Week Ending 15th November 2015
NEFS Research Division Presents:
The Weekly Market Wrap-Up 1
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Contents Macro Review 3 United Kingdom United States Eurozone Japan Australia & New Zealand Canada
Emerging Markets 10 China India Russia and Eastern Europe Latin America Africa South East Asia Middle East
Equities 17 Financials Oil & Gas Retail Technology Pharmaceuticals Industrials & Basic Materials
Commodities 23 Energy Precious Metals Agriculturals
Currencies 26 EUR, USD, GBP AUD, JPY & Other Asian
2
Week Ending 15th November 2015
THE WEEK IN BRIEF
Unemployment falling
Eurozone growth disappoints
Unemployment is now at its lowest level since 2008 in the UK, as it dropped 0.3% over the third quarter to 5.3%, continuing the trend it has set over the past two years, falling from 7.8% in August 2013. This reflects the increasing strength of the UK labour market, which is contributing to a healthier look to the UK economy. Meanwhile, Australian unemployment surprised many by decreasing 0.3% for the month of October alone. Coming in well below forecasts, unemployment is now at 5.9% in the economy. The US labour market is also looking strong; impressive employment data at the end of last week detailed a fall in the unemployment rate to 5.0%, as well as a better than expected non-farm payrolls report. Despite some mixed data for the US this week, with disappointing retail sales, the world’s markets still wait on the potential for a rate hike by the Fed.
This week we found out that the growth rate for the region fell to 0.3% for the third quarter of this year, coming in worse than most forecasts and down from 0.4% in the previous quarter. Weak international trade has been blamed for pulling down growth in Germany and Italy in particular. The news comes as further evidence of the fragility of the recovery in the Eurozone, and gives even greater impetus to the case for stimulus in the Eurozone. Mario Draghi again signalled that he is ready to extend monetary loosening, it seems only a matter of time before further QE is implemented by the ECB.
Chinese inflation remains low CPI inflation for China hit 1.3% this week, remaining well below the stated inflation target of “around 3%�, continuing a trend of low inflation. While low fuel prices are dragging down inflation rates across the board, there is some concern in China over domestic demand, which appears to be slackening, with growth rates declining considerably in recent times.
Commodity prices plummet The price of oil fell closer towards $40 this week, while the price of other commodities also dropped. OPEC has maintained their production of oil, which has driven down prices as supply continues to outstrip demand. In fact, signs of weakening demand, particularly from China, are having an effect on most commodities. Precious metals have fallen considerably; gold, silver, platinum and palladium have all declined over the week. Of course, the strength of the dollar and looming US rate hike have also been major contributors to the lower prices, and with the US economy looking strong in comparison to a weakening global economy, it seems that low commodity prices are set to stay for the time being. Jack Millar
3
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
MACROREVIEW United Kingdom A report published by the British Chambers of Commerce has stated that UK export growth has fallen to its lowest level since 2009. British exporters have been particularly hit by a strong pound due to the recent slowdown in many emerging economies, which has negatively impacted an already fragile and price-sensitive exporting goods sector. This is going against the government’s pledge to double the value of exports to £1 trillion a year by 2020. The report estimates that at the present rate of progress it will take until 2034 to achieve that target. Indeed, UK trade has long been a source of concern, running a trade deficit every year since 1997. However David Cameron has recently been explicitly targeting and forming ties with emerging economies. After signing £30bn worth of trade deals with China, this week he announced £9bn worth of deals between the UK and India.
concern is that the trade balance on goods has shown a long term downward trend, with a weak outlook for projected improvement. In other news, the unemployment rate fell to 5.3% in the third quarter, down from 5.6% in Q2 and its lowest level since April 2008. This follows recent trends in the UK labour market of record employment and rising wages. Britain’s working age employment rate is at 73.7%, its highest level since records began. However earnings grew slower than expected, at only 2% compared 3.2% in the previous quarter, demonstrating why the Bank of England is hesitant on an early interest rate rise. Nevertheless, strong domestic performance is needed to outweigh weak foreign demand. As a result the outlook for growth remains positive, albeit modest. Matteo Graziosi
Despite the present strong pound providing difficulties for manufacturing exporters it cannot be regarded as solely negative. The exporting services sector has a healthy surplus which is growing, as illustrated below. Services are not as price-sensitive as goods, so the strength of the pound should not have a significant impact. In addition, an increase in the value of sterling pushes down the cost of imported goods and energy, a significant contributor to the current zero inflation. This supports the growth of disposable incomes and consumer spending. Therefore, as long as the pound doesn’t become significantly overvalued, it can be regarded as an economic stimulant. The
4
Week Ending 15th November 2015
United States Much of the data over the last few weeks has concerned the labour market due to its effects on inflation and as such, interest rates. This week’s focus is on both consumers and producers. Consumer data is particularly important at this time of year as the US heads into the crucial holiday shopping season. Moreover, fourth-quarter GDP growth will hinge largely on consumer spending (consumer spending is 70% of the US economy) as manufacturers take a hit from the weakening global economy. Data from the Census Bureau showed month on month retail sales grew at 0.1%, missing estimates of 0.3%. Retail sales remained static in the previous month, as shown in the graph below. Elsewhere, preliminary data on consumer sentiment, a level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers, reached a four-month high as it rose by 3.1 from last month to 93.1, beating a forecast of 91.3. The survey of approximately 500 consumers asks respondents to rate the relative level of current and future economic conditions. Financial confidence is a leading indicator of consumer spending. The growth in confidence was due to a firming labour market and lower fuel prices.
