DRDO
COVER STORY (P48)
THE ARJUN SAGA We trace the decades-long development of the country's home- grown main battle tank programme, the sorry tale of tank ammunition and the supporting logistics needed for optimum performance of our mechanised forces.
PERISCOPE (P54 )
DPR
NAVY MIL
PANORAMA (P10)
KILLING THE EMIR OF TERROR
PRIDE OF THE FLEET
From round-the-clock satellite surveillance, to practising the raid in an exact replica of the Abbottabad building, the US went to extraordinary lengths to ensure the success of Operation Neptune Spear.
The Indian Navy's lone aircraft carrier, the INS Viraat, has completed 25 years of glorious service to the nation.
FOCUS (P18)
DEF BIZ (P27)
INTERNAL SECURITY (P58)
DRAGON’S CHALLENGE BLACKLISTING DILEMMA
THE NCTC ENIGMA
With the ability to launch disabling missile attacks on Indian air bases, the PLA Air Force is attempting to degrade India's sortie-generating capability.
As the country questions its constitutional validity, we dissect the rationale behind the creation of the proposed National Counter Terrorism Centre.
www.geopolitics.in
As India faces an acute shortage of modern weaponry, it finds itself in a conundrum with major weapons manufacturers blacklisted for myriad reasons.
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June 2012
Nepal has witnessed a fractious political process involving an incremental progress towards constitution building.
HC TIWARI
RAJIBAKSHA RAKSHIT
BOEING
SIGISMUND VON DOBSCHÜTZ
THE CONVOLUTED PATH TO PEACE (P68)
PROTECTING THE SEAS (P30)
BROTHERLY ENEMIES (P62)
THE DECISIVE EDGE (P12)
India’s comprehensive Medium-Range Maritime Reconnaissance aircraft programme has excited aircraft makers from across world.
With increasing fratricidal rivalries among Naga militants, peace in Nagaland has become more elusive.
Road-mobile missiles make a pre-emptive attack by enemies difficult and prohibitive.
PERSPECTIVE (P42) THE ELUSIVE GUN
RHEINMETALL
With the arrival of cruise missiles and precision-guided munitions on the Asian scene, the Indian Army needs quality air-defence guns, but the company that makes them is blacklisted.
DIPLOMACY (72)
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DEEPENING TIES Editor-in-Chief
DEFENCE COOPERATION HAS
K SRINIVASAN PRAKASH NANDA
GEOPOLITICS
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MOHIT KANSAL
TIRTHANKAR GHOSH Senior Correspondent
ROHIT SRIVASTAVA Photo Editor
H C TIWARI
Director (Marketing)
RAKESH GERA
COMPONENT IN THE GROWING
Copy Editor
STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP
ASHOK KUMAR
BETWEEN INDIA AND GREAT
Staff Photographer
BRITAIN.
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Sr Manager (Sales & Marketing)
PRAVEEN SHARMA
Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear. Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020. Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in. www.geopolitics.in
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Managing Editor
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PL A AND INDIAN AIR BASES IN THE NORTH-EAST
geopolitics VOL III, ISSUE I, JUNE 2012 `100
India
in the fails ves
D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y
Maldi
ELUSIVE AIR-DEFENCE GUNS THE NCTC IMBROGLIO
THE
SURVIVOR CONCEIVED IN 1972 AND YET TO FACE A REAL ENEMY, ARJUN HAS BATTLED MANY A NAY-SAYER AT HOME IN ITS JOURNEY
ITS IA ON IND NS IN DC ANS PL
1P8
Editor
Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha The total number of pages in this issue is 84 with cover
June 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
LETTERS
LETTERS TO EDITOR
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our previous issue (May 2012) carried a comprehensive coverage of the Defexpo. The collage on the cover told the full story of the expo. The selection of the picture was commendable. At time when Army is ready to dump INSAS, the Defence Minister was seen endorsing the gun in your lead picture with the DRDO Chief smiling in the background. Well the difference between the Forces' perception and the Ministry view could not have been explained better. No wonder it is said a picture is equal to thousand words. Country reports on the four most important bilateral relations in the field of defence which are crucial to our military modernisation were covered at length which I thoroughly appreciate. On the same lines, the glimpses of the Defexpo presented a complete story of what happened, where, when and how of the three days of the Expo. But I must say I was fairly disappointed with the cover stories. Different pieces by different authors gave same example and drew the same conclusion. It is very strange. I must tell you this is not something that will go down well with people. Regards Sunil Sudhakar Pune
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read your last issue of May and was surprised to see the industry taking centre stage in your magazine. The extensive coverage of the Defexpo chronicled everything that happened at the event. The crisp interviews of the captains of the defence industry were presented with a nice touch. You www.geopolitics.in
balanced the interviews with Indian as well as global firms. I agree that both need equal coverage. Articles covering the procurement problems and the fallout of blacklisting were very informative and analytical. Though I learned a lot, all of them conveyed the same thing. Chietigj Bajpaee's piece on (Sino- Indian Rivalry Moving offshore, May 2012) ongoing India - China rivalry in the maritime domain was a good read. This topic needs more similar pieces. Similarly, Yamini Choudhary in her (Shaping Strategies for the 21st Century) story on emerging partnership between India and Japan dewll on the threat from China. For last few months Geopolitics has been carrying a lot stories from East Asia. This gels with our Look-East policy. Regards G Laxmanan Chennai
I
intend to register my appreciation of your previous issue (May, 2012). I read it thoroughly and I must say I was surprised by the extensiveness of the content. It has covered most of the global and local defence majors and I am sure the information generated by the magazine on their capability will be of importance to one and all. Although I must say you should have focused in your cover story on the way defence business is being carried
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out in India. There is a knowledge vacuum. One does not know how defence business is being executed when the technology is of very high level which requires very high-level expertise, it will be interesting to know these inside nitty-gritty of the business. I hope we will see some interesting feature and stories in your coming issue. Regards Jagdeep Singh Jalandhar
Y
our story on the cruise missile defence (Imperative of Cruise Missile Defence, May 2012) by Sitankant Mishra raised important questions for the defence managers of India. There has been a jump in the number and type of the cruise missiles in our neighbourhood and we will be facing their heat at time of war. But technological barriers are very crucial part of any next-level capabilities. I am sure the author is aware of that. The high cost and low efficiency of any cruise missile defence will not be a very sensible thing to do for any defence force. We all are aware that cruise missiles can be intercepted by another cruise missile/ bullet system at subsonic speed. They are problems at the supersonic or near supersonic speed. Regards Surender Shinde Rohtak
All correspondence may be addressed to: Editor, Geopolitics, D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi-110013. OR mail to geopolitics@newsline.in. June 2012
{GOLDENEYE}
Likho, magar ruk ke!
www.geopolitics.in
g Haven’t we met somewhere? HERE IS a brief gist of a lovely story we saw in Kolkata’s Ò Telegraph. No grapevine, no gossip in this, but plenty of emotions: "When Indian Air Force chief N A K Browne visited Jessore on March 21, a young Bangladeshi cadet had briefed the Air Chief Marshal who said the two air forces should have frequent friendly exchanges. Little did Browne know that coincidence would land the cadet right into his arms a month later. “It was the same young man, Senior Air Cadet Rashed Sheikh of the Bangladesh Air Force, who lost his way and force-landed his trainer aircraft in Murshidabad last week (towards the end of May). An IAF plane flew Rashed to Dhaka on Thursday (May 24). “Browne was on an official visit to Bangladesh during which he was given a tour of the BAF Academy in Jessore. Following Rashed’s briefing, the chief interacted with the cadets and told them about the
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HE LAST big fauji book that caused some waves was the delectable reminiscences of General J F R Jacob. He has written one hell of a memoir: stylish, witty and brutally honest (at least that’s what many who know him state) and plenty of material for the mind to ruminate and exercise. Perhaps, Jacob’s raison d’etre was the fact that he had sufficiently separated himself from the events that he participated in (by writing long years after the event) to offer a detached commentary on those times. Alas, V K Singh won’t have that liberty! If inside stories are anything to go by, publishers big and small are clamouring for a piece of the action and desperate for the General to sign on the dotted line. They want his memoirs out before the heat and the excitement caused by his stirring the pot so incessantly dies out. But it won’t be all that easy. If indeed he decides to write straightaway, he will have to get the book vetted by the government to make sure that uncomfortable facts don’t pop out in the public domain. And if he wants them out of the way then he will probably have to wait a while. Do we have anything to tell the General Saab: Sabr karo aur tussi thoda ruk ke likho. Apne gusse nu thamne do, dundh chat jayega aur twanu sab kuchch behetar dikhai dega
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g need for friendly exchanges. Rashed has now become the new face of India-Bangladesh friendship, rising above the Teesta water stand-off. When Browne visited Jessore on March 21, it was not only a friendly exchange but also a trip to a place that is hallowed in the IAF tradition. During the 1971 war, Jessore, then in East Pakistan, was a base for the Pakistan Air Force.” Said the Telegraph: “The Bangladesh Air Force chief, Air Marshal Shah Mohammed Ziaur Rahman, too, telephoned Air Chief Marshal Browne and thanked him. ‘We are very relieved and very touched. I should also say that the family of the cadet also wants to convey its gratitude,’ the Bangla air chief was quoted as having told Browne. There is a story behind such profuse thanksgiving. It is a story about new relationships that can be forged in South Asia despite uneven borders that are both the cause and effect of bloodied histories and of inadvertent transgressions by aircraft.
Slumming it out IT MUST be one hell of a job for someone used to Ò comfort and elegance of Central London to be gallivanting around Karol Bagh and Paharganj changing hotels and escaping the prying eyes of the media that is keeping an eagle watch for him. Poor Ravi Rishi! The elusive multi-millionaire who had made a killing on the Tetra truck and who is now under the scanner of the mai baaps of the sarkar is slumming it out literally fighting on all sides to save his empire and his reputation. The problem for him that it’s not that he doesn’t have friends in high places. He has plenty of them. The problem is that the moment any one of them comes to his aid, he can be certain that General V K Singh will come down on him like a ton of bricks. So what does the poor man do? What others in such situation have done before him. Read the papers, watch TV, live a low profile existence, shun the media and hope that life will come a full circle and the storm will blow over.
www.geopolitics.in
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{GOLDENEYE}
Barakless
WE HAVE always maintained that Raksha Ò Mantri A K Antony is a strokeless wonder. He is the sort of defensive player who will play a test match over 30 days and you will still be some distance from a result. So, it was no surprise that Antony (of course, in consultation with the Ministry of External Affairs) turned down an Israeli request for an official visit by Defence Minister Ehud Barak, a former Prime Minister of that country— during the Defexpo in March-end. Apparently, the Israelis felt that the event provided the right platform for a heavyweight to come calling. With the growing India-Israel defence partnership, Defexpo — it is believed — was the right forum. Anthony, however, didn’t think so. Apparently, South Block (that houses both the MEA and MoD) felt that Barak at the event could cause a stink. But they had no compunction in flogging them financially, selling them huge exhibition space and getting all their top companies to participate despite the fact that days before the event one of their top corporations was blacklisted by Antony for 10 years. For the record, it must be mentioned that Israel is among the top three defence suppliers to India and was the biggest participating country in terms of floor space at Defexpo. But it must be stressed that if Antony is strokeless, the Israelis are coy. Call them and ask them anything about defence cooperation and their standard answer is: "We do not discuss defence in the public domain." Then why did Ehud Barak want to come for such a public and heavy bandwidth event?
June 2012
HOW
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GEOPOLITICS
PANORAMA
OSAMA WAS ! D E H POAC
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he Pentagon recently unveiled a precise scale model of Osama bin Laden’s Pakistan compound used to plan the Navy-SEAL raid that ended in the al-Qaeda chief being killed. Every tree, bush, door and fence in that mock-up was as it was prior to that May evening (when Osama was killed), created using satellite imagery, pictures from drones and actual CIA ground surveillance. It was created by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
Here are the details:
0 One inch to seven feet scale model is an exact replica of the Abbottabad building that the terrorist mastermind had lived in for five years before his death in May 2011. 0 Built in six weeks by the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency and considered top secret till unveiled, the detailed recreation even contains a parked red van that intelligence officials often observed at the site. 0 To keep the entire model built from Styrofoam and acrylic as precise as possible, measurements were
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produced using a process called photogenic measurement, which uses shadows to work out specific heights. Created months before the final goahead was given by President Obama, the model was first assessed by the CIA and other US intelligence agencies. The scale model was then presented to military officials such as Admiral Mike Mullen, the then chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General James Cartwright, Mullen’s deputy and Admiral William McCraven, head of Special Operations Command. The model was used subsequently in the final preparations and planning for Operation Neptune Spear, the codename given to the helicopter-borne mission to kill Osama bin Laden. In addition to the smaller US-based model, the US Navy Seals practised at a one acre full-scale replica of the compound built at Bagram air base in Afghanistan known as Camp Alpha. The raid itself was completed short-
ly after 1 am local time when bin Laden was shot once in the chest and once in the head by a US Navy Seal who announced ‘For God and country Geronimo, Geronimo, Geronimo’, because Geronimo was the code-name given to the al-Qaeda leader. 0 President Obama himself said in the White House Situation Room watching events unfold, ‘We got him.’
About the Abbottabad compound
0 Built in 2004, the three-story compound was 2.5 miles northeast of the city centre of Abbottabad and about 100 miles from the Afghan border. 0 The home was constructed on a plot of land eight times larger than those of the nearby houses and was surrounded by a 12 to 18 foot tall fence or wall topped with barbed wire. 0 Intelligence recovered from the home that was made public in the aftermath of his death showed Osama bin Laden wrapped up from the cold watching news coverage of himself. 0 Before the US Navy SEALs left the compound they destroyed one of the
two top secret stealth helicopters that had delivered them to the house after it encountered difficulties on landing and, therefore, could not take off again. 0 And it was later reported from Pakistan that one of bin Laden’s wives had told the Pakistani authorities that they had lived there for five years without detection. 0 In February 2012, Pakistani security agencies demolished the building to stop it becoming a shrine to the deceased al-Qaeda supremo.
The Afterward Former Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said that he had doubts that bin Laden was in the compound. “We didn’t have one single piece of hard data that he was actually in that compound, not one,” said Gates to TV News Channel CBS and added: “The whole thing was a circumstantial case built by analysts at CIA. My view was, ‘Let’s kill him, but let’s use a missile of some kind’.” But Gates said that the ultimate decision from Mr Obama to go through with the raid was impressive: “It was a courageous call.”
US DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE
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June 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
SPECIALFEATURE
I
EU NATIONALMUS M.AF.MIL
NDIA’S STATED doctrine of fielding a minimum credible deterrent over time implies the pursuit of a modifiable, if relatively modest, deterrent structure in terms of deliverable warheads. Starting from a situation wherein it basically relied on manned combat jets using gravity bombs, India’s Strategic Forces Command (SFC) is now progressively increasing its holding of land-mobile ballistic missiles and is even on the cusp of inaugurating an undersea deterrent, thereby completing the sought-after ‘triad’. However, landbased missiles will be the backbone of the SFC heading further down this decade and their survivability will be synonymous with the credibility of India’s nuclear deterrent. After all, survivable nuclear forces are just another way of stating India’s declared no-first-use policy. In this sense, building up India’s inventory of randomly-based long-range land-mobile missiles with multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs) is supposed to be the right step towards possessing a potent second strike capability that can deter China. The nuclear threat environment to India is characterised by the presence of at least two potentially hostile nuclear armed states possessing mature ballistic missile capabilities in addition to manned aircraft and as in the case of China, submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) capability. While Pakistan has an overt first-strike policy vis-a-vis India if
certain self-evaluated redlines are crossed, China’s nuclear posture against nuclear armed states does not consist of any explicitly stated no-first-use policy. Thus, India cannot rule out the potential of a pre-emptive strike on its nuclear forces by either of its two neighbours with whom it shares disputed borders. The situation for India is complicated further by the fact that the possibility of short time of flight attacks on its nuclear forces is quite real given the distances involved. Till now the idea has been that the SFC, on receiving strategic warning — a reference to general indications of preparations for an attack by the enemy, would move Indian nuclear forces to some kind of an alert status. This would mean that some Indian missiles now mated with their warheads would be ready to fly and IAF fighters carrying
TOWARDS A CREDIBLE
DETERRENCE www.geopolitics.in
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KNOCKOUT PUNCH: Randomlybased canisterised long-range missiles with MIRVs (inset) present India with the most viable deterrent option against China
nuclear payloads would be ready to take off once tactical warning-indication that the enemy’s attack is actually underway has been issued. Looking at the aircraft leg of India’s deterrent, while Pakistani missiles with their mostly small fission warheads would probably not be able to completely neutralise the SFC’s fighterbomber holdings if the latter were kept on alert status, the situation with respect to China isn’t that clear. China’s deployment of the 2000-km-plus road-mobile canisterised DF-21 with manoeuvring reentry vehicles (MaRVs) in the 250-350 kiloton (kt) range on the Tibetan plateau makes soft skinned targets such as fighter jets rather vulnerable, even after they have been in the air for a short while. Moreover strategic warning times themselves are getting compressed with China’s deployment of the canisterised
Road-mobile missiles make a pre-emptive attack by enemies difficult and prohibitive, writes SAURAV JHA June 2012
g SPECIALFEATURE
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underground facilities) also provide cold comfort to India. Given land pressures, it is highly unlikely that India can disperse silos suitably wide or create enough of them to make silo basing a survivable prospect. A modest number of silos would be quite vulnerable to short timeof-flight (STOF) attacks by just a few high accuracy MaRVs, thereby giving enough incentive to potential enemies to launch a pre-emptive strike on them as not too many warheads will have to be expended. Thus faced with a ‘use them or lose them’ prospect, silo-based missiles in the Indian context would in any case have to be kept on a launch-on-warning status and that certainly won’t enhance nuclear stability in Asia. In the light of the above, it is understandable that India is adding roadand-rail-mobile missiles of the Agni series to its nuclear delivery portfolio. Once mobile, it is rather difficult to “catch” such systems in a pre-emptive nuclear strike and the uncertainty involved makes the number of warheads
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required in the first strike prohibitive. However, there is always the question of whether road-and-rail-mobile systems should be garrisoned or be randomly based. Garrison-based systems require the missile-carrying train or truck (or tractor) to actually ‘dash’ from their bases upon receiving warning of an impending attack. In the case of rail-based systems this definitely has to be some kind of a strategic warning as even missile trains on alert may not cover sufficient distances to survive a nuclear attack. Looking at truck road-mobile systems, lesser warning times may suffice, depending on how “hardened” (i.e in terms of resistance to blast pressure) the transporter-erectorlauncher (TEL) is. The Russian Topol-M carrier, for instance, requires at least 10 minutes of dash time from its ‘garage’ to survive a 500 Kt warhead airburst with its garrison as an epicentre. On the other hand, the American hard mobile launcher (HML) for the cancelled Midgetman June 2012
HC TIWARI
DF-21 against India. In an earlier era when primarily liquid-fuelled DF-3s and DF-4s were directed against India requiring launch preparations of up to 150 minutes, one could expect genuine strategic warning to set into motion nuclear readiness procedures. In the case of the solidfuelled DF-21, less than 10 minutes of launch preparation time is required. Moreover, given that the DF-21s targeting India are deployed on the mostly uninhabited Tibetan plateau, there is a likelihood that some missiles would already be mated with their warheads. The usual Chinese policy is to keep nuclear warheads separate from the missiles, but this is essentially intended to facilitate movement of Chinese land-mobile missiles through populated areas, and in the absence of an India-China strategic arms dialogue, hardly something that can be taken on face value. As far as Pakistan is concerned, with all claims of recessed deterrent posture (i.e cores separated from warheads) strategic warning may not be available, thereby leaving the SFC faced with what is tantamount to a boltfrom-the-blue attack given that missile flight times in the Indo-Pakistani context can be as low as two minutes. Silo-based missiles (missiles stored in
g SPECIALFEATURE
MIRV LAUNCH SEQUENCE
WIKIMEDIA/FASTFISSION
1. The missile launches out of its silo by firing its first stage boost motor (A). 2. The first stage drops off and the second stage motor (B) ignites. The missile shroud (E) is ejected. 3. The third stage motor (C) ignites and separates from the second stage. 4. The third stage thrust terminates and the PostBoost Vehicle (D) separates from the rocket. 5. The Post-Boost Vehicle manoeuvres itself and prepares for re-entry vehicle (RV) deployment. 6. While the Post-Boost Vehicle backs away, the RVs, decoys, and chaff are deployed (although the figure shows this happening during descent, this may occur during ascent instead). 7. The RVs and chaff re-enter the atmosphere at high speeds and are armed in flight. 8. The nuclear warheads detonate, either as air bursts or ground bursts. small inter-continental ballistic missile (ICBM) needed only two minutes of dash time to survive an equivalent nuclear airburst. This was because the HML was designed to resist up to 30 times the blast pressure of the Topol-M’s TEL. Random basing, wherein missile carriers are either pre-dispersed along a rail network (rail mobile) or peacetime stationed over a large land area with no fixed garage (road mobile), makes a preemptive attack prohibitive as far as warhead numbers are concerned (even for large yield warheads) . The enemy simply cannot judge with any credible certainty where the targets may be located. In random-basing modes, the concept of “dashing” becomes irrelevant, thereby allowing nuclear planners to harden the missilecarrier vehicles further as there is no tradeoff between dash speed and weight and the focus can instead be more on camouflaging their movements. India, it seems, has opted for random basing as evidenced from publicly available images of Agni series TELs and statements made by Indian officials over the years which, for instance, talked about Indian missile trains disguised as normal ‘Maal gaadis’ or goods trains hiding in India’s extensive rail network. More recently, in the wake of the successful test launches of the Agni-IV and Agni-V, there was talk of how these missiles could be deployed ‘anywhere in India’ over a potential three million-km road network. The road mobile TEL’s revealed publicly thus far do not seem to be designed to dash from garrisons. Given their modiwww.geopolitics.in
fied flatbeds on which the missiles rest and semi-trailer rigs, they are more suited to pre-deployment in remote areas from where they can be launched without the need for a warning, i.e as a pure second strike. The rail mobile carriers, as mentioned above, are apparently designed to resemble goods carriages to such an extent that satellite surveillance would not be able to pick them out from the thousands of Indian goods trains plying every day. However, both road-and-railmobile Agni missile carriers may be spotted from the ground. In 2010, there were reports that China was using north-eastern rebel groups to provide intelligence on Agni-II mobile deployments in the North-east. Indeed while randomlybased land-mobile systems deter a preemptive nuclear attack, they incentivise the development of seek-and-destroy systems by the enemy. Such seek-anddestroy systems may look to combine human intelligence with loitering attack systems to locate and neutralise mobile nuclear forces. However, China is some distance away from developing potent seek-and-destroy systems owing to a lack of adequate satellite-based surveillance systems or persistent airborne-attack capability. At best, a purely conventional riposte to India’s strategic forces may involve special forces operations in areas close to the Chinese border acting upon specific intelligence inputs or some cruise missile strikes. In this context, India’s movement towards longer-ranged missiles such as the AgniIII, IV and indeed V from the Agni-II is a
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welcome step indeed. A canisterised Agni-V, after all, will be able to hold all important Chinese targets at risk from anywhere in India. Randomly-based canisterised longrange missiles, therefore, present India with the most viable deterrent option against China in the medium term. Even though garrison-based systems are sometimes easier to protect from conventional attacks, the advantages of avoiding a preemptive nuclear attack that random basing confers far outweigh. In fact, clever random basing with adequate safeguards is very difficult to defeat. A canisterised system such as the Agni-V can also add MIRV capability without sacrificing nuclear stability, because the random basing arguments, even in the case of the MIRVED Agni-V, will continue to hold. Putting MIRV capability on the Agni-V would actually allow a lesser number of these missiles to provide adequate deterrent capability and make the SFCs’ management and protection measures easier. MIRVs are of course also required to beat emerging Chinese ABM defences. Moreover, MIRVED Agni-Vs cannot be considered destabilising because of India’s commitment to both a no-firstuse and credible minimum deterrent. Indian planners do not seem to be interested in moving away from countervalue targeting as estimates of Indian warhead numbers show. Therefore, Indian MIRV capability is meant to create ‘economy of effort’ as far as the Indian strategic deterrent is concerned. June 2012
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GEOPOLITICS EXCERPTS
SLOGGING IT OUT It is a reflection of the times that R K Anand’s book, Assault on Merit, on the babus and netas and their shenanigans against the men in uniform has garnered huge publicity for all the wrong reasons. For one, there was much ‘outrage’ at the then Chief of Army Staff, General V K Singh, having released the book. But what do you expect from a General who is bitter and feels he was done in by the system? Ironically, it was not the babus but the military top brass that actually put the tweezer on Singh. The babus only played along. But that’s not what the book is all about. It is a case by case representation of how the system is brazen, absurd, and at times, downright hostile and how in each case the government’s done what it felt with the least concern for those affected. In each case it is the courts that provided the relief. R K Anand is a past master of the courtroom drama. This book isn’t all his cases, but it does include some that he fought, including one where he was on the wrong side and battling an ‘unjust’ cause on behalf of the Ministry of Defence. Anand is glad he lost the case! Exclusive excerpts:
Assault on Merit Author: RK Anand Publisher: Har Anand Pages: 200 Price: `495 Army Headquarters and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) are frequently at loggerheads about promotions, postings and financial matters. MoD bureaucrats use technicalities to achieve their goals. In 1998, 21 Major Generals were kept in the limbo for ten months while MOD bureaucrats juggled with their jargon. Many careers are affected www.geopolitics.in
by unnecessary delays in the labyrinthine MoD corridors. This creates resentment among officers whose careers are endangered through no lack of merit of their own. In an unprecedented move, in 1998 three Service Chiefs wrote a letter to the Prime Minister asking for the removal of Defence Secretary Ajit Kumar. They cited his obstructionist ways which were hampering the smooth functioning of military matters. MoD bureaucrats are a vengeful lot and often hit back, usually below the belt, by tinkering with rules and regulations of precedence and protocol to embarrass Generals. In the last two decades, this situation has created an unhealthy pattern in which officers who have been rejected for the next appointment by the Army leadership have won their appointment either through
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statutory complaints or through Court orders. One example will show the absurd situation prevalent among senior ranks. In the 1990s, four senior officers of the 1962 batch who became Lieutenant Generals went through a bizarre episode of musical chairs. Brigadier S S Grewal was rejected by the Army promotion board for the rank of Major General. Through a statutory complaint he won his case and rose to become Lieutenant General and even commanded a Corps. Major General H RS Kalkat was rejected by the board for promotion to Lieutenant General rank. His statutory complaint was rejected by Army Chief. He won his promotion through a statutory complaint to Ministry of Defence (MOD). Kalkat rose to become Corps Commander and then Army Commander. June 2012
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During this same period, Major General B S Malik was twice rejected by the selection board to the next rankof Lieutenant General. A Governmen the lbent on his promotion threw all procedures to the winds. The Chief of Army Staff (COAS) even met with the Prime Minister to convey bluntly the message that such measures would undermine the discipline of the army. MoD first gave Malik a three-month extension, as he was due to retire, and then just prior to expiration of the extension, he was promoted. A fourth officer, Lieutenant General Raj Kadyan had to go through a hurdle race resorting to statutory complaints, the High and Supreme Courts in his battle to get the post of Army Commander. As detailed later in this book, he lost his case for the Army Commander post, but ended his career as Deputy Chief of Army Staff. In 1997, another absurd situation arose when Major General H S Bagga was not found fit for promotion to the rank of Lieutenant General. He went to Delhi High Court to get his promotion. In an unprecedented move, the Court ordered that all promotions to the rank of Lieutenant General in the Army had to be put on hold until Bagga was promoted. This move affected careers of many and caused much resentment among senior officers. After
IN HAPPIER TIMES: Former Army Chief VK Singh in an animated discussion with Defence Minister A K Antony
two months, Bagga was promoted and newly promoted Lieutenant Generals were freed from limbo. In 1996, when Lieutenant General H B Kala was appointed Army Commander, one
of his junior officers Lieutenant General M R Sharma filed a statutory complaint asking that his career profile should be compared with Kala as he was more eligible for the post. Sharma's case was rejected. There have been several conflicts between Army Chiefs, MOD, and the political masters represented in the ACC. In 1959, Army Chief General K S Thimayya (Kumaon Regiment) had no love lost for Defence Minister Krishna Menon. Menon heartily reciprocated the sentiment. Thimayya tendered his resignation over Menon's interference in military affairs but Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru persuaded him not to resign. Officers were happy when Thimayya decided to resign because they considered this to be a principled move. But his reputation suffered when he reneged on his decision. In the aftermath of the humiliation of the Indian Army at the hands of the Chinese in 1962, Army Chief General Pran Nath Thapar (1st Punjab) was forced to resign. In the 1960s, COAS General J. N. Chaudhury (7th Light Cavalry) approved only the conditional promotion of Brigadier D K Palit (nick-named Monty). The Government overruled Chaudhury and Pal it was given the command of a divisionon his promotion
THE GENERAL’S LAST CHARGE General V K Singh on the promotion policy of the armed forces, why it is flawed and how the babus tweak it all the time. This brief interview with the General in the last chapter of the book is the only direct intervention by the former Chief of staff in Assault on Merit. Extracts: What needs to be done is to follow the DOPT (Department of Personnel and Training) norms which are based on a simple premise — that the decision of the Selection Board will be final. These are extremely well laid-down norms and are followed rigidly in the case of the IAS and the IPS. But in our case, the Ministry of Defence has managed to wedge its way into the process. Somewhere along the line, the bureaucrats managed to slip into the DSR that ‘recommendations of the Board are recommendatory in nature’ and this opened the door to all sorts ofmanipulations. The
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Board consists of nine Secretary-level officers and one Cabinet Secretary-level officer, yet this was allowed to happen, for which we in the Army have only ourselves to blame. Over the years, this has been creating chaos, because a lot of affected people go to the bureaucrats and all kinds of things go on. Quite a few of the Selection Board’s decisions are overturned before the file makes its way to the Raksha Mantri or to the ACC for its final approval. Actually the selection process is very good. Up to Colonel-level promotions are done internally by us within the Army,
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while Brigadier and above, the Ministry comes into the picture. The process is very simple — up to Brigadier level the Board doesn’t even get to see the names — just the data sheets. Brigadier upwards, the names are there, so the Board discusses the spoken reputation of the man. You simply said so-and-so is good, or so-and-so is bad. This is a vital aspect and a must for military leadership. Accordingly earlier, they would get selected or they would get rejected. We have tried to make it even more transparent. In the quantified model which is followed now,
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to Major General. In 1975, the Government wanted to appoint Lieutenant General S L Menezes as Army Commander against the wishes of COAS General T N Raina (14th Kumaon Regiment). Raina and Defence Minister Jagjivan Ram met behind the scenes and struck a bargain that was at best a win-win situation as against the stand-off: They agreed to appoint Menezes as VCOAS instead of Army Commander. ************************ Religion, ethnicity, balance between various arms of the Army, battalion affiliation and personal likes and dislikes play a role in selection of officers to senior ranks. For decades there had been whispers that India has not chosen a Sikh Chief of Army Staff (COAS) despite the sterling contribution and sacrifices of Sikh soldiers. In 2005, India appointed its first Sikh COAS, General Joginder Jaswant Singh. Some said that the decision was several decades too late. A well respected and brilliant Sikh officer Lieutenant General Harbaksh Singh was heading Western Command and is credited with defying the orders of the COAS General J N Chaudhury to withdraw during the 1965 war, thus saving large parts of Punjab from possible hostile occupation. He reportedly told
you have ‘value judgement’ marks-five marks-which are utilised in selecting the right people. In this system, no one is told the computerised merit of the officer. The Military Secretary places the name on the table. If there are thirty names and ten vacancies, we look at the top fifteen or twenty to start with. The MS starts reading everything about the man (other than his identity) and he just says if he is within the top fifteen or twenty, for the simple reason that if a chap is at the bottom of the table, even if he gets all five marks, he still will not make the grade and there is no point unnecessarily wasting time over those cases. The numbers are then tabulated and the averages worked out. The MS then comes back to us and reads out the names of the officers. ‘In the case of Major Generals and above, the process is reversed- the names are known but the computer merit is withheld. Earlier, in General Deepak Kapoor’s time, the computer merit was made known and the Board was asked to
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close associates, just before he died, that Indira Ghandhi had promised him the Army Chief post but instead gave it to Sam Manekshaw. J J Singh was commissioned in the 9th Maharatta Light Infantry (MLI) and he won the top slot, being slightly senior to another brilliant officer Lieutenant General Hari Prasad. Incidentally, Prasad was also from MLI. A few years ago, the MLI created history when it boasted of eight officers from this regiment serving simultaneously as Generals. The list included VCOAS Lieutenant General Vijay Oberoi, GOC-in-C Eastern Command Lieutenant General H R S Kalkat, Lieutenant General J J Singh, Lieutenant General S B Satpute and Hari Prasad, Master General of Ordnance Lieutenant General J S Dhillon, DG Assam Rifles Lieutenant General G K Duggal and Commandant of Infantry School Lieutenant General D B Shekatkar. Muslims represent a very small fraction of soldiers and officers of the Indian Army. Usually one Muslim General Officer is kept as a token. Currently, Lieutenant General Zameeruddin Shah (he is the brother of famous actor Naseeruddin Shah) is serving as Deputy Chief of Army Staff for Planning and Systems. Shah was commissioned in an Artillery regiment.
