Lamb, Exotic Meats Up, Alt-Meats Down in July Retail Sales by Meatingplace Editors This item is contributed by Anne-Marie Roerink of 210 Analytics LLC, based on her research.
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he normalization of shopping patterns seen in the first six months of 2021 continued in July. Even more trips shifted back to in-store that now account for 87 percent of all trips. Shopping trips also averaged 32.3 minutes, the longest since March 2020. The share of home-prepared meals dropped to 76.6 percent of all meal occasions in July 2021, which is down from 82.0 percent in July 2020. At the same time, more consumers ate on premise at restaurants (50 percent), while restaurant takeout (53 percent) and delivery (21 percent) remained high. This ever-changing grocery and restaurant landscape is prompting continued changes for meat sales also. IRI and 210 Analytics analyzed the retail meat department performance in the first seven months of the year along with a July performance deep dive. The report is made possible by Marriner Marketing. INFLATION Meat prices, along with food inflation across the store, remained a big topic of discussion in July. IRI-measured price inflation shows that prices continued to rise 3 percent-4 percent over and above their elevated 2020 levels for total food and beverages in recent weeks. Meat prices (dollars divided by volume average at retail) were favorable
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Livestock Market Digest
than those last year throughout all of May and June, but prices did rise year-over-year come July. The last three weeks of July shows year-over-year inflation of about 3 percent-4 percent, in line with total food and beverages. The July numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) are scheduled to be released on August 11. PRICE PER VOLUME Across all measured meat and poultry items in the IRI retail universe, both fixed and random weight, the average price per pound volume stood at $3.89 in the first quarter of 2021 and rose to $4.08 in the second quarter. The average increased to $4.26 in July 2021. Price increases have affected fresh meat more than processed meat. Year-over-year, the average price per pound increased +6.0 percent for fresh meat and only +2.7 percent for processed meat in July 2021. Meat sales in the first seven months of 2021 Few departments are able to keep pace with their record 2020 sales and meat is no exception. During the first seven months of 2021, sales fell 4.5 percent when compared to the same time period in 2020. Fresh meat sales accounted for slightly more of that loss, at -5.2 percent. However, meat department sales are trending well ahead of the first seven months of 2019, at +17.1 percent, driven by the average number of at-home meals, which is still higher than the pre-pandemic period when food service was more evenly mixed in the household routine. “Shoppers are more accustomed to cooking now, so even as restaurants and mobility renews, eating at home is still seen as a cost savings,” said Jonna Parker, team lead for IRI Fresh. The pattern is very similar for year-to-date volume (pound) sales. The total meat department sold 7.8 percent fewer pounds in the
first months of 2021 than in 2020. However, meat pound sales are tracking 4.7 percent ahead of the first seven months of 2019. WEEK-BY-WEEK JULY SALES Independence Day week was the biggest of the four July weeks, at $1.8 billion in sales. Despite more Americans celebrating with gatherings for the holiday, this was down about 5 percent from last year. The subsequent July weeks averaged $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion in sales and came closer to the everyday July sales levels seen in 2020. All July weeks came in double digits ahead of the 2019 sales results. Source: IRI, Integrated Fresh, Total US, MULO, $ sales June However, the drop of home-prepared meals and the return to on-premise restaurant dining did result in the lowest volume gains versus the 2019 normal, at +1.3 percent. This is down nearly one percentage point from June. ASSORTMENT The meat department has yet to fully recover from the deep drop in assortment that took place in the early months of the pandemic. While the average items per store have recovered beyond the 2020 level come July 2021 (+4.6 percent), they are still tracking 4.5 percent behind the 2019 pre-pandemic normal. FRESH MEAT BY PROTEIN: LAMB AND EXOTIC MEATS GAIN The trend of down year-over-year results but continued elevated demand versus 2019 holds true for most individual proteins as well. There are two exceptions being lamb and exotic meats, which includes bison. Both managed to grow year-over-year sales, at +2.1 percent and +0.8 percent, respectively. This is despite a strong 2020 performance for these