, 2013, when it cleared the legal time leading to further cost overruns. cloud by saying that the “reactors cannot The first assumption, of course, is be held hostage to apprehensions”. most likely but with some caveats. It is Two particular directives of the Court probable that the scientific establishment are of utmost importance: (1) “The plant has taken serious note of the faulty equipment issue and has been working overshould not be made operational unless AERB, NPCIL, DAE accord gives finight to clear the doubts. However, withnal clearance for commissioning of the out clarifying the details of the equipment plant ensuring the quality of various supplied by the Russian firm, their current components and systems, because their status in the plant, and how they are prepared to face unforeseen contingencies if reliability is of vital importance;” and (2)
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they arise, the nuclear establishment will not be able to douse local resentment and commission unilaterally. In an extreme case, the second assumption may prove true. There have been instances in this regard. The Long Island Lighting Company of New York gave up trying to obtain a license for its completed $5.5 billion (`31,000 crore approx) Shoreham Nuclear Power Plant in 1989. There was a time when any utility, that announced plans to build a new nuclear reactor in USA saw its stock dumped. In several other countries commissioning of nuclear plants, plan for new plants, have been halted primarily due to severe public opposition. However, in very few countries, the anti-nuclear activists have fully succeeded but not in America, France, Britain, South Africa, Brazil, Russia, South Korea, Sweden, China or Canada. It is expected that they will not prevail in Japan either. Germany is a ‘dramatic exception’. And, India will not join this list whatsoever. First, it may be a mistake to interpret resistance to the new plant. Rather it may be more of a protest for ‘not being in my backyard’. Second, India’s nuclear safety track record is impeccable—no major accident comparable to those in the US, former USSR, or Japan that moulded public temperament towards nuclear matters, has ever happened in India. Over the years, India’s nuclear establishment has become more cautious and skilled by drawing lessons from disasters that have taken place elsewhere and has adopted global best practices. According to the IAEA Nuclear Technology Review 2009, the Public Acceptance Index (PAI) of nuclear energy in India had grown from around 60 per cent in 2005 to around 90 per cent during 2008 and ranked the highest in the world. By maintaining a strong nuclear safety and security culture, and transparency, India would go a long way to nurture nuclear technology with increasing social acceptance for it. The nuclear establishment has to go the extra mile to convert the Kudankulam challenge into an opportunity, to wipe out the public stigma keeping in mind that the technological controversies are dynamic social processes and need to be dealt with delicately. The author is a Research Fellow at the Centre for Air Power Studies, New Delhi
July 2013
Nodules on the Seabed
Polymetallic nodules
Manganknolle
Manganese
Deep Seabed Mining Polymetallic Nodules or a Recipe for Friction
The cooperative impulse to security, which would serve to stabilise the seabed regime, through joint restraint and enforced regulation, is weak. As China’s power and ambitions grow, the differences and points of conflict with India and indeed the other major stakeholders will mount. The exploitation of deep seabed resources is one such point, writes Vijay Shankar
I
n assessing the causes of conflict, economics as a causative principle has long been commonly sensed, but it was Marxian thought that gave it principal consideration. The classic archetype ran the following course: A capitalist, single or a group would invest in an economic backwater or a remote region with the intention either to create markets for surpluses or to corner valuable raw materials; and when foreign competition was encountered they would induce their governments to intervene diplomatically which would in turn sow the seeds for military confrontation. The problem with this simplistic pattern was that it never satisfactorily answered the question why would governments want to be so intensely associated with the investor? However an inversion of this model
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may expose a more plausible basis. The Yalu River conflict of 1904 between Russia and Japan was an intriguing dispute that underscores what is said to be the strategic ‘Inversion’ theory. Russia, through a group of private investors set up an economic enterprise in Manchuria. The venture took the form of exploitation of a vast timber concession along the Yalu and Tumen Rivers on the border between Manchuria and then undivided Korea; earlier in 1896, a grateful Korean emperor who had been given sanctuary in the Russian legation at Seoul, proffered the dispensation to Russian business. The period of occurrence was at a time when this region was in considerable turmoil. Imperial spheres of influence had not been agreed to particularly in the wake of the defeat of China in the Sino-Japanese war
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of 1895 when the area came notionally under Japanese hegemony but authority remained fuzzy. The proxy Russian entrepreneurs who through the machination of St. Petersburg acquired the concession also fashioned the East Asiatic Company which would serve as a political instrument for control over Korea with the strategic aim to forward a policy of imperial expansion in the Far East. From the Czar’s point of view, control over the Tumen was a strategic imperative in order to protect the western flank of the vulnerable port of Vladivostok, while the Yalu was the only south running river in the East Manchurian region that drained into Korea Bay and the all important Russian port of Lu Shun lay on the mouth of the Yalu. Economic gains from the Russian perspective in this case
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were subordinate to political objectives. A military force of 20,000 was inducted into the region disguised as ‘Lumber Jacks’. However, the Japanese saw in the Russian build up and fortification a challenge to the gains of the war of 1895 that would undermine their influence and authority in Korea. The armed conflict was fought over two days in 1904 from April 29 to May 1. The Japanese First Army numbering 42,000 strong crossed the Yalu on April 29 and rapidly overwhelmed the 25,000 enemy forces. The rout of the Russian Far Eastern Army put paid to the Czarist plan of expansion in the Far East. The Battle is generally acknowledged to have triggered off the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905. The Battle of Yalu was a clear case of governmental investments pressed into service for political ends. The strategy conceived and the operations launched by the Russians were never designed to yield immediate commercial returns but to create and foster national interests. It comes as no surprise that the outcome of this enterprise was not timber but friction that led to war. Contemporary global economics has created demands for raw materials as never before. However, in the context of deep seabed mining, the scale of proportions in terms of investments, infrastructure, risks and returns are of such magnitude that neither entrepreneur nor multinational have the facility to or are willing to come up with the necessary finances; the alternative is to slow down the engines of growth. The latter option is intolerable for large growing competitive economies such as China and India for whom sustained growth lies at the heart of their development strategies. State Capitalism becomes an irresistible instrument under these circumstances. Deep seabed exploration and impending exploitation provides a canvas in the Yalu mould when money is advanced by the Flag and the Flag is followed by the soldier, raising both the stakes and potential for conflict.
International Seabed Authority and Deep Seabed Mining Regime
The International Seabed Authority (ISA) is one of the three institutions established by the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The ISA came into being on November 16, 1994 upon the entry into force of the Convention. Its mandate is to administer the
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India and Deep Sea Mining Race Responding to China’s rapid strides in extending its strategic interest in deepsea mining in the Indian Ocean, India in 2012, announced its own plans for deepsea exploration for metals and minerals (polymetallic nodules) in the region. It has developed the capability to mine the ocean bed at a depth of 6,000m using the ship Sagar Nidhi. Besides, two more ships will be deployed for deep-sea mining—one acquired from South Korea and another built indigenously. Besides, the government has decided that another old research vessel, Sagar Kanya, would be refurbished and deployed to enhance deepsea mining capabilities. The possibility of more acquisitions of vessels is being explored. The Polymetallic nodules containing copper, cobalt, nickel and manganese are viewed as potential resources to meet the increasing demand for these metals worldwide. India has a status of Pioneer Investor and has been allotted a site in the Central Indian Ocean Basin (CIOB) by the International Seabed Authority (ISA) for exploration and technology development for polymetallic nodule mining. Polymetallic nodules have economically valuable metals such as Copper, Cobalt, Nickel and Manganese in them and are viewed as potential resources to take care of the depleting land resources and increasing demand of these metals. There are 380 million tons of nodules in the retained Indian Pioneer area. However, development of deep sea technology for mining these resources are a major challenge considering the ultra high pressure environment, very soft soils and other factors. National Institute of Ocean Technology (NIOT) has been working on a mining concept where a crawler based mining machine collects, crushes and pumps nodules to the mother ship using a positive displacement pump through a flexible riser system. It is expected that multiple mining machines will cover the mining field during large scale commercial mining operations. With this perspective, the integrated mining system is under development for demonstration of deep-sea mining of polymetallic nodules. According to the then Science and technology Minister Ashwini Kumar, the government is concerned that China is not only extending its commercial inter-
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est, but also its strategic interest in the Indian Ocean region through deep-sea mining. “Countries like China have taken to deep-sea mining with a strategic purpose and they are maintaining their presence in the high seas by claiming to undertake deep-sea mining,” he had said. “India is keeping a constant watch on all developments concerning our national security and commercial interest and will take all necessary measures to safeguard them,” Kumar had informed Parliament. Accordingly, India’s National Security Council has been directed to draw up a policy paper to outline more proactive deep-sea mining activities in the Indian Ocean region to counter Chinese expansion. It may be noted that India did have mining rights to several blocks in the South-West Indian Ocean Ridge but had to surrender the blocks to the ISBA following years of exploratory inaction. India’s expansion of deep-sea mining was also in line with the policy initiated in 2011 to create a stockpile of ‘strategically critical input metals’ or rare earths, to compete with China’s complete domination over production and marketing of rare earths (around 95 per cent of global rare-earth mineral output) and also clinch bilateral agreements with countries like Japan for exploration, mining and supply of rare earths. Deep-sea mining will help meet the “critical and strategic needs of the country, particularly in the area of access to rare earth materials”, Kumar had said. A rare-earth mineral processing plant is being set up in the east coast state of Odisha. It is believed that if required, deep-sea mining or rare-earth production technology could be sourced from Japan under the strategic dialogue framework with that country which could also include the acquisition of more vessels. Geopolitics Bureau
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www.isa.org
www.isa.org
Exploration of undersea mineral block in the Indian Ocean
MAP: Exploration Areas in the Indian Ocean
mineral resources of the seabed outside of national jurisdiction which are referred to in the Convention as the ‘Area’. The ‘Area’ is defined in the Convention as “the seabed and ocean floor and subsoil thereof, beyond the limits of national jurisdiction”. Its other functions are to promote and encourage the conduct of marine scientific research in the Area and to coordinate and disseminate the results of such research and to take the necessary measures for the protection of the flora and fauna of the marine environment from activities in the Area. Part XI of the Convention gives ef-
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fect to the principles governing the Area; these have been adopted by the General Assembly of the United Nations. The principles declare that the Area as well as the resources of the Area “are the common heritage of mankind” and that “no state or person, natural or juridical, shall claim, exercise or acquire rights with respect to the area or its resources incompatible with the international regime to be established and the principles of the Declaration”. It further states that “the exploration of the area and the exploitation of its resources shall be carried out for the benefit of mankind as a whole”. It provides that
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“on the basis of the principles contained in the Declaration, an international regime governing the area and its resources shall be established by an international treaty of universal character. The regime shall provide for the orderly and safe development and rational management of the area and its resources. These foundational principles became the basis for the regime at the Third United Nations Conference on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS III in force November 16, 1994). The need for an international system to administer the Area arose from the fact that investors in seabed mining could
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Unlike polymetallic nodules which are generally found at depths of 4,000-6,000 metres partially buried in the sediments and cover vast plains of the deep seabed, polymetallic sulphides and cobalt crusts are localised in their deposits and are three dimensional and therefore, the size of the deposit, in terms of its breadth and depth is not readily apparent unless the sites are drilled. Most of the sites discovered so far have been located in the East, the South-East and in the North-East Pacific Rise, Central Atlantic Ridge and two sites have been located on the ridge system of the Indian Ocean close to the Rodriquez Triple Junction and the South Western Indian Ocean Ridge. It is estimated that so far only 5 per cent of the 60,000km of oceanic ridges worldwide have been surveyed. Most of the un-investigated areas lie in the international seabed area. High concentrations of gold have recently been found and have in turn enhanced the interest of the mining industry. Recovery of those deposits appears to be both economically and environmentally feasible and will likely become a reality sooner than other forms of deposits. The major hurdle in commercial development of these resources remains the economic conditions in the metal market, lack of adequate investment and the slow pace in the development of deep seabed mining technology. The problem with the Authority and the structure upon which the seabed regime rests is the absence of an enforcement mechanism. Nations are unlikely to admit capital investments of the magnitude that the enterprise demands to go
EXTRACTING SEA WEALTH: The Crawler based mining system used for underwater mining moves on the seabed and is controlled by a remote from the mother ship
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unsecured and when interests are critical and governance left to such nebulous beliefs as the ‘common heritage of man’, there will always be pressure to bring into play the ultimate guarantor: the military power.
Exploration, Distribution of Deposits and its Profusion
Seven entities have pioneer investor status which implies reserved site for mining, exclusive survey and exploration rights, development of mining systems and generation of extractive metallurgy technologies; without commercial exploitation (as yet). The Map depicts the exploration area in the Indian Ocean. It includes areas reserved for the authority, environmentally sensitive blocks which includes an environment management plan, Exclusive Economic Zones and the contractually allocated sites as on February 28, 2013. No estimates have been made of total global reserves with any precision, however, to give some sense of the profusion, the estimated reserves of seabed nodules is 500 billion tonnes as against terrestrial resources of 380 million tonnes. Nevertheless, these figures must be viewed with circumspection since neither the density of yield nor the number of economically viable fields can be estimated other than to say that, if eligibility for mining is a yield of 10-15 kg per square metre and the approximation of number of sites is 225, then the total inferred resource is 13,500 million tonnes. Further considerations, including the cost of extraction and capacity of world metal markets to absorb
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only explore and exploit the mineral resources and not exercise exclusive rights over the assigned seabed. These same zones would otherwise be accessible to all in the exercise of their freedom on the high seas. The Authority, therefore, provides an essential safeguard for investors who intend to undertake long term development of the resources of the deep seabed by giving them exclusive rights to the resources of those areas for the duration of their contracts with the ISA. The membership of the International Seabed Authority consists of all parties to the 1982 Convention, and as of 2012, it has 168 members. The principal organs of the Authority are an Assembly, a Council and a Secretariat. An important and exclusive function of the Council is to approve applications for mining contracts or licences submitted to it. The Authority has issued thirteen exploration contracts to entities sponsored by the Governments of India, China, France, Japan, South Korea, Russian Federation, UK, Belgium, Kiribati, Tonga, Germany, Nauru and a consortium based in Poland and sponsored by a number of East European countries. The USA is conspicuous by its absence in this list for reasons of nonratification of UNCLOS III and the comforting knowledge that vast seabed tracts of known deposits in the Pacific Ocean is within their exclusive economic zone (see Map). India, South Korea and China are among six States and one consortium that have pioneer investor status in the enterprise. Twelve of the areas in the contracts are located in the North East Pacific in the Clarion-Clipperton Zone and two in the Central and South western Indian Ocean Ridge and one in the central Atlantic. These locales make up the currently known high density deposit regions. China and South Korea are the only countries that have exploration rights in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The regulations framed by the Authority are applicable only to polymetallic nodules, sulphides and cobalt crusts and currently deal only with prospecting and exploration. Contracts are issued for a period of fifteen years and are extendable up to five years. Polymetallic or manganese nodules which contain manganese, copper, cobalt and nickel are one type of mineral deposit. In recent times much interest has been directed in the research and exploration of polymetallic sulphides and cobalt-rich ferro-manganese crusts.
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by Thucydides. Realism, appeals to precedents and facts rather than abstractions and aims at the doable rather than the absolute. For all its rationality and righteousness, the seabed regime with no enforcement powers would appear to have failed in the realism department. While examining the Yalu River conflict, we took note of the alarming effect of a combination of imperial aspirations, blurred and uncertain authority, money and the military. These attributes are evident in the strategies of all the states that enjoy pioneer status in the regime and may suggest the impending clash of interests in the deep seabed mining sector providing the potential for conflict over a new domain. India’s venture into the field began over three decades ago (1981) when a deep sea expedition collected nodule samples and commenced an exploratory survey. The impetus for the endeavour was scientific and yet the commercial opportunities that it potentially offered was never lost sight of. It registered as a pioneer investor with the authority in 1987 and was allocated an exploratory area of 300,000 square kilometres in the Central Indian Ocean Basin which was later relinquished to 150,000 square Kilometres. EXPLORING THE SEABED: Deepsea mining equipAll the while necessary infrastructure ment being brought up in the Pacific Ocean region and technologies have been generated for survey and exploration, fabrication of mining systems and development of extractive and metallurgical capabilities. The exertion is a naproduction during the tional effort and one notes first 20 years will rethe ‘Yalu’ pattern of close Today, China as duce viable numbers linkage between national with other large powers, to 10 mines with interests and ‘Inversion’. has devised strategies an output of 100The China-narrative 600 million tonnes follows much the same to exploit the economic (these figures recourse and concept as opportunities that the main speculative India with a critical difglobalised, technology ference: growth is synbut are indicative driven world has placed onymous with survival of of the resources that dispensation and access will fuel growth of large on offer to raw materials that fuels economies such as China and India). growth is the key. No surprise that China devises access control Quandary of Strategic Expansion and denial strategies for the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and releases a ‘Blue and Book’ that outlines its policy and terms Inversion Hans Morgenthau, writing on the prinof engagement with the IOR littorals and ciples of international relations, has unexhorts pro-active efforts to secure its derscored the importance of forces that economic interests. In a break from the have their roots in human nature in order past China expresses its anxieties and to appreciate the correlation of States. fears (in the Morgenthauvian mould) And human nature is motivated by fear, that change and growth have precipitated self interest and honour as pointed out and has underscored the ‘fragile balance
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of power’ that exists in the IOR, which to any observer announces a calibrated emphasis on the security dimension. Even a cursory examination of the news report suggests that not only is there forecast of overlapping interests, as they will be, when exploitation of the deep seabed becomes a viable alternative, but also of the increased probability of friction that the introduction of military presence into the region will trigger. In sum we have the recipe to skew the existing status quo.
Cooperative Impulse to Security as a Conclusion
Expansion to Imperial aspirations was the singular urge that found expression in the Yalu conflict of 1904. Today, China as with other large powers, has devised strategies to exploit the economic opportunities that the globalised, technology driven world has placed on offer; but with a deviation that rejects mutuality and sees growth with ‘Chinese characteristics’, a euphemism for expansion on its terms, the nature of which the Chinese author Yasheng Huang has so graphically described as “…crony capitalism built on systemic corruption and raw political power”. The cooperative impulse to security, which would serve to stabilise the seabed regime, through joint restraint and enforced regulation, is weak and as China’s power and ambitions grow the points of conflict and differences will mount. Exploitation of deep seabed resources is one such point. While the balance-of-power consideration provides a modicum of stability, it is essentially an uncompromising defensive mechanism that serves as a trip wire for response when provocation is anticipated, it cannot replace cooperative processes. Fundamental to the durable functioning of the seabed regime is to set up unwavering regulatory processes that are enforceable by a security structure made up by the stake holders as represented by the investors awarded pioneer status. The very stakes that they have in the venture may catalyse action in this direction. A failure to impose such an arrangement on the International Seabed Authority will possibly witness the outcome of this enterprise to be not polymetallic nodules but friction that leads to armed conflict. The author is a retired Vice Admiral
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PARIS AIR SHOW
INTERVIEW
On-the-spot report from Le Bourget ( Paris Air Show 2013)
Jim Dolan talks about providing intelligence systems to India GEOPOLITICS
D E F E N C E
B U S I N E S S
Air Lifting
Modernising the T-90 Tank Fleet
Mammoths
n the month of June, the first Boeing C-17 Globemaster III arrived at the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) Hindon airbase, marking the continuing upgrade of its strategic airlift capabilities. The IAF seems quite keen to become the largest strategic airlift capability air force in Asia. The IAF is actually recapitalising its entire transport fleet with a view, to both become more potent in out-ofarea operations as well as to support the Indian Army’s ever-growing logistical requirements. Ever since the Ministry of Defence
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(MoD), issued its 2009 directive, to prepare the military for a two-front war, there has been a heightened sense of urgency in acquiring platforms that can move men and materiel over considerable distances at short notice. Even prior to this, the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami had also brought to light the need to bring in longer range airborne platforms that can sustain humanitarian support across the seas. Accordingly, the C-17 Globemaster III was the right choice and zeroed in on as an optimal platform for meeting the varied requirements of the IAF.
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To strengthen its battlefield capability, India has decided to upgrade its main battle tank—T-90, and is planning to induct 1,650 of these tanks from Russia
USA AIR FORCE
The Indian Air Force has reached a new era, where it is all set to provide its transport fleet with both strategic and tactical capabilities, enabling the nation to carry out its missions in a precise manner, writes Saurav Jha
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fter more than a decade of their induction, the Indian Army has decided to upgrade the capabilities of its main battle tank— T-90, in collaboration with the Original Equipment Manufacturer (OEM), Russia, and the Indian partner, Ordnance Factory Board (OFB). To discuss the upgrades planned to be carried out on the tanks, which would be the mainstay of the force for the next few decades, a high-level Army team visited Russia recently and held parleys with the OEMs in this regard, according to the officials of the Defence Ministry. India is planning to induct a total of 1,650 T-90 tanks from Russia which are sent to OFB’s Heavy Vehicles Factory in Continued on page 28
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Of the ten C-17s ordered, in June 2011 for $4.1 billion, five are to be delivered by 2013, with the remaining five being commissioned in 2014. Described as both a tactical and strategic airlifter, as it can land combat capable soldiers in remote locations or airdrop paratroops directly to specific points, the C-17’s ability to back up over even a two degree gradient facilitates operation on both narrow taxiways as well as congested ramps. The plane, according to the manufacturer has a maximum payload of 74,797 kg, a range of 4320 km and can take off and land in 3,000 feet or even less. The C-17s ‘hot and high’ capability is of particular interest to the IAF that has to contend with terrain as different as the heights of Leh and the heat of the Thar Desert. In a fast-paced limited conflict with China or Pakistan, the C-17 aircraft’s ability to operate from small and rugged airstrips in all-weather conditions makes it a useful asset for reinforcing remote regions in Ladakh or Arunachal Pradesh, through the use of advance landing grounds. Boeing, as per contract will also support India’s C-17 fleet through the “C-17 Globemaster III Sustainment Partnership”, which is a multinational ‘performance-based logistics programme’. And this apparently, gives ‘access to an extensive support network for worldwide parts availability and economies of scale’. It would be interesting to see, how really it turns out in the coming decades for the IAF, given the vagaries of the Indo-US relationship. Of course, the C-17 is not the only American transport platform that has found favour with the IAF. Indeed, the timely delivery of the first six C-130Js contracted from Lockheed Martin in 2008 (all six were delivered ahead of schedule in 2011) and currently based at Hindon airbase, gave India confidence with respect to being able to obtain aircraft from the American production lines. There is no doubt, that the American platforms at some level has been driven by their ability to deliver quickly at a time when India needs to be ready to face the possibility of a joint attack by China and Pakistan, in the logistically-difficult northern sector. The C-130J proved its worth during the 2011 Sikkim earthquake and the satisfied IAF chose to exercise the option clause from its prior contract with Lock-
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heed Martin for six more C-130Js in late 2011. Commercial negotiations for the new batch are still under process. However, once delivered, these will be based at Panagarh airbase in West Bengal and are expected to serve both the North East as well as the island chains in the Bay of Bengal. IAF C-130Js, though stripped of some of the US-origin equipment, such as high precision GPS receivers, which were replaced by indigenous substitutes that enable them to tie up with the IAF’s AFNET, will also be able to receive signals from the Indian regional navigational satellite systems (IRNSS) in the near future. There are indications that another two dozen of C-130Js may be brought in by the IAF. India may also order new C-17s (by opting for the options clause for six more C-17s), although further demand for these types is probably concomitant on the willingness of the Amerithe rhetoric from the succescan majors, such as Boeing and Lockheed Martin sive US ambassador, it is Indeed, after the to discharge standard Russia and to a great exFifth Generation Fighter tent, may be Israel and offset requirements. Aircraft Programme and France, with who India At the moment, the the Brahmos Project, will continue to partner Americans have not in the substantive cobeen able to show the MTA Programme is development ventures. the desired level of probably the single largRussia is, actually, the commitment to meet est collaborative project leader by miles in this offset obligations. between India and sphere, with more than Their attempt to discharge offset obligations 200 joint projects currentRussia ly underway, including, the through transfers in ‘kind’ HAL-UAC multirole transport of simulators and transonic aircraft (MTA) venture. wind tunnels, has not gone down Indeed, after the Fifth Generation well with the Indian industry. The offset Fighter Aircraft Programme and the Brahpolicy, after all, has been set up to create mos Project, the MTA Programme is probwork share possibilities for the emerging Indian military industrial complex. ably the single largest collaborative project between India and Russia, which is Especially, when the fact is that, these being valued at $ 600 million. In October orders have come at a difficult time for 2012, a preliminary design agreement was the American defence landscape. For instance, Boeing’s Long Beach Facility of signed between UAC transport aircraft C-17 production line will keep humming (UAC-TA), HAL and MTA Limited. Following, the PDP contract, at least 31 Indithrough 2014, in no small measure due to an engineers are working alongside with these Indian orders. their Russian counterparts, who have What we see above is precisely the been based at UAC-TA, since December reason why the turn towards the US does 2012. MTAL is a 50:50- Indo-Russian joint not mean that the Russians are out of venture that is executing the developthe game as far as the IAF’s future transment of this aircraft. port fleet is concerned. Indeed, while the HAL is also simultaneously carrying Americans are dithering on discharging even standard offset requirements, out its share of the ‘MTA’ development Russia is partnering with India, in the workload at the “Aircraft (R&D) Centre joint co-development and production of Bangalore” and “HAL’s Transport Aircraft modern weapon systems. And despite Division” at Kanpur, which will produce
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THE LANDMARK: External and internal views of the Globemaster III
the prototypes besides undertaking serial production of these aircraft. HAL’s other divisions will naturally contribute in terms of components and sub-parts. At least, 205 MTAs are projected to be built for the Indian and Russian militaries. The MTA, although, ostensibly being brought in to replace the An-32, is better seen as a successor to the now retired An12 and its payload capability will be between 15 tons to 20 tons. Its maximum, cruise speed will be just under 800 km/ hr, with a maximum range capability of over 2600 km. The fuselage length is projected to be at 115 feet extending another 15 feet, if the tail section is taken into account with a total wingspan of 129 feet. This is expected to allow the MTA, to carry fully equipped soldiers seated six-abreast across the 11-foot cabin cross section, along with a pair of standard sized Indian army trucks. As far as, the power plant of the MTA is concerned, Russian company, Ilyushin has confirmed that the Aviadvigatel PS90A76 engine, which has already been selected for the IL-76MD-90/90A transport aircraft, will power the prototype of the MTA as well as the initial batch of production aircraft. The final engine choice, however, will be decided by MTAL. According to reports, the PS-14 engine developed for Irkut’s MS-21 narrow body airliner is also under consideration, especially so that the IAF’s ‘hot and high’ requirements are easily met. At the moment, the maximum
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airfield elevation that the proposed MTA could operate from is 10,800 feet and the IAF wants to see, if this can be enhanced to 13,400 feet. The PS-14 might just enable this targeted increase in high altitude operational capability. The newest and most exciting prospect, as far as the Indian private sector is concerned, in the realm of transport procurements by the IAF, is the recently announced move to acquire a replacement of the Avro origin HS-748. In a very positive signal to the Indian private sector, the IAF has sent out a request for proposals (RFP) to Embraer, Lockheed Martin, Airbus, Ilyushin, Casa, Saab and Alenia Aeronuatica for the procurement of 56 transport aircraft, 16 of which will be bought off the shelf, with the remaining 40 produced in India by an Indian production agency (IPA) from the private sector. HAL’s overflowing order book, has led the Ministry of Defence to keep it out of contention for this programme. The winning foreign vendor, under this acquisition programme, has the right to choose an Indian IPA based on the qualification criteria stipulated by the RFP. After, fulfilling the initial contract, the IPA will also be allowed to supply planes to the domestic sector or indeed export them. This means, that the real worth of this contract is far in excess of the Rs 13000 crore figures, currently being projected for this tender. Incidentally, the RFP is-
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sued in May 2013, has given five months to the foreign vendors to respond with their techno-commercial proposals. The RFP, for this tender will bring responses for a wide range of aircraft with varying capabilities. One of the front runners is likely to be the EADS CASA-295W, which is the latest version of the C-295 family and has upgraded engines with enhanced hot and high performance. Alenia Aeronautica’s G-222/C-27J Spartan (as it is called in the US service) would have been a strong contender, if there had not been the AgustaWestland VIP transport helicopter scandal. Alenia Aeronautica, which is actually Alenia Aermacchi, since 2012, is a subsidiary of Italian major Finnmeccania, which also obviously owns AgustaWestland. Regardless, one thing must be noted about the IAF’s augmentation of its transport fleet that all the aircraft, being brought in to replace the legacy fleet of IL-76s, An-32s and HS-748s represent a very significant qualitative leap. Taken together, they also greatly enhance the total payload transfer capability of the IAF. For example, the HS-748 replacement whichever it might be, is likely to be an aircraft with much superior payload and range capability. The transformation of the IAF’s transport fleet is to be reckoned with and one which shows that India is serious about adopting a more offensively oriented posture to deter its neighbours.
