Geopolitics_october_2010

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“OTHERS” IN INDIA-CHINA AFFAIRS

geopolitics VOL I, ISSUE VI, OCTOBER 2010 RS 100

D E F E N C E D I P L O M A C Y S E C U R I T Y

THE SAD SAGA OF

ARTILLERY

INDIAN OCEAN

NAVAL CHALLENGES MAOISTS’

TRUE COLOUR

COMBATING HEIGHTS With high mountains likely to become the future battle fields, the importance of attack-helicoptors for India has grown manifold

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On the combat mode COVER STORY P36

Combat helicopters can give a major fillip to the Indian defence armoury. GEOPOLITICS takes a hard look at their present roles and prospects.

PERSPECTIVE (P12)

FOCUS (P18)

UNDERLYING DANGERS

THE BIG PICTURE

In order to face the emerging military hardware-nuclear-missile nexus between China and Pakistan, there is now an urgent need for devising a comprehensive military doctrine.

In the larger context of the geopolitics of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia, Kashmir’s territorial integrity is of paramount importance.

SCRUTINY (P33)

DEF BIZ (P30)

INTERNAL SECURITY (P50)

Still deficient

Mismatch galore

Dastardly acts

Red-tapism is resulting in the weakening of India’s artillery firepower, thereby keeping the Indian Army on the backfoot.

Will Light Combat Aircraft ‘Tejas’ now be powered by foreign engines while keeping the indigenous Kaveri engine on hold?

Fake encounters are giving the lawmakers sleepless nights as innocent people are often being targeted.

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October 2010

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ROGUE ELEMENTS (P54)

NURTURED BONHOMIE (P62)

Contrary to popular belief, Maoist violence has little to do with tribal welfare.

Growing India-South Africa relations underscore the importance of Africa.

TRUST DEFICIT (P67)

INDIA CALLING (P28)

Neighbours surrounding India and China are contributing to the growing mistrust between them.

Woolf P Gross of Northrop Grumman talks about his company’s future plans and programmes in India.

DIPLOMACY (P58)

FAILING STATE-OF-AFFAIRS Failed states in South Asia, as unveiled in the latest annual report (2010) on the Failed States Index (FSI), are making India jittery. It needs friendly constituencies in each of these countries

GLOBAL EYE (P6)

g GEOPOLITICS

'LITTORAL' INDIAN OCEAN

Editor-in-Chief

K SRINIVASAN

THE INDIAN OCEAN LITTORAL

Editor

STATES ARE KEEPING THE INDIAN

PRAKASH NANDA

NAVY ON THE TOES. THE

Publishing Director

CHALLENGES OF GUARDING THE

ROHIT GOEL

INDIAN OCEAN REQUIRE GREATER INTROSPECTION.

Director (Corporate Affairs)

RAJIV SINGH Conceptualised and designed by Newsline Publications Pvt. Ltd., from D-11 Basement, Nizamuddin (East), New Delhi -110 013, Tel: +91-11-41033381-82 for NEWSEYE MEDIA PVT. LTD. Managing Editor: TIRTHANKAR GHOSH All information in GEOPOLITICS is derived from sources we consider reliable. It is passed on to our readers without any responsibility on our part. Opinions/views expressed by third parties in abstract or in interviews are not necessarily shared by us. Material appearing in the magazine cannot be reproduced in whole or in part(s) without prior permission. The publisher assumes no responsibility for material lost or damaged in transit. The publisher reserves the right to refuse, withdraw or otherwise deal with all advertisements without explanation. All advertisements must comply with the Indian Advertisements Code. The publisher will not be liable for any loss caused by any delay in publication, error or failure of advertisement to appear.

Owned and published by K Srinivasan, 4C Pocket-IV, Mayur Vihar, Phase-I, Delhi-91 and printed by him at Nutech Photolithographers, B-240, Okhla Industrial Area, Phase-I, New Delhi-110020.

Readers are welcome to send their feedback at geopolitics@newsline.in.

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Cover Design: Jitendra Rawat

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gONLOOKER Top Honours A DIVYA (21) received the ‘Sword’ from the Chief of Army Staff, General V K Singh, on September 18 during the passing-out parade of the Chennai-based Officers Training Academy (OTA), an honour given to the best all-round cadet.

This is the first time in the history of the armed forces that a woman cadet has received the highest award in training, the “Sword of Honour”. Divya has also bagged three gold medals in academics.

Divya is among the 70 woman cadets and 157 gentleman cadets to be commissioned into the Army as short service commissioned officers. As a matter of rule, the sword usually goes to those opting for Infantry, armoured corps, and mechanised infantrycombat arms of the Army. But these are not open to women, who were first commissioned in 1992, and therefore they were never in the race for the sword.

In that sense this is again a first. and since these branches are not open for women officers, therefore they were never considered for the sword. However, Chief of Army Staff Gen V K Singh said: “Women have a role in the Army. If you are looking at actual combat, I think we have to think more deeply about it.” No surprise, there is a deep debate at the moment on this issue.

AFSPA* TORRENT We will take a decision after taking into confidence all major political parties.

There is no question of any delay. The Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) has carefully assessed all aspects of the situation and decided to consult other political parties.

A K ANTHONY Defence Minister

A soldier to perform his duty deserves all the legal protection that he can get. I am sure the government is sensitised to this problem and whatever decision they will take I am sure it will be the correct one.

P V NAIK Air Chief Marshal

Everybody has a different opinion about it and I think our leadership is considering it in all aspects. It is not something which is arbitrary and I think the Government will take a correct decision on what is to be done about it. The Army had no role in deciding on the continuance of the AFSPA in J&K.

GENERAL V K SINGH Chief of Army Staff

*ARMED FORCES SPECIAL POWERS ACT

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O N L O O K E R

SHOPPING SPREE INDIA BOUGHT more Russian weapons last year than any other country, and recent deals seem likely to consolidate that status, Alexander Fomin, the deputy director of the Russian Federal Service for Military and Technical Cooperation said recently. A bilateral 2009 agreement set broad goals for military and technical cooperation, Fomin said.

India and Russia have ended preliminary talks over an accord to jointly develop fifthgeneration fighter and will each pledge $6 billion to build an aircraft to challenge U.S. F-22 Raptor. The accord is expected to be signed in December when the Russian President Dmitry

accounting for 54.4 per cent, or $15.16 billion, of the Russian foreign defence orders portfolio for this period, according to the centre. Vietnam’s orders for this period come second in size, reaching $3 billion. Indian Air Force plan to procure 59 Mi-17 (helicopters in addition to the 80 ordered from Russia in 2008. Rosoboron export confirmed to journalists the ongoing talks and the 2008 contract, but refused to disclose details other than saying that India will start receiving the first helicopter by year’s end.

Analysts here estimate that 139 Mi-17s would cost about $2 billion.

On Sept. 9, Russia and India signed an

assembled by the HAL. Experts estimate the price tag for each Su-30 fighter to be at about $40 million.

But that’s not all with two other Presidents — US President Barack Obama and French President Nicholas Sarkozy — coming before the year end, there are other deals in the pipeline as well. ❁ France is all set to get the over $2.1-billion Mirage-2000 fighter upgrade contract, India is likely to shell out over $6 billion to join the Russian Sukhoi T-50 PAK-FA fifth-generation fighter aircraft project. ❁ 10 C-17 Globemaster-III giant strategic airlift aircraft, which will come for upwards of

Medvedev visits India. India surpassed China in 2007 with purchases of Russian arms worth $1.5 billion. In 2008, Algeria pulled ahead of India. But in 2009, New Delhi regained the lead, importing Russian arms worth $1.78 billion, twice as much as China’s $848 million, according to the Center for Analysis of International Arms Trade, a local think tank.

For the nearest four years — from 2010 to 2013 — India will remain the biggest client,

agreement to set up a joint venture to codevelop a multi-role transport aircraft to replace the Indian Air Force’s obsolete An-12s within the next decade, Fomin told reporters.

Each country pledged $300 million to the effort to develop a 2,500-km range aircraft that can carry 20 tonnes of cargo. Talks are also going on with India over buying 42 Su-30MKI fighter jets. India has already ordered 230 Su-30MKI assembly kits from Irkut, which are being

$3 billion, under the American Foreign Military Sales programme are on course to be signed when Obama arrives. The US is now increasingly cornering a major chunk of the lucrative Indian defence market. After $2.1 billion for eight P-8I long-range maritime reconnaissance aircraft inked in 2009 everyone is looking at the C-17 contract. India, in fact, may even go for another six C-17s after the first 10.

Defining the future FORMER US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger believes that Afghanistan’s neighbours would have to step up to help define the future of the country, rather than depend on unilateral US efforts. After all, countries in the region including China, India, Pakistan and even Iran could be affected if Afghanistan were to end up with a fundamentalist regime, he told a conference organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. “A unilateral American role cannot be a long-term solution. A long-term solution must involve a combination, a consortium of countries in defining, protecting and guaranteeing a definition of a statehood for Afghanistan,” said the 87-year-old former Secretary of State and added, “While the United States is so engaged, there may be many countries that believe that

they can wait. I would argue that starting this effort soon is the best way and maybe the only way to bring this to a conclusion.” Kissinger pointed out that there are many countries in the world that have a more immediate security interest in the future of Afghanistan than the United States. “Not an abstract interest ... but a national security interest,” he said and elaborated, “The presence of a terrorist drugproducing state in that geographic location will affect every country(in the region). Even Iran as a Shiite country, if it can ever move to think of itself as a nation rather than a cause, can have no interest in a fundamentalist regime. All these countries. India, Pakistan, Iran and China) have more vital interest in Afghanistan than does the United States,” noted Kissinger.

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GLOBALEYE

WHO RULES THE INDIAN OCEAN? OPERATION MALABAR: Indo-US joint naval exercises off the Indian Ocean

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The Indian Ocean is critical for Africa, Asia and the Pacific Rim. But there are two navies that are increasingly going to rule these waters — India and China. ABHIJIT BHATTACHARYA analyses the possibilities and the potential of policing these crucial sea lanes.

T

ECHNICALLY THOUGH the number of Indian Ocean littoral states (including the island nations) stand at 24, a third thereof only could be considered to be maritime nations. Of them again the most of the African states like Mozambique (1334 nautical mile coastline), Tanzania (767 nautical miles), Djibouti (170 nautical miles) and Madagascar (2608 nautical miles) have virtually no naval force at all. And the best or worst — part is that Somalia does not figure in the naval bible Jane’s Fighting Ships 2010-2011. Thus, except South Africa (1512 nautical mile), which has got a comparatively moderate and active navy, the entire east coast of the African continent, facing the Indian Ocean, is bereft of any maritime security and lies at the mercy of a determined and desperate marine adventurer/piracy, should the situation go nasty. In short, the Indian Ocean is virtually a no-go lake for African states owing to their incapability rather than any external pushand-punish factor.

Understandably, therefore, the vast landmass of Africa seems to be missing out on the opportunity to use the ocean thereby leaving it to those who wish to make their presence felt from the continents other than Africa!

Hence sails the vessels of four continents from Asia, Australia, Europe and North America.

However, there exists a huge hiatus amongst the various competing navies in the ocean pertaining to quantity and quality, mission capability and priority thereby fixing the strategic goals difficult for the bigger as well as the aspiring powers and the allies thereof.

Thus Asia’s Yemen has a navy operating from its 1030-nautical mile shoreline but most of the ships thereof are not high-sea worthy owing to age, maintenance problem and the civil war. Yemen’s sailors do not get to see action in the ocean as such.

Up north, the Sultanate of Oman, however, has a reasonably modest, yet modern, navy owing to its steady source of cash flow from energy sector. For its 1129-nautical mile coast line Muscat’s navy is served by 4200 sailors and a fleet of British, French and Singapore made ships. Owing to strategic location, on

the inlet/outlet of the world oil warehouse, the Persian Gulf, Omani ports could very well be the future hub of competing fleets in the Indian Ocean.

Though the deep inside the Persian Gulf, all naval vessels (frigate or corvette) of the UAE (a combination of seven: Abu Dhabi, Ajman, Dubai, al-Fujairah, Ras al Khaimah, Sharjah and Umm al-Qaiwain) have combat range and capability of above 4000 nautical miles. And that makes the force combat-ready and sea-worthy in the deep ocean.

The assets of the Iranians are its three Russian made Kilo-class submarine and the four British origin frigates all of which can resort to fleet-in-being (equivalent to guerrilla warfare in the sea) tactics in the highly volatile environment of the Persian Gulf where tankers and terrorists may move neck and neck without being seen or detected by either, and with all the possibility of starting an unintentional kinetic action.

Of the five South Asian navies of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka, only the fleet of New Delhi appears capable enough to be deployed to the blue waters of the Indian Ocean and beyond owing essentially to its increasingly high-profile and surging economy. Understandably, therefore, the grey and green water-operating ships of yesteryears now have an enhanced mission targets which spans from fluttering flags to suppressing terror and protecting trade far away from the 4104-nautical mile shoreline of New Delhi.

Interestingly, the mission target of Pakistani navy too appears to have undergone slow and steady transformation ever since Pakistan got mauled in the Bangladesh war of 1971. From one port navy, Islamabad now has gone a long way to clutter its four ports of Karachi, Port Qasim, Ormara and Gwadar with its own destroyers, frigates and corvettes to host fleet at the Chinese-made port of Gwadar. The idea is simple. To keep Indians under check and escalate Indo-Pak bilateral tension from Srinagar to the sea by inducting a third party (Beijing) as an effective countervailing force to Indian navy’s expanding and exploring mission in the Indian Ocean.

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Since Indian Ocean is important to all littoral states the urge for a surge in the marine activity on the part of the stakeholders is understandable. Thus Sri Lanka (723 nautical miles) has a navy of 35148 sailors along with a bewildering variety of fast, agile, small and highly manoeuvrable boats, acquired mainly from China, Israel and South Korea, to counter the long-drawn civil war fighters.

Further east, Bangladesh’s fleet strength and future plan revolve round the Chinese supply line to protect its 313-nautical mile coastline and the potential flashpoints at short border with military-ruled Myanmar.

Bangladesh, however, has its own material, monetary and managerial limitations to operate to the blue water ocean thereby keeping its naval activities confined to its 313 nautical miles at present and banking its future developments on the rising profile and power of Beijing in world military, commercial and political arena.

Myanmar, the south-eastern neighbour of Dhaka, has a navy for its 1042-nautical mile coast-line, but its quality and capability to operate far away from the land line continue to be mediocre and limited. Yangon has the required number of bases to operate from but lacks the wherewithal owing to limited combat radius of its vessels; aging and logistics problem pertaining to spares and maintenance. It will certainly take a long time for Myanmar to attain blue water capability.

Compared to West Asian and Indian continental countries from South Asia, the navies of Thailand (1739-nautical mile shore line) and Malaysia (2527-nautical mile coast line) have limited blue water capability as most of the bigger vessels thereof have operational range anywhere between 3000 and 6000 nautical miles. However, both Malaysia and Thailand also have to deal with a comparatively proximate sea lanes of Strait of Malacca, the South China Sea, the Sulu and Celebes seas, Gulf of Thailand and with the Andaman Sea thereby keeping the bulk of their fleet in shallow water and leaving a comparatively smaller elements of the armada to operate to the remote corner of the Indian Ocean.

Interestingly, whereas Malaysia has a total October 2010

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‘

In the first two years of the IONS, especially as a result of the very useful discussions in the symposium at New Delhi, followed by the “ Conclave of Chiefs” at Goa, we collectively charted a course for this maritime construct to grow and fructify. Looking ahead, the oceans around us are gaining new found importance as each day goes by and there is no doubt that the current century is the ‘century of the seas’. Trade, indeed has shaped our world and will continue to be a major factor always. Since about 90 per cent of global trade transits over the seas and oceans? And this figure is not likely to change very much?

We would all remain committed to them.

Maritime trade in the Indian Ocean, as all present here know well, has been integral to our economic, cultural and civilisational linkages for millennia. Even as we have gathered here, the voyage of the “ Jewel of Muscat,” a yacht built to authentically replicate its forebears, retraces the route taken by adventurous sailors from Arab lands all the way to South East Asia. Centuries later, the types of ships have changed; the flow of resources,

“ INDIAN OCEAN LITTORAL STATES HAVE WITNESSED RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH IN RECENT YEARS. THESE HIGH LEVELS OF GROWTH ARE TRANSLATING INTO INCREASED INTRAREGIONAL TRADE AND GLOBAL TRADE, A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF WHICH IS SEA BORNE. “ MANMOHAN SINGH

especially energy, minerals and merchandise is of a volume unimaginable to those intrepid sailors. Today, some of the most critical highways of global trade are in the Indian Ocean Region. Two thirds of the world’s oil shipments, one third of its bulk cargo, and half the world’s container traffic passes through the expanse of the Indian Ocean. The world’s pre?eminent energy and trade seaway, the Indian Ocean, will matter even more in future.

We can all draw comfort through the coordinated and cooperative efforts that have been possible in the piracy-affected areas of the Western Indian Ocean. Navies of the Strait of Malacca littoral have also demonstrated how, at the regional level, armed robbery at sea has been effectively countered. Piracy, however, seems to be on the spread and therefore, I would suggest that more needs to be done by the navies represented here. Undoubtedly, there are constraints. These constraints could be due to capacities; distances at which navies may need to deploy; the need for navies to undertake their own national tasking and the need to keep some of our other professional skills honed in good order. Many navies represented here are contributing to and benefiting from information sharing in the Gulf of Aden

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Singapore does mean business, tying up with various Asian and western navies to keep the waterways free from terror on trade as Singapore is one of the biggest and important hubs of international transit of transport, trade and technology.

Singapore’s neighbour Indonesia, straddling the Equator, consists of more than 13670 islands with 29550 coast line facing the South China Sea, the Celebes Sea, the Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Understandably, therefore, the navy of Jakarta has both combat range and robustness. Technically though Indonesia’s is not blue water navy, its combat deployment ability nevertheless is better than most third world water warriors and warship.

Amongst the Indian Ocean littorals, Australia occupies a pre-eminent position owing to its massive landmass and sparse manpower. Hence Australian security is wholly and solely dependent on pre-empting all moves from the sea at a safe and respectable distance from its 13910-nautical mile land line. Little wonder that it is the changed perceptions of China which are driving Canberra from the Western Pacific to the Indian Ocean. Australia now realises that “China’s rising ability to project power would challenge the maritime dominance of Asian coastal approaches by the USA” .

and the Horn of Africa, much of it through regulated but unclassified networks. Such sharing partially addresses issues of capacity by helping, through coordination and cooperation, more optimal deployment of the resources at hand. In years to come, Nature has its own ways of sending us signals for greater inter-operability, shorter response times and ability to be ready to respond with assistance when she shows her fury. The Eastern IOR littoral and the Indian sub-continent are especially prone to frequent devastation by cyclones, earthquakes and, yes, tsunamis. I think that the tsunami of 26 Dec 2004, in some ways, symbolized the unitary nature of the Indian Ocean itself. It originated closer to the Eastern boundaries of the Ocean but its fury was felt, thousands of miles away, along the coast of Somalia. This wave was responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths and for many more to be homeless across many countries. Its devastation touched most of us.

Today, there is a need for a new wave of cooperation, coordination, and collective effort so that we are better equipped to respond.

‘

of 19561 sailors, Bangkok’s 74000-man strong navy is one of the biggest in the east of Suez Canal, second only to Beijing’s 250000. Thailand’s deployment of naval diplomats also reveals as to where its potential interest lies and what could be its future plan of action in the sea. Understandably, Bangkok’s naval attaches operate to London, Paris, Madrid, Rome and Washington D.C. in the west as all four are traditional maritime powers with strong naval industrial base manufacturing fighting ships. Further presence of Thai Captains in Canberra, New Delhi, Beijing and Tokyo reveal their concern to engage the giants of Asia and Australia to create a common cause in water, should the need arise.

And finally, a strong naval nose makes it sense to engage neighbours like Singapore, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar, Vietnam and Cambodia.

Understandably, therefore, Bangkok’s naval priority lies in its neighbourhood and not beyond per se.

The 247-square mile state of Singapore’s 104-nautical mile coastline is a classic case of a city possessing a formidable navy of 4 submarines, 6 frigates and 6 corvettes thereby giving it a solid maritime machine to interdict and intercept any hostile element in the vicinity of the various choke points along the north-eastern rim of the Indian Ocean. And

(Excerpts from Admiral Nirmal Verma’s speech at the second IONS meeting at Abu Dhabi)

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g GLOBALEYE One of the major stakeholders today of the Indian Ocean operations undoubtedly is the Indian Navy which started growing from the 1980. This is logical and runs to reason. India’s trade and commerce transcends across all sides, east and west; and the far flung territorial assets along with the real-time terrorist attack are reality of contemporary scenario. Ocean is no longer tranquil owing to the latest piracy threat Indian stemming from punt land, the semi-autonomous region at the tip of the Horn of Africa, between Somalia’s central and southern sectors and the secessionist state of Somali land to the north-west.

However, a concerted effort by the international naval forces in the Gulf of Aden, the gateway from the Indian Ocean to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal led pirates to shift operations further into the open expanses of the Indian Ocean, off the coasts of Kenya and Tanzania.

The latest success of the Indian naval destroyer INS Delhi in dealing with the piracy and saving the international mercantile marine once again emphasises the importance of an active navy which thus far existed as a comparatively peaceful force in the silent sea.

Not to be left behind in action stations of the distant sea, the present deployment of the Chinese navy to Indian Ocean goes with Beijing’s search for superiority to overcome its dismal inferior record of sea duty. Hence, the Chinese urge for a blue water navy is understandable. A growing commerce does require a growing navy for protection and security. Nevertheless one may also like to understand that a rising China is not averse to challenge both, a potential rival and an established ruler of the sea. Thus the present confidence of the Chinese navy in the Indian Ocean grows out of its past show of force to heckle the US navy in the sea around its own bases.

Thus, in October 2006, a Chinese submarine stalked USS Kitty Hawk and then surfaced within a torpedo’s firing range of it. In November 2007, the Chinese denied the USS Kitty Hawk Carrier strike group entry into Victoria Harbour (Hong Kong) when it was seeking a respite from building seas and deteriorating weather. In March 2009, a small detachment of PLA Navy fast attack mini-ships harassed the US surveillance ship the USNS Impeccable while it was openly conducting operations outside Beijing’s 12-nautical mile territorial limit in the South China Sea, blocking its way and pretending to ram it. Clearly China means business; a business in the ocean to extend and expand its influence and confront the existing sea order, Indian Ocean included, as the strength and confidence of Beijing navy increase by the day.

Thus China’s present posture is reminis-

BOTH MALAYSIA AND THAILAND ALSO HAVE TO DEAL WITH COMPARATIVELY PROXIMATE SEA LANES OF STRAIT OF MALACCA, THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, THE SULU AND CELEBES SEAS, GULF OF THAILAND AND WITH THE ANDAMAN SEA THEREBY KEEPING THE BULK OF THEIR FLEET IN SHALLOW WATER AND LEAVING COMPARATIVELY SMALLER ELEMENTS OF THE ARMADA TO OPERATE IN THE REMOTE CORNER OF THE INDIAN OCEAN.

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cent of the Japanese Imperial Navy’s rise, expansion and conquest of the Pacific in the 1930s-1940s and that of the Red Navy of the Soviet Union under its longest-serving Admiral Sergei Georgiyevich Gorshkov in the 1970s1980s. However, there is a difference. Japan, being an island state with a thin landmass, is devoid of resources and hence intrinsically incapable of a sustained hostile enterprise beyond a few years on its own steam. Conversely, USSR/Russia is a huge landmass with limited outlet to the sea and very challenging geographical barriers around its Arctic bases thereby putting a permanent brake on its maritime action in the ocean.

But China is the “ Geographical Pivot of History” (in the words of British geographer Holford Mackinder), “ might constitute the yellow peril to the world’s freedom” , as it is “ both a land power and a sea power” . With a “ blessed geography, economic dynamism, vast human resources and national assertiveness” — factors unknown and absent amongst its neighbours and rivals (barring India in head count) Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean is just a matter of time as various port facilities from the mouth of the Persian Gulf to mid-Indian Ocean and Dhaka, Yangon, Colombo bases get readied to ensconce the vessels and the sailors in due course.

Clearly, therefore, potential heat is being generated in the Indian Ocean. On the one hand, there exists a huge vacuum in the western coast of the ocean owing to absence of government and governance and on the other lies the danger zone of world terrorist headquarter and terror epicentre in and around Pakistan thereby making the navies aware of the lurking danger of the unknown threat and the invisible enemy. Further down, however, is the emerging economy and the surging navy of India and the 20th century growth centres of Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, Hong Kong and Taiwan thereby making the areas “ hot destination” for potential trouble makers. In between comes the island continent of Australia’s growing concern for the Indian Ocean and the Chinese urge to break through its traditional isolation. Amidst all these exciting development is the conspicuous absence of the Russian fleet in the Indian Ocean as was the case till the breakup of the Soviet Union in the 1990s. The US navy nevertheless continues to be the big brother of the Indian Ocean with its permanent operations centre at Singapore and Diego Garcia; at least as of now.