Moving onto the producers, the producer price index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month on month, slightly lower than last month’s drop of 0.5%. This was also lower than the predicted gain of 0.2%. The producer price index is a leading indicator of consumer inflation as the higher costs of goods and services from producers are typically passed on to the consumer. Deflationary pressures at the producer level seem to counteract encouraging signs from consumer data for a rate hike in December. Laura Rosner, a US economist at BNP Paribas said, “It is a fragile environment to be raising rates. It confirms why the Fed is likely to move very slowly because the inflation outlook remains uncertain and fragile.” Next week we have data on the US consumer price index (CPI), a core component of inflation. The Fed’s target inflation rate is at 2% but it is generally thought that monetary policy affects inflation with a two-year lag. The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting minutes will be released on Wednesday, which will provide us with in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates. Sai Ming Liew
5
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Eurozone It was announced this week that the GDP of the Eurozone as a whole grew by 0.3% in the last quarter, in the three months up to September. As we can see from the graph on the EU GDP growth rate below, this is slightly smaller than the 0.4% recorded in the last quarter and 0.5% in the first quarter of 2015; EU GDP growth is below the markets forecasts. This is the also the smallest growth in GDP this year. Within the Euro area GDP growth was less than expected in a large proportion of the countries including Italy and Germany. France’s economy expanded at a faster rate than expected, however only grew 0.3% during the last quarter, while the Finnish and Greek economies actually shrunk during the quarter leading up to September by 0.6% and 0.5% respectively. Since these figures were released by Eurostat, European stock markets have begun to decline with the disappointing news; the CAC and DAX are both in the red. The lower-than-expected GDP growth rate is likely to increase the chances of the European Central Bank increasing the level of the stimulus in the 19 countries of the Euro area.
In other news, this week the Eurozone trade surplus increased to €20.2 billion in September of 2015 from €17.4 billion last year. Euro area exports to other counties increased by 1% whilst imports from outside the Eurozone declined by 1% annually. However, compared to the previous month, exports grew by 1.1%, exceeding import growth of 0.5% in the Euro area – Eurozone exports rose to €173.4 billion from €171.8 billion in September 2014 while imports decreased to €152.8 billion from €154.4 billion in the previous year. Germany, France, Netherlands and Italy take up a large proportion of total trade with the Euro area. Germany's trade surplus rose to €15.4bn in September from €15.2bn in the month before, whilst there was a €0.5bn jump in Italy's surplus to €2.7bn, while France's trade surplus declined to €2.0bn from €2.4bn. The increase in the Eurozone trade surplus was larger than economists expected, they predicted that the trade surplus for the 19 countries of the Euro area would be €19.3 billion. Kelly Wiles
6
Week Ending 15th November 2015
Japan This week Japan’s current account surplus was reported to have increased four-fold in the period between April and September compared to the previous year. The ¥8.69 trillion surplus quadrupling has been on the back of a weak Yen and the continuing slide in crude oil prices. Lower energy prices have been very significant for Japan, as the nation has been dependent on energy imports since the earthquake and tsunami struck in 2011. In value terms, the Finance Ministry reported that the imports of crude oil fell by 34%. The upward trend in the current account, as shown by the black line on the graph below, under the backdrop of weak household consumption is further evidence of the mixed signals in Japan’s economic recovery. While many of the recent improvements in current account have been due to falling oil prices, the inception of Abenomics has played a significant role in weakening the Yen. The currency has depreciated roughly 40% against the US dollar since early 2012, which has been hugely beneficial for Japanese businesses. With Japan Inc. seeing record profits, PM Shinzo Abe and his government have put pressure firms to play their part in reflating the Japanese economy. This pressure may finally be bearing fruit as regular wages increase for
the seventh consecutive month. However, adjusted for inflation wages increased by just 0.5% in September compared with the previous year. Yoshitaka Suda, an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc. expects that “wages will probably continue to rise as corporate profits are improving and supply-demand conditions in the labour market are tight”. According to Bank of Japan board member Yukata Harada, the wage growth required for BOJ to achieve its inflation target would be 3% – well above the current trend. Academics and business representatives also think that more needs to be done, as a panel called for a sharp hike in the minimum wage at the Council of Economic and Fiscal Policy meeting on Wednesday. Representatives wanted increased base pay for employees and a reduction in corporation tax to below 30%. Corporation tax is currently 34.6% in Japan – one of the highest rates across advanced economies. Both of these proposals should increase the pay packets of workers. The central bank will need to see earnings growth to stimulate household consumption, boost consumer confidence and ultimately reflate the economy following its two decades of deflation. Loy Chen
7
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Australia & New Zealand Positive sentiments spread this week as Australia’s unemployment rate fell from 6.2% to 5.9%, the lowest rate of unemployment since April 2014, as shown on the graph below. The number of jobs created outperformed the 15,000 forecast at 58,000. Meanwhile, work ethic is on the rise, as the monthly hours worked in all jobs increased by 1.2%. Improvements have largely been in the 15-24 year old bracket, which had previously been the drag on the labour market. New South Wales set the path to improvement as unemployment fell by 0.3% with Victoria experiencing a reduction to 5.6%, however, South Australia still has the highest unemployment rate at 7.5%. The uncertainty over rate cuts has settled after this news was released. JP Morgan’s Tom Kennedy agreed that it’s unlikely that rates will be cut in the December meeting. An unexpected turn of events after the rise in variable home loan rates by Australia’s Big Four banks. This is because a fall in unemployment results in a rise in income, increasing consumption and creating a potential increase in inflation, therefore a cut in rates may push the inflation rate above the 2-3% target. Elsewhere, New Zealand’s RBNZ financial stability report came out on Tuesday. The report mentioned the “heavily indebted dairy sector” which has seen debt triple to $34.5
billion over the past 10 years as farmers exceeded borrowing levels. Incomes in the dairy market are low due to lower international prices, especially in milk, however the report stated that, despite this, banks “have the wherewithal (money) to cope with their current level of dairy debt”. Auckland’s housing market also took the spotlight. Prices have risen 27% faster than the rest of the country over the last 3 years. The report stated that Auckland is missing around 20,000 houses, as population growth overtakes the rate at which houses are being built. Increasing immigration, low interest rates and a shortage of supply are continuing to put pressure on the market. There are concerns over the size of loans given to homeowners, and the Bank proposed to change its policy on “high loan-to-value ratio (LVR) lending”- a measure of how much a bank is willing to lend against a mortgaged property compared to the value of the property. Monetary easing in Europe and Japan are encouraging investment in riskier assets. As a result, high and rising asset prices are making the economy more vulnerable, especially when interest rates return to their normal level. Meera Jadeja
8
Week Ending 15th November 2015
Canada Last week, Statistics Canada announced that 44,400 new jobs were created in Canada in October, which was over four times more than the figure that economists were expecting. However a report published by Capital Economics this week states that they expect unemployment to actually increase from 7% to 7.5% by the end of 2016, despite last week’s hopeful figures. This comes as Canada, a country which is largely dependent on resource exports, is still struggling to adjust to the new environment of low oil prices. This has meant that energy firms have cut back on both their investment and hiring, as business confidence has been affected. The charts below show the crash in the oil price towards the end of 2014, which contributed a large part to Canada’s temporary recession earlier this year. The Bank of Canada’s policy response to the recession has been monetary easing, and interest rates have been lowered to 0.5% in the hope of stimulating growth.
