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Is Asia Ready to Lead the World in
The capacity to survive depends upon our ability to adjust quickly—however painful the adjustment may be— Lee Kuan Yew, opening speech of the Trade Union House and Singapore Conference Hall on 15 October 1965.
radically new and different situation to a
The Asian Chapter Begins
Our World in 2030 Disruption comes in many forms. The emergence of the Asian century, unrelenting technological advancements, and overpopulation of urban spaces are all challenges to our current way of life. They bring radical changes to systems that have been in place for decades. Some governments will turn these challenges into opportunities for their people to thrive, others will not.1 As a new world order is debated upon and built around us, we need to better understand how to navigate the challenges and take advantage of the opportunities in a rising Asia. Drawing on Asian and Western experiences and thought, the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) represents academic and intellectual excellence in the service of meaningful public policymaking. Join us as we establish the critical areas that policymakers and governments need to strategically assess and plan for over the coming decades.
Challenges & Opportunities of 2030 Globalisation & De-globalisation The World’s Centre of Gravity is Moving East Data & Connectivity Working With AI Public Well-being Reinventing Healthcare and Providing Opportunities for Billions Urbanisation Mastering Megacities
Globalisation & De-globalisation
By 2030, the world’s economic centre will be situated between India and China.3 4
The World’s Centre of Gravity is Moving East
Asian markets will outpopulate the entirety of the world by 2030. It will hold cultural influence, economic power and political sway over the world for the next 50 to 100 years.3 4 Mass-produced goods will become more expensive if the trade war escalates.2
Business practices, popular culture and media narratives will take on an Asian flavour.3
For nearly a century now, small nations have maintained independence, autonomy and self-determination by operating within an international system of rules and norms created by Western powers. However, that rules-based order has weakened—leading nations’ arbitrary use of power and gradual withdrawal from the international system signal the potential end of globalisation and the beginning of de-globalisation.
Indeed, de-globalisation is already underway. Populism is rising as an increasing number of countries prioritise “nation-first” concerns over international collaboration. 2 3 Communication networks are flooded with narratives of East-West tensions. Major powers are reversing decades of multilateral cooperation by withdrawing from the international rules-based order.5
The United States and China’s drawn-out trade conflict has led scholars to speculate if it was a sign of a power transition and if they were heading towards a “Thucydides Trap” military clash.6 As of time of publication, trade deals are in the works to reduce tensions between the two nations.7 Potential military conflict aside, the global transition from a unipolar American Century to something not yet fully formed raises other concerns. What leadership will
the international community have in the future? What can small nations do toward a new order? The rise of Asia is seemingly unstoppable, with China and India as the world’s largest economies. Small nations can help craft the new international system, but the exact steps needed remain to be mapped. The way our communities adjust to this new international system will be fraught with risk and working out our strategies will take the highest priority.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robots will soon staff 40% of all jobs in the world.8
Data & Connectivity
Working With AI Artificial intelligence (AI) and robots will soon staff 40% of all jobs in the world.8 This projection evokes apprehension about humanity’s place in a community of tireless, mechanised workers. While digitisation and automation enable corporations to drive rapid revenue growth and higher productivity, those that form the lower rungs of the workforce could be left without the means to lift themselves above the poverty line and improve their quality of life.8 Despite the potential risks, the majority of innovators, leaders, and researchers are hopeful that machines could augment human capabilities.9 Digitisation and AI technologies are already improving the speed and accuracy of medical diagnostics and climate change predictions.10 In the near future, they could help predict crop yields, track criminal movements, and provide tailored retail services.11
By 2030, self-learning AI will be used to optimise governance and judicial ecosystems through law and policy recommendations.17 18 AI and robotic officers will be deployed alongside human police to increase the effectiveness of law enforcement by 2030.13 14
As repetitive tasks are automated and occupations are redesigned, innovative technologies could generate new jobs to supplant those they displace.12 Humans could learn to cooperate with machine intelligence through robust education and upskilling programmes. By applying our human knowledge and insight, we might gainfully use AI to its fullest potential. Technological disruptions offer a multitude of benefits and trade-offs. Will digitisation and AI further exacerbate the divide between the rich and the poor? How should inequality be measured in a world where a powerful few own infinitely expansible technologies? Will introducing rigorous governance of digitisation and AI improve humanity’s overall well-being, or become a trap for anyone without access to it? What will happen to the workforce of Asia?
