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CAN INDIA UNDERTAKE SPECIAL FORCE OPERATIONS?
geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE II, JUNE n ` 100 VOL II, ISSUE I, MAY 20112011 n ` 100
DEFENCE nDIPLOMACY nSECURITY
SPECIAL
OMINOUS SIGNS IN
NEPAL MANAGING
THE BORDERS
FIGHTER AIRCRAFT:
UPGRADATION CHALLENGES
The Thinking Brain is as important as brawn for a world-class army.
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COVER STORY (P42)
Mind Matters Sophisticated weapons are important, but new ideas in tune with changing times are also vital in winning wars.
SPECIAL FEATURE (P32)
PERSPECTIVE (P16)
PROLONGED LIFE
ONE OF ITS KIND
While acquiring new fighter aircraft, India wants to upgrade its existing squadrons, ranging from the MiGs to the Jaguars.
The Black Hawks are unique and hence successful in special operations.
SPECIAL REPORT (P36)
DEF BIZ (P30)
INTERNAL SECURITY (P54)
SURVIVING THE SCAM
SCANNER SCAM
NEW ROLES
Controversies surrounding its procurement and performance notwithstanding, multi-barrel rocket launcher Smerch is popular with the Army.
The single tender route has become the standard to favour a select few in procurement.
The Border Security Force is slowly and steadily catering to multifaceted challenges.
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June 2011
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THE CURRENCY OF CHAOS (P58)
FISSILE EQUATION (64)
THE MAOIST MENACE (P66)
THE OCEANIC FACTOR (P69)
The Pakistani ISI is trying its best to destabilise Indian economy by pumping into the country crores of fake currencies, which are also becoming handy for the terrorists in financing their misdeeds.
It has forty per cent of the world’s uranium reserves, but Australia’s concern over India’s stand on NPT is a huge hurdle to energy relations between the two countries.
After controlling the Nepalese polity, the Maoists are systematically indulging in anti-India campaigns and promoting China’s interests instead.
The Indian Ocean is witnessing many developments of great geopolitical significance. Will India rise to the occasion?
SPOTLIGHT (P8) DARING MISSION What lessons should India learn from America’s Abbottabad exercise? Can India undertake special missions to nab its enemies from foreign soil? What are the challenges involved?
DIPLOMACY (73)
MYANMAR IMBROGLIO
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COUNTRIES, INCLUDING INDIA, FIND IT
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CAN INDIA UNDERTAKE SPECIAL FORCE OPERATIONS?
geopolitics VOL II, ISSUE II, JUNE ` 100 VOL II, ISSUE I, MAY 20112011 ` 100
DEFENCE DIPLOMACY SECURITY
SPECIAL
OMINOUS SIGNS IN
NEPAL MANAGING
THE BORDERS
FIGHTER AIRCRAFT:
UPGRADATION CHALLENGES
The Thinking Brain is as important as brawn for a world-class army.
Cover Photo: Press Information Bureau, Government of India Cover Design: Ruchi Sinha
June 2011
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Promotion blues
TUMHARE PAAS stealth hai, hamre paas kshamata hai! For those of you who have no idea what Kshamata means, a literal translatation would be ‘competency’? And that’s what General V K Singh said when he was asked if India had the option of doing what the Americans did in Abbotabad. But Singh was put the wringer for what was perceived as a foot-in-the-mouth remark. For starters the Prime Minister categorically ruled out any hot pursuit option by many in the bureaucracy. The way the Army chief was publically silenced didn’t go well with the men in uniform. The army feels that as a chief what General Singh said was correct and as usual all the blame for this gaffe was put on media’s wrong translation of word ‘Kshamata’. Now will the army tell us what the correct interpretation of the word is? But for them, the real insult wasn’t the PM’s statement but DRDO chief’s ‘Its against our culture’ comment which was like adding insult to injury. So don’t be surprised if they challenge the Kshamata of the DRDO in the coming months.
RM Kehte hain: soniaji, soniaji WHOM SHOULD media follow for coverage? What should be the order of precedence for media coverage? The Ministry of Defence (MoD) seems to have solved this problem. The personality will have precedence over event. Defence Minister A K Anthony and UPA Chairperson, Sonia Gandhi were to grace two separate events of MoD almost back to back in two corners of country. Antony was inaugurating the naval facility at Karwar in Karnataka and the Goa Shipyard modernisation programme and Mrs. Gandhi was going to Udhampur to lay the foundation stone for a bridge to the valley. The media was to accompany Mrs. Gandhi. But this whole arrangement didn’t cut through to the journos, neither did it please them. No one was ready to spare four days for a non event. The officials of public relation directorate were seen beseeching the media to make the trip .Normally, a media trip by MoD to Kashmir in summer can be the perfect two in one, work cum pleasure trip. But, boy, this was a grueling trip by road up the mountains for a half an hour photo ops programme. But the taciturn Anthony made sure that he had no media following him on the two big sorties to Karwar and Goa as he normally does. The idea was that the patrakars must report on the foundation stone laying programme by Soniaji. While the local press reported the speeches at the two big ticket Navy events, the Delhi media huffed and puffed its way to Udhampur. For the record, the foundation stone is for a bridge over the river Ravi linking it to Punjab and Himachal Pradesh. A 592-meter-long bridge that will cost `145 crore and take three years for completion.
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THE PROMOTION of “approved officers” in the armed forces has got delayed due to the existing confusion in the promotion policy. Ministry is not clear whether it wants the new promotion policy as suggested by the army or continue with the old policy. And for those of you who want to know what the new and old is, it is nothing but the age old question between staff postings and staff and command postings. Should there be one stream or two ? Officers who are waiting for the promotion are anxious. With passage of time the excitement of promotion has changed into frustration and depression. For some, this delay could jeopardise their long term career prospects as unlike civil services the armed forces have fixed tenure and if you can’t make it you retire. This possibility is giving sleepless nights to many two-star generals, who are at the verge of make or break in their career.
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Single tender virus THE ABILITY to gently sweep away the competition and craft the rules in a manner where just one vendor emerges on top is something that our babus are past masters in. If reports are to be believed an RTI has been sent to the Prime Minister’s office seeking details of single tender procurement in the government over the last five years including government-to-government sales. While the G to G is no big deal in that sovereigns are dealing with each other, the PMO is apparently worried that in the post 2G era, the last thing they want is another big scandal centering around procurement, particularly in defence. The Lok Ayukta is discussing making it mandatory to have all tender results outlined in respective ministry websites. Toh twada ki hoyega Raksha Mantralaya, twade yahan to single tender norm hai exception nahin! In the Defence Ministry this is the norm, not the exception, so they have a big headache coming their way.
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HERE IS a story on Maun Vrat. One by design and the other, well, also by design. Bhai chup rahoge, to life mein koi problem hi nahi! The first will, hopefully, it will now end considering Air Marshal NAK Brown has been now formally appointed as the next chief of the Air Force. For the past six months, Brown has turned down request after request from the media for formal or informal interaction simply because he was fearful that he could say something that could well end up hurting him and his chance of succeeding Air Chief Marshal Naik. Par who to ab issue nahin raha, to bologe kya sirji? Unlikely. Unlike in the US where Commanders are ratified by the Senate and literally grilled with rounds of intense questioning by Congressional committees on a wide variety of issues from time to time including on their appointment and one knows where they exactly stand on operational matters. Unfortunately in India, 2iCs never speak and one only hears them when they take charge. Pity, Brown saab, pity. Now how do we know what’s your take on hot pursuit, on Kashmir, on China and on the MMRCA (a little bird tells us he supports Eurofighter and Naik prefers the Rafale?). Todo Maun vrat! And the other one relates to that feisty and straightforward man in charge in the Kashmir valley, Lt Gen Atta Hasnain. This magazine was the first off the mark in featuring this unusual officer and his efforts to present a humane and positive image of the army to Kashmiris. That’s been followed this last two months by a blitz of interviews and profile of the highest ranking Muslim general ever to serve in the valley. Now comes word that Hasnain has been asked to take it easy and go silent. Looks like the fauji High Command isn’t happy with the reams and reams of positive newsprint that Hasnain has brought forth in the last three months. After all, the great media success of Lt Gen Hasnain, GoC in C, 15 Corp has created quite a buzz in army circles. As a rule every 15 Corp commander has to make necessary politically correct statements, it is part of his mandate. Officials felt it had gone a little too far and became anxious to rein him in. The secular army wasn’t very happy about media labeling him as a Muslim general. Their secular credential was at stake. The senior most media spin doctor from army himself told him: “Sir, it’s enough now you should keep quiet”. So don’t be surprised if there is Maun Vrat in the coming months. That’s what the top brass wants. It’s in the national interest to keep a stiff upper lip!
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SPOTLIGHT
UNCOMFORTABLE QUESTIONS
Can India replicate Operation Geronimo if need arises? Are Indian special forces up to the mark? Some noted experts try to answer below
A
SWIFT raid by US Navy’s SEAL team in the heart of Pakistan killed Osama bin Laden. Forty-minute operation sealed a decade-long man hunt in a surgical manner SATISH MALIK which will find its place in the annals of military history and be cherished for its finesse by military professionals world over. While the exact plan may never be known, but from its execution it appeared an uncomplicated one — having the ingredients of surprise and simplicity. Air threat from Pakistan’s western skies was minimal and drone attacks from Afghanistan by the US were a routine affair; patchy air surveillance deployment by Pakistan Air Force was rightly appreciated and exploited. A punitive raid in Pakistan by Indian forces has been a much-debated issue under the sobriquet — “Hot Pursuit”. Unfortunately, it has never materialised. During the nineties, India and Pakistan indulged in raiding border pickets across the Line of Control (LoC) and even across international border. Pakistan beat us to it by staging Kargil, wherein during the winter of 1999-2000 it made a huge intrusion in Ladakh region of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) resulting into Operation Vijay. India has suffered gravest provocation in the form of proxy war from Pakistan since 1989. Yet, our response has been reactive. www.geopolitics.in
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g SPOTLIGHT India also has many other reasons and compulsions to flex its strategic muscle. Today, cumulative strength of special forces (SFs) in India is over 9,000. Despite such an impressive force level India has not exploited many opportunities which went begging. Pakistan reads Indian leadership as dogmatic and habit-ridden, which wants to play safe. Our demand of handing over of perpetrators of Mumbai bombings, Kandhar hijacking, Parliament attack, 26/11 Mumbai attacks and terrorism in Kashmir is repeatedly avoided. Perhaps the time has come to change this perception. SFs in India have been raised in a
parochial manner. Ministry of Home Affairs, Cabinet Secretariat, Army, Navy and Air Force all have their own SF organisations. There is no convergence at the top to streamline their tasking, employment, training and equipping. In the absence of a national mandate these are reduced to service-specific, taskspecific, theatre-specific organisations with limited vision, reach and capability. Growth of Indian SFs has suffered for want of a clear mandate and doctrine. This has stunted the evolution of their command and control structure, organisational development, synergy, employment, training and equipping. The political leadership/
SETTING THE BENCHMARK: With the bin Laden hit, the US Navy Seals have raised the bar for all special forces
bureaucracy does not understand the value of SF operations. Even this choice at higher level of military leadership is restricted. Correct employment of SFs is always a force multiplier. Hope Operation Geronimo will make us realise their real worth and some attention will be paid to the forces’ requirements and updating. Command and control of certain SF units has been a matter of heartburn for very long. For instance, the Special Action Groups of famed National Security Guards though entirely staffed by Army but at the apex level its command is vested in the hands of an Indian Police Service officer with zero experience to handle such trained manpower. Raising a commando or SF unit is not an assembly line operation, because only a fraction of human resource is bestowed with right kind of aptitude, attitude and physical prowess to be trained as commando. Commandoes cannot be mass produced; no matter how much resource an organisation has at its disposal. Black overalls and an AK rifle do not make a commando. A commando is there because of his or her grit and determination, correct selection and skill at arms. Organisations may survive on their mass but SF units excel due to their pristine professional qualities. SF operations have many ingredients. Intelligence acquisition and collation, communication, voice, data and video link, support operations, electronic counter-measure, suppression of air defence, fire support, means of infiltration and ex-filtration through land, air or sea and actions at the objective are some of the essential support and back-up elements. Intelligence gathering, constant surveillance and use of spy satellites are again most crucial. Fortunately, we have all these. Only requirement is to rightly integrate these and provide to our SFs for regular training, familiarisation and operations. Indian SFs are islands of excellence. They are capable of doing a Geronimo, provided these are duly backed up with these essential elements and political will at the highest level. They need to cover the entire strategic canvas. Hence, a synergy-building work to integrate SFs into decision-making calculus of politico-military leadership. Let’s make a beginning. There are many justifiable reasons and opportunities to flex our strategic muscle. We should rather exploit such opportunities primarily to convey the right message to the adversaries and also to test the mettle of our SFs. (The author, a retired Brigadier, was trained by the Israelis in counter terrorism operations)
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P E R A T I O N GERONIMO serves to highlight the glaring contrast in the American and Indian approaches to counterterrorism. The Americans have a non-partisan consensus on such operaG D BAKSHI tions. The Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations relentlessly pursued their quarry for well over a decade. The Americans have a clearly articulated counter-terror policy which states inter alia “When terrorists wanted for violation of US laws are at large overseas their return for prosecution will be a matter of the highest priority and shall be a continuing central issue in bilateral relations with any state that harbours or assists them.” It continues: “If we do not receive adequate cooperation from a state that harbours a terrorist whose extradition we are seeking, we shall take measures to induce cooperation. Return of suspects by force may be affected without cooperation of the host govt.” Herein lies the primary lesson for India for its counter-terrorist operations. A Home Ministry list indicates that India’s 50 most-wanted terrorists are ensconced in Pakistan. Pakistan began its asymmetric warfare offensive against India not in 1989 in J&K but 10 years earlier by promoting terrorism in Punjab. For 30 years the Indian State has tamely surrendered the strategic and tactical initiative to Pakistan. It has eschewed all retaliatory options and hot pursuit and solely confined its operations to defensive campaigns in its own territory. It took 10 years to quell terrorism in Punjab (where the terrain was flat and the communications infrastructure extensive). It took over 20 years and huge force levels to contain terrorism in J&K. While the rest of the world followed the “War against Terrorism” model of CT operations, India alone insisted on a “Criminal-Justice” approach based upon laws enacted in the 19th Century to deal with ordinary criminals. The US in contrast , had set up military tribunals to try such terrorists under stringent new laws designed to deal with the new threat. What then are the Indian response options to foreign instigated terrorism? Experts on low intensity conflict like Roger Trinquier, David Galula, John McCuen, Julian Paget and Frank Kitson have all unanimously insisted that external involvement in internal conflicts must be deterred through offensive action. What are the initiatory forms that this offensive action can
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entail? The aim must be to raise costs for the aggressor in a graduated manner that caters for the need for escalation dominance against a nuclear backdrop. The initial responses must be pin-point and focused and place the onus of any further escalation squarely on the aggressor. Should he choose to escalate further, air power/naval power responses must set the stage for a limited war that seeks to further raise costs and ensure compellance. The matrix of initiatory response options could be as under: Precision Air Attacks: These can be mounted on the headquarters/training infrastructure of the terrorist group responsible for the strike or against key individuals involved. With its SU-30s, Jaguar and Mirage 2000 aircraft and Precision Guided Munitions, the Indian Air Force is highly capable of executing such precise attacks not just in POK but anywhere in Pakistan. Naval Cruise Missile Attacks: Should the terrorist facilities/ leadership in Pakistan be located close to the sea board, the Indian Navy with its Brahmos Cruise Missiles could very well attack such targets in a precise and effective manner.
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Naval Aviation Strikes: Naval aviation in concert with the IAF’s SU-30s Jaguars could engage such terrorist command and control nodes and significant leaders near the sea board with a very high probability of success. Special Forces Heliborne Assaults: Indian special forces could very well mount precise and surgical operations to kill/capture key terrorist leaders and target HQ facilities especially as many of them are located close to the international border. The Indian armed forces have the requisite capabilities to conduct such attacks not only in PoK but equally across the international border.The advantage of such Geronimo-style commando raids is that they can be very precise, they could get confirmatory intelligence that the targeted individuals have been eliminated and the levels of collateral damage could be less (provided the raiding force does not get seriously engaged with defending forces). Grey Areas: The grey areas for all these options are the need for specific targeting intelligence and the chances of collateral damage to Pakistan’s civilian population. If targeting intelligence is precise, such collateral damage can be minimised. Indian June 2011
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PRECISION STRIKES: The Special Forces operators conduct extensive training before potential attacks
intelligence agencies should be able to provide such precise intelligence. Escalation Dominance: The probable Pakistani response to begin with would be “mirror imaging”— they would try to retaliate within the limits to which India has breached the escalation threshold. This would leave the advantage with India — especially if air power and naval power have been employed to initiate the strikes. India has a marked edge in air and naval power over Pakistan.This will only grow apace in the years ahead. The onus of escalation in this model is squarely placed on the aggressor. Pakistani counter-escalation in fact could help India’s air power and naval power to set the stage for a limited war. This limited war should take the form of an air-land offensive designed not so much to capture territory but simply to raise costs for Pakistan by bringing to battle and degrading its operational and strategic reserves on Pakistan’s own soil. Such a limited war between the spectral ends of nuclear war and sub-conventional conflict is very much within the current capabilities of the Indian armed forces. In
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times to come such abilities will only grow and become more potent. That should be a natural corollary of our impressive economic growth. However we need to rapidly translate economic power into usable military capabilities. Should the enemy seek to escalate the conflict in terms of vertical/horizontal escalation, we should be fully prepared to launch an Air-land offensive that seeks to bring to battle and degrade the enemy’s operational and strategic level reserves on his own soil and inflict substantial damage. It must target the ISI complexes that plan and execute the war of a thousand cuts against India and seek to destroy as much of the terrorist infrastructure as possible. Covert vs Overt Action: A strong and logical pitch has been made that India should go in for a tit for tat policy and respond in a covert manner using assets within Pakistan to do this job. This option has its difficulties in execution but is feasible. Deniability is inbuilt in this mode of response. The question however is of losing the moral high ground in this struggle against terrorist provocations. Such a response brings us down to the level of our adversary in moral terms. An overt response may carry the risk of escalation but permits us to retain the moral high ground and international sympathy. Legally it is covered by the right of hot pursuit. Let us therefore examine the overt option in greater detail. Special Forces Command: India has a plethora of special forces. The special forces of the army alone have been increased to some 9000. However these mostly provide
“Ranger” type capabilities for actions in the Tactical Battle Area (TBA). They generally do not contribute to capabilities in the Delta Force or Green Berets league. The expansion in numeric terms has entailed dilution of quality and high-tech resources. However the manpower is highly motivated and capable and some selected special forces units could pull off a Geronimo style operation if provided accurate intelligence. The Navy has its SEAL equivalent in the MARCOS and the Air Force has the Garuda compliment. Most of these are confined to tactical and at best operational art level tasks. There is little thought given to strategic tasking. The Cabinet Secratariat has its Establishment 22. The Home Ministry has milked the Army Special Forces to raise the NSG and placed them under a police officer who usually knows very little about special forces operations and generally never rises up from the ranks of this force. Turf wars and intense competition are quite destructive of overall synergy. The need therefore is to create a special forces command that skims the cream of this special forces zoo in India and combines tricap capabilities under a joint command that focuses on strategic level tasks under the PMO and NSA (through the HQ IDS). The need for a CDS to oversee such joint commands is paramount and overriding. We have the wherewithal to do an op Geronimo on Pakistan. We must develop the political will and hone the instruments for ready use.
ON GARUDA ARUDA HAVE special training which is for Air Force specific operation. Some of the capabilities are overlapping with the other special forces. PK BARBORA Depending upon the contingencies Garuda can participate along with other forces if there is any specific requirement. If a contingency is of high value like Maldives, where Air Force went along with Navy, Air Force will participate. It all depends upon task, specific templates for specific task.
electronic warfare capabilities like electronic counter-measure and electronic counter-countermeasure. What is important is the capability that they have in terms of anti-anti. (Pakistan’s anti-jamming capability). We will have to be prepared for any form of counter-measures. Any mature air force will cater for any contingencies and will take measures to make the mission successful. Case-by-case it will be decided whether any such operation will be single or joint service operation. In any operation where the air force will provide the air coverage through fighter aircrafts the probability of escalation is very high.
G
ON AIR FORCE CAPABILITY We have certain technology like any mature air force would have. We have
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(The author is a retired Major General) (Continued on page 14)
(The author is a retired Air Marshal and ex-Vice Chief of Air Staff)
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FLY, FLOAT AND
STING
Noise suppression: The five tail rotor blades are partially covered by a disk-like object that experts have called a ‘hubmounted vibration suppression system’. This could provide better noise suppression and possible protection for the tail rotor from shrapnel. And it’s not typical on military helicopters.
The aviation world has been abuzz with speculation about the uber-stealthy mystery chopper used in the bin Laden raid. Here is what we have learnt about the ‘Ghost of Abbottabad’
T
O PUT it bluntly, it was not an ordinary machine. And the verdict from defence and chopper experts from around the globe, particularly America, is clear: The helicopter destroyed in the bin Laden compound in Abbottabad is a Sikorsky Black Hawk stealth machine that, to use a classic Mohammad Ali phrase, “floats like a butterfly and stings like a bee”. So is it a new aircraft? Unlikely. The US Army has a long history of heavily modifying existing rotorcraft for secret missions. Experts are finally coming around to the view that what was left behind in Pakistan was most probably a heavily-modified and upgraded stealth-optimised MH-60 Black Hawk. The UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter, manufactured by Sikorsky, first entered service with the US Army in 1979. Since then, the $44-million helicopter has become a workhorse across all branches of the American military. There are numerous variations on the basic design, with the Special Forces typically using the highly-modified MH-60 variant. The Black Hawk has a crew of three or four and can carry 11 soldiers equipped for combat. What has made modification relatively easy is that the US had this technology for years and may actually have taken from the now-cancelled RAH-66 Comanche helicopter. That bird featured shrouded rotor heads and unspecified absorbent materials, said one expert. The Comanche was designed to be an armed reconnaissance craft capable of carrying only two people. Just two prototypes of that machine were built before the US Army cancelled the programme in 2004. At that point in time it was announced that technologies developed in the Comanche www.geopolitics.in
Blades: Photos from Abbottabad show that the chopper had a five-bladed tail rotor, on a conventional Black Hawk, you have four blades. The addition of the extra rotor blades on the tail rotor hub reduces the acoustic signature of the helicopter, thereby making it hard to hear. Shorter and thinner: The blades on the tail rotor also appear to be shorter and thinner than typical Black Hawk helicopter blades. More blades and shorter blades means the helicopter would make less noise in flight. The blades themselves are threaded, which means that these are carbon composite rotor blades as opposed to conventional metal rotor blades.
programme would be “retained” and “much of what we’ve gained out of Comanche we can push forward into the tech base for future joint rotorcraft kinds of capabilities as we look further out”. Was it used in the Black Hawks in
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Fuselage: Parts of the helicopter appear similar to nonsecret stealth aircraft. It’s a shape that’s synonymous with fixed-wing stealth fighters such as the F-22 and the F-35. Essentially, it’s designed to defeat radar.
