Seminars & Conferences no 10 - The Perception and Management of Risk

Page 1

CMYK

The Perception and Management of Risk

COORDINATION Stéphane LAGRÉE French School of Asian Studies, ÉFEO fsp2s@yahoo.fr Virginie DIAZ Research Department, AFD diazv@afd.fr

/ July 2014 /

This work contains a verbatim account of the presentations and debates from the plenary sessions and workshops that took place from 19th to 27th July 2013 at the University of Đà Lạt on the topic of “The Perception and Management of Risk“. Four main areas of reflection are prioritised in the framework of the thematic workshops: From Crisis to the Reduction of Disaster Risk: The Case of Flooding; Financial and Economic Risk; Impact Evaluation: Methods and Application with a Thematic Focus on Microfinance; Understanding Past Crises in Order to Manage Better the Present: Initiation to the Geo-historical Modelling of Risks (the 1926 Red River Swelling).

10 July 2014

The Perception and Management of Risk Applied Methodological Approaches to Development

Regional Social Sciences Summer University “Tam Đảo Summer School Week” (Đà Lạt, Việt Nam) July 2013

Conférences & Séminaires

The Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS), Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), University of Nantes, École française d’Extrême-Orient (ÉFEO) and Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie (AUF) have decided to give their support to the Regional Social Sciences Summer University, referred to as “Tam Đảo Days”, in the framework of the 2010-2013 partnership agreement. This partnership has the objectives of developing a multidisciplinary training of excellence, creating a platform for debate, and attracting a wide academic and non-academic audience from across Southeast Asia.

The Perception and Management of Risk

Applied Methodological Approaches to Development

!"#$%&'($)*!$(+,$("-.

CMYK

The Perception and Management of Risk Applied Methodological Approaches to Development SCIENTIFIC EDITOR Stéphane LAGRÉE

French School of Asian Studies, ÉFEO fsp2s@yahoo.fr COORDINATION

Virginie DIAZ

Research Department, AFD diazv@afd.fr

ConfÊrences et sÊminaires AFD’s Research Department organises a large number of seminars and conferences which provide a forum for exchanges of knowledge and experience between development aid actors: researchers, experts, political leaders, NGOs, companies... These events may address any of AFD’s fields of operation. The ConfÊrences et sÊminaires collection aims to provide readers concerned by these issues with the main outcomes and lessons-learned from this research.

In the same collection: t /ÂĄ L’Êvaluation en ĂŠvolution - Pratiques et enjeux de l’Êvaluation dans le contexte de l’efficacitĂŠ du dĂŠveloppement t /ÂĄ Water and its Many Issues – Methods and Cross-cutting Analysis t /ÂĄ Quartiers informels d’un monde arabe en transition : rĂŠflexions et perspectives pour l’action urbaine t /ÂĄ L’Êconomie informelle dans les pays en dĂŠveloppement t /ÂĄ Evaluation and its Discontents: Do We Learn from Experience in Development? t /ÂĄ Social Differentiation and Inequalities – Methodological and Cross-cutting Approaches to Questions of Gender and Ethnicity t /ÂĄ Measure for Measure - How Well Do We Measure Development? – Proceedings of UIF th "'% &6%/ $POGFSFODF t /ÂĄ Transitions Decreed, Transitions Experienced – Regional social sciences summer university “Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Weekâ€? t /ÂĄ Implementing Large-Scale Energy Efficiency Programs in Existing Buildings in China – Conference in Wuhan (China) All our publications are available at http://recherche.afd.fr

[ Disclaimer ] The analyses and conclusions presented in this document are the responsibility of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of AFD or its partner institutions.

1VCMJDBUJPOT %JSFDUPS

Anne PAUGAM &EJUPSJBM %JSFDUPS

Alain HENRY %FTJHOFE CZ 'FSSBSJ $PSQPSBUF o 5FM 1SPEVDFE CZ 5PNPSSPX .FEJB $P -UE o &NBJM UPNPSSPXNFEJB!HNBJM DPN 1SJOUFE JO 7JĚ?U /BN CZ 5PNPSSPX .FEJB $P -UE

Table of Contents

'PSFXPSE "DLOPXMFEHFNFOUT 0QFOJOH 3FNBSLT

t 7Ü ,IÈOI 7JOI %JSFDUPS PG UIF 5SBJOJOH *OTUJUVUF 7JDF 1SFTJEFOU PG 7"44 t +FBO /PÑM 1PJSJFS 'SFODI "NCBTTBEPS JO 7J̏U /BN t +FBO .BSD (SBWFMMJOJ %JSFDUPS "'% 7J̏U /BN t 0MJWJFS 5FTTJFS 3FQSFTFOUBUJWF PG ²'&0 JO 7J̏U /BN t +FBO 1BTDBM 5PSSÏUPO 3FQSFTFOUBUJWF PG *3% JO 7J̏U /BN t :WFT 1FSSBVEFBV 6OJWFSTJUZ 1SPGFTTPS )FBE PG 7J̏U /BN BOE 4PVUIFBTU̓"TJB̓.JTTJPO 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT t $MBVEF &NNBOVFM -FSPZ 1SJODJQBM 1SPKFDU .BOBHFS "6'

1BSU 1MFOBSZ 4FTTJPOT 4PDJBM $POTUSVDUJPOT PG̓%BOHFS " 'FX 6TFT PG UIF /PUJPO PG 3JTL BOE .JTGPSUVOF JO UIF 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT 7BOFTTB .BODFSPO /BUVSBMMZ 0DDVSSJOH %JTBTUFST $PODFQUT $POTFRVFODFT 4PDJFUZ T 3FTQPOTF 8IFO 'BDFE 8JUI 5IFTF $SJTFT :WFT -F #BST 1IZTJDBM $IBSBDUFSJTUJDT 1PQVMBUJPO -PHJDT BOE %FWFMPQNFOU PG 4QBDF )PX̓7VMOFSBCMF BSF 4PVUIFBTU "TJBO 4PDJFUJFT UP /BUVSBM BOE̓$MJNBUJD )B[BSET +FBO 1IJMJQQF 'POUFOFMMF 4ZTUFNJD 3JTL BOE UIF 4VCQSJNF $SJTJT 4ZNQUPNT BOE .FDIBOJTNT PG 1SPQBHBUJPO "ESJBO 101 %FBMJOH 8JUI 'PPE 1SJDF *OTUBCJMJUZ *O %FWFMPQJOH $PVOUSJFT #SVOP 7JOEFM .PEFMMJOH BOE 1BSUJDJQBUPSZ 4JNVMBUJPO GPS 3JTL .BOBHFNFOU JO "OJNBM &QJEFNJPMPHZ 3BQIBÑM %VCP[ " 4ZOUIFTJT PG UIF 1MFOBSZ 4FTTJPOT 3JTL .BOBHFNFOU #FMJFGT BOE .FUIPET "MBJO̓)FOSZ

1BSU 8PSLTIPQT

'SPN $SJTJT UP UIF 3FEVDUJPO PG %JTBTUFS 3JTL 5IF $BTF PG 'MPPEJOH 4UÏQIBOF $BSUJFS +FBO 1IJMJQQF 'POUFOFMMF :WFT -F #BST 'JOBODJBM BOE &DPOPNJD 3JTLT 4PQIJF 1BSEP 1I˼N 5Ȋ )̕OH )˼OI "ESJBO 1PQ :WFT 1FSSBVEFBV 5IPNBT 7BMMÏF *NQBDU &WBMVBUJPO .FUIPET BOE "QQMJDBUJPO XJUI B 5IFNBUJD 'PDVT PO .JDSPöOBODF 'MPSFOU #ÏEÏDBSSBUT "YFM %FNFOFU $ISJTUPQIF +BMJM /PSENBO -BVSF 1BTRVJFS %PVNFS 'SBOÎPJT 3PVCBVE 1IVOH %VD 5VOH #FSUSBOE 4BWPZF 6OEFSTUBOEJOH 1BTU $SJTFT UP .BOBHF CFUUFS UIF 1SFTFOU *OJUJBUJPO UP (FP IJTUPSJDBM 3JTL .PEFMMJOH 5IF 3FE 3JWFS 4XFMMJOH "MFYJT %SPHPVM #FOPJU (BVEPV /BTTFS (BTNJ "SOBVE (SJHOBSE 1BUSJDL 5BJMMBOEJFS 0MJWJFS 5FTTJFS 7Ü å̠D ¬O

#JPHSBQIJFT PG 4QFBLFST "DSPOZNT BOE "CCSFWJBUJPOT

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[

]

Foreword

&BDI ZFBS TJODF UIF 5BN å˽P 4VNNFS 4DIPPM JO 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT +5% IBT PòFSFE USBJOJOH JO UIF BOBMZTJT NFUIPEPMPHJFT PG TPDJBM TDJFODFT o HFPHSBQIZ FDPOPNJDT TUBUJTUJDT TPDJP BOUISPQPMPHZ IJTUPSZ FUD o UP BSPVOE POF IVOESFE 7JFUOBNFTF QBSUJDJQBOUT TUVEFOUT UFBDIFST DJWJM TFSWBOUT EFWFMPQNFOU QMBZFST 5IF USBJOJOH UBLFT QMBDF CPUI JO )Ë /̘J BOE JO SFTJEFODF BU 5BN å˽P B IJMM TUBUJPO DMPTF UP UIF DBQJUBM 2010-2013: A Change on the Regional Scale 'PMMPXJOH UIF TVDDFTT PG UIF öSTU FEJUJPOT BOE JO PSEFS UP TVQQPSU UIF TVNNFS TDIPPM T EFWFMPQNFOU UIF 7J̏U /BN "DBEFNZ PG 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT 7"44 Agence Française de Développement "'% Institut de Recherche pour le Développement *3% 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT École Française d’Extrême-Orient ²'&0 BOE Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie (AUF) < > EFDJEFE UP DPOöSN UIFJS KPJOU DPNNJUNFOU XJUIJO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG B GPVS ZFBS QBSUOFSTIJQ̓BHSFFNFOU TJHOFE PO th "QSJM BU UIF "'% IFBERVBSUFST JO 1BSJT 5IJT SFHJPOBM QSPKFDU XIJDI CVJMET VQPO UIF FYQFSJFODF BDRVJSFE EVSJOH UIF öSTU UISFF ZFBST TFUT PVU OFX BNCJUJPOT " TQFDJöD UIFNF QSFTFOUJOH B DIBSBDUFSJTUJD PG B SFHJPOBM PS JOUFSOBUJPOBM DIBMMFOHF JT DIPTFO FBDI ZFBS BOE JT UIFO CSPLFO EPXO BOE EFCBUFE VTJOH EJòFSFOU NFUIPEPMPHJDBM BOE crosscutting approaches; "U 7"44 UIF öSTU UXP EBZT PG USBJOJOH BOE FYDIBOHFT BSF DPODMVEFE CZ B XSBQ VQ TFTTJPO UIBU allows us to approach our debate from an interdisciplinary angle; "U 5BN å˽P JO PSEFS UP QSFTFSWF B TUSPOH HSPVQ EZOBNJD BOE B CSPBE BOE SFMFWBOU BDBEFNJD BQQSPBDI UIF USBJOFFT BSF EJWJEFE BNPOH GPVS UIFNFE XPSLTIPQT MBTUJOH öWF EBZT "U UIF FOE PG UIFTF XPSLTIPQT USBJOFFT BOE USBJOFST HFU UPHFUIFS GPS B EBZ UP QSFTFOU UIF DPODMVTJPOT PG the analytical work of each workshop; *O PSEFS UP FYUFOE JUT HFPHSBQIJDBM JOøVFODF UIF +5% SFDFJWFT USBJOFFT GSPN UIF 4PVUIFBTU "TJB SFHJPO 5IJT SFHJPOBM FYQBOTJPO SFJOGPSDFT UIF SFQVUBUJPO BOE WJTJCJMJUZ PG UIF TDIPPM JO UIF SFHJPO BOE BMMPXT JU UP XJEFO JUT OFUXPSL PG TDJFOUJöD FYDIBOHFT BOE DPMMBCPSBUJPO

< > Within the framework of an annual bipartite convention with VASS.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[

]

2013: Opening Up Towards the South of Việt Nam and the Labelling “France-Việt Nam Exchange Year” 5IF DIBOHF PG WFOVF PG UIF +5% UP UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG åË -˼U BJNT BU PQFOJOH VQ UIF USBJOJOH UP B QBOFM PG USBJOFFT XJUI WBSZJOH QSPöMFT XIJMF CSPBEFOJOH DPMMBCPSBUJPO XJUI UIF JOTUJUVUJPOT PG $FOUSBM BOE 4PVUI 7J̏U /BN In fine BO BMUFSOBUJPO CFUXFFO UIF 5BN å˽P BOE åË -˼U IJMM TUBUJPOT XJMM FTUBCMJTI B KVTU HFPHSBQIJDBM CBMBODF 5IF MBCFMMJOH PG UIF +5% XJUIJO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG UIF 'SBODF 7J̏U /BN FYDIBOHF ZFBS HJWFT GPS JUT QBSU OFX JNQFUVT UP B TDJFOUJöD BOE FEVDBUJPOBM TZTUFN XIJMF BU UIF TBNF UJNF FNQIBTJTJOH JUT SFQVUBUJPO GPS FYDFMMFODF An Annual Scientific Publication 4JODF JUT DPODFQUJPO UIF +5% IBT CFFO DPNNJUUFE UP QVCMJTIJOH JO UIF TBNF ZFBS UIF DPNQMFUF USBOTDSJQUT PG UIF USBJOJOH EBZT 5IF +5% IBT CFFO QVCMJTIFE JO UISFF MBOHVBHFT 7JFUOBNFTF 'SFODI BOE &OHMJTI TJODF 5IFTF QVCMJDBUJPOT GPSN QBSU PG "'% T Conférences et Séminaires DPMMFDUJPO XIJDI JT DPFEJUFE CZ ²'&0 BOE 5SJ 5I̠D 5IF XPSLT BSF EPXOMPBEBCMF GSFF PG DIBSHF PO UIF TJUFT PG "'% UIF +5% XXX UBNEBPDPOG DPN BOE PG PUIFS BTTPDJBUFE QBSUOFST 5IF QVCMJDBUJPO JT DPNQPTFE PG USBOTDSJQUT PG UIF QMFOBSZ TFTTJPOT PG UIF GPVS UIFNFE XPSLTIPQT BOE the concluding seminar. The list of trainees is included in the publication in order to encourage TDJFOUJöD OFUXPSLJOH JU BMTP JODMVEFT UIF CJPHSBQIZ PG FBDI USBJOFS 'JOBMMZ UIF SFBEJOH UFYUT BSF proposed in order to complete and elaborate the themes and disciplinary fields dealt with.

“The Perception and Management of Risk. Applied Methodological Approaches to Development” 5IF HVJEJOH QSJODJQMF PG UIF +5% XBT UP FYBNJOF UIF JTTVF PG SJTL BOE IPX JU JT QFSDFJWFE BOE NBOBHFE UISPVHI UIF QSJTN PG FDPOPNJD TPDJBM BOE IVNBO TDJFODFT JO EJòFSFOU NJMJFVT BOE PO EJòFSFOU TDBMFT PG JOUFSQSFUBUJPO GPMMPXJOH UIF MPHJDBM GSBNFXPSL UIJT TFWFOUI FEJUJPO XBT PSHBOJTFE BDDPSEJOH UP UXP DPNQMFNFOUBSZ BYFT ¦ 5SBJOJOH JO UXP QMFOBSZ TFTTJPOT PO th BOE th +VMZ 4JY QSFTFOUBUJPOT JOUSPEVDFE BOE EFWFMPQFE GSPN B NFUIPEPMPHJDBM BOE NVMUJEJTJQMJOBSZ BOHMF JTTVFT SFMBUFE UP UIF QFSDFQUJPO BOE NBOBHFNFOU PG SJTLT NPEFMMJOH FDPOPNJD HFPHSBQIJDBM QPMJUJDBM BOE FUIOPMPHJDBM approaches; the plenary sessions were concluded by a summing up of what had been said over the two days; ¦ 'PVS öWF EBZ UIFNFE XPSLTIPQT GSPN .POEBZ nd +VMZ UP 'SJEBZ th +VMZ )FSF JTTVFT DPODFSOJOH DSJTJT BOE UIF SFEVDUJPO PG EJTBTUFS SJTL XFSF BEESFTTFE XJUI UIF FYBNQMF PG øPPEJOH 8PSLTIPQ ö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

[

] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

QFSDFQUJPO PG EBOHFS JT DVMUVSBMMZ EFUFSNJOFE BOE BOBMZTF UIF TPDJBM JOFRVBMJUJFT BOE JOKVTUJDFT UIBU BSF SFWFBMFE PS DSZTUBMMJTFE CZ SJTL PS UIFZ EFTDSJCF UIF XBZ TPDJFUZ SFTQPOET BOE UIF TZTUFNT PG NJTGPSUVOF NBOBHFNFOU JNQMFNFOUFE PODF UIF DSJTJT IBT CFFO JEFOUJöFE PS UIF FWFOU UBLFO QMBDF BT JO UIF DBTF PG EJTBTUFST #Z FYBNJOJOH EJòFSFOU SFTFBSDI 7BOFTTB .BODFSPO shows how social sciences make a useful contribution to throwing light upon contemporary JTTVFT MJOLFE UP SJTLT BOE UIJT JT EPOF XJUI SFHBSE UP TPDJBM DPOUFYUT BOE UIF UZQF PG EBOHFS JO RVFTUJPO 5IF DBTF PG BWJBO øV JO 'SBODF UIF %PNCFT SFHJPO JO JT HJWFO BT BO FYBNQMF CZ GPDVTJOH BUUFOUJPO PO UIF EJòFSFOU TPDJBM QFSDFQUJPOT BOE SFBDUJPOT UP UIF FWFOU XJUIJO VSCBO and rural social groups. "U UIF CFHJOOJOH PG UIF BGUFSOPPO XF UVSOFE PVS BUUFOUJPO UP UIF QSFTFOUBUJPO CZ :WFT̓-F̓#BST the former President of Groupe de Recherches et d’Échanges Technologiques (3&5 BO JOUFSOBUJPOBM̓ 'SFODI TPMJEBSJUZ OPO HPWFSONFOUBM PSHBOJTBUJPO /(0 SFHBSEJOH OBUVSBM EJTBTUFST DPODFQUT TUBLFT BOE TPDJBM SFTQPOTFT JO UIF GBDF PG DSJTFT 'PS :WFT -F #BST UIF SFEVDUJPO PG EJTBTUFS SJTLT DBO POMZ CF NBEF QPTTJCMF CZ B DMFBS VOEFSTUBOEJOH PG IPX UIFZ BSJTF UIFZ BSF UIF DPNCJOBUJPO PG B OBUVSBM IB[BSE BOE UIF WVMOFSBCJMJUZ SFTVMUJOH GSPN FYQPTVSF UP critical phenomena. Clarifying concepts is thus necessary if we are to understand the cycle that CFHJOT XJUI UIF EJTBTUFS BOE MFBET UP QSFWFOUJPO BOE QSFQBSBUJPO GPS DSJTJT BOE UIVT EJTUJOHVJTI UIF NPTU SFMFWBOU NPNFOUT TDBMFT BOE GPSNT PG BDUJPO :WFT -F #BST UIVT RVFTUJPOT UIF EFDJTJPO making process in order to allow us to associate public authority decisions with available FYQFSUJTF BOE XJUI UIF NPCJMJTBUJPO BOE UIF DPSSFDU CFIBWJPVS PG JOIBCJUBOUT $POUJOVJOH JO UIF TBNF WFJO BT UIF TFDPOE QSFTFOUBUJPO +FBO 1IJMJQQF 'POUFOFMMF BO BHSPOPNJTU DIBOHFE MPDBUJPO UP 4PVUIFBTU "TJB BOE SBJTFE UIF RVFTUJPO PG UIF WVMOFSBCJMJUZ PG TPDJFUJFT JO UIF GBDF PG OBUVSBM BOE DMJNBUJD IB[BSET "TJB JO HFOFSBM BOE 4PVUIFBTU "TJB JO QBSUJDVMBS öOE UIFNTFMWFT JO B QBSBEPYJDBM TJUVBUJPO BT UIFZ BSF TVCKFDU UP NVMUJQMF OBUVSBM BOE DMJNBUJD IB[BSET XIJDI BSF QPUFOUJBMMZ WFSZ WJPMFOU XIJMF BU UIF TBNF UJNF CFJOH EFOTFMZ QPQVMBUFE BOE IBWJOH WFSZ IJHI MFWFMT PG FDPOPNJD EFWFMPQNFOU PO FYQPTFE MBOET UIBU BSF QPUFOUJBMMZ EBOHFSPVT such as the deltas. This can be particularly grasped by the analysis of the infrastructures and institutions developed by societies in the deltas in order to reduce their vulnerability. The diversity PG UIF TZTUFNT PG EFWFMPQNFOU XIJDI WBSZ BDDPSEJOH UP UIF EFMUBT OPOFUIFMFTT TIPXT UIBU UIF SFMBUJPOTIJQ CFUXFFO TPDJFUJFT BOE UIF IB[BSE JT DPNQMFY BOE BMTP EFQFOET PO UIF QFSDFQUJPOT BOE BDDFQUBODF UIBU TPDJFUJFT IBWF PG UIF SJTL JOWPMWFE 6SCBO HSPXUI UIF FOSJDINFOU PG UIF QPQVMBUJPO BOE UIF IFBWZ DPODFOUSBUJPO PG öOBODJBM BOE UFDIOPMPHJDBM SFTPVSDFT JO GSBHJMF BSFBT SBJTF RVFTUJPOT BCPVU UIF QPTTJCMF FWPMVUJPO JO UIF EFHSFF PG NBTUFSZ BOE BDDFQUBCJMJUZ PG SJTLT JO BO VODFSUBJO DPOUFYU XIJDI JT TVCKFDU UP DMJNBUF DIBOHF 5IF TFDPOE EBZ CFHBO XJUI B MFDUVSF CZ "ESJBO 1PQ BO FDPOPNJTU BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT PO UIF UIFNF PG UIF TZTUFNJD SJTLT PG UIF öOBODJBM DSJTJT PG UIF TVNNFS PG 5IF PCKFDUJWF JT UP FWPLF UIF USJHHFST TZNQUPNT BOE PSJHJOBMJUZ PG UIF TVC QSJNFT DSJTJT UP EFTDSJCF JUT DBVTFT BOE QSPQBHBUJPO NFDIBOJTNT UP FYQMBJO UIF SPMF PG UIF iTFDVSJUJTBUJPO PG NPSUHBHFTw BOE UIF iWJSBMw BTQFDU PG UIF DSJTJT öOBODJBM DPOUBHJPO BOE UP VOEFSTUBOE UIF EJòFSFOU GBDFUT PG TZTUFNJD risk. This crisis shook our confidence in financial systems on a planetary scale and had harmful

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[

]

FรฒFDUT PO SFBM FDPOPNJFT "DDPSEJOH UP *OUFSOBUJPOBM .POFUBSZ 'VOE *.' FTUJNBUFT BCPVU POF รถGUI PG UIF XPSME T (SPTT /BUJPOBM 1SPEVDU (/1 MJUFSBMMZ FWBQPSBUFE CFDBVTF PG UIF DSJTJT XIJDI XBT UIF NPTU TFWFSF TJODF UIF HSFBU EFQSFTTJPO PG UIF T (SPXUI GPSFDBTUT JO NPTU countries have been regularly downwardly revised and there has been a considerable increase in SFDFTTJWF GBDUPST PWFS UIF MBTU GFX ZFBST .BTTJWF HPWFSONFOU JOUFSWFOUJPOT JO รถOBODJBM TZTUFNT BT XFMM BT OVNFSPVT SFDPWFSZ BOE SFTDVF QMBOT BSF BMTP QFSDFQUJCMF JO OBUJPOBM CVEHFUT 1VCMJD EFรถDJUT IBWF HSBEVBMMZ JODSFBTFE JO NPTU DPVOUSJFT BOE IBWF FYBDFSCBUFE UIF QSPCMFNT MJOLFE UP UIF VOTVTUBJOBCJMJUZ PG EFCU o (SFFDF BOE NPSF SFDFOUMZ $ZQSVT BSF FYUSFNF FYBNQMFT PG UIJT 'JOBMMZ BDDPSEJOH UP UIF *OUFSOBUJPOBM -BCPVS 0รณDF *-0 UIF DVSSFOU รถOBODJBM DSJTJT JT SFTQPOTJCMF GPS UIF JODSFBTF JO UIF OVNCFS PG VOFNQMPZFE XIJDI SPTF GSPN NJMMJPO JO UP NPSF UIBO NJMMJPO JO 5IF TQFDUBDVMBS SJTF JO VOFNQMPZNFOU CPUI JO EFWFMPQFE BOE EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT JT MJLFMZ UP FYBDFSCBUF TPDJBM VOSFTU XIJDI JO UVSO DPVME SFJOGPSDF UIF OFHBUJWF FรฒFDUT of the crisis on real economies. #SVOP 7JOEFM T QSFTFOUBUJPO o "'% 1BSJT o BMTP IBT BO FDPOPNJD UIFNF BOE FYBNJOFT GPPE price instability in developing countries. Although he identifies four โ pure strategiesโ that can be VTFE UP NBOBHF GPPE QSJDF JOTUBCJMJUZ IF TIPXT UIF MJNJUT PG USBEJUJPOBM TPMVUJPOT CBTFE VQPO combinations of risk management strategies (by insurance instruments) and crisis management CZ FNFSHFODZ BJE .PSF TUSVDUVSBM TPMVUJPOT BSF OFDFTTBSZ UIFTF JNQMZ HSFBUFS TUBUF involvement in order to stimulate the modernisation of production and agricultural markets and to recapitalise vulnerable households. This can only be done by creating easier access to agricultural inputs and by transferring resources to those most in need. Public intervention is OFDFTTBSZ UP QSFWFOU QSJDFT GSPN SFBDIJOH FYUSFNF IJHIT *U NVTU CF CBTFE VQPO B DPNCJOBUJPO PG JOTUSVNFOUT BEBQUFE UP UIF TQFDJรถDT PG UIF OBUJPOBM BOE PS SFHJPOBM DPOUFYU 5IF JOUFSOBUJPOBM community also has a role to play in the success of such policies. 5IF MBTU MFDUVSF CZ 3BQIBFM %VCP[ GSPN UIF Centre International de Recherche Agronomique pour le Dรฉveloppement $*3"% JT PO UIF TVCKFDU PG NPEFMMJOH BOE QBSUJDJQBUJWF TJNVMBUJPO GPS UIF NBOBHFNFOU PG BOJNBM FQJEFNJPMPHZ SJTLT o BOE FDIPFT B QSFTFOUBUJPO JO UIF +5% DPODFSOJOH BHFOU CBTFE NPEFMMJOH )JT BOBMZTJT JOWPMWFT UIF DBTF PG BOJNBM IFBMUI SJTLT BU B MPDBM MFWFM JO UIF QSPWJODF PG 4VLIPUBJ 5IBJMBOE 5IF SFTFBSDI UIFNF JT UP CFUUFS VOEFSTUBOE IPX MPDBM TUBLFIPMEFST TNBMM TDBMF CSFFEFST JOEVTUSJBM CSFFEFST WFUT FUD NBOBHF FQJEFNJPMPHJDBM SJTLT 5IF QSFTFOUBUJPO GPDVTFT PO UFDIOJRVFT JNQMFNFOUFE JO B QBSUJDJQBUJWF NPEFMMJOH NFUIPE JOTQJSFE CZ DPNQBOJPO NPEFMMJOH B UFDIOJRVF EFWFMPQFE BU $*3"% GPS UIF NBOBHFNFOU PG natural resources. 'JOBMMZ "MBJO )FOSZ %JSFDUPS PG 4UVEJFT BOE 3FTFBSDI BU "'% 1BSJT XJOET VQ UIF UXP EBZT PG QSFTFOUBUJPOT BOE FYDIBOHFT XJUI B DSJUJDBM TVNNBSZ 5IF USBJOJOH DPOUJOVFE GSPN .POEBZ nd UP 'SJEBZ th +VMZ XJUIJO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG UIF UIFNFEอ XPSLTIPQT DBSSJFE PVU PO UIF DBNQVT PG UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG รฅร -หผU 5IF PCKFDUJWF PG 8PSLTIPQ i'SPN $SJTJT UP UIF 3FEVDUJPO PG %JTBTUFS 3JTL 5IF $BTF PG 'MPPEJOHw JT UP VOEFSTUBOE UIF EJรฒFSFOU EJNFOTJPOT PG UIF BOBMZTJT PG DSJTJT QIFOPNFOB *O UIF

[

] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

XPSLTIPQ XF BSF QSFTFOUFE XJUI UIF UJNF DZDMF PG DSJTJT NBOBHFNFOU UIF EJòFSFOU TUBLFIPMEFST JOWPMWFE̓BOE UIFJS JOUFSBDUJPOT BT XFMM BT UIF JTTVFT VOJRVF UP UIF QFSDFQUJPO FBDI TUBLFIPMEFS NJHIU IBWF PG UIJT UZQF PG QIFOPNFOPO PG JUT DBVTFT BOE PG UIF QPTTJCMF NFBOT PG SFEVDJOH UIF SJTL 5IF NFUIPE̓ DPNCJOFT B TPDJPMPHJDBM BQQSPBDI DFOUSFE VQPO SJTL QFSDFQUJPO BOE UIF SPMF PG UIF TUBLFIPMEFST DPODFSOFE XJUI BO JOTUJUVUJPOBM BQQSPBDI CBTFE PO UIF UJNF DZDMF PG DSJTJT NBOBHFNFOU GSPN UIF DSJTJT UP QPTU DSJTJT GFFECBDL BOE UIF FMBCPSBUJPO PG SJTL prevention policies. The educational approach favours a method of analysis and debate using case studies from work DBSSJFE PVU JO $BNCPEJB -BPT BOE 7J̏U /BN " RVFTUJPOOBJSF FWBMVBUJOH USBJOFFT LOPXMFEHF JT DBSSJFE PVU BU UIF CFHJOOJOH PG UIF XPSLTIPQ TP UIBU UIFZ DBO FYQSFTT UIFJS QFSDFQUJPO PG flooding and give their opinion about its determining factors and possible means of reducing JUT SJTLT BOE DPOTFRVFODFT 'JOBMMZ B SPMF QMBZJOH BDUJWJUZ TJNVMBUFT DSJTJT NBOBHFNFOU GPMMPXJOH øPPEJOH BOE BMMPXT B DPNNPO SFøFDUJPO BCPVU UIF QPTJUJPOT PG EJòFSFOU TUBLFIPMEFST 8PSLTIPQ CVJMET VQPO UIF QSFTFOUBUJPO JO UIF QMFOBSZ TFTTJPOT SFHBSEJOH TZTUFNJD SJTLT BOE UIF TVC QSJNFT DSJTJT 5IF USBJOJOH öSTU QSPWJEFT BO JOUSPEVDUJPO UP HFPQPMJUJDT DPOøJDU BOBMZTJT BOE öOBODJBM BOE FDPOPNJD SJTLT o DPVOUSZ SJTL /FYU UIF USBJOFFT BSF EJWJEFE JOUP TVC HSPVQT UP EFWFMPQ UIFJS PQJOJPOT BCPVU JTTVFT PG FDPOPNJD JOUFHSBUJPO B DBTF TUVEZ PG "TJBO DPVOUSJFT the challenges and opportunities of accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for the FDPOPNZ PG 7J̏U /BN TJODF 'JOBMMZ UIF MBTU TFTTJPO BJNT BU EFWFMPQJOH UIFPSFUJDBM BOE QSBDUJDBM TLJMMT JO UIF BOBMZTJT PG VODFSUBJOUZ BQQMJFE UP JOWFTUNFOU EFDJTJPOT 4PNF TQFDJöD UPPMT UIFJS QSJODJQMFT BOE IPX UIFZ BSF JNQMFNFOUFE BSF QSFTFOUFE BOE DPODSFUFMZ VTFE VODFSUBJO non-probabilistic future analysis; sensitivity analysis and the Monte Carlo simulation; analysis of BO JOWFTUNFOU QSPKFDU VTJOH Excel software. 8PSLTIPQ i*NQBDU &WBMVBUJPOT .FUIPET BOE "QQMJDBUJPOT XJUI B 5IFNBUJD 'PDVT PO .JDSPöOBODFw QSFTFOUT UIF DIBMMFOHFT PG UIF EJòFSFOU TUBHFT PG BO JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPO XIFUIFS UIFZ CF DPODFQUVBM JOTUJUVUJPOBM NFUIPEPMPHJDBM PS QSBDUJDBM 5IF USBJOFFT BSF JOJUJBUFE UP UIF TUBOEBSE NFUIPET PG JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPO UIFPSFUJDBM CBTFT MJNJUT BOE BQQMJFE QFEBHPHJDBM FYFSDJTFT GPS UIF DPODFQUJPO BOE JNQMFNFOUBUJPO PG JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPO BSF QSPQPTFE #FOFöUUJOH GSPN UIF EJWFSTJUZ PG UIF USBJOFST o SFTFBSDIFST EPOPS SFQSFTFOUBUJWFT /(0T o BOE UIFJS EJòFSFOU QPJOUT PG WJFX UIF USBJOFFT FOHBHF JO B DSJUJDBM SFøFDUJPO UP TQFDJGZ UIF BSFB PG WBMJEJUZ PG UIF EJòFSFOU BQQSPBDIFT &NQJSJDBM BQQMJDBUJPOT DPODFSO 7J̏U /BN CVU BMTP PUIFS DPVOUSJFT BOE DPOUJOFOUT CZ QSJNBSJMZ VTJOH DBTF TUVEJFT UIBU PQFO PVU UPXBSET PUIFS BSFBT XBUFS NBOBHFNFOU JOUFHSBUFE EFWFMPQNFOU JOGSBTUSVDUVSFT FUD (SPVQ XPSL JT DBSSJFE PVU PO UIF FMBCPSBUJPO PG POF PG UIF TUBHFT PG UIF JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPO PG B QSPKFDU VTJOH B SFBM DBTF JEFOUJöDBUJPO PG UIF QSPKFDU T FYQFDUFE JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPO TUSBUFHZ PS FWFO UIF JNQBDU FTUJNBUJPO VTJOH EBUB DPMMFDUFE EVSJOH UIF QSPKFDU " QSBDUJDBM BQQSPBDI UP NPEFMMJOH JT BU UIF IFBSU PG 8PSLTIPQ i6OEFSTUBOEJOH 1BTU $SJTFT UP #FUUFS .BOBHF UIF 1SFTFOU *OJUJBUJPO UP (FP )JTUPSJDBM 3JTL .PEFMMJOH PG UIF 3FE 3JWFS TXFMMJOH PG w 5IF BJN PG UIF USBJOJOH JT UP SBJTF BXBSFOFTT PG SJTL NBOBHFNFOU via a methodological BQQSPBDI CBTFE VQPO EPDVNFOUT FZF XJUOFTT SFQPSUT NBQT BOE IJTUPSJDBM IZQPUIFTFT JO PSEFS

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[

]

UP DPODFJWF SFBMJTUJD DPNQVUFS NPEFMT PG QBTU FWFOUT 5IF PCKFDUJWF JT UP BMMPX UIF USBJOFFT UP JOUFHSBUF CZ UBLJOH B IJTUPSJDBM QFSTQFDUJWF DVSSFOU FWBMVBUJPO PS SJTL NBOBHFNFOU TUSBUFHJFT DPODFSOJOH TJNJMBS FWFOUT 5IF USBJOJOH QBSUJDVMBSMZ DPODFOUSBUFT PO UIF FYQFSJNFOUBM QPTTJCJMJUJFT PòFSFE CZ UIJT BQQSPBDI 5IF MBTU UXP EBZT PG UIF XPSLTIPQ BSF EFWPUFE UP HSPVQ XPSL UIBU BJNT BU VTJOH UIF NPEFM QSFTFOUFE UP FYQMPSF EJòFSFOU JTTVFT TVSSPVOEJOH SJTL NBOBHFNFOU SFQSFTFOUBUJPO BOE FWBMVBUJPO PG BMUFSOBUJWF EFDJTJPOT FOSJDINFOU PG UIF NPEFM UP UBLF JOUP BDDPVOU TVQQMFNFOUBSZ TUBLFIPMEFST BOE EBUB FUD Principal Characteristics of the Thematic Workshops of the JTD 2013 Workshops -1From Crisis to Disaster Risk Reduction; the Case of Flooding

Scale / Level of Analysis

Disciplines

Tools / Methods

Macro, meso and micro levels

Political sciences, sociology

Case studies, comparative approach, role-play

Economics, geopolitics, finance

Case studies, Excel Quasi-experimental and experimental methods, qualitative and quantitative survey questionnaires

Agent-based models, GAMA, historical archives

-2National, regional and Economic and Financial international scales Risks -3Impact Evaluations: Methods and Applications with a Thematic Focus on Microfinance

Macro and meso scales, household surveys

Economics, socioeconomics, microfinance

-4Understanding Past Crises to Better Understand the Present: Initiation to Geo-Historical Risk Modelling

Regional scale, institutions, individuals

History, computer studies, modelling, geographical information sciences

5IF GPVS XPSLTIPQT XFSF DPODFJWFE GPS QBSUJDJQBOUT GSPN EJòFSFOU EJTDJQMJOFT UIF QSJPSJUZ CFJOH UP BMMPX FWFSZPOF UP VTF UIF NFUIPET BOE UPPMT BT PQFOMZ BT QPTTJCMF 5IJT XJTI UP FYDIBOHF JEFBT GSPN B NVMUJEJTDJQMJOBSZ BOHMF DSZTUBMMJTFE PO UIF MBTU EBZ PG GFFECBDL 4BUVSEBZ st +VMZ "T JT UIF DVTUPN BU UIF +5% BU UIF FOE PG UIF TFTTJPO FBDI USBJOFF SFDFJWFE B DFSUJÜDBUF GPS BUUFOEJOH BOE GPMMPXJOH UIF USBJOJOH TJHOFE CZ 7"44 "'% *3% ²'&0 BOE UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Profile of Trainees *O UIFSF XFSF BQQMJDBUJPOT o DPNQBSFE UP SFRVFTUT GPS UIF ZFBST &JHIUZ öWF BQQMJDBUJPOT XFSF BDDFQUFE 5IJT TFMFDUJPO XBT KVEHFE OFDFTTBSZ JO PSEFS UP QSFTFSWF B TUSPOH HSPVQ EZOBNJD BOE B SFMFWBOU QFEBHPHJDBM BQQSPBDI EVSJOH UIF XPSLTIPQT *O UPUBM BCPVU POF IVOESFE BUUFOEFE UIF QMFOBSZ TFTTJPOT BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG åË -˼U 5IF SFHJTUSBUJPO GPSNT IBOEFE JO BMMPX VT UP FTUBCMJTI UIF GPMMPXJOH QSPöMF ¦ " GFNBMF NBKPSJUZ PG USBJOFFT ¦ " ZPVOH QVCMJD CFUXFFO BOE CFUXFFO BOE CFUXFFO BOE BOE PMEFS UIBO ¦ " XJEF EJWFSTJUZ PG QSPGFTTJPOT BOE MFWFMT PG FEVDBUJPO NBTUFS T NBTUFS T BOE UFBDIFS NBTUFS T BOE EFWFMPQNFOU EPDUPSBUF TUVEFOU EPDUPS EPDUPSBUF TUVEFOU BOE UFBDIFS SFTFBSDIFS SFTFBSDIFS BOE UFBDIFS UFBDIFS BOE EFWFMPQNFOU EFWFMPQNFOU QSBDUJUJPOFS ¦ " IJHI EFHSFF PG NVMUJ EJTDJQMJOBSJUZ TPDJPMPHZ BOUISPQPMPHZ BOE TPDJP BOUISPQPMPHZ FDPOPNJDT TUBUJTUJDT EFNPHSBQIZ HFPHSBQIZ IJTUPSZ QPMJUJDBM TDJFODFT NBOBHFNFOU EFWFMPQNFOU MFHBM TDJFODFT DPNQVUFS TDJFODFT ¦ 'PS UIF öSTU UJNF NPTU SFHJTUSBUJPOT XFSF GSPN UIF 4PVUI PG 7J̏U /BN )̕ $IÓ .JOI $JUZ $˿O 5Iˌ "O (JBOH #̋O 5SF #ÖOI %ˍˌOH UIFO )Ë /̘J åË -˼U åË /̆OH 5IÈJ /HVZÐO ¦ 3FHJPOBM BDDFTTJCJMJUZ $BNCPEJB -BPT ¦ *OTUJUVUJPOBM QMVSBMJTN t 7J̏U /BN 7"44 5SBJOJOH *OTUJUVUF 7J̏U /BN *OTUJUVUF PG &DPOPNJDT 7"44 /PSUIFSO *OTUJUVUF PG 4VTUBJOBCMF %FWFMPQNFOU 7"44 4PVUIFSO *OTUJUVUF PG 4VTUBJOBCMF %FWFMPQNFOU 7"44 *OTUJUVUF PG 1PMJUJDT BOE "ENJOJTUSBUJPO *OTUJUVUF PG 'BNJMZ BOE (FOEFS 3FTFBSDI /BUJPOBM 6OJWFSTJUZ PG )Ë /̘J )VNBO 3FTFBSDI *OTUJUVUF 7"44 )Ë /̘J $FOUSF PG "OBMZTJT BOE 'PSFDBTUJOH /BUJPOBM $FOUSF PG 4BUFMMJUFT École Normale )Ë /̘J *OTUJUVUF PG 4DJFOUJöD 4UVEJFT PG UIF &OWJSPONFOU BOE 4PDJBM "òBJST )Ë /̘J *OTUJUVUF PG 4PVUIFBTU "TJB 3FTFBSDI 7"44 $FOUSBM 7J̏U /BN *OTUJUVUF PG 4VTUBJOBCMF %FWFMPQNFOU 4PVUIFBTU "TJB 3FTFBSDI *OTUJUVUF 7"44 *OTUJUVUF PG &DPOPNJD BOE 8PSME 1PMJUJDT 3FTFBSDI )Ë /̘J 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 4DJFODFT BOE 5FDIOPMPHZ 645) 5IÈJ /HVZÐO 6OJWFSTJUZ PG &DPOPNJDT BOE #VTJOFTT .BOBHFNFOU 4PVUI BOE $FOUSBM 7J̏U /BN *OTUJUVUF PG 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT 5I̟ %˿V .̘U #ÖOI %ˍˌOH )̕ $IÓ .JOI $JUZ École Polytechnique $FOUSF PG $PNNVOJUZ %FWFMPQNFOU 3FTFBSDI $FOUSF PG 6SCBO 1MBOOJOH BOE %FWFMPQNFOU 3FTFBSDI $&'63% )̕ $IÓ .JOI $JUZ )PB 4FO 6OJWFSTJUZ )̕ $IÓ .JOI 6OJWFSTJUZ PG )VNBO BOE 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT )̕ $IÓ .JOI 6OJWFSTJUZ PG &DPOPNJD 4DJFODFT )̕ $IÓ .JOI %FWFMPQNFOU 3FTFBSDI *OTUJUVUF )̕ $IÓ .JOI 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 3FTPVSDFT BOE UIF &OWJSPONFOU )̕ $IÓ .JOI $JUZ $FOUSF GPS UIF "QQMJDBUJPO PG (FPHSBQIJDBM *OGPSNBUJPO 4ZTUFNT 6OJWFSTJUZ PG $˿O 5Iˌ 6OJWFSTJUZ PG "O (JBOH 6OJWFSTJUZ PG åË -˼U #̋O 5SF École Supérieure .FLPOH 3FTFBSDI *OTUJUVUF t $BNCPEJB *OTUJUVUF PG 5FDIOPMPHZ 3PZBM 6OJWFSTJUZ PG -BX BOE &DPOPNJD 4DJFODFT Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie EFMPDBMJTFE NBTUFS T JO )Ë /̘J t -BPT École Supérieure PG 'PSFJHO 5SBEF /BUJPOBM 6OJWFSTJUZ EFMPDBMJTFE NBTUFS T JO )Ë /̘J