The report by Capital Economics also draws attention to the fact that the number of highpaying jobs in Canada have been declining for the first time since the 2008 crisis. This includes professional, scientific, technical, and energyrelated jobs. The key point to note is that although Canada is creating more jobs, the majority of these are temporary, part time, or low paying. If the economy continues to struggle, then this labour market slack will add to the downward pressure on inflation. CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation is already at 1%, which is on the lower boundary of the Bank of Canada’s target range of 1–3%. The Parisbased Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) predicts that the possibility of a rise in Canada’s interest rate (the target for the overnight rate of interest) will be likely at the end of next year. The OECD also predicts that Canada’s relatively weak economic outlook will turn around only towards the end of 2016. Shamima Manzoor
Source: Bloomberg
9
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
EMERGING MARKETS China The National Bureau of Statistics published the consumer price index (CPI) for October 2015 on Monday this week. The CPI measures the change in prices of services and goods purchases, and compares it to the prices in the same month one year earlier. Hence, consumer prices are accounting for the majority of overall inflation. In October yearly CPI went up by 1.3% compared with October 2014. Looking at the increase in M2 money supply, which is closely linked to interest rates, which grew about 13.5% in October, the relatively low inflation rate is surprising at first sight. But taking the actual value of new loans into account, only 514 billion yuan provided to consumers and businesses which is just a little more than half the value forecasted. Muted inflation gives the PBOC room for further easing. According to last Friday’s third-quarter Monetary Policy Implementation Report, China’s central bank will maintain a stable policy and thereby create a neutral monetary and financial environment for economic restructuring. Furthermore, the PBOC said the economy faces downward pressure and inflation is likely to be low. As could be seen in the graph, China’s inflation rate has remained low since 2014.
“The moderation of CPI has definitely opened up room for the PBOC to ease further,” said Zhu Qibing, a Beijing-based analyst at China Minzu Securities Co. “But this year, the effectiveness of monetary policy in boosting demand has been limited. So even if the central bank has room, it may not cut interest rates again until next year.” A low inflation rate is actually a bad sign for China’s trade balance. If China’s inflation rate is lower than the inflation rates of other currencies then this results in a relatively higher value of the RMB, as the exchange rate adjusts to increased domestic prices. Imports would become cheaper and domestic goods would become more expensive for foreign consumers. Hence, relatively low inflation rates lead to an appreciation of the RMB. As a result, the export sector, which is currently the driving force of China’s GDP growth, faces some risk of a downturn if the RMB is affected. However, as most of the major currencies faces similar trends, this risk seems relatively small, especially as the PBOC continues to artificially depreciate the RMB. Consequently, this week’s published trade balance shows that China has exported even more than in the previous month. Alexander Baxmann
Figure 1 Inflation rates October 2010 - October 2015
10
Week Ending 15th November 2015
India Data released on Thursday by the Central Statistics Office showed that industrial output slowed to its weakest rate since May, whilst inflation accelerated to 5%, its highest level in three months. The information reveals the substantial challenges facing policy makers looking to boost growth, as well as perhaps a reason for current uncertainty regarding the popularity of the dominant party. Industrial production, a measure of output in the manufacturing, mining and utilities sectors, rose 3.6% from a year earlier, falling short of the predicted 5.0% increase. The slowdown can be primarily accredited to subdued performance by manufacturing and non-durable goods segments, reflecting that during the current festival period, durable consumer goods are generally in higher demand. Consumer inflation rose to 5%, surpassing an expected rate of 4.8%. Inflation is measured using the consumer price index which observes the price changes in a specific bundle of goods. Food and beverages is the most important category, accounting for almost half of the index, which also weighs up housing and transport. The rate has been driven up mostly by rising food prices, following a drought for the second straight year in much of rural India. The detrimental impact of a 14% rain shortfall is reflected in the inflation rate as it varied between rural and urban areas where rural
India saw a much higher price rise of 5.5%. The diagram below illustrates that this trend has been consistent throughout the year. Prime Minister Modi’s attempts to prune a subsidy regime which has long supported the rural economy will not be welcomed in light of a surge in the prices of items like lentils and pulses, which rose significantly by 42%. This could have worrying political implications for the government, whose popularity has been waning as of late following social unrest and a bruising election defeat in Bihar, India’s third most populous state. However, analysts believe that this is not a cause for concern and that inflation is in line with expectation given the time of year. It’s also expected that the rate will moderate once festival demand eases. The fall in industrial output will strengthen calls for another reduction in the interest rate before the end of the year, but the uptick in inflation is likely to encourage policy makers to take a cautious stance. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) expects inflation to soar to 5.8% in January and, considering the looming rate hike by the Federal Reserve, it seems that the interest rate will remain at 6.75% when the RBI’s decision is announced on the 1st December. Homairah Ginwalla
11
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Russia and Eastern Europe News released this week logged a shrink in Russia’s economy of 4.1% in the third quarter, which was comparatively better than the 4.6% decline in the second quarter of 2015, as shown in the graph below. While this is without doubt a good first step on what is a long road to recovery, opinions are split as usual. With oil prices still dangerously low and inflation hovering at the 15% rate, the Central Bank of Russia concedes that the “lowest point of deceleration of investment activity has not yet passed”. The Bank went on to specify the weak areas, releasing figures showing a 0.4% decrease in month-on-month investment in fixed capital – obviously this is not indicative of growth coming anytime soon. Slightly more optimistic is emerging markets economist Liza Ermelenko’s news that the third quarter improvement was driven by the industrial sector. This indicates that Russia may be adaptable and able to rekindle economic growth in the long run without relying too heavily on oil production. As expressed last week, this could be a chance for Russia to restructure and correct economic flaws that simply were not sustainable. She explains that the “worst of the recession appears to be over.”