Abbottabad? The White House and Department of Defence have refused to comment on what type of helicopter crashed in the raid. Sikorsky also declined to comment on the aircraft. June 2011
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g PANORAMA So why did the chopper go down? When air molecules heat up, air becomes less dense and helicopter blades can lose their lift ability as they land. These newer Black Hawks came equipped with special General Electric engines that were to reduce the risk of a hot landing problem. US Senators and CongressColour: Most Black Hawk Army helicopters are painted olive green, but this one is gray. Not just any gray; it’s infrared-suppressant gray, and the purpose of the IR gray, as it’s known, is to help reduce the vulnerability of the helicopter to groundlaunched heat-seeking missile systems.
men, who were briefed on the mission, said the damaged helicopter had not malfunctioned. Instead, they said, it got caught in an air vortex caused by higher-than-expected temperatures and the high compound walls, which blocked the downwash of the rotor blades. As a result, the helicopter lost its lift power while hovering over the yard and had to make a hard landing, clipping one of the walls with its tail. The SEALs were about to ‘fast rope’ into the courtyard in front of bin Laden’s house when the Black Hawk lost lift. The pilot nudged the Black Hawk forward into a controlled crash but sheared off its tail section. The SEALs were able to continue with their mission and, before they left, blew Graphic courtesy: www.aviationgraphic.com
THE GHOST OF ABBOTTABAD: The mystery chopper used to take out bin Laden is thought to be a highly modified Black Hawk with stealth features
THE WORKHORSE: The Black Hawk is the mainstay of the American armed forces since it entered service in 1978
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THE PUNISHER: The stealth chopper was instrumental in taking out America’s Enemy No 1 up as much of the Black Hawk as they could — presumably to hide the secret stealth components — but had to leave the tail section intact as it fell outside the compound. Vertical Magazine’s story on the stealth helicopter offered that radar-evading technology might have added weight to the aircraft and contributed to the hard landing that crippled the craft during the raid. The Black Hawks on the mission to capture or kill bin Laden appear to have had a modified exterior akin to the F-117 Night Hawk stealth bomber built by Lockheed Martin. Sikorsky and Lockheed have a long history together and the two share a key Naval Seahawk contract, in which Lockheed receives a basic Seahawk helicopter and upgrades it to fight submarines. While a standard MH-60 Black Hawk weighs as little as 11,124 pounds empty, reports suggest a stealthmodified version might weigh more than 12,000 pounds. The tail rotor, for instance, had extra blades to make it quieter in the air, and was covered with a discshaped device sometimes referred to as a “hubcap”. The main rotor would also have been modified and, according to some reports, the entire helicopter would have been given a “silver loaded” paint job to avoid detection by infrared sensors. There’s also speculation that the stealth helicopters may have been outfitted with larger fuel tanks, to increase their range. All that additional weight might have contributed to what aviators call “settling with power”, when a helicopter descends too quickly. But given the amount of training before the mission, it seems unlikely the pilot wouldn’t have known about the challenges caused by the additional weight. That would include making the sides of the helicopter both flatter and slanted as a way of deflecting radar signals. June 2011
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COVERT operation by the Indian Navy special forces of the Marine Commandoes on a coastal target on a neighbouring site is very much within their RANJIT RAI capability but as with USA’s recent operation it will need much training, access to detailed intelligence of the target and its defences and the latest C4ISR equipment for communications. The government will have to weigh the ramifications of the action on a nuclear neighbour and be ready to deal with escalation. Such action from sea from a submarine to inject and retrieve marine commandoes is very possible, but actions on land on terror training camps may not yield results as these are mere indoctrination camps in villages with IED and bomb-making trainers. Getting there and back will not be easy except in PoK. (The author is a retired Commodore)
CONSTANT VIGIL: India lacks the political will to commit SF operations across the border
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O S T- O P E R AT I O N Geronimo, there is much inquisitiveness whether Indian special forces can undertake a similar raid as US Navy SEALS to take out notorious celebrities like PRAKASH Dawood Ibrahim, Hafiz KATOCH Saeed, Ilyas Kashmiri, Mahmood Azhar etc. The answer is yes provided our boys could be landed in the same compound but could they have been landed there? Answer to the second question is a big NO in absence of national will and our inability to revive the concept of HUMINT that was throttled during Prime Minister Gujral’s time. An operation like Geronimo cannot be undertaken purely based on TECHINT. If the US was not 200 per cent sure about Osama’s prescence, the raid would never have gone in. Our special forces come into focus periodically when incidents like Parliament Attack, 26/11 and Operation Geronimo occur. There are calls for revisiting our special forces but the end result is only unwarranted expansion in complete disregard to global norms. The annual expansion rate in US Special Forces Command (SOCOM) is 3.5 per cent albeit for 2012, a special sanction is being sought to hike it to 4.12 per cent due to increasing commitments. This growth rate is despite President Obama sanctioning deployment of US special forces in 85 countries last year, over and above some 100 countries they were already operating in. In sharp contrast, our Army special forces expanded by about 110 per cent in period 2000 to 2003. This year, we have gone and raised the eighth special forces unit, causing a manpower shortage of 80-90 per cent personnel in all special forces units. Already, India’s special forces are at par in numbers with SOCOM, considering 2/3rd strength of SOCOM is “in support’ role comprising civilians and military which are not special forces. Our Army special forces are short of manpower, officers (no unit has even 50 per cent of authorised strength of officers), critical equipment like night vision and surveillance devices, combat free-fall equipment, laser target designators etc. The system does not even provide for proper rucksacks to special forces personnel and the ICK Kit provided cannot accommodate the amount of ammunition that needs to be carried. Units are left to improvise and get such equipment using their own funds. Unlike foreign special forces, we do not also have a separate special forces budget. Despite this mad expansion, with plans to create yet another two special forces units in the Army, the special forces
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training school, responsible for imparting advanced special skills training, remains unexpanded for past decade plus and without requisite training facilities. Specialisation has remained a casualty in the Army. We are the only country in the world where special forces are grouped with normal parachute battalions, latter essentially being regular infantry battalions in airborne mode. A special forces regiment was formed in 2004 with Lt Gen. Vijay Oberoi as the Colonel of the special forces regiment but the concept got stymied when General BC Joshi died in harness. His successor, Gen Shankar Roy Chowdhury dissolved the special forces regiment under pressure from serving and retired parachute officers. Today, we have a stupid situation where special posts like Additional Director General Special Forces in Military Operations Directorate in Army Headquarters are held by Parachute Regiment officer who have never served in special forces. Non special forces officers taking decision on special forces subjects indicates complete lack of understanding of the special forces concept. No country other than India sends whole special forces units and sub units on UN missions. They would have been employed much more gainfully in covert surveillance of India’s areas of strategic interests. Many times foreign special forces are exercised with our parachute units and even infantry units. Earlier, a team of paratroopers were even sent to Russia to train with Spetznaz instead of special forces. It does not sink in that parachute units should actually be training with foreign counterparts like 82nd and 101st Airborne Divisions of the US and similar counterparts in other countries. Establishment of an Integrated Special Forces Command (ISFC) should be treated as a national imperative. The three models that could be adopted are: One, establish ISFC under CDS (COSC in interim) with a Strategic Special Forces Cell (SSFC) in the PMO; Two, establish ISFC parallel to Strategic Forces Command under NSA with SSFC in PMO, Three, establish ISFC directly under PMO with SSFC in HQ Integrated Defence Staff. Establishment of an SSFC in the PMO is vital as strategic deployment and strategic tasking of special forces will require express sanction of the PM. SSFC in PMO will also be central to evolving and implementing a National Strategy for Employment of Special Forces, which is absent today. Personally, I am for Model Two since the CDS may not be appointed for decades to come and this does not imply that requirement of services will not be met. (The author is a retired Lt. General) June 2011
www.eurofighter.com
Document3
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Eurofighter Typhoon: The Best Multi-Role Capabilities for India Eurofighter Typhoon: the world’s most advanced new generation multi-role combat aircraft. Representing the combined strengths of Europe’s leading aerospace and defence companies, the Eurofighter Typhoon provides engineering and industrial benefits for all customer nations. Designed with an established technology insertion programme, Eurofighter Typhoon is an open platform offering industrial partnership, shared development and affordable logistics solutions.
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THE ABBOTTABAD LESSONS STEED OF THE WARRIORS: The Black Hawk is an essential part of the Special Forces equipment
Mission-Abbottabad was not a military operation but an intelligent action by an intelligence agency of the United States. It also proved that the US Black Hawk is the best helicopter as it can successfully emerge unscathed from, and victorious in, the most harsh, hostile and hot scenario, writes ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYYA
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EADQUARTERED AT Fort Bragg, North Carolina, the US Army Special Operations Command has five active duty special forces groups which are doctrinally focussed on a particular region of the world; Afghanistan coming under the purview of the combination of 3rd and 7th Groups and it is likely that the 160th Special Operations Aviation Regiment (SOAR), being the pivotal unit, carried the SEALS for operations-OBL at Abbottabad under the direct supervision of the CIA. Apparently, though it should have been the jurisdiction of the 160th SOAR to carry out the special forces operations, being an extraordinarily super-sensitive and supersecret semi-political-cum-terrorist issues in one of the most dangerous areas of Pakistan and Afghanistan’s landlocked terrain, the CIA came into fore to use force. Hence, the www.geopolitics.in
SEALS (which implies men drawn from sea, air and land forces of the USA) special units were created and placed at the disposal of the CIA at Abbottabad’s Operation OBL. And not surprisingly, the mission virtually followed the SOAR’s operation doctrine of “insertion, extraction, resupply, aerial security, armed attack, medical evacuation, electronic warfare and command and control support”. But what made the difference in the mission capability and success undoubtedly lay in the helicopter quality for swift and surreptitious deployment to, and the subsequent movement and retreat from ground zero. It all began in January 1988 afresh with the order placed for the US army special operations for Sikorsky MH-60K helos. Features to be included in the rotorcraft were provision for additional fuel tanks plus “flight refueling capability; terrain following, ground mapping and air-to-ground ranging
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radar, engines and up-rated transmission, provision for Stinger missiles, missile warning receiver, pulse radio frequency jammer, laser detector, chaff/flare dispensers, and infra-red jammer”. At the Sikorsky plant production level, there are several types/versions of the Black Hawk for different combat missions. Thus, when MH-60M “special forces derivative, intended to replace existing MH-60 fleet” came up for production, few details were available to anyone who was beyond the actual user of the flying machine. The only authentic news was that the helicopter was expected to provide new 20-year airframe life with improved avionics, electrical and dynamic systems and a replaced engine resulting in “superior hot-and-high performance”- with a delivery schedule of early 2009. Not surprisingly, therefore, more than 2400 Sikorsky MH-60 multirole medium June 2011
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helicopters have been sold across the globe. With a two-man flight-deck, “with pilot and co-pilot on armour protected seats”, a third member could be stationed in the cabin as gunner, adjacent to forward cabin window. Accommodation for fully equipped troops, or “14 in high-density configuration” explains the reported use of four Black Hawks to hunt OBL at Abbottabad. Again, the external cargo hook, having a 3630 kilogram-lift capability reveals the possible carrying of the dead human as cargo to make a swift exit from the fighting site of the Abbottabad abode of OBL. With advanced avionics, configurations vary between helicopters. Nevertheless for a mission like that of “OBL in Abbottabad”, additional avionics and self-protection equipment must have been installed in the helicopter “on mission”. The other known features of Black Hawk too appear be “good” enough to carry out www.geopolitics.in
conventional special operations deployment as the first and foremost criteria thereof revolves round being undetected; and if detected, to defend or deflect the fire and
WHAT MADE THE DIFFERENCE IN MISSION CAPABILITY AND SUCCESS LAY IN THE HELICOPTER QUALITY then thwart the threat with counter-fire. To do so, one requires what Black Hawk
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appeared to be equipped with, even before the “super-secret stealth” technology is reportedly used by the fleet of “operation Osama” at Abbottabad. With IFF (identification friend or foe transponder; voice security set; integrated communications system; “nap of the earth” digital radio; terrain-following/terrain avoidance radar; automatic flight control system “with digital three-axis autopilot”; very-high frequency omni-directional range/glideslope receiver; electronic flight management systems; thermal imaging systems; electro-optic sensor system; laser rangefinder; image-intensifying television along with various self-defence devices like “pulse radio frequency jammer; radio jammer; warning receivers; laser detector; chaff/flare dispenser and infra-red countermeasures and incorporation of combined common missile warning system/advanced June 2011
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TRUSTED MOUNT: The UH-60 has performed exemplarily in a variety of harsh and extreme conditions across the world threat infrared countermeasures”. That the Black Hawk is essentially designed and developed for mobile, agile and quick reaction time Special Forces operations for tactical purposes can very well be understood from the overall geometry and physical features thereof. Thus , whereas the internal payload of the rotorcraft is 1200 kilogram, the under-slung capacity of the machine stands anywhere between 3629 kilogram and 4082 kilogram, which clearly reveals the deployment of the man-machine ratio. Eleven/twelve fully-equipped troopers aboard going for the “kill” with anywhere between 3.629 and 4.082 tonnes of underslung military hardware. Along with the two Sikorsky MH-60 also participated three Boeing Chinook medium-lift helicopters (which have accumulated close to four million flight hours ever since their induction into the US Army in 1968). Of the various models, Chinook MH47D, 47E and 47G are special operations model the fundamental characteristics of which are “defence first”, “electronic counter-measure, early warning and jamming of the enemy signals second” and “assault last” for mission accomplishment. With more than 24 customer nations using 1412 helicopters across the globe, the versatility of the Chinook is unquestionable. Yet, Chinook too had faced serious “mission software www.geopolitics.in
problems” in the past thereby delaying delivery to the US Army Special Operations Command in 1994. It needs to be remembered that only eight countries (China, India, Japan, South Korea, Poland, Romania, Russia and the USA) today make helicopters; and the five European producers have stopped manufacturing on their own. Instead, they (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) are international collaboration/partners with each other in joint venture programme.
MORE THAN 2400 SIKORSKY MH-60 MULTIROLE MEDIUM HELICOPTERS HAVE BEEN SOLD Post-OBL Abbottabad, it has, however, often been asked whether India is capable enough to undertake similar special forces operations across the border, should the need arise. Theoretically, the Indians do have
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the capability and strength as found from the (Jane’s) published order-of-battle:- “Special forces consist of five para-commando battalions: 1, 2, 9, 10 and 21 Para (SF) Battalion. Their role is to provide rapid reaction and counter-terrorist forces, and to attack and disrupt enemy vital points, lines of communication and the command and control systems during conventional operations and at least one unit is trained in deep-penetration operations”. India also has the basic aerial wherewithal to operate through from “take off to target” missions. With 110 multi-role Dhruv advanced light helicopters, several squadrons Mil-8, Mil-17 and Mil-26 with the Air Force, India’s problem is not the paucity of capability, but lack of intention and inherent vacillation of India’s non-military bosses, which is understandable, given the complicated demography of South Asia with a nation (in India’s vicinity) infested with terrorism, fundamentalism and afflicted with congenital hatred to every possible country in the world. Moreover, the “operational spots” for the Indian forces, unlike the Americans, are too close for uncontrollable fundamentalist and religious backfire and backlash within India. (The author is alumnus of the National Defence College) June 2011
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gONLOOKER DIPLOMATIC DEBACLE? THE SUNDAY Times reacted angrily to the Sri Lanka External Affairs GL Peiris’ recent visit to Delhi. Read it to get a perspective of the mindset in the Island nation. “Going by the joint statement (‘joint’ is the operational word), the Minister committed himself, his government, and his country to doing all what his hosts wanted from him, his government and his country. This document displays, sadly, how the Sri Lankan Minister has succumbed to the heavy breathing down his collar. It has reference to unsolicited counseling on the one hand, titillating offers of gifts and tantalizingly veiled threats, but nothing beats the reference to urging the
QUIP METER! OBAMA ON his Secretary of State: I want to thank Hillary Clinton, who has traveled so much these last six months that she is approaching a new landmark — one million frequent flyer miles. I count on Hillary every day, and I believe that she will go down as one of the finest Secretaries of State in our nation’s history. EXCERPTS FROM President Obama’s speech on America and the Arab World The question before us is what role America will play as this story unfolds. For decades, the United States has pursued a set of core interests in the region: countering terrorism and stopping the spread of nuclear weapons; securing the free flow of commerce, and safe-guarding the security of the region; standing up for Israel’s security and pursuing Arab-Israeli peace. We will continue to do these things, with
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Government of Sri Lanka to provide for ‘genuine reconciliation’. This is nothing but an unmistakable slap that Dr. Peiris has timidly accepted on behalf of the Mahinda Rajapaksa administration for the inclusion of the word ‘genuine’ before the word ‘reconciliation’ is nothing but a reflection that India views present efforts at reconciliation to be ‘farcical’. “There seems to be little or nothing that Sri Lanka has gained from these talks. Leave alone not getting any assurances of support to oppose the UN panel report on allegations of human rights violations, there is not a hum even about Indian support for Sri Lanka’s bid to host the Commonwealth Games in 2018. Then the minister has not only agreed to develop on the 13th Amendment, but to do so in consultation with Tamil parties in Sri Lanka. What about other political parties? It has been a dismal performance, to say the least. “One of the more significant aspects of the Peiris visit was that none of the Foreign Service professionals accompanied him. It was an unprecedented step taken. Usually, the secretary to the ministry is by the minister’s side should any professional advice be required; so too is the director in charge of India. But on this occasion, and for the first time, such a
high profile visit on such important issues was without a single Foreign Service official. “Peiris was meeting not only his counterpart SM Krishna and Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh but also senior External Affairs Ministry officials, known as the ‘Brahmins’ of the much-admired Indian public service. For Peiris to go to that den alone, accompanied only by a junior MP, Sajin Vaas Gunawardene, was brave if not foolhardy. The results showed that it was more of the latter. “Having said that, there was at least one silver lining in an otherwise hopeless performance by the Minister of External Affairs this week, i.e., the congratulatory letter he wrote to Jayaram Jayalalithaa, the newly elected Chief Minister of the southern Indian state of Tamil Nadu, thus re-opening the doors for a dialogue with that important state. We have long urged such interaction because such a political and diplomatic exchange is a sine qua non to stability in Sri Lanka’s immediate neighbourhood. “Next week, a new headache opens with the UN Human Rights Council meetings in Geneva as Sri Lanka tries to ward off any possible moves to bring ‘war crimes’ charges up for discussion. If the Sri Lankan Government feels it is being encircled and besieged by the International Community, including India, this is true. But it has no one but itself to blame for most part”.
SEMINAL SPEECH the firm belief that America’s interests are not hostile to peoples’ hopes; they are essential to them. Yet we must acknowledge that a strategy based solely upon the narrow pursuit of these interests will not fill an empty stomach or allow someone to speak their mind. Moreover, failure to speak to the broader aspirations of ordinary people will only feed the suspicion that has festered for years that the United States pursues our own interests at their expense. Given that this mistrust runs both ways — as Americans have been seared by hostage taking, violent rhetoric, and terrorist attacks that have killed thousands of our citizens — a failure to change our approach threatens a deepening spiral of division between the United States and Muslim communities. That’s why, two years ago in Cairo, I began to broaden our engagement based upon mutual interests and mutual respect. I believed then — and I believe now —that we have a stake not just in the stability of nations, but in the self-determination of
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individuals. The status quo is not sustainable. Societies held together by fear and repression may offer the illusion of stability for a time, but they are built upon fault lines that will eventually tear asunder. So we face an historic opportunity. We have embraced the chance to show that America values the dignity of the street vendor in Tunisia more than the raw power of the dictator. There must be no doubt that the United States of America welcomes change that advances selfdetermination and opportunity.
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O N L O O K E R HIDING BEHIND THE DRONES PAKISTAN’S NEWSLINE Magazine recently published a revealing piece on the drone attacks, Imran Khan’s anger and opposition to these attacks and what they perceived as his double standards: “Imran Khan promises to free Pakistan of injustice, poverty, homelessness, illiteracy and unemployment while empowering women and securing equal rights for religious minorities. But Khan’s critics label him a Taliban sympathiser who garners support by using the anti-US card when anti-US sentiments already are high. Whereas Khan staunchly opposes the drone strikes in Pakistan and repeatedly blames them for rising terrorism in the country, critics feel he has not been vocal enough in condemning religious fanatics across Pakistan. And while he has not protested against suicide attacks on the civilian population, he has led several sit-ins against CIA-operated Predator drones. His claim: the menace of terrorism (which the US claims the drones contain) can be uprooted within 90 days under his
leadership if the drones stopped raining ‘hellfire.’ “Imran Khan does condemn all forms of terror, but why does he fail to protest against these terrorist organisations and against their distorted teachings with the same vigour he employs when rallying against US drones? And, ironically, why does he instead seek support from them? Where were the sit-ins against the ideology that led to the assassination of Salmaan Taseer or Shahbaz Bhatti? What if there were no drone attacks, would Taseer and Bhatti have been saved? Would the thousands that celebrated their death and forbade prayers at their death suddenly have become champions of interfaith harmony and preachers of pacifism? Would stopping drone attacks and fighting the war on our own stop extremism? “Imran Khan claims he can end the decades-long menace of terrorism by bringing an end to drone attacks. To that, I respond: if the aim of your sit-in really is to end terrorism and not just garner political support, Mr Khan, then shift in site… that’s all.”
ARAB UPRISING DISTURBS FLOW OF INTEL WESTERN SECURITY officials worry crucial intelligence on terror groups in North Africa will dry up as repressive — but effective — security services are dismantled or reorganised following the Arab revolts. Those concerns, expressed by European and Israeli intelligence officers in interviews with media, add urgency to reports of foreign fighters with suspected al-Qaida links crossing into Tunisia. E x t re m i s t groups such as al-Qaida in the Is l a m i c
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Maghreb (AQIM) are not believed to have played a big role in the uprisings in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. But concerns are mounting they will exploit the instability caused by the sudden collapse of autocratic regimes that clamped down hard on terrorism and cooperated with the West.”The intelligence coming from our partners in North Africa has been very important over the years,” one European security said. “Although the agencies were seen as being particularly brutal, they were often very effective,” he said. “I think it’s too soon to say what will happen in North Africa, but it’s fair to say that we’re concerned further instability could affect intelligence exchanges.” Another intelligence official from a different European country said there already is a noticeable drop in the flow of intelligence from North Africa. While Pakistan, Afghanistan and Yemen are considered priority countries in the fight against al-Qaida, North Africa has been a staging ground for various terror groups affiliated with, or inspired by, al-Qaida leaders.
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MR KHAN’S EXPLOSION AMERICAN WEEKLY, Newsweek recently published a report on how Pakistan is aggressively accelerating construction at the Khushab nuclear site, about 140 miles south of Islamabad. Satellite images published by the magazine reflected that Pakistan will soon have a fourth operational reactor, greatly expanding plutonium production for its nuclear-weapons programme. “The buildup is remarkable,” says Paul Brannan of the Institute for Science and International Security. “And that nobody in the US or in the Pakistani government says anything about this — especially in this day and age — is perplexing.” It also had an interview with the father of Pakistan’s nuclear programe, Dr AQ Khan: “Pakistan’s nuclear program has always been a target for Western propaganda and false accusations. I would like to make it clear that it was an Indian nuclear explosion in May 1974 that prompted our nuclear program, motivating me to return to Pakistan to help create a credible nuclear deterrent and save my country from Indian nuclear blackmail. “The question of how many weapons are required for credible deterrence against India is purely academic. India is engaged in a massive program to cope with the nonexistent threat posed by China and in order to become a superpower. India doesn’t need more than five weapons to hurt us badly, and we wouldn’t need more than 10 to return the favor. That is why there has been no war between us for the past 40 years. “Don’t overlook the fact that no nuclearcapable country has been subjected to aggression or occupied, or had its borders redrawn. Had Iraq and Libya been nuclear powers, they wouldn’t have been destroyed in the way we have seen recently. If we had had nuclear capability before 1971, we would not have lost half of our country—present-day Bangladesh—after disgraceful defeat. “We achieved credible nuclear capacity by the second half of the ‘80s, and the delivery system was perfected in the early ‘90s. For a country that couldn’t produce bicycle chains to have become a nuclear and missile power within a short span — and in the teeth of Western opposition — was quite a feat.”
June 2011
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DEF BIZ KEEPING IN SHAPE An upgraded Mirage 2000 will remain, as in the past, lethal
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DEF BIZ HINDUJAS EYE THE AEROSPACE SECTOR In yet another example of private involvement in the defence industry, the Hinduja Group is developing its base in India to enhance its products offerings and enter the aerospace industry. Hinduja Group unit, Defiance Technologies, has already started work on testing and validation for aerospace systems even as Ashok Leyland Defence Systems carries out design and engineering for sub-systems in India. Ashok Leyland is already involved in
several projects with the armed forces of India as well as other countries. It recently showcased its models for the defence forces in the UAE for lucrative projects in the region. The Hindujas already have a considerable experience in the Middle East for several years and have developed special automobiles for the armed forces, including light recovery vehicles, high mobility vehicles, field artillery trucks and fire fighting trucks. According to a senior official from the group, the Hundujas created a separate entity for defence sales and have seen improved results. He also added that defence was the thrust area and the group was expanding its products through two joint ventures.
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g MILAP CARBINE OFFERED TO INDIAN ARMY
Continuing the trend of indigenisation of weapons, the Ordnance Factory Board has offered the Milap carbine to the Indian Army. The weapon has left a trail of controversy in recent years after the Army began its hunt for a new version of the carbine for a couple of years ago. Carbines are usually used for close quarter battles. OFB has tied up with Defence Research and Development Organisation to create the gun after an arrangement to make a carbine in association with Singapore Technologies was put on hold following an alleged corruption scandal. Called Milap, after
the joint venture, the OFB-DRDO carbine is expected to be presented to the Army for trials soon. The Milap costs about `50,000 to make compared to the nearly ` one lakh price tag envisaged with the version to be made with Singapore Technologies. Approximately 20 prototypes of the carbine, made at the Small Arms Factory in Kanpur, are to be presented to the Army, after which the bulk production would start subject to the requirement of the armed forces. Whether the OFB bags the order or not manufacturing of the carbine selected by the Army will take place at a new factory coming up at Korba in Chhattisgarh. The OFB had earlier developed a 5.56 mm carbine called the Amogh but it did not get the acceptability among the armed forces. Sources say the Milap has better range and accuracy compared to the existing carbines used by the armed forces.
HAL DELIVERS DORNIER The Transport Aircraft Division of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited handed over another Dornier-228 multi-role maritime surveillance aircraft to the Director General of Coast Guard recently. This was the 100th Dornier 228 aircraft, which has been produced for Indian Coast Guard by HAL. Over the years, HAL has produced 4-seater transport aircraft (HS-748), 18-seater multi-role transport aircraft called Dornier-228, Rohini & ITG-3 gliders, an agriculture aircraft
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g AWARDS FOR BEL May 7, 2011. Mr Sarma was conferred with the award for his contribution to the development, manufacture, qualification and induction of a number of EW systems on different platforms for the three Services. BEL, a major player in the field of electronic warfare, designs and manufactures a wide Mr IV Sarma, Director (R&D), receiving the range of EW systems Association of Old Crows Award from Dr Prahlada, to suit the exacting DS & CC R&D (Ae&SI), DRDO, at a function standards of the organised in Bengaluru Indian armed forces. The range includes Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL), has ground-based, airborne, shipborne and been conferred with the Association of submarine- based EW systems for elecOld Crows (AOC)’s award for the “Best tronic support measure, electronic Contributor in Electronic Warfare (EW) intelligence, communication intellifrom Indian PSUs”. Association of Old gence, electronic counter-measure Crows is a non-profit, international or- and integrated electronic warfare appliganisation comprising 30,000 members cations. Earlier the Navratna PSU respecialising in electronic earfare, tacti- ceived the Dun & Bradstreet-Rolta cal information operations and related Corporate Award under the ‘Electrical topics. Mr IV Sarma Director, (R&D), re- and Electronic Equipment’ category for ceived the award from DRDO chief Dr the year 2010. The awards felicitated 54 Prahlada, at a function organised by of India’s leading corporate names AOC’s India chapter in Bengaluru on across sectors.
NO 100 called HA-31 Basant and a basic trainer aircraft called HPT-32. Future projects of the division are Intermediate Jet Trainer (IJT), SARAS light utility aircraft, and a 60 to 90-seater regional transport aircraft (RTA) deliveries for which would commence in 2012-13. Till date, 99 aircraft have been supplied as flyway/produced in the division for customers like Indian Air Force, National Airports Authority, Indian Coast Guard, Indian Navy and Vayudoot. The division is geared up to produce another 12 aircraft for Indian Coast Guard. Two aircraft, in maritime surveillance version, have been exported to Mauritius.
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ESSAR TO SUPPLY STEEL FOR WARSHIPS Essar’s Steels plate products have now been approved by the Indian Navy and the company has received an order from Mazagoan Dock (MDL) to supply 13,000 tonnes of heavy plates to build state-ofthe-art ships. This is the first time that MDL has placed an order for such a large consignment of steel plates from a domestic steel mill. With an annual production capacity of 1.5 million tonnes, along with cutting-edge technology sourced from Siemens Voest Alpine, the mill is the only one of its kind in the country capable of producing 5-m wide plates conforming to global standards. Until now, these products were largely imported but with these approvals, our country’s dependence on imports has reduced significantly, especially for the critical defence sectors.