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

'JOBMMZ XF DPVME OPU DPODMVEF UIJT TIPSU JOUSPEVDUJPO XJUIPVU BOOPVODJOH UIF SFOFXBM PG UIF +5% QBSUOFSTIJQ GPS UIF ZFBST BOE BOE UIF FJHIUI FEJUJPO PG UIF TVNNFS TDIPPM BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG åË -˼U UP CF IFME GSPN st UP th +VMZ PO B UIFNF UIBU JT KVTU BT FYDJUJOH “Outlooks on Sustainable Urban Development”. Stéphane Lagrée )FBE PG 'SBODPQIPOF $PPQFSBUJPO $FMM

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Acknowledgements The institutional synergy sealed by a four-year partnership agreement gives the Tam Đảo Summer 4DIPPM 8FFL B SFHJPOBM SFBDI PO UIF TDBMF PG 4PVUIFBTU "TJB BOE CFZPOE BOE GPS UIJT XF XPVME MJLF UP UIBOL UIF 7J̏U /BN "DBEFNZ PG 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT "HFODF 'SBOÎBJTF EF %ÏWFMPQQFNFOU "'% o 3FTFBSDI %FQBSUNFOU M ²DPMF GSBOÎBJTF E &YUSÐNF 0SJFOU ²'&0 M *OTUJUVU EF 3FDIFSDIF QPVS MF %ÏWFMPQQFNFOU *3% o %JSFDUJPO GPS UIF 1SPHSBN GPS 3FTFBSDI BOE 5SBJOJOH JO UIF 4PVUI UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT BT XFMM BT UIF "HFODF 6OJWFSTJUBJSF EF MB 'SBODPQIPOJF This publication is indebted to Philippe Cabin for his recommendations and it is important GPS VT UP UIBOL i4VQQPSU GPS ,OPXMFEHF .BOBHFNFOUw BU "'% GPS UIF RVBMJUZ PG PVS FYDIBOHFT with them. 8F FYUFOE BMM PG PVS HSBUJUVEF UP UIF FOUJSF UFBN PG USBJOFST GPS UIFJS TDJFOUJöD BOE QFEBHPHJDBM DPOUSJCVUJPOT EVSJOH UIF PSHBOJTBUJPO FYFDVUJPO BOE JNQSPWFNFOU PG UIJT ZFBS T 5BN å˽P 4VNNFS 4DIPPM 8FFL 'MPSFOU #ÏEÏDBSSBUT 4UÏQIBOF $BSUJFS "YFM %FNFOFU "MFYJT %SPHPVM 3BQIBÑM %VCP[ +FBO 1IJMJQQF 'POUFOFMMF /BTTFS (BTNJ #FOPÔU (BVEPV "SOBVE (SJHOBSE "MBJO )FOSZ :WFT -F #BST 7BOFTTB .BODFSPO $ISJTUPQIF +BMJM /PSNBO 4PQIJF 1BSEP -BVSF 1BTRVJFS %PVNFS :WFT 1FSSBVEFBV 1I˼N 5Ȋ )̕OH )˼OI 1IáOH å̠D 5áOH "ESJBO 1PQ 'SBOÎPJT 3PVCBVE #FSUSBOE 4BWPZF 1BUSJDL 5BJMMBOEJFS 0MJWJFS 5FTTJFS 5IPNBT 7BMMÏF #SVOP 7JOEFM BOE 7Ü å̠D ¬O The work involved in transcribing the sessions and workshops is a particularly long and arduous UBTL BOE PVS UIBOLT HP UP UIPTF XIP NBEF UIF FòPSU UP QSPWJEF TVDI RVBMJUZ UFYUT -ÏOB ,ÏSBWFD QMFOBSZ TFTTJPOT BOE 8PSLTIPQ HSBEVBUF PG UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 3FOOFT ** BOE UIF *OTUJUVU 3ÏHJPOBM EV 1BUSJNPJOF o *31" (XFOO 1VMMJBU 8PSLTIPQ EPDUPSBM DBOEJEBUF BU UIF $FOUFS GPS "HSBSJBO 4ZTUFNT 3FTFBSDI BOE %FWFMPQNFOU "UIÏOBÕT #ÏEBSE 8PSLTIPQ 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 5PVMPVTF .BSJF 'MPSJOF 5IJFòSZ 6OJWFSTJUZ PG )Ë /̘J We would like to congratulate the interpreters and translators who have accompanied this ̓ +5% 5S˿O 5Ȋ 1IˍˌOH 5I˽P ,J̌V 5Ȋ 5IVâ 2VȅOI 6OJWFSTJUZ PG )Ë /̘J -Ð 5IBOI .BJ 7JFUOBNFTF .JOJTUSZ PG 'PSFJHO "òBJST /HVZ̎O 5Ȋ 5VZ̋U -BO 'SFODI &NCBTTZ JO 7J̏U /BN %BWJE̓4NJUI BOE .BSZ (MÏNPU GSFFMBODF USBOTMBUPST 'JOBMMZ UIF TVDDFTT PG UIF FEJUJPO JT MBSHFMZ EVF UP UIF SFDFQUJPO DPOEJUJPOT PòFSFE CZ UIF 1FPQMF T $PNNJUUFF PG -ÉN å̕OH 1SPWJODF BOE UIF EJSFDUPST PG UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG åË -˼U .S ̓/HVZ̎O å̠D )ÛB 1SFTJEFOU .S /HVZ̎O åÖOI )˽P /HVZ̎O %VZ .̂V 7JDF 1SFTJEFOU BOE .S .BJ 9VÉO 5SVOH 7JDF 1SFTJEFOU UP BMM XF FYUFOE PVS NPTU TJODFSF UIBOLT Prof. Dr. ĐỖ Hoài Nam President of the Administration Council PG UIF (SBEVBUF "DBEFNZ PG 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Opening Remarks 7Ăœ ,IĂˆOI 7JOI Director of the Training Institute, Vice-President of VASS +FBO /PĂ‘M 1PJSJFS French Ambassador in Viᝇt Nam +FBO .BSD (SBWFMMJOJ Director, AFD, Viᝇt Nam Olivier Tessier Representative of ÉFEO in Viᝇt Nam +FBO 1BTDBM 5PSSĂ?UPO Representative of IRD in Viᝇt Nam :WFT 1FSSBVEFBV University Professor, Head of Viᝇt Nam and Southeast Asia Mission, University of Nantes $MBVEF &NNBOVFM -FSPZ Principal Project Manager, AUF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Opening Remarks by

7Ăœ ,IĂˆOI 7JOI

Director of the Training Institute, Vice-President of VASS Ladies and Gentlemen, 0O CFIBMG PG UIF 7JĚ?U /BN "DBEFNZ PG 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT * TIPVME ĂśSTU MJLF UP XJTI B XBSN XFMDPNF UP +FBO /PĂ‘M 1PJSJFS 'SFODI "NCBTTBEPS JO 7JĚ?U /BN UP UIF SFDUPS PG UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG ĂĽĂ‹Íƒ -ËźU UP UIF SFQSFTFOUBUJWFT PG UIF SFTFBSDI CPEJFT BOE JOTUJUVUFT BOE UP representatives of the donor organisations and of the French universities here today. * TIPVME BMTP MJLF UP XFMDPNF BMM UIF USBJOFST BOE USBJOFFT PG UIF +5%

UIF +5% BEESFTTFE DVSSFOU JTTVFT PG SFHJPOBM and international importance. Think about i4USBUFHJFT UP 'JHIU "HBJOTU 1PWFSUZw i*TTVFT PG 4PDJBM %JòFSFOUJBUJPO BOE *OFRVBMJUJFTw i8BUFS BOE JUT .BOZ *TTVFTw BOE UIJT ZFBS i3JTL Perception and Managementâ€?. These themes were dealt with from a multi-disciplinary and DSPTTDVUUJOH̓ BOHMF UIVT DPOUSJCVUJOH UP BO improvement in competences by introducing and applying new methodological approaches to the worlds of research and development.

5IJT ZFBS NBSLT UIF th FEJUJPO PG UIF +5% XIJDI̓ BSF B VOJRVF USBJOJOH QMBUGPSN organised every year thanks to close cooperation between VASS and its historical French and French-speaking partners. This edition is also the fourth and last year of our QBSUOFSTIJQ BHSFFNFOU 0O UIJT PDDBTJPO BMMPX NF UP UBLF TUPDL CSJFøZ PG what we have achieved and the results we have obtained.

The geographical opening up on a regional TDBMF BOE UIF XJEFOJOH PG PVS QVCMJD constitute another important result for the +5% "MUIPVHI UIF ĂśSTU UISFF FEJUJPOT XFSF FTTFOUJBMMZ PQFO UP 7JFUOBNFTF USBJOFFT GSPN JO DPOGPSNJUZ XJUI PVS QBSUOFSTIJQ BHSFFNFOU UIF +5% PQFOFE JUT EPPST UP SFHJPOBM QBSUJDJQBOUT $BNCPEJB -BPT .BMBZTJB BOE 5IBJMBOE 5IF SFQVUBUJPO PG UIJT summer school in social sciences thus went beyond Vietnamese territory to become today a much-awaited annual summer event.

5PEBZ UIF +5% CFOFĂśU GSPN B DFSUBJO reputation in the fields of scientific research BOE USBJOJOH JO 7JĚ?U /BN BOE JO DPOUJOFOUBM 4PVUIFBTU "TJB *O JUT QSFDFEJOH FEJUJPOT

'JOBMMZ USBJOJOH IPXFWFS FYDFMMFOU JU NBZ CF cannot build up a reputation and continue XJUIPVU TDJFOUJĂśD QVCMJDBUJPOT 0O UIJT QPJOU * TIPVME MJLF UP DPOHSBUVMBUF UIF UFBN GSPN

Ladies and Gentlemen,

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

the Cellule de CoopÊration Francophone for JUT FòPSUT BOE FóDJFODZ 5IF DPOUFOU PG FBDI FEJUJPO JT FEJUFE USBOTMBUFE BOE BOOVBMMZ QVCMJTIFE JO UISFF MBOHVBHFT &OHMJTI 'SFODI and Vietnamese. These scientific publications BSF PG WFSZ IJHI RVBMJUZ BOE BUUSBDU UIF attention of our researchers and teachers. 'PS BMM UIFTF SFBTPOT 7"44 SFJUFSBUFT JUT XJTI and its will to continue this cooperation XJUI JUT MPOH TUBOEJOH QBSUOFST XIJMF BU the same time encouraging a widening of the partnership in order to make possible a TFDPOE QIBTF Ladies and Gentlemen, Europe is debating its recovery from the debt crisis; Africa and the Middle East are plunged into social and political instability; UFSSPSJTN JOUFSFUIOJD BOE SFMJHJPVT DPOøJDUT BSF PO UIF SJTF UISPVHIPVU UIF XPSME /BUVSBM catastrophes linked to climate change and the destruction of the environment are causing havoc on all continents. Remember UIF SFDFOU FBSUIRVBLF BOE UTVOBNJ UIBU TUSVDL +BQBO DBVTJOH B SBEJPBDUJWF MFBL JO 5IF FOEFNJD SJTL PG BWJBO øV DPOUJOVFT to threaten Asian countries. The world must face up to an increasing number of multifaceted risks. The management of these SJTLT JT UPEBZ B NBKPS QSFPDDVQBUJPO PG governments. This management implies close cooperation between countries in a DPOUFYU PG HMPCBMJTBUJPO BOE JOUFHSBUJPO

This is why we have chosen by mutual BHSFFNFOU UP EFWPUF UIJT FEJUJPO PG UIF +5% to “The Perception and Management of Risksâ€?. 5IJT ZFBS UIF VOJWFSTJUZ PG ĂĽĂ‹Íƒ -ËźU JT BU UIF IFBSU PG UIF +5% PSHBOJTBUJPO 5IF USBJOFST BOE FYQFSUT IBWF DPNF GSPN SFTFBSDI JOTUJUVUFT and prestigious French universities. More than seventy Vietnamese trainees represent UIF UISFF NBKPS SFHJPOT PG 7JĚ?U /BN 0VS $BNCPEJBO BOE -BPUJBO DPMMFBHVFT BSF BMTP present. 8F BSF BMTP WFSZ IBQQZ UIBU UIFTF +5% BSF QBSU PG UIF 'SBODF 7JĚ?U /BN :FBS XIJDI PODF BHBJO VOEFSMJOFT UIF RVBMJUZ PG UIF USBJOJOH 5P DPODMVEF PO NZ CFIBMG BOE PO CFIBMG PG 7"44 * BN TJODFSFMZ UIBOLGVM UP PVS QBSUOFST XIP IBWF BDDPNQBOJFE VT TJODF Agence Française de DĂŠveloppement, l’Institut de Recherche pour le DĂŠveloppement, l’École Française d’ExtrĂŞme-Orient UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT BOE l’Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie. * TIPVME BMTP MJLF UP UIBOL UIF SFDUPSTIJQ and the management of the university of ĂĽĂ‹Íƒ-ËźU GPS UIFJS XBSN XFMDPNF BT XFMM BT PVS colleagues from the Cellule de CoopĂŠration Francophone for their contribution in making UIF +5% B TVDDFTT (PPE IFBMUI UP ZPV BMM FWFSZ TVDDFTT UP UIF +5% Thank you for your attention.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Opening Remarks by

+FBO /PĂ‘M 1PJSJFS French Ambassador in Viᝇt Nam Dear Mr. VĂľ KhĂĄnh Vinh, Dear Ladies and Gentlemen, Dear friends, * BN WFSZ IBQQZ UP CF BNPOH ZPV UIJT NPSOJOH JO UIJT CFBVUJGVM DJUZ PG ĂĽĂ‹ -ËźU GPS this seventh edition of the Tam Ä?ảo Social 4DJFODFT 4VNNFS 4DIPPM XIJDI IBT UIF HPPE GPSUVOF UP CF IFSF UIJT ZFBS *U T B HSFBU JOJUJBUJWF BT UIJT ZFBS ĂĽĂ‹ -ËźU JT DFMFCSBUJOH JUT th̓ BOOJWFSTBSZ :PV LOPX BMSFBEZ UIBU 'SBODF UIBOLT UP %PDUPS :FSTJO was responsible for the founding of the city PG ĂĽĂ‹ -ËźU PVS DPVOUSZ KPJOT UPHFUIFS XJUI UIF -ÉN ĂĽĚ•OH QSPWJODF UP DFMFCSBUF UIJT BOOJWFSTBSZ XJUI OPUBCMZ BU UIF FOE PG UIF year a French cultural week. 'SBODF JT QSFTFOU JO UIF QPMJUJDBM FDPOPNJD and cooperation domains. One of our strong points is university cooperation in the field PG SFTFBSDI BOE UIFTF +5% BSF UFTUJNPOZ UP UIJT *U JT EJĂłDVMU UP ĂśOE BO FRVJWBMFOU PG UIJT QSPKFDU UIBU ZPV BSF VOEFSUBLJOH XJUI the École Française d’ExtrĂŞme-Orient UIF cooperation of French universities and the support of services from the French Embassy. 0WFS UIF OFYU GFX EBZT ZPV XJMM CFOFĂśU GSPN a rare level of debate about the perception BOE NBOBHFNFOU PG SJTLT B OPUJPO UIBU JT BMM UPP SFBM JO 7JĚ?U /BN XIFO XF TQFBL BCPVU environmental and climate risks.

* EPO U XBOU UP TQFBL GPS UPP MPOH BT UIFTF +5% BSF HPJOH UP CF MPOH BOE UIF ĂśSTU MFDUVSFT BSF BCPVU UP CFHJO * TIPVME MJLF UP XBSNMZ thank all my fellow French compatriots who have come here today to prove that French QFPQMF EP XPSL CFUXFFO UIF th BOE th of +VMZ * TIPVME BMTP MJLF UP UIBOL UIF 7JFUOBNFTF USBJOFFT XIP EVSJOH UIFTF TBNF +5% XIJMF the city is full of Vietnamese tourists who have DPNF UP EJTDPWFS UIF DJUZ PG ĂĽĂ‹ -ËźU BOE UIF QSPWJODF PG -ÉN ĂĽĚ•OH IBWF EFDJEFE UP DPNF to this summer school and meet French researchers with whom they will share their FYQFSJFODFT 'JOBMMZ * TIPVME TJNQMZ MJLF UP XJTI ZPV BMM B very pleasant meeting here in the University PG ĂĽĂ‹ -ËźU XIJDI * UIBOL GPS JUT XBSN XFMDPNF BOE * IPQF UIBU UIFTF +5% XJMM CF GPS UIF DJUZ PG ĂĽĂ‹ -ËźU BO FWFOU UIBU XJMM TPNF EBZ CF repeated. * BN CPUI IBQQZ BOE QSPVE UP CF BNPOH ZPV UIJT NPSOJOH #Z DPNJOH IFSF UPEBZ * XBOUFE to show the importance the French Embassy BOE UIF TFSWJDFT PG UIF 'SFODI 'PSFJHO 0ĂłDF attach to this type of cooperation that does so much for the reputation and longevity of SFMBUJPOT CFUXFFO 'SBODF BOE 7JĚ?U /BN Thank you everybody.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Opening Remarks by

+FBO .BSD (SBWFMMJOJ Director, AFD, Viᝇt Nam Mr. Jean NoĂŤl Poirier, Ambassador of France in Viᝇt Nam, Mr. VĂľ KhĂĄnh Vinh, Vice-President of VASS and Director of the Training Institute, Mr. Ä?áť— HoĂ i Nam, President of the Administration Council of the Training Institute and former President of VASS, Ladies and Gentlemen, Dear colleagues, "T ZPV LOPX UIF "'% JT POF PG UIF NBJO donors in the countries of the sub-continent. 5IFTF DPVOUSJFT GSPN XIJDI ZPV DPNF BSF FYQFSJFODJOH SFNBSLBCMF QSPHSFTT BOE FWFO EFFQ VQIFBWBMT 5IFZ NVTU DPOTFRVFOUMZ BDRVJSF DBQBDJUJFT PG SFTFBSDI BOE BOBMZTJT to better understand the challenges of their EFWFMPQNFOU BOE UP CFUUFS BQQSFIFOE UIF successive crises with which they will be inevitably confronted. Knowledge production at AFD "T XFMM BT ĂśOBODJBM QSPEVDUJPO UIF ĂśOBODJOH PG QSPKFDUT UIF "'% IBT XBOUFE UP EFWFMPQ over the last ten or so years an intellectual QSPEVDUJPO B QSPEVDUJPO PG LOPXMFEHF *O UIJT̓ DPOUFYU BMMPX NF UP QPJOU PVU UIF QSFTFODF BNPOH VT PG .S "MBJO )FOSZ NZ QSFEFDFTTPS JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J XIP JT DVSSFOUMZ EJSFDUPS PG SFTFBSDI BU UIF "'% T IFBERVBSUFST "MBJO )FOSZ IBT XJEFMZ DPOUSJCVUFE UP EFWFMPQJOH UIJT QJMMBS PG "'% BDUJWJUZ BOE IFSF JO 7JĚ?U /BN OPUBCMZ IF JOWPMWFE UIF BHFODZ JO UIF ĂśOBODJOH BOE TFUUJOH VQ PG UIF +5%

*O 7JĚ?U /BN QSFDJTFMZ XF DPODFOUSBUF PVS SFøFDUJPOT BSPVOE UIF GPMMPXJOH UIFNFT DMJNBUF BOE FOFSHZ VSCBOJTBUJPO BOE NJHSBUJPO HPWFSOBODF BOE TPDJFUZ 5IJT intellectual production aims at throwing light upon our intervention strategies BOE PòFSJOH TVQQPSU GPS UIF EFĂśOJOH PG JOOPWBUJWF QSPHSBNNFT $PODSFUFMZ UIJT NFBOT BDDPNQBOZJOH USBJOJOH TUVEJFT SFTFBSDI QSPHSBNNFT BOE UIF EJTTFNJOBUJPO PG LOPXMFEHF "'% UIVT TFFLT UP BDRVJSF BO JO EFQUI VOEFSTUBOEJOH PG UIF MPDBM DPOUFYU to support the implementation of new QPMJDJFT BOE GFFE UIF EFCBUF BCPVU BJE BOE development. #Z QVSTVJOH UIFTF UBSHFUT "'% BMTP BUUFNQUT UP FODPVSBHF FYDIBOHFT CFUXFFO OPU POMZ SFTFBSDI BOE UIF PQFSBUJPOBM TQIFSF CVU also between networks of international researchers and national institutions. AFD Participation at the JTD 4JODF "'% IBT CFFO QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO UIF +5% BMPOH XJUI SFTFBSDIFST BOE VOJWFSTJUZ MFDUVSFST GSPN UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT *3% ²'&0 "6' UP OBNF CVU B GFX 5IJT QBSUOFSTIJQ JNQMFNFOUFE CZ ²'&0 JO JT CBTFE VQPO USBJOJOH XIJDI JT UIF GPVOEBUJPO of all economic and social development. 0OF PG UIF NBKPS BTTFUT PG UIF QSPHSBNNF JT CBTFE VQPO DPODSFUF EFUBJMFE BQQMJFE learning and scientific methodology. Allow

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

me here to emphasise one of the original JNQPSUBOU RVBMJUJFT PG UIF +5% OPU POMZ JT BQQMJFE TDJFODF MFBSOFE CVU JU JT BMTP BDRVJSFE in a multi-disciplinary manner. All the results PG UIF EFWFMPQNFOU QIBTF PG UIF +5% BSF UIF PCKFDU PG BO FYUFSOBM FWBMVBUJPO DBSSJFE PVU CZ BO JOEFQFOEFOU DPOTVMUBOU * BN happy to announce that this evaluation has CFFO WFSZ QPTJUJWF 5IBU T XIZ UIJT ZFBS "'% TIPVME EFDJEF * WFSZ NVDI IPQF UP DPOUJOVF TVQQPSUJOH UIJT QBSUOFSTIJQ XJUI UIF +5% The 2013 Thematic 'JOBMMZ * TIPVME MJLF UP DPOHSBUVMBUF UIF +5% team on their choice of topic for their work. :PV BSF HPJOH UP XPSL PO i 5IF 1FSDFQUJPO BOE .BOBHFNFOU PG 3JTLw 5IJT TVCKFDU IBT CFFO QBSUJDVMBSMZ XFMM DIPTFO BT JU JT DVSSFOUMZ BU the centre of much concern in the world of VOJWFSTJUJFT BOE FOUFSQSJTF *U JT B TVCKFDU GPS the future because tomorrowโ s world is also POF PG NBKPS SJTLT 5IVT BT B EPOPS BHFODZ we are spending more and more time BQQSFDJBUJOH UIF SJTLT MJOLFE UP - The social and economic situation of countries; %FNPHSBQIJDT BDDFMFSBUFE VSCBOJTBUJPO territorial development; &OWJSPONFOUBM JTTVFT UBLJOH JOUP BDDPVOU UIF FรฒFDU PO OBUVSBM SFTPVSDFT XBUFS BJS TPJM PG UIF QSPKFDUT XF รถOBODF $MJNBUF B DPVOUSZ MJLF 7Jฬ U /BN รถHVSFT GPS FYBNQMF BNPOH UIF DPVOUSJFT UIBU BSF UIF NPTU FYQPTFE UP UIF DPOTFRVFODFT PG rising water levels; 5IF QPMJUJDBM FYQPTVSF PG DFSUBJO "'% QBSUOFST UIF HPWFSOBODF PG UIF DPVOUSJFT in which we intervene;

5IF JODSFBTF JO FRVBMJUJFT CFUXFFO JOEJWJEVBMT TPDJBM DMBTTFT TFYFT BOE generations; 3FQVUBUJPO TIPVME XF BTTPDJBUF PVSTFMWFT XJUI QSPKFDUT UIBU NJHIU SFTVMU JO DSJUJDJTN GSPN /(0T GSPN JOEFQFOEFOU PCTFSWFST PS FWFO UIF QSFTT - Money laundering or the financing of terrorism; - Aspects of legality and non-conformity; 5IF รถOBODJOH DPOEJUJPOT XF PรฒFS UP UIF companies we finance. Our own financial situation depends on this. "MM UIFTF SJTLT NVTU CF UBLFO JOUP BDDPVOU they must be measured as much as possible and appreciated in their right dimension. #VU XF NVTU OPU GBMM JOUP UIF USBQ PG SJTL BWFSTJPO UIF SFGVTBM UP UBLF UIF TMJHIUFTU SJTL *O UIF DPVOUSJFT XIFSF XF JOUFSWFOF XF BSF CZ EFรถOJUJPO FYQPTFE UP UIJT UZQF PG SJTL 8F NVTU BOBMZTF UIFN TPNFUJNFT XF NVTU SFGVTF UP UBLF UIFN CVU PGUFO PVS SPMF BT B development bank consists in taking risks with full background knowledge and paying special attention to the limiting of these risks. :PV XJMM VOEFSTUBOE UIBU JO TVDI B DPOUFYU ZPVS XPSL UPEBZ BU UIFTF +5% BOE UPNPSSPX BT SFTFBSDIFST JO ZPVS SFTQFDUJWF MBCPSBUPSJFT is of great interest to us. This is why we shall CF FYUSFNFMZ BUUFOUJWF UP UIF DPODMVTJPOT PG your workshops. And itโ s also the reason for XIJDI * XJTI ZPV B QMFBTBOU XFFL T XPSL BOE lots of success in our Tam ฤ แบฃo Social Sciences 4VNNFS 4DIPPM JO รฅร -หผU Thank you for your attention.

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

Opening Remarks by

Olivier Tessier

Representative of ร FEO in Viแป t Nam * BN WFSZ IBQQZ UP CF QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO UIJT thอ FEJUJPO PG UIF +5% 0WFS UIF ZFBST UIJT annual meeting has become a not-tobe-missed event of Franco-Vietnamese DPPQFSBUJPO JO TPDJBM TDJFODFT UP TVDI B QPJOU that its reputation has crossed the Vietnamese borders and it is now attracting participants from other countries in the region. )FSF CSJFรธZ BSF UIF SFMBUJPOT UIBU MJOL ยฒ'&0 UP UIF +5% ยฒ'&0 UISPVHI JUT '41 QSPKFDU i3FTFBSDI Support into the Challenges of Social and &DPOPNJD 5SBOTJUJPO JO 7Jฬ U /BNw XBT BU UIF TPVSDF PG UIF +5% MBVODIFE JO CZ JUT iIJTUPSJDBMw DSFBUPS 4Uร QIBOF -BHSร F B contract researcher at the school. ยฒ'&0 QBSUJDJQBUFT XJUI 7"44 "'% *3% "6' BOE UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT JO UIF TDJFOUJรถD orientation of each edition and provides financial support. 'JOBMMZ BMM NFNCFST PG ยฒ'&0 QPTUFE BUอ UIF )ร /ฬ J PรณDF IBWF CFFO EJSFDUMZ JOWPMWFE in the activities and events proposed by UIF +5% BOE UIJT XBT UIF DBTF GSPN JUT WFSZ รถSTU FEJUJPO 1IJMJQQF 1BQJO "OESFX )BSEZ 1IJMJQQF -F 'BJMMFS BOE NZTFMG "T GPS NF 4Uร QIBOF XBSNMZ BOE B UPVDI JSPOJDBMMZ SFGFST UP NF BT iUIF +5% T MJWJOH NFNPSZw JO TP GBS BT * IBWF QBSUJDJQBUFE JO FWFSZ FEJUJPO PG UIF +5% XIFUIFS JU CF JO BO interventionary framework in the plenary TFTTJPOT BOE PS BT KPJOU PSHBOJTFS GPS รถWF ZFBST

of the workshop into socio-anthropological TVSWFZT As an active observer of this event since JUT DSFBUJPO * TIPVME MJLF UP TBZ B GFX XPSET about how it has progressed. 'PS UIF รถSTU UXP ZFBST UIF WPDBUJPO PG UIF +5%อ XBT BCPWF BMM DPODFJWFE UP CF BOE described as a training event that would SBJTF BXBSFOFTT PG UIF EJรฒFSFOU NFUIPET and approaches particular to each of the NBKPS EJTDJQMJOBSZ รถFMET EFBMU XJUI FDPOPNZ TPDJPMPHZ BOUISPQPMPHZ EFNPHSBQIZ FUD )FODF UIF UJUMF PG UIF GFFECBDL QVCMJDBUJPO PG UIF รถSTU UXP FEJUJPOT BOE XBT FMPRVFOU i/FX "QQMJFE .FUIPEPMPHJDBM "QQSPBDIFT UP %FWFMPQNFOUw 5IF FEJUJPO GPMMPXFE CZ UIF MBVODI PG UIF GPVS ZFBS QSPKFDU JO NBSLFE B UVSOJOH QPJOU JO UIF JOJUJBM EFรถOJUJPO PG UIF +5% *O PSEFS UP give more weight to the trainingโ s impact and to federate the topics of the presentations in UIF QMFOBSZ TFTTJPOT BT XFMM BT UIPTF EFBMU XJUI JO UIF EJรฒFSFOU XPSLTIPQT B DPNNPO TUVEZ TVCKFDU XBT EFรถOFE i4USBUFHJFT GPS UIF 3FEVDUJPO PG 1PWFSUZ .FUIPEPMPHJDBM BOE $SPTTDVUUJOH Approachesโ ; i5SBOTJUJPOT %FDSFFE 5SBOTJUJPOT &YQFSJFODFE 'SPN (MPCBM UP -PDBM .FUIPEPMPHJDBM $SPTTDVUUJOH BOE $SJUJDBM Methodsโ ;

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

i4PDJBM %JòFSFOUJBUJPO BOE *OFRVBM ities. Methodological and Crosscutting "QQSPBDIFT UP 2VFTUJPOT PG &UIOJDJUZw i8BUFS BOE JUT .BOZ *TTVFT .FUIPE ological and Crosscutting Approachesâ€?. This progression of the concept had a double PCKFDUJWF UP FNQIBTJTF UIF NVMUJ EJTDJQMJOBSZ EJNFOTJPO PG UIF TVCKFDUT EFBMU XJUI CZ showing the participants in a concrete NBOOFS UIBU EJWFSTF DPNQMFNFOUBSZ SFHBSET XIFUIFS OFVUSBM PS BOUBHPOJTUJD DPVME CF FYQSFTTFE BCPVU UIF TBNF TVCKFDU UP NBUFSJBMJTF BOE SFJOGPSDF UIF FYJTUJOH MJOLT between the scientific methods particular to the social sciences and approaches to development. This year’s theme is a new demonstration of our wish to prioritise a multi-disciplinary approach and be in phase with the concerns of the contemporary world. Even though the notion of “riskâ€? is consubstantial with UIF IJTUPSZ PG IVNBOJUZ JUT FWPMVUJPO BOE RVBOUJĂśDBUJPO XFSF UIF TPVSDF PG BO JOTUJUVUJPO JO UIF th century that has now CFDPNF GBNJMJBS BOE FWFO CBOBM JOTVSBODF and the insurance systems that protect our lives. *O 7JĚ?U /BN QPUFOUJBM UISFBUT FJUIFS SFBM PS JNBHJOFE DBVTFE CZ DMJNBUF DIBOHF BSF BU UIF heart of the State’s concerns and also those

of private and public institutional players and international donors. Faced with this spontaneous and/or carefully orchestrated HSPXJOH BXBSFOFTT XF DBO MFHJUJNBUFMZ XPOEFS GPS FYBNQMF XIBU QFSDFQUJPOT EP populations have of these current changes JO DMJNBUF BOE PG UIFJS QPUFOUJBM JNQBDU 3JTL TPDJPMPHZ B CSBODI PG TPDJPMPHZ UIBU has greatly developed since the publication PG JUT GPVOEJOH XPSL CZ 6MSJDI #FDL JO i3JTL 4PDJFUZ 5PXBSET B /FX .PEFSOJUZw DBO UISPX OFX MJHIU PO UIF TVCKFDU BOE QSPWJEF answers. 5P HFU CBDL UP UIF +5% MFU VT SFNBSL UIBU progress in the concept of risk has been accompanied by an opening up to other countries in the region and progress in the RVBMJUZ PG JUT XSJUUFO QVCMJDBUJPOT CPUI JO UIFJS DPOUFOU BOE GPSNBU 4JODF BO &OHMJTI version has been added to its publications XJUIJO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG BO "'% ²'&0 DP publication. 5P DPODMVEF XF DBO UIVT POMZ IPQF UIBU B OFX GPVS ZFBS NVMUJ QBSUOFS QSPKFDU XJMM guarantee the pursuit of the brand-new FYQFSJFODF UIF +5% DPOTUJUVUF BOE UIBU UIF latter may inspire new initiatives and forms of cooperation throughout the region that will work for the development of social sciences and for a better understanding of both past and present Southeast Asian societies.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Opening Remarks by

+FBO 1BTDBM 5PSSĂ?UPO Representative of IRD in Viᝇt Nam Dear Vice-president of the Viᝇt Nam Academy of Social Sciences, Dear French Ambassador in Viᝇt Nam, Dear Director of Studies and Research at "HFODF 'SBOĂŽBJTF EF %Ă?WFMPQQFNFOU, Ladies and Gentlemen, Dear colleagues, organisers and participants, Ever since the creation of the Summer School JO 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT JO *3% IBT DPNNJUUFE itself with its partners to contributing to its TVDDFTT 0ODF BHBJO UIJT ZFBS PVS JOTUJUVUF JT HJWJOH JUT TVQQPSU UP UIJT TDJFOUJĂśD FWFOU which is of utmost importance to researchers BOE BEWBODFE TUVEFOUT JO UIJT ĂśFME CPUI financially and through the investment of its TDJFOUJTUT *3% T JOWPMWFNFOU JO UIF TDIPPM JT continuing for many reasons. 'JSTUMZ UIJT QBSUOFSTIJQ XJUI 7"44 JT NBJOUBJOFE because it is the wish of its President that it be SFOFXFE FBDI ZFBS *O UIJT IJT XJTI DPOWFSHFT XJUI UIBU PG *3% UP JOWPMWF NPSF JUT 4PVUIFSO partners in the definition and creation of common targets in an ethical approach to the partnership. 'VSUIFSNPSF UIJT JOUFS JOTUJUVUJPOBM TZOFSHZ CFUXFFO 7"44 "'% ²'&0 "6' UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT BOE *3% BMTP DPSSFTQPOET UP B mode of action that was desired by our institute for the benefit of our Southern partners.