In addition, sector news was released giving us a better understanding of the specific shortfalls rather than just the broad picture we have seen so far. Services has been falling, due to the high level of inflation that remains looming over consumers. Agriculture and investment, conversely, are up with the former seeing a 4% increase as a result of the imported foods ban, which encouraged domestic production. Slightly more positive estimations come from Sberbank, which predicts that we will see 12% nominal wage growth after deleveraging stops in 2016 and households start to borrow again. Ultimately, Russia is starting to look up to some extent, and it seems that the worst is over. With Russian equities exceeding the MCSI Emerging Markets index this year it seems much more likely that investment will hike in 2016. However, if oil prices continue to fall then this could hinder investment. The IMF have highlighted $40/barrel as a worrying level for oil price, saying that economic recovery is unlikely if prices fall below it. While the current futures price, then, of $40/barrel is slightly concerning, we can only hope that the price stability forecasted comes to fruition and that economic prosperity for Russia is just around the corner. Tom Dooner
12
Week Ending 15th November 2015
Latin America Over the last few months we have seen the Federal Reserve’s pursuits to increase interest rates repeatedly dampened. Each time there was a sign of hope, new figures such as poor US jobs growth rates have been reported, causing confidence and momentum to be lost. However, last Friday’s Non-Farm Payroll results were much stronger than predictions, with 271,000 job creations. This is important as it hints at the overall health level of the US economy. This result reinforced the Fed's conviction to increase interest rates, pushing equities markets down and bonds yields up as well as strengthening the dollar. Regardless of what the decision may be, it will have significant effects on other economies, especially developing ones. For example let’s take the case of the Mexican economy. This is seen by recent months, the Mexican Peso has depreciated around 13% and could see future, more significant changes in the coming months, which would be beneficial for Mexico as they are net exporters to the US. Imports are currently at $214,800M while exports are worth circa $294,000M and so the further depreciation would see exports increase, as they are relatively cheaper for US consumers when compared to domestically produced goods. While a depreciating exchange rate would also cause the price of
imports to increase, impacting on production costs for Mexican producers, the net effect should be positive for the economy, Another country that has recently been heavily affected by the dollar is Brazil, whose currency has lost around 50% over the last year on the dollar, causing the country to post a record trade surplus, despite its poor recent economic performance. The Fed’s decision as to increase the interest rate may be a defining the path for many economies around the globe. This not only holds for developing countries but developed economies as well, as is the case of Europe. With an average growth of around 0.25% for the second quarter of 2015, an increase in interest rates by the Fed may hinder European countries on their way to recovery. Euro/Dollar parity may be approaching for the first time since 2002. Furthermore, in the coming months, monetary stimulus seems certain to be on the cards, with Draghi outlining clear intent to ramp up the ECB’s current QE programme. If one thing can be said, it’s that exciting times lie ahead in the FX markets and emerging markets, as many look forward to the first Fed rate rise in nearly 10 years. Max Brewer
13
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Africa Despite the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirming Kenya as the most successful economy in Sub-Saharan Africa, the country has become unable to repay foreign debts. Kenya has struggled for many years with unsustainably high levels of debt, however latest figures show government debt to have expanded to 49.8% of GDP (see graph). Instead of facing IMF imposed sanctions, the country has asked for a reform of its economy. National Treasury Cabinet Secretary Henry Rotich has proposed various austerity measures to gradually reduce the country’s debt and ensure all future repayments are met on time. Measures include new taxes, freezing public sector recruitment, wage reviews and a purge on ghost workers in county governments. Whilst Kenyan IMF representatives and politicians believe these changes will be effective, many fear otherwise. The resulting increased unemployment will worsen the social situation, similar to the process we have seen recently in Greece. Higher taxation will decrease consumption, leading to lower economic activity and a reduced standard of living. Finally, a fall in government social spending will lessen the quality of governmentprovided services, limit new employment potential and reduce infrastructural investment. However if effective, the country will see easier lending, leading to new investment in the economy.
Six years after Zimbabwe got rid of its old currency and adopted the Zimbabwean Dollar, a recent appreciation of the Dollar has let the country fall back into crisis. Exports have been made globally uncompetitive, especially in Southern Africa, which has been detriment in Zimbabwe’s balance of trade. Imports are now much cheaper which has caused deflation, consequently reducing consumption and increasing the value of government debt. A large rise in investors from the underground market has worsened the deflation by deterring foreign investment. As a result, more than 80 businesses in Zimbabwe shut last year, and only 34% of Zimbabwe’s manufacturing capacity is being used. However some would still argue in favour of the change to the Zimbabwean Dollar, despite its repercussions. The Dollar forces fiscal discipline on the government and requires inspections of the Zimbabwean economy by international boards, hence increasing accountability and responsible spending. It is also argued that the economy’s lack of competitiveness is due to the heavy trade and business regulations imposed by the Mugabe-led government, and thereby the Dollar is simply being used as a scapegoat for deeper political issues. Charlotte Alder
14
Week Ending 15th November 2015
South East Asia For the past few years economists have branded the Philippines as the “sick man of Asia” due to long periods of unequal growth, poverty and unemployment. Now, GDP growth has risen to an average of 6.7% per year, shown in the graph below, which is staggering when compared with the other South East Asian countries, one being Singapore, who just avoided technical recession. After decades of political corruption scandals, including the Priority Development Assistance Fund Scam, in which members of congress received more than $6 billion dollars, President Aquino has set the path for good governance and it seems the Philippines are ready to reap the benefits. Traditionally the Philippine economy has relied on remittances from the US, Middle East and Asia, which is essentially money coming in to the country from workers who have migrated to seek employment. Last year, $24.3 billion was sent home by over ten million overseas workers, which accounted for 8.5% of the country’s GDP, whilst providing greater stability against global shocks such as a possible US interest rate hike. Usually, a 0.6% fall in remittances would cause major alarm bells to ring for their economy, but after 16 years of economic growth and an increasing number of people in work, the