give marks accordingly which we felt was not a fair method and there was no point in holding a Board by calling senior officers out. For example, this is what happens in the Medical Branch-the Board is told this is the merit of A, Band C. In this case two marks are given for the spoken reputation, but there the case is different, leadership skills are secondary to professional competency. ‘The MSX is responsible for everything, Brigadiers and above. He looks after postings and prepares all the papers for Selection Boards. If you have a suspect MSX, as has been the case in the past, then the system is wide open and can be tampered with. The system is foolproof to a point, but if someone is looking to manipulate it, it has been known to happen. ‘If someone gets influenced to do something, they’ll simply find twenty excuses to create problems for others by raising all sorts of frivolous points and in the bureaucratic maze it all gets lost. This is justified, this is not justified, all
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Friction is not unusual between senior officers on various issues. The most embarrassing episodes have occurred over the issue of promotions and postings. Sometimes battles between senior brass are fought in courtrooms and media and these fights have been ugly. All Services are plagued with this ailment. Officers who are not promoted routinely approach Courts for redressal which severely strains working relations between senior brass. Recently, when Lieutenant General H C S Panag was transferred from the prestigious Northern Command to Central Command, he protested against the transfer. He alleged that he had started several investigations about irregularities in procurement for the troops under his command. These irregularities date back to when his predecessor General Deepak Kapoor was in command. He subsequently became Army Chief. Panag met Defence Minister A K Antony to present his side of the story. The Government stayed away from the fray and Panag was moved. In 1998, when Lieutenant General H R S Kalkat (2nd Maharatta Light Infantry) was appointed GOC-in-C of Eastern Command, a senior Lieutenant General Raj Kadyan (19th Rajputana Rifles) went to Court. The case lingered on for years in the High Court and Supreme Court.
sorts of things. If there has been any tampering, after a while it’s almost impossible to pin down where the problem originated. ‘As the level moves higher - Major General and above, the Raksha Mantri is replaced by the Appointments Committee of the Cabinet as the ratifying body. Not just the Board for picking up ranks, but all appointments including those of Corps and Army Commanders are ratified by the ACC. Political interference lends yet another dimension to the entire thing. That’s where the Institutional Integrity of the Armed Forces has to be protected at all costs. The system is not only good, it is excellent with its various checks and balances. But if subversion takes place from within, there is not much that can be done. If you throw a stone into the pond, the ripples are felt everywhere-on the face of it, the affected party may be an individual, but in the ultimate analysis, everything has its own repercussions. Our political and bureaucratic class has to recognise this.’
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CHINA-CHALLENGE TO INDIA’S AIR POWER The PLA Air Force is attempting to degrade India’s sortie-generating capability, warns ROHIT SINGH
REAL AND PRESENT DANGER: China has acquired capabilities to launch a short, swift war under its war zone concept (WZC) — application of force restricted to a war zone
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HINA’S PEOPLE Liberation Army (PLA) can launch disabling Short Range Ballistic Missile (SRBM) attacks on Indian air bases located within 600 km (aerial distance) of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India’s Ministry of Defence (MoD) annual report 2012 states, “Rapid infrastructure development in Tibet and Xinjiang has considerably upgraded China’s military force projection capability against India, and improved its overall strategic and operational flexibility.” Certain recent developments indicate that China has acquired capabilities to
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launch a short, swift war under its war zone concept (WZC) — application of force restricted to a war zone (equivalent to a military region). There will be many ways in which a WZC plan is executed. But certainly, one of the overriding aspects of its execution will be emphasis on pre-emptive and unexpected strikes, i.e., ‘structural destruction operations’ to offset India’s technically, betterequipped Air Force. Among other things, therefore, China would need to begin any war with a highly effective surprise strike against the Indian Air Force, and in order to do this it would like to prepare its air and missile forces for attack
June 2012
g FOCUS without losing surprise, to cause maximum damage not only to IAF fighters and bombers, but also to the runways on which these are located, in order to achieve its limited objectives as ingrained in its WZC. In the coming decade, the capabilities of China’s PLAAF (PLA Air Force) could begin to approach that of the USAF (US Air Force) today by way of indigenous production of fourth-generation fighters. Besides, China’s fifth-generation upgrade is only a few years away, as stated by Roger Cliff in his book, Shaking the Heavens and Splitting the Earth. Unlike in the past, Chinese fighter pilots today train hard through thick and thin for 200 hours a year to gain skills and experience. These skills and experience are then translated into readily-employable war-fighting doctrines. Together, with a growing battery of road and rail-mobile Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs), deployable along the LAC, the PLA is acquiring capabilities to launch a short, sharp war under its WZC. Among the many ways it can achieve this is a combination of SRBM strikes, followed by a wave of air force strikes. China has completed infrastructure development to complete mobilisation, concentration and assembly of 32 divisions in 20 days to launch a one-season offensive. But what concerns Indian military experts are some of the undermentioned capacities that can degrade India’s sortie-generating capability: ¾ It has operationalised eight airfields in Tibet with another eight in Myanmar providing PLAAF a variety of force-packaging options. ¾ All airfields can sustain fighter operations. ¾ Mid-air refuelling will overcome limitations of HAA airfields. ¾ It can deploy 15 X fighter and bomber squadrons in Tibet. ¾ It continues to enlarge and modernise its force of Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs). It is reported to be now in possession of 1400-1500 of
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them, adding approximately 100 each year to its inventory. ¾ A US Department of Defence (DoD 2008) report notes that China is now fielding SRBMS ‘with improved ranges, accuracies and payloads’. The two main Chinese SRBMs are CSS-7 (DF 11 A&B and M-11 for export) and C SS-6 (DF-15 or M-9 for export). The PLA’s Second Artillery has test launched the CSS-7 mod 2, single stage with a range of 600 km from the Da Qaidam Missile Deployment Area (DMDA) at the Delingha National Training Centre (DNTC), Qinghai province in successive years starting 2007 with the following highlights:
THE THREAT FROM CHINESE SRBMS IS SERIOUS AND INCREASING ¾ A total of 8 SRBMs in 4 salvos (2 msls/salvo) were launched within a span of 31 minutes during the last exercise in 2009. ¾ The time interval between 2 successive launches has progressively reduced from 10 minutes to one minute. Three types of missiles DF 11A & B (CSS-7) and DF 15 A&B (CSS6) have been salvo tested in tandem. ¾ DMDA has now become a SRBM salvo launching centre. DF 11 B is capable of carrying 800 kg warhead to a range of 600 km and has incorporated satellite navigation to improve accuracy. It is road-and-rail mobile. DF 15 can carry a 500kg warhead up to 600 km and is fully road-and-rail mobile, incorporates satellite-assisted navigation technique to improve
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its accuracy. It has developed several variants of DF-15 SRBMs, for greater target discrimination, providing tactical flexibility for China’s Second Artillery and has also developed a sub-kiloton nuclear warhead to generate a calibrated electro magnetic pulse blast intended to disable electronic infrastructure. Recently, the PLA undertook a live fire Air Force exercise in the Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), during which the PLAAF aircraft are reported to have for the first time stayed overnight at air bases and were reported to be using tunnels to come on to runways. All this has serious implications for India. Salvo launch of missiles from DMDA indicates India-centric roles. Through the salvoes the PLA is augmenting its capability to defeat India’s Theatre Missile Defence shield and pulverise air bases with a stream of ballistic missile attacks. In conjunction with aircraft, the PLA may launch pre-emptive ballistic missile strikes against Indian airfields and aircraft parked in the open, among other missions. Using the Qinghai-Tibet Railway (QTR), missiles may be brought closer to the LAC I, thus bringing most of Indian air bases close to LAC within range of SRBMs. Missile and aircraft tests indicate Chinese intent to increase strategic options against India in Tibet. With a Circular Error of Probability (CEP) of 65-100 feet, the CSS-6 is reported to have several warhead options, including high explosive (HE), nuclear, chemical fuel-air explosive (FAE), and sub-munition. US DoD estimates that the PLA has 120-140 mobile launchers with a CEP of 16-1000 feet and CSS-6 is reported to have 600 kg warheads of one of several varieties, including HE, nuclear and sub-munition. DoD reports that the PLA has 90-110 mobile launchers to carry CSS-6. Sub-munition warheads that the above missiles carry are ideal for attacking soft area targets including aircraft parked in the open. A specially-designed runway penetrating sub-munition is the
June 2012
g FOCUS Enlargement and modernisation of Short Range Ballistic Missiles (SRBMs) force reported 1400-1500 strong with the addition of 100 each year A US Department of Defence (DoD 2008) report notes that China is now fielding SRBMS ‘with improved ranges, accuracies and payloads’.
THE DRAGON’S WRATH Chinese capabilities that can degrade India’s sortie-generating capability: ¾ Eight airfields in Tibet with another eight in Myanmar which can can sustain fighter operations ¾ Mid-air refuelling that overcome limitations of HAA airfields ¾ Ability to deploy 15 X fighter and bomber squadrons in Tibet
CHINESEMILITARYREVIEW.BLOGSPOT.IN
PRIME TARGET: A combination of PLA SRBM and aircraft strikes against Indian aircraft parked in the open appears to be a strategy to negate and minimise the use of air assets by India
weapon of choice for cratering operating surfaces. Additionally, the wide dispersal pattern of sub munition warheads helps compensate for poor missile accuracy by creating a damage footprint far larger than produced by a unitary warhead of similar weight. In sum, a combination of PLA SRBM and aircraft strike against Indian aircraft parked in the open appears to be a strategy to negate and minimise the number of Indian aircraft, which can survive these pre-emptive surprise attacks to enable PLA to execute its WZC successfully. India, therefore, will need to prepare better and more hardened shelters and runways, particularly, in a scenario where its adversary is the attacker and relies on surprise by choosing the time and nature of such attacks. Such preparations, including runway hardening and better shelters, anti-aircraft batteries, modern air-defence weapons including surface-to-air missiles, must www.geopolitics.in
go hand-in-hand with other defence acquisitions of fighter and bomber aircraft, which are presently ongoing. There is no way that India can accept degradation of its sortie-generating capability, which the PLA’s recent efforts in SRBM’s and air force modernisation threaten. We will also do well to remember that its acquisitions of mid-air refueller aircraft
PLA MAY LAUNCH PRE-EMPTIVE MISSILE STRIKES AGAINST INDIAN AIRFIELDS AND AIRCRAFT
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will soon begin to overcome other limitations of effects of high-altitude area on its aircraft and other equipment. India will also need to significantly increase its own arsenal of SRBMs, besides investing in a viable missile defence shield. The threat from Chinese SRBMs is serious and increasing, especially as the advantage lies with the attacker. The PLA is not only incrementally adding to its arsenal of SRBMs, but also adding to their accuracies as well with warheads especially suitable to cut runways. Of course, the IAF will be able to repair runways and restore flight operations, in a matter of hours to a day or so, depending on the nature of damage done. But the PLAAF will still take advantage of the window of a few hours opened by the SRBM attack by damaging our air bases. (The author is Associate Fellow at the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi) June 2012
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WHICH ONE TO CHOOSE? The Indian Navy is looking for a suitable Medium-Range Maritime Reconnaissance aircraft
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PIB
Offsets to cross $ 4 billion
been signed so far with a value of about $ 4.279 billion. The offset contracts are at various stages of execution." The reply further said, "The offset policy was introduced in 2005. It is a relatively new policy and is in the process of evolution. The first offset contract was signed in 2007...The positive impact of the offsets on development of the indigenous defence industrial base (DIB) will be visible in the coming years." The Minister informed Parliament that capital acquisitions from abroad during 2010-11 was `15,443 crore and in 2009-10 the expenditure was `13,411 crore. Offset contracts worth $3.435 billion were signed for the Indian Air Force, whereas for the Navy offset contracts were to the tune of $843 million.
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Defence deals get a boost
The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) headed by Defence Minister A K Antony
has cleared procurement projects over `7,000 crore. These proposals will now be sent to the Finance Ministry for its approval. One of the major deals that got cleared was M777 Ultra Light Howitzers for the Indian Army from BAE Systems. This deal was processed through the US government's Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programe. The Ministry also cleared a proposal to acquire 65 radars for the L-70 air defence guns for around `3000 crore for the Army air defence. Proposals were also cleared for the purchase of simulators for T-90 tanks for `300 crore and a `90-crore proposal for 300 water tanks. An Indian Navy cadet training ship worth `480 crore was also cleared, in addition to 300 aerial targets required jointly by the Army and Air Force. www.geopolitics.in
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Since 2007, India has attracted offsets worth $ 4.27 billion from defence contracts. In a written reply, A K Antony informed the Parliament: "17 offset contracts have
BAE tests unmanned aircraft systems BAE System has started testing technology in the ASTRAEA programme that will help conventional aircraft engage in pilotless flights even in a bad weather and enable them to conduct emergency landings. The first test of the system was done on an unmanned Jetstream, a 31-seat aircraft recently, which was equipped with autonomous flight software and new cloud-detection technology to make it capable of avoiding inclement weather. Seven UK-based aerospace firms have come together for the ASTRAEA programme to accelerate the development of the unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) for the civil aviation jets. According to BAE's manager for ASTRAEA, Darren Ansell, the system has matured enough in the last ten months that it can be tested on an aircraft. He said, "The challenge has been understanding what you need to do to replace a human pilot. How do you describe what they do in emergency situations such that you can write a specification for a computer programme?" Lambert Dopping-Hepenstal, programme director of ASTRAEA, was reported in the media as saying, "We can't set up a whole new infrastructure just for UAVs so one has to prove that you can work it in today's world environment. The whole principle of ASTRAEA is taking a complete system engineering approach to the problem. There are many programmes looking at individual bits [such as] 'sense and avoid' but ASTRAEA I think is unique in trying to understand the total problems." ASTRAEA is a partnership between AOS, BAE Systems, Cassidian, Cobham, Qinetiq, Rolls-Royce and Thales UK.
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Leading automotive parts manufacturer, the Rane group, is looking for acquisitions in the defence and aerospace sectors. Group Chairman L. Ganesh told the media: "In the next couple of years, we are looking to make one or two acquisitions especially in the areas of mechanical and electronic systems for defence and aerospace." They are looking at domestic companies in the "`30-50 crore turnover size but with significant growth potential." The group acquired 26 per cent share in Bengaluru-based SasMos HET Technologies, last year. SasMos is into manufacturing wiring harness, cable assemblies and panel boxes. SasMos is developing control systems. The SasMos partnership with Rane has just completed a year. Ganesh informed that the sales at `25 crore last year is "marginally lower than planned but the business is close to break even. This year, we are planning `35 crore." He believes that the sales can reach to `150 cr in next three years. SasMos supplies weapons and equipment to integrators such as BEML, BEL and Israeli Defence companies. At the time of acquisition, Ganesh had said: "We feel there are significant growth opportunities both in India and as an exporter. This entry also opens a new knowledge base for Rane in electronics, which will have a synergy with the automotive industry."
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HEMANT RAWAT
Rane plumps for Defence Three new 'Firepower' deals
India has signed three contracts to increase the offensive and surveillance potential of infantry and Special Forces of Indian Army. One of the three contracts is for advanced sub-machine guns with B&T Switzerland for the "ghatak'' platoons of infantry battalions. Bharat Electronics, has bagged another contract to provide hand-held thermal imagers for Rashtriya Rifles. Alpha Design will provide laser target designators to the Special Forces . Both Tezpur-based 4 Corp and Srinagar-based 15 Corp are likely to get enhanced electronic capability that will involve a spend of close to `1000 crore. Government has formed an empowered committee, under the leadership of the vice-chief of Army, which is looking at equipping the 10 Para-SF (Special Forces) and Para-SF (airborne) battalions similar to battalions deployed in the SiachenSaltoro Ridge region.
Pipavav, Mazagon JV
Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering and Mazagon Dock have got into an exciting new joint venture (JV) that will see them build warships for Indian Navy. This is the JV that came under scanner and was stalled by Ministry after allegations was made by competitors. MDL is India's largest ship builders and Pipavav has one of the largest ship-building capabilities in Asia, in terms of length of the dry dock and tonnage capability. Originally announced in September 2011, the JV was withheld by the Ministry to study the allegations levied by the L&T and ABG Shipyard on the selection process. In a press release to the BSE Pipavav has said, "The Government of India has conveyed, vide its letter dated May 2, 2012, that Pipavav Defence and Offshore Engineering Co Ltd has been chosen as its partner for formation of joint venture to build warships for Indian Navy." The venture will be called Mazagon Dock Pipavav and will execute the orders that are pending with MDl, which is in tune of `1,00,000 crore ($21.69 billion). Nikhil Gandhi, chairman of Pipavav, has said, "This partnership is formed primarily to fast forward the process of warship and submarine contracts held currently by the MDL."
Forces to get optical fibre network
The Indian defence forces are all set to get an optical fibre based communication network according to Defence Minister AK Antony's written reply to a question in the Rajya Sabha. A proposal is being processed for this all-India network, which will provide the Army with a communication system independent of any radio communication. The forces will vacate the radio waves that they are using now. The cost of this network would be `5,236 crore in addition to the `8,098 crore approved by the government in 2009 for defence communication network. The length of this network will be 60,000 km and it will connect 129 Army, 162 Air Force and 33 Navy stations.
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June 2012
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g Astra Microwave bags 310-crore order Astra Microwave Products limited, which manufactures microwave and radar components, has received `310-crore defence offset contracts from foreign original equipment manufacturers (OEMs). The contract is for the supply of critical radar sub-systems to the contractor of Indian defence radar programme. Astra Microwave managing director B Malla Reddy said, "This is the first time we have bagged such a huge contract. It will significantly increase our topline." This is a significant order for a firm, which is expected to earn revenues of `200 crore this financial year. The name of the vendor was not disclosed as the company is under obligation. "This order shows that foreign vendors have faith in our small and medium enterprises. Such contracts will boost the confidence of the ecosystem," said Rajiv Chib, associate director, aerospace and defence practice at consulting firm, PricewaterhouseCoopers. The company is executing orders of `730 crore from domestic and foreign firms. Astra has backing of Strategic Ventures Fund, a private equity fund managed by Frontline Strategy Limited.
Record-breaking torpedo by Atlas
BEML overcharged
Bharat Earth Movers Limited (BEML) has been selling spares to the Indian Army at exorbitant prices according to the Army's internal assessment. Indian Army uses Armoured Recovery Vehicle (ARV) WZT3 supplied by BEML. These vehicles as per reports have not been indigenised and there has been steep hike in the spare prices by BEML. This vehicle is originally from Bumar of Poland, mounted on a T-72 tank chassis and has been operational with the Army for the last ten years. The assessment suggests BEML has charged 20-to-30 times more than the estimated value. BEML has not set up any manufacturing facility so far, and most of the items demanded by us are imported by the defence public sector unit and is fully dependent on the original manufacturers for the spares. BEML is not in position to provide for increased demand.
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Atlas Elektronik's SeaHake mod4 ER (Extended Range) torpedo set a new range record for torpedoes at 140 kilometres. SeaHake mod 4 is the advanced version of the DM 2 A4, which is operational with the German Navy, along with many navies of Europe and Asia. The system's unique propulsion and battery technology made it possible to exceed the maximum range of any modern heavyweight torpedoes in the global market by 50 per cent. This new version of the torpedo is also equipped with innovative navigation and communications technology, enabling extremely precise navigation and control of the torpedo over the entire distance. India has been operating older versions of ATLAS torpedoes since the mid 1980s on the "Shishumar" or 209 Class submarines.
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EADS booms EADS is having a good start to this year with a solid performance on the financial front in the first quarter. Defence business in the Western countries is undergoing recession but in spite of that EADS' performance in the first quarter is encouraging. The company benefited from good performance in Airbus, Eurocopter and Astrium while Cassidian remained stable. Louis Gallois, CEO of EADS, in a press statement has said, "Demand for commercial aircraft and civil helicopters remains healthy and our institutional business fared reasonably well despite European budget pressures and an uncertain economic environment. This led to better-thanexpected revenues and EBIT before one-off in the first quarter, which strongly confirms the level of our 2012 performance targets. Moreover, the Airbus team has found a permanent solution to the A380 wing rib feet issues. As we transition to the new leadership team, management will continue to have its sights set on key programmes, particularly A380, A350 and A400M heading towards the inservice phase. We will also continue to seek a satisfactory outcome to discussions on the future of government programmes."
June 2012
g GSL to make six patrol vessels Goa Shipyard Ltd (GSL) has bagged order to build six offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) for the Indian Coast Guard.
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According to a statement from Goa Shipyard Ltd the vessels are based on inhouse design of Goa Shipyard Ltd, which has considerable expertise in designing and constructing a range of patrol vessels for the Indian defence forces. These advanced patrol vessels will have an overall length of 105 metres with a displacement of about 2,400 tonnes. The contract for the OPV was signed between the ICG and GSL on May 9, 2012. These OPVs will be fitted with a contemporary Navigational Integrated Bridge System with Bridge Watch Navigational Call Up System, CCTV System for complete
surveillance, additional features like quick response boats for rescue and anti piracy, four-lane simulator for small arms training and many more advanced features. The hull would be the most efficient form designed by GSL and would provide for fuel efficiency, crew comfort and excellent sea-keeping qualities, a company statement said. The contract for the OPV was signed between the ICG and GSL on 9th May. These latest OPV will be fitted with a contemporary Navigational Integrated Bridge System with Bridge Watch Navigational Call Up System, CCTV System for complete surveillance, additional features like quick response boats for rescue and anti-piracy and fourlane simulator for small arms training.