(The author is an alumnus of the National Defence College of India, Delhi and a Member of International Institute for Strategic Studies, London) October 2010

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g THE NUCLEAR

PANORAMA

CHINA

CANADA

FRANCE

GERMANY

JAPAN

2. Yes 3. Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

4. No 5. RMB 300 m

No C$ 75 m

No € 91.5 m

No ¥ 120 m

6. Up to RMB 800 million*

Up to C$ 75 million

€ 91.5 million

No € 2.5 billion 2.244 million € 2.5 billion

7. Up to RMP 800 million

Up to Parliament

Up to 175 million SDRs**

No

Up to Parliament

8. No

No C$ 75 million

125 million SDRs ‘Unlimited’

No

9. 1.1 billion RMB

125 million SDRs if BSC applies** 300 million SDRs w/BSC funds

1. 1986 Guo Han

1976 Act

1968 Act

1985 Act

1961 Act

Indemnity Agreement

"Unlimited"

NOTE 1. Nuclear liability law, currently in force, 2. Strict liability, 3. Channeling of liability exclusively to operator, 4. Right of recourse against supplier, 5. Operator’s insurance amount, 6. State guarantee/cover, 7. Additional State compensation, 8. Supplementary amount from international fund, 9. Legal liability limit

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SPREADSHEET!

g PANORAMA

S KOREA

RUSSIA

UK

USA

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

Yes Yes

No 50 billin Won

No £ 140 m

No US$ 12.50 b

Up to operator’s limit

Yes

` 1550 cr

Up to Parliament

No No amount specified Up to operator’s limit (when set) No amount specified

Bill being enacted Yes Liable: Suppliers/consultants Yes ` 1500 cr

Up to 175 million SDRs

No

No provision

No

No

125 million

Yes

300 million SDRs

No amount specified

300 million SDRs

US$ 12.59 b

Depends on ratifying CSC Liability capped at ` 2050 cr.

1969 Act

Up to 300 million SDRs

No law

1965 Act

1957 Act

INDIA

*Chinese currency is called Renminbi (people's money), often abbreviated as RMB. Issued by the People's Bank of China it is the sole legal tender for both the Chinese nationals and foreign tourists. The unit of Renminbi is yuan and the smaller, jiao and fen. **Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) are international foreign exchange reserve assets.[1] Allocated to nations by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a SDR represents a claim to foreign currencies for which it may be exchanged in times of need. ***For those Paris Convention States which are also party to the Brussels Supplementary Convention, additional compensation made up of public funds will be available to compensate victims of nuclear damage where the amounts under the Paris Convention are insufficient. The Paris convention was signed in 1960.

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EAGLE EYE: At the Line of Control with Pakistan

g GEOPOLITICS

PERSPECTIVE

I

GEARING UP FOR

CHALLENGES

With the nuclear-missile-military-hardware nexus between China and Pakistan posing a major strategic challenge, India needs a comprehensive military doctrine to meet the eventuality of a twofront war, observes GURMEET KANWAL

NDIA’ S UNSTABLE strategic environment, unresolved territorial and boundary disputes with China and Pakistan and continuing internal security challenges pose serious threats to national security. Multifarious external and internal security challenges are undermining India’ s economic rise and hampering plans for development. Hence, India needs a comprehensive military doctrine to deal with emerging threats and challenges, taking into account the likely conflict scenarios.

Future conventional conflict on the Indian sub-continent will flow out of unresolved territorial and boundary disputes with China along the unsettled border and over Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) with Pakistan. While the

probability of a conflict with China is low, transgressions across the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and patrol face-offs in no man’ s land are common. These could result in armed clashes leading to another border conflict. Such a conflict is likely to be limited in area and the application of force levels.

Though the conflict is likely to be predominantly a land battle, air power will need to be employed extensively, including attack helicopters and armed helicopters.

Extensive use will be made of artillery firepower from 155mm howitzers and long range rocket launchers. The Chinese may resort to the employment of conventionally-armed SRBMs against Indian forces, communications centres, logistics installations and choke

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points. Though a conflict at sea is highly unlikely in the 2020-25 time frame, the PLA Navy may be expected to begin operating in the northern Indian Ocean region by about 2015, ostensibly to safeguard China’ s sea lanes for oil, gas and trade. Consequently, Indian Navy ships are likely to be shadowed by PLA submarines and occasionally even by surface ships, particularly during naval exercises.

It has now emerged clearly that the Pakistan army is not letting the new civilian dispensation formulate foreign policy and govern in an autonomous manner. Hence, hostility towards India will remain a key objective of Pakistan’ s security policies. The present ceasefire along the LoC will hold only as long October 2010

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as it suits the Pakistan army’ s interests. The Pakistan army and ISI will continue to encourage, aid and abet infiltration across the LoC. The most likely conflict scenario is that of another Kargil-type misadventure. This time it may be executed with help from the sleeper cells of ISI-sponsored terrorist organisations such as LeT, JeM and Hizbul Mujahideen by physically occupying terrain features in remote areas like Hill Kaka and the Shamsabari range north of Bandipur. They may declare these the liberated zones. However, large-scale conflict is unlikely as India will once again exercise restraint. Ground and airdelivered firepower will be extensively employed. India may choose to strike across the LoC at carefully selected targets with its air force and long-range artillery.

Fighting on the LoC is likely to be limited in scope due to the nature of the mountainous terrain. Rear area security will pose a major challenge and will require large numbers of para-military personnel as terrorists will disrupt the move of army convoys and supplies.

In view of the fact that both India and Pakistan are nuclear-armed states, the probability of the conflict spilling over to the plains sector across the international boundary is low as that will enhance the risk of nuclear exchanges. In the maritime domain, the Pakistan navy will adopt a defensive posture.

However, the Pakistan navy will lose no opportunity to encourage and even abet terrorist strikes on Indian assets such as oil and gas rigs and shipping. The Pakistan navy is likely to operate with a greater degree of confidence once Chinese PLA navy ships begin to use the Gwadar port as a naval base.

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A low-grade insurgency will continue to fester in J&K despite serious government efforts at reconciliation. However, the situation in the north-eastern states will gradually improve due to socio-economic growth and political maturity, unless China once again begins to provide aid and assistance to militant outfits that are inimical to India’ s security interests. The worst internal security challenge over the next decade will come from the rising tide of Left Wing Extremism or Maoist/Naxalite terrorism, particularly if the state and central governments continue to waver in their approach. The Maoists will challenge the state by bringing small towns in the tribal belt under their political and security control. At this stage, the army will be called in to meet the exigency even though it neither has the numbers nor the wherewithal to intervene effectively over thousands of square kilometers of jungle-covered terrain. Countries inimical to India will exploit the situation by providing arms, ammunition, equipment and financial support to the Maoists through their external security agencies such as the ISI. Home-grown Indian jihadis are increasingly joining the pan-Islamic ‘ movement’ .

Groups like the Indian Mujahideen will become more sophisticated in their attacks.

They will be more difficult to apprehend as they will form cellular structures in which no terrorist will know more than two other people. Terrorists with software expertise may launch cyber attacks on computer-controlled communications, transportation, power and commercial networks to cripple the Indian economy. Incidents of maritime terrorism and chemical and biological terrorism will

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increase considerably. While the probability of nuclear terrorism is low, radiological dispersal devices (RDDs, ‘ dirty bombs’ ) may be used to spread panic and create hysteria. India will also need to enhance its vigil over its island territories as South-east Asian terrorist organisations may attempt to use these as secure bases. All of these emerging threats will require far greater intelligence effort than has been the case so far. Comprehensive interministerial, inter-departmental, inter-agency and inter-security forces coordination will be necessary to defeat the terrorists.

Though the probability of major conflict is low, if another conflict is thrust on India, China and Pakistan will collude with each other and act in concert. Hence, India must prepare for a two-front war. The collusive nuclear-missile-military hardware nexus between China and Pakistan poses a major strategic challenge to India. China is known to have provided direct assistance to Pakistan for its nuclear weapons programme, including nuclear warhead designs and enough HEU (highly enriched uranium) for at least two nuclear bombs. China transferred dual-use technology and materials for the development of nuclear weapons to Pakistan. China has also helped Pakistan to build a secret reactor to produce weapons-grade plutonium at the Chashma nuclear facility. China gave Pakistan M-9 and M-11 nuclear-capable ballistic missiles and has facilitated the transfer of Taepo Dong and No Dong ballistic missiles from North Korea to Pakistan. China and Pakistan have jointly developed a fighter aircraft — JF17 Thunder/ FC-1 Fierce — and a main battle tank — Al Khalid, besides other military hardware like anti-tank missiles.

China and India have failed to satisfactorily resolve their territorial and boundary dispute since the two nations fought a war over it in 1962 despite 14 rounds of talks between political interlocutors and many meetings of the Joint Working Group. Even the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has not been clearly demarcated on military maps and on the ground due to China’ s intransigence. Patrol face-offs are common and an armed clash could take place any time. If it is not contained quickly, such a clash could lead to another border conflict.

During the 1965 and 1971 India-Pakistan wars, China had made some threatening military manoeuvres in Tibet in support of Pakistan. It is also noteworthy that during the Kargil conflict in 1999, Chinese military advisers were reported to have been present at Skardu in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. Now it has been reported that between 7,000 and 11,000 Chinese troops are present in GilgitBaltistan in POK. China has “guaranteed Pakistan’ s territorial integrity” and in the words of President Hu Jintao, their friendship is “higher than the mountains and deeper than the oceans and sweeter than honey”. As part of its “string of October 2010

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g PERSPECTIVE pearls” strategy in the Indian Ocean, China has built a port for Pakistan at Gwadar on the Makran Coast. This port could be upgraded to a naval base for Chinese naval vessels with minimum effort. China is clearly engaged in the strategic encirclement of India.

Of late, while stability prevails at the strategic level, China has exhibited marked political, diplomatic and military aggressiveness at the tactical level. This has led to anxiety about Chinese intentions. Hence, Indian analysts have concluded that during a future Indian military conflict with China, Pakistan is likely to come to China’ s military aid and vice versa. While the ability to fight on two fronts may be aspirational rather than real at present, recognition of the need to prepare for

ber of “integrated battle groups” (IBGs; divisional-size forces) launching limited offensive operations to a shallow depth, to capture a long swathe of territory almost all along the international boundary. The success achieved by the IBGs could then be exploited by one or more Strike Corps. The captured territory would act as a bargaining chip to force Pakistan to wind down its institutional support to jihadi terrorism. The overall aim would also be to destroy the Pakistan army’ s war-waging potential through the application of asymmetric firepower from the ground (through longrange medium guns, rocket launchers and surface-to-surface and cruise missiles) and by way of massive air-to-ground battlefield air strikes.

meet a threat that can develop. As part of this, we talk about ‘ active defence’ . We also talk about proactive operations, which support active defence.”

Hence, it emerges that while the army has adopted various measures to overcome the difficulties of mobilisation, it follows that the Indian armed forces will take the initiative and the next war in the plains will be fought in the adversary’ s territory. HQ Integrated Defence Staff has formulated a joint doctrine for the Air-Land battle, for amphibious operations and for Indian Navy-Indian Air Force cooperation for joint operations in the maritime domain. These are ongoing efforts and military doctrine, which is dynamic by nature, is constantly reviewed and refined based on the

MAKING FRIENDS ALL AROUND : Pakistan’ s Gawdar Port (left) and Hambantota Port built with Chinese assistance. The Chinese idea is to stack up the IOUs all around the sub-continent such an eventuality will drive future doctrine, strategy and force structures. It was in this context that the then Army Chief, General Deepak Kapoor had made a statement during the HQ Army Training Command doctrine seminar in December 2009 that the Indian Army must prepare for a “two-front war”.

After the 2001-02 military stand-off with Pakistan and India’ s frustration at not being able to launch a swift military response, the Indian armed forces had begun to look for a new doctrine that would enable the country to achieve its political and military aims in a short war without running the risk of crossing Pakistan’ s nuclear red lines. Dubbed “Cold Start” by the then Army Chief, the doctrine was said to be a combination of offensive operations at two levels. Certain readjustments were carried out to enhance the offensive operations capability of “Pivot” corps (defensive or ground-holding corps) along the western border, both in terms of manoeuvre and firepower, so as to make it possible to launch offensive operations quickly. The aim was clearly to deny Pakistan the advantage of early mobilisation.

It is believed that the second element of the tentative doctrine conceptualised a num-

However, General V K Singh, the COAS, said in a recent interview to a TV news channel: “There is nothing called ‘ Cold Start’ … you have to warm up before you do something… As part of our overall strategy, we look at various contingencies. There are defensive and offensive operations. Our nation is committed to peaceful existence with others. We are not aggressors, so we look at how we will

ANOTHER KARGIL-TYPE MISADVENTURE MAY BE EXECUTED WITH HELP FROM THE SLEEPER CELLS OF ISISPONSORED TERRORIST ORGANISATIONS.

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emerging strategic environment and weapons acquisition and force structure changes effected by the adversaries, as well as the lessons learnt during large-scale exercises with troops.

Preparation for simultaneous war on two fronts will require the injection of large doses of capital expenditure for the acquisition of the necessary hardware. The present defence budget, pegged at less than 2.0 per cent of the country’ s projected GDP, cannot sustain the expenditure that will be necessary to prepare to face two major military adversaries simultaneously. It is, therefore, necessary for Indian diplomacy to ensure that the armed forces are never required to face two military adversaries simultaneously. And, if the Ministry of External Affairs cannot provide such a guarantee, India should be looking for a military alliance, despite the facts that Indian policy-makers dislike that term as not joining military alliances is a key element of India’ s foreign policy. A nation’ s foreign policy and national security policy must reflect the constraints within the prevailing strategic environment.

(The writer is Director, Centre for Land Warfare Studies, New Delhi) October 2010

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PERISCOPE

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NEW DELHI, SEOUL SIGN TWO MOU

HERALDING A new chapter in the history of defence cooperation and boost to strategic partnerships, India and South Korea have signed two landmark Memoranda of Understanding. The

INDIA-RUSSIA STRATEGIC PARTNERS RUSSIAN AIR Force commander-in-chief Alexander Zelin was effusive following his recent five-day visit to Delhi. India has always been and will remain Russia’s strategic partner said Zelin after the visit.

According to the military leader, Russia is prepared to arm the Indian Army with state-of-the-art weapons from their inventory. The General’s visit coincided with a meeting of the working group for bilateral military-technological cooperation. During the meeting Moscow and Delhi signed an agreement to set up a joint venture to develop and assemble a multipurpose trans-

MoUs were signed at the end of delegation-level talks led by Defence Minister A K Antony’s recent trip to Seoul. Mr. Antony is the first Indian Defence Minister during his visit South Korea.

The first MoU envisages exchange of defence-related experience and information; exchange of visits by military personnel and experts, including civilian staff associated with defence services; military education and training; exchange of visits of ships and aircraft; and conduct of military exercises. It also envisages cooperation in humanitarian assistance and international peace keeping activities.

The other MoU between the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and South Korea’s Defence Acquisition and Procurement Agency (DAPA) will be operational under the overarching umbrella of India-South Korea Defence Agreement. The MoU aims at identifying futuristic defence technology areas of mutual interest and pursuing R&D. It further envisages co-development and co-production of defence products with Indian industry through the DRDO. There will be joint Intellectual Property Right (IPR) on all products developed through this mechanism. Some areas of immediate interest include developing marine systems, electronics and intelligent systems.

Saraswat: Agni-V will be test-fired in 2011

port aircraft.

Russia and India will buy the plane for their own armed forces, and will also sell the aircraft to third countries.

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AGNI-V, the inter-continental ballistic missile being developed in India, will be test-fired in 2011, Director General of the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) V.K. Saraswat said recently Agni-V will be a three-stage solid fuelled missile that will carry a conventional nuclear warhead. It will reportedly have a range of more than 5,000 km. It will be a canisterised missile, providing it flexibility, to be launched from multiple platforms on land and sea.

October 2010

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g IAF UNVEILS DEDICATED INFO GRID Hanoi Defence

THE INDIAN Air Force has unveiled its own high-bandwidth digital information grid, better known as gigabyte digital information grid — the AFNET (Air Force Network), which will enable fighters and unmanned aerial vehicles to beam realtime pictures to the control room during operations.

The communication backbone, AFNET, would also come handy in the future to integrate IAF squadrons and bases with its own satellite as and when the satellite is put into the orbit. Though all the services are likely to have their own satellites in another 10-12 years time, the naval satellite is in an advanced stage of realisation. Aiming for the space for strategic reason, IAF, for the time being, plans to hire transponders on the naval satellite, which would be connected to the new communication backbone.

Other uses of AFNET will be stream-

ing in of video feed from UAV; sending of pictures from Phalcon airborne early warning and control system (AWACS) aircraft to the decision-makers on ground sitting hundreds of kilometres away and providing intelligence inputs from far-flung areas at central locations seamlessly.

The AFNET will replace the IAF's 1950 network. Besides internet protocol and satellite communications, the optical fibre cable based network will support line of sight radio links for metro cities and difficult terrains.

The AFNET is a result of an IT roadmap being followed by the defence ministry. While all three services are engaged in large scale automation and computer-based networking, IAF is the first to complete the project of interlinking major installations throughout the country on a high bandwidth network.

AFNET Project with an estimated expenditure of Rs 1077 Cr, comprises of Internet Protocol (IP) Multi Protocol Switching Protocol (MPLS) based Network with Optic Fibre Cables (OFC) as backbone.

BRAHMOS LIKELY TO BE INDUCTED INTO AIR FORCE BY 2013 LOW-FLYING SUPERSONIC cruise missile BrahMos could join the Indian Air Force by 2013, according to A. Sivathanu Pillai, CEO and Managing Director of BrahMos Aerospace Limited, an Indo-Russian joint venture.The missile, which can carry between 200 and 300 kg of explosives, would complete its flight test in 2012.It would be developed at a cost of $350 million and fitted into the Sukhoi-30 MKI aircraftThe missile, which was inducted into the Army and the Navy, is capable of land-to-ship, ship-to-land and ship-to-ship attacks

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Ministers’ meeting

BOTH INDIA and China, currently engaged diplomatically in dousing recent tensions, will be present at the first-ever meeting of Defence Ministers from 18 countries being held in Vietnam on October 12.

Union Defence Minister A.K. Antony and his Chinese counterpart, Liang Guanglie, would attend the ASEAN Defence Ministers Meeting (ADMM) + 8 format meeting, or ADMM Plus, in Hanoi.

This will be the first high-level ministerial contact between both sides since they sparred over reports suggesting the presence of troops in the Gilgit-Baltistan area of Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and the denial of a Chinese visa to an Indian Army General on grounds that his area of jurisdiction included Kashmir.

The ADMM Plus meeting will be attended by the Defence Ministers of Association of South East Asian Nations, which has 10 members besides six full dialogue partners - China, South Korea, Japan, Australia, India and New Zealand and Russia and the U.S.

Telecom and defence ministries to share spectrum THE TELECOM and defence ministries are close to finalising the settlement on dividing the county’s spectrum between them, ending a four-year-long standoff over these scare resources.

Spectrum or airwaves are the radio frequencies on which all communication signals travel.

The telecom ministry will set aside a certain amount of frequency in most bands for the armed forces as part of a ‘defence band’ and the latter in turn will vacate additional airwaves for commercial telephony.

Both ministries have set a five-seven year time frame to get physical possession of the airwaves after the settlement, as per the minutes of the last two rounds of meetings that were held on August 30 and 31 between the telecom and defence ministry. The defence band also includes airwave requirements of the Strategic Force Command (SFC), Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO), Department of Atomic Energy and Defence Satellite Applications of the Department of Space.

October 2010

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THE GEOPOLITICS OF KASHMIR

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October 2010

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I

T IS rather rare for several otherwise unrelated events providing opportunities to analysts to make sense of a wider construction. That appears to be what exactly is happening in the context of Kashmir of late. Three unconnected developments in the broader South and Central Asian regions tend to underline one single story, that of Kashmir’s geopolitical salience.

These incidents are: one, a massive political unrest in the valley that has put its normal life haywire and even threatens the survival of the Omar Abdullah government; two, the refusal of the Chinese authorities to grant visa to General B.S. Jaswal, the head of India’s Northern Command located in Kashmir, on the ground that people coming from that state required ‘a different kind of visa’; and three, the quadripartite summit of Russia, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Tajikistan at the Black Sea resort, Sochi, that indicates a renewed interest of Russia in the affairs of Afghanistan and Pakistan with its inevitable impact of Russia’s Kashmir policy. The umbilical connection between domestic politics and international strategy in the context of Kashmir is for anyone to see.

It was as early as the Partition of India that the strategic importance of Kashmir was understood and since both India and Pakistan were new nations with limited capacity

rent phase cannot be understood without linking it up with India’s Pakistan policy. The problem of Kashmir is essentially rooted in the original conflict between Indian National

after. And in this Pakistan’s sense of frustration is even more than that of India. Leave alone Kashmir it has not reconciled itself even to the ‘loss’ of Junagarh and Manavadar

PARTHA S. GHOSH argues that Kashmir cannot be viewed in isolasanist prism but in the larger context of the politics of India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Central Asia. He connects the dots in a fascinating account of the present troubles in the valley. to grapple with the complexities of international relations it was virtually the outgoing, yet strategically active, British who called the shots. The princely state of Jammu and Kashmir was part of the region known as the ‘Fulcrum of Asia’ and according to the British this wider strategic region consisted of, besides Jammu and Kashmir (including Gilgit and Baltistan), Baluchistan, Xinjiang, and the NWFP. Kashmir stood ‘on the exposed edge of the Anglo-American defensive system of the Middle East Asia confronting the Soviet Union’. The overall understanding of the British was that the region had an uneasy frontier that faced the ‘uncertain’ Persians, the ‘suspect’ Afghans, the ‘hostile’ Soviets, and later the Chinese. The subsequent Cold War postures of India and Pakistan must be seen against this background.

India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Kashmir are, therefore, interrelated issues. As such, India’s stance in Afghanistan in the cur-

Congress and the Muslim League which the Partition of India could not solve. On the contrary certain unfinished tasks of that exercise allowed the ghost of Partition to haunt the bilateral relations for ever there-

THE CONNECTION BETWEEN DOMESTIC POLITICS AND INTERNATIONAL STRATEGY IN KASHMIR IS FOR ANYONE TO SEE.

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to India. Not only the Pakistani school maps, even the website of the Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs continue to show these areas as constituent parts of Pakistan. No wonder Pakistan has so far fought three-and-a-half wars with India (the 1999 Kargil war is the half war) and for the last two decades been fighting a non-conventional, low-intensity, and low-cost war in the Kashmir Valley.

Ever since 9/11 when Afghanistan was roped in into the U.S. grand strategy to combat terrorism across the world Pakistan has tried to get yet another pretext to take advantage of the situation. Immediately after 9/11 it was not so willing to go along with the United States in its war against terrorism.

But as President George Bush insisted upon a clear and unambiguous commitment from Pakistan, or else getting it branded as an enemy of America, Pakistan was left with little choice. It was this commitment that irked the Islamists. To wriggle out of this quagmire October 2010

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g FOCUS President Pervez Musharraf came out with a justification, which was rather well reasoned out. He argued that his support for the U.S. anti-terrorist stance was motivated by the fear that in the post-Cold War phase the Americans might come closer to India and the latter by taking advantage of the situation could get them on their side to solve the Kashmir problem in India’s favour. Pakistan’s larger involvement in the Kashmir militancy in the aftermath of the American military action in Afghanistan following 9/11 fitted the bill. But how far has Pakistan really succeeded in that venture is of course an open question for records which suggests that it combines three contradictory roles all rolled into one. Pakistan is the sponsor of terrorism, it is the country that has killed and arrested more terrorists than any other country, yet at the same time it is the worst victim of terrorism.

Against this background Kashmir started occupying an important place in both India’s foreign and domestic polices particularly because the problem got increasingly entangled with the developments in Afghanistan.

The unprecedented danger of international Islamist terrorism was knocking at the doors in which both Pakistan and Afghan jihadists were found to be conduits. To complicate the matters further there were reports of Afghan jihadists spreading their wings into the Central Asian region to destabilise the republics in whose stability India had economic and strategic stakes.

Afghanistan-Pakistan nexus in respect of Islamist terrorist activities in India, particularly in Kashmir, is a palpable threat to India that needs to be countered not merely on Indian soil but also wherever they originate meaning Afghanistan and Pakistan. The December 1999 hijacking of an Indian airlines plane and the terrorist-hostage exchange that took place at Kandahar, the two bomb attacks against the Indian embassy in Kabul in July 2008 and October 2009, the arrest of several Afghan militants in Kashmir by Indian security forces, and the 26 February 2010 Taliban attack on Indian engineers and doctors in Kabul engaged in development activities are manifest evidences of this connection.

The volatility of the Afghan situation, and political unrest in Kashmir together with the militant activities there have provided Pakistan to fulfil one of its traditional ambition to ensure strategic depth on its western flanks. In the words of Farzana Shaikh, the author of Making Sense of Pakisan: “Pakistan’s Afghan policy is best understood as an extension of its historical claim to parity with

PAKISTAN’S AFGHAN POLICY REPRESENTS THE TEST OF PAKISTAN’S ASPIRATIONS TO RIVAL INDIA AS A REGIONAL HEGEMON. India. Just as nuclear weapons have served Pakistan as’equalizers’ in its quest for military parity with India, so too has Pakistan’s Afghan policy come to represent the ultimate test of Pakistan’s aspirations to rival India as a regional hegemon. This has entailed the delicate management by Pakistan of two mutually contradictory elements-as a revisionist state on the issue of Kashmir and a defender of the status quo in relation to Afghanistan.

