Arizona Senate Race… Already

BY JIM ELLIS / THE ELLIS INSIGHT

The most interesting impending Senate race to date is unfolding in Arizona, and a new poll already suggests the close three-way finish that many are predicting will occur in November of 2024.

Senator Kyrsten Sinema leaving the Democratic Party to run as an Independent is likely her best scenario in which to win re-election. It was clear that she could not secure re-nomination in the Democratic Party, especially against a strong opponent such as Representative Ruben Gallego (D-Phoenix) who has since become an official candidate.

The Republican situation is unclear, but the Arizona GOP will produce a nominee capable of at least securing the Republican base vote. In a three-way race where all the major participants have a victory path, virtually any outcome can occur under yet-to-be-defined circumstances.

The Normington Petts survey research firm recently conducted a poll (1/18-23; 800 AZ registered voters) for three progressive left Arizona organizations testing Representative Gallego opposite Senator Sinema, and both 2022 Arizona gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake (R), who has not closed the door on running for the Senate, and former Governor Doug Ducey (R), who says a Senate race is not even a point under his consideration.

While the poll sponsors were highlighting Gallego’s performance, it is Sinema’s standing that has greatly improved since previous polls were made public. In the configuration with Representative Gallego and Ms. Lake, Senator Sinema, while still running in third place, improves her standing to 24 percent as opposed to 14 and 13 percent in December and early January polls that Public Policy Polling and Blueprint Polling released. Representative Gallego and Ms. Lake were tied at 36 percent apiece.

When Normington Petts tested Senator Sinema with Representative Gallego and former Governor Ducey, the Congressman held a 37-3127 percent advantage over the GOP ex-state chief executive, and Senator Sinema, respectively. Notably, the progression suggests that Senator Sinema is coming into a competitive position as the prospective candidates begin to prepare for a long three-way race.

Senator Sinema has not yet announced that she will seek re-election, but her change of partisan status to Independent is a strong clue that she will run. Otherwise, there was little reason for her to leave the Democratic Party since her ideology and vote pattern continues to remain consistent with her liberal roots.

The earlier polls, while possibly accurate at the time they were conducted, did not accurately portray Sinema’s underlying strength. It was difficult to believe that she had dropped to low double-digit support based upon her reasoning for making procedural moves within the Senate surrounding protecting the filibuster and opposing one of the major spending and tax measures.

As the campaign progresses, we will likely see Gallego move further to the left because he will need strong energized support from the Democratic base. Sinema’s gain in the Normington Petts survey when compared to the PPP and Blueprint earlier studies is largely coming from Democrats who previously supported her. Therefore, Gallego, assuming he doesn’t receive a major challenge for the party nomination in August of 2024, will have no choice but to strengthen his position with the far left in order to maximize turnout within this electoral segment.

Remember, in this type of election campaign, the three major candidates will be vying to get to 35 percent of the vote, and not 50 percent. Therefore, each political strategy will be very different than we typically see in a regular two-way electoral contest.

Representative Gallego moving further left, however, also becomes a double-edged sword. The further he ventures potentially frees additional moderate Democratic support to float to Sinema. This and improving her positioning within the self-identified Independent sector, which in Arizona is a full third of the electorate, would bring her into parity with the two major party candidates.

For the Republicans, speculation about the leadership attempting to recruit freshman Representative Juan Ciscomani (R-Tucson) into the Senate race is beginning to surface. With his tight victory in the politically marginal 6th District against a strong Democratic opponent and his potential appeal within the statewide Hispanic community, Representative Ciscomani would certainly be a Republican candidate who could win a general election in a three-way scenario.

It remains to be seen if he would risk the congressional seat he just won to attempt a statewide run so quickly. Former gubernatorial candidate Lake may become a candidate, but if the party leaders can clear the field for Ciscomani, he would likely be the premier contender that the GOP could field.

There are many moving parts in this early jockeying period from the Grand Canyon State. The most recent survey proves not that Representative Gallego is in the strongest position, as the poll sponsors promote, but that Senator Sinema is coming back into play as a potential winning candidate. The Republican saga, however, will require much more time to settle.