government is now viewing this slowdown with more optimism. The IT services industry is expanding rapidly and has been the driving force behind this economic growth, with revenues growing at an annual rate of 25% between 2007 and 2012. In addition to this, the Philippines is one of the “youngest” countries in Asia, with population expected to reach 142 million in the next 30 years. If economic growth is stable, it could attract investments from around the world, therefore giving them increased competitiveness compared with other countries such as Vietnam and Malaysia, due to the combined factors of their ability to speak English and rapidly rising youth. However, the real test is whether the Philippine government can provide the right infrastructure and investment to educate this young population to succeed in this highly skilled IT industry. With infrastructure spending well under 5% of GDP, the government will need to act quickly given that competitors such as Vietnam are set to see their manufacturing industry peak after the Trans-Pacific Partnership terms were released last week. Alex Lam
15
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Middle East As NBAD celebrates 40 years of success in Egypt, more and more banks in the country are raising the interest rates on their three-year saving certificates by around 2%. This move is expected to support the currency and also increase the likelihood of a central bank rate hike next month. Meanwhile, the lending and deposit levels of Saudi banks are expected to be affected in the next few quarters, owing to the impact of the lower oil prices filtering down to lower public spending, higher government drawdowns from bank deposits and banks subscribing to governments' domestic borrowing programme. Furthermore, more limited lending opportunities for banks are anticipated, given the government’s publicly announced plans to postpone some investment not currently underway, as well as the strong correlation between economic activity and government spending. As a result of the recent decline in oil prices, oil, gas and related sectors are expected to see a dip in the creation of new jobs in UAE and Middle East. However, given the build-up towards Expo 2020 in UAE, the FIFA World Cup 2022 in Qatar and increased focus on infrastructure development, UAE and other Middle East Countries might see an increase in employment with increasing number of jobs
being generated over the next few months, especially in the construction sector. Not only that, people already a part of the existing workforce are expected to benefit, and may see an increase in their salary by about 8.5% in 2016, with the highest adjustment expected among those who hold in-demand positions and add value to the company. Businesses are actively seeking skilled professionals for new roles and to fill open vacancies thus driving salary rises well above average for in-demand roles. Hard-to-fill roles are experiencing higher than average pay rises due to the increased competition for these candidates. Kuwait is planning to increase spending on infrastructure in 2016, as OPEC’s fifth-largest producer seeks to offset the impact of lower oil prices on economic growth. The government of Kuwait aims to reduce current spending, which typically includes subsidies and wages, to shore up public finances. Estimates predict that Kuwait's economy may expand by 1.2% this year, and by 2.5% in 2016, whereas growth in Saudi Arabia is expected to slow down from 3.4% to 2.2% in 2016. Sreya Ram
16
Week Ending 15th November 2015
EQUITIES Financials The financial equities markets have struggled this week, partly due to the falling commodities prices, with the NASDAQ Financial 100 Index falling 3.5% this week. On Friday George Osborne announced that £13bn of former Northern Rock loans and mortgages would be sold off, with £3.3bn going to the UK challenger bank, TSB, and the rest going to US equity firm, Cerberus. Furthermore, the fierce competition of the asset management industry was highlighted today as Blackrock and Charles Schwab both cut exchange traded fund fees as they try and win over more customers. I have mentioned in my previous articles the trend of restructuring in the banking industry, most notably Deutsche Bank, Credit Suisse and Standard Chartered in recent months. This week, Italian bank, UniCredit [BIT: UCG], showed it would be following a similar fashion. Low interest rates and a sea of regulations have meant the biggest bank in Italy is having to cut 18,200 jobs by 2018, which amounts to 14% of the workforce. This is part of a cost cutting project, which aims to reduce costs by €1.7 billion by 2018. Most of the costs will be saved through commercial and retail banking in Germany and Austria, while the Ukrainian branch of the business will be sold off. This
news has seen the bank’s share price fall 9.2% since Wednesday, however, at this share price it is trading at 0.8 times the value of its tangible assets, suggesting it may be undervalued by the market. The commodities trader, Noble, had a tough week with the relatively small research firm, Iceberg Research, suggesting the company had used false accounting. Although Noble denied overstating the value of the commodities it held, it was forced to halt trading on its stock on Thursday morning as it consulted its auditors, Ernst and Young. In addition, the firm later released its Q3 results, in which it announced its profits had fallen 60% to $24.7 million dollars. The company attributed this to extremely low metal prices, which is unsurprising as the price of copper is at a 6-year low, while gold is at its lowest since 2010. As the company is also faced with $3 billion worth of debt repayments over the next year, we can expect to see it struggle. This has been reflected by the market as the share price of the company has fallen 65% over the past year, as is shown in the graph below. Sam Ewing
Share price of Noble over the last year (Source: finance.yahoo.com)
17
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Oil and Gas Much of the week was dominated by news from Saudi Arabia, which intends to keep pumping oil at the high rates it has maintained this year in spite of the slump in crude prices, and will tap international capital markets to cover the shortfall in its revenues. As a result, Brent crude (COZ5: ICE EU), the global benchmark, fell to below $44 a barrel this Friday from above $47 last week. E.on (EOAN: ETR), Germany’s largest utility by market value, has been hit especially hard by the significant decline in commodity and energy prices this week, which, combined with the Energiewende (Germany’s radical shift towards clean energy sources), led to its biggest writedowns on the value of its power generation assets. Losses stood at €7.25bn for the three months to September 30th, and the company reported impairments of €8.3bn in the third quarter. The company’s shares closed at $8.72 on Friday, down about 8.2% from $9.5 last week. Even at a time when crude prices are low and oil and gas producers are under severe financial pressure, it has been difficult for deals to take place and reach agreements due to the vast difference between buyers’ and sellers’ expectations. On Wednesday, Anadarko Petroleum (APC: NYQ) confirmed that it had rejected a takeover offer by Apache (APA: NYQ), a fellow US oil exploration and production company. Apache shares jumped