The strains involved in balancing these opposing identities explain, in part, Pakistan’s long-standing ambition to reshape its regional environment by securing Afghanistan as a ‘junior partner’ with a friendly government and thus enhance Pakistan’scapacity to challenge India.”

It is, however, naïve to think that everything is all that black and white in the situation. Pakistan politics is in flux but one can argue that the army may soon make a comeback. There may not be direct indications that the present army chief, General Ashraf Parvez Kayani, nurtures political ambitions but the extension of his tenure for three more years at one go after he was scheduled to retire in November 2010 shows that he has his clout amongst the core commanders, which is critical for any general to continue in leadership. The way the Pakistani media is rife with praise about the army’s role in handling the present flood problem and simultaneously ridiculing the political class for its failure are straws in the wind directing to yet another army takeover. It be may be just a matter of time.

This possibility if contextualised to the recent 18th Amendment to the constitution, passed in April 2010, may lead to interesting speculations. The 1973 Pakistan constitution, which is still in place, mentioned about the division of powers between the two layers of centre and state but it provided only for two lists, the Federal Legislative List and the Concurrent Legislative List without any

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provincial list. Not only was this flaw rectified, the 18th Amendment also restored the authority of the prime minister which had been usurped by the presidency during the years of Zia-ul Haq and Pervez Musharraf.

Constitutionally and theoretically speaking all is well with Pakistan’s federal-cum-parliamentary system that the amendment promises. But to operationalise such a political arrangement it requires democratic maturity which Pakistan is yet to attain. Moreover, it may be underlined that one of the significant proposals contained in the amendment draft was to bring the ISI under civilian control but it was not accepted under army pressure. As such, the political mess that is structured in the process is inevitable to make the army stage a comeback without much difficulty. In the context of India-Pakistan-Afghanistan relationship whether that situation is more desirable than a powerless political leadership in Islamabad is in the realm of speculation, but an uncertain scenario all the same.

Viewed from geopolitical-strategic angle Kashmir is posing a serious challenge to India’s decision-makers for all kinds of international interests are getting intertwined.

Here is a kaleidoscopic view. The Islamist militants, ever operative in the valley, have now a support base amongst the youth thanks partly to the ineptitude of the Kashmir administration and partly to the success of the ISI to capture the moment to its advantage; the connection between the Afghan jihadis and their counterparts in Pakistan (including the PoK) and the valley; the possible exit of the US forces from Afghanistan and the beginning of a new ‘great game’ with its unforeseen ramifications; China’s geostrategic interests in Pakistan and PoK particularly in the contexts of its Uighur separatist menace and its interests in Gwadar Port facilities for the purposes of oil and gas transportation from the Gulf; the Russian interest to prepare itself for its traditional role in the region once opportunities arose due to the volatile situation in the region; Pakistan’s age-old dream of securing a strategic depth with friendly government in Afghanistan in place to ward off the military challenge posed by India; and over and above India’s penchant to have its foothold in the region to safeguard its economic and strategic interests. Behind all these possibilities is the big question what is America really up to?

(Partha S. Ghosh is Professor of South Asian Studies at the School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University) October 2010

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C-130J SUPER HERCULES

T

READY TO FLY

HE FIRST C-130J with IAF colours rolled out of Lockheed’s Marietta plant in Georgia in June this year.

The company had recently released an image of the plane, supposed to be the world’s most advanced transport aircraft.

Purchased from the US in a $1 billion deal, India’s six stretched-fuselage C-130J30s would provide the Indian Army and Indian Air Force “new special operations capabilities using the world’s most advanced airlifter”, Lockheed says.

Equipped with India-unique operational equipment, including an infrared detection set (IDS), the aircraft for the first time will provide the IAF an ability to conduct precision low-level flying operations, airdrops and landings in blackout conditions.

The six-aircraft package meant for India comes with three years of initial support, training of aircrew and maintenance technicians, spares, ground support and test equipment, servicing carts, forklifts, loading vehicles, cargo pallets, and a team of technical specialists who will be based in India during the three-year initial support period.

The package will also supply India-spe-

cific operational equipment designed to increase special operations capabilities. In addition, the C-130J Super Hercules will provide the Indian Air Force with modern and effective airlift to support a wide range of civil requirements.

Equipped with an Infrared Detection Set (IDS), the aircraft will be able to perform precision low-level flying, airdrops, and landing in blackout conditions.

Air forces currently operating the C-130J are the Royal Air Force, Royal Australian Air Force, the Italian Air Force, the Royal Danish Air Force, the United States Air Force, the United States Air National Guard and Reserve, the United States Coast Guard and the United States Marine Corps.

To ensure 80 per cent availability of the aircraft at any given time, Lockheed Martin has offered a long-term maintenance contract to the IAF on the lines of the ones it has with the US Air Force and the air forces of Australia, Britain and Canada.

The C-130J primarily performs the tactical portion of an airlift mission. The aircraft is capable of operating from rough, dirt strips and is the prime transport for airdropping troops and equipment into hostile areas.

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The flexible design of the Super Hercules enables it to be configured for many different missions, allowing for one aircraft to perform the role of many. Much of the special mission equipment added to the Super Hercules is removable, allowing the aircraft to quickly switch between roles.

The C-130J Super Hercules, a fourengine turboprop military transport aircraft, is a comprehensive update of the venerable Lockheed C-130 Hercules, with new engines, flight deck, and other systems.

The aircraft can also be configured with the “enhanced cargo handling system”. The system consists of a computerised loadmaster’s station from where the user can remotely control the under floor winch.

The cargo compartment is approximately 41 feet long, 9 feet high, and 10 feet wide, and loading is from the rear of the fuselage.

Initially developed for the USAF, this system enables rapid role changes to be carried out and so extends the C-130J’s time available to complete tasks.

These combined changes have improved performance over its C-130E/H siblings, such as 40 per cent greater range, 21 per cent higher maximum speed, and 41 percent shorter take-off distance.

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INDIA, RUSSIA TO BUILD MILITARY TRANSPORT PLANES

INDIA AND its biggest military supplier Russia have announced a 600million-dollar joint venture to manufacture military transport aircraft for the two countries.

The 50:50 venture has been signed by India’s state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, Russian United Aircraft Corp and the Russian state-run arms exporter Rosoboronexport.

The “15-20 tonne payload capacity

DRDO’S COMMERCIAL ARM BY YEAREND

DRDO plans to form a commercial arm by year-end as it seeks to put in place an aggressive approach towards marketing and commercialisation of its products and technologies and exports.

It is exploring the possibility of export of Akash and Nag missiles besides the Light Combat Aircraft (Trainer) among others, developed by it, DRDO Research and Development chief controller Prahlada said recently, adding the proposed venture would be similar to Antrix, the marketing arm of ISRO. “If not today, tomorrow we want to start export,” Prahlada said.

DRDO already has a franchisee kind of arrangement with industry body FICCI, which is facilitating marketing of some 10 DRDO-developed products to the industry.

In the next two decades, India is projected to overtake many countries including France, UK and Israel to become the world’s number two, behind China, in terms of defence-related activities, including production.

aircraft would meet the requirements of the Indian Air Force and the Russian Air Force,” said the Indian Defence Ministry in a statement.

Russia is also in the race for a 12billion-dollar contract to sell 126 fighter jets to the Indian Air Force and supply hundreds of combat helicopters to the country’s millionplus Army.

Russia supplies more than 70 percent of India’s military hardware.

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g IAF TO ACQUIRE 126 MULTI-FIGHTER AIRCRAFT SOON

GENERAL DYNAMICS LOOKING AT STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS BOFORS BACK IN IN INDIA ARTILLERY RACE INDIAN AIR Force seems now determined to acquire 126 latest multi-fighter aircraft within a year.

“We are in the final stages of placing

THE JUST-concluded Indesec 2010 in Delhi saw the arrival of many new security solutions for India and business opportunities for the Indian security and defence industry. General Dynamics UK (GDUK), the leading British systems integrator in the defence and security sector, has appointed Wayne Beck as Head of International Partnerships with special responsibility for the Indian market, particularly in providing innovative solutions to the Indian defence and homeland security sector.

Speaking to Geopolitics, Wayne Beck said that GDUK believed in a holistic and incremental approach towards solutions development. He is investigating the possibility of technology transfer to would-be partners who can contribute in developing Indian solutions for Indian markets.

Wayne Beck says GDUK is interested in working together with all sizes of Indian manufacturers. It wishes to develop relationships with a group of companies en route to developing Indian product. He further said, “We are a systems integration company and we propose to work as a systems integrator in India.”

It is said that GDUK’s Battle Management System with BOWMAN technology is currently operating in over 13,000 vehicles of British army. In last six years, over 13,000 vehicles have been fitted with BOWMAN. India is planning to induct BMS for its Army and GDUK’s BOWMAN technology would be one of the main contenders.

THE BOFORS gun is back in the competition for a record fourth time for a multi-billion dollar heavy-artillery gun order from the Indian Army.

BAE Systems, the current owner of Bofors, has said that it has “submitted a response to the Indian Ministry of Defence’s latest RFI (request for information) for towed 155mm howitzers, following previous tenders which were cancelled because of the inability of other potential suppliers to meet the tender conditions.”

Along with its Indian partner, Mahindra and Mahindra, the company has offered a version of the FH77 B05 155mm howitzer. It says: “A significant proportion will be manufactured in India to meet the specific needs of the Indian Army.”

In the last trial, which was cancelled by A K

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orders to acquire 126 multi-fighter aircraft from US, France or Sweden within a year,” Air Marshal Anil Chopra told reporters recently.

Antony led Defence Ministry in July, the Bofors gun and ST Kinetics’s iFH 2000 were the only guns in the competition.

The guns — Bofors FH 77 B05 and STK’s iFH 2000 — that the companies had brought for the trials are still in India. The cancellation of the tender pushed the Indian Army’s field artillery modernisation programme, already behind schedule by 10 years, at least two more years behind, it is believed.

The Army plans to buy and produce a total of 1,580 guns of the 155mm/52 caliber category. For 23 years now, the Army has not added a single big gun to its arsenal since the Bofors FH77B02, contracted by the Rajiv Gandhi government, which had raised a row over kickbacks.

The old guns are now rusty and the artillery regiments often resort to cannibalisation to keep some of them firing.

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NAVY FISHES TO ADD SUBS

THE INDIAN Navy sent requests for information (RFI) — the precursor to a global tender — for a “second-line” of six conventional attack submarines.

In what is going to be India’s biggestever defence project till now, the acquisition of six new-generation stealth submarines, with land-attack capabilities, will cost over Rs 50,000 crore. The acquisition is under what is called ‘Project-75 India’.

The submarine fleet of the Navy that officially has 15 boats could be down to just half-a-dozen by the end of next year because they are being retired faster than the government can acquire new vessels and also because the procurement through a deal with France has fallen way behind schedule.

The Indian Navy seeks to maintain a submarine fleet that is capable of operating in an environment where adversarial (Chinese and Pakistani) vessels often intrude into waters around the country, tracking its ships and picking up and recording their electronic “signatures”.

The RFI has asked manufacturers for details of contemporary submarines that are already in service or on sea trials and are capable of operating in “dense ASW (anti-submarine warfare) and EW (electronic warfare) environment”.

The manufacturers have been asked to give the information by the end of September.

The “first-line” of new submarines are the Scorpenes that are being bought from DCNS Armaris (a Franco-Spanish) venture.

Four of the six submarines under the 2005 contract are to be made through transfer of technology in Mazgaon Docks in Mumbai. But the $3.6-billion deal is in rough waters with the delivery of components delayed, the assembly line construction tardy and with the French having asked for the cost to be escalated to upwards of $6 billion.

The delivery of the Scorpenes was to begin from this year but now it looks unlikely before 2012.

The contract for the Scorpenes had a provision for further orders. But the navy has decided against ordering from the same maker under the same contract because of the cost and time overruns.

Among the likely competitors are - the Navy is expecting — Russia’s Rubin Design Bureau, Germany’s HDW (which was blacklisted in the past but is now cleared to compete), Sweden’s Kockums and DCNS Armaris. Along with transfer of technology, the cost of the second-line could be up to $10 billion or more.

The Navy is also expecting the Russian-build Nerpa nuclear submarine to join its fleet by January 2011. There is no official word on the nuclear submarine that is being taken on a 10-year lease, the second time since the Navy had the INS Chakra (also on lease from Russia) in the mid-1980s.

India’s own nuclear submarine (the INS Arihant), unveiled last year, is due for sea trials next year. The current submarine fleet is officially stated to comprise 10 Russian Kilo-class and four German HDW.

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MAINI GLOBAL BAGS $10-MN BOEING DEAL MAINI GLOBAL Aerospace (MGA) has bagged an outsourcing contract worth up to $10 million to make structural components for the extended range fuel cells of the Boeing P-8A Poseidon multi-mission maritime (MMR) aircraft.

MGA — owned by the Maini group — pioneered the manufacture of the country’s first electric car Reva.

Marshall is among the major subcontractors for Boeing P8 Poseidon military aircraft currently being developed for the US Navy. It is intended to conduct antisubmarine warfare and shipping interdiction and to engage in an electronic intelligence (ELINT) role. India has also placed orders with Boeing for the supply of eight P-8I Poseidons at a total cost of $2.1 billion.

“We will invest around $30-40 million in the next 4-5 years to scale up our infrastructure and capacity. We expect to reach to a turnover of about 200-250 crore by 2015,” says Naresh Palta, CEO, Maini Global Aerospace.

This contract is expected to open newer opportunities for Maini Aerospace as Marshall is currently engaged in a number of major manufacturing projects, including the lightweight fuel tanks for commercial planes such as Boeing 747-400 ER aircraft, and Boeing 777 ER aircraft.

The firm also designs and manufactures engine housing structures for Honda Jet. Maini Aerospace, which has developed more than 900 build-to-print parts, has also bagged contracts worth Rs 50 crore from global customers such as Safran, BAE Systems, Eaton, Goodrich and Magellan Aerospace.

It is also working with state-owned aerospace firm Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) to make components for projects such as SU-30 fighter aircraft, Dornier aircraft, Intermediate jet trainers, Cheetah and Chetak helicopters.

The company is moving up the value chain and creating the ability to develop full wings, slats, tails, longerons, pylons, flaps, winglets and cabin doors.

Defence experts say that emerging firms such as Maini Aerospace have an opportunity to tap around 15-20 per cent of the $10-billion offset contracts. An offset agreement is a stipulation made between a foreign supplier and a company which requires the supplier to purchase a certain amount of goods from that country in exchange for a contract.

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THE US is winning millions of dollars of orders from the Indian defence forces after demonstrating new weapons in joint exercises with the Indian Army, Navy and Air Force.

The delay in the manufacture of indigenous NAG missiles has forced India to consider buying thousands of Javelin anti-tank guided

missiles (ATGM) from the United States.

The Indian government would go down the route of a US direct foreign military sale when ordering the Ja v e l i n , made

by Raytheon and Lockheed Martin. The process could frustrate the European, in particular the Russian, ATGM manufactures because it bypasses the global competitive tender route.

Javelin anti-tank-guided missiles (ATGM) were demonstrated for the first time in a recent war game that the Indian and US Armies conducted jointly.

Executives of the company that makes the weapon, Raytheon Corporation, were present at Yudh Abhyas

INDIA WILL PAY 3.8 PER CENT ON ALL FMS DEALS WITH THE US INDIA WOULD be paying 3.8 per cent as an administrative fee for all military hardware and systems acquired from the United States under its Foreign Military Sales (FMS) programme.

This fee is actually the same for every country for all FMS deals, effective from August 2006, and is charged to facilitate discussions with US arms manufacturers, weapon tests, securing all government clearances and to ensure that a customer gets exactly what he pays for.

FMS is administered by the US Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), headed by a three-star officer, at pres-

ent Vice Admiral William Landay. As per the US Congressional requirements, the agency is neither supposed to make any profit nor suffer any loss. As a DSCA statement says: “The customer is assured that the acquisition process will be subject to DoD (Department of Defense) standards.”

The price is generally what the US government pays for acquisitions by its own army, navy and air force, but may differ slightly as the DoD funds the development of various systems by advancing funds to companies like Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman.

09 in Babina, a range of the Indian Army’s armoured corps in Madhya Pradesh.

The US Army demonstrated how the shoulder-fired weapon is used.

The Javelin is one of the most expensive anti-tank missiles in the global market. The Indian Army has so far used the Milan anti-tank missiles that are made in India with French collaboration.

Similarly, the Indian Air Force also decided to buy the C-130J Hercules and is planning to buy the C-17 Globemaster III aircraft after putting them through trials but after first witnessing their performance in joint drills and during visits of senior officials.

The Indian Navy bought the USS Trenton, now christened the INS Jalashva, after it was given a demonstration in the Mediterranean during the Israel-Hizbollah war of 2006.

INDIA SIGNS DEAL FOR HARPOON BLOCK II MISSILES WITH THE US INDIA HAS signed an agreement with the US government to purchase 24 Harpoon Block II missiles for its Jaguar strike aircraft, in a bid to ramp up its maritime warfare capability.

According to Boeing country head, defence, space and security, Mr Vivek Lall, “The deal was successfully concluded through the Foreign Military Sales route late last month, with Boeing as the prime contractor. The missiles are for the Indian Air Force’s maritime strike squadron.”

The deal, expected to be worth about

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$170 million, has been on the cards for over two years now, with the Bush administration having wheeled out a sales notification during Defence Minister A K Antony’s visit to Washington in 2008. The US had also sold the same missiles to Pakistan.

The Harpoon Block II is the latest version of the subsonic missile and is able to strike land-based targets and ships. It is an allweather, over the horizon, antiship missile, which can be launched from surface ships, submarines and aircraft.

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INTERVIEW On his visit to India recently, WOOLF P GROSS, Corporate Director, International Programmes, Northrop Grumman, spoke to ROHIT SRIVASTAVA on his company’s reply to Indian Navy’s RFI for airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) system and its future plans for India.

“WE ARE RESPONSIVE TO INDIA’S REQUIREMENTS” Q

Northrop Grumman is bidding for deck based AEW&C. Tell us about your chances.

We formally responded to the Indian Navy’s request for information (RFI) six weeks back.

We are proposing essentially the same E-2D Advanced Hawkeye system as that of US Navy, which the US government officially approved for release to India only last summer. India is only the second international approval. It is the only carrier-based AEW in the world. Though in its outward appearance it is very similar to the preceding E-2C, the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye houses a completely redesigned and very leading edge surveillance system.

Indian Navy doesn’t have any carrier which can operate this system. How do you see E-2D would be employed in Indian Navy.

The RFI specifically focusses on carrier-capable AEW&C. India’s existing aircraft carrier INS Viraat, the under procurement INS Vikramaditya and under construction Indigenous Aircraft Carrier(IAC) are not equipped with a catapult, which is a requirement for operating E-2D off the carrier deck. It is well known that the Indian Navy is looking for more than one future. Meanwhile, E-2D could be alternatively used from shore bases, a specific requirement called out in the RFI. In consonance with the

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RFI’s requirements, we would be offering extended range capability for this interim mission.

To provide this extended range, the E-2D we would offer the Indian Navy will have two changes. Firstly, it will have in-flight refueling capability which is to be a standard fit for US Navy in the future. Indian Air Force has refueling capacity and it would not be very difficult to use them for refueling of E-2D. Secondly, meeting the RFI specifications requires an alternative fuel storage in the outer wing panel (a socalled “wet wing”). This will give the aircraft several hours of additional endurance over the current configuration aircraft. The RFI specifically asked about converting the wet wing to dry for deck-based operation. Just as on the US Navy E-2D’s, the dry wings will be foldable for carrier operation. It will take approximately one month in converting wet to dry and vice versa. We are open to working with Indian industry on this.

How is E-2D going to improve maritime capability of India.

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g INTERVIEW Indian Navy significantly lacks long-range maritime situational awareness capability.

What E-2D provides is long-range, 360 degree coverage of up to seven million cubic miles of air space and the airborne control capability for surface, aircraft and ground detection. It is capable of providing air traffic control for reasonably long duration. E2D is also capable of providing disaster relief coordination. As an example, during Hurricane Katrina E-2 flew right behind the hurricane, operating as an airborne coordination centre for relief activities guiding aircraft and helicopters in rescue missions. In the obvious metaphor for the Indian Ocean, a tsunami or cyclone, E-2D provides similar capabilities.

Kindly tell us about your main competitors.

That question would be better addressed to the Indian Navy.

Offset obligation is a must for any defence procurement above 300 crore. How is offset obligation from this deal is going to benefit Indian defence industry.

We have long since discussed the offset obligation of E-2D programme with Indian industry. We have MoUs with PSUs and private companies looking forward to collaborating on subsystems and spare parts. The current RFI requires four E-2Ds, but we understand that the eventual requirement could be much larger. Even for a larger number, shifting manufacturing to India would be inefficient costwise. Indian Navy has established its own communications and data link requirements using Indian equipment. We assume that the E-2D would be required to use relevant Indian equipment. We have had discussions with several Indian companies about building subsystems and even the possibility of buy-backs. This could conceivably include buy-backs for third country or even

US Navy use, but would depend upon Indian industries’ cost effectiveness and quality. We are quite confident of our ability to surpass thirty per cent of contract cost as required by the DPP. For example, the wet wing’s basic design is ready, but has yet to be translated into a manufacturable product. We would consider transferring wet-wing production to India. If an Indian producer contributes to development of the wet wing, then they could conceivably also have a share of intellectual property rights and could also participate in future business for other overseas programmes.

Tell us about the possible time frame for this program.

From time of signing of the contract, the first aircraft could be delivered in about 30 months’ time. The subsequent three aircraft would take roughly another 24 months. Thus, in 54 months following signing of the contract, all four aircraft could be delivered. We delivered the first E-2D to the US Navy fleet earlier this summer. If the contract were to be awarded now, add-ons to the production line would be cost effective for both the Indian and the US Navies. Production rates at this time are flexible.

While we are currently producing five aircraft per year for the US Navy, we have the capacity to deliver up to eight aircraft per year. We have not started calculating the cost as the RFI does not require it, but a request for proposal would. We will work on it once the RFP is issued.

Indian Navy had asked for procurement on a direct commercial basis. We have told them it has to be a Foreign Military Sale [FMS] as per US government requirements. Training and maintenance, however, can be done on a direct commercial basis. Transfer of technology remains to be seen. Technology would be required for maintenance, reprogramming and full package for long — term upgrades and operating of the system by Indian Navy.

Northrop Grumman believes in delivering the product and enabling the user to maintain the system on its own.

What are future plans of Northrop Grumman for India.

Our strategy is to be as responsive as possible to India’s homeland security requirements.

We have a number of capabilities directly responsive to counter insurgency and continue to have discussions about these systems.

Northrop Grumman’s solutions include such capabilities as UAVs for jungle warfare recce, IED detection systems for CI ops as well as fast interceptor crafts for coastal security.

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INDESEC 2010 THIRD EDITION of Indesec expo was organised by ASSOCHAM with Ministry of Home Affairs’ support from 6th to 8th September in New Delhi. It aimed at bringing together different solutions available in the market for the existing and emerging threats to India’s internal security.

Indesec saw the latest in maritime, border, airport, transport, critical infrastructure and disaster management, surveillance, armour, safety and non-lethal weapon system solutions for the urgent requirement of the Government of India and state governments. More than 100 exhibitors from both India and abroad showcased their latest technological innovations and solutions relevant to the homeland security.

The expo also saw conferences over important and relevant challenges in home land security, with the participation of many leading luminaries from government agencies such as RAW, IB, CBI, paramilitary organisations and Home Ministry.

Of the technologies exhibited, those pertaining to anti-mine boots, non-lethal weapons for mob control and anti-riot policing were very well received.

Though the expo was attended by global leaders such as Northrop Grumman, BAE, General Dynamics, UK, and Honeywell, the sour note was the fact that as against the participation of 25 countries in the last edition in 2009, this time only 11 countries were represented.

Minister of State for Home Ajay Maken inaugurating INDESEC 2010

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GEOPOLITICS

DEFBIZ

The Kaveri engine continues to be a work in progress with no easy solutions in sight. Will Light Combat Aircraft ‘Tejas’ now be powered by a foreign engine? It’s an incredible situation: an indigenous aircraft fitted with a foreign engine, not designed originally for the LCA. ROHIT SRIVASTAVA reports

L

IGHT COMBAT Aircraft (LCA) 'Tejas' is at long last ready for induction after three decades of delayed development. Recently, its naval version was also rolled out and will undergo the mandatory ground and flight tests very soon. Indian Air Force (IAF) has placed orders for 40 LCA aircraft at a cost of `2000 crore that would be inducted beginning 2012. And here is the catch — although considered indigenous, major and substantial components of LCA are imported, the most important component being its engines. LCA Technology Demonstrators and Limited Series Production aircraft are presently flying with GE F404 engine, which is way short of 90kN thrust required for LCA. As a matter of fact the LCA was supposed to be powered by the indigenously developed Kaveri engine. Though the development of the engine was taken up in 1989 when the LCA project, it is 21 years later still a work in progress, still short of attaining the thrust requirement of the LCA. In fact this one key

element completely changes the dynamics and operational efficiency of the whole aircraft.