This social sciences summer school aims to impart to trainees a scientific approach and methodologies for study. This transfer will CFOFĂśU GVUVSF TDJFOUJĂśD NBOBHFST VOJWFSTJUZ teachers and researchers whose analyses will help define public policies aimed at responding to development issues. This transfer is an integral part of the institute’s development research missions. The interdisciplinary and crosscutting nature PG UIF BQQSPBDIFT XIJDI XFSF BEWPDBUFE from the very outset by its organisers and QBSUOFST JT BMTP UIF TBNF BQQSPBDI PVS JOTUJUVUF BEPQUT BT XF BSF DPOWJODFE UIBU only multi-disciplinary collaboration will help us rise to development challenges. 5IF i'SBODF 7JĚ?U /BN :FBSw XIJDI DFMFCSBUFT UIF th anniversary of diplomatic relations CFUXFFO UIF UXP DPVOUSJFT JT CFJOH celebrated by a wide range of events in BMM ĂśFMET JODMVEJOH SFTFBSDI BOE IJHIFS FEVDBUJPO 5IBU T XIZ *3% JT WFSZ IBQQZ UP CF QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO UIJT i'SBODF 7JĚ?U /BN :FBSw BOE JT EPJOH TP JO UISFF EJòFSFOU XBZT B̓ QIPUPHSBQIJD FYQPTJUJPO BCPVU UIF activities we have carried out in collaboration XJUI PVS QBSUOFST MFDUVSFT EFCBUFT GPS UIF XJEFS QVCMJD BOE DPOHSFTTFT BOE XPSLTIPQT GPS TDJFOUJĂśD USBJOJOH 5IFTF +5% XIJDI BSF OPX PĂłDJBMMZ SFDPHOJTFE GPSN QBSU PG UIF latter.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

'JOBMMZ FWFO UIPVHI UIJT JNQPSUBOU BOOVBM social sciences scientific event is this year CFJOH DFMFCSBUFE JO B CJMBUFSBM GSBNFXPSL it is also part of the development activities of a regional network of Southern scientists. This regional dynamic also corresponds to the arrangements for intervention that the *3% IBT TFU JUTFMG XJUIJO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG JUT SFHJPOBM QSJPSJUZ QSPHSBNNFT * TIBMM DPNF back to this. 5IJT ZFBS T DIPTFO UIFNF i 5IF 1FSDFQUJPO BOE Management of Risk. Applied Methodological "QQSPBDIFT UP %FWFMPQNFOUw SFNJOET VT PG SFDFOU SFøFDUJPOT DBSSJFE PVU CZ *3% PO B regional scale. +VTU OPX * TQPLF BCPVU PVS JOTUJUVUF T XJTI UP TUSVDUVSF JUT QSPKFDUT PO B SFHJPOBM TDBMF JO PSEFS UP EFWFMPQ TZOFSHJFT CFUXFFO UFBNT BDBEFNJD TVCKFDUT BOE NFUIPET o SFTFBSDI is done on an international scale and thus a fortiori PO B SFHJPOBM POF o BOE BMTP UP PCUBJO BO JNQSPWFE WJTJCJMJUZ PG PVS QSPKFDUT on this scale. *O PSEFS UP SJTF UP UIFTF DIBMMFOHFT PVS institute has been recently developing a regional system of strategic long-term (ten ZFBST EFWFMPQNFOU XIJDI JT CSJOHJOH UPHFUIFS 4PVUIFSO BOE /PSUIFSO UFBNT UP XPSL PO DPNNPO KPJOUMZ ESBGUFE UBSHFUT the regional pilot programme. This system will mobilise Southern partners in its management and governance and in the ethical methods of the partnership that * TQPLF BCPVU FBSMJFS "NPOH UIF TFWFO FYJTUJOH POFT UIF POF EFWFMPQFE JO UIF SFHJPO JT FOUJUMFE 4&-5"3 GPS i4PJM 8BUFS $PBTUBM 8BUFST BOE 4PDJFUJFT 'BDFE XJUI 3JTLT JO 4PVUI BOE 4PVUIFBTU "TJBw *UT DFOUSBM BYJT JT iUIF QFSDFQUJPO FWBMVBUJPO BOE BUUFOVBUJPO PG SJTLTw BOE JT UIVT JO DMPTF DPOWFSHFODF XJUI

UIJT ZFBS T +5% UIFNF *O PSEFS UP BDIJFWF UIJT DSPTTDVUUJOH QSPHSBNNF UIF SFøFDUJPO PG *3%̓ BOE JUT QBSUOFST JT CBTFE VQPO UIF specificities of South and Southeast Asia that make it one of the regions in the world that is UIF NPTU FYQPTFE UP SJTL JO BMM JUT EJNFOTJPOT These characteristics can be brought UPHFUIFS̓ JO GPVS NBJO HSPVQT XIJDI BSF NPSF PS MFTT MJOLFE HFPNPSQIPMPHJDBM FOWJSPONFOUBM DMJNBUJD EFNPHSBQIJDBM BOE socio-economic. *O HFPNPSQIPMPHJDBM UFSNT UIF SFHJPO JT characterised by varied situations. We can EJTUJOHVJTI MBOE BU EJòFSFOU IFJHIUT XJUI UIF natural risks associated with them – volcanic FSVQUJPOT FSPTJPO PG TMPQJOH TPJM o BOE EFMUBT FYQPTFE UP øPPEJOH DPBTUBM FSPTJPO tsunamis and risks of being submerged by rising seas. As far as the environment and climate is DPODFSOFE UIJT [POF JT OFBS UIF XBSNFTU PDFBOJD [POFT PO UIF QMBOFU XIJDI GFFE the largest atmospheric convective activity. These warm waters thus constitute the driving force of the tropical atmospheric circulation that inter-reacts with other QIFOPNFOB PO B XJEF TQBUJBM TDBMF BOE PO EJòFSFOU UJNF TDBMFT BOE HJWFT SJTF UP FYUSFNF NFUFPSPMPHJDBM DPOEJUJPOT o̓DZDMPOFT øPPEJOH BOE ESPVHIU o UIBU NBZ CF FYBDFSCBUFE CZ HMPCBM DMJNBUF DIBOHF Another of this region’s characteristics is JUT HFOFSBMMZ IJHI EFNPHSBQIZ XJUI JUT implications in terms of food security. CrossCPSEFS NJHSBUJPO UIBU JT MJUUMF NPOJUPSFE BOE sometimes not at all in highly populated [POFT IBT GVSUIFSNPSF NBOZ DPOTFRVFODFT JO UFSNT PG FQJEFNJPMPHJDBM BOE [PPOPUJD risks.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

'JOBMMZ UIJT SFHJPO JT DIBSBDUFSJTFE CZ IJHI FDPOPNJD HSPXUI XIJDI XIFO JOUFSBDUJOH XJUI PUIFS TQFDJรถDJUJFT MFBET UP OVNFSPVT environmental and public health risks linked UP DIBOHFT JO MBOE VTF BOE VSCBO BHSJDVMUVSBM BOE JOEVTUSJBM QPMMVUJPO XIJDI BMTP SFTVMU JO TPDJP FDPOPNJD SJTLT CBOLJOH SJTLT FUD This regional pilot programme has been JO QMBDF TJODF MBTU ZFBS TDJFOUJTUT อ 4PVUIFBTU "TJBO JOTUJUVUJPOT BOE 'SFODI teams are currently involved. This year it is HJWJOH JUT TVQQPSU UP TDJFOUJรถD SFVOJPOT XPSLTIPQT PS SFTFBSDI JODFOUJWF QSPKFDUT which all involve researchers and partners in 7Jฬ U /BN IBMG PG XIJDI BSF DBSSJFE PVU CZ *3% researchers and their Vietnamese partners. 5P DPODMVEF UIJT QSFTFOUBUJPO IBT HJWFO B TVNNBSZ PG UIF PCKFDUJWFT UP CF QVSTVFE CZ UIJT QBSUOFSTIJQ BT UIJT ZFBS T +5% UIFNF โ Perception and Management of Risksโ closely DPOWFSHFT XJUI *3% T NJTTJPOT BOE UIF NFBOT of which it disposes to achieve them. As is the DBTF FBDI ZFBS UIF +5% XJMM DBMM MBSHFMZ VQPO UIF SFTFBSDIFST PG PVS JOTUJUVUF QBSUJDVMBSMZ

UIF FDPOPNJTUT GSPN UIF %*"- VOJU XIP IBWF CFFO QBSUOFST BOE KPJOU PSHBOJTFST PG UIJT FWFOU FWFS TJODF JU CFHBO CVU BMTP SFTFBSDIFST GSPN UIF JOUFSOBUJPOBM NJYFE VOJU of mathematical and computer science of DPNQMFY TZTUFNT NPEFMMJOH GPS UIF TFDPOE DPOTFDVUJWF ZFBS XIJDI BHBJO FNQIBTJTFT the interdisciplinary nature of this event. $FSUBJO PG UIF BCPWF NFOUJPOFE SJTLT UIF DIBMMFOHFT BOE DPODFQUT UIFZ JOWPMWF IPX they are perceived by the population and UIPTF XIP EFDJEF BOE UIFJS NBOBHFNFOU will be addressed during this social sciences TVNNFS TDIPPM * IBWF OP EPVCU UIBU UIBU UIF QMFOBSZ QSFTFOUBUJPOT GPMMPXFE CZ UIF USBJOJOH XJMM PODF BHBJO UIJT ZFBS MFBE UP NVDI BOJNBUFE EFCBUF BOE GFSUJMF FYDIBOHFT * UIBOL ZPV GPS ZPVS BUUFOUJPO BOE XJTI ZPV BO FYDFMMFOU th edition of the Tam ฤ แบฃo Social 4DJFODFT 4VNNFS 4DIPPM XIJDI JT UIJT ZFBS placed under the auspices of the โ France-Viแป t /BN :FBSw

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

Opening Remarks by

:WFT 1FSSBVEFBV University Professor Head of Viᝇt Nam and Southeast Asia Mission, University of Nantes KPJOU HVBSEJBOTIJQ EPDUPSBUFT *O PVS FZFT B GBJS FYDIBOHF

Dear French Ambassador in Viᝇt Nam, dear presidents, dear directors, doctorate students and colleagues, * BN HSFBUMZ IPOPVSFE UP CF QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO UIJT PQFOJOH TFTTJPO PG UIF +5% “Risk Perception and Management – Applied Methodological Approaches to %FWFMPQNFOUw 0O B QFSTPOBM MFWFM PG DPVSTF but also and especially as the President of UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT 4QFDJBM "EWJTPS GPS $PPQFSBUJPO XJUI 7JĚ?U /BN BOE 4PVUIFBTU "TJB * NPTU TJODFSFMZ UIBOL ZPV 0O CFIBMG PG 0MJWJFS -BCPVY UIF 1SFTJEFOU PG UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT BOE IJT 7JDF 1SFTJEFOU̓GPS *OUFSOBUJPOBM "òBJST (XĂ?OBĂ‘MMF 1SPVUJĂ’SF .BVMJPO XF BSF WFSZ IBQQZ UP be present for this seventh edition. The QSFTFODF PG UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT BU UIFTF +5% EFNPOTUSBUFT PVS XJTI UP DPOUJOVF QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO UIJT DPMMFDUJWF QSPKFDU We consider that this way of working is QPTJUJWF GPS EPDUPSBUF TUVEFOUT UFBDIFST BOE researchers in the Association of Southeast "TJBO /BUJPOT BOE UIF 'SFODI TQFBLJOH XPSME "GUFS UIF QSFWJPVT +5%T XF JNNFEJBUFMZ SFDFJWFE B iSFUVSO PO PVS DPNNJUNFOUw XJUI new cooperation and recent inscriptions for

Within the framework of its international DPPQFSBUJPO QPMJDZ PVS VOJWFSTJUZ JT participating actively in the medical TFDUPS )Ă‹Íƒ /Ě˜J BOE )Ě• $IĂ“ .JOI $JUZ UIF QIBSNBDFVUJDBM TFDUPS 1IĂž 5IĚ’ EFOUJTUSZ )Ă‹Íƒ/Ě˜J TDJFODFT BOE UFDIOJRVFT ĂĽĂ‹Íƒ/̆OH BOE $ËżO 5IËŒ BOE ĂśOBMMZ FDPOPNJD TDJFODFT BOE NBOBHFNFOU )Ă‹ /Ě˜J 1IOPN 1FOI )Ě•Íƒ $IĂ“ .JOI $JUZ *O̓ UIF GVUVSF PVS international cooperation strategy will EFQFOE PO OFX NFBOT PG DPNNVOJDBUJPO particularly given our limited human SFTPVSDFT 'VSUIFSNPSF BGUFS IBWJOH CFFO one of the original components of the SFøFDUJPO PO UIF QSPKFDU GPS B EPDUPSBM TDIPPM JO 7JĚ?U /BN UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT JT UPEBZ present in the future collective “doctoral OVSTFSZw QSPKFDU MFE CZ "6' BOE UIF 5SBJOJOH *OTUJUVUF BU 7"44 "T UIF EJSFDUPS PG UIF /BOUFT &DPOPNZ BOE .BOBHFNFOU *OTUJUVUF * TIPVME MJLF UP FNQIBTJTF PVS QSFTFODF IFSF JO 7JĚ?U /BN with four masters in the economy and management sector and one in Cambodia. 0VS QSPKFDUT XJUI 5IBJMBOE BSF QSPHSFTTJOH

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

This is a strategy of opening up that is also part of the regional positioning of these TVNNFS TDIPPMT XIJDI JT UIF XJTI PG BMM JUT partners. *U JT BMTP BT B UFBDIFS SFTFBSDIFS BOE FDPOPNJTU BDDPNQBOJFE CZ GPVS DPMMFBHVFT GSPN /BOUFT o 4PQIJF 1BSEP )หผOI 1IหผN "ESJBO 1PQ BOE 5IPNBT 7BMMร F PVS MBCPSBUPSZ EJSFDUPS o UIBU * BN QBSUJDJQBUJOH XJMMJOHMZ JO UIJT FWFOU )หผOI JT PVS DPMMFBHVF XIP JT B TQFDJBMJTU JO UIJT [POF BOE "ESJBO XJMM BMTP make a presentation in the plenary sessions. 5IF UIFNF PG UIFTF +5% o SJTL o JT BMTP GPS VT BO JNQPSUBOU BYJT PG SFTFBSDI BOE XIBU T NPSF 4PQIJF JT DP GBDJMJUBUPS PG PVS iรถOBODF and risk workshopโ . 'PS BO FDPOPNJTU UIF SJTL NBOBHFNFOU RVFTUJPO JT GVOEBNFOUBM "T 4DIVNQFUFS QPJOUFE PVU UIF FOUSFQSFOFVS JT UIF POF XIP takes the financial and technological risk. *OEFFE UIF UBLJOH PG SJTL JT JNQMJDJUMZ QSFTFOU in any type of created activity or investment. 5IJT SJTL PG B NJDSP PS NBDSP FDPOPNJD EJNFOTJPO DPODFSOT OVNFSPVT TFDUPST particularly in the financing or intermediation business. Systems of prudential regulation have shown their limits and need to be SFWJTFE XIJDI JT IBQQFOJOH 5IF TVCQSJNF DSJTJT XJUI JUT IBSNGVM DPOTFRVFODFT PO UIF SFBM FDPOPNZ JMMVTUSBUFT BMM UPP XFMM UIJT รถOBODJBM SJTL BT XFMM BT USBOTNJTTJPO phenomena. 3JTL BMTP FYJTUT CFZPOE UIF รถOBODJBM DSJTJT *O UIF JODSFBTJOHMZ HMPCBMJTFE FOWJSPONFOU PG FOUFSQSJTF EVSJOH UIF NBOBHFNFOU PG B

QSPKFDU UIFSF JT BO JOFWJUBCMF DPVOUSZ TQFDJรถD SJTL B HFP QPMJUJDBM POF BNPOH PUIFST XIJDI NBZ BรฒFDU PS FWFO VQTFU UIF CVTJOFTT NPEFM 8JUI HMPCBMJTBUJPO QIFOPNFOB FYDIBOHFT of goods and financial services are implicitly accompanied by commercial risks โ in SFMBUJPO UP QSPEVDU RVBMJUZ SFTQFDU PG UIF QSPEVDUJPO QSPDFTT MPHJTUJDT BOE BEIFSFODF UP TUBOEBSETอ o BOE รถOBODJBM POFT o FYDIBOHF payment. Although common market and JOUFHSBUJPO [POFT BMMPX VT UP SFEVDF DFSUBJO SJTLT UIFSF BSF PUIFST UIBU QFSTJTU FDPOPNJD integration is not without risk for acceding countries. *O WJFX PG UIFTF OVNFSPVT SJTLT PG XIJDI UIF MJTU JT CZ OP NFBOT FYIBVTUJWF JU JT JNQPSUBOU UP VOEFSTUBOE CZ NFBOT PG B GFX UPPMT UIF measure of risk and sensitivity to uncertain FWFOUT QSPCBCJMJTUJD PS OPU 5IFTF BSF B GFX avenues of discussion that will be developed in the โ financial and economic riskโ workshop. 5IBOL ZPV UP 4Uร QIBOF -BHSร F 5SBOH BOE UIFJS DPMMFBHVFT XIP UISPVHI UIFJS EBJMZ DPNNJUNFOU NBLF UIFTF +5% QPTTJCMF 5IBOL ZPV UP 7"44 &'&0 "'% *3% BOE "6' for accepting to be all together with us in UIJT XPOEFSGVM QSPKFDU 5IBOL ZPV UP UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG รฅร -หผU GPS XFMDPNJOH VT IFSF 0O CFIBMG PG 0MJWJFS -BCPVY UIF 1SFTJEFOU PG UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT * PODF BHBJO UIBOL ZPV GPS CFJOH IFSF * BN CPUI IBQQZ BOE IPOPVSFE UP CF BNPOH ZPV BOE XJUI ZPV JO UIJT DPNNPO QSPKFDU * XJTI HPPE IFBMUI BOE success to all the participants.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

Opening Remarks by

$MBVEF &NNBOVFM -FSPZ Principal Project Manager, AUF Dear Vice-President of the Viᝇt Nam Academy of Social Sciences, Dear French Ambassador, Ladies and Gentlemen, representatives of our partner institutions, Dear friends, "MMPX NF EFBS 7JDF 1SFTJEFOU UP UIBOL ZPV GPS UIPTF XFMDPNJOH XPSET B UIBOL ZPV UIBU * TIPVME MJLF UP FYUFOE UP UIPTF XJUIJO the French-speaking department of your academy who have welcomed us with open arms. My presence at this opening ceremony is above all proof of the interest the Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie has in any type of shared reflection put to work to the CFOFĂśU PG UIF DVSSFOU OFFET PG PVS TPDJFUJFT BOE DPOTFRVFOUMZ UIFJS EFWFMPQNFOU 5IJT JO B OVUTIFMM JT UIF BJN PG UIF UIFNF QSPQPTFE JO PVS +5% BOE PG UIF JTTVFT UIBU EFSJWF GSPN UIFN -FU T UIJOL BCPVU IFBMUI SJTLT FDPOPNJD SJTLT ĂśOBODJBM SJTLT CVU BMTP BCPVU UFDIOPMPHJDBM BOE FOWJSPONFOUBM POFT to list but a few. 'BDFE XJUI UIFTF SJTLT BT JT UIF DBTF GPS NBOZ PG UIF PUIFS DIBMMFOHFT PG PVS TPDJFUJFT JU XPVME CF JMMVTPSZ UP CFMJFWF UIBU B SFTFBSDIFS PS FWFO BO JOTUJUVUJPO DPVME TVDDFFE BMPOF JO finding solutions.

This is because it means not only producing multi-disciplinary research whose results are meant to be relevant – from a scientific and social point of view – but also because it means creating the right methodological and pedagogical conditions in order to help BDRVJSF BOE USBOTNJU UIJT TBNF LOPXMFEHF 1SPEVDF o USBOTNJU o BDRVJSF Researchers – teachers – students A whole university community is at the service of the challenges faced by our societies. A whole university community has been conceived to be the motor for the development of these societies. 5IJT FYQMBJOT XIZ UIF +5% QMBZ B TQFDJBM SPMF As well as constituting the simple coming UPHFUIFS PG IVNBO SFTPVSDFT BOE UIVT PG DPNQFUFODFT BOE FYQFSUJTF BOE BT XFMM as being the simple pooling of financial SFTPVSDFT IPXFWFS JNQPSUBOU UIFTF SFTPVSDFT might be for the continuation of these annual NFFUJOHT UIJT OFX FEJUJPO DPOTUJUVUFT JO NZ PQJOJPO UIF QFSGFDU PQQPSUVOJUZ UP UBLF TUPDL PG QBTU FYQFSJFODF PG XIBU IBT BOE TUJMM does contribute to the success of this social TDJFODFT TVNNFS TDIPPM BOE UIVT EFÜOF OFX QFSTQFDUJWFT XIJMF CFBSJOH JO NJOE B GBNPVT 7JFUOBNFTF TBZJOH i"MXBZT CVJME upon what is unchanged in order to face up to changes of situation�.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

5IF SFHJPOBM PรณDF PG UIF "HFODZ XIJDI UIJT ZFBS DFMFCSBUFT UIF th anniversary of its QSFTFODF JO 7Jฬ U /BN JT DVSSFOUMZ EFรถOJOH JUT OFYU GPVS ZFBS QSPHSBNNF XIJDI XJMM DPNF JOUP GPSDF JO +BOVBSZ 0OF PG UIF NBKPS BYFT PG UIJT OFX QSPHSBNNF XJMM CF UP support the member establishments of the Agency in their endeavours to set up doctoral TDIPPMT 5IF +5% XJMM DFSUBJOMZ DPOTUJUVUF POF PG UIF LFZ FMFNFOUT PG UIF QSPKFDU XF XJMM QVU JO QMBDF *U JT B QSPHSBNNF UIBU IBT been conceived to be essentially multiEJTDJQMJOBSZ B QSPHSBNNF XIPTF WPDBUJPO JT UP CF SFHJPOBM 'JOBMMZ JU JT B QSPHSBNNF whose development will be based upon partnerships.

"OE JU JT FYBDUMZ UIJT TQJSJU PG QBSUOFSTIJQ that is driving more than ever the Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie. 5P DPODMVEF * TIPVME MJLF UP XJTI ZPV FWFSZ TVDDFTT JO ZPVS XPSL UIBU CFHJOT UPEBZ success in the diversity of the proposed NFUIPEPMPHJDBM BQQSPBDIFT TVDDFTT JO UIF EJWFSTJUZ PG EJTDJQMJOBSZ รถFMET NPCJMJTFE BOE รถOBMMZ TVDDFTT JO UIF EJWFSTJUZ PG BWFOVFT PG SFรธFDUJPO UP CF FYQMPSFE Thank you.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

.BQ -PDBMJTBUJPO

Limits of provinces !"#$%&'$()**$+,",)'-

Source : Tomorrow Media.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

1BSU Plenary Sessions

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

4PDJBM $POTUSVDUJPOT PG̓%BOHFS " 'FX 6TFT PG UIF /PUJPO PG 3JTL BOE .JTGPSUVOF in the Social Sciences Vanessa Manceron – Centre for Ethnology and Comparative Sociology, CNRS

When faced with the brutal or recurrent NJTGPSUVOFT CZ XIJDI UIFZ BSF BòFDUFE o̓ JMMOFTT BDDJEFOUT WJDJTTJUVEFT DBUBTUSP phes â€“ communities and individuals begin UP RVFTUJPO UIF GVUVSF BOE UP NFBTVSF UIF threat and impact of adversity. Concern about danger and catastrophe is neither recent nor limited to certain places; it is a TIBSFE FYQFSJFODF PG GSBHJMJUZ BOE NJTGPSUVOF )PXFWFS UIF XPSE iEBOHFSw XIPTF etymology means “to be at the mercy of an FWFOUw PS iCF EPNJOBUFE CZ TPNFPOFw TIPVME OPU CF DPOGVTFE XJUI UIF XPSE iSJTLw XIJDI signifies more the notions of probability and foreseeability. Risk is the specific way of constructing and perceiving its threat and its advent that has progressively imposed itself on industrial societies from the beginning PG UIF JOEVTUSJBM FSB UIF th th centuries

1FSFUUJ 8BUFM 5IJT OPUJPO UIVT IBT B IJTUPSZ UIBU UIF TPDJBM TDJFODFT IBWF TFJ[FE upon as it allows us to account for the emergence of a certain conception of danger that today constitutes a distinctive trait of DPOUFNQPSBSZ TPDJFUJFT DPNNPOMZ SFGFSSFE UP BT iSJTL TPDJFUJFTw GPMMPXJOH UIF XPSL PG UIF TPDJPMPHJTU 6MSJDI #FDL Our ever-increasingly reflective societies do indeed testify to a generalised process PG iQMBDJOH BU SJTLw UIF XPSME BOE BSF FYQFSJFODJOH B QSPMJGFSBUJPO PG OFXMZ JEFOUJĂśFE UISFBUT o UFDIOPMPHJDBM SJTLT IFBMUI SJTLT FOWJSPONFOUBM SJTLT BOE TPDJBM SJTLT *U JT UIJT VODFSUBJO XPSME UIBU UIF TPDJBM sciences attempt to describe and DIBSBDUFSJTF $BMMPO BOE -BTDPVNFT *O PSEFS UP XSJUF BCPVU UIJT SFTFBSDIFST TPDJPMPHJTUT PS BOUISPQPMPHJTUT TUVEZ SJTL BT

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

B DVMUVSF JODPSQPSBUFE CZ JOEJWJEVBMT UBLF an interest in the way social perception of SJTL JT DVMUVSBMMZ EFUFSNJOFE BOBMZTF UIF TPDJBM JOFRVBMJUJFT BOE JOKVTUJDFT UIBU SJTL NBOBHFNFOU SFWFBMT PS DSZTUBMMJTFT BOE BMTP describe the social responses and misfortune management systems once the crisis has BQQFBSFE PS UIF FWFOU IBT UBLFO QMBDF BT is the case in catastrophes. Social sciences contribute in a useful way to throwing light upon the contemporary issues linked to risk BOE DBUBTUSPQIFT BOE UIJT JT EPOF BDDPSEJOH UP TPDJBM DPOUFYUT BOE UIF UZQF PG EBOHFS DPODFSOFE * TIBMM VTF UIJT QMFOBSZ TFTTJPO UP RVFTUJPO UIF QMBDF PDDVQJFE CZ UIF OPUJPO PG risk and the way we deal with misfortune in social sciences and in the societies we study. We shall first lay down some foundations for the notion of risk in order to attempt to define BOE DJSDVNTDSJCF JU UIFO CSJFøZ PCTFSWF IPX UIF TPDJBM TDJFODFT BOE NPSF QBSUJDVMBSMZ DVMUVSBM BOUISPQPMPHZ IBWF EFBMU XJUI UIJT SFTFBSDI EPNBJO BOE ÜOBMMZ UISPVHI UIF TUVEZ PG BWJBO øV HJWF BO in situ FYBNQMF PG B QPTTJCMF DPPSEJOBUJPO CFUXFFO SFTFBSDI an unfortunate event and the social groups UIBU FYQFSJFODF BOE UBML BCPVU JU 5IJT DBTF study will focus on the perceptions of and EJòFSFOUJBUFE SFTQPOTFT UP UIJT FWFOU JO France within rural and urban groups.

1.1.1. Identifying Threats 5IF OPUJPO PG SJTL IBT TFWFSBM EJòFSFOU ĂśFMET PG TJHOJĂśDBODF UIBU PG UIF VOGPSFTFFO (an undetermined future that presents particular problems concerning what we LOPX UIBU PG HBNCMJOH DIBODF EFTUJOZ or randomness (fortunate or unfortunate DJSDVNTUBODFT UIBU̓ BòFDU BO JOEJWJEVBM T PS UIF DPNNVOJUZ T EFTUJOZ UIBU PG UIF IB[BSE UIBU JOUFSSVQUT̓ UIF SFHVMBS øPX PG FYJTUFODF

and the idea humans have of an established GVUVSF B CSFBLJOH QPJOU B TPNFUJNFT CSVUBM and irreversible change). (FOFSBMMZ SJTL NBZ SFMBUF UP SBOEPNOFTT BOE may be perceived as the missing link in a given DIBJO PG DBVTBMJUZ UIBU DSFBUFT PGUFO JO FYDFTT disorder and unforeseeability. A random event may be imputed to chance (indetermination) PS UP DBVTBMJUJFT PG B EJòFSFOU OBUVSF EJWJOF JOUFSWFOUJPO QIZTJDBM BTUSPMPHJDBM CJPMPHJDBM QIFOPNFOB FUD "MUIPVHI FYQFSJFODF PG adversity and uncertainty is common to all TPDJFUJFT UIF DPODFQUVBM GSBNFXPSLT UIBU BMMPX VT UP EFTDSJCF UIFTF QIFOPNFOB make them intelligible and provide answers UP UIFN BSF UIVT FYUSFNFMZ WBSJFE GSPN POF society to another. %JWJOBUJPO GPS FYBNQMF JT B XBZ PG understanding the unknown that is QBSUJDVMBSMZ XJEFTQSFBE JO UIF XPSME *U JT B theory of knowledge that aims to understand UIF TFDSFU QBSU PG UIF XPSME FWFSZUIJOH UIBU FTDBQFT IVNBO LOPXMFEHF BMM FWFOUT UIBU CZ BDDJEFOU BSF NZTUFSJPVT PS JOBDDFTTJCMF UP IVNBO VOEFSTUBOEJOH #PUU�SP *U produces beliefs that establish a link between UIF SBOEPN BOE UIF JOWJTJCMF UIBU XFBWF connections between the physicality of the world (the one we recognise through our senses) and interiority (that which is JNNBUFSJBM BOE JOWJTJCMF TVDI BT TQJSJU WJUBM GPSDF UIF TPVM EJWJOJUZ FUD %JWJOBUJPO SFQSFTFOUT B SBUJPOBMF JO XIJDI UIF XPSME DBOOPU CF FYQMBJOFE CZ JUTFMG PS CZ JUT PSJHJOT PS CZ UIF XBZ JU XPSLT BOE XIJDI UIVT FYDMVEFT SBOEPNOFTT GSPN UIF FYQMJDBUPSZ weft of events. 4DJFOUJÜD FQJTUFNPMPHZ PCFZT B EJòFSFOU rationality. The world is only known when JU JT FNQUJFE PG BMM USBDFT PG JOUFOUJPOBMJUZ

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

whether divine or human. That which SFNBJOT̓ VOLOPXO PS VOGPSFTFFBCMF NZTUFSJPVT PS JOWJTJCMF JT UIF PCKFDUJĂśFE and measurable part of the world that UIF DPOTDJPVT TVCKFDU DBOOPU TVDDFFE JO understanding or accurately predicting. Randomness is integrated into the proliferation of determinisms that science DPOTUSVDUT UP FYQMBJO UIFTF QIFOPNFOB but is also something that it aspires to eliminate. The randomised graphs that NPEFM ̓ GPS FYBNQMF UIF QPTTJCMF TDFOBSJPT for the propagation of a virus are an FYFNQMBSZÍƒĂśHVSF PG UIJT NPEFM 3BOEPNOFTT FYDMVEFT GBVMU PS JOUFOUJPOBMJUZ "DDPSEJOH UP 1FSFUUJ 8BUUFM UIF UFSN iSJTLw UIBU BQQFBSFE JO *UBMZ JO UIF th century to designate maritime reefs and other QFSJMT BVHVSFE BO VOQSFDFEFOUFE IJTUPSJDBM and conceptual turning point with the implementation of an insurance system that supposes that the causes of an accident and UIF XBZ UIF XPSME XPSLT BSF FYFNQU GSPN divine design. Risk thus represents a foreseeable danger XF LOPX UIBU JU NJHIU IBQQFO BHBJOTU which we can arm ourselves as a curative or QSFWFOUJWF NFBTVSF BOE XIJDI JT LOPXO UP CF DPOUJOHFOU 'SPN UIJT QPJOU PG WJFX SJTL SFQMBDFT GPSUVOF *U JT UIF DMBTTJD QSPEVDU PG QSPCBCJMJTUJD TUBUJTUJDBM RVBOUJĂśFE TDJFOUJĂśD epistemology.

1.1.2. “Risk Societyâ€?: A Proliferation of Threats and a Socio-Political Dynamic 8F IBE UP XBJU GPS UIF th century for the notion of risk to develop to the point of characterising contemporary societies in UIF XBLF PG UIF TPDJPMPHJTUT 6MSJDI #FDL BOE "OUIPOZ (JEEFOT "DDPSEJOH UP (JEEFOT the most unusual character of modernity consists in allowing the whole of humanity UP SVO UIF HSFBUFTU PG SJTLT GSPN UIF T POXBSET UIFSF XBT B NBTTJWF HMPCBM BOE multifaceted increase in “manufacturedâ€? risks that were the product or result of human BDUJWJUJFT BOE BòFDUFE DJWJM QPQVMBUJPOT PO a huge scale. < > The contemporary period is thus characterised by an increased influence PG SJTL PO QFPQMF T MJWFT BU UIF TBNF UJNF that confidence in modern progress is eroding and that there is a proliferation of new heterogeneous ideas that contradict a science that no longer occupies the first place JU PODF EJE -ZPUBSE All sociological works highlight the tensions intrinsic to Risk Society PO UIF POF IBOE B QSPMJGFSBUJPO PG UISFBUT BOE PO UIF PUIFS TP called controlled risks that are under high TVSWFJMMBODF PO UIF POF IBOE B QFSNBOFOU RVFTU GPS TBGFUZ BOE PO UIF PUIFS HSPXJOH worry linked to doubts about the value of FYQFSUJTF BOE UIF GFFMJOH UIBU UIF UFDIOJDBM XPSME JT JODSFBTJOHMZ PQBRVF BOE EJTBTUSPVT

< > /VDMFBS BDDJEFOUT PG 5ISFF .JMFT *TMBOE PG $IFSOPCZM BOE PG 'VLVTIJNB UIF UFDIOPMPHJDBM SJTL JT BMTP DIFNJDBM 4FWFTP JO FOWJSPONFOUBM 5PSSFZ $BOZPO JO BOE "NPDP $BEJ[ JO IFBMUI SFMBUFE &4# JO BOE BWJBO øV JO FUD

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

"OE ZFU GPS #FDL UIF QSPCMFNT DBVTFE CZ techno-economic development are not new BOE XFSF BMSFBEZ JTTVFT JO UIF .JEEMF "HFT UP which the problems of public health imputed UP VSCBO QPMMVUJPO UFTUJGZ "DDPSEJOH UP #FDL what characterises Risk Society is rather “the social architecture and political dynamicâ€? of UISFBUT 4PNF SFNBSLBCMF RVBMJUJFT result from this sociological and political DIBSBDUFSJTBUJPO PG DPOUFNQPSBSZ UISFBUT - The damage that is sometimes invisible and irreversible may be minimised or dramatised according to the social definition given to it; 3JTLT SFRVJSF DBVTBM JOUFSQSFUBUJPOT UIBU BSF FYDMVTJWFMZ TJUVBUFE JO UIF EPNBJO PG TDJFOUJĂśD LOPXMFEHF *OEFFE TDJFOUJĂśD progress allows a growing awareness of the danger at the same time as an increased criticism of scientific knowledge itself; - The breaking down of threats into groups results in a partial overlap with UIF JOFRVBMJUJFT PG UIF TJUVBUJPO CFUXFFO TPDJBM TUSBUB PS CFUXFFO DPVOUSJFT CVU BMTP DPODFBMT B CPPNFSBOH FòFDU CZ øZJOH CBDL in the face of those who cause or profit from JU JOEVTUSZ GPS FYBNQMF 3JTL UIVT QSPEVDFT OFX JOFRVBMJUJFT CFUXFFO /PSUIFSO BOE Southern countries; but because of the TVQSBOBUJPOBM DIBSBDUFS PG UIFTF UISFBUT these risks may undermine the foundations of any nation-state; 5IF RVFTU GPS TBGFUZ IBT SFQMBDFE UIF VUPQJB̓ PG FRVBMJUZ " GPSN PG TPMJEBSJUZ PG GFBS JT UIVT DSFBUFE XIJDI NBZ CFDPNF a political force and legitimise a securityTUBUF "U UIF TBNF UJNF SJTL DSFBUFT OFX EJòFSFOUJBUJPOT BOE PQQPTJUJPOT XJUIJO TPDJFUZ CFUXFFO UIPTF XIP BSF FYQPTFE UP JU BOE UIPTF XIP QSPĂśU GSPN JU CFUXFFO those who decide the definitions of risk

BOE UIPTF XIP BSF TVCKFDUFE UP UIFN Risk Society JT UIVT B TPDJFUZ PG TDJFODF media and information within which it is OPU TP NVDI B RVFTUJPO PG BSNJOH POFTFMG against the penury managed within the GSBNFXPSL PG UIF OBUJPO TUBUFT BT JU JT PG arming oneself against the danger within globalised systems of alliance.

1.1.3. Cultural Theories of Risk and Social Perceptions of Danger Social sciences are generally called upon to HJWF UIFJS PQJOJPO GPMMPXJOH QVCMJD EFCBUFT that is to say to deliver analyses concerning the population or the public “in order to understand their perception, the reasons for their concern, their belief in rumours, their propensity to panic, etc.w (JMCFSU 5IFTF FYQFDUBUJPOT BSF CBTFE VQPO UIF MBSHFMZ TIBSFE DPOWJDUJPO UIBU UIFSF FYJTUT PO UIF POF IBOE BO PCKFDUJWF SJTL B SFBM NFBTVSBCMF BOE UBOHJCMF POF BOE PO UIF PUIFS B TVCKFDUJWF risk (the perceptions and ideas that are forged from what is real). On the strength PG UIJT EJTUJODUJPO QFSDFQUJPOT XJMM CF BO JNQFEJNFOU UP FòPSUT UP VOEFSTUBOE BOE PCKFDUJWJTF UIF SJTLT SVO UIFZ XJMM CF QBSU PG the domain of belief as opposed to that of knowledge. 0OF PG UIF DIBMMFOHFT GPS TPDJBM TDJFODFT BOE NPSF QBSUJDVMBSMZ BOUISPQPMPHZ IBT CFFO UP take people’s perceptions of risk out of the ethno-centred register of superstition and irrationality in which they are often mired. The anthropologists whose work consists in demonstrating the coherence principles of epistemologies in non-modern societies have shown that fear of danger is governed by specific socio-cultural rationalities and logic.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

The work of Mary Douglas and Aaron 8JMEBWTLJ Risk and Culture JMMVTUSBUFT XFMM this paradigm of the cultural determination of risk perception. The authors have distinguished four ideal-types based upon the more or less class-ranked and partitioned DIBSBDUFS PG TPDJBM HSPVQT PG XIJDI * DBO IFSF CSJFøZ SFNJOE ZPV PG B GFX DIBSBDUFSJTUJDT - The hierarchical structure XIPTF BSDIFUZQF JT CVSFBVDSBDZ JT DIBSBDUFSJTFE CZ B IJHI MFWFM PG EJòFSFOUJBUJPO PG SPMFT BOE TUBUVT and by its adherence to certain values such as order and stability. We observe here a UFOEFODZ UP SFTQFDU PĂłDJBM LOPXMFEHF UIBU is held to be legitimate and an aversion to the risks to which we respond by regulation DPNQVMTPSZ "*%4 UFTUJOH WBDDJOBUJPO GPS øV QBOEFNJDT FUD 1MBZFST IBWF B tendency to consider nature as being SPCVTU VQ UP DFSUBJO UISFTIPMET CFZPOE which the damage might result in a longUFSN EJTFRVJMJCSJVN 5IJT PQJOJPO KVTUJĂśFT a system of control to monitor industrial development without forbidding it; - The individualistic trend XIPTF BSDIFUZQF JT the capitalist market of private enterprises. )FSF VODFSUBJO TJUVBUJPOT BSF OPU OFDFTTBSJMZ BWPJEFE BT SJTL NBZ BMTP DPOTUJUVUF BO opportunity to prove one’s skills. We PCTFSWF IFSF B QSFGFSFODF GPS QSFWFOUJPO the notion of individual responsibility and a mistrust of rules that are always deemed to CF DVNCFSTPNF *UT NFNCFST IBWF RVJUF B USVTU PG PĂłDJBM LOPXMFEHF BOE FYQFSUT CVU are also fond of the latest technology and JOOPWBUJPO /BUVSF JT QFSDFJWFE BT CFJOH B SPCVTU BOE SFTJMJFOU TZTUFN XIJDI JO UIF DBTF PG EJTFRVJMJCSJVN SFUVSOT UP JUT PSJHJOBM TUBUF CZ PòTFUUJOH FòFDUT - The egalitarian trend concerns social HSPVQT UIBU BSF SBUIFS DPNQBSUNFOUBMJTFE

TVDI BT NJMJUBOU HSPVQT USBEF VOJPOT OFJHICPVSIPPE HSPVQT FUD 5IFJS representatives hold dear to egalitarian values and the feeling of belonging to the community. We can observe here a tendency for groups like these to mobilise their own sources of knowledge or test public decisions concerning risk. These QMBZFST XIP BSF QBSUJDVMBSMZ TFOTJUJWF UP UFDIOPMPHJDBM BOE FDPMPHJDBM SJTLT TIBSF the idea that nature is fragile and that its FRVJMJCSJVN DBO CF QMBDFE JO QFSJM JO B dramatic and irreversible way; 'JOBMMZ UIF marginal trend DPODFSOT UIPTF XIP BSF FYDMVEFE PS JO B QPTJUJPO of social vulnerability or subordination in relation to the rest of society. This group is characterised by an absence of clear ideas concerning risks often coupled with little access to information. The latter are often risk takers and have a fatalistic approach to NJTGPSUVOF XJUI UIF JEFB UIBU OBUVSF MJLF destiny) is whimsical and that mastering it is an illusion. *O UIJT UZQF PG DVMUVSBM UZQPMPHZ FMBCPSBUFE CZ . %PVHMBT BOE " 8JMEBWTLJ UIF UISFBU BOE FWJMT BòFDUJOH JOEJWJEVBMT BSF B NBUUFS GPS HSPVQT PG TQFDJBMJTUT BOE FYQFSUT CVU UIFZ BSF OFWFS KVTU UIBU JOUFSQSFUBUJPO JT BMXBZT shared or debated within social communities and often throws light upon the more or less conflicting relationship that individuals have XJUI UIF SFTU PG TPDJFUZ "VHF BOE )FS[JMDI

1.1.4. For an Anthropology of Misfortune Societies confronted with adversity FYQFSJFODF B EVFM UFNQPSBMJUZ UIBU PG CFGPSF UIF SJTL UIF EBOHFS UIF QFSJM UIF UISFBU PS UIF BOUJDJQBUFE GVUVSF BOE UIBU

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

PG BGUFS UIF FWFOU UIBU IBT UBLFO QMBDF UIF DBUBTUSPQIF UIF NJTGPSUVOF UIF BĂľJDUJPO PS UIF FOEVSFE QBTU )PXFWFS BMUIPVHI sociology contributes greatly in the field PG SJTL BOUISPQPMPHZ FYDFMT JO UIF EPNBJO of misfortune and events that sometimes BòFDU JOEJWJEVBMT BOE IVNBO TPDJFUJFT PWFS MPOH QFSJPET BT JO UIF DBTF PG JMMOFTT OBUVSBM catastrophes or human dramas. When BOUISPQPMPHJTUT EFDJEF UP TUVEZ UIFTF FWFOUT UIFZ HJWF BDDPVOU PG UIF WJDUJNT FYQFSJFODF PG UIF UVSNPJM PG UIFJS PSEJOBSZ MJWFT PG UIF SFDPOTUSVDUJPO PG UIFJS FWFSZEBZ MJWFT PG UIFJS NFNPSZ PG UIF ESBNB TPDJBM QSBDUJDFT JO BĂľJDUJPO OFX JOUFSBDUJPOT UIBU BSF DSFBUFE CFUXFFO MPDBM QPQVMBUJPOT BOE UIF FYQFSUT and the dynamics created by the political and media management of the event. *O UIFJS TFNJOBM BSUJDMF +VMJFO -BOHVNJFS BOE 4BOESJOF 3FWFU HJWF B WFSZ VTFGVM review of the current state of academic work particularly focusing on anthropological approaches that have been used to BEESFTT UIF RVFTUJPO "GUFS PVUMJOJOH UIF DPOUSJCVUJPO PG PUIFS BDBEFNJD EJTDJQMJOFT such as pragmatic sociology through alert TZTUFNT $IBUFBVSBZOBVE BOE 5PSOZ geography that has carried out research into the vulnerability of social groups )FXJUI BOE QPMJUJDBM TDJFODF UIBU has addressed crisis management and the QMBZFST JOWPMWFE (JMCFSU UIF BVUIPST remind us that anthropology proposes above all to “see the catastrophe as a lived through social experience in order to ask the questions: What has been the local effect of the event? How have those affected dealt with the catastrophe?â€?.