July 2013
A Giant Leap for Indian Air Force
defbiz
With the arrival of the first Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, the IAF steps into the big leagues.
The Indian Air Force (IAF) received its first Boeing C-17 Globemaster III, a strategic transport aircraft. With this, India became the largest and most advanced in humanitarian and strategic capabilities in Asia.
The
deal that will see India receive ten C-17 Globemaster III (four more in this year and five in 2014). The first aircraft was transferred to India after completion of a flight test programme at Edwards Air Force Base in Palmdale, California, US.
The sale has strengthened US-India global partnership and has managed to sustain
Design The C-17 Globemaster III is 174 feet (53 m) long and has a wingspan of about 170 feet (52 m). It can airlift cargo and land fairly close to a battle area. The giant aircraft comes handy in transporting troops and humanitarian supplies.
in America.
Cockpit
Engines The plane is propelled by four Pratt and Whitney F-117-PW-100 turbofan engines, which are based on the commercial Boeing 757s.
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The aircraft requires a crew of three (pilot, copilot, and loadmaster) for cargo operations. It incorporates Indian GPS receivers, that enable tie-ups with the IAF’s AFNET technology. The system can also receive signals from the Indian regional navigational satellite systems (IRNSS) which are already in use with the IAF’s C-130J Hercules transport aircraft. July 2013
Production of C-17 Globemaster III The Long Beach-based C-17 Globemaster III programme is California’s last remaining aircraft production line and the last wide-bodied military production programme in the US. The C-17 has about 700 supplier companies in 44 states with a supplier workforce of about 25,000. The total estimated annual economic impact of the C-17 across the US is $8.4 billion.
Existing Military Transport Aircraft of IAF C-130J Super Hercules
A four-engined turboprop military transport aircraft from Lockheed Martin, the IAF purchased six C-130J-30s in early 2008 at a cost of up to US$1.059 billion. It has a capacity of carrying 92 passengers and 64 airborne troops. The transport aircraft has a payload of 19,050 kg with a length of 29.79 m and a wingspan of 40.41 m. The C-130J has a maximum takeoff weight of 79,378 kg and a maximum speed of 671 km/h.
Payload capacity The aircraft has a maximum payload of 77,500 kg and a maximum takeoff weight of 265,350 kg. The C-17 can carry heavy battlefield equipment, supplies and troops directly to small airfields in harsh terrain anywhere in the world day or night. It can accommodate: 102 paratroopers/158 troops with palletised and sidewall seats or 53 troops with sidewall seats (allows 13 cargo pallets) only or/36 litter and 54 ambulatory patients.
Another Russian-built four-engined strategic airlifter with a capacity of 50,000 kg and a payload of 42 tonnes, it is 46.59 m long with a wingspan of 50.5 m. The Il-76 has a takeoff weight of 195,000 kg with a maximum speed of 900 km/h. The IAF currently has 24 Il-76s fixed-wing transport fleet mostly used for transporting ration in high altitude regions in Jammu and Kashmir and Siachen region.
Antonov-32
Take off Capability The C-17 can take off from a 7,600-ft airfield and fly 2,400 nautical miles, refuel while in flight and land in 3,000 ft. or less on a small unpaved or paved airfield in day or night.
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Ilyushin Il-76
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There are 105 Russian-built An-32 serving in the IAF of the 125 aircraft that had been bought. A twin-engined turboprop military transport aircraft with a capacity of carrying 42 paratroopers/50 passengers/24 casualties on stretcher with three medical personnel. It is a 23.78 m with a wingspan of 29.20 m. The An-32 has a maximum takeoff weight of 27,000 kg and a maximum speed of 530 km/h. compiled by: naveed anjum designed by: artworks
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Modernising the T-90 Tank Fleet Avadi near Chennai in complete or semiknocked down kits and then assembled there for being used by the Army. Of the planned induction of 1,650 tanks, around 800 have already been supplied to India while the remaining over 700 would be undergoing different sets of upgrades to enable them to be more effective in battlefields, they said. As per the upgrade programme, a few minor upgrades would be carried out on the next lot of around 250 tanks to be delivered to India in the coming couple of years while the remaining around 600 tanks will undergo major upgrades as their delivery schedule would allow India to integrate all the upgrades on the tanks without affecting the timelines adversely. The key change will be a modern targeting system with an automatic target tracker. The gunner inside the tank has to ‘lock-on’ to a target. Once that is done, onboard computers will keep a track of the target in a 360° radius. Fire can be directed at the target as and when needed. At present, the gunner has a tough time keeping track of a moving target while the tank is in motion. The new version of the tank will also have a ‘correction input device’. This will assess all prevailing factors such as distance of target, height and temperature of the barrel and correct the line and trajectory of fire on its own. The third incorporation will be a new muzzle reference system. At present, the front muzzle on the barrel of the tank needs to be aligned afresh each time the barrel position is lowered. The latest version of the T-90 will have a system by which the tank barrel will re-align itself to its earlier-programmed reference point, sources explained. The add-ons are aimed at faster retaliation in the battlefield after the enemy has been spotted and will save precious time consumed on re-aligning and re-assessing the distance of targets. The new tanks will also have an improved thermal imager that will give sharper pictures at night from a distance of 3-4 km. The new thermal imager will pick up variations in temperatures of an advancing vehicle or human being and help the tank commander better understand the looming threat. The existing thermal imagers do not detect variations in temperature. At the last Defence Expo, the Russian Rosoboronexport had for the first time un-
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veiled the ‘T-90MS’ which was basically an offer to India to go for the latest technologies. However, India is not falling for all the upgrades offered by the Russian side in the T-90MS. The Russian side has also agreed to incorporate a number of upgrades on the tank suggested to be done indigenously by the DRDO and other Indian establishments. “The Russians have given us a prototype of the Laser Warning Suite on the
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T-90MS and asked us to provide an indigenous solution for being equipped on the tank. The indigenous system is being developed by the Laser Science and Technology laboratory (LASTEC) laboratory of DRDO,” officials said. “The Russian side had offered a plethora of changes and upgrades in the T-90 but we would be going in for only those things which suit our conditions and will help meet our requirements,’ said the officials.
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roaring tanks: T-90 Tanks performing tests in various weather conditions
The Russian offer showcased the latest turret with the ‘Kalina’ modernised targeting system that is integrated with the squad commander’s control system. It even had a more powerful engine. The T-90-MS tank also has a new version of the explosive reactive armour called Relict, as well as an improved gear shifter and better steering control. Its armour was modified to better withstand fire, though it is now slightly less resistant to the effects of a nuclear attack. The tank is also equipped with an auxiliary diesel engine that is meant to be used during stops. It allows for better fuel efficiency and produces less heat than the main engine, making the vehicle less noticeable in the infra-red spectrum. India has agreed to include the new Auxiliary Power Unit as part of the upgrades as this will help the tank to perform better in desert conditions, where it was initially facing problems of overheating. The Russian tanks have been built by the OEMs keeping in mind the cold con-
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ditions in which the Russian armed forces operate whereas in India they are mostly deployed in the hot desert and plain conditions. India is also taking steps to do away with the night blindness of its tanks including the T-90 and the T-72s. The two mainstays were not capable of operating in night conditions. The Army would be procuring around 5,000 night sights, which will be using thermal imagery, from the public sector undertaking Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL). Of the 5,000 imaging sights, 1,200 pieces would be bought for the T-90 Main Battle Tanks for `960 crore while 2,000 pieces would be provided to the T-72 fleet at a cost of `1,000 crore. The remaining equipment would be installed on the BMP Infantry Combat vehicle fleet of the mechanised infantry regiments. The Defence Ministry has also done away with the shortage of missiles and ammunition for the T-90s as it has recently signed a contract with the Russian Roso-
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boronexport for the supply of 10,000 Invar missiles to be bought directly from the manufacturer there. As part of this agreement, the Russian side will do a transfer of technology to the Indian side under which 25,000 missiles would be produced at the Hyderabad-based Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL). Invar is a weapon fired from the gun barrel of the T-90. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) is expected to soon clear a proposal for the Transfer of Technology (ToT) to the BDL by the Russian side which would cost India around `10,000 crore more. India first bought 310 T-90S tanks from Russia, of which 120 were delivered complete, 90 in semi-knocked down kits, and 100 in completely knocked down kits. India had to go for procurement of the T-90 after the massive delays in the Arjun MBT programme. The Army has so far placed orders for only 248 of the indigenous tanks. India is expected to receive all the 1650 tanks from Russia by the end of 2018-19.
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Delight for the military
T
he 50th Paris Air Show wrapped up at Le Bourget with aviation companies announcing deals for about 1,460 aircraft over the show’s four business days, signalling not only a healthy global aerospace industry, but also the growing importance of small-to-medium-sized regional passenger jet aircraft. The show’s top aircraft sales performer was Airbus of Toulouse, France, which by rough count made deals for 536 single-aisle and widebody passenger jets during the show. Perhaps, the biggest surprise of the show was South American aircraft manufacturer Embraer with strong sales of the company’s recently-introduced E2 family of regional passenger jets.
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The 50th edition of the Paris Air Show was a showcase for military and civil aircraft but the ones who made quite a splash were the Russians. A report from Le Bourget
The final tally had Airbus with 537 aircraft sales worth about $70 billion, Embraer with 381, Boeing with 275 sales with about $66.4 billion (a Boeing announcement said the company actually sold 442 planes at Paris), French passenger turboprop designer ATR with 115, Canadian regional and business jet maker with 72 sales, followed by helicopter makers AgustaWestland with 54 sales, Sikorsky with 17 sales, and Eurocopter with 10.This year’s was the best Paris Air Show in the history of ATR.The company sold 115 passenger turboprop aircraft, though the company claimed to have sold 173. The biggest winner, apart
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from the two big manufacturers was the Russians. After years and years of trying to make a mark, they were there on the big stage and being taken seriously by everyone. In fact, as one observer who was attending his 15th air show commented, “Russia’s defence industry, like the Su-35, is roaring into global markets.” Russian military exports have roughly quadrupled since the early 1990s and Sukhoi Su-35 fighter jet thrilled onlookers during a demonstration flight at the show. “I think that this shows we are firmly holding a position as one of the world leaders,” said Mikhail Pogosyan, Chief Executive of Sukhoi builder United Air-
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craft Corp., a holding company created in 2006 to consolidate and rebuild Russia’s battered aviation industry during a news conference. Although there were a few clean sheet launches at the show, most Russian products on display were modernised versions of earlier designs. The Su-35 was amongst the evolutions of the original Su-27. The Kamov Ka-52 was an update of an earlier 182 version. But where they beat the Western hardware is in their inexpensiveness and general robustness. The Russian aircraft still lack the cutting-edge electronics of rival Western products and generally require more maintenance, which can be expensive. Mikhail Pogosyan hopes to sell 100 Su-35s outside Russia and this is not an empty boast. He is positioning the aircraft against the best the West has to offer and they are pouring millions into development. Russian helicopters sales are growing by as much as 12-15 per cent each year and were the cynosure of all eyes at the show. With solid power, if not finesse, these choppers are finding their own market and they are competitive too when it comes to prices. Sukhoi is also marketing a new shortrange passenger jet,—Superjet 100—that it has already sold in Russia and other countries, including Mexico. Despite a few hiccups including a deadly pilot error inducted crash in Indonesia, the aircraft was plumped solidly at Paris. In a formal ceremony on the second day of the show, the first Sukhoi SSJ100 Superjet for a Western customer was presented to Mexican airline Interjet. Later, Irkut showcased its narrowbody MS-21 commercial jet, with an airframe made up of 30 per cent composites including a vacuum-infused wing produced by Irkut’s AeroComposit Centre of Excellence. According to Oleg Demchenko, Irkut’s President, “The MC-21 provides more passenger personal space than the 787 or the A350 XWB.” With the design frozen, the aircraft is entering production now and testing is underway. The first flight is scheduled for 2015. A few of the other highlights from the show included Boeing’s announcement of the stretch Dreamliner—the 787-10. The new model will transport 300 to 330 passengers up to 7,000 nautical miles (12,964 km), a distance that Boeing says covers 92 per cent of worldwide twin-aisle routes/
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Look-shoot tech from Raytheon There is an exciting new upgrade from Raytheon that could well change the matrix of warfare in the coming years. It created waves at Paris and could well be one of the products of the year. Part of the Advanced Warfighter Awareness for Realtime Engagement (AWARE) product line, what it does is provide a straight through the eyes (monocle) display that can help vastly improve coordination between the ground and the air. AWARE helps soldiers on the ground summon help and direct firepower simply by looking at the targets with their eye movements. The coordinates are then directly relayed through the network in precise terms and airpower can do the rest. What it means is that troops on the ground can work real-time with their colleagues in the air to target areas, provide support or logistics or simply to map out precise details upfront. Raytheon has developed a new Center Display Unit (CDU) for the F16. The new CDU is easy to fit and requires no specialised modification of the aircraft. This highdefinition screen is open to any inputs
and can be used to present moving maps, tactical displays and mission information, as well as messaging functions and aircraft and navigation information. Partnering the new CDU is the HMIT (helmet-mounted integrated targeting) sight, which was developed in conjunction with Thales. This monocle display provides a cost-effective means of displaying tactical information such as target locations, even in a night-vision goggle environment. Raytheon has now combined all these features into a system that uses all these elements in conjunction with other technology, including the HMIT sight, for application to the JTAC’s (Joint Tactical Air Controller) role. What this does in the rigged-up system is help JTACs see marked targets in the monocular sight. The system automatically generates targetingquality coordinates on command. Using the touch-screen wrist display, the JTAC can add other information and then send the information and coordinates digitally to close-support aircraft in the form of a nine-line brief.
city pairs. According to Scott Fancher, Vice President and General Manager of Airplane Development, Commercial Airplanes, Boeing, the new version will be 25 per cent more efficient than similarly sized aircraft today, thanks to a combination of the larger size, engine configuration and the high-efficiency wing design, and will be the most efficient jetliner in history. Design has already started and the flight test is anticipated for 2017, with the first delivery in 2018. The 787-10 reportedly will go up against Airbus’ A350-900 and -1000 versions. Customers seemed pleased with the concept, as commitments for 102 aircraft were announced at the show. Airbus, in a dramatic development, diverted its first flying A350 XWB to the show on June 21, during its third test
flight, for a dramatic wheels-up flyby. The aircraft had completed its first flight only seven days previously. The flyover was witnessed by French President François Hollande, who arrived at Le Bourget on an Airbus Military A400M aircraft, from Villacoublay French Air Force Base, southwest of Paris. While there was plenty of action on all fronts, the most exciting technological innovations came on the ground. A dual French-American partnership gave its first demonstration of an electric taxiing system for passenger aircraft at the show developed by Safran and Honeywell. The ‘Electric Green Taxiing System’ (EGTS) will also help airlines cut their fuel bills, as up to five per cent of an aircraft’s load of
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Bell’s new clean sheet
X3 delights visitors The X3 was there; so were the latest members of the Eurocopter family, including the EC645 T2, the AS565 MB Panther and the EC135. Just days before the show began, Eurocopter set a new unofficial world speed record for rotary-winged aircraft when its X3 hybrid helicopter attained 255 knot (472km/h) in level flight on June 7. This record-breaking flight took place at an altitude of 10,000 ft during a 40-minute test-flight over southern France near Istres, the company announced on June 11. According to the company, this achievement followed a top speed set by the X3 of 263 knot (487km/h) in a descent which was flown a few days earlier. Eurocopter test pilot Hervé Jammayrac and experimental flight test engineer Dominique Fournier were at the Paris Air Show to discuss their record-breaking flight in Eurocopter’s X3 technology demonstrator aircraft. According to Fournier, the record attempt was possible because there was still some ‘reserve’ power when the X3 had recorded speeds of 235 knots earlier. Between mid-2010 and mid-2011, the rotor had performed at those levels during several runs. According to the pilots, the transition from aircraft to chopper was smooth. The X3 is set to run for just around ten more hours as scheduled on the programme. There is nothing further planned for it and no one knows as yet if the prototype will move to the drawing board or it will just be another experiment at high speed rotor technology adaptability. Also, the company broke ground on June 20 for the start of construction on Eurocopter’s new industrial site, known as ‘Paris-Le Bourget.’
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Bell Helicopter at the Paris Air show revealed that it was developing a new ‘Short Light Single’ (SLS) helicopter that will be powered by a Turbomeca Arrius 2R turboshaft engine. “The new ‘Clean Sheet’ aircraft was expected to fly by 2014 and will be powered for the first time by a Turbomeca engine,” John Garrison, President and CEO of Bell Helicopter said. “Bell Helicopter is no stranger to the Short Light Single market. We developed it nearly 50 years ago with the introduction of the Bell 206 JetRanger and are proud to have produced nearly 7,400 Bell 206 series aircraft since 1967 with over 4,400 remaining in service today,” said Garrison and further added, “However, we needed to create a new, modernised aircraft to meet requirements of five-seat utility, training, private, and law enforcement operators.” Bell Helicopter’s new Short Light Single engine helicopter will feature a high visibility, fully flat cabin floor with five forward-facing seats. It is designed to
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meet performance targets recommended by the customer advisory council including a speed of 125 knots (232km), a range of 360 to 420 nautical miles (667km) and a useful load of 1,500 pounds (608kg). Garrison explained that the model’s expected performance is targeted to satisfy requirements that Bell has derived from input generated by the company’s customer advisory council and that the name of the new Bell model would be announced at Heli-Expo 2014. “We are thrilled to be working with Turbomeca, the world’s largest solelydedicated helicopter engine manufacturer. As we worked with our customer advisory council to define requirements for the Short Light Single Aircraft, we knew we needed a team member that could deliver an effective and reliable engine to power their needs,” said John Garrison. Olivier Andriès, Chairman & CEO at Turbomeca, said, “This is the very first time in 75 years of commitment to the helicopter industry that Turbomeca has entered a long-term collaboration with Bell. We are very proud to offer the newest member of our Arrius family, the Arrius 2R, to power Bell’s new Short Light Single Engine Aircraft. The entire Turbomeca team will strive to earn the confidence both of Bell and its worldwide customers”.
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Rockwell Collins launches Helisure Rockwell Collins launched HeliSure, a family of products that will provide helicopter pilots with unprecedented situational awareness to help them meet the challenges of flying in increasingly congested and hazard-filled airspace. HeliSure delivers sensor data in real time through an intuitive user interface that features 3D visualisation for information that pilots can easily, quickly and effectively process. The first two products of the HeliSure family are Helicopter Synthetic Vision System (H-SVS) and Helicopter Terrain Awareness and Warning System (H-TAWS), which have been selected by AgustaWestland for the AW149, AW189, AW101 and AW169 platforms. HeliSure’s H-SVS perfectly matches the outside world and meets operator requirements for improved situational awareness, particularly in degraded visual environments, where an accurate understanding of the surrounding terrain becomes critical. Rockwell Collins’ H-SVS
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solution is a fully integrated software application that can be ported to most current generation large format displays. Whether it is emergency medical services (EMS), law enforcement, search and rescue, or any number of other demanding mission profiles, the very nature of a typical helicopter mission means the aircrew must operate in potentially dangerous environments. HeliSure’s H-TAWS product enhances the safety of those missions by providing pilots with advanced warning about dangers along their flight path including its ability to graphically depict terrain and known obstacles.
Sikorsky Aerospace Services (SAS) announced its Sikorsky Training Academy (STA)—located in the US—that will open on September 6, 2013. The academy will provide advanced flight and maintenance training and will initially focus on the needs of international military Black Hawk helicopter operators. SAS, the worldwide aftermarket business of Sikorsky Aircraft Corp. implements and manages all training programmes for the company’s military and commercial platforms. Meanwhile, the company also announced a new joint venture with Boeing aimed at pursuing the US Foreign Military Sales (FMS) contracts that will expand the Saudi Arabian fleet of military helicopters. The equal share joint venture, Boeing-Sikorsky International Services will be based in Saudi Arabia, as both companies look to capture a large share of US FMS contracts in the country. The joint venture comes a few months after the helicopter OEMs agreed to partner on the US Army’s Joint Multi-Role (JMR) competition, a precursor to Future Vertical Lift (FVL). Sikorsky also announced several new orders at the show, including a contract with China’s CITIC Offshore Helicopter Co (COHC) for two S-92 helicopters. Sikorsky hopes the deal can break the stranglehold its big rival, Eurocopter, has on the lucrative and rapidly growing Chinese market for helicopters to be used in the offshore oil and gas business.
The Alligator roars and the Hunter hunts On the first day of the air show on June 17, Russia signed an export contract for the delivery of the Mi-28N Night Hunter helicopter (above). The Mi-28N is a multipurpose military helicopter. More than 50 Mi-28 helicopters have been delivered to the Russian military as attack helicopters. However, he did not reveal who the contract—the first for Night Hunter in Le Bourget—had been signed with and for how many helicopters. It was previously reported that Iraq had ordered 40 Night
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Hunter helicopters from Russia. Russian Helicopters and Rosoboronexport showcased the latest Ka-52 Alligator (left) combat helicopter at the Paris Air Show on June 17 with a spectacular programme of flying. The Ka-52 Alligator is an all-weather, daynight combat helicopter, equipped with stealth technologies and active IR and electronic jammers, and is designed to Russian and international standards for combat helicopters and their operation. Kamov is working to provide a variety of weapons
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capability for the Russian Navy’s Ka-52K. While the design is yet to be revealed, no one knows what will be the weapon suite that it will carry? The aircraft at Paris was on view with a variety of MBDA’s weapons, such as the Marte anti-ship missile, Mistral air-to-air missile and PARS3 precision weapon. The Russians look at great prospects for the Ka-52. The chopper can operate at an altitude exceeding 4,000 metres. Two VK-2500 gas turbine engines enable the helicopter to fly above 5,000 metres.