Wolves, coyotes, banning livestock

Wolves

Well, I guess we knew it was bound to happen.

A Mexican wolf has crossed north of Interstate 40. In other words it is now beyond the experimental population area in New Mexico. According to the NM Game and Fish, the female wolf traveled “farther north and east than any wolf of its kind since it was reintroduced in 1998.”

New Mexico Game and Fish has reportedly warned livestock producers that the wolf is protected under federal law and cannot be hazed or harassed. The endangered species act states:

“In carrying out the program authorized by this Act, the Secretary shall cooperate to the maximum extent practicable with the States. Such cooperation shall include consultation with the States concerned before acquiring any land or water, or interest therein, for the purpose of conserving any endangered species or threatened species.”

And under the prohibited acts section of the endangered species act, it states:

“remove and reduce to possession any such species from areas under Federal jurisdiction; maliciously damage or destroy any such species on any such area; or remove, cut, dig up, or damage or destroy any such species on any other area in knowing violation of any law or regulation of any State or in the course of any violation of a State criminal trespass law;

(C) deliver, receive, carry, transport, or ship in interstate or foreign commerce, by any means whatsoever and in the course of a commercial activity, any such species.”

So be aware the state is very involved with this issue.

Coyotes

A coalition of environmental groups has filed a petition with the Secretary of Interior to protect coyotes saying “that small statured Mexican gray wolves are often mistaken for coyotes and that protecting coyotes would in turn cut down on wolf deaths.” They want the Secretary of Interior to list the coyote as an endangered species anywhere the wolf might roam, claiming the illegal killings are the number one cause of death for the Mexican wolf, and that a good portion of those are claimed to be by mistaken identity. A spokesman for the Center for Biological Diversity said, “It’s an outrage that merely saying ‘I thought it was a coyote’ serves as a get-out-of-jailfree card for anyone who shoots one of these highly imperiled animals.”

They are right about one thing – this is an outrage.

Climate change

Last December I wrote: What will come of all this climate change push. espe- cially for ranchers and rural property owners?

It seems clear the enviros will use climate change as the lever to lobby for all the items on their agenda… and

–climate change will take a much more prominent place in all planning documents and decisions, including those on livestock grazing

Now take a look at what is happening in the European Union.

The highest Dutch court has upheld lower court rulings that found the country was failing to comply with European Union (E.U.) environmental regulations.

The ruling ordered the Dutch government to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 25 percent by 2020, which meant the country would almost have to double the amount previously obtained.

The Dutch government finally produced a plan to “radically” reduce livestock numbers by more than 35 million by 2030.

According to an article by Baylen Linnekin, the plan includes “paying some Dutch livestock farmers to relocate or exit the industry, and helping others transition to more extensive (as opposed to intensive) methods of farming, with fewer animals and a bigger area of land.”

And to top things off, they will be training future lawyers on the best way to sue you.

There is a national movement to mandate courses on climate change be a part of every law school’s curriculum. Two law professors recently wrote in a paper published by Cambridge University Press: Law students graduating in the coming decades will conduct their entire future practices in a web of climate law.

Climate change is still perceived as a niche topic – studied by those interested in ‘green’ issues and neglected by everyone else – rather than the socially pervasive issue that it is. Regrettably, this means that students are leaving Law School without a proper understanding of the legal framework or social context within which they will practise… Accordingly, this paper argues that climate change education should be compulsory and assessable content across the core law curriculum.

Note the “compulsory” in their paper.

Taxpayer dollars will be used to better train these attorneys who will sue you and other producers.

And New Mexico, no longer The Land Enchantment, will be the Land of Canis Lupus Baileyi. No longer seen as a place where the buffalo used to roam, but instead as a place where the wolves do roam.

Sorry about the negativity in all this. I could not figure out a better way to present it.

Until next time, be a nuisance to the devil and don’t forget that cinch.

Frank DuBois was the NM Secretary of Agriculture from 1988 to 2003, is the author of a blog: The Westerner (www. thewesterner.blogspot.com) and is the founder of The DuBois Rodeo Scholarship and The DuBois Western Heritage Foundation