Last Raptor delivered Lockheed Martin delivered its last F-22 Raptor to the US Air Force in a ceremony at the Lockheed
and distinguished officials and the US Air Force participated in the event. The final Raptor will join other F-22s in the Air Force's 3rd Wing at Joint Base Elmendorf-Richardson, Alaska. Over all, Lockheed Martin has delivered 195 F-22s to the Air Force beginning 1997, with eight Raptors used as test aircraft.
LOCKHEED MARTIN
Martin Aeronautics site at Marietta in Georgia. The US Air Force is the world's only fifth-generation stealth fighter aircraft fleet in the world. Robert J Stevens, Lockheed Martin's chairman and CEO, said on the occasion: "There is no longer
any nation that wishes us ill or any adversary who wishes us harm that has any doubt that their actions will have consequences — that they will be held to account and that our response will be undeterred. The very existence of this airplane — your airplane — has altered the strategic landscape forever." Lockheed Martin's senior leadership
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PROTECTING LIFE DuPont has opened a ballistics facility at Hyderabad. The centre will provide customers with ballistic testing facilities and help develop local solutions in the field of personal armour.
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agencies and security forces, with application testing facilities. The idea behind the centre is to provide support in developing solutions that can be tested under local conditions and against local ammunition. To help enlarge portfolio of Kevlar materials and solutions is suitable to local needs. Speaking on the occasion, Rajeev Vaidya, President - South Asia, DuPont, said, "DuPont is committed to bringing its science-powered innovations to meet the key global challenges of food, energy and protection in India. The DuPont Ballistics facility at DuPont Knowledge Center, India, exemplifies DuPont's belief of inclusive innovation and open collaboration, working with customers and partners in India and
ROHIT SRIVASTAVA
NEW ENDEAVOUR: Rajeev Vaidya (centre) President - South Asia, DuPont, speaking to the press at the inauguration of the ballistic facility in Hyderabad
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wisegeek.com
uPont has opened a worldclass integrated ballistics facility at Hyderabad, the first of its kind DuPont facility in the Asia Pacific region and fifth across the globe. The company is best known for its Kevlar ballistic and stab-resistant body armour used extensively in bullet proofs. The facility has a ballistics testing range, a 600-tonne helmet press and stab testing equipment and is located at the DuPont Knowledge Center in Hyderabad. It is a state-ofthe-art integrated ballistics facility, with all facilities housed in a single location. This facility will allow DuPont to provide its customers and end-users, which include law-enforcement
around the world to develop solutions that help protect those who protect us." Yati Waghray, Technology Leader at the DuPont Knowledge Center, informed: "Indian defence and internal security forces have unique and challenging ballistics protection requirements. This new DuPont ballistics facility in India will enable us to collaborate with our local customers and end-users and jointly develop appropriate ballistics solutions and applications for protective vests and helmets that can be tested under local conditions and against local ammunition using international standards, meeting the local requirements." The facility, at present, can only test 9mm bullets, which are used in revolvers and carbines. These are used in large numbers by the police forces and the Army. In the facility, DuPont also demonstrated the Kevlar's antistab capability. DuPont India markets a wide range of products in varied market segments and employs more than 4000 employees as of end 2011. With six production facilities in three locations the DuPont Knowledge Center in Hyderabad and the DuPont India Innovation Center in Pune, DuPont India has been growing at a double-digit rate annually in the last five years. June 2012
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GEOPOLITICS DEFBIZ
BLACKLISTING:
MoD SHOOTING IN INDIA’S FOOT Indian Ministry of Defence is under immense criticism for blacklisting foreign original equipment majors. They have been barred from doing business with MoD for ten years without being given enough chance to respond to the allegation. This has lead to litigation in court. The pressure of modernisation of armed force in these circumstances will be very difficult until MoD does some clear headed thinking, writes ROHIT SRIVASTAVA.
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June 2012
PHOTO: HEMANT RAWAT
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I
n the Defence Expo 2012, Defence Minister A K Antony said, “In the process of procurement, if it is established at any stage of the contract that there is malpractice, then we will cancel the contract. Even after signing the contract if anything is found, we will take action, we have very strong safeguards. We have cancelled many major contracts following corruption charges. We have very strong safeguards in the form of the integrity pact. Under the integrity pact, strongest action will be taken against anybody found to be involved in malpractice. We will protect our interest and money.” There could not have been a better place to voice his mind when the whole of global defence industry was present and was eagerly looking for policy
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BLACKED
OUT
A number of manufacturers have been blacklisted during Defence Minister A K Antony’s tenure. They are: 5 ST KINETIC A Singapore-based company — manufactures military land systems and interested in selling Ultra Light Howitzers to the Indian Army — has been blacklisted apparently for bribing Sudipto Ghosh, former CMD of OFB, for close quarter carbine manufacturing. 5 RHEINMETALL AIR DEFENCE Switzerland-based subsidiary of Rheinmetall AG (Germany) — keen to sell Air Defence Guns — also allegedly bribed Sudipto Ghosh for Selfpropelled Artillery MoU.
clarification from the Minister in-charge of the world’s largest ongoing military modernisation programme. But simultaneously, no place could have been worse than Defexpo to discuss this issue of malpractices in defence procurement. The irony doesn’t end here. India is in dire need of weapons and military technology and is very slow at making decisions. New Delhi can’t afford to alienate global defence giants. It needs to do business with them. This process of blacklisting is not going to help India. The strategic community, including the armed forces, is very worried with this method of blacklisting, which ignores present and long-term future requirements. In its press release, dated March 5, 2012, the Ministry of Defence said, “The Ministry of Defence today decided to debar six firms - M/s Singapore Technologies Kinetics Ltd. (STK), M/s Israel
MOD TENDS TO IGNORE THE RIGHT OF COMPANIES TO CLEAR THEIR STAND
5 IMI Israel-based manufacturer of Land Systems — a partner with India on many weapons contracts including Advanced Assault Rifle — believed to have bribed for advance payment for manufacturing plant for BiModular charge system.
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REHEINMETALL
5 T S KISHAN AND COMPANIES PRIVATE LTD AND R K MACHINES TOOLS LTD, LUDHIANA Firms with interest in supply of low-end ammunition and a contractor for OFB have been blacklisted for illegal gratification in the matter of various supply orders placed by Ordnance Factory Board (OFB).
Military Industries Ltd. (IMI), M/s Rheinmetall Air Defence (RAD), Zurich, M/s Corporation Defence, Russia (CDR), M/s TS Kisan & Co. Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi and M/s RK Machine Tools Ltd., Ludhiana from further business dealings with the Ordnance Factory Board, Department of Defence Production and MoD, for a period of ten years. The firms were recommended for blacklisting by the CBI on the basis of evidence collected against them. These firms were issued notice to show cause as to why action against them should not be taken consequent to the filing of the chargesheet in the case related to illegal gratification against former Director General of Ordnance Factories Sudipto Ghosh and others. The decision to debar was taken after taking into consideration their replies.” The Ministry in this press release has not clarified whether the ban was only on working with the OFB or with MoD. It doesn’t say anything clearly. In a reply to a Parliament question on blacklisting, the Minister of State for Defence Pallam Raju stated, “The Defence Procurement Procedure contains stringent provisions aimed at ensuring the highest degree of probity, public accountability and transparency. The Procedure provides for the mechanism of Pre-Contract Integrity Pact in procurement cases of the estimated value exceeding `100 crore, as well as provisions prohibiting engagement of agents or use of undue influence.” One question that arises out of the statement is, when the government is
TRIED AND TESTED: Even the government has acknowledged that the Rheinmetall Skyshield system is the best in its class
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June 2012
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IMI
going to scrap the contract if any malpractices occur, then what use is the contractual value? The Junior Minister further goes on to say, “In addition, Ordnance Factory Board Procurement Manual has been revised with the approval of the ministry and emphasis has been laid on developing new vendors through open competitive bidding for better price discovery mechanism.” Does this mean that till now it was not mandatory for the OFB to choose its vendors through competitive bidding? The Ministry’s response raises more questions than it answers. In any business proceeding, transparency is expected from both the sides. The blacklisted companies have been asking the government to give them time so that they can clarify their position. In its press statement, Rheinmetall Air Defence (RAD), a wholly-owned subsidiary of Rheinmetal Defence, said, “The Indian authorities have yet to inform RAD of the details of these allegations. Transparency with regard to investigations would enable RAD to put forward conclusive evidence that will refute all claims made against it. RAD is keen to cooperate with India’s authorities and to assist in any investigation related to the company.” (see also page 42) Almost voicing the same concern, IMI in its press release of March 29, 2012 said, “For reasons that IMI cannot understand, its offers to cooperate with the investigation were not taken, and proof of its alleged involvement in any wrongdoing was never supplied, despite repeated requests.” Sources in the industry suggest that the Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs) have been providing equipment without much indigenisation, and therefore have become a short cut route to defence contracts. The parameters of the government must be the same for all firms. Some foreign governments support their defence firms in their global business and also use them as strategic tools in global affairs whereas some nations don not interfere in the business and have stringent rules against corrupt practices. This is not a levelplaying field and Indian government needs to be more sensitive. In its report, the Parliamentary Committee on Defence said that RAD makes the best air defence guns. Then is it correct if the parent company, Rheinmetall
INNOVATIVE PRODUCTS: Several weapons have emerged from the crucible of Israeli research, like the IMI Wildcat (above) and the Micro-Tavor (below)
Defence, is blacklisted for one of its wholly-owned subsidiaries which has a separate balance sheet. What if a global major gets blacklisted, and it provides sub-systems through one of its subsidiaries to a weapons contractor? Then what options will the MoD have? Is it going to ask the OEM to change its subvendor to find a new vendor leaving the
BLACKLISTED FIRMS HAVE ASKED THE GOVERNMENT TO GIVE THEM TIME TO CLARIFY THEIR POSITION
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door open to numerous technical issues? Or will MoD scrap the deal? The effect of this blanket ban will be multifold. It is strange that the MoD, which talks of high ethics in business, tends to ignore the right of the company to clear its stand. The denial of this basic right has forced the firms to knock the gates of the courts of law. In its press release IMI said, “IMI cannot understand, and deeply regrets, that a decision, based on mere unproven allegations, was taken in its regard, and is confident that such a decision would not stand legal scrutiny. Consequently, IMI was left with no alternative but to vigorously seek court relief regarding the issue.” IMI has followed the STK example which went to court against the Ministry and got a favourable judgment. The STK was kicked out of the ultra-light howitzers tender, which was scrapped due to the blacklisting of the firm and the contract subsequently went to BAE systems through foreign military sales programme of the US government. This doesn’t set a good precedence. The Ministry faces immense scrutiny in the Bharat Earth Movers Limited (BEML)-Vectra deal, and as of now, the allegations against BEML are very daunting, and the way the Tatra deal has been executed throughout the contractual period, it deserved to be blacklisted, if the parameters used in the case of the six blacklisted firms are followed. Will the government take the same stance for its own firms? June 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
SPECIALREPORT
GOOGLE MAP
PINDIA'S ROTEMARITIME CTING INTERESTS
India has initiated the process for acquisition of Medium Range Maritime Patrol aircraft for anti-ship, anti-surface role. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA examines the different contenders in the fray
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HE INDIAN Navy's maritime reconnaissance capability is about to get a massive flip with the procurement of 12 P8I, long-range maritime reconnaissance (LRMR) aircraft from Boeing. The P8I is a specially-designed variant of the US Navy's P8A for India. This is considered to be the most potent maritime patrol aircraft in the world. The P8I contract is worth $3.1bn and all the 12 aircraft will be delivered to India within a
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span of two years starting from 2013. The Indian Navy is keen to have a three-layered maritime patrol capability. It plans to use smaller aircraft, helicopters and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for the survey of the near shore areas of lesser depths. For long-range surveillance, the Navy will be using the P8I with its 1200-nautical mile range and advanced sensors and radar. To operate between these two patrol ranges, the Navy intends to have medium-range
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aircraft with comparable capability to that of the LRMR aircraft. These mediumrange maritime reconnaissance aircraft (MRMR) with a range of 350 nautical miles will be armed with torpedos and missiles, for neutralising surface combatant and submarines. The Request for Information (RFI) was issued by the Navy in 2010 which received the responses by the end of the year. The Request for Proposal (RFP) is expected to be out in the next few months. Under the June 2012
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JAMNAGAR REFINERY HAZIRA
SPECIALREPORT
SURAT NHAVA SHEVA KOLKATA BOMBAY HIGH
MUMBAI PARADEEP
GOA SHIPYARD
KARWAR
VISHAKHAPATNAM
CHENNAI COCHIN SHIPYARD
TRI- SERVICES COMMAND PORT BLAIR
KALPAKKAM KAVARATTI LAKSHWADEEP leadership of Defence Minister AK Antony, the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) gave its nod on the 'acceptance of necessity' for this project in the last week of February this year. The Navy had initially decided to purchase six of these aircraft, but it is learnt that the required number has been increased to nine. It is also learnt that the proposal will come with the option for more aircraft, as has
been the case with other such tenders. It is worth mentioning that the Indian Navy's initial proposal was to buy eight P8I LRMRs with options for more aircraft. The Navy has, in fact, already ordered four additional aircraft and there are indications that India could go in go for more of these. Presently, the Indian Navy uses the Soviet era Tu-142s and IL-38s — both 1970s vintage — anti-submarine aircraft.
Along with Russia, India is the only major nation that is still flying these machines. With the rise in prosperity in Asia, the Indian Ocean is witnessing a rise in global maritime traffic through its sea lines of communications. The growth has brought in extra-regional navies into the Indian Ocean, including that of China. Since India has defined the Indian Ocean region as its strategic space, which is
NAVY‘S RESPONSE Aircraft are acquired to fulfil different capabilities and specifications in terms of range/endurance and weapon capabilities. It is just like having different knives in a kitchen. The P8I has been acquired to fulfill the capability of a Long-Range Maritime Patrol Aircraft with ASW capabilities.The Indian Navy will have more resources to meet the requirements of maintaining a comprehensive and persistent maritime reconnaisance cover over the maritime areas of interest of the country once we have a comprehensive MRMR platform. Layered scouting capability will enable the IN to develop and maintain better Maritime Domain Awareness. www.geopolitics.in
What the Navy wants? Multi-layered surveillance capability Request for Proposal (RFP) RFP expected in next few months Number of aircraft Navy is planning to get nine aircraft Capabilities Anti-submarine and anti-surface capability Other highlights Radar and sensors for tracking ships and submarines Range Within the range of 200-400 nautical miles with minimum 4 hrs of loitering time
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June 2012
g SPECIALREPORT
SAAB: WE ARE AN IDEAL PARTNER Combining endurance with capability, the Saab 2000 is an ideal partner for the Indian Navy's requirement of an aircraft with long range, extended time on station,
10, 2010. The RFP has not yet been issued to our knowledge. y Saab is proposing its Saab 2000 MPA adapted to the Indian Navy MRMR requirements. y Following the Indian investment for very long-range capability with the P8I for the LRMR programme, Saab is offering up to 80 per cent of that capability with the Saab 2000 MRMR MPA featuring stateof-the-art sensors and strike capability. It is perfectly suited for the Indian Navy MRMR programme requirements. y The Saab 2000 multi-role Maritime Patrol Aircraft equipped with the latest generation AESA and RBS15 Anti-Ship missiles is being offered to the Indian Navy to meet the growing challenges in India's maritime domain stretching across 2 million square km. being contested by China, it is pertinent that India has effective military control over the region through surveillance. Speaking to Geopolitics on the condition of anonymity one of the Indian
BOEING
BOEING: WE’LL EVALUATE!
y When the RFP comes out, we'll
review all the requirements and make a decision as to which aircraft we'll offer following full evaluation of the opportunity.
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SAAB
y Saab received the RFI on October
fast response, long-service life and anti-surface warfare capabilities. y The Saab 2000 MPA is a high performer providing significant operational flexibility for multiple operational scenarios. The Saab 2000 MPA has a cruising speed of Navy's recce pilots said, "The requirements of the Navy for the MRMR aircraft are dependent upon missions. The staff requirement will depend upon what kind of mission the Navy would like these aircraft to perform." Speaking about the mission profile, he said, "There are two kinds of patrols done during peace time: one is regular patrol, which is done periodically and another is specific search for any vessel within a defined area, which is based on specific intelligence. Rescue missions also fall under the same category." Every search operation is welldefined on paper and is planned numerically. The calculations are carefully done and are based on the capability of aircraft, sensors and operational requirements. All the parameters are well defined; the effectiveness of the aircraft is the function of its capability and range. As a navy officer explained, the only unknown factor in any maritime patrol mission is the weather. The operational capability required from any reconnaissance aircraft is based on the threat and range at which
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350 knots, it can climb to an altitude of 20,000 ft in 10 minutes, reaching operating area 1,000 nautical miles afar within three hours. It can operate from high altitude airfields, taking off with maximum load and fuel even at very hot temperatures. Flight safety is maintained throughout all flight conditions, including single engine operations, where the aircraft can maintain altitude at 20,000 ft. The Saab 2000 MPA can operate at a maximum range exceeding 2000 nautical miles, with maximum mission endurance exceeding 9.5 hours. The Saab 2000 MPA can carry out a mission covering a 200 nm Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) for 5.5 hours at an altitude of 2,000 ft, or longer patrol times at higher altitudes even up to 31000 ft. The aircraft on offer comes with promised 35,000 flight hours and a guaranteed support for 25 years by SAAB. it will operate. The required range is based on the total area which has to be kept under surveillance and in the case of India it goes far beyond our shore line. India also has islands 1000 km away from its shore line. The exclusive economic zone of India is 200 nautical miles from the shore line but when the island territory is added, the area of surveillance increases enormously. With its enormous range, the P8I can cover huge swathes of the sea. Naval sources informed that when it came to surveillance, the range was not defined in terms of an aircraft flying in a straight line. When any surveillance is done to pinpoint any submarine or surface vessel, then the area where the vessel is expected to be operating is selected and then, depending on the level of threat, the surveillance is conducted. The aircraft scans the sea within a welldefined area. The scanning is done by flying in parallel lines in a grid formation, covering the whole area. The factors which determine the intensity of scanning are line of approach and the speed of the vessel sought. The faster
June 2012
g LOCKHEED MARTIN
SPECIALREPORT
LOCKHEED MARTIN: WE HAVE A CAPABLE OPTION y We have received RFI from the In-
dian Navy for the Medium Range Maritime Reconnaissance (MRMR) programme in 2011. y The Lockheed Martin SC-130JSea Herc will offer an affordable and very capable option for the Indian Navy. This is an exciting opportunity for the Indian Navy to benefit from the synergies of operating an aircraft already in service in India y The Sea Herc will combine the proven performance of the C130J with the proven maritime mission systems developed by Lockheed Martin and currently flying on the P-3 Orion platform. The new variant will provide a wide spectrum of maritime patrol, and intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance mission capabilities using roll-on/roll-off systems. The variant also saves costs by leveraging existing C-130J fleet infrastructure, support system, spares and training. the speed, the further the distance between the grid lines. The range of any surveillance aircraft must be such that it can do intense scanning of the survey area. The range will also include the distance the aircraft has to fly to and fro from the destination. It is worth mentioning that no mission is flown for 100 per cent accuracy. Even in times of war, missions are planned to 90 per cent accuracy. Naval sources suggest that the cost of the operation and the efficiency of the survey are exponentially-linked. With www.geopolitics.in
increase in efficiency of surveillance, the cost increases exponentially, so patrols are never flown for 100 per cent accuracy. The efficiency of surveillance also depends on the capability of the sensors. The number of vessels that radars can track and detect can have a direct consequence over the aircraft's range. If the sonar and radar of the aircraft can detect and track a large number of vessels over a long distance, the aircraft will be able to do much more with less flying. Similarly the weapons suite and weapons' range play a similar role. This programme is expected to cost India $1 billion. The programme has created an avenue for many global aircraft manufacturers who are pitching
their aircraft in a big way. There are two arguments going around on the commercial considerations for selecting the aircraft. One argument says that continuing with the P8I will save money in crew training, infrastructure, maintenance, spares, etc as they will be same for both LRMR and MRMR programmes. Sources in the Navy suggest that this is a valid argument and that the 737, on which the P8i is based, is one of the most commercially flown aircraft and the chances of any sanction having any impact over this programme is very little. But sources also say that it would not be wise to put all the eggs in the same basket. The real picture will be clear only when the RFP is out.
ALENIA AERMACCHI : WE HAVE A GOOD MULTI-MISSION AIRCRAFT y Alenia Aermacchi would be very
interested in receiving the RFP from the Indian Navy for its future Medium Range Maritime Recoinnassance Aircraft and we are interested in offering the ATR 72 MP to the Indian Coast Guard for its programme for the acquisition of a Multi Mission Maritime Aircraft (MMMA). y The ATR 72MP is an enhanced version of the ATR 42 MP, a maritime patrol aircraft developed by Alenia Aerma- Alenia Aermacch cchi, with longer range and more capabilities thanks to the stretched fuselage and the improved Mission System using 4 workstation. y The ATR 72 MP can carry out with extremely low operational costs all maritime patrol roles: search and identification of surface ships, SAR missions; fight against drug traffic; piracy; smuggling; environment protection, EEZ patrol, and crew, paratrooper transport. The aircraft is provided with a door that can be opened in flight and with
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two observer stations equipped with large bubble windows. The aircraft is capable of Anti-Submarine Warfare. y The Italian Air Force has also signed the contract for the supply of four ATR 72 MPs for surveillance, maritime patrol and SAR. y The ATR 72MP will be equipped with an ATOS (Airborne Tactical Observation and Surveillance) mission system y The aircraft will be equipped with the latest generation of communication systems and a datalink for realtime information exchange between aircraft and command and control centres, and other sea or aerial platforms. The mission system is integrated with the aircraft's avionics in the new glass cockpit configuration, peculiarity of the new ATR 72-600 platform. The aircraft will also be equipped with a selfprotection system (chaff & flare dispenser, radar warning/missile warning/laser warning). June 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
INTERVIEW
“WE HAVE VAST EXPERIENCE IN BUILDING SUBMARINES FOR INDIA” DCNS, the manufacturer of the Scorpene submarine, is a global naval major. India is currently manufacturing six of these subs at Mazagon Docks Limited (MDL). ROHIT SRIVASTAVA spoke with Bernard Buisson, Managing Director, DCNS India, on the ongoing programmes and future business prospects in India absorbed this ToT and is today manufacturing pressure hulls with the same level of quality and sometimes faster than we do it in our own shipyard. There have been some initial teething problems in the project and we believe this is perfectly normal, due to the fact that Mazagon had stopped manufacturing submarines for ten or fifteen years. In less than three years, MDL has been able to regain the experience and expertise leaving those teething problems behind. MDL has now started the outfitting of equipment: this is a very important task and consists of installing all the equipment within cradles in the hull section. The first submarine should be launched at the end of 2013. The tests and sea trials
will be continue for 12 to 18 months after that and we are confident that MDL will be able to deliver the first submarine to the Indian Navy by the middle of 2015. On the delivery of the last submarine After the first submarine is finalised, Mazagon will be able to deliver all the remaining submarines at a rate of one every nine months. Eventually, the sixth submarine should be delivered by the end of 2018. On the air-independent propulsion (AIP) system Indian Navy has requested some information on technology, integration and performances of our AIP for the
DCNS
On the current status of the Scorpene submarine programme All the pressure hulls for the Scorpene submarines have been manufactured and now Mazagon is building the pressure hull for the fifth Scorpene. By the end of 2012, the pressure hulls for all the six submarines will be ready. This is a clear indication of the successful absorption of all the ToTs (Transfer of Technology) by Mazagon Docks Limited (MDL). The pressure hull is a vital component of the submarine. It has to resist and protect the crew at the depth of more than 300 metres. The technology involved for welding is very sensitive and critical. We are very happy to see that MDL has completely and successfully
HUNTER KILLER: After the success of the Scorpene submarines, DCNS India’s Managing Director Bernard Buisson is optimistic about the future prospects of the company in India
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Scorpene. We have provided the Indian Navy with technical details and we have indicated that the integration of AIP on submarines five and six could be undertaken without any impact or delay on the delivery schedule provided some conditions are met. A Scorpene with AIP is not exactly the same as one without it. The AIP module significantly enhances the performances of the submarines by allowing them to remain under water, without having to resurface, for a much longer period of time (around three weeks). On the next submarine line DCNS has been following and participating the RFI (Request for Information) closely for the Project 75 India programme and we hope that we will be one of the suppliers consulted by the Indian Navy when the RFP (Request for Proposal) is floated. We will, of course, be happy to participate. We hope to be consulted and be one of the competitors. We have invested a lot of time and energy to indigenise as much equipment as possible for the existing Project 75. We believe this experience of identification, auditing and qualification of various Indian industrial partners will help us in our response to the P75 (I) RFP, which will require very wide and in-depth technology transfers. As far as we know, three of the submarines are to be built at MDL, one at Hindustan Shipyard Limited (HSL) and two at the original equipment manufacturer’s (OEM’s) factory.
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On the Mistral-Class Landing Platform Dock (LPD) We have teamed up with a private Indian shipyard to propose together a solution for the Indian Navy LPD programme based on the Mistral-Class LPD. Three of DCNS LPDs are in service in the French Navy and have been very successful recently in operation theatres. The Russian Navy had a requirement for LPDs, which would be cost effective, and sea-proven and fulfilling all their missions. LPD Mistral was selected and their construction was started earlier this year. On DCNS aircraft carrier There is only one aircraft carrier in the French Navy. No decision has been taken yet for the manufacturing of a second aircraft carrier. The aircraft carrier that we displayed at the Defexpo is a new design. We are open to propose it and to cooperate with the Indian Navy or Indian shipyards to build the same. Our aircraft carrier is compatible with the naval version of Rafale.
On the Barracuda submarine programme The Barracuda is a new attack nuclear submarine for the French Navy. We are manufacturing six of those submarines, and the first one is to be delivered in 2017.
