Market Indicators for the Home Building Industry in Northwestern Wisconsin February 2012 Volume 2, Issue 2
2011 JOLTS Data - First Year Since 2006 for Construction Job Growth The February release (December 2011 data) of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) confirms a prediction we made earlier in the year. 2011 was the first year for the construction sector for which total hires exceeded total job separations since 2006. For the overall economy, total hiring for December 2011 was relatively flat at approximately 4 million jobs. Total job openings increased to 3.4 million positions,up more than 5% since December 2010 and 38% since December 2009. The job openings rate continues to grow and now stands at 2.5%, the highest rate since the Fall of 2008. The growth in open positions bodes well for future employment growth in 2012. However, two challenges stand out. First, there may be mismatches between the skills needed by employers and those available. Second, disruptions in the housing market, including the ability of homeowners to sell their homes and prospective homebuyers to obtain mortgage credit, can also challenge the ability of employers to fill
open positions by recruiting workers who need to relocate. Despite the good news for the construction sector (residential and non-residential) for 2011, hiring slowed late in the year. Total hiring for December by construction firms stood at 289,000, the lowest level since January 2011. The hiring rate of 5.2% was also the lowest level since the beginning of the year. But for the year as a whole, total construction hires exceeded total separations by 46,000 positions. This is the first time since 2006 for which the construction sector added net jobs. For 2010, the sector lost on net 173,000 jobs. For 2009 the loss was nearly 1.1 million jobs. Losses in 2008 and 2007 were 799,000 and 203,000 respectively. The net 2011 growth for construction is relatively small compared to these recent losses, but these numbers show the impact the construction sector, and home building in particular, can have as multifamily starts continue to grow and a rebound in single-family construction takes hold.
Northland Area Builders Association, 29148 Mail Road, Danbury, WI 54830 Tel: 715-259-3486 | Fax: 888-825-8073 Email: naba@centurytel.net | Online: www.northlandareabuilders.com
Housing Dashboard Wisconsin Unemployment Rate
Wisconsin Construction Employment
(seasonally adjusted)
(seasonally adjusted)
Dec
7.1%
85,800
Wisconsin Privately Owned Housing Starts (# of units) 328
Nov Oct Sept
7.3% 7.7% 7.8%
83,700 86,000 88,100
491 645 733
August
7.9%
86,600
637
2011
71%
2009
70.4%
Source: US Census Bureau
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics & US Census Bureau
1 & 2 Family Housing Permits
2010
Ashland County
Bayfield County
Burnett County
Sawyer County
Washburn County
0 0 1 0 0
1 9 5 10 4
7 10 29 9 5
5 13 12 5 5
4 5 6 3 5
55
67
64
89
50
2011 November October September August July 2010 Year End Totals
Source: US Census Bureau/Wisconsin Builders Association
Wisconsin Projected Households 2005 - 2030
2000
2005
2010
2015
2025
2025
2030
Ashland County
6718
6935
7160
7370
7545
7674
7735
Bayfield County
6207
6624
7045
7484
7857
8135
8289
Burnett County
6613
7162
7670
8179
8629
8943
9120
Sawyer County
6640
7233
7830
8442
8952
9343
9599
Washburn County
6604
7151
7676
8219
8707
9067
9335
National
2084556
2208571
2322062
2442354
2557504
2654905
2738477
Source: US Census Bureau
Every 1,000 new homes built supports 2,043 full-time permanent jobs. Construction jobs supported by home construction in 2005: 73,227 Construction jobs supported by home construction in 2010: 12,985 WISCONSIN JOBS LOST DUE TO HOUSING SLUMP:
60,242
(Does not include indirect job losses - National Association of Home Builders)
Framing Lumber Prices
CME Futures Price
Wisconsin Homeowner Vacancy Rates
2011
2010
(per 1000 board feet)
Random Lengths Composite Price
Jan 27
£284
£240
First Quarter
1.8
1.2
Dec 30
£270
£249.30
Second Quarter
1.9
1.7
Dec 16
£265
£232.00
Third Quarter
2.5
1.9
Nov 18
£260
£240.00
Fourth Quarter Source: US Census Bureau
Source: NAHB
2011 Terms on Mortgages
1.6
Fixed rate 30 year conventional
Effective Rate (contract interest rate plus fees and charges)
Share of total market
Fixed rate 15 year conventional
Effective Rate (contract interest rate plus fees and charges)
Share of total market
December
4.45
70.0
4.40
3.3
November
4.52
70.3
4.32
4.7
October
4.48
72.4
4.14
2.0
September
4.69
75.1
4.56
1.3
Source: Federal Housing Finance Agency
Growing Optimism for Housing Rings in the New Year The new year has opened with a sense of growing optimism for housing. Existing home sales climbed 5% in December while inventories dropped more than 9% to a 6.2 months-supply, down from 7.2 in November, which should help reduce downward pressure on home prices and increase confidence in the housing sector. Single-family housing starts rose 4.4% in December to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 470,000, their fastest pace since the end of the home buyer tax credit program in 2010. This was consistent with recent improvements in builder confidence, as indicated by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), which rose to 25 in January ― its highest level since the summer of 2007. From an unsustainably high level in November, starts in buildings with five housing units or more fell 28% in December to a rate of 164,000 units, which was still 69% above the pace of a year earlier. Although overall construction hiring slowed somewhat in December, 2011 is expected to be the first year since 2006 in which total hires exceeded total job losses in the construction sector.
