FEATURE
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HOW THE HOUSING CRISIS COULD HURT THE TORIES FOR GENERATIONS TO COME By Oliver Clark, Economics (2020)
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here has yet to be a more exciting and engaging time in my life to be an avid follower of politics. It seems that there is a new twist on the rollercoaster every time one checks the headlines or opens up their Twitter feed. The previous days’ groundbreaking discovery or breakthrough is nearly always made redundant by lunch time, whether it be the erratic Brexit negotiations, the troubles of the Eurozone, or the unpredictability of Donald Trump. Yet for the vast majority of the population who are not spending their days watching Politics Live, reading the Spectator magazine, or listening to the latest episode of Brexitcast, there are a number of issues that are far more important to daily life than these massive global debates. One of the most pressing matters for this country is the deep-rooted housing crisis. A home is not just an asset that one acquires, for many it is a representation of stability, security, and when comparing to private renters, affordability (renters pay approximately 40% of their net salary on rent, compared to home owners forking out just 20% of their salaries on mortgage repayments). A mortgage can eventually lead to a property that you own outright and can keep for as long as one sees fit, whereas a standard rental contract can last as little as six months. Yet the current housing situation is not a pretty picture, with a lack of affordable housing to buy and rocketing prices of private rent. The housing issue is also exacerbating the current generational divide which is shaping our politics. If the Conservatives survive the current turbulence that is the negotiations with the EU, they need to urgently inject some serious vigour into their domestic policy. If they fail to do so, Jeremy Corbyn, John McDonnell, or one of their acolytes, are all too ready to pounce at the next General Election, something which may damage the Tories for generations to come.
The housing issue is also exacerbating the current generational divide which is shaping our politics.
Figure 1: Government Briefing Paper, 9 June 2017 In his 2015 Tory Party Conference speech, David Cameron called for a ‘democracy of home-ownership’, echoing back to the days of Thatcher’s push for a ‘property owning democracy’, when she set up her Right to Buy scheme (where council house tenants could buy the property at a heavily discounted price). One’s status of home ownership is a key determinant of how you vote. One of the key drivers of the success of the Conservative Party over the last century has been due to their positioning as the party of aspiration and home-ownership, the belief in the equality of opportunity and not outcome, rewarding those who strive to succeed. If one works hard from the day they leave education, a house to call their own is the ultimate goal of this vision. But with home ownership rates at their lowest level in over 30 years, particularly among young, middle class professionals, this aspiration is becoming little more than fantasy to voters, as they look evermore forlornly at the ladder being pulled away from them. If the Tories do not fix the broken housing market, the ever-growing number of voters without capital are going to question the point in voting for the party of capitalism. According to the English Housing Survey, now just 1 in 4 renters in social housing expect to be able to buy their own home in the future, down from 30% in 2017. Their lack of optimism is understandable. In a 2018 study, the IFS found that for those born in the late 1970s, 43% owned their home by the age of 27. For those born in the late 1980s, that figure 11
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04/09/2019 17:55