13% on Monday after the unsolicited takeover approach, but were down again 6% on Wednesday following Anadarko’s statement, as shown on the graph below. But even after this week’s bump up, over the past five years its shares have dropped by 54% Last week, I talked about Exxon Mobil’s investigation into its allegedly suppressed climate-change research and findings; the world’s largest publicly traded international oil and gas company shares have risen from about $69 at the end of August to $87 just last week. Now, Exxon’s shares are trading at around $78. Investors should take the climate change coverup investigation as a wake-up call. Climate change considerations, and how they will affect both energy suppliers and users, should now be central to nearly any investment decision. It doesn’t seem to be the case at the moment, as securities of companies most susceptible to physical and regulatory climate risks are not seen to trade at a discount on the market. But this should not merely be a “sell dirty and buy green” approach. Instead, investors should look at companies that are addressing the increasing regulatory risks. These include both renewable-energy firms and traditional suppliers that are investing aggressively in energy efficiency, carbon reduction and cost competitiveness. Andrea Di Francia
18
Week Ending 15th November 2015
Retail In much the same vein as recent weeks, retail equities have failed to show a great deal of fluctuation, with most sectors being only slightly down amidst news of consumer sales failing to grow as much as expected in October, insinuating a possible slow-down in consumer spending as the upcoming holiday season draws nearer. The performance of the Dow Jones Consumer Goods Index can be seen in the graph below. As such, department stores were particularly blighted by the news, with department store Macy’s diminished forecasts being compounded by Nordstrom’s similar woes, spooking investors who will have already had existing concerns over the lack of retail sales growth in the US. This has certainly not been ameliorated by a relatively small yet pronounced drop in foreign sales growth for US retailers. Retail equities have largely been bright spots in a 2015 backdrop of fears of a global slowdown, in addition to anticipation of a US rate hike, hitting most stocks, especially those of companies in the energy, materials, and industrial sectors. Given the aforementioned news, as well as existing fears
regarding a lack of consumer sales growth and disappointing holiday forecasts, it seems that retail equities may no longer be as attractive a proposition in the near future. Elsewhere in the sector, however, some promise was shown, particularly thanks to SABMiller and Anheuser-Busch agreeing a behemoth of a merger, with talks of a £71 billion takeover having been finalised recently. The resultant company will supply nearly a third of the world’s beer, assuming their share of the market remains constant, and Lazard analysts are predicting a £1.4 billion decrease in costs for the new company, even allowing for the cost of mitigating competition concerns from US regulators, another indication of the size, scope, and significance of the merger. In fact, SABMiller, a FTSE 100 company, has had to sell off a share in a joint-venture with MillerCoors, so as to prevent a monopoly being formed. It is the hope of the author that other companies in the retail sector will continue this impetus, and deliver tangible earnings growth and cost decreases in the near future. Jack Blake
19
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Technology Two large firms seemingly weakened this week, with Samsung suffering a short downfall, with prices dropping to $551 – a 4.6% fall from this week’s high of $577.50 (Monday’s price). Meanwhile, Microsoft shares are also down this week, with a drop of 4.3% to $52.59, another minor drop from Monday’s high of $54.93. News surrounded Apple this week with the deliberation of the addition of person-to-person transfers to their Apple Pay – a currently present system that allows consumers to make payments for goods using their iPhones. This addition comes vital to the company considering that Apple’s service has struggled to progress since last year’s launch, even despite the addition of new and valuable merchant partners such as KFC and Starbucks. Shareholders hold hope that if Apple, who has yet to comment, does progress with this plan, then profits will certainly be boosted. Even though companies do not gain any revenue from person-to-person transfers since the service is free, such convenience will certainly attract a greater deal of users, who in turn will boost Apple’s share prices. Such adaption to this feature is essential in an ever-changing market, particularly with forecasts set for person-to-person mobile transfers expanding an incredible 25% annually
– intended to reach $17 billion before 2020. Regardless of this potential expansion, this week finished with Apple shares being down from $121.74 to $112.78 – a 7.4% fall for the giant tech-firm, as shown on the graph below. This move proves possibly threatening to PayPal, whose Venmo app (one of the fastest growing US payments app) is currently a market leader. This app’s news feed allows users to see their friends payments to other friends – a highly rated feature, where Venmo’s volume of payments tripled throughout this year’s third quarter, relative to a year ago – excelling a phenomenal $2.1 billion. The news of Apple’s plans, for direct competition with PayPal, saw PayPal losing a 2% value in their share price on the NASDAQ exchange, from $37.02 to $36.05, throughout Wednesday due to rising fears amongst shareholders. It’s not just these companies taking action to this new trend, with Facebook launching a payments service earlier this year, which allows users to send money through the FB messenger app, whilst Google Wallet offers such a similar feature. However, adoption of these services is seemingly low; it is clear that there is need for further adaption and alteration. Daniel Land
Apple’s weekly share price
20
Week Ending 15th November 2015
Pharmaceuticals Pharmaceutical equities have continued to fall as the expected slowdowns to the healthcare sector have started to materialise. Ralph Segall of financial analysts Segall Bryant & Hamill suggests that falling sales growth, political pressures in the US over drug price hikes and attempts to avoid tax, alongside industry-wide accounting misdemeanours, are affecting the whole sector. The FTSE 350 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Index fell by 4.38% and this trend resonated in the US as the NYSE Pharmaceutical index fell by an additional 2.48%. Additionally, one of the most recent hostile takeover battles has just come to a seven month end. A number of hedge funds had been greatly impacted by the news that generic drug company Mylan failed to acquire smaller Dublin-based rival Perrigo. Both companies had recently moved their headquarters out of the US, exemplifying a trend that is likely to be followed by other Pharmaceutical firms including Pfizer. The bid launched by Teva Pharmaceuticals to takeover Mylan earlier this year may have been the driving force behind Mylan’s attempt to increase market capitalisation as we are going through an M&A spike in this industry.