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the trial evaluation of ICAD in the presence of various other departments by the procuring agency. The time was so short considering the need of the equipment, that some of the trials were carried out concurrently. A test protocol was discussed in front of a committee set up for the purpose, and trials were carried out in the home country of the suppliers. The trials were concluded on a fast track because the urgency of the items was very high; the equipment arrived in India in the year 2009 and immediately a repeat order was placed. In the first instance, orders were placed for 666 pieces of ICAD and a repeat order was placed soon after for 333 more pieces for a total count of 999 pieces. Shockingly, it was found and observed that procured equipment had not been serving the actual purpose and that the equipment was not surviving in warfare scenarios. It was then sent for mid-course evaluation at the Indian Defence Laboratory, Gwalior, and was found to be a non-performing detector when it was exposed to various CW agents. The government was advised by interested parties that the DRDO does not have the competence to test this equipment. Naturally, the DRDO
DEFENSE.GOV
DEADLY THREAT: CBRN threats are one of the most lethal hazards for the modern soldier
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GEOPOLITICS
INVESTIGATION
FR.ACADEMIC.RU
n November 2007, the Technical Manager (Land System), Ministry of Defence placed a Request for Proposal (RFP) for Individual Chemical Agent Detector (ICAD). After a convoluted acquisition process, Environics Oy, a Finnish Company was chosen. The Environics website describes it as a company that “is a global provider of industrial gas detection and CBRN (chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear) monitoring solutions. We manufacture a wide range of products including hazardous gas monitors for ambient air, process gas and stack emissions, as well as government early warning CBRN detection systems. Today, Environics is the supplier of choice for industrial, government and military organisations worldwide.� For the uninitiated, it may be mentioned that, the use of ICAD is very critical and sensitive these days when uses of conventional chemical warfare agents, chemical accidents, terrorism or criminal activities are the actual challenges for soldiers and first responders. It is in use for detection of CW agents, like Nerve Agents, Blister Agents, Toxic Industrial Chemicals (TICs) I TIMs, Blood Agents and Chocking Agents. In June 2008, the equipment was ordered after what was obviously a flawed trial. A coordination meeting was called to finalise the schedule and modalities of
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There is little doubt that the opacity in defence procurement helps scores of scams to be brushed under the carpet. The latest involves the acquisition of hand-held sniffers against chemical and biological agents. Three years after the army procured nearly 1,000 of these machines, they have been found unworkable and there is now a desperate attempt to have them accepted. Are the lives of our soldiers so cheap that it doesn’t matter to the powers that be?
SNIFF OF A
SCANDAL
HANDY GIZMO: Individual
Chemical Agent Detectors are crucial in today’s battlefield
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bristles at this accusation and one insider said that “for an institution that has crafted the Agni and hundreds of other pieces of hardware, creating a test bed to check out ICAD hardware is hardly an issue.” What was inferred but not elaborated was that the test by the DRDO wasn't very suitable and they were now looking to find a way out of the mess. It is learnt that the equipment is now likely to be tested under conditions set by the suppliers and with their own test rig. This is akin to the judge and the jury being handpicked to deliver the verdict. Nearly four years after the first consignment arrived, the equipment is virtually in junk condition and waiting for a further round of tests before being accepted or rejected. The supplier has put a big question mark on our existing test facilities by giving his own test rig, whereas the DRDO- OPCW (Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons) Accredited Lab at Gwalior has tested similar kind of equipment based on similar technology for the armed forces in the past and even Indian Navy has done this test twice for its SICADS(ship installed chemical agent detectors). Then why is a special privelege being accorded to the the supplier to bring his own test rig and by whom? Giving these chances to accept the equipment is violating clauses of the DPP (Defence Procurement Policy). Non-performing equipment should be replaced immediately by the performing equipment or 100 per cent money back. In this case the poor soldier is left holding equipment that has failed to perform. While tests and retests are being conducted, his life continues to be in real danger. Here are a few questions that need urgent answers: z What action is contemplated if the equipment fails in mid-course evaluations? z How many further tests will be conducted? z Can we allow the supplier with his own test apparatus (test rig)? z How many times can we evaluate the non-performing equipment as per DPP? z What is the stand-by arrangement? z Are our testing laboratories at DRDO, which are OPCW accredited, not capable of manufacturing a small test rig which consists of a controlled chamber, steam generator etc, and costs hardly `6-8 lakhs? June 2012
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GEOPOLITICS
BIZINTEL
MUCH-HYPED FICV STALLED the gun and turret of the FICV vehicle. Since Rheinmetall has been blacklisted, what will be the future of the programme of the Tatas? Is it in trouble? Will they go for course correction? Are they reviewing their options? It is inconceivable that a programme of this stature can go forward without the participation of the Tatas. They are one of the country's premier automobile manufacturers, have a huge presence in the armed forces sector and are ideally poised to compete for this programme. The ministry under pressure is delaying the short listing of the vendors for product development till these issues are sorted out.
A Reliance Industries Limited (RIL)backed consortium has been awarded the `1,000-crore security project for Mumbai. In terms of numbers, this is chicken feed for the country's richest man, but what makes the deal compelling is that this is the first of the ones awarded to the private sector. Amongst those who lost out were Siemens, HCL, Wipro, ECIL and one or two from the public sector. Allied Digital Services Limited was the lead partner in the RIL bid, that includes amongst others, technology giant IBM. For Vivek Lall who quit a top job with Boeing to move to the uncertainty and the quicksand of the Indian private sector, this must be a top feather in his cap. Appointed head of Ambani's homeland security apparatus last year, Lall is in the process now of settling his team. The project will involve installing video-surveillance cameras, besides setting up command and control centres. Data servers will also be installed at various places across the city, including the National Stock Exchange and the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre. The Mumbai surveillance programme is Ambani's first homeland security project for which the Maharashtra Government floated the tender on January 23. Not o n l y the Central and state governments, but also big industrial houses, commercial and residential complexes want to secure their areas against terrorism and crime threats. Ambani is keen on capturing this vast market.
HC TIWARI
HC TIWARI
What will happen to the Future Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV)? This most ambitious of army modernisation programmes that has been touted by many as the critical marker that will move the infant Indian private sector to global scale in terms of scale and production wherewithal. But pray, what has stalled the FICV, and if reports are to be believed delayed by over 12 months? Insiders believe that FICV has got delayed by almost a year. The sources suggest the reason for the delay is the blacklisting of several defence firms (see story in this issue) just around the time of the Defexpo. Tata Motors, one of the main bidders has a contract with Rheinmetall defence for
VIVEK’S ON TOP
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TAC-COM SYSTEM ON THE ANVIL
ARMY.MIL
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on the L&T radar for months, has finally managed to best the formidable AM Naik, who has mighty friends in Delhi. In 2005, the Ministry of Finance struck down the MDL's plan to invest `100 crore in the Pipavav shipyard.
HEMANT RAWAT
After the completion of the MDL-Pipavav joint venture deal, talk in the South Block corridors is that the permission to this deal was inevitable, considering the formidable lobbying skills of Nikhil Gandhi. What an operator? Gandhi who was
PAPER ON DEFENCE MODERNISATION
ORFINDIA
The short-listing for India’s first Tactical Communication System (TCS) under the 'Make India' programme is being finalised. The two consortiums that are most likely to get selected are L&T-Tata SED-HCL and BEL. The final decision is expected in a month's time. The Expression of Interest was issued in 2010 to four groups. The contract will be worth `10,000 crore when executed. TCS will be deployed with the battlefield formation, ie, corp and below. It will be a mobile communication system: encrypted and unjammable. The idea behind this system is that during the battle, when the formations will be mobile, the communication system should also move and provide extensive coverage to the deployed units. The legacy communication system that Indian forces are operating at present is not suitable for modernday battlefield requirements. The TCS is expected to have a hopping frequency: the frequency of the network will change very fast, making it impossible to jam or intercept. The programme was envisaged in 2000 and it has gone through many ups and downs. At one point of time, it was expected to go to BEL as the government was concerned with the secrecy of the software-based frequency hopping sequence. But since then better sense has prevailed.
TALKS IN THE CORRIDOR
Last December, the government of India formed a Task Force under the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) to prepare a paper on how to achieve modernisation and selfreliance in defence. The Task Force is expected to submit its report by the end of July this year. The Task Force is mandated to suggest measures to enhance indigenisation in defence, including increasing Indian private sector participation; strengthening the legal and regulatory framework for the Indian defence industry; absorption and upgradation of technologies in the Indian defence industry; and, improvement of defence procurement procedures. The Task Force is headed by former Secretary (Defence Production),
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Ravindra Gupta. The Task Force has taken suggestions from all possible sources. They are in discussion with the Ministry of Defence, Defence Public Sector Undertakings, Indian defence firms, and are also referring to the previous reports and studies done on similar issues. Additionally, the Task Force invited several top private sector firms (we heard the number is over 10) who deal in defence, to send in their suggestions on how to improve the procurement procedure, ways to improve indigenisation, how to overcome the road blocks of the industry, etc. They submitted their suggestions to the Task Force by the middle of May. The team will call the firms for discussion and then submit its report to the government. The Task Force has not had any discussion with foreign vendors. The report will be submitted to the National Security Advisor by the Task Force and will then go to the Cabinet Committee on Security for its considerations.
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GEOPOLITICS
INTERVIEW
“WE HAVE HAD FULL SUPPORT FROM THE ARMY AND THE MINISTRY” ROSOBORONTERRA is a joint venture between PSL Limited and Russian land system manufacturers — Rosoboronexport, Motorvehilika and Uralvagonzavod. The idea behind this joint venture is to come up with a facility where the Russian land systems can be maintained and overhauled in India. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA met with PETER PUNJ, Principal Director of the firm, to know about his company On entry into the defence business PSL Limited manufactures helical submerged pipes and does a business of `4000 crore. We have got a very strong engineering background, because of which, we have infrastructure throughout India. We have plants abroad as well but we are focusing on India. Coupled with that, I took it upon myself to diversify it three years ago. We were rated the highest by the Defence Technical Advisory Services headed by Major General Mrinal Suman in an evaluation process for companies about to enter the defence business in India. Therefore, we went around and analysed benefits of the companies that flew over to look at prospective partners. Because of the report and our engineering expertise, technical and financial backing we were chosen by Russia. Now we are the only company that Russia will sign contracts with in the defence field (for land systems). I don’t want to get into procurement. We have been offered supply contracts but we turned them down. Rather than running after the business I have been running after getting all registrations, certification, documentation, authorisation all in place so that when the time comes there are no questions asked. As you know, we are in an environment where it is not possible to do anything totally transparent, especially in this field. So I wanted to make sure this is all www.geopolitics.in
done. Now we are coming into culmination. Our business and authorisations are coming to the final stage. We are authorised by FMCTC, which is the Ministry in Moscow. I cannot do anything until I have all these documents. The Ministry of Defence is pushing private participation. The Defence Minister encouraged private players in the defence business. So it seems this is a good timing. But there are drawbacks because of the big bureaucratic maze in India. If you want to go through that maze as we do, it is a very tedious process. Now some people want to bypass this — they might do well — they might not. But I would rather go through the tedious process through which we have been going. It was only after some time that we realised that we also fall under the 26 per cent category for Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Initially, we were to go with 49-51 per cent but now we dropped it to 26 per cent in which we have got Rosoboronexport, which is a major share holder and two other OEMs: Motorvehilika which manufacturers Smerch and Grad multi-barrel rocket launchers and Ural who are the makers of the T-72 and T-90 tanks. They are not only shareholders but also have members on the board. The reason we wanted them to have equity partnership is because it incentivises them. But I am told that if you can show some rea-
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sons, the 26 per cent share can go up. On current business plans Currently, we are working on after-sales services and maintenance of the Smerch systems. This is something where there is a massive scope for a private player. There is a dire need for Smerch to be overhauled. A number of presentations have happened. We represent the original equipment manufacturer (OEM). We are the sole authorised company to do this. We are engaged in after-sales support as there was a massive void in after-sales support from the Russians and it was voiced. I wanted to eradicate that, so I came to the Ministry and said look I would streamline your prices for two years. I would not escalate and would be able to do this with a secure order. The objective of this company now is simply after-sales support, maintenance and overhaul for all Russian-origin land systems equipment including, the spares. We have had full support from both the Army and the Ministry. We are the pioneers in this. Right now the Directorate General of Electrical and Mechanical Engineers (DGME)and Master General Ordinance (MGO) have to go through the Ministry of Defence and contact Rosoboron to contact Uralvagonzavod for spares — a process which can take up to two months. But if they make one call to me I will do all the work. It will be a one-stop shop for all the work. I am not June 2012
g INTERVIEW trying to replace the OEMs, I am just their arm here. We have full support from Indian Army and the Ministry of Defence but the process has to go through due course and diligence of the ministry. On how to achieve business objective We are a large shareholder in PSL Limited and we have got the official letter, board resolution to back the new venture. All kinds of assistance — be it financial, logistical or manpower — will be provided to ROSOBORONTERRA as and whenever needed. We have the support of Rosoboron who will send their people, provide machinery and intellectual property, etc. PSL’s infrastructure, financial backing and engineering skills and Rosoboron’s support are a perfect match.
(DPP) as it does not cover maintenance. We don’t have to wait for more orders like the government. I can stream finances through. If they call me up, I can call the Director General (DG) of the OEM and tell him that I am faxing him an order. I am not saying they are very fast, they too take time but I can speed it up and I can get the equipment in two months. The RFI (Request for Information) response to the overhaul of Smerch was completed in three months. For the upgrade of 505 systems, the process started in 2004 but final RFP (Request for Proposal) was issued in 2009 and the price negotiations are going on. It will take time, but at least India is moving in the right direction. As far as I see there are absolutely no drawbacks in private participation in defence.
HEMANT RAWAT
On benefits of this business model One thing I want to make clear with this massive business opportunity is that we are not taking away anything from the Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs). For example, overhaul of the tanks — over 762 tanks — is in backlog. I told Ordnance Factory we were not taking away their business, their backlog was enough for us. I don’t have to go through the Defence Procurement Procedure
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On actual investment We have budgeted around `150 crore and we have got 40 acres of land in Panipat. The infrastructure and engineers are all in place. The minute we get the contract, I will fly in a hundred people to train our people. Rosoboron is my partner and the OEM is also my partner. We have got some basic equipment if and when we get the contract we will get the specialised equipment. We have already got a team, which is already working on these systems. All our engineers have flown to the OEM. They have done all the research. All of that has taken place. Once the RFI/RFP is issued, we will erect the facility. We have got 40 per cent of machinery except calibration. Their investment (Russian partner) will be machinery and Transfer of Technology (ToT). Now step two could be a ToT and the manufacture of bogey wheels and tracks, which are in high demands. We want one business to culminate, which it will very soon, and then go to the next stage. Our next stage will probably be to manufacture high-demand equipment, which Russians have agreed to. We have mobile plants that can be disassembled and erected in Dubai in just two months. Our expertise in constructing plants is very high.
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PERSPECTIVE
THE ELUSIVE GUN With the arrival of cruise missiles and other precision-guided munitions (PGMs) on the Asian scene, the Indian Army needs quality air-defence guns, but the company providing them is blacklisted. This has created a strange situation, writes SAURAV JHA
rheinmetall
VAUNTED WEAPON: No indigenous solution is at a production ready stage in the class of the Rheinmetall Skyshield with Oerlikon 35 mm cannon
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ne of the lesser-known procurement casualties of the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) scam from 2009 was the Indian Army's (IA's) need to replace its existing air-defence artillery, till of course it proved to be a major highlight of the Army Chief's leaked letter to the Prime Minister that made headlines earlier this year. As alluded to by the Army Chief in that letter, 97 per cent of India's holdings of air defence (AD) guns are indeed obsolete and need to be replaced urgently. As it happens, the vendor chosen to partner with the OFB to meet this requirement has now been banned from any interaction with the latter for a period of ten years, thanks to the 2009 scam. The IA at the moment is scrambling to plug this vital gap and has issued a fresh request for information (RFI) for procurement of "air-defence
guns that have a calibre of more than 30mm". However the RFI may actually just be a reflection of the fact that there is only one suitable option that the IA wants and that option is no longer available. Circa 2008, the OFB was sitting pretty, what with a deal with Rheinmetall AD all sown up to license produce the 35 mm Skyshield AD system. The Skyshield with the Oerlikon 35 mm Mk 2 revolver cannon as its offensive component became a Rheinmetall product when Oerlikon Contraves was acquired by Rheinmetall in 1999 and rebadged as Rheinmetall AD ten years later. In a mounted configuration the OFB-produced version was to be carried by a Tata Motors 8x8 high mobility vehicle (HMV ). In all, over 2000 guns were set to be procured by the Indian Army. Unfor tunately,
the entire programme came unstuck owing to the then OFB chief Subir Ghosh's illicit dealings with six firms, of which one was Rheinmetall. Cut to 2012, we find the IA re-issuing an RFI for a system whose procurement was essentially a done deal. Nevertheless, it is instructive to look at the basic parameters laid out by the IA's RFI. According to the RFI, vendors looking to participate must take cognisance of the following specifications for their product: 1. Capable of engaging air targets both with and without a Fire Control Radar. 2. Capable of engage air targets during day and night using Fire Control Radar and Electro Optical Fire Control System (EOFCS). 3. Should be capable of being transported by broad gauge rakes of Indian Railways. 4. The preferred calibre of the gun is more than 30mm. Subsequently, the RFI delves into questions related to the operational characteristics of the gun and it becomes clear that IA is looking for a contemporary towed system that can be deployed all across India including the mountainous regions and is capable of engaging low radar cross section (rcs) threats, as evidenced by the need for an Electrowww.geopolitics.in
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Optical Fire Control System (EOFCS). However, it so happens that the only contemporary towed AD gun systems of the class that the IA wants with a caliber of "more than 30 mm" is from the Oerlikon/Reheinmetall stable. There is simply nothing else out there that will meet IA's requirements unless the IA is thinking of purchasing modernised versions of the Bofors L70 that it already possesses and is getting upgraded by DRDO. The new AD guns are after all intended to replace the
40 mm Bofors L/70 and the 23 mm Soviet origin Zu-23-2 systems, both of which are towed systems that can be mounted on mobile platforms, if necessary. The IA via this tender is obviously not looking for a self-propelled anti-aircraft gun (SPAAG) like the 9K 22 Tungushka, although it does intend to mount a fair number of the gun systems on a truck chassis. But again that is a very different kind of solution from a full-blown SPAAG. In a sense, the IA's preference for the Oerlikon 35mm Mk 2 revolver cannon system is understandable. Throughout the Cold War, various iterations of the Oerlikon's 35 mm twin cannons with designations of GDF-00x were a competitor to the Bofors L 60/70 stable and nonWarsaw Pact countries across the world had settled for one or the other. Oerlikon's research had revealed to it in the 1950s that 35 mm was the optimal caliber for an AD gun system. This belief seems to have universalised after the end of the Cold War and a number of countries that previously operated AD systems of different calibers are switching to 35mm-based systems from the Oerlikon stable. The Oerlikon 35 mm Mk2 revolver cannon is a descendant of the Oerlikon 35 mm twin cannons used during the Cold War and is optimised to fire Rheinmetall's proprietary Ahead airburst ammunition. According to Rheinmetall, "Ahead technology is a high-precision time-delay projectile. At the optimum moment, it ejects a lethal cloud of heavy metal pellets, reliably neutralising small and even very small targets — much the June 2012
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PERSPECTIVE
MAKING DO: The Army is upgrading existing Bofors L/70 (left) and ZU-23-2 (right) guns with a vengeance
way a shotgun shell destroys a clay pigeon." Clearly, it is a round that can destroy rocket, artillery and mortar (RAM) targets in addition to manned and unmanned aerial vehicles. The basic Skyshield system typically consists of two Oerlikon 35mm mk 2 revolver guns plus a fire control radar. The German Bundeswehr has incidentally procured the Skyshield for defending its forward operating bases from RAM attacks. Rheinmetall, over the years, has also advertised the fact that a truck-mounted version of the Skyshield is available which can be deployed without unloading the system from the truck. It also highlighted the fact that Tata is its partner for this configuration with a clear eye on the Indian market. But as we know, Rheinmetall AD is now banned from partnering with the OFB for a period of ten years. This then begs the question, what next? Given the state of the market, it is clear that the IA's current RFI is unlikely to have too many takers. The situation is compounded by the fact that no indigenous solution is at a production-ready stage in this class, unlike say the DRDOdeveloped bi-modular charge systems that will go into production at the www.geopolitics.in
Nalanda OFB this year. This is, of course, no small measure due to the fact that the IA has over the years found indigenous efforts by DRDO "inadequate" and unable to meet user requirements. The IA actually issued its first General Staff Qualitative Requirements (GSQR) for an indigenous air-defence gun way back in October 1985. The then Department of Defence Research and Development (DDRD), which administered the DRDO at the time, sanctioned a technology demonstration (TD) project for a towed AD Gun, ammunition system and associated technology, at an estimated cost of around `10 crore, with a time frame of five years. By 1992, an indigenous demonstrator with a rate of fire (ROF) exceeding the IA's initial GSQR was actually ready. But in keeping with the usual tenor of IA-DRDO relations at the time, the GSQR was revised looking for greater capability that the existing gun could not match. This particular segment of the TD was closed in 1992. Through the Nineties and early 2000s the IA and DRDO went through two more TD efforts, but again the GSQRs were revised time and again to make the indigenous effort not match up to 'user
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requirements'. An in-house staff project undertaken by DRDO on its own initiative that looked to upgrade the first gun developed in 1992 also failed to elicit a positive response from the IA. The IA had also switched its preference from a 30 mm to a 35 mm system by 2004 and the indigenous efforts till date have mostly been 30 mm systems. At the moment, the entire situation is rather fluid. As a stopgap, the IA is upgrading the existing Bofors L/70 and ZU-23-2 guns with a vengeance. Nevertheless, given the arrival of cruise missiles and other precision-guided munitions (PGMs) on the Asian scene, more precise AD guns capable of firing modern versatile rounds are required. Perhaps, the Armament and Research Development (ARDE) laboratory of the DRDO will once again be engaged to undertake a crash programme for a 35 mm system akin to the way in which it is currently developing a Towed Artillery Gun System (TAGS) for the IA with project completion deadline of about a year. Barring such an effort, it is hard to see how the IA will get any new AD guns via the procurement process it has begun with the recent RFI. One should keep one's fingers crossed. June 2012
TECH SCAN
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Akash test-fired successfully
The DRDO is not resting on its laurels after the successful test launch of the 5000-km-range Agni-V missile. Scientists are gearing up for the next generation of Agni missiles with a range of up to 10,000 kilometres. A report at ibnlive.in, quoting unnamed sources at the DRDO, said drawing and designing of the longer-range missile had already started. In addition to being launched from mobile launchers, the Agni-VI will have the capability of a submarine launch. Versions capable of launch from underground silos are also being developed. The missiles carried by the indigenously developed Arihant nuclear submarine will have a range of 6,000 kilometres.
DRDO's cyber defence programme
AWACS add-on by DRDO The Centre for Air-Borne Systems, a laboratory of the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO), has developed an indigenously-developed suite, which is one of the major components of the airborne early warning & control (AWACS) system. Releasing the critical Identification of Friend or Foe (IFF) component, DRDO chief V K Saraswat said: "It will be mounted on land systems, fighters and civil planes, aerostats, unmanned air vehicles and medium and longrange surface-to-air missiles."
Indian scientists at the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO) are now developing a cyber defence progamme aimed at protecting important Indian installations from the dangers of a cyber attack. According to DRDO Director KD Nayak: "The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is developing an indigenous technology to ensure networking systems are safe and secure. It has completed 50 per cent of the project to protect cyber networks in the country from malware and hackers." Defence and railway facilities and power plants are likely to be some of the first establishments to be defended by the innovative programme.
TEEXBLOG.BLOGSPOT.COM
10,000-km-range Agni-VI by 2014
DRDO
The DRDO-developed Akash missile has been successfully test-fired by the Indian Air Force (IAF). The integrated test range (ITR) at Chandipur in Odisha's Balasore district was the site of the maiden flight trial conducted by the IAF. The Akash anti-aircraft defence system, which carries a conventional warhead of 50 to 60 kg, can simultaneously engage several targets with the Rajendra radar developed by the Electronics and Radar Development Establishment. Rajendra radar can be used in surveillance and after it acquires a target, it tracks it and guides the Akash missile to destroy it as well. With a range of 25 km, Akash can reach an altitude of 18 km with a maximum flight speed of Mach 2.5.
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COTSJOURNALONLINE.COM
DRDO
Student innovators develop robots Indian commandos might soon have a new ally at their side: a robotic helper developed by the Gates Institute of Technology in Andhra Pradesh. The students developed these special vehicles with the help of grants from the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO). These unmanned ground vehicles can help the Special Forces teams by infiltrating buildings in critical situations and providing a glimpse of the situation inside. The trial version of the machine is equipped with high resolution video cameras that can
enter a building and beam the video to soldiers outside. The innovative programme, which also aims to be capable of being operated by an android phone, is expected to produce a usable product by the end of 2013. June 2012
MILITARYPHOTOS.NET
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THIS IS the highest number of Indian soldiers killed on the world’s
50,000 soldiers participated
IN EXERCISE Shoorveer, one of the largest military war games
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NUMBERSGAME
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BSF choppers grounded
OF A TOTAL of six choppers operated by the paramilitary force in anti-Naxal operations for want of service. The Defence Ministry was pulled up by a parliamentary panel for its failure to provide spare parts and technical support to the BSF’s helicopter fleet. The Indian Air Force and the Defence Ministry were both requested to end “operational constraints” which were leading to this problem by the parliamentary panel. Parliamentary Standing Committee on Home Affairs noted in its recent report: “The committee takes serious view of the
fact that despite a Memorandum of Understanding signed between MHA and MoD, the Air Force is not able to extend the required support in terms of pilots, technical manpower, spares backup and repair facilities to the MHA due to their own operational constraints. The committee is constrained to note that helicopters are not functional due to scarcity of spares. Such a situation should not have been allowed.” The chopper fleet of the Mi-17 is used for the transport of troops and it also flies sorties to help in anti-Naxal operations.
last two decades according to a report in the Times of India quoting Army sources. Most of the violations, including that of three Army officers, occurred in Jammu and Kashmir and the Northeast. The Army received more than 1,500 allegations of rights violations against its men after the institution of the human rights cell in 1993. Most of the allegations were found to be false and baseless. 29 out of the 485 complaints from the Northeast were found correct and out of the 995 complaints in Jammu and Kashmir, 961 were found to be false. On May 1, 2012, the Supreme Court asked the Army to decide whether it would exercise the option of court martial or allow its personnel, accused of staging a fake encounter at Pathribal, to be tried by a civilian court within eight weeks. The Supreme Court called the incident a staged shootout and sought prosecution of the officers involved. Army troops have been accused of killing seven people in a staged shootout at Pathribal in Jammu and Kashmir’s Anantnag district in an incident that dates back 12 years.
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in recent times. Based on the Integrated Theatre Battle Concept, formations and units under South Western Command participated in the exercise held in the Bikaner and Hanumangarh districts of Rajasthan. The exercise involved Army troops from infantry, armoured and artillery units coordinating their skills in the peak of summer. The exercise saw the involvement of Strike One Corps and Chetak Corps as part of a synergised ‘Air Land Battle’.
OF HUMAN rights violations in the
HEMANT RAWAT
highest battlefield in a single year after the 2003 ceasefire with Pakistan. Although there are usually about 10 to 15 casualties every year, the number shot up this year because of two accidents. Both India and Pakistan continue to suffer fatalities due to the frigid conditions in the Himalayan glacier. 150 Pakistani soldiers were killed in an avalanche on April 7, 2012 and some of the bodies are yet to be recovered. 950 Indian soldiers have been killed in addition to 12,000 casualties on the treacherous glacier since the Indian Army occupied the strategic heights in Operation Meghdoot in 1984.
Army men guilty
GEOPOLITICS
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Indian soldiers killed in Siachen
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1,00,000
crore
VALUE OF the market in rupees, for the Indian private sector that missile technology has a scope of creating, according to the scientists and top defence officials involved in the Agni V project. According to them, the figure could be as high as `2,00,000 crore, if the missile manufacturing capability of the Indian was backed by an advanced aircraft-manufacturing capability. Agni Programme Director Avinash Chander said that the participation of the private sector in the defence projects could help India realise its Vision 2030 for achieving self-reliance. According to him, with the active contribution of more than 150 companies, the development of the Agni V from the draft board to the launch pad took only three years.