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UAVs galore Believe it or not, over 450 projects are being pursued across 20 European countries to develop UAVs. Now it is very difficult to differentiate between civil and military projects but those in the knowledge, states that a majority of the projects are for civil UAVs, less complicated, straightforward and ranges from just less than a few kgs to those that can be compared with single aisle aircrafts. Interestingly, a majority of the companies are either new or small and medium (SMEs) in this segment. The UAVs that are now being madeand as the demand far outstrips the supply—is for jobs like for aerial land surveys for infra projects, wildlife protection, forest fires, mining etc . While most of the R&D at the moment is focused on getting drones to fulfill security and defence needs, the European Commission believes that in the next 10 years a huge market will emerge for civil applications. Industry research firm—Teal Group has estimated that annual spending on UAVs around the world will almost double to $11.4 billion by 2022: “The sales of UAVs will follow recent patterns of hightech arms procurement worldwide, with the Asia-Pacific area representing the second largest market, followed by Europe.” Indeed, the Asia-Pacific region may represent an even larger segment of the market, but several significant players in the region, namely Japan and China are not especially transparent about their
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fuel is used while the plane is still on the ground. Perhaps, the biggest disappointment was the Bombardier C Series that was expected to garner big orders at the show. For starters, it was upstaged by the E2 that ran away with 365 orders. Bombardier was left to announce a few business jet orders that wasn’t really the same
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plans compared to Europe. As in the case of many cutting edge aerospace products, Africa and Latin America are expected to be very modest markets for UAVs. All this has led to an increasing desire for legislation on where, how and when will UAVs be allowed to fly in public airspace. Moreover, there is still a widespread mistrust of UAVs—seen more specifically as keyholes in the sky and as drones—and there are deep reservations on safety and privacy. The Aerospace Industries Association, the U.S industry’s biggest lobbying group, released a new poll at the Paris Airshow, which showed that 54 per cent people favour use of drones for civilian purposes, including border patrol, weather prediction and disaster response. Meanwhile, just as the show was to start, in a joint statement, EADS (European Aeronautic Defence and Space), the parent company of Airbus, Dassault Aviation of France and Finmeccanica of Italy, said a regional collaboration in unoccupied aerial vehicles would “support the capability needs of European armed forces while optimising the difficult budgetary situation through pooling of research and development funding”. After years of pitching competing programmes to reluctant governments, the three companies said on that they were prepared to work together to design a European medium-altitude, longendurance or MALE (Medium Altitude Long Endurance) drone which could fly missions of up to 48 hours at the
as plumping for the C Series. “We are discussing with dozens of potential customers… they’ve been here visiting us,” Mike Arcamone, who oversees commercial aircraft for Bombardier, told journalists. “We are not scheduling orders for the air show since we must sign orders that are beneficial for both parties,” he said. Among the host of international aviation majors that had innovative displays at the Paris Air Show were Saab, Safran,
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elevation of 10,000 to 30,000 feet or about 3,000 to 9,000 metres. While, normally used for surveillance, such unoccupied vehicles can be equipped with missiles for combat. “European sovereignty and independence in the management of information and intelligence would be guaranteed” by such a programme, the companies said on the eve of the weeklong Paris Air Show. They added that an effort on a European scale would “foster the development of high technologies and contribute to sustaining key competencies and jobs within Europe.” Some of the UAVs on display and announced were: • •
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Safran’s Patroller, a long-endurance surveillance drone. Piaggio’s P.1HH- Hammer head drone. The plane is an unmanned version of its 47-foot long P180 Avanti business turboprop. The Italian air force announced at the show that it will buy 10 of the planes to replace its US-made MQ-9 Reaper drones. Thale’s Watchkeeper. Elbit System’s Hermes 900. Cassidian Introduced the new Future European MALE (Medium Altitude Long Endurance) UAS project for ISTAR missions (Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition and Reconnaissance), as well as the stealth UAS concept SAGITTA. Dassault Aviation’s top secret stealth UAV Neuron and IAI’s Heron UAV.
Lockheed Martin, etc. More details about the Paris Air Show will follow in the next issue of Geopolitics. Finally, a word about the show. Inspite of all the downturn and the economic slump, it was a sold out Le Bourget. Barring the exception of Northrop Grumman, no major American company was absent and the general perception was that the downturn was slowly ebbing and next year could be better and bigger.
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Avinash Chander takes over as Director, DRDO Padma Shri Avinash Chander took over as the 11th Scientific Advisor to Defence Minister, Secretary Defence Research and Development and Director General DRDO. Avinash Chander has been appointed for a period of three years. Expressing determination to enhance the level of self-reliance in defence sector, he affirmed, “We are looking forward to
further growth in indigenous capabilities and achieve a goal of 75 per cent self-reliance. DRDO has tremendous potential and the right critical mass to deliver. Today the ambience is right, with the maturity of Indian industry and our own R&D capabilities”. The eminent Missile Scientist envisioned and evolved the Strategies for
Long Range Missiles and led the design and development of AGNI series of Missile Systems. He said, “We have taken major programs in multiple areas. Our focus is on performance and timely deliveries of critical programmes like LCA, Artillery Guns and Surface to air missiles systems. Simultaneously, we want to make sure that DRDO becomes a leading technology agency in the world. While we set our eyes on this process, we need to involve academia in a very close interaction to create frontline centres of excellence in R&D”. Speaking on the importance of involving Indian industry in enhancing selfreliance in defence sector, he said, “DRDO is committed to harness industry capability and create right environment for involving Indian industry in major programmes. We want industry to develop R&D growth, so that DRDO can focus on higher and higher technologies and support industry in realising requirements of our armed forces”.
Global vendors’ meet: HAL provides grievance redressal mechanism for vendors HAL organised the global vendors meet and introduced a Grievance Redressal Mechanism where bidders aggrieved by any decision can make an application to the Grievance Redressal Committee at divisional and complex levels. HAL is in the process of streamlining its procurement process, particularly on imports and adopt best global practices, said Dr. R.K. Tyagi, Chairman, HAL. Around 110 vendors—half of them representing foreign countries—were present at the meet started. In 2012-13, HAL made major purchases from 566 suppliers from 27 countries including 270 from India. The company has reviewed its purchase procedures and has come out with the revised purchase manual besides introducing online bill tracking system.
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MoD promulgates Defence Procurement Procedure-2013
The new Defence Procurement Procedure aims to balance the competing requirements of expediting capital procurement, developing a robust indigenous defence sector and conforming to the highest standards of transparency, probity and public accountability, while laying a strong emphasis on promoting indigenisation and creating a level playing field for the Indian Industry.
Some features of the DPP–2013 are as follows: •
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The first major change that has been brought in relates to the introduction of the ‘preferred categorisation’ in the following order; Buy (Indian), Buy and Make (Indian), Make (Indian), Buy and Make, Buy (Global). While seeking the approval for Áccord of Necessity (AoN) in a particular category, say, Buy (Global), it will now be necessary to give justification for not considering the other higher preference categories. This is expected to give a stronger impetus to indigenisation. Stipulations related to the indigenous content have been clarified and made more stringent. Indigenous content requirements will now extend all the way to the lowest tier of the subvendor. Hence, import content in the products supplied by the sub-vendors will not qualify towards indigenous content’. While a penalty has been stipulated for not achieving the required indigenous content at a given stage, a scope to make up the deficiency at later stages has been provided. A method for assessment of indigenous content, based on self certification by vendors, has been given while keeping provision for audit by MoD or its nominated agency, if found necessary. A major set of changes aimed at mak-
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ing the procurement process speedier includes the stipulation to finalise the SQRs before seeking the accord for ‘Acceptance of Necessity’ and reducing the validity period of an AoN from two years to one year. This will bring down the processing time of individual cases significantly. • In order to encourage timely submission of the bids by the vendors and to discourage last minute requests for extension of time, it has been stipulated that any request for extension of the bid submission date must be made at least two weeks prior to the bid submission date with adequate justification. • Impetus to indigenisation would also require simplification of the Buy and Make (Indian) and Make procedure. The exercise to simplify the Buy and Make (Indian) procedure has been completed doing away interalia with the requirement of short-listing the vendors through the ‘Project Appraisal Committee’ while keeping the validity of the AoN to two years permitting comprehensive consultations with the Industry. This is expected to bring more projects under the Buy and Make (Indian) category. Simplification of the Make procedure is underway and is expected to be completed in few months. • In Buy (Global) cases, it will now be possible for the Indian vendor to give Maintenance ToT to another Indian vendor of their choice. The MToT partner is no longer required to be nominated by the DDP. Apart from the features enumerated above, a number of other changes have been made which are procedural in nature and aim at bringing clarity and efficiency and in the procurement procedures. Further measures to strengthen the Indian Defence Sector are under consideration and will be brought about after due consultation with all stake holders. In the meantime, it is expected that this document will be well received by the Industry, the users and other stakeholders at large in the Indian Defence Sector. With these changes, the new procedure is expected to provide the much needed thrust to the Indian Defence Industry in the years to come while continuing to meet the defence requirements of the country at an even pace.
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NI brings industry together
India Defence and Aerospace Symposium (IDAS), organised by Society of Indian Aerospace Technologies & Industries (SIATI) in association with National Instruments (NI) completed its sixth edition—IDAS 2013—in Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Delhi. The event hosted various sessions on radar test and validation, wireless sensors and apps, large channel data acquisition, RF hardware-in-loop design, versatile Record and Playback, simulators, autonomous systems etc. These were attended by defence personnel, engineers and researchers representing various functional groups, government authorities and multi-national companies. Other highlights at the event included a unique exhibition arena that dis played live demonstrations, case studies presentations, innovative products from NI partners and technical consultation. The sessions in these tracks enabled participants gain deeper insights into best practices and business benefits that can be achieved through the NI PXI platform and Graphical system design technology. NI continues to be a key driver of innovation and new technologies that will help military, aerospace and defence companies in India build more effective test and embedded systems.
July 2013
DEF BIZ BVR700 broadband router Cassidian introduced its broadband vehicular router, BVR700, a ruggedised vehicular router whose purpose is to provide wireless broadband data to various IT equipment deployed inside vehicles. This latest generation terminal from Cassidian is specially designed to give demanding users resilience and security. It features an LTE 700/UMTS module that delivers fast, responsive broadband wireless communications to public safety first responders—ensuring anytime, anywhere access to mission-critical field applications. The BVR700 automatically selects the best wireless connectivity from the available bearers, including 4G LTE and commercial bands, as well as Wi-Fi. This process is completely seamless for the user. The BVR700’s superior shock, vibration, temperature and water specifications result in a modular and rugged design that meets public safety durability requirements, meaning that it can be installed in a wide variety of vehicles, including cars, trucks, tracked vehicles and motorcycles.
HAL’s SDR system inaugurated Minister of State for Defence, Jitendra Singh, inaugurated Software Defined Radio (SDR) system at HAL’s Strategic Electronic Research Design Centre (SLRDC) at Hyderabad. Singh welcomed HAL initiated indigenous development of Softnet Radio for Airborne Communication and Net Centric Warfare and congratulated the company for manufacturing high-end tech-instruments. SDR is based on open architecture with fully configurable software waveforms in L band and V/UHF band. The Radio development has been
completed with legacy waveforms and being integrated on airborne platforms. HAL’s SLRDC is a primary design centre of excellence for the development of state of the art, indigenous avionics which are installed on fixed wing and rotary wing aircraft like MiG 21, MiG 27, LCA, Jaguar, SU-30, MiG-29, Dornier, Cheetah, Chetak, ALH operated by the Indian Defence Forces. The type of avionics developed at SLRDC are Radio Communication systems, Navigation systems, Identification systems, Radar systems and Computers.
Boeing transfers 1st C-17 to Indian Air Force
The Indian Air Force (IAF) flew its first Boeing C-17 Globemaster III to India, becoming the newest operator of the leading airlifter. “The C-17 will equip the Indian Air Force with amongst the world’s most advanced humanitarian and strategic ca-
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pabilities,” said Air Vice Marshal SRK Nair, Assistant Chief of Air Staff Operations (Transport and Helicopters). “We have looked forward to this day when our Indian Air Force flies the first C-17 to its new home in India.” Boeing is on track to deliver four
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more C-17s to the IAF this year and five in 2014. Boeing has now delivered 254 C-17s, including 222 to the U.S. Air Force and a total of 32 C-17s to Australia, Canada, India, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom and the 12-member Strategic Airlift Capability initiative of NATO and Partnership for Peace nations. Boeing will support the IAF C-17 fleet through the Globemaster III Integrated Sustainment Program (GISP) Performance-Based Logistics contract. The GISP ‘virtual fleet’ arrangement ensures mission readiness by providing all C-17 customers access to an extensive support network for worldwide parts availability and economies of scale .
July 2013
DEF BIZ Fine Tubes expands its client base HAL Chairman Dr R K Tyagi and his team pose for a photo with Dassault Aviation Chairman and CEO Eric Trappier at the Paris Air Show.
HAL talks with Dassault and SAGEM During the Paris Air Show, top officials from Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) met with the executives of Dassault Aviation to review the progress on several projects that are in the pipeline. Both the teams expressed satisfaction about the work that has already been achieved and renewed their commitment towards successful completion of the various projects that are underway. Ever since HAL came into existence in 1964, the company has established 19 Production Units and 10 Research & Design Centres at eight locations across India. HAL has produced 15 types of aircraft and helicopters for the Indian Defence Forces and has collaborated with several international companies as well. At present, HAL and Dassault Aviation are working on the MRCA project for the IAF, in which 126 Dassault Rafale jets are to be purchased of which 18 will directly come
Saab receives order for AUV62 www.geopolitics.in
from France and the rest would be built by HAL under licence. HAL also entered into a contract during the Paris Air Show with SAGEM (Safran, France) for setting up of manufacturing and depot level maintenance facilities for Automatic Flight Control System (AFCS) LRUs (Line Replacement Units) including sensor at HAL, Hyderabad. The Transfer of Technology (ToT) will enable HAL-Hyderabad to in-house manufacture and provide depot level maintenance of AFCS LRUs for Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) and Intermediate Jet Trainer aircraft (IJT) platforms. The possibility of fitting AFCS LRUs on Light Combat Helicopters (LCH) and Light Utility Helicopter (LUH) platforms is being explored. The facilities at Hyderabad are expected to be established in two years to cater to the Indian customers. Saab has signed a contract on delivery of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle systems, AUV62. The order comprises the supply of AUV62, the latest version of the Autonomous Underwater Vehicle in a configuration as training target for Anti Submarine
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Fine Tubes is among the first Western suppliers to work with NPO Saturn on the Russian Sukhoi Superjet 100. It is working in partnership with other Western suppliers on this new aircraft design. The company fabricated and supplied 6000m of nickel alloy 625 and stainless steel 321 tubing for use in the production of the Russian Sukhoi Superjet 100’s SaM146 engine, developed by NPO Saturn. The SSJ100 is a new template of aircraft; the engine and airframe have been designed together to offer increased levels of economy, performance and environmental efficiency. Work began in 2000 to create a jet with significantly lower running costs than other commercial planes. This project has been a huge priority to the Russian and French governments since the beginning, aiming to provide ecologically responsible yet high performing engines for the commercial jet market. Sukhoi’s offering is aimed at not only the Russian market, but also intends to compete with Western commercial aircrafts.
Warfare (ASW) training. The AUV62 is an advanced and highly modern Autonomous Underwater Vehicle available in several different configurations and already selected by a number of customers. The AUV62 is an artificial acoustic target that mimics a submarine in a way that is compatible with any torpedo and sonar system on the market today. The AUV62 system fully replaces the use of a submarine in the role as a manoeuvring training target. Equipped with a Synthetic Aperture Sonar (SAS) payload it is an efficient system for Mine Search, Reconnaissance and Seabed Mapping.
July 2013
DEF BIZ Cassidian introduces Taqto 2 Cassidian has released a new version of its smart terminal management solution, Taqto. This tool allows intuitive management and configuration of secure TETRA radio communication devices, such as radio terminals and TETRA SIM smart cards. The new Taqto model enables device management over an IP network in which the central server is connected to multiple programming clients. Implementation of a central server workstation for device configuration, reduces time and operating costs. Taqto 2 improves the quality of device management by minimising the errors that may result from simple data entry mistakes. Finally, important and confidential communication which takes place within the decentralised device management networks is fully secured by Taqto application-level security mechanisms. Thus, device management information is managed and distributed safely and confidentially, not only in the device management database but also between the server and the various Taqto clients.
IAF inducts Pilatus PC 7 MKII The IAF’s premier academy located at Dundigal, Hyderabad witnessed the unveiling of Pilatus, PC 7 Mk II, by Minister of State for Defence Jitendra Singh. That formally inducted the aircraft into the service. Three PC-7 MK II aircraft were airborne led by Group Captain R S Nandedkar to put up a brief display for the audience. This marked the first formal flight of the Basic Trainer Aircraft over the skies at the Air Force Academy in Hyderabad. As part of its ongoing transformation, IAF is being equipped with cutting edge technology and state of the art aircraft and systems. However, the need to train pilots on modern trainers is crucial to prepare them for the exacting requirements of combat flying. With the unveiling of basic
training aircraft, IAF ushers in a new era, imparting high quality flying training to budding pilots to ensure proficient handling of sophisticated aircraft in demanding roles. The aircraft, with its excellent handling characteristics, user friendly onboard instrumentation and modern navigation systems, is ideally suited for IAF’s training requirements. The PC-7 MK II aircraft would be used for Basic Training of all pilots of the Indian Air Force, in addition to the pilots of the Indian Navy and the Coast Guard. Till now this role was performed by the reliable but ageing workhorse, the HJT-16 Kiran aircraft. A total of 75 aircraft have been contracted from Pilatus, Switzerland.
Need of self reliance in aero-engines Self-reliance in aero-engine is crucial to India and the aero-engine community within the country has to synergise to achieve this goal for the country. The enormous potential of aero engine market in India stands at `2,40,000 crore for military application in the next two decades. Indigenous design strength in aero-engine is a necessary to reap the benefits from this huge opportunity.
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July 2013
DEF BIZ RAD denies allegations of wrongdoing in India India-Thailand to collaborate in defence production Defence Minister AK Antony offered to discuss with Thailand’s possible areas of cooperation and collaboration in Defence production. During talks with his Thai counterpart, Air Chief Marshal Sukumpol Suwanatat in Bangkok, Antony said that India has, over the years, developed a well established defence industry which can meet varying requirements of the Thai Armed Forces and India would welcome the visit of Thai teams to various Defence production facilities. Antony also said conscious planning, hard work by our
scientists and support by the government is resulting in the growth of a strong defence industrial base in the country. The talks between the two ministers covered a wide range of issues including regional security concerns. Both countries have large stakes in the maintenance of peace and stability in the immediate neighbourhood and in the wider Asia Pacific region. Trade is dependent on the sea lanes. Hence, security of the sea lanes and freedom of navigation is critical to economic and overall security.
Cassidian introduces new 800 MHz TH1n The smallest ever TETRA terminal recently won the 2013 International TETRA Awards for the ‘Best TETRA Enterprise Product’. This new variant will complement the very successful 380-430 MHz model of the TH1n and enlarge Cassidian’s TETRA terminal portfolio in the 800 MHz radio frequency band, used in Asia
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and America. Since the TH1n is ideal for different users, it has opened up the TETRA market to those in new sectors, such as social workers and health care personnel. It addresses users who have the option of joining shared public safety networks, but so far haven’t found a model to suit their needs better than a heavy-duty radio targeted at fire fighters. Equipped with appropriate accessories, TH1n is suitable for covert use thanks to its thin, compact design. The ability to access and share data in the field is becoming increasingly important, and the TH1n delivers in this respect, enabling field operatives to perform data queries and send reports.
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Rheinmetall Air Defence AG (RAD), Zurich, strongly denied accusations of inappropriate business dealings with the Ganton group of companies and Abhishek Verma. Such allegations lack factual substance. RAD clarified that it made no illicit payments to Ganton or any of its representatives. To substantiate its position, RAD said, it is committed to a close dialogue with Indian authorities and ready to cooperate with them. It said it did not collaborate with Ganton in order to prevent an RAD blacklisting in India through illegal means. RAD says it is equally determined to prove that earlier allegations which had led to the company’s blacklisting in March 2012 are false. In the Delhi High Court, RAD is challenging the order debarring it from doing business with India’s Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) for ten years.
July 2013
DEF BIZ Atlas Elektronik’s India set-up to boost cooperation At the international showcase UDT Europe in Hamburg at the end of June, Atlas Elektronik presented the SeaHake mod4 heavy weight torpedo in real size. Also highlighted was the unmanned underwater vehicles SeaCat and SeaOtter MkII, as well as the famous Sea-Fox with COBRA attachment for efficient mine sweeping missions. The specialised event for Undersea Defence Technology is now well established. In India, the Germany-based Naval warfare solutions provider Atlas Elektronik GmbH established a 100 per cent Indian subsidiary to comply with the Defence Procurement Plan 2013 (DPP 2013) which focuses on indigenisation. Atlas Elektronik has been a supplier to Indian Navy since the 80s when the Shishumar Class submarines (Type 209/1500 submarine) were purchased from Germany’s submarine maker Howaldtswerke-Deutsche Werft (HDW). The company had supplied four command and weapon control suites for the project. Khalil Rahman, the CEO at Atlas Elektronik India, speaking to the press sometime ago, had stated that the company aimed to build strong ties with the Indian public and private sector. With its headquarters in New Delhi Atlas Elektronik India’s primary objective will be to intensify the existing partnership with the Indian
governmental customer and to initiate and expand cooperative ventures with Indian public and private industry. This would include the creation and fostering of relationships with the research and manufacturing facilities in the country. The company will deal with market research, analysis, supply chain management and will provide technical and logistical support to Indian customers and to the German parent company. Volker Paltzo, Managing Director of Atlas Elektronik, commented: “With India’s impressively dynamic economy and growing political influence, India is of key significance to Atlas and with our new subsidiary Atlas
Elektronik India, we wish to deepen this cooperation with the Indian client that has already been in place for many years.” Since 1980, Atlas Elektronik has worked closely with the Ministry of Defence and with the Indian Navy and Atlas Elektronik India sees itself as a long term and committed partner to the Indian Navy and its indigenisation needs. It is reported that the company has shown interest in the Kilo Class Submarine Towed Array Sonar upgrade, Active towed Array Torpedo Defence Systems for Naval ASW platforms and Hull Mounted Sonar and Variable Depth Sonar for the Anti Submarine Warfare Shallow Water Craft (ASW-SWC).
Ocean Thermal Energy and DCNS sign MoU Thermal Energy Plc (OTEplc) and DCNS have signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to jointly develop and build Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion (OTEC), Sea Water District Cooling (SDC) and Sea Water Air Conditioning (SWAC) systems for the selected markets. Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion is a process that generates green, renewable, constant and secure electricity from ocean water with the ability to produce that energy at a large scope and scale in the future. Potable clean water can also be generated from the OTEC process, which can be used for sustainable food production and human consumption. OTEplc, a UK based company will serve as the developer of OTEC and SDC Systems and will be self-financing the project. Under this
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MoU, DCNS will be the EPC (Engineering, Procurement, Construction) contractor for the OTEC and SDC Systems. The MoU also establishes a Joint marketing Council that will work on joint projects to be exclusively pursued. Technical and Marketing expertise will be shared on an exclusive basis for selected projects by both the companies. Two initial projects have been selected by both companies. The first project is for
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land based OTEC and SDC Systems for the US Virgin Islands (USVI). A second project is a floating OTEC system for Asia.
July 2013
g DEFBIZ
JIM DOLAN, Senior Vice President and General Manager of Overwatch Geospatial Solutions talks to Geopolitics about providing intelligence requirements to Indian security agencies and partnering with India-based companies On providing India with geospatial intelligence requirements
India is challenged by multiple widespectrum threats ranging from terrorists’ acts and smuggling of arms and narcotics, to a wide range of localised crime. These challenges are creating requirements for intelligence solutions at all levels. Instrumental among these requirements is implementation of systems that enable the collection of activities-based information and data such as imagery, full motion video, and other data collected by advanced surveillance and reconnaissance systems. Even more important than the collection of data is its use for
“We are positioned to address challenges faced by armed forces” solving problems. Utilised by more than 25,000 analysts across the globe, our software products do just that by incorporating intelligence analysis capabilities into day-to-day operations. Overwatch systems in use today provide both analysts and decision-makers with critical data fusion, exploitation and analysis tools that provide timely situational understanding with geospatial context. All of these tools are based on a pedigree of more than 20 years of deployment within military and security operations. We have developed an appreciation for India’s unique requirements, and
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understand that a one-size-fits-all approach will not work. Overwatch, in association with RSI Softech Private Limited, is positioned to supply a wide range of advanced, yet easy-to-use geospatial and intelligence analysis capabilities to address the challenges faced by Indian armed and paramilitary forces.