RUSSIA OFFERS TO MAKE INDIA CHOPPER HUB Russian Helicopters, responsible for the design and manufacturing of all helicopters in Russia, has sweetened the deal for three Indian tenders worth $4 bn by offering local production. In a move without parallel in the Russia’s history, the Russian Helicopters announced it was ready to establish manufacturing of military helicopters in India with the right to re-export to third countries. Aviation experts say the arrangements to establish local production in India with the right to re-export could be a substantial argument in favour of the Russian helicopters involved in the tender. Three tenders involve supplying the Indian Air
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Force with light highlander choppers, cargo carriers, and assault helicopters in the deal worth more than $4 billion in total. Russian officials believe the odds of the Russian company winning the tenders is quite high, because their equipment meets the India’s requirements and India has the necessary infrastructure and trained personnel for operating Russian-made helicopters. The biggest tender is the one for light helicopters to be used in high-altitude mountain areas, for 197 helicopters worth $2 billion. The tenders were announced in 2008-2009 and the results are expected this year.
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DGCA CERTIFIES DHRUV SIMULATOR
The Dhruv helicopter simulator cockpit for the civil/conventional applications is now certified to Level D by India’s Directorate General Civil Aviation (DGCA). This was announced by officials at a joint venture between CAE and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL).
HELINA FOR LCH BY 2013
The helicopter simulator cockpit is combined with a CAE full-mission simulator used at HATSOFF. The simulator is somewhat platform agnostic, allowing cockpits from multiple helicopter versions to be used in the simulator. Additional HAL-built Dhruv and Eurocopter Dauphin cockpits are to be included in the training centre for the Indian Army and Air Force by 2012. The fullmission simulator makes use of a vibration platform, a common motion system, and visual display system, as well as four separate cockpit modules that can be used in the simulator.
The Dhruv helicopter would be armed with the DRDO developed HELINA missiles by 2013. HELINA which stands for Helicopter launched Nag, is the air to ground version of the Nag antiTank missile. Both HELINA and Dhruv have been designed and developed in India.The HELINA has been captive flight-tested, with a scheduled first firing for later this year. According to sources in the DRDO the weaponised version of the ALH Dhruv heli-
copter will be able to fire HELINA’s by 2013. HELINA would be offered by the DRDO for user trials in 2013. HELINA is an upgraded version of NAG missile developed by the DRDO as per the user requirements. The project will see upgraded propulsion that will enable HELINA to strike enemy armor at a distance of seven to eight kilometers.Nag is a third generation “fire-and-forget” anti -tank missile developed by DRDO which has a top attack capability.
DRDO TO BUILD BASE FOR NEW ARTILLERY GUN PROJECT The Defence Research and Development Organisation, has begun to lay the ground work to create a 155 mm Artillery Gun. According to a DRDO source, a project has been conceptualised towards development of a 155mm Artillery Gun to meet the objective of developing the expertise in this field. This is being done to create a technology base towards indigenous manufacture of artillery guns. The Armament Research & Development Establishment (ARDE), a DRDO lab, is leading the plan to create technology base to meet innovative requirements. Though some private sector firms have shown their interest in the project, it is probably too early to form alliances. Experts have said that the Ministry of Defence must bring together a public-private consortium in which the DRDO, the Indian Army, and the private sector have financial stakes. The Arjun Tank uses a 120 mm rifled gun developed by ARDE. In 1972, ARDE had developed the 105 mm Indian Field Gun (IFG) and later up-gunned the Indian Army’s 130 mm gun to 155 mm.
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May 2011 2010 June
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TECH SCAN
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BEAST OF KANDAHAR
A SILENT bird soars in the night skies of Afghanistan. Unseen and unheard by anyone but its operators, the machine silently captures images of extremely sensitive locations on the borders of the troubled country. All that the world has seen of the mysterious drone are a few grainy and blurry images around the skies of Kandahar. Online photos have also shown the mysterious bird at a General Atomics Aeronautical Systems’s hangar in Kandahar. The puzzling shape of the aircraft and the tailless flying wing design clearly indicate a stealth design, slightly reminiscent of the B2A Spirit, but it’s much smaller. And this is no bomber; it’s an unmanned aerial vehicle that has captured the imagination of the aviation world. So much so, that the aviation expert Bill Sweetman has dubbed it the ‘Beast of Kandahar’. But it’s not believed to carry any missiles, and the few photographs available don’t point to it being armed. Even as the online frenzy was building up the US Air Force confirmed the existence of the new craft, designated the RQ170 Sentinel. The ‘Beast of Kandahar’ is widely believed to be a product of Lockheed’s celebrated Skunk Works, home of the F-117 Nighthawk stealth fighter. According to the US Air Force, “The RQ-170 is a low observable unmanned aircraft system (UAS) being developed, tested and fielded by the Air Force. It will provide reconnaissance and surveillance in support of the joint forces commander.” But what exactly does the Beast do? It’s a mystery why the stealth Beast even patrols Kandahar, given all the other drones in the skies above. Sweetman says the RQ170 “could be an effective ‘stand-in’ jamming platform to support other aircraft”.
www.geopolitics.in
On the basis of the few publicly-available photographs of the RQ-170, Bill Sweetman has assessed that the UAV is equipped with an electro-optical/infrared sensor and possibly an Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar. He has also speculates that the two fairings over the UAV’s wings may house datalinks and that the belly and above wing fairings could be designed for modular payloads, allowing the UAV to be used for strike missions and electronic warfare. And what is the point of a stealthy jammer against an enemy like the Taliban
who don’t have radar and whose home-made bombs don’t rely so much on cellphone or radio signals for remote detonation? Sweetman also writes that the “Judging from the belly shape, the Beast could be configured for strike missions or to carry a high-power microwave source”. Who is the target? That is the million-dollar question, but given the United State’s apprehensions about their nuclear programmes, there has been considerable speculation that the drone is being used to spy on Pakistan and Iran. It was even reported that an RQ-170 orbited overhead in Abbottabad, Pakistan, as the SEALS launched an assault on the compound housing Osama bin Laden. The US military did not confirm these reports but could the microwave ability explain why certain parts of Abbottabad experienced power failure and the why the intruders slipped in virtually undetected?
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June 2011
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TECH SCAN SHARPER EYES IN THE SKY FOR INDIA
AFTER THE Akashdeep system, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is all set to develop a bigger and better aerostat system with additional payload. India’s new eye in the sky will carry out surveillance up to a radius of 450500 km and is being created according to the feedback from the Air Force and the Army during the Aero India 2011. Paramilitary forces have showed interest in the aerostat, which can be used for surveillance activities in the Maoist-infested areas. The aerostat system, to be developed by the Agra-based Aerial Delivery Research and Development Establishment (ADRDE), will be equipped with a wide range of payloads. It will be able to carry out surveillance during night and in low-visibility condition and also intercept a variety of communication. Defence experts say the deployment of aerostats at the borders along with the Airborne Early Warning & Control System (AEW&C) will redefine the battle surveillance capabilities as armed forces can neutralise attacks from adversaries well in advance. Defence experts say the deployment of aerostats at the borders along with the Airborne Early Warning & Control System (AEW&C) will redefine the battle surveillance capabilities as armed forces can neutralise attacks from adversaries well in advance.
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AND NOW…AN ARTIFICIAL SPYING BIRD MORE GOOD news for the intelligencegathering community, as an American company has developed the world’s first nano bird, which flies only to spy. AeroVironment has now succeeded in developing a remarkable smaller aircraft, the Nano Hummingbird. The company has pioneered the controlled precision hovering and fast-forward flight of a two-wing, flapping wing aircraft that carries its own energy source and relies only on its flapping wings for propulsion and control. Nano weighs just 19 grams, which is less than the weight of an AA battery. The developers have managed to fit all the systems required for flight, including batteries, motors, communications systems and even a video camera into this tiny package. The achievement was part of a contract awarded by the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) to design and build a flying prototype “hummingbird-like” aircraft for the Nano Air Vehicle (NAV) program.
US GETS DRDO’S DETECTION KIT
AFTER ITS successful debut in the insurgency-affected areas in India, it is now the turn of the US Department of Homeland Security to use technology developed by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) to detect explosives. The DRDO has signed a deal with American company Crowe and Company LLC to improve the Explosive Detection Kit (EDK) before introducing it in US Army and Homeland Security forces. Developed by DRDO’s Pune-based High Energy Material Research Lab (HEMRL), EDK can detect explosives of any combination based on TNT, dynamite or black powder. The technology is being widely used by the Bomb Detection Squads (BDS) of the Indian Army, paramilitary and police in Jammu and Kashmir, Assam, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
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PENTAGON’S NEW FLYING CAR
IT MIGHT sound like a prop out of a James Bond flick but if the Pentagon has its way flying cars could soon be rolling out of America’s bases shortly. The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency or DARPA, as it is popularly known, unveiled plans to create a shapeshifting, multipurpose car. The idea is to transport troops over harsh terrain and area infested with mines and improvised explosive devices. The DARPA’s Transformer TX concept leapfrogs over current vehicles like the Terrafugia Transition, which needs runways for takeoff and landing, and can’t operate in bad weather. DARPA’s solicitation for prototypes, calls for the all-terrain abilities of SUVs, a thousandpound capacity, and the ability to carry four troops or a stretcher and a medic. DARPA wants the ‘fully autonomous’ vehicles to have vertical takeoff and landing ( VTOL) capability, the ability to climb to 10,000 feet, with a range of 250 miles. And they want it tested in the air by 2015. It’s a tall order, but the biggest challenge could be the miniscule $55 million budget that the DARPA has allocated to the development and testing of prototypes.
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DEFBIZ
ST KINETICS SAY “NOT US”
W
E ARE appalled to read the article “Howitzer Misfires Again” (page 31) of the April 2011 issue of Geopolitics. The article states: “There is speculation in the Defence Ministry that Singapore Technology is behind the leak. But the ministry seems determined to go ahead with the deal. Sources associated with ST have denied these allegations and clarified that they have no interest in this deal, as being an FMS with US they always knew they had no chance. But they also pointed out that why any deal, which has US connection, never gets postponed and go through mostly of late through the FMS route, even when the alternate system is available at a competitive price.” We would like to categorically state that ST Kinetics has no knowledge and no interest in the said report and any allusion to that effect is incorrect. ST Kinetics’ bids for the various programmes pertaining to international tenders issued by the Ministry of Defence (MoD) are governed by regulations set out by the Indian government. In all bids and also in the ULH tender, the company followed the proper Indian Defence Procurement Procedure Manual process. ST Kinetics’ Pegasus was delivered to India two years ago, after being down-selected in an open tender, and is awaiting the Indian Army’s notification on the way forward after the project was put on hold. To date, we have yet to receive any official notification on this matter. To the best of our knowledge, the RFP on the ULH continues to be an operational tender as we have not been advised to the contrary. Customised to meet the Indian Army’s www.geopolitics.in
operational requirements, the Pegasus is a proven heli-portable, self-propelled,
exercises, including some held locally in India. When used in high-altitude frontiers, the gun’s built-in automation enhances operational effectiveness and reduces crew fatigue. Since the allegation against ST Kinetics began, the company has made numerous attempts to meet up with the officials to deal with the issue. In fact, ST Kinetics has offered full cooperation in the investigation, and even offered to open our books for checks by the Indian authorities. However, to date, we have not received any response to our attempts to resolve the matter. ST Kinetics has exercised a great deal for patience and belief in the Indian justice system. ST Kinetics has also taken a fully open and transparent approach throughout the entire controversy. It came as a complete surprise to learn about the insinuations that ST Kinetics could be involved in the reported leaked trial reports. Despite the issues surrounding the current situation, ST Kinetics is still committed and ready to support the Indian Army in its ULH and modernisation programmes. Jinny Claire Sim AVP/ Head, Corporate Communications Singapore Technologies Kinetics Limited DID: (65) 6660 7448 E mail: simjinny@stengg.com
powered light weight howitzer, with the option for retrofit to allow for immediate mobility. It scores consistently high accuracy for both direct and indirect hit with its unique balance of weight between lift and stability for firing, and has been deployed by our customers in numerous training
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Editor’s note: The specific mention of Singapore Technology was inadvertent. The correct inference was “sources in Singapore” that include all those interested in furthering Singapore’s interest in the Indian Defence Market. The error is regretted. June 2011
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DEFBIZ
TIME TO SCAN THE TENDERS
The security situation in J&K has become the excuse for fast tracking the purchase of scanners by the CBEC. It has the makings of a big-time scam. A special report.
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n a new twist to the continuing saga of single-tender operations that government agencies indulge in, the latest line of logic is “Required urgently for security reasons in J&K”. The recent global tender by Central Board of Excise and Customs (CBEC), Directorate of Logistics for purchase of High Energy X-Ray Cargo/Pallet Scanner (dual view) comes under this category. As per the tender (no 01/2011 dated 18.04.2011 open for participation till 18.05.2011), the procedure was crafted in a manner where most vendors, barring two, would be automatically ruled out on ‘technical grounds’. And the reason for fast-tracking the highly unusual purchase is the garb of national security and requirements in Kashmir! In a detailed letter to Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh and Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee, Member of Parliament, Adhi Shankar said: “It appears that www.geopolitics.in
Directorate of Logistics, CBEC have published very restrictive specifications of the operating software i.e. ‘windows’ only without any alternatives,
CLOSER SCRUTINY REQUIRED: The tender was crafted in a way that most vendors would be ruled out on ‘technical grounds’ whereas many manufacturers use other operating software.”
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It may relevant to mention here that in the recent past, the same CBEC had ordered 59 scanners, that are being used at airports and ports, where this restrictive clause was not inserted. So why the sudden change? Elaborating on this point, Shankar added: “In all the tenders of Government of India in the past, all alternate options are provided, so that all X-ray manufacturers can participate and there is open competition. Organisations like Ministry of Home Affairs, CISF, SSB Delhi Police, and Airports Authority of India etc. all allow open specifications of software and other conditions. Even the CBEC is fully aware about this, but has still not taken any action. For instance, the X-ray baggage scanner procurement tender from Sashastra Seema Bal, (no 7/SSB/Proc/XRay-B-Scanner/2010(1)) in its clause on operating system specifies “Window Vista June 2011
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NEW-FANGLED RUSE: The ‘security conditions in Kashmir' seem to be the latest ruse for single-tender specifications
Business or Linux”. Similarly CISF tender for 11 X-ray scanners of (Tender No. PR13013(10)/12/X-ray BIS/2010-2011/Proc/17 dated 07-09 March 2011) doesn’t even mention the operating system in its technical specification. In this tender due to ‘restrictive’ specifications, five-six manufacturers have not quoted and only two bids (Rapisan and Schneider) are received, out of which one is not compliant so it is virtually a tutored single-bid purchase.” It may be mentioned here that most of the other institutions mentioned by the MP use scanners all over the country including J&K. The fact of the matter is that the operating system doesn’t increase or decrease the X-ray scanner’s efficiency. But if the desired operating system is not available with the other manufacturers then the selection will be among the manufacturers with the desired operating system. What is most significant is that the operating system can’t be changed for any tender, whereas many of the mechanical and electronic specifications can be altered for any tender if economically feasible. The MP goes on to make a few other telling points: “In this purchase the department has not asked for any ‘technical demo’ of the X-ray machines. So it is only ‘paper comparison’ that the CBEC is depending upon. The bye-passing by CBEC of this clause is a security compromise, as any Tom, Dick and Harry can claim to comply with the terms and conditions of CBEC on paper. In all government or private purchase of X-ray machines, it is always a two-bid system and a ‘technical demo’ is a must.” Shankar goes on to specify that one of the www.geopolitics.in
two shortlisted vendors has failed “repeated ‘technical demos’ by Civil Aviation, MHA, Air India, Jet Airways etc. therefore removal of this mandatory clause raises serious doubts about transparency”. Finally, Shankar hits at collusion: “It is also important to note that two companies who have quoted for the above bid are Ms. Rapiscan & Ms. Schneider. The bidder Schneider is not an X-ray manufacturer. This company has not supplied a single Xray machine to any customer in India. The most astonishing fact is that the OEM Astrophysics (which is the principal company of Schneider) has not made a single X-ray baggage inspection system of the capacity specified by CBEC (1800x1800, dual view), they only make lower versions; this fact can be verified from the website of the company. This means that the Schneider/Astrophysics bid is invalid and should be rejected, which means that only one bidder is left, and that is Rapiscan.” It is important to note that any manufacturer just can’t launch an X-ray machine of any type or dimension in the market without getting an approval from AERB (Atomic Energy Regulatory Board) and the local regulatory authority of that country, which in India’s case is BCAS (Bureau of Civil Aviation Security, Ministry of Civil Aviation). These institutions have clearly mentioned that if any manufacturer has to install a machine at airports, they must get approval from three international regulatory authorities in different countries and also the X-ray baggage inspection system must have been in operation for more than one year. It seems CBEC has conveniently ignored such an aspect and there are no such
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pre-qualification criterion in the CBEC tender. In case CBEC had put such a pre-qualification criteria then Schneider/Astrophysics would not have been able to put in their bid. It seems the whole arrangement has been planned to avoid single-vendor situation and possibility of cartelisation cannot be ruled out. It also worth mentioning that the previous two tenders by CBEC for scanners of different specifications have not been purchased, even after two years of selection. Rapiscan was the L1 bidder in Gammabased mobile cargo scanner and is waiting for the order for last one-and-half years. Similarly, BEL has been waiting for its orders for the last two years for nine Mev-fixed cargo vehicle scanner for three ports. We need to ask a larger question, why we can’t have a single technical authority which sets the technical specification for purchase of these systems. Numerous government agencies are purchasing similar systems separately, if government puts down all the requirements together and purchases systems for different departments at once, then economically and administratively it will be very beneficial. It cannot be ruled out that same systems with same requirements are not being purchased separately. The industry insiders suggest that government order for next few years could be for a couple of thousand scanners including all sizes and specifications. It is time a holistic measure is taken to streamline the technical requirements and the adhocism in technical specifications should come to an end. And the big-time corruption associated with it. We need an Anna Hazare for the CBEC. June 2011
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SPECIALFEATURE
CAPABILITY VIA UPGRADES While India has a long shopping list of new fighter aircraft, it is simultaneously working on the upgrades of its existing fleet to prolong its service-life. SAURAV JHA outlines what the scenario could be FEARSOME FLANKER: The oldest Su-30 MKIs are now fit for a mid-life upgrade that will make them even more potent
E
VEN AS the MMRCA downselect continues to grab headlines there are a number of other measures being taken by the Indian Airforce (IAF) to augment its capabilities. One such area is platform upgrades that seeks to keep existing systems contemporary well into the 2020s. The IAF’s various www.geopolitics.in
upgrade programmes gain importance given the ongoing effort to increase squadron numbers as well as add new technology to the force without having to replace the current inventory all at once. It also presents a golden opportunity for a number of foreign as well as domestic vendors. Successfully completed upgrade
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programmes from the past include the Bison upgrade plan for 125 Mig-21 Bis and the 40 unit Mig-27 ML modification. The Bison upgrade in particular brought the newest Mig-21s in the IAF inventory to a near-fourth generation standard allowing them to operate independently of ground-controlled radar fire with precision guided munitions (PGM) and June 2011
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g SPECIALFEATURE engage in beyond visual range (BVR) combat. The success of these upgrade plans have given the IAF confidence to move ahead with other upgrade plans and the know-how to choose an optimal upgrade path. The most eye-catching programme presently being executed is the $964-million upgrade awarded to RAC MiG for 64 Mig-29s in the IAF’s order of battle. This is a rather deep modification of the existing IAF Mig29s and the package includes new engines, avionics as well as structural modifications to the airframe as evidenced by the first upgraded example sporting a ‘hump’ that is reported to be carrying new electronic warfare (EW) equipment. The upgrades can be summarised as follows: The current RD-33 engines on the twinengined aircraft are being substituted by RD-33 Series 3 engines which will be produced by HAL under the auspices of an earlier deal signed in 2005. The series 3 engine has a life of 2000 hours and sports the BARK-88 Full Authority Digital Engine Control (FADEC) and KSU-941UB Removed Control System (RCS).
KARAT-B whole recording system, BINS-SP navigation system with GPS, A-053 radioaltimeter, MS-2 voice warning system. Thales has been selected to provide the Identification Friend Foe (IFF) 1 Combined Interrogator Transponder (CIT) and Cryptographic National Secure Mode (NSM). Thales incidentally delivered the first IFF CIT to MiG in 2010, with the initial building block of a comprehensive secure identification capability delivered in mid-2011. The IFF CIT is being touted as a system that will allow IAF MiG-29s to be interoperable with western platforms by mitigating the risk of blue on blue engagements. This is on account of the fact that the CIT is compliant with the latest NATO and ICAO2 standards. Furthermore, Thales claims that the cryptographic NSM gives India its first-ever secure identification capability to protect its assets. A TOTEM 3000 Inertial Navigation and GPS also supplied by Thales. Installation of a refueling probe and capability to carry 1500 to 1800 litre drop tanks.
In place of the older Phazotron RLPK-29 a new slotted array Zhuk M2E is being put in place. Due to its superior processing capabilities the Zhuk M2E is able to identify faster and classify using an embedded digital library. UOMZ’s KOLS-13SM Forward Looking Infrared (FLIR), Sh-3UM-1 Helmet Mounted Integrated Targeting system are being added to the Mig-29s sensor suite. The new K-36 D ejection seat from Zvezda. BKTsO Digital signal processor, BTsVM90/BTsVM-486-2 (onboard computer), L-150NU (passive guiding missiles station), SVR video recording system, www.geopolitics.in
According to the original 2008 contract, the first five MiG-29s are to be upgraded and flight tested in Russia and the remaining aircraft will be fitted in India, with Russian technical assistance. Although a Mig-29 UPG underwent
THE MOST EYECATCHING PROGRAMME IS THE $ 964-MILLION UPGRADE AWARDED TO RAC MIG FOR MIG-29s
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flight tests earlier this year, the overall program seems two years behind schedule. The biggest upgrade proposal in terms of value is however the move to bring 51 Indian Mirage 2000 Hs to full Mirage 2000-5 Mk 2 standard. By all accounts this a rather expensive upgrade with a total contract value in the $2.2 billion range or roughly $40 million per aircraft. In fact the price tag has become a key stumbling block for this programme. For instance, even though prior to French President Sarkozy’s December 2010 visit one saw reports to the effect that a deal was June 2011
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g SPECIALFEATURE imminent, no contract was announced during that period. India and France, did however, sign an official agreement permitting the sharing of classified information, which was one of the last steps to required to move forward on the final contract for this programme. At the moment, it seems that India’s Defence Acquisitions Council has given an ‘in-principle’ approval for this plan to go forward. A senior IAF official said on condition of anonymity that negotiations have begun between the Paris-based Dassault Aviation and New Delhi for upgrading the IAF’s fleet of Mirage 2000 aircraft. “While the formal contract has yet to be signed, the two sides have started negotiations for the MICA multi-mission air-to-air missile, the only missile in the world with two interoperable seekers (active radar and infrared imaging) to cover close-in dogfights and BVR (beyond visual range) for the Mirage upgrade.” In March, by when the deal was expected to have been signed, IAF chief PV Naik had said that differences over price and legal issues had blocked progress, but since then, “negotiations have been concluded and the report has been submitted to the Defence Ministry”, the official cited earlier said. Be that as it may the aim behind upgradation is to give the aircraft, inducted into the IAF in 1985-88, another 20-25 years of service life. According to industry sources, while the cost of upgrading around 50 aircraft is already on the higher side, it is expected to go up by another $700 million if one considers the cost of procuring, integrating and clearing the armament of the upgraded aircraft. In any case, the request for proposal (RFP) for the Mirage 2000 upgrade was issued to French original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) like Dassault, Thales and others in 2008 with Dassault being the lead contractor for this programme. The upgrade plan includes a new RDY-3 radar with greater airair and air-ground capability, a new all-digital cockpit, and superior electronic warfare systems. These will be tied in by a joint tactical information data link system and Topowl-F helmet-mounted sights (HMS) allowing the aircraft to operate off-boresight heat-seeking missiles. These upgrades will allow the aircraft to be equipped with the MICA BVR family of radio-frequency (RF) and infrared (IR)- guided weapons. There also seems to be an offer from SAGEM to integrate the AASM family of weapons onto the upgraded aircraft. There is of course a powerful view in certain influential quarters that the upgrade of Mirage should be cancelled altogether in favour of additional purchases of newer www.geopolitics.in
CREDIBLE DETERRENT: Upgrades will ensure that Mirage 2000 remains India’s premier nuclear delivery platform for the foreseeable future
A DEEPER UPGRADE PROPOSAL FOR IAF JAGUARS ALSO SEEMS TO BE IN THE WORKS aircraft under the MMRCA tender with a view to replacing the Mirages in due course. A win for Dassault in the MMRCA tender may actually see something more concrete on this
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front, with an offer to replace the existing Mirages with Rafales, so goes the logic. Even as the status of the Mirage 2000 upgrade remains unclear, the IAF seems to have met success with the 2008, $600 million HAL-led upgrade to bring 69 Jaguars to Display Attack Ranging Inertial Navigation -3 (Darin-3) standard. Darin-3 Jaguars can now navigate themselves to target with unprecedented precision and accuracy. The Inertial Nav-Attack System Integration Organisation (IIO), a multiple agency unit set up by the Defence Research Development Organisation (DRDO), IAF and HAL developed the first generation of Darin systems (Darin-1) in the1980s. A deeper upgrade proposal for IAF Jaguars also seems to be in the works and this is June 2011
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apparently executed by HAL in collaboration with domestic, European and Israeli vendors. Various reports suggest that the following items may be on the upgrade list:
An integrated defensive aids suite (IDAS) developed by DARE in collaboration with a European or Israeli partner.
A new Sextant MFD 66 active matrix liquid crystal display to substitute the current projected map display.