An engine fit helps create a better weightto-power ratio enabling the aircraft to carry more fuel and weapons. Faced with contingency, an air force can decide whether to carry a payload of more weapons or more fuel.

Moreover, a powerful engine provides speed, higher ceiling of operation, and clever manoeuvring, which are the deciding factors in a dogfight. Since LCA has been designed basically for air defence and reconnaissance roles (as replacement to Mig 21b), it is imperative that its engine must provide enough power for its envisaged role.

For the development of Kaveri engine, the government initially sanctioned an amount of just `382 crore which has escalated to over `3000 crore till 2010. In the last three years

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alone, an amount of `430 crore has been spent on the development of the engine. The engine is being developed by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO)'s Gas Turbine Research Establishment (GTRE).

The continuing non-completion of the Kaveri project has created complications for the LCA induction programme. For the 40 Tejas it has ordered, the IAF team is closely monitoring the induction programme with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL). The first two squadrons are slated to be powered

by GE F404, but subsequent aircraft will be powered by other imported engines. For this, October 2010

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g DEFBIZ Request for Information (RFP) was issued on 20 July 2009, seeking proposal for 99 engines, with option for further 49 engines. The first 10 engines are to be delivered in readyto-use condition and rest to be assembled or manufactured in India. There are two contenders for this deal ❁ General Electric with its GE F414 engine and ❁ Euro Jet with its EJ200 engine.

Both the engines are provided with the range of 2022k lb of thrust, which marks a significant increase over 18k lb of thrust provided by GE F404.

“EJ200 offers latest generation technology in its class, as it is smaller in diameter and weighs less than its competitors. EJ200 has the highest thrust-to-weight ratio in its category and offers super cruise capability and low-fuel consumption at the same time,” said Hartmut J. Tenter, CEO, Eurojet while talking about the engine and added: “The engine is equipped with a FADEC (Full Authority Digital Engine Control Unit), which, in addition, contains a sophisticated on-condition-engine-health monitoring system. The FADEC provides full carefree engine handling throughout the complete flight envelope. With EJ200, LCA can take off from short runways, carry higher payloads and accelerate faster, boosting LCA's desired multirole mission capability." In simpler terms, true full authority digital engine controls (FADEC) have no form of manual override available, placing full authority over the operating parameters of the engine in the hands of the computer.

There were media reports suggesting that the DRDO with Snecma — a major French manufacturer of engines for commercial and military aircraft — wants to pitch in this engine procurement plan with an improved version of Kaveri, which will be co-developed by both partners. There a r e some who believe, though they do not wish to be quoted, that this is a Snecma effort to enter into

Advanced Fighter Engine GE414 THE F414-400 is the most advanced jet engine in its class.

Launched in 1998, today, it is powering Super Hornets off of aircraft carriers.

Engine Overview The F414-GE-400 is the US Navy's newest and most advanced technology production fighter engine. It incorporates advanced technology with the proven design base of its F404 predecessor to provide the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet with a durable, reliable and easy to maintain engine.

The engine entered production in late 1998 after a highly successful engineering and manufacturing development programme that was completed on time and on budget.

F/A-18E/F Super Hornet production deliveries to the US Navy are in process and are planned to continue through 2012. The F414-GE-400 has been highly reliable during initial field service.

The F414-GE-400 builds upon the excellent reliability, operability and readiness of the F404 engine. The F414 delivers 35 per cent more thrust than the original F404, significantly improving the Boeing F/A-18 E/F Super Hornet's range, payload and survivability. Advanced technology features such as a Full Authority Digital Electronic Control (FADEC) improve operational characteristics of the engine while the latest materials and cooling techniques allow for higher temperatures and pressures without sacrificing component life.

Length (Inches): 154 Max. Power at Sea Level (Lb.): 22,000 In addition, Sweden selected the RM12, an upgraded F404 in partnership with Volvo, to power its new, all-purpose fighter, the Gripen.

Today, the F404 is the standard for modern fighter aircraft offering performance, simplicity and multi-mission capability.

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Specification (GTX-35VS Kaveri) General characteristics

Type: Afterburning turbofan Length: 137.4 in (3490 mm) Diameter: 35.8 in (910 mm) Dry weight: 2,427 lb (1,100 kg) [Production model goal: 2,100 lb (950 kg)]

Components

Compressor: two-spool, with lowpressure (LP) and high-pressure (HP) axial compressors: LP compressor with 3 fan stages and transonic blading HP compressor with 6 stages, including variable inlet guide vanes and first two stators Combustors: annular, with dump diffuser and air-blast fuel atomisers Turbine: 1 LP stage and 1 HP stage

Performance

AN AIRCRAFT IN THE MAKING: The Tejas Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) project is a key to the IAF's future. If India wants to export the aircraft, the design and reliability will be the key factors. Are we ready and if not how long before indeed we are ready?

this deal riding piggyback on DRDO. Reports also suggest that M88 engine, which is powering French fighter Dassaults Rafael, one of the contenders of MMRCA, will be modified and stamped with co- development label. Snecma has also worked with Aeronautical Development Agency on this project previously. The M88 engine of Snecma doesn't have the same range of thrust as the other two engines in the race. Repeated efforts by this reporter to get

EJ200 Engine

Thrust class 20,000 lbf (90 kN) with reheat 13,500 lbf (60 KN) without reheat Engine data Bypass ratio 0.4:1 Pressure ratio 26:1 Compressor stages 3 LP, 5 HP Combustion system Annular Airspray Turbine stages1 HP, 1 LP Basic engine weight 1,000 kg

the DRDO's response was unsuccessful.

The entire project has been complicated by what is clearly a surgical intervention: imposing a foreign heart (engine) into an Indian body. For one, the two were not designed at the drawing board stage for each other. Its is basically tweaking what is available off the shelf to best suit the LCA. Moreover, without an indigenous engine proramme or a JV what happens about a continuing supply plus spares and inventories.

Indian defence production and development is plagued by everlasting delays and postponements. Some of the strategically and technically important projects — Arjun MBT, ALH Dhruv, Intermediate Jet Trainer Sitara, Anti-tank Nag, Trishul and Akash missiles — all have got delayed, with huge cost escalations to boot. Some of the systems, even after their development and cost escalation, have not been accepted by the end-user, with the result that the production agencies involved are under questioning for delayed and substandard production. Most systems produced indigenously fall seriously short of actual requirements, besides being riddled with blatant flaws, and are even costlier than the

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Maximum thrust: Military thrust (throttled):11,687 lbf (52.0 kN) Full afterburner:18,210 lbf (81.0 kN) Specific fuel consumption: Military thrust: 0.78 lb/(lbfoh) (79.52 kg/(kN·h)) Full afterburner: 2.03 lb/(lbfoh) (207.00 kg/(kN·h)) Thrust-to-weight ratio: 7.8:1 (76.0 N/kg)

Engine cycle

Airflow: 172 lb/s (78.0 kg/s) Bypass ratio: 0.16:1 Overall pressure ratio: 21.5:1 [Goal: 27:1] LP compressor pressure ratio: 3.4:1 [Goal: 4:1] HP compressor pressure ratio: 6.4:1 Turbine entry temperature: 2,2182,601 °F (1,214-1,427 °C; 1,4871,700 K) [Goal: 3,357 °F (1,847 °C; 2,120 K)]

imported and much more advanced systems.

The delay in the development of Kaveri engine is due to many factors — primarily a lack of world-class R&D and human resources. But in DRDO circles there is still hope that one day the Kaveri engine will come of age providing the nation with an indigenous option to power aircraft. How soon will that be no one knows!

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SCRUTINY

TRIAL BY FIRE The Indian Army is woefully short of achieving self-sufficiency in artillery firepower, with red tape and corruption marring modernisation through indigenous route, reports SAURAV JHA

S

ELDOM IS a farce allowed to last long in military matters. If at all it does, then it almost always results in a catastrophe for the forces concerned. However, there seems no end in sight to the Indian Army’ s artillery modernisation programme, which may see an unheard of sixth round of trials after the issuance of a fresh Request For Information (RFI) for the towed gun requirement. At the moment things appear bleak for artillery modernisation and fresh ideas may be required to break the seemingly unending cycle of trials, followed by allegations of corruption, leading to the blacklisting of certain firms, thereby precipitating the cancellation of the trials, to be followed, naturally, by fresh requests for new proposals.

The Indian Army has not inducted any contemporary artillery systems since the Bofors scandal of the late eighties. That episode left India with only 400

odd FH-77B-02 39 calibre 155 mm howitzers instead of the 1500 that were initially planned.

As matters stand today, the Indian Army’ s 230 artillery regiments with 18 guns each are made up almost entirely of legacy systems, the most modern of which are Bofors and a limited number of Warsaw pact origin M-46 field guns upgraded to 155mm/45 calibre standard by the Ordnance Factory Board (OFB) with Israeli assistance.

However it has been understood for sometime now that field artillery must move towards inducting contemporary 155 mm/ 52 calibre systems to achieve the firepower capability required to meet the demands of not only the much-touted Cold Start doctrine but also the emerging possibility of a two-front war. Indeed, the massing of accurate and heavy volume of firepower, coordinated with combined arms

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operations, would be imperative for achieving the objectives of Cold Start, which seeks to inflict heavy punishment on the enemy before nuclear red lines are crossed. This necessarily rules out massive thrusts into enemy territory to grab as much land as possible, but instead rely on shallow penetration and firepower to degrade enemy assets punitively. Of course, a lack of adequate artillery firepower would certainly circumscribe whatever little freedom of manoeuvre our own forces would require and make them susceptible to enemy artillery. In short, Cold Start seeks to neutralise enemy defences in the shortest possible time and the most economical way to do that is still the use of massed artillery firepower based on the Soviet ‘ 100 gun’ concept.

Moreover, given the evolving geo-strategic environment, it would be prudent to prepare for a

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THE INDIAN ARMY HAS NOT INDUCTED ANY CONTEMPORARY ARTILLERY SYSTEMS AFTER THE BOFORS GUN. TOP OF THE LINE: The Bofors gun was hugely successful in combating the Pakistan Light Infantry infiltrators in Kargil in 1999. range of military challenges which requires the use of precision-massed artillery, including, of course, the possibility of a two-front war and overseas operations. Given that a lot of the action in a two-front war scenario will be in the mountains, it is absolutely essential that long-range howitzers capable of firing precision-guided munitions be inducted to not just provide support to assault divisions, but also win the counter-battery fire game.

The Indian Army has, of course, been cognizant of this for sometime now, which is why it introduced its Field Artillery Rationalization Plan (FARP) in 1999, which envisaged the induction of 155 mm systems across the entire spectrum of towed, wheeled and tracked types to replace legacy holdings of 155, 130 and 105 mm calibre systems by 2017. FARP intends to greatly simplify ammunition logistics by bringing about unity in calibre whilst simultaneously enhancing technology levels. By 2004, however, the Indian Army added to its list of requirements two more 155 mm types — light-weight towed howitzers, with Laser Inertial Artillery Pointing Systems (LINAPS) of the

155/39 calibre variety, which are helicopter transportable, and mounted gun systems which are essentially motorized 155/52 howitzers based on a six-wheeled-truck chassis.

Unfortunately, as we can see, it has proved quite an uphill task to implement FARP. Trials for procuring 155 mm, 52-calibre towed guns began in summer 2002, when the Ministry of Defence began evaluating three guns from BAE Systems; Israel’ s Soltam; and Denel from South Africa. Five rounds of trials conducted in 2002, 2003, 2004 and 2006 reached no conclusion. Denel was blacklisted for corruption in September 2005; the other two guns did not meet the Army’ s standards, particularly after the Israeli gun exploded in the middle of trials.

Now take, for instance, the latest cancellation. In the second half of July, sources in the Ministry of Defense confirmed that the new RFI for towed guns was issued as a result of the creation of a single-vendor situation due to the non-appearance of the ST Kinetics’ gun at the trials, which, according to India’ s Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP), typically mandates a fresh process.

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Strangely, however, no mention was made of the fact that cancellation could be due to the fact that Singapore’ s ST Kinetics is one of the six companies [Singapore Technologies Kinetics (STK-Singapore), Israel Military Industries Ltd (IMI-Israel), Rheinmetall Air Defence (RAD-Switzerland), Cooperation Defence ( CD-Russia), T S Kisan & Co. Pvt. Ltd (India), and R K Machines Tools Ltd (India)], with whom dealings have been put on hold at the behest of the CBI, which is investigating allegations of corruption involving the OFB’ s former top executive, Sudipta Ghosh.

In any case, the cancelled tender was related to 1580 towed 155/52 calibre units, of which 400 were to be purchased off the shelf, and the rest (1180) to be license-produced in India by the OFB after transfer of technology.

The Technical Evaluation Committee (TEC) shortlisted the weapons of two firms, BAE Systems and ST Kinetics, and scheduled the trials to commence from February 27, 2010. Interestingly, Rheinmetall was also initially to be part of the trials, but was barred when it was learnt that it was cooperating with Denel for October 2010

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g SCRUTINY this tender. In any case, Army sources say that East Europeans may respond to the fresh RFI. The situation across the other categories doesn’ t seem any healthier. The Army is currently holding trials, supposed to have begun on April 27, 2010, for 180 units of 155 mm/52 Calibre Wheeled Self Propelled Guns. Unfortunately, as we have seen above, Rheinmetall Defence is one of the six firms reported to have been recommended for blacklisting by the CBI in early July which means that we have another potential single vendor situation in this category as well.

The Army had been issued an RFI on August 29, 2008 for 100 units of 155 mm/52 Calibre Tracked Self Propelled Guns, which had been approved by the DAC on February 26, 2008. Eleven vendors had responded to the RFI but, once again, only Rheinmetall Defence submitted a Technical and Commercial Offer, leading to a single-vendor situation, following which the process was cancelled.

In 1999, the Indian Army had sought 220 wheeled and 180 tracked howitzers. However, post- 2005, it started looking for mounted gun systems which led to the wheeled requirement being whittled down to 180 and the tracked requirement to 100, as indicated by the RFPs. The Indian Army is currently looking at offthe-shelf purchase of 200 155 mm/52 calibremounted gun systems, to be followed by indigenous manufacture of another 614 such howitzers under transfer of technology. The status of tendering for this segment is unclear as well.

Even the status of the light gun category is not clear. The DAC had approved procurement of 145 units of 155 mm/39 Calibre Ultra Light Howitzers on June 19, 2006, and an RFI was issued to ten global vendors on January 14, 2008. ST Kinetics was the only one to submit a Technical and Commercial Offer for its Pegasus Light Weight Howitzer on June 30, 2008.

Since this was, again, a single-vendor situation, the process was put on hold, and, of course, ST Kinetics has been subsequently blacklisted.

By May 2009, it seemed that the government had decided to buy 145 M777 ultralight howitzers from the US-based subsidiary of BAE Systems through the government-togovernment Foreign Military Sales (FMS) route. The FMS route was supposed to avoid the various pitfalls to the DPP which, despite being continually revised, has not yet enabled the Army to meet its artillery requirements.

And, in the second half of January 2010, a notification by the Pentagon was sent to the US Congress for a possible sale of 145 state-ofthe-art lightweight towed Howitzers to India.

But, as of today, there is no word on the status of this deal which, frankly speaking, depends

“ INDIA HAS BEEN ‘ TOO LATE’ IN ACQUIRING MODERN ARTILLERY AND NEEDS TO ACCELERATE ITS EFFORTS TO MODERNISE ITS FIREPOWER IN AN ERA IN WHICH ADVANCED NATIONS HAVE GONE FAR AHEAD” GEN VK SINGH on the vagaries of Indo-US relations.

Nevertheless, as with everything else, this tiring saga may just be a catalyst for further indigenisation of the Indian Army. There were indications in late July, after the cancellation of the towed artillery tender that the DRDO may step in with a proposal of its own. As one DRDO insider told this writer: “ Given the state of affairs, the Army probably won’ t be able to get its new guns in the next 7-8 years anyway, by which time a world-class 155 mm howitzer can be developed indigenously and production started using private sector support.”

Indeed, a 155/52 calibre system is not beyond the technological capabilities of DRDO, which has gathered considerable experience in developing metallurgical process, while developing a 120 mm rifled gun for Arjun Mkl-1 Main Battle Tank. However, this time DRDO intends to partner with private sector majors for this programme.

Sources say that the experience of the Pinaka MBRL programme has given them the requisite confidence that a sound partnership between DRDO and the Indian private sector

INDEED, A 155/52 CALIBRE SYSTEM IS NOT BEYOND THE TECHNOLOGICAL CAPABILITIES OF DRDO

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can produce a 155 mm artillery system in the next three years which can be adapted to meet the Army’ s requirements across various categories, except, of course, the air transportable segment. DRDO believes that it is time that the MoD exercises the ‘ make’ clause in DPP which facilitates indigenous production.

Even as the focus is on new guns, the fact remains that India continues to be woefully short in the area of achieving self-sufficiency in munitions as well. India continues to import fuses for 155 mm artillery shells from Israel, and is still not instituting the capability to manufacture laser-guided shells indigenously, relying instead on Russian Kransopol ammunition.

Once again, allegations of corruption can be held responsible for stunting capability development in the sphere of artillery munitions. Five new 155 mm shell producing factories were slated to come up in Bihar’ s Nalanda district in collaboration with Israeli Military Industries. The project is now in serious jeopardy with the recent blacklisting.

Right now, there are reports that the Army is scrambling to purchase hundreds of 130 mm M-46 from former Eastern Bloc countries in a manner reminiscent of the early nineties when several reports appeared in newspapers about the Indian Army importing hundreds of M-46s from disintegrating Warsaw Pact countries. The Army says it is also planning to expedite the upgradation of existing 39 Calibre Bofors howitzers to the 52 calibre standard.

Of course, none of this comes even close to being called a stop-gap measure to meet the Army’ s requirements. Of the most immediate concern is the procurement of 180 wheeled and 100 tracked howitzers, replacing the jury rigged 130 mm Catapult and 105 mm self-propelled systems, to fulfil basic force requirements. This essentially means that without these 280 new guns, the Army’ s key plains strike corps are toothless, since any armoured assault without organic firepower is very problematic indeed.

Given that the situation, one way or the other, shows that the government simply does have the will to make ‘ exceptions’ to the DPP process, it is best that the indigenous route be seriously explored. In the past, we have seen many a times, indigenous development being canned for delays. However, the artillery modernisation saga shows that the import route is no simpler. Also, given that over 3000 guns are required in all with a total value of almost 7 billion dollars, it makes no sense to splurge that money abroad. In any case, it is time that India realised that there can be no real independent foreign policy for a country that imports 70 per cent of its basic military hardware.

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GEOPOLITICS

COVERSTORY

A combat helicopter is an element of modern warfare. From Vietnam to Iraq and in such peacetime exercises as Somalia and Kosovo, the Light Combat Helicopter has been a key element in exercising control on the ground. Lt. General (Retd.) B.S. PAWAR discusses how the LCH will impact the overall scenario in the sub continent.

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WARS

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OMBAT HELICOPTERS can be classified into two categories — the Armed helicopters/ Gunships and the Modern day dedicated attack helicopters (AH). Both are military helicopters, wherein the Armed helicopters/ Gunships are normal utility, cargo or reconnaissance helicopters, modified with weapon mounts for attacking targets on the ground. The purpose of modification could be field expediency during combat as well as need to maintain helicopters for missions that do not require weapons.

The AH on the other hand is specifically designed and built to carry weapons for engaging targets on ground and air. The weapons include machine guns, cannons, rockets and guided missiles for air-toground and air to air engagement. Modern day AH has two main roles of providing direct and accurate close air support for ground troops and anti tank role to destroy enemy armour. Specialised armed helicopters flying from ships at sea are equipped

with weapons for anti-submarine and/or anti-shipping operations.

The concept evolved with the French during the Algerian and first Indo China Wars (1954-1962) in the form of modified armed helicopters. The first use of armed helicopters by the USA in large-scale combat operations was in Vietnam. Until Vietnam, military helicopters were mostly used for troop transport, observation and casualty evacuation. The modified helicopters included the UH-IC troop carrying ‘Huey’ and the larger ones like Sikorsky and Chinook CH-47.

During the 1960’s The Soviet Union also felt the need for armed helicopters and equipped the military MI-8 helicopter with weapon pods. This was subsequently developed into the MI-24 which saw active action in Afghanistan during the 1980’s. In our own context we had earlier the MI 8 and Ranjit (modified Cheetah helicopter for carrying a machine gun) and presently The MI-17 and Lancer (Cheetah Helicopter) modified for armed helicopter roles. All these armed helicopters have been used at some point of time

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by the Army and Air force — ‘Op Pawan’ in Sri lanka and ‘Operation Sarp Vinash’, in Jammu & Kashmir.

With the armed helicopter/gunship concept battle proven, began the advance AH development. The late 70’s/ early 80’s saw the advent of AH like the American Apache (AH 64A) and upgraded Huey Cobras (AH 1), the Soviet MI-24 and the Italian Mangusta (A-129). While some questioned the relevance of these dedicated AH due to increased costs over gunships, the 1991 Gulf War however put at rest any doubt about their relevance. Fleets of Apaches and Huey Cobras dominated Iraqi armour in the open desert during the Gulf War. Infact, the Apaches fired the first shots of war destroying early warning radars and SAM sites with hellfire missiles. The Soviet operations in Afghanistan during 1979-1989 saw the emergence of the MI 25/MI 35 AH. The 9/11 bombings and subsequent American foray into Afghanistan put the AH/gunships on the centre stage due to their inherent characteristics. The battle proven continued on page 42

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IAF CONDUCTING TRIALS FOR 22 ATTACK HELICOPTERS

T

MI - 28

HE INDIAN Air Force is currently conducting extensive trials for the 22 attack helicopters to be inducted in the future. The trials are being carried out in range of environment in which they will have to operate and will be evaluated on all the operational

parameters of attack helicopters including conducting attack mission in high altitude and low temperature of Ladakh.

The request for proposal for this was brought out last year and was sent to Boeing, Eurocopter, Augusta Westland, Bell, Mil and Sikorsky. The reply was received from all the manufacturers except Bell and

ACCORDING TO Wikipedia, the Mil Mi-28 (NATO reporting name ‘Havoc’) is a Russian allweather day-night military tandem two-seat anti-armour attack helicopter. It is a dedicated attack helicopter with no intended secondary transport capability, better optimised than the Mil Mi-24 for the anti-tank role. It carries a single gun in an undernose barbette, plus external loads carried on pylons beneath stub-wings Integrated avionics suite including a high precision navigational system, stabilised sighting system with optical/IR/TV channels, thermal

Sikorsky. Out of the four Eurocopter and Augusta Westland decided to opt out leaving the court open for Boeing and Mil. Boeing has offered it Apache 64D longbow and Mil has its Mi-28 NE. The deal is expected to be of around $550m. The first tender for this purpose was released in May 2008 but since the US firms could not file in

imaging system with a laser range finder, mastmounted radar, helmet-mounted target designation and display system.

The Mi-28 NE gunship is designed to engage armoured and soft-skinned-ground, sea and air targets, provide close air support to ground troops. It is capable of automated terrain following at low and very low altitude ( 10 - 25m ) using its radar and electro optical systems. It is capable of performing combat manoeuvres with vertical overload of up to 2.6 g.

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COVERSTORY

APACHE LONGBOW is the most lethal rotorcraft platform ever to enter production, with the force needed to protect the soldier by taking the fight to the adversary with technical superiority — which translates to technical overmatch when compared to threat systems that Apache Longbow crews might encounter.

Apache Longbow is the only available combat helicopter with a spectrum of capabilities for virtually any mission requirement.

Apache Longbow is uniquely suited to meet the commander’s needs — including reconnaissance, security, peacekeeping operations and lethal attack — in both land and littoral environments — all without reconfiguration.

The Apache has a fully defined road map for continuous evolution into an even more capable weapon platform. Apache Longbow is succeeding globally, demonstrat-

ing its interoperability as US and international forces operate side-by-side in peacekeeping roles In all, 11 nations fly have ordered or have selected AH64D Apache helicopters for their defence forces.

International customers include Egypt, Greece, Israel, Japan, Kuwait, The Netherlands Saudi Arabia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, and the United Kingdom, The first international AH-64D Apache was delivered to the Royal Netherlands Air Force in May 1998. More than 300 new and remanufactured international AH-64Ds have been delivered or are in production. Nearly 1,600 Apaches have been delivered to customers around the world since the Apache went into production. The Apache fleet has accumulated more than two million flight hours since the first prototype aircraft flew in 1975.

time and IAF wished to have the best system available in the world decided to bring out a fresh one last year.

Apache is one of the most advanced and effective attack helicopters to this date.

Many of the latest features that have become essential part of the modern attack helicopter were first demonstrated in the Apache. Speaking to us about their AH-64 D, Dr. Vivek Lall, Vice President and India Country Head, Boeing Defense, Space and Security said, “We believe the AH-64D Apache Longbow attack helicopters will be a capable and lethal defender of India’s troops and assets and is the only available combat helicopter with a spectrum of capabilities for virtually any mission requirement. The Apache has a fully defined road map for continuous evolution into an even more capable weapon platform.”