"DDPSEJOH UP UIFTF BVUIPST UIF JOUFSFTU BOUISPQPMPHZ IBT JO UIF TVCKFDU JT OPU SFDFOU CVU JU JT EJĂłDVMU UP EJTUJOHVJTI UIF EJòFSFOU TDIPPMT BT XFMM BT UIF UIFNBUJD areas of research. They begin by speaking about research that uses the concept of adaption and which is interested in the way in which human societies adapt to EJĂłDVMU FOWJSPONFOUT UIF SFTJMJFODF BOE stability guaranteed by knowledge and by the social rules that have been produced) &WBOT 1SJUDIBSE 'JSUI "OPUIFS branch of this research area is interested in social and collective dynamics and logic of action following catastrophes (interactions XJUI IVNBO QMBZFST QPMJUJDBM JNQBDU PG management and reconstruction) (Oliver4NJUI 'BTTJO BOE 7BTRVF[ 5IF way in which societies interpret the event and give it meaning according to the culture UP XIJDI UIFZ CFMPOH JT BMTP BOBMZTFE *O ZFU BOPUIFS EJòFSFOU QFSTQFDUJWF DFSUBJO BVUIPST SBJTF RVFTUJPOT BCPVU UIF EJòFSFOU GBDUPST PG a society’s vulnerability in a given historical BOE TPDJP FDPOPNJD DPOUFYU $PQBOT 'JOBMMZ DFSUBJO SFTFBSDIFST JOWPMWFE DMBJN their work is useful for a better understanding PG UIF MPDBM DPOUFYU BOE UIF WJDUJNT QPJOUT PG view in catastrophe management. *O BOZ DBTF BOUISPQPMPHZ XPSLT BT DMPTF BT QPTTJCMF UP QFPQMF UP UIFJS MPHJD PG BDUJPO BOE JOUFSQSFUBUJPOT PG FWFOUT JO PSEFS UP VOEFSTUBOE UIFJS SBUJPOBMJUZ UIFJS JOUJNBUF PS DVMUVSBM NPUJWBUBUJPOT UIF DIBMMFOHFT in terms of social relations and human ties UP UFSSJUPSZ UP JEFOUJUZ BOE UP NFNPSZ Anthropology remains as close as possible UP UIJT FYQFSJFODF 5IJT JT XIBU XF BSF OPX going to see through the study of the avian øV DSJTJT UIBU BSPTF JO 'SBODF JO TQSJOH JO UIF -B %PNCFT SFHJPO

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

1.1.5. The Case of Avian Flu: Social Mobilisations and Plural Perceptions of the Event and its Management *O UIF QBTU BOJNBM IFBMUI XBT NPTU PGUFO defined in the rather narrow sense of the control of animal rearing diseases on a secured local or national territory. The animal IFBMUI FWFOUT PG UIF MBTU GFX ZFBST #4& GPPU BOE NPVUI EJTFBTF TXJOF GFWFS 4"34 BWJBO flu) have served to resituate the event in B HMPCBMJTFE XPSME *U JT FWJEFOU UIBU JTTVFT TVSSPVOEJOH BOJNBM IFBMUI QVCMJD IFBMUI GPPE and environment are now interconnected. The way we regard animal diseases has thus changed. Zoonoses have become political. 5XP UZQFT PG OBSSBUJWF FYJTU TJEF CZ TJEF that of the policy of states and international PSHBOJTBUJPOT XIJDI BSF PO UIF TJEF PG IFBMUI OPSNT BOE QSPQIZMBDUJD NFBTVSFT BOE UIBU PG QPMJUJDBM TVCKFDUT XIP QSPEVDF B EJòFSFOU OBSSBUJWF %JTFBTF EPFT OPU POMZ NFBO QPQVMBUJPO NBOBHFNFOU UBSHFUFE measures and risk calculation; it is also linked UP FYQFSJFODF QFSDFQUJPOT BOE UIF TZTUFNT of relationship in force in the societies DPODFSOFE )FODF UIF QPTTJCMF UFOTJPOT UIBU FYJTU CFUXFFO UIF PCKFDUJWJTFE SFBMJUZ of epidemiologists or economists and the way it is translated into representations and actions. *U JT JO UIF öFME PG FYQFSJFODF PG QFSDFQUJPOT BOE BDUJPO UIBU * BN HPJOH UP QMBDF NZTFMG *U JT BO JOUFSFTUJOH NPNFOU GPS BO FUIOPMPHJTU as once the virus has penetrated the human XPSME LOPXMFEHF QFSDFQUJPOT BOE BDUJPO levels proliferate as fast as social groups rally together.

)VNBO TPDJFUJFT GBDFE XJUI EJTFBTF BSF always the theatre of a double mental PQFSBUJPO PO UIF POF IBOE JEFOUJGZJOH UIF TPVSDF BOE PSJHJO PG UIF EJTFBTF BOE PO UIF PUIFS LFFQJOH JU BU CBZ 8JUI [PPOPTFT UIJT RVFTUJPO JT BTLFE JO B TQFDJöD BOE BDVUF XBZ since it brings into play the possibilty of a macabre trans-species alliance. *O 'SBODF UIF SFBDUJPOT UP UIF BWJBO øV DSJTJT XIJDI BSPTF JO JO UIF TQSJOH PG JO UIF %PNCFT SFHJPO XFSF OPU VOBOJNPVT 8BZT PG making sense of the pathological called upon the specific relationships humans maintain XJUI FBDI PUIFS CVU BMTP XJUI BOJNBMT BOE more generally the environment. Which animals and humans are to be protected BOE XIJDI BSF UP CF QSPUFDUFE BHBJOTU *O BMM DBTFT UIF WJSBM PSJHJO JT JEFOUJöFE BT GBS BT possible from oneself as a figure of otherness. 5IJT JT UIF MJOF * BN HPJOH UP GPMMPX CZ HJWJOH details of the respective logic and reactions of UIF UXP QPQVMBUJPOT UIBU PG UIF SVSBM GBSNFST BOE UIBU PG DJUJ[FOT JOWPMWFE JO UIF QSPUFDUJPO of the environment and farm animals. Ruralist Logic Dombes is a wetland area to the north of UIF DJUZ PG -ZPO JO UIF FBTUFSO QBSU PG 'SBODF not far from the Swiss border. The region is dotted with ponds used for pisciculture and for hunting waterfowl as it is an important wintering area for migratory birds. Poultry GBSNJOH JT USBEJUJPOBMMZ PQFO BJS CVU FWFSZ commune has one or two enclosed breeding QMBDFT 8IFO ) / XBT EFUFDUFE JO BO industrial turkey farm and its presence was certified in the wild fauna of the ponds TFWFSBM IVOESFE TXBOT BOE EVDLT UIF region was submitted to far-reaching health measures that paralysed it at an economic MFWFM GPS OFBSMZ TJY NPOUIT

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Map

2

The French Region of Dombes Affected by Avian Flu (H5N1) in 2006: Health Zoning and the Fight Against Contamination

Source: Newspaper “Le Parisien�, 18 February, 2006.

"MM TFDUPST PG MPDBM MJGF XFSF BòFDUFE XJUI B QFSDJQUJCMF GBMM JO UPVSJTU BDUJWJUJFT IVOUJOH BOE BHSJDVMUVSBM BOE QJTDJDVMUVSBM JODPNFT following the implementation of road barriers UP TVSSPVOE UIF GPDBM QPJOU UIF CBO PO BDDFTT UP UIF SFHJPO T QPOET UIF DPOĂśOFNFOU PG QPVMUSZ BOE HBNF GPXM CSFE PVUTJEF BOE̓ UIF CBO PO TFMMJOH QPVMUSZ .BODFSPO 5IF GFBS PG B GVUVSF CBOLSVQUDZ JG UIF TJUVBUJPO DPOUJOVFE GVFMMFE MPDBM DSJUJDJTN of the health measures. The latter were KVEHFE UP CF DSFBUJOH NPSF NJTGPSUVOF

UIBO UIF̓EJTFBTF̓JUTFMG CVU XIBU JT NPSF UIF means to eradicate the virus recommended by the public authorities were discredited. The problem principally stemmed from UIF GBDU UIBU UIF IFBMUI NFBTVSFT XIJDI were unable to work on an individual and DPSQPSBUF MFWFM XFSF̓ BQQMJFE PO B XJEFS TQBUJBM TDBMF UIVT BòFDUJOH B MBSHF QPQVMBUJPO This method of all-encompassing manageNFOU IBE UIF FòFDU PG FSBTJOH BMM OPUJPO PG UIF QFSTPO XIP JT QSJNBSJMZ NPCJMJTFE GSPN the very first moment we are confronted by UIF WJSVT *U JT BMTP DIBSBDUFSJTFE CZ JUT XBZ

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

of dealing with humans and animals on UIF TBNF MFWFM BT UIF QPUFOUJBM SFDFQUBDMFT and transmitters of the virus. The frontiers between species transgressed by the virus and fears for individual health have been somewhat blurred by the biological rationality of the measures. The second problematic point concerns UIF BNCJWBMFODF PG UIF IFBMUI [POJOH UIBU may both designate a space in danger (to be protected) and a dangerous space UP CF DPOUBJOFE #Z EFÜOJUJPO B GSPOUJFS TFQBSBUFT CVU BMTP DIBSBDUFSJTFT UIF TQBDF JU DJSDPOTDSJCFT *U JO GBDU TFUT VQ B UPQPT CBTFE upon the opposition between the diseased (within the circle) and the healthy (outside). *O UIF NJOET PG UIPTF XJUIJO UIJT IBT DSFBUFE GPSNT PG FYPHFOPVT TUJHNBUJTBUJPO 5IF JEFOUJÜDBUJPO PG IVNJE [POFT BT CFJOH BSFBT of risk or indeed the choice of speaking about B DPOUBNJOBUFE TQFDJFT SBUIFS UIBO B TQFDJFT JO EBOHFS DPOUSJCVUFE UP UIF DPOTUVDUJPO PG an impaired status and fuelled the feeling of CFJOH IFME BU CBZ JO PSEFS UP QSPUFDU FYUFSJPS populations and species still pure of any DPOUBNJOBUJPO .BODFSPO The third problematic point is linked to the EJòFSFOUJBUFE USFBUNFOU PG GBSN BOJNBMT BOE so-called wild ones. While chickens were DPOÜOFE BOE FWFO TMBVHIUFSFE FWFO XIFO IFBMUIZ OP NFBTVSF XBT UBLFO DPODFSOJOH contaminated birds circulating above the roadblocks that were contaminating the territory with their poisoned droppings. 'SPN UIF QPJOU PG WJFX PG SVSBM JOIBCJUBOUT the health measures favour an inversion of UIF IJFSBSDIZ PG JOUFSFTUT JO GBWPVS PG BO FDP centred world rather than a human-centred one.

5IJT JOUFSQSFUBUJPO JT FYQMJDJUMZ CBTFE VQPO assigning to wild birds the responsibility for being the vector of the virus. This type of charge can only be understood when DPOUFYUVBMJTFE JO UIF TPDJBM TZTUFN JO XIJDI it is formed at a given period. The avian flu that poultry producers in the Dombes region IBE FYQFSJFODFE JO UIF T IBE BU UIBU QFSJPE CFFO CMBNFE PO FYUSB MPDBM USBEF DJSDVJUT PG POF EBZ PME DIJDLT 5IJT UJNF UIJT was not the case. The new interconnection established by the epidemiology between wild and farm birds opened a new range of possibilities that was given precedence BT B SFMFWBOU FYQMBOBUPSZ QSJODJQMF *G JU IBT CFFO BEPQUFE JU JT CFDBVTF JU VQEBUFT TPDJP environmental problems and mobilises the cognitive categories that have meaning in contemporary rural societies. *O UIF %PNCFT SFHJPO UIF XJME GBSNFE opposition is inscribed in the founding narratives of local society and forms one of the substrata of socio-genesis. The “cultureâ€? there is one of the proactive cultivation of the FOWJSPONFOU FTQFDJBMMZ UIF QPOET JO PSEFS UP QSFWFOU TUBHOBOU XBUFS TQPOUBOFPVT vegetation and the harmful fauna associated with disease and social disorder regaining UIF VQQFS IBOE 5IF QPMJUJDBM JOKVODUJPO UP QSPUFDU CJPEJWFSTJUZ JO IVNJE [POFT XBT UIVT assimilated to a serious disruption of local ecology. *O UIJT DPOUFYU BWJBO øV XIJDI BSSJWFE B GFX months after the implementation of a binding FOWJSPONFOUBM QSPHSBNNF DPVME OPU CF TFFO as contingent. The environment had become UPYJD BOE IBSNGVM BOE BMMPDIUIPOPVT BOJNBM TQFDJFT TVDI BT UIF TXBO IBE QSPMJGFSBUFE without anthropic monitoring.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Photo 1

Ruralist Interpretation: The Virus Stems from Wild and Allochthonous Fauna

Photo courtesy of Vanessa Manceron.

*O PUIFS UFSNT UIF TXBO UIBU JT QSPUFDUFE by environmental laws is a vector of avian øV XIJMF IVNBOT XIP DBSF GPS EPNFTUJD animals and who are the guarantors of the DVMUJWBUJPO̓ GFSUJMJUZ PG UIF FOWJSPONFOU BSF VOKVTUMZ FYQPTFE FWFO EJTRVBMJĂśFE JO UIFJS enterprise to humanise and socialise the world. ) / JT UIVT BO FOUJUZ UIBU UBLFT PO B meaning in a specific referential system. When faced with a transmission logic that QSPDFFET JO DPOUJOVVN JEFBT PQFSBUF through the classification and the reordering PG TVCWFSUFE MPDBM DBUFHPSJFT #FUXFFO GFBUIFSFE BOJNBMT EJTUJODUJPOT PG PQFSBUJOH BSF JNQMFNFOUFE BOE BSF MJOLFE UP UIF type of relationship that is established with them and to the distance at which they are

IFME 5IF TXBO B QMFBTBOU CJSE JO BO VSCBO FOWJSPONFOU JT UP UIF GBNJMJBS DIJDLFO PG UIF countryside or to the not less familiar but wild XBUFSGPXM XIBU FOWJSPONFOUBM QSPUFDUJPO JT to agriculture and the countryside. The virus is an allochthon that is located both in the environment and in a part of the social body. The biological event is indeed BMXBZT FNJOFOUMZ QPMJUJDBM #Z JEFOUJGZJOH UIF OBUVSF PG UIF FWJM XF BOOPVODF BOE EFGFOE UIF QJDUVSF XF GPSN PG JUT VOJRVFOFTT BOE JUT QMBDF JO UIF DJUZ B QMBDF UIBU JT UPEBZ intrinsically linked to the relationship we have or do not have with the environment and XJUI OPO IVNBOT JODMVEJOH UIF WJSVT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Environmentalist Logic #SFFEJOH BOJNBMT QMBDFT UIF SFMBUJPOTIJQ in the register of protection and care. #FZPOE UIF̓ ĂśOBODJBM MPTT JODVSSFE BOZ TMBVHIUFS PG̓ QPVMUSZ PS FQJ[PPUJD JT FYQFSJFODFE BT B GBJMVSF̓ CZ GBSNFST JO WJFX of their competences and know-how. 8IFO UIF IFBMUI BVUIPSJUJFT JOUFSWFOF they find themselves in addition deprived of their means of action. The health and epidemiological logic is in some way blind and deaf to farmers’ voices and the type of knowledge they have developed through contact with animals. 8F DBO BEE UP UIJT ĂśSTU EJĂłDVMUZ B IFBWZ SFTQPOTJCJMJUZ UIFZ NVTU CFBS HVBSBOUFFJOH to not harm their fellow countrymen’s health. Society as a whole today demands that they answer fully for their practices. )FBMUI DSJTFT FYBDFSCBUF UIJT SJHIU UP NPOJUPS to the point of sometimes creating a veritable economy of suspicion and resentment. This reference to health crises seems to go hand in hand with the increasingly heavy criticism aimed at industrial breeding. This criticism comes especially from environmental or dissenting networks in urban areas. The NBKPSJUZ USFOE DPOTJTUT JO QMBDJOH UIF CMBNF GPS UIF WJSVT PO CBUUFSZ DIJDLFO GBSNJOH CVU even more on human practices. The virus is no longer veritably situated in the environment. *U IBT GPVOE JUT raison d’être JO UIF JTTVF BOE KVTU BT XJME SFMBUJPOTIJQ JO UIF TFOTF PG foreign and allochthon) that the man of the field creates with nature and animals with the complicit support of the liberal capitalist system. 5XP EJòFSFOU DVSSFOUT IBWF DPNF UP MJHIU 0O UIF POF IBOE UIPTF XIP EFOPVODF industrial breeding and place their nature-

centered point of view in a nature/artifice PQQPTJUJPO 0O UIF PUIFS UIFSF BSF UIPTF NPSF JO UIF NJOPSJUZ XIP EFOPVODF animal living conditions and the way they are slaughtered. They defend an animalcentred point of view and place themselves in a domination/violence and compassion/ DPOTJEFSBUJPO PQQPTJUJPO *O UIF UXP DBTFT we are confronted with a political ethics that often disregards a concrete and everyday relationship with animals that would allow them to thrive. *O UIF ĂśSTU DBTF JO QPJOU UIF FOWJSPONFOUBMJTUT criticisms concerned the confinement policy promoted by the health authorities that presented industrial norms and conditions as CFJOH UIF NPTU FòFDUJWF SBNQBSU BHBJOTU UIF TQSFBEJOH PG UIF WJSVT )ZQFS EPNFTUJDBUJPO would be thus legitimised by hygienist BSHVNFOUT UP UIF EFUSJNFOU PG UIF NPSF “naturalâ€? open-air poultry farms that were JOKVTUMZ TBDSJĂśDFE The inversion seemed immoral to them for TFWFSBM SFBTPOT JU EFFQFOFE UIF JOFRVBMJUJFT between farmers and the country (social KVTUJDF BOE JU QSPNPUFE B CSFFEJOH model that has nonetheless created the ideal conditions for the appearance and transmission of the virus; it supports the sector’s economic interests to the detriment PG UIF FOWJSPONFOUBM RVBMJUZ UIBU TBGFHVBSET consumer health in the long term. This naturalist position implicitly associates the virus (of animals and humans) with the artificialisation of our relationship with the MJWJOH .BOJQVMBUFE NFDIBOP NPSQIJTFE animals that have been transformed into commodities have fallen “illâ€? and their despised naturalness comes back like a boomerang in the form of an incontrolable

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

viral load. The origin of the virus cannot be JO XJME PS TJNQMZ EPNFTUJDBUFE GBVOB *U JT found in artefact-animals that have become VOTBGF UP FBU BOE MJWF BMPOHTJEF BT UIFZ BSF totally foreign to the natural continuum that environmentalists are fond of and that technology has broken. The viral threat is thus here still on the side of barbarity. This KVTUJöFT JO SFUVSO UIF OFFE UP SFFTUBCMJTI UIF GSPOUJFS CFUXFFO OBUVSF BOE BSUJöDF UIFSFCZ promoting a less intrusive relationship with BOJNBMT JO PSEFS UP TPMWF UIF QSPCMFNT resulting from the transgression of this principle. Animalist Logic *O UIF TFDPOE DBTF JO QPJOU DPOUFTUBUJPO comes from a social group militating to EFGFOE QSPEVDUJPO BOJNBMT FJUIFS UP öHIU GPS UIFJS XFMM CFJOH PS UP QVU BO FOE UP UIFJS TVCKVHBUJPO BOE UIFJS TMBVHIUFS GPS NFBU Animal illness is directly associated with the violence of the domestic relationship. 5P̓ EFNPOTUBUF UIJT UIF CPEJFT PG BOJNBMT BSF FWPLFE UIFJS WJTJCMF TZNQUPNT mutilation and atrophy that are linked to MJWJOH DPOEJUJPOT BOE DPOöOFNFOU UIF QBJO inflicted at the moment of slaughter. This UIVT MFBET UP B QBSBEPYJDBM EFöOJUJPO PG UIF farm that is not for taking care of animals and LFFQJOH UIFN BMJWF CVU GPS NBLJOH UIFN JMM and slaughtering them. Avian flu is thus in TPNF XBZ KVTU B GPSFTFFBCMF BWBUBS PG UIF horror of breeding production animals in general and about which no one pays any BUUFOUJPO BDDFQU JO UIF DBTF PG [PPOPTFT 5IFSF IBT UIVT CFFO B EVFM BNCJWBMFOU SFBDUJPO UP BWJBO øV PO UIF POF IBOE DFSUBJO RVJUF SFGPSNJTU HSPVQT EFöOFE UIF FWFOU BT B iIVNBOP DFOUSFEw QTZDIPTJT XIJDI HFOFSBUFE B QBSPYZTNBM BOE PGUFO

VTFMFTT JODSFBTF JO BOJNBM TVòFSJOH 5IFZ speak about the irrational fears that led UP UIF BCBOEPOJOH PG QFUT TVDI BT DBUT about the opportunism that allowed NVOJDJQBM BVUIPSJUJFT UP HFU SJE PG QJHFPOT and countryfolk to cull protected species. 'JOBMMZ UIFZ BSHVF UIBU UIF NBTTJWF BOE cruel slaughter of poultry is the result of the irresponsibility of the Western autorities that QSFGFSSFE UP CVZ NBTLT BOE EPTFT PG WBDDJOF SBUIFS UIBO TIPXJOH JOUFSFTU JO B QSFWFOUJWF NBOOFS GPS UIF JNQSPWFNFOU PG IFBMUI conditions in the East. 0O UIF PUIFS IBOE DFSUBJO NPSF SBEJDBMJTFE HSPVQT PQQPTFE UP NFBU GBSNJOH CPUI GPS TUSBUFHJD BOE JEFPMPHJDBM SFBTPOT TBX BWJBO øV BT B TBMVUBSZ BQPDPMZQTF iWe are all going to die if you don’t stop eating meat!”. The TVòFSJOH BOE NBTTJWF TMBVHIUFS PG QSPEVDUJPO BOJNBMT IPXFWFS SFWPMUJOH JU NBZ CF UIVT BVHVST B CFUUFS GVUVSF BT JG UIF XBLJOH ESFBN of a world without the confinement and slaughter of animals had never been so near. ) / IBT TIBLFO VQ UIF CSFFEJOH TZTUFN PO CPUI BO FDPOPNJD BOE NPSBM MFWFM ) / IBT led to the ban on hunting live ducks and has XFBLFOFE PQFO BJS QPVMUSZ GBSNJOH ) / has provoked a stricter monitoring of the USBóDLJOH PG FYPUJD CJSET UIF DMPTVSF PG CJSE QBSLT BOE NBSLFUT UIF CBOOJOH PG DPDL öHIUT TUSJDUFS SVMFT GPS [PPT FUD ) / IBT UIVT temporarily achieved what militants have struggled to achieve. The animalist position does not make any EJTUJDUJPO CFUXFFO BOJNBMT VOMJLF UIF PUIFS UXP NPEFMT *U FTUBCMJTIFT B GPSN PG POUPMPHJDBM̓ QSPYJNJUZ XJUI UIF OPO human kingdom that is not indebted to the domestication or the naturalisation of the FOWJSPONFOU CVU UP DPNQBTTJPO BOE QJUZ *U GPMMPXT UIBU UIF QFSDFQUJPO PG UIF WJSVT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

is moving further and further away from any biological referent and has risen to the status of a moral agent that is both vengeful and symptomatic of human barbarity. 5IF iXJMEw WJSVT IFSF FNBOBUFT FYDMVTJWFMZ GSPN UIF IVNBO "OE VOMJLF UIF UXP PUIFS NPEFMT JU JT OPU CFDBVTF PUIFS NFO TLFX UIF SFTQFDUJWF JEFBT UIBU FBDI PG VT IBT PG OBUVSF

Table

1

Conclusion 4PDJBM QFSDFQUJPOT PG UIF ) / WJSVT DBOOPU thus be placed in the same referential systems.

Summary Table of the Three Ways of Interpreting the Causes of the Virus and the Management of the Health Crisis

Ruralism Wild and allochthonous fauna (exotic animals) Categories Allochtonous/local Wild/domestic Conflict Disorder in the environment Environmental conflict Social Otherness Environmentalism Viral Source

Reactions to Health Management

but because animals and the environment BSF OFJUIFS EPNFTUJDBUFE OPS XJME OFJUIFS OBUVSBM OPS BSUJĂśDJBM CVU TJNQMZ BMJWF

Environmentalism Industrial breeding and commercial circuits (artefact animals) Natural/artificial

Animalism Breeding conditions (captive and mistreated animals) Cruelty/compassion

Disorder in farms Technical controversies

Disorder in relationship with animals Moral debate Production and consumption of meat - Increase in animal deaths and suffering - Health management opaque in Asia - Salutary apocalypse: Breeding system in crisis

Industry and capitalism

- Territorial dispossession - Confinement mesures - Deprivation of means of as a promotion of the action - Stigmatisation industry - Inversion of interests - Sacrifice of small farms (chicken/swan ; - Inversion of interests humans/non humans) (artificial chicken/ natural chicken)

Source: Author’s construction.

The rationalities at work vary significantly depending on the type of relationships and values at stake in our relationship with BOJNBMT BOE UIF FOWJSPONFOU )PXFWFS JO BMM DBTFT UIF WJSBM PSJHJO JT CBOJTIFE UP B XPSME PG PUIFSOFTT BT JG UP LFFQ JU BU B TBGFS EJTUBODF CVU FTQFDJBMMZ CFDBVTF [PPOPTFT challenge the place we occupy in the human

BOE OPO IVNBO XPSME *U JT BMXBZT B NBUUFS of proclaiming frontiers and continuations CFUXFFO NFO XJUI UIF FOWJSPONFOU BOE BOJNBMT JO PSEFS UP SFTUBCMJTI DFSUBJO categories of organisation of the natural BOE TPDJBM XPSME UIBU BSF KVEHFE UP CF mismanaged and which make sense in a HJWFO TPDJP IJTUPSJDBM DPOUFYU

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Selective Bibliography "6(& . BOE $ )&3;-*$) Le sens du mal. Anthropologie, histoire, sociologie de la maladie &EJUJPOT EF "SDIJWFT FVSPQĂ?FOOFT .POUSFVY #"/,0'' ( Cultures of Disaster. Society and natural hazard in the Philippines 3PVUMFEHF -POEPO #&/4" " BOE & '"44*/ j -FT TDJFODFT TPDJBMFT GBDF Ă‹ M Ă?WĂ?OFNFOU x Terrain QQ ̓ #&$, 6 La sociĂŠtĂŠ du risque : sur la voie d’une autre modernitĂŠ 'MBNNBSJPO 1BSJT #055&30 + j 4ZNQUĂ™NFT TJHOFT Ă?DSJUVSFT FO .Ă?TPQPUBNJF BODJFOOF̓ x JO 7&3/"/5 + 1 - 7"/%&3.&&34$) + ̓ (&3/&5 3 $3")": - #3*440/ + ̓ $"3-*&3 % (30%;:/4,* BOE " 3&5&- -"63&/5*/ FE Divination et rationalitĂŠ &E %V 4FVJM $PMMFDUJPO j 3FDIFSDIFT "OUISPQPMPHJRVFT̓x QQ 1BSJT $"--0/ . 1 -"4$06.&4 BOE : #"35)&4 Agir dans un monde incertain. Essai sur la dĂŠmocratie technique &E ̓ EV̓ 4FVJM Paris. $)"5&"63":/"6% ' BOE % 503/: Les sombres prĂŠcurseurs. Une sociologie pragmatique de l’alerte et du risque &)&44 Paris. $01"/4 + SĂŠcheresses et famines du Sahel .BTQFSP 1BSJT %06(-"4 . BOE " 8*-%"74,: Risk and Culture: An Essay on the Selection of Technical and Environmental Dangers 6OJWFSTJUZ PG $BMJGPSOJB 1SFTT #FSLFMFZ %6$-04 % j 1VJTTBODF FU GBJCMFTTF EV DPODFQU EF SJTRVF x L’annĂŠe sociologique ̓ QQ &7"/4 13*5$)"3% & & Les Nuer. Description des modes de vie et des institutions politiques (BMMJNBSE 1BSJT

&8"-% ' L’État providence (SBTTFU FU 'BTRVFMMF 1BSJT '"44*/ % BOE 1 7"426&; i)VNB O JUBSJBO &YFQUJPO BT UIF 3VMF 5IF 1PMJ UJDBM 5IFPMPHZ PG UIF Tragedia JO 7FOF[VFMBi American Ethnologist QQ '*35) 3 Social Change in Tikopia .BDNJMMBO /FX :PSL (*%%&/4 " Les consĂŠquences de la modernitĂŠ M )BSNBUUBO $PMMFDUJPO j̓5IĂ?PSJF TPDJBMF DPOUFNQPSBJOF x 1BSJT (*-#&35 $ FE Risques collectifs et situation de crise : Apports de la recherche en Sciences Sociales - )BSNBUUBO 1BSJT )&8*55 , FE Interpretation of Calamity "MFO BOE 6OXJO #PTUPO )0''."/ 4 BOE " 0-*7&3 4.*5) FE Catastrophe and Culture. The Anthropology of Disaster 4DIPPM PG "NFSJDBO 3FTFBSDI 4BOUB 'F ,&$, ' BOE " -",0'' FE i4FOUJOFM %FWJDFTi LIMN OVNCFS -"/(6.*&3 + BOE 4 3&7&5 j 6OF ethnographie des catastrophes est-elle QPTTJCMF $PVMĂ?FT EF CPVF BV 7FOF[VFMB FU FO 'SBODF x JO # (MPXD[FXTLJ BOE " Soucaille (ed.) DĂŠsastres &E %F M )FSOF $BIJFST E BOUISPQPMPHJF TPDJBMF OÂĄÍƒ QQ 1BSJT -:05"3% + ' La condition postmoderne &E .JOVJU 1BSJT ."/$&30/ 7 j (SJQQF BWJBJSF FU EJTQVUFT DPOUBHJFVTFT -B %PNCFT EBOT MB UPVSNFOUF x Ethnologie Française 999*9 QQ ."/$&30/ 7 j -FT PJTFBVY EF M JOGPSUVOF FU MB HĂ?PHSBQIJF TBOJUBJSF MB %PNCFT FU MB HSJQQF BWJBJSF x Terrain QQ

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

."6$) $ BOE $ 1'*45&3 FE Natural Disasters, Cultural Responses: Case Studies Toward a Global Environmental History -FYJOHUPO #PPLT -BOIBN /&:3"5 ' Biopolitique des catastrophes .VTJDB 'BMTB &EJUJPOT ̓1BSJT 0-*7&3 4.*5) " i"OUISPQPMPHJDBM 3FTFBSDI PO )B[BSET BOE %JTBTUFSTi Annual Review of Anthropology QQ 0-*7&3 4.*5) " The Martyred City. Death and Rebirth in the Ande 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /FX .FYJDP 1SFTT "MCVRVFSRVF 1&3&55* 8"5&- 1 La sociĂŠtĂŠ du risque &E -B EĂ?DPVWFSUF $PMMFDUJPO j̓ 3FQĂ’SFT x Paris. 3&7&5 4 BOE + -"/(6.*&3 FE Le gouvernement des catastrophes &E ̓,BSUIBMB 1BSJT ;0/"#&/% ' La presqu’Île au nuclĂŠaire &E 0EJMF +BDPC 1BSJT

Exchanges‌ Alexis Drogoul, IRD :PV EJEO U TQFBL BCPVU JOGPSNBUJPO BOE EJTTFNJOBUJPO *U TFFNT UP NF IPXFWFS that one of the characteristics of our DPOUFNQPSBSZ TPDJFUZ PS BU MFBTU NPEFSO NBO JT UIF FYQPOFOUJBM JODSFBTF JO UIF RVBOUJUZ PG JOGPSNBUJPO EJTTFNJOBUFE BOE JUT JNNFEJBDZ UIBOLT UP *OUFSOFU 8IBU EP ZPV UIJOL BSF UIF DPOTFRVFODFT PG UIJT NBTT PG JOGPSNBUJPO PO PVS QFSDFQUJPO PG SJTL StĂŠphane Cartier, CNRS Thank you for having shown us that a bad sign could be both the sign of the evil and also the sign of identity between social DPNNVOJUJFT BOE HSPVQT $BO ZPV FYQMBJO UP VT IPX UIF QPQVMBUJPO SFUVSOFE UP OPSNBM

PS EJE UIF FYQFSJFODF JOEFFE USBOTGPSN UIFJS̓TPDJFUZ BOE SFMBUJPOTIJQT Vanessa Manceron Everybody does not necessarily have access to the same information. When we spoke BCPVU UIF GBSNFST UIFZ XFSF MFBSOJOH about what was happening in Dombes from the television before they knew locally that the virus had arrived. The mayor of the commune was informed in the same XBZ 5IFZ XFSF FYUSFNFMZ TIPDLFE BU UIF idea of being dispossessed of their means of action over the situation. This way of disseminating news created a terrible distrust. All discourse can be based upon anything. 3JTL FWFOUT IBWF CFDPNF B QPMJUJDBM BSFOB JU JT OP MPOHFS QPTTJCMF UP FYJTU MPDBMMZ PO B community scale. Risk is a great opportunity to have one’s demands heard on a national or international scale. The circulation of information is in fact part PG UIF TBNF HBNF PG TFMG QSFTFOUBUJPO PG B XPSME̓ WJTJPO PS B TQFDJĂśDJUZ UP EFGFOE a misfortune or an interpretation of the world to be told. That is the contemporary DIBMMFOHF XF BSF QPVMUSZ GBNFST XF IBWF PVS PXO FYQFSUJTF PG UIF QSPCMFN BOE UIFSF JT OP reason why it cannot weigh in the balance at the administrative authority level. Alexis Drogoul, IRD 8IFO XPSLJOH PO QBTU SJTLT XF DBO OPUJDF at present the multiplicity of points of view UIBU BSF FYQSFTTFE JO B UPUBMMZ JNNFEJBUF XBZ 5IFTF NBZ CF BOUBHPOJTUJD MBZJOH DMBJN UP their legitimacy at the world level. *O 'VLVTIJNB JO +BQBO WFSZ MJUUMF JOTUJUVUJPOBM JOGPSNBUJPO ĂśMUFSFE UISPVHI BOE BU UIF TBNF time the pages of Facebook of those who

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

XFSF UIFSF HBWF NJOVUF CZ NJOVUF EFUBJMT of what was happening. Does this change BOZUIJOH BCPVU PVS QFSDFQUJPO PG SJTL Vanessa Manceron A sort of dramaturgy is set in motion. There is the temporality of information BOE SFBM MJGF FYQFSJFODF BU MFBTU GPS UIF BòFDUFE̓ QPQVMBUJPOT XIP DPQF XJUI UIF catastrophe among themselves or in close SFMBUJPOTIJQ XJUI UIF MPDBM BVUIPSJUJFT *O UIJT QSPGVTJPO PG JOGPSNBUJPO * UIJOL UIFSF JT BMTP UIF GFFMJOH PG CFJOH QBSU PG UIF MBSHFS XPSME a sort of shrinking geography. An event in %PNCFT IBT SFQFSDVTTJPOT JO )POH ,POH BOE UIF OFXMZ DSFBUFE QSPYJNJUJFT DSFBUF an enormous amount of problems. A virus from Asia in Dombes also generates bigger RVFTUJPOT PG JEFOUJUZ CFDBVTF OFXT JT broadcasted as it happens and links together EJòFSFOU TUPSJFT BOE FYQFSJFODFT #VU BU UIF TBNF UJNF *̓ CFMJFWF UIBU UIJT DSFBUFT B common world. *O %PNCFT NBOZ BOBMPHJFT XFSF NBEF between the health confinement and the QFSJPE PG PDDVQBUJPO EVSJOH 8PSME 8BS̓ ** *EFBT XFSF FYDIBOHFE DPODFSOJOH UIJT BNCJWBMFOU TUBUVT BOE BMTP PG UIF gendarmes who were both the guardians and protectors PG QFPQMF T IFBMUI BOE BMTP UIF HVBSET XIP monitored people’s activities. There was also BO BNCJWBMFODF PG GSPOUJFS JOTJEF QFPQMF were unfairly stigmatised. People hid when crossing the sanitary cordon so as not to be identified as coming from within. There was this idea that the sanitary cordon was putting animals and humans at the same level – “We are locked up like rats in a trapâ€?. 5IF SFUVSO UP OPSNBM XBT EJĂłDVMU "WJBO øV JO UIF T IBE BòFDUFE B GFX QPVMUSZ GBSNT MPDBMMZ BOE IBE CFFO BUUSJCVUFE UP UIF TBMF

of one-day-old chicks and not to the natural environment. Management of the virus had SFNBJOFE MPDBM B DMBTTJDBM FQJ[PPUJD ĂśOBMMZ People have always known about these IB[BSET BOE IPX UP MJWF XJUI UIFN 'PS UIFN UIF BWJBO øV SJTL JT B QPMJUJDBM BOE TPDJBM IB[BSE and no longer a natural one. With the change PG OBUVSF BOE TDBMF PG UIF SJTL UIFZ XFSF scared to find themselves leaving a locally managed world. This prefigured a future in which the local would disappear to the benefit of the global world that embodied FOWJSPONFOUBMJTN -PDBM FòFDUT BT TVDI BSF OPU SFBMMZ QFSDFQUJCMF CVU JO QFPQMF T NJOET JU XBT B WFSJUBCMF IJTUPSJDBM UVSOJOH QPJOU BT JG they had changed worlds. Nguyáť…n TĂş, Social Sciences Training Institute, Háť“ ChĂ­ Minh City What is the government’s role in resolving DPOøJDUT CFUXFFO TPDJBM HSPVQT *OGPSNBUJPO JT VODPOUSPMMBCMF QBSUJDVMBSMZ PO *OUFSOFU JG UIF HPWFSONFOU EPFT OPU UBLF BEFRVBUF NFBTVSFT IPX DBO JU FOTVSF TUBCJMJUZ BOE DPOĂśEFODF Jean-Pascal Torreton Contradictory communications are ultimately characterised by a lack of confidence JO TDJFOUJĂśD NFUIPE XIJDI JT PGUFO perceived as supporting the discourse PG BO PĂłDJBM̓ BVUIPSJUZ %P XF IBWF BOZ FYBNQMFT PG B TVDDFTTGVM QPTU DSJTJT communication that will help reconcile or at least allow us to learn a lesson about instant DPNNVOJDBUJPOT Yves Le Bars What did your anthropological analysis EP UP NBLF UIJOHT NPWF BU MPDBM MFWFM *O̓ TVDI B TJUVBUJPO UBLJOH UIF NFBTVSF PG

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

B QIFOPNFOPO JT OPU OFVUSBM JU IBT BO FòFDU PO̓UIF QIFOPNFOPO :PV XFOU UIFSF GPMMPXJOH B MPDBM SFRVFTU XIBU XBT ZPVS JNQBDU 8IBU NFUIPEPMPHJDBM BOE FUIJDBM QSPCMFNT XFSF SBJTFE Vanessa Manceron The relation between a controllable OFXT JUFN DPOøJDUT TPDJBM JOTUBCJMJUZ BOE government responses depends on the scale of analysis. The government in France will not intervene in the management of a crisis between farmers and environmentalists. 0O UIF PUIFS IBOE * TQPLF BCPVU UIF RVPUB GPS UIF TMBVHIUFS PG TXBOT JO UIJT DBTF OFHPUJBUJPOT UBLF QMBDF CFUXFFO 5IF QVCMJD BVUIPSJUJFT XIP BSF SFQSFTFOUFE CZ UIF 1SFGFDU UIF SFHJPOBM BVUIPSJUZ The application of his authority varies considerably following multiple levels of bureaucracy; 5IF IFBMUI BVUIPSJUJFT XIJDI IBWF B lot of territorial power at the moment of the outbreak. They will become an intermediary between the government and the local populations in order to implement government measures BOE BU UIF TBNF UJNF TFSWF BT B CVòFS These authorities will negotiate at a local level on the inter-knowledge of minor adaptations of the law that are forms of tolerance or practice that are going to allow each person to manage the conflicts and appease anger in a small way. $PNNVOJDBUJPO QMBZFE GPS̓FYBNQMF B CJH SPMF XIFO %PNJOJRVF̓ EF 7JMMFQJO DBNF and ate a chicken leg on a poultry farm UP SFBTTVSF UIF QPQVMBUJPO XIJDI JT QBSU of the marketing and managing of what are considered to be unfounded fears. Scientific knowledge is conveyed through

TUBHF NBOBHFE NFEJB DPNNVOJDBUJPO which made all the farmers “fall about laughingâ€?. Thus social disorder is often QSFTFOU CFGPSF̓DSJTFT PS JO BOZ DBTF JU UBLFT on a more active form at that moment. )PXFWFS IVNBO TPDJFUJFT BSF GPSHFE JO DPOøJDU DPOøJDU JT POF SFMBUJPOTIJQ BNPOHTU others of which we cannot do without. A conflict can be managed through local JOUFS LOPXMFEHF HFOFSBMMZ XJUIPVU UIF interference of the authorities. On the other IBOE UIF TUBUF JT HFUUJOH JOWPMWFE XIFO JU supports a preservation policy with types of space conservation; it then becomes a player in this conflict. 5IF MBDL PG DPOĂśEFODF JO PĂłDJBM LOPXMFEHF and good post-crisis communication would SFRVJSF BO PĂłDJBM DPNNVOJDBUJPO UIBU XPVME SFTVMU JO B DPOTFOTVT )PXFWFS QPTU DSJTJT BT JT UIF DBTF EVSJOH BOE CFGPSF UIFSF JT JO NZ NJOE OP JOGPSNBUJPO UIBU NJHIU CF popularly accepted. This is an unavoidable social fact. 5IJT FòFDUJWFMZ SBJTFT UIF RVFTUJPO PG UIF FUIOPMPHJTU T QPTJUJPO JO UIF ĂśFME * GPVOE NZTFMG JO FYUSFNFMZ DPNQMJDBUFE TJUVBUJPOT owing to my knowledge of uses and practices that were in total contradiction with the measures recommended by the local health authorities. At the beginning PG UIF DSJTJT JU̓ XBT OPU LOPXO XIFUIFS BMM the poultry farms in the Dombes region were going to be eradicated. There was a lot of pressure. There was an atmosphere of catastrophe with the putting up of warning TJHOT o i1SPIJCJUFE̓ BSFBw i%P OPU BQQSPBDIw i4UBZ JOEPPSTw i$MFBO ZPVS XJOETDSFFOTw i1VU PO QSPUFDUJWF HMPWFT BOE CPPUTw FUD 3JTLZ QSBDUJDFT XFSF OPU EJWVMHFE *O BOZ DBTF UIF health authorities did not have the human means to forbid them.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Some colleagues who work in Africa found UIFNTFMWFT JO WFSZ EJĂłDVMU TJUVBUJPOT CZ becoming in a certain manner advisors UP UIF̓ BVUIPSJUJFT *O %PNCFT * XBT BCMF to preserve a scientific approach as the DPOUFYU̓ XBT GBWPVSBCMF CVU JO PUIFS cases ethnologists were asked to identify problematic practices from a health point PG WJFX JO PSEFS UP BWPJE DPOUBDU [POFT 5IJT̓SBJTFT FUIJDBM RVFTUJPOT BT JU PGUFO MFBET

to the forbidding of practices that may have great social importance for populations at B MPDBM MFWFM PCMJHJOH UIFN UP SFOPVODF practices that have social meaning or around which many relationships and values are created. People enter into moulds of hygiene and norms that are in contradiction with UIFJS EBJMZ̓MJWFT BOE JO UIJT XBZ FUIOPMPHJTUT contribute to a form of normalising everything.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

/BUVSBMMZ 0DDVSSJOH %JTBTUFST $PODFQUT $POTFRVFODFT 4PDJFUZ T Response When Faced With These Crises Yves Le Bars – "TTPDJBUJPO 'SBOĂŽBJTF EF 1SĂ?WFOUJPO EFT̓$BUBTUSPQIFT̓/BUVSFMMFT

(Transcript) 5IBOL ZPV GPS JOWJUJOH NF UP UIFTF +5% * TIBMM ĂśSTU USZ UP HJWF B GFX SFNJOEFST BCPVU UIF DPODFQU PG IB[BSET FYQPTVSF BOE WVMOFSBCJMJUZ 8F TIBMM UIFO FYBNJOF UIF response of those concerned and the concept of risk perception by attempting to establish B MJOL CFUXFFO BO FOHJOFFS T BQQSPBDI XIJDI JT NJOF BOE UIF DPODFQUJPO PG QVCMJD QPMJDJFT UP XIJDI * XJTI UP DPOUSJCVUF TFF 1IPUPT OFYU̓QBHF "MUIPVHI PVS TVCKFDU NBJOMZ DPODFSOT øPPEJOH XF BMTP IBWF UP UIJOL BCPVU PUIFS natural disasters from which most South&BTU "TJBO DPVOUSJFT BSF TQBSFE )FSF * BN UIJOLJOH̓ BCPVU MBSHF TDBMF ESPVHIU avalanches and forest fires to name but a few.