UPGRADES ARE A CLEVER WAY TO KEEP SYSTEMS CONTEMPORARY WHILE NOT BREAKING THE BANK
A new video-based Head Up Display (HUD) camera and a multi-channel digital video colour recorder which will allow the HUD, moving map display and other imagery to be recorded simultaneously. A new Open Systems Architecture Mission Computer (OSAMC) system A new multimode radar (possibly Elta’s EL/M-2052) and a new airborne self-protection jammer (SPJ) www.geopolitics.in
The weight changes due to the avionics upgrades (both current and ongoing) and the IAF’s quest to make the Jaguar fly ‘hot
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and high’ has made it look for replacements to the Rolls-Royce Adour Mk-811 that currently powers the aircraft. When the request for qualifications first came out in 2009, the two companies making a bid for some 280 turbofans were Rolls-Royce and Honeywell Aerospace. Honeywell is offering its F125IN, a 43.8kN thrust afterburning turbofan, while Rolls-Royce has proposed its Adour Mk-821 turbofan which shares a lot of commonality with the Adour Mk-951 that powers the Hawk trainers in the IAF. However, the engine replacement plan for the Jaguars seems to have run into some difficulties on account of Rolls-Royce pulling out of the competitive vendor in February 2011 even as the RFP was issued same month, leaving Honeywell as the only contender and the IAF with a single vendor situation. Rolls-Royce’s pullback is apparently due to the IAF’s refusal to accept the Adour Mk-821 as a truly new piece of technology given that it’s based on an engine family started many decades ago. Newer aircraft in the IAF inventory like the much-feared Su-30 MKI are also in line for upgrades. The oldest aircraft are now ripe for a mid-life upgrade (MLU) that will see them make even more potent in the region. The cornerstone of the upgrade will see the MKIs N011M Bars Passive Electronically Scanned Array (PESA) replaced by the Russian Phazotron ZhukAE active, electronically scanned array (AESA) radars. The Zhuk-AE, which operates in the X-band, can track 30 aerial targets in the track-while-scan mode and engage six targets simultaneously in attack mode. The new radar also has better processing capabilities and requires less maintenance. Besides a radar upgrade, we may also see the inclusion of newer electronic warfare equipment and new engines of higher thrust capability. While we have focused on the teeth of the IAF in this piece, readers would note that the IAF is also looking at its support fleet like the An-32, IL-76 and the Mi-17 helicopters. Indeed upgrades are often a clever way to keep systems contemporary while not breaking the bank as it were. But they must be done cleverly and the upgrade goals should not be too ambitious since ultimately we are dealing with old equipment. Hopefully India’s conventional force modernisation will be able to notch successes in this sphere just as the Israelis have done over the years. (The author is a strategic analyst and author of The Upside Down Book Of Nuclear Power) June 2011
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DEVASTATING FIREPOWER: The Smerch weapon system can rain a volley of deadly munitions on the enemy
SMERCH IN THE
DOCK
The Comptroller and Auditor General has pointed out serious lapses in the acquisition and ability of what is said to be India’s most potent rocket launcher in its artillery system, but the Army is not convinced. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA reports
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ulti- barrel Rocket Launchers(MBRL) are one of the most potent, devastating and manoeuvrable artillery systems. They have capability to dismantle the enemy’s battle formation, topple their defence and pave way for the friendly force. They form an important part of artillery. In its last report, the Comptroller and Audiwww.geopolitics.in
tor General (CAG) of India has raised some important and serious questions over our most potent MBRL system, Russian-made Smerch. The report (number 12 of 20102011-defence services) alleges, “The import of defective SMERCH MBRLS at the cost of `2633 crore, delay in purchase of buyer furnished equipment and formulation of War Establishment had resulted in non operationalisation of the system.”
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Smerch is considered to be one of the best rocket systems in the world. It is also one of the most powerful and lethal systems. With 300 mm rocket of approximate range of 90 km it can deliver 243 kg of TNT on any given point. This makes it one of the most befitting systems for deep strike behind enemy line with lethality to pulverise enemy’s defensive and offensive formation. Lt Gen BS Pawar, retired artillery officer, June 2011
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MBRL RULES THE ROOST
said, “Smerch provides a quantum jump to our artillery range and lethality. It is an area weapon which pulverises the enemy formation deep within its territory. It has provided a huge tactical flexibility to the Indian Army. It is the best weapons system in its class.” He further said that none of our adversaries have a comparable weapon system. Chinese A100 is no match to Smerch. Chinese might have copied the Russian systems or they might have received technology from Russia, but no Chinese product is as good as the original. Gen Pawar says, “These are shoot and scoot systems. You fire upon your enemy and before counter bombardment comes you move to another target or to a safe place. The psychological impact of the amount of TNT that falls on the other end is massive.” After the Kargil war, it was felt by the Indian Army that it needed a long range rocket system which could fit between the 155 mm Howitzer and Prithvi ballistic missiles. The gap between the ranges of these two systems is huge. 155 mm 52 caliber Howitzer has maximum range of 40 km, whereas Prithvi 1 has a range of 150 km. It was felt that a rocket system which can fill this gap will provide operational and tactical flexibility to Indian artillery. To achieve this objective, India signed its first contract with Russia in December 2005 for 42 guns to constitute three regiments. Another contract was signed later in March 2007 for supply of systems. The delivery for both the contracts was finished in May 2009. But the CAG report found out www.geopolitics.in
MBRL are truck-mounted-unguided rocket artillery systems. They are less accurate than any guided rocket system. These are field weapons for attacking any defined area at a certain distance (within range) by launching rockets at a very high rate of fire. When a large number of rockets fall in a very short duration, the cumulative impact of the rockets is huge on any force formation. The devastation is caused by the high amount of TNT in a very small area. The pulverising capability of MBRLs has made them indispensable for all major armies of the world. They form an integral part of strike formation. Like most of the modern weapons systems, MBRLs also had their origin in the Second World War. Russians developed the first MBRL in the late 30s and deployed against Germany in the Eastern Europe theatre. The BM-13 Katyushas was the first MBRL of the world. The system was a cheap artillery system, which could drop large quantity of explosive in short time at any location. This was a tailor- made solution for the east European plains. Soon Germans also deployed their own Neberwelfers. Since then land warfare has undergone dramatic change. The rocket systems of today have the reach of the artillery system of the past. Indian Army has been operating these systems since long. India currently is operating three different systems, namely, BM 21 Grad rocket system — 122mm rocket with a range of 20 km; Pinaka-214mm with a range of 40 km and Smerch - 300mm with a range of 90 km. India is currently upgrading its Grad 21 to 30 km range for better penetration power. India has around 150 Grad 21. Along with BM 21 India also has Pinaka system, which is an indigenous system developed by the DRDO. It is considered the cheapest system in its class. Its range is of 40 km and rate of fire of 72 rockets in 44 seconds by a battery of six launchers which could be a game changer in battlefield. This will deliver 7 tonnes of explosive, which will neutralise and area of 1000 m into 800 m. In 1986 the Ministry of Defence sanctioned the development of this system. After 14 years of development and four years after first test at Chandipur in 1995, it was used in Kargil to assess its operational worth and it came out with flying colours. Work is on for extending range of Pinaka which can reach up to 50 km.
that the systems, during trials conducted by Army in November 2008, were not performing optimally and could not be fully operationalised.
SMERCH IS CONSIDERED ONE OF THE BEST ROCKET SYSTEMS IN THE WORLD The CAG report raises two main questions regarding the procurement of systems and their spares and operational readiness. It says, “Seven out of thirteen SOCRIG (Self orienting Coarse Roll Indica ting Gyroscopic System is provided in the LV for automatic laying and fire control. It is critical for
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accuracy of weapon system) failed completely during exploitation of sub-systems. As one sub-system costs `50 lakh and is critical for the accuracy of the system, the matter was taken up with the supplier who suggested carrying out the product improvement by installing a cooling system at the cost of buyer. “One of the possible reasons for the failure of SOCRIG was attributed to high temperature prevailing in Indian field conditions which suggested that despite the apprehensions expressed during trial evaluation the system was not tested at the temperatures stipulated in the contract. “Eleven DTEs (Data Transmission Equipment) each costing `25 lakh reported complete/partial failures due to defect in the internal component. The equipment is critical for the reliability of the system since complete automation depends on it. The Ministry stated in November 2009 that the matter had been taken up with the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) who had agreed to carry out modifications in the manufacturing process and also carry out June 2011
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COLD STATS Smerch- Specification Calibre Weight of rocket projectile Range of fire: - max - min Number of launching tubes Salvo time Loader Vehicle loading time Time to prepare for action, not more than Time to evacuate position after launch Launcher Vehicle crew Ideal Operating Conditions Ground temperature range for the Rocket Projectile Ground temperature range for the Launcher Vehicle Short-term stay (up to 6hr) temperature range Ground wind Air relative humidity at +35°C Rainfall (max) Dust content in the ground air Atmospheric reduced pressure above sea level
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300 mm 800-815 kg 90 km 20 km 12 38 seconds 20 minutes 3 min -1 min 3 men
-50-+50 °C -40-+50 °C RPs -60-+60 °C up to 20 m/s up to 98 % 2.7 mm/min up to 2 g/m3 up to 3000 m
SCOURGE OF THE BATTLEFIELD: The rocket systems of today have the reach of the artillery systems of the past modifications in the sub system supplied. The Army Technical Board had taken up a project with IIT, Delhi to develop an alternative system so that it can be used in case of failure in future.” In conclusion, the report says, “The Smerch Weapon System procured at a cost of `2633 crore could not be fully operationalised due to defects in various systems, delay in buying the logistics support equipment and formulation of War Establishment. The absence of suitable material handling equipment led to damage of four rockets and resultant loss of `2.36 crore.” When asked about the CAG report, a senior Army official in Headquarters said on condition of anonymity: “The Smerch are fully operational and there is no truth in the allegation that they are not operational.” He further said: “The CAG report is based on the audit conducted during
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PSYCHOLOGICAL IMPACT OF THE AMOUNT OF TNT THAT FALLS ON THE OTHER END IS MASSIVE 2008 and when you procure such complicated systems it takes time to adjust to the system. There were some problem related with the performance and failure of few subsystem but those were temporary issues and have been resolved long back.” What is the truth will never come out in totality. But what is important is that the scandals pertaining to India’s defence system do not seem to end. June 2011
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THE BEGINNING of an ambitious Ministry of Defence (MoD) project to bring connectivity to the SinoIndian border. The long-term perspective plan provides for over `57,000 crore worth of road building in the next decade. Over the last 51 years, BRO has built a 48,300-km network of border roads in India, 36
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MOST WANTED FUGITIVES
LIST THAT was given to Pakistan in March 2011 had bloopers that was a “genuine mistake” and “human error”. Home Minister P Chidambaram said the inclusion of some names in the list was a “genuine oversight” by the Mumbai Police and also a “lapse” on the part of the Intelligence Bureau (IB) in not reflecting the information received by it while preparing the list in March 2011. While taking responsibility for the error, Mr. Chidambaram said that it was not such a “monumental mistake” of “calamitous consequences”.
1.25
NUMBERSGAME km of major bridges, and 19 airfields. The 39 roads would be completed by 2013. About 25 per cent of the BRO current annual budget of `5,400 crore was earmarked for Sino-Indian border roads. Meanwhile, six of the 27 roads are facing schedule slippages.
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CRORE INFRASTRUCTURE MODERNISATION PROJECT
AT THE Goa Shipyard Limited (GSL) to facilitate the building of new generation warships was commissioned by Defence Minister A.K. Antony in late May. “Setting the ball rolling for creation of new generation vessels, the project will boost the shiplift facility and piers, two repair berths and transfer area at the premier defence shipyard,” a Defence Ministry release said. The shiplift system at GSL will be the first of its kind in defence shipyards in the country. The commissioning of the shiplift facility will coincided with the launching of the third in the series of naval offshore patrol vessels indigenously designed and being built by GSL for the Indian Navy. The four-phased modernisation plan, with a budget of `800 crore, aims at creating capacity in the shipyard for the production of cutting-edge technology warships.
CRORE IS THE COST OF THE SECOND PHASE OF SEA BIRD NAVAL BASE OPERATIONS
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KG WARHEAD CARRYING MISILE ASTRA WAS SUCCESSFULLY test fired several times in May. The indigenously developed Astra — beyond-visual-range air-toair missile — from the Integrated Test Range at Chandipur. The missile is envisaged to intercept and destroy enemy aircraft at supersonic speeds in the head-on mode at a range of 80 km and in tail-chase mode at 20 km. Before the sophisticated anti-aircraft missile would be integrated with fighter aircraft like Su-30 MKI, MiG29 and Light Combat Aircraft Tejas, it would undergo some rigorous and flawless tests both from ground and from fighter jets. Astra, which uses solid propellant, can carry a conventional warhead of 15 kg. It is the smallest of the missiles developed by the DRDO in terms of size and weight. DRDO officials said it was more advanced than the similar class of missiles of the US, Russia and France. It is 3.8-metre long and has a diameter of 178 mm with an overall launch weight of 160 kg. The missile could be launched from different altitudes — it can cover 110 km when launched from an altitude of 15 km.
AT KARWAR, Karnataka. The spend will be five times what was spent in the first phase. The expansion of the naval base will turn Karwar, part of Uttara Kannada district into the largest defence zone, not only in India, but also in Asia, thereby increasing the country’s maritime power multi-fold. Work for the second phase of the base has already begun. The base is one of the most strategic naval bases in the world. In the coming days, its importance to the country’s maritime defence will improve further. The second phase will get additional jetties, dockyards, airports, and transit systems.
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TRAINING AIRCRAFT WILL BE ADDED
TO THE fleet at the National Defence Academy before the year end. This will double the fleet strength. The five new ‘Super Dimona’ aircraft are expected in the NDA in next four or five months. This will help provide better training to Air Force cadets. The academy is also looking forward to improve infrastructure for naval training, which will be made possible by procuring an ‘advanced training vessel’. The vessel will give the cadets a hands-on experience in controlling ships and understanding their technicalities. 325 cadets took part in the passing-out parade (POP) of the 120th course held on May 31. These include 21 foreign cadets from friendly countries (one from Bhutan, three from Kazakhstan, four from Afghanistan, nine from Tajikistan and four from Maldives). The parade was reviewed by Admiral Nirmal Verma, Chief of the Naval Staff (CNS). Notably, Admiral Verma is an alumnus of NDA’s 35th course. The academy has a strength of 2,014 cadets of which 87 are from friendly countries. It is for the first time that the total strength of cadets in the academy has gone above 2000.
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592
-METRE-LONG BRIDGE, ONLY THE THIRD OF ITS KIND
IN INDIA after Hoogly and Mumbai bridges over the river Ravi connecting Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir, was launched late May by UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi. The bridge is of immense strategic importance as it is the first such bridge in northern India. The people of Jammu and Kashmir will get an alternative route besides the national highway to connect with Kashmir.
5,000
KMS, BEFORE IT CAN ENTER THE INDIAN AIR SPACE
INDIA WOULD be able to shoot down any enemy missile. Work has begun on a network of air-defence systems. The Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) has already developed a missile that can intercept an incoming aerial threat 2,000 kms away under the Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) System and is now working on the second phase. Last July, DRDO successfully tested the Phase-I of the indigenously developed interceptor missile from the Integrated Test Range (ITR) at Wheeler Island off Orissa coast. According to DRDO chief V K Saraswat the 5,000 kms interceptor missile is targeted to be ready by 2016. India is also developing the Long Range Tracking Radar (LRTR) for the BMD systems. While the radars used for the Phase-I experiments were built with equal partnership from Israel, the Phase-II will have 80 per cent indigenous component.
14
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IS THE NUMBER OF HONORARY DOCTORATES
AWARDED TO former Supreme Commander and President Dr A P J Kalam, the latest by Sydney University in May. “Australia has got tremendous reserves of thorium, a future material for replacing uranium,” Kalam said at the ceremony. “It is cost-effective and (produces) less radiation … India and Australia can work together in building a thoriumbased nuclear reactor for the world market.”
HOURS OF ENDURANCE
AND ALTITUDE ceiling of 8000 metres, Rustom 1 being developed by the Aeronautical Developm e n t Establishment (ADE), a DRDO lab engaged in pioneering R&D work in the field of aeronautics, was successfully flown recently. The flight was a precursor to one with payloads as required by the Services. Rustom 1 has
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been achieved by converting a manned aircraft into a UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) by removing pilot seat and making required electrical, mechanical and aerodynamic modifications. With the successful accurate flying of Rustom 1, ADE is geared up for integration of payloads with the aircraft within next three months, to demonstrate performance of payloads and necessary secure data-link to the users.
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THINKERS IN THE INDIAN ARMY: A PERSPECTIVE The Indian Army (like most other conventional world armies) has traditionally preferred conformists over thinkers; especially over officers who are as articulate as they are out-of-the-box thinkers. To continue our growth as an Army of great professional merit, we need to make a break with the past and encourage the development and growth of thinkers as an overriding Army priority right from induction through retirement, argues RAJ MEHTA www.geopolitics.in
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HE VISIONARY Gen JFC Fuller, along with the iconic theorist Capt BH Liddell Hart is credited with the enunciation of the Blitzkrieg theory which was premised on an unholy nexus between tanks and fighter aircraft for waging lightning war. Panned by the conservative British military establishment, the theory was brilliantly utilised by the Germans to “rape” France, Belgium and the Low Countries in World War II. In 1932, Fuller, a cerebral and astute thinker, wrote a savage indictment of British Generalship titled Generalship: It’s Diseases and Their Cure: A Study of the Personal Factor in Command. He stated that British generalship was very pedestrian; emphasising the need for creative intelligence. “In war, as in peace, individuality is far more important than uniformity; personality than congruity, and originality than conventionality…”, he wrote. He was put on the retired list a year later. Unsurprisingly, for General Montgomery-Massingberd, an Army Chief of that period, Fuller’s criticism represented a “lack of loyalty” which he thought was far more important quality to possess than “brains”… This opening statement is important because it sets the issue of thinking — surely a spin off from “brains” — into sharp focus. That orthodoxy, mindsets, fierce resistance to change and reinforcement of existing stereotypes in the British Army were vastly preferred over intellectual capacity is once again reinforced by Corelli Barnett, the erudite British author who savaged British Generalship in World War II in The Desert Generals, scathingly stating that, because of their obduracy and refusal to think through; to adapt; the British Army in World War II was well prepared — to fight and win the last war. The US Army also had its problems in World War II, with Gen George Patton representing the Reformist elements and Gen Eisenhower its Conformist elements. Post the war, western nations as a whole concluded that Pattons were needed in battle but it was the Eisenhowers that would be more suited to work and operate in a democratic system, where conforming was so important. The bureaucracies in the west also embodied the feeling that unquestioning compliance was any day preferable to thinking militaries and this was the inheritance that the British left with our Indian polity and bureaucracy, too. Judging from the remarks of the longserving US Secretary of Defense, Robert Gates — a cerebral politician known for his candour and readiness to accept constructive criticism — the American attribute of candid public introspection has been given a
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“IT IS UNREASONABLE TO EXPECT THAT AN OFFICER WHO SPENDS 25 YEARS CONFORMING TO INSTITUTIONAL EXPECTATIONS WILL EMERGE AS AN INNOVATOR IN HIS LATE FORTIES… US GENERALSHIP SUFFERS FROM CONFORMITY, LACK OF VISION, AND LACK OF CREATIVITY…THE INTELLECTUAL AND MORAL FAILURES COMMON TO AMERICA’S GENERAL OFFICER CORPS IN VIETNAM AND IRAQ CONSTITUTE A CRISIS IN AMERICAN GENERALSHIP…” —PAUL YINGLING Serving US Army Colonel Paul Yingling quoted et al from his article, “A failure in generalship” in Armed Forces Journal. April 27, 2007. fillip by him. In his address to passing out graduates of the US Military Academy at West Point on February 25, 2011, Gates forthrightly brought out one of his main worries: “How the US Army can break up the institutional concrete, its bureaucratic rigidity in its assignments and promotion processes, in order to retain, challenge, and inspire its best, brightest, and most-battled tested young officers to lead the service in the future?” This, at a time when the Army needs “entrepreneurial leaders with a broad perspective…a versatility and adaptability never before required… when faced with an era of full-spectrum conflict”. America, Gates opined, can succeed only with leaders who are full-spectrum in their thinking. Gates is on record saying that he has been impressed by the way the Army’s professional journals allow some of its brightest and most innovative officers to critique — sometimes bluntly — the way the service does business; to include judgments about senior leadership, both military and civilian. He believes that is a sign of institutional vitality and health and strength. He also suggests that “senior officers should embrace such dissent as healthy dialogue and protect and advance those considerably more junior who are taking on that mantle”. Any student of military history across the continuum of war fighting, nationality and time will cheerfully accept that the British/US Armies problems with “thinking” soldiers are universal in their construct.
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“Born in battle” in 1947, therefore vastly experienced, committed and thoroughly professional, the huge, “forever in combat”, Indian Army is an unabashed, even proud bastion of conformist attitudes and outlook which it continues to passionately preach and practice. Many serving officers would consider such an attitude an ingrained strength of the Army when push comes to shove, as was the case at Kargil. There is also a legitimate worry that though the American military system leads the world in thinking and theorising about war fighting, they almost always fall short when it comes to delivery; when push comes to shove. Practitioners of the art of war would say that this is a deficiency related to sociological issues that underwrite war fighting and have little to do with focused “critical” thinking. The harsh reality is that the rapidly changing face of war and its linkages with emerging media and technology demand that a change in outlook in the Indian Army towards thinking soldiers be urgently institutionalised. This is unlikely to happen in a hurry as management of change takes time. With a historical slant towards lower order learning (learning by rote) over higher order, Socratic thinking, the Indian Army continues to look for steely and unquestioning compliance to orders from its real combat strength; its junior leadership (Colonels and below). We determinedly continue teaching our young both in colleges and in the military academies/training establishments “what to think”; June 2011
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BH Liddel Hart
Montgomery-Massingberd
JFC Fuller
Carl Von Clausewitz
SCHOLAR SOLDIERS: Resourceful commanders have been at the forefront of military innovation down the ages certainly not “how to think”. Students and cadets/officers are taught to submit to faculty formulations inelegantly termed as “Pinks” (these are traditionally printed on pink paper), in the bargain, answering the faculty’s “Guess what I’m thinking?” by offering the “correct” answer. In other words, conforming is rewarded, as much as disagreement shunned, leading to a behaviour pattern that continues for life. This institutional “ordersfrom-above-and-implicit-obedience-frombelow” expectation is rarely challenged as the mental constructs needed to challenge it are neither formally taught nor appreciated. Is it then surprising that, in the Army, we produce more conformists than we produce mavericks; intrepid, bold, unconventional, open to inquisition out-of-the-box thinkers who, as long as they prosper, reach great intellectual heights, influencing all those in their zone of influence? Little effort is thus made to actually involve learner officers in analytical thinking. By and large, “out-of-the-box” thinking is viewed with skepticism and healthy disregard across senior ranks. As keen observers wryly point out, the “thinkers” bloom more often than not after they retire (Brig Gurmeet Kanwal is one obvious exception; he started off while still in the military mainstream; so are Cols Harjeet Singh, Kamal Kapoor and Manuhar Singh). One vibrant example of retired thinkers is of young Maj Anit Mukherji, a doctoral fellow at the Johns Hopkins University, USA, who writes incisively on defence reform and civilmilitary relationships in the Indian context. Those in service who do talk about such thinking — the numbers are increasing, albeit slowly — do so self-consciously and without institutional support from the Indian Army’s Training Command (ARTRAC). Consequently, as on date, we do not have critical thinking in www.geopolitics.in
OUR JUNIOR LEADERS WERE SIMPLY WORLDCLASS BY WAY OF COMMITMENT AND SELFLESS SACRIFICE our training curriculum and continue following vintage training and education patterns with some emerging mavericks occasionally “queering” the pitch; firebrand Indian Army equivalents of much-lauded thinkers such as US Army Gen Petraeus and his “thinking boys”, Brig McMaster, Lt Col Nagl (Retd), Col Kilcullen (Retd) and Col Yingling; officers who are setting military minds on fire worldwide with out-of-the-box thinking on war fighting and technology and its best application. Objective readers not wishing to get swayed by mere rhetoric will want confirmation that the Indian Army does not quite take thinking or thinking soldiers too seriously. Considering that we have combated insurgency for the last 50 years and terrorism for the last 20, it would be fair to presume that we have national war fighting doctrines as also publications that serve to train and educate soldiers on ground conduct of these doctrines. Given that emerging new media allows near real-time lessons to be learnt from skirmishes, battles and campaigns, it should be fair to presume that we would have mastered this technology. A thinking man would also ask whether the Army in particular has a war fighting doctrine that is acceptable as much
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to the political authority and the other Services as it is to the soldiers on the ground; along with its supporting logistics doctrine; manoeuvre warfare; fire support; combat engineering support, air/naval support doctrines. He would question further whether the other two Services are any better off. No one will contest the fact that all this intellectually oriented work demands prolonged and focussed institutional involvement by uniformed thinkers, aided by peers of connected disciplines (not necessarily from the armed forces), such as defence and R&D scientists, think tanks, social scientists, economists, psychologists, media, IT professionals and academicians. The sad and upsetting truth is that we do not have any of these doctrines as completed, fully networked documents. What exists is in bits and pieces. Institutionally, we must accept that in the Army, the ARTRAC, supposed to be the repository of all training in the Army and with the sister services, has sheaves of part cleared or held up drafts; work in progress, if you please. In terms of net deliverables, this critical institution, modelled after the US Army’s Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC) started off with some great commanders but today has little of its US counterpart’s dynamism, its well-crafted intellectual end products or its credibility. If one thought that the Army’s closet thinkers across rank (they are in fair number out there) must be staffing ARTRAC or that its entry requirements are as stringent as those for entering the Military Operations/Perspective Planning Directorates, perish the thought. Blame can indeed be laid squarely at the doorstep of the MoD as well as the Centre for near absence of an overarching strategic culture. We also do not have educated, “in-theJune 2011
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INVENTIVE INDIAN WARRIORS Courtesy: www.allpakistaninews.com
know” political appointees of the calibre of US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates; people who can sense voids in the intellectual capacity as well as development of intellectual capital in the armed forces; people who can ensure that these voids are made up by funding, oversight, progressive selection policies or prescient nurturing of a new generation of officers who need to think smart in order to act smart under fire. Let us view Indian Army thinkers from yet another perspective: displayed performance. In his well-researched book on great Indian soldiers, Leadership in the Indian Army: Biographies of Twelve Soldiers, the author, Maj Gen VK Singh, lists only four: Lt Gen SPP Thorat, Lt Gen PS Bhagat, Lt Gen SK Sinha and Lt Gen Hanut Singh who, in this writer’s understanding, qualify as quality thinkers in that they made stellar contributions to Indian Army military thought; all with a touch of the irreverent maverick in them. Since the author has covered a span of over 50 years in selecting his dozen top soldiers, it can be said that though most (including Field Marshal Sam Manekshaw) qualify for brilliance in pure soldiering terms — bravery, charisma, combat leadership and, in Sam’s case, leading the Army to stunning success, thinking skills have not been listed as a “given” in this list. Hark back to delivered performance in the 1947-48 and 1965 Indo-Pak Wars and you find that these attrition-led wars did not challenge our thinkers too much. The 1962 Sino-Indian War, of course, displayed huge voids in Indian military thinking and abysmal performances by the Army brass. Gen SPP Thorat, the lone thinking voice who had much to say, was, unfortunately cold-shouldered. Post the 1971 Indo-Pak War; a role-model war for politicomilitary synergy and, in one instance, uncharacteristically bold operational level execution when the maverick Lt Gen Sagat Singh assisted by an out-of-the-box Group Captain Chandan Singh, crossed the yawning Meghna River using a helicopter bridge, our subsequent war in Kargil in 1999 and later the Operation Parakram stand-off with Pakistan recorded resolute leadership as a pronounced Indian Army strength more than it did critical thinking. What did get emphasised was that our junior leaders were simply world class in commitment, courage and dogged combat skills. As Brig PK Mallick, a wired-up, serving, soon-to-be-promoted Indian Army Signals officer put down succinctly in a recent article, “The Army’s officer education system does not produce the leader competency of intellectual sophistication necessary to operate at the strategic level. Many officers never progress or develop their intellect beyond
SHIVAJI
CHANAKYA
TIPU SULTAN
IT IS not as if India at the macro level or the Indian Army has not had top-rated military thinkers through the ages. Kautilya has left behind in Arthasastra an ancient 3rd century BC Indian treatise on statecraft, economic policy and military strategy, a classic that matches Sun Tzu’s Art of War. Shivaji (1642-1680) is renowned for bringing in brilliant military organization, logistics support; inter-service synergy (Army-Navy) and the credo of bold commando actions that could become turning/tipping points in war. Tipu Sultan (1782-1799) was respected by the British for his innovative use of rocketry as well as for his leadership. In her short life, Laxmi Bai, the Rani of Jhansi, impressed the opposing British forces in 1857-1858 with her military acumen and leadership skills as much as she did with her bravery. What has obstructed Indian thinking is the fallout of the 1835 speech in the British Parliament by Lord Macaulay, suggesting the need to dismantle India’s ancient culture, education system and self-esteem by imposing western value systems spearheaded by teaching Indians English. The British went a step further, promoting the Mai Baap culture; a servile, unquestioning acceptance of orders from above; certainly not the best breeding ground for thinkers. The Macaulay effect ensured that the British Army hierarchy of Indian officers was not exposed to higher level strategic and operational levels of war. It is thus not a matter of surprise that in the opening years, the Indian Army had great leaders of men but very few thinkers who could think outof-the-box or guide the country’s political leadership on the strategic formulation of Ends, Ways and Means which are the essence of national and military strategy. Post the 1965 Indo-Pak War, there was a turnaround of sorts. Leading the change was the charismatic Army Chief, Gen Sundarji, an infantry scholar-soldier who revelled in tank warfare. He pioneered operational guidelines for conduct of operational level mechanised warfare; he also created the Mechanized Infantry Corps. Sundarji was in the core team that created Indian nuclear policy along with Admiral Tahiliani, K Subrahmanyam and others. Sundarji shaped modern Indian Army thinking and was amongst the few who clearly saw what superior air power and technology would do in war. Just like US Army Gen Petraeus years later, Sundarji encouraged his subordinates to think big. His “Sundarji boys”, amongst them, Gens VR Raghavan, Vinod Saighal, Shammi Mehta, Vijay Oberoi, Arjun Ray, KM Bhimaya and Sardeshpande have all made substantial contributions to our military thinking. Also known for his cerebral acumen, Gen Padmanabhan has been lauded for his contribution in blunting the Kashmir insurgency. An artillery officer, the General Officer promoted modern Electronic Intelligence (ELINT) and intelligence operations. During his tenure as Chief, he ushered in the Information Warfare revolution. Whether the country’s polity and “think tanks”, such as they are, are ready to accept apex-level military thinking and proactivity is a billion-rupee question, judging from the totally uncalled for, thoughtless mauling given to the current Chief, Gen VK Singh, for daring to suggest that the Indian military establishment can do an “Abottabadtype” commando action, if required.