Mylan only offered to buy 40% of Perrigo, a store-brand, cold and allergy based company, which would have left it short of control. The deals collapse caused Perrigo’s shares to fall by 6.5% to a new 13-month closing low, and Mylan’s share price rocketed by 12.58% by the end of the day. Mylan’s price climbed because investors thought that it was overpaying for Perrigo and believed that a combined entity was a less profitable strategy. A large number of hedge funds, including New York based OZ Management, who lost $30 million on this investment last Friday, had a stake in this deal which highlights the struggles that hedge funds have experienced this year. In other news, over in China, 11 applications for new generic drugs have been rejected in a move by the China Food and Drug Administration (CFDA) to crackdown on inadequate self-testing. Although only a minor short term set-back, this follows the pattern that China is in the midst of a major health reform effort. Reinforced by China’s ageing population, analysts view the CFDA’s possible reforms, which may increase insurance coverage and reimbursement payments, as a key to the upcoming growth of multinational Pharmaceutical companies. Sam Hillman
FTSE 350 Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology Index
21
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Industrials & Basic Materials Three weeks ago we covered Glencore and the mined commodities sector. Our focus this week will be on Glencore and Anglo American PLC, the world’s fifth-largest miner. This week, Glencore is again in the red as its shares dropped to below a pound for the first time in a month with a continuous 6-day sell off in the stock as slumping metal prices have stalled. Glencore is now the worst performer in the UK's FTSE 100 Index with its share price dropping 68% after a rout in commodity prices. The shrinking profits, massive $30billion debt and worries over its business model going forward have left investors and funds cutting their positions in the company. Glencore and the price of copper have the tendency to envelope one another and with the recent plunge in copper prices amidst the strength of the Dollar as well as the Fed's intention to raise interest rates in the meeting next month, has severely affected Glencore. Anglo American PLC, the world's fifth-largest mining company by market capitalization, has had its share price fall 60% this year to a new
low of 478.65 pence each, its lowest since listing in London in 1999. On Thursday, the company also announced the departure of its iron ore chief and a renewed focus on sales and marketing. The management shuffle is timely as Anglo American is trying to turn around its fortunes after underperforming in comparison to its peers such as BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto. Although they have all been hit by the slump in commodity prices, alongside the slowdown in China, Anglo American is largely invested in the costly $8.8bn Minas Rios iron-ore project, which it launched at a time when the prices for iron ore spiralled towards historic lows. With the strengthening of the Dollar and impending interest rate hike as well as the falling growth expectations for the economic growth of China – the world’s largest consumer of raw materials, the outlook for mining firms seems bleak, with commodity prices forecast to remain low. The cash pile of companies such as Glencore and Anglo American are severely depleting and the need to preserve cash is as crucial as ever. Erwin Low
22
Week Ending 15th November 2015
COMMODITIES Energy Energy prices have collapsed dramatically this week after OPEC – the cartel responsible for a third of the world’s output – stated that the “oil overhang” had grown even bigger than during the financial crisis. North Sea Brent, the international benchmark, fell 8.1% during the week to $43.56 a barrel, the lowest since August, while US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slumped 8.2% to $40.70 per barrel in the same period. Apart from Natural Gas, energy prices on average have fallen a staggering 7.3%. Speaking on Thursday, OPEC concluded that inventories of crude oil in advanced economies were more than 210m barrels above average over the past 5 years, outstripping the build-up following a price crash in 2009. Furthermore, more than 100m barrels of crude oil and heavy fuels are being held on ships at sea, as a yearlong supply glut fills up available storage on land. One reason given by OPEC for this price crash and subsequent oil glut has been the markets reacting to the forces of demand and supply; an unusual occurrence for the energy commodity. One of the cartel analysts declared that “the build in global inventories is mainly the result of the increase in total supply outpacing growth in
world oil demand over the first nine months of this year.” There is significant evidence to back this claim. Due to the laws of demand and supply, you would expect a movement down the demand curve after a shift outwards in supply as there is excess supply. Indeed, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA), drivers have been opting more often for “larger, more fuelguzzling vehicles” such as SUVs since last year, especially in America and China. Overall the IEA expects demand to grow by 1.9% this year, well above the average for the past decade, of 0.9%. Yet it appears fairly certain that low oil prices look set to stay for the foreseeable future. Saudi Arabia, OPEC’s de facto leader, has exhibited no hint of overturning its policy of keeping the taps open in an attempt to win back customers from higher-cost producers. But these prices are not to last forever. OPEC along with BP has forecast that the crude price will settle at around $60 next year as global demand rises ever higher and output from non-cartel organisations begins to fall. Harry Butterworth
23
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
Precious Metals This week we have seen the precious metals sector prices continue to dip to historically low levels. Gold prices dropped to their lowest in 5 years and copper has also dropped to its lowest price since 2009 as investors around the world eye the Fed’s next move. Falling prices are pulling down producer shares, pushing the Bloomberg World Mining Index to a five-week low. Gold prices have been pushed down further from 1108.24 USD/oz. to 1078.33 USD/oz (see chart below). A report showing the US jobless benefit claim is unchanged since last week has signalled that the US economy is strengthening as unemployment rates continue to stay low while boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to increase interest rates. The percentage chance of an interest rate hike next month has increased to 66%, and as mentioned last week, the higher rates curb the appeal for gold as they lose their competitiveness against assets that pay interest or dividends. Purchases of gold have jumped 8% to 1121 metric tons in the last three months. The lower prices have spurred demand as the buying of gold including gold bars, jewellery and coins have risen to the highest in two years. This can be attributed to other institutions and central banks which increased their purchases of gold
as well as countries like China and Russia who are also looking to boost their reserves. Festive seasons such as Diwali in India have boosted the demand for gold as jewellers look to hoard more gold because of the attractive prices. Silver has also continued to plunge as it falls to almost 14 USD/oz., nearing its lowest level since 2009. Silver is one of the most volatile metals and its moves and fluctuations tend to be higher than the other metals. The strengthening of the dollar is hurting the precious metal’s prices as both industrial and investor demand remain weak. In other news, Platinum and Palladium prices have continued to fall and this has caused Lonmin Plc (the third largest platinum producer)’s share price to drop 29% as it is said that the company is looking to sell billions of its shares. With the strong US economic data, all eyes would be on the Fed as investors all around the world closely await the more-than-likely decision of an interest rate hike in December. Higher rates would mean a stronger US dollar which, coupled with a weak global economy, would be a negative for the Precious Metals prices. Samuel Tan
Gold Price Trend
24
Week Ending 15th November 2015
Agriculturals The last couple of weeks concluded an overall decline in agricultural commodities’ prices and are justifying global predictions. At the beginning of October, the World Trade Organisation (WTO) Public Forum has received information that increasing production of the goods will be likely to suspend or depress the current prices for the next ten years. However, although the general trend is unfavourable to producers, individual industries may still experience more positive shifts in prices due to unpredictable factors. Consequently, this week’s focus is on the production of oranges.
there a negative relationship between the level of production and time, but the rate of change is also increasing; just between October and November (2015) months there was -6.25% in production, which was a significant rise relative to the 2013-2014 (-22.2%) and 2014-2015 (7.14%) yearly fluctuations. As mentioned previously, increased production due to sharp rise in global population is desirable - if not essential. According to US Department of Agriculture, projected future estimates for Florida’s orange production in 2015-2016 cycle is 74 million boxes (90lb/box). As a result of the contracting supply, prices are being pushed upwards, as a result of excess demand for the good.