India as of now operates Russian Mi-35 attack helicopter procured during 1980s.

These aircrafts are old and need upgradation for operating in today’s environment.

Keeping them air worthy has become a tedious task for IAF. Its large size makes it highly susceptible to the latest anti-aircraft missiles.

Russian are offering Mi-28 NE, their latest bird in this category. Mi-28 NE along with Ka 50 is used by Russian armed forces.

Indian Air Force is already operating Mi-17 and Mi-28 helicopters from Mil. Mil-28 is generation above the Mi-35 currently being operated by IAF. India’s requirement in the RFP is for a 2.5 tonne twin-engine helicopter with allweather and all terrain ability with tandem seating and day-and-night operations capabilities. The new helicopter should also be highly maneuverable and able to deploy 20mm turret guns, rockets, air-toair and air-to-ground missiles.

It is required that it must be capable of employing air-to-ground, fire-and-forget missiles with a range of at least seven kilometeres. It must be equipped with anti-armour capabilities and capable of at high altitudes operations.

Meanwhile India’s own light combat helicopter called Light Combat Helicopter with many of the features available in both Mi-28 and AH-64 D is expected to be in its initial operational configuration around Dec 2012.

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RK Negi

LCH HAS A DECISIVE ROLE TO PLAY

What’s the role of attack helicopter in today’s manoeuvre warfare?

Attack helicopter has played a decisive role during the combat operations in last few decades.

Freed from the bounds and constraints of terrain, the attack helicopter has utilised the third dimension to dominate the modern battlefield. They provide own forces a highly mobile and lethal armour, personnel, and material destruction capability. They provide the capability to rapidly amass combat power at the time and place of its choosing; and as rapidly redirect the same combat power at another developing location thereby shaping the battlefield to its tactical advantage.

They can address the enemy’s close, deep and rear (regions) which cannot be done by groundbased weapons. The low and slow flight capability gives them an advantage, over fixed wing ground support aircraft, in sighting and engaging targets. They can thus truly exploit the enemy’s vulnerability to gain disproportionate advantage, especially in terrain providing limited cover to ground based forces. They are as effective in offensive as in defensive warfare. While they will shape and open a safe corridor for own advance columns, they will blunt or even stop enemy thrust during the defensive role.

The typical roles of attack helicopter in manoeuvre warfare will include: ❏ Support of own ground forces in conventional and urban scenario. ❏ Anti-tank role and scout duties in all weather conditions and in day or night. ❏ Combat search and rescue operations. ❏ Escort special heliborne forces and other helicopters. ❏ Suppression of enemy air defence.

ment, in terms of terrain, operating conditions and the threat environment. The attack helicopters are most effective in terrain which provides limited or nil cover to the target. The attack helicopters in Indian environment will predominantly be employed in the plains of Punjab and deserts of Rajasthan where the armour conflict is most likely. The attack helicopter will be in its element in this terrain. The terrain will also have dense air defence environment. It will require following special capabilities, especially for desert warfare: ❏ Hot and humid capability (More engine power). ❏ Engine sand filters ❏ Enhanced Visionic System (EVS) for operations in low-visibility conditions and in dusty envelope ❏ Ultra low-level capability ❏ Night-vision devices integration ❏ Self-protection suites and sensors The attack helicopters may also be employed in the mountainous terrain of J&K for limited roles against known targets/camps. These aircraft will need. ❏ Adequate power reserve to give them hot and high capability. ❏ High speed agility to be able to manoeuvre in the narrow valleys.

What is the impact of the attack helicopter in Indian capability?

The impact will be dependent on the type and number of machines procured besides the effective utilisation of these machines. Highly capable machines, employing cutting edge technology, will enhance the force capability while covering for their vulnerability. It will be a doctrinal shift in the capability and the commanders have to understand and master the helicopter employment philosophy. Similarly the pilots have to devise tactics and train to survive in the battlefield while delivering (results that match) the machine’s potential.

While the plain of north-east also provide an ideal operating environment, the lack of credible threat and riverine terrain is unsuitable for armour and therefore does not provide adequate employability to the attack helicopter assets. Attack helicopters could be effectively utilised in anti-insurgency role in the conflictridden red belt. The attack helicopter deployment lends tremendous psychological advantage to the employing forces and demoralises the adversary. It has been effectively utilised in counter insurgency operations world over. It provides top cover to on forces and also escorts the convoys in insurgency-ridden areas. Its lethal firepower can be unleashed with relative short notice and its own board modern sensors would give it the ability to seek and pinpoint the elusive guerrilla. However the likely collateral damage, highly restrictive rules of engagement and the media glare and spotlight makes this potent system a no go in this role.

India’s varied topography makes for a really versatile machine. Your views?

We have the most varied operating environ-

How do you rate the home-made LCH ?

The aircraft has to meet the stringent Air Staff requirements set by the defence HQs in terms of

capability. It has to demonstrate the high reliability factor to be a success. Claims have to be matched with performance and reliability. While the machine will generally meet the capability aspects, the still vexing issues that have afflicted Dhruv production will have to be overcome through minor changes in some of the critical systems and enhanced production quality.

What would be the ideal number of attack helicopter for Indian forces? And who should operate them? Air Force or Army?

This would require an indepth analysis. Attack helicopters are expensive machines. The projected requirement would need to be balanced with the available defence procurement budget.

There would be a requirement to maintain standing capability that would meet the need on at least one active front. A rough estimate would place the requirement of attack helicopter squadrons to six. The attack helicopter squadrons will also have to meet the commitment of providing support to UN forces in certain mission areas. These operations also provide our pilots realistic training scenarios.

The question of the force operating these machines is again one that is debatable and parochial in nature. The primacy of air power and the need to centrally control the air assets have long been advocated and practiced by most nations. Air Force has the manpower and the technology grasp to operate and exploit these machines. The attack helicopters are however primarily for the ground attack role and counter surface force operations. There is a need and justification for the ground force commander to have control of these assets. The air element commander has to be in sync with the ground force commander and his vision of the battle. Similarly the ground force commander has to understand the crew and machine’s potential and limitations and ensure that his battle plan and air asset utilisation do not unnecessarily expose the helicopter vulnerability or exceed machine and crew limitations.

What is required is a close integration of the forces. India has to seriously look at joint forces and joint command concept to get the best of both. We as a developing nation do not have the financial liberty of having two separate air forces.

(Group Captain RK Negi commanded various IAF units including frontline IAF Base and helicopter units in India and in UN mission)

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g COVERSTORY Apaches from their anti tank role in Iraq, now got into Infantry support role against the Taliban forces. The 2003 Iraq invasion saw some major reverses suffered by the Combat Helicopters in the initial stages, due to ground fire and SAMs. This was basically due to faulty tactics adopted, which were altered subsequently and success achieved. Modern-day AH has been further refined and the American Apache Longbow (AH-64D) demonstrates many of the advanced technologies being considered for deployment on future AH. The Russians are currently deploying the Ka-50 and MI-28 AH which are roughly equivalent to American Apache Longbow but without command and control link-up.

In the Indian context in the 1980’s we had a Chetak helicopter fitted with the primitive AS11B1 anti-tank missiles as an AH, though basically it only qualified as an armed helicopter. Today we have in our inventory the export version of the Russian MI-24, i.e. the MI-25/MI-35 AH. They are however vintage, though certain amount of upgrading has been carried out in making them night capable. Development of the Light Combat Helicopter (LCH) by the Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) is a milestone achievement in this direction. Presently at the trial stage, it compared with the best, based on its features as of now.

Nature of future wars will be short notice,

THE 2003 IRAQ INVASION SAW SOME MAJOR REVERSES SUFFERED BY THE COMBAT HELICOPTERS IN THE INITIAL STAGES short duration and high intensity. They will be non-linear with deeper and wider combat-zones, with emphasis on depth battle.

The AH being an offensive weapon system and part of aerial manoeuvre units is an ideal weapon system for such a conflict scenario. It is capable of massing combat power rapidly at the decisive time and place and delivering massed fire power rapidly and accurately.

The AH never fights alone due to its inherent characteristics/vulnerabilities and must always be employed as part of combined arms team. The integration with other weapon systems enhances its overall effectiveness. AH can attack the enemy forces anywhere on the battle-field due to its mobil-

DHRUV GETS ITALIAN MAKEOVER IT SEEMS that the Dhruv Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH), India’s indigenous military rotorcraft design, is struggling with a serious problem. The army, which was to be supplied 20 Dhruvs last year, refused to accept any until HAL fixed a problem that was restricting the Dhruv’s cruising speed to 250 kilometers per hour, significantly short of the 270 kmph that HAL specifications promise. Unable to find a cure, HAL has brought in a consultant: Italian aerospace propulsion major, Avio.

India’s military sets high store by the Dhruv’s engine power; the helicopter must operate from tiny landing grounds at 6,500 meters (about 21,000 feet), which is the altitude of Sonam Post, India’s highest helipad on the Siachen Glacier. But even

after paying French engine-maker, Turbomeca, Rs 1,000 crore to design the Shakti engine — a superb performer at high altitudes — the Dhruv’s Integrated Dynamic System, or IDS, which transfers power from the Shakti engines to the helicopter rotors, is not performing optimally.

That, has reduced speed, high-altitude capability, and the life of the IDS. The Italian consultants will now scrutinise the Dhruv’s IDS to diagnose the problem. Avio will start by building a single HAL-designed IDS in Avio’s facilities in Italy, using their own materials and tools.

They will then test-run this for 400-500 hours; if it works perfectly, it would be evident that the flaw lies in HAL’s manufacturing, rather than the IDS design. On the

ity and flexibility, thereby enhancing the commanders reach and facilitate the shaping of the battle-field. AH units provide the depth and simultaneity in a non-linear/noncontiguous battle-field of the future. Effective employment of AH in conjunction with ground forces requires detailed planning and coordination. Hence real-time intelligence, location of enemy deployment/weapons and plans for suppression of air defence in the tactical battle area are key towards ensuring successful operations by AH. In our ‘Cold Start Doctrine’ such forces/weapon systems can be rapidly deployed to support the initial operations, while the other elements continue to build up and deploy.

However, despite its unqualified requirement and use in various operations over the past three decades, its vulnerability to ground fire is a major concern specially in the tactical battle area and urban warfare environments. In fact, the ground threat is greater today and needs to be addressed at the planning stage. Proper planning and coordination can take care of these aspects and enable effective employment of AH even in an extremely hostile environment. The case of 38 American Apache helicopters deep attack against the dispersed armour units of the Republican Guards (Medina Division) near Karbala on 23 March 2003, resulting in total failure due to ground fire of anti-aircraft guns and other small arm fire is a vivid exam-

other hand, if the Avio-built IDS performs poorly during the test run, there is clearly a design problem. Avio will then redesign the IDS. As per plans, the army and the IAF are supposed to introduce 31 new HAL-built Dhruv Mark 3 helicopters into service this year. These are part of an order placed on HAL last year for 159 Dhruv helicopters to be supplied by 2015. Of these, 83 are utility helicopters called Dhruv Mark 3, used for transporting people. The other 76 are Mark 4 helicopters, which will be fitted with cannons, rockets, missiles and electronic warfare equipment. These are called Dhruv (Weapon Systems Integrated), or Dhruv (WSI).

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COMBAT HELICOPTERS IN NEIGHBOURHOOD THE PAKISTAN armed forces have the entire gambit of helicopters including AH as part of their Army Aviation Corps.

It holds in its inventory the Bell AH — IF (Huey Cobra AH) and is in the process of refurbishing/upgrading them specially with night capability. Induction of additional AH (latest version of Huey Cobras) is also on the cards.

With regard to China, the army lacks a dedicated AH. The limited AH force consists of approximately 30 x WZ -9’s, some gazelles and MI-17 retrofitted with rockets. However, the Chinese have now developed the Zhi-10 (Z-10) AH. This is reportedly in the same class as the Italian Mangusta and the German Tiger and has all features of a state-of-theart AH. Prototypes are presently undergoing test evaluation.

ple. However the same Apache helicopters, supported by fixed wing aircraft, staged a successful attack five days later. Change of tactics and proper planning and coordination with other weapon systems was the key.

Despite the negatives the AH has proven very useful in providing valuable ground support for infantry and mechanised columns. While slower and vulnerable to ground fire compared to the fighter aircraft, their staying power in the tactical battle area makes them more popular with the ground troops. In our context we did use the MI25/MI-35 AH in Sri Lanka during ‘Operation Pawan’ in 1987 in support of Indian and Sri Lankan forces but did not exploit its full potential. In fact there has been a burning debate why the AH were not used during the Kargil conflict. The AH was the ideal and effective weapon system for use against targets such as Tiger Hill. Possibly one of the main reasons could be the unsuitability of the MI-25/MI-35 to operate at high altitudes.

We must adept ourselves to operating in the mountains with such potent weapon systems (AH), both in the Eastern and Northern regions.

COMMAND AND CONTROL While the Navy totally controls its entire fleet of helicopters including armed ones, this issue has been a bone of contention between the Army and the Air Force ever since the birth of the Army Aviation Corps, from the erstwhile Air Observation Post units in November 1986.

The AH though Army assets continues to be manned and maintained by the Air Force, with the units being located at Air force bases. The Army has only operational control over these units. Presently there are two units of AH in our inventory. This dual control is not a very neat arrangement and needs to be addressed at the earliest.

COMBAT HELICOPTER IN COUNTER-INSURGENCY OPERATION The Indian Army has been fighting insurgency in the North-East (Nagaland, Mizoram and Manipur) for the last four decades and in Jammu and Kashmir for the last two. While the use of helicopters in both these areas has mainly been restricted to troop carriage, logistics, surveillance and casualty evacuation, we have been reluctant to use the gunships/AH. Gunships have been used in very specific cases like ‘Operation Sarp Vinash’ in the Pirpanjal ranges of Rajauri/Poonch area on May 03.

The operation resulted in the killing of a number of terrorists, as well as recovery of large-scale cache of weapons and equipment.

It has puzzled many counter-terrorism experts as to why the Indian armed forces have been reluctant to use AH/gunships specially when dealing with terrorist hideouts in jungles and mountainous ranges like the Pirpanjal. Both the Army and Air Force have suitable weapons on their helicopters like the MI-17 and Cheetah for employment in CI operations against terrorists. The basic

IN 26/11 IN MUMBAI, HELICOPTERS WERE USED EFFECTIVELY FOR DROPPING THE COMMANDOS AT OTHERWISE INACCESSIBLE POINTS

reason for not employing them is collateral damage. As per reports the Pakistani Army is using the Huey Cobra AH against the Taliban on the Afghan-Pakistan border. This is an issue on which we need to take a call.

The Americans and the Russians are both using AH against the Taliban and Chechen rebels respectively, with a number of cases resulting in collateral damage specially in urban settings. In our own 26/11 in Mumbai, helicopters were used effectively for dropping the commandos at otherwise inaccessible points. Use of gunships is however ruled out in such a situation due to heavy collateral damage likely. Not withstanding the above reason the use of combat helicopters for CI/CT operations requires us to think in new ways, employ new tools and jointly train for the same along with all agencies involved.

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT To replace the ageing AH fleet, request for proposals (RFP) have been floated for acquisition of 22 state-of-the-art AH. Trials for selection are underway (see box). At the same time the trial flights of the LCH are proceeding satisfactorily. Expected to enter service by 2014, it is likely to compete with the best.

A weaponised version of Advanced Light Helicopter (ALH) is also undergoing test flights for weapon integration. Upgraded/refurbished MI-25/MI-35 will continue to operate till new inductions.

The combat helicopter is a formidable weapon system which can turn the tide in any future conflict. Their employment must be understood and planned to their full potential.

(The author is a former Director General, Army Aviation and Commandant, School of Artillery) October 2010

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TRACKING BEYOND THE WALL ISRAEL'S CAMERO Tech Company has launched a big ticket campaign in India for its product Xaver, which is said to be of immense security utility.

Xaver is a portable and compactable system of what is called "Through-Wall Vision" that can track and observe more than one person across the wall. The system allows the operator to put the system outside any enclosed room and can monitor the movements and can know the number of people across the wall from some distance through the monitor.

This allows the forces involved in urban warfare and hostage rescue mission to know where and how many people are within the enclosed space. This prior knowledge helps in better planning and execution of operation.

The real-time tracking allows the forces to make immediate changes in operations.

This prior information saves lives. For instance, such a device would have been very useful to National Security Guards during the 26/11 operations in Mumbai.

Commandos would have known well in advance which rooms are clear and which has people in it, this would have saved time and precious lives.

Xaver is based on the 3D image reconstruction based on Ultra-Wideband (UWB) sensor design with extremely high bandwidth. It uses UWB radio frequency generating from the living objects concealed by solid barriers. This can image across variety of walls like concrete, plaster, bricks, cement and even wood. The system operates using very low energy

less than even a mobile phone.

It can operate in fire, smoke, heat and heavy electronics radiation but cannot operate against the solid metal. Chances of jamming are rare as it would require concentration of very high quantity of energy at a particular point which is almost impossible for any one to do so.

Xaver comes in two variations, Xaver 400 is small and compatible with 2D imaging capability for 4m, 8m and 10m range.

Xaver 800, with full 3D imaging, can detect up to 20m range.

The Xaver 800 utilises a cutting-edge system architecture encompassing multiple technical disciplines. A patented approach has been developed to deal better with cluttered environments and to comply with requirements for improved resolution and intuitive imaging. Rapid interpretation of complex scenarios is possible as a result of extensive research and development of proprietary 3D image reconstruction algorithms used in conjunction with sophisticated, patented signal processing techniques. A unique proprietary ultra and a very high dynamic range enable real-time operation and market-leading resolution.

A novel and patented mechanical approach has been designed for easy use during operation and transportation.

Camero's unique solutions use FCC compliant UWB RF signals to generate 3D images of objects concealed by solid barriers such as walls, made from a variety of known materials including cement, plaster, brick, concrete and wood. The Xaver 800's proprietary technology is able to overcome these obstacles while

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transmitting very low and safe levels of power.

Xaver 800 is a portable system whose unique mechanical design with folding 'wings' allows compact and easy transport.

Its operation is simple and intuitive and does not require extensive training.

Rich 3D imaging brings the scenario to life and allows easily understandable viewing from multiple angles. These unique features provide the user with crucial information from "beyond the wall', enabling highly-efficient planning of life-saving operations. The Xaver 800 also offers a number of flexible options, including using the system at a stand-off from the wall and remotely locating the sensor at a distance of more than 100 feet from the operator.

The system is very safe to use and operates on very low power signals: Total energy transmitted is a small fraction of that emitted by a standard cellular phone.

Potential market for Xaver in India is said to be huge. The company has had discussions with state police, paramilitary and National Security Guards. The response is believed to be positive.

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Peenya centre of ISRO to develop space cameras

BOY, HE CAN DECEIVE! RESEARCHERS AT the Georgia Institute of Technology may have made a terrible, terrible mistake: They’ve taught robots how to deceive.

It probably seemed like a good idea at the time. Military robots capable of deception could trick battlefield foes who aren’t expecting their adversaries to be as smart as a real soldier might be, for instance. But when machines rise up against humans and the robot apocalypse arrives, we’re all going to be wishing that Ronald Arkin and Alan Wagner had kept their ideas to themselves.

The pair detailed how they managed it in a paper published in the International Journal of Social Robotics. Two robots — one black and one red — were taught to play hide and seek. The black, hider, robot chose from three different hiding places, and the red, seeker, robot had to find him using clues left by knocked-over coloured markers positioned along the paths to the hiding places.

However, to the poor red seeker, the black robot had a trick up its sleeve. Once it had passed the coloured markers, it shifted direction and hid in an entirely different location, leaving behind it a false trail that managed to fool the red robot in 75 percent of the 20 trials that the researchers ran. The five failed trails resulted from the black robots’ difficulty in knocking over the correct markers.

“The experimental results weren’t perfect, but they demonstrated the learning and use of deception signals by real robots in a noisy environment,” Wagner says. “The results were also a preliminary indication that the techniques and algorithms described in the paper could be used to successfully produce deceptive behavior in a robot.”

When asked about whether this was really a good idea, bearing in mind the events of Terminator 2, Arkin added: “We have been concerned from the very beginning with the ethical implications related to the creation of robots capable of deception and we understand that there are beneficial and deleterious aspects. We strongly encourage discussion about the appropriateness of deceptive robots to determine what, if any, regulations or guidelines should constrain the development of these systems.”

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THREE YEARS after former Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) Chairman Madhavan Nair announced that India is seriously pursuing a space flight mission — Human Space Programme — Isro’s LEOS facility in Peenya is gearing up to develop some of the vital parts.

Laboratory for Electro-Optical System (LEOS) centre in Bengaluru is in the final stages of getting the specifications for these products approved before it could formally begin development.

The Indian Human Space Flight Programme is a proposal by ISRO to develop and launch the Orbital Vehicle to carry a two-member crew by 2015, which has got a green signal from the Government of India in February last year.

The spaceship, once developed, would be launched by India’s GSLV-Mk II launcher, Nair had said.

LEOS Director V Koteswara Rao says that his team would be developing the vision cameras and port glass panels for the orbit vehicle. He said his team has been doing research on the products and has made a final proposal which is subject to the approval from the head office and authorities concerned.

The port glass panels will be similar to panels used in present-day aircraft, with some additional applications as

the objective of the usage is different. The spacecraft would be equipped with several sensors and nano instrument and could be applied to measure various parameters of temperature and identify spots.

The vision cameras will have multiple applications on the vehicle. While it would help in collecting images, which would be compiled and studied, it would also help the crew collect information of the vehicle itself, thereby helping in monitoring it.

Given that it will be only a two-member crew, the cameras will aid them in monitoring the vehicle from all positions. For instance, if they are in one module, they will be able to view the status of other modules and positions within the vehicle with the help of these.

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INTERNAL SECURITY

DUPING BATTLE The Maoist leadership is exploiting the tribals as footsoldiers to achieve its real goal of capturing political power

FATAL ATTRACTION Rising number of extrajudicial killings is reflecting poorly on India's policing culture and efficiency

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B R I E F S Unease in Punjab again IF INTELLIGENCE Bureau Director Rajiv Mathur is to be believed, attempts are being made by “outside agencies” to forge a nexus between Sikh separatist outfits and organisations like the Lashkar-e-Taiba to revive militant activities in Punjab and abroad. It is believed that about 300 militants mainly belonging to separatist groups like Babbar Khalsa International (BKI), Khalistan Commando Force, Khalistan Zindabad Force, are operating from Germany, Pakistan, France, Switzerland, the UK and Denmark.

There are reports that joint efforts by the BKI and LeT have led to militants being sent for training to Pakistan through Nepal, Malaysia and Thailand.

CISF ready to guard Metro WHEN NAMMA Metro commences operations from Byappanahalli to Chinnaswamy Cricket Stadium by December end this year, it will be either the Central Industrial Security Force (CISF) or an elite Namma Metro Police Force that will entrusted with the security to guard the mass transit system.

CISF, which is overseeing Delhi Metro's security after it was perceived to be high on the terror radar, is willing to provide security to Namma Metro.

In fact, CISF submitted a report to BMRCL in 2006 on the type of security that the Namma Metro trains and stations would require.

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Women jihadis to hit India Indian intelligence agencies have gathered vital evidence to prove how terror camps are being run in various parts of Pakistan and Pakistanoccupied Kashmir (PoK). Operatives working for Indian intelligence have managed to procure photographs that expose the network of terror camps inside Pakistan and PoK run by organisations such as Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) and Jaish-eMohammed (JeM).

Interestingly, one of the camps operated by LeT at Shawai Nullah Camp in Muzaffarabad comprises only woman recruits, many of whom are being trained to become part of fidayeen squads who would target key installations even as they themselves get killed. These pictures formed part of a dossier on militancy in Kashmir, a document that was discussed at length during the recently concluded conference of directors general and inspectors general of police in the national Capital. Along with the pictures, the dossier provides graphic details such as satellite images of the jihadi factories operating across the border.

Other organisations that are allegedly operating their camps there include the Harkat-ulJihad-al-Islami (HuJI) and the Hizbul Mujahideen. Intelligence sources claim that the LeT camp has close to 2,000 women cadre, largely from the PoK, whose families have some India links. LeT is not only using them for subversive activities in India but also for propaganda and civil disobedience that the Valley is witnessing these days.

Chidambaram firm on Blackberry AMID APPREHENSION whether the solution provided by BlackBerry makers Research In Motion (RIM) will actually serve the purpose of real-time interception of its messenger and enterprise services in India, Home Minister P Chidambaram has said that the government is "firm" in expecting the Canadian firm to give security agencies lawful access to its encrypted data.

Home Secretary G K Pillai has recently said: "People who operate communication services in India should have servers in India as well as make available access to law enforcement agencies, whatever communications pass through telecommunication network in India and that has been made clear to RIM of BlackBerry but also to other companies.” The idea here is to ensure that there will be no discrimination. All networks operating in India will have to give access to their services

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to law enforcement agencies.

Required notices are being served by the Department of Telecommunication to all of them.

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Govt Clears Land For Army, IAF Bases

PM on police promotions Photo by H C Tiwari

Will performance be given preference over seniority in the Indian Police Service? Well that is what Prime Minister Manmohan Singh indicated recently when he advocated the need for re-calibration of the promotion system in the police forces for better performance and motivation. He has said that a successful stint in an extremism-affected district should result in greater career benefits to the officers.