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CONFORMIST DILEMMA: Instead of conformist thought, independent, original thinking needs to be promoted in the Army basic undergraduate education requirements, primarily because there is no policy or formal mandate imposed by the Army. The officer does not develop the intellectual skill-sets to make the transition from being a skilled tactical/operational leader to a strategic leader…” As brought out earlier in this article, the Indian Army’s charter in the foreseeable future will be coping with insurgency and terrorism. Both challenges will need officers with great thinking skills across the rank and age continuum. Clausewitz recognised the value of critical thinking for strategic leaders when he wrote, “…If we ask what sort of mind is likeliest to display the qualities of military genius, experience and observation will tell us that it is the inquiring rather than the creative mind, the comprehensive rather than the specialized approach, the calm rather than the excitable head that will deliver results.” This truism gets reinforced when we realise that the basis of out-of-the-box thinking lies in the ability to do conceptual thinking. This needs nine intellectual qualities; clarity, accuracy, precision, relevance, breadth, depth, logic, significance and fairness. These need assiduous development and are hardly legacy hand-me-downs. There is need too, to do “Thinking in Time”. This allows the thinking General a chance to www.geopolitics.in
use historical experience “in the process of devising what to do today about the prospect of tomorrow”. The recent developments in Kashmir, where Lt Gen SA Hasnain, the senior General in the Valley, has been empowered by his Army Commander and Chief to brilliantly position the past usage of the heart as a weapon (by Sultan Zain-ul-Abidin, the muchloved Kashmiri king who used it for 50 years from 1430 to 1480 AD) to great effect in the current context, has visibly reduced tension amongst the awaam; paving the way for rapprochement, not stone-pelting. This will result in reduction of what the Petraeus encouraged thinker, Australian Lt Col Kilcullen calls “accidental guerillas”; people whose motivations had less to do with religious ideology than with local grievances and the desire for self-determination. Lastly, the brilliant Cols Nagl-Yingling suggestion about changing the current mindsets about thinking in the Army deserves serious thought: “The best way to change the organizational culture of the Army is to change the pathways for professional advancement within the officer corps. The Army will become more adaptive only when being adaptive offers the surest path to promotion.” Another reform being avidly discussed in western politico-military circles especially in
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the UK and USA is that “the ability of the military and the Civil Service to identify those people who are able to operate and think at the strategic level is poor”. An American blogger, Mark Safranski, has suggested that a ‘Grand Strategy Board’ (GSB) is needed to help apex governance to see the big picture. What the Indian Prime Minister could use is a high-level group just focused on getting strategy right — or making sure India has one at all. This would be a relatively small group composed of a core of pure strategists comprising the most strategically oriented of our elder statesmen, Generals and equivalent ranks, Intelligence experts and thinkers from cognate fields. A GSB would help in drafting national strategy documents and return periodically when requested to give advice. The 2011 proceedings of the UK House of Commons; Public Administration Select Committee on “Who does National Strategy?” conclude blandly that no one seems to be “doing” UK Grand Strategy. We are no better off. Even as governance lumbers its way to a solution, maybe that the Indian Army Chief, Gen VK Singh, could proactively order such a think tank within his own establishment to put at least Indian Army critical thinking on track. (The author is a retired Major General) June 2011
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PM CHAIRS NCA WITH INTERNATIONAL concerns rising high over Pakistan’s capability to ensure that its nuclear weapons do not fall in terrorists’ hands, India has taken extra steps to secure its own and ensure that they are effective enough. It has just taken stock of its nuclear arsenal and delivery systems — long-range
ballistic missiles, fighterbombers and warships towards its quest to have an operational nuclear triad : the capability to fire nukes from land, sea and air — in the near future. A top-level meet held by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh recently was “not just a general security review’’ but in fact a full-fledged Nuclear Command Authority (NCA) conference to assess the steps being taken to consolidate and strengthen India’s “minimum but credible nuclear deterrence”, according to highly placed sources.
Coast Guard Station at Mundra THE INDIAN Coast Guard station at Mundra was commissioned on May 19 by Vice Admiral Anil Chopra, AVSM, Director General, Indian Coast Guard. Mundra will function under the administrative and operational control of the Commander, Coast Guard Region (North-West) through the Commander, Coast Guard District Headquarters-1 (Gujarat) located at Porbandar. Commandant (JG). RK Srivastava has been appointed as the first Commanding Officer of the station.The new CG station at Mundra will play an effective role in undertaking joint coastal patrol along with Marine Police, Customs and Fisheries Department to thwart maritime security threats in this sensitive coastal region. One more station at Pipavav has been planned for establishment in the State of Gujarat, in addition to those already existing, including Mundra.
Faster Mobilisation by Armed Forces BRINGING DOWN its mobilisation time drastically, the Indian Army can now move forces in just 48 hours, as against the almost-month-long time required by it earlier. The swift mobilisation is a result of the just-concluded strike corps exercise, ‘Vijayee Bhava’, in Rajasthan’s Thar Desert. After terror attack on Parliament in December 2001, the government had asked the Army to mobilise, ‘Op Parakram’, and it took 27 days to do so. However, by that time international diplomatic pressure built up sufficiently to pre-empt any possibility of a military strike against Pakistan. Since then, the Army has been working hard to bring down its mobilisation time to the minimum possible through beetter road management, better offloading, better rail links, equipment and man management. Every strike corps has been working at reducing its own mobilisation period. Movement is carried out in four phases,
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which are command elements, reconnaissance, main body and balance. Command elements comprising the formation
commanders earlier used to take eight hours, which has now been brought down to two hours. Reconnaissance comprising two officers, the second in command of the Brigade and the mobile operations, used to take 12 hours, which has been brought down to six hours. The main body of the
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formation comprises all the three units in the Brigade and their administration and logistics, which used to take 18 hours earlier, has now been brought down to 12 hours. The remaining troops were given 30 hours, as opposed to their 36 hours. It is said that ‘Vijayee Bhava’ was successful, with all the units of the 60 Brigade meeting at the destined point in 45 hours, and another couple of hours for a final check. The distance covered was around 450 kilometers, and approximately 3500 personnel moved on road, on transportation that was either hired or were army trucks. A Division has three Brigades in it, and for a complete Division to mobilise, another 10 hours could be added to this. Support elements, like engineers, logistics, doctors, medical care, artillery, and other administrative items also move along, all of which take time to fall in place. ‘Vijayee Bhava’ also tested the advanced version of the indigenous Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH), with a glass cockpit.
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Tejas on trial THE TEJAS Light Combat Aircraft is about to undergo a second phase of night trials and, if the systems perform as advertised, it will be cleared for night attack, a crucial requirement to achieve full operational clearance (FOC) as a day/night, all-weather platform by December 2012. The Tejas recently began its first phase of night attack trials. The fifth limitedseries-production aircraft (LSP 5) in the final Mk.1 configuration that includes a night-vision-capable cockpit, was used in six night flights in which test pilots conducted mock targeting and attack drills to test simulated avionics and integration of weapons and sensors. Following the first six tests last month,
Training for Scorpene subs TWO INDIAN naval crews will be going to France shortly to train for operating the Scorpene killer submarines, six of which are being built at Mazagon Docks (MDL) in Mumbai under the `23,562crore programme called Project-75. India is expecting to get the first Scorpene by August 2015. Each submarine will have just a 36-member crew since automation levels in them are very high. With India down to just 14 submarines now, the Navy is keen that the Scorpene project, which has been hit by a huge cost escalation and is running three years behind schedule, does not suffer any more slippages. Both MDL and French collaborator DCNS, however, are confident that Project-75 is now fully on track.
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India’s Defense Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) said, “The preliminary results indicate that the integrated system per-
formed very well, meeting t h e requirements of night operations.” With the Indian Air Force set on establishing its first Tejas squadron in 2013, the next 16 months are crucial for the project test team. There are several flight-envelope expansion tasks still
Change of Guard VICE ADMIRAL DK Joshi has taken over the charge of the Western Naval Command, despite the complaint of the Southern Naval Commander K N Sushil that he should be appointed for the post on basis of his seniority. Admiral Sushil had filed a ‘statutory complaint’ with the Ministry. The complaint went against Navy chief Admiral Nirmal Verma’s descision to appoint Admiral Joshi and give him experience of heading a crucial command as he is most likely to succeed him next year. Vice Admiral DK Joshi was the chief of Integrated Defence Staff to Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (CISC). He has served as the Commander in Chief of Andaman & Nicobar Command (CINCAN).
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unfinished, including assessing angle of attack, g-forces and sustained turn rate. The next limited-series-production aircraft, LSP-6, is expected to be dedicated to resolving those issues quickly. In the next few months, Tejas platforms will fire air-to-ground munitions such as cluster weapons, laser-guided bombs and S-8 rocket pods against still and moving targets. Rafale’s Derby beyond-visual-range missile is expected to be a standard on the Tejas, with trials scheduled a year from now. Reports suggest a contract could be signed shortly. In its final Mk.1 configuration, the Air Force also expects the Tejas to be fully capable of deploying Kh-59-series stand-off strike weapons and Kh-35/31 anti-ship missiles.
Kaveri passes the flight tests KAVERI K 9 engine passed eleven flight tests for about 20 hours duration till April 2011. The flight tests successfully carried out so far are up to 12 km maximum altitude and a maximum forward speed of 0.7 Mach No. The tests conducted so far include testing for engine performance under different operating conditions of the engine. With this, the first phase of Kaveri engine trials has been completed successfully and further tests will continue in the days ahead. Kaveri Engine was integrated with IL76 aircraft which is a well-established Flying Test Bed (FTB) for engines at Gromov Flight Research Institute (GFRI), Russia. Kaveri engine is one among the four engines on the Flying Test Bed platform. In 2010 Kaveri engine made its maiden flight onboard the Flying Test Bed (FTB) trials at Gromov Flight Research Institute (GFRI), Moscow, Russia.
June 2011
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INTERNAL SECURITY FRONTIER MATTERS
Earlier, it was only guarding, now the task of the BSF is managing the borders
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THE GOVERNMENT has come out with new guidelines for deployment of women personnel in BSF, SSB and ITBP making provisions FOREIGN CONTRIBUTION Regulation Act (FCRA) 2010 has been notified and it has come into force with effect from May 1, 2011. FCR Rules 2011 have also come into force from the same date. Key features of FCRA 2010 include the following: Concept of ‘permanent’ registration done away with; A five-year registration is provided so that dormant organisations do not continue. All existing registered organisations are deemed to be on a five-year validity from now. Any organisation of a political nature and any association or company engaged in the production and broadcast of audio or audio visual news or current affairs programme has been placed in the category prohibited to accept foreign contribution. A new provision has been introduced to the effect that no person, who receives foreign contribution as per provisions of this Act, shall transfer to other person unless that person is also authorised to receive foreign contribution as per rules made by the central government. Another new provision has been made to the effect that foreign contribution shall be utilised for the purpose for which it has been received and such contribution can be used for administrative expenses up to 50 per cent of such contribution received in a financial year. However, administrative expenses exceeding 50 per cent of the contribution to be defrayed with the prior approval of the central government. Any person contravening the provisions of the Act shall be punishable with imprisonment for a term which may extend to five years or with fine or with both.
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for their posting at border posts close to their hometowns as far as possible. Aimed at ensuring better working conditions for women personnel, the new guidelines also lay down that if a woman personnel is married, she should be stationed at the same place where her husband is posted, provided he too is a government employee. “The government instructions on keeping husband and wife, if both are government servants, at the same station shall be kept in view, as far as possible. However, if it is not possible to accommodate them at the same place, posting to places which can be covered by overnight journey may be considered,” the new guidelines said.
TALKS ON WITH ULFA WITHOUT BARUAH UNION HOME Minister P Chidambaram said that the Centre would start negotiations with United Liberation Front of Asom (ULFA) even if its military boss, Paresh Baruah, didn’t take part in the peace process. Baruah, who is reportedly holed up in Myanmar, has so far refused to back ULFA chairman Arabinda
Rajkhowa’s decision to hold talks with New Delhi. The ULFA hardliner doesn’t want peace dialogue before the Centre agrees to include the outfit’s demand for a sovereign Assam in the talks agenda. The Home Minister says he is satisfied with the “cooperation and support” extended by the Sheikh Hasina government in Bangladesh towards India to tide over “the internal security concerns of our country”. In a veiled reference to Dhaka’s flush-out operations against North-East-based militant outfits, Chidambaram said, “We received splendid cooperation from the Hasina government on a variety of issues for maintaining our internal security. We express our gratitude to Bangladesh for this.”
GUIDELINES ON ‘PRAVASI’ MARRIAGES THE KERALA police, in guidelines on ‘pravasi’ marriages, have come out with a set of don’ts for women from India marrying an Indian citizen residing abroad or a person of Indian origin with foreign citizenship. Foremost among the guidelines is an advice that an Indian woman should on no account take a decision in haste by bowing to pressure from others. She should not enter into an alliance merely for getting fresh pastures abroad or a green card. Alliances should not be fixed over the telephone or through email without seeing the
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family members. Alliances should not be fixed with keenness and in haste merely because one got the impression that everything was fine. Marriages should not be fixed merely on the basis of talks with a bureau, agent or broker and by blindly believing what they say. Find out whether the claims made about the groom on marriage websites are correct. Marriages should not be fixed in secrecy. If the details are discussed with close persons, friends or relatives it might yield information that no other source could provide.
June 2011
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g NO CHOPPERS FOR ANTI-NAXAL OPS
ONLY ONE helicopter is catering to over 70,000 central police troops deployed for anti-Naxal operations as six other choppers — emergency lifelines during casualty evacuation and reinforcements — are out of service for various reasons for almost two months. Government has deployed a fleet of seven helicopters — four of the Indian Air Force (IAF) and three Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH)
‘Dhruvs’ of the BSF — for use by 72 battalions of the CRPF, BSF, ITBP and local police units of the states. They have their bases at Raipur (Chhattisgarh) and Ranchi (Jharkhand). While two ‘Dhruvs’ have been gathering dust at the Raipur airbase for the last two months as their spare parts are not available, the third is with the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) as it has clocked 500 flying hours after which it needs servicing. From the fleet of the IAF, one Mi-17 was sent to West Bengal, while the other has been given to the Chhattisgarh government and the third has already clocked its stipulated flying hours and is getting serviced. With only one IAF chopper left, prioritysetting of tasks for the lone machine has become a difficult task.
J&K: EASIER ENTRY INTO CAPFS CENTRAL ARMED Police Forces (CAPFs) such as CRPF, BSF will have relaxed entry norms for all the permanent residents of the state of Jammu & Kashmir. Jammu & Kashmir will be on par with states like Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland, Sikkim and Tripura so far as relaxed eligibility conditions are concerned.
It may be noted that in the beginning, these relaxations were meant only for the residents of Jammu and predictably people in the Kashmir valley had not liked it. Now, the Government of India hopes that the relaxation of eligibility conditions for all candidates in the entire state of Jammu & Kashmir will be welcomed by all sections of the people of the state.
REVAMP INTERPOL DIVISION THE CENTRAL Bureau of Investigation plans to revamp its Interpol division. The agency will start quarterly review of Red Corner Notices after a series of goof-ups on the list of fugitives left the government red-faced. In a first official reaction, the Ministry of Home Affairs has said it is reviewing the list, The move comes after three major slip-ups by the CBI. First, it was Wazhul Kamar Khan and then Feroz Abdul Rashid Khan, two accused, who were named in India’s Most Wanted list, but were traced to Mumbai. As if that wasn’t enough, the CBI website also listed Manipuri militant outfit United National Liberation Front’s
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chairman Rajkumar Meghen as one of the most wanted while Meghen has been in the custody of the NIA since 2010. Meghen, who was arrested on October 29 last year, was listed on the CBI’s website among the most wanted. The information on his arrest was shared with the Manipur Police, which had initiated a Red Corner Notice against him. Manipur Police should have cancelled the notice, but that doesn’t seem to have happened. Though Meghen didn’t figure in the fugitive list handed over to Pakistan, his name on the CBI website has come as another embarrassment for the agency.
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B R I E F S IS
INTERNAL SECURITY
PRIVATE SECTOR IN INTERNAL SECURITY BREAKING THE shackles of the past, the government is now ready to accept participation of private players in internal security area but it would like them to spend at least 5-7 per cent of their profits in R&D to get cutting-edge technology. Union Home Secretary Gopal K Pillai said recently that the Home Ministry had undertaken several ambitious projects like the Crime and Criminal Tracking Network and Systems (CCTNS), National Intelligence Grid and visa tracking system where tremendous opportunities were waiting for the private sector.” I would like to say that in the internal security scenario, there is a huge market which is available for you,” he said at a seminar organised by Indian Chamber of Commerce in Delhi. Pillai said another project, which was in the pipeline was the Safe City Project through which the government wanted to make the cities safe. The safe city project is being started in 24 cities for the safety of the citizen through dedicated security networks and the Home Ministry hopes to extend the project to all major cities in the country in a phased manner.”If that happens then there is tremendous potential where both industries and government can collaborate,” he said. The Home Secretary asked private companies to spend at least five to seven per cent of their profits in research and development to get new technology. “I feel that most companies are still not investing enough in R&D.” Pillai said many industrial houses were hiring people on contractual basis for doing regular work which was not good. “What we see a trend, which is slightly disturbing — the use of contract labour; a contract worker does the same work that a regular worker does, but gets pay much less and does not get social security benefits. I think this is not good in the long term for the industries,” he said. The Home Secretary said industry must be willing to investment in human capital and it was important to understand that the most important capital was the human resource and it was very critical.
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MEETING THE NEW CHALLENGES
SENTINELS OF OUR BORDERS: The vigilance of the BSF is essential in ensuring the safety and security of our borders
The fast-changing security scenario on the borders and within is gradually altering the profile of the BSF. It is no longer a question of guarding the border; it is now managing the border as well as ensuring internal security. PRAKASH NANDA writes on how the BSF personnel are preparing for the new challenges
M
ANAGING A strength of 228,737 personnel in 186 battalions, including women battalions, is certainly not an easy job. But, Raman Srivastava, the present Director General of the Border Security Force (BSF) considers it as much a challenge as an honour to head the world’s largest border guarding force. And he is “extremely proud” of the achievements of his force, which, though constituted in 1965 to primarily secure the country’s international border, has, of late, assumed responsibilities to checkmate international crime, fight www.geopolitics.in
the challenges emanating from internal insurgency, and assist often in normal law and order and election duties. Given the challenges it has to confront with, the BSF is constantly reinventing its strategy, training and operational doctrines to effectively discharge the entrusted responsibilities and to live up to the expectations of the people, says Srivastava. And here comes the importance of manpower. The BSF may be among the world’s largest police forces, but its increasing work-load, born out of multiplicity of tasks, at times adversely affects the manpower situation in
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the Force. “Nonetheless, the optimum use of Force enables us to manage the situation”, Srivastava says. He is happy that the Ministry of Home Affairs (MHA), his nodal ministry, has sanctioned an additional 29 Battalions, 7 Sector Headquarters and 3 Frontier Headquarters, with the raising schedule beginning from the financial year 2009-2010 to the financial year 2013-2014. The Force has, accordingly, expanded from 157 Battalions to 164 Battalions till date, while the remaining, i.e., 22 Battalions, will be raised by the financial year 2013-2014, as scheduled. June 2011
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g INTERNALSECURITY The existing strength, together with the additional field formations sanctioned to augment the troop density in riverine, hilly and vulnerable segments on IndoBangladesh border, is thought to be adequate for the BSF to manage its responsibilities. However, the provision of ‘Reserve Battalions’ to ensure regular turnover of units for training, rest and recuperation, and also to meet the exigencies of deployment of the Force on counter-insurgency will significantly facilitate the maintenance of operational efficiency. Equally importantly, the BSF is getting modernised too, thanks to the allocation by the government in 2002 to the tune of `2330.85 crore towards modernisation, apart from the normal budget every year. Besides, a new “Modernisation Scheme” is likely to be sanctioned for the Central Armed Police Forces (CAPFs) for the next five years. The BSF is procuring modern arms and ammunition, surveillance equipment, special equipment, clothing items, BP jackets, vehicles, communications equipment, training simulators, etc. In fact, the BSF is the only CAPF that has its own Air Wing, Marine Wing and artillery regiments, which support the General Duty Battalions in their operations. It has three Dhruv and six Mil Mi-16 utility helicopters, one EMB-35 VIP transport plane, two Beechcraft Super King and two Hawker aircraft. But, everything does not seem to be well. While indigenously produced Dhruv is not exactly popular with the BSF, three aircraft are grounded at the moment and need Photo: H.C. Tiwari
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to be replaced. In fact, expansion plans for the BSF Air Wing are being formulated by the MHA and the proposals consist of acquisition of fixed wing aircraft, helicopters and creation of new airbases in North-East, Central India and Kashmir sectors. The aim is to provide adequate airlift facilities to CAPF troops serving in difficult border areas.