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June 2012
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VALUE OF the soon-to be-closed deal for Swiss Pilatus basic trainer aircraft (BTA). The Indian Air Force has been using obsolete aircraft as there has been no acquisition of basic trainer and intermediate trainer aircraft for years. Pilatus PC-7 Mark-II emerged victorious against the contenders such as American HawkerBeechcraft’s T-6C Texan-II and Korean Aerospace’s KT-1. Allegations of wrongdoings had kept the Pilatus contract hanging but with Korean Aerospace’s representation being found “devoid of merit’’ the deal might now be put on the fast track after a green signal from the Cabinet Committee on Security.
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Pak terror camps exist
ON COMPLETION of 70,706 works as part of the Integrated Action Plan, under which development projects have been undertaken in 60 districts affected by Naxal violence, according to Home Minister P Chidambaram. The Minister claimed that the Integrated Action Plan, which aimed at developing infrastructure for Naxal-hit districts, had been a success. The plan aimed at bringing development work to 78 tribal and backward districts. According to the Home Minister, 48,992 works, like building schools, culvert and community centres have been completed. Additionally another 20 Naxal-affected districts will get additional central funds from the Home Ministry.
RANGE OF incoming missile that can be destroyed by the missile shield developed by the Defense Research Development Organisation (DRDO). Two cities can be protected by the versatile anti-ballistic missile system that can be put in place at short notice. There are plans to upgrade the system to cover missiles up to a range of 5,000 km by 2016. DRDO chief VK Saraswat told PTI that long-range radar and tracking devices, real-time data-link and mission control system, which were the elements required for such a missile system had been “realised” successfully.
15,433crore DEFENCE EXPENDI TURE of India between 2010 and 2011. This was an
ACCORDING TO a statement given to the Lok Sabha by Minister of State for Home Affairs Jitendra Singh, the majority of these camps were active and a reminder of the refusal of Pakistan to rein in terror groups. In his statement he said: “Government continuously monitors all developments having a bearing on India’s national security and takes all necessary steps to safeguard it.” The MoS also added that there was no information to point to the existence of functional terrorist infrastructure in other neighbouring countries like Myanmar and Bangladesh.
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3,300 crore spent
kms
DRDO
2,900
2,000
increase of `5,266.93 crore as against the defence expenditure in 2007-08. In written reply to a question in Parliament Defence Minister A K Antony said, “The Stockholm international Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has reported 38 per cent increase in the value of arms imported by India during 2007-11 as compared to 2002-06.” Antony also added that the purchase of defence equipment, from abroad as well as from home-grown sources, was in accordance with the modernisation programme of the armed forces such as the Long Term Integrated Perspective Plan (LTIPP), Five Year Services Capital Acquisition Plan (SCAP) and Annual Acquisition Plans (AAPs). According to the offset clause of the Indian government an obligation of 30 per cent offset has been imposed for acquisitions worth `300 crore or more. June 2012
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COVERSTORY
"Do not invoke conspiracy as explanation when ignorance and incompetence will suffice, as conspiracy implies intelligence" — Robert J Hanlon
S
tephen Cohen and Sunil Das Gupta may well have got the key strategic issue right in their wellreviewed but functionally errorridden 2010 book about the Indian Politico-Military establishment: Arming without Aiming (Brookings Press, 2010). Overlook their mixing up between "generations" of Indian tanks one quote says it all: "India's modernisation has lacked political direction and has suffered from weak prospective planning, individual service-centric doctrines, and a disconnect between strategic objectives and the pursuit of new technology." The ambivalent Arjun tank status, almost 40 years after the idea of an Indian main battle tank (MBT) was first propagated in 1972, serves to prove the CohenDas Gupta hypothesis of arming without
aiming right in many ways, and needs our detailed scrutiny because of where it has placed the Indian Mechanised Corps as well as the future direction of growth of this key war-fighting force-multiplier. Those currently charged with the huge responsibility of militarily defending the sovereignty of India against external threats are thus left with little choice but to "Bite the Bullet". In other words, "make the best of what is available", with a wry smile and a hope, however remote, that a "Silver Bullet" is still possible. THE ARJUN TANK DEVELOPMENT The tank profile of the Armoured Corps before the Indo-Pak War 1971 wasn't encouraging at all. The Korean War vintage Centurion Mark 7, a 50-tonne behemoth armed with its deadly accurate "20 pounder" gun, had adequate protection but poor mobility at a power-toweight ratio of 13 hp/tonne. It had performed well in developed terrain during the 1965 Indo-Pak War and again during the 1971 Indo Pak War but was not con-
THE ARJUN
SAGA
RAJ MEHTA traces the Byzantine, sometimes quixotic tale of the Arjun tank's development; its linkages with the T-90S tank; the sorry tale of tank ammunition and the supporting logistics needed for optimum mechanised performance, and, not the least, the opportunities that wait for exploitation by Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO), Ordinance Factory Board (OFB), civil industry in India, and, most importantly, by our future mechanised forces. www.geopolitics.in
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sidered "desert worthy". In October 1970, therefore, a brainstorming symposium was held on the Indian Main Battle Tank (MBT) at the Armoured Corps Centre, Ahmadnagar with apex users, DRDO, Quality Assurance and Defence Production representatives attending. The General Staff Qualitative Requirement (GSQR) Order No. 326 was issued in August 1972. The document took on the contours of the later aborted US MBT-70, the XM-1, the British Chieftain/ Challenger, the German Leopard, the Swedish S tank and, later, the Israeli Merkava. The MBT at formulation was a smorgasbord of ideas, but without a design philosophy around which MBT's are built. Named "Project Chetak", the builder, Combat Vehicle Research and Development Establishment (CVRDE), was allotted `15.50 crore in May 1974, for prototype development by 1984. This author came on board Project Chetak in 1977 as a young captain on operational staff to Brig BC Joshi (later Army Chief). Sent to prepare a brief for the Corps Commander, Lt Gen KV Krishna Rao (later Army Chief and Governor), who was proceeding as the Deputy Chief with oversight mandate of Project Chetak, I did my job and have been "on the loop" of the Arjun Project since then; never intimately involved, yet aware of the tanks trials, tribulations and recent, "coming of age". Progress slippages are pithily encapsulated by an incident involving the then Defence Minister Bansi Lal. On a tank factory visit to review progress, he was shown the drawing board design of the new tank and retorted: "Mujhe June 2012
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DRDO
tum koi cheez dikhao" (show me something tangible), before storming out. During the period 1978-1982, postlengthy consultations with the DRDO, the Army issued a fresh GSQR No 431 in August 1982. DRDO commenced system configuration and engine testing in 1979 and proof-fired the gun. A prototype hull in mild steel fabricated to check the fitment and assembly. The period 1980-85 was employed for limited field technical trials by DRDO. In 1984, General AS Vaidya, the then Army Chief, realised that Chetak, while a fleet-footed wonder horse, died due to serious rear leg injuries though he brought Maharana Pratap to safety from the Haldighati battlefield, and renamed the tank as Arjun. Slippages, however,
continued leading. Changes in tank technology compelled the user to formulate a new GSQR No. 467 in November 1985. In 1993, six field-tested Arjun tanks were formally inducted into the Army. PM PV Narasimha Rao dedicated MBT Arjun to
VALIANT WARRIOR: A dispassionate analysis reveals that the Arjun, in user perception, has "a serious reliability problem".
g COVERSTORY the nation in January 1996. The project closed at well over `300 crore, with the Army in 2002 placing orders for 124 Arjun tanks. User satisfaction remained ephemeral all through, with Sam Rajappa concluding his 2004 editorial in The Statesman: "To assuage fears that the T-90 induction would cripple the indigenous programme, the Army has placed an order for 124 Arjun tanks. This was done for political reasons rather than convictions based on the trial(s) of (the) Arjun…" Meanwhile, the unacceptable delay from the 1990s to the 2000s had prompted the Indian Army to induct the Russian T-90S tank to meet its operational needs. This led to a lot of disquiet in the DRDO fraternity as also in the MoD, with some players taking extreme positions. The 2007-early 2010 period was also full on recriminations on both sides not worth recording. THE ARJUN VERSUS THE T-90S MBT This writer finds it reprehensible to compare two MBTs that belong to two different weight classifications. The Arjun, at 62 tonnes, is almost 15 tonnes heavier than the T-90S, with the Arjun being a potentially state-of-the-art tank, when fully developed. Clearly, both tanks have their advantages and liabilities. It is embarrassing to note the glibness with which some analysts and experts put Arjun in the same class as the Abrams and Merkava, both of which have not just produced thousands of battletested/hardened improved variants and combat support derivatives. They also have reliable spares and repairs systems in place; something that the Arjun cannot understandably boast of yet, being in its formative operational deployment and product-improvement phase. The Arjun MBT is the heaviest tank in our inventory, but, on the positive side, is agile at a power-to-weight ratio of 24 hp/tonne. Its agility surpasses the US Abrams and Israeli Merkava MBTs. In terms of gunnery and gun-barrel life, the Arjun is in a class by itself, though the hydro-pneumatic suspension that makes superior gunnery possible is more defectprone than the conventional suspension systems. The Arjun's "hunter-killer" option will allow the tank commander and gunner to acquire and engage different targets with panache when installed and tested. The Arjun is also superior in crew comfort and surveillance watch. www.geopolitics.in
The clear military advantage of the T90S obviously lies in its lighter weight; therefore, almost universal applicability across differing terrains, its easy strategic mobility; well-established mission reliability and ease of repairs and spares/special tools being, overall a vastly improved tank of the T-72 family. It also has currently better protection because of the Kontakt-5 Explosive reactive Armour Panels (ERA). See the two tanks from a realistic, "hands on" perspective; from the eyes of the tank crews, the troop, squadron commanders and the COs and you get the feeling that the Arjun has much promise but, equally, lots to deliver that must be tested by tank crews before they give a "thumbs up".
ARJUN IS THE HEAVIEST TANK IN OUR INVENTORY, BUT ITS AGILITY SURPASSES THE ABRAMS AND THE MERKAVA THE HOOPLA OVER ARJUN "VICTORY" OVER THE T-90S While sections of the media have written with an untrammeled "The Empire Strikes Back" kind of glee, about this "landmark" victory, the success, coveted though it is, actually needs careful and objective study. Although the "tank philosophy" for the Indian Army, like so many other critical inputs, remains unstated over the last 40 years of the Arjun's development, and the early goalposts have thrice shifted, by issue of revised GSQR's, a few things make for sober reiteration. The Arjun, because of its "signature" is so far, a "desert specific" tank with limited use elsewhere along the Indian borders because of its strategic handicaps and poor infrastructure that will inhibit its mobility. The tanks, thus need "not" have competed since they fulfil different combat roles; the Arjun mission severely limited by terrain and the T-90S tank mission applicable across most terrain configurations. With three strike Corps available to it and a fourth planned for high-altitude areas
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where, in some cases, tank runs may be available, the broad message cannot be misinterpreted: The Army seeks the T-90S and its later variants, not the Arjun, as its weapon platform of choice for its strike corps. Second, the Arjun and its variants are some time away from gaining the blind user confidence that a soldier must have in his weapon platform for reasons elaborated earlier. The Army, in giving conditional clearance for more Arjun induction, clearly pointed out 93 modifications; 19 of them major — a sobering feedback for the most optimistic DRDO scientist! Third, a careful "read between the lines" or "watch-my-lips" interpretation of recent DRDO statements indicates that indigenisation is not just some way off, but will be prohibitively costly. Tank manufacture needs a "systems approach" of the kind MBT-producing nations the world over have institutionalised by treating MBT manufacture as a complex; truly integrated national effort rather than being obsessively government-driven. The USA offers a great example wherein the government Abrams tank assembly plant is run privately. In Israel, a large number of private companies, national and international, are helping build the Merkava and, in France, the Leclerc is being made privately. Another very revealing issue that has escaped media/think-tank scrutiny is that, having claimed stunning success over the T-90, the new DRDO-driven FMBT (Future Main Battle Tank) is ironically and for unexplained (but perfectly valid reasons) reducing its weight by as much as 30 per cent (to around 50 tonnes as opposed to 66 tonnes for the Arjun Mark II). This FMBT is obviously something that seems to have visibly excited the Army, not just because the Arjun "victory" has proved that the DRDO has finally got its act together, but also because of the DRDO assertion that the FMBT will be fully indigenous and its mated Future Infantry Combat Vehicle (FICV ) will be produced by military-civil industry, with DRDO providing oversight, a win-win situation for all players. The FMBT and its derivatives could thus be the logical successors to the T-90S. RECENT ARJUN DEVELOPMENTS — THE ARJUN MARK II DRDO reported in end 2011 that the Arjun Mark II would be fielded for trials in June 2012. Interestingly, the new variJune 2012
g COVERSTORY ant will be "4 tonnes heavier" at 66 tonnes, as it enhances crew protection, as well as individual mobility through minefields. The sighting system, earlier with limited night capability will allow the commander and gunner to work in tandem in day/night mode to acquire and engage targets. The LAHAT missile (`10 lakh a missile at 1999 rates) firing will also be put on trial. DRDO Chief VK Saraswat said that the Arjun Mk-II would have 90 per cent indigenous component. These and other improvements however come at prohibitive cost. The Arjun Mark I costs `18 crore each, whereas Mark II will cost `37 crore. The T-90S costs `16 crores a piece. The latest version of India's MBT, Arjun Mark II. It may be noted that the Arjun tank during its period of development has escalated in weight from 40 to 62 tonnes, with its Arjun Mark 2 version weighing 66 tonnes. The Arjun, nevertheless, is today a topclass tank in its class. With current critical components outsourced to Russia, Israel, Germany and others, it needs ruggedisation and logistics back-up of world-class standards. Arjun variants such as a selfpropelled (SP) howitzer, a sliding Bridge Layer Tank (BLT) prototype and an Armoured Engineering Vehicle are under development. Prototype of Sliding Arjun Bridge Layer Tank (BLT) What is embarrassing is that that there is no public reference to the Arjun tank design philosophy. A dispassionate analysis reveals that the Arjun, in user perception, has "a serious reliability problem". No tanker in the world would like to enter combat, uncertain about how his tank will cope in an environment where split-second responses are the arbiters between life and death. The Vijayanta fiasco is still too fresh for both the DRDO and users to remind us that though we have quality scientists, the
jugad orientation and national will, we do not as yet have the technical base, integration, logistics support and the scientific 'temper' needed for handling this complex task. THE INDIAN FUTURE MBT (FMBT) The DRDO, heady with its "victory" over the T-90S, is now agog with what it calls the Future Main Battle Tank (FMBT) as well as its mated ICV, the FICV. Tentatively priced at `25 crore a piece, Dr VK Saraswat says that the FMBT will have a 10-year development cycle; will weigh a tad more than the T-90S and be fully indigenous. Preliminary GSQR consultations have begun. The tank is expected to have a digital battle management system that delivers even in nuclear attack mode when tanks must remain "closed". The FICV details are still being threshed out but it is believed that the FICV may get manufactured in the civil industry sector with DRDO/OFB oversight, though the FMBT will be made at the HVF Avadi. LOGISTICS QUAGMIRE Arjun Logistics Implications The Arjun weight/dimensions degrade its strategic movement. Indian Railways has started manufacturing special Arjun-fit BWTA wagons, but Over Dimension Gauge (ODG) and speed problems remain. The BEML P-80 Arjun trailers are currently under development and existing tank transporters need major modifications to carry the Arjun. Arjun movement in developed terrain is inhibited due to its Class 70 bridge classification. An equally serious grassroots' issue is the Arjun spares inventory, its distribution and easy availability. This affects the Mean-Time-To Repair (MTTR). Reliability being an issue, the Mean-Time-Between Failure (MTBF) is currently discouraging. No public input is available on presence of ZIP sets; a brilliant Russian collation of critical spares and tools worked out assiduously for "brick" allotment to combat units. For the crew, presence of these
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Abrams MIA2 Through its over 15-year troubled development-cycle and well into its 28th year of series production, the tank philosophy has remained focused on "survivability" against direct hits from a Russian T-80, T90 firing conventional anti-tank rounds or missiles. This single aspect has driven the development of its protection, fire power and mobility. The 62-tonne Abrams (2011 cost $ 6.21 million per tank) was developed by Chrysler Defence (now General Dynamics Land Systems or GDLS) as a successor to the MBT-70. The tank entered US Army service in 1980. Production at the government-owned, GDLS-operated Lima Army Tank Plant was joined by vehicles built at the Detroit Tank Plant. Over 9000 Abrams tank have been made so far. The Abrams was combat tested during the 1991 Gulf War. A total of 80 Abrams have been hit in combat (many recycled back after repairs) in the Gulf and Iraq Wars as of March 2005. Due to perceived vulnerability in urban combat, a Tank Urban Survival Kit, or TUSK, is now being issued. Abrams has "strategic mobility" and can be carried by air, rail and road. The tank today has a family of 16 variants/derivatives all in use. murdoconline_1.net
WAR VETERAN: The M1A2 Abrams tank today has a family of 16 variants/derivatives in use
‘Combat proven’
g COVERSTORY enablers spell "reliability" and blind faith. This is a non-negotiable requirement for crew morale in war. Training of personnel in specialised repair/faultfinding, inventory management and storage are also current areas of concern.
Virendra Singh
Dismal Overall Logistics Outlook The chilling Kargil War statement made by then COAS, General VP Malik: "We will fight with what we have", continues to haunt us. Our logistics nightmare runs the whole spectrum from poor planning, laggardly purchase, convoluted procedures to poor quality control, transportation, safety, lack of timely utilisation, placement of fresh supplies, poor manufacturing practices, systemic inability to absorb state-of-the-art manufacturing technology by defence PSUs, and, not the least, poor storage norms that grossly violate stringent climate, moisture and access control norms. Violations have, over the years, led to colossal losses and write offs of costly tank and artillery ammunition/missiles. Though all indications exist that defence PSUs be radically restructured, most continue to thrive in mediocrity and political largesse/vote-bank support. Ammunition Blues It is well known that India had to scramble to import 50,000 rounds of 155 mm ammunition for its Bofors guns, besides other weapons and equipment. Today, we are in a worse-off state on almost all counts. Also, ammunition has a shelf life of about 12 to 15 years, at the end of which it is downgraded for training. Hence, shortages continue to increase every year if timely replenishment is not done. The meagre funding allotted is often surren-
dered due to bureaucratic red tape, scams and frequent blacklisting of defence firms. Overall, the National Security Council, which has defence planning responsibility, rarely meets, leaving defence plans languishing. THE WAY AHEAD There can be no better reality check than Hanlon's razor in accounting for the logjam of which the Arjun is such an unfortunate but prominent part. To shift gears from resignedly "Biting the Bullet" to aggressively creating a "Silver Bullet" — a simple, synergised solution that works; we need to shed old mindsets and work on our strengths. In this connection, a few bullet points are being made: No self-respecting nation in the world aiming to be self-reliant, (least of all one that has the kind of aspirations that India 2020 has) can afford to have its key warlike equipment in the control of another nation. The USA, the UK, China, Russia, Germany, France, Japan, Israel, all have indigenous tanks. India cannot afford the luxury of ignoring this reality. The DRDO in many spheres has come of age and needs moral and material support as well as intimate industry interface. Even in technologically-advanced countries — the development cycle for the Abrams, Leopard, Le Clerc, Stank and Merkava has invariably exceeded 10 years and involved in cost overruns and design changes. The real difference between them and us is to set systems right to avoid the same errors. The Arjun does not subscribe to a focused tank philosophy in line with our ground realities;
‘Versatile’ T-90s
The T-90 is a Russian third-generation MBT that is an upgrade of the T72. The tank has nine variants of which the Bhishma is one, and four derivatives: BLT, Mine Clearance, and Combat Engineering and Recovery vehicles. Russia is now developing the T-99 Armata tank as the successor of the T-90 which will be fielded by 2015. In 2001, India bought 310 T-90S tanks from Russia. The T-90 was selected because it is an improved T72 which India already employs with 60 per cent logistics commonality with T-90, simplifying training and maintenance. India bought the T-90 after the delay in production of the Arjun and to counter Pakistani deployment of the Ukrainian T-80UD. A follow-on contract, on October 26, 2006, for another 330 improved T90M "Bhishma" MBT's. A third contract was signed in December 2007 for 347 upgraded T-90Ms, to be license-assembled by Heavy Vehicles Factory (HVF) Avadi. The induction of the tank was far from smooth, with quality control and overheating problems affecting its thermal-imaging systems which were not adequately tropicalised. Ammunition was another issue, including missiles, as were the initial stocking guides for spares management. Another problem, this time user-driven, was over-exploitation for demonstrations/exercises. HVFassembled tanks from Russian kits suffered the same problems. Defence PSU manufacture of tank ammunition has also gone through a tortuous learning loop.
ALL- AROUND PERFORMER: The clear military advantage of the T-90S obviously lies in its lighter weight; therefore almost universal applicability across differing terrains
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g COVERSTORY our geo-strategic compulsions, terrain, infrastructure, economic and climate constraints, our R&D capability and our assessment of the capabilities, current and projected of our potential enemies. This needs correction. In MBT-producing countries, the user-developer interface is not that of "they" and "us". The GSQR is formulated involving all players ab initio. The Vijayanta/Arjun mistakes are too costly to bear mindless repetition and FMBT is a great example to hereafter follow. A systems approach should be de rigueur. It is worth mentioning that, unlike Western nations, the East European bloc headed by Russia have developed a basic tank design and consistently improved upon it. The T-72 has evolved into the T-90. This has positive fallouts on training, inventory control, maintenance and repair. While "re-inventing the wheel" in today's world seems retrograde and quixotic, it needs to be remembered that no country will hand over its technological expertise on a plate. There is, thus, no escape from developing a scientific R&D temper in the DRDO, user, as well as encouraging private industry with funding and work to make us truly self-reliant.
The development of the Merkava family of tanks/variants dates back to 1965 when Israeli Research and Development (R&D) initiated development of the indigenous Sabra. The British offered co-development in 1967 but withdrew in 1969. Israel completed the initial designs of the Merkava and in 1978, the first 30 tanks were delivered to the Israeli Army. Throughout its 13-year initial development cycle, the Israeli tank philosophy has focused on "crew survival" as well as "rapid battle damage repair". The experiences of the 1973 War proved that the Israeli focus on crew survivability and safety was justified. Thereafter, 11 upgrades have followed, leading to the current Merkava Mark IV which has a combat weight of 65 tonnes a power-to-
R&D in defence has, in recent years, undergone a sea change in outlook and orientation... The British, on whose model of defense R&D the DRDO is based on, have almost completely revamped their defence R&D outlook. Israel, always innovative and dynamic in this sphere, has established intimate bonding between the government R&D, user and private industry from the drawing board to production and product improvement. The startling decisions here are that Israel funds start ups on research up to 60 per cent. In addition, the user starts fielding the equipment as soon as workable models are produced and product improvement takes place in the field, involving both developer and user.
weight ratio of 23 hp/tonne. Merkava has an underside belly armour pack; ammunition stored in individual fire proof canisters below the turret line; a low thermal signature, upgraded fire control system; and a digital battlefield management system capable of handling/encrypting data including UAV data in real time. The battle performance of the 400 Merkava tanks in the 2006 Lebanon War has been satisfactory. Research has proved that before the Merkava came, crew losses during the Yom Kippur War of 1973 were two crew members per penetrated tank. This figure reduced to one crew member per penetrated tank. Several Merkava derivatives are in use such as the Merkava LIC (Low Intensity Conflict) and Merkava Tankbulance for casualty evacuation.
Finally, there is a need for accountability on all matters where national interest is at stake; in this case, the sovereignty of India is at stake. A "Constitutionally appointed Ombudsman" who has oversight and budgetary control is therefore mandated to ensure quality and timely output. Civil firms including foreign firms working for major hi-tech/classified military programs must also come under the Ombudsman's purview. (A Retired Major General, the author, besides his acquaintance with the Arjun tank, has commanded a T-72M Regiment and Brigade. He was on staff at Army HQ when the T-90 was inducted into the Indian Army and dealt with issues of its induction, training, exploitation and upgrades.)
BATTLE HARDENED: The Merkava has witnessed numerous conflicts since the early 1980s
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httpmanlyexcellence.com
The issue of an institutional role between the DRDO, user and private industry is thus critical to the development process. This suggestion has HR "cross-posting" implications between the players and needs serious consideration. By implication too, "standalone development of military hardware, either government or civil is a no-no situation.
‘Super Tank’ Merkava
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GEOPOLITICS
PERISCOPE
“ANY MISSION, ANY TIME,
ANYWHERE”
O
n May 12, 2012, INS Viraat, the flagship of the Indian Navy and the lone aircraft carrier at the moment, completed 25 years of service. For 43-year-old Viraat, it has been a remarkable life. It was completed and commissioned in 1959 as the Royal British Navy's HMS Hermes, and transferred to India in 1987. Having undergone five mid-service refits in India, it is expected to be in service until 2020. In other words, Viraat is scheduled to compete 60 years of service — over twice its initially estimated sailing life of 25 years. As of now, Viraat has done over 40,000 hours of steaming and traversed over 5,00,000 nautical miles across the proverbial seven seas for the Indian Navy. Besides, it h a s
undertaken over 20,000 hours of flying from its deck. During her career of 26 years as Hermes, she served as the flagship of the British Navy's task force during the Falkland Islands campaign in 1982. De-commissioned from active duty in 1985, she was bought by Indian Navy in April 1986 and given an extensive refit at Devonport Dockyard in Plymouth, England, to allow for continued operability. At the time of parting England for India, the crew of Hermes had sent a message which read: “Bringing forward HMS Hermes for hand over to the Indian Navy and commissioning as INS Viraat… It is with a mixture of sadness, pride and confidence that we today hand over this magnificent ship to the Indian Navy; sadness in that we with our happy memories witness her passing from the Royal Navy, pride in the capabilities noting that she will be in good hands and confident that she will prove equal and worthy of all the aspirations the Indian Navy have for her as Viraat. The Captain, officers and ships company of HMS Hermes congratulate the Captain, officers and ships company on the majesty of INS Viraat and may good fortune attend all who sail in her quest to control the sea and be all powerful.” The
words proved prophetic as INS Viraat has been maintained and run successfully by the professional men of the Indian Navy for a full 25 years, making Hermes-Viraat one of the longest-serving aircraft carriers in the history of naval operations anywhere in the world. Over the years the ship has truly stood up to its slogan “Any Mission, Any Time, Anywhere” Currently commanded by Captain Ajendra Bahadur Singh, the 19th Commanding Officer of the ship, INS Viraat was the flag ship of the Western Fleet during Operation Parakram. With its full strength of Sea Harriers, Viraat was central to the Western Fleet deployment for over six months. She was at sea with Captain (now Vice Admiral) DK Joshi as the Commanding Officer and Rear Admiral (later Vice Admiral) JS Bedi as the Fleet Commander. It is interesting to note that INS Viraat has seen 18 Commanding Officers, of whom three went on to become Chief of Naval Staff: Admiral Madhvendra Singh, Admiral Arun Prakash and Admiral Nirmal Verma. Viraat is fitted with a 12-degree ski jump to operate the Sea Harriers, a reinforced flight deck, and 1.2 inches (3 cm) of armour over the magazines and machinery spaces. The magazine capacity includes at least 80 lightweight torpedoes. The vessel retains a commando transport capability for up to 750 troops and carries four LCVP landing craft in the aft section. In a wartime scenario, the INS Viraat can embark up to 30 combat aircraft. INS Viraat is suited for two missions: Supporting amphibious operations and conducting anti-submarine warfare ASW operations. With a maximum speed of 28 knots and maximum range of 6500 miles at 14 knots, Viraat has a length of 226.5 metres, beam of 48.78 metres and draught of 8.8 metres.