"Within the police forces, the current system of promotion is based essentially on seniority. It needs to be suitably recalibrate to catalyse better performance and motivation," Singh said addressing the three-day Conference of Directors General and Inspectors General of Police in Delhi organised recently by the Intelligence Bureau.

Cooperative terror inputs IN THE wake of terror inputs, the Delhi Police has asked Anti-Terrorism Squads (ATS) of nearby states such as Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan and Haryana to share information on funding, purchase of explosive materials and movement of terrorists and sleeper cells.

Security agencies and Delhi Police personnel are in a tizzy over recent inputs on terrorists based in Kashmir and Pakistan heard talking about the Commonwealth Games in October. Intelligence agencies, which intercepted the messages, have alerted the Delhi Police about it and asked it to keep a check on the movement of suspected militants, especially those travelling on trains and buses through the Haryana-Delhi border. The US has also asked its citizens to exercise caution during the Commonwealth Games though it has received no specific information on terrorist threats. Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana ATS teams have been asked to keep a tab on purchase of ammonium nitrate, potassium nitrate, ball bearings, timers and SIM cards in bulk from any shop or dealer from their states. Passengers travelling by rail or bus to Delhi would also be checked.

According to interceptions picked up by the IB, two commanders of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) have been heard talking about striking markets and important buildings in Delhi between October 3 and 14. Officials fear that militants may try to mingle among spectators during the Games or try to hide out among colonies in Delhi and NCR, waiting for the time to strike.

THE DECKS have been cleared for the setting-up of an airbase near Bhilai in Chhattisgarh, which is expected to enable swifter air support for anti-Naxalite operations. The government has cleared hurdles in land acquisition for establishing the first Army and Indian Air Force bases in the Naxal-infested state, significantly increasing the military's presence in the troubled region.

The Army, which provides training and advice to the police, will soon get its own sub-area headquarters in Chhattisgarh, spread over 3,000 acres near Bilaspur, which will be headed by a brigadier.

The IAF base, meant to give the Air Force a second-strike capability, will allow drones to overfly Maoist hotbeds and also reduce response time for helicopters in case of a confrontation between the rebels and security forces.

RK Medhekar appointed NSG chief SPECIAL DIRECTOR General of Border Security Force (BSF) R K Medhekar has been appointed as the new Chief of National Security Guard, the elite commando force deployed for protecting VIPs and swift action in case of hostage crisis. A 1975 batch IPS officer, Medhekar belongs to the Kerala cadre. He replaces N P S Aulakh, a 1972 batch IPS officer.

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REINING THE DIRTY HARRYS

Though there are adequate laws to deal with the growing phenomenon of encounter killings all over the country, an obvious decline in social, political and institutional mores appear to create acceptance for it, says AJAY K. MEHRA

T

HE ‘ENCOUNTER’ killing of Soharabuddin Sheikh, a historysheeter criminal, and his wife Kausar Bi by a Gujarat Police team led by DCP D.G. Vanjara on 23 November 2005 shook the state police in April 2007. It lead to the arrest of the police officers concerned, including Vanjara, whose astronomical rise in the ranks and amassed pelf was later exposed. That deed has now returned to haunt the state government with the arrest of Minister of State of Home Amit Shah, a close confidante of Chief Minister Narendra Modi.

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Whatever the result of this latest twist in the tale of police indiscretion, this is not the first one, and all of them raise many questions on police and policing in India.

‘Encounter', literally meaning ‘meet as adversary’ and ‘confront in battle’, has an unseemly presence in the policing lexicon.

The criminals are the only police adversaries and they fight battles only against crime and lawlessness; but within a legal framework, which regulates the use of force by them.

Organised crime and the politics of terror do require war-like strategies, but operating within the civic terrain, discretion has to be their watchword even under the most difficult circumstances.

Of course, as former Chief Justice of India and the present chairperson of the National Human Rights Commission K. G. Balakrishnan pointed out recently, “encounters are unavoidable sometimes ... the law and order problem is increasing. Criminals are taking law into their hands, attacking even the police.

Police have to take control of the situation."

While emphasising that there must be checks and balances to ensure that fake encounters do not take place, Justice Balakrishnan cited how extrajudicial executions of persons suspected to be involved with the Mumbai underworld gangs and those alleged as Naxalites in Andhra Pradesh drew popular approval.

But that does not mean that any police organisation in a democratic polity having personnel designated as ‘encounter specialists’, who are lauded, promoted and decorated at the national level, should defy the rule of law, howsoever unusual circumstances the country might be facing.

Yet this has been prevalent in India for nearly four decades and with internal security October 2010

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NHRC : A odyssey in red tapism

challenges of violent nature — Maoism, insurgency, terrorism, organised crime, even criminalisation of politics — mounting over decades, its intensity too is increasing. There is no authentic data on encounter killings by the police and security forces in India. The NHRC lists the cases reported to it or taken by it suo moto, but year and state-wise data is not available on its website. Various civil liberties organisations concentrate on individual cases, troubled states and larger issues.

The information accessed by an RTI activist Afroz Alam Sahil states that since October 1993, 2560 cases of police encounters have been reported to the National Human Rights Commission, 1224 of them have been found to be fake (see box). Interestingly, the NHRC awarded compensation only in sixteen of these cases. Another account gives 122 encounter deaths for 2006 for the country, Uttar Pradesh topped with 82. Of the 95 reported for India in 2007, 48 were from UP. In 2008 too UP topped the list with 41 out of 103 and the state had a figure of 83 in 2009.

Though neither authentic, nor comprehensive and comparative, it gives an interesting twist to debating this phenomenon. While the citizens in the troubled states in the country are facing a threat to ‘life and personal liberty’ guaranteed under Article 21 and reinforced by Article 22 of the Constitution of India following an intense debate on whether the guarantee should be as per the ‘procedure established by law’ as provided, or as per the ‘due process of law’ as recommended by the committee on fundamental rights and as most members of the Constituent Assembly wanted, a state facing no serious public security threat tops in

fake police encounters.

Indeed, this data may not really give us the real picture, but it does indicate a serious problem with the organisational culture, efficiency and professional ethics of the police and public security institutions in India. Police ‘encounter’ is now being attributed in human rights circles as an Indian (at the most a South Asian) innovation, though police in the several South East Asian, African and Latin American countries are also known for illegal ‘elimination’ of criminals as well as innocent citizens, many of whom could be political opponents of the powers that be. Obviously, whether or not UP really tops in ‘encounters', the high number indicates serious aberrations that could be linked not only to extra-legal, but socio-political considerations, endangering lives of weaker and marginalised sections of society. With the state topping also in criminalisation of politics, a police-criminal nexus could also not be ruled out. A fact that emerged with the ‘dirty harrys’ of the Mumbai Police. These are obviously not UP-centric phenomena.

Obviously, the states under insurgency and/or terrorism put each citizen under suspect’s list, increasing chances of physical elimination. The methods of encounter recorded reveal that even in cases of severe torture or custodial deaths, the police and the security forces concerned are known to have taken the person to isolated spots, shot her/him and declared an ‘encounter'. Obviously, this calls for serious public security sector reforms.

The Dirty Harrys, commonly referred as ‘encounter specialists’ in police, many of whom have been highly decorated too, such cops are thus legal and constitutional

SINCE OCTOBER 1993, 2560 cases of police encounters have been brought into the notice of National Human Rights Commission (NHRC). Of them, according to the NHRC, 1224 cases have been found fake encounters.

It means that roughly every second police encounter is fake in the country. The information has been accessed by RTI activist Afroz Alam Sahil after several attempts.

Another interesting point the data reveals is that of 1224 fake encounters, the NHRC ordered for compensation in only 16 cases.

He sought information on three counts: number of police encounter cases reached NHRC so far, number of fake encounters among them and details of these fake encounters.

But it took him almost one year and a lot of blood burning to get the information though incomplete.

How Afroz Alam Sahil got all this information is a story in itself exposing the lethargic attitude of the Commission in giving out

information, particularly this one related to fake encounters. Let's see it in chronological order. (When he failed to get information in 2008 he filed fresh petition in 2009). ❁ March 2, 2009: He filed fresh petition asking information on seven questions. ❁ March 30, 2009: He was informed his petition was sent to Law Division in NHRC ❁ April 8, 2009: He got a letter asking him to deposit Rs 1480 as the information will be in 740 pages. ❁ April 23, 2009: He deposited the amount with the Commission. He was given two-page information answering his seven Qs and asked to call after two days and get full report from office. He phoned but was told report is not ready.

He phoned several times and visited the office many times but in vain. ❁ May 22, 2009: He was phoned to tell him deposit Rs 2216 more as the report

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anachronisms, despite carrying larger than life images that they are unable to carry on their feeble shoulders. ‘Encounter’ has no reference in any legal instruments in India. The police in India are traditionally unarmed. The norms for allocation of firearms to various ranks are well laid out and so is their use, mostly under magisterial watch. The courts do not recognise ‘encounter’ as a method of policing; it is a response to an exceptional circumstance of attack on the police in the performance of duty.

Section 46 of the Criminal Procedure Code proscribes touching an arrestee ‘unless there be it submission to the custody by word or action'. It is only on forcible resistance or evasion by the arrestee that an officer can ‘use all means necessary to affect the arrest'. However, a cop still does not have ‘a right to cause the death of a person who is not accused of an offence punishable with death or with imprisonment for life’. Sections 99 and 100 of the Indian Penal Code read together amplify the limits to private defence to public officials in discharge of their duties — under Section 99 ‘no right of private defence against an act which does not reasonably cause the apprehension of death or of grievous hurt'; ‘no right of private defence against an act which does not reasonably cause the apprehension of death or of grievous hurt’; ‘the right to private defence in no case extends to the inflicting of more harm than it is necessary to inflict for the purpose of defence'.

Section 100 supplements Section 99, ‘The right of private defence of the body extends to the voluntary causing of death or of any other harm to the assailant if (i) (s)uch an assault as will be in 1848 pages.

May 23, 2009: He was phoned to tell that the report will be in 1860 pages and he will need to deposit Rs 740 more. ❁ May 23, 2009: He filed first appeal with NHRC detailing all this drama. ❁ June 19, 2009: He got a letter that said he will get information in 1840 pages and his Rs 1480 will be returned. ❁ July 8, 2009: He got a draft of Rs 1480 but no information. ❁ August 13, 2009: He gave a written complaint to the NHRC. ❁ August 31, 2009: He filed second appeal with CIC. One month later he was called from NHRC that the report is ready and he can collect it from office. When he went he was given 1111-page report in place of 1848 or 1860 pages. The CIC has not yet conducted hearing on his second appeal. ❁

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g INTERNALSECURITY may reasonably cause the apprehension that death will otherwise be the consequence of such assault; (b) (s)uch an assault as may reasonably cause the apprehension that grievous hurt will otherwise be the consequence of such assault; (iii) (a)n assault with the intention of committing rape; (iv) (a)n assault with the intention of gratifying unnatural lust; (v) (a)n assault with the intention of kidnapping or abducting; (vi) (a)n assault with the intention of wrongfully confining a person, under circumstances which may reasonably cause him to apprehend that he will be unable to have recourse to the public authorities for his release.’

Yet India has had its Dirty Harrys, who in crossing the limits of law developed personal ambitions. Delhi Police ACP Rajbir Singh’s mysterious murder in March 2008, followed by dismissal of Mumbai Police ‘encounter specialist’ Inspector Pradeep Sharma (reinstated on May 7, 2009) became the talking point for their linkages for personal gratification. Preceded by four notorious cases of ‘encounter’ specialists in Mumbai (Daya Nayak, Praful Bhonsle, Ravindar Angre and Sachin Vaze), one in Delhi (S.S. Rathi) and a cruel one in Gujarat (DG Vanzara), opened inconclusive discussion on criminal linkages of such cops that deserve discourse the police and policing in India.

Word ‘encounter’ became noticeable in the lexicon of the Indian police with the antiNaxal operations in Andhra Pradesh in the 1970s. A committee constituted by Jayaprakash Narayan with Justice (retd) V.M. Tarkunde as chairman post-emergency made alarming revelations about state practice on ‘encounters’ in its report titled ‘Encounters are Murders'. It confirmed involvement of the police in Andhra Pradesh in the cruel practice of committing planned murders and covering it up as encounter and recommended an independent commission of inquiry.

Later, counter-terrorism strategies and operations in Punjab during the 1980s and 1990s again brought encounter into focus.

Despite eliminating terrorism from Punjab, K.P.S. Gill’s operations left behind an enduring trail of controversies. Violent Deaths and Enforced Disappearances During the Counterinsurgency in Punjab, India by Romesh Silva, Jasmine Marwah and Jeff Klingner for Ensaaf and Human Rights Data Analysis Group (Palo Alto, CA, 2009) argues empirically that ‘the intensification of counterinsurgency operations in Punjab in the early 1990s was accompanied by a shift in state violence from targeted lethal human rights violations to systamatic enforced disappearances extrajudicial executions, accompanied by mass “illegal cre-

“ENCOUNTERS ARE UNAVOIDABLE SOMETIMES ...

THE LAW AND ORDER PROBLEM IS INCREASING. CRIMINALS ARE TAKING LAW INTO THEIR HANDS, ATTACKING EVEN THE POLICE. POLICE HAVE TO TAKE CONTROL OF THE SITUATION.” NHRC CHIEF, K. G. BALAKRISHNAN mations.”

In 1997 People’s Union for Civil Liberties went to the Bombay High Court against encounter killings of some innocents described by the Mumbai Police as gangsters.

In allowing the petition registered as ‘People’s Union for Civil Liberties and Another vs State of Maharashtra and Others’ on 10 December 1997, Justice A.P. Shah observed: “At least prima facie we find substance in the allegation of the petitioner that there is a general pattern in these FIRs. We make it clear that that this Court is not oblivious to the difficulties faced by the police in tackling witch organised crime with has taken root in the society…. But all this cannot justify police resorting to extra judicial methods. As observed by the Supreme Court in D.K. Basu v. State of W.B., “cure cannot be worse than the disease itself.”

The Andhra Pradesh High Court Judgment of February 2009 in Andhra Pradesh Civil Liberties Committee (APCLC) case gave a new dimension to the debate on encounter deaths. Coming in the wake of roughly 1,800 encounter deaths in the state during 19972007, a five judge bench of the Andhra Pradesh High Court not only retraced its own directives of 1997, it also set aside the NHRC guidelines. In stating that it was not required to register a criminal case against the police personnel in all cases of encounter deaths, the HC held that an FIR against the police personnel in incidents of encounter death shall be registered only if a specific complaint is made alleging that an identified individual has caused the death of such a person.

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It meant that some one must come forward to challenge the alleged encounter death and name the individual police officer.

The 2009 judgment of the five-judge bench the appeal was referred to stressed that: a) in all cases of encounter death at the hands of the police, an FIR must be registered, b) an independent and impartial investigation be ensured, and c) the plea for self-defence has to be established at the stage of trail not during the course of investigation.

This judgement, however, was challenged by the state Police Association in the Supreme Court arguing that the HC ignored the challenges faced by them in combating Maoism. During the hearing early this year counsel for the APCLC Mr. Sachar pleaded for vacating the interim stay of the judgment, and said that FIR should be registered in each case and investigation must proceed.

CJI told the counsel, “We can’t fully endorse the judgment. Since serious directions are issued, we will have to examine them. If we have to accept what you say then all police officers involved in the Mumbai terrorist attack of November 26, 2008 should face criminal cases.” The debate continues.

The NHRC framed guidelines on encounter deaths on 29 March 1997, which were revised on 2 December 2003. The guidelines make it mandatory to make appropriate registration of a case in case of a police encounter, handing over investigation to an independent agency, registration on an FIR against an officer on complaint, magisterial inquiry in all such cases, prompt prosecution of and disciplinary action against the accused, compensation to the dependents of the person, no out-of-turn promotion and gallantary award soon after the occurrence and a six-monthly report to be sent by the Director General of Police to the NHRC on January 15 and July 15 every year.

Indeed, constitutional, legal and human rights framework are in place in India to prevent ‘encounters’ by its police. However, an obvious decline in social, political and institutional mores appears to create acceptance for it. This deserves a serious social campaign. Lately, in the context of special laws against extremism, particularly in Jammu and Kashmir and the North-East, justification for encounter deaths have been advanced. However, can any law of the land be above the Constitution! ‘Encounters’ create an organisational culture of violence that deserves to be arrested.

(The author is Director, Centre for Public Affairs, Noida) October 2010

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SPURIOUS CLAIM Equating Maoist violence with tribal issues amounts to misunderstanding of both the Maoists and the tribal problems, writes D.M. (JOHN) MITRA.

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HERE HAS been a lot of confusion regarding the relationship between left-wing extremism and tribal issues. The confusion arises because of the fact that almost all of the core areas of Maoist violence/influence lie in the inaccessible forest and hilly areas, inhabited by tribals. However, it has to be understood that Maoist rebellion is neither a tribal militancy nor about tribal development.

If we understand an issue wrongly, we are likely to come up with wrong prescriptions. That is why the so-called solutions or recommendations to end Maoist violence are often directly related to tribal issues. It is implied that Maoist rebellion is a result of neglecting tribal issues, thereby implying that if we can take care of tribal issues, Maoist violence will automatically be taken care of. While one is not undervaluing the importance of tribal issues or ignoring the fact that Maoist violence brought our attention to these remote and inaccessible areas which have been administratively neglected by us for decades, equating Maoist rebellion with tribal issues is highly simplistic.

The Maoists are not fighting merely for the ethnic groups (whom) we call tribals.

Rather than talking of tribal or caste identities, the Maoists would talk of classes, as according to them, identity politics “divides the masses; what is required is a class approach that unites the masses, including the oppressed”.

Therefore, Maoist violence should not be seen as tribal militancy.

According to the Maoists, the mineral-rich region between “Lalgarh in West Bengal to Surjagarh in Maharashtra”, which is “primarily adivasi (tribal) region”, is subjected to indiscriminate loot by “the imperialists, Comprador Bureaucratic Bourgeoise, feudals and fascist state”. Maoists feel that they need to work for the emancipation of the oppressed adivasis and local people living in these areas for the success of the Maoists’ revolution. The tribal problem is, thus, one component of Maoists’ overall revolutionary strategy that targets much beyond the tribal areas and the people living in them. As Mao has likened people to water and guerrilla to the fish who inhabit it, at the moment when the Maoist influence is limited to the forest and inaccessible areas inhabited

by the tribals, the fish appear to be living in tribal water. However, the Maoists aim to spread beyond this region into the bigger water till they reach the urban centres. Therefore, Maoist objectives do not start or end with the tribal problem. Solution of tribal problem cannot be used for motivating the Maoists to give up their violent revolution.

The Maoists’ objectives transcend any ethnic or communal group. At the national level, they are looking at the entire population, though following the classic Maoist doctrine they have started from remote areas where the strength of the state and its agencies is the weakest. Their long-term strategy is to keep expanding their area of influence, to create more liberated zones and to ultimately surround the urban centres where the state is supposed to be the strongest. Inaccessible forest areas were chosen by the Maoists (erstwhile Peoples War Group) because they provide excellent havens for the rebels.

As Che Guevara said: “At the outset, the essential task of the guerrilla fighter is to keep himself from being destroyed... the guerrilla, having taken up inaccessible positions out of reach of the enemy, or having assembled forces that deter the enemy from attacking, ought to proceed to the gradual weakening of the enemy.” In China or Latin America of those days, Che found “the situation in the open country is [was] not so difficult [for the revolutionary]. There, in places beyond the reach of the repressive [government] forces…, the inhabitants can be supported by the armed guerrillas.” Similarly, earlier Naxalites

SOLUTION OF TRIBAL PROBLEM CANNOT BE USED FOR MOTIVATING THE MAOISTS TO GIVE UP THEIR VIOLENT REVOLUTION

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like Charu Majumdar found rural areas like Naxalbari and Parvatipuram ideal for starting their revolution. However, later Naxalites like C. P. Reddy and others did not think the same and went deeper into more inaccessible areas.

The inaccessibility of an area limits penetration by the state into its population in a significant way. In India the most inaccessible areas are both forested and hilly. The author has found that “77 per cent of forests lie in areas having an average slope of more than 45 degrees”. These hilly and forested areas are devoid of much economic activities as well as population density. Since government agencies owe their existence to the number of citizens they may serve in an area and the level of functional requirement they have in that area, these sparsely populated areas have very few government agents including policemen posted there. Though, theoretically every inch of land comes under jurisdiction of some police station/court, in reality such a police station in these remote and inaccessible areas often have a large area under its jurisdiction with very little strength to really police the area.

On the other hand, due to the inaccessibility and lack of roads the inhabitants of the area find such a police station too remote for their needs. Thus, presence of government including police is nil or negligibly thin in these areas, making it ideal for the insurgents to remain beyond the radar of government and police. Therefore, when C. P. Reddy and other early Maoists went into Nallamalla forest, they were trying to avoid detection by the government’ s radar, rather than to limit their revolutionary objectives to emancipation of ethnic minorities living in those areas.

Inaccessible areas in the Third World, as compared to those in the First World, have many other advantages for the guerrillas.

Industrialisation has escaped most of the Third World. Even in few countries in the Third World where industrialisation has taken place, it has been only in the last half a century or so, compared to about 250 years of industrialisation in the First World. Consequently, compared to the First World, not only that great majority of the population in the Third World live in the rural areas, one can also find isolated population, practically October 2010

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cut off from country’ s political and economic system, living in remote and inaccessible areas. As Mao has likened people to water and guerrilla to the fish who inhabit it, such areas in the First World are not of much use for the revolutionaries, being devoid of population. On the other hand, the forests of Andhra Pradesh, which provided the Maoists their initial niche, provided both security and availability of inhabitants necessary for their guerrilla methodology.

Thus, the Maoists have their strongest bases in the forested and inaccessible areas because of the scattered tribal population available in these areas. Unless the Maoists are able to spread their influence beyond the inaccessible areas, the coincidence between areas of Maoist influence and tribal areas will shape people’ s perception regarding the socalled tribal base of Maoist violence.

Some people, while distinguishing Maoist violence from tribal issues, point out that lack of development, governance, opportunities and facilities in the inaccessible tribal areas have provided the enabling factors for Maoists to grow in those areas. Therefore, if the government can remove these deficits from these areas, it will take the wind out of the Maoists’ sails. However, the relationship between a

phenomenon and its causal or enabling factors is not that simple. A forest fire may start due to the combination of a very hard sun and presence of dry leaves, but once the fire starts it does not stop even after the sun sets or all the dry leaves are removed. Secondly, the fire itself can stop you from reaching the forest bed and removing the leaves. So is the case of the Maoists. Their influence in many areas has outgrown its initial stage of complete dependence on the initial enabling factors. They have created their own survival conditions like steady sources of income, arms & ammuni-

FOR SECURITY REASONS MAOISTS HAVE BEEN OPPOSING MANY DEVELOPMENTAL ACTIVITIES

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tion, large number of recruits, working relationship with sections of businessmen, employees and other local influential persons, and networks of sympathisers and agents.

Thirdly, for security reasons, they have been opposing many developmental activities like building of roads, schools etc. In their core areas of influence they are able to stop such developmental activities through violent means.

Therefore, interpreting Maoist violence through tribal issues or trying to solve Maoist violence through tribal issues is misunderstanding both Maoist rebellion and its handling. This does not mean that tribal problem and tribal issues are not real or less important or can be ignored. Wherever possible, government should address them with all earnestness and urgency. Removal of enabling factors may not reverse the process but can prevent further spread of Maoist influence. However, in the areas where Maoists are already well entrenched, removal of enabling factors alone without first quelling the Maoists is neither possible, nor will be effective for controlling the Maoists.

(The author is Additional Director General of Police, Madhya Pradesh) October 2010

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AN ENDURING AFFAIR Rooted deeply in history, relations between India and South Africa are warm, cooperative and multidimensional, bringing rich dividends to both

FAILED STATES SYNDROME

THE ENGAGING RACE

India’s search for constituencies of goodwill in the troubled neighbourhood needs momentum

The Indian tiger and the Chinese dragon will determine the contours of the Asian century

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India is said to be encircled by “failed states” in South Asia. It is a worrisome scenario since many conflict zones within India share borders with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar, which have an abysmally poor record in democratic governance and are globally seen as verging on the precipice of failure. D SUBA CHANDRAN analyses ❁ Lawless hinterland ❁ Corrupt administration ❁ Inept government

❁ Increasing unemployment ❁ Growing radicalism ❁ Rise of factionalised elites ❁ Lack of democracy ❁ Non existent social services ❁ Porous borders

❁ Overwhelmed by extremism ❁ Non functional government ❁ Faceoff with judiciary

❁ Major internal security woes ❁ Woeful neglect of social sectors ❁ Burgeoning population

❁ Ravaged by cyclones and floods ❁ Ever growing population ❁ Rising fundamentalism

❁ Violent socio-political conflicts ❁ Internal displacement and migration of people ❁ Criminalisation of the state organs

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HE LATEST annual report (2010) on the Failed States Index (FSI), published by the US Funds for Peace, provides invaluable insights into the state of nations. While Pakistan and Afghanistan figure amongst the top 15, Bangladesh, Myanmar and Sri Lanka figure on the top 25, in a list of 178 countries, which is headed by Somalia, Chad and Sudan.