RESERVE BATTALIONS ENSURE REGULAR TURNOVER OF UNITS FOR TRAINING AND REST The BSF guards 2286 km of the border with Pakistan and 4096 km of the border with Bangladesh. One-third of this total length is on water-creeks and river. Hence, BSF’s maritime division consists of floating border outposts (BOP), each of which is essentially a mother craft with boats and vessels. On the Western border, BSF has six BOPs and on the eastern side four BOPs. Among them, they have about 5000 vessels and other water assets. How effective has the BSF been checking the infiltration from Pakistan and Bangladesh? As regards Pakistan, Srivastava points out that after erection of the “Border Security Fencing” infiltration has come down considerably and surveillance systems have been very effective. But on the eastern sector, things have not been very easy, mainly due to the nature of the terrain. After all, one cannot fence the entire IndoBangladesh border, significant length of which passes through rivers. Besides, here the border at “zero line” runs through human settlements, so much so that one’s bedroom is in India but the kitchen in Bangladesh! “But despite these odds, my boys are doing a fabulous job twenty four seven”, asserts the BSF DG. Srivastava is well aware of the fact that all over the world,
CHANGING FUNCTIONS: Raman Srivastava, DG, BSF, recognises that his force’s role is moving from ‘border policing’ to ‘border management’
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the concept of guarding national territories along with international borders is moving from “Border Policing” to “Border Management”. The latter covers a vast array of activities. It emerges from the cumulative efforts of the Border Security Force, the local people, other security agencies of the state, local police and state administration. As he says: “One of the problems of managing our borders is the underdeveloped nature of border areas and the alienation of the border population. Socio-economic development of border areas has a major impact on border management, and, therefore, an integrated and holistic approach is needed for the multi-dimensional development and progress of these areas and their people. Border guarding forces are the visible government institutions functioning in these areas, and play an important role in integrating the far-flung areas with the main land. Thus, the active participation of border guarding forces in the Border Area Development Programmes (BADP) yields rich dividends. Organising an effective intelligence network is also one of the major factors in effective Border Management. And we do have an excellent intelligence network.” Srivastava is all for the establishment of a National Institute of Border Management that may help in realisation of the concept of “border management” in its true sense by organising courses, seminars and workshops on social integration of the border population, economic development, infrastructure development, trade through the borders, movement through international check-posts etc. The institute could be authorised to co-ordinate with similar institutions the world over, to learn from the best practices in border management followed in other countries. And when one talks of the border management, the reputation of the BSF in tackling human problems automatically comes to mind. The BSF has been accused of violating human rights from time to time. But Srivastava dismisses all these allegations. “Like normal police officials, we do not have lathis. We do not have protective shields. What do you expect my jawans to do when attacked by violent crowds? We have to protect our lives. Let me tell you, despite great risks to their lives, my jawans have been much retrained. Our record in ensuring human rights during counter-insurgency operations has been exemplary.” The BSG DG does have a point when he describes the difficult lives of his people who invariably work in inhospitable terrains from where they cannot be shifted for months, June 2011
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MISSION COMPASSION: Active participation in the Border Area Development Programmes yields rich dividends even when their family members are either dead or on the death-bed. “Please understand their strains and anguish”, he appeals. After all, in the ultimate analysis, what counts most for a “jawan-centric” organisation like the BSF is the health of its jawans, both mental and physical. “The BSF must be a competent, rather than a tired, force”, Srivastava asserts. “In fact, my concrete contribution to the BSF is that I have ensured that each jawan has got six hours of uninterrupted sleep every day and a weekly off. I have also seen to it that there is a transparent ‘leave policy’, the lack of which in the past had caused a lot of tensions between the jawans and the officers.” Besides, many steps have been taken to keep BSF officers and jawans mentally, psychologically and physically fit. Regular yoga has been introduced in the BSF by qualified instructors in yoga. Regular interactions www.geopolitics.in
BSF IS THE ONLY CAPF THAT HAS ITS OWN AIR WING, MARINE WING AND ARTILLERY REGIMENTS between commanders and jawans are being ensured to reduce the stress level. Redressal & Grievances Cells have been set up to sort out the problems of serving personnel. Development of infrastructure in BOPs for providing basic amenities to the troops and to improve their living conditions has proved
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very useful. Introduction of force multipliers and electronic gadgets, and construction of roads, fencing and flood-lights has reduced physical and mental fatigue to the troops and enhanced operational, efficiency. Stress management capsule courses are being regularly conducted for the troops to mitigate their stress level. Regimental and community activities including sports/ games at all levels are ensured so that everyone, including officers, participates in them. Provision of better communication facilities at places of deployment, particularly, in remote areas is being ensured. Mobiles are allowed. For the jawans, returning to their homes in the North-East, chartered aircraft are arranged. In Srivastava’s scheme of things, welfare of personnel and their families will occupy centre stage. And it is something that nobody will grudge. June 2011
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INTERNALSECURITY
COUNTERFEIT CURRENCY AND ECONOMIC TERRORISM Unless India remains vigilant, counterfeit currency, pumped into the country by Pakistani ISI, can wreak havoc on the economy and abet many more terrorist attacks, writes SHRIDEEP BISWAS
O
the annals of history, but the idea of economic warfare it epitomised is yet to run
out of fashion. Of late, Pakistani Intelligence agency ISI and the anti-India militant
Courtesy: www.topnews.in
N A gloomy evening in the year 1939, a young clerk in a British bank in Tangiers in Morocco, while recording a bundle of returned notes in the banks’ ledgers suddenly made a startling discovery. What he found was that one of the notes received by the bank had already been recorded as having been paid off. What followed this detection, has for a long time been an inspiration for films and other works of fiction. Infamous in history as “Operation Bernhard” it was a secret Nazi plan devised during the Second World War to destabilise the British economy by flooding the country with forged Bank of England £5, £10, £20, and £50 notes. It was the largest counterfeiting operation in history. The plan was directed by, and named after, Schutzstaffel Sturmbannführer (SS Major) Bernhard Krüger, who set up a team of 142 counterfeiters from inmates at Sachsenhausen concentration camp at first, and then from other camps, especially Auschwitz. Major Krüger has been dead for a long time and Operation Bernhard confined to
LOW BLOW: The fake currency racket is a sneak attack at India’s economy
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June 2011
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g INTERNALSECURITY outfits, which thrive under its wings, are reportedly toying with this idea. It is an open secret today that an incredible amount of fake currency is circulating within the Indian economy and that foreign agents in collaboration with their local accomplices are pumping in Fake Indian Currency Notes (FICNs) in India at a steady and alarming rate. The value of the fake currency in circulation is estimated to be $9 million in Uttar Pradesh alone and it is estimated that in 2010 nearly $2.2 billion worth of fake currency was in circulation in India. This problem, which is steadily assuming dangerous proportions, gained global attention when the 2011 International Narcotics Control Strategy Report of the US State Department said that India faced an increasing inflow of counterfeit currency, produced primarily in Pakistan, and terrorist and criminal networks use this money to finance their activities in the country. “India faces an increasing inflow of high-quality counterfeit currency, which is produced primarily in Pakistan but smuggled to India through multiple international routes,” said the report. “Criminal networks exchange counterfeit currency for genuine notes, which not only facilitates money laundering, but also represents a threat to the Indian economy,” it added. A large chunk of fake currency comes in through India’s borders with Pakistan. The Uttar Pradesh-Bihar border with Nepal is another route for the inflow of fake currency. During an interrogation of arrestees, which followed the busting of a counterfeit currency den in UP in 2010, it was revealed that the gang used to employ a set of six women couriers from Champaran in Bihar and another set of four hailing from Nepal. The counterfeit currency notes travelled to Uttar Pradesh from Nepal from two different routes: from Nepal to UP via Bihar and directly to UP particularly through Sidharthnagar and Maharajganj route. A `1,000 denomination note was bought at the rate of `500 to `600 each while the `500 denomination was bought for `300 to `400 each. The gang used private vehicles to cross the Nepal borders while the rest of the movement was done preferably on public transport. To minimise suspicion, women couriers, particularly those with young children, were preferred to carry the counterfeit currency notes within India and were paid two per cent of the total face value of the counterfeit notes. A male shadow was also www.geopolitics.in
used to trail the couriers to ensure that they were not trapped by the police. T h e Rajasthan border is yet
ARTFUL FORGERS: Counterfeiters use increasingly sophisticated methods to beat fake currency detection machines
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT IN 2010 NEARLY $2.2 BILLION WORTH OF FAKE INDIAN CURRENCY WAS IN CIRCULATION another corridor through which Pakistani agents bring fake currency in India. Following a police raid in an ISI cell in Delhi this
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year the arrested operatives revealed that Thar Express, so-called friendship train, running between Munnabao in Pakistan and Jodhpur in Rajasthan, was being used to smuggle fake currency into India. Fake currency to the extent of `33 lakh was seized from them. They have confirmed that the Indian currency is printed in Pakistan and illegally pushed into India through Nepal, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Malaysia and Thailand. Sea-borne consignments also turn up in Tamil Nadu (from Sri Lanka) and in Gujarat (from Pakistan). Additionally, bogus notes are flown in from Dubai. The crime syndicate headed by the internationally notorious mafia boss Dawood Ibrahim is believed to play a prominent part in this economic terrorism in India. Aftab Bhakti and Babu Gaithan are believed to be the two key Dawood lieutenants running the operations from Dubai. The money is transported to India in regular flights, through ordinary passengers. Indian labourers who work in Dubai are the usual targets. The racketeers focus on those who are in need of money to purchase return tickets. They arrange tickets and ask for a favour: The passengers are handed ordinary suitcases, with perhaps perfume bottles and clothes packed inside. A false bottom conceals the fake currency, wrapped in carbon paper or hidden in photo albums. From Dubai, the fake currency consignments reach two major transit points — Mumbai and Hyderabad. Local criminal networks are activated for the purpose. In Rajasthan, for instance, fake currency operations are closely linked to satta (gambling) and opium smuggling. To make the task of foreign agents who operate in a terra incognita easy, local contacts are put to use. One such person, Asghar Ali, arrested in Ahmedabad in Gujarat in 2009, confessed having links with Pakistan intelligence agencies. He was the ‘contact man’ for those who wanted to get into fake currency business. He would tell them from where they would get the fake Indian currency and how they could send that money through hawala transactions over to Dubai and Pakistan. The ISI has been using Pakistan International Airlines (PIA) to transport counterfeit currency to its conduits in Nepal, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. The modus operandi of the ISI was revealed by two Nepali counterfeit currency traffickers who were arrested by Thailand police sometime back. During June 2011
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FIGHTING THE DELUGE: The Indian economy is being swamped with fake high denomination currency notes through various channels. interrogation, the accused disclosed that they worked for a prominent Nepali businessman. The fact that Nepali territory is being used by Pakistanis to smuggle counterfeit currency is well known. The first such expose was made when Pakistani diplomats were caught distributing FICNs. One Naushad Alam Khan, arrested in Dhaka on April 24, 2008, with fake Indian currency notes worth `50 lakh admitted his direct link with HuJI (Bangladesh) chief Mufti Abdul Hannan. The fake currency seized by the police from various operations exhibits a very high degree of sophistication. For instance, in the case of the UP-based gang discussed before, it was discovered that the fake currency notes had a different serial number. It was revealed that they had not merely been printed from a scanned image of a genuine note by using coloured scanners and printers. In case the miscreants scan a genuine note and print copies of it, the serial number of such counterfeit currency notes remain the same. Putting a different serial number on each note explains that the counterfeit currency was being printed at a very large scale. The obvious question is, “Where are these currencies manufactured?” A CBI report to the Finance Ministry suggested that the Pakistan government printing press in Quetta (Baluchistan) was churning out large quantities of counterfeit Indian www.geopolitics.in
currency. Karachi’s security press, and two other presses in Lahore and Peshawar, have also been suspected. Reports say the paper for the fake notes is sourced from London. Indian investigators also allege the Pakistani government imports currency-standard printing paper far in excess of official needs. The extra quantum is handed over to the ISI, it is believed. Churning of counterfeit currency and its gradual pumping have twofold objective. Firstly, at the macro level it aims at gradually weakening the Indian economic system, unnecessarily triggering inflation throwing the economy into a state of utter jeopardy in the long run. The more immediate motive, however, is to provide funding for the terrorist activities within the country. In India, counterfeit currency has long been seen as a source of funding for terrorism. Investigations into at least four cases — the Hyderabad bombings of August 2007; the attack on the Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, in December 2005; (intelligence sources believe that `30 lakh of the `50 lakh spent, on the attack on IIS, Bengaluru, was obtained through the fake currency racket); the Ahmedabad bombings of July 2008; and the 26/11 Mumbai terror attack revealed a link. Investigations into the Mumbai 26/11 attacks have revealed that a large part of the money to fund the terror operation was obtained through fake currency rackets and
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hawala channels. Recently, in its second charge sheet in the 26/11 attacks, the US government has named a serving ISI officer, Major Iqbal, as a key conspirator charged with providing funds to Headley. Major Iqbal, posted in Lahore during 2007 and 2008, was handling the Pakistani-American Lashkar-e-Toiba operative David Coleman Headley on behalf of the ISI. He provided $25,000 and fake Indian currency notes to Headley, to meet the latter’s expenses during surveillance operations in India preceeding the 26/11 attacks. Indigenous terrorist outfits too are ensured a loose purse by counterfeiters. The Maharashtra Anti-Terrorism Squad (ATS) told a special court that it was probing the links between the Indian Mujahideen (IM) and fake currency rackets in the country. The ATS submitted before the special court in Shivajinagar that Riyaz Bhatkal, Iqbal Bhatkal and Ahmed Yasin, founders and top operatives of the IM, had provided counterfeit notes to Maulana Hussain Shabbir Gangavali, who was arrested in Pune with `25,000 in fake `100 notes at a Janwadi mosque on December 30. The greatest justification behind studying history is perhaps the fact that it repeats itself. Nothing new happens. In the beginning I had alluded to Operation Bernhard. But history is replete with many such cases. Nations have used the counterfeiting of money as a means of warfare. Britain did this during the American War of Independence, to reduce the value of the Continental dollar. The United States did it during the Civil War against the rebellious Southern States. Today enemies within and beyond the frontiers are employing this tactic against India. The war against terror is not against a bunch of ragtag hotheaded fanatics. The enemy has a welldefined agenda, coherent plan of action and worst of all, infinite patience and perseverance. Unless the state remains vigilant, counterfeit currencies can wreak havoc in the economy. When we think of militants the clichéd image that comes to our mind is that of a Kalashnikov toting LeT, HuJi or Mujahideen operative. But in the jihad against India, the contribution of the mildmannered gentlemen preparing replicas of Indian rupee notes in printing presses in obscure quarters of Quetta or Karachi is no less than that of Ajmal Qasab. The former, perhaps is doing a more substantial job, despite being bereft of all the glamour and attention which the latter is enjoying. (The author is with the Delhi-based Institute for Conflict Management) June 2011
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geopolitics
DIPLOMACY
DEALING WITH MYANMAR
THE URANIUM FACTOR IN INDOAUSTRALIAN TIES
Courtesy: http21stcenturysocialism.com
Pragmatism is as important as democratic sentiments for India
INDIA IS THE TARGET FOR THE MAOISTS IN NEPAL
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DIPLOMATIC POUCH ¨¨
g THE MINISTRY of External Affairs (MEA) is not responsible for this, but is most affected by the Ministry of Home Affairs’ goof-up over the List of 50 Most Wanted that India handed over to Pakistan on March 28, 2011, during the Home Secretaries’ meeting in New Delhi. Though Chidambaram has owned up responsibility for the mistake, the MEA is not amused. It is the MEA that will have to
S M Krishna
listen to unpleasant things from Pakistan during upcoming Secretary-level talks that are scheduled in the coming weeks. Union Home Minister P Chidambaram on May 18 blamed the Intelligence Bureau for the blunder but dismissed the gaffe as “a normal human error”. “We take responsibility for the mistake. There was a lapse on the part of the IB in not reflecting the information received. It was a normal human error in compilation but should not have occurred,” Chidambaram said. He said that Pakistan would be conveyed that Khan is no longer required. A chastened Ministry of Home Ministry has now asked all security and intelligence agencies to update the Red Corner Notice and Look-out Circular lists every three months. The problem is last time when SM Krishna was in Pakistan to meet the then Pakistan Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Quereshi,the Home Secretary Gopal Pillai let out a string of undiplomatic home truths about our neighbour that had them frothing and embarrassing Krishna in Islamabad. The poor chap swallowed the insult and came back before giving North Block a ripper on their diatribe. But this time it is the great Indian Investigative umbrella that has made a complete fool of itself.
Jai Ho, Jai Jai Ho!
I
NDIA’S SRI Lanka policy movers and shakers are keeping their fingers crossed at the advent of J Jayalalithaa, who has just taken over as the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu after a massive electoral victory, as the AIADMK supremo has already fired the first salvo demanding action against Sri Lanka President Mahinda Rajapaksa for alleged war crimes and genocide of Tamils. Jayalalithaa’s remarks have to be taken seriously, very seriously, and not seen as mere political posturing because she has such a massive majority in Tamil Nadu assembly that she does not need any political parties’ crutches or to score any brownie points. She gave a broad indication of what is in her mind when she said at her maiden press conference in Chennai after her victory: “The President of Sri Lanka must be tried for war crimes and brought before the International Court of Law…” She did not stop at that and even suggested what India can and should do in this context: “India can no longer remain a silent spectator….If necessary, an economic blockade will have to be resorted to bring a recalcitrant Sri Lanka to heel.” Significantly, she made these remarks when Sri Lankan Foreign Minister GL Peiris was on an official three-day visit to New Delhi (May 15-17). This statement of Jayalalithaa has already sent the Sri LankaJayalalithaa watchers in the Ministry of External Affairs into a tizzy as it threatens to force Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to view the Sri Lankan Tamil issue through a new prism and tread more cautiously in this regard now than ever before. There are two reasons why the UPA government needs to worry and may be forced to have a re-look at its Sri Lanka policy. One, Jayalalithaa has made these remarks at a time when she is no longer in the company of the firebrand MDMK leader and blatant LTTE sympathiser Vaiko with whom she had struck a poll alliance in 2006 but abandoned him completely in the just-concluded polls. This means that she is speaking her own mind and is not airing views of someone else out of political expediency. Second, she has set herself an eighteen-month deadline to fulfil her electoral promises. Though she has not formally announced the Sri Lankan Tamil issue to be part of her 18-month agenda, there is nothing to suggest that she may not do so once she settles down in her third tenure as Chief Minister. 2.bp.blogspot.com
MEA AGHAST OVER LIST OF 50 GOOF-UP
Who is he?
N
OW WE don’t know what’s his clout with the Minister, but if you have any idea please do tell us. Raghhavendra Shastri is his name and he is an advisor to the External Affairs Minister. Those in the know say he is a friend, philosopher and guide the Minister and what he tells Mantriji is law as far as the Ministry of External Affairs is concerned. Shastriji’s greatest area of interest so far has been postings and appointments and he has had his way in most of them. But when he offers candidates for sensitive countries like Iran and Iraq, there is plenty of murmur and distress. But who’s to bell the cat. The PMO could be one option — you can always complain to officials there about your plight. But as one officer pithily put it, “After Shastriji the greatest source of distress is the PMO. They too are foisting all sorts of requests on us all the time.” Tricky situation indeed! Life is tough indeed when you are caught between a rock and a hard place!
P Chidambaram
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June 2011
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g So who gets to go where?
MEA’s MASTER MOVE ON PM’S AFGHAN TRIP IT NEVER happened before and a repeat may be rare. But it happened on May 11, 2011, when the MEA released Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s statement a day before his actual departure to Afghanistan — and all this because of security Manmohan Singh reasons. The fivepara statement cleverly hid the date of the visit and talks in terms of future sentence. Sample the opening sentence: “I will be leaving on an official visit to Afghanistan at the invitation of His Excellency President Hamid Karzai.” The statement was released to the media some 15 hours before the PM’s special plane took off for Kabul. It drove home the point that is central to New Delhi’s Af-Pak strategy: Indian commitment to capacity-building of Afghanistan and a boost to the nation’s infrastructure. You don’t normally see the PM’s “pre-departure” statement well before his departure on a foreign visit. But Afghanistan is a different cup of tea.
OF IPA AND PAI YEARS AGO, the Ministry of External Affairs used to have IPA, one of the 13 territorial divisions for Iran, Pakistan, Afghanistan. The nomenclature continued even after the Kargil war. Subsequently it was changed to PAI in view of the importance of Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iran to India in that order. The primary job of PAI is to get as much information from or about Pakistan as possible (needless to say that it gets able support from Research and Analysis Wing), prepare policy notes, identify pitfalls and come up with SITREPs (situation reports) on most important issues virtually on day-to-day basis. IPA aka PAI has traditionally been the most important division of the MEA, a trend that was challenged around 2005 when India’s strategic ties with the United States went on an overdrive in the wake of Indo-US nuclear deal negotiations. The Indo-US euphoria subsided as George W Bush’s tenure came to an end in 2008. But from 2009 till May 2, 2011, China upstaged the US in the MEA’s scheme of things and its EA (East Asia) Division ruled the popularity-cum-power charts within the ministry. Things changed and changed dramatically on May 2, 2011 when the US launched a daring and unprecedented commando operation in the heart of Pakistan, killed Al Qaida chief Osama bin Laden and left the Pakistani airspace in a blink with bin Laden’s body and buried it promptly in the North Arabian seabed. Now once again PAI is back in business and in roaring demand as the most important division of the MEA. Post-Osama, no country is as close to the Indian strategic establishment’s radar screens as Pakistan is. Therefore, don’t be surprised if you get hold of details of a top secret meeting in the Pakistani capital. Blame it on RAW or MEA’s PAI Division.
IT WAS a given that former Chief Election Commissioner Navin Chawla would be the next High Commissioner to Great Britain when the present incumbent Nalin Surie superannuates in July. But now comes news that it may not after all happen. Insiders in South Block are categorical that Chawla still figures in the short list, but Prime Minister ManmoNavin Chawla han Singh is keen to have retiring Cabinet Secretary KM Chandrasekhar move to Washington to replace Meera Shankar who has superannuated and is only holding charge till a new appointment is made. In the normal course, it would have been Foreign Secretary Nirupama Rao who should be going to replace Shankar as has been reported several times in the media. But it seems with the CabSec’s extension of six months not Nirupama Rao coming through, there has been a change of plans and Rao may now be adjusted with the London posting. So what happens then to Chawla? Again the grapevine suggests that he has been offered an alternative, but he is not interested. We should all know in a few weeks. By the way, another bright officer who worked with Nirupama when she was the Joint Secretary (External Publicity) has also been posted as an Ambassador for the first time. Monica Mohata moves to Poland from her perch as the Director of the Nehru Centre in London.
K M Chandrasekhar
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June 2011
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HUNGRY FOR FUEL: With 40 per cent of the world’s uranium reserves, Australia is critical to India’s nuclear power programme
WHY AUSTRALIA SHOULD SUPPLY URANIUM TO INDIA While India maintains that nuclear power is the best way to address its growing energy needs, it does not possess sufficient uranium to meet demand. Australia would make an ideal supplier, but its concerns over India’s unwillingness to sign the NPT and its possible nuclear proliferation are souring the relationship, writes RUPAKJYOTI BORAH
T
HE ALARMING events that have unfolded at Japan’s Fukushima nuclear power plant have raised environmental and health concerns the world over. The Indian government, however, is unlikely to completely dismiss the benefits of nuclear energy, given the energy crunch it is facing. India has one of the highest economic growth rates in the world, with the Indian government’s latest economic survey predicting that the country will experience growth of 8.6 per cent in 2010-11. Concurrently, India’s demand for energy is expected to double by 2025; to meet this projected level of consumption, India would have to import almost 90 per cent of its petroleum requirements. www.geopolitics.in
Ensuring India’s energy security has therefore become one of the main planks of India’s foreign policy. More than 50 percent of India’s energy is currently generated from coal, but the inferior quality of Indian coal — and the absence of modern technology to clean it — make it economically inviable, and a major environmental concern. India is already facing international pressure to accept legally binding carbon-emission targets, which the Indian government is neither willing nor able to do at this point in time. But, as a rising global power aspiring to a permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council, India cannot afford to overlook these concerns for long.