PRIDE OF THE FLEET: INS Viraat has completed 25 years of glorious service DPR
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geopolitics
INTERNAL SECURITY
FIGHTING TERROR PIB
Is the proposed NCTC the only way for a secure India?
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B R I E F S
CRPF FOR PARLIAMENT SECURITY
MAOISTS LEAN ON THE BODOS
STATES OPPOSE BSF BILL CHANGES
Border Security Force (Amendment) ¤BillThe that seeks deployment
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THEIR ARMS WING IN ASSAM, THERE ARE ATTEMPTS TO ROPE IN THE BODOS WITH SOME FORMER MILITANTS BEING TEMPTED TO GET BACK TO BUSINESS. ACTUALLY, THE MAOISTS ARE ATTEMPTING TO LURE SOME OF THE BODO FRONT ORGANISATIONS BACK INTO BUSINESS AND EYEING THE STOCKPILE OF ARMS THAT CONTINUES TO BE USED BY FORMER BODO LEADERS. THE BODO LIBERATION TIGER FORCE, WHICH WAS DISBANDED AFTER SIGNING THE BODO ACCORD IN 2003, HAS SINCE BECOME A PRIVATE POLICE FORCE FOR BODO LEADERS.
(PDG), which will comprise over 1500 personnel of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF), is likely to take charge in the last week of July. The PDG will be trained in combating nuclear and bio-chemical attacks, rescue operations and behavioural management. The selection process for the Group has commenced and it will be finalised in a few weeks. “The main charter for the PDG would include providing armed protection to Parliament House. This would be the only force vested with the responsibility,” said a Home Ministry official. The PDG personnel will be armed with hi-tech arms, which will include Glock pistols (sophisticated automatic pistols), MP5 assault rifles and Insas telescopic sniper rifles and special equipment, including handheld thermal imagers.
HC TIWARI
of the border-guarding force in the hinterland so that it can exercise its powers of arrest, search and seizure is being opposed by several states. Andhra Pradesh and Maharashtra have submitted their written objections to the proposal to amend the BSF Act, 1968. In response to a Parliament question on the BSF (Amendment) Bill, the Home Ministry in its written response in the Lok Sabha said, “So far, the state governments of Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Goa, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Manipur, Meghalaya, Odisha, Rajasthan, Sikkim, Uttarakhand, West Bengal and NCT of Delhi have concurred with the proposal.” It said, “However, the Chief Ministers of Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Maharashtra have raised certain objections to this proposal”. As per the present legal position, BSF can be deployed only along or adjoining the borders of India. However in recent times, BSF has been deployed in the hinterland, especially in Chhattisgarh and Odisha, the said deployments have been questioned.
IT’S THE CHICKEN NECK THAT THE MAOISTS ARE ¤AFTER. AFTER LAUNCHING
The CRPF will take over the security of Parliament, now ¤Delhi protected by the central force and other agencies under Police’s command. A special Parliament Duty Group
VECTRA LICENCE SUSPENDED
WB OUT, GUJARAT IN FOR NSG
¤
With land being at a premium to set up a regional centre of the National Security Guard (NSG) in West Bengal, there is now a move to shift the hub to Gujarat. This centre will have over 5,000 commandos of the counterterror force for operational and logistics purposes. Sources say that the search for land in West Bengal is on but work on the Gujarat hub will move forward since the government has accepted the state government’s request for a regional centre in the state which will cover the entire western region of the country. Interestingly, Kolkata already has an NSG hub which was set up post-26/11. Similar hubs were set up in Mumbai, Chennai and Hyderabad as well in the past two years. Besides the four ‘hubs’, the government had decided to set up two regional centres: one each in West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh.
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Aviation regulator Directorate General ¤suspended of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has the licence of Global Vectra
VECTRAGROUP.COM
IS
INTERNAL SECURITY
Helicorp Ltd. The suspension followed the Home Ministry withdrawing the company’s security clearance — a mandatory requirement for operating an aviation company. Global Vectra has been in Ravi Rishi the news following allegations of irregularities in the supply of Tatra trucks to the Army through promoter Ravi Rishi’s company. With 23 helicopters in its fleet, Global Vectra was India’s largest private chopper operator — second only to state-run Pawan Hans that has about 50 choppers.
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government has decided to get ¤theThe National
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NO NEED FOR AFSPA: CRPF
¤
The CRPF does not want the AFSPA cover. The top officers of the CRPF have sought to distance themselves from a senior officer’s demand that the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) cover be extended to the paramilitary force to tackle the Maoist scourge. CRPF Director-General K Vijay Kumar said: “We certainly don’t want AFSPA. As long as we are covered by Section 197 CrPC, which gives our officers immunity against prosecution, we are fine.” While the controversial Act and its implementation are being debated, a CRPF commander in Jharkhand made the plea to extend it to the paramilitary fighting Maoists during a top-level conference on operational matters of the force. The IG, who commands 16 battalions (16,000 personnel) of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) in Jharkhand, had suggested that if the entire state can not be brought under the umbrella of the Act, some selected areas could be chosen.
UNIFORM HOSTAGE POLICY SOON
Home Minister P Chidambaram said that the ¤framing government would start consultations on a “uniform hostage policy consultations”
with states. “We must take a practical view of having mediation and negotiations... Mediation is a part of every government.” The Home Minister cited the example of Israel, “Even Israel does it, as it released 1,000 prisoners to get one Israeli soldier,” Chidambaram said while replying to a short notice question in the Rajya Sabha. But he warned that “one should know where and how to draw the line”. On the role of the states he said: “My view has been, my view is, and my view will be that dealing with militancy, insurgency and extremism is a shared responsibility.”
AK-47— THE PERENNIAL FAVOURITE AK-47s continue to be the preferred assault weapon for the ¤country’s paramilitary forces. Over
30,000 pieces were imported for CRPF, BSF and NSG over the last three years. While the Central Reserve Police Force — extensively used for anti-Naxal operations — procured 18,000 AK-47s, the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) — guarding Indian airports — got 7,921 pieces and the Sashastra Seema Bal — securing borders along Nepal and Bhutan — got 2,719 units. The China-India border guarding force Indo-Tibetan Border Police procured 620 pieces of these ‘Avtomat Kalashnikova’ (AK) rifles. The AK-47s were procured from Bulgaria.
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CPL. D.A. HAYNES
Investigation Agency (NIA) to probe all major incidents perpetrated by the Naxals to ensure that justice is “swift” and the perpetrators can be brought to book in “time”. On the express request of the Odisha government, the Home Ministry has decided the killing of BSF commandant, second in command, and two other personnel in a landmine blast in Malkangiri district on February 10 by the Maoists to be probed by the NIA. Home Minister P Chidambaram has said that Naxal violence can be treated on par with terror attacks and the investigation of such cases may be given to the NIA. As many as 52 security personnel have been killed in the first three months of this year till March 31 and the idea of a swift probe into Naxal terror acts will be a morale boaster to the forces, it was felt.
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QUOTE/ UNQUOTE TVARAJ.FILES.WORDPRESS.COM
NOW, NIA TO PROBE MAOIST ATTACKS, TOO
B R I E F S IS
Alex Paul Menon
I met Alex (Sukma Collector Alex Paul Menon) at his residence soon after his release. He described his ordeal in great detail. He’s a brave man and that’s why he was able to withstand it. He was treated very badly by his captors. As a friend, he told me many things on the condition that I will not disclose them. —————— Dr J. Joel, principal, Nazareth Margoschis College in Thoothukudi, had gone to Chhattisgarh at the invitation of the government to play the role of an interlocutor for securing the release of Menon. Though he did not take part in the direct negotiations between the government and the Maoists, Dr Joel was very much present on the sidelines assisting the talks and thus knew all the developments.
June 2012
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INTERNALSECURITY When the country is debating over the constitutional validity of the proposed National Counter Terrorism Centre, AJIT KUMAR SINGH questions the very rationale for its creation www.geopolitics.in
DO WE NEED A NCTC?
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ESPITE INDIA’S poor record of successful institution-building over the past decades, India’s political leadership seems to be oblivious of our earlier Counter-Terrorism (CT) success in states like Punjab, Andhra Pradesh and Tripura. In its pursuit of ‘radical restructuring’ in the aftermath of unprecedented November 26, 2008, Mumbai terror attacks (also known as 26/11) that claimed 166 lives, the government has been clamouring for mega institutions such as the National Intelligence Grid (NATGRID), the Multi Agency Centre (MAC), the
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Crimes and Criminal Tracking Network and System (CCTNS), the National Investigative Agency (NIA), Universal Identity Card (UID) project, apart from the National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC), which is in question now. Regardless of the fact that very few such organisations set up earlier, including those after the 26/11, have attained their respective ‘take-off ’ stages because of their lacking even the very basic requirement to run successfully — the manpower — the fascination for NCTC does not make much sense. Speaking at the Centenary Endowment Lecture of the Intelligence Bureau June 2012
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PART OF THE GOVERNMENT’S OFFICE MEMORANDUM ON THE NCTC This order may be called the National Counter Terrorism Centre (Organisation, Functions, Powers and Duties) Order, 2012. It shall come into force with effect from March I, 2012. The provisions of this Order shall be in addition to and not in derogation of any other law, order or instruction for the time being in force. There shall be a National Counter Terrorism Centre (NCTC) located in the Intelligence Bureau (IB). The Head of the NCTC shall be called Director, NCTC, and shall be an officer in the rank of Additional Director, IB. NCTC shall have a core staff drawn from the personnel of the IB or directly recruited to the IB and posted in the NCTC. NCTC shall also have officers on deputation/secondment form other agencies such as R&AW, JIC, NTRO, DIA, DGMI, DAI, DNI, CEIB, CBDT, CBEC, NCB etc. NCTC shall have three divisions each headed by an officer in the rank of Joint Director, IB, or equivalent rank. The three divisions will be responsible for (i) Collection and dissemination of intelligence; (ii) Analysis and (iii) Operation.
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GRAND AGENDA: (from left to right) Defence Minister AK Antony, Minister of State for Home Affairs Mullappally Ramachandran, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Union Home Minister P Chidambaram at the Conference of Chief Ministers on Internal Security in New Delhi on May 05, 2012
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HEMANT RAWAT
on December 23, 2009, Union Home Minister P Chidambaram, showing utmost urgency about the creation of the organisation, had said, “India must decide now to go forward and India must succeed in setting up the NCTC by the end of 2010. India cannot afford to wait for 36 months.” He was referring to the time taken by the US to create its own NCTC, the same organisation which Chidambaram wants to imitate. Though the Minister failed to ‘keep his words’ on the formation of the NCTC by the ‘end of 2010’, his ministry, the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), on February 3, 2012, issued an executive order (vide its office memorandum III 11011/67/05-IS.IV ) establishing the NCTC with effect from March 1, 2012. Sadly, for the MHA, as of May 10, 2012,
The duties and functions of NCTC shall be: (i) To draw up plans and coordinate actions for counter terrorism; (ii) To integrate intelligence pertaining to terrorism; analyse the same; pursue or mandate other agencies to pursue the different leads; and to coordinate with the existing agencies for an effective response; (iii) To maintain a comprehensive data base of terrorists and their associates, friends, families and supporters; of terrorist modules and gangs; and of all information pertaining to terrorists; (iv) To prescribe counter terrorism priorities for each stakeholder; (v) To ensure that all agencies have access to and receive source intelligence support that is necessary to execute counter terrorism plans and accomplish their assigned tasks; (vi) To coordinate with existing investigation and intelligence agencies to ensure that all terrorist cases are solved and the perpetrators are brought to justice.
the NCTC, a brainchild of Chidambaram, conceived after the 26/11, still remains an uncertainty with the executive order ‘more or less kept in abeyance’. We don’t even know whether NCTC will come in force or not with not
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less than 18 states, out of 28, opposing the NCTC for one reason or the other, the most important being the overriding power to the Intelligence Bureau(IB) that could lord over the state police forces and thus destabilise the federal balance June 2012
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WE STILL DO NOT KNOW WHETHER WE REALLY NEED A BODY LIKE NCTC TO COUNTER TERROR THREATS er name is absolutely necessary. While we will continue to have intelligence agencies, and the premier agency is the IB [Intelligence Bureau], and we will continue to have investigation agencies, the agencies are the State CIDs [crime investigation departments] and Crime Branches and at the Centre, the CBI [Central Bureau of Investigation] and now the NIA, we need and I underline this, we need a counter terrorism agency which is in my view more than a mere police agency... The adversary can fail ninety nine out of hundred times but the State, the Governments, cannot afford to fail even once out of hundred times. Every case of failure-there will be some terrorist attack somewhere. That is why it is important that we get over these weak-
HC TIWARI
of power in the country, the system under which the subject of law and order falls under the domains of the states. While a whole lot of debate is going on over the constitutional validity of the NCTC, how it will impact our federalism, whether it should be located within the IB or not, and so on, the more important question which still remains to be answered is whether we really need a body like NCTC at all to counter-terror threats. Indeed, the Home Minister in his concluding remarks at the day-long meeting of Chief Ministers on the NCTC held in New Delhi on May 5, 2012, stated, We have intelligence agencies, we have investigative agencies. Between intelligence agencies and investigative agencies under the traditional system of administration of law and order, we have the police but my experience in this job for the last three and a half years tells me that what we need is not simply a police organisation; what we need is a counter terrorism organisation. So we need to move beyond looking upon counter terrorism as a police operation and enlarge our scope to make it a truly counter terrorism organisation that will mobilise all elements of national power. That is why we believe that an NCTC or a similar organisation or organisation by any oth-
UNLIKELY ALLIANCE: Tamil Nadu Chief Minister J Jayalalithaa and Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi have opposed the creation of the NCTC
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nesses, the weaknesses arising out of lack of capacity, the weaknesses arising out of lack of timely decision. We think the NCTC or any other organization or any similar organization with whatever powers will fill this gap. Addressing the same meeting Prime Minister Manmohan Singh said: Since 26/11, we have diligently strengthened our counter terrorism capabilities both in the States and at the Centre. I believe that today the State and Central Police and intelligence agencies are working in harmony and in close coordination. These efforts have resulted in several noteworthy successes. The State Police forces have achieved some excellent results in the recent past. On the whole there is broad agreement on the strategy and measures that we must adopt to counter terrorism in all its multifarious dimensions in India, including cross-border terrorism, Left Wing Extremism, terrorism in Jammu and Kashmir, insurgency in the North-East and religion based terrorism. However, much remains to be done. Our government remains committed to working with the State governments and providing them all possible help in combating terrorism. We have been providing financial assistance to the States and helping them train State police and intelligence agencies. We are also implementing schemes on border management and on coastal security, and the scheme for modernization of state police forces. Our government will continue and strengthen these efforts. The antecedents of the NCTC lie in the recommendations by a Group of Ministers and by the Administrative Reforms Commission, commencing from the lessons learnt in Kargil. It is our belief that the NCTC, in its design and its operational aspects, will supplement the counter-terrorism capabilities of the States and not supplant them. The NCTC mechanism will give each state agency an ability to see the bigger picture of terrorist threats and thus would enhance their counter terrorism capability and access to resources to tackle them. It may be noted here along with his clamouring for the mega institution called NCTC, the Union Home Minister’s own understanding of the priorities of the CT measures, during the aforesaid Endowment Lecture on December 23, 2009, were qualified in the sense that he had also said: June 2012
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STRETCHED TO THE BRINK: Premier investigative agencies like the NIA and the CBI lack manpower
...police stations in the country are, today, virtually unconnected islands... There is no record of crimes or criminals that can be accessed by a Station House Officer, except manual records relating to that police station...we must have more police stations and, at the police station level, we must have more constables, some of whom are exclusive for gathering intelligence... the police must also be the first responder in case of a militant or terrorist attack... QRT [Quick Reaction Team] and commando units should have modern weapons and equipment... Unfortunately, however, there has been no improvement on the situation of the basic policing. “You can’t have first-rate counter-terrorism in a thirdgrade policing”, commented noted counter-terrorism expert Ajai Sahni, Executive Director of the Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management. There cannot be a magical band, which will cure all the ills of our security apparatus. Viewed thus, organisations like these are mere symbolic, adding no more strength to our CT measures. It is not that the government has not acknowledged the importance of police force in its fight against terrorism. All told, CT is a “small commanders’ war”. Notably, Prime Minister Manmohan www.geopolitics.in
Singh in September 2006 had observed, “Unless the ‘beat constable’ is brought into the vortex of our counter-terrorist strategy, our capacity to pre-empt future attacks would be severely limited.” Nevertheless, very little has been done to address this acute shortage of manpower in the police force. We have an ill-trained and ill-quipped police force. The force with vacancies in all ranks up to 501,069 or about 25 per cent of the sanctioned strength (which itself needs a re-look) in the country has more importantly leadership crisis too. Speaking in Parliament on May 2, 2012, Minister of State for Personnel V Narayanasamy informed that the states had a shortage of 1,327 Indian Police Ser-
VERY LITTLE HAS BEEN DONE TO ADDRESS ACUTE SHORTAGE OF MANPOWER IN THE POLICE FORCE
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vice (IPS) officers, the officers who commanded the force. Union Home Secretary RK Singh had informed a parliamentary standing committee in April that the actual strength of IPS in the country was 3,393 against the sanctioned strength of 4,720. What it means is that the country does not have enough officers to provide the leadership in policing. Interestingly, the February 3, 2012 executive order says that the NCTC will draw its core group from the IB, which itself is understaffed. IB’s total strength of field agents — the officers and personnel actually involved in intelligence gathering — is well below 5,000. The NIA and the CBI, the two premier investigative agencies, also lack the manpower. Considering all this, we need to reinforce the existing agencies/institutions, which are flailing and opt for, as noted by Dr Sahni, deployment and raising of small, but better trained and equipped, Special forces contingents such ass National Security Guards (NSG) Commandos, Force 1, QRTs, etc. Unless we strengthen the existing institutions, any new leviathan will be of not much help in undertaking CT measures. (The author is Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management, New Delhi) June 2012
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THE CHALLENGE OF PEACEFUL SETTLEMENT With fratricidal rivalries among Naga militants on the rise, peace in Nagaland has become more elusive, writes VERONICA KHANGCHIAN
O
N MAY 11, 2012, news reports suggested that the Government of India (GoI), in a move to bring about a “final settlement” to the protracted Naga political issue, was ready to engage all three Naga underground groups — National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM), NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K) and NSCNKhole-Kitovi — for peace talks. Joint Secretary (North-East) Ministry of Home Affairs, Shambu Singh, confirmed this by saying, “Eventually all three factions of the NSCN would be invited for peace talks before any final settlement is reached.” Opposition to the signing of the Shillong Accord on November 11, 1975, between the Government of India (GoI) and some representatives of the Naga National Council (NNC) to accept, without condition, the Constitution of India, had led to the formation of National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) with Isak Chishi Swu as the Chairman, SS Khaplang as the ‘Vice Chairman’ and Thuingaleng Muivah as the General Secretary. No one could have imagined, then, that this would be the beginning of a serious fratricidal confrontation, which remains unabated till date. Factionalism began after April 30,1988, when a bloody clash between supporters of Muivah and Isak Chishi Swu, on one side, and Khaplang, on the other, resulted in the split of NSCN into two groups: NSCN-Isak-Muivah (NSCN-IM)
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and NSCN-Khaplang (NSCN-K). Since then, both the groups have been constantly engaged in a violent contest to establish their respective hegemony. Meanwhile, NSCN-K has split with the violent formation of NSCN-Khole-Kitovi faction after the expulsion of its chairman SS Khaplang from the NSCN-K on June 7, 2011, for his alleged dictatorial leadership. NSCN-Khole-Kitovi is under the leadership of Khole Konyak and Kitovi Zhimomi. The formation of the new Manipur-based Naga outfit Zeliangrong United Front (ZUF) on February 25, 2011, has also added another dimension in intensifying factionalism. It may be noted that the GoI would be more than happy to hold dialogues with the NSCN-Khole-Kitovi faction, which, unlike the other two, is prepared to find out a settlement within the present boundary of Nagaland by not insisting to include Naga-dominated areas in Manipur and elsewhere. As regards the NSCN-IM, New Delhi has been in talks with it since 1997, although no significant progress on its demands have been made. And the central government is likely to invite the NSCN-K also at a later stage for a “complete exercise” before any kind of settlement is inked. The NSCN-Khole-Kitovi faction was formed after the expulsion of the NSCNK’s chairman SS Khaplang by the dissenting group for Khaplang’s alleged ‘dictatorial leadership’. While Khaplang and the cadres, who chose to remain loyal to him,
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g INTERNALSECURITY continued to identify themselves as NSCN-K, the other faction, which expelled Khaplang, came to be known as NSCN-Khole-Kitovi, under the leadership of Khole Konyak and Kitovi Zhimomi. The two factions were initially involved in war of words with the NSCN-K declaring that Khole and Kitovi Zhimomi (leaders of the new faction) had become “prisoners of the NSCN-IM”. Earlier, the Khole-Kitovi faction had described SS Khaplang as a Burmese national and asked him not to interfere in ‘Naga affairs’. Frequent and violent clashes, however, began in December 2011. New Manipur-based Naga outfit, the ZUF, was formed on February 25, 2011, with the proclaimed objective of protecting the interests of the Zeliangrong tribe. On its first raising day on February 25, 2012, the group denied that it was a breakaway faction of the NSCN-IM, though it had earlier been reported that ZUF was created when some 10 NSCNIM cadres, who deserted the group along with arms and ammunition, joined NSCN-K cadres. On November 11, 2011, the NSCN-IM claimed that ZUF was formed to “challenge the (Naga) nation”. The NSCN-IM declared, “It is the duty of the Naga Army to check anti-national elements caused by the ZUF.” On the other hand, ZUF warned NSCN-IM, declaring that the latter group would be responsible for any ‘unfortunate incident’ that occurred in future in the ‘Zeliangrong region’ (the Zeliangrong Naga-inhabited
areas of Assam, Manipur and Nagaland). The ZUF is against NSCN-IM operations in the areas it claims as its own. Factional fights have frequently been witnessed both within and beyond Nagaland, in Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam and also outside India’s frontier in Myanmar, where NSCN-K has its base. Twenty incidents of fratricidal clashes among Naga factions have already been reported in 2012, 15 of which in Nagaland (between NSCN-K and KholeKitovi), two in Arunachal Pradesh (between NSCN-K and NSCN-IM), two in Manipur (one between NSCN-K and NSCN-Khole-Kitovi and the other between NSCN-IM and ZUF) and one incident in Assam (NSCN-K and NSCNIM). These incidents have resulted in 22 fatalities (till May 11, 2012) and 15 injuries. The largest proportion of fratricidal violence has been registered between the NSCN-K and the NSCNKhole-Kitovi in Nagaland. Earlier, a sharp spike in Naga factional violence had been registered in 2011, with a total of 49 killed and 13 injured. Factionalism was at its peak in the years 2008, 2007 and 2006 with 119 killings (79 incidents), 90 killings (62 incidents), 74 killings (60 incidents), respectively. A sharp
drop in such killings in 2009 and 2010 resulted from the ‘Covenant of Reconciliation’ (CoR) signed by the top leaders of NSCN-K, NSCN-IM and the Federal Government of Nagaland/Naga National Council (FGN/NNC) on June 13, 2009, after a Naga Reconciliation meet was held in Chiang Mai in Thailand from June 1 to June 8, 2009. The CoR, however, quickly lost its effectiveness, as tribal and leadership tensions grew. In the latest of such incidents, two cadres of NSCN-Khole-Kitovi, identified as ‘Lieutenant’ Engo Konyak and ‘2nd Lieutenant’ Shannau Konyak, were killed by NSCN-K cadres at the junction of Phushumi village near VK town in Zunheboto District on April 21, 2012. In fact, the last five months have witnessed an increasing number of such clashes. On the morning of March 30,
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OBSTACLE TO PEACE: Rising Naga factionalism has disturbed an otherwise fast-improving security scenario in Nagaland
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g INTERNALSECURITY 2012, two militants, one from NSCN-K, identified as Tsilise, and another from NSCN-Khole-Kitovi, identified as Johnson, were killed when the two groups clashed at Sanphure village in Kiphire District of Nagaland. An NSCN-K cadre also sustained injuries in the clash, which lasted three to four hours. Official sources indicate that the clash took place when the NSCN-K attacked the Sanphure ‘designated camp’ at Kiphire, which they claimed was illegally occupied by NSCN-Khole-Kitovi. NSCN-K later asserted that the camp was among the four allotted to them. On March 28, 2012, NSCN-KholeKitovi and NSCN-K cadres had clashed at a place between Natha Old and Natha New, on the outskirts of Zunheboto District, Nagaland, though no casualty was reported. NSCN-K claimed that firing had occurred due to “provocation” by NSCNKhole-Kitovi, who had threatened to chase the NSCN-K out from Zunheboto. On March 26, 2012, an NSCN-K tatar (core member) was abducted and subsequently killed by militants at Pfuchama village in Kohima District, Nagaland. The deceased had recently been released
away from Chui village junction in Mon District, Nagaland. According to sources, the deceased were Years Killed Injured ‘arrested’ some days earlier 2003 14 0 by NSCN-K cadres, who 2004 27 12 killed them on March 14. On February 5, 2012, two 2005 30 6 NSCN-Khole-Kitovi cadres, 2006 74 34 identified as one ‘sergeant 2007 90 36 major’ Thangboi and ‘cor2008 119 14 poral’ Jackson Kuki, were 2009 21 12 killed, and another was 2010 8 2 injured, after NSCN-K 2011 49 13 cadres attacked a ‘mobile 2012* 22 15 camp’ of NSCN-KholeTotal 454 144 Kitovi on the outskirts of Source: SATP, *Data till May 11, 2012 Athibung area in Peren Disfrom prison, after he was arrested on trict, Nagaland. charges relating to illegal possession of On January 8, 2012, NSCN-IM claimed arms. The father of the deceased, AKD that two militants belonging to NSCN-K Angami, the former NSCN-K ‘chairman’ were killed and four were injured, when for the Angami region, had been killed in the latter attacked the NSCN-IM camp in his own village on February 9, 2006. Chasha village in Tirap District, Earlier, on March 17, 2012, a kapur Arunachal Pradesh. (area administrator) of the NSCN-KholeIn Tirap-Changlang (Arunachal Kitovi, identified as Kito Sumi, was shot Pradesh), violence has been going on for dead by suspected NSCN-K cadres at nearly a decade, as the NSCN-IM and Naga Hospital in Kohima. A civilian was NSCN-K engage in a contest to secure also injured in the incident. dominance over the two strategically The worst of recent incidents occurred located districts in Eastern Arunachal on March 15, 2012, when three dead bodPradesh. These districts serve as a crucial ies, suspected to be of NSCN-Khole-Kitovi transit route for militants from India’s cadres, were found a few hundred metres north-east, who take shelter in largely un-administered areas of Myanmar. The Nungba sub-division of Tamenglong district, Manipur, is afflicted by the NSCNIM, ZUF confrontation. The last such incident in Myanmar took place on February 28, 2011, when severe fighting broke out between NSCN-K and NSCNIM cadres somewhere inside Myanmar. At least two NSCN-K cadres were reportedly injured in the fighting. Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphiu Rio, on February 29, 2012, decried the rising factionalism among Nagas, observing, “Though the world and outsiders recognise Naga people, yet Naga people themselves do not recognise each other and though Nagas have ceasefire with others, they do not have ceasefire among themselves.” Questioning the rationale of the fratricidal war, Nagaland Home Minister Imkong L Imchen, stated, on April 2, 2012, “Killing of Nagas by the Nagas is not a demonstration or reflection of Naga nationalism and has got nothing to do with Naga political issue but it IN THE SHADOW OF THE GUN: Large sections of Naga society have been affected by amounts to criminal offence only (sic).” the violence in the region
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Casualties among Naga outfits in internecine clashes within and beyond Nagaland: 2003-2012
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INTERNECINE CONFLICT: The fratricidal confrontation between different Naga outfits remains unabated Continued from Page 64 `
Rising Naga factionalism has disturbed an otherwise fast-improving security scenario in Nagaland. From its recent peak of 145 fatalities, including 101 militants, 42 civilians and two security force (SF) personnel, in 2008, fatalities within the state had come down to just three (all militants) in 2010. Fratricidal battles have, moreover, marginalised all reconciliation efforts initiated by the Forum for Naga Reconciliation (FNR). The FNR, in its “Naga Reconciliation Meeting” on February 29, 2012, adopted a resolution, which “calls upon all armed confrontations to cease with immediate effect, from this day February 29, 2012, and to decisively take steps towards Naga reconciliation”. The call failed to unite the Nagas, and to end the violence. The various ceasefire agreements with the principal insurgent groups have long prevented state agencies from taking effective action, despite endemic violations of ‘ground rules’ by the insurgents and various patterns of lawlessness, including enveloping extortion — projected as ‘taxation’ by various groups in their areas of dominance — as well as acts of violence and intimidation, including those relating to factional turf www.geopolitics.in
wars. The cease-fire agreements have held since the first of these was signed between the Centre and the NSCN-IM in 1997, and since then timorous state agencies have been unwilling to challenge local dominance of various groups in order to impose the law of the land. The GoI has also signed a ceasefire agreement with the newly-formed Khole-Kitovi faction (April 27, 2012) while ceasefire with the NSCN-K has been extended (May 3, 2012) for a year after it entered into a ceasefire agreement with the GoI on April 28, 2001. The NSCN-K also reportedly signed a ceasefire with the Myanmar government on April 9, 2012. The NSCN-K has so far not engaged in talks for sovereignty of the Nagas comprising of the Naga dominated areas within India, and contiguous areas in Myanmar. But the NSCN-IM is clear on its demand for integration of all Naga inhabited areas of Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh and Assam in India and Nagainhabited areas in neighboring Myanmar under one administration. Talks with the NSCN-IM apparently got stuck on the contentious issue of incorporation of the Naga-inhabited areas in other states. Reiterating its stand on sovereignty,
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NSCN-K on April 24, 2012 said, NSCNKhole-Kitovi’s “espousal” of Eastern Nagaland (Myanmar) and Western Nagaland (India) was another ideology for further partitioning Naga areas rather than “dismantling” the arbitrarily imposed “artificial boundaries” by Myanmar and India. It stated that NSCNK would pursue the cherished goal of the Nagas without any “biasness, preferences or territorial limitations”. NSCN-K also stated on April 22, 2012, that there could be no “reconciliation” at the expense of sovereignty stating that it (sovereignty) was not a “mere traditional concept”. On April 17, 2012, NSCN-Khole-Kitovi had stated, “The political fate of Nagas of Nagaland should be left to the people of Nagaland,” adding that the “political destiny of Nagas of Myanmar should be left to his Excellency the President SS Khaplang, NSCN (K)”. Given such basic differences and fratricidal rivalry, the Naga people, it seems, will have to wait much longer before they can experience a real peace with a final settlement. (The author is a Delhi-based research scholar) June 2012
geopolitics
DIPLOMACY
PARTNERING FOR SECURITY ‘MAOISTS ARE COMMITTED TO DEMOCRATIC RULE IN NEPAL’
DYING REGIMES/FLICKR
EKANTIPUR.COM
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India and Britain are finetuning their strategic links
CAN THEY REGAIN DEMOCRACY IN THE MALDIVES?
