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All Eyes Are On Pennsylvania
Politics & Medicine All Eyes Are On Pennsylvania
BY LARRY L. LIGHT
In both national and local news coverage, political analysis, candidate fund raising messages and everywhere else the recurring theme is that “all eyes are on Pennsylvania” as the 2022 fall general election approaches. Another widely accepted opinion is that this will be a “watershed” election. It’s easy to understand why. The 8.7 million registered voters in Pennsylvania are at the center of the political universe.
To start with, the political stakes are extremely high, and the candidates are, in a word, unique. PA voters on November 8th will have two incredibly important statewide elections on the ballot as they choose a successor for both term-limited Governor Tom Wolf (D) and retiring US Senator Pat Toomey (R). Those two statewide races will be not only at the top of the ballot, but they will also be closely followed by the national media and the most powerful politicians in the nation.
The Gubernatorial race is critical for state party Democrats if they want to counterbalance the stranglehold that PA Republicans have had on control of the General Assembly. To retain control of the Governor’s mansion, Democrats will need to elect sitting Attorney General Josh Shapiro to the post. Since the two-term limit was imposed on Governors, a change of parties has been the norm so Democrat Shapiro succeeding Democrat Wolf is the first complication and just one reason that Democrats have a difficult task.
Another factor is that the GOP nominee for Governor, State Senator Doug Mastriano, runs with the support of former President Trump and he proved in the GOP primary that he is anything but a conventional candidate. In the primary he defeated a crowded field of seven opponents by translating anger over the assertion that the 2020 presidential election was “stolen” to claim 44% of the votes and a win. Mastriano is well known as a participant in the events at the US Capitol on January 6, 2021 and will count on the conservative base of the state Republican party to fuel his victory. Voters studying the policy positions of Mastriano and Shapiro will find a very large gap and very little common ground.
The other statewide race, to replace retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey, is simply a centerpiece of the national level political discussion because it will be a key factor in determining political control of the US Senate for the remaining two years of President Biden’s term. Even considering that there are tightly contested races in a few other key states, many national observers consider the race in Pennsylvania to be the fulcrum that will determine control of the Senate, if you will, the “Keystone State” in real life. At the national level Democrats are looking at the Pennsylvania Senate race as the one they will need to “flip” from R to D to again secure their majority in the upper chamber.
Democratic candidate John Fetterman surprised many by handily winning his party’s primary and the nomination while campaigning in his own unconventional style. He then stepped off the campaign trail to recover from a stroke he suffered just before the election. The Republican candidate, Dr. Mehmet Oz, is a celebrity physician who until recently lived in New Jersey. While Fetterman was slow to re-engage in campaign activities because of his health, it did not deter his early fundraising and at least thru most of the summer he was leading Oz in both the polls and funds raised.
This election cycle has its underpinnings in issues that are sure to guarantee explosive headlines, creative media buys and more than likely high voter turnout. It was reported that voter turnout in the 2022 primary was a record for mid-term elections with more than 1.2 million voters from each party casting ballots. But in mid-term elections, based on the presidential cycle, historical voting data predicts there is less of an expectation for a similar dynamic in November. And history would also predict more success for the party not holding control of the White House, presenting an additional challenge for Democrats Shapiro and Fetterman. Without question, this means that the statewide candidates from both parties are campaigning in an unusual and difficult mid-term election environment.
Some observers think that party polarization and well-defined top tier issues will have the opposite effect in the general election and result in a Democratic organizational movement to drive their voters to the polls on November 8th. But as voting day approaches, Republicans have narrowed the voter registration gap between their party and the Democrats to about 500,000. Not too long ago, the Democratic margin was over 1 million. In addition, Republicans are outpacing Democrats in registering new voters. To say the least, the political landscape is more complicated than ever.
Beyond control of the US Senate, reproduction rights rises to the top tier of issues. With the recent ruling of the US Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson it was immediately clear this would be a critical element in elections at both the state and national levels.
Another well-known issue, one debated at both state and national levels, is addressing climate change. Not surprisingly, the views of the candidates range from considering climate change a universal crisis to declaring it to be junk science.
A fourth issue, again well-known across the nation, is the battle over preserving 2nd Amendment rights in the face of the debate on gun control and the recurring instances of gun violence that seem to dominate our news cycles. And to cite the obvious, voter anxiety over economic uncertainty will come into play.
Legislative races in Pennsylvania will also bear watching. Republican state legislators, tired of dealing with Governor Wolf and his veto pen, are anxious to write new law on matters ranging from election security to reproductive freedoms. The problem is that they face their own challenges in that they are running in newly drawn state legislative districts. A controversial reapportionment process, which was concluded only when the state Supreme Court determined the new boundaries, means more contested elections and more fundraising to stay competitive in more districts.
At the congressional level, federal reapportionment required that Pennsylvania lose one seat in its House delegation. The decision of Democratic Congressman Conor Lamb to not seek re-election and to make a run-in his party’s primary for the nomination to the US Senate provided a bit of breathing room, but here was still delicate political process of having districts absorb new territory as the state delegation was reduced from 18 to 17 in number. It’s important to note that Pennsylvania did not lose a seat in the House via the reapportionment process because our state is losing population. In fact, the population of Pennsylvania has increased to more than 13 million. The problem is that Pennsylvania is not growing as fast as states like Texas, North Carolina and Florida. Reapportionment is a realignment process for the US House of Representatives for the next ten-year period, akin to shifting sand. The most populous state in our nation, California, lost 2 House seats in the most recent reapportionment process.
Collectively the candidates from both parties in the 203 State House races, 25 State Senate races and 17 Congressional races have the challenge of finding campaign volunteers, fundraising contributors and media attention in the wake of the unprecedented contests for Governor and US Senator.
Finally, there is an element in the 2022 cycle that is particularly relevant to the statewide Senate and gubernatorial races. Polling and focus groups have captured the theme that “fresh faces” are needed in politics. With nominees Oz and Mastriano having not previously run for statewide office, that would seem to indicate that the GOP primary winners are better placed than their Democratic opponents. In fact, Oz has never been a candidate, while Mastriano has won election to the local State Senate seat. In contrast, both Shapiro and Fetterman currently hold statewide offices. Shapiro is the Attorney General and Fetterman the Commonwealth’s Lt. Governor. They may not qualify as a “fresh face,” but they will benefit from a wealth of political acumen. But Oz and Shapiro also have the perceptual hurdle of running to succeed an office holder from their own respective party, Republican Senator Pat Toomey and Democratic Governor Tom Wolf respectively. In legislative races the “fresh face” element is supplanted by the advantage of being a local candidate well known to many voters. Given the political turmoil of the past few years it is an element that will be critical.
As the Pennsylvania races for the US Senate and Governor bring both national attention and a barrage of television advertising, they will most certainly fulfill the political adage that elections are about choices and the future. The winners in Pennsylvania, John Fetterman or Mehmet Oz for the US Senate seat and Josh Shapiro or Doug Mastriano in the gubernatorial race, will be positioned to make important policies decisions in our national and state governments. Voting on November 8th in Pennsylvania could not be more important.
It has been proven time and time again that every vote does count. Whether you vote by absentee or mail-in ballot or in person, it is important that you vote!