On integrated intelligence and opportunities for enhancements
Standards for data, software, and hardware are enabling ‘interoperability,’ but we should not confuse that with ‘integration.’ Integration means that multiple stimulus are coming together to produce
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a completely new, singular and highlypowerful realisation. Most of the intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems are building in ‘Multi-INT’ applications, tools and supporting functionality as intelligence, but I believe most of it is more interoperability than integration. Let’s not forget that the most critical part of intelligent integration happens in the mind of the analyst; enabling their reasoning process is a big focus. Overwatch’s flagship geospatial intelligence solutions are built on software designs that have roots in fundamental photo-interpretation, analytical photogrammetry, spectral analytics and scene
July 2013
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visualisation. Careful attention is placed on enabling the analytical process, while leaving the art of analysis up to the user. Part of doing this requires our software to remove as many time-consuming activities as possible for the analyst—for example, tools to reduce steps in searching and retrieving data, automating data input or report generation, and optimising often repeated functions such as scrolling in the image viewer. As needs for more timely and accurate information analysis expand, systems today must incorporate capabilities that enable an analyst to effectively ingest, correlate and integrate smart or self-aware multi-source data including imagery, video, sensor data and embedded metadata into their analysis and reasoning processes. These capabilities, in addition to understanding the user workflows, operational tempos and diversity of requirements, are incorporated into Overwatch’s solutions to drive how software and data are assembled to solve problems. The ‘integration’ of open source (social media, internet-based user generated content), human geography and socio-cultural behaviour, and Cyber intelligence, is the next wave of intelligence integration.
Footprints in Indian defence and homeland security solutions One thing that comes to mind is that Overwatch representatives have been working with Indian government organisations since the Mumbai attacks. During this time the company has come to understand India’s unique analysis pro-
cesses and requirements. As a strategic business of Textron Systems, a global leader in defence, homeland security and aerospace solutions, Overwatch is able to draw upon Textron Systems’ broad capabilities to fashion solutions and products tailored to fit the differing needs and budgets for India’s defence, security and intelligence sectors. Mindful of India’s broad homeland security needs, Textron Systems—through Textron India Private Ltd.—works closely on engineering and other business solutions with other Textron Systems businesses, as well as Textron’s Cessna and Bell Helicopter units. In tandem with key Indian business partners, the company is committed to supporting the needs of all of India’s security-related agencies, through adaptation and implementation of both American and Indian knowledge and expertise.
Partnership with India-based organisations and their role
Overwatch has partnered with RSI Softech (RSI), a Hyderabad-based company, to support the requirements of Indian defence agencies, para-military forces and other government agencies. RSI is a leading provider of geospatial hardware, software and related solutions. Working together, Overwatch and RSI are bringing cutting-edge technologies and far-reaching innovations to satisfy India’s emerging demands for reliable, affordable solutions in the areas of security and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. Recognising that India has pre-existing capabilities, Overwatch and RSI provide options via an integrated systems approach in which the solutions either integrate with or augment existing capabilities with more advanced systems. Overwatch capabilities may also be extended to fill gaps and requirements not fully served by pre-existing systems.
On benefits to national security agencies
SOFTWARE SKILLS: The V-TRAC extension is a complete motion video exploitation tool designed to provide analysts with the ability to capture and analyse live video streams
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Through application of the broad platform of systems and services available from Overwatch and RSI, India’s national security organisations may be better equipped to protect the nation and its citizens. Key among this broad set of solutions are Overwatch’s RemoteView and Global Image Viewer geospatial intelligence soft-
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ware products. This software provides a comprehensive range of capabilities, from high-powered aerial and satellite imagery exploitation and mapping tools for geospatial analysts, to image analysis tools for tactical users. These products are used throughout the globe in support of defence and intelligence agencies, and are recognised for their deep imagery exploitation capabilities, positioning accuracy and efficient workflows. Each product also offers expanded capabilities through extensions such as the RemoteView 3D Pro extension for generation of detailed 3D terrain and urban models. The GeoCatalog Workgroup extension provides analysts with a one source tool for cataloging, querying, management and access to imagery, maps, and full motion video files across a variety of geospatial and legacy data sources. India’s intelligence community also could benefit from IMPACT information analysis software. IMPACT is uniquely positioned to support the evolution of India’s security capabilities, including modernisation efforts encompassing security, police and national level intelligence. IMPACT enables analysts, intelligence teams and investigators to collaborate and more effectively manage and analyse information available from a variety of sources. Its wide range of data management and visual analysis tools allow users to proactively uncover, analyse and understand hidden connections, relationships, patterns and trends contained in huge amounts of disconnected information that underlie adversary, criminal or terrorist activities. With the growth of unmanned aircraft systems as essential resources for surveillance and reconnaissance, our V-TRAC software provides a complete video exploitation tool. Analysts can utilise V-TRAC for all phases of video analysis on a laptop computer. The integrated Video Player, Report Editor, and Image Editor tools automate and speed report creation. And by integrating V-TRAC with Remote View and GeoCatalog Workgroup, analysts are able to search archived UAS videos by location or time and then delve into mission sets to exploit useful information. These are among the proven products Overwatch and RSI have made available that could assist India’s national security agencies.
July 2013
NUMBERSGAME
1000 troops
`14 lakh
hand-held detectors
pushed in Due to the deadly Maoist attack on the Congress Parivartan rally in Chhattishgarh in May 2013, more than 1,000 security personnel have been pushed into the Maoist-infested Bastar region for a major offensive. In the recent attacks, heavily-armed Maoists ambushed a convoy in Chhattisgarh’s Bastar district and killed 27 people. Efforts are being made to nab the culprits who were involved and the
3 service
security personnel have got inputs about the Maoists and their whereabouts. According to top officials, so far 1000 security personnel have been deployed to tackle the Maoist menace in the region and if needed more security personnel can be
deployed. Meanwhile, a team of NIA (National Investigation Agency) has reached Raipur, Chhattishgarh, and has begun its investigation into the incident and would be helping the security personnel in knowing the behaviour and pattern of the Maoists.
3 countries
commands for no-war pact The Indian Armed Forces are now in the final stages of the plan for creation of a new Tri-Service Command that will able to handle space, cyber and special forces deployment during conventional as well as symmetric warfare in a unified manner. According to the report, Contours of the Cyber, Aerospace and Special Operations Commands (SOC), the formulation of the plan that has been going on for the past several months were in the final stages and the ‘formal joint plan’could be presented to the government.
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Afghanistan has proposed that India, Pakistan and Afghanistan should have a suitable mechanism in place to address each other’s concerns to maintain peace in the region. The proposed mechanism should also include a tripartite no-war pact among the three nations. Making it emphatically clear that the
relationship between India and Afghanistan should not be looked at from the angle of Pakistan, Afghanistan wants India, to intensify security and defence cooperation with Kabul. Afghan Ambassador to India Shaida M Abdali said that India and Afghanistan should sit together in the coming months to outline their concerns on security and defence cooperation in a tangible way. India, on other hand, has been providing off site military and law enforcement training to Afghan security personnel.
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With the growing threat of terrorism and frequent bomb blasts ripping through populated areas, which has cast a shadow on the security environment, scientists are working to develop a new state-of-the-art portable hand-held explosive detector which can scan luggage and packages in transit or during search operations. The price tag of one such device would be around `14 lakh. The project has been directly awarded by the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) and it involves four major scientific establishments: Central Scientific Instruments Organisation (CSIO), Institute of Microbial Technology (IMTECH), both based at Chandigarh, Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur, and Institute of Chemical Technology, Mumbai. Each laboratory will be responsible for developing a particular technology or component. At present, Indian security agencies have to purchase imported explosive detectors that are expensive. Success has been achieved at various levels by these establishments in developing the technology and components and the detector is expected to be ready for commercial production in a year’s time.
guards 550 for every VVIP Every VVIP that visits Naxal-affected districts in Maharashtra is guarded by 550 security personnel. Home Minister RR Patil of Maharashtra said, “In Maharashtra, whether it is a visit of
a member of human rights commission or a political leader, the security in Naxalaffected districts is always very high and a three-tier security is provided, using 550 personnel.”
July 2013
NUMBERSGAME
2015
New deadline for LCA As per reports, the indigenous fighter aircraft Tejas, which was due to get itsFinal Operational Clearance (FOC) by 2014, has been delayed by one more year due to a hard-nosed ``internal assessment’’ which has highlighted new problems in the aircraft. The single-engine Tejas project, which is already 30 years in the making, will not become fully combatworthy anytime before 2015 or 2016. As per reports, around a dozen of Tejas prototypes are barely flying due to problems in getting theInitial Operational Clearance (IOC)–II certificate and it is estimated that it will
take at least 18 months from IOC–II to get the certification for the aircraft. The Tejas (LCA) project, was first sanctioned in 1983 at a cost of `560 crore, to replace the ageing MiG-21s but during that time, the overall programme has cost around ` 25,000 crore. The IAF has so far ordered 20 Tejas in IOC–II configuration, which will incorporate GE–404 engines, and another 20 in FOC. As per current plans, IAF will order six Tejas Mark-II squadrons (16 to 18 jets each), with the more powerful GE F–414 engines, once the fighter is combatready.
As per reports, the high deployment of security personnel in Naxal-affected districts is an expensive affair and if a big state such as Maharashtra, which has just three Naxal-affected districts of Gadchiroli, Bhandara and Gondia, is finding it hard, one can imagine how difficult it must be financially for small states. The main hur- of informers who often dle in tackling the Naxals is provide inputs to Naxdue to the double crossing als as well.
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The Indian National Defence University (INDU) is all set to set up a fully autonomous institution, constituted under an act of Parliament at Binola near Gurgaon. The President of India will act as the visitor and the Defence Minister will be the Chancellor. The vice-chancellor of the university will carry the rank of President of INDU and will be an officer in the rank of the Army Commander or someone equivalent from the IAF or the Navy. The varsity would develop and promote higher education in defence studies, defence management, defence science and technology
4 at Binola Campus new defence colleges
and promote policyoriented research related to national defence. Four new colleges will come up at the varsity at its Binola Campus: National College of Defence Studies (NCDS), Indian Institute of Defence Technology (IIDT), Indian Institute of Defence
Management (IIDM) and Defence Institute of Distance & Open Learning (DIDOL). The varsity will also conduct courses of varying durations on subjects such as strategic studies, war gaming and simulation, counter insurgency and counter terrorism.
18 Su-30MKI 15 years gets 1st Airbase in for Indian Navy to grow South India
With multiple nuclear submarines, satellites, aircraft carriers and stealth warships in the pipeline, the Indian Navy has begun gearing up for its expansion with hundreds of technowarriors, who will operate these platforms. At present, the Navy is currently short of more than 2,000 officers and it plans to fill these posts with those holding B. Tech or MSc degrees. These officers would be more tech-savvy than the current ones. The first batch of 60 cadets, with B. Tech degrees is due to pass out from the Indian Naval Academy (INA) at Ezhimala. The batch will also include 44 MSc students as well.
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To boost its capabilities to protect its vast interests in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and to tackle any threat, India has set up of the first SU-30 MKI air base in Tamil Nadu. Incidentally, it is the first SU-30 MKI Air Force station in the southern part of the country. The air base was inaugurated by the Defence Minister, A K Antony. The current geo-political scenario and threat perception in the peninsular region and in the Indian Ocean region has made it mandatory for the IAF to base its SU- 30 MKI fighters in south India to help protect the island territories and sea lines of communication. A full squadron of 16 to 18 Su-30MKI combat aircraft will be deployed at the base by the end of 2017-18, which will give India the capability to keep a close vigil on the IOR.
July 2013
THE TRIAD AND CREDIBILITY India’s nuclear deterrence is based on the concept that if the country is attacked with nuclear weapons, its response will be massive through the nuclear warheads delivered from ground, aerial or submarine based platforms. This concept of triad has come under increasing scrutiny with regard to its credibility. Abhijit Iyer Mitra argues that more than ground and aerial legs, it is the submarine-based platforms that need to be given more emphasis in making the nuclear deterrence credible.
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ormer foreign secretary Shyam Saran’s speech on April 24, 2013, at the India International Centre titled,—“Is India’s Nuclear Deterrent Credible?” has certainly set the cat amongst the pigeons. Early indications suggest that the Pakistan see this statement as an official one. Whether official or not, it has certainly stoked debate around India’s nuclear doctrines positions, postures and forces. The very fact that someone of Saran’s calibre spoke on the subject was a big deal. On the other hand, he has added little in terms of actual transparency largely restating old positions. However, he gave clarity on one issue. Ever since India released the draft nuclear doctrine in August 1999, it has been subject to vicious criticism from inside and outside. Largely, it reflected the knee jerk recalcitrance and over-defensiveness of a country, which was heavily censured and sanctioned following the nuclear tests of 1998. The whole document was stripped of authority, just three months later by the then Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh claiming, “The National Security Advisory Board is a group of non-official strategic experts and analysts.” It was tasked by the National Security Council to prepare a number of papers, including one on a possible ‘Indian Nuclear Doctrine’. A detailed report was prepared and submitted to the National Security Adviser and was also released for a larger debate among the people of India. That debate is now under way. It is thus, not a policy document of the Government of India. Anecdotally, even K Subhramanyam (WHO IS HE?), had apparently dismissed the whole exercise as being a balancing act between irreconcilable parties who represented an incoherent cross-section of India’s strategic community.
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RISING HIGH: Test being conducted on “Prithvi Missile”, a intercontinental- nuclear capable ballistic missile
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ABSOLUTE POWER: The Mirage-2000C of the IAF, which can deliver nuclear weapons if needed
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UNDERWATER CAPABILITY: INS Arihant, the latest nuclear capable submarine of the Indian Navy which has inducted India in the Triad list
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From 1999 to 2003, therefore, India’s big credibility gap lay in the question: “Do we or do we not have a doctrine?” Consequently in 2003, the government issued a terse statement which by all intents and purposes resembled a doctrine. The issue however, was that the 1999 document, that had been co-authored by the big names of the Indian strategic thought and academic literature for a long time sought to perpetuate the myth that 1999, and not 2003, was the real doctrine—‘policy influence’ no matter how tenuous the only real currency of value in Delhi was. India’s second credibility gap then became, “Is the 1999 document or the press statement issued in 2003, the real doctrine?” This is one particular area where Shyam Saran’s speech, decisively settled the debate in favour of the 2003 document. But even this ideology, in due course, is being questioned, since, Saran is retired and he cannot be counted as an appropriate authority. The situation, as it stands, is still ambiguous for the simple reason that even though, it was meant to address the issue of credibility, the speech glossed over or ignored the key concepts of credibility and acted largely as political justification. Whatever it may be, we may start with a summary examination of the concept of credibility and then revisit the one aspect
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ON DISPLAY: Nuclear capable- Agni missile system being displayed on the eve of Republic Day
that in the author’s opinion needs further refinement in the light of the April 24 speech—“The Triad and its interplay with credibility.”
Credibility and numbers
In the broadest sense, the entire notion of deterrence is based on credibility—that a country has the knowledge to make the bomb, the bomb will explode, the delivery mechanism will function accordingly, the troops trained to carry out the task will do so flawlessly and most importantly, the leadership will be willing to “push the button”. Possibly, the best explanation of credibility was laid out in the 2006 White Paper titled, “The Future of the United Kingdom’s Nuclear Arsenal”, prepared jointly by the British Foreign and Commonwealth Office and the Ministry of Defence. The document has divided credibility into three constituent groups—“Human Credibility (does the country have the knowledge to produce the bombs, are its troops trained enough to carry out the strike rapidly and as desired?), Technological Credibility (do the bombs work, do the delivery systems work?), and Leadership Credibility (will the leadership take a stand to push the button?)”. This document is the operative arsenal of the UK and bears close scrutiny,
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Figure 1: The Credibility Of Deterrence deterrence
LEADERSHIP CREDIBILITY
TECHNOLOGY CREDIBILITY
HUMAN CREDIBILITY
since the numbers of the UK arsenal are of particular interest to India. From a peak of 520 warheads in the 1970s, the UK has now come down to approximately 160 warheads, and operationally deployed warheads at any given point of time will be 48 as per official notifications and submarines are allowed to carry 192 warheads (in terms of capacity). That number of 48 is quite possibly one of the lowest deployed totals outside of India and possibly North Korea. Since India cannot go the madman theory route that North Ko-
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The Nuclear Triad
In this speech, the former Foreign Secretary said: “But to claim that India does not have a credible theory about the use of nuclear weapons does not accord with facts”. Since January 4, 2003, when India adopted its nuclear doctrine formally at a meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS), it has moved to put in place, at a measured pace, a triad of land-based, air-based and submarine-based nuclear forces and delivery assets to conform to its declared doctrine of “no-first use and retaliation only”. This poses a problem, since it seems to link a triad specifically both with credibility but also with a second strike. Yet exploring the triad in relation to a second strike or credibility provides very different results as will be
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FUTURE PLATFORM: Indian Air Force is planning to incorporate nuclear capable “Brahmos” cruise missile on several SU-30 MKI platforms
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rea has chosen, the UK theory would seem a better option. Perfect deterrence, of course, is non-existent in the real world, however, from a purely logical perspective-the greater the credibility, greater is the deterrence (Figure 1). How do numbers fit in a credibilitybased definition of deterrence? Minimal (as opposed to minimum), is possibly a better term to use for India’s deterrence. Grammatically ‘minimal’ can only be a verb and would hence require qualification by other factors. The most important fact would then be ‘deterrence’. Minimality in this case is entirely dependent on credibility. It sets neither an upper or lower limit allowing for numerical fluctuation based on credibility. Credible-minimal, however, is not an esoteric concept but a finite number that is determined by two distinct possibilities—deterrence and the failure of deterrence. Successful deterrence determines the exact numbers that constitute credibility, while the possibility of failure of deterrence determines what constitutes minimal.
explained in the following passages.
Concept and Origins
The origins of a triad are closely linked to the need for a second strike capability. As envisaged during the Cold War, this meant a diversity of delivery systems mated to a diversity of delivery platforms, dispersed far and wide in order to survive a massive counterforce attack and then respond. In the military context, this was at a time when military victories were timeconsuming and expensive in terms of man and material. Technology was such that to hit one aim-point in Germany in the World War 2 era, close to 120 bombers carrying several tonnes of ammunition each were required. Today, one multirole fighter can take out anywhere between 6 to 15 aim-points and the acoustic suppression, which is a submarine’s greatest asset has progressed to such a point that
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when British and French SSBN’s collided in mid-ocean last year, the crews did not even realise what has happened till the physical damage to the hull started causing problems. Technology aside, warfare itself has fundamentally changed. Gone are the days of the Vietnam War where the Vietnamese Air and Land Forces took a heavy toll on the American Air Force. The “Top Gun Programme”, initiated in the wake of losses during the Vietnam War, now means that a technologically superior, well trained air force can win a war without using ground forces and losing at most one or two aircraft, as was seen during the Kosovo campaign. “Operation Desert Storm”, in 1991(in Iraq), was the most visible sign of the changed nature of warfare, which has since progressed far beyond the realm of the precision targeting videos beamed by CNN. India’s nuclear doctrine which came out in 1998 may or may not have factored in these changes while deciding on a triad structure, along with radically different diplomatic environment where the hostile post-Shakti environment have now turned into a de-facto recognition of the primacy of the Chinese threat and a de-jure recognition of India’s nuclear weapons programme. The reality, however, is that China is far ahead of India economically and in terms of actual defence spending and can sustain a disproportionately larger defence budget that India for quite some decades to come, cannot hope to match. This reality combined with the global realignment since 1998, and the rapidly changing nature of warfare, make it imperative to revisit the entire concept of a triad.
Theoretical Underpinnings of a Revision
India’s draft nuclear doctrine links the decision going in for a nuclear triad to “effectiveness, endurance, flexibility and responsiveness”. All these individual elements weigh into the larger concept of credibility, which for some reason is not treated as the overarching idea behind the deterrent but rather a sub-category used in the same breath as “survivability, effectiveness, safety and security”, as if these were separate issues. The concept of credibility is the fulcrum that defines and qualifies both the ‘minimum’ and the “deterrent” aspect of ‘credible minimum deterrence’. The determinants and dependants of credibility, therefore, have become the focal point of discussions re-
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Figure 2: current deployments and future developments Developed
AGNI-III AGNI-II AGNI
BRAHMOS
RANGE
BASING RANGE LEGEND (as per standard USAF range definitions) Intercontinental >5,500 km Intermediate 3,000 - 5500 km Medium 1000 - 3000 km Sort <1,000 km
AGNI-VI (?) AGNI-V AGNI-IV
K-4 K-15
SHAURYA PRAHAAR NIRBHAY
DCNS Scorpène SUBMARINE
Basig Legend Land Air Sea indian navy
FUTURE PROCUREMENT: Indian Forces are in the process of acquiring several nuclear capable platforms to increase India’s deterrence
DHANUSH PRITHIVI-III PRITHIVI-II PRITHIVI-I
NAME Under Development
garding the triad. Given that credibility, which defines the numeric value of ‘minimum’ it is equally important to note that the doctrine sees credibility as “dynamic concept related to the strategic environment, technological imperatives, and the needs of national security”. Fundamentally this pegs credibility, its dependants and determinants to an externally reactive environment. Overcoming the reactivity as far as possible, therefore, becomes critical in ensuring the longevity and continued relevance of credibility in the face of some future change of circumstances, i.e. maximising the deterrence value of investments in nuclear weapons and delivery systems for the longest possible time by making it as future proof as possible.
Current Forces and Developments
(Figure 2): Several trends emerge, which need to be factored in while re-examining the implications of a triad. • Developments on the range front: India is developing equal numbers of intercontinental and intermediate range missiles and is involved in developing short range missiles as well. • Significant range duplication and overlap exists across all classes of missiles that are being developed. • While the longer range missiles are unambiguously aimed at China, the development of such a vast array of
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short range missiles is surprising, given that the 2003, CCS statement and Shyam Saran’s speech talk of massive retaliation. The abundance of tactical missiles in the force mix, therefore, is surprising as it points more to a graded flexible response than it does massive retaliation.
The Determinants and Dependants of a Triad Technology
India, due to its increasingly pro-Western stance, has had access to significant quantities of high-end Western technology in terms of warheads and long range attack missiles, which is otherwise, virtually impossible to get. The transferability of Western hi-tech warheads, delivery systems and delivery platforms, designs and fabrications have been critical in creating and maintaining a technological edge over the two countries of immediate concern. Delivery platforms are, perhaps, the one aspect of the triad that can benefit significantly from technology transfers. Notably, the Air Force and the Navy, where advanced construction techniques are involved in the licence production of current purchases (MMRCA, PAK-FA and Scorpene) can migrate onto indigenous platforms. It must be noted that much of the leap in acoustic silencing seen on Soviet submarines starting in the 80s, was a direct result of the Japanese selling their high-precision milling equipment for the
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HY-80 steel in 1978. The tacit acceptance by the West of cross-migration of dual use technology will be the cornerstone to India’s attempts to offset China’s massive spending on R&D with far more demonstrable and commercially successful results than the Indian efforts. Communications systems, especially the thorny problem of communicating with submarines will, perhaps, be one of the most critical benefits of technology transfers —given some of the exciting new breakthroughs that have been achieved in this field. One application of technology will be specifically to the warheads in terms of miniaturisation. Cruise missiles, by virtue of their smaller diameter require significantly greater miniaturisation per kiloton yield, as opposed to the larger diameter ballistic missiles. On the other hand, one needs to examine if the same two stage warhead, which can be used on a Cruise missile with sufficient thermal shielding, be used in a re-entry vehicle for use on ballistic missiles – the miniaturising facilitating Multiple Independent Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs). With regards to delivery systems, while the miniaturisation required for a cruise missile may be more than for a ballistic missile, the latter represents a greater technological difficulty quotient, especially, when it is based on a submarine platform. Cruise missiles are also
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significantly more vulnerable to interception than ballistic missiles, as evidenced by the advances in the detection and interception of low-flying targets and the comparatively less successful attempts at intercepting ballistic missiles. The invulnerability of ballistic missiles is achieved through a combination of four separate techniques—penetration aids (penaids), a masked trajectory (such as a depressed quasi-ballistic one), high terminal velocity of the re-entry vehicle and terminal manoeuvring of that vehicle. Going by reports, trajectory masking and re-entry manoeuvrability are the areas where Indian efforts have succeeded. On the other hand, should China’s ABM defences currently based on the first generation S-300 clones, improve or the Russians facilitate a transfer of the S-400 and S-500 systems, then the terminal velocity of even a 5000 km range missile would be in doubt. Technology has also fundamentally changed the viability of several elements of the triad and associated concepts. Aircraft, for example, unless significant low visibility is achieved, will be vulnerable to MARCHING AHEAD: Prahaar Missile is equipped with Omni-Directional warheads and could be used for hitting both tactical and strategic targets
“In the next 20 years, BrahMos cannot be intercepted by an enemy,” says A Sivathanu Pillai, CEO and MD of BrahMos Aerospace.
interception. Moreover, precision weapons mean that airfields, always prime targets in any air campaign, will be the first to be taken out from standoff distances at the initiation of conventional hostilities. Whether these airstrips can survive repeated attacks and will be capable for a second strike, is a big question mark. India has neither the geographic expanse of the USSR nor the splendid isolation of the US to provide respite between the waves of conventional attack. Incapability to deal with Iraqi Transporter Erector Launchers (TELs) during Desert Storm in 1991, led to the refinement of rapid ground detection
capability, which are now migrating into increasingly smaller platforms, with the F-35s distributive aperture system able to detect ballistic launches 1800 kilometres away and cue unmanned assets closer to the launch site to perform boost phase intercepts.
