Beef Import Picture Changes for Year Ahead

by Chris Moore, meatingplace.com

Good news for Brazil, Canada and Australia: The contraction in the U.S. cattle herd — expected to continue into 2023 — opens the door for significant increases in beef imports of all kinds in the year to come, according to a recent report by USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service.

After eight years of growth, red meat production, especially beef, is set for a substantial contraction during 2023, down two billion pounds year over year, due to shrinking cattle supplies, according to a report by CoBank. Meanwhile, demand remains high among U.S. consumers, despite historically high prices.

Brazil and Canada have become the United States’ top suppliers for beef trimmings, amid Australia and New Zealand’s pullback from the U.S. market, but in 2023, U.S. imports from Australia are expected to rebound from historic lows.

Duty-free access, an improved labor situation, and a rebuilding herd and cow slaughter rate — after a long period of devastating drought — will support Australia’s reemergence in the U.S. trimmings market, FAS projected.

FSIS is evaluating several prospective exporting countries to determine equivalency for beef imports. That means competition for space in the “Other Countries” trade quota could increase in the future — although, with far more production capacity than other countries in the category, Brazil is expected to remain the largest “Other Countries” participant in sending beef to the U.S.