*O UIFTF QIPUPT XF DBO TFF B SJWFS PG MBWB UIBU JT JOWBEJOH UIF DJUZ PG (PNB JO UIF $POHP some well-known images of the tsunami JO +BQBO UIF FBSUIRVBLF JO )BJUJ BOE UIF collapse of the presidential palace and the meltdown of the Fukushima nuclear reactor. These disasters are naturally occurring but UIFJS DPOTFRVFODFT BSF TPDJBM FDPOPNJD BOE UFDIOPMPHJDBM BOE NBZ IBWF BO JNQBDU beyond State borders (see graph on natural EJTBTUFST JO UIF XPSME PO UIF OFYU QBHF *U JT QPTTJCMF UP NFBTVSF UIF TJ[F PG OBUVSBM disasters in the world. To do this we use two DSJUFSJB UIF OVNCFS PG QFPQMF BòFDUFE CZ the disaster and the number of dead. We could also have taken into account economic WBMVFT UIF OVNCFS PG IPVTFT EFTUSPZFE FUD We can see that the number of victims is a lot

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Photos 2-8 Naturally Occurring Disasters

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(7)

(6)

(1) Devastating floods; (2) 2012: New York Cyclone Sandy; (3) Drought in Africa; (4) A lava flow of this type invaded the city of Goma in the Congo; (5) Avalanche in the Alps; (6) Tsunami in Japan; (7) Earthquake in Port-au-Prince. Sources: (1) Pôle grenoblois risques naturels 2006, Crue du Domeynon, August 2005 (38). Guide for the use of the Mayor and elected representatives, Région Rhône Alpes, IDRM; (2) Wikipedia: Hurricane Sandy New Jersey Pier; (3) Herds decimated by drought in Kenya, photo taken from the site www.lepetitnegre.com, Les pouces Verts; (4) Yves LE BARS; (5) Cemagref; (6) Google images, and geeko.lesoir.be; (7) Yves LE BARS.

Graph

1

Natural Disasters in the World (Situation 9th August 2010)

Affected (millions)

Tsunami in Asia (2004)

Deaths (thousands)

Earthquake in Pakistan (2005)

Earthquake in Sichan in China (2008)

Earthquake in Haïti (2010)

Source: United Nations (UN); Asian Development Bank (ADB).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Floods in Pakistan (2010)

MPXFS UIBO UIF OVNCFS PG QFPQMF BòFDUFE XJUI QFBLT PG ÜGUFFO NJMMJPO QFPQMF )PXFWFS these figures do not take into account the FBSUIRVBLFT JO $IJMMJ BOE )BJUJ UIF FBSUIRVBLF BOE UTVOBNJ JO +BQBO BOE UIF øPPEJOH JO #BOHLPL

1.2.1. A Few Reminders About The Notions Of Disaster Risk Reduction 8F IBWF UP EJTUJOHVJTI UIF IB[BSET PG SJTL " HZNOBTU UBLFT SJTLT IF GBDFT B IB[BSE UIBU is the relative precision of his movements DPOGSPOUFE CZ HSBWJUZ )F QMBDFT IJNTFMG JO EBOHFS CVU ĂśOBMMZ IF JT OPU SFBMMZ WVMOFSBCMF BT IF IBT CFFO USBJOFE QSFQBSFE )B[BSE JT the occurrence of something that cannot CF DPOUSPMMFE UIF SJTL PG EJTBTUFS POMZ FYJTUT UISPVHI UIF DPOKVODUJPO PG FYQPTVSF BOE vulnerability.

Resilience is the ability to react after a disaster without being destroyed. We today talk about naturally occurring risks CFDBVTF UIF IB[BSE UIBU VQTFUT UIF CBMBODF PG UIJOHT JT OBUVSBMMZ PDDVSSJOH o i'PS B QPMJDZ for the reduction of disaster riskâ€? is what this IBT CFFO DBMMFE CZ UIF 6OJUFE /BUJPOT 6/ BOE CZ UIF *OUFSOBUJPOBM 4USBUFHZ GPS %JTBTUFS 3FEVDUJPO *4%3 XXX VOJTES PSH Vulnerability is a combination of social and physical factors that increase a DPNNVOJUZ T QPTTJCJMJUZ PG TVòFSJOH UIF JNQBDU PG IB[BSET *O NZ PQJOJPO QIZTJDBM GBDUPST BSF WFSZ JNQPSUBOU o CFDBVTF * USBJOFE BT BO FOHJOFFS̓o CVU * JOTJTU VQPO UIF DPNCJOBUJPO PG QIZTJDBM BOE TPDJBM GBDUPST JU JT EJĂłDVMU to disassociate them in the analysis and conception of policies.

Vulnerability is how susceptible an indiviEVBM PS B DPNNVOJUZ JT UP CFJOH BòFDUFE CZ a disaster.

Photo

9

Identifying the Visible Challenges to Evaluate the Vulnerability of the Territory (In December 2003, the Loire River floods the Decize fire station)

Source: Seme.cer.free.fr, photo by François Olivier.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

5IF iTUBLFTw BSF QFPQMF UIJOHT PS FRVJQNFOU UIBU NJHIU CF FYQPTFE UP OBUVSBM SJTLT *U JT thus necessary to situate the stakes present JO UIF DPNNVOF EXFMMJOHT BDUJWJUJFT FRVJQNFOU HFOFSBM JOUFSFTU XPSLT MJTU UIF current means implemented to prevent and fight against natural risks and evaluate

the gravity of potential damage on the JEFOUJöFE TUBLFT :PV DBO TFF JO UIJT QIPUP B öSF TUBUJPO UIBU XBT øPPEFE CZ UIF -PJSF 3JWFS TXFMMJOH JO 5IF öSFNFO GPVOE UIFNTFMWFT JO EJóDVMUZ BOE XFSF VOBCMF to react. We also identified fire stations that XFSF̓OPU̓FBSUIRVBLF SFTJTUBOU

Photos 10-11 Earthquake and Tsunami in Japan (March 2011): Preparation, Prevention and Resilience?

(1) The pillars of a bridge: Earthquake resilient edifices; (2) The Big Buddha Amitabha of Kamakura. Source: (1) Google images and ICI Japon.com; (2) Google Images, and nezumi.dumousseau.free.fr

-FU VT UBLF BT BO FYBNQMF UIF UTVOBNJ JO +BQBO JO .BSDI 5IJT FBSUIRVBLF XBT remarkably well anticipated. The Tokyo VOEFSHSPVOE JT OPU JU BQQFBST BOZ NPSF EJTUVSCFE BGUFS BO FBSUIRVBLF UIBO UIF Paris underground in normal conditions. Everything is anticipated. The shock BCTPSCFST XFSF WFSZ FóDJFOU BOE BCTPSCFE the movements of the earth. The Tokyo DPOUSPM DFOUSF JT SFNBSLBCMF BOE UIFSF JT B second identical copy of this centre in the NPVOUBJOT GBS GSPN UIF DJUZ JO DBTF UIF öSTU JT EFTUSPZFE )PXFWFS UIF UTVOBNJ XBT OPU

BOUJDJQBUFE FWFO UIPVHI UIFSF BSF TJHOT BOE B DFSUBJO NFNPSZ PG QSFWJPVT FWFOUT UIF CVJMEJOH UIBU TIFMUFSFE UIF CJH #VEEIB PG ,BNBLVSB JT UIPVHIU UP IBWF CFFO EFTUSPZFE by a typhoon or a tsunami at the end of the th̓DFOUVSZ 5IF TFB JT LN BT UIF CJSE øJFT from this temple! "MUIPVHI XF DBO UBML BCPVU +BQBO T IJHI capacity to resist and economically and TPDJBMMZ BCTPSC UIF FòFDUT PG UTVOBNJT UIF Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) IPXFWFS XIJDI SVOT UIF OVDMFBS QPXFS

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

TUBUJPOT EFNPOTUSBUFE UIBU JU XBT JODBQBCMF PG UBLJOH DPOUSPM PG UIF EJรณDVMUJFT GPS XIJDI it was in no way prepared and that it had said would never happen. "U UIF UJNF PG UIF )BJUJ FBSUIRVBLF UIF TPDJBM FDPOPNJD BOE QPMJUJDBM DPOUFYU XBT DPNQMFUFMZ EJรฒFSFOU CFDBVTF UIF 4UBUF XBT particularly ill prepared for such an event. 'PS รถGUFFO ZFBST (3&5 PG XIJDI * XBT 1SFTJEFOU BOE +FBO 'POUFOFMMF UIF PQFSBUJPOT NBOBHFS IFMQFE XJUI UIF JNQMFNFOUBUJPO PG a way of distributing drinking water by water fountains in the poorer districts of Port-auPrince; people could use these fountains at a reasonable price and they were managed by OFJHICPVSIPPE XBUFS DPNNJUUFFT FMFDUFE CZ UIF QPQVMBUJPO JO OFJHICPVSIPPET XJUI B QPQVMBUJPO PG NPSF UIBO 'PMMPXJOH UIF FBSUIRVBLF BU UIF FOE PG +BOVBSZ (3&5 JNQMFNFOUFE B UISFF QIBTF QMBO 1IBTF "DDFTT UP FNFSHFODZ BJE JO UIF poor neighbourhoods of Port-au-Prince; 1IBTF 1PTU FNFSHFODZ GPMMPX VQ JO QPPS neighbourhoods; 1IBTF 4VQQPSU GPS B SFDPOTUSVDUJPO process and sustainable development. *NNFEJBUF SFTQPOTFT UP UIF FBSUIRVBLF resulted in the appearance of a lot of tension between development workers already present on the site and emergency workers.

%VSJOH UIF DSJTJT UIF FNFSHFODZ XPSLFST BSF JO B TVQQMZ NJOE TFU 5IFZ IBWF DPNF UP PรฒFS XIBU UIFZ DPOTJEFS UP CF OFDFTTBSZ XBUFS GPPE UFOUT BOE PQFSBUJPOBM FRVJQNFOU Practices are not always respectful of local TPDJFUZ TVQQMZ MPHJD JT OPU BMXBZT HPPE at understanding social organisation and victimsโ real needs. Thus emergency workers wanted to create new competing DPNNJUUFFT iXBUFSw iTIFMUFSw DPNNJUUFFT FUD UIFZ IBE UP CF DPOWJODFE UP VTF UIF FYJTUJOH PSHBOJTBUJPOT *O UIF QPTU FNFSHFODZ GPMMPX VQ QIBTF new tensions arose with a wave of nonconcerted humanitarian operations that the committee implemented by the United /BUJPOT BOE QSFTJEFE CZ #JMM $MJOUPO XFSF unable to control. We witnessed in particular competition between the emergency operators to recruit the best technicians and UIF NPTU RVBMJรถFE TUBรฒ FUD UIBU IBE UIF FรฒFDU PG SBJTJOH TBMBSJFT BOE DPTUT SFTVMUJOH JO UIF XFBLFOJOH PG QSF FYJTUJOH TUSVDUVSFT "T GBS BT EJTBTUFS NBOBHFNFOU JT DPODFSOFE )BJUJ EFNPOTUSBUFE UIBU UIF QBTTBHF GSPN emergency to post-emergency and the SFTVNQUJPO PG EFWFMPQNFOU JT FYUSFNFMZ EJรณDVMU *U JT OFDFTTBSZ UP FNQIBTJTF IPX NVDI DJWJM TPDJFUZ JO JUT TUSVDUVSF CVJMET SFTJMJFODF )BJUJ BOE UIF UTVOBNJ CPUI SBJTF RVFTUJPOT BCPVU UIF DBQBDJUJFT PG TPDJFUJFT UP BEESFTT JTTVFT PS PO UIF DPOUSBSZ JO UIF DBTF PG +BQBO GBJM CZ SFGVTJOH UP TFF UIF QPTTJCMF IB[BSE

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

1.2.2. Players’ Responses Diagram 1

An Analysis Grid for the Reduction of Disaster Risks

Source: Risk management model, protection of the Swiss population. Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP), 2001.

*U TFFNT UP NF UIBU UIJT BOBMZTJT HSJE JT interesting in order to understand what generates the reactions of those involved. -FU VT UBLF BT PVS EFQBSUVSF QPJOU UIF NPUPS for the reduction of catastrophe risks that is the catastrophe itself. We can first identify a phase of prevention and preparation. We LOPX UIBU JO UIF ÜSTU UISFF EBZT PG B DSJTJT POMZ OFJHICPVST BSF MJLFMZ UP QSPWJEF TVQQPSU the implementation of large-scale aid to QPQVMBUJPOT UBLFT UJNF TFF QIPUPT OFYU QBHF 'SPN UIF *OEJWJEVBM UP UIF $PNNVOJUZ All Types of Response). 5IF SFTQPOTF PG TPDJFUJFT JT FWJEFOUMZ EJòFSFOU The first image is the response of a liberal society where the individual is responsible for his own self.

"O JOEJWJEVBM JT BòFDUFE CZ øPPEJOH BOE so he builds a dyke around his house with sandbags. This is a typical individual response to the crisis. 8F IBWF B TFDPOE QIPUPHSBQI JO UIF /FUIFSMBOET PG UIF DPOTUSVDUJPO PG B HJBOU loch to prevent waters rising and flooding Rotterdam. 'JOBMMZ UIF MBTU JNBHF JT POF PG QSFWFOUJPO BO JOIBCJUBOU PG -PVJTJBOB JO UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT IBT EFDJEFE UP CVJME B IPVTF PO TUJMUT *U JT B QFSTPOBM FOEFBWPVS )JT OFJHICPVST IBWF OPU taken the same precautions; have not taken the same preventative measures (see photo OFYU QBHF 4PNF 3FTQPOTFT .BOBHJOH Future Floods).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Photos 12-14 From the Individual to the Community, All Types of Response 1 – Limit the damage

2- New Orleans Rebuild reducing vulnerability

3- Rotterdam, !"#$%&' gates against storms

Source: (1) Image captures, Le Monde newspaper; (2) Rotterdam Info; (3) Isabelle MARET, geographer.

Photo

15 Some Responses. Managing Future Floods (Bangkok Flooded)

Source: Google Images, Thaiflood info.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

The flooding that submerged the city of #BOHLPL JT CPUI TJHOJöDBOU BOE XPSSZJOH BT UIF DJUZ JO UIF TBNF XBZ BT UIF /FUIFSMBOET is sinking. The Ministry for Transport has

Photo

decided to build new dykes and repair damaged roads. A new road network should allow the digging of a diversion channel.

16 A Plan for the Prevention of Flooding Risks for a Commune (France)

Source: Hebdo-Ardèche, 11th October 2010.

Another response is planning at a departmental level. We have here a prevention of flooding risk plan of a DPNNVOF TPNF [POFT BSF VOCVJMEBCMF others are on the fringes and have been allowed on condition that they fulfil certain SFRVJSFNFOUT o VOJOIBCJUFE CBTFNFOU CPJMFS BU B DFSUBJO IFJHIU FUD *O 'SBODF XF TUJMM CVJME B MPU JO øPPE [POFT UIF SJTL PG øPPEJOH JT OPU ZFU TVóDJFOUMZ UBLFO JOUP BDDPVOU

1.2.3. Perception of Risks The necessary mobilising and taking into account of all the players necessitates an adapted decision-making process.

*U JT OFDFTTBSZ UP DPOTJEFS UIF XBZ JO XIJDI UIF SJTLT BSF QFSDFJWFE BT XFMM BT UIF DPOöEFODF̓ QMBDFE JO FYQFSUT JO PSEFS UP FMBCPSBUF QVCMJD QPMJDJFT JO UIF DPOUFYU PG B NJTUSVTUGVM TPDJFUZ t 8IBU BSF UIF SJTL MFWFMT QFSDFJWFE CZ UIF 'SFODI JO BDDPSEJOH UP UIF CBSPNFUFS of the Institut de Radioprotection et de Sûreté Nucléaire *34/

8F JEFOUJöFE GPS FYBNQMF BOE CZ PSEFS PG JNQPSUBODF VOFNQMPZNFOU DPOTFRVFODFT PG UIF öOBODJBM DSJTJT FOWJSPONFOUBM EBNBHF t *O SFTQPOTF UP UIF RVFTUJPO “Regarding environmental concerns, which is of the most concern to you?”, SFQMJFT DMBTT XBUFS

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

t

Graph

2

NPSF̓ UIBO PG JOUFSWJFXFFT MFOE credibility to the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique $/34 UIF XPSME of research appears competent; the same can be said for that of nuclear energy and the Commissariat Ă l’Energie Atomique et aux Energies Alternatives (CEA) or that PG EPDUPST 3FHBSEJOH UIF HPWFSONFOU PCTFSWBUJPOT BSF EJòFSFOU KPVSOBMJTUT VOJPOT BOE QPMJUJDJBOT #VU XIP iUFMMT UIF USVUI w " QFSTPO NBZ CF DPOTJEFSFE BT being competent and not tell the truth. *O̓ 'SBODF UIPTF XIP BSF DPOTJEFSFE to be the most truthful are consumer BTTPDJBUJPOT XIFSFBT PG interviewees consider them as competent).

The Confidence in Organisms Issue Percentage of “yes� answers to the questions

“In the domain of industry and nuclear energy, do you think that the following individuals and organisms are competent?â€? and “Do the following news sources tell you the truth about nuclear energy in France?â€?

Credibility

Consumer Associations

Environmental Groups

Doctors Science Academies Journalists

International Organisations

Competency

t

QPMMVUJPO BJS QPMMVUJPO HSFFOIPVTF FòFDU EFTUSVDUJPO PG GPSFTUT EBNBHF MJOLFE UP OBUVSBM DBUBTUSPQIFT EFHSBEBUJPO PG UIF MBOETDBQF OPJTF QPMMVUJPO *O SFTQPOTF UP UIF RVFTUJPO “Do you think you are being told the truth about risks?â€? individuals generally reply no. "MUIPVHI GPS FYBNQMF QFPQMF CFMJFWF UIBU they are being told the truth about road BDDJEFOUT POMZ UIJOL UIFZ BSF CFJOH UPME UIF USVUI BCPVU øPPEJOH GPS OVDMFBS QPXFS TUBUJPOT BOE SJWFS QPMMVUJPO BOE GPS SBEJPBDUJWF XBTUF $JUJ[FOT NJTUSVTU XIBU UIFZ BSF UPME 5P UIF RVFTUJPO “In the case of nuclear risk, who is considered as being competentâ€?

Unions Local Government

Politics

Source: Baromètre 2012 IRSN perception des risques www.irsn.fr

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

5IF GVSUIFS XF NPWF BXBZ GSPN UIF TDJFOUJĂśD the less we recognise the competencies of those who intervene; the closer and NPSF̓ BDDFTTJCMF UIF QFSTPO JOUFSWFOJOH JT UIF NPSF DSFEJCMF UIF JOGPSNBUJPO JT KVEHFE to be. * BN JO GBWPVS PG JODMVEJOH TDJFODF SFTFBSDI and researchers in the construction of public policies. Although we can no longer decide BT XF VTFE UP XF DBO JEFOUJGZ UISFF BHFT PG QPMJUJDBM MJGF UIBU * FYQFSJFODFE JO TPNF XBZ EVSJOH NZ QSPGFTTJPOBM DBSFFS o "HF "GUFS UIF 4FDPOE 8PSME XBS VSHFOU reconstruction needs and a penury of TFOJPS̓ TUBò EFUFSNJOFE B QVCMJD BDUJPO TUSVDUVSF JO 'SBODF 4UBUF PSHBOJTNT HSPVQFE UPHFUIFS UIF CFTU TFOJPS TUBò 5IF̓ PCKFDUJWF XBT TJNQMF DBUDI VQ XJUI UIF̓6OJUFE 4UBUFT 5IF̓FYQFSU XBT B iEFDJEFSw *U̓ XBT OPU OFDFTTBSZ UP TIPX B QVCMJD policy. Every problem had one solution – the right decision – that was made by the FYQFSU o "HF 1PTTJCMF BMUFSOBUJWFT BSF BDLOPX MFEHFE FYDFTT PG FYQFSUJTF XBT DPVOUFSFE by the seeking of a second opinion FYQFSUT̓ BOE UIF iEFDJEFSw *U XBT UIF ĂśSTU FYBNQMF PG B TFQBSBUJPO PG UIF GVODUJPOT o "HF 5IF FYQFSU BOE UIPTF SFTQPOTJCMF introduce “the othersâ€? into the decisionNBLJOH QSPDFTT *U JT B UISFF QMBZFS HBNF FYQFSUT QBSUOFST BOE UIPTF SFTQPOTJCMF the players are autonomous and no MPOHFS EFQFOE PO UIF 4UBUF *U JT OP MPOHFS RVFTUJPO PG DBUDIJOH VQ XJUI UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT PS JNJUBUJOH BOPUIFS iCJH CSPUIFSw OFX SJTLT DPNF UP MJHIU HMPCBMJTBUJPO QPWFSUZ BOE JOFRVBMJUZ DMJNBUF IFBMUI BOE FOWJSPONFOU FUD 5IF UISFF HSPVQT PG QMBZFST JO UIJT QSPDFTT IBWF EJòFSFOU disassociated legitimacies.

5PEBZ XF BSF JO UIF i"HF PG EFDJTJPO NBLJOHw * UIJOL UIF UVSOJOH QPJOU XBT XIFO "*%4 WJDUJNT NBEF VT VOEFSTUBOE UIBU UIFZ were a problem but also that the solution EFQFOEFE PO UIFN UIBU SFTFBSDIFST IBE to work with them to find solutions that could be integrated into the victims’ lives. Tritherapy arrived on the market. 8IJMF * BN PO UIJT TVCKFDU * XPVME MJLF UP SFDPNNFOE ZPV UP SFBE -VDJFO 4GF[ T CPPL entitled “La DĂŠcisionâ€? – s/he who makes the decision becomes the scapegoat society OFFET UP UBDLMF EJĂłDVMU JTTVFT 5IF DPOUFNQPSBSZ EFDJTJPO XIJDI JOWPMWFT BMM UIF QMBZFST BMMPXT VT UP BSCJUSBUF CFUXFFO things that the engineer alone would be JODBQBCMF PG DPODJMJBUJOH CFUXFFO UIF QMBOOJOH BOE UIF SJHPSPVT [POJOH UIF BEBQUBUJPO PG UFDIOJRVFT BOE CFIBWJPVS technology and organisation – and decide how far we can go with prevention. Disaster creates a situation of crisis. Our usual references are dramatically transformed; “He who does not obstinately prepare to face the crisis will soon find himself in its gripâ€? -BHBEFD

Selective Bibliography Websites :PLPIBNB 4USBUFHZ BOE 1MBO PG "DUJPO GPS B 4BGFS 8PSME (VJEFMJOFT GPS /BUVSBM %JTBTUFS 1SFWFOUJPO 1SFQBSFEOFTT BOE .JUJHBUJPO I U U Q X X X Q SF WF O U J P OXF C O F U ĂśMFT @EPD DPOUFOJEP QEG Strengthening hydro-meteorological services in Southeast Asia IUUQ XXX VOJTES PSH GJMFT @ DPVOUSZBTTFTTNFOUSFQPSUWJFUOBN< > QEG

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

"TJB 1BDJĂśD TZOUIFTJT SFQPSU DPOTVMUBUJPOT PO UIF QPTU GSBNFXPSL GPS EJTBTUFS SJTL SFEVDUJPO )'"

IUUQ XXX VOJTES PSH GJMFT @ synthesisreportunisdrasiapacificcon.pdf "-("/ : BOE 1 $")6$ j $PNNFOU MF NPEĂ’MF TPDJBM GSBOĂŽBJT T BVUPEĂ?USVJU x $PMMFDUJPO EV $&13&."1 ²ET 3VF E 6MN 1SFTTFT EF M ²DPMF OPSNBMF TVQĂ?SJFVSF 1BSJT *OTUJUVU EF 3BEJPQSPUFDUJPO FU EF 4Ă&#x;SFUĂ? /VDMĂ?BJSF *34/ j #BSPNĂ’USF BOOVFM TVS MB QFSDFQUJPO EFT SJTRVFT x IUUQ XXX JSTO fr/fr/irsn/publications/barometre/) -"("%&$ 1 j -B HFTUJPO EFT DSJTFT 0VUJMT EF SĂ?øFYJPO Ă‹ M VTBHF EFT EĂ?DJEFVST̓x .D (SBX )JMM 1BSJT 304"/7"--0/ 1 j -B DPOUSF EĂ?NPDSBUJF -B QPMJUJRVF Ă‹ M ÉHF EF MB EĂ?ĂśBODF x 4FVJM 1BSJT SFEZ - j -B %Ă?DJTJPO x 2VF TBJT KF 1VG 1BSJT

Exchanges... Alexis Drogoul, IRD There were clear conceptual and political reference frameworks for the first two EFDJTJPO FSBT CVU UIF UIJSE TFFNT UP CF B MJUUMF CMVSSFE "TTPDJBUJOH UIF PUIFST JO B MPU NPSF HFOFSBM JO QPMJUJDT JT BO BDU PG EFNPDSBDZ CVU GPS XIBU EFNPDSBDZ 5IJT is not conceived to transform society but society’s reaction to events. What are the political frameworks that allow us to place BSPVOE UIF TBNF UBCMF FYQFSUT EFDJEFST BOE BMM UIF PUIFST %P BOZ̓FYJTU * EJE OPU ĂśOE BOZ USBDF PG #SVOP -BUPVS T XPSL BCPVU PCKFDU PSJFOUFE EFNPDSBDZ FUIJDBM QPMJUJDT DBO UIJT DPOTUJUVUF̓B QFSUJOFOU GSBNFXPSL

Yves Le Bars 8F IBWF UP BDLOPXMFEHF UIF EJòFSFODF JO TJUVBUJPOT BOE UIF WJTJPO PG UIF GVUVSF UIF OBSSBUJWF OFFET UP CF XSJUUFO Societies have not yet acknowledged this necessity to rebuild something. On the QPMJUJDBM EJNFOTJPO JU JT B RVFTUJPO PG XSJUJOH a motivating vision of the future that may CF TIBSFE * BN BSHVJOH GPS B EFTJHO QSPDFTT GPS UIF GBCSJDBUJPO PG QVCMJD̓ QPMJDJFT *O BO JOUFSOBUJPOBM OFHPUJBUJPO XIBU JT NPTU EJĂłDVMU JT UP OFHPUJBUF UIF GPSN PG UIF UBCMF *U JT QBSUJDVMBSMZ JNQPSUBOU UP FMBCPSBUF UIF process itself. The treatment of radioactive waste in France is one of the processes that has been the most elaborated and approved CZ QBSMJBNFOU 3FDFOUMZ BOE TUJMM JO 'SBODF a process has been launched for energy USBOTJUJPO * BN BNPOHTU UIPTF XIP UIJOL JU JT important to spend time defining the nature PG UIF QSPDFTT JEFOUJGZJOH̓UIF SFTPVSDF HSPVQ PG UIF FYQFSUT PSHBOJTJOH NFFUJOHT CFUXFFO UIF MBUUFS BOE DJUJ[FOT CVU BMTP DPOOFDUJPOT with those responsible in enterprises and in administrations. The work may appear to CF DIBPUJD CVU * CFMJFWF UIBU SFTQFDUJOH UIF UJNF GBDUPS JT JOEJTQFOTBCMF UP BO FĂłDJFOU functioning. * SFNBSLFE TPNF JOUFSFTUJOH EFWFMPQNFOUT in the Rhone valley in the risk management framework where the Prefect and the President of the Conseil GĂŠneral organised UPHFUIFS B QSPDFTT XJUI B HSPVQ PG FYQFSUT the local authorities and the associations PG UIF̓ FDPOPNJD QMBZFST JO UIF [POF "T a result they were able to realise that the biggest threat was not the swelling of the Rhone – a slow swelling – but those in

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

the small valleys that were largely under estimated. Nguyáť…n Tháť‹ HoĂ ng Anh, National Center of Satellites )PX DBO XF FWBMVBUF UIF BEBQUBUJPO PG QPQVMBUJPOT BU SJTL Yves Le Bars 8F OFFE UP CVJME PO UIFTF FYQFSJFODFT from across the world. Understanding other people’s crises is fundamental. Participating in research work and in the building up of FYQFSUJTF PO CPUI B SFHJPOBM BOE JOUFSOBUJPOBM level brings new answers – the case of storm BOE DZDMPOF SFTJTUBOU EXFMMJOHT "OE UIFO UIFSF JT BMTP QFPQMF T DSFBUJWJUZ *O UIF 3IPOF WBMMFZ DPMMFDUJWF FòPSUT IBWF BMMPXFE QFPQMF to establish a new list of priorities. Nguyáť…n TĂş, Training Institute of Social Sciences What importance should we attach to SVNPVS̓JO SJTL BOUJDJQBUJPO Yves Le Bars * BN OPU B TQFDJBMJTU JO SVNPVS CVU * IBE to take responsibility for the controversial TVCKFDU PG UIF NBOBHFNFOU PG SBEJPBDUJWF XBTUF XIFO * XBT 1SFTJEFOU PG UIF Agence française pour la Gestion des DĂŠchets

Radioactifs * XPSLFE PO DPOĂśEFODF CVJMEJOH PO BO JOUFSOBUJPOBM MFWFM *U JT B DPOTJEFSBCMF challenge in our societies as rumour is born PG NJTUSVTU *U JT QPTTJCMF UP JODSFBTF UIF DSFEJCJMJUZ PG B UFDIOJDBM TUSVDUVSF 4JY NPOUIT JOUP NZ NBOEBUF * XBT DPOTJEFSFE UP CF BO JOEFQFOEFOU FYQFSU JO UIF NBOBHFNFOU PG SBEJPBDUJWF XBTUF CPUI CZ (SFFOQFBDF BOE by the nuclear industry. *U JT QBSUJDVMBSMZ JNQPSUBOU UP SFNBJO XJUIJO POF T SPMF B TDJFOUJTU BMTP IBT IJT JSSBUJPOBM TJEF BOE IF NVTU CF DBSFGVM PG JU BT XFMM BT assumptions that are outside his scientific field. Reinforcing the credibility of what public PSHBOJTNT TBZ JT BO FYDFMMFOU XBZ PG ĂśHIUJOH BHBJOTU SVNPVST *O UIF ĂśFME PG IFBMUI UIF credibility of those agencies that must NPOJUPS GPPE RVBMJUZ JT FTTFOUJBM *O 'SBODF the president of this agency published a report entitled “Can sheep transmit mad DPX T EJTFBTF UP NBO w B GFX EBZT CFGPSF UIF 1BSJT BHSJDVMUVSBM TIPX 'PS UIF HPWFSONFOU publishing such a report that created so many problems for livestock farmers was unacceptable. The president of the agency defended himself by arguing that he could not hide their reports. This reaction did a great deal for the agency’s credibility. Reinforcing the credibility of what our leaders say is the best way to kill rumours.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

1IZTJDBM $IBSBDUFSJTUJDT 1PQVMBUJPO -PHJDT BOE %FWFMPQNFOU PG 4QBDF )PX̓7VMOFSBCMF BSF 4PVUIFBTU "TJBO 4PDJFUJFT UP /BUVSBM BOE̓$MJNBUJD )B[BSET Jean-Philippe Fontenelle – Bordeaux Sciences Agro

(Transcript) This presentation will be essentially geographic and focus on the specific characteristics of Southeast Asia. * TIPVME öSTU MJLF UP DPNF CBDL UP UIF JOUFSFTU social sciences have in the study of natural EJTBTUFST XJUI UIF BJN PG EFöOJOH UIFJS FDPOPNJD TPDJBM BOE IJTUPSJDBM DBVTFT 5P EP UIJT * TIBMM SFGFS UP SFTFBSDI XPSL UIBU BEESFTTFT UIF JTTVF PG SVQUVSF BOE DPOUJOVJUZ IFSF JU JT B RVFTUJPO PG SFDPOTJEFSJOH NBO T QMBDF JO OBUVSBMMZ PDDVSSJOH EJTBTUFST CZ FYBNJOJOH UIF JOUFSBDUJPO CFUXFFO TPDJFUJFT BOE IB[BSET

1.3.1. Survey of Natural Disasters in the World 5IF *OUFSOBUJPOBM &NFSHFODZ %JTBTUFST Database (EM-DAT) is a Center for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED) EBUBCBTF UIBU XBT DSFBUFE JO BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG -PVWBJO -B /FVWF #FMHJVN *U XBT PSJHJOBMMZ B SFTFBSDI QSPKFDU JOUP EJTBTUFST BOE UIFJS FòFDU PO QVCMJD IFBMUI XIJDI TVCTFRVFOUMZ CFDBNF FTUBCMJTIFE BU institutional level thanks to the support of the 8PSME )FBMUI 0SHBOJTBUJPO 8)0 TFF HSBQI OFYU QBHF /BUVSBM %JTBTUFST 3FQPSUFE

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Graph

3

Natural Disasters Reported 1900-2011

1

Source: www.emdat.be

Graph

4

Number of Natural Disasters Reported 1900-2011 per Type

Source: www.emdat.be

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

5IF EBUBCBTF TVSWFZT UIF OVNCFS PG EFBUIT QFPQMF BòFDUFE IPVTFT EFTUSPZFE QFPQMF EJTQMBDFE FUD 0O UIJT HSBQI XF PCTFSWF B IJHI SJTF JO UIF OVNCFS PG SFDPSEFE EJTBTUFST XIJDI NVTU CF SFBE JO DPOKVODUJPO XJUI UIF EFWFMPQNFOU PG UPPMT GPS SFDPSEJOH IB[BSET o̓ TFJTNPHSBQI OFUXPSLT TBUFMMJUFT̓ o BOE demographic dynamics – people and habitats QBSUJBMMZ BòFDUFE XIJDI XFSF OPU SFDPSEFE in the past. The curve has been increasing

Graph

5

TJODF̓UIF CFHJOOJOH PG UIF th century (See HSBQI QSFWJPVT QBHF /VNCFS PG /BUVSBM %JTBTUFST 3FQPSUFE QFS 5ZQF The classification of recorded disasters UISPXT̓MJHIU VQPO UIF SFDVSSFODF PG ESPVHIUT øPPET BOE MBOETMJEFT JO ESZ PS XFU DPOEJUJPOT TUPSNT FBSUIRVBLFT WPMDBOJD FSVQUJPOT FQJEFNJDT BOE PUIFS DBTFT BWBMBODIFT IBJM TUPSNT ĂśSF FUD

Number of Natural Disasters Reported 1900-2011 per Continent Sup. 30% Pop. 60%

Source: www.emdat.be

The distribution of disasters per continent highlights their high level in Asia. This must be correlated with the relative surface area of the continent and its demographic weight o PG UIF XPSME T TVSGBDF BSFB PG JUT population.

-FU VT GPDVT PO 4PVUIFBTU "TJB )FSF JT B SFQSFTFOUBUJPO CZ EFDBEF PG UIF number of recorded disasters for the eleven DPVOUSJFT JO UIF SFHJPO TFF HSBQI OFYU QBHF /VNCFS PG /BUVSBM %JTBTUFST JO 4PVUIFBTU Asian by Type).

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Graph

6

Number of Natural Disasters in Southeast Asia by Type

250 200 150 100

1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009

50

Forest Fire

Eruption

Storm

Landslide

Rockslide

Flooding

Epidemic

Earthquake

Drought

0

Source: www.emdat.be

Graph

7

Distribution of Principal Types of Natural Disaster by Country, 2000-2009

90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0

Earthquake Séisme

Flooding Inondation

Landslide Glissement de terrain

Source: www.emdat.be

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Storms Tempête

We can observe a rise in the number of disasters linked to the potential impact PG DMJNBUF DIBOHF o øPPET TUPSNT 'PS FBSUIRVBLFT UIJT JT EVF UP UIF QMBDFT BòFDUFE CZ UIFTF IB[BSET XIJDI JT UP TBZ UP UIFJS demographic dynamic and population TFF HSBQI QSFWJPVT QBHF %JTUSJCVUJPO PG UIF 1SJODJQBM 5ZQFT PG /BUVSBM %JTBTUFST CZ $PVOUSZ The distribution of types of disaster by DPVOUSZ̓ IJHIMJHIUT B HSFBU EJWFSTJUZ B CJH QMBDF GPS øPPEJOH B MBSHF OVNCFS PG DZDMPOFT JO UIF 1IJMJQQJOFT BOE JO 7JĚ?U /BN BOE FBSUIRVBLFT JO *OEPOFTJB * FODPVSBHF ZPV UP XPSL PO UIJT EBUBCBTF CZ VTJOH JU UP BOTXFS ZPVS PXO RVFTUJPOT

1.3.2. Southeast Asia, One of The Most Affected Regions -FU VT OPX UBLF B MPPL BU UIF SFHJPO T DIBSBDUFSJTUJDT BT GBS BT FYQPTVSF UP

Map

3

HFPHSBQIJDBM BOE IZESP DMJNBUJD IB[BSET BSF DPODFSOFE ÂŚ (FP QIZTJDBM DPOKVODUJPO PG GPVS NBKPS UFDUPOJD QMBUFT o *OEP "VTUSBMJBO 1IJMJQQJOF &VSBTJBO BOE 1BDJĂśD CFUXFFO BOE UIFSF XFSF NPSF UIBO B IVOESFE FBSUIRVBLFT PG NBHOJUVEFT BCPWF UXP UIJSET PG XIJDI XFSF JO *OEPOFTJB B IJHI concentration of volcanoes in the Sunda "SD o 4VNBUSB .PMVDDBT 1IJMJQQJOFT 5BJXBO BDUJWF WPMDBOPFT JO *OEPOFTJB̓o TJODF NPSF UIBO EJTQMBDFE persons; and twenty or so active volcanoes in the Philippines; ÂŚ )ZESP DMJNBUJD QFSUVSCBUJPOT QPUFOUJBMMZ MJOLFE UP DMJNBUF DIBOHF NPOTPPOT DMJNBUJD TFBTPOT USPQJDBM EFQSFTTJPOT BOE high rainfall. This map of the routes of tropical cyclones underlines the degree to which Southeast "TJB JT FYQPTFE QBSUJDVMBSMZ UIF 1IJMJQQJOFT BOE NPSF QBSUJBMMZ 7JĚ?U /BN

Tracks of Tropical Cyclones Between 1985 and 2005

Source: Nilfanion (2006) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Global_tropical_cyclone_tracks-edit2.jpg

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Map

4

Perturbations linked to the El NiĂąo Phenomenon

Source: www.srh.noaa.gov/jetstream

)FSF JT UIF JOøVFODF PG UIF DMJNBUJD phenomenon “El NiĂąoâ€? UIF SFHJPOBM DPOTFRVFODF PG B QFSUVSCBUJPO JO UIF HFOFSBM atmospheric circulation between the poles BOE UIF FRVBUPS 5IF EJTQMBDFNFOU PG NBTTFT of warm water disrupts rainfall patterns BOE̓ DSFBUFT B EFDSFBTF JO NPOTPPO SBJOT notably in the Asian part.