Command Control and Communication Issues
The land and air-based legs of the triad are the easiest to communicate launch orders, given the current state of technology in the country, including satellite communication. Submarine communications on the other hand is a very different ball game where actual contact with the water is required, making such communications dependant on visible surface assets. Note must be taken of Chinese Anti- Satellite (ASAT) capabilities and the C3 logistics train is also an important factor. While land mobile TELs, require substantial support retinue in C3 terms, Submarines, as of now still require aircraft and surface ships to communicate orders, while aircraft entail the least cumbersome C3 structure. Conversely, both air and land legs represent a significant delegation of power fairly low down into the ranks. Aircraft in particular place a deterrent asset in the hands of just one or two pilots for the entire attack launch sequence from take-off to delivery. Land and submarine command chains by comparison provide opportunities for significant checks and balances in the command structure at the point of launch.
Perceptional Issues
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One important aspect of credibility other than operational is perceptional. First, India’s deterrence assets are viable, but perhaps more important is whether, a notoriously risk-averse leadership is actually willing to use these weapons should anything happen. To begin with, recent doubts about the reliability of the Shakti tests (in 1998) has been raised and spreading precious resources over a host of delivery systems, with the consequent delays in development and deployment not lending to perceptional credibility. Similarly, the need for a triad alone raises questions as to the Indian leadership’s confidence in any single delivery asset, given that Western countries are so confident in their technological prowess that two of them have discarded their land and air deterrence assets, while America
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Economic
Given that China’s foreign exchange reserves alone are three times the size of India’s entire economy, focus is needed in allocation of funds to assets that yield highest results with lowest vulnerabilities. The demonstrated determination to cull failing programmes and delinking these issues from ‘prestige’ in itself adds to perceptional credibility. An uncompromisingly professional approach also makes India’s deterrence more sustainable, adding inherently to its credibility. To be examined here in addition to
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exists to point to how such inter-service rivalry and turf battles have multiplied costs exponentially. India, especially given the economic disparity with China, needs to seriously think if it can afford such duplication and unrestricted interservice rivalry.
There are significant diplomatic advantages and disadvantages to each element of the triad, and giving up certain elements of the triad, can also bring certain advantages.
the technological issues discussed are the feasibility of funding different types of warheads (single or two stage), the costs of modifying them over a range of delivery systems across the three services, the costs of modifying different delivery systems to satisfy the needs of a triad and finally the practicability of modifying warheads, systems and platforms in several different permutations and combinations to produce a triad whose overall capabilities might be compromised by spreading financial and human resources thin. Also to be considered are the economic costs if safety and security measures in place should fail, not to mention the costs of safety and triplicate costs of security associated with a triad. Similarly the costs of maintaining three different types of C3, training, deployments and maintenance and the accompanying logistics trains need to be considered. The significant, Cold War is also notable here as literature LATEST DEVELOPMENT: K-15 Sagarika, a nuclearcapable, submarine based ballistic missile with a range of 700 km is under trial
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Tactical and Operational Issues
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too, is moving for an overwhelmingly naval force. Likewise, a civilian custody of nuclear assets in a static environment removed from the inherent mobility of the delivery systems, and their de-mated status in themselves, provide both a tempting target for first strike as well as the perception of mistrust between civil and military chains—which a first strike may seek to exacerbate in the communications breakdown resulting from a nuclear attack. As conceived, the triad envisages six different delivery systems, each of which are designed for mating with five different delivery platforms, in various permutations and combinations. One needs to gauge, if this reflects either confidence in any single delivery system, any single leg of the triad or indeed in the competence of the armed forces itself to execute a second strike. Given the instances of an inadequate stock taking system manifesting in the 1965 stalemate and again equipment shortages during the Kargil War, one needs to take a long hard look at, if such a plethora of attack options convey seriousness or hopeless confusion and bitter inter-service rivalry. Similarly, some essays have argued that India does not see the promptness of response as a priority but rather a second strike is assured irrespective of the timeframe. This, in itself, acts as a window to attract more than just one wave of first strikes before retaliation eventuates. Promptness of a response is critical in reducing damage to one-self and maximising the quantum of the threat presented to the other side.
The main tactical issues to be considered are both conceptual as well as operational. At a conceptual level, should one take projected Indian technological superiority as a granted and accept that ‘No First Use (NFU)’, as an unalterable pillar, then the entire logic of warheads mated to tactical ballistic missiles such as ‘the Prithvi’, needs to be reassessed. For that matter, given the advances in technology, the concepts of ‘flexibility and responsiveness’ mentioned in the current doctrine even needs to be re-examined. The fact that modern ICBMs and SLBMs are frequently touted as having circular error probability or Circle of Equal Probability (CEPs) of around 20 meters—more than adequate for a tactical strike—should also point at the dilution of the NFU to a certain extent. These technological advances mean that a long range missile is perfectly capable of flexibility and responsiveness. Concept of a ‘recallable deterrent’, also need to be revisited. Given the high probability of interception that aircraft are vulnerable to—especially when weighed down by the weapons load and auxiliary fuel tanks, is the flexibility of a ‘recallable deterrent’ worth the high attrition suffered by this means of delivery? The flexibility of a recallable deterrent also needs to be weighed in terms of timing. While a ballistic missile travelling at hypersonic speed would cover a certain distance between India and China within 20 minutes, the same path of a fighter, going by reports of the endurance expected by the Su-30, is around 13 hours. Moreover, the high attrition expected from high RCS assets like the Sukhoi, would be questioned, about how many of these planes need to be deployed for a high attrition strategic role, diverted from
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the battle space. Similarly, given the severe officer shortages in the army and the calibre of command required to head a nuclear strike unit, can talented officers and resources be spared for roles that other systems can perform more effectively? Airfields invariably are the first targets of conventional strikes and probably a nuclear counterforce first strike. In such conditions and given the extreme accuracy of modern weapons systems, does it make sense to retain air-launched deterrents? Similarly, the prevalence of ground surveillance assets like high resolution “Synthetic Aperture Radars (SARs)” found on systems like “the JSTARS”—developed specifically in response to the evasiveness of Iraqi TELs in the Desert Storm campaign or the Israeli TECHSAR satellite, that erode many of the arguments that are used to buttress the case for land mobile systems. At any rate, while a 5000km range IRBM would be able to launch strikes on the Chinese eastern seaboard from anywhere in India, this presents virtually the whole of India as a counterforce and countervalue target. Whether a democracy like India, can morally or legally use countervalue targets to camouflage counterforce targets, or for that matter use Army and Air Force units as counterforce bait, also needs to be considered. Moreover, India neither has the geographical expanse of the USSR, nor the splendid isolation of the USA. As a result, early warning is pushed to the limit and rapid dispersability which depends on the effectiveness of such early warning, is severely affected. Similarly, the entire logistics associated with air, road or rail mobile deterrents are prone to interception and disruption at several points—especially the fuel supply chain. While land-based deterrence assets possibly present the least technological challenges to master, they also carry with them the highest vulnerability, increasingly due to precision weaponry and sensor technology. Submarines, on the other hand, are perhaps the most complex deterrence solution in existence with the highest invulnerability quotient (by virtue of being silent and invisible). Submarines also compensate for range limitations of missiles being able to move closer to the intended target than the land-based missiles. The attack solutions a submarine provide, increases the avenues of attack requiring the spreading of anti-ballistic missile defences across a greater geo-
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graphic spread, thereby, either increasing the costs to the other side or reducing the effectiveness of the other side’s defences. As opposed to the other two legs of the triad which require modification or technological innovations to merit a response, SSBN deployments in themselves cause significant cost escalation for the target. Moreover, while China enjoys a significant numerical advantage over India in terms of aircraft and land forces, the USA remains the prime offshore balancer and the main maritime power. A submarinebased deterrent provides the opportunity to mask Indian submarines in a sphere of Western influence. While a submarine on patrol has the advantage of invisibility, it is important to remember that its home base will possibly be a magnet for the first counterforce
wave, but unlike aircraft, submarines stay out for prolonged periods on patrol, ensuring that 1/3rd to 2/3rd of the deterrent would survive. This, of course, also raises the questions of putting too many eggs in one basket, since each submarine would represent a considerable chunk of India’s deterrent.
Diplomatic issues
There are significant diplomatic advantages and disadvantages to each element of the triad, and giving up certain elements of the triad, can also bring certain advantages. Pakistan’s increasing urge, to push tactical nuclear weapons lower and lower down the command chain brings interesting opportunities for India to leverage its technological lead and impose costs on Pakistan. Accepting, Pakistani
India’s nuclear doctrine The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) met January 4, 2003 to review the progress in operationalising of India’s nuclear doctrine. The Committee decided that the following information, regarding the nuclear doctrine and operational arrangements governing India’s nuclear assets, should be shared with the public. 1. India’s nuclear doctrine can be summarized as follows: • Building and maintaining a credible minimum deterrent; • A posture of ‘No First Use’ nuclear weapons will only be used in retaliation against a nuclear attack on Indian territory or on Indian forces anywhere; • Nuclear retaliation to a first strike will be massive and designed to inflict unacceptable damage. • Nuclear retaliatory attacks can only be authorised by the civilian political leadership through the Nuclear Command Authority. • Non-use of nuclear weapons against non-nuclear weapon states; • However, in the event of a major attack against India, or Indian forces anywhere, by biological or chemical weapons, India will retain the option of retaliating with nuclear weapons; • A continuance of strict controls on export of nuclear and missile related materials and technologies, partici-
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pation in the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty negotiations, and continued observance of the moratorium on nuclear tests. • Continued commitment to the goal of a nuclear weapon free world, through global, verifiable and non-discriminatory nuclear disarmament. 2. The Nuclear Command Authority comprises a Political Council and an Executive Council. The Political Council is chaired by the Prime Minister. It is the sole body which can authorise the use of nuclear weapons. 3. The Executive Council is chaired by the National Security Advisor. It provides inputs for decision making by the Nuclear Command Authority and executes the directives given to it by the Political Council. 4. The CCS reviewed the existing command and control structures, the state of readiness, the targetting strategy for a retaliatory attack, and operating procedures for various stages of alert and launch. The Committee expressed satisfaction with the overall preparedness. The CCS approved the appointment of a Commander-in-Chief, Strategic Forces Command, to manage and administer all Strategic Forces. 5. The CCS also reviewed and approved the arrangements for alternate chains of command for retaliatory nuclear strikes in all eventualities.
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CBM proposals, which advocated the removal of tactical missiles, diplomatically pushes Pakistan on the back foot and has removed a dangerous option that may be used in the future to blunt a successful Indian penetration of Pakistani territory. In many ways, this would be similar to President Bush Senior’s proposals to the USSR, which proposed a massive reduction in the land based arsenal (in which the USSR had a massive advantage) while offering next to no cuts in the naval deterrent (in which the US had significant numerical superiority). In purely diplomatic terms, submarines offer a very focussed and versatile tool of coercion. Sending a submarine on a deterrence patrol into a certain area and informing the target government but maintaining a public silence invokes a certain silent menace that cannot be criticised publicly, since, it cannot be seen. On the other hand, should the protagonist choose to openly announce the presence of such submarine, should diplomacy so demand, the threat can be transformed into open coercion to suit requirements. Such, tactical deployments to suit diplomatic moves are unique to a submarine force, that neither the air or land leg of the triad can achieve. In many ways, given India’s pacifist rhetoric, using an SSBN in this way provides, India’s risk averse leaders a significant avenue of coercion, without resorting to force and without having to lose face.
Strategic Issues
Several long term strategic considerations also play into the composition of a triad.
World nuclear forces, 2013 Country Deployed Other Total warheads warheads Inventory USA 2 150 5 850 ~8 500 Russia 1 800 8 200 10 000 UK 160 65 225 France 290 10 ~300 China - 200 ~250 India - 90–100 90–110 Pakistan - 110–120 110–120 Israel - ~80 ~80 N Korea - - 8? All estimates are approximate and are as of January 2013, Source - SIPRI
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The credibility of the Indian deterrent cannot be doctrinally made dependant on a triad concept. A triad is an indication of either doctrinal/ structural inflexibility and/or a lack of confidence in one’s technological credibility.
provide the best interim option to hedge against future realignment. One also needs to play close attention to emerging nuclear rogues, and has to accept and factor in the reality that the lowering of the technological threshold will result in many more nuclear rogues than current. Taking a much more fatalistic view, should any leg of the triad prove redundant, one will have to consider the option of actually buttressing that leg as a magnet for a counterforce first strike, to minimise the intensity of attacks on the other legs/leg of the chosen deterrent mix, leaving aside moral and legal considerations, which must be kept out of the discussion, when analysing this point.
Safety and Security Issues Specifically, how will China and Pakistan respond to each element of the triad? While the two land based legs are more or less developed and the general Chinese and Pakistani responses are known, it remains to be seen, how an increase in the Indian SSBN fleet affects Chinese thinking of modernisation and expansion. Moreover, given that America primarily sees a naval role for India in the recessed alliance, it seems to be forming against China, what assets do each member of the alliance brings to the table, that can help India streamline its options and force China to maximise costs and minimise returns becomes very relevant. It is also necessary to consider, a world order that emerges say 30 to 40 years down the line when the predicted Indian ascendancy takes off and the re-alignment of this may bring about, should India play its cards badly. In such, a scenario the interoperability with western forces and migration of transferred technology to deterrence platforms may become a significant liability. The costs associated with a subsequent redirection of deterrence assets, therefore needs to be factored in and if possible to explore how versatile each leg of the triad is in coping with new political and technological realities. In a purely technical sense, the development of ballistic missiles or bombers with intercontinental range, will present far too direct a challenge to India’s current chosen peer group and may end up weakening ties. However a submarine based deterrent, which uses the submarines range to augment the missiles range, may
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Several safety and security issues will have to be considered, for each leg of the triad —the security of the chain of command from disassembled warhead to launch, in particular as well as the security and safety aspects of transferring such warhead through population concentrations. One also needs to consider, if the sophistication of a complete deterrence solution like a SSBN and the ability for checks and balances to be built into a naval launch can bypass the need for civilian custody of warheads. Similarly, should a leak of radioactive material happen, one needs to gauge the impact, it has on proximate population centres. While on a submarine, this is contained within the hull, on land the fallout will be much harder to contain. Lastly, should a missile fail on launch or be intercepted in the boost phase, the consequences of a fallback of a live warhead on Indian soil will also have to be looked into.
Conclusion
The credibility of the Indian deterrent cannot be doctrinally made dependant on a triad concept. A triad is an indication of either doctrinal/structural inflexibility and/or a lack of confidence in one’s technological credibility. Rather than structure determining doctrine and credibility, it is credibility that should be the prime determinant of structure, keeping in mind the sweeping changes in the nature of warfare and an environment which is much more favourable to India than in 1998. The author is a Programme Coordinator at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi
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design: ajay negi
geopolitics INTERNAL SECURITY
THE BLOODY BUSINESS
The Maoist menance needs to be tackled with an iron hand
IS b r i e f s
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Ineffective Drones
The expensive unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) deployed in Chhattisgarh proved ineffective in the region last month where State Congress president Nandkumar Patel
and his son Dinesh Patel were killed along with others in an audacious attack by Maoists. The drones or UAVs are sent to click images from the jungles of Chattisgarh.
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New UAV hub for anti-Maoist ops
However, lack of ground intelligence led to the gruesome attack as the drones did not fly in that region. Security forces remained unaware of a meeting held by Maoists’ east Bastar division committee in their Jeram jungle hideout around May 15 where the attack was planned. A senior security official believes that it is impossible to secure 100 km in that area with the available strength of forces on the ground. The absence of an escort vehicle and missing commandos from the convoy has raised fingers at the lax attitude of the state government.
Bhilai is all set to become the new Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) hub to be used for anti-Maoist operations in Chattisgarh. The move will strengthen the government’s response to the menace of Naxalism after the dreaded attack on Congress leaders in the region. The UAVs of the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) will be moved from Hyderabad to Bhilai as part of the efforts to step up technological
Maoists are terrorists
capabilities in the Maoist-hit areas. The government is also planning to give its nod to the NTRO to set up more UAV bases in the Naxalite-affected Central Indian Region and will bring all strategic UAVs under a single operational command-and-control. The IAF is also set to raise a new unit of MI-17 V5 helicopters in Nagpur that will provide logistical support in anti-Naxalite operations in Jagdalpur.
Cellphone towers for Red zone
After the deadly attack by Maoists in Chattisgarh that killed Congress leaders, Union Rural Development Minister Jairam Ramesh described Maoists as terrorists. He also expressed that the carnage would be a turning point in the battle against them. “Maoists should not be ‘romanticised’ as they are terrorists because they spread terror,” Jairam Ramesh said. The Minister, who has generally been soft against Maoists, lashed out at them, saying they had no faith in the Constitution, democracy or democratic institutions. Their ideology was not based on Maoism but on extortion.
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hemant rawat
internal security
The government has given its nod to the `3,046-crore project for installing mobile towers at 2,199 spots in nine states that comes under the ‘Red Zone’. Soon after an attack on Congress leaders by Maoists, this longstanding demand of the security forces in the ‘Red zone’ was cleared by the Cabinet. The security forces were facing a great problem with lack of phone connectivity in the dreaded jungles of the zone. The mobile towers will be put up around police stations and CRPF camps that will boost intelligence gathering and communication in these regions.
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July 2013
b r i e f s IS
internal security
R Chandrasekhar to head NTRO
The Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) has threatened to withdraw its more than 800 personnel of men securing Punjab and Haryana governments’ civil secretariat in Chandigarh if the state governments failed to pay its `45-crore dues within three months. The CISF has been providing security to the building since 1999 after taking over from ITBP. Inspector General (CISF headquarters) S B Singh after discussing the matter with Home Secretaries of both Haryana and Punjab has hinted of a pullout from August 31 if the dues were not paid by both the governments of Haryana and Punjab. According to CISF, Punjab’s dues are around `22 crore while Haryana owes around ` 23 crore from 2003 onwards.
Former telecom secretary R Chandrasekhar will be the new chairman of the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO), the country’s highly specialised technical intelligence-gathering agency that was set up in 2004. Chandrasekhar, an IAS officer of 1975 batch of Andhra Pradesh cadre, worked as telecom secretary till March 31 2013. He will hold the post for three years from the date of assumption of the charge or until further orders. This was the first time that an IAS officer has been appointed to head NTRO.
NCTC in deep freeze
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh lashed out at non-UPA parties for opposing the Centre’s counter-terrorism initiatives. The PM urged the states to rise above narrow political and ideological mindsets to meet the challenges of terrorism. Now, as the NCTC has been diluted to a great extent to accommodate the states’ reservations on some key propositions some CMs are still suspicious about the UPA’s intentions behind NCTC. The newlyelected Congress-led Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah also sounded a caution in his speech saying some safeguards were necessary before setting up the NCTC.
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pay up, says cisf to punjab and haryana
A laser beam may soon replace humans to dispose of unexploded ordnance or IEDs in India. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has developed a vehicle-mounted system that uses a highenergy laser to neutralise bombs. The device is called as the Laser Ordnance Disposal System (LORDS) and will be used for disposal of explo-
sive devices such as bombs, rockets, artillery shells mines and IEDs. The device will work from a distance by focussing laser energy on the munitions’ casing and heating it until the explosive filler ignites and starts to burn. The combustion of explosive charge will lead to a low-level detonation or deflagration of the explosive device. The device is presently undergoing evaluation trials.
drdo
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DRDO’s bomb disposal device
Shinde points a finger
HC quashes promotion rules
Union Home Minister Sushilkumar Shinde blamed Pakistan’s ISI for attempting to revive militancy in Punjab and other parts of the country. The Union Home Minister, in his speech at the Chief Ministers’ Conference, said that there had been some developments on the militancy front as the ISI was promoting insurgency in Punjab and in some other parts of the country. Shinde went on to say that a large quantity of arms and explosives, including RDX, managed to find its way into Punjab through the borders.
The Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) came up with its first 30-member all-woman commando squad. The women commandos have undergone training at Jodhpur Police Academy and comprises two officers. These have been trained in various aspects of hostile conditions like hostage crisis, terrorist attacks, high risk situations, suicidal attacks and providing additional security backup at special events. These 30 brave hearts has also achieved the tag of being the world’s first all-women paramilitary pipe band. It made its first public performance at the Kadarpur Group Centre of CRPF.
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crpf
CRPF’s squad of woman commandos
The Delhi High Court came down heavily on the decision of a separate cadre for women in the Central Reserve Police Force up to the rank of inspector citing the gender discrimination in the paramilitary force. The Court termed the separate cadre ‘unconstitutional’ and ‘violative of right to equality’. The Court order will benefit thousands of female personnel who are denied seniority on par with their male colleagues. The Court has also asked centre to come up with a fresh seniority list ‘irrespective of gender’ to be promoted to Assistant Commandants.
July 2013
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INTERNALSECURITY Dr Avinash Chander, the new Defence Research and Development Organisation chief, has promised that indigenous weapons and ammunitions are being specifically designed to tackle the growing Maoist menace in the country. Saurav Jha underlines the importance of the ongoing schemes in this regard
THE DRDO RESOLVE www.geopolitics.in
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CRPF
T
he Indian Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF), as the main paramilitary forces under the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), have been doing a lot of heavy hitting in the internal security domain for the past two decades. These years have made it clear that the CAPFs have to undergo shorter modernisation cyclesâ&#x20AC;&#x201D;given the varied and evolving tactic adopted by insurgents and terrorists operating within India. The modernisation process, however, must look to now leverage domestically-developed technology as a cost effective and smarter way to multiply force capability. The Maoists, with their recent strike on a cavalcade of senior Congress leaders in Chattisgarh, have shown that they are still game for mass ambush-shooter actions. For the security forces, however, the need to detect movements by Maoist teams remains an imperative as the episode has only further served to underline. The Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), Indiaâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;s largest CAPF which has been at the forefront of the anti-Maoist battle, needs all the help it can get from new Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR) technologies even as it builds a
July 2013
g Human Intelligence Network (HUMINT) in the forested areas of central India. In the past five years, a great deal of foreign equipment was sought to be imported for CAPFs in general and the CRPF in particular. Unfortunately, not all of it works as advertised in the trying conditions extant on the Indian insurgent trail. What is, instead required, is specific technology tailored to Indian conditions. Home grown equipment, however, often exhibit those peculiar considerations that make it suitable for use within India. Take the example of the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) by CRPF. At the moment, the CRPF is overwhelmingly dependent on just one Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) Heron UAV of Israeli origin operated by the National Technical Research Organisation (NTRO) for substantive surveillance flights over its areas of operation in the Maoist belt. Beyond the ludicrousness of operating just one MALE UAV to support the CRPF in oped based on General Staff Qualitative its anti-Maoist efforts, it seems that even Requirements (GSQR) issued by Indian this particular facility is not available on Army for battlefield surveillance and redemand due to red tape issues. connaissance purpose during day/night. The CRPF long realising the unsustainability of the situation, had been lookSystem has undergone user trials and ing for a remedy for quite some time till successfully evaluated by Indian Army some of its officials came across the Deunder extreme weather conditions.” Nisfence Research and Development Organhant, incidentally, has a top speed of 185 isation’s (DRDO) Nishant UAV at Aero Inkm/hr and is capable of undertaking misdia this year. CRPF officials found that the sions that span up to five hours. Nishant, if deployed in numbers, offered As it is, the CRPF is currently looking them much superior value than a single to procure up to 16 Nishant UAVs with or a few MALE UAVs and that too HAL being engaged in the production of all. Nishant will, howwithout the need to set up substantial ground-based inever, not be the first homeIn the first frastructure to support the grown UAV to be pressed decade of the 2000s, same. Additionally, they into service by CAPF. The DRDO set up a division learnt that DRDO was in a DRDO-developed Netra specifically dedicated position to deploy a couvertical take-off and lift ple of UAVs with immedimini-UAV is already in to the exploitation ate effect for operations service with the CRPF. and development of against the Maoists. Technologies for Low technologies for LIC The Nishant, afIntensity Conflict (LIC) operations ter all, was designed from have actually emerged as a the ground up to be a truckthrust area for DRDO. In the launched UAV with a low logistical first decade of the 2000s, DRDO set footprint so that it could be pressed into up a division specifically dedicated to the action quickly on India’s mountainous exploitation and development of technologies for LIC operations. One project unand wooded frontiers. That same capability will prove very valuable for the CRPF der this division holds forth the promise that also needs to operate from harsh terof being a true game changer for Indian rain in Central India and has to keep its CAPF’s involved in jungle warfare against static ground presence optimal. As DRDO Maoists and other insurgents. Under outlined in a communication to the CRPF Project ‘Divya Chakshu’, DRDO is developing ‘Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR) in February 2013: “Nishant was devel-
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DRDO
INTERNALSECURITY
NEW APPOINTMENT: Dr Avinash Chander, the new Defence Research and Development Organisation chief
to detect buried mines and IEDs, Through Wall Imaging Radar (TWIR), to detect and monitor the movement of human beings behind walls for counterterrorist/ hostage rescue operations; and Ground-Based Foliage Penetration Radar (GB-FPR), to detect moving men obscured by bushes, tall grass, fields, and vegetation.’ The GB-FPR, once proven in the field, will be especially useful in countering the greatest asset that the Maoists so far have: jungle cover. The Maoists’ ability to use jungle cover means that CAPFs on patrols have to constantly secure their own flanks from any ambush. GB-FPR will naturally make that effort simpler. Moreover, a UAV mounted FPR is also nearing deployment that could lead to a situation where the Maoists find it difficult to move around in large groups since they would run the risk of detection. This airborne FPR is likely to be carried out by DRDO’s own MALE UAV development: the Rustom-I. The CRPF, it seems, is currently looking to float global tenders for 10 MALE UAVs but depending on their experience with the Nishant they could decide to wait for the Rustom-I which is likely to head into production by 2014-15. Given the way Indian global ten-
July 2013
g INTERNALSECURITY
IAI
HEAVILY DEPENDENT: The UAVs on which Paramilitary Forces are dependent to conduct survelliance missions.