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Belying all hopes, the May 27 deadline of a new constitution for Nepal has been extended by three more months. So far, most of the hurdles to reach the deadline have been over the fates of the erstwhile Maoist combatants, writes SUDHANSHU BHANDARI
NIRMAL DULAL/WIKIPEDIA
NATION IN FLUX: Nepal has witnessed a turbulent political environment even after the end of the Maoist insurgency
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rom November 2006, when the decade-long Maoist 'Insurgency' or 'People's War' (depending upon which side of the ideological battle you are on) formally ended with the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement between the Seven-Party-Alliance and the Unified Communist Party of Nepal (UCPN-M), till November 2011, Nepal witnessed five years of continuous political bickering. It has been a fractious political process involving an incremental progress towards a constitution building, which shall transform Nepal into a modern, secular, multi-ethnic, multilingual, democratic, federal republic. On October 1, 2011, the UCPN-M chairman Pushpa Kamal Dahal aka Prachanda said that the formation of the Government led by party vice chairman Baburam Bhattarai was a compulsion for him. Speaking at a programme organised by a pro-Maoist group of intellectuals in the
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capital, Prachanda revealed that he recommended Bhattarai unwillingly as he did not have other options before him. The Seven-Point agreement signed between the parties on November 1, 2011, was an important step forward in the past four years. The clause broadly dealt with the following thorny issues: 1. Integration of the UCPN-M combatants belonging to the People's Liberation Army (PLA) into the National Army. 2. Retirement and rehabilitation of those combatants who do not seek integration. 3. Formation of a Truth and Reconciliation Commission and a Commission to investigate forced disappearances. 4. Granting of compensation without bias to all those who were killed, maimed, injured and who disappeared or whose properties were seized during the decade-long conflict. 5. Implementation of past agreements as enshrined in the Comprehensive Peace Accord and laws framed under the Interim Constitution. 6. Accelerating the pace of constitution writing. 7. Formation of a national Consensus Government. The first two objectives were put into the greatest mode of urgency and given the maximal political energy by the Big Three (UCPN-M, NC and CPN-UML). The retirement process was the first to be achieved, though a lot of misconduct occured in its implementation. The Army Integration Special Committee (AISC) was created for this purpose to oversee the regrouping process. Since, under the Seven-Point Deal, the maximum number of Maoist cadre that could be integrated with the Nepalese Army (NA) was pegged at 6500, this meant that the remaining out of the 19,602 verified by UNMIN (United Nations Mission in Nepal) in Dec 2007 would have to opt for the 'Golden Handshake' or rehabilitation. This task was easier said than done and entailed various logistic difficulties. The AISC Secretariat presented its initial regrouping reports on December 12 and said 16,964 of the 19,602 combatants verified by UNMIN in 2007 had participated in the process. According to preliminary information handed over to members of the cross-party committee, 9,690 combatants have opted for integration, 7,286
REVOLUTIONARY LEADERS: Baburam Bhattarai (second from left) and Prachanda (third from left) were at the forefront of the Maoist struggle
MAOIST LEADERSHIP HAD CALLED FOR A CONTRIBUTION FROM ALL RETIRING COMBATANTS voluntary retirements and a mere six opted for the rehabilitation package. Thus, what happened to the more than 2600 verified combatants, who didn't present themselves for the regrouping but were UNMIN verified and had been drawing allowances for the past four years? This can be seen in the concern expressed by Nepal's MPs. The members of the Public Accounts Committee (PAC) of Parliament on December 5, 2011, asked Prime Minister Baburam Bhattarai to return the allowance issued in the name of proxy People's Liberation Army (PLA) combatants. At the meeting of the parliamentary committee, the lawmakers expressed their serious concern over an estimated NPR 1 billion (100 crore) that was released from the state coffers in salaries and rations for proxy combatants who are believed to have deserted the cantonments and did not show up for the regrouping process. Another problem was that the hard-
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line faction of the UCPN-M led by senior vice-president, Mohan Baidya, started putting a spoke in the wheel by his obdurate stance. He urged the party combatants to stay away from the army integration process. The problem of rank harmonisation was posing a major problem in initialising the integration process of the ex-Maoist combatants. The November 1, 2011 deal committed for integrating a maximum of 6,500 combatants by forming a new directorate in the NA. Commanders of the Maoist army have demanded that they be provided one Major-General, two Brigadier-General, eight colonel, 16 lieutenant-colonel, 64 major, 120 captain, 96 lieutenant and 120 second lieutenant posts in the new directorate. The speediest progress occurred in matters relating to the retirement of UCPN-M combatants. On January 18, the government had allocated over NPR 1.97 billion as the first installment for the Maoist combatants who had chosen voluntary retirement. The process of discharging more than 7000 UCPN-M combatants, who opted for voluntary retirement scheme (VRS), was set to begin from January 30. The handover of cheques was disrupted for hours at many places because of disputes over their ranks in the PLA hierarchy. Many combatants claimed that they had been promoted twice since the verification by UNMIN in 2007, and declined to receive the checks made out to them as per their June 2012
g DIPLOMACY ranks recorded back then, saying it amounted to humiliation. In Sindhuli District, one Shambhu Prasad Devkota, who was battalion vice-commander in 2007 and has now been promoted to brigade vice-commander, claimed that he should get NPR 600,000, and when officials gave him a check for NPR 500,000 he asked his colleagues to boycott the whole process. There were three other dimensions to the problem of rehabilitation. The first related to the problem of the 8640 combatants who had been disqualified by the UN Mission in Nepal (UNMIN) in December 2007, because they had not appeared for verification interviews. An additional 4,008 were disqualified after interviews and were discharged from the camps over a period of time. Of these a total of 2,973 had been minors. The rest were adults but found to have been recruited into the PLA after the May 25, 2006 ceasefire. The second was the problem relating to intra-party corruption in UCPN-M itself. The party has not been able to explain how its income has increased by 58.4 per cent to NPR 132 million and expenditure by 64.3 per cent over the last four years (2007-2008 to 2010-2011). Was it because of siphoning off the money meant for the PLA combatants? Or was it because if siphoning off the funds granted for developmental project? It is well known that the PLA combatants verified by even UNMIN were overinflated and more than 2500 fake persons got registered to whom the Government of Nepal (GoN) was paying monthly salaries and rations for the past five years. The third was the rise of vociferous protests by the cadres of another paramilitary wing of the UCPN-M — the Youth Communist League (YCL). By December 2011, the Disqualified Excombatants started flexing their muscles. They had formed an organisation— Discharged People's Liberation Army (DPLA). A gathering of combatants disqualified by UNMIN in Butwal on December 1 where they formed a sevenmember committee under Sagar Limbu. "The PLA combatants who fought for peace and constitution cannot stay without a dignified existence and rights. They are ready to challenge the state and even the party if need be for their rights and dignity," said Limbu. The turn of events in February 2012 started turning for the worse. On Februwww.geopolitics.in
ary 7, 2012, Youth Communist League (YCL) and disqualified cadres padlocked the UCPN-M party offices in nine districts in the far-western region, demanding the same assistance package provided to the voluntarily retiring PLA members and those being integrated with the NA. By February 8, 2012, things took a turn for worse. Cadres of the Maoist youth wing, YCL, were disrupting the discharge of the combatants at specific cantonment sites. Seeing the YCL closing down the UCPN-M party offices demanding the same assistance package provided to the voluntarily retired combatants, the UCPN-M decides to provide assistance to them through its own sources. The UCPN-M by now had directed commanders in all the seven People's Liberation Army (PLA) divisions to collect 40 per cent of the retirement pay received by each retiring combatant.
THERE ARE STILL DOUBTS AS TO HOW MANY PROVINCES A FEDERAL NEPAL SHOULD HAVE What is amazing is that as per newspaper reports, the Maoist leadership had called for a mandatory contribution from all retiring combatants so that the amount could be used in rehabilitation programmes for the disqualified PLA fighters and members of the YCL. Speaking in support of this illegitimate levy by the party upon its own members the UCPN-M's Politburo member Haribol Gajurel said the UNMIN disqualified cadres had played an important role in the peace process and it was not right to send them home empty-handed. On February 9 the Army Integration Special Committee asked banks to make payments to only former UCPN-M combatants if they appear in person with their identity cards to ensure that this did not happen. The last two months have seen the process of integration of the ex-UCPN-M combatants being completed in the sense that the estab-
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lishment faction of the UCPN-M despite stiff opposition from the hard-line Baidya faction stuck to their commitments made in the November 1 agreement. By April 7, 2012, seven teams of surveyors from the Army Integration Special Committee (AISC) fanned out to PLA cantonments to categorise remaining UCPN-M combatants and send them home or integrate them with the NA. The problem was that in the first round of categorisation (Nov -Dec 2011), 9690 UCPN-M cadres had opted for integration. Yet, this had to be reduced to 6500 as per the November 1 agreement. So what this implied was that a second round of voluntary retirement with similar compensation packages was to be carried forward. The hard-line faction was in loggerheads over the ranks to be awarded to the UCPN-M combatants as and when they join the NA. The opposition parties and the NA top echelons considered this unreasonable. They believed that the rank had to be granted as per the individual merit, educational and technical qualifications of the persons concerned. Despite a lot of bargaining and internal pressure, the NA had by April 11 taken control of the 15 satellite camps, which had remained once the 7000 UCPN-M combatants had undergone VR in Feb 2012. Now these 15 camps with their 3000 weapons had also been taken control of by the NA forces. The Baidya faction termed it as a surrender. Even Prachanda on April 11 admitted that the integration process was being pushed forward in haste fearing the obstacles that might be put forth by the Baidya camp. Even after deciding to hand over the PLA cantonments to the Nepal Army, the parties were yet to agree on the ranks for the combatants going for integration, standards of integration, training period, formation of the selection committee and the composition of the General Directorate to be formed under the NA . That is why a four member technical committee was formed on April 11 to address these issues. Thus, the ex-PLA combatants showed how little they trusted their own leaders. As if all these were not enough, the selection committee constituted to oversee the integration of the combatants was itself mired in controversy. The committee is to be headed by Nepal PSC June 2012
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chief Kayo Devi Yami who is incidentally the sister of the current Nepal PM's wife, and is to have an army general — Major General Daman Ghali (brother-in-law of the present Chief of Army Staff ). It is remarkable why Ghale who was mired in controversy because Chatraman Singh Gurung (CoAS) was at one time wanting to create an additional post of Lt General so as to accommodate him. If in such a scenario, the rank and file of the ex-combatants is jittery about favouritism and nepotism ruling the roost, they cannot be faulted. The issues now remaining were those involving the federal basis of the country, the formation of Truth and Disappearance Commission, the kind of electoral system to be adopted. The CA Committee on Forms of Governance was the only committee which submitted multiple proposals. The UCPN-M proposed a multiple-member, proportional, directelectoral system based on proportional inclusion, to be determined on the basis of the population, geography and socioeconomic factors. The NC and CPNUML proposed a mixed system, with half-the-members elected directly on First Past The Post and half to be elected proportionally. Meanwhile, on the political front, hectic parleys were going on between the big three and the UDMF (United Democratic Madheshi Forum). "The parties have agreed on the form of the governance and electoral system," said Home Minister Bijaya Kumar Gachchhadar, who is also the chairman of the Madheshi Janadhikar Forum-Loktantrik. According to him, the understanding is to adopt the mixed electoral system where President and Prime Minister would share executive powers (Finnish Model) However, the parties are yet to decide the basis to elect the president or define the jurisdiction for PM and President. The greatest thorn appears to be how many provinces a federal Nepal should have, how the boundaries of these provinces should be delineated and how they should be named. The UCPN-M wants a 10-state federation, the CPNUML 12 and the NC only eight with the leaders of these parties sticking to their respective positions. To amicably resolve these contentious issues, the political parties needed to show some political maturity that they trust each other and could work together to see that the May 27 deadline for the
CANNON FODDER: Maoist cadres are still fighting for integration into the Nepalese Army
constitution's promulgation was met. Towards this end, the first week of May saw some major breakthroughs. An agreement between the political parties to form a new national unity government occurred on May 2 after dissolving the current Baburam Bhattarai-led government. The meeting decided to let Baburam Bhattarai continue as the Prime Minister until May 27. Thereafter, Bhattarai-led government will be replaced by a Nepali Congress-led government. This new Interim government led by NC would lead the nation for the next one year when a new general elections would occur. On the midnight of May 3, all the 48 cabinet ministers of the coalition government resigned to pave the way for the formation of a Unity Government comprising members from not only UCPN-M and Madheshi groups, but also the NC and UML as well. However, the political drama has still many twists and turns to follow. The peeved Baidya faction (as was expected from him) decried the attempts to form a Unity Government under Bhattarai. The big surprise lies in the UML showing to be an unwilling ally by showing hesitancy and one of its top leaders even refused to join the new government. During the entire first week of May, the major political parties and their top leaders were deliberating and bargaining on a whole range of issues but could not arrive at any consensus on the most knotty problems, which were acting as impediments towards the formation of Nepal's first truly democratic constitution. As the UCPN-M Chairman, Prachanda aptly put it, "Till now, the
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responsibility to resolve the differences seen in constitution-drafting solely rested on the shoulders of the major political parties. With the decision to carry out voting on the disputed issues of constitution drafting at the CA, the responsibility has now come on the shoulders of all 601 members of the Constituent Assembly." The voting patterns, as they unfurl over the next few days, shall show whether there has been a unity of minds and a convergence of ideas between myriad parties with divergent interests, beliefs, pulls and pressures. Can Nepal's CA members rise above their petty differences to give a modern, workable constitution, which can usher in a long-term political stability to its people who have suffered a lot to aspire for these minimalistic political-rights? Finally, it must be understood by the people of Nepal that this constitution, even if drafted within the deadline, shall not be a panacea to decades of misrule and entrenched social customs, which allowed Nepal's limited resources to be appropriated by a few. Any constitution is after all a compendium of laws made supreme by consensus, decree and legal enactment. They are not at all perfect but need continuous revision, alteration to evolve organically over time. It has to be always borne in mind that the Constitution is only as good or bad as the people. It Is after all a nation's citizenry — their dynamism, activism, concern and reaction — which develops and evolves this supreme document into a workable supreme law of the land. The author is a Research Scholar at Jawaharlal Nehru University June 2012
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uilding a strong and enduring strategic partnership is like building a partnership between two great batsmen in a Test match. There will be dot balls, bouncers, and, I dare say, the odd googly… But great players draw on all their previous- shared experience. It gives you an immediate psychological edge over the bowlers. And it makes building a match-winning innings just that little bit easier and more certain”. There is an unambiguous message in the above speech delivered by Gerald Howarth, Minister for International Security Strategy at a UK-India Defence Industry Conference in New Delhi — that the strong and deep India-Britain relationship, once based on shared values, culture, democracy and history, needs to acquire greater strategic depth, dimension and direction in tune with the evolving fulcrum of economic and strategic power in the 21st century. The string of high-level visits and series of exchanges across a broad front is emblematic of the unprecedented momentum in bilateral relations.