150B
US$
China will lead the world through the development of AI. Its domestic AI industry alone will be worth an estimated US$150 billion by 2030.15 16
Public Well-being
Reinventing Healthcare and Providing Opportunities for Billions Public well-being is the holistic care for citizens’ quality of life in the areas of finance, housing, employment, and mental and physical health. A nation’s productivity, competitiveness, and prestige are intricately tied to the quality of its citizens’ welfare.19 Government spending on public well-being varies drastically across the globe. Low-income countries spend a meagre US$0.03 for every US$1 spent by high-income nations. The ratio has remained true since 1995 and could hold true beyond 2030. As a result, people in many parts of the world suffer poor standards of healthcare and are unable to improve their living conditions. Without a global organisation mandating cross-border policy interventions, it is unlikely for low-income nations to improve their welfare system for the benefit of their own people.20 21
1.4 billion individuals around the world will be over 60 years of age by 2030, up from 901 million in 2015.26
Government sectors may be rearranged to cater to ever-complex citizen priorities in agile teams and multidisciplinary resources.1
Finishing second on the Global Competitiveness Index of 140 economies, Singapore’s public welfare is one of the most efficient systems in the world.22 Unlike most developed nations, the city-state spends less than 5% of its GDP on healthcare, yet its citizens are relatively healthy.23 24 25 Singapore champions selfreliance through mandatory savings, enabling citizens and permanent residents to finance future medical expenses, home ownership, and retirement.23 24 Can Asian countries emulate Singapore’s healthcare system and realistically adapt it for their own use? What government interventions, policies, and processes could best complement a nation’s healthcare system?
Pervasive sensors and trackers may become ubiquitous to daily life. People may be constantly monitored in exchange for tailor-made treatment and medicine.27
Worldwide healthcare expenditure will rocket to US$16.04 trillion by 2030, up from US$9.21 trillion in 2014. Mounting costs will force hundreds of millions into extreme poverty.24 25
Urbanisation
The number of megacities worldwide will increase by 12 to a total of 43 by 2030.35
Mastering Megacities
For the first time in history, more than half of the world’s population live in urban areas. By 2030, city dwellers will make up approximately 5 billion out of 8.1 billion people—an increase from 3.4 billion in 2013. 28 29 Humans gravitate toward urbanity in the hopes of greater job prospects and the chance to achieve a higher quality of life. 30 Unfortunately, many Asian cities are unprepared for the influx of rural migrants due to inadequate planning and investment in housing and welfare. 31 In some nations, the density of cities are matched by the persistent growth of slums. 30
The United Nations (UN) defined megacities as metropolitan areas that house more than 10 million inhabitants.34 35
When it comes to urbanisation, Singapore is a study of multiple successes. In its first years of newfound independence, almost three-quarters of its 1.6 million-strong population lived in squatter colonies. The country’s urban planners investigated past examples of high-rise, high-density public housing in the West and designed policies to overcome pitfalls that plagued those projects.32 A mere generation later, Singapore went from third-world to first, with one of the highest population densities in the world comfortably housed on limited land.
Singapore’s success story is the work of a master planning committee and interdisciplinary contributions from experts of every government department. 32 With its continuous efforts to become a smart city, Singapore is a living laboratory for the creation of urban technologies that could improve the lives of millions in Asia. 33
By 2030, 25% of the world population will be living in slums as urban areas swell beyond capacity. Sheer numbers will cripple basic public services meant to protect and aid its citizens.36
Urban planners and policymakers must take into account essentials such as the quality of air, water and transportation when building a city’s overall infrastructure. With more challenges to come, what should cities of the future possess to ensure its residents thrive and enjoy fulfilling lives? What should the new urban indicators be for successful city planning?
Challenges of the Future
Governance in an Age of Disruption The greatest disruptions of 2030 will occur within the four areas of focus LKYSPP has identified. From capitalising on the power shift to the East, to achieving a gainful relationship with technology, innovatively revamping global public welfare, and finding ways to make megacities smart and sustainable, unprecedented opportunity awaits us in the new Asian century. In this time of rapid change, governments have to monitor the impact of existing policies to understand issues as they arise.
Leaders must reconsider traditionally hierarchical policymaking processes and create agile, adaptive systems to interact with the private and civic sectors. Even as older strategies become obsolete, they open opportunities for novel solutions. It is vital for institutions to understand that as the people, cities, and countries they govern change, so too must public policies. LKYSPP envisions a world transformed through good governance, leadership excellence and supported by evidence-based policymaking.
The age of disruption is here, and it requires a strong, united response to overcome. Our shared journey to 2030 will be paved with great challenges that leaders around the globe must understand, confront, and remake into opportunities.
Multidisciplinary Big Science Approach
Our Big Science Approach
LKYSPP’s Sputnik Moment is Here The Sputnik moment references the point in time where USSR leapfrogged United States in their space programme by putting the first functioning satellite into orbit. Consequently, the Americans redoubled their scientific efforts in the Space Race and landed the first human on the moon. LKYSPP recognises that a great transition is taking place in the current world order, and with it, undisputed disruptions to geopolitical, economic, technological and social sectors. This is Asia’s Sputnik moment. Drawing on the common challenges presented by modern-day governance and Singapore’s developmental history, LKYSPP intends to utilise a concerted “Big Science” effort to further good governance and public policymaking.