der procurements play out, the modernibrought in are so called active systems sation cycle will be much better served by and keep jamming until you turn them off opting for domestic equipment especially manually. A move forward would be the when they have the potential to confer induction of reactive systems mounted quite a few advantages. on patrol vehicles that ‘listen’ for incoming signals and diagnose if something is Servicing for instance, comes to mind out of the ordinary before jamimmediately. Moreover, a continuous improvement process ming it. An active system that is through feedback chanperpetually operating on paThe CAPF nelled to domestic develtrol is likely to make friendtoday are basically opers is also very much ly radio communications on the cards. Indeed, this rather difficult. DRDO’s engaged in gueris one of the ostensible LASTEC laboratory has rilla warfare against reasons for DRDO setalso developed a counterinsurgents with ting up the LIC division IED laser that deflagrates anyway. And of course, no IED’s in order to disable substantial foreign one can deny affordability. them. input Taking into account life cycle Now as the CAPF-ISR costs and the need to get timely and counter-IED effort ramps spares, indigenous so far outup, the focus is also on the wellweighs whatever apparent benefit buying being of the trooper. CAPFs commanders ‘global’ brings. often say that they lose more people to The counter-IED effort in particular malaria then they do to insurgent bullets. needs a concerted domestic push. Like Indeed, the need to keep mosquitoes at the GPR, new ‘reactive’ jamming technolbay in jungle terrain cannot be understatogies are also being pursued. Across the ed. What is worse, commercially available board, CAPFs are inducting various kinds mosquito repellents proved to be too conspicuous for use against the Maoists who of electronic countermeasure equipment could smell these in the forest. to counter radio and cellular mechanisms At the moment, new DRDO-develused for remotely triggering IEDs and oped odourless repellents are being isthese usually cover three primary frequency bands which are generally used sued. Simple developments such as this by insurgents. would make a world of difference. More However, most of the systems being involved products from DRDO for human
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systems include ‘sustenance tablets’ that greatly increase soldier endurance during ‘seek and destroy’ missions. In the works for the future are munitions that reduce collateral damage, a range of small unmanned ground vehicles (which are nearing the end of their test phase) and better armour. While many of these technologies were initiated at the behest of the army, it is not surprising that they are drawing the attention of the CAPF’s as well. The CAPF, today are basically engaged in guerrilla warfare against insurgents with substantial foreign input. When you look at CAPF budgets and responsibilities today, one immediately gets the sense that force multiplication is the need of the hour. And this force multiplication is available domestically. There is hardly any need to look for it elsewhere. Moreover, unlike the DRDO-Army relationship, the DRDO-CRPF one is not really afflicted by any historical baggage. Perhaps, adoption and use by civilian security operators will make DRDO products more attractive to a wider audience. Either way, whether it is the preparation for a two-front war or a two-anda-half front war with the ‘half ’ being fought by CAPFs against Maoists, there is no greater force multiplier than indigenisation itself.
July 2013
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The Last Thunder?
While the government continues to rely on the importance of both ‘security’ and “development” in dealing with the Maoists, it is worth remembering that ‘talks’ with a guerrilla organisation, whose sole motive is to uproot the democratic structure of the nation, can possibly take place only when the authorities place themselves in a position of strength, writes Uddipan Mukherjee
“
Dandakaranya is huge. The undivided Bastar district alone was larger than the state of Kerala. The railway line connecting Delhi to Hyderabad borders Dandakaranya on the west, while the sea, near Vishakhapatnam, flanks it on the east. The railway line connecting Kolkata and Mumbai near Rajnandgaon in Chhattisgarh marks out its border in the north.” How apt was Sonu—one of the protagonists of erstwhile BBC journalist Shubhranshu Choudhary’s composition, Let’s Call Him Vasu!. The very idea of creating today’s dreaded guerrilla zone at Dandakaranya was of Kondapalli Sitaramaiyyah’s, then leader of the Communist Party of India (Marxist-Leninist) People’s War. And as Choudhary describes the geography of 1,00,000 sq km ‘sprawl of
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trees, hills and treacherous paths…’, one is forced to acknowledge the hazardous terrain which so readily traps India’s security forces and of late, peaceful political marches. Ambushes are the order of the day—in fact, for days. However, the stealthy attack on the Parivartan Yatra of the Indian National Congress on May 25 was not only the most impactful in 2013—probably it was the most high-profile targeted attack after the assassination bids on erstwhile Chief Ministers of Andhra Pradesh and West Bengal. And as STRATFOR’s Scott Stewart had suggested in their security weekly a couple of years back in June 2011 that “if an assailant has a protectee’s schedule, it not only helps in planning an attack but it also greatly reduces the need of the assailant to conduct surveillance— and poten-
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tially expose himself to detection”, such an intelligence malfunction and information leakage turned out to be the two most decisive factors at Darbha Ghati, Jeeram Valley—again in Bastar! On that Day, 27 people, including Chhattisgarh Congress chief Nandkumar Patel, his son Dinesh, and anti-Maoist vigilante group leader Mahendra Karma, among with others were brutally butchered. Veteran leader and former Union Minister V C Shukla was badly injured and later on succumbed to the injuries. Over 30 rank and file of the Congress party had to fall prey to the carefully orchestrated ambush of the Communist Party of India—Maoist (CPI-M), for which the left ultras, later asked an apology in their official proclamation—too late, too little though.
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g INTERNALSECURITY
The Darbha Ghati incident was neither the first of its kind, nor will be the last. The Central Armed Police Forces (CAPF) have had to face brutal onslaughts and invariably taken unawares on many occasions—not always in the labyrinthine topography of Chhattisgarh, but at times in Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal— though the terrain was almost always the slippery area. Not only that, lack of ground intelligence and exposing their own selves to the guerrillas in the search operations against the Maoists had been lethal to the security personnel —let’s take the planting of IEDs inside the dead bodies of
Ganapathy, the General Secretary of the CPI-M, still has dreams of a Red Flag at the Red Fort. Or maybe, since he knows that those are dreams to be seen during the day, he needs to pull off something extravagant from time to time in order to maintain the espirit de corps of his guerrillas and sometimes, to buttress his own dreams. The Darbha Ghati mayhem needs to be viewed in that context. Apart from the obvious negatives, the positives that could be taken out of the gory bloodletting on May 25 would be the analytic that the CPI-M was definitely and still is under pressure—with its top brass either
peration manifested in diabolism when the demise of the octogenarian politician V C Shukla was justified by the spokesperson of the Dandakaranya Special Zonal Committee, Gudsa Usendi, on June 11, 2013. In their ‘press release’, the Maoists have attempted to paint their devilish actions with the colours of exploitation and deprivation—a bogey with which they have consistently tried to coerce the tribal people join their military dalams.
CAPF jawans in Latehar in January 2013 or may we just remember the April 2010 Dantewada massacre of 75 CAPF jawans. Or, for that matter, why fail to recollect the annihilation of 11 CAPF men at Lohardaga in Jharkhand in May 2011. Nevertheless, the Darbha Ghati event shook many structures—especially the corridors of authority—and the result is that two independent probes are on —one by a sitting judge of Chhattisgarh High Court, Justice Prashant Mishra and the other by the National Investigation Agency (NIA). A natural knee-jerk reaction could have been to send ‘more CAPF forces’ against the rebels—however, even though in a phase-wise manner the number of battalions need to be increased in Ground Zero—but that’s not the panacea for this woe.
incarcerated or eliminated. Its wings and branches had been pruned in Jharkhand, Bihar, Odisha and West Bengal. In fact, after the era of Mallojula Koteswara Rao alias Kishenji, West Bengal’s Jangalmahal region has had a long bout of serenity and silence. In such a backdrop, it may not be naïve to surmise that May 25 was an ‘act of desperation’ by the Maoists. However, in no way, we can infer that the Maoists are in their last stage or they could be eradicated easily now. However, it is probably hard to deny that Ganapathy and his party were hard pressed from all directions and they ‘had’ to prove their existence somehow. And nothing could have been bigger than Darbha - where their age-old animosity against Mahendra Karma was brought to an illogical fructification. Des-
two-pronged strategy to deal with the insurgency. The general principle works on the security-cum-development model. First, ‘clear’ the affected area and then ‘hold’ onto it and pump in development as fast as practicable—or may be, faster than normal bureaucratic processes function. As former Director General of the Central Reserve Police Forces (CRPF), K Vijay Kumar told at the Idea Exchange event hosted by Indian Express in January 2012: “Indian insurgencies need to be fought with security and development.” Taking the example of the antiMaoist operation in Saranda forests of Jharkhand’s West Singhbhum district, he also said in the same forum that “the security forces had pushed the door figuratively, by going in first. This had to be fol-
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Eradication or Negotiation?
A baffling situation no doubt and the Indian policy-makers have embarked on a
July 2013
g INTERNALSECURITY
lowed by immediate development in the to foment disaffection against the state region from the government”. structures and wean away the masses Kumar, of course, echoed Prime Minfrom the democratic moorings. ister Manmohan Singh who has always Another possibility which Ganapathy underlined this principle of “security and and his mates could have guessed was a development”. The strategy, however, timid reaction by the government so that does not exhibit much novelty as this has offer of talks may flow and they would renew and refresh in the meantime. been put into effective usage in Iraq and Let’s move on, but how? Afghanistan recently and moreover there • The CPI-M is still a non-conventionis nothing ‘new’ in the government’s experience regarding the Naxal/Maoist inal guerilla force and fighting an insurgency. It is a four-decade old problem. surgency in the strategic stalemate Though it subsided in the late 1970s, it phase. Thus, a full-fledged operation was dormant in the 1980s and 90s. employing the Armed Forces is still A freelance journalist Rana Bose, not on the cards of feasibility. somewhat inadvertently, lays down the • The CRPF needs to be trained in principle of conflict resolution. He concounter-insurgency warfare. More tributed an article in the anthology, War jungle warfare schools modelled on and Peace in Junglemahal, the title of the one at Kanker needs to be set up which was something like: “If You Want and are being done so. The disbanded Peace, You Must Go To War”—similar sencivil militia is gradually being incortiments had been propounded by Edward porated into regular police forces. Luttwak in Foreign Affairs magazine, In this manner, the irregular militia when the celebrated military strategist is obtaining a facade of legitimacy. wrote: ‘Give War a Chance’. However, and Local men with knowledge of the topography and dialect would surely quite correctly so, Bose goes on to clarify provide a fillip in counter-insurgency the military tactic inherent in his title: “… operations. You must actually wage war to a point of • Interestingly, Sunil Dasgupta in a advantage where a stalemate is reached Brookings publication, while discussand peace negotiations are inevitable.” ing on local alliances in counter-inSimply put, ‘talks’ with a guerrilla surgency operations, comments: organisation, whose sole motive • “Extant counterinis to uproot the democratic surgency theory, which is structures of the nation, sensitive to escalation can possibly take place Human intelligence control and accusaonly when the authorinetwork of the police has ties place themselves in tions of abuse of power, to be improved because a position of strength. does not highlight this After the Jhiram valfrankly brutal apit’s the local police ley murders, who is at proach that still allows which will be the base a position of strength? the government keep of the pillar of strength Analytically speaking their hands relatively against the Maoists and by gleaning onto the clean.” data of the past 2-3 years, • Further, CRPF could it may be safely commentimplement platoons, or ed that the government still may be squads so as to “fight holds onto that advantage, but the guerilla like a guerilla”. Finding targets is a challenge. Satellite iman outright clash at this moment could agery and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles be gorier. However, the government must are being used to zero in on the tarutilise the media coverage during this period and win the propaganda war—since gets. Area domination exercises must it would be utterly cumbersome for the follow proper Standard Operating Maoists to intellectually defend themProcedures, in order to avoid loss of selves after these mass murders. lives of the security forces. It could always be the case that Ga• Not only strength in terms of techninapathy and his Central Committee cal wherewithal or arms, the CAPF smashed the ace through the Darbha inpersonnel need to have constant mocident—expecting an all-out offensive— tivational and psychological boosts— which in turn would be utilised by them more so in the wake of reports of high
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suicide rates and attrition factor. Empowerment of the adivasis must continue as a parallel course, for instance, revenue-sharing with the adivasis by the corporate bodies and the proper implementation of the Forest Rights Act 2006. The administration needs to act as a facilitator in this regard. Some corporate houses have taken positive steps. Like the Tata Steel has called for social infrastructure development in the Maoist areas. Already, ITC has served the peasant community by introducing agri-marketing through Information Technology (the e-choupal scheme) • Surgical strikes against top leaders of the Maoists need to continue. Such a policy will lead them to ideological bankruptcy. By all probability, personnel from the Greyhound force can ‘coach’ the provincial police forces and the CAPF. • Human intelligence network of the police has to be improved because it’s the local police which will be the base of the pillar of strength against the Maoists. The CAPF will provide the raw power, but the local police stations must come up with the vital nutrients—in this case, intelligence aka precise information and at the same time, conserving one’s own. But, the key has to be ‘mixing’ with the population and ‘winning’ them from the ultras. • Finally, seeds of dissension may be attempted to be sown amongst the Maoists; that is, try for a de-merger of CPI-M into MCC and PWG wings. A case in point is the bloody internecine skirmish going on in Jharkhand, between the Tritiya Prastuti Committee and the CPI-M. The way forward may not be smooth —both for the administration as well as the ultras and more so the masses—whom Mao Tse-tung so fascinatingly termed the ‘water’. Meticulous planning, a unity of purpose and clinical execution may very well combine so that the original Spring Thunder could as well be the last.
•
The author is an IOFS officer under OFB, Ministry of Defence, GoI. Any opinion expressed in this article is solely that of the author and in no way reflects the official position of the Govt. of India.
July 2013
a new friendship ahead India and Australia have decided to start a new chapter of deepening strategic interactions in their relationship
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Iran’s newly elected President Hassan Rowhani, also known as the brigade-builder has brought new surge of hopes for Iran and its souring relations with West. Rowhani became the new President of Islamic Republic of Iran by gaining nearly 51 per cent of vote, eliminating the need for a runoff by
replacing former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Rowhani is considered as a moderate man by the west as back in 2003, he had put the nuclear programme on pause to pave the way for talks with the West. At his first news conference since his victory in Friday’s election, Hasan Rowhani said his victory would herald a “new
Obama’s new ambassador to the UN
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President Barack Obama has selected a Pulitzer Prize-winning author and academician Samantha Power as his nominee for US ambassador to the United Nations. In 2008, Power called Hillary Clinton—at the time a political rival of Obama—’a monster’. Power replaces current ambassador Susan Rice at the United Nations. A former White House aide and Harvard professor, Power is a strong advocate
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for human rights at a time when the Obama administration is grappling with its response to the civil war in Syria as well as human rights issues in countries such as China and Sudan. She also won the Pulitzer Prize for her book, A Problem from Hell: America and the Age of Genocide, a study of US policy responses to genocide during the 20th century. Power caused a stir with her ‘monster’ remark during the tense contest between Obama and Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination in the 2008 election. She was serving as an adviser to Obama at that time. Those words prompted her resignation from Obama’s campaign team. Obama edged Clinton for the Democratic nomination, won the election that November and named Clinton as his top diplomat, a post she held until earlier this year.
era,” and vowed to “follow the path of moderation and justice, not extremism.” He also decried international sanctions against Iran over Tehran’s nuclear programme, saying the Iranian people did nothing to deserve sanctions he characterised as “brutal” to his people and “detrimental” to the West as well. President Barack Obama has welcomed the new President of Iran and termed Iran’s election of a moderate as its next president is a sign that Iranians want to move in a different direction, but he was uncertain whether it would lead to a breakthrough over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Italy’s new reforms
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Prime Minister Enrico Letta named a committee of 35 academics to propose changes to Italy’s Constitution aimed at fixing an institutional apparatus that has been blamed for years of unproductive and unstable governments. The Committee for Constitutional Reform will try to broker an agreement among the left-right coalition government whose first weeks in office have been marred by simmering tensions over tax policy, immigration and the legal problems of centre-right leader Silvio Berlusconi. When Letta took office in April he had said constitutional reform and an overhaul of a dysfunctional electoral system were major priorities alongside tackling Italy’s
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Iran’s brigade-builder Hassan Rowhani Susan Rice as NSA to Obama
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US President Barack Obama chose confidante Susan Rice as his new national security adviser, increasing White House control over foreign policy and defying Republican critics. Rice will play a major role in defending Obama’s foreign policy. Obama came under fire at home for his approach to the Syria crisis. Rice will take over from Donilon in July as the official who coordinates US foreign policy from the White House. Obama will avoid a Congressional fight, though, because the post does not require Senate confirmation. Rice’s appointment has angered Republicans who criticised her role in the handling of the attack on a US diplomatic compound in Benghazi, Libya that killed four Americans, including US Ambassador Christopher Stevens. Rice is part of the original team that won Obama the election in 2008. longest post-war recession and surging youth unemployment. He said the constitutional reforms should be approved within 18 months at most and is expected to propose measures to reduce the number of lawmakers, downsize Italy’s bloated political apparatus and change voting rules.
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suspect Tamerlan Tsarnaev spent the first half of 2012, is the main focus of an insurgency by fighters who want to found an Islamic state in Russia’s Caucasus Mountains. By taking down one of his own most feared local strongmen, Putin has made clear that the Kremlin still calls the shots. But he also risks creating a power vacuum, which could prod militants to go on the offensive and gangsters to go to war over turf, less than a year before Russia hosts the winter Olympics on the other side of the mountains. The big fear in the mainly Muslim region is that a mafiastyle battle will now erupt over the business and political interests Amirov controlled.
Hamid Karzai’s daring act
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security talks with Washington and threatened to pull his High Peace Council out of the Qatar process, in anger that he had been tricked by both America and the Taliban. The Afghan President, though a ruler of a poor country is not afraid to let his views be known.
WEF
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The Afghan President suspended talks with the United States on a new security deal for keeping his government out of initial peace talks with Taliban to end a decade long war. This has hampered the peace talks even before it could begin. For Karzai and his government, the raising of the Taliban’s white flag and a name plate saying the office represented the “Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan” in Doha, broke assurances of the Afghan government. Karzai cancelled
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A commando raid to detain the man who ran Russia’s most violent big city is one of the boldest gambles in years by President Vladimir Putin to assert control over Dagestan, a region spiralling into organised crime and Islamist insurgency. The mayor of Dagestan’s capital Makhachkala for 15 years, Said Amirov was so powerful—and the Kremlin so determined to show its own muscle—that Special Forces from Moscow were sent to arrest him with helicopters and armoured personnel carriers. Dagestan, in the spotlight as the place where the Boston Marathon bombing
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Putin gambles by taking down Dagestan israel’s 2002 Arab peace PAKISTAN’S plan NEW FACE
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has hinted at a readiness to consider a 2002 Arab peace plan whose terms were recently softened to include possible land swaps between Israel and the Palestinians. Netanyahu has ruled out a return to pre-1967 war frontiers, calling them indefensible. Arab states appeared to soften the 2002 plan when Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister, said Israel and the Palestinians could trade land rather than conform exactly to the 1967 lines. In his address to the Parliament, Netanyahu called on Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to return unconditionally to peace talks that collapsed in 2010 over continued Israeli settlement building on occupied land.
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Newly-elected Pakistan Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has called for an end to US drone strikes aimed at militants which many view as a breach of Pakistan’s sovereignty. Ousted in a bloodless military coup in 1999, Sharif won enough seats in the May 11 general elections for his Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party to operate without a coalition. His government faces a range of challenges including increased militancy, sectarian violence, chronic power shortages, a nearcollapsed economy, strained relations with key ally Washington and the task of building ties with arch rival India. “This daily business of drones has to stop immediately,” he told Parliament. “Other countries must respect our sovereignty and address our concerns.”
Merkel and dual citizenship
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The German government blocked legislation that could have granted dual citizenship to hundreds of thousands of immigrants even though it is trying to recruit skilled foreigners to alleviate a labour shortage. The left-wing opposition accused Chancellor Angela Merkel’s coalition of holding an antiquated world view and anti-Turkish sentiment
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verging on racism, setting up immigration as a campaign issue before a federal election in September. The bills would have had most effect on German residents of Turkish origin. Giving them dual citizenship, will create parallel societies and giving Turkey undue political leverage over Germany. The country does not allow anyone to hold two citizenships permanently although there are exceptions, such as for citizens from other EU countries and Switzerland.
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DIPLOMACY
Asia’s strategic
tri∆ngle
In the natural scheme of things, China, India and Japan are the three pillars of the Asian century, just as Germany, Britain and France were of Europe in the past century. But there are sharp differences among the three Asian powers and their rise is interlinked with each other. How well they can control their disputes and not allow that to derail the relationship will determine their individual and collective growth, writes Ajay Singh
T
he month of May was quite a momentous one for Indian foreign affairs. For starters, the new Chinese Premier Li Keqiang visited Delhi—his first overseas destination—and offered ‘A handshake across the Himalayas’. The visit coming so soon after the Depsang incident, helped in some way to put Indo-
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China relations back on an even keel— even though the outcome was more symbolic than tangible. Almost immediately, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh flew to Japan, China’s major rival in the region, and there gave his assent to an Indo-Pacific strategic partnership between the new nations. These meetings, independent in themselves, but still connected,
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could help change the equations between Asia’s three most powerful nations. In the natural scheme of things, China, India and Japan are the three pillars of the Asian century, just as Germany, Britain and France were of Europe in the past century. Just as Germany’s rapid rise and aggressive nationalism drew the other powers closer, so does China’s bel-
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remain, but though this issue shows little forward movement, the two nations have moved together in a number of areas of global and regional significance. At the heart of India-Chinese relations lie their economic linkages. An annual trade of $66 billion—projected to be $100 billion by 2015—which is vital for the faltering economies of both nations. These economic ties themselves have strategic significance. Premier Li emphasised that India and China are ‘strategic allies’ and need to develop ‘strategic mutual trust’. Working together for economic growth will develop the strategic bonds between the two nations and lead to a convergence on issues such as global warming, Afghanistan and regional terrorism. Yet, for it to be a relationship between equals, the existing imbalances have to be corrected. The $66 billion trade is skewed heavily in China’s favour in a 40:26 proportion. China must open its market for Indian finished products and allow greater access for our IT and Pharma industries to
sang incident has had a positive fall-out in more ways than one. It helped provide impetus to stalled, behind-schedule border infrastructure projects. It also urged the government to give the nod to raise a Mountain Strike Corps, a long-standing Army demand. This `62,000 crore project will make two mountain divisions, two independent infantry and armoured brigades available for offensive operations along the Indo-Tibetan border and help redress the disparity of forces to a great measure. Perhaps, the Depsang incident also helped India enter into closer strategic ties with Japan. The visit by Dr Manmohan Singh soon after Premier Li’s visit to Delhi had raised Chinese eyebrows and brought oblique hints that it should be cancelled so as not to hurt Chinese sensibilities. Yet, not only was the visit conducted as scheduled, but it was also instrumental in carrying Indo-Japanese ties to a new level. Though Premier Li’s India journey had largely symbolic connotations, this visit
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ligerence draw India and Japan together to balance the scales. In the strategic triangle formed by Asia’s major powers, India is the fulcrum which can provide the equilibrium for a stable power equation in the region. The three nations actually depend on each other to compete and cooperate. China is, of course, miles ahead in the race for regional dominance—the only nations strong enough to contend with it being India and Japan. With both, China shares a relationship weighed down by the burden of history. With both, it is intertwined economically. It has territorial disputes with both which every now and then threaten to get out of control. Economically, China is the second largest trading partner for both India and Japan, but strategically China’s assertions, whether in Ladakh and Arunachal Pradesh or in the China Seas clash with both their interests. It is but natural that the two nations would turn to each other to balance China’s growing influence. Per-
CONTROVERSIAL ISLANDS: The Senkaku Islands located in the East China Sea are in a dispute between China and Japan, (right) Chinese vessels patrolling the islands
haps, what we are seeing right now is a rebalancing of Asia’s strategic equations. The recent intrusion in Depsang, though minor in itself, brought to the fore the major bone of contention in Indo-China relations. Though it passed off quite satisfactorily in the end, it highlighted the vexed border issue again. This underlying tension in Indo-China ties will
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redress the balance. Militarily, the gap that exists now must be made up as a guarantee for continual peace on the border. We are almost two decades behind in the development of infrastructure in the border areas and will forever play catchup. In terms of deployability of troops in the Tibet region, the Chinese outnumber us by almost three to one. Yet the Dep-
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actually set the foundation for a strategic relationship between India and Japan that can be a foil to aggressive Chinese nationalism. Here Prime Minister Manmohan Singh gave his endorsement for an Indo-Pacific strategic partnership with Japan, an idea first articulated in 2007 and then placed in cold storage thereafter. The two Asian powers with shared values
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MILITARY PARTNERSHIP: India will get 15 Shinmaywa US-12 amphibious sea-planes from Japan and will be the first complete military sale by it after the World War.
of democracy, human rights and freedom agreed to come together in “a common quest for stability and peace in the vast region that is washed by the Pacific and the Indian Oceans”. This partnership, if vigorously pursued, can balance Chinese influence in the region and extend Indian influence right up to the Indo-Pacific rim.