DEEPENING Defence cooperation has become an integral component in the growing strategic relationship between India and Great Britain, writes YAMINI CHOWDHURY www.geopolitics.in
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In fact, cooperation on security issues between the UK and India is on an upward trend. Since Prime Minister David Cameron’s India visit in 2010, the UK has invested significant effort in establishing partnerships, links and long-term relationships across all branches of Indian government, private and public sectors. “Apart from close historical ties in the defence sector, it is the long and successful background of working together, which has stood Britain in good stead”, says Brinley Salzmann, Director (Overseas and Exports) at ADS, the trade organisation advancing the UK aerospace, defence, security and space industries. “Projects such as the Sepecat Jaguar and Westland Sea King are just two of the many examples of programmes in which Britain and India have worked together successfully to deliver to the Indian Armed Forces the materiel needed to assure India’s national security needs,” Salzmann adds. Though India and Britain have a strong tradition in defence cooperation, what, however, is new is that the terms of engagement have undergone a change, avers Harsh V Pant, Reader in International Relations at the Department of www.geopolitics.in
Defence Studies at King’s College, London. “It used to be the case that Britain’s historical ties with India mattered in Indian defence policy and helped the British defence companies gain a pie of the Indian market. India, after all, inherited most of the defence organisational structures of Britain after Independence. Today, however, Britain has to fight hard to retain its relevance in the Indian defence sector. Though this is partly due to its shrinking domestic defence sector, it is primarily due to the range of options that India has in the global market. The US and Israel have emerged as the most significant players in the Indian defence sector along with the traditional role of Russia. Britain is not the most important actor in global defence today, and when the leading actors are courting India, there is no need for India to give preferential treatment to Britain. As the third largest exporter of defence supplies to India attempts to build a comprehensive strategic partnership with New Delhi, defence will form an integral part of this engagement,” he affirms. It is true that Britain has been disappointed as Eurofighter Typhoon — a product of collaboration among UK, Germany, Italy and Spain — lost to the French Rafale in the race for India’s $11-billion deal for 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA). But India will continue to be widely recognised as a vitally valuable commercial partner across diverse sectors including defence, security, space and civil aviation, asserts Salzmann. “Given the current flat or even reducing state of most defence markets around the world, the fact that India’s procurement plans are still progressing makes it a particularly lucrative market for defence companies”, he says. Reinforcing India’s rapidly-rising importance for British defence companies beyond defence exports as an end itself, Glenn Kelly, Head of the Defence and Security Organisation in UK Trade & Investment (UKTI), maintains that the UK government understands the importance of mutually beneficial and strategically vital long-term partnerships between the UK defence industry and public and private defence sector companies in India. “The fact that UK defence companies, their products and their skill sets tend to be towards the high-end means that they have a lot to offer in terms of modern work practices, skills and transfer of latest technology, which are essential for India’s pur-
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suit of modernisation, self-reliance and indigenisation,” stresses Kelly. “In addition”, he states, “collaboration with UK companies can provide India companies with an access to the EU and be a stepping stone into the US.” However, there are many challenges. Kelly feels that the rapid evolution of India’s procurement process, with frequent revisions and updates of the DPP and offsets policy, is just one of them. “The biggest challenge, however, is how to best enable and encourage collaboration and transfer of skills and technology from the UK to India when there is a low limit of foregn direct investment (FDI) in the defence sector”, he says. In addition to the 26 per cent threshold limit for FDI in the defence sector and the current complexity of India’s offset regulations, both of which impede the ability of overseas firms to deliver the enhancements in capabilities sought by the Indian government to meet its national security needs, Salzmann points to the growing need for relevant British firms to offer very effective equipment, which meet the needs of the Indian armed forces, and a willingness to enter into joint venture partnerships with Indian firms to deliver the required capabilities in an extremely competitive marketplace. It may be noted here that the “Letter of Arrangement” entered into by India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) with Britain’s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (DSTL) in September 2011 is regarded as an important milestone in harnessing the respective R&D capabilities of both countries. This cabinet-level agreement, signed between Dr VK Saraswat, Scientific Advisor to the Raksha Mantri and his British counterpart, Professor Mark E Welland, seeks to leverage the R&D potential through collaborative projects, core technology development, joint ventures with industry and academic participation. Dr W Selvamurthy, Distinguished Scientist and Chief Controller (R&D) at DRDO explains the new avenues for action under the umbrella agreement. “The thrust areas of the arrangement include enhanced cooperation in low-intensity conflict operations, particularly improved IED-detection mechanisms, joint development of high energy materials, academic collaboration with Cranfield and Princeton University and development of chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN) defence technologies,” he states. “The agreement June 2012
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NICHE OFFERING: The UK is hawking the products of its sophisticated CBRN security industry to India such as this Explosive Ordnance Disposal robot built by Cobham
has paved the way for greater synergy between India and Britain in CBRN preparedness, response and mitigation, and intends to target specific areas like chemical standoff detection, bio-threat mitigation and cognitive ergonomic engineering”, adds Dr Selvamurthy. A senior official at the British High Commission in New Delhi said on condition of anonymity, “There is a real opportunity for our two countries to build a mutually-beneficial partnership across CBRN activities, notably in terms of strengthening our government and industry relationships. The UK has a mature and sophisticated CBRN security industry that is keen to work with its counterparts in India. Several partnerships are already developing. There is much to be gained through sharing experience. “CBRN technology and materials are spreading and we must ensure that the legitimate, peaceful benefits of such technologies are accessible, but in a responsible manner. The risk of CBRN terrorism affects us all. Such a terrorist act would have catastrophic consequences. The UK and India share the common objective of preventing non-state actors from obtaining CBRN material and the sensitive information, technology or expertise required to acquire or use that material for malicious purposes. International cooperation is key to preventing this.” This year a delegation of UK officials, researchers and industry attended a UKIndia CBRN conference in New Delhi at www.geopolitics.in
FICCI to explore opportunities. Jeremy Browne, British Minister in the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, said at the conference on February 16, 2012: “You (India) have a key role to play in the international arena — in security, in non-proliferation, in shaping the international regulatory architecture. The British government has repeatedly reiterated its belief that India deserves a place at the top table of the world’s decision-making bodies. We would like to see India be part of the international export-control regimes. We will continue to support a permanent seat for India on the Security Council of the United Nations.” Other aspects of deepening security cooperation between India and Britian include the fight against terror and piracy. Dr Walter Andersen, Director of the South Asia Studies Program at the School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, believes that mutual concern for individuals and groups involved in terrorism, some of whom are issues for both countries, is instrumental in increasing engagement between the two nations. “In addition to intelligence sharing and tactical cooperation, the provision of specific security practices and sophisticated technical tools and technologies developed by Britain to India would add strength to the fight against global terror,” he articulates. Piracy in the Indian Ocean is yet another intractable issue that has rattled the Indian security establishment. Vice
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Admiral (Retd) Pradeep Kaushiva, Director, National Maritime Foundation, advocates that both India and Britain must determine their respective stake in the geographical region and calibrate their role therein for a more constructive contribution towards protection of the sea lanes of communication (SLOC’s). “India is an involved party because $110 billion worth of trade and 300 merchant ships pass through the Gulf of Aden every year. The Gulf of Aden is within India’s maritime neighbourhood and 6 per cent of the world’s merchant mariners are Indians. Likewise, Britain must determine its own stake, arrive at a political decision on whether and how much to actively engage, allocate resources for the task and then pursue it to its conclusion. Since a wide spectrum of activities contributes towards smooth flow of global trade, Britain can join hands with India in ways which best suit her capabilities and interests,” recommends Admiral Kaushiva. Professor Malcolm Chalmers, Director, UK Defence Policy at Royal United Service Institute for Defence and Security Studies, believes there is an evident need for closer cooperation between the two countries in Afghanistan. “Both nations share an interest in stabilising the country after 2014, and in ensuring that it does not descend into another civil war. Both have made major investments in the country in recent years. There are real opportunities for working together on economic development aid, with both committed to continuing this effort, and to train and finance the Afghan security forces,” he opines. Nitin Desai , former UN Under Secretary General and Co-Chair of the IndiaUK Roundtable, points to the growing importance of Indian corporates as investors in Britain and the rising importance of the Indian diaspora in Britain’s economic, political and cultural life. “In some ways this is unique that a rich, developing country is not just a source of investment, technology and human capital, but also a destination. It makes for a more even relationship and may play a role in influencing UK policy on sensitive issues. If nothing else, it means that there is a powerful lobby ready to argue India’s interests in the highest policy councils in the UK. This surely is an additional dimension that could shape defence cooperation between the two countries,” he concludes. The author is a Delhi-based journalist . June 2012
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ast year in October on my way back to New Delhi from a trip to Seoul, I was supposed to transit at the Bangkok airport. A Korean friend cautioned me before departing to check if the airport was operational as a major part of Bangkok city was inundated by flood. As it transpired, the airport was operating but the city was in a shambles. Though Don Muang airport, used by budget airlines for domestic flights and by private planes, remained closed after October 25, 2011, the main international airport, Suvarnabhumi, through which I was to transit, was operating. Thailand's worst floods in at least 50 years devastated vast portions of industry, farmland and manufacturing, resulting in a sharp drop in output. The GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2011 dropped to a negative 9 per cent. As Thailand's economy is bouncing back and the situation improves steadily, the government, central bank and economists that slashed their economic growth forecasts are revising their estimates. There is hope. Though flood-related damages were to the tune of $42.2 billion, rebuilding and the improvement of flood defences over the longer term are hoped to stimulate the economy. Thailand's bruised economy is depending on government flood support funds, pent-up domestic demand and renewed corporate investment to spur growth. The uncertain international economic environment may prove to be a challenge for recovery, however. Flooding, that began in July 2011, claimed more than 800 lives. Thai economic growth plunged in the final quarter of 2011, as water inundated vital farmland and industrial estates on the central plains. By December 2011, Thailand's annual www.geopolitics.in
BRUISED ECONOMY: Once the twelfth largest manufacturer of automobiles in the world, Thailand is yet to recover from last year’s devastating floods
HARD TIMES Thailand is struggling to recover from devastating floods of 2011, writes RAJARAM PANDA economic growth was just above 2 per cent. In January 2012, the state think-tank, the National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB) said investment and exports would be key economic drivers in 2012. While investment growth is likely to reach more than 10 per cent from four per cent in 2011, household consumption is also set to rise and the annual growth is likely to be about 5 per cent. Though the government is optimistic that the growth rate could reach close to 7 per cent because of flood recovery spending to the tune of over $11 billion, rising inflation could somewhat dampen consumer spending. Also, the flood's impact on the fertile central plains, which accounts for nearly half of the country's agricultural output, could be wide. The region is also home to several major industrial estates producing automobiles and consumer hard disk drives (HDD). The floods brought two key economic issues to the surface. First, Thailand is the world's second largest hard disk drive producer. The production disruptions to global production chains are affecting comput-
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er manufacturers, production of cars and electronic components. These have led to disruptions in global supply and further weakened already anemic global economic activity. The effect of the floods on Thailand's economy was so huge that both small traders and multinationals alike became victims to the water. Seven huge industrial estates were abandoned to the deluge, despite strenuous efforts to reinforce barriers and government promises that they would be protected at all costs. Second, the floods showed that natural disasters were a major attendant business risk in Thailand. Both issues are important from a policy perspective and therefore prompted an urgent government response. For decades, Thailand has been the primary manufacturing hub in Southeast Asia, exporting to industries around the world. The floods badly disrupted industries in which Thailand plays a significant role in the global supply chain. Thus, the flood was no longer a local economic problem. With regard to the automobile industry, Thailand is the world's 12th largest June 2012
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vehicle producer and therefore, well integrated with the industry's global supply chain. At a time when Japanese automobile companies were recovering from a series of recalls and the devastating earthquake and tsunami, they started worrying anew about parts supplies and production continuity, not just in Thailand but globally. Of all the Japanese carmakers, Honda's plant in the Rojana Industrial Estate was the one directly hit first. Almost all manufacturers had to cut back production across the board. Toyota, Mitsubishi, and Ford paused local production. The impact was felt as far as in North America, where missing parts forced Honda and Toyota to curtail operations. More than 70 per cent of Thailand's auto production was under threat. Another key industry at risk was hard disk drives. About 45 per cent of the world's computer hard-drives are produced in Thailand, but manufacturers such as Toshiba and Western Digital shut
down operations at waterlogged plants. Factories of Western Digital, the world's largest HDD manufacturers with around 60 per cent of its total production based in Thailand, were submerged in the Nava Nakorn and Bang Pa-in industrial estates. The same fate befell Toshiba, the producer of around 11 per cent of global HDD supply, whose factories, also in Nava Nakorn and Bangkadi estates, were submerged. Seagate, the second largest HDD maker, also faced enormous constraints from swamped suppliers such as Nidec and Minebea. Almost 40 per cent of local electronics capacity was damaged by floods. Shortages are predicted in the coming months, potentially pushing up prices of PCs worldwide. Familiar names such as Panasonic, Nissan, Nestle, etc remained surrounded by a glistening lake of filthy water. UN economists warn export dependent economies such as China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand and Hong Kong would also face a threat of an export slowdown because of the economic uncertainties in European markets. But the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, in a December 2011 report, says trade within the Asia Pacific region should provide a key boost to the Thai economy. The government has set aside $11.6 billion to ensure continued growth and to allay investors' concerns. This fund would go for investment in water management and flood-prevention programmes to lessen the impact of future floods. A fund has also been created to address concerns about the rising costs of flood-related insurance. The latest macroeconomic data suggest a steady recovery is taking place, but at a slower pace than anticipated. One can see
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SWEPT AWAY: The deluge destroyed the livelihoods of millions in the country
some optimism as in February 2012, industrial capacity utilisation was almost back to pre-flood levels. The second quarter of this year could see some improvement. This could set the stage for a stronger rebound of economic activities thereafter. The momentum of recovery appears to be stronger on the demand side because it is being driven by private consumption, increased government spending and high levels of private investment linked to businesses' rebuilding activities. Though exports have weakened because of a decline in global trade, private consumption has been buoyant, benefiting from liquidity fuelled by strong capital inflows as well as flood-related tax allowances and subsidies. The government's easier monetary policy has also helped. The Bank of Thailand has lowered the policy rate twice since November 2011, to 3 per cent in March 2012. Keeping inflation under check is the real worry. Managing economic recovery and maintaining stability are the key challenges for Thailand's macroeconomic policy going forward. Other challenges could stem from continued weakness of the global economy caused by problems in the euro zone which could put further downward pressure on global and regional growth. The effects on this slowdown on Asia and the possible ripple effects elsewhere could emerge as concerns. NaRanong Kitirat, Minister for Commerce, bases his optimism of Thailand registering 7 per cent growth in 2012 on government policies that focus on three points: revenue growth, agricultural production and wages. However, Finance Minister Thirachai Phuvanatnaranubala predicts growth of at least 5 per cent. The domestic political situation also may impact the recovery process as investors' confidence could be dented. Analysts put the political factor among those that influence the economic growth. The Thai economy recorded a positive balance of around 4 per cent, until the recent change of government that led to the defeat of Abhisit's Democrats, and marked the rise of Thaksin Shinawatra's sister. Though most problems were caused by the floods, political interference in the management of water resources complicated the matter. These are critical challenges for the Thailand government in the remaining months of 2012. The author is a former Senior Fellow at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. June 2012
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THE MALDIVIAN
IMBROGLIO The controversial ouster of President Mohammad Nasheed in February has left India with few options to deal with the present regime led by Mohamad Waheed, writes N MANOHARAN
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HE POLITICAL crisis in Maldives that unfolded after the ouster of Maldivian Democratic Party’s (MDP) Mohamad Nasheed, the first democratically-elected head of the atoll-state, continues to be volatile. In a surprising turn of events — even for many Maldivians — President Nasheed resigned on February 7, 2012 in the wake of anti-government protests and police mutiny. Although Mohamad Waheed Hassan Manik, who was elevated as President (from Vice Presidentship), insisted that it was “not a coup”, Nasheed claimed that he was threatened with a “bloodbath” if he refused to step down. In his address to the nation soon after his resignation, Nasheed stated, “I don’t want to hurt any Maldivian. I feel my staying on in power will only increase the problems, and it will hurt our citizens. So the best option available to me is to step down.” However, within days of his resignation Nasheed took to the streets with his supporters, initially demanding his reinstatement as President, but later calling for snap polls to “determine genuine wishes of people”. This created a stand-off for many reasons. First, a constitutional amendment is required to hold mid-term Presidential elections. According to Article 125 (c) of the Maldivian Constitution, “Where fresh presidential elections have to be held for any reason during the currency of an ongoing presidential term, persons elected to the office of the President or the Vice President shall only continue in office for the remainder of the ongoing presidential term.” Three-quarters majority of the total membership of the Majlis Maldives’ parliament - is required for any
UPHILL STRUGGLE: Maldives has been in a state of flux ever since the controversial ouster of President Mohammad Nasheed
June 2012
g DIPLOMACY amendment to the Constitution (Article 261). Since non-MDP parties are not in favour of mid-term polls, it is difficult to muster the requisite majority to carry forward the amendment. The present regime is not interested. Second, although committing himself for early elections, President Waheed later added a caveat by saying early elections were possible if conditions were “right”. To him, the “right” conditions meant that “there is continuation of peace...bring back confidence and create rule of law”. Reading this as an excuse to go back on commitment made to the international community, the opposition MDP led by the deposed President Nasheed wowed to continue the protest till elections are announced. Nasheed feels early elections are essential to make sure that entrenchment of Gayoom’s remnants and Islamic fundamentalists does not take place through Waheed. What led to the present imbroglio? The immediate chain of events that triggered Mohamad Nasheed’s downfall commenced with the arrest of Criminal Court Chief Justice Abdulla Mohamed on charges of “misconduct and favouring opposition figures”. However, the antiNasheed storm had been gathering for nearly a year. Nasheed began well in October 2008 after ending the threedecade long Maumoon Abdul Gayoom’s rule in the country’s first free elections that was hailed as “heralding a new era of democracy and progressive politics”. At the global level, Nasheed campaigned intensely against climate change and even held a Cabinet meeting under water to highlight the dangers of rising sea levels. To coordinate environmental policy among a group of about 30 countries most affected by climate change, he established the Climate Vulnerable Forum. Domestically, he pushed aggressively for reforms in political, social and economic arenas. In the political field, he concentrated on freedom, independence of judiciary and anti-corruption to make Maldives as “the most promising young democracy in the region”. He was pushing for a change to a parliamentary system from the existing presidential form of government; if that was not possible, he strongly pleaded for refining the presidential system. But the Majlis dominated by the opposition Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) (party of Nasheed’s predecessor Abdul Gayoom) and its allies did not www.geopolitics.in
offer requisite cooperation, resulting in frequent political and constitutional deadlocks. Some described it as “scorched-earth politics”. To add to the agony, the well-entrenched conservative bureaucracy could not move fast enough with Nasheed’s pace and expectations. Resentments started brewing. Had Nasheed exercised ruthless purging of civil and military bureaucracy immediately after his takeover, things would have been different. On the economic front, when Nasheed assumed office, the public expenditure was at a peak of 64 per cent of Maldivian GDP; and about 70 per cent of Government revenue was being spent on public sector wages. The global economic recession at around the same time had a severe impact on Maldives, whose economy is heavily dependent on tourism. The President was left with no option but to embark on major fiscal and economic
GIVEN ITS STRATEGIC LOCATION, THE STABILITY OF MALDIVES IS EXTREMELY CRUCIAL reforms overseen by the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The structural reforms involved curtailing of state spending, freeing the private sector to lead as the engine of growth, in addition to devaluation of the rufiyaa. This did not go well with the public sector employees, who constitute 10 per cent of the population. Unemployment and high inflation damaged Nasheed’s popular standing as well. Yet, he determinedly pushed forward the reforms “to liberate the economy”. In the social arena, some of the measures taken by President Nasheed like making Islamic and Divehi as optional subjects in school (instead of compulsory), mandatory registration of all madrasas, and allowing Israeli tourists in the country received the ire of religious conservatives. They attacked and stamped his regime as “un-Islamic”. Instead of going full throttle on reforms from day one, Nasheed should
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have adopted a gradual approach appreciating the true nature of the system and the actors. He did not realise that he had just won only presidential elections and there was a long way to traverse. Gayoom’s loyalists were well ingrained in key institutions, especially in the judiciary. Most importantly, he did not have the requisite parliamentary majority to support his decisions. Instead of winning them over, Nasheed went on a confrontational mode that backfired. He also ignored building support constituencies among the common man and cultivate friends in the international community. Despite good intentions, political and diplomatic naivety of the “Obama of East” brought him to the level of having only two choices: order a bloody military crackdown on the opposition protestors and police dissidents or step down. He chose the latter, perhaps, because even a chunk of the military switched sides, and there was no support from the international community, especially India. The new President Waheed Hassan appealed to all political parties, including Islamic radicals, to come together to consolidate democracy and form a “multiparty national unity government”. In response, except Nasheed’s MDP, all other parties of the country agreed to be part of the government that was called the ‘National Unity Government’. He had no other option but to do so to have a decent majority in the Majlis to run the government smoothly for the remaining period of about 20 months. Of the total 77 seats in the Maldivan Majlis, Nasheed’s MDP has 32 members, while the opposition Dhivehi Rayyithunge Party (DRP) has 34 seats and backing of some independents. Even if the MDP does not come on board, Waheed should be in a position to run the government. But the MDP would not allow Parliament to function. Waheed was not even permitted to give a customary address to Majlis. What raised many eyebrows was the constitution of the new cabinet by Waheed. It is dominated by former loyalists of the Gayoom regime. Some of the notable appointments include Mohamed Jameel Ahmed, former Justice Minister as the Home Minister, Mohamed Nazim, a former military officer under Gayoom as Minister of Defence and National Security, Dhunya Maumoon, Gayoom’s daughter as a State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mohamed Hussain Shareef, former Gayoom’s spokesperson as Minister for Human June 2012
g Resources, Youth and Sports and Azima Shakoor, Gayoom’s lawyer as the Attorney General. Waheed is also accused of accommodating Islamists in the cabinet. This further vitiated the atmosphere for all party talks that was planned by setting up All Party Consultative Committee (APCC) with the help of Indian ‘facilitation’ to have a substantive discussion on ‘The Roadmap for a Possible Way Forward’. Options for India India has taken an unbiased position on the crisis by maintaining that it “is an internal matter of the Maldives, to be resolved by the Maldivians.” But in 1988, New Delhi promptly dispatched its armed forces to foil a coup attempt (‘Operation Cactus’) that was aimed at deposing the then President Gayoom. Since the nature of present crisis is considered more a political than a security one, India politely refused Nasheed’s invitation for a similar intervention. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, in fact, sent a note to the new President Waheed mentioning, as a “close and friendly neighbour”, India will, “as always, continue to support the Maldivian people’s efforts to build a stable, peaceful and prosperous country”. Unhappy over India’s response
FLICKR/DYING REGIMES
DIPLOMACY
STATE IN TURMOIL: The island nation has witnessed several confrontations between the supporters of Mohammad Nasheed and the police
Nasheed dubbed the immediate reachout as “misdirected, like the US” and called New Delhi to “realign itself” by making “a mid-course correction”. Later, after meeting with the Indian special envoy, Madusudhan Ganapati, Secretary (West) in the Ministry of External Affairs, and subsequently with the Indian Foreign Secretary Ranjan Mathai, he toned down to say India’s approach was “realistic towards ground realities in the Maldives”. Given the strategic location of the atoll state, its peace and stability is crucial not only for India, but also for the entire region. India should make sure that Mal-
dives should not become a haven either for Islamic militant groups or for sea pirates. There are already concerns about the Lashkar-e-Toiba’s foothold in the southern parts of the archipelago through its charitable front organisation, Idara Khidmat-e-Khalq ever since the 2004 tsunami. What came as a shock to generally peace-loving Maldivians is the violent manifestation of radicalisation in the form of the first-ever terror attack in September 2007 at Sultan Park in capital Malé in which 12 were injured. Investigations pointed fingers at the Jamaat-ulMuslimeen, a new Maldives-based terror
NEW DELHI’S DIMINISHING INFLUENCE
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hichever angle one may look at it from, Indian foreign policy has failed in the Maldives. One does not need to be a supporter of deposed President Nasheed to agree that what happened on February 7, 2012 in Male was effectively a coup. After all, three of Nasheed’s principal political detractors - former President Gayoom’s Progressive Party of Maldives and the conservative Islamic formations, the Adhaalath Party and Dhivehi Quamee Party (DQP) — joined hands in what they called as the ‘Coalition of 23rd December’ to oust him. On the night of January 29, they had met the then Vice-President Waheed (and present President) and urged him to take over the functions of presidency and called upon the Maldivian National Defence Force (MNDF) and the police to defy Nasheed and instead pledge allegiance to Waheed. That was precise-
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ly what happened. Something is seriously wrong with the Indian intelligence and security agencies that they could not assess, predict and influence the situation correctly. And this, despite the fact that under deposed President Nasheed, Maldives and India had increased defence and security cooperation. In 2009, President Nasheed had allowed India to set up 26 radar stations across 26 atolls of the Maldives. These stations are supposed to be linked to the Indian Coastal Command. India was also allowed to establish an air force station for surveillance flights to monitor the ‘movement of pirates, terrorists, smugglers’. The present regime in Male is supported by hardcore Islamic fundamentalists, whose supporters under President Gayoom had penetrated the vital organs of the State, including the judici-
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ary. In fact, Nasheed was criticised by his opponents for his moderate Islamic views. The “Islamised” judiciary was creating problems for Nasheed by blocking many progressive policies and preventing the trials of the corrupt and criminal elements under President Gayoom. Most of these judges were appointed by Gayoom. It was against this background that Nasheed was working towards reforming the judiciary and was supposed to bring out necessary legislation by the end of February this year in the Majlis where he had managed a majority sometime in January. In retrospect, it seems that the coup was staged just in time to thwart such an eventuality. The coup was also backed by the rich and politically-minded resort-owners in Maldives, most of them being supporters of previous President Gayoom. They have been monopolising the
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group, which had links with the LeT. The atoll-state is considered ideal by the jihadists for more than one reason. Maldives is a 100 per cent Sunni state with a population of about 380,000. It is made up of 1192 small islands (grouped into 26 natural atolls), most of them uninhabited, spread across over 860 kilometres in a north-south axis. Anonymity, therefore, is not an issue. The islands-state is also not too far from India’s southern coast making it an ideal launch pad for attacks by militants through sea. Pakistan-based terror groups know well that launching the next attack on India from Pakistan would be difficult due to tightened security at the Indo-Pak land and maritime boundaries. The Lashkar has plans to use tourism sector, the country’s most important source of income. Nasheed encouraged competition in this sector and tried to bring the rich resort-owners in the tax net to mop up revenue as the country had been hit by global recession. There have been reports of a Chinese angle behind the coup. After all, China had wonderful ties with the Gayoom regime. Following the then Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji’s visit to the Maldives in 2001, a proposal was made to establish a Chinese submarine base in Marao Coral Island, located about 40 km south of the capital Male. Though that did not happen, Gayoom signed a defence agreement with China that lasted till 2009. It was supposed to be renewed, but was not. As Nasheed said in an interview: “The agreement was due for renewal in 2009, but I refused to go ahead with that. I had this paper on my desk even two weeks back. The MNDF sent me the letter saying I have to sign it. Now that I am out, China will
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deserted Maldivian islands as a storehouse of weapons and explosives and moving them to India when required. These islands are also ideal for instituting training facilities especially on maritime aspects. Making use of the volatile situation, forces inimical to Indian interests may try to gain foothold in the archipelago. Notable among them is China. Beijing has for long been building maritime and other linkages with the countries of eastern Africa, Southeast Asia, Seychelles, Mauritius, West Asia, Pakistan, Maldives, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and Myanmar. The main objective behind is to ensure the security of its sea lanes, especially unhindered flow of critically-needed energy supplies from Africa and West Asia. At the same time, these linkages have doubled up as virtual encircling of India, which some experts call as “String of Pearls” construct. Maldives is undoubtedly an important “pearl”. SinoMaldives interactions have increased in the recent past to extent of China opening an embassy in Male in 2011. Chinese were among the top visitors from around the world to come to the Maldives last year. Beijing has evinced keen interest in developing infrastructure in Ihavandhoo, Marao and Maarandhoo Islands of the certainly play an active role now. They will play a much, much more active role in the Maldives”. That being the case, it is surprising to come across reports that the Indian strategic establishment deliberately avoided coming to Nasheed’s rescue, something they had done in 1988 when India foiled a coup attempt, backed by the Sri Lankan Tamil extremist outfit PLOTE, against President Gayoom. It is said that India suspected that the Nasheed regime was hobnobbing with China behind India’s back on the possibility of granting projects of naval significance. Indian security officials were also said to be uncomfortable with Nasheed’s proximity to the UK and the presence of British advisers around him. It was believed that that the UK was pleading the USA’s case to Nasheed for granting a naval presence. Nasheed was also believed to be pro-Israel. Now, the US, UK and Israel (supposed to be pro-Nasheed) are on one side and China and Pakistan (pro-Gay-
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Maldives. Not without reasons that the current dispensation in Male holds the view that “it will be to the detriment of Maldives not to engage with China”. Keeping these into consideration, India should exert enough economic, diplomatic and political leverage behind the scenes to bring all contending parties of the country to the negotiating table to thrash out a consensus political formula. For this, it is important that India is seen not disposed towards one party or the other. If the present Waheed government is seen as “illegitimate”, a neutral caretaker government may be considered till the next elections as an acceptable interim solution to break the impasse. New Delhi should make sure that the new government takes complete control of the law and order situation. India has already conveyed to the present regime that no harm should come to the former President or to any member of his government. The deposed P)resident and his party should be allowed to contest in the next elections that have now been scheduled for July 2013 in a free and fair manner and leave it to the people of the country to decide for themselves. (The author is a Senior Fellow at Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi ) oom and Islamists) on the other. If the above reports are authentic, India seems to have sided with China and Pakistan! Obviously, India’s clout in Maldives has gone down considerably in Male following the coup, despite the fact that both the deposed and incumbent Presidents have visited Delhi in the last two months. President Waheed has dared to say boldly in the Indian capital that there was no way he would be facilitating a speedy and fair general elections that he had promised to the Indian foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai who, during his two visits to Male, had prepared a “road map” with all the political parties in that country. “India is not crazy,” said Waheed on May 13 in the Indian capital, affirming that it (India) would not do anything coercive with regard to “internal matters of Maldives”. India seems to have accepted a fait accompli. — Prakash Nanda
June 2012
GEOPOLITICS
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Right Angle
SIACHEN STORY
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nd then what happened in Siachen? In As regards the strategic significance of Siachen, we 1986, I was Director General of Military must know why we went there in the first place. As MK Operations. I knew exactly what happened. Rasgotra, India’s Foreign Secretary in 1984, and a party to Pakistan laid claim to a part of the glacier the decision of the then Prime Minister Indira Gandhi to which, granted, was no-man’s land, which send troops to Siachen, has written elsewhere, in blatant Indian forces then took over. Think of the effect on a soldier’s violation of the Cease-Fire Line (CFL) Agreement of July mind. Think of the circumstances, the whole complexity. 1949 (same as the Line of Control in 1971) that had stipuKargil did not take place in isolation. It was a tit for tat. lated that from point NJ 9842 onwards the line would run Kargil should be seen in that context, you could call it an “north to the glaciers”, leaving larger part of the Siachen aberration, but it was also because we felt very bad.” glacier and the region east of it under Indian control, PakThe above remark was that of former Pakistan Presiistan was sending scientific expeditions to the area, claimdent and Army Chief General Pervez Musharraf to a Dubaiing the whole area as its territory and “Pakistan’s two allies based journalist. Thus, Pakistan’s misadventure in Kargil — China and the US — had been publishing maps showing was linked to its loss of advantages in the the entire glaciated region up to the KarakorSiachen region, when India took control, in ram Pass as territory under Pakistan’s conApril 1984, of the Saltoro Ridge that lies to the trol”. “west” of the Siachen glacier. It was with this background in view that Siachen is in the news prominently these the Army was “given the order” to move in days, thanks to the recent comments of Generand prevent the Pakistan Army from occupyal Musharraf’s immediate successor, General ing any part of the Saltoro Ridge. As Rasgotra Ashfaq Pervez Kayani, that it is “futile” for both writes, “Particularly vexing for us was the India and Pakistan to occupy “the forbidding thought that our two difficult neighbours, Prakash Nanda heights” of Siachen and that “peaceful coexisalready in illegal occupation of large chunks tence between the two neighbours is very important so of J&K territory, would link up to surround Central Ladakh that everybody can concentrate on the well-being of the on three sides within our own territory. Such a juncture people”. General Kayani said this after visiting the site of would give them dominance over the Shyok Valley and the devastating avalanche near Skardu in Pakistan-Occueasy access to Khardung La Pass, and from that vantage pied Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) on April 18, 2012, which killed point their forces would threaten Leh, a mere half days’ about 125 military personnel and 15 civilians. march from the Pass. The myth about Siachen, the adjoinSince then, proponents of peace with Pakistan “at any ing glaciated areas and the Karakorram Pass being of no cost” have been citing a number of reasons why India strategic importance is a recent invention: now that the should respond to General Kayani and facilitate the conregion is secure, such myth-making comes easy. Things clusion of a pact on the demilitarisation of the Siachen looked very different to us when a clear danger loomed on region. In fact, the Indian peaceniks have raised the pitch the horizon”. so much that Pakistan, all of a sudden, has made the resoBesides, Siachen is a part of pre-1948 Jammu and lution of Siachen imbroglio a precondition for liberalising Kashmir which we claim to be our integral territory. Thus, the visa procedures that the two countries had agreed our dispute with Pakistan is territorial. In any eventual resupon earlier to facilitate people-to-people contacts. olution of territorial disputes, possession of “disputed” terRelentless pressure is being mounted on Prime Minister ritory under one’s control is a great “strategic advantage” Manmohan Singh to withdraw Indian troops from the during negotiations to strengthen one’s claims. Should we Siachen area so that his proposed “trip to Pakistan later forgo this advantage in Siachen? Our history with Pakistan during the year will be a great success story”. has been such that surrendering advantages has not While I would love to see India and Pakistan being best brought any desired results. We released 96,000 Pakistani of friends, my problem with the Indian peaceniks is that prisoners of war after the Shimla Agreement 1972 with the they cite “strategic reasons” while advocating Indian withhope that Pakistan would eventually agree to convert the drawal from the Siachen. They say that the area is of no line of control in Jammu and Kashmir into an internationstrategic consequence for India and that the country has al border. It did not happen. We surrendered Hajipir Pass unnecessarily spent tonnes of money (` two crore per day) that we had brought under our control in the 1965 War. and lost about 20,000 lives. The factor of high cost in mainHad it remained with us, terrorists from Pakistan would taining troops and loss of lives is an overstatement. As a have found it very difficult to cross over to our side and military power of consequence, money should not be a cause havoc in Kashmir. limiting factor as maintenance of our troops elsewhere in Against this background, withdrawing from Siachen the Himalayan range at comparable heights, which is vital will be a monumental strategic blunder. for our military preparedness, will also cost us more or less the same. The casualty figures of our soldiers have been negligible in recent years, thanks to technical and infrastructural improvements. prakashnanda@newsline.in www.geopolitics.in
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June 2012