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ENERGY SECURITY THROUGH NUCLEAR POWER The supply of oil from the Middle East is not immune to disruption resulting from political crises, and the fate of the IPI (IranPakistan-India) gas pipeline now seems to be hanging in the balance: India does not wish to antagonise the United States, which has made its opposition to this deal known. India is also unlikely to suddenly begin building massive hydro-electric power plants to bridge the shortfall, since their construction involves displacing thousands of people, and causes irreparable damage to the environment. It also does not help that many Indian states, rich in hydro-power potential, such as Arunachal Pradesh, are in seismically active June 2011
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g DIPLOMACY and sensitive border regions. In the light of these factors, India has decided to go for nuclear power generation in a big way. As of 2011, nuclear power accounts for only three per cent — around 3,700 Megawatts electrical — of India’s total energy basket. However, if things go as planned, this figure is likely to go up to 20,000 MWe by the year 2020. The countryspecific waiver, granted to India by the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) in September 2008, has given India the courage and ability to aim for big increases in nuclear power generation. India, however, lacks adequate domestic uranium deposits to supply its nuclear power plants. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY RELATIONS Australia possesses nearly 40 per cent of the world’s uranium reserves, and could play a major role in ensuring India’s energy security; it already exports coal, crude petroleum and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) to India. India could also make use of Australia’s expertise in modern, technology-intensive mining techniques. A joint working group on energy and minerals between Australia and India was established way back in 1999, signalling the intent of both the countries to increase their cooperation on the energy front. During a November 2008 visit to India by the Australian Minister for Resources, Energy and Tourism, Martin Ferguson, five action plans in the fields of coal, mines, new and renewable energy, petroleum, and natural gas and power were signed. Then in a landmark deal in August 2009, India’s Petronet LNG (the country’s largest LNG importer) signed a 20-year deal with Exxon Mobil Corporation to import about 1.5 million tonnes per year of LNG from Australia’s Gorgon project. DIPLOMACY, PRAGMATISM, AND NONPROLIFERATION However, Australia’s insistence that it will not supply uranium to India unless India signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) has not only become one of the biggest stumbling blocks in energy ties between Australia and India, but also in the bilateral relationship. India has made it clear to Australia that it is unwilling to sign the NPT as a ‘non-nuclear-weapon state’, objecting that the treaty defines ‘nuclear-weapon states’ as only those countries which have manufactured and exploded a nuclear explosive device prior to January 1967. There are several reasons why Australia should reconsider its decision to not supply www.geopolitics.in
BREAKING THE DEADLOCK: The Australian government has to convince its allies, and opposition, about benefits of supplying uranium to India
AUSTRALIA’S INSISTENCE ON INDIA SIGNING THE NPT IS A HUGE STUMBLING BLOCK uranium to India: India has an excellent record when it comes to non-proliferation, unlike countries like Pakistan and North Korea. China has allegedly supplied nuclear and missile knowhow to Pakistan, and then rogue elements within Pakistan — like the AQ Khan network — have led to further nuclear proliferation worldwide. However, despite China’s doubtful nuclear credentials, Australia concluded a nuclear deal with China in 2006, paving the way for China to import Australian uranium. Australia’s ties with India have suffered significant damage on account of the incidents of attacks on Indian students in Australia, which have been latched on to by the Indian media. If Australia does change its stance on the uranium issue, it could give a new lease of life to Indo-Australian ties, in the same way as US-Indian ties were
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renewed following President Bill Clinton’s historic visit to India in March 2000. Finally, India is poised to overtake China as the most populous country on the planet. The increasing use of fossil fuels in India has already led to significant environmental damage; a shift to nuclear energy will help mitigate at least some of the consequences. The Julia Gillard government in Australia has its work cut out: it has to somehow convince its political allies, and the opposition, about the benefits that will accrue to Australia from supplying uranium to India. There is a strong anti-nuclear lobby within the ruling Labour party — but, just as in the case of the Indo-US nuclear deal, when Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh staked the survival of his government on the deal going through, Prime Minister Gillard will have to give the process a decisive push. Whether she is indeed willing to go the extra mile is the million-dollar question. One fervently hopes she would, and finally excise this irritant from Indo-Australian relations. (Dr Rupakjyoti Borah is a Senior Lecturer at the Department of Geopolitics and International Relations, Manipal University, India. He was a Visiting Fellow at the Centre of International Studies, University of Cambridge, UK, in 2009 and an Australian Studies Fellow at the Australia-India Council) ISN Insights June 2011
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MAOISTS’ FORWARD MARCH IN NEPAL
CHINESE PROXIES: Beijing has been using the Nepalese Maoists to stir up antiIndia sentiment
Courtesy: http://mikeely.files.wordpress.com
The recent events in Nepal suggest that the Maoists are determined to unleash anti-India hysteria in the country so as to benefit their mentor China, writes R S N SINGH
T
HE MAOISTS in Nepal have launched a vicious anti-India propaganda campaign. A film Dasgaja is being screened in about half a dozen theatres in Kathmandu. The title of the film, meaning ‘Ten Yards’ has connotations of a border dispute and portrays India as the hegemonic power rather a bully. SCENES FROM THE ANTI-INDIA FILM Scene A: An Indian official walks into the office of the head of Nepal’s border survey team and offers him a briefcase filled with currency and tells him that it is for his daughter’s education and the border inspection duties should be left to the Indian officials. The Indian official then goes on to say, ‘You know that you can’t do a thing without our approval. You can’t even appoint a priest in your own temple without our endorsement.’ Scene B: A Nepali worker, working in a restaurant in India is slapped and his nationality is abused when inadvertently he spills www.geopolitics.in
water on an Indian customer. Scene C: India’s Home Minister speaking on phone to his Nepalese counterpart, asking him not to persist with his demand of new inspection of the Indo-Nepal border, failing which, the Minister threatens that the government of Nepal would be toppled. Scene D: Scenes of atrocities by Indian border guards and the hero of the film leading a group of armed men and women, and removing the border pillar wrongly erected by India. There is another movie based on IndoNepal border dispute, directed by Uddham Abidits, to be released soon. The area Kalapani is located on India’s western border with Nepal. The dispute over the area is due to the differences between the two countries over the origin of the Kali River. Nepal’s claims on Kalapani is based on the contention that the river to the west of the Kalapani is the main Kali River, whereas India claims that the river to the east of Kalapani is the main Kali River. About four years back, there was another
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documentary Greater Nepal made by Manoj Pandit, which called for restoration of large parts of West Bengal, entire Sikkim, parts of Uttarakhand and Himachal to Nepal, over which he averred that Nepal had historical claims. MAOISTS ON ANTI-INDIA RAMPAGE The Maoist cadres have also been defacing foundation stones and insulting the Indian tri-colour, at projects and programmes assisted by India. Showing of black flags to the Indian Ambassador during his travels in Kathmandu, has become a regular affair. In fact, the Foreign Minister, SM Krishna, during his recent visit in April 2011, expressed ‘serious concern’ at the attacks on the Indian Ambassador. Earlier, in October 2010, the MEA had summoned Nepal’s Ambassador to India Rukma Shumsher Rana to seek explanation over the misbehaviour of Maoist cadres towards the Indian Ambassador to Nepal, Rakesh Sood. Some Maoist cadres on October 6, 2010, had greeted the AmbasJune 2011
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g DIPLOMACY sador with black flags and one of them hurled a shoe at a team of visiting Indian Embassy officials. During his recent visit to Nepal, SM Krishna met various Maoist leaders including Prachanda and took up the issue of the ongoing anti-India campaign by the Maoist cadres. Some of the top leaders were also present at a formal dinner meeting in the Indian Embassy. Despite the assurances, the anti-India campaign by Maoists has not abated; in fact, it has become more shrill, virulent and violent. FABRICATION OF BORDER AND CULTURAL DISPUTES The Maoists have been trying to overplay and even fabricate issues to create animosity between India and Nepal. The anti-India campaign by the Maoists in Nepal is becoming increasingly fierce and vicious, as the Maoist leadership feels that it is India, which is the stumbling block in their bid to capture power. That the Maoists are being prodded by China is all too obvious. The border issues between India and Nepal has hardly generated any bitterness. The issue of Indian priests in the ‘Pashupati Temple’ in Kathmandu is a revered historical tradition signifying the deep religious and cultural links between the two countries. Border issues between India and Nepal have never become bitter or intractable enough to vitiate the relationship of the two countries. But lately, the anti-India constituency in Nepal, particularly the Maoists, aided and abetted by China through the NGOs and China Study Centres (CSCs), have been trying to engineer animosity between India and Nepal by magnifying the disputes which have always proved amenable to peaceful resolutions. Most of the border disputes between India and Nepal arise in the areas where the border is riverine, covering nearly one-third of the total 1,751-km-long border. These disputes crop up every time the rivers change their course, creating new lands and submerging some old ones. There was an effective bilateral mechanism that existed between the two countries before Indian Independence, which for some reason was dispensed with after Independence. A joint team inspects the border areas every year and rectifies the natural aberrations or encroachments. Belatedly, a Joint Technical Level Boundary Committee (JTC) was established in 1981. By December 2007, the JTC was successful in delineating 98 per cent of the border on strip maps, signed by experts of the two countries, but the Nepalese government is still to formalise the www.geopolitics.in
delineation agreement. Consequent to its formalisation, the process of checking and reinstating border pillars would begin. Incumbent on it are the resolution to all contentious issues regarding border alignment, except the disputed areas of ‘Kalapani’ and ‘Sushta’, which require a political resolution. The anti-India constituency has rejected the strip maps on the specious plea that the JTC went by Persian maps prepared in 1874, which the Nepalese side did not have the competence to interpret, as a result of which India usurped more than 1500 hectares of Nepalese land. Nevertheless, Mr Pranab Mukherjee during his visit to Nepal in 2008 said that 98 per cent work on delineating a new border has been completed. The new strip maps were to have been formally signed by both sides ‘very soon’. But by 2010,
NEPAL HAS BECOME A GEOPOLITICAL ARENA OF INTENSE RIVALRY BETWEEN CHINA AND INDIA when SM Krishna visited Kathmandu, no progress had been made. Beset by unrelenting and motivated opposition from the Maoists-cum-anti-India constituency, it is increasingly becoming difficult to demarcate the boundary. This delay was exactly what the anti-India forces wanted. After loss of power and being politically circumscribed by the rest of the political players, the Maoists have been desperately trying to mobilise the masses by stoking anti-India sentiments. In that they have picked up the most enduring and sensitive symbols of Indo-Nepal cultural ties i.e. the Indian priests in the Pashupati Nath Temple. On September 5, 2009, two newly appointed Indian priests were attacked by the Maoists and paraded naked. It has been the age-old tradition of the temple to appoint SouthIndian priests after a rigorous selection process. These priests need to be scholars of all the four ‘Vedas’. When the Maoists came to power, they attempted to replace a SouthIndian priest with a Nepalese one, but he turned out to be totally lacking in the prescribed abilities. The Supreme Court turned down his appointment and the Indian pundits were reappointed.
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FOURTH PHASE OF MAOIST AGITATION The anti-India campaign of the Maoists is a well-deliberated strategy and is in consonance with the ‘Fourth Phase’ of the Maoist agitation, announced in January 2010, in the Central Committee meeting. Originally, this phase was to be driven by the agenda of ‘Civilian Supremacy’, but was suspended in favour of anti-India campaign because the Maoists feel that it was at the behest of India and its leverages in the politics of Nepal that the Maoist government fell following its aborted bid to remove the Nepal Army Chief in May 2009. The Nepal Army, the Maoist leadership feels, is the only robust barrier in its way to establishing its one-party revolutionary regime. In its anti-India campaign, and in keeping with the sensitivities of the Indian Maoists, Prachanda while embarking on the Fourth Phase, tried to drive a wedge between the Indian state and the Indian people. He proffered: “Dialogues and struggle with Indian state, and solidarity with Indian people.” In the same Central Committee meeting, a decision was taken to send five top Maoist leaders to five disputed border locations i.e. Kalapani, Susta, Pashupati Nagar, Laxmanpur, and Khurdalautan. There were also plans to publicly burn copies of Indo-Nepal Treaty 1950, Sugauli Treaty 1816, and other IndoNepal agreements. Demonstrations near the Indian Embassy were also part of the plan. CHINA SEDUCES NEW DISPENSATION The Maoists viewed the preceding Prime Minister Madhav Nepal as a stooge of India. So did China. During his visit to China in December 2009, the Chinese authorities were high on assurances and rhetoric but low on yield. This is mainly ascribed to the Chinese perception that the Madhav Nepal government was backed by India. No sooner Jhalanath Khanal was elected as Prime Minister in February 2011, after 17 attempts in seven months; two very significant and high- level Chinese delegations visited Nepal, having economic and military agendas, respectively. In February 2011, during the visit of Vice Minister of Commerce Fu Ziyang, China and Nepal reached an agreement on details of a new economic package. In the following month, General Chen Bingde, head of China’s PLA, visited Kathmandu and announced US $ 20 million aid assistance, non-lethal in import. When the Maoists came to power, China was believed to have prepared itself to embark on a host of momentous initiatives and investments in Nepal, the important being the extension of Tibet Railway to Lumbini in southern Nepal, construction of June 2011
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g DIPLOMACY outer ring road in Kathmandu and assistance in hydroelectric projects. As a quid pro quo the Prachanda government was to enter into China-Nepal treaty as countervail to the India-Nepal Treaty of 1950. However, much to the chagrin of China, the Maoist government fell in May 2009. The Chinese authorities, it is learnt, were peeved at the Maoists for inviting collapse of the government over the issue of removal of the army chief. The Chinese saw Indian hand in engineering the exit of the Maoist government. CHINA’S NEW GEOPOLITICAL THRUST Before 2008, China was overwhelmingly guided by the Tibet factor in its relations with Nepal. The Beijing Olympics were also a major strategic constraint. Prachanda on assuming power cracked down heavily on Tibetan refugees. The number of Tibetans crossing into Nepal dropped from 3000 to 500 in 2008. Thus, Prachanda ingratiated himself to the Chinese. Bilateral visits between the two countries, both publicised and secret, were at a feverish pitch during that period. Consequent to the Indo-US nuclear deal the tenor and import of China’s strategic thrust in Nepal moved away from Tibet-centricity to encompass South Asia as such. Since then Nepal has become a geopolitical arena of intense rivalry between China and India. The fall of the Maoist government totally belied China’s strategic calculations. Ever since, it has been on an overdrive to cobble a pro-China and anti-India government in Nepal. Some observers are of the view that Nepal was without a PM for seven months due to the geopolitical tussle between China and India. While India’s former Foreign Secretary Shyam Sharan was entrusted with the task to cobble a formation that excluded the Maoists, China was attempting the opposite. It had sent He Yong, a secretariat member of the Communist Party, as its points-man. Early this year a tape was in circulation in the Nepalese media wherein a Maoist leader was heard speaking to a man with Chinese accent. The latter offered US$ 6.9 www.geopolitics.in
million to buy the support of 50 Nepalese legislators. At the height of the deadlock, Prachanda with another Maoist hardliner Mohan Vaidya visited China at the invitation of the Communist Party of China in October 2010. The composition of the team is significant, as Vaidya is the political think-tank of the Maoists, the other members of the delegation were Krishna Bahadur Mahara, now the Home Minister and Prakash Dahal, Prachanda’s son. Prior to Prachanda’s visit, some former Maoists military commanders visited China in September 2009 without the permission of the government. They were then under the supervision of the UN. As per the agreement, reached between the Maoists and the government, the former Maoist combatants came under an All Party Special Committee. CPN (Maoist) CP Gajurel said: “How and by whose permission they went on the visit, we cannot say.” Earlier in September 2009, Prachanda went to Hong Kong and allegedly had several meetings with the Chinese officials. It is believed that he lobbied for China’s support for taking over Nepal by force. It is also believed that the Chinese authorities advised him against it and to drop his plans of launching ‘People’s Revolt’. Prachanda’s first visit to China was in August 2008 during the closing ceremony of Olympic Games in Beijing. This was a major departure from the established diplomatic practice of Nepalese PMs, choosing India as their first destination after assuming office.
TENUOUS HANDSHAKE: Minister for External Affairs SM Krishna with Nepalese President Dr. Ram Baran Yadav
The Chinese officials after several meetings with the Maoist leaders and Khanal, in Nepal and Beijing, forged a leftist alliance. Such was China’s premium on a Maoist government that it reportedly had advised Prachanda that he could even reach out to Delhi if that brought him back as PM. It was because of the internal dynamics of the CPN (UML) that China could not engineer a Maoist-led government. It then settled for the next best option i.e. a government led by Khanal with unimpeachable pro-China credentials. The new Deputy Prime Minister and the Foreign Minister of Nepal, Upendra Yadav, is also known for his strong pro-China leanings. He was also the Foreign Minister in the Prachanda-led government. Before floating the Madhesi Janadhikar Forum (MJF) he was a Maoist cadre. The MJF has always been suspected to be another Maoist front created to stem the erosion of Maoist support base in Terai. The Maoists have come tantalizing close to seizing power. They have seven cabinet ministers and four state ministers in the Jhalanath Khanal cabinet. The most sensitive being the Home portfolio, Jhalanath Khanal appointed Krishan Bahadur Mahara as the Home Minister in contravention of the decision of the CPN (UML). The party was against giving security-related ministry to the Maoists. How can the Maoists have the portfolio of Home Minister even without repudiating violence, armed forces and weapons, was the feeling. With a Maoist as the Home Minister of Nepal, antiIndia activities in Nepal will witness unprecedented spurt. It is also no coincidence that Arundhati Roy visited Nepal during that period and reportedly met Hisila Yami, a Central Committee member of the CPN (Maoists), in Nepal. Hisila, a former Tourism Minister, was a classmate of Arundhati in the Delhi School of Architecture. Reportedly, Arundhati also met Agni Prasad Sapkota, who has now taken over as Information and Communication Minister. Sapkota has murder charges against him. Given the Maoist accent on anti-India propaganda, the Information and Communication portfolio assumes significance. (The author is a former military intelligence officer )
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POWER AND PRESENCE IN THE INDIAN OCEAN The Indian Ocean is India’s strategic environment and a vital determinant of the country’s security and economy, its future power and global reach. But to what extent can India determine what is happening in its waters? How and how much can India influence global politics, presence and power play in the Indian Ocean, its rim, region and routes, asks SURYAKANTHI TRIPATHI
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HAT THE great American theorist of geo-strategic naval power, Rear Admiral Alfred Thayer Mahan, foretold with prescience prior to the First World War, is common knowledge. Whoever attains maritime supremacy in the Indian Ocean, he said, would be a prominent player on the international scene, and whoever controls the Indian Ocean would dominate Asia. One century later, for the very reasons mentioned by him, the strategic waterways of the Indian Ocean, with its critical chokepoints, are now the focus of intense global scrutiny. Also attracting great attention is the Chinese effort to secure a series of bases and ports along the sea routes from its own coast to the Persian Gulf oil sources, augmented by strong economic and diplomatic ties with the relevant littoral states, an endeavour commonly
referred to as China’s “string of pearls”. Robert D. Kaplan, a Senior Fellow at the Center for New American Security, in Washington, believes: “The Chinese are the Mahanians now.” They say that China finds its policy sustenance in the strategic wisdom of Admiral Mahan, and meets the Mahan pre-
CONSTANT VIGIL: India has got its guard up against Chinese intrusion in the Indian Ocean
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requisite of amassing international commerce, merchant and naval fleets and forward bases. Mahan did indeed postulate that commerce was of paramount importance, and that a large and powerful navy was needed to defend and expand power. China’s ceaseless demand for hydrocarbons and raw materials has made it tap distant sources and acquire worldwide reach. Chinese writings emphasise the link between commerce and naval power, and that critical imports call for a force capable of protecting the transportation routes. Their goal, it is said, is eventually to command strategic passages, such as the Straits of Hormuz and the Straits of Malacca, traversed by their vital goods. China sees itself as an oceanic power, given its long coastline, several islands, the South China Sea in its backyard, and ambitions in two oceans. China’s expanding naval capabilities and ambitions have had the effect of alerting quite a few countries.
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g DIPLOMACY In 2007, India was part of the so-called Quad Initiative, in which four countries — India, Australia, Japan and USA — came together and carried out joint naval exercises in the Indian Ocean, reportedly the biggest-ever in these waters. The exercises were presented by India as just an expansion of the Malabar Series, conducted with the US since 1992, with the addition of Australia and Japan, and including a small participation by Singapore. However, given the size and scope of Malabar CY 07-2, as these exercises were called, and the new war games that they entailed, the world saw this foursome as combining to counter the potential threat of China. The official Indian position was largely that the Quad naval event had no security implications and was just an expected graduation to major exercises. Analysts, however, saw India’s new alignment with the already-existing security triad of Australia, Japan and the US as indicative of its significant strategic shift. In a similar context, when the Defence Minister AK Antony laid the foundation stone in Kerala for the National Institute for Research and Development in Shipbuilding in early January, the event was picked up by newspapers from across the world. The new naval research centre was immediately clubbed as part of India’s efforts to build its sea defence and step up its naval capabilities in response to the increasing Chinese presence and influence in the Indian Ocean region. The Indian defence establishment was seen as expressing a sense of urgency about speeding up naval procurement and enhanced capabilities. The annual bilateral exercise held in January 2011 off the Goa coast by the Indian and the French navies, the tenth in the series, was viewed by some in the same context because it had a larger gamut of maritime operations, ranging from aircraft carrier operations, anti-submarine warfare operations to maritime interdiction operations exercises. This exercise with the participation by France’s carrier strike group led by aircraft carrier Charles De Gaulle included the first deployment of the newly-inducted French destroyer, FNS Forbin. In fact, this Indo-French exercise has been progressing with every phase, and as the official release of the Indian Defence Ministry said, “Due to increasing piracy and maritime terrorism, navies of several countries have been cooperating with each other to strengthen maritime security in the Indian Ocean region. Naval cooperation between India and the France epitomises this and is in the longterm interests of both countries.” www.geopolitics.in
BLUE WATER COALITION: India’s alignment with US, Australia and Japan is indicative of a significant strategic shift Following the terrorist attacks on the US of September 11, 2001, the Indian Navy did a well-publicised escort of US shipping through the Straits of Malacca. Its relief efforts in the wake of the devastating 2004 tsunami gave it the further impulse for maritime diplomacy. The foreign affairs cell in the Naval Headquarters was upgraded to a full-fledged Directorate of Foreign Cooperation in 2005 to look into aspects of maritime diplomacy as well as help shape exchange and training programmes. It was evident that the Indian Navy was seeking to forge constructive alliances with the Indian Ocean region and other extra-regional navies. In 2008, the Indian Navy launched the biennial Indian Ocean Naval Symposium (IONS) in New Delhi, aimed at maritime cooperation and among the navies of the littoral states of the Indian Ocean. Robert Kaplan calls the Indian Ocean, “the world’s busiest and most important interstate,” with 50 per cent of all container traffic and 70 per cent of all petroleum traffic traversing its waters. In his view, the Indian Ocean — the world’s third largest body of water — already forms centrestage for the challenges of the 21st century. The Indian Ocean, he says, combines the centrality of Islam with global energy politics and the rise of India and China to reveal a multilayered, multi-polar world. It is this region — with China and India jockeying for dominance, the United States trying to maintain its
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influence, and unstable regimes threatening the flow of resources — that will be the setting for most of the global conflicts in the coming decades. In his book Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and The Future of American Power Kaplan, notes, however, that the battle for the Indian Ocean will not be like the conflicts of the past and that China, for instance, would not be a straightforward foe like the Soviet Union. “The real lesson here is the subtlety of the world we’re entering, of which the Indian Ocean provides a salient demonstration,” Kaplan adds. “Instead of the hardened military bases of the Cold War of earlier epochs, there will be dual-use, civilian-military facilities where basing arrangements will be implicit rather than explicit.” Professor James Holmes of the US Army War College, speaking at the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission in June 2007, said that China turning its attention and energies to the seas has become a staple of Western commentary. China was indeed pursuing sea power — as measured by the Mahanian indices of commerce, bases, and ships — and was building up a powerful navy with dispatch. Securing beachheads in the Indian Ocean basin was the precursor to a more vigorous future strategy in the region. Even if the Chinese themselves did not refer to their strategy as such, he says that the ‘string-of-pearls’ concept does help explain China’s behaviour in the Indian Ocean June 2011
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g DIPLOMACY struction of road and rail transportation between the two countries. And then, there is the deep sea port that China is building at Kyauk Phyu in the Rakhine region of western Myanmar. Myanmar is at the strategic junction between South Asia and Southeast Asia, and shares borders with both the Asian giants, India and China. Beijing views it as a strategic and economic pivot, as it provides a vital outlet to the Indian Ocean for Yunnan and China’s other landlocked, southern provinces. China has also long fretted about the choke point of the Straits of Malacca, through which the bulk of its imported fuel passes, being extremely vulnerable to piracy or blockade. Hailed as the “golden bridge of friendship”, the new deal between Myanmar and China takes care of these concerns. Beijing has obtained permission, this January, to build and operate a wharf on Myanmar’s west coast to receive tankers coming from Africa and the Middle East, and then transport their cargo overland, via the China-Burregion. Beijing could leverage its informal strategic alliances with Myanmar and Pakistan, to name two countries that have granted basing rights, to counterbalance US power, check India’s rise, and monitor maritime activities carried on by these competitors. He calls the port facility in Gwadar, in western Pakistan, as one of Beijing’s bestknown “pearls”, with Pakistani officials trumpeting its geostrategic significance. Located near the Strait of Hormuz, the new seaport represents both an economic gateway and a military opportunity for Beijing. In terms of energy security, Gwadar could act as a strategic hedge, giving Beijing a workaround should the United States blockade the Malacca Strait, since Persian Gulf oil could technically be offloaded at the port and transported overland to China. From a military standpoint, he says, Gwadar offered a useful installation for monitoring commercial and military traffic passing through the critical chokepoint at Hormuz. Over the longer term, if China should develop a navy robust enough to project credible power into the Indian Ocean, the port would allow Beijing to directly shape events in the Persian Gulf. Professor Holmes, however, concludes that Gwadar by no means represents a trump card for China, either in energy security or in military terms, mainly because of the naval might of the US in that region, and the likely disinclination of Islamabad to jeopardise relations with Washington for the sake of cooperation with Beijing. Another key focus for China is Myanmar, where both its civilian and military personnel have been engaged in large-scale conwww.geopolitics.in
AT HAMBANTOTA AND KYAUK PHYU, INDIA HAD THE ORIGINAL ADVANTAGE THAT IT CEDED TO CHINA ma dual oil and gas pipeline to southern China. According to reports, the Kyauk Phyu port will have a depth capable of handling the biggest deep-draught container ships that currently dock at the world’s largest ports, including Shanghai. This port, and the connected road, rail and pipeline links, in all of which Beijing is investing heavily, constitute a key piece in its energy supply chain and a significant asset in its geo-political strategy. For India, all this means the close, active, large-scale and permanent presence of China right next to us in the Bay of Bengal. Rear Admiral AK Chawla, in a symposium on Maritime Security in December 2010, said, “Sri Lanka’s strategic maritime location, in the very lap of the Indian Ocean and at the confluence of several critical shipping lanes gives it great importance in the maritime affairs of not just the Indian Ocean, but globally as well.” Hambantota Port is on Sri Lanka’s southern tip, from where further south, across the great waters, the next landfall is
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Antarctica itself. It is just a few nautical miles north of one of the world’s most important east-west shipping route that fuels a large part of the global economy, and has over 36,000 ships passing every year. While analysts see in Hambantota another pearl of China’s grand naval design, both the Chinese and the Sri Lankans insist that the port is purely a civilian one. Given the oil refinery, a container facility, an airport, a bunkering establishment, ship repairing and other commercial installments, it does seem so for the present. However, keeping in mind Robert Kaplan’s edict about a subtle new world, one should not entirely ignore its latent and implicit potential. As reported, according to Vice Admiral KN Sushil, Flag Officer Commanding-in-Chief of India’s Southern Naval Command, the building of the port by China in Sri Lanka would not hamper our security, but what needed to be seen was whether the Chinese continued to sit there even after completion of the port. It is ironic that both at Hambantota and at Kyauk Phyu, India had the original advantage that it ceded to China, perhaps owing to lack of strategic forethought. India had reportedly declined to take on the Hambantota port project when it was initially offered by the Sri Lanka President, Mahinda Rajapakse, only after which the Chinese were asked to step in. In the case of Kyauk Phyu, it has been for many decades a regular port of call for steamers in the rice trade between Myanmar and Kolkata, and none could have known the significance of its location in the Bay of Bengal better than India did. The Hambantota project is part of Sri Lanka ambitious plan to become a trading hub at the heart of the Indian Ocean, and it has expressed the hope that there would be largescale Indian commercial engagement with Hambantota, which could absorb up to US$ 6 billion of investment. In terms of the scale of assistance and planned projects in Sri Lanka, while India may not be too far behind China, Delhi needs to work on the speedy implementation of agreed plans. Further, the new Indian Consulate in Hambantota must adopt an active agenda so that India, which missed the main Hambantota opportunity and left the field open to China, is more purposeful and productive this time around. In a paper published in the Naval War College Review of Spring 2006, Donald Berlin, Professor in the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, says that India’s strategic elite, in some ways, regarded the nation as heir to the British Raj, whose power and influence in the 19th century often extended to the distant shores of the Indian Ocean, the “British Lake”. June 2011