The Strategic Triangle
The three powers of Asia, which constitute the second, the third and the fourth largest economies of the world and account for over a third of the world’s GDP, have much in common—and even more to differ about. For one, all three nations are grappling with a faltering economy (though by world standards their rate of growth is still quite high). All three are facing a wave of nationalism and with the gradual decline of the USA; all three seek to redefine their role in world affairs. (India’s political logjam is slowly diluting its image as a major player). All three actually need to move together in regional affairs, but none can overcome the historical sense of distrust. China can never forget the Japanese occupation during the World War and the atrocities committed then. India can never overlook the Chinese betrayal of 1962.
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China, of course, is miles ahead of its Asian rivals. In its own eyes, it sees itself matched by none in the region and only by the US as a world power. In their scheme of things, regional dominance is but a natural step towards super-powerdom. Yet, India and Japan moving in strategic tandem can match China’s ambitions, since these clash with their common interests. Its economy has slowed to a sedate 7.4 per cent (India’s has dropped to 5 per cent, Japan has inched up to 3.4 per cent) but it is riding a crest of nationalism that increasingly demands great power status. In pursuing its vision of historical greatness it has pushed its claims to territories beyond its borders. In its east and south, it has not relinquished its claims to Arunachal Pradesh and Ladakh. To its west, its claims are even more grandiose. It eyes over one million square kilometres of the East and South China Sea, claiming islands from Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia and Brunei. These claims have virtually brought it to blows with Japan over the Senkaku Islands or Diaoyu as they call it, with Vietnam over the Spratly Islands, the Philippines over Scarborough Shoal and with a host of smaller neighbours. These claims reflect more than just a
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Shinmaywa
DIPLOMACY
historical legacy. They reveal an expansion of their ‘core interests’, away from the traditional areas of Taiwan, Tibet and Xinjiang, towards the South China Sea. In pursuance of their ‘core interests’ in Tibet and the China Sea, their strategic interests clash with that of India and Japan. The area of Ladakh, which it claims more vociferously now, helps provide depth to its arteries towards Afghanistan and Central Asia. The islands that it claims in the South and East China Seas will expand its Economic Zone by over a million square kilometres and provide it access to over $3 trillion of maritime and mineral wealth. It will also give strategic control over the lines of communication to the Far East. As it pushes its claims in Ladakh in the east, it encroaches on Indian territory. In the west, towards the China Sea, its expansionism brings it in confrontation with Japan. China’s long-term strategic and economic interests lie in expanding its areas of influence. India and Japan’s lie in preventing this expansion. The conflict and convergence of interests determine the relationship between the three Asian powers. While both China and India have been on an upward trajectory for the past two decades—though the trajectory has
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slipped somewhat—it is Japan that is acoffered 15 Shinmaywa US-12 amphibious tually redefining its future course and trysea-planes for sale to India. If finalised, it ing to recover its position. In two wasted will represent the first complete military decades, growth rate plummeted from sale by Japan after the World War and 10.5 per cent to 1.5 per cent. The present reflects a shift from the pacifist thinking GDP has just climbed to 1991 levels. Its that was part of its foreign policy. national debt is 240 per cent of its annual For many years, India had been cautious about any alliance that could be GDP. Intense political turmoil has seen six seen as being overtly anti-China. It had Prime Ministers in seven years and there not responded to US overtures following is an increasing sense of political and economic drift. Yet, with the arrival of Prime their famous ‘Pivot to Asia’ and had even Minister Shinzo Abe on a secure manpulled out of the Malabar joint naval exerdate, the nation finally seems to be comcises. Yet it would be more open to regioning into its own. Perhaps, the Chinese exal alliances with Japan and other regional pansionism and its assertiveness over the powers that seek a strategic embrace to Senkaku Islands has served as a wakeup counter China’s exertions. We can well become the focal point of regional alliances call. For the first time after the World War, with Vietnam, the Philippines, Singapore, Japan has raised the slogan of ‘Fukoka Malaysia and Thailand who share simiKyohe,’ or ‘enrich the country, strengthen lar concerns. For these nations, the idea the army’. There are calls for the development of a standing army inof a regional grouping centered stead of just a self-defence around India-Japan may be force. There is also a feelmore acceptable than the ing that it is time for the presence of an extra reIn the strategic gional power. In fact, nation to move away it is likely that even from the sentiment triangle formed the strategic ambit of war-time guilt among the three of Indo-Japanese coand towards independent security operation could be major powers of Asia, policies away from further enhanced. US protectionism. Prime Minister Abe India forms the hub to In its new vision for hopes to bring India determine the balitself, India emerges into a ‘Democratic Security Diamond’ with as its most natural ance of power USA and Australia which ally in the region and would encompass the enits most dependable partner, closer than the USA and tire maritime region extending in the long term, even more vital. across the Indian Ocean right up to Prime Minister Abe himself articulated, the Pacific. “In another decade, Japan-India ties will The growing closeness between India and Japan has ruffled feathers on overtake Japan-USA ties in importance.” the Chinese side. Chinese media lashed This new thinking was visible during out at the Japanese overtures, calling on the Indo-Japan meet at Tokyo. After years India to “deal with ties in a calm way, unof stone-walling, Japan finally agreed to disturbed by internal and international support India to become a full member of provocateurs”. While India and China can the Nuclear Suppliers Group. This will not work together, both of course, will follow only help nuclear fuel come in for India’s their independent paths. China will conreactors, but will open up opportunities tinue developing and supporting Pakifor Japanese firms. Economically too, the stan, even at the expense of Indian inter‘China effect’, the targeting of Japanese ests. India too, can develop its own ties firms in China during the Senkaku Islands face-off has cooled the prospects of even with powers considered inimical to Japanese investments in China. Instead, China. Even though China shares stronger economic ties with India, Pakistan is Japanese firms are now diverting their attention to India as a safer investment desstrategically the more vital ally. Similarly, tination. Japan today is the second largest though India is economically more interlinked with China, Japan is the more vital, investor in China and the tenth largest in long-term strategic ally. India. Increased inflows will help revitalise both our economies. In another sigEventually, the relationship between nificance of Japanese friendship is that it the three nations hinges on their eco-
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nomic interests. And much of it lies in their quest for energy security. The need to ensure that its energy lanes are secure has led China to pursue its claims in the strategically-located islands in the China Sea and enhance its presence in the Indian Ocean. These same sea lanes also carry oil and trade to India and Japan. China’s dependence on this route will reduce once Gwadar is fully functional and road links to the Karakoram Highway, which will carry the goods over land into China, are in place. The road will also provide access to Afghanistan and Central Asia and will increase the strategic significance of Aksai Chin over which the road traverses. Yet, at the same time it will continue to vie for enhanced control of the sea lines upon which its economy is dependent. As China seeks greater dominance over the sea lines of communication, India and Japan can ensure that they remain open and unfettered as per international maritime law. The tussle between the three powers will continue, but the common good lies in a spirit of cooperation, not confrontation. And if the balance of power is not tilted heavily to any one side, mutual cooperation is likely to be greater and the possibilities of confrontation much reduced. That is why Indo-Japanese relationship will have even greater significance. In spite of the differences between the three Asian powers, their rise is interlinked with each other. How well they can control their disputes and not allow it to derail the relationship will determine their individual and collective growth. Eventually, economic interests will determine the nature of the relationship. Premier Li called the commercial relationship to be of “strategic interest to India and China” and termed India as a ‘strategic partner in business’. Even with Japan, our strategic closeness is based on preserving our economic interests. Japan and China too, have a thriving commercial relationship which could well be the basis of strategic cooperation. And to maintain economic interests, there has to be strategic balance. In the strategic triangle formed between the three major powers of Asia, India forms the hub to determine the balance of power. We can use this position to ensure that our own economic and strategic interests are preserved in the changing contours of the Asian century. The writer is an author and strategic analyst
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ADFMEDIA
Given the fact that India and Australia had more divergences than commonalities in their world views until recently, it is a welcome move that the two countries have decided now to have a strategic partnership in the Indo-Pacific region, the arc of maritime Asia extending from India through Southeast Asia to Northeast Asia and Australasia. But there are limitations as well to this budding relationship, thanks to the China-factor, writes Souresh Roy
Australia-India
strategic partnership
A
K Antony’s visit to Australia in June 2013—the first such official visit by an Indian Defence Minister—marks an important event in the evolution of Australia-India relations. It also points to a growing recognition in both Canberra and New Delhi about the importance of bilateral security cooperation between the two countries in a rapidly-changing geostrategic landscape. During his two-day visit, Antony and his Australian counterpart, Stephen Smith, both ‘acknowledged deepening strategic and defence cooperation between Australia and India. They (also) agreed to continue to contribute to the peace, stability and prosperity of the Asia-Pacific region and to promote cooperation in the Indian Ocean region’. The
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most tangible outcome was the agreement to have an annual practical naval exercise between the two countries which does demonstrate, at least on paper, that both Australia and India are serious about a more in-depth strategic relationship. In order to decipher the actual potential of those agreements and whether the written words will transform into reality, one needs to first put in place the context in which such agreements are being made. Also, it would be prudent to examine the drivers and constraints of this relationship so that we do not end up overstating the case. But before coming to the current strategic and security environments both Australia and India find themselves in, and the prospects of this security cooperation, a brief history of the bilateral re-
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lations between the two countries is due.
Divergent Pasts
In spite of the many commonalities between the two democracies, India and Australia followed two different trajectories in the post-war era. Most of the times both were content in their respective strategic spheres but when their paths crossed, they found themselves in opposite camps. During the Cold War, while Australia found itself firmly locked in an alliance with the United States and carried out expeditions in Korea and Vietnam in order to further its security interests, India detested such alliance behaviour, and preferred to limit the role of the Great Powers in its neighbourhood and was one of the main proponents of the Non-Aligned
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ues to fester, China is trying to expand its naval fleet in the Indian Ocean which will be in direct confrontation to India’s interest in the region. India’s rise as a regional power and with a blue water navy at its disposal in the coming years has led many to believe that India will play a significant role not only in the Indian Ocean but also in the Pacific. It is in line with this viewpoint that states like Australia expect India to be a new security partner in the Asian Pacific region. In recent times, strategists have increasingly emphasised on the new geo-strategic term ‘Indo-Pacific’, which is essentially the arc of maritime Asia extending from India through Southeast Asia to Northeast Asia. The recently-released Australian Defence White Paper 2013 states that Australia officially has a new region - the ‘Indo-Pacific’-- which is a strategic arc ‘connecting the Indian and Pacific Oceans through Southeast Asia’. The White Paper also sets out a ‘stable Indo-Pacific’ as one of Australia’s core strategic interests and the ability to respond to any military contingency in this region as one of the principal tasks of its defence forces. This paradigm shift in strategic thinking in Australia towards the Indian Ocean with its “Look West” policy STRENGTHENING TIES: Former Australian Prime Minister Jullia Gillard meeting her counterpart Manmohan Singh during her 2012 visit to India pib
Movement. Australia’s perceived ‘tilt’ tocially in the security domain? The global wards Pakistan in its South Asia Policy shift of power and wealth to Asia has led caused further estrangement between the many to call the 21st century as the Asian two countries. century. The increasing global clout of In the post-Cold War era, with the countries like China and India, their defence capabilities and influence in multiUnited States emerging as the sole superpower, Australia was comfortable to relateral institutions proves that this power new its security commitment through the transition is for real. As is the case with the ANZUS (Australia-New Zealand-US) alliinternational system, such moments of ance. Following closely on the footsteps flux induce uncertainty about the future of the United States, it also became one of of the world order and states tend to take the most vocal supporters of nuclear disrequisite steps either to insure, hedge or armament and non-proliferation agenda. balance against those future uncertainties. The convergence of Indian and AusThis activist zeal on Australia’s part would tralian interests resulting in increased biprove to be the single most important reason that inhibited cooperation with India lateral security cooperation is an outcome even when the bipolar world was a thing of precisely that global reality. of the past. Canberra’s decision to recall There are a substantial number of its military attaché to New Delhi after the overlapping concerns that have coalesced Pokhran nuclear tests of 1998 was seen at this particular moment of uncertainty by the Indian establishment as well as and driven home the point both in New the general public as an extreme reaction Delhi as well as Canberra that China’s which was uncalled for. rise may not be a peaceful one. The belligerence displayed by China in 2010 Given the tortuous history, any kind with regard to its maritime jurisdiction of a security cooperation or strategic partnership between the two countries over the South China Sea and the needs to start from a clean slate rate at which it is modernizing and be devoid of exaggerated its defence capabilities has expectations. Australia and caused real anxiety in not The recently India do not have tradionly these two capitals but released Australian tions of institutionalised also among China’s other Defence White Pamechanisms of security neighbours like Vietnam per 2013 states that cooperation from which and Cambodia. While the Australia officially has a they can draw sustenance long-standing boundary new region—the ‘Indoto chart its future course dispute with India continPacific’... of action. It is this very lack of shared history in the domain of security relationship that might have prompted the two Defence Ministers, when they met this time, to agree to collaborate in areas like shared military history, as in the Gallipoli campaign (in Turkey during World War I) where Australians and Indians fought together. The burden of history can be heavy but the only way to ameliorate that load is by presenting an alternative narrative which is positive and optimistic. It is heartening to see that the establishment on both the sides have turned their attention towards the virtues of history to anticipate a common future.
Present Context
If the past has been a constraint in forging a meaningful partnership between the two countries, what are the drivers that have forced them to come together and explore avenues of cooperation espe-
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has been complimented by an equally fervent “Look East” policy by India. The aim of the “Look East” policy was to increase India’s economic and diplomatic presence in South-east Asia. Both the countries’ motive is to address the same set of strategic concerns in the region. By adding a maritime dimension to its external strategy, India has made its intentions very clear that it is unwilling to get tied down in South Asia and wants to play a larger role in the Indo Pacific. While on the diplomatic front greater trade and economic relations with its Eastern neighbours are the key to such a policy, the force projection is carried out with the help of Andaman and Nicobar Tri-services Command and the Eastern Fleet. Similarly, considering China’s increased maritime capabilities, Australia plans to upgrade and expand its Naval forces including doubling the size of their submarines by 2030.
Japan, India and the United States in April. Four months later, the annual Malabar naval exercises were expanded to involve the navies of United States, India, Japan, Australia and Singapore. China’s negative reaction to both the proposal and the naval exercises by sending formal diplomatic demarches to the countries involved in the proposed Quadrilateral Initiative sent home a strong message that such multilateral groupings are untenable and these perceived ‘containment’ strategies have to be replaced with some other measures. It is no surprise that in recent times the United States has been much more comfortable with mini-lateral arrangements. The Indo-US relationship, which has been gaining in momentum, since 2005 also made it easier for Australia to do business with India. This led to a Joint Declaration on Security Cooperation, signed in 2009 when the then Prime Minister Kevin Rudd visited New Delhi. Even though Way Forward nothing path-breaking came out of the So what kind of an impact will an Austradeclaration, it did show the growing stralia-India strategic partnership expected tegic importance of India as a rising power to have on the region? If the recent past for Australia. But, Australia had a ban on is any indicator, it can be safely said that uranium sales to India because it was not the shadow of China looms large over this an NPT signatory and it still continued relationship in multifaceted ways. While with the restriction even after India was apprehensions about China’s rise have led granted an NSG waiver. It was only in December 2011 that present Prime Minister the two countries to initiate certain steps Julia Gillard overturned this ban in the right direction, China is also in principle and paved the way the reason that stifles this security relationship between for a smoother cooperation A bilateral security the two democracies from between the two countries. relationship can go a maturing to its optimum Many had argued that this long way in as far as potential. At the heart of was the single most discooperation in areas concerting issue between it lies the differing outlook towards the logic Australia and India, but such as law-enof distribution of power now that it has been reforcement, maritime solved, nothing can stop a and complex interdepenpolicing, counterdencies. But before getting full-fledged strategic partterrorism... nership involving elaborate into those dynamics, let’s just security cooperation in the briefly recount what has transpired in the past few years. Indo-Pacific. Diplomatic relations between AustraSuch euphoria, however, may be mislia and India reached its nadir after the placed considering the harsher realities nuclear tests of 1998. It was not until 2000 that bedevil the relationship. The issues when Prime Minister John Howard visited involved here have got to do with not only India that bilateral ties returned to some dealing with a rising power like China and semblance of normalcy. In 2006, the two devising strategies to deal with the changing international system. It has also got to countries concluded a Memorandum of do with differing attitudes and worldviews Understanding on Defence Cooperation. towards the utility of force and efficacy of The Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s alliance systems. proposed Quadrilateral Initiative involving Japan, United States, Australia and InThe early demise of the Quadrilateral dia in 2007 was soon followed by the firstInitiative as well as the premature burial ever trilateral naval exercises between of the ‘Asia Pivot’ by the US has dem-
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onstrated the fallacy of trying to either contain or dominate China. Therefore, to expect that an Australia India security partnership can do that task is bordering on empty optimism. Moreover, while due to decades of socialisation into an alliance system, Australia has developed habits of cooperation, India has been traditionally resistant to any kind of alliance building. This normative gap is bound to throw up its own contradictions within the security relationship between the two countries. Also, even though Australia is under the US’ security umbrella, its views towards China is ambivalent and this indecisiveness is not going to get resolved anytime soon considering the strong trading relations between the two countries. That, however, does not mean that an Australia-India strategic partnership is bereft of any potential. A bilateral security relationship can go a long way in as far as cooperation in areas such as law-enforcement, maritime policing, counter-terrorism, counter-piracy and Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) are concerned. One of the most important tasks of such a cooperative framework will be to make sure that the Sea Lines of Communications (SLOCs) are open, freedom of navigation ensured and international legal treaties are adhered to. Australia will be hosting the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium in Perth in 2014 where the two countries can further explore common areas of cooperation. Lastly, India being the chair of the Indian Ocean Rim Association for Regional Cooperation (IOR-ARC) this year and Australia being the next chair, the two countries can jointly prepare a road map of the future challenges for the region and implement policies to tackle them. An Australia-India strategic partnership is a welcome development for the whole of the Indo-Pacific. However, we should not delude ourselves into believing that such a partnership can overcome the structural realities of power differentials in the region vis-a-vis China which will be the most important factor impinging on the success of such a cooperative mechanism. Heightened euphoria or despondence needs to make way for a stance that is sanguine and sceptical in equal measures. The author is a researcher based at the Australia India Institute, University of Melbourne.
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O
n May 10, 2013, the DMK President M Karunanidhi, moved a petition in the Supreme Court seeking to declare that the India—Sri Lanka Agreements of June 1974 and March 1976 which established the maritime boundary between the two countries, as unconstitutional since by virtue
concerned, its case was based on the fact that the island was part of the Zamindari of the Raja of Ramnad, that on the abolition of Zamindari under the Zamindari Abolition Act, came under the erstwhile State of Madras now Chennai, and hence formed a part of the territories of the Union of India. This is not the first petition of its kind
the fishing rights of the Tamil fishermen restored, since the two agreements denied them access to the waters around the island that provided them a rich catch. Their frequent transgression of the maritime boundary—wittingly or unwittingly—often invites punitive action from the Sri Lankan Navy, sometimes even involving loss of life. The other traditional rights of Tamil fish-
island of
INDIA
TAMIL NADU
KATCHATHEEVU ISLAND
trouble With the domestic politics of Tamil Nadu increasingly casting a shadow on the bilateral relations with Sri Lanka, regaining Indian sovereignty over the Katchatheevu island, which is governed by Sri Lanka, will be a tough job, says Avtar Singh Bhasin
SRI LANKA
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the controversial chapter: The disputed Katchatheevu Island which lies between Indian and Sri Lankan coast
of these agreements the island of Katchatheevu had fallen on the adverse side of the boundary. The fact that the two agreements were not accompanied by the Constitutional Amendment, since there was cession of territory, they should be declared ‘as void and unconstitutional’, as quoted in the petition. There are records and documents from both the sides to support each party’s case on the island. As far as India is
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in the Supreme Court. Earlier in 2008, Jayalalithaa, then in the Opposition had filed a similar petition in the Supreme Court. In September 2012, Jayalalithaa moved the Supreme Court for expeditious hearing of the case. The present petition is the result of the competitive politics in the State of Tamil Nadu where the two Dravadian parties have indulged in the game of one-upmanship. The heart of the petition seeks to get
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ermen in the Island of Katchatheevu, involve the right to access for rest, dry their nets, worship in Saint Antony’s Church and participate in the festivals taking place on the island. These traditional rights are specifically protected in the June 28, 1974 Agreement (Vide Articles 5 and 6), though these were temporarily suspended during the ethnic conflict to prevent the LTTE from using the waters in the Gulf of Manaar for their terrorist activities and smuggling of strategically important
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g supplies like fuel, arms and ammunition. It may be recalled that on July 23, 1974, soon after signing of the 1974 agreement, the then External Affairs Minister Swaran Singh made a statement in the Lok Sabha about the agreement. There were protests from the members, particularly from the Tamil Nadu members, Sezhiyan, Manoharan, and Thevar who accused the government of ‘surrendering of territory’, and called the agreement “anti-national and unpatriotic”, and staged a walkout. The then Parliament Member Atal Behari Vajpayee asked the Speaker for a ruling “whether the Government without amending the Constitution (can) give a part of Indian territory to another country?” The Speaker, however, did not give any ruling on this point. In the statement the External Affairs Minister said: “I wish to remind the Hon’ble members that in concluding this Agreement the rights of fishing, pilgrimage and navigation, which both sides have enjoyed in the past, have been fully safeguarded for the future.” This assurance in the statement on ‘fishing’ was in conflict with Article 4, which inter alia said, “Each country shall have sovereignty and exclusive jurisdiction and control over the waters, the islands, the continental shelf and the sub-soil thereof, falling on its own side of the aforesaid boundary”. The exclusive control of each country on the resources, ‘whether living or non-living’ on its side of the boundary was further amplified in the March 1976 agreement, while defining the boundary in the Gulf of Manaar. In the face of these cast-iron provisions, the assurance extended by the then External Affairs Minister on ‘fishing’ was misplaced and caused a lot of confusion in the minds of the fishermen who continued fishing in the waters around Katchatheevu and invited punitive action from the Sri Lankan Navy, thereby creating complications in the relations between the two countries. While the Dravadian parties indeed had been protesting against the agreements involving the cession of island from the very beginning, none of them actually cared to challenge the agreements in court when they were signed, as happened in the case of the Berubari enclave vis-à-vis Bangladesh. In the Berubari case, it was after the Supreme Court’s ruling that the necessary Constitutional Amendment was carried out, and the government, in this case too, should have followed the same practice but failed
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to do so. Since the parties were simply content to protest, the government was quite happy to avoid the Parliament over this issue. On March 14, 1985, in the Rajya Sabha, Jayalalithaa, questioned the expenditure on the defence (forces) and stated since “we do not utilise the military might to provide protection to our own citizens, the fisherEXCHANGING GESTURE: The handing men of Rameshwaram”, over of Indian fishermen to the Indian what was the purpose of authorities by the Sri Lankan Navy this expenditure? On August 15, 1991, Jayalalithaa as Chief Minister of Tami ference, adopted yet another resolution, Nadu in her Independence Day message also aimed at calling for abrogation of delivered from the ramparts of Fort St. the two agreements, which were not supGeorge, demanded the retrieval of the ported by any constitutional amendment island, and declared that “I take a pledge and hence asked the Indian Government to retrieve a part of our land on this Independence Day”. On October 3, 1991, to retrieve the Katchatheevu island. Since the Tamil Nadu Assembly unanimously the TESO was a DMK-dominated body, adopted a Resolution demanding that the the AIADMK, on May 3, in an attempt to Government of India take urgent steps outdo its rival asked the State Legislature for retrieving the Katchatheevu island to adopt yet another resolution, asking and the adjacent sea from Sri Lanka. Of the Government of India for the retrieval course, this time she advocated a concilof the Katchatheevu island again on the iatory approach and asked for opening of ground of lack of constitutional backing. negotiations with Colombo for the return The present petition of the DMK is essentially the outcome of the competitive poliof the island because Sri Lanka had failed tics of the two Dravidian parties. to honour the 1974 and 1976 Agreements. Already the domestic politics of Tamil On August 16, 1995, New Delhi, for the Nadu has cast a shadow on the bilateral first time, unambiguously defined the traditional rights of the Indian fishermen in relations with Sri Lanka, on the question terms of the 1974 Agreement. Answering of human rights and killings of Tamils in a question in the Rajya Sabha, it was said, Sri Lanka. Would it be of any use for the that while the traditional rights included government to rake up the old issue after access for resting, drying of nets and atalmost four decades? As the island is altending the annual St. Anthony’s festival, ready in the effective control of Sri Lanka, “these traditional rights, however, do not what would be the impact of a judgement of the court, were it to declare the include the right to fish in and around agreement not in conformity with the Katchatheevu”. provisions of the Constitution? No forDespite these protests, it was not eign country can be expected to give up until 2008 that AIADMK Supremo Jayalalithaa decided to move to the Supreme the advantage it had gained, just because Court, where her petition to declare the a court in our country has declared the two agreements as void, was pending. In agreement ‘void and unconstitutional’, as June 2012, the Tamil Nadu Legislative Asquoted in the DMK petition or in the earsembly adopted a resolution, asking the lier petition of 2008. Revenue Department to implead itself The writer is a retired Director, Historical Diviin the case filed by the Chief Minister in sion of the Ministry of External Affairs and au2008 and called upon the Government of thor of (i) India in Sri Lanka: between Lion and India to impose economic sanctions on the Tigers and (ii) India–Sri Lanka Relations Sri Lanka. In April 2013, the Tamil Eelam Support Organisation (TESO), at its conand Sri Lanka’s Ethnic Conflict (Five Volumes).