SJWFST BOE EFMUBT .FLPOH *SSBXBEEZ Red River); Œ 'SBHNFOUBUJPO PG *OEPOFTJBO UFSSJUPSZ JTMBOET BOE UIF 1IJMJQQJOFT JOTVMBS and continental parts of certain States (Malaysia).

1.3.3. Physical Milieu, Population and Development

The deltas constitute potentially dangerous CVU GFSUJMF [POFT UIBOLT UP UIFJS TFEJNFOU floods due to river swelling but also tides; high tides bringing in seawater; flooding of coastal areas. Wave swell has a considerable capacity to erode. Rainfall is also considerable with its underlying issues of evacuation and swamping of low-lying land.

The Land Domain The predominance of hilly and mountainous [POFT JT B QBSUJDVMBSJUZ PG 4PVUIFBTU "TJB 5XP UIJSET PG MBOE JT BU NPSF UIBO N BCPWF TFB MFWFM BOE IBMG BCPWF N The contrast between the continental and JTMBOE [POFT JT TUSJLJOH − The importance of continuous and IPNPHFOPVT UFSSJUPSJFT o .ZBONBS 5IBJMBOE 7JĚ?U /BN -BPT $BNCPEJB CJH

The region is thus characterised by strong DPOUSBTUT PG FYQPTVSF

4PNF PG UIFTF EFMUBT BSF FYQBOEJOH environments. As a result of flooding and SJWFS TXFMMJOH SJWFS EZOBNJDT NBZ USJHHFS BO increase in the level of the riverbed causing it to dominate the surrounding land – case of the Red River.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Two principal types of deltaic development IBWF CFFO JEFOUJÜFE Œ 5IF *OEJBO UZQF *SSBXBEEZ .FLPOH XJUI øPPEJOH QBSUJBM NBTUFSZ PG XBUFS XJUI GFX PME EZLFT FYDFQU GPS OBWJHBCMF CSBODIFT TFNJ JOUFOTJWF BHSJDVMUVSF BOE B MBSHF presence of mangroves on marshy coast;

Diagram

2

− The Chinese type (Red River) with a big SFEVDUJPO JO øPPEJOH BODJFOU NBTUFSZ of water and containment – agricultural hydrology with canals and drains; artificialised water circulation and reworked model; intensive agriculture BOE̓ FYUFSOBM JOQVU PG GFSUJMJTFS IJHIMZ organised maintenance using substantial resources.

Indian and Chinese Systems of Hydrological Development

Source: Author’s construction.

5IF *OEJBO TZTUFN QSFTFOUT B MJUUMF NPEJĂśFE environment with slight development. 7VMOFSBCJMJUZ JT NPEFSBUFE 5IF IB[BSE JT hardly changed; we are in a situation of SJTL BDDFQUBODF *O UIF $IJOFTF TZTUFN UIF FOWJSPONFOU JT BSUJĂśDJBM EFWFMPQNFOUT BSF

substantial and permanent; vulnerability is potentially increased but the recurrence of UIF IB[BSE JT MFTT 8F BSF NPSF JO B TJUVBUJPO of risk prevention and no longer one of acceptance.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Map

5

Forest Cover in Southeast Asia

Source: Foucher, 2002.

5IF EBSL [POFT SFQSFTFOU EFOTF GPSFTU the grey ones secondary or degraded forests UIBU BSF TPNFUJNFT DPNCJOFE XJUI DSPQT BOE JO XIJUF BOOVBM DSPQT QBEEZ ĂśFMET and dry crops) that can be associated with savannah regions. A dynamic map of forest cover in Southeast Asia would however show how much forest area has been reduced since the middle of UIF th̓DFOUVSZ 4VNBUSB ,BMJNBOUBO 1BQVB /FX (VJOFB FUD CFDBVTF PG FDPOPNJD EZOBNJDT QPQVMBUJPO TFUUMFNFOU QPMJDJFT and the general pressure of demographic weight on resources. We can refer to FrĂŠdĂŠric Durand’s map “Asies Nouvellesâ€? 'PVDIFS in particular.

5IF DPOTFRVFODFT MJOLFE UP TVDI deforestation are multiple; they result in BO JODSFBTFE FYQPTVSF PG MBOE UP SVO Pò QIFOPNFOB BU UJNFT PG IFBWZ SBJO ÂŚ *NQBDU PO SJWFS SFHJNFT GSFRVFODZ BOE TJ[F̓PG TXFMMJOH øBTI TXFMMJOH BOE øPPEJOH − Potential increase in erosion and sediment load (diminution of soil fertility and land slides); − Potential decrease of water resources available during the dry season as a result of a decline in the amount of water (weaker sources and flows).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

The Maritime Domain

Population Discontinuities

The Southeast Asian maritime domain JT QBSUJDVMBSMZ CJH UIF NBSJUJNF BSFB JT ̓ NJMMJPO̓ LN NJMMJPO GPS UIF UFSSFTUSJBM EPNBJO UIF IJHIFTU TFB MBOE SBUJP PG BMM UIF regions in the world. The coastal territory PG BMM UIFTF DPVOUSJFT JT DPOTJEFSBCMF FYDFQU GPS̓ -BPT XIJDI JT MBOEMPDLFE This characteristic makes them naturally concerned by the problems concerning the SJTF JO TFB MFWFMT UIF PDDVSSFODF PG UTVOBNJT and the vulnerabilities of certain countries.

Over the last century the region has FYQFSJFODFE B WFSZ MBSHF EFNPHSBQIJD HSPXUI o GSPN UP NJMMJPO JOIBCJUBOUT BQQSPYJNBUFMZ (MPCBMMZ UIF EFNPHSBQIJD USBOTJUJPO CFHBO JO UIF T o EFNPHSBQIJD HSPXUI PG PWFS UIF QFSJPE BOE GPS 4UJMM UPEBZ 4PVUIFBTU̓ "TJB SFNBJOT SVSBM XJUI TUSPOH DPOUSBTUT IPXFWFS CFUXFFO UIF JOTVMBS QBSU XIJDI JT NPSF VSCBO BOE UIF DPOUJOFOUBM part.

Table

2

Population Data for the 11 Southeast Asian Countries

Source: Jones, 2013.

*OEPOFTJB JT UIF SFHJPO T IFBWZ XFJHIU 5IF country represents more than one third of the region’s total population. The region’s QPQVMBUJPO EFOTJUZ JT DPOUSBTUFE OFBSMZ JOIBCJUBOUT LN in Vietnam against ̓JOIBCJUBOUT LN JO -BPT

"T GBS BT FYQPTVSF BOE WVMOFSBCJMJUZ BSF DPODFSOFE UIF EJTBTUSPVT FòFDU PG B IB[BSE XJMM CF QBSUJDVMBSMZ EJòFSFOUJBUFE

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Map

6

Population Densities in Southeast Asia

Source: Global Center for Geographic Information and Analysis, Department of Geography, UC Santa Barbara.

5IF NBQ ESBXO JO FNQIBTJTFT UIF iFNQUZ BOE GVMMw EFNPHSBQIJD TQBDFT ÂŚ i'VMMw XPSME +BWB *TMBOE UIF 1IJMJQQJOFT DPBTUBM [POFT BOE DFOUSBM QMBJOT UIF .FLPOH $IBP 1ISBZB BOE *SSBXBEEZ UIF central plains are the most populated; ÂŚ i&NQUZ XPSMEw PSJHJOBMMZ GPSFTU TQBDFT (hilly and mountain areas). These two types of space also reflect QPQVMBUJPO EFWFMPQNFOU TUSBUFHJFT MBSHF population concentrations on the fertile QMBJOT BOE EFMUBT BODJFOU EFNPHSBQIJD concentrations on the Red River Delta. *O UIF JTMBOE QBSUT QPQVMBUJPO JT FTTFOUJBMMZ concentrated along the coasts and results from the environment’s potentialities and

HFPHSBQIJDBM DPOEJUJPOT o BQBSU GSPN JO +BWB JOIBCJUBOUT LN ) and the Philippines â€“ but also from the way the societies are PSHBOJTFE BOE UIFJS IJTUPSJDBM USBKFDUPSJFT 0O UIF DPOUJOFOUBM QBSU UIF MPHJD IBT been dictated by the big agrarian kingdoms TVDI BT UIPTF JO .ZBONBS JO 5IBJMBOE UIF̓ ,JOHEPN PG "OHLPS JO $BNCPEJB BOE the Red River Delta – unlike the maritime trading posts that focused on commercial FYDIBOHFT XJUI UIF .VTMJN TVMUBOBUFT PG insular Southeast Asia. 8IBU BCPVU UIF VSCBO XPSME The world of the city dweller concerns above all the insular part.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Map

7

Population in East Asian Cities

Source: Gill and Kharas, 2007. http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIAPACIFIC/Resources/226262-1158536715202/EARen_map5_population.jpg

5IF DJUJFT BSF TJUVBUFE JO [POFT XIFSF UIFSF BSF IJHI DPODFOUSBUJPOT PG QPQVMBUJPO BMPOH UIF DPBTUT JO UIF JOTVMBS QBSUT BOE on the great plains and along the rivers in the continental parts – with considerably TJ[FE BHHMPNFSBUJPOT XIFO JODMVEJOH conurbations and the metropolitan dimension. Urban hyper-concentration DPODFSOT NBOZ DPVOUSJFT XJUI POF VOJRVF BOE QSFEPNJOBOU DJUZ o UIF DBTF PG #BOHLPL UIF FYDFQUJPO JT 7JĚ?U /BN XJUI JUT )Ă‹ /Ě˜J )Ě•Íƒ$IĂ“ .JOI $JUZ CJQPMBSJUZ The origins of the locations of the big BHHMPNFSBUJPOT BSF NVMUJQMF ÂŚ "ODJFOU JNQMBOUBUJPOT DFOUSBMJTFE BHSBSJBO LJOHEPNT DPBTUBM TVMUBOBUFT

ÂŚ 3FDFOU IJTUPSJDBM FWFOUT XJUI UIF DPMPOJTJOH of independent states that built their FDPOPNZ PO USBEF BOE FYQPSU UZQF NPEFMT o̓QSPYJNJUZ UP UIF TFB QPSUT − A self-sustaining phenomenon with a DPODFOUSBUJPO PG VOJWFSTJUJFT SFTFBSDI DFOUSFT BOE KPCT JO UIF DJUJFT This urban concentration has a price because of highly localised pollution QSPCMFNT VSCBO̓ BOE BHSJDVMUVSBM DIBMMFOHFT o EJNJOVUJPO PG BHSJDVMUVSBM MBOE SPBE DPOHFTUJPO QSPYJNJUZ UP UIF TFB BOE SJWFST that makes the city potentially more fragile when faced with possible maritime or fluvial IB[BSET

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Table

3

Development Indicators for the 11 Southeast Asian Countries

Source: Jones, 2013 and www.unescap.org

The Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA) has included human development indices to characterise a map of vulnerability and capacity to resist a potential disaster. *O UIF UBCMF XF DBO TFF EJòFSFOU JOEJDBUPST TVDI BT UIF (SPTT /BUJPOBM 1SPEVDU (/1 MJGF FYQFDUBODZ BOE QPWFSUZ BOE JOFRVBMJUZ SBUFT XIJDI EFNPOTUSBUF UIF FYUSFNF EJWFSTJUZ PG the sub-region. *OFRVBMJUJFT BSF BMTP WFSZ QSFTFOU XJUIJO UIFTF DPVOUSJFT JO UIF MPX MZJOH [POFT XF ÜOE VSCBOJTBUJPO JOEVTUSJBMJTBUJPO BOE JOUFOTJWF agriculture geared toward urban markets BOE FYQPSU o UIJT DSFBUFT FOWJSPONFOUBM problems because of the reduction of NBOHSPWF [POFT CVU BMTP GPS FYBNQMF UIF

weakening of a productive system that GPDVTFT FYDMVTJWFMZ PO B GFX DSPQT JO UIF IJHIMBOE [POFT XF ĂśOE UIF FòFDUT PG SFDFOU DPMPOJTBUJPO o̓ USBOTNJHSBUJPOT JO *OEPOFTJB pioneer fronts â€“ and the development of DBTI DSPQT QBMN PJM TQJDFT SVCCFS DPQSB etc.) that necessitate a clearing of the land. 5PEBZ 5IBJMBOE BOE UIF 1IJMJQQJOFT BSF XPPE importers as their forestry area is less than PG UIFJS UFSSJUPSZ .PSF SFDFOUMZ UIF NVMUJQMJDBUJPO PG FMFDUSJDBM power generating dams in the upper rivers NBZ QSPWPLF B DIBOHF JO SJWFS øPX UIF blocking of alluvium and a reduction in flow in low water periods for the regions of these countries that lie downstream from these dams.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Map

8

Dam Projects on the Mekong

Source: http://www.internationalrivers.org/campaigns/mekong-mainstream-dams

On this map of the Mekong from Cambodia UP $IJOB XF DBO PCTFSWF CPUI FYJTUJOH BOE planned dams. The stakes are very high for UIF SJWFS T XBUFS SFTPVSDFT QSJODJQBMMZ BT GBS BT hydroelectricity is concerned. #BTFE PO UIF IVNBO EFWFMPQNFOU JOEJDBUPST PG FBDI DPVOUSZ BOE GPS FBDI SFHJPO &&14&" has elaborated a map of the adaptation

potential of each country in the face of disasters and climate change. 5IJT SBJTFT UIF RVFTUJPO BT UP UIF VUJMJTBUJPO PG UIF UPPM TUSJLJOH B CBMBODF CFUXFFO UIF EJòFSFOU JOEJDBUPST DIPJDF PG JOEJDBUPST characterisation of the diversities between countries and the local dimension of vulnerabilities.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Map

9

Adaptive Capacity Index in Southeast Asia

Source: Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA); International Development Research Center (IDRC), 2009.

Map

10 Vulnerability to Climate Change Index in Southeast Asia

Source: Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA); International Development Research Center (IDRC), 2009.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

5IF EFMUBJD SFHJPOT BT XFMM BT UIF IJHIMBOE SFHJPOT BSF DMBTTJÜFE BT CFJOH WVMOFSBCMF to climate change – when we include the capacity of the societies themselves to face VQ UP PS OPU TJUVBUJPOT PG FNFSHFODZ BOE crisis.

1.3.4. Conclusions 8F DBO OPUF B IJHI FYQPTVSF PG 4PVUIFBTU "TJB UP IB[BSET XJUI VODFSUBJOUJFT MJOLFE UP climate change. Their vulnerabilities are a QSPEVDU PG IJTUPSZ BOE MJOLFE UP FDPOPNJD technological and political choices. $VMUVSBM UFNQPSBM BOE TQBUJBM WBSJBCJMJUZ NBZ̓CF DMBTTJĂśFE BDDPSEJOH UP − The departments and regions within a same country; − The development path of societies; − The societies and type of player. 5IF TPDJFUJFT BOE UZQF PG QMBZFS o DJUJ[FOT populations of low-lying areas and of IJHIMBOET o BSF FYQPTFE JO EJòFSFOU XBZT EFQFOEJOH PO JOUFSOBM SFTPVSDFT TFSWJDFT and links with institutions (spatial variability). A given region may today become vulnerable because of human and economic challenges present there (temporal variability). This variability must be addressed on EJòFSFOU̓TDBMFT NBDSP DPVOUSZ BOE SFHJPOBM CVU BMTP PO B TNBMMFS HSPVQ MFWFM PO BO individual one.

Selective Bibliography #36/&5 3 FE Asie du Sud-Est OcĂŠanie, GĂŠographie universelle̓ #FMJO 3FDMVT 1BSJT %& ,0/*/$, 3 L’Asie du Sud-Est̓ "SNBOE $PMJO DPMM 6 1BSJT '06$)&3 . FE Asies nouvelles̓ #FMJO 1BSJT (*-- * BOE ) ,)"3"4 An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth 8PSME #BOL 8BTIJOHUPO % $ +0/&4 ( 8 The Population of Southeast Asia, Asia Research Institute 8PSLJOH 1BQFS 4FSJFT /o Q /*-'"/*0/ IUUQ FO XJLJQFEJB PSH XJLJ 'JMF (MPCBM@USPQJDBM@DZDMPOF@USBDLT FEJU KQH 3&7&5 4 1FOTFS FU BòSPOUFS MFT EĂ?TBTUSFT̓ VO QBOPSBNB EFT SFDIFSDIFT FO TDJFODFT TPDJBMFT FU EFT QPMJUJRVFT JOUFSOBUJPOBMFT Critique internationale OÂĄÍƒ :646' " " BOE ) '3"/$*4$0 Climate Change Vunerability Mapping for 4PVUIFBTU "TJB EEPSEA Special and Technical Paper &DPOPNZ BOE &OWJSPONFOU 1SPHSBN for Southeast Asia (EEPSEA).

Exchanges‌ Jean-Philippe TorrÊton The presentation addressed natural and DMJNBUJD IB[BSET DPVME XF OPU BMTP JODMVEF FQJEFNJPMPHZ JO UIFTF IB[BSET &DPOPNJD DPSSJEPST BSF EFWFMPQJOH XJUI DPOTFRVFODFT JO UFSNT PG EJTFBTF EJTUSJCVUJPO TVDI BT "*%4 Population displacements result in increased SJTL PG [PPOPTFT UISPVHI UIF EJTQMBDFNFOU PG animal resources – we can also think of the

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

pathogenic risks linked to rice or to other QMBOUT PG NBKPS JOUFSFTU JO 4PVUIFBTU "TJB .Z TFDPOE RVFTUJPO DPODFSOT IPX SFTJMJFODF JT FTUJNBUFE *O NZ PQJOJPO POF PG UIF important factors in a country’s resilience JT JUT SFTPVSDFT JUT NFBOT BOE JUT UZQF PG governance – a big national decision-making DBQBDJUZ JO UIF DBTF PG 7JĚ?U /BN DPNQBSFE XJUI UIF 1IJMJQQJOFT GPS FYBNQMF XIFSF governance is greater at a regional level. Jean-Philippe Fontenelle These are the tool’s limits. Presenting this DBSUPHSBQIZ HBWF VT B TVQQPSU UP RVFTUJPO 5IFSF BSF BMSFBEZ NBOZ RVFTUJPOT BCPVU UIF data presented and methods of integrating UIFN 1VCMJD EBUB XFSF VTFE BDDPSEJOH UP UIF DPVOUSZ IPXFWFS UIF TBNF EBUB XJMM CF EJòFSFOU EFQFOEJOH PO UIF QSPUPDPMT We have to relativise the precise value of the data. As for including epidemiological EBUB UIJT SBJTFT UIF RVFTUJPO PG UIFJS XFJHIUJOH JO SFMBUJPO UP FBDI PUIFS *U JT B NFUIPEPMPHJDBM̓ RVFTUJPO BCPVU UIF XBZ JO which the maps are constructed and how UIF EJòFSFOU FMFNFOUT BSF XFJHIUFE " MBSHF part was devoted to human development indicators. 8IFO XF MPPL BU UIF JOTUJUVUJPOT GPSNT PG PSHBOJTBUJPO XBSOJOH TZTUFNT BOE development management in the Red 3JWFS %FMUB PG øVWJBM JOGSBTUSVDUVSFT XF can observe strong competences as far as PSHBOJTBUJPO DPPSEJOBUJPO BOE SFDPSEJOH information to monitor a given system are concerned. Alexis Drogoul (MPCBMMZ GPMMPXJOH UIF UTVOBNJ UIFSF was a greater awareness in the whole sub-

region resulting in integrated systems that were more or less developed but globally interconnected. There has been a new regional awareness about a certain OVNCFS PG SJTLT UIBU NBZ BòFDU EJòFSFOU DPVOUSJFT XJUI̓ WBSJBUJPOT BDDPSEJOH UP FBDI country and its degree of development and BEWBODFNFOU 7JĚ?U /BN IBT JNQMFNFOUFE BO advanced warning station that is among the CFTU JO UIF SFHJPO QBSUJDVMBSMZ GPS TFJTNJD SJTL 'PMMPXJOH UIF USBHJD FWFOUT PG BOE UIF UTVOBNJ JO +BQBO UIF NVOJDJQBMJUJFT PG UIF CJH DJUJFT BMPOH UIF DFOUSBM DPBTU PG 7JĚ?U /BN CFDBNF BXBSF PG UIF EBOHFST o UIF FYBNQMF PG ĂĽĂ‹ /̆OH XIJDI JO PSHBOJTFE B full-scale evacuation of the city with the installation of signals in case of tsunamis. Vanessa Manceron .Z RVFTUJPO JT BCPVU UIF BSUJDVMBUJPO CFUXFFO̓ WVMOFSBCJMJUZ BOE UIF QSFTFODF PS BCTFODF PG̓IB[BSET :PV NBLF B DPOOFDUJPO between a society that would have a QFSNBOFOU XBUFS NBOBHFNFOU UFDIOJRVF TPMJE BOE TVTUBJOBCMF JOGSBTUSVDUVSF B RVJUF JOUFOTJWF FDPOPNZ BOE GFXFS IB[BSET CVU B greater vulnerability. This is linked to the distinction between agricultural systems and hunter-gatherer TZTUFNT IVOUFS HBUIFSFST MJWF JO BCVOEBODF JO B TPDJFUZ UIBU JT MFTT TVCKFDUFE UP IB[BSET GBSNFST IPXFWFS BSF NPSF EFQFOEFOU PO UIF SFTPVSDFT UIFZ QSPEVDF UIFZ BSF unable to get up and provide for their basic SFRVJSFNFOUT CZ NPWJOH CZ HPJOH UP MPPL GPS other resources. 'VSUIFSNPSF DPVME ZPV DPOĂśSN GPS VT UIBU the more a society protects itself against IB[BSET UIF NPSF JU MPXFST JUT QPXFST PG SFTJMJFODF

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Jean-Philippe Fontenelle *G XF UBLF GPSNT PG JOUFOTJWF QSPEVDUJPO technical capital (services) and knowledge JT JNQPSUBOU 5IF TZTUFN JT FóDJFOU CVU JUT performance slot is narrow and depends on the maintaining of the conditions UIBU BSF GBWPVSBCMF UP JUT FóDJFODZ 5IVT water mastery allows us to reduce the SJTLT QPUFOUJBMMZ HFOFSBUFE CZ IB[BSET such as drought and flooding. At the same UJNF UIF DPOEJUJPOT GPS NBJOUBJOJOH UIF potential of water mastery necessitate the development of very elaborate technical BOE PSHBOJTBUJPOBM̓TZTUFNT UIBU KVTUJGZ CFJOH continually adapted to possible changes JO UIF̓ FOWJSPONFOU OPUBCMZ UIPTF MJOLFE to climate change. Their possible nonBEBQUBUJPO BOE FWFO XFBLFOJOH OPUBCMZ GPS SFBTPOT MJOLFE UP QPMJUJDBM DIPJDFT NBZ result in the reduction of the resilience of the populations and societies concerned. )PXFWFS UIFSF JT OP EFUFSNJOJTN BU UIJT MFWFM "GUFS DPNFT UIF RVFTUJPO PG UIF GBSNFS T BCJMJUZ UP SFBDU *O DMBTTJDBM BHSPOPNJD TUVEJFT it is considered that farmers esteemed to be poor and fragile in relation to their economy are going to opt for a diversified economy in order to minimise the risk of each component of the productive system. 'SPN̓ UIJT QPJOU PG WJFX UIF BCTFODF PG specialisation contributes to increased SFTJMJFODF BO FDPOPNZ PG FYQMPJUBUJPO based on a diversity of vegetal and animal productions will be able to better absorb IB[BSET 5IF QPTTFTTJPO PG B MBSHF NFBOT PG

QSPEVDUJPO XJUIJO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG B NPSF TQFDJBMJTFE BHSJDVMUVSF HJWFT UIF GBSNFS TVóDJFOU UIFPSFUJDBM NFBOT UP EFWFMPQ IJT QSPEVDUJPO TZTUFNT CVU IJT JOTFSUJPO JO B given sector actually creates a dependence PO UIF MBUUFS JO UFSNT PG NBSLFU LOPXMFEHF NBUFSJBM PSHBOJTBUJPO FUD XIJDI CMPDLT PS BU least slows down any possible reform. Alain Henry 4PDJFUJFT GBTIJPO TQBDF UIFZ NBTUFS PS BEBQU UIFNTFMWFT UP SJTL * TFF IFSF B QPTJUJWF convergence in the optimisation of risk NBOBHFNFOU "U UIF TBNF UJNF IJHIMZ populated milieus are not linked to an acknowledgment or an awareness of risk. We sometimes have the impression that populations rush in where they are most vulnerable. Jean-Philippe Fontenelle *G XF UBLF BT BO FYBNQMF UIF IZESP BHSJDVMUVSBM EFWFMPQNFOUT XF BSF UIJOLJOH BCPVU FYUSFNFMZ MPOH UJNF QFSJPET 'PS ZFBST BOE ZFBST UIF FNQFSPST BTLFE UIF TBNF RVFTUJPO SFHBSEJOH UIF NBJOUFOBODF PG UIF̓ EZLFT PO UIF 3FE 3JWFS 4IPVME XF DPOUJOVBMMZ EFWFMPQ UIFN 4IPVME XF OPU EFTUSPZ UIFN BT UIF NPSF EZLFT XF CVJME UIF IJHIFS UIF SJWFSCFE SJTFT 8IBU XF TFF today of the Red River Delta is the reflection of history; the landscapes reflect the many RVFTUJPOT BOE QPMJUJDBM DIBOHFT NBEF PWFS a long period of time.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

4ZTUFNJD 3JTL BOE UIF 4VCQSJNF $SJTJT 4ZNQUPNT and Mechanisms of Propagation Adrian POP โ University of Nantes [3]

5IF รถOBODJBM DSJTJT PG UIF TVNNFS PG BMTP SFGFSSFE UP BT UIF TVCQSJNF DSJTJT TIPPL PVS confidence in financial systems on a planetary TDBMF BOE IBT IBE B QFSTJTUFOU IBSNGVM FรฒFDU on real economies. According to estimations CZ UIF *OUFSOBUJPOBM .POFUBSZ 'VOE *.' BCPVU POF รถGUI PG UIF XPSME T (SPTT /BUJPOBM 1SPEVDU (/1 MJUFSBMMZ FWBQPSBUFE CFDBVTF of the crisis that observers believe was the XPSTU TJODF UIF (SFBU %FQSFTTJPO PG UIF T 5IF *.' T FTUJNBUJPOT JODMVEF UIF JOKFDUJPOT PG QVCMJD NPOFZ JOUP CJH CBOLT considered as being โ systemicโ or โ too big to GBJMw UIF DPTUT BTTPDJBUFE XJUI UIF QVSDIBTF PG TP DBMMFE iUPYJDw BTTFUT BJNFE BU GPSUJGZJOH UIF CBMBODF TIFFUT PG CBOLT UIF OPNJOBM WBMVF

of the unsecured risk mitigants granted by HPWFSONFOUT UP รถOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT BOE UIF MJRVJEJUZ GBDJMJUJFT HFOFSPVTMZ HSBOUFE CZ DFOUSBM CBOLT (SPXUI GPSFDBTUT JO NPTU countries were regularly revised downwards and recessionary factors have considerably worsened over the last years. The massive interventions of governments in financial TZTUFNT BT XFMM BT UIF NBOZ QMBOT UP TBWF BOE SF MBVODI UIF FDPOPNZ IBWF BMTP CFFO felt in national budgets. Public deficits have HSBEVBMMZ JODSFBTFE JO NPTU DPVOUSJFT BOE IBWF FYBDFSCBUFE QSPCMFNT MJOLFE UP UIF VOTVTUBJOBCJMJUZ PG UIF QVCMJD EFCU (SFFDF BOE NPSF SFDFOUMZ $ZQSVT BSF FYUSFNF FYBNQMFT PG UIJT 'JOBMMZ BDDPSEJOH UP UIF

< > 5IF BVUIPS XPVME MJLF UP UIBOL "MBJO )FOSZ GPS IJT VTFGVM SFNBSLT EVSJOH UIF TVNNJOH VQ PG UIF QMFOBSZ TFTTJPOT 4Uร QIBOF -BHSร F GPS IJT JSSFQSPBDIBCMF PSHBOJTBUJPO PG UIF +5% :WFT 1FSSBVEFBV GPS IJT FODPVSBHFNFOU BT XFMM BT "MFYJT %SPHPVM BOE UIF PUIFS QBSUJDJQBOUT JO UIF +5% GPS UIFJS TUJNVMBUJOH SFNBSLT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

*OUFSOBUJPOBM -BCPVS 0ĂłDF *-0 UIF DVSSFOU financial crisis is responsible for the increase JO UIF UPUBM OVNCFS PG VOFNQMPZFE SJTJOH GSPN ̓ NJMMJPO JO UP NJMMJPO JO 5IF̓TQFDUBDVMBS SJTF PG VOFNQMPZNFOU JO NPTU DPVOUSJFT CPUI JO EFWFMPQFE BOE EFWFMPQJOH POFT JT MJLFMZ UP FYBDFSCBUF UIF TPDJBM UFOTJPOT UIBU NJHIU JO UVSO SFJOGPSDF UIF OFHBUJWF FòFDUT PG UIF DSJTJT PO SFBM economies. The aim of this chapter is to discuss the USJHHFST UIF TZNQUPNT BOE UIF PSJHJOBMJUZ of the subprime crisis. We shall describe the principal mechanisms of the propagation of UIF TIPDL XBWF BOE BUUFNQU UP FYQMBJO UIF role of the securitisation of credit in the crisis BOE JUT iWJSBMw BTQFDU BOE UIFO XF TIBMM QSFTFOU UIF EJòFSFOU GBDFUT PG TZTUFNJD SJTL EFĂśOFE BT the risk of the collapse of the financial system. 'JOBMMZ XF TIBMM QSPQPTF B GFX DPODMVEJOH remarks and a glossary of technical terms so as to make understanding easier.

1.4.1. The Property Loan Crisis in the United States: Symptoms and Originality As in all other financial crises that occurred JO̓ UIF QBTU UIF DSJTJT UIBU CFHBO JO UIF TVNNFS̓ PG JOUSPEVDFE JOUP FWFSZEBZ MBOHVBHF B XIPMF SBOHF PG FYPUJD UFSNT and abstruse acronyms. Subprime "MU " Securitisation 0 % "#4 $1#4 .#4 3.#4 $%0T $%0 $-0T $%4 417T 417 leits DPOTUJUVUF KVTU B GFX FYBNQMFT UBLFO GSPN B NVDI MPOHFS MJTU *O UIJT TFDUJPO XF TIBMM FYQMBJO B GFX PG UIFTF UFSNT XIJMF UBLJOH

B MPPL BU UIF DBVTFT PG UIF DSJTJT BOE JUT symptoms and originality. The reader who wishes to learn more about these topics will greatly benefit from referring to the XPSLT RVPUFE BU UIF FOE PG UIJT DIBQUFS (cf. particularly Artus et al #BORVF EF 'SBODF #BSUI (PSUPO 3JDIBSETPO BOE "DIBSZB 4RVBN -BLF 3FQPSU (FOFSBMMZ TQFBLJOH TVCQSJNF MPBOT designate a particular class of mortgage granted to American households to facilitate their access to the housing market. These NPSUHBHFT XIJDI BSF SFMBUJWFMZ NPSF SJTLZ UIBO IJHIFS RVBMJUZ QSJNF NPSUHBHFT were granted to households presenting B IJHI QSPCBCJMJUZ PG EFGBVMU IBWJOH MPX SFWFOVFT B SBUIFS DIFRVFSFE CPSSPXJOH IJTUPSZ SFJNCVSTFNFOU QSPCMFNT QBZNFOU EFMBZT EFGBVMUT FUD BOE BO FYDFTTJWF EFCU̓ SBUJP EFCU SFWFOVF HFOFSBMMZ BCPWF < > "OPUIFS DMBTT PG NPSUHBHF MPBOT XIPTF DSFEJU RVBMJUZ JT JOUFSNFEJBSZ BOE which comes between prime and subprime MPBOT JT LOPXO BT alternative-A or alt-A. The latter were granted to households that were SFMBUJWFMZ NPSF DSFEJUXPSUIZ CVU XIJDI POMZ possessed incomplete references; future borrowers only had to supply minimal information concerning their incomes. "O̓ FYUSFNF FYBNQMF JT UIF No-Income-NoJob-No-Asset MPBO /*/+" PS UIF iHIPTU MPBOw which was granted without documentary evidence. All these loans were guaranteed by the value of the mortgaged property that played the role of collateral.

< > 5IF "NFSJDBO 5SFBTVSZ %FQBSUNFOU EFĂśOFT TVCQSJNF CPSSPXFST BT GPMMPXT “Subprime borrowers typically have weakened credit histories that include payment delinquencies, and possibly more severe problems such as charge-offs, judgments, and bankruptcies. They may also display reduced repayment capacity as measured by credit scores, debtto-income ratios, or other criteria that may encompass borrowers with incomplete credit historiesâ€? (cf. 'FEFSBM 3FHJTUFS +VMZ̓

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

"T UIJT HSBQI TIPXT UIJT QBSUJDVMBS TFHNFOU of the credit market greatly developed in the 6OJUFE 4UBUFT GSPN POXBSET SJTJOH GSPN 64% CJMMJPO JO UP 64% CJMMJPO

Graph

8

JO CFGPSF UIF DSJTJT IJU *O SFMBUJWF UFSNT subprime and alt-A loans represented before the crisis about half the mortgage loans granted on American territory.

Share of “Subprime“ and “Alt-A“ loans in the Creation of Mortgage Loans (United States, %)

Source: Banque de France (2009).

The spectacular rise of subprime/alt-A loans DBO̓CF QBSUMZ FYQMBJOFE CZ UIF iTPDJBMw QPMJDZ that had been in place for several decades aiming to make it easier for the poorest households to access the property ladder. 'VSUIFSNPSF UIJT QPMJDZ QBSUMZ BUUBJOFE JUT PCKFDUJWF BT UIF TIBSF PG "NFSJDBO households that became homeowners had SJTFO UP OFBSMZ JO 5IF TPDJBM DMBTTFT that had benefitted the most from this “social� policy were the ethnic minorities (Afro"NFSJDBOT )JTQBOJDT FUD BT XFMM BT MPXFS JODPNF IPVTFIPMET *U JT BMTP JOUFSFTUJOH UP point out that the greater part of subprime and alt-A loans were granted by mortgage CSPLFST XIP TPNFUJNFT VTFE BCVTJWF practices (predatory loans) to take advantage PG WVMOFSBCMF BOE VOTPQIJTUJDBUFE CPSSPXFST

and who escaped all form of audit by "NFSJDBO SFHVMBUPST *U XBT UIVT QBSU PG XIBU is today retrospectively called the “parallelâ€? or iTIBEPXw CBOLJOH TZTUFN XIJDI XBT WFSZ poorly regulated. *O PSEFS UP VOEFSTUBOE CFUUFS UIF DIBSBDUFSJTUJDT PG UIF TVCQSJNF NPSUHBHF we shall illustrate the mechanism of the i)ZCSJE w NPSUHBHF XIJDI XBT XJUIPVU doubt the most popular subprime mortgage JO UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT *U JT FTTFOUJBMMZ BO BEKVTUBCMF̓ JOUFSFTU SBUF NPSUHBHF MPBO UIBU EPFT OPU SFRVJSF BOZ EPXO QBZNFOU 'PS the first two years (also called the “teasing QFSJPEw UIF CPSSPXFS EJE OPU IBWF UP pay back any part of the borrowed capital BOE UIF SBUF XBT ĂśYFE̓ BOE HFOFSBMMZ WFSZ

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

MPX )PXFWFS BU UIF FOE PG UIF iUFBTJOH QFSJPEw GPS UIF ̓ SFNBJOJOH ZFBST UIF SBUF XBT JOEFYFE UP UIF LFZ MFOEJOH SBUF PG UIF Federal Reserve or the prevailing rate on UIF JOUFSCBOL NBSLFU -*#03 UIF NBSHJO applied to these reference rates could be as NVDI BT 5IJT̓ BSSBOHFNFOU NFBOU UIBU borrowers paid reduced monthly payments PWFS UIF ĂśSTU̓ ZFBST )PXFWFS BU UIF FOE PG UIJT iUFBTJOH̓QFSJPEw UIF NPOUIMZ̓JOTUBMNFOUT XIJDI XFSF SFWJTFE VQXBSET DPVME reach levels that were intolerable for IPVTFIPME CVEHFUT FTQFDJBMMZ JO UIF DBTF of unfavourable change (i.e. upwards) of the above-mentioned reference rates.

Graph

9

#PSSPXFST XFSF OPU EJTDPVSBHFE CZ UIFTF draconian loan conditions that were implemented at the end of the “teasing periodâ€? because the sales talk of the credit CSPLFST XBT SBUIFS SFBTTVSJOH .PSF QSFDJTFMZ the arguments were based upon the hypothesis of a rise in price of real estate in the United States that would have a favourable influence on the market value of the collateral. Collateral whose value increases would allow the “refinancingâ€? of the initially obtained loan in more advantageous conditions. < >

Two-Year Real Interest Rate and Federal Funds Rate (United States, %)

(2)

(1)

Real Two­Year Rates (1)Â

Federal Reserves (2)Â

Source: Banque de France (2009).

< > .PSUHBHF SFÜOBODJOH NFDIBOJTNT PO UIF "NFSJDBO DSFEJU NBSLFU BSF JO SFBMJUZ B MPU NPSF DPNQMFY *O QBSUJDVMBS collateral appreciation (i.e. property used to guarantee repayment) allowed American households to increase their EFCU SBUJP JO QSPQPSUJPO UP UIJT BQQSFDJBUJPO BOE UIVT QPDLFU UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO UIF WBMVF PG UIF OFX MPBO UIBU XBT PCUBJOFE JO NPSF BEWBOUBHFPVT DPOEJUJPOT BOE UIBU PG UIF JOJUJBM MPBO 5IF FYUSBDUFE DBQJUBM SFGFSSFE UP BT mortgage equity withdrawals DPVME CF VTFE GPS DPOTVNQUJPO FYQFOTFT PS UP SFQBZ PUIFS MPBOT

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

"GUFS UIF CVSTU PG UIF *OUFSOFU CVCCMF JO UIF 'FEFSBM 3FTFSWF QVSTVFE BO accommodative monetary policy that was DIBSBDUFSJTFE CZ FYDFTTJWFMZ MPX JOUFSFTU SBUFT GPS TPNF ZFBST "T UIF BCPWF HSBQI TIPXT real interest rates even reached negative values for several consecutive months during UIF QFSJPE 5IF "NFSJDBO QSPQFSUZ

NBSLFU DPOUJOVBMMZ EFWFMPQFE TUJNVMBUFE CZ BO FYDFTTJWF EJTUSJCVUJPO PG DIFBQ DSFEJU %FNBOE XBT HSFBU BOE DPOUJOVPVT XIFSFBT PòFS XBT JOTVóDJFOU 1SPQFSUZ QSJDFT DPOUJOVFE UP SJTF GFE CZ UIF DSFEJU NBSLFU bubble. This rise in the price of property was PCTFSWFE JO PUIFS DPVOUSJFT OPUBCMZ JO UIF 6OJUFE ,JOHEPN BOE JO 4QBJO

Graph 10 Property Price Bubbles?

Base 100 in 1990. Source: Artus et al. (2008).

"GUFS 64 NPOFUBSZ QPMJDZ VOEFSXFOU a progressive tightening. The Federal 3FTFSWF ̓ GFBSJOH JOøBUJPOBSZ QSFTTVSF gradually raised its key interest rates from JO UP JO B ZFBS CFGPSF the crisis hit. This tightening of monetary QPMJDZ XBT RVJDLMZ USBOTNJUUFE UP UIF CBOLJOH TFDUPS BOE CBOLT SBJTFE UIFJS PóDJBM MFOEJOH rates. As most of the subprime mortgages XFSF DPOUSBDUFE BU BEKVTUBCMF JOUFSFTU SBUFT the rise in interest rates made monthly QBZNFOUT NPSF EJóDVMU 5IF QPTTJCJMJUZ PG

refinancing initial mortgages by contracting new ones in more advantageous conditions became a problem in an environment that was characterised by high interest rates. %FMJORVFODZ SBUFT SFBDIFE SFDPSE MFWFMT BU UIF FOE PG BOE UIF CFHJOOJOH PG "T BO FYBNQMF JO UIF OPO repayment levels on property loans reached SFQSFTFOUJOH NPSF UIBO POF NJMMJPO mortgage loans in default of payment. As UIF HSBQI CFMPX TIPXT EFMJORVFODZ SBUFT were significantly higher among subprime

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

CPSSPXFST XIP CFOFöUUFE GSPN BEKVTUBCMF rate loans (e.g ̓ )ZCSJE UIBO BNPOH

QSJNF CPSSPXFST XJUI 'JYFE 3BUF .PSUHBHFT (FRM).