Citrus greening disease (also known as HLB), a serious threat to citrus plants in North America, seems to retreat and cause a significant decline in production of citrus fruit, including oranges. The main concern involves knowledge that, once the pathogenic bacterium enters the tree, it stops bearing fruit and, eventually, is killed.
Juice prices are peaking up since 6th of this month and already reached $156.25/lb by 12th November (Diagram A). As there is no treatment for infected trees, future values are believed to continue rising and soon to be reflected in supermarkets. Although the variation in orange production and prices doesn’t follow the predictions of WTO, the overall trend is unlikely to change as this commodity is just one of many that influence the overall outcome.
As reflected in the Diagram A, orange juice prices remained relatively stable between 22 nd October and 5th November, averaging at $134.18/lb. However, the current forecast on the impact of disease isn’t favourable. Diagram B indicates significance of HLB on the production of oranges in Florida. Not only is
Goda Paulauskaite
A – Price
B-
25
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
CURRENCIES Major Currencies EUR/USD continued its decline this week, dipping below 1.07 and meeting resistance at 1.0680, but neither the bulls nor bears could gain control and the pair continued to largely trade sideways, despite continuing to test lower support levels. However, Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank signalled on Thursday that the bank was ready to extend the Quantitative easing stimulus programme to boost Eurozone recovery. Highlighting that ‘signs of a sustained turnaround in core inflation had weakened’, his comments reinforce similar warnings released in October. Core inflation strips out price changes for more volatile items such as food and energy; it is seen as a more reliable indicator because of this. It is now expected that further action could be taken as soon as December, when the ECB next meets. Stating that ‘the option of doing nothing would go against price stability’, it is likely that the ECB could release a more aggressive quantitative easing package and even consider further cutting interest rates. On the back of this news the euro dropped 0.5% to $1.0692, before quickly recovering and settling close to the 1.077 level. It appeared the market was waiting for the release of EU GDP figures and further US economic data on Friday
before entering into another full sell off of EUR/USD. However, the pair continued to trade within the week’s range as Eurozone GDP came in on target, and US retail sales disappointed. French and German GDP came in at 0.3%, matching expectations. Eurozone GDP also posted a gain of 0.3%, just shy of the 0.4% forecast. Despite these results failing to inspire Eurozone confidence, the pair only narrowly gave way, trading down to 1.0755. The Euro was saved somewhat by soft US data. Retail sales in October missed expectations, coming in at 0.1%, where consensus lay at 0.3%. The price came under pressure in anticipation of the US market opening and these data releases, falling to 1.0655. Despite the disappointing US data the pair continued to decline throughout the day and Friday’s close came only marginally below the weeks open. Continuing from last week’s technical analysis, the price is still well below the 20 SMA, and all indications point towards a further decline. Next week holds key US and EU data releases, and I expect we will see a more decisive price movement. We will also analyse sterling vs dollar, as a host of UK releases lie ahead. Adam Nelson
26
Week Ending 15th November 2015
Minor Currencies Aussie dollar fell sharply against its US counterpart late in last Friday’s trading after strong US non-farm payrolls and unemployment reports were released. The AUD/USD pair fell over 100pips from a price of 0.715 to 0.704. Consequently, the pair began this week trading within a lower range than last week - between a price of 0.702 and 0.706. The Westpac consumer confidence index was released late on Tuesday 11th, which is calculated from a survey of 1,200 people in which respondents subjectively rate the economic climate. The index rose from 97.8 the previous month, up to 101.7, indicating a higher level of consumer confidence. This caused a minor uptrend in AUD/USD and meant the pair traded within a slightly higher range, breaking through the 0.706 level of resistance. Price movement slowed down as traders stalled opening positions in anticipation of the Australian employment report. Traders holding back due to any bearish sentiment about the Australian dollar would have been very right to do so. The very sharp up candle early on Thursday was due to exceptional changes in employment and unemployment. Unemployment fell from 6.2%
to 5.9% when it was forecast to rise 0.1%. While, perhaps more dramatically, employment had previously fallen by 5,100 jobs but there was a sharp turnaround with 58,600 new jobs created this month. Investors reacted well to the newfound strength in the Australian economy with the pair rising to levels similar to last week. There was then some correctional down movement in the pair before it found the clear uptrend highlighted in the graph below. The uptrend could continue into next week if the sentiment about AUD remains strong. Therefore the AUD/USD pair should trade within higher range next week with 0.716 becoming the main support price. Generally it was a fairly quiet week for other minor currencies. The Canadian dollar was unable to profit on its own relatively strong employment data, an additional 44,000 new jobs. The fact the vast majority of its trading is done against the US dollar meant the comparatively better numbers from the US cancelled out any gains that could have been made and so CAD fell about 1%. Will Norcliffe-Brown
AUS/USD 1 hour candlestick (Source: OANDA)
27
NEFS Market Wrap-Up
About the Research Division The Research Division was formed in early 2011 and is a part of the Nottingham Economics and Finance Society (NEFS, formerly known as NFS and UNIS). It consists of teams of analysts closely monitoring particular markets and providing insights into their developments, digested in our NEFS Weekly Market Wrap-Up. The goal of the division is both the development of the analysts’ writing skills and market knowledge, as well as providing NEFS members with quality analysis, keeping them up to date with the most important financial news. We would appreciate any feedback you may have as we strive to grow the quality and usefulness of weekly market wrap-ups.
About the Research Division
For any queries, please contact Jack Millar at jmillar@nefs.org.uk The Research Sincerely Yours, Division was formed in early 2011 and is a part of the Nottingham Economics and Finance Society (NEFS, formerly known as NFS and UNIS). It consists of teams of analysts closely monitoring particular markets and providing insights into their developments, digested in our NEFS Market Wrap-Up.& Finance Society Research Division Jack Millar, Director of theWeekly Nottingham Economics The goal of the division is both the development of the analysts’ writing skills and market knowledge, as well as providing NEFS members with quality analysis, keeping them up to date with the most important financial news. We would appreciate any feedback you may have as we strive to grow the quality and usefulness of weekly market wrap-ups. For any queries, please contact Josh Martin at jmartin@nefs.org.uk. Sincerely Yours, Josh Martin, Director of the Nottingham Economics & Finance Society Research Division
As featured on: Sponsors: Platinum:
Gold:
28