TO EMPOWER
LKYSPP is situated in the heart of Asia and at the crossroads between East and West. We are uniquely positioned to shape the region’s research agenda to meet various challenges and leverage fresh opportunities.
future policymakers by equipping them with real-world experience and practical solutions. Through our wealth of resources and knowledge, we invest in a new generation of successful and informed Asian leaders.
On the international stage, we provide an Asian perspective from Singapore’s development story. Our Big Science approach will require transnational cooperation. In building Asia’s research and advocacy capabilities, LKYSPP will be able to make the most of our collaborations with researchers and practitioners across the world.
TO ADVANCE cross-border knowledge exchange through research collaborations. By augmenting the depth and breadth of our academic reservoir, we advance future policymaking in Asia.
TO CREATE unique solutions and collective, timely responses for emerging issues by engaging thought leaders in insightful conversations. Lending local and regional leaders’ credible knowledge and opinions, we enable stronger governance and better policymaking.
Join Us to Create a Positive Impact for Asia
Now is the Time As forward-looking scholars, we strive to understand the power shifts and disruptions across the world and explore their geopolitical implications for regional order in Asia. As transformational educators, we aim to equip policymakers with the ability to mediate growth and nurture future thought leaders for this exciting time of change.
The Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (LKYSPP) is a leading global public policy school in Asia offering cutting-edge research and education in public policy and international affairs that are tailored to the needs of today’s policymakers, civil functionaries, and private and not-for-profit sector professionals.
Our goal is to raise funds to multiply the effect of our research impact on Asia and the rest of the world, by collaborating with experts through multidisciplinary thinking, policy engagement and education. Your support will help us accelerate our efforts to create greater leadership value, build a stronger base of research expertise, and guide Asia and the world to a brighter future through improved governance.
As social science engineers, we endeavour to be a compelling voice and the source of insight for leaders around the world.
We invite you to be a part of LKYSPP’s Sputnik moment. Join us in shaping governance for the future of Asia, as we approach the greatest disruptive periods of our lifetime.
The school carries its multidisciplinary focus across four research centres that study and address a wide range of public policy challenges in depth. • Asia Competitiveness Institute (ACI) • Centre on Asia and Globalisation (CAG) • Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) • Institute of Water Policy (IWP)
The four research centres deliver impactful research to inform and influence public policymaking in Singapore and Asia through regular publication in journals, books, opinion editorials and international conferences. LKYSPP is committed to equip current and future generations of policymakers and leaders with innovative state-of-the-art policymaking tools. We aim to optimise our resources through successful advancement in our research, teaching innovations, and student scholarships.
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7 Beattie, A. (2020, January 22). US-China trade war gives way to a precarious peace. Financial Times. Retrieved 2020, January 28 from https://www.ft.com/content/cb270228-151e-11ea-b8690971bffac109
16 China aims to be a leader in AI by 2030. (2018, November 29). Becoming Human: Artificial Intelligence Magazine. Retrieved 2019, May 15 from https://becominghuman.ai/china-aims-to-be-a-leader-in-aiby-2030-ec5382329034/
8 Lee, K. F. (2018, September 18). Commentary: Unfortunately, Artificial Intelligence can do that job better. Channel News Asia. Retrieved 2019, May 13 from https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/commentary/ artificial-intelligence-jobs-impact-countries-developingchina-10730542
17 Stone, P., Brooks, R., Brynjolfsson, E., Calo, R., Etzioni, O., Hager, G., … Teller, A. (2016, September) Artificial Intelligence and life in 2030. One Hundred Year Study on Artificial Intelligence: Report of the 2015-2016. Retrieved 2019, May 14 from https://ai100.stanford.edu/2016-report
9 Anderson, J., Rainie, L., Luchsinger, A. (2018, December 10). Artificial Intelligence and the future of humans. Pew Research Center. Retrieved 2019, June 11 from https://www.pewresearch.org/internet/2018/12/10/artificialintelligence-and-the-future-of-humans/
18 Eggers, W. D., Macmillan, P. (2018, July 11). Gov2020: a journey into the future of government. Deloitte. Retrieved 2019, May 14 from http://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/au/ Documents/public-sector/deloitte-au-ps-gov2020-journeyfuture-government1-130315.pdf/