Graph 11 Delinquency / Foreclosure Rates: Fixed Rate Mortgages (FRM) vs. Adjustable (2/28 Hybrid)

Source: Demyanyk and van Hemert (2011).

As a high number of over indebted borrowers GPVOE UIFNTFMWFT OFBS UP CBOLSVQUDZ they had no other choice but to abandon their mortgages and leave their houses to the banks. The foreclosed homes were sold BU BVDUJPOT XIJDI BNQMJöFE UIF MPXFSJOH FòFDU PO QSPQFSUZ QSJDFT 'PSFDMPTVSF SBUFT DMPTFMZ GPMMPXFE UIF FWPMVUJPO PG EFMJORVFODZ rates. A vicious circle began. The real estate NBSLFU FYQFSJFODFE B IVHF DPSSFDUJPO BOE the property price bubble burst (See graph OFYU QBHF $PSSFDUJPO PG 1SPQFSUZ 1SJDFT BOE *OUFSFTU 3BUFT 6OJUFE 4UBUFT

*U JT JOUFSFTUJOH UP FNQIBTJTF UIBU EFMJORVFODZ̓ SBUFT BNPOH BEKVTUBCMF TVCQSJNF SBUFT DBO CF FYQMBJOFE CZ UIF brutal increase of rates at the end of the iUFBTJOH QFSJPEw *OEFFE EFMJORVFODZ SBUFT CZ PSJHJOBUJPO ZFBS SFBDI UIFJS NBYJNVN MFWFMT BCPVU NPOUIT BGUFS UIF PSJHJOBUJPO EBUF XIJDI EPFT JOEFFE DPSSFTQPOE UP UIF end of the “teasing period” during which rates were low and monthly payments not UP POFSPVT 4FF HSBQI OFYU QBHF "EKVTUBCMF 3BUF 4VCQSJNF .PSUHBHFT %FGBVMU 3BUFT CZ :FBS PG 0SJHJOBUJPO

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Graph 12 Correction of Property Prices and Interest Rates (United States) In % Median Price in the Old (1) (scale to the left) Mortgage Rate (scale to the right)

(1)

Source: Artus et al. (2008).

Graph 13 Adjustable Rate Subprime Mortgages: Default Rates by Year of Origination (1)

(2) (6)

(5)

(3)

(4)

(7)

JO (7)

(6) (3)

(1) (2)

(5) (4)

Source: IMF (2007).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

'PMMPXJOH UIF QSPQFSUZ NBSLFU UIF WBMVF PG houses became lower than the value of the mortgage they were supposed to guarantee. *G UIF WBMVF PG NPSUHBHFE QSPQFSUZ GBMMT beneath the remaining amount owed on UIF NPSUHBHF "NFSJDBO IPVTFIPMET IBWF the right to declare that they are in “strategic EFGBVMUw BOE SFMJORVJTI UIF QSPQFSUZ TFSWJOH BT HVBSBOUFF UP UIF DSFEJUPS *U JT JOUFSFTUJOH to remark that strategic defaults may be resorted to even when the household has the established means to pay mortgage instalments. This situation is very specific to the US market. 5IF CVSTUJOH PG UIF QSPQFSUZ CVCCMF JO BMTP BòFDUFE DSFEJU JOTUJUVUJPOT 5IF MBUUFS which were supposed to recuperate their DSFEJU CZ TFMMJOH UIF NPSUHBHFE QSPQFSUJFT IBE NBKPS EJĂłDVMUJFT SFESFTTJOH UIFJS situation as selling the foreclosed properties was not enough to recover their losses. $POTFRVFOUMZ UIF MFOEFST IBE UP QSPDFFE with a drastic downward correction of their balance sheets and a massive depreciation of their assets. Certain credit institutions FWFO̓ XFOU CBOLSVQU XIJDI MFE UP UIF collapse of the share prices of banking stocks. We should like to wind up this section by emphasising the deeply original character of the subprime crisis. One of the most remarkable facts of the crisis was the blatant imbalance between the potential MPTTFT PG B SFMBUJWFMZ TNBMM TDBMF EVF UP subprime borrowers defaulting in one particular segment of the United States QSPQFSUZ NBSLFU PO UIF POF IBOE BOE the huge losses reported by all financial JOTUJUVUJPOT 64% CJMMJPO PG QPUFOUJBM MPTTFT PG NBSLFU̓WBMVF BT XFMM BT SFBM FòFDUT GFMU UISPVHIPVU UIF XPSME PO UIF PUIFS *OEFFE FTUJNBUFT PG MPTTFT EJSFDUMZ MJOLFE

UP CBE NPSUHBHF MPBOT BOE UIF TUSVDUVSFE financial products that are matched to these MPBOT JO UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT BSF SFMBUJWFMZ iNPEFTUw JO UIF SFHJPO PG 64%̓ CJMMJPO BDDPSEJOH UP BO *.' TUVEZ QVCMJTIFE JO BOE EP OPU BMMPX VT UP FYQMBJO DPOWJODJOHMZ UIF TFWFSJUZ BOE FYUFOU PG UIF DSJTJT UIBU TIPPL UIF XPSME ĂśOBODJBM TZTUFN -FU VT OPUF in passing that estimates for losses directly linked to subprime borrowers’ defaults in the United States are based upon the significant EFDSFBTFT JO NBSLFU WBMVF OPU PO BDUVBM SFHJTUFSFE EFGBVMUT XIJDI BSUJĂśDJBMMZ JOøBUFT UIF FTUJNBUFT SFQPSUFE CZ UIF *.' 5IF GPMMPXJOH TFDUJPO XJMM BUUFNQU UP FYQMBJO this originality by analysing the principal mechanisms of the propagation of the initial shock wave on world credit institutions and real economies.

1.4.2. Propagation Mechanisms of the “Financial Tsunamiâ€? 4JODF UIF T UIF XPSME ĂśOBODJBM system has undergone radical changes with the launch of a financial liberalisation NPWFNFOU̓ % NPWFNFOU EJTJOUFSNFEJBUJPO o EF DPNQBSUNFOUBMJTBUJPO o EFSFHVMBUJPO accompanied by the securitisation of banking balance sheets – that is to say a MBSHF IPMEJOH PG ĂśOBODJBM TFDVSJUJFT TIBSFT PCMJHBUJPOT FUD o BOE CZ B TUSPOH QSFTFODF of banks on financial and monetary markets. 'SPN UIF NJDSPFDPOPNJD QPJOU PG WJFX UIF business model of banks has undergone JO EFQUI USBOTGPSNBUJPOT OPUBCMZ BGUFS UIF T BOE UIF JNQMFNFOUBUJPO PG UIF ĂśSTU securitisation arrangements of credit through XIJDI USBEJUJPOBMMZ JMMJRVJE CBOLJOH BTTFUT were transformed into easily negotiable transferable securities.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Apart from microeconomic dysfunctions and the high-risk financial practices triggered by UIF FYDFTTFT PG TFDVSJUJTBUJPO B GFX NBKPS macroeconomic imbalances were also responsible for the crisis. Among these world macroeconomic and financial imbalances we DBO NFOUJPO − The big rise in trade surpluses of China BOE PJM FYQPSUJOH DPVOUSJFT UIBU HFOFSBUFE FYDFTTJWF MJRVJEJUZ PO B XPSMEXJEF TDBMF and which led to riskier (and thus better remunerated) investments; − The global drop in inflation and its WPMBUJMJUZ ̓ BDDPNQBOJFE CZ MFTT øVDUVBUJPO PG UIF (%1 BOE JUT DPNQPOFOUT − The persistent and generalised drop JO SJTL̓ BWFSTJPO XIJDI XBT UIF TJHO PG widespread under-evaluation of risks on the financial markets; ÂŚ 5IF MPOH UFSN GBMM JO JOUFSFTU SBUFT JO TQJUF of the tightening of US monetary policy GSPN ÂŚ 5IF FYQBOTJPO PG DIFBQ DSFEJU JO B MPX interest rate environment; ÂŚ 5IF SJTF JO BTTFU QSJDFT TUJNVMBUFE CZ FYDFTT MJRVJEJUZ 5IFTF NJDSPFDPOPNJD GBDUPST XIJDI generated the worldwide imbalances that DBVTFE UIF DSJTJT XJMM OPU CF EJTDVTTFE JO detail in this chapter. The reader who is interested will find a detailed description in Artus et al #BORVF EF 'SBODF 3JDIBSETPO BOE "DIBSZB Acharya et al BOE (PSUPO *O̓UIJT TFDUJPO XF TIBMM GPDVT PO UIF FYDFTTFT PG UIF̓ TFDVSJUJTBUJPO PG NPSUHBHF MPBOT which it is important to understand if you are going to fully understand the “viral“ aspect of the crisis.

Securitisation represents a financial UFDIOJRVF̓ UIBU DPOTJTUT JO USBOTGPSNJOH CBOLJOH DMBJNT BOE BTTFUT XIJDI BSF CZ EFĂśOJUJPO JMMJRVJE e.g NPSUHBHF MPBOT DBS CVZJOH MPBOT DSFEJU DBSE MPBOT FUD JOUP financial securities that are tradable on the DBQJUBM NBSLFU .PSF QSFDJTFMZ UIF CBOL UIBU is at the source of the operation (referred UP BT UIF JTTVFS PSJHJOBUPS PS BTTJHOPS groups together a portfolio of more or less similar claims to form a homogeneous “poolâ€?. This pool of loans is then assigned to an ad hoc investment vehicle (called 4QFDJBM̓ 1VSQPTF̓ 7FIJDMF 417 XIJDI JT B MFHBM FOUJUZ JO JUT PXO SJHIU EJTUJODU GSPN UIF initiating bank. The pool of loans thus leaves the originator’s balance sheet and becomes an asset of the investment vehicle. The latter finances the purchase price of the credit “poolâ€? by issuing debt securities to investors on capital markets. The debt securities “pertainâ€? to the same underlying credit portfolio that acts as a repayment guarantee for the investorsholders. Depending on the type of underlying DSFEJU QPSUGPMJP UIF TFDVSJUJFT JTTVFE CZ UIF JOWFTUNFOU WFIJDMF NBZ CF 3.#4 3FTJEFOUJBM̓ .PSUHBHF #BDLFE 4FDVSJUJFT JG the underlying portfolio contains mortgage MPBOT̓ VTFE UP ĂśOBODF UIF BDRVJTJUJPO PG SFTJEFOUJBM QSPQFSUJFT $.#4 $PNNFSDJBM .PSUHBHF #BDLFE 4FDVSJUJFT JG UIF VOEFSMZJOH portfolio is composed of mortgage loans for the financing of non-residential properties) PS NPSF HFOFSBMMZ "#4 "TTFU #BDLFE Securities). Each of the securities issued by the 417 TIPSU UFSN CPOET EFCU TFDVSJUJFT FUD represents a fraction of the “securitised“ loans and confers on the investor-holder the right to receive future financial flows in the form of interest and the repayment of principal.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

"T UIF HSBQI TIPXT UIF BTTFU CBDLFE securities resulting from the credit securitisation in the United States benefitted GSPN TUSPOH EFNBOE GSPN JOWFTUPST BT UIFZ promised attractive returns in a low interestSBUF FOWJSPONFOU *O UIF iTFDVSJUJTFEw

subprime mortgage loan market represented NPSF UIBO 64% CJMMJPO PG 3.#4 XIJDI EP OPU BQQFBS JO UIF HSBQI CFMPX PS PG UIF NPSUHBHF NBSLFU BOE OFBSMZ POF UIJSE of the “securitised� loan market in the United States.

Graph 14 Asset-Backed Securities and Restructured Credit (USD bn) (4)Â (3)Â (2)Â

(1)Â

(1)Â

(2)Â

(3)Â

(4)Â

Source: Banque de France (2009).

This graph reveals that an increasing share of subprime mortgage loans was securitised CFUXFFO BOE 5IF JTTVJOH PSJHJOBUJPO SBUJP PS UIF TIBSF PG TFDVSJUJTFE loans in the total of outstanding credit HSBOUFE SFBDIFE B SFDPSE MFWFM PG JO *O PSEFS UP GBDJMJUBUF UIF BTTFU CBDLFE

securities issuance and improve their QFSDFQUJPO BNPOH JOWFTUPST PO UIF NBSLFU the portfolio of securitised loans is evaluated by at least two rating agencies that publish ratings that reflect the non-payment risk of the issued securities.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Graph 15 Outstanding Securitised Subprime Loans In billions of dollarsÂ

Issues OriginationÂ

Source: Artus et al. (2008).

Financial innovation in securitisation was pushed to the limit with the creation of Collateralised Debt Obligations (CDOs). Unlike traditional securitisation packages that DPODFSO IPNPHFOPVT MPBO QPSUGPMJPT $%0T pertain to more heterogeneous portfolios of loans and financial instruments of a very diverse nature. Their specificity is the way they BSF DVU JOUP EJòFSFOU USBODIFT &BDI̓USBODIF JT defined according to a precise hierarchy and depending on subordinate status in case of default in payment in the underlying pool of MPBOT 5IF EJòFSFOU USBODIFT UIBU BSF DMBTTFE JO PSEFS PG QSJPSJUZ TVQFS TFOJPS NF[[BOJOF BOE FRVJUZ CFOFĂśU GSPN B EFDSFBTJOH PSEFS of priority for income from credits and loans included in the underlying pool and QSFTFOU RVJUF EJTUJODU SFUVSO SJTL QSPĂśMFT The graph below proposes an illustration of this structuring by tranche mechanism PG 3.#4 TFDVSJUJFT JO UIF DBTF UIBU UIF QPPM of underlying bank loans is composed of TVCQSJNF )ZCSJE̓ QSPQFSUZ MPBOT BOE ĂśYFE SBUF QSJNF NPSUHBHF MPBOT

TFF̓ HSBQI OFYU QBHF 4FDVSJUJTBUJPO PG .PSUHBHF -PBOT The equity tranche is the riskiest as it is the first to absorb losses if defaults occurs within the VOEFSMZJOH QPSUGPMJP 5IF FRVJUZ USBODIF JT generally held by the insitution that initiated the secusitisation and has no definite ex ante SBUF PG SFUVSO 0O̓ UIF̓ PUIFS IBOE profit prospects in case of non-default DBO CF QBSUJDVMBSMZ HPPE *G̓ MPTTFT̓ PO UIF VOEFSMZJOH QPSUGPMJP FYDFFE UIF TJ[F PG UIF FRVJUZ USBODIF JU JT UIF NF[[BOJOF̓ USBODIF UIBU JT OFYU JO MJOF UP BCTPSC̓UIF FYDFTT MPTT 5IF NF[[BOJOF̓ USBODIFT BSF SFMBUJWFMZ MFTT XFMM SBUFE UIBO UIF TVQFS TFOJPS̓ USBODIFT CVU HJWF IJHIFS SFUVSOT 'JOBMMZ JO UIF FYDFQUJPOBM DBTFT XIFSF EFGBVMUT QSPWF UP CF FYDFTTJWF BOE UIF MPTTFT FSPEF UIF XIPMF PG UIF TVCPSEJOBUF USBODIFT FRVJUZ BOE NF[[BOJOFT UIF IJHIFS USBODIFT TFOJPS BOE TVQFS TFOJPS XJMM TVòFS UIF MPTTFT 5IF TFOJPS and super-senior tranches are very well rated by rating agencies as they are protected

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Graph 16 Securitisation of Mortgage Loans

Source: Kendra (2007).

by the whole of the subordinate tranches. This graph summarises the link between the

subordinate status of the tranches of a CDO and their risk profile.

Graph 17 Structuring by Tranches of a Collateralised Debt Obligation (CDO)

Source: Ashcraft and Schuermann (2008).

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

*O PSEFS UP WJTVBMJTF NPSF DPODSFUFMZ UIF TUSVDUVSF PG B $%0 UIF HSBQI CFMPX QSFTFOUT UIF EJòFSFOU USBODIFT PG BO JTTVBODF NBEF JO CZ B 417 PG B CJH 64 JOWFTUNFOU CBOL The graph shows the structure by tranche TFOJPS GSPN " UP " % NF[[BOJOF GSPN . UP . BOE FRVJUZ # # BOE 9 UIF XJEUI PG FBDI USBODIF DSFEJU SBUJOHT BOE

the rates of return corresponding to each tranche. The AAA/Aaa rating corresponds UP UIF CFTU RVBMJUZ DSFEJU BOE JNQMJFT B WFSZ MPX QSPCBCJMJUZ PG EFGBVMU *U JT OFDFTTBSZ to mention that the remuneration of the EJòFSFOU USBODIFT XBT JO NPTU DBTFT IJHIFS than that of sovereign or corporate bonds of the same rating.

Graph 18 Typical Structure of a CDO: GSAMP Trust 2006-NC2 – Goldman Sachs

Source: Prospectus filed with the SEC of GSAMP 2006-NC2.

*O DFSUBJO DBTFT VOEFSMZJOH QPSUGPMJPT XFSF not composed of bank claims or mortgage MPBOT CVU PG PUIFS $%0 TFDVSJUJFT UIBU XFSF JO UVSO CBDLFE CZ CBOL MPBO QPSUGPMJPT *O UIJT DBTF XF UBML BCPVU $%0 PS FWFO $%0 (see graph below for an illustration). The structuring into tranches functioned in the TBNF XBZ BT QSFWJPVTMZ EFTDSJCFE XJUI UIF POMZ EJòFSFODF CFJOH UIBU UIF TFDVSJUJFT issued from the securitisation of credits were nested together like Russian dolls. 5IFTF TUSVDUVSFE QSPEVDUT XFSF PQBRVF

BOE WFSZ DPNQMFY JOEFFE JOWFTUPST IBE WFSZ MJUUMF JOGPSNBUJPO BU IBOE DPODFSOJOH GPS FYBNQMF UIF EFUBJMFE DPNQPTJUJPO PG UIF VOEFSMZJOH QPSUGPMJPT UIF EFGBVMU DPSSFMBUJPOT JO UIFTF QPSUGPMJPT PS UIFJS SJTL QSPĂśMF 5IF investment decision was based entirely on the credit rating given by the rating agency whose evaluation models were based upon IZQPUIFTFT UIBU XFSF RVFTUJPOBCMF UP TBZ UIF MFBTU 5IBOLT UP UIFJS BUUSBDUJWF SJTL SFUVSO SBUJP the financial securities and other structured products resulting from the securitisation of

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

credits in the United States gradually found themselves in the portfolios of individual BOE JOTUJUVUJPOBM̓ JOWFTUPST CBOLT JOTVSBODF DPNQBOJFT NVUVBM GVOET IFEHF GVOET öOBODJBM FOUFSQSJTFT QFOTJPO GVOET FUD

IFBERVBSUFSFE PVUTJEF UIF 64 UFSSJUPSZ 3JTLT were thus dissipated in the whole of the XPSME öOBODJBM TZTUFN XIJDI FYQMBJOT UIF “viral” character of the crisis.

Graph 19 “Re-Securitisation” or the Excesses of Securitisation

Source: Barth (2009).

Why did banks decide to promote such increasingly sophisticated and obscure TFDVSJUJFT QBDLBHFT 'JSTU PG BMM TFDVSJUJTBUJPO operations allowed the originators to SFJOGPSDF UIFJS TPVSDFT PG FYUSB JODPNF BT the commissions paid on these transactions XFSF WFSZ IJHI JO BO FOWJSPONFOU MFU VT SFNFNCFS UIJT PG MPX JOUFSFTU SBUFT XIFSF investors were permanently seeking returns. 4FDPOEMZ UIF OFX DSFEJU EJTUSJCVUJPO NPEFM CBTFE PO TFDVSJUJTBUJPO BMTP SFGFSSFE UP BT PSJHJOBUF UP EJTUSJCVUF PS 0 % BMMPXFE CBOLT to considerably increase the rotation speed PG MPBOT PO UIFJS CBMBODF TIFFUT XIJDI XBT interesting from a bank profitability point of WJFX *OEFFE UIF JOJUJBUJOH CBOL JOTUFBE PG

keeping the granted credits on its balance TIFFU VOUJM UIFJS öOBM NBUVSJUZ EBUF BT XBT the case in the traditional business model of BDUJWJUZ DPVME SFTFMM UIFN PO DBQJUBM NBSLFUT and thus raise funds that would allow them UP HSBOU BEEJUJPOBM DSFEJUT 'JOBMMZ UIF DSFEJU securitisation allowed banks to implement SFHVMBUPSZ BSCJUSBHF UFDIOJRVFT JO PSEFS UP artificially inflate their solvency ratios. 5IF FYDFTTFT PG TFDVSJUJTBUJPO XFSF GFMU at several levels. Rating agencies largely underestimated the inherent risks of investing JO TUSVDUVSFE öOBODJBM TFDVSJUJFT 3.#4 $.#4 "#4 $%0 $-0 $#0 FUD BT̓ UIFJS evaluation models were calibrated on a history PG WFSZ TIBMMPX EBUB BOE BO FYQBOTJPOBSZ

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

period that was characterised by a very few defaults. The hypotheses on which their models of risk evaluation were based were IJHIMZ RVFTUJPOBCMF QBSUJDVMBSMZ UIF EFGBVMU correlation that was badly taken into account JO UIF BUUSJCVUJPO PG UIF SBUJOH 'JOBMMZ UIFSF were many conflicts of interest in all the chains of the securitisation process and QBSUJDVMBSMZ CFUXFFO UIF SBUJOH BHFODJFT the initiating institutions and the SPV. For FYBNQMF UIF SBUJOH BHFODZ HBWF BEWJDF about securitisation and at the same time BUUSJCVUFE SBUJOHT UP UIF EJòFSFOU USBODIFT of financial products issued. The revenue of POF PG UIF CJH JOUFSOBUJPOBM SBUJOH BHFODJFT .PPEZ T SFTVMUJOH GSPN JUT TFDVSJUJTBUJPO DPVOTFMMJOH BDUJWJUJFT SFQSFTFOUFE PG JUT HMPCBM SFWFOVF JO The incentive scheme was also perverted at the level of the initiating bank at the source of the credit securitisation process. *O UIF USBEJUJPOBM̓ NPEFM PG UIF BDUJWJUZ UIF bank granted loans after having carefully selected potential borrowers. As the granted loans remained on the balance sheets until UIFZ SFBDIFE NBUVSJUZ JU XBT JO UIF CBOL T interest to accompany its borrowers and conscientiously monitor the progress of their financial situation throughout the period of the loan in order to limit cases of nonrepayment. The new originate-to-distribute NPEFM 0 % DIBOHFE UIJOHT SBEJDBMMZ (JWFO that the granted loans leave the bank’s balance sheet soon after the date when the NPSUHBHF DPOUSBDU XBT TJHOFE UIF JOJUJBUJOH bank has little incentive to carefully select its borrowers beforehand. Only outstanding MPBOT DPVOU BOE UIFJS RVBMJUZ B MPU MFTT BT UIF SJTLT BSF EJTTJQBUFE UIBOLT UP TFDVSJUJTBUJPO among other investors.

"T XF IBWF BMSFBEZ NFOUJPOFE UIF ĂśOBODJBM products resulting from the securitisation PG DSFEJUT XFSF DPNQMFY BOE PQBRVF BOE investors were happy to trust rating agencies UIBU BUUSJCVUFE CJBTFE SBUJOHT MBSHFMZ disconnected from the intrinsic risk profile of the asset-backed securities. From the summer PG UIF TVDDFTTJWF EFGBVMUT PG TVCQSJNF borrowers cast doubt on all the players JOWPMWFE JO UIF DSFEJU TFDVSJUJTBUJPO QSPDFTT BT XFMM BT UIF BTTPDJBUFE TFDVSJUJFT 'JSTUMZ JU XBT UIF 3FTJEFOUJBM .PSUHBHF #BDLFE 4FDVSJUJFT 3.#4 UIBU XFSF BòFDUFE 5ISPVHI B DPOUBHJPO FòFDU BMM UIF PUIFS SFMBUFE TFDVSJUJFT "#4 $%0 BOE UIFJS EFSJWBUJWFT BT XFMM BT UIF TFDVSJUJTBUJPO WFIJDMFT HSBEVBMMZ CFDBNF TVTQFDU JO JOWFTUPST FZFT XIPTF PCKFDUJWF OPX XBT UP HFU SJE PG UIFN BT RVJDLMZ as possible. The US housing market crisis thus led to a worldwide crisis of confidence about BMM UZQFT PG TFDVSJUJTFE MPBOT UIBU JODMVEFE UP B HSFBUFS PS MFTTFS EFHSFF UIF GBNPVT TVCQSJNF MPBOT "T UIF HSBQI CFMPX TIPXT the principal source of refinancing Special Purpose Vehicles (SPVs) and asset-backed DPNNFSDJBM QBQFST PS "#$1T TVEEFOMZ ESJFE VQ (FOFSBMMZ TQFBLJOH XF XJUOFTTFE B SBQJE ESZJOH VQ PG MJRVJEJUZ PO NPOFZ NBSLFUT 5IF JOUFSCBOL NBSLFU JO QBSUJDVMBS XIFSF CBOLT IBWJOH FYDFTT MJRVJEJUZ MFOU UP UIPTF UIBU MBDLFE MJRVJEJUZ DBNF VOEFS VOQSFDFEFOUFE QSFTTVSF .BTTJWF JOKFDUJPOT PG MJRVJEJUZ conducted in a synchronised fashion by DFOUSBM CBOLT JO EFWFMPQFE DPVOUSJFT POMZ succeeded in calming fears for a short time. The first stage of the subprime financial crisis o̓ UIF MJRVJEJUZ BOE DPOĂśEFODF DSJTJT o IBE already begun.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Graph 20 Outstanding Commercial Papers USD bn

Jan. Mar. 2006Â

May.Â

July.Â

Sep.Â

Nov.Â

Jan. 2007Â

Mar.Â

May.Â

July.Â

Sep.Â

Asset­Backed Non Asset­BackedÂ

Source: Banque de France (2009).

1.4.3. The Reaction of Authorities to the Spectre of Systemic Risk 5IF TQFDUBDVMBS CBOLSVQUDZ PG -FINBO #SPUIFST UIF GPVSUI MBSHFTU 64 JOWFTUNFOU CBOL JO 4FQUFNCFS DPOTUJUVUFE XJUIPVU EPVCU B NBKPS EFWFMPQNFOU JO UIF QSPHSFTT PG UIF ĂśOBODJBM DSJTJT "DDPSEJOH UP UIF PĂłDJBM CBOLSVQUDZ EPDVNFOUT UIF UPUBM PG UIF -FINBO CBMBODF TIFFUT XBT IJHIFS UIBO 64%̓ CJMMJPO BOE UIF USVTUFF SFTQPOTJCMF GPS NBOBHJOH UIF DBTF̓ JEFOUJĂśFE SFDPWFSZ SFRVFTUT *U̓XBT VORVFTUJPOBCMZ UIF biggest bankruptcy in US financial history. The financial media described the bankruptcy by resorting to a rich palette of DPMPVSGVM NFUBQIPST iA tsunami devastating the financial sector and sending shock waves around the worldâ€?; “A financial Armageddonâ€?; “The perfect storm that set off chain reactions on all world marketsâ€?; “The biggest firestorm since the Great Depressionâ€?; “A devastating

explosion for the financial worldâ€?. According UP TPNF PCTFSWFST UIF NFEJB IBWF B OBUVSBM QSPQFOTJUZ UP FYBHHFSBUF UIF IBSNGVM DPOTFRVFODFT PG UIF CBOLSVQUDZ PG CJH financial institutions; the resulting horror stories were often taken as fact by the general QVCMJD ,BVGNBOO GPS FYBNQMF BUUSJCVUFT UIJT UFOEFODZ UP FYBHHFSBUF UP UIF veil of ignorance that prevents the public GSPN VOEFSTUBOEJOH UIF DPNQMFYJUJFT PG UIF financial system. The financial system thus appears to be enveloped in a sort of deep NZTUJDJTN UIBU FYQPTFT JU FWFSZ OPX BOE BHBJO JO UJNFT PG TFWFSF DSJTJT UP ĂśDUJPOBM OBSSBUJWFT BOE FYBHHFSBUFE JOUFSQSFUBUJPOT PG its dysfunctions. 5IF -FINBO CBOLSVQUDZ EJWJEFE FDPOPNJTUT particularly concerning the precise nature of the event that had triggered the VOQSFDFEFOUFE QBOJD PG BVUVNO 5IJT̓ EFCBUF SFøFDUT UIF EFFQFS EJĂłDVMUJFT PG̓ B̓ HFOFSBM OBUVSF MJOLFE UP UIF WFSZ

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

definition of systemic risk and to the absence of consensus in the economic literature EFBMJOH XJUI UIF TVCKFDU < > According to ,BVGNBO BOE 4DPUU GPS FYBNQMF systemic risk is defined as the probability of generalised default in financial institutions. %F #BOEU BOE )BSUNBOO GPS UIFJS QBSU propose an important distinction between systemic events defined in their broader or narrower meaning. The narrower meaning stricto sensu SFGFST UP DPOUBHJPO FòFDUT PS UIF EPNJOP FòFDU XIJDI BSF QSPOF UP BNQMJGZ the bankruptcy of a financial institution by QSPQBHBUJOH UIF FòFDU UP PUIFS JOTUJUVUJPOT BOE NBSLFUT *O B CSPBEFS TFOTF TZTUFNJD events include the adverse events caused by a (macro) economic shock that simultaneously BòFDUT B MBSHF OVNCFS PG ÜOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT 8IBUFWFS UIF EFÜOJUJPO FBDI POF FNQIBTJTFT UIF ÜOBODJBM DPOUBHJPO QIFOPNFOPO XIJDI describes the propagation mechanisms of B TIPDL UIBU JOJUJBMMZ BòFDUT POF ÜOBODJBM institution and spreads to the whole financial system. Contagion phenomena are considered to be relatively more dangerous in the financial industry than in other sectors PG UIF FDPOPNZ *OEFFE UIF FDPOPNJD MJUFSBUVSF JOEJDBUFT UIBU ÜOBODJBM DPOUBHJPO (i) propagates at fast speed; (ii) BòFDUT B MBSHF number of institutions operating within the financial system; (iii) results in the bankruptcy of a large number of financial institutions and in considerable losses for creditors; (iv) is likely to trigger bankruptcies among initially financially solvent and healthy institutions

(cf ̓ ,BVGNBO BOE PUIFS SFGFSFODFT RVPUFE JO IJT BSUJDMF 'PS BMM UIFTF SFBTPOT economists generally agree to conclude that systemic risk is the more important argument in favour of public intervention in the financial system. 4JODF UIF CFHJOOJOH PG UIF "VHVTU DSJTJT many institutions that carried significant weight in the financial systems have been bailed out by the public authorities in the name of systemic risk. This was notably the DBTF GPS #FBS 4UFSOT 'BOOJF .BF 'SFEEZ .BD "NFSJDBO *OTVSBODF (SPVQ BOE $JUJHSPVQ which were all considered to be “systemicâ€? CZ UIF 64̓ HPWFSONFOU *O UIF QBSUJDVMBS DBTF PG -FINBO UIF TDFOBSJP XBT SBEJDBMMZ EJòFSFOU *OTUFBE PG DPNJOH VQ XJUI B SFTDVF QMBO UIF QVCMJD BVUIPSJUJFT EFDJEFE UP BMMPX the fourth largest investment bank in the country to go bankrupt after a few failed attempts at restructuration – the implication PG BOPUIFS IFBMUIZ CBOL SFBEZ UP BTTVNF BMM PG -FINBO’s commitments was particularly delicate because of the government’s refusal to grant subsidies in order to facilitate the transfer of assets and liabilities of the EFGBVMUJOH CBOL 5IF 64 BVUIPSJUJFT KVTUJĂśFE their decision by asserting that the players on the market had had enough time to prepare themselves for the eventual losses linked to -FINBO’s CBOLSVQUDZ .PSFPWFS -FINBO IBE benefitted from direct access to short-term MJRVJEJUZ GBDJMJUJFT QSPQPTFE CZ UIF 'FEFSBM Reserve – the Primary Dealer Credit Facility 1%$' DSFBUFE CZ UIF 'FEFSBM 3FTFSWF JO .BSDI 4FOJPS HPWFSONFOU PĂłDJBMT BMTP

< > "HMJFUUB BOE .PVUPU ,BVGNBO %F #BOEU BOE )BSUNBOO BOE ,BVGNBO BOE 4DPUU GPS̓ TZOUIFTFT .PSF SFDFOU TUVEJFT e.g 5BZMPS EFBM XJUI UIF OPUJPO PG TZTUFNJD SJTL JO UIF DPOUFYU PG UIF subprime financial crisis and emphasise the necessity to develop an operational conceptual framework to define systemic risk.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

emphasised that the two giants of the US NPSUHBHF NBSLFU 'BOOJF .BF BOE 'SFEEJF .BD UIBU IBE CFFO QMBDFE JO DPOTFSWBUPSTIJQ TJODF 4FQUFNCFS̓ IBE CFFO NVDI NPSF iTZTUFNJDw UIBO -FINBO BT UIFZ IFME in their balance sheets guarantees for more than half of the mortgages granted to US households. :FU GPS NBOZ BOBMZTUT UIF CBOLSVQUDZ PG -FINBO XBT VOEPVCUFEMZ B TZTUFNJD FWFOU "T BO FYBNQMF "DIBSZB 1IJMJQQPO 3JDIBSETPO BOE 3PVCJOJ EFTDSJCF UIF̓ CBOLSVQUDZ PG -FINBO BT B QPXFSGVM FYBNQMF PG B TZTUFNJD̓FWFOU UIBU MFE UP UIF RVBTJ CBOLSVQUDZ PG UIF öOBODJBM TZTUFN 1PSUFT BOE (PPEIBSU HP FWFO GVSUIFS CZ BóSNJOH UIBU UIF HPWFSONFOU T EFDJTJPO UP OPU CBJM PVU -FINBO XBT QSPCBCMZ the biggest political error of the subprime financial crisis. Critics generally conclude that the systemic crisis that hit in autumn NJHIU IBWF CFFO BWPJEFE JG UIF 64 government had decided to intervene and TBWF -FINBO Other economists have adopted the PQQPTJUF̓ QPJOU PG WJFX BSHVJOH UIBU JU XBT OPU UIF CBOLSVQUDZ PG -FINBO UIBU USJHHFSFE UIF̓ TZTUFNJD DSJTJT PG BVUVNO CVU UIF lack of credibility of the regulatory response UP UIF CBOLSVQUDZ 5BZMPS BOE $PDISBOF BOE ;JOHBMFT NBLF VTF PG FWFOU TUVEJFT CBTFE VQPO HSBQIJD SFQSFTFOUBUJPOT TVDI BT UIPTF SFQSPEVDFE CFMPX UP JMMVTUSBUF UIF JEFB according to which certain stress indicators in the finacnial markets (e.g UIF -JCPS 0*4

spread and the CDS spreads) only reacted very apathetically after the announcement PG UIF -FINBO CBOLSVQUDZ < > On the other IBOE UIFTF TBNF JOEJDBUPST TFFNFE UP IBWF reacted a lot more strongly and negatively to UIF SFHVMBUPSZ SFTQPOTF B GFX EBZT MBUFS PO 4FQUFNCFS *O UIF TBNF WFJO 3PHPò BSHVFT UIBU JO UIF DBTF PG -FINBO UIF government applied the right remedy at the right moment and approves the decision to OPU XBTUF UIF 64 UBYQBZFST NPOFZ CBJMJOH PVU B EFGBVMUJOH JOWFTUNFOU CBOL TFF HSBQI OFYU QBHF 5IF *NQBDU PG UIF -FINBO #BOLSVQUDZ and the Regulatory Response (TARP) on Two 4USFTT *OEJDBUPST 5P DPOUSJCVUF UP UIJT EFCBUF %VNPOUBVY BOE 1PQ DBSSJFE PVU BOBMZTFT CBTFE upon the event studies methodology that notably allows us to understand better the FòFDUT PG UIF -FINBO CBOLSVQUDZ PO UIF TVSWJWJOH̓öOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT 5IF RVFTUJPOT that these analyses attempt to answer are UIF̓GPMMPXJOH 8BT UIFSF B TJHOJöDBOU DPOUBHJPO FòFDU GPMMPXJOH UIF -FINBO CBOLSVQUDZ *G ZFT XIJDI öOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT XFSF UIF NPTU BòFDUFE CZ UIF -FINBO CBOLSVQUDZ 'JOBMMZ EJE UIF TIPDL XBWF VOJGPSNMZ BòFDU UIF TVSWJWJOH öOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT The empirical results reveal that the collateral EBNBHF PG UIF -FINBO CBOLSVQUDZ XBT significantly felt in several specific sub-groups PG JOTUJUVUJPOT OBNFMZ (i) financial services firms specialised in the same sector as -FINBO (ii) the biggest banks and financial

< > 5IF -JCPS 0*4 TQSFBE SFøFDUT UIF HBQ CFUXFFO UIF -JCPS JOUFSCBOL SBUFT BOE UIF CFODINBSL JOUFSFTU SBUF TXBQ BMTP DBMMFE 0WFSOJHIU *OUFSFTU 3BUF 4XBQ 0*4 BOE SFQSFTFOUT B TUSFTT JOEJDBUPS PO UIF JOUFSCBOL NBSLFU 5IF $%4 $SFEJU Default Swap) spread represents a measure of the cost of protection against the risk of default of a reference entity BOE JNQMJDJUMZ B NFBTVSF PG EFGBVMU SJTL

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Graph 21 The Impact of the Lehman Bankruptcy and the Regulatory Response (TARP) on Two Stress Indicators

Source: Dumontaux and Pop (2011).

öSNT XIJDI BSF BU UIF IFBSU PG UIF 64 öOBODJBM system and (iii) financial firms specialised in property loans (mortgage insurance or other TFSWJDFT MJOLFE UP QSPQFSUZ MPBOT UIBU JT UP say the activities that were the most severely BòFDUFE CZ UIF DSJTJT 5IFTF SFTVMUT BMUIPVHI JOUFSFTUJOH NVTU however be interpreted very carefully for BU MFBTU UXP SFBTPOT 'JSTUMZ HJWFO UIBU UIFSF is no consensus about the operational EFöOJUJPO̓PG UIF TZTUFNJD SJTL JO UIF MJUFSBUVSF JU JT EJóDVMU UP JOGFS GSPN FWFOU TUVEJFT JG -FINBO SFBMMZ XBT B iTZTUFNJD JOTUJUVUJPOw 4FDPOEMZ UIFTF TUVEJFT POMZ BMMPX VT UP FYBNJOF UIF TIPSU UFSN FòFDUT PG UIF -FINBO bankruptcy and thus neglect the potential QFSTJTUFOU FòFDUT JO UIF MPOH UFSN OPU POMZ PO PUIFS öOBODJBM JOTUJUVUJPOT CVU BMTP BOE above all on the real economy.

1.4.4. Conclusion 5IJT DIBQUFS QSPQPTFT B EJòFSFOU BQQSPBDI UP UIF VOJGZJOH UIFNF PG UIF +5% BCPVU UIF QFSDFQUJPO BOE NBOBHFNFOU PG SJTL by concentrating on the identification and management of vulnerabilities and risks afecting financial institutions and financial system. Particular attention was paid to UIF OPUJPO PG TZTUFNJD SJTL XIJDI XBT defined as the risk of the whole financial system collapsing. We chose to focus on the subprime crisis that is considered by most analysts to be the most severe crisis since the (SFBU %FQSFTTJPO PG UIF T 5IJT DIBQUFS IBT FYBNJOFE UIF DBVTFT UIF TZNQUPNT and the principal propagation mechanisms PG UIF öOBODJBM DSJTJT XIJMF BU UIF same time emphasising its originality. As BMSFBEZ NFOUJPOFE UIF XBWF PG EFSFHVMBUJPO BOE UIF̓ FYDFTTFT PG DSFEJU TFDVSJUJTBUJPOT were greatly responsible for the in-depth transformation of the banking business

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

NPEFM BOE VMUJNBUFMZ GPS UIF ÜOBODJBM debacle of the beginning of this century. 5IF TQFDUBDVMBS CBOLSVQUDZ PG -FINBO #SPUIFST PO 4FQUFNCFS BT XFMM as the indecisive regulatory response that JNNFEJBUFMZ GPMMPXFE TQSFBE QBOJD BNPOH investors both in the United States and on international financial markets. Systemic risk is once again in the spotlight‌

Glossary of Technical Terms ABCP (asset-backed commercial paper) = financial instrument whose remuneration stems from the cash flow of an underlying assets portfolio. ABS (asset-backed securities) = debt securities backed by a portfolio of financial assets FYDMVEJOH NPSUHBHF MPBOT DPOTVNFS MPBOT PVUTUBOEJOH DSFEJU DBSETy UIBU serve as guarantees for repayment. Basis point = one-hundredth of a per cent or PS CDO (collateralised debt obligations) = debt securities backed by portfolios composed of bank claims and other financial JOTUSVNFOUT CPOET PUIFS EFCU TFDVSJUJFT and/or credit derivatives. CDS (credit default swap) = bilateral financial contract by which a protection buyer regularly pays an insurance premium to a protection seller who commits himself to compensating losses on a reference asset (sovereign or corporate bond) in case of a DSFEJU FWFOU CBOLSVQUDZ QBZNFOU EFGBVMU PS SFTUSVDUVSJOH *U JT BO JOTVSBODF DPOUSBDU against credit risk. CLO (collateralised loan obligations) = CDO (see above) where the underlying portfolio is a homogenous pool of bank loans.