National Association of Home Builders
Consumer prices and producer prices ― including building materials ― were both flat at the end of 2011, after increases earlier in the year. The NAHB/First American Improving Market Index (IMI) has grown to 76 markets, many of which rely on health care and educational institutions for a solid economic base. As construction and other sectors continue to improve in 2012, the list of cities on the IMI is expected to grow. And housing has been receiving attention from the Federal Reserve, which remains concerned over foreclosures, prices and tight credit conditions, even as improvements in multifamily building provides a boost to some areas. Examining problems in the housing market ― including an excess supply of vacant homes, reduced availability of mortgage credit and an inefficient foreclosure process ― a Fed white paper concludes that restoring health to the housing market is necessary to promote a more robust economic recovery. While suggesting possible solutions, the paper indicates that there is no one policy that will accomplish this task.
List of Improving Housing Markets Expands to Nearly 100 National Association of Home Builders
The list of housing markets showing measurable improvement expanded by 29 metros in February to include a total of 98 entries on the National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI), released today. Thirty-six states are now represented by at least one market on the list. The index identifies metropolitan areas that have shown improvement from their respective troughs in housing permits, employment and house prices for at least six consecutive months. The February index adds some metropolitan areas that have been particularly weak; this is due to the fact that the IMI measures improvement from a bottom, and some of the hardest hit markets are showing signs of coming off of extreme lows. Keeping this in mind, notable new entrants to list in February include Miami, Fla; Boston; Detroit; Kansas City, Mo.; Portland, Ore.; Memphis, Tenn.; and Salt Lake City. “The number of improving housing markets has risen for six consecutive months, and 36 states now have at least one metropolitan area on the list,” noted NAHB Chairman Bob Nielsen, a home builder from Reno, Nev. “This indicates that despite the many challenges that continue to drag on a housing recovery – including the tight lending environment for builders and buyers – improving conditions are slowly but surely
spreading from one housing market to the next.” “While many of the markets on the February IMI are far from fully recovered, the index points out where employment, home prices and housing production are no longer retreating and have held above their lowest recession troughs for six months or more,” said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. “This is a sign that a large cross section of the country is starting to turn the corner as local economic conditions stabilize.” “The fact that there are nearly 100 markets now on the improving list shows that the momentum is building for a housing recovery and that more buyers and sellers are starting to feel confident enough to return to the market,” said Kurt Pfotenhauer, vice chairman of First American Title Insurance Company. The IMI is designed to track housing markets throughout the country that are showing signs of improving economic health. The index measures three sets of independent monthly data to get a mark on the top improving Metropolitan Statistical Areas. The three indicators that are analyzed are employment growth from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, house price appreciation from Freddie Mac, and single-family housing permit growth from the U.S. Census Bureau. NAHB uses the latest available data from these sources to generate a list of improving markets. A metropolitan area must
see improvement in all three areas for at least six months following their respective troughs before being included on the improving markets list. Seven markets dropped from the NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index in February as they experienced softening house prices. These metros include San Jose, Calif.; Washington, D.C.; Kankakee, Ill.; New Orleans; Worcester, Mass.; Jackson, Miss.; and Sherman, Tex. A complete list of all 98 metropolitan areas currently on the IMI, and a separate breakout of metros newly added to the list in February, is available at: www.nahb.org/imi.