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ongoing war: Such common scenario can be seen all across the Syria due to the civil war
Israel Enters the Syrian Quagmire By intervening in Syria, Israel might have pleased some of its traditional enemies, but in the process it has annoyed Russia which can be a huge political risk, writes P R Kumaraswamy
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srael is increasingly being drawn into the uncertain consequences of the Syrian civil war. For many, the beleaguered Bashar al-Assad is better than the jihadist alternative. An unnamed Israeli intelligence officer quoted in The Times of London, which was subsequently denied by the Israel Defence Force spokesperson, aptly sums up the general Israeli preference: “Better the devil we know than the demons we can only imagine, if Syria falls into chaos and the extremist from across the Arab world gain a foothold there.” This was seen in a contrast to some of the hasty Israeli remarks in the dy-
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ing days of the Hosni Mubarak regime in Egypt when it faced millions of protesters in Tahrir Square. Despite the long list of Israeli complaints, Anwar Sadat’s successor kept the core principles of the Camp David Accords and maintained the Cold Peace. For Israel, the Islamists who were in the forefront of the anti-Israeli rhetoric were dangerous. Israeli sympathies not only compromised the beleaguered leader but also exhibited its misreading of the unfolding events in Egypt. Israel got it wrong on Egypt. Partly because of this and partly because of the differing interests, Israel chose to remain in the margin ever since
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popular protests began in Syria in 2011. For once, Syria is not Egypt and Bashar al-Assad is not Mubarak. Of course, HafizBashar the father-son duo, kept the Syrian-Israeli border quiet since 1973. Not a shot was fired and no one infiltrated into the Israel-occupied Golan Heights as Syria had proxies to threaten its southern neighbour. For over three decades Hezbollah did that job and kept Israel busy. This eventually forced Israel to unilaterally pull out of Lebanon 18 years after its invasion. Moreover, since the Madrid conference of 1991, Damascus functioned as headquarter for the Hamas leadershipin-exile. So, Assad is not Mubarak, to be
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is an Islamist-led government with unpredictable consequences. Going by the examples of Afghanistan and Iraq where external involvement have only brought havoc and chaos, things would not be any different in Syria if Assad were to be forcibly removed by the Saudi-Qatar-funded opposition. Thus, Western support for an anti-Syrian opposition has few takers in Israel. For the West, especially the US, Syria is a foreign policy interest; for Israel, it is an immediate neighbour with little space for misadventures.
Israeli Redlines
At the same time, Israel has sought to establish certain redlines vis-à-vis Syria. While not prepared to intervene in the civil war, it will also not accept Hezbollah to benefit from the Syrian civil war. At one level, the internal violence has left Assad with few friends in the region. His refusal for a meaningful dialogue has alienated a number of countries and even the Palestinians who were his staunchest supporters have abandoned him. For years, Hamas functioned from Damascus and its leader Khalid Masha’al lived there following his expulsion from Jordan in 2001. Not to be caught between the two sides, Hamas and its leaders quietly moved to safer places. The recent conciliation between Hamas and the Hashemite Kingdom was partly due to the growing internal opposition to King Abdullah but it was also a sign of the alienation of Hamas from the Assad regime. Not long ago, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan was eloquent about zero-problems with the neighbours. He was trying to overcome Turkey’s problems with its Arab neighbours by adoptEllsworthSK-wikipedia
missed by Israel. Yet, Israel and its usually sabre-rattling leaders were extremely cautious towards the ongoing violence in Syria to the point of being indifferent. Even the growing involvement of Iran -another Israeli obsession developed in recent years—has not changed this general posture. The devil-we-know attitude sums this approach. There were three notable exceptions when Israel intervened in a manner it is best known for—surgical strikes. On January 31, and again twice in early May, there were pointed attacks on specific military targets inside Syria. Though Israel never formally admitted its involvement, its signatures were clear and visible. The targets were either convoy of arms or storage depots of weapons, supposed to be meant for the Lebanese militant Islamic group: Hezbollah. These strikes indicate a certain pattern and picture. Supplying of sophisticated weapons to Hezbollah remains Israel’s redline vis-à-vis Syria. So long as the conflict is confined to Syria, Israel could afford to maintain its indifferent approach to the point of being apathetic. Democratisation or regime-change is not part of its discourse vis-à-vis Syria. In its view, either democracy is not possible or is not conducive for its interests. Furthermore, the brutality with which the Assad regime has been dealing with popular protests reinforced its traditional complaint against the authoritarian and dictatorial nature of its neighbourhood. No matter who is to be blamed, over 80,000 deaths and 1.4 million refugees are not trivial and the Assad regime cannot wash away its responsibilities. Ultimately, the buck stops with the ruler and more so in a dictatorial state like Syria. Thus, as some of the Israeli analysts are fond of saying that the Middle East is a tough neighbourhood to live in and Assad is the latest proof! The task of bringing about a popular change in Syria, ironically, is spearheaded by two non-democratic monarchies along the Persian Gulf: Qatar and Saudi Arabia. The latter forcefully prevented democratic yearning in neighbouring Bahrain but emerged as the key player seeking a regime change in Syria. Riyadh’s antagonism can largely be attributed to Bashar al-Assad’s undermining the Saudi-sponsored peace plan for the Arab-Israeli conflict and its interests in Lebanon. For Israel, thus, an alternative to Assad
ing a belligerent position against the Israeli treatment of the Palestinians. He did manage to dampen bilateral relations with Israel and bring it to its nadir in 2011 when he recalled the Turkish ambassador from Tel Aviv and expelled the Israeli ambassador from Ankara. This deteriorating relation with Israel, however, did not dramatically improve Turkey’s fortunes with its neighbours. On the contrary, it has exposed the naiveté of the AKP elite: relations cannot be improved unilaterally and devoid of geopolitical rationale. The onset of the Arab Spring brought home the flip side of Turkey’s Middle East policy and before long Syria became a major security concern for Erdogan. The flow of refugees, currently estimated at 300,000, was accompanied by tension and violence along the Turkish-Syrian border. Two blasts in Turkish border towns in May, for example, killed over 100 people. Like its Western allies, Turkey lacks an effective strategy against Syria, especially in containing the negative fallout of the Syrian civil war. As a result, regional support for Syria is limited to Iran and Hezbollah, who like Assad face international isolation and sanctions. There are clear indications that both are actively involved in the Syrian civil war and have been fighting along with the regime. The survival of the Assad regime is critical for their interests. Hezbollah which continues to portray itself as a resistance force has no qualms in fighting with the Assad regime. The active involvement of Hezbollah and Iran have raised Israeli concerns and forced it to abandon its prolonged indifference. As a quid pro quo for their support, Syria appears to be facilitating
ENHANCHING WAR EFFORT: The S-300 Missile brigade which is being handed over to Syria by the Russians
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the flow of arms from Iran to surface missiles became apparent Hezbollah. Within days after during the Second Lebanon the second strike in May, War in 2006. During the 32THE MISSILE Hezbollah Secretary day military campaign, as SYSTEMS SUPPLIED General Hassan Nasralmany as 4,228 missiles TO SYRIA lah told his supporters fired by Hezbollah were Fatah 110 missiles that Syria “will give identified as Iranian the resistance special made. The most specsupplied by Iran, tacular moment for weapons it never had SA-17 anti-aircraft missiles Hezbollah was when a before”. To dispel any and S-300 missile defence Chinese-made-Iranianambiguity he went systems supplied by supplied C-802 anti-ship on to add: “We mean Russia missile struck the INS Hagame-changing.” This, nit off the coast of Beirut, he described as the Syrian resulting in the death of four strategic reaction and would Israeli sailors and severe dambe more important than firing age to the corvette. Some of these misa rocket or carrying out an airstrike siles fired by Hezbollah reached the town against Israel. In a remarkably similar of Hadera, about 50 kilometres from the tone, while declining to acknowledge Israel’s involvement, a spokesperson for Israel-Lebanon border. Hezbollah leaders the Israeli Embassy in Washington added: threatened that their missiles could even “Israel is determined to prevent the transreach the coastal city of Tel Aviv. Fearing fer of chemical weapons or other gamethe strikes, half million Israeli residents changing weaponry by the Syrian regime in the north were forced to flee their to terrorists, especially to Hezbollah in homes and take temporary refuge among Lebanon.” their friends and relations in central and Within this broad regional context, southern Israel. how does one read the three military The Iranian-made Fatah 110 missiles strikes against Syria which Israel never which were supposed to be the target of openly admitted of carrying out? the May attacks, for example, have an estimated range of 250 kms. Within the narThe fallouts row Israel’s territorial context, this would First, media reports indicate that while be a strategic asset or ‘game-changing’ as carrying out these attacks, especially the Nasrallah warned. Most of Israel’s population, including the cities of Jerusalem and ones in May, Israel did not cross over into Tel Aviv, would be within the striking disSyrian airspace. The bombs were believed tance of Fatah 110 missiles from southern to have been delivered from the Lebanese-Syrian border. This could be the lesLebanon. It is essential to remember that son Israel leant from the June 2002 Turkthe UN Security Council Resolution 1701 ish fiasco. A Turkish F-4 Phantom fighter which brought an end to the Second Lebanon War, explicitly bans “sales or supply was shot down over the Mediterranean of arms and related materiel to Lebanon when it was flying too close to the Syrian except as authorized by its Government.” border. Given its inherent weakness the LebaSecond, the attacks expose the willingness of the Assad regime to impart nese government could not proceed with sensitive weapons to Hezbollah. These its long-term aspiration of disarming all weapons were supplied by Russia and militant groups in the country, including Iran to Syria, thereby indicating the benHezbollah. Thus as with human health, efits accruing to Hezbollah for its support Israel’s golden rule has been: prevention for Assad. The January attack targeted a is better than cure! convoy carrying SA-17 anti-aircraft misThird, the attacks exposed the possiles supplied by Russia and the May atsibility of an Israeli confrontation with tacks believed to have targeted the Fatah Russia, which has emerged as the principal backer of the status quo in Syria. 110 rockets supplied by Iran. Both would With the passive support from Beijing, have strengthened Hezbollah’s arsenal Moscow has prevented any international considerably and the anti-aircraft defence would have considerably limit any consensus on Syria, especially over the future Israeli operations over Lebanon. removal of Assad. With its naval base in The lethal nature of the surface-toTartus on the Mediterranean, Russia has
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no desire to abandon Syria, perhaps its only dependable ally in the entire Middle East. Even an orderly transfer of power to a more widely acceptable figure within the regime remains anathema to Moscow. This hard-line Russian position was accompanied by its desire to continue the flow of arms, something Israel has been trying to prevent. This concern forced Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a meeting with President Vladimir Putin at Sochi on the Black Sea in May 2013. He appeared to be unsuccessful in securing an explicit Russian commitment against the delivery of S-300 missile defence systems. These batteries can shoot down planes or missiles at 200 km range. These defences become crucial not only for the survival of the regime but also to underscore the Russian commitments to Damascus. The Russian support poses a severe military and political challenge to Israel. At one level, they would considerably reduce its freedom of operation vis-à-vis Syria as Israeli strikes would be difficult and costly in human terms. Moreover, striking Russian missile defence would also have a political cost for Israel. The last January attack destroyed a convoy of SA-17 missiles that were being sent to Hezbollah but destroying these missiles meant for the defence of Assad regime would undoubtedly provoke further Russian punitive measures against Israel. Thus, having been on the sidelines of the Syrian civil war, Israel is increasingly forced to make some critical decisions. At one level, it would like to prevent Hezbollah from benefitting from the Syrian situation and to increase its arsenal for a future confrontation. Towards limiting the power of the militant group, Israel would like to act against any possible shipment of weapons, especially the ‘game-changing’ ones from Syria. Russia is increasingly concerned and its rebuke of Israeli intervention is accompanied by its willingness to strengthen the Assad regime, especially through missile defence. The latter in turn makes possible Israeli intervention against Syrian arms supplies to Hezbollah costlier, both militarily and politically. Professor P R Kumaraswamy teaches contemporary Middle East history at Jawaharlal Nehru University and is the Honorary Director of Middle East Institute, New Delhi.
July 2013
BOOKREVIEW
A technology roadmap from ancient to future India Thoughts for Change—We can do it is the record of a journey from innovation and creative technological thoughts of our ancient scientists to the new concepts that are related to the same and their application in the country to make it a super power. Written by two of the best scientists produced by India, it is a must-read
Authors: Dr APJ Abdul Kalam and Dr A Sivathanu Pillai Publishers: Pentagon Press Price: `495
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enned by former President Dr APJ Abdul Kalam and Dr A Sivathanu Pillai, Thoughts for Change -- We can do it, details the immense contribution by two of the country’s top scientists to the revolutionary progress made in the fields of science and technology and the intellectual evolution in the country. The book focuses on the point that in the future of India, the budding of intellectual minds will play a crucial role by igniting the spark lying within human potential to reach the pinnacle of glory in our nationhood. Thoughts for Change
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encourages the fertile mind of youth to understand and make use of the game changer technologies that will eventually impact on the future of India. Today, the intellectual evolution in our country is seen in limited areas of developmental work. The book suggest that if India embraces technology to empower its youth, the day is not far when India can be a super power. “Therefore, the future of India is in the hands of the promising intellectual minds that is the youth, who can play a crucial role by igniting the spark lying within them to reach the pinnacle of glory in our nationhood,” the book says. It is explained in the later chapters that a deep understanding and evolving plans for self-reliance in science and technology will only strengthen the nation when the whole country is moving towards a knowledge society. If we change our mindset, then India certainly has a big chance of becoming a global leader in the knowledge age. It suggests that the nation is bigger than the individual and “tracing back the past scientific talents of India to the present day strengths and chalking out the future will help India in becoming a great nation once again”.
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The book is yet another attempt to kindle the pride in Indians and based on past achievements and scientific thought urges them to come forward. They also evoke the past to develop a scientific culture in the country, which has been in a state of neglect after the post-independence era. “The ancient Kings and emperors always respected the Saints (Rishis) who devoted their lives to research and study and so enriched the very foundations of India. This focus has been lost over the years. The pseudo rulers have simply taken to the unjustifiable pleasures without learning to respect education,” it says. The book talks of India’s immense contribution to the world in the revolutionary progress made in the fields of science and technology. It also describes ten ‘Unique Leap-Frog Futuristic Technologies’ that India can access and adapt. The world has progressed from the Stone Age to the nuclear age, and in the new millennium, convergent technologies would be more relied upon, as “this is a hugely useful technology”. “With bio-technology and information technology converging, this technology will provide the best thinking process...as new types of robotics are coming up. In the days to come,
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automation will play a huge role in terms of development and socio-economic progress. The human race has spent so many years on earth, and therefore, there is always a need to migrate. Hence, we are trying to explore new options”, the authors write. The co-author Dr Pillai says, “We have a creatively endowed population, population is our strength, and we have 580 million youth who are a great resource. If some of them can trace back the mastermind of the past, we can ensure a glorious future…With bio-technology and information technology converging, this technology will provide the best thinking process... as new types of robotics are coming up. In the days to come, automation will play a huge role in terms of development and socio-economic progress. The human race has spent so many years on earth, and therefore, there is always a need to migrate. Hence, we are trying to explore new options.” “The Brahmos missile today is of the highest quality. It has super precision. We are working on hypersonic technology, which will be the future,” he adds. Practicing what is being preached, Pillai reveals that Brahmos Aerospace was collaborating with the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru, in developing technologies for high temperature material required to build the missile, cram-jet propulsions and energy modules and the requisite algorithms. He adds that the Moscow Institute of Aviation would produce technologies for propulsion and kinetic energy modules for the hypersonic version. In all probability, these initiatives would take a minimum of five years to crystallise, he says. BrahMos is currently working on blueprints to set up a production centre, choice of vendors for supply of necessary components and investment structure. The next step is to develop missiles that can come back to the originating mode after destroying designated targets, he says. “We take pride in the fact that BrahMos, world’s only supersonic cruise missile is a symbol of Indo-Russian cooperation, where India provides the guidance, avionics, software and airframe components, etc and has been successfully delivered to both the Indian Navy and the Indian Army and the aerial version for the Indian Air Force too shall be ready in few years’ time,” Pillai points out.
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missile man: Fomer Indian President Dr APJ Abdul Kalam, the man behind India’s Missile Defence System
The book aims to be a clarion call to the youth of India to “reclaim its ancient scientific wisdom” even as it exhorts them to embrace and work towards building a future where “multiple technologies will intersect and interoperate”. Dwelling on the battlefields and warfare of tomorrow, the book lists the elements of Command, Control, Communication, Computer, Information, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4I2SR) as the backbone of battle preparedness for such situations including Ballistic Missile Defence Shield (BMDS). “It provides war-fighters at both strategic and tactical levels of command with the capability to plan and fight with BMDS, while concurrently tracking all potential ballistic missile threats, directing weapons to engage on a distributed network and pairing any sensor with the best available weapon systems to defeat ballistic missile threats at any range, in any phase of fight in all theatres,” it says. Among other technologies that the authors believe will lay the roadmap for the future of war theatres and healthcare, etc, in India is the convergence of Information, Biotechnology and Nanotechnology (nano-info-bio). Other technologies in the list include: Robotics, Artificial Intelligence and Cognitive Sciences; Sensor Technology; Materials Technology; High Energetics; Fusion Technology; Space Technology; Hypersonics and Green Technology. “Nano-info-bio and their convergence will re-define the future as we know it, whether in changing the dynamics of the war theatre where information technology will be coupled with the existing biotechnology and the new and emerging
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Father of Aerospace: Dr A Sivathanu Pillai advocates scientific culture in India among the Indian youths
field of nanotechnology or health care. A simple looking bird flying in the air could be a surveillance and reconnaissance device. “As per health, drug delivery through nano-technology has been tried on Parkinson’s Syndrome and Epilepsy patients outside India and has shown to stop their symptoms like shaking of limbs and has even allowed them to walk, not possible otherwise. And, it is definitely a future India is looking to, given its huge youth bank,” says Pillai. Talking about the future challenges of providing low cost access to space, the book says the price per tonne for reaching the lower earth can be reduced drastically from ` 6,00,00,000 to ` 60,000 by adopting a hypersonic approach using hypersonic planes. The book further suggests that several crucial technologies are critical for such an objective and this includes scramjet engines, turbofan ramjet engines, in-flight air-collection and oxygen liquefaction technology and advanced light weight high temperature materials. The book mentions the need for harnessing energy from space-based solar energy emanated by the sun saying it “radiates about 10 trillion times more energy than what humans consume across the globe today…If we are able to extract even a small portion of this energy from the sun, it would be sufficient to secure the energy demands of our future”. Divided into five sections, the book lays special emphasis on youth power, especially in the final section titled ‘Future India’ where it asks young India to “think big” and to “assume the leadership role” in building a “knowledge society” for the world.
July 2013
RIGHTANGLE
Military in disasters
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ndia’s armed forces have come off with flying colours in the rescue and relief efforts in the state of Uttarakhand that has just witnessed nature’s fury. But then this is not the first time that the Indian soldiers, in all the three wings of the military, have made the nation proud. They had risen to the occasion in the 2001 Bhuj earthquake, the 2004 tsunami, the 2005 earthquake in Kashmir, heavy rainfall in Mumbai in 2006, the 2008 Bihar Kosi disaster, the August 2010 cloudburst in Leh, and the September 2011 Sikkim earthquake. Similarly, the operations in Uttarakhand are not going to be the last time that the nation will see the armed forces in action in something that is not their primary role. And that is because despite the creation in 2009 of the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), which is headed by the Prime Minister and has the responsibility for laying down policies, plans and guidelines for managing natural disasters (and coordinating their enforcement and implementation for ensuring timely and effective response to disasters), the affected state governments press for the services of the armed forces immediately after the advent of any crisis. Many states have yet to create necessary State Disaster Management Authorities (to coordinate with the NDMA) and in some states, the department for disaster managePrakash ment is the changed name of the department of relief and rehabilitation, home guards and emergency fire services with ad hoc personnel. In fact, if one goes by the rationale of the NDMA, the use of armed forces in managing natural disasters should be the second option (the primary responsibility in this regard is that of the concerned state government) unless the source and range of the calamity is beyond the national frontiers as was the case during the 2004 tsunami. But that is not happening. Of course, the involvement of the armed forces in responding to the natural disasters is noticed in most parts of the world as well. Military resources were used in response to the 1991 cyclone in Bangladesh, and after Hurricane Mitch in Central America in 1998. The US military played a huge role in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. Similarly, a huge number of Chinese troops were deployed in the aftermath of the earthquake in Sichuan province in 2008. Nearer home, we have seen how not only the Pakistani military but also the foreign forces mounted the largest humanitarian helicopter airlift ever seen following the October 2005 earthquake in Pakistan. And most recently, soon after the earthquake, tsunami and the nuclear incident at Fukushima in 2011, the Japanese government deployed almost half of its 230,000 troops for disaster relief and established, for the first time, a joint command of ground forces, sea and air. The Japanese forces also coordinated with 20,000 US servicepersons present in that country. Broadly speaking, there are three dimensions or phases of any disaster management—prevention, response and recovery. And here, the military’s role is most needed and accepted in the
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response phase and least in the recovery phase. The greatest advantage of military intervention in natural disasters is, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the rapidity of reaction to save lives. The military has sophisticated capabilities, including extensive airlift, surveillance and reconnaissance assets, information acquisition, integration and exploitation, command, control and communications, detection and clearing capabilities and medical support. The military can also play a role in the restoration of vital infrastructure and the prevention of a domino catastrophe and the secure containment of the disaster zone. However, there are two notable ‘problems’ with the involvement of the military in disaster management. One is the involvement of foreign forces in rescue operations (as was the case of the 2005 earthquake in Pakistan) in another country. It is often criticised that the assisting foreign forces have a strategic objective in intervening in the affected state. The ‘strategic calculations’ were, perhaps, a factor, why Pakistan declined India’s offer of sending its troops for rescue operations in the parts of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir that was worst affected in 2005, but it did not have any problem in accepting American help. Fortunately, this does not apply to India, and for this credit goes again go to Nanda our military which is good enough to preclude any possibility of help from outside. But here, we have “The Guidelines on the Use of Foreign Military and Civil Defence Assets in Disaster Relief”, known as ‘the Oslo Guidelines’, which state that “whereas the involvement of domestic military forces is often a first resort due to lack of capacity elsewhere, the use of foreign military assets must be a last resort”. These guidelines also clearly “affirm that foreign military and civil defence assets must complement (rather than supplant) existing relief mechanisms. The final authority over the use of foreign military assets clearly lies with the affected state”. The second problem, often cited by the so-called liberals, is that when armed forces become active in managing disasters, the country gets ‘militarised’—in the sense that the troops in the disaster zones are not necessarily under the control and direction of the civilian authorities; nor are they accountable to the latter. The issue here involves the broader subject of civilmilitary relations, which, unfortunately, some vested interests in India are trying to exploit in their anti-military agenda. Ideally, recourse to the military’s help in meeting natural disasters should be the last option. But as that is not proving to be realistic, it is high time to evolve a defined role for the armed forces in disaster management. And what is equally important, as is the case in the United States, the three services must have dedicated troops expressly trained to assist in national disaster at a moment’s notice. Our soldiers are good in this regard, but there is always scope for improvement.
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prakashnanda@newsline.in
July 2013
Postal Reg No. DL(E) 01/5363/2011-13, RNI No. DELENG/2010/35319, Publication Date: 1st of every month, Posting Date: 8-9th every month
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