BUTEND IS IN SIGHT SHAKEN SHAKE N

Northland’saverage property valueis $848,000, down 1.5% ($13,000)inthe last quarter, anddown7.7% ($71,000) year-onyear,accordingtothe latest figures from the OneRoof-ValocityHouse ValueIndex (taken at theend of March2023).

Thenationwide houseprice correction hasshakenNorthland,but notasseverely as otherNorth Island housingmarkets The region’s annual rate of declineisalmosthalf of NewZealand’s (down 12% year-on-yearto an averagepropertyvalue of $965,000), and well belowthe rate in Auckland (down 15.1% year-on-year) andWellington(down 23.4% year-on-year).

Theregion’saverage property valuehit a peak of $925,297 in April 2022, buthas since fallen 8.35% ($77,297). Forsellers andbuyers, it’s worthnotingthatNorthland’s current average property valueisstill 53.9% ($297,000) abovewhatitwas five yearsago Therateof declineinthe region’s averageproperty value haseased in thelastsix months,from arolling quarterlyaverage of 3.5% to just over 1%.

That pick up in theregion’shousingmarket is largely beingfuelled by valuegrowthin FarNorth TheTLA’s average property value hasgrown 1.5% ($12,000) in thelastquarter to $802,000. Whangareiand Kaiparaare still under pressure:Whangarei’s average property property valueisdown2.6%($23,000)in thelastquarter to $887,000while Kaipara’s dropped 3.6% ($34,000)to$908,000overthe same period

How much do houses cost in Northland?

TheOneRoof-ValocityHouse ValueIndex tracks thevalue of everyresidential and lifestyle property in NewZealand -whether it is on themarketfor sale or not.

Thetables on theopposite page featurethe latest average property forevery suburb in the region Thevalue isanindicationofhow much atypical home in each suburb is worthand howmuchitmight sell forifitwas listed on theopenmarket.

Themediansaleprice,asusedbythe Real Estate InstituteofNew Zealand(REINZ), tells youthe middlesaleprice of all theproperties that were sold during agiven time period.Both measures arevalid ways to gaugethe worthof your property TheREINZ median houseprice givesyou an idea of what buyersare payingfor listed propertiesinthe currentmarket.

AccordingtoREINZ, Northland’smedian saleprice in February 2023 was$715,000, down 8.3% year-on-year, but up 4.4% on the monthbefore.

Theregion’smediansaleprice peaked at $820,000 in March2022, accordingtoREINZ.

Most expensive andcheapest

Houseprices in Northlandinthe last 12 months rangedfromaslow as $135,000 for an entry-leveldo-upinNgawhaSprings, in FarNorth,toashighas$6.625m foraluxury home on Hector Lang Drive, in LangsBeach, Whangarei Theregion’smostexpensive location forpropertyisLangsBeach Therichlister suburb has an average property valueof $2.268m, down 4.1% ($96,000) year-on-year.

Thenext threemostexpensive suburbs in theregionare:Russell ($1.544m); Matapouri ($1.414m); andMangawhai Heads($1.377m).

Overall,there are23suburbs in theregion with 10 or more settledsales in thelast12 months that have an average property valueof more than $1m, down from 28 ayearago

Thecheapestsuburbs forpropertyin Northland areMoerewa,Otangarei and Kaikohe, in theFar North. Houses in all threecan be picked up forlessthan$400,000. Moerewa, in theFar North, has thelowest average property value, at $316,000, up 3.6% ($11,000) year-on-year. Theaverage property valueinOtangarei,inWhangarei,is$375,000, (down 13.4% year-on-year) whileKaikohe, in theFar North, has an average property value of $395,000 (up3.1% year-on-year).

Overall,there are49suburbs in theregion with 10 or more settledsales in thelast12 months that have an average property valueof lessthan$1m, up from 44 ayearago

Best and worst-performing suburbs

Of the73Northland suburbs with 10 or more settledsales in thelast12months, Rawene, in theFar North, recorded thestrongest yearon-yearproperty valuegrowth. Itsaverage property valuewas up 10.7% ($50,000) to $519,000.Property values in only 20 more suburbs were up on levels ayearago The suburb with thestrongest five-yeargrowth is Moerewa. Itsaverage property valuehas grown114.97% ($169,000) since March2018.

Northland’sbiggest year-on-yeardrop wasinTamaterau, Whangarei. Thesuburb’s average property valuefell17.7% ($236,000) in thelast12monthsto$1.099m. Thesuburb that has grownthe leastinthe last five years is Tutukaka, in Whangarei, though itsaverage property valueof$1.363m is still 28.9% ($306,000) abovewhere it wasinMarch 2018

Listings and sales

As of March20, 2023 therewere1976 residentialpropertiesfor sale in Northland on OneRoof.co.nz. Thereare twomeasuresof listings volumes that theanalysisbelow covers –total listings andnew listings.

Forbuyers andsellers, total listings shows youhow many properties thereare forsale, whilenew listings shows youhow much newstock has come onto themarket. Both numbersare an indicationofhow hotorcold themarketis, andwhere thebalance of powersits.

Totallistingsfor Northland on OneRoof.co.nz in Marchwas up 1.39% month-on-monthand up 54.86% yearon-year. Newlistingsfor theregionin the30daystoMarch 20, 2023 totalled 446, down13.9% year-on-year. Theannualrate of declineinnew listings waswellbelow the worst-hit regions: Hawke’sBay (down33%) andGisborne(down 53%),and belowthe nationwide rate of declineof17.9%,but above the8.55% rate of declineinCanterbury.

ForsellersinNorthland,the year-onyear rise in total listings suggestsfurther downwardspressure on prices.However,the factthatnew listingsare down suggesttwo things. First,new sellers areholdingoff until themarketimproves. Second,the decrease in newstock couldend up limiting therateofthe region’s houseprice decline, by increasingthe competitionfor listed properties.

Separate figures from REINZ showhow long properties aretakingtosellinthe region In February 2023, themediandaystosellfor Northlandwas 85 days –up from 50 days in February 2022 andmore than the10-year average forFebruaryof62days.

Thenationwide figurefor February 2023 was 60 days (up 18 days year-on-year). Northland’s tallyisthe highest nationwide, with Bayof Plenty the next highest71daystosell

REINZ figures also show thenumberof residential properties sold in Northlandin February 2023 was 126, up from 74 themonth before but down from 189 in February 2022.

TheimpactofCyclone Gabrielle will continuedtobefeltinthe region,and it is likely houseprices andsales volumes will take knockinthe short term,althoughthe new motorway infrastructurewill bolster property values in thelongerterm.

Who’s buying?

First-homebuyersare thebiggest buyinggroup in Northland. Their shareofnew mortgage registrationsinthe firstquarter of 2023 was 35.9%, down from 43%inthe previousquarter butup from 33%inthe firstquarter of 2022. Newmortgage registrationsby first-home buyers in Auckland in the firstquarter of 2023 was46%,and nationwideitwas 22.6% Newmortgageregistrationsbyinvestorsinthe firstquarterof2022was26%,upfrom18%in thepreviousquarterbutdownfrom19%inthe firstquarterof2022.Newmortgageregistrations byinvestorsinnationwidewas22.6%.