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STRATEGIC ENCIRCLEMENT: China’s ‘String of Pearls’ aims to extend a significant presence in India’s backyard Perhaps, subconsciously, this is also one reason why India, for several decades after Independence, did not pay serious attention to what was happening in its oceanic neighbourhood. While asserting that India was strategically located vis-à-vis both continental Asia and the Indian Ocean Region, the security consciousness of Indians tended to be more land-oriented. The Indian Ocean was taken for granted under the assumption that the country would naturally be able to exercise influence there. However, times have certainly changed. What has not changed is what, KM Pannikar said in the 1940s, “While to other countries the Indian Ocean is only one of the important oceanic areas, to India it is a vital sea. Her lifelines are concentrated in that area, her freedom is dependent on the freedom of that water surface. No industrial development, no commercial growth, no stable political structure is possible for her unless her shores are protected.” Indian and Chinese aspirations, and their quest for energy security, have compelled the two countries “to redirect their gazes from land to the seas,” according to James Holmes. In addition, the very fact that they are focusing on their sea power indicates how much more self-confident they feel on land. A map of the Indian Ocean, therefore, helps expose the contours of power politics www.geopolitics.in
in the twenty-first century. Kaplan’s capping view, however, is that precisely because India and China are emphasising their sea power, the job of managing their peaceful rise will fall on the US Navy. The US Congressional Research Service has published a major study in December 2010 on ‘China’s Naval Modernisation and its Implications for US Navy Capabilities’ in which there is an opinion by Daniel Kostecka, a senior analyst for the US Navy, which is of immediate pertinence to India. He says that although China is building commercial port facilities in the Indian Ocean, to date it has not established any naval bases there. He argues that despite a decade of speculation, there appears to be no hard evidence to suggest that China plans to base warships in Bangladesh, Sri Lanka or the Maldives. In fact, all these three nations, given their proximity to India, would desire to balance their relations between India and China, and would not permit Chinese military presence on their soil. While the Chinese are heavily investing in developing infrastructure for improved access into the Indian Ocean, which in turn is helping it gain political influence in these countries, Kostecka says the extent to which it would translate into basing arrangements remains to be seen. Recent denials of future Chinese naval bases
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in Bangladesh and Sri Lanka, as well as the reliance of the Maldives on India for security assistance, should be taken as clear signs that such arrangements are further than some may think. To him, all these three are unlikely “pearls” for the Chinese navy. In his later paper, ‘The Chinese Navy’s Emerging Support Network in the Indian Ocean’, published in the Naval War College Review of Winter 2011, he further elucidates this point by saying that as a self-imposed policy, China does not base military forces in foreign countries, and Chinese officials talk of this as evidence of their peaceful development. Chinese officials do not indicate that Beijing is considering building financially and politically costly American-style military bases, with the attendant infrastructure to support thousands of deployed or permanently-assigned personnel. However, China’s growing global, economic and political interests make Beijing take a more nuanced policy approach to the deployment and employment of military force. They seem to adopt what US officials refer to as a “places not bases” strategy, meaning a collection of places for Chinese navy ships to visit for purposes of refueling and restocking supplies, but not bases. This type of strategy involves securing diplomatic agreements with friendly governments that permit access to essential supplies, such as fuel, food and freshwater for deployed forces, and could also involve reciprocal guarantees of support in areas such as military training, equipment, and education. In any scenario, India, China and the US, and their interaction with the littoral states of the Indian Ocean, will be key factors that will shape this region in the decades ahead. About three-fourth of India’s trade in value terms is sea-borne and is critical to its trade and development. What price will India have to pay for the ambitions of the other powers in the Indian Ocean in which it has compelling interests itself? How should India manage its politico-military, economic and energy nexus and needs, which are so dependent on the oceans? To what extent are India’s ocean diplomacy and strategy currently as fundamental as its land diplomacy and strategy? Are there other opportunities that India risks losing, as in the case of Hambantota and Kyauk Phyu? Are there other ‘places and bases’ that India should be actively looking at? (The author, a former Indian Ambassador to Spain, has worked on multilateral economic relations and groupings, South East Asia and on Indian Ocean-related issues) June 2011
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ENIGMA OF ENGAGEMENT Notionally under a civilian government, Myanmar continues to be controlled by the military. In this situation, India, like the ASEAN nations, should adopt a pragmatic policy of constructive engagement, not total solidarity, with Myanmar’s regime in order not to push it further into China’s arc of influence, argues SD MUNI
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YANMAR’S CLAIM to lead the Association of SouthEast Asian Nations (ASEAN) regional grouping in 2014 has been deferred for the time being. The claim was put forth by the head of Myanmar’s first elected government, President Thien Sein at the 18th ASEAN summit held in Indonesia on May 7-8, 2011. The objective behind this claim is to reinforce international acceptance and legitimacy for the new civilian political order in Myanmar and enhance its engagement with the inter-
national community. This will help in the process of ‘national construction’ outlined by President Thien Sein in his first address to the elected parliament in April 2011. Myanmar had first staked its claim to the alphabetically rotating chair of the organisation in 2005 but was then dissuaded by the group for want of the military junta’s disapproval by the wider international community. ASEAN, China and India have been comfortably dealing with the junta. Laos was instead asked to undertake the responsibility and Myanmar was persuaded to democratise in keeping with the
spirit of the group and expectations of its extra-regional partners. In the order of rotation, Myanmar’s turn for leading the group should be due in 2015, but it has secured Laos’s acceptance to accommodate its claims a year earlier in lieu of a year’s advance given to Laos in chairing ASEAN in 2005 by Myanmar’s then withdrawal of its claims. ASEAN may not mind being led by Myanmar but it would examine the extent to which Myanmar’s newly-elected parliamentary government is committed to the democratic and human rights values and principles of the group. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhyono, the current ASEAN chair, declared after the summit that “in principle, ASEAN’s leaders do not object to the proposal”, but added, “we hope that Myanmar will continue with the process since it has caught the world’s attention”. ASEAN’s final decision in this respect will be taken after a delegation led by Indonesia visits Myanmar and reports on the country’s commitment to move on the path of democracy. This is a clear move to buy some more time to activate ASEAN diplomacy at three levels: persuade Myanmar to show further democratic credentials; evolve a consensus among all the ASEAN members; and, then take the international community on board. Dr. Surin Pitsuwan, the Secretary General of ASEAN, was confident that an agreement could be reached, provided Myanmar makes further political progress by 2014. He further added: “We just have to see how things develop…whatever is achieved; we need true consultations inside (ASEAN), so that everybody is happy and confident and
HOLDING ON TO THE REINS: The Junta’s hold still remains strong
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g DIPLOMACY then we will be ready to consult with our dialogue partners.” DEMOCRACY DEFICIT ASEAN endorsed Myanmar’s move towards democracy, according to its own roadmap. However, there are reservations both within and outside ASEAN on the way this roadmap is being implemented. Myanmar has an elected parliament and an elected President, but 25 per cent of the seats in the Upper House (224) and the Lower House (440) are reserved for the military. This provision can be changed but only through a constitutional amendment, which will require the support of 75 per cent of parliament members. In the elections to the parliament held under the new constitution in November 2010, the main opposition leader and icon of democracy in Myanmar, Nobel Laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, was not allowed by the junta to contest and as a result her party, the National League for Democracy, which is the biggest opposition party, did not participate in the elections. Some smaller parties contested elections and constitute about 25 per cent of the parliamentary strength, but the rest of the parliament is composed mostly of the military loyalists. Suu Kyi has since been released and she has freedom of speech and movement but is still finding it difficult to reorganise her supporters. There are about 2000 political activists still languishing in military prisons and innocent people are subjected to forced labour by the state. The former junta chief General Than Shew retired as the Commander in Chief but got himself elected to parliament where he closely monitors and influences major political developments. This is reflected in the election of his known loyalist, Thien Sein as the President. Thien Sien, though bereft of battlefield experience, was promoted as a General and to the higher echelons of the previous ruling regime, the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC) by General Than Shew. In 2007 he was made Prime Minister to replace the then ailing General Soe Win. For being free from the blemish of corruption and human rights violations like most of the other Generals, Thien Sien is open to foreign assistance and is comparatively more acceptable to the international community. But his loyalty too, and political dependence on his mentor, General Than Shew is seen as a major constraint in pushing Myanmar’s political liberalisation forward. In his key addresses and interviews, he has talked of national construction, improving education, health and infrastructure, fighting corruption, modernising the army and promoting www.geopolitics.in
STRUGGLING TO TRANSFORM: India wants democratic reforms in Myanmar international cooperation. There has, however, been no reference in his speeches to constructively engage the opposition parties and accommodating ethnic groups like the Karens and the Shan against which the army continues to wage counter-insurgency operations. He has appointed U Myint, a former professor of economics at Rangoon University and a close friend of Suu Kyi, as a member of the presidential advisory board, but there are no signs of the regime opening a meaningful political dialogue with Suu Kyi. INTERNATIONAL CONSENSUS In view of the persisting democracy deficit of the new Myanmar, there is also a lack of international consensus on accepting Myanmar as the leader of ASEAN. Some of the original five ASEAN members themselves want to go slow on this issue and countries like Singapore have openly argued that Myanmar should wait until 2016 to lead the group after Malaysia had taken its turn. The United States and the European Union members are opposed to participating in ASEAN plus individual ministerial meetings and summits that are the integral part of the ASEAN process if Myanmar is in the chair.
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The imperatives of the wider strategic interests of the United States as well as EU demand that Myanmar should be engaged to keep it from drifting completely under the Chinese hegemony and also to take advantage of its untapped resources. In some of these western countries there are exaggerated fears of Myanmar’s collaboration with North Korea in its search for nuclear aspirations. On the question of Myanmar assuming the ASEAN chair, neither the US nor the EU members can afford to distance themselves from the economically dynamic group of ASEAN in this age of Asian resurgence. No wonder that the US and EU had given unmistakable indications in recent years that engagement with Myanmar is an option worth pursuing seriously. US President Obama and Secretary Hillary Clinton have cautiously pursued this objective while keeping the pressure of sanctions on Myanmar for opening up its political system. US diplomats have been widely interacting with diverse business, human rights and political groups in Myanmar in this respect. The visit of the UN Special Envoy to Myanmar in May 2011 is a clear pointer towards the international community’s desire to engage with June 2011
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g DIPLOMAY developing much-needed policies”. There were indications again in May 2011 by the EU to the Myanmar Federation of Chambers of Commerce and Industry that sanctions would be relaxed further. Such activities are encouraged by the new regime as also some of the opposition parties in the new parliament like the National Democratic Force. These parties draw their support from small and medium businesses in Myanmar which have been adversely affected by the sanctions. The NLD of Suu Kyi, on the other hand, holds to the position that the sanctions have only affected the former junta regime and its leaders and, therefore, continues to plead for keeping them in place to force the new regime towards accommodation with the opposition. In fact, the junta regime, since 2007, had been probing Suu Kyi to help them in getting the sanctions relaxed. They expected that her release soon after the elections in November 2010 would make a positive impact in this respect, but in vain. The opposition to the softening of the sanctions comes from influential EU members like the United Kingdom as they have linked their Myanmar policy to the political fate of Suu Kyi.
Myanmar and push it towards democratisation. But the US, on the lines of the UK, insists on accommodation and engagement of Suu Kyi by the new Myanmar regime. The European Union has often remained divided in its Myanmar approach. Germany has carried on substantial trade, including hi-tech products, (emerging as the largest EU trading partner) with Myanmar to which even the US State Department had taken exception to in 2009. The French oil major, Total, is exempted from the EU sanctions regime against Myanmar. In fact, the EU sanctions regime does not put a ‘blanket ban’ on trade but applies only to specific sectors like those of gems, timber, arms and travel ban on specific political figures of the junta regime. Austrian Ambassador to Myanmar Dr. Johannes Peterlik organised the visit of a delegation of more than 20 European companies in April 2011, for ‘economic factfinding’. In April, EU relaxed some of its sanctions with regard to travel restrictions and asset freeze on four ministers and 18 vice-ministers of the new Myanmar regime. This was described as a move “to encourage and respond to improvements in governance and progress in the hope that a greater civilian character of the government will help in www.geopolitics.in
INDIA’S INTERESTS An authoritarian and insular regime in Myanmar admirably served China’s interests. China does not seem to prefer an open democratic system on its periphery. The new regime for China is a continuation of the junta in many respects and accordingly it would like this regime to gain legitimacy and international support. Jia Qinglin, member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, said in April 2011; “We urge the international community to take advantage of the inauguration of new administration to encourage the nation’s moves towards democracy.” For India however, a vibrant democracy in an internationally engaged Myanmar will serve its best interests. India had to make compromise on democracy in Myanmar in 1992 under the compulsions of its security interests. India should therefore exercise whatever goodwill and influence it has in Myanmar to help it move towards a democratic order, not only in form but also in substance. It is also in India’s long-term interest that Myanmar is meaningfully engaged not only with ASEAN but also with the wider international community. That is why India encouraged Myanmar to join SAARC as an observer and Bay of Bengal Initiative for MultiSectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) as a member. India
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on its own, and also in collaboration with ASEAN, works for reinforcing democratic dynamics in Myanmar and for lifting of the US and EU sanctions on it to facilitate this wider international engagement. Through its bilateral cooperation, India has built its stakes in Myanmar, but Indian diplomacy on its own cannot deal with an assertive and rising China in Myanmar. India is substantially involved in helping Myanmar build both its economic and defence capabilities but this bilateral cooperation cannot be sustained on a long-term and mutually beneficial basis unless it is integrated with the overall development of India’s northeastern region. In that region, India’s security considerations and fears of China swamping both economically and militarily, in the remote eventuality of aggressive push to back up its territorial claims in Arunachal Pradesh, weigh heavily on India’s developmental projects. India senses Myanmar’s uneasiness in its heavy economic dependence and strategic proximity with China, but is not in a position to meet the Chinese challenge satisfactorily. This provides additional reason for India to support Myanmar’s greater engagement with ASEAN and the international community, bundling it gently towards democratic consolidation. Unlike the US and the UK, India is acutely aware of the complexity of democratic challenge in Myanmar, which is intricately linked to its ethnic conflict. The divide between the ethnic groups and the democratic forces has always been exploited by Myanmar’s military leaders. Unless this divide is bridged through a viable federal formula acceptable to both the democratic forces and the ethnic groups, prospects of real and stable democracy in Myanmar will remain dim. India needs to avoid any direct and offensive involvement in the conflict between the state and the ethnic groups and instead persuade the democratic forces and the ethnic groups to draw closer to each other. Aung San Suu Kyi’s proposal for a second Panglong dialogue and agreement deserve careful consideration by all concerned. In 1947, the first Panglong accord between the Burmans and the ethnic groups had laid the parameters of federal devolution of power. India and ASEAN must join hands in impressing upon the new regime and all internal stake-holders that rebuilding the national consensus on ethnic issue will serve every ones interests on a lasting basis. (A noted academician and former Indian Ambassador to Laos, the author is Visiting Research Professor at Institute of South Asian Studies, Singapore) June 2011
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EXCERPTS
IPKF QUIT SRI LANKA My Days in Sri Lanka by Lakhan Mehrotra is a recollection of an Indian Ambassador’s life in Colombo at the height of the strife in the island nation. Some excerpts from a riveting account of the Indian Army’s exit from that country ON 1 June, 1989 President Premadasa made a d r a m a t i c announcement. He said, within a day or two he would request Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi to withdraw Indian PeaceAuthor- Lakhan Mehrotra Keeping Force Har Anand Publishers, (IPKF) by July Pages-254, Price-`595 end. It was his Year of Publication-2011 desire, he said, that the last Indian soldier should be out of Sri Lanka by then. The IPKF had come to his country at the request of his predecessor, Mr. Jayewardene and that it had made sacrifices in its efforts to help it. However, he went on to say rather sarcastically that IPKF could help Sri Lanka further by simply going away! The President was aware that the national sentiment at that time generally was with him on this point including the militant voices of the Janata Vimukthi Perarnuna comprising the Sinhala ultras and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil “Eelam” who were dead opposed to the continued presence of IPKF in the country. For maximum impact, he chose the religious ceremony at Battarmulla to ask the Indian Peace-Keeping Force to quit his country. While calling on the IPKF to leave, he cautioned his people to do nothing that www.geopolitics.in
would obstruct the return of the IPKF to India within the next eight weeks. In making that announcement, the President of Sri Lanka had taken no note of India’s sensitivities in the matter. In New Delhi’s eyes, he stood in breach of diplomatic horns and courtesies on a matter of mutual concern, especially because the IPKF was inducted into Sri Lanka with reference to India’s obligations under THORNY SETTLEMENT: Rajiv Gandhi and J R Jayawardene signing the Indo-Lankan Peace Accord (1987) a bilateral agreement, the 1987 Accord. had done in the instant case, too. The question of deinduction of IPKF had As I reported the statement to the Indian been a subject of discussion between the Foreign office, I was promptly advised to two governments and India was already meet the Sri Lankan Head of State as soon as committed to it. Sri Lanka’s President knew possible and impress upon him the risks of that well. The Government of India had public diplomacy and the advantages on the drawn up a schedule for IPKF’s deinduction contrary of realising his objective by mutual by the year end and shared it with the Sri consultation. I was asked to remind him of Lankan government. Only recently India’s Narasimha Rao’s invitation to Ranjan WijerExternal Affairs Minister, Shri Narasimha atne and inform him that it was still on the Rao, had invited his Sri Lankan counterpart, table. I conveyed the reaction of the Indian Ranjan Wijeratne to New Delhi to discuss Government to President Premadasa. In the schedule further. reply he explained his compulsions to me There was, therefore, no scope for the Sri rather than express any regrets or alter his Lankan leader to issue a public “ultimatum” course. He said he desperately wanted to for the IPKF to be withdrawn from the country bring the JVP to the negotiating table like within eight weeks as he had done. The Presithe LTTE with whom the first phase of negodent was aware no doubt of all the facts of the tiations had already concluded. case but he had chosen to act at Battaramulla The former were still not heeding his call in his own style. He was quite unpredictable for peaceful negotiations but, on the conby nature. He was also prone to take risks and trary, had enlarged their operations which often played for high stakes. That is what he
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g had spread from the south to the northcentral and north-western parts of the country. The President added that of late the JVP had claimed some success in the Northeast as well, an area under IPKF’s jurisdiction, and something drastic had to be done to bring them around. JVP’s key demand which they had been making persistently and most forcefully was for IPKF’s withdrawal and if he responded positively to it and publicly, they would perhaps move from brutal violence, which had been their wont, to talks. Hence his Battarmulla statement, explained the President. I told President Premadasa that his attempt to mollify JVP at the cost of IPKF and his announcement for it to withdraw before July end were not acceptable to India. I said it was particularly so since he knew that the Government of India had already drawn up the schedule for its deinduction by the year end and his Foreign Minister had been duly invited to New Delhi for further discussions in the matter. He said what had prompted him to make his announcement was the death of a senior police officer at JVP’s hands in the heart of Colombo just the previous day and the fact that the van carrying the advance guard of Prime Minister Wijetunge had been held up on its way north of Colombo by a crowd of pro-JVP students and its contents looted. He also read out to me the threat issued by the JVP Chief to the “Indian imperialists in Sri Lanka and those who had business connections with India”. The latter had been advised in the strongest possible terms to sever every connection with India by June 14. The JVP Chairman had referred to that demand as a JVP “order” as though he was heading a government. I asked the President about his reaction to that “order.” I remarked that it was rather curious that the President followed up on his Battaramulla announcement with a letter to Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi on second of June, true to his public promise. The letter was delivered by Sri Lanka’s Foreign Secretary Bernard Tilakrarne to the Prime Minister in New Delhi as his Special Envoy after the example of SK Singh, India’s Foreign Secretary who had delivered a communication personally to the Sri Lankan President a month ago as Prime Minister’s Special Envoy. The President’s letter set out the date for IPKF’s withdrawal as 29 July and requested the Prime Minister to have the IPKF carry that out. In reply the Prime Minister told the Special Envoy that the Sri Lankan President had unilaterally decided to end IPKF’s mission in Sri Lanka in less than eight weeks of www.geopolitics.in
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EXCERPTS
UNWELCOME PEACEKEEPERS: Indian troops waiting to board a Mi-8 equipped with rocket pods for an assault mission in Jaffna his public announcement; that India had not been consulted about it beforehand and that he was not a party to the President’s decision. Prime Minister’s verbal remarks implied that the Government of India was under no obligation to go by it. Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi left the matter at that, instead of replying formally to the President’s letter. Lack of a formal response from him caused the President serious loss of face and great anguish. The fear in Sri Lanka was
‘PREMADASA WAS QUITE UNPREDICTABLE AND WAS PRONE TO TAKE RISKS FOR HIGH STAKES’ that the Prime Minister might not write to the President at all in response to his letter. The President realised that he could not execute his decision for the IPKF to withdraw as he wanted without India’s cooperation. He had put himself in a bind and his political adversaries at home were delighted at his predicament while regretting the setback his actions had caused to Indo-Sri
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Lankan relations. In an attempt to resolve the logjam, I decided to meet Sirisena Cooray, a senior adviser to the President. He used to be Minister of Housing and Construction in President Premadasa’s Cabinet earlier and had the reputation of being his close confidant. He carried his office on his palm having no axe to grind and was not given to emotions. In a world thick with opportunists he was known to be a man of principle. He was also one of those in the President’s cabinet who had stood for maintaining a strong link with India, but without turning a rebel against him unlike his colleague Gamini Dissanayake. I met Cooray on 11 June. The sagacious politician asked me about Rajiv Gandhi’s reaction to President Premadasa’s Battarmulla statement and to his letter of 2 June. I told him frankly that they had embarrassed the Prime Minister in the extreme and embittered a good relationship. I said that the Prime Minister had been looking forward to the new President of Sri Lanka sustaining traditionally good ties with India and to a further flowering of Indo-Sri Lankan relations. Instead, the new President had administered him a shock, going off at a tangent on the most crucial issue affecting those relations at the moment. Lakhan Mehrotra, a career Foreign Service Officer, was India’s Ambassador in Sri Lanka from April 1989 to June 1990. (Excerpted with permission of the publisher) June 2011
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POWER ON RENT
W
e all know why Pakistan wants Afghanistan to provide it the so-called strategic depth against its “eternal enemy”, India. However, we overlook how Pakistan is offering itself as the strategic depth of China vis-à-vis India and the West. It is literally begging Beijing to use Pakistani territory and assets. Of course, letting its territory has been Pakistan’s biggest source of income over the years. If it gets generous military and economic assistance worth billions of dollars from the United States, it is because it permitted the Americans to use Pakistani land and air for war-efforts against, first the then Soviet Union, and now Islamic terrorism in Afghanistan. But with the US worrying, of late, over Pakistan’s duplicity in fighting the Taliban and al-Qaeda and threatening to cut off aid to Islamabad, Pakistan is turning to its “all-weather” friend, China. As it is, China, the main source behind Pakistan’s rising missile power and nuclear arsenals, has already emerged as a major Prakash supplier of conventional arms. Over 40 per cent of China’s arms exports are destined for Pakistan. China has jointly developed the JF-17 Thunder (known as FC-1 Fierce Dragon in China) multi-role fighter plane with Pakistan. China has been selling weapons systems such as the Chengdu J-10 fighter planes and Zulfiquar class F-22P frigates. Bilateral security cooperation has also extended to include the training of Pakistani defence personnel, the sharing of military intelligence, and the holding of joint military and counterterrorist exercises. In fact, it is through Pakistan that China, the best in the reverse-engineering business, gains access to the American military systems. The manner in which the news was regulated on the “Shaheen 1,” the joint exercises between the Pakistani Air Force (PAF) and the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) in March, underscored this point. The Americans were concerned that the PAF may have deployed its fleet of advanced US-built F-16 Fighting Falcons alongside PLAAF combat aircraft. In addition to potentially exposing sensitive US technology to Beijing, the PLAAF could also gain great insights into the operating performance of the aircraft in relation to its own. The PAF currently boasts a fleet of 63 F-16s of different variants (45 A/Bs and 18 C/Ds) in its inventory and is negotiating to get more. There have been even speculations that Pakistan seriously considered allowing China to access remnants of a secret US stealth helicopter, Black Hawk, which went down during the raid against bin Laden in Abbottabad, thus allowing Beijing a firsthand look into the latest stealth technology employed by the US military. Eventually it did not happen as the Americans were very particular in taking back the remnants of the helicopter. Be that as it may, Pakistan has been wooing China in many other ways. Chinese firms are now well entrenched www.geopolitics.in
in Pakistan’s strategic sectors, especially in the energy, infrastructure, heavy engineering, information technology, mining and defence industries sectors. Pakistan has persuaded China to see it as a key energy and trade conduit linking China with Central Asia and West Asia. The Chinese have undertaken a major effort to develop a “National Trade Corridor” consisting of thousands of miles of modern railroads and highways, including the Karakoram Highway, which connects the two countries via the Khunjrab Pass. They also built the deepwater port at Gwadar, on Pakistan’s Arabian Sea coast, where Islamabad has now “invited” them to install a naval base. The invitation followed Pakistani Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani’s four-day visit to China, which commenced on May 17 (the third series of meetings between Gilani and Chinese leaders in less than 17 months, exemplifying the extent to which Islamabad counts on Beijing for support). Upon Gilani’s return, Pakistan’s Defence Minister Chaudhary Ahmed Mukhtar told the press that durNanda ing the visit, “We have asked our Chinese brothers to please build a naval base at Gwadar.” If established, the facility would represent China’s first overseas military base and would support Chinese naval operations throughout the Persian Gulf and Indian Ocean. Having a naval base at Gwadar could assist with replenishment, refueling and other logistical support to the PLA Navy, which, since 2008, has been present in the Gulf of Aden region to guard its ever-increasing commercial shipping fleets. Possessing an overseas naval base near Central Asia, West Asia and Africa could also assist China to project military power and sustain forward military operations in other military contingencies in a region from which it imports much of its oil, natural gas and other raw materials. As it is, given its expanding maritime interests, China is rapidly expanding and modernising its Navy, both technologically and manpower-wise. It is recruiting highly educated and talented personnel to operate its impressive array of new weapon systems. Xia Ping, head of the Navy Personnel Department, has stated recently that the PLA Navy is seeking to recruit more than 2,000 Ph.D. degree holders in the next five years. The idea is to ensure that the Navy has highly educated officers “to develop a command of informationisation, system warfare and to raise the Navy’s capabilities to conduct informationised warfare”. Viewed thus, Pakistan’s design to let its territory for developing a Chinese naval base has significant geopolitical implications. So far, China does not have a military base outside its own territory. Now, if China, on Pakistan’s request, reverses its “no foreign bases” doctrine for years, India has to ponder over a counter-strategy.
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prakashnanda@newsline.in June 2011
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