Future of Talent Conference
Managing the future workforce Peter Cheese – CEO, CIPD
London July 10th
We live in interesting times!
• “we have moved from the industrial age, through the information age, to the age of talent” •
Thomas Friedman, ‘The World is Flat’ 2005
A new set of ‘norms’ Economy
Increasingly
More volatile and less predictable
Value
Increasingly
Continued shift toward Intangibles
Work
Increasingly
Networked, Collaborative, Flexible
Workplace
Increasingly
Formal Organization and Informal Social System Structures
Workforce
Increasingly
More diverse, more demanding
Phase 2 of the ‘war for talent’ Talent and skills shortage ranked 2nd as business risk, up from 22nd in 2009 (Lloyds Risk Index)
Countries Projected to have Maximum Workforce Shortages (2020)
Talent seen as nbr 1 issue for CEOs (PwC annual CEO review 2012), and nbr 1 risk (WEF 2013) 43% of businesses reporting moderate skills shortage, with 13% acute shortage(CIPD 2013) 2.3m more managerial, technical, professional roles by 2022 But….skills mismatches – eg LGA predicts that by 2022 there will be 9.2m low-skilled people chasing 3.7m low-skilled jobs – a surplus of 5.5m workers. Sources: UN, OECD, UKCES, CIPD, Accenture Research
What will be the future workforce? • More diverse, more demanding
• Working more flexibly, in many different ways • More entrepreneurs, more knowledge workers, more service workers • More specialists • Working more in SMEs
• More jobs and more career changes • Older and will work longer but with less security • Will need to upskill and reskill more • In a more VUCA world
What will be the core skills for the future (OECD view) • The great collaborators and orchestrators – coordinating and managing • The great synthesisers – pulling together different things • The great explainers – filtering and explaining content • The great versatilists – adapting and developing specialist skills • The great personalisers – team builders • The great localisers – localising the global • + IQ, EQ, TQ, CQ
Must understand and address UK productivity gap Context: UK and global GDP per head UK
World
30,000 25,000
$ 1990
20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000
1913 1916 1919 1922 1925 1928 1931 1934 1937 1940 1943 1946 1949 1952 1955 1958 1961 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2009
0
Source: Bolt, J. and J. L. van Zanden (2013). The First Update of the Maddison Project; Re-Estimating Growth Before 1820. Maddison Project Working Paper 4.
Systemic shift and challenge of youth unemployment Demographic change: Illustrative projections of change in employment by age group from 2012 baseline, thousands 2022
2032 1,956 1,387
1,235 770
186
-305 -677 15-24
-94
25-49
50-64
65+
Sources: CIPD calculations based on ONS 2012 Principal population projections and revised mid-year estimates for 2002 and 2007 , employment rates for May-Jul 2002 and 2012 based on the Labour Force Survey and CIPD assumptions for employment rates for 2017 onwards.
UK has worst ratio of youth to prime age employment in Europe
Response needed from macro to micro
Industrial Strategy Employment Policy Education and learning
Organisational Strategy Workforce planning Strategic partnering
Leadership & management
TM practices HR capabilities
• Will require more joined up thinking from national policy to individual businesses • Tri-partite – Government, business, education and representative bodies • HR has a critical role to play and must step up
Working with education – building the skills for the future
• Employability skills • Routes in to work • Skills investment and lifelong learning
• Improving careers IAG • Promoting apprenticeships and VE • Volunteering • Increasing employer skills investment • Incentives and funding • Partnering for lifelong learning • National, regional and local
Need to invest in and improve People Management and development practices
• Source
•Train
• Attract
•Develop
• Select
•Reward
• Orient
Welcome to XYZ Corp Orientation begins here
•Move through the Organization
Where are your biggest challenges today? Where will they be tomorrow?
Requires different thinking
Skills building Recruitment strategies
Rightsourcing
Skills retention
Strategies to address skills shortfalls
Job Design
Creating agile learning organizations
Continuous, adaptive and collaborative learning
Scope of learning
Collaborative learning
Learning to adapt Learning to solve problems
Learning at point of need
Embedded learning Reinforcing existing skills Core training programs
Learning a new skill
On-line help and support services
Organizational reach and value
Focus of traditional corporate learning
High
Low Agility and Adaptability
HR a key enabler, but developing managers is critical
In conclusion…. Change and opportunity • Better more inclusive workplaces, more democratic, more socially responsible • Better leadership and management at all levels • More agility – reskilling, redeploying, upskilling • More diverse TM practices to manage a more diverse workforce • Working more with education at all levels • Improving productivity and job opportunities for all