The Failed States Index consists of 178 countries, in which Sweden, Norway, Finland Australia, US, Canada and the most of Europe appear in the last 25, meaning they are far away being bracketed as failing or failed States. India is ranked 79, while Maldives and Bhutan are ranked 84 and 50 respectively. China is ranked 62.

Of course, one may question the methodology employed by the FSI in ranking the States as failed or failing. However, one should appreciate the efforts and categorisation that the FSI has used. The FSI ranking is based on twelve parameters, grouped under three categories — social, economic and political, in which each country’s risk was measured in a scale of one to ten. These twelve parameters and the rank of countries in the region are tabulated, which include the following: demographic pressure, movement of refugees and internally displaced, group paranoia seeking vengeance, sustained human flight, uneven economic development, sharp economic decline, criminalisation of the State, deterioration of public services, arbitrary use of rule of law, security apparatus operating as a “State within the State", rise of factionalised elites and external intervention.

Even, if one is to use the same parameters of the FSI, from a totally Indian perspective, one is likely to reach the same conclusion — that India is surrounded by a ring of failing States (if not already failed). Worse, the situation is unlikely to get better.

Consider the following social, economic and political issues/indicators, which have been referred to by the FSI 2009 as well. There is a mounting demographic pressure, all around India, which, of course, is a common trend in most of the Third World. This is something, none of the South Asian countries could do much, including India. Except Sri Lanka and Bhutan, the rest in South Asia has scored 8 plus on this parameter.

DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE AND THE YOUTH BULGE What is important in reading the demographic pressure is the youth bulge, which is only likely to expand further. This is where the mounting demographic pressure is likely to pose a bigger threat to countries surrounding

India is in terms of the ability of the governments to provide to the growing population.

In particular, this population increase, resulting in a huge youth bulge in and around India, will require suitable measures in terms of education, employment and a decent standard of life. How many countries in India’s neighbourhood, from Afghanistan to Myanmar and Nepal to Sri Lanka have the potential to provide the above?

The failure to provide for the increasing youth bulge is most likely to result in unrest, which is likely to be attracted by radical groups and extremist organisations. The violence one sees in Maoist and insurgency areas in Central India and Northeast, Nepal, FATA, Balochistan, Punjab, Sindh and Myanmar are undoubtedly the result of the State-failure to address the needs of the youth. With State failing to provide for them, the youth invariably gets absorbed into radical groups, with different ideologies.

INCREASING VIOLENCE AND INTERNAL DISPLACEMENT This is where the third indicator of the FSI is useful in terms of — legacy of vengeanceseeking group grievance or group paranoia.

All the states in South Asia, except Maldives, have a score of seven plus, with Afghanistan.

Pakistan, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka having nine and above. The easy availability of weapons from grenades to machine guns and the inability of the government to control them have only added to the problem. Every group attempts to maximize its weapons possession, trapping them in a vulnerable-invulnerable paradox. Pakistan and Afghanistan are classis cases today; the failure of State in particular to control the hate groups — sectarian and jihadi and their support base — the madrassas, will prove to be costly to maintain social stability in the near future.

As a result of the mounting demographic pressure, youth bulge and group grievances are leading to violent social and political conflicts, and there is likely to be a massive movement of refugees and displaced people (IDPs).

THERE IS A MOUNTING DEMOGRAPHIC PRESSURE, ALL AROUND INDIA, IN MOST OF THE THIRD WORLD.

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Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan score eight plus on this indicator, while other countries in the region score less than six, with India scoring the least. While considering Pakistan’s case on this parameter, the conflict in Afghanistan, ongoing violence in the Federally Administered Tribal Regions (FATA), State violence in Balochistan and the sectarian violence all over Pakistan have created an unstable situation in respective areas, triggering large scale movement of people.

Besides, the States in South Asia surrounding India have always been found wanting in tackling natural disasters, resulting in huge displacement. One is not sure about the result of the devastation caused by the floods in Pakistan in July-August 2010; according to UN estimate, millions of people are displaced and have no roof to live under. Bangladesh and Myanmar have also witnessed massive cyclones in the recent years; the delivery mechanisms in these countries are simply incapable of addressing the situation and have always been heavily depending on international aid.

FAILURE OF GOVERNANCE AND THE CRIMINALISATION OF THE STATE What is important from an Indian perspective is the slow but steady failure of State and its delivery mechanisms in India’s neighbourhood. The FSI indicator — criminalisation and/or delegitmisation of the State, is close to this point; except India, all other states in South Asia score close to eight and above.

Another related indicator is progressive deterioration of public services, again a common feature in the entire region.

If India’s neighbourhood is in trouble today, the future is likely to be even more troublesome. Failure of the State and its delivery mechanisms in the region is likely to make the region conflict prone and violent.

SHOULD INDIA BE WORRIED? If the State is failing in India’s neighbourhood, should New Delhi be worried? How is the State failure in the region likely to affect India’s security and stability?

While India is relatively stable at a larger level, there are pockets and sub regions, which are facing serious conflicts, for example J&K and India’s northeast. Except for Central India, where it is facing a growing Naxalite-led insurgency, the rest of conflict regions in India share borders with Pakistan, Bangladesh and Myanmar. The unresolved conflict in J&K and the ongoing violence there have the potential to get worse, if the situation in Afghanistan and Pakistan continues to remain violent.

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THE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT DOES NOT RUN BEYOND KABUL AND HAMID KARZAI PRESIDENT HAMID KARZAI RARELY STEPS OUT OF HIS PALACE. HE WON AN ELECTION LAST AUGUST THAT IS VIEWED AS LESS THAN FAIR AND THE ADMINISTRATION IS HUGELY CORRUPT. MANY WONDER WHAT WILL HAPPEN WHEN THE US WITHDRAWS AS ANNOUNCED NEXT YEAR.

MULLAH OMAR AND OSAMA BIN LADEN ARE HAVING A FREE RUN ASIF ALI ZARDARI AMONGST THE TRIBALS. NO WONDER PAKISTAN IS DESCRIBED AS ONE OF THE MOST DANGEROUS PLACES ON EARTH. PRESIDENT ZARDARI IS WEAK AND INEFFECTIVE AND AS THE GOVERNMENT TOTTERS, THE WORST FLOODS IN 100 YEARS HAS BROUGHT THE COUNTRY TO THE BRINK.

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 20 YEARS THERE WILL BE GENERAL THAN SHWE ELECTIONS IN BURMA, BUT THE OPPOSITION DOESN’T HAVE A VOICE, THE CONSTITUTION EMPOWERS THE MILITARY. NO ONE KNOWS THE STATE OF AFFAIRS BEHIND THE BAMBOO CURTAIN EXCEPT THAT THE GENERALS ARE GOING NOWHERE AND THE POVERTY IS GRINDING.

A nightmare scenario may arise when the US forces leave Afghanistan. With a weak Afghan National Army and weaker Afghan National Police, the Karzai government faces imminent danger of destabilisation. The government and its institutions, starting from Karzai to the administration in district level, are considered to be highly corrupt and inefficient. The Afghan police and army are illtrained and highly divided over ethnic faultlines. The Karzai government has no legitimacy in rural areas; in fact, many consider that Karzai’s writ runs only in Kabul, that too, only during the day.

Taliban is expanding its bases and operations; it is only a matter of time that Kabul is likely to witness one more President shot and hung in a post; unless, Karzai deals with the devil. This is where, the attempts by the international community to find the “good” Taliban and negotiate with it to find a reasonable solution is likely to backfire for India.

Presuming that the Taliban is able to come back (with or without Karzai), what will happen to the Indian investments in Afghanistan, which is over $1.3 billion? More importantly, what will be the ideological

backlash of a Taliban takeover in Afghanistan?

One is likely to see a wave of Taliban influence spreading across the Durand Line, sweeping into the Federally Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) of Pakistan, and then further into Punjab. While Pakistan may be willing to live with a Taliban influence in the FATA (for it may a prefer a Talabainised FATA acting counter to any resurgence of pashtun nationalism), what will Islamabad and its intelligence agencies do, if it spreads into Punjab?

There are already fears of a Punjabi Taliban; it is no secret that many of the sectarian organisations of Punjab, including the dreaded Sipah-e-Sahaba and Lashkar-e-Jhangvi have been fighting along with the Taliban in Swat and FATA. Besides, Jaishe-e-Mohammad has also been fighting along with the Taliban.

Pakistan will have two options, when these jihadis return to Punjab, after the Taliban takeover in Afghanistan. First option is to fight them and the second is to divert them to J&K. Pakistan has done the same in the past; it was no coincidence, that there were numerous Pashtun militants in Kashmir in early 1990s, when the jihad against the Soviet Union came to an end. The ISI, in all likeli-

hood, will divert these battle hardened Punjabi jihadis into J&K, along with some pashtuns as well.

On the eastern side, India has been facing an onslaught of illegal movement of people from Bangladesh, and a serious trafficking in drugs and arms, from Southeast Asia, primarily through Myanmar. While IndoBangladesh relations may have improved at a macro level, there is still a movement of people from Bangladesh into India’s northeast.

Irrespective of the improvement of bilateral relations, this illegal movement is likely to continue because of the failure of governance in Bangladesh. Will Sheikh Hasina be able to make an effective dent on this movement?

Unlikely, for she and her party will have to take care of local constituencies and sentiments. On the other hand, Myanmar will continue to remain violent; the forthcoming elections will be yet another farce, with serious implications for the regional security.

In North and South of India, Nepal and Sri Lanka will continue to remain a major security challenge for the following reasons.

Despite the end of the LTTE, there has not been any evidence so far to prove that the

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IT’S NO SURPRISE THAT BANGLADESH IS IMPROVING SHEIKH HASINA

BY THE DAY. THERE IS DEMOCRACY, RULE OF LAW AND STABILITY. BUT THE EXTREMISTS CONTINUE TO REGROUP, THE ECONOMY IS STILL FAR FROM STABLE AND THE YOUNG COUNTRY IS STILL TO FIND ANSWERS TO VAGARIES OF NATURE THAT SAVAGE ITS WAISTLINE. majority Sinhalese is willing to live with the Tamils and evolve a political structure that would address the grievances of the minority communities. This “Tamil” problem is likely to play an important political role as far as stability in Tamil Nadu in India is concerned.

Nepal, on the other hand, continues to struggle with reaching an understanding on the political structure, with leading actors — the Nepali Congress, United Marxist Leninist and the Maoists unable to reach an understanding to form any kind of government or start a reasonable road map, ending up in writing a constitution. What is worrying is the increasing fractured nature of politics, with numerous non-state actors in the Terai region — all fighting with no breakthrough in the near future. Though divided inside, these actors are almost unanimous — in their hatred towards India.

A REGIONAL POLICY? Now, what can India do about, in terms of security of the region? What is clearly lacking is an overall approach by New Delhi to win sizeable constituencies in its neighbourhood, which will help us in the long term. Unfortu-

HAVING DESTROYED THE TIGERS, SRI LANKA SHOULD BE A MAHINDA RAJAPAKSA NATION ON THE MEND. UNFORTUNATELY, THE SHEEN IS WEARING THIN. THE TRIAL OF GENERAL FONSEKA, THE CURBS ON THE MEDIA AND THE `ALLEGED` WAR CRIMES HAVE BEEN A HUGE DOWNER FOR PRESIDENT RAJAPAKSA. BUT THE RELATIONSHIP WITH INDIA CONTINUES TO BE EXCEPTIONAL. Social Indicators

Mounting Demographic Pressures Massive Movement of Refugees or Internally Displaced Persons creating Complex Humanitarian Emergencies Legacy of Vengeance-Seeking Group Grievance or Group Paranoia Chronic and Sustained Human Flight

Economic Indicators

Uneven Economic Development along Group Lines Sharp and/or Severe Economic Decline

Political Indicators

Criminalisation and/or Delegitimisation of the State Progressive Deterioration of Public Services Suspension or Arbitrary Application of the Rule of Law and Widespread Violation of Human Rights Security Apparatus Operates as a “State within a State” Rise of Factionalised Elites Intervention of Other States or External Political Actors

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LIKE MAOISTS EVERYWHERE, THE NEPALI MAOIST HAS HIS OWN PUSHPA KAMAL DAHAL PRACHANDA GAME PLAN FOR THE HIMALAYAN REPUBLIC. THEY WANT THE GUERILLAS TO BE IN THE MILITARY, PRACHANDA, TO BE THE PRIME MINISTER AND THE CHINESE TO BE THEIR FRIEND, PHILOSOPHER, AND GUIDE. MPs HAVE TURNED HIM DOWN 7 TIMES AND NEPAL TOTTERS ON THE BRINK. nately, New Delhi (and the rest of India, as well) have been obsessed with Pakistan. It was a criminal negligence to overlook smaller neighbours.

Second, a cursory look at the Chinese image in India’s neighbourhood will reveal stark differences between Beijing and New Delhi. Unfortunately, except for Bhutan and to an extent Maldives, India does not have many friends in the other countries of the region. On the contrary, China is seen as a saviour and a friendly power. Irrespective of the actual relationship - military and economic, China has been hugely successful in projecting its soft power. This is where India has lost tremendously.

Finally, India needs to stitch a long-term strategy, primarily with its soft power, and try to influence its neighbours. In certain areas — especially culture, education, health and disaster management, India has a huge advantage. A beginning could be made in being less obsessed with Pakistan and giving more attention to other neighbours.

(The writer is Deputy Director, Institute of Peace and Conflict Studies, New Delhi) October 2010

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THIS ONE’S FOR AFRICA! S India-South Africa strategic partnership has immense potentials. However to realise them, India’s overall Africa-policy needs greater visibility, argues Ambassador RAJIV BHATIA

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OUTH AFRICA accords high priority to its relations with neighbours in southern Africa and other African countries. Enhancing the triangular linkage involving democracy and good governance, peace and security, and socio-economic development together with other elements of ‘the African Agenda’ remains important. But Pretoria has been keenly aware that the country’s domestic priorities and policy goals in Africa would be secured through strengthening of ‘South-South relations’. It situates India in this context, consistently articulating the view that developing ties with Asian giants, China and India, is of vital significance to it.

The South African Government misses no opportunity to convey that a special relationship exists between India and South Africa.

While presenting her department’s budget to the Parliament in June 2009, Maite NkoanaMashabane, Minister of International Relations and cooperation, observed: “With India, we share strong historical relations spanning through every stage of the evolution of modern day South Africa through the 20th century. Ours has been a relationship steeped in politics and struggle.”

India, in the context of its age-old ties with Africa, has undertaken the task to revitalise its engagement at bilateral, regional October 2010

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INDIAN COMMUNITY IN SOUTH AFRICA THIS YEAR marks the 150th year of arrival of Indians in South Africa. In fact, South Africa is home to one of the largest concentrations of people of Indian origin anywhere in the world. It is estimated that there are over 1.5 million Persons of Indian Origin (PIOs) in South Africa which constitute about two and a half per cent of the South African population of 47.4 million.

The major part of the Indian community came to South Africa during 1860-1911 as indentured farm labour to serve as field hands and mill operatives in the sugar and other agricultural plantations of Natal (which was then a British colony). Although they were given the opportunity to return home on completion of their contracts, most preferred to stay on either as farmers on crown land in Natal or as petty businessmen.

and continental level through the African Union. For obvious reasons, South Block would shy away if pressed to name the country it regards as the most important in Africa.

But it is easy to pinpoint the central significance of South Africa, stemming from its strategic location, political heritage, maturity of its democracy, impressive economic strength and its world view, not to speak of the Mandela charisma and after-glow of Soccer World Cup 2010. For India, other factors are also relevant: influence of Mahatma Gandhi’s legacy, the leader who virtually kindled political awakening and invented new political weapons, thereby impacting on South Africa’s struggle against apartheid; India’s strong support to the struggle, both before and after Independence; and presence of 1.28 millionstrong Indian community in South Africa. This relationship has been moulded by shared history which links the two countries through common ideas, ideals and icons. Anand Sharma, Minister of Commerce and Industry, observed recently: “India-South Africa relations are unparalleled. I would like to find another parallel. I have honestly tried to find, but I don’t find one.”

The article aims to present a critical evaluation of this special relationship, bringing out trends, challenges and opportunities.

Most of the initial migrants were drawn from Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh areas with some from eastern UP and Bihar. A second wave of Indians came after 1880. These were the "passenger Indians" - socalled because they paid their fares as passengers on board a steamship bound for South Africa. This was the community of traders who mainly hailed from Gujarat.

About 80 per cent of the Indian community lives in the province of KwaZulu Natal, about 15 per cent in the Gauteng (previously Transvaal) area and the remaining 5 per cent in the Cape Town.

Indian South Africans are wellrepresented in Government, business, media, legal and other professions. Currently, there are 21 Members of Parliament of Indian origin, including one Cabinet Minister and one Deputy Minister.

STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP India and South Africa consider their relations to the “strategic partnership”, first proclaimed at the conclusion of President Mandela’s state visit to India in March 1997. The Red Fort Declaration, issued at the time, referred to the two countries’ faith and optimism about their journey together towards “the larger goals of their political freedoms: economic development and social justice” and their determination to work together for “a global order that is marked by peace, security and equity”. This relationship is envisaged to be enduring and all-encompassing.

More importantly, it

POLITICALLY RELATIONS HAVE BEEN CLOSE AND COOPERATIVE. TWO COUNTRIES ARE COMMITTED TO THEIR BILATERAL COOPERATION.

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derives strength from a pragmatic recognition, reflected in the Joint Declaration issued after President Thabo Mbeki’s visit to India in October 2003, that the two sides have “certain comparative advantages and complementarities” which offer many potential opportunities for cooperation in trade, investment and transfer of technology.

The issue we need to ponder candidly is whether the lofty vision of relationship, embedded in the above two Declarations, is getting realised to the desired degree and at an acceptable pace.

POLITICAL RELATIONS Politically relations have been close and cooperative. The two countries are committed to intensifying their bilateral cooperation. They continue to have regular interactions on a wide range of bilateral, regional and international issues. These discussions have established that New Delhi and Pretoria share a common perspective on most subjects such as reform of UN (including the Security Council) and international financial institutions, climate change, international trade issues, support for Africa’s resurgence, and countering international terrorism. The commonality of views gets reflected in bilateral agreements and declarations as well as in the documents October 2010

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“INDIA-SOUTH AFRICA RELATIONS ARE UNPARALLELED. I WOULD LIKE TO FIND ANOTHER PARALLEL. I HAVE HONESTLY TRIED TO FIND, BUT I DON’T FIND ONE.” COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY MINISTER, ANAND SHARMA emanating from the IBSA process since 2003.

Political proximity is also reflected in — and is reinforced by — a busy calendar of political visits at VVIP and VIP level in recent years. The record of high-level visits shows that every South African president since 1994 has visited India. The present President, Jacob Zuma, chose India as his first Asian destination when he undertook a stand-alone visit in June 2010. From the Indian side, the list of recent visits includes Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Congress President Sonia Gandhi, but it has the potential for expansion.

Bilateral interaction has continued through ministerial, official, business and cultural exchanges.

Existing institutional structure has been getting utilised, though not optimally. The Joint Commission, co-chaired by the two foreign ministers, is the principal body for dialogue, cooperation and coordination. Its next meeting is expected to be held in Delhi in late 2010. Foreign Office Consultations (FOC) have been held infrequently and at different levels, i.e. at official or political level. The Joint Defence Committee too meets infrequently.

The two countries have signed 38 Agreements so far, providing for cooperation in various fields ranging from culture through trade, science and technology, civil aviation, and diplomatic training to agriculture. The Joint Commission periodically undertakes evaluation of progress in their implementation.

A brief reference to three important associations should be made here. IBSA Dialogue

Forum, with India, Brazil and South Africa as its members, has been successful in capturing international attention for its innovative linking of three large democracies and expanding economies, one each from three continents Asia, Latin America and Africa. IBSA has enabled its members to project a coordinated view on international issues, to expand their trilateral cooperation in many sectors, and to step up their assistance to Least Developed Countries through targeted projects. As far as BASIC comprising Brazil, South Africa, India and China is concerned, its success in articulating and pushing common positions on climate change issues has been widely noted.

Finally, BRIC comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China is a special and exclusive club; South Africa has set its heart on joining it. Since taking office last year, President Zuma has made a strong, personal pitch to BRIC leaders to let South Africa come in. His principal argument is that, with Africa represented through South Africa, the influence of BRIC in world affairs would grow further. It appears that, after much introspection, BRIC members have all but agreed to accept South Africa as the fifth member, signifying that it is a matter of time before BRIC turns into BRICSA. DEFENCE TIES ‘Strategic partnership’ would normally sound hollow without a substantive, on-going and deepening cooperation in the defence field.

There seems to be an asymmetry in the kind of security environment the two countries face. India is located in a region with adverse conditions, surrounded, as she is, by two difficult neighbours equipped with nuclear weapons. South Africa’s national security, on the other hand, operates on the premise that the country faces virtually no external threat.

However, strategic community has argued that threats do exist and that mutual coopera-

BILATERAL DEFENCE COOPERATION HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE FORWARD, ESPECIALLY THROUGH HIGHLEVEL VISITS.

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“WITH INDIA, WE SHARE STRONG HISTORICAL RELATIONS SPANNING THROUGH EVERY STAGE OF THE EVOLUTION OF MODERN-DAY SOUTH AFRICA THROUGH THE 20TH CENTURY. “ MINISTER OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS AND COOPERATION, MAITE NKOANA-MASHABANE tion is possible. IBSA-MAR, the once-in-twoyear-maritime exercises involving the Navies of India, Brazil and South Africa, has been a significant new trend, especially considering recent developments in the western Indian Ocean.

Bilateral defence cooperation has continued to move forward, especially through a regular exchange of high-level visits and training programmes. But its full potential can be realised once specific constraints are identified and eliminated through greater synergy between political and official levels. Defence trade, which was at a much higher level during the years immediately after 1994, could also be expanded, keeping in view the needs and capabilities of both countries.

ECONOMIC COOPERATION Commercial and economic relations have progressed quite rapidly, especially in the current decade. Bilateral trade, valued at $2.3 billion in 2003-04, has gone up to $7.5 billion in 2008-09. However, this level is well below the agreed target of $10 billion that was set for 2010. During President Zuma’s recent visit it was agreed that the target must be reached by 2012.

Investment and technology transfer are other important pillars of the economic relationship. The quantum of two-way investment is informally assessed to be between $ 2.5 and 3 billion. Over 40 Indian companies with their offices based in Johannesburg and elsewhere have been active in promoting October 2010

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THE INDIA SHOW IN JOHANNESBURG THE INDIA-SOUTH Africa business partnership turned a new leaf with the unveiling of The India Show in Johannesburg by President Jacob Zuma of South Africa, on August 31 at MTN Expo Centre, the country’s largest, in the presence of Indian Minister of Commerce & Industry, Mr Anand Sharma, senior ministers of South Africa and business leaders from both countries.

The four-day mega-event, organised by the Government of India in association with the High Commission and the Confederation of Indian Industry (CII), was a major drive to push trade and business ties in the African continent.

India’s Commerce Minister Anand Sharma and Tata Group Chief Mr Ratan Tata led the government-corporate mission to target $10 billion two-way trade by 2012.

The event showcased the best of ‘Brand India’ through an high-end technology exhibition and a series of high-profile business meets, food, fashion and cultural shows in Johannesburg during August 29 and September 1, 2010 .

The exhibition featured a large exposition by leading Indian technological and engineering firms in Nasrec. Top-rung Indian companies such as Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Tata Chemicals, Tata Consulting Engineers, Kirloskar Brothers Ltd, Tea

Board of India, Coffee Board (Ministry of Commerce & Industry, Govt of India), Coir Board (Ministry of MSME), Government of India, Dabur India Ltd, Escorts Ltd, Ranbaxy Laboratories, Ion Exchange, Beri Udyog Pvt Ltd, Amravati Group, Fedders Lloyd Group, Jindal Rectifiers, VisionTek, Setco Automotive Ltd, Yuken India, PME Transformers (India) Ltd, NIIT Antilles NV, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Jain Irrigation, Hi Tech Biosciences India Ltd, Elmex Controls Pvt. Ltd., The UB Group and several others displayed their latest technologies and innovations at the expo.

The expo covered automotive and auto components, biotechnology, tractor & farm implements, agro & food processing technology, pharmaceuticals & healthcare, mining, power, water, IT & telecommunications, roads & railways and retail tractors.

On the sidelines, the corporate leaders from India and South Africa led by Mr Ratan Tata and Mr Patrice Motsepe, Co-Chairmen of the India-South Africa CEO Forum, met for its first meeting since its launch by President Zuma during his June visit to India. The business leaders discussed the opportunities and challenges that the bilateral trade offered and the bottlenecks that were hampering IndiaSouth Africa business ties. A few constructive suggestions on decongesting the ways of bet-

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ter engagement were put forward by the CEOs for consideration by the two governments. The two Chairmen also debated the agenda of pushing India-South Africa business with the two trade Ministers Mr Anand Sharma & Dr Rob Davies in a televised CNBC panel debate.