19 Cann, O. (2017, September 2017). What exactly is economic competitiveness? World Economic Forum. Retrieved 2019, June 13 from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/09/what-iseconomic-competitiveness/
28 Desjardins, J. (2019, March 26). Investing megatrend: how rapid urbanisation is shaping the future. Visual Capitalist. Retrieved 2019, May 13 from https://www.visualcapitalist.com/investing-megatrendrapid-urbanisation/
20 Dieleman, J. L., Templin, T., Sadat, N., Reidy, P., Chapin, A., Foreman, K., … Kurowski, C. (2016, April 13). National spending on health by source for 184 countries between 2013 and 2040. The Lancet. Retrieved 2019, June 11 from https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/ PIIS0140-6736(16)30167-2/fulltext
29 Fragkias, M., Güneralp, B., Seto, K. C., Goodness, J. (2013, September 5). A synthesis of global urbanization projections. In Elmqvist, T., Fragkias, M., Goodness, J., Güneralp, B., Marcotullio, P. J., McDonald, R. I., … Wilkinson, C. (Eds.), Urbanization, biodiversity and ecosystem services: Challenges and opportunities (pp. 409-435). Retrieved 2019, June 12 from https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-94-007-7088-1_21
21 Fidler, D. P. (2010, May). The challenges of global health governance. Council on Foreign Relations: International Institutions and Global Governance Program. Retrieved 2019, June 11 from https://www.researchgate.net/publication/265273284_ The_Challenges_of_Global_Health_Governance 22 Heng, J. (2018, October 18). Singapore ranks 2nd in updated Global Competitiveness Index. Business Times. Retrieved 2019, June 13 from https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/government-economy/ singapore-ranks-2nd-in-updated-global-competitivenessindex 23 Social welfare: are we missing the point? (2018, August 1). Global is Asian. Retrieved 2019, May 13 from http://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/gia/article/social-welfare-are-wemissing-the-point/ 24 Ramesh, M., Bali, A. S. (n.d.). The healthcare system in Singapore. Global is Asian. Retrieved 2019, June 11 from https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/docs/default-source/giadocuments/the-healthcare-system-in-singapore-withgraphics.pdf?sfvrsn=f0446c0a_2 25 The 3 factors that make Singapore’s health system the envy of the West. (2018, August 2). Global is Asian. Retrieved 2019, June 11 from https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/gia/article/the-3-factors-thatmake-singapore-s-health-system-the-envy-of-the-west 26 World Population Ageing 2015 Highlights. (2015). United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division. Retrieved 2020, April 6 from https://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/ publications/pdf/ageing/WPA2015_Report.pdf 27 Yap, J., Yong, C. C., Ng, Z. H., Fernandaz, H. P., Ong, S. J. (2015). Healthcare in 2065. Deloitte. Retrieved 2019, May 14 from https://www2.deloitte.com/content/dam/Deloitte/sg/ Documents/risk/sg-risk-healthcare-2065-noexp.pdf
30 Migration and its impact on cities (2017, October). World Economic Forum. Retrieved 2019, June 12 from http://www3.weforum.org/docs/Migration_Impact_Cities_ report_2017_low.pdf 31 Urbanization and sustainable development in Asia and the Pacific: linkages and policy implications. (2017, May). United Nations Economic and Social Council. Retrieved 2019, June 12 from https://www.unescap.org/commission/73/document/ E73_16E.pdf 32 Singapore’s success in urban planning: Learning from father of city planning Dr Liu Thai Ker. (2017, August 30). Global is Asian. Retrieved 2019, June 12 from https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/gia/article/singapore-s-successin-urban-planning-learning-from-father-of-city-planning-drliu-thai-ker 33 Urban solutions & sustainability. Economic Development Board. Retrieved 2019, June 12 from https://www.edb.gov.sg/en/our-industries/urban-solutionsand-sustainability.html 34 Garfield, L. (2018, July 11). These will be the world’s biggest cities in 2030. Business Insider. Retrieved 2019, May 14 from https://www.businessinsider.sg/biggest-cities-by-20302018-7?r=US&IR=T/ 35 Around 2.5 billion more people will be living in cities by 2050, projects new UN report. (2018, May 16). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Retrieved 2019, May 14 from https://www.un.org/development/desa/en/news/ population/2018-world-urbanization-prospects.html/ 36 Samman, E., Lucci, P., Hagen-Zanker, J., Bhatkal, T., Simunovic, A. T., Nicolai, S., … Caron, C. (2018, September). SDG progress: fragility, crisis and leaving no one behind. Overseas Development Institute. Retrieved 2019, May 14 from http://www.odi.org/sites/odi.org.uk/files/resourcedocuments/12424.pdf/
LKYSPP Advancement & Development Office 469C Bukit Timah Road, Oei Tiong Ham Building, Singapore 259772 Email: emily.ng@nus.edu.sg DID: +65 6601 5229 Website: lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/give
The content of this booklet is accurate at the time of publication.