‘The India Show’ was also complemented by 3rd annual ‘Doing Business with India’ conference which was held on August 31. This conference which was addressed by Mr A Sharma and Dr Rob Davies, brought to the fore India as an attractive investment destination. The thematic discussions at the conference covered infrastructure financing, South-South Cooperation, regulatory issues, etc.

India’s soft power was also on display at the grand event. A potpourri of fashion, dance, and Indian cuisine gave South Africa a glimpse into Indian culture and traditions.

‘The Fashion Show’ held on August 30 showcased Indian designs to drive business between the South African and Indian fashion and textile industries. Two of India’s most accomplished fashion designers, Manish Malhotra and Satya Paul, presented their latest collections.

The Fashion Show also saw the presence of three reigning Miss Indias walk the ramp.

The India Show’ also featured a cultural programme by Maitreyee Pahari & troupe, facilitated by ICCR, a presentation of “Indian Nouvelle Cuisine at ‘The India Food Week’ which was inaugurated on August 29

by Minister Anand Sharma and Minister Maite Mashabane and organised in collaboration with Taj Mahal Hotel at Hotel Sandton Sun, Johannesburg.

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ZUMA ON INDIA

INDIA AND South Africa should develop joint initiatives to promote innovations to ride the current global wave of technologies to bring about the socio-economic transformation of their respective economies.

Two countries should also develop strong partnerships in capacity building and skills development to complement the economic resurgence.

India and South Africa have a shared global understanding on diverse issues covering trade negotiations, climate change, poverty alleviation, and peace and stability.

Indian investments in South Africa already amount to $6 billion and many

business ties. They have been getting matching support from leading South African companies which are present and active in India.

Technical cooperation, capacity-building and bridging skill deficit have been other facets of economic cooperation. They are getting addressed through India’s expanding ITEC programme and additional assistance being provided within the framework of decisions announced at India -Africa Forum Summit in 2008. India’s private sector has come up with new initiatives to help South African companies in enhancing their human resource development capabilities.

Strong hopes were placed on India-South Africa CEOs Forum, in its role as a catalyst, to take trade and investment linkages to an altogether new level. Despite several meetings in the past, its contribution appeared to be below par. The two Governments, therefore, decided to reconstitute and re-launch it. In its revised avatar, the CEOs Forum held its first meeting in Johannesburg in September 2010 and re-dedicated itself to its mission. It has set up four sectoral groups relating to mining, infrastructure, energy and financial services.

It is to be hoped that the Forum would now make a difference.

The Governments too have a weighty responsibility for fostering economic relations. They need to do more to facilitate free flow of goods, services and people between the two countries.

Culture, education, and people-to-people ties are among other areas of bilateral cooperation which have seen substantive progress in recent years. This is important for deepening mutual understanding, particularly at the level of youth because they, in both countries, need

Indian companies have become household names in South Africa. Further bilateral opportunity rests on identifying the complementarity in trade and investment relations. This will also open up the broader southern Africa and rest of Africa markets for Indian companies, since South Africa is a gateway to the African markets as a whole. Likewise, South African companies would also be able to enhance their footprint in the Indian market.

The extensive physical infrastructure development programmes initiated by the South African government will open up several investment opportunities for Indian companies in South Africa.

to be sensitised about the rich history of and future stakes in this extraordinary relationship.

Annual cultural festivals, organised under the ‘Shared History’ banner since 2007, have created a significant impact in South Africa. The South African Government should consider organising matching cultural festivals in India in order to raise South Africa’s profile.

CHINA FACTOR Is China a factor in further development of India-South Africa relations?

The answer lies in looking at the broader picture. China’s rapidly expanding presence in Africa and the resources it has deployed for implementation of its Africa policy have been of a far higher order. While our relationship with South Africa has been older, stronger and deeper, China has been busy stealing a march over us. China’s trade, for example, was valued at $16.3 billion in 2009, i.e. more than double of our trade with South Africa. Its investments in South Africa are larger. Its political leaders

CULTURE AND EDUCATION ARE AMONG OTHER AREAS OF BILATERAL COOPERATION WHICH HAVE SEEN SUBSTANTIVE PROGRESS.

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have been visiting South Africa far more frequently. During the recent visit by President Zuma to China, the two countries agreed to establish what they call “comprehensive strategic partnership”. Clearly the gap has been widening.

India needs to recognise rather than deny the China factor, the stark fact of an increasing competition for Africa’s attention and assets, including those of South Africa. Suitable policy measures should be crafted accordingly.

CONCLUSION India’s relations with South Africa cannot be managed in isolation from the former’s relations with Africa in general. By all means, we should further strengthen ties with Pretoria, but we should also accord more attention than hitherto to other major partners on the continent, thereby creating a broad balance in our relationships.

In pursuing business opportunities in Africa, India Inc has done well so far, but it should set its sights higher. As to the Ministry of External Affairs, it should focus on two specific issues. First, it should enhance India’s political visibility by considering to arrange periodic visits to Africa, including South Africa, by our President, Vice President and Speaker — all our valuable, though highly underutilised, assets. Secondly, it should optimally support expanding people-to-people relations. Then only Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s vision to “impart a forward-looking character” to the relationship would be realised fully.

(The author served as India’s High Commissioner to South Africa from 2006-2009) October 2010

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INDIA-CHINA

“OTHERS” IN INDIA-CHINA AFFAIRS

I

NDIA’S DECISION to suspend defence exchanges with China in September after the latter refused to grant a visa to India’s Northern Area Commander in Jammu and Kashmir has highlighted the changing nature of the bilateral relationship as both countries demonstrate a growing boldness in their actions and unwillingness to overlook the perceived transgressions of the other amid their growing self-confidence on the world stage. The opening of the Chinesefunded port

at Hambantota in southern Sri Lanka in mid-August has also highlighted the extension of their bilateral rivalry as both countries expand relations with third countries fuelled by their growing outbound investment.

The China-India relationship has improved significantly in recent years amid growing levels of economic interaction, political cooperation on international issues (ranging from climate change to agricultural subsidies) and confidence-building initiatives, including joint military exercises and diplomatic exchanges.

However, the global economic downturn — by confirming the eastward shift in the world’s productive and economic capacity — has also made their rivalry more significant by providing both countries with more resources to compete with each other while projecting their regional rivalry onto the world stage.

Rising levels of

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There is now a soft “Cold War” between India and China, marked by growing mutual mistrust along with expanding political and economic interactions. This relationship is becoming all the more complicated because of the increasing influence of third parties, notes CHIETIGJ BAJPAEE

nationa l i s m threatens to fuel unresolved core grievances including longstanding territorial disputes, trade imbalances, both countries’ growing naval power projection capabilities and the role of third parties — notably, China’s growing presence in South Asia and India’s deepening relations with the United States. The propensity for misunderstanding is also fuelled by deficient institutional mechanisms for interaction.

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The Economic Riddle

ven on the economic front, which is seen as an area of interdependence, cooperation remains strained. While Chinese and Indian companies have made significant inroads into each other’s markets, a climate of mistrust continues to deter greater economic integration.

The rhetoric of Indian services complementing Chinese manufacturing and Chinese hardware complementing Indian software has been challenged by concerns over industrial espionage, prompting increasingly stringent guidelines for investment in certain sectors or regions. For instance, security concerns over imports of Chinese equipment and technicians have been a deterrent to Chinese investment in sensitive or strategically important sectors in India such as telecoms and ports. Chinese companies have also been barred from bidding for offshore oil and gas exploration projects in sensitive areas such as the Mannar Basin off the coast of Sri Lanka and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Reports of an attempted hacking of Indian government sites, including the prime minister’s office and the National Security Council Secretariat in December 2009 have also led to calls for more stringent requirements for Chinese investment in India’s information technology sector. This accounts in part for the government in mid-July unveiling new norms on mobile phone operators importing telecom and IT equipment to minimise the risk of spyware or malware being embedded in such equipment.

Between February and July the government refused to clear 450 equipment orders worth $3

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billion placed with Chinese vendors, citing security concerns.

Underlying these economic tensions is the fact that economic interdependence remains skewed and superficial. Bilateral trade still remains at relatively low levels, with India accounting for a mere two percent of China’s total global trade (as China’s tenth-largest trading partner) although China has emerged as India’s second-largest trading partner. While bilateral trade has grow rapidly from $338 million in 1992 to a targeted $60 billion in 2010, economic disparities have exasperated bilateral tensions given India’s widening trade deficit with China and three-quarters of India’s exports to China comprising commodities and raw materials with little value added in contrast to China’s export of manufactured goods to India.

The Indian side has attributed this disparity to China’s enforcement of non-tariff barriers, particularly in sectors where India retains a comparative advantage, such as information technology and pharmaceuticals. Unsurprisingly, India is a leading initiator of anti-dumping cases against China. Finally, the mechanisms to address bilateral economic disputes remain undeveloped and under-utilised: the Joint Economic Group (JEG) between India and China lacks the profile of the Strategic Economic Dialogue (SED) between China and the United States, with the JEG holding its eighth meeting this year after a gap of four years in contrast to the SED’s annual meetings.

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MODERATE FACE: The advanced age of Dalai Lama may pave the way for a radical Tibetan leadership While the integrated nature of the international system will deter hostilities approaching the level of the brief 1962 border war, latent mistrust will ensure that the Sino-Indian bilateral relationship remains precarious and prone to sporadic tensions.

The discord in the China-India relationship is most evident in the unresolved territorial disputes in Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh, which has mutated due to both a change of its strategic significance and the expanded tools available to both countries.

For China, Tibet has emerged as an issue of renewed sensitivity following the riots that

erupted in Lhasa in March 2008 preceding the Olympic Games in Beijing. These tensions are likely to grow as the advanced age of the Dalai Lama paves the way for the rise of a new generation of more radical Tibetan leaders who are more supportive of “rangzen” (full independence) over the Dalai Lama’s “middleway” approach.

Amid renewed concerns over stability in Tibet, Beijing has sought to reaffirm the legitimacy of its sovereignty over the region, leading to a more stringent position over its claim to Arunachal Pradesh, which it terms as “Southern Tibet”, and particularly the symbol-

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ically important town of Tawang, which is the birthplace of Tsangyan Gyatso, the sixth Dalai Lama, and home to the largest Tibetan monastery outside Lhasa. Tensions could surge between India and China if the Tibetan movement further radicalises after the death of the current Dalai Lama, especially if his successor is chosen among the Tibetan exile community in India. The Tibetan-government-inexile will also be holding parliamentary polls in 2011 with the new prime minister possibly changing the pace and process of engagement with Beijing.

On the Indian side, sensitivities over Chinese control of Aksai Chin are tied to the disputed status of Jammu and Kashmir. While recent years have seen China adopt an increasingly neutral position on the Kashmir issue, which saw its most visible manifestation during the Kargil conflict in 1999, recent actions by Beijing have brought this neutrality into question. These include the Chinese government’s invitation to Kashmiri separatist leader Mirwaiz Umar Farooq and Chinese diplomatic missions in India issuing separate visas to residents of Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh in 2009.

Both countries have also employed more tools in the territorial dispute. Beyond the well-documented movement of militaries along the border, China’s growing infrastructure investment in Pakistan-controlled GilgitBaltistan (formerly the Northern Areas), has added an economic dimension to the territorial dispute. Chinese-funded projects in the disputed territory, including upgrading the Karakoram Highway, and dam and hydroelectric projects undermine China’s neutrality in the India-Pakistan dispute over Kashmir. The most recent manifestation of this has been media reports of the presence of up-to 11,000 Chinese troops in Gilgit-Baltistan.

Whether or not these reports are true, it reflects China’s growing economic interest in Pakistan and particularly Pakistani-held Kashmir as part of Beijing’s attempt to diversify its trade routes and reduce its dependence on the US-patrolled routes such as the Strait of Malacca. The Sino-Indian border dispute has also moved onto the world stage amid both countries’ growing economic clout. This was most evident in the dispute over a US$ 2.9 billion Asian Development Bank (ADB) loan to India that China attempted to block in March 2009, as it included funding for a $60 million flood management programme in Arunachal Pradesh.

As both countries acquire more prominent voices on the world stage the Sino-Indian rivalry is increasingly likely to play out in the international arena. India’s push for a stronger October 2010

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voice in the international system, including a permanent seat at the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) and a more substantive role in the Asian regional architecture, is likely to gain momentum, bringing it into conflict with China’s traditional resistance to an expanded role for India. The Chinese attempt to block the ADB loan to India in 2009 followed its veiled opposition to the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) granting a waiver to conduct trade with India in civilian nuclear technology in 2008. This offers a hint of the international competition to come.

Fuelling the complications of the SinoIndian bilateral relationship is the increasing influence of third parties. This comes amid the gradual weakening of the US-led security architecture in Asia, which is paving the way for overlapping and often competing security paradigms. For instance, rhetoric regarding the creation of a so-called “arc of democracies” (comprising India, the United States, Japan and Australia), which gained momentum under the George W. Bush administration, has virtually disappeared as a result of leadership changes within each of the “arc” countries (except India). In the United States, the Barack Obama administration’s focus on reviving the US economy, which entails maintaining cordial relations with China as the dominant emerging economy and leading holder of US government debt, has dampened discussion of forging an “arc” against China.

The hype of the US-Indian relationship generated under the Bush administration with the conclusion of the civilian nuclear agreement and the US proclamation to help India emerge as a “world power” has been toned down, though more pragmatic ambitions to deepen economic interdependence and military-to-military cooperation persist.

The fact that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Washington in November 2009 was preceded by Obama’s visit to China — which ended on a sour note for US-Indian relations because of reports that Obama had called on China to play a more active role in South Asian security — left a bitter taste in India. The first reported “US-China sub-dialogue on South Asia”, which followed the 16th summit of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) in April has reaffirmed the growing role of China in South Asia’s political, economic and security trajectory.

Other countries in the so-called arc have also toned down their rhetoric of forging an anti-China grouping with India. The shifts from a Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) to a Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ)-led government in Japan and from a Liberal-National

CHINA’S RELATION WITH PAKISTAN HAS DEEPENED DESPITE CONCERNS OVER THE COUNTRY’S PRECARIOUS SITUATION. coalition to a Labour Party-led government in Australia have led both countries to seek a closer relationship with China while shelving the idea of a Quadrilateral Initiative including India. Instead, both have opted for more inclusive regional architectures, as it is highlighted by former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd’s proposal for an Asia-Pacific Community and former Japanese Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama’s proposal for an East Asian Community.

Nonetheless, India’s continued engagement with the Asia Pacific region as part of its “Look East” policy, and less confrontational bilateral and more inclusive multilateral mechanisms will ensure that engagement will continue, albeit at a quieter pace. US-Indian relations have matured to an extent that the trajectory is unlikely to change despite the pace and profile of the relationship being toned down.

This was highlighted in the Pentagon’s Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2010, which notes that India’s “growing influence, combined with democratic values it shares with the United States, an open political system, and a commitment to global stability, will present many opportunities for cooperation. “This contrasts with the US assessment on China’s rise, which is subject to less optimism as the “lack of transparency and the nature of China’s military development and decision-making processes raise legitimate questions about its future conduct and intentions within Asia and beyond”. The first cabinet-level India-US Strategic Dialogue in June 2010 reaffirms the unchanged trajectory of the deepening bilateral relationship.

Meanwhile, the rise of the DPJ party in Japan signals a potential shift toward a more assertive foreign policy in which the USJapanese alliance, while remaining at the core of Japanese foreign policy, will be supplemented by expanded relationships with other

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regional powers, including China and India.

Hatoyama’s visit to India in December 2009 ended with a Joint Statement highlighting an Action Plan for deepening cooperation in security and strategic issues between India and Japan. More broadly, India’s inclusion in regional multilateral frameworks, including a free trade agreement (FTA) with the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) that came into force in January 2010, ensures that India’s engagement with East Asia will continue to deepen amid latent concerns to balance the rise of China.

Meanwhile, China has continued to make inroads into South Asia fuelled by its growing strategic influence, resource needs and concerns over instabilities along its periphery. It is no longer a question of whether China will encroach into South Asia: China is now firmly embedded in the South Asian economic and security architecture. China’s “all-weather relationship” with Pakistan has deepened despite concerns over the country’s precarious political and security situation. Beyond military-to-military cooperation, around 120 Chinese companies and 10,000 Chinese nationals work in the country on 122 major development projects.

China is now Pakistan’s second-largest trading partner and economic integration has

UNRESOLVED DISPUTES: Sensitivities over Chinese control of Aksai Chin are tied to the disputed status of Jammu and Kashmir

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DIPLOMACY continued to gain momentum. This has been facilitated by their FTA, the establishment of the Pakistan and China Joint Investment Company (JIC) and both countries agreeing to engage in cross-border trade across the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region using the Chinese Yuan as the base currency (replacing the US dollar). China’s ongoing support for Pakistan’s civilian and military nuclear power programme has also served as a veiled challenge to the civilian nuclear power agreement between India and the United States.

China’s long-standing relationship with Pakistan has been complemented by its growing presence in the wider region, which is often driven by the internal political dynamics of these countries. For instance, in Nepal, the shifting balance of power in favour of the Nepali Maoists (UCPN (M)) has been a boon for China, given the Maoist allegations of Indian intervention in Nepal’s internal affairs. Former Maoist Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal’s (aka Prachanda) first overseas visit to China rather than India in 2008 was indicative of this shift and, while Prachanda resigned as prime minister in May 2009, the UCPN (M) remains an influential player in Nepali politics as the largest party in the constituent assembly. In 2008-2009 a dozen high-level Chinese delegations visited Nepal and Prachanda continued to make advances toward China despite the differing ideologies of the Nepali Maoists and the Chinese Communist Party.

Closer relations with China have assisted the Nepali Maoists in putting pressure on India to renegotiate the allegedly unequal friendship treaty between the two states. Meanwhile, the Nepali government have reciprocated China’s advances by becoming increasingly aggressive in its crackdown on Tibetan activists in Nepal, which hosts the largest population of Tibetan exiles after India.

Sri Lanka is the most recent illustration of Chinese interests complementing changes in the internal political and security dynamics of the host country. President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government has stepped up engagement with non-traditional donors such as China as the West has voiced criticism over the government’s human rights record while threatening to curtail aid and investment. China has provided preferential loans at subsidised rates in addition to investment in strategically and symbolically important infrastructure projects. Bilateral trade with China has grown fivefold between 2006 and 2008, while China has replaced Japan as Sri Lanka’s leading aid donor, providing more than $3 billion in financial assistance since 2006. In addition to its economic assistance China also provided crucial diplomatic support to Sri Lanka,

IN NEPAL, THE SHIFTING BALANCE OF POWER IN FAVOUR OF THE NEPALI MAOISTS (UCPN (M)) HAS BEEN A BOON FOR CHINA. defeating a motion against Sri Lanka for war crimes investigations at the UN Human Rights Council. China was also able to supply offensive armaments to the Sri Lankan military in its campaign against the Tamil Tigers, while traditional ally India was unable to do so given domestic political considerations.

The opening of the Hambantota port in Sri Lanka has also revived the debate over China’s “string of pearls” strategy of constructing ports along strategically important waterways. China’s Exim Bank provided 85 per cent of the $550 million funding as a soft loan for the first phase of the Hambantota port, known as the Magampura International Harbour, and has pledged an additional $200 million for the second phase. China is also involved in several complementary infrastructure projects, including constructing an international airport at Hambantota. China’s growing interests in Sri Lanka’s port infrastructure emulate existing Chinese-funded port projects at Gwadar in Pakistan, Marao in the Maldives and Sittwe in Myanmar (Burma). While these projects have little direct military significance over the short run, they nonetheless provide access points for Beijing to ramp up its military presence in the region over the longer term, for example through the development of overseas supply bases.

However, the integrated nature of the international system will ensure that conflict between India and China remains a distant possibility over the short term as neither country is looking for a fight while they remain preoccupied with consolidating their “Comprehensive National Power”. In shelving their hostilities both countries will continue to pursue confidence-building measures, including joint military exercises and diplomatic exchanges. The establishment of direct hotlines between the premiers of both countries following the visit of Indian Foreign Minister S.M. Krishna to China in April 2010 has provided an additional mechanism to prevent

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misunderstandings from flaring up into major bilateral tensions. Pallam Raju, India’s Minister of State for Defence has also offered to collaborate with China in order to protect the transit of energy and resource supplies through the Indian Ocean. This falls in line with a proposal by former foreign secretary and National Security Advisor Shiv Shankar Menon for a “Maritime Concert” in which the region’s major maritime powers would have collective responsibility to protect the Indian Ocean from non-traditional security threats.

Both countries have also pledged to strengthen economic interdependence through multilateral initiatives, such as discussions of currency swap agreements among the economies of the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China).

However, the rhetoric of economic integration should not be exaggerated and the likelihood of irrational jingoism cannot be underestimated. The Sino-Indian relationship will assume greater significance in the international system as the rise of both countries makes the rivalry more complex and multidimensional. Localised issues such as the territorial dispute will assume greater regional and global significance given both countries’ growing clout. As such, the most likely scenario is a soft “Cold War” in which growing economic interaction and political cooperation on international issues of mutual interest (such as climate change) coexist with mutual mistrust on regional issues (such as the territorial dispute).

Ultimately, the emergence of a so-called “Asian Century” will be contingent on the emergence of a stable regional order. With the relative decline of the United States and relative rise of China and India in the Asia Pacific in the aftermath of the global economic downturn, a new regional architecture will be necessary to contain longstanding adversarial relationships in the Asia Pacific. With respect to India and China this will require both countries to move beyond the extreme rhetoric that has traditionally plagued their relationship, ranging from the idealistic cordiality of “Hindi-Chini bhai bhai” (“India and China are brothers”) to China’s belligerent claims that India is an “appendage of Western imperialism”. Both countries will instead need to recognise the need to forge a more robust relationship embedded in strengthening forums to address their core grievances while deepening functional cooperation in areas of mutual interest.

(The writer is a Senior Asia analyst at Control Risks, a London-based political and security consultancy) October 2010

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ested interests have exposed once again their prejudice by blaming the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) for worsening the situation in the Kashmir valley. Our previous issue had discussed the much-abused AFSPA and proved how ill-founded were the criticisms against its provisions. I am not going to repeat them. What I intend to focus instead is the overall philosophy of having special laws like the AFSPA. I want to deal with the context, not the text.

The AFSPA is not an ordinary law; it is a special provision envisaged by the country’s Parliament. No international law anywhere allows secession.

And under the Indian Constitution, Article 355 makes the central governPrakash ment duty-bound to protect the states from internal disturbance. The AFSPA is meant to be used in these two extraordinary circumstances. And that has been the case so far.

Right since its inception in 1958, it has been used in the areas that are witnessing secessionist movements — some North-Eastern states and Kashmir (since 1990).

Second, the Act is essentially applicable to the armed forces, not the general police personnel and paramilitary forces. Only when the latter, working under normal laws, are not able to take control of the situation and the armed forces are called into the service, does the AFSPA come into relevance. It provides the armed forces the power to arrest those suspected without warrant, search their places and fire upon, even causing death, those who are acting in contravention of “any law” and those “in assembly of five or more persons” or those who are in possession of deadly weapons.

Obviously, there are conditions attached to the AFSPA and soldiers/officials violating these can always be prosecuted. But critics question why the armed forces are immune to acting under normal laws such as no searching without warrants and no firing without a magisterial order. But the point is very simple. If the armed forces cannot do anything on their own and need civilian clearance during their operations, how will be their effectiveness different from that of the normal police and paramilitary forces? And if that is the case, where is the need to call them?

As it is, the armed forces have been consistently pointing out that they are not interested in managing internal security. So, those opposing the AFSPA

should vent their anger not against the armed forces but the political or civilian leadership, which is summoning them to do the job that is supposed to be done by police and paramilitary forces. If you do not call the army, there is no need for AFSPA. Third, given the ever-changing nature of violence and the technologies that the secessionist terrorists are using these days, logic demands that instead of surrendering their existing powers as demanded by the so-called civil rights activists, our armed forces need stronger laws to make them more effective.

The extremists, not only operating in stealth and targeting civilian populations but also arming themselves with deadly weapons, raise daunting legal problems. Their conduct is not Nanda adequately covered by either criminal law or the laws of war, though, like national armies, they threaten a state’s territorial integrity and political sovereignty.

It is true that by its very nature, any extraordinary or anti-terrorism law is bound to affect some “individual rights” — such as liberty of the individual, privacy, autonomy and freedom among others.

But their being invoked is necessitated for “public welfare”. All told, terrorist attacks are, fundamentally, an assault not on individuals or on the liberty of individuals, but on the security and welfare of the people as a whole. And since the fight against secessionism and terrorism is not a normal fight, one has to appreciate the need to transcend the excessive individualism that the blind champions of human rights suggest. It is incumbent on citizens to realise that for the common good, they will not be able to do everything they want to do, whenever and wherever they like and under conditions that only they can dictate. Instead, they will have to think of the good of the community, and, indeed, of the nation, as a whole.

Finally, a word about the armed forces’ role in Kashmir. The state may be under the AFSPA. But then, if about 100 people have been killed there in last three months, the AFSPA-protected Army is not responsible for that. Firings have been caused by the state police and paramilitary forces. In fact, contrary to what the habitual army-bashers say, if Kashmir continues to be with India and if any organisation that the ordinary Kashmiri, as distinct from the separatist, is most comfortable with, then it is the Indian Army.

Let us be proud of our armed forces!

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