CMBS (commercial mortgage-backed securities) = debt securities backed by a mortgage loans portfolio related to the financing of non-residential properties. Collateral = guarantee serving as a repayment pledge for a mortgage loan when the borrower is in default of payment. Commercial paper = short-term financial TFDVSJUZ NBUVSJUZ MFTT UIBO POF ZFBS issued by a firm to get funding to meet its short-term financing. Credit derivative = financial product whose aim to transfer credit risk. The most TUBOEBSE FYBNQMF JT UIF credit default swap (see above). Credit rating BQQSFDJBUJPO CZ B SBUJOH BHFODZ TFF BCPWF PG UIF DBQBDJUZ PG B ĂśSN 4UBUF or other issuer to honor their obligations. A bad rating results in the increase in cost of the issuer’s financing. Deleveraging = voluntary reduction of a bank’s MFWFSBHF XIJDI NBZ PQFSBUF JO EJòFSFOU XBZT TBMF PG BTTFUT SFDBQJUBMJTBUJPO reduction in the credit supply‌). This phenomenon may have negative DPOTFRVFODFT PO UIF SFBM FDPOPNZ JG JU causes a credit crunch. Derivative DPNQMFY ĂśOBODJBM QSPEVDU whose value depends on that of another financial asset referred to as underlying. 5IFSF FYJTU EFSJWBUJWF QSPEVDUT UIBU BSF ĂśSN̓ DPNNJUNFOUT TXBQT GPSXBSE contracts‌) and optional (tradable PQUJPOT XBSSBOUT FUD Derivatives markets = segment of the capitals market that allows investors to manage economic and financial risks (unforeseen øVDUVBUJPOT PG TUPDL QSJDFT WBSJBUJPOT PG JOUFSFTU BOE FYDIBOHF SBUFTy BOE UBLF large positions with one’s own outlay SFQSFTFOUJOH PG UIF WBMVF PG UIF position. Futures markets and options

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

NBSLFUT BSF FYBNQMFT PG EFSJWBUJWFT markets. Equity (tranche) JO B TFDVSJUJTBUJPO PQFSBUJPO UIF USBODIF UIBU TVòFST UIF ĂśSTU MPTTFT in case of payment defaults within the underlying portfolio. Equity capital = common stocks plus disclosed SFTFSWFT 'SPN BO BDDPVOUJOH QPJOU PG WJFX FRVJUZ JT EFĂśOFE BT UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO the total value of assets and that of its liabilities. Leverage or debt leverage = financial ratio that measures the degree of indebtedness of a IPVTFIPME B ĂśSN PS B CBOL Liquidity = capacity of an industrial or financial firm to honor its short-term obligations. The capacity of a financial asset to be rapidly converted into legal currency (cash) without any discount. Mezzanine (tranche) = the tranche that absorbs in second position losses due to payment defaults within the underlying portfolio. The first losses are absorbed by the equity tranche (see above). Money market = segment of capital markets that allows firms and financial institutions to raise short-term financing. Off-balance sheet = all of the claims and DPNNJUNFOUT PG B ĂśSN BQBSU GSPN UIPTF included on the balance sheet and profit BOE MPTT TUBUFNFOU 'PS FYBNQMF UIF NPTU VTVBM Pò CBMBODF TIFFU DPNNJUNFOUT BSF MFBTJOH PQFSBUJPOT JOUFSFTU BOE FYDIBOHF rate derivative products and asset and liabilities warranties. Originator = the entity (most often a bank) UIBU TFMMT via B TFDVSJUJTBUJPO USBOTBDUJPO to an investment vehicle a pool of financial assets and/or loans. Over the counter = “tailor-madeâ€? market where operations are carried out on

B CJMBUFSBM CBTJT JO PQQPTJUJPO UP B TUBOEBSEJTFE NBSLFU FYDIBOHF Rating agency = financial intermediary specialised in evaluating the capacity of the issuers of debt securities to honour their commitments (repayment of borrowed capital and interest payments). The most JOUFSOBUJPOBMMZ XFMM LOPXO BSF .PPEZ T Fitch and Standard & Poor’s. Re-intermediation = phenomenon that consists of banks supporting the risks associated with assets previously removed GSPN UIFJS CBMBODF TIFFUT HJWFO UIF EJòFSFOU MJOLT MJRVJEJUZ MJOFT DSFEJU HVBSBOUFFT SFQVUBUJPO SJTLy UIBU FYJTU CFUXFFO UIF bank and the investment vehicle. RMBS (residential mortgage-backed securities) = securities backed by a portfolio of mortgage loans used to finance the BDRVJTJUJPO PG SFTJEFOUJBM QSPQFSUJFT Senior (tranche) UIF SFTJEVBM USBODIF i.e. which absorbs last of all the losses due to payment defaults within the underlying portfolio. The first and second waves of losses are absorbed by the equity and mezzanine tranches (see above). Solvency = capacity of a firm to meet its long and short-term obligations. Spread EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO UIF ZJFME PG B risky investment (corporate bond) and that of a risk-free investment (sovereign bond). SPV (special purpose vehicle) or conduit = the ad hoc vehicle designed to manage the underlying assets portfolio in a securitisation operation that issues securities backed by this portfolio. Structured product B DPNQMFY ĂśOBODJBM product traded by a financial institution UIBU DPNCJOFT TFWFSBM JOTUSVNFOUT PQUJPOT TXBQTy *UT FWBMVBUJPO JT PGUFO CBTFE VQPO NBUIFNBUJDBM NPEFMT BOE DPNQMFY UFDIOJRVFT PG ĂśOBODJBM FOHJOFFSJOH

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

A structured product does not generally have a secondary market. Subprime (mortgage) = mortgage loan granted to households whose solvency is SBUIFS XFBL JO PQQPTJUJPO UP B QSJNF MPBO i.e B IJHI RVBMJUZ POF Swap = a private contract concluded between UXP QBSUJFT UIBU JOWPMWFT UIF FYDIBOHF PG BO BTTFU PS öOBODJBM øPXT BTTPDJBUFE XJUI BO BTTFU DVSSFODZ SBUFT GPS TPNFPOF FMTF T BTTFU VOUJM B NBUVSJUZ EBUF

Bibliography "$)"3:" 7 5 $00-&: . 3*$)"3%40/ BOE * ̓ 8"-5&3 i3FHVMBUJOH 8BMM 4USFFU 5IF %PEE 'SBOL "DU BOE UIF /FX "SDIJUFDUVSF PG (MPCBM 'JOBODFi /FX :PSL 6OJWFSTJUZ 4UFSO 4DIPPM PG #VTJOFTT "$)"3:" 7 5 1)*-*110/ . 3*$)"3%40/ BOE / 306#*/* i5IF 'JOBODJBM $SJTJT PG $BVTFT BOE 3FNFEJFTi in "$)"3:" 7 BOE . 3*$)"3%40/ FET Restoring Financial Stability: How to Repair a Failed System +PIO 8JMFZ BOE 4POT -UE "(-*&55" . BOE 1 .06505 j -F SJTRVF EF TZTUÒNF FU TB QSÏWFOUJPO x #BORVF EF 'SBODF Cahiers économiques et monétaires O¡̓ QQ "3564 1 + 1 #&5#&;& $ %& #0*44*&6 BOE ( ̓ $"1&--& #-"/$"3% j -B DSJTF EFT TVCQSJNFT x $POTFJM E BOBMZTF ÏDPOPNJRVF "3564 1 + 1 #&5#&;& $ %& #0*44*&6 BOE ( ̓$"1&--& #-"/$"3% j %F MB DSJTF des subprimes Ë MB DSJTF NPOEJBMF x $POTFJM E BOBMZTF ÏDPOPNJRVF "4)$3"'5 " BOE 5 4$)6&3."// i6OEFSTUBOEJOH UIF 4FDVSJUJ[BUJPO PG 4VCQSJNF .PSUHBHF $SFEJUi Foundations and Trends in Finance 2 O¡

#"/26& %& '3"/$& j %F MB DSJTF öOBODJÒSF Ë MB DSJTF ÏDPOPNJRVF̓ x %PDVNFOUT FU EÏCBUT O¡ #"/26& %& '3"/$& j -B DSJTF öOBODJÒSF x %PDVNFOUT FU EÏCBUT O¡ #"35) + i5IF 3JTF BOE 'BMM PG UIF 64 .PSUHBHF BOE $SFEJU .BSLFUT " Comprehensive Analysis of the Market .FMUEPXOi +PIO 8JMFZ 4POT $0$)3"/& + BOE - ;*/("-&4 i-FINBO BOE UIF 'JOBODJBM $SJTJT 5IF -FTTPO JT UIBU *OTUJUVUJPOT UIBU 5BLF 5SBEJOH 3JTLT NVTU CF "MMPXFE UP 'BJMi Wall Street Journal 4FQUFNCFS %& #"/%5 0 BOE 1 )"35."// i4ZTUFNJD 3JTL " 4VSWFZi JO (00%)"35 ̓$ BOE ( *--*/( FET Financial Crises, Contagion and the Lender of Last Resort: A Reader 0YGPSE 6OJWFSTJUZ 1SFTT QQ %&.:"/:, : BOE 0 WBO )&.&35 “Understanding the Subprime Mortgage $SJTJTw Review of Financial Studies %6.0/5"69 / BOE " 101 “Understanding the Market Reaction to 4IPDLXBWFT &WJEFODF GSPN UIF 'BJMVSF PG -FINBO #SPUIFSTi Journal of Financial Stability O¡̓ QQ ̓ %6.0/5"69 / BOE " 101 j - JNQBDU EJòÏSFODJÏ EF MB GBJMMJUF EF -FINBO #SPUIFST sur les valeurs bancaires et financières BNÏSJDBJOFT VOF ÏUVEF E ÏWÏOFNFOU̓ x Revue d’Economie Financière O¡̓ QQ (00%)"35 $ i.POFZ DSFEJU BOE CBOL CFIBWJPVS OFFE GPS B OFX BQQSPBDIi National Institute Economic Review (0350/ ( i4MBQQFE CZ UIF *OWJTJCMF )BOE 5IF 1BOJD PG i 0YGPSE 6OJWFSTJUZ Press. */5&3/"5*0/"- .0/&5"3: '6/% i(MPCBM 'JOBODJBM 4UBCJMJUZ 3FQPSUi 0DUPCFS

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

*/5&3/"5*0/"- .0/&5"3: '6/% i'JOBODJBM .BSLFU 5VSCVMFODF $BVTFT $POTFRVFODFT BOE 1PMJDJFTi Global Financial Stability Report 0DUPCFS ,"6'."/ ( i#BOLJOH BOE $VSSFODZ $SJTJT BOE 4ZTUFNJD 3JTL " 5BYPOPNZ BOE 3FWJFXi Financial Markets, Institutions and Instruments WPM Oยกอ QQ .BZ ,"6'."/ ( i#BOL $POUBHJPO " 3FWJFX PG UIF 5IFPSZ BOE &WJEFODFi Journal of Financial Services Research WPM อ Oยก QQ อ ,"6'."/ ( BOE , 4$055 i8IBU *T 4ZTUFNJD 3JTL BOE EP #BOL 3FHVMBUPST 3FUBSE PS $POUSJCVUF UP *U i The Independent Review WPM Oยกอ QQ XJOUFS ,&/%3" , i 5SBODIF "#9 BOE #BTJT 3JTL JO 4VCQSJNF 3.#4 4USVDUVSFE 1PSUGPMJPTi 'JUDI 'FCSVBSZ 1035&4 3 i5IF 4IPDLJOH &SSPST PG *DFMBOE T .FMUEPXOi Financial Times อ 0DUPCFS

3*$)"3%40/ . BOE 7 "$)"3:" i3FTUPSJOH 'JOBODJBM 4UBCJMJUZ )PX UP 3FQBJS B 'BJMFE 4ZTUFNi /FX :PSL 6OJWFSTJUZ 4UFSO 4DIPPM PG #VTJOFTT 30(0'' , i"NFSJDB 8JMM /FFE B CO #BJM 0VUi Financial Times, อ 4FQUFNCFS 426". -",& 3&1035 i'JYJOH UIF 'JOBODJBM 4ZTUFNi 1SJODFUPO 6OJWFSTJUZ Press. 5":-03 + a i%FรถOJOH 4ZTUFNJD 3JTL 0QFSBUJPOBMMZi JO 4)6-5; ( , SCOTT and + อ 5":-03 FET Ending Government Bailouts as We Know Them )PPWFS 1SFTT 4UBOGPSE University. 5":-03 + b i5IF 'JOBODJBM $SJTJT BOE UIF 1PMJDZ 3FTQPOTFT "O "OBMZTJT PG 8IBU 8FOU 8SPOHi NBER Working Paper noอ +BOVBSZ ;*/("-&4 - i$BVTFT BOE &รฒFDUT PG UIF -FINBO #SPUIFST #BOLSVQUDZi Hearings before the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform 6OJUFE 4UBUFT )PVTF PG 3FQSFTFOUBUJWFT 0DUPCFS

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

%FBMJOH 8JUI 'PPE 1SJDF *OTUBCJMJUZ *O %FWFMPQJOH Countries Bruno Vindel – AFD

The instability of food prices has critical DPOTFRVFODFT GPS EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT 0O UIF POF IBOE JU BòFDUT DPOTVNFST XIJMF contributing to general inflation and causes GPPE BDDFTT QSPCMFNT UIVT BHHSBWBUJOH GPPE JOTFDVSJUZ 0O UIF PUIFS IBOE UIF QSFTTVSF of risk on agricultural producers is so high UIBU JU EJTDPVSBHFT JOWFTUNFOU CMPDLT iHSFFO SFWPMVUJPOTw BOE CZ UIF TBNF UPLFO QSFWFOUT FDPOPNJD EFWFMPQNFOU *O DFSUBJO DBTFT GPPE price instability generates political instability and micro-economic imbalances. Since UIF JTTVF PG GPPE QSJDFT IBT SFUVSOFE with a vengeance in the public policies of developing countries and in the international agenda. Although four “pure strategiesâ€? that may be mobilised to deal with the instability of GPPE QSJDFT IBWF CFFO JEFOUJĂśFE XF DBO demonstrate the limits of traditional solutions based on a combination of risk management strategies (insurance instruments) and

crisis management (emergency aid). More TUSVDUVSBM TPMVUJPOT BSF OFDFTTBSZ UIFTF imply a greater implication of states in order to stimulate the modernisation of production BOE BHSJDVMUVSBM NBSLFUT BT XFMM BT UP SFDBQJUBMJTF WVMOFSBCMF IPVTFIPMET )PXFWFS this can only be done by making farm inputs easier and by transferring resources to those most in need. Public intervention is OFDFTTBSZ UP QSFWFOU QSJDFT SFBDIJOH FYUSFNF IFJHIUT *U NVTU CF CBTFE PO B DPNCJOBUJPO of instruments adapted to the specificities PG UIF OBUJPOBM BOE PS SFHJPOBM DPOUFYU 5IF international community also has a role to play in the success of such policies.

(Transcript) The debate about the instability of food prices and how to deal with the problem was BMSFBEZ BEESFTTFE JO UIF th century by the "CCPU 'FSEJOBOE (BMJBOJ JO IJT XPSL BCPVU UIF XIFBU USBEF (BMJBOJ

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

%VSJOH UIF T BOE T UIF EPNJOBOU doctrine considered that the instability of GPPE QSJDFT XBT OPU B QSPCMFN )PXFWFS JU once again became an issue in international OFHPUJBUJPOT QBSUJDVMBSMZ JO UIF T BT B DPOTFRVFODF PG UIF DPOUJOVBUJPO PG UIF TJUVBUJPO o )JHI QSJDF JOTUBCJMJUZ JO TQJUF PG MJCFSBMJTBUJPO o -PX MFWFM PG EFWFMPQNFOU BOE VTF PG SJTL cover instruments; o -PX MFWFM PG BHSJDVMUVSBM JOWFTUNFOU BOE QSPEVDUJPO QBSUJDVMBSMZ JO "GSJDB *O TPBSJOH GPPE QSJDFT USJHHFSFE GPPE SJPUT JO B HSFBU NBOZ DPVOUSJFT 'SBODF GPS JUT QBSU IBE UIF QSPTQFDU PG QSFTJEJOH UIF ( *O UIJT DPOUFYU UIF Groupe InterministÊriel pour la SÊcuritÊ Alimentaire (*4" PG XIJDI "'% JT QBSU XBT NBOEBUFE UP

DBSSZ PVU JO EFQUI SFTFBSDI JOUP UIF RVFTUJPO "NPOH PUIFS XPSL B TUVEZ TFSWFE BT B CBTF for reflection and for the proposals France was able to make in this international negotiation. 5IF XPSL QSFTFOUFE UPEBZ (BMUJFS JT the fruit of this research.

1.5.1. Causes and Consequences of the Instability of Food Prices This graph tracks the evolution of consumer QSJDFT JO #BNBLP UIF DBQJUBM PG .BMJ XIBUFWFS UIF DSPQ UIF WBSJBUJPOT BSF CPUI JOUFS BOOVBM and intra-annual; the curves follow an almost JEFOUJDBM USBKFDUPSZ " HSBQI PG QSPEVDUJPO prices would show the same variations accompanied by strong correlations within UIF DPVOUSZ XIFSFWFS UIF NBSLFU JT MPDBUFE o UIF DBTF PG NJMMFU GPS FYBNQMF

Graph 22 Evolution of Cereal Prices in Bamako (Mali), 2000-2009

Price  (FCFA/Kg)Â

(1) Price of Millet (2) Price of Sorghum (3) Price of Maize (4) Price of Local Rice (5) Price of Imported RiceÂ

(4)Â

(5)Â (2)Â (1)Â

Source: Agricultural Markets Observer (OMA).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

MarchÂ

AugustÂ

MayÂ

OctoberÂ

JulyÂ

DecemberÂ

FebruaryÂ

AprilÂ

SeptemberÂ

June Â

NovemberÂ

January Â

MarchÂ

AugustÂ

MayÂ

OctoberÂ

JulyÂ

DecemberÂ

FebruaryÂ

AprilÂ

SeptemberÂ

NovemberÂ

June Â

January Â

(3)Â

Graph 23 Extent of International Price Instability Index 100 in 2006Â

SoyaÂ

MaizeÂ

RiceÂ

Wheat WheatÂ

MaizeÂ

Rice Soya January 2006Â

January 2007Â

January 2008Â

January 2009Â

Source: Écowin.

5IF QSJDF QFBL XIJDI USJHHFSFE GPPE SJPUT DBO CF DMFBSMZ JEFOUJĂśFE 8F DBO PCTFSWF B DPOUBHJPO FòFDU GSPN POF DSPQ UP BOPUIFS o̓B TOPXCBMM FòFDU 'PPE QSJDF JOTUBCJMJUZ JT EVF UP UISFF DBVTFT /BUVSBM JOTUBCJMJUZ "HSJDVMUVSBM QSPEVDUJPO DSPQT BT NVDI BT BOJNBM QSPEVDUJPOT JT̓ TVCKFDU UP DMJNBUJD IB[BSET 5ISPVHIPVU UIF̓ ZFBS UIFSF DBO CF CJH WBSJBUJPOT particularly for dry cereals in Africa. "U̓ IBSWFTU̓ QFSJPE UIF TVSHF PG QSPEVDUT triggers a fall in price. Seasonality or inter-annual variation is represented by a displacement of the supply curve with SFTVMUJOH WBSJBUJPO JO QSJDF TJODF UIF demand curve is rigid over one year or over a short period – alimentary behaviour is largely comparable from one year to UIF̓OFYU

*NQPSUFE JOTUBCJMJUZ *G UIF HPWFSONFOU PS JNQPSUFST EFDJEF UP NBTTJWFMZ JNQPSU domestic prices will fall; &OEPHFOPVT JOTUBCJMJUZ XIJDI JT OPU BDDFQUFE CZ BMM FDPOPNJTUT *U JT DPOTJEFSFE that all agricultural markets do not function in pure and perfect competition and that UIFSF BSF QIFOPNFOB PG J DPCXFCT (ii) speculative bubbles and (iii) panic QIFOPNFOB XIFO BMM UIF CVZFST SVTI UP buy one product. Agricultural markets thus present similarities with the financial world. 5IFTF EJòFSFOU TPVSDFT PG JOTUBCJMJUZ JOUFSBDU with each other. A bad harvest within a country (natural instability) will cause a price SJTF BOE UIJT NBZ USJHHFS TQFDVMBUJWF CVCCMFT if powerful market players try to profit from the price rise.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

5IF DPOTFRVFODFT GPS DPOTVNFST BSF NBOJGPME JO UFSNT PG GPPE TFDVSJUZ CVU BMTP JO̓UFSNT PG EFWFMPQNFOU .BMOVUSJUJPO JOTVĂłDJFOU DBMPSJF JOUBLF BOE deficiencies); - Reduction of investment in human capital IFBMUI FEVDBUJPO FUD - Fall in the consumption of non-food goods TIPSU UFSN NBDSP FDPOPNJD FòFDUT

Diagram

3

- Reduction in productive investments (longUFSN NBDSP FDPOPNJD FòFDUT - Dilution of capital and loss of resilience MPOH UFSN NBDSP FDPOPNJD FòFDUT - Political troubles. Some risks are also linked to agricultural QSPEVDFST 5JNNFS BOE 8PSME #BOL

Consequences for the Producers

Source: Author ‘s construction.

#FDBVTF PG QSJDF WBSJBCJMJUZ GBSNFST JOWFTU little and agricultural productivity falls. Most of them develop self-consumption strategies and constrict their production capacity. 5IJT QSPDFTT DPOUSJCVUFT UP QSJDF JOTUBCJMJUZ UIF̓ TNBMMFS UIF NBSLFUT UIF NPSF QSJDF instability there will be at a national level.

1.5.2. Panorama of Possible Solutions )FSF JT BO BOBMZTJT HSJE PG TPMVUJPOT GPS EFBMJOH XJUI QSJDF JOTUBCJMJUZ JO B NBUSJY GPSNBU UIBU was constructed following sought after PCKFDUJWFT BOE JNQMFNFOUBUJPO NFUIPET

TFF UBCMF OFYU QBHF 1BOPSBNB PG 1PTTJCMF 4PMVUJPOT 5IF "#$% .BUSJY 5IF DSPTTJOH PG NFUIPET BOE PCKFDUJWFT HJWFT̓BO "#$% NBUSJY 4USBUFHZ " *NQSPWFNFOU PG BHSJDVMUVSBM productivity and market function in order UP NBLF UIFN NPSF SFTJMJFOU UP IB[BSET BOE̓ NPSF SFTQPOTJWF UP QSJDF TJHOBMT *U is hoped that the markets will function better with the implementation of private instruments; 4USBUFHZ # 1SJDFT BSF BMMPXFE UP SJTF CVU there is a common vision concerning players’ revenues – use of risk cover and

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Table

4

Panorama of Possible Solutions. The ABCD Matrix

Objectives

Stabilising prices

Reducing the effects of price instability

Means Market based Based on public interventions

Strategy A

Strategy B

Improving production and food produce markets

Developing risk cover instruments

Strategy C

Strategy D

Regulating availability to prevent prices from reaching extreme heights

Providing targeted aid to vulnerable players

Source: Galtier, 2012.

QSJWBUF JOTUSVNFOUT JOTVSBODF GPS GBSNFST GVUVSFT NBSLFUT XIFSF UIF QSJDF JT ÜYFE beforehand for market operators); 4USBUFHZ $ 1SJDF TUBCJMJTJOH 5IF TUBUF defines price ranges and tries to maintain UIFN UIBOLT UP QVCMJD TUPDLT BOE UIF regulation of foreign trade; 4USBUFHZ % -FTTFOJOH UIF OFHBUJWF FòFDUT CZ UIF EJòVTJPO PG GPPE PS ÜOBODJBM BJE UP UIF DPOTVNFST NPTU BòFDUFE CZ QSJDF variations.

Table

5

1.5.3. The Dominant Doctrine. Critical Evaluation 'SPN UIF T UP UIF T UIF EFCBUF about price instability was put on hold because the dominant doctrine was inspired by ultra-liberal economists – strategies A BOE # BOE FWFOUVBMMZ TUSBUFHZ % JO UIF DBTF of a crisis. Price-stabilising public policies were condemned and the use of targeted or emergency aid was of limited duration and reserved for food crisis-stricken households.

The Dominant Doctrine. A Mixed ABD Strategy

Objectives

Stabilising prices

Reducing the effect of price instability

Means Market based Based on public interventions

Strategy A

Strategy B

Improving food produce markets

Developing risk cover instruments

Strategy C Regulating availability to prevent prices from reaching extreme heights

Strategy D Providing targeted aid to vulnerable players

Source: Galtier, 2012.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

What are the arguments in favour of this EPNJOBOU EPDUSJOF

3JTL DPWFS JOTUSVNFOUT GVUVSFT PQUJPOT etc.).

1SPEVDFST BSF TVQQPTFE UP CF QSPUFDUFE CZ

$POTVNFST BSF TVQQPTFE UP CF TVĂłDJFOUMZ protected by a limited use of strategy D JOTUSVNFOUT FNFSHFODJFT TUSJDU UBSHFUJOH

- Food produce markets that are supposed UP CF FĂłDJFOU JO BWPJEJOH DPMMBQTFT JO QSJDF 8JMMJBNT BOE 8SJHIU i/BUVSBM JOTVSBODFw HFOFSBUFE CZ UIF negative correlation between price and QSPEVDUJPO /FXCFSZ BOE 4UJHMJU[

)PXFWFS UIJT EPDUSJOF EPFT OPU SFTJTU DMPTF FYBNJOBUJPO PS IJTUPSJDBM GBDUT

Graph 24 Are Cereal Markets Sufficient to Avoid a Price Collapse? (1) Price of maize for producers in MaliÂ

Price (FCFA/kg)Â

(2) Price of millet for producers in Mali producteur du mil Mali (3) Price of sorghum for  producers in MaliÂ

(2)Â

(3)Â

(1)Â

Source: Observatoire Malien du MarchĂŠ Agricole.

-FU VT UBLF UIF FYBNQMF PG .BMJ 1SPEVDUJPO crises are numerous and natural JOTVSBODF EPFT OPU XPSL GPS BMM DSPQT QBSUJDVMBSMZ̓ GPS̓ FYDIBOHFBCMF DFSFBMT SJDF – the government will import to meet EFNBOE̓BOE UIF GBSNFST XJMM OPU FYQFSJFODF a rise in price. This natural insurance does not work for structurally deficient

producers. The theory is not therefore universally applicable. "T GPS GVUVSFT NBSLFUT UIFTF BSF JOTUSVNFOUT UIBU SFRVJSF HSFBU UFDIOJDBM DPNQMFYJUZ BOE DPNF BU B QSJDF 8IBU JT NPSF UIFZ EP OPU FYJTU GPS NBOZ DFSFBMT o NBOJPD GPS FYBNQMF There is indeed a rice futures market in 5IBJMBOE CVU̓ JU EPFT OPU XPSL 'PS̓ NBJ[F

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

UIFSF JT UIF $IJDBHP̓ #PBSE PG 5SBEF $#5 BOE UIF 4PVUI̓ "GSJDBO 'VUVSFT &YDIBOHF 4"'&9 CVU̓ UIFTF NBSLFUT POMZ PQFSBUF for big operators in a relatively restricted HFPHSBQIJDBM [POF o UIF 4"'&9 POMZ GVODUJPOT JO 4PVUI "GSJDB #PUTXBOB BOE ;BNCJB CVU OPU GVSUIFS /PSUI Are consumers protected by emergency BJE 5IF BOTXFS JT BNCJHVPVT *O UIF DBTF of repeated crises – such as in certain West African countries where there is a big population and agriculture performs fairly badly – food aid does not succeed in meeting demand and poor consumers are not protected. "TJBO TUBUFT BOE QBSUJDVMBSMZ 4PVUIFBTU "TJBO POFT IBWF PQUFE GPS B TZTUFN XIFSF food security and the minimalising of risk for consumers and producers have resulted in agricultural policies of price stability. *O̓ *OEPOFTJB B IVHF DPVOUSZ XJUI NBSLFU EJĂłDVMUJFT SFTVMUJOH GSPN JUT JOTVMBS OBUVSF the government included a strategy C in BJNFE BU TUBUF JOUFSWFOUJPO UISPVHI UIF 4UBUF̓"HFODZ GPS 3JDF -PHJTUJDT #6-0(

1.5.4. What Can be Done at the Producer Level? 5IF NPEFM QSPQPTFE CZ ' (BMUJFS JT UP BQQMZ a C-strategy by guaranteeing minimum prices that will allow farmers a source PG JODPNF B DFSUBJO WJTJPO PWFS UIF ZFBS – or the two or three years to come – and which will strengthen confidence in risk (production and market) management. These minimum prices are mainly the result PG UXP JOTUSVNFOUT QVCMJD TUPDLT o UIF TUBUF QVSDIBTFT XIFO UIFSF JT B MBSHF RVBOUJUZ BOE QSJDFT BSF BU SJTL PG GBMMJOH UIF QVCMJD TUPDL may be sold in case of a bad harvest or high

QSJDFT JNQPSU BOE FYQPSU SFHVMBUJPOT UIBU are considered to be a means of achieving a national financial balance for cereals. 8IBU BSF UIF FòFDUT GPS UIF TUBUF t $PTUT BOE OFHBUJWF FòFDUT #VEHFUBSZ DPTUT QVSDIBTF PG DFSFBMT BOE stock management; - Distortions (role of signal and price JODFOUJWFT 3JTL PG HFOFSBUJOH TVSQMVTFT &YQPSU PG JOTUBCJMJUZ UP JOUFSOBUJPOBM markets; t #FOFĂśUT 4UJNVMBUJPO PG BHSJDVMUVSBM JOWFTUNFOU historical correlation between green SFWPMVUJPOT BOE NJOJNVN QSJDFT 5JNNFS %FNFLF et al *ODSFBTF JO BHSJDVMUVSBM QSPEVDUJWJUZ 3JQQMF FòFDU PO UIF SFTU PG UIF FDPOPNZ iTUSVDUVSBM USBOTGPSNBUJPOTw 5JNNFS BOE CFUUFS Pò GBSNFST NBZ DPOTVNF PUIFS HPPET TFOE UIFJS DIJMESFO UP TDIPPM etc. t $PTU FòFDUJWFOFTT *O EFWFMPQFE DPVOUSJFT UIFSF JT MJUUMF QSPĂśU UP CF FYQFDUFE BOE UIF SJTLT PG DBQUVSF CZ QSPEVDFST BSF IJHI PSHBOJTFE MPCCJFT MJUUMF consumer counterbalance); *O EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT FYQFDUFE QSPĂśUT are high and capture risks low (urban DPOTVNFS QSFTTVSF NJOJNVN QSJDFT BSF necessary for basic food products. 'PS JOUFSNFEJBUF DPVOUSJFT UIF EJĂłDVMUJFT persist – the case of many Asian countries. These countries have been applying strategy C for twenty to thirty years and IBWF HJWFO TUBCJMJUZ UP UIFJS GBSNFST SJDF QSPEVDUJPO IBT EFWFMPQFE o 7JĚ?U /BN BOE̓ 5IBJMBOE BSF UXP NBKPS FYQPSUFST )PXFWFS GFBTJCJMJUZ BOE HPWFSOBODF QSPCMFNT BSJTF TLJMM BDRVJTJUJPO TUPDL

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

NBOBHFNFOU BOE DPSSVQUJPO QIFOPNFOB (need for control and counter-control systems). The first minimum price should not be too high in order to not send the wrong signal to farmers who would be tempted to increase production when the state HVBSBOUFFT UP CVZ BU B IJHI QSJDF *U JT UIF DBTF JO 5IBJMBOE XIJDI JT BQQMZJOH B QPMJDZ PG WFSZ IJHI HVBSBOUFFE QSJDFT *O UXP ZFBST rice stocks have doubled and the price JT BCPWF UIBU PG UIF JOUFSOBUJPOBM NBSLFU UPEBZ TUPDLT BSF CFJOH TPME Pò DIFBQMZ

Box

1

1.5.5. What Can be Done at the Consumer Level? The system of restricting consumer aid to FNFSHFODJFT POMZ JT OPU TBUJTGBDUPSZ (PVFM BOE +FBO 5IF JEFB JT UP CSPBEFO UIF VTF PG UBSHFUFE BJE TJHOJĂśDBOU BOE TUSVDUVSBM transfers; households facing chronic foodaccess problems. *O B DPVOUSZ MJLF *OEPOFTJB UIF #6-0( TZTUFN also functions as a means of selling public rice stocks at low prices to a population in need. There are price caps for consumers; imports may serve to regulate these price caps‌

Costs and Benefits Relating to a Wider Use of D-Instruments

Costs: - Budgetary costs; - Distortions on the transferred goods markets (if transfers in kind) and on the labour market; - Eviction effect on private storage (if transfers in kind). Benefits: - Supply continuous aid to households suffering from chronic malnutrition; - Halt dilution of capital and the loss of resilience of households; - Reconstitute the capacities of less resilient households. Cost-benefit ratio: because of i) the expected effect on food security and ii) the growing cost of emergency aid, the relation C-B is most often positive. Source: Author ‘s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

1.5.6. What Can be Done on an International Level? * IPQF * IBWF DPOWJODFE ZPV PG UIF JOUFSFTU PG EFWFMPQJOH $ TUSBUFHJFT CVU UIF management of international price stability CZ DPVOUSJFT PGUFO IBT OFHBUJWF FòFDUT *O UIF TIPSU UFSN CPSEFS NFBTVSFT JODSFBTF JOUFSOBUJPOBM QSJDF JOTUBCJMJUZ o GPS FYBNQMF UIF FYQPSU QSPIJCJUJPOT JOUSPEVDFE CZ NBOZ DPVOUSJFT JO *O UIF NFEJVN UFSN UIF TFMG TVóDJFODZ TUSBUFHJFT PG

countries narrow international markets POMZ PG DFSFBMT QSPEVDFE JO UIF XPSME BSF USBEFE JOUFSOBUJPOBMMZ XIJDI JODSFBTFT JOUFSOBUJPOBM QSJDF JOTUBCJMJUZ TFMG TVĂłDJFODZ TUSBUFHJFT PG DPVOUSJFT BòFDU UIF BMMPDBUJPO of resources – food products are not grown JO UIF CFTU BSFBT XIJDI JODSFBTFT UIFJS QSJDF BOE NBZ BòFDU GPPE TFDVSJUZ ĂśOBMMZ UIF buying or leasing of land in other countries may aggravate the food situation in these countries.

Graph 25 In 2008: An Export Prohibition “Bubble�?

Source: Headey, 2011.

The rising curve represents the international QSJDF BU XIJDI BMM TUBUFT TUPQQFE FYQPSUJOH because they feared an increase of domestic prices and rocketing inflation. The peak was

SFBDIFE JO +VOF XIFO +BQBO EFDJEFE to place all its stocks at the disposal of the international market.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

1.5.7. In Practice‌ -FU VT SFUVSO UP UIF EFWFMPQFE SFBTPOJOH BOE UIF UPPMT JNQMFNFOUFE

Box

2

A-Instruments

Objective: stabilise prices through the improvement of producer and market performance. Developed reasoning: - Modernising farms allows the reduction of production vulnerability to natural hazards (irrigation systems, management of diseases, etc.) and a better response of the production to price incentives; - Modernising markets allows a better balancing of the deficits and surpluses between zones (thanks to commercial exchange) between years (thanks to storage). However, A-instruments do not develop without a favourable environment and are quite powerless when faced with imported and endogenous instability. Examples: infrastructures and institutions: - Irrigation systems / research and extension systems; - Market information systems; - Agricultural credit/ warrantage systems (storage loan); - Commodity exchanges/ standards of quality. Source: Author ‘s construction.

Box

3

B-Instruments

Objective: manage risks thanks to market-based instruments. Developed reasoning: allow economies to cover themselves against risks linked to price instability or indeed against the risk of bad harvests. However, B-instruments require technical skill, come at a cost, only function well with big volumes and have negative effects (bubble risk). Examples: - Price risk: contracts on futures markets: Options (“call� or “put�); Forward contacts; - Production risk: harvest-insurance: Climatic insurance (indexed). Source: Author ‘s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Box

4

C-Instruments

Objective: stabilise prices through public intervention on markets. Developed reasoning: stabilising availabilities on the domestic market allows the reduction of price instability. C-instruments are the only ones that may be used against endogenous and imported instabilities. They have a (budgetary) cost, call for “virtuous� governance and are only efficient on condition that one chooses the right objective (limiting instability vs. supporting agricultural prices). Furthermore, they may be limited by technical factors (perishability) and by the international commitments of the countries (WTO). Source: Author ‘s construction.

Box

5

D-Instruments

Objective: support revenues of vulnerable households during crisis periods. Developed reasoning: transfer of a good (money in cash, coupons, food or agricultural input) to targeted poor households. D-instruments are the only ones that protect non-creditworthy consumers, but they do not prevent diluting capital, need to be targeted and may create market distortions. Examples: - Food aid (free or sold) /sold at reduced prices; - Food for work; - Cash for work; - Vouchers for input or food vouchers. Source: Author ‘s construction.

These four types of instruments have a complementary and substitutability SFMBUJPOTIJQ UIF $ JOTUSVNFOUT GBWPVS the development of A-instruments; the # JOTUSVNFOUT BU B TUBUF MFWFM MJNJU UIF CVEHFUBSZ FòFDUT PG UIF $ BOE % JOTUSVNFOUT etc.

5BLF JOUP BDDPVOU UIF EJòFSFOU TPVSDFT PG instability; #F BEBQUFE UP UIF DPVOUSJFT UP TQFDJÜD products; 3FNBJO øFYJCMF UP EFBM FóDJFOUMZ XJUI DZDMJDBM IB[BSET

A system (“a policy�) based on the four categories of instrument appears to be necessary to protect consumers and allow the “structural transformation� of agriculture (“green revolution�).

Price instability management policies must be adapted to the development situation of the country; here we find the notion of iIJTUPSJDBM TFRVFODJOHw cf. the common agricultural policy (CAP) and the rice-growing policies in several Asian countries.

Such a price instability management policy NVTU

Several decisions have been taken within UIF ( " SFøFDUJPO QSPHSBNNF BCPVU

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

food policies for Africa has been developed. There is an idea to develop a worldwide TUPSBHF TUSBUFHZ CVU UIJT QSPKFDU TUJMM SFNBJOT on the drawing board. There are also ideas GPS̓SFHJPOBM TUPSBHF TVDI BT UIF "4&"/ 1MVT Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) in 4PVUIFBTU "TJB B QSPKFDU TQPOTPSFE CZ UIF "TJBO %FWFMPQNFOU #BOL 0O B NPSF DPODSFUF MFWFM UIF ( IBT created a world information system for NBSLFUT BOE QBSUJDVMBSMZ TUPDLT *G XF EP OPU IBWF̓ QVCMJD TUPDLT BU BO JOUFSOBUJPOBM MFWFM it is necessary to know where stocks are BOE UIFJS̓ RVBOUJUZ 5IJT RVFMMT QIFOPNFOB PG QBOJD BOE TQFDVMBUJWF CVCCMFT BMUIPVHI certain countries consider their stocks to be a state secret. 5IF ( IBT BMTP JNQMFNFOUFE UIF DSFBUJPO PG B SBQJE SFTQPOTF GPSVN UIF NPTU JNQPSUBOU DPVOUSJFT JO UIF XPSME GPS DFSFBMT CPUI QSPEVDFST BOE DPOTVNFST NBZ IPME FNFSHFODZ NFFUJOHT BOE QPPM JOGPSNBUJPO PS FWFO SFMFBTF QVCMJD TUPDLT TVDI BT +BQBO JO UP DBMN UIF NBSLFUT

Reading Material ("-5*&3 ' JO DPMMBCPSBUJPO XJUI # 7*/%& GĂŠrer l’instabilitĂŠ des prix alimentaires dans les pays en dĂŠveloppement: une analyse critique des stratĂŠgies et des instruments "'% A Savoir /ÂĄ Q 1BSJT IUUQ XXX BGE GS XFCEBW TJUF BGE TIBSFE 16#-*$"5*0/4 3&$)&3$)& 4DJFOUJĂśRVFT " TBWPJS " 4BWPJS QEG &OHMJTI WFSTJPO IUUQ XXX BGE GS XFCEBW TJUF BGE TIBSFE 16#-*$"5*0/4 3&$)&3$)& 4DJFOUJĂśRVFT " TBWPJS " 4BWPJS QEG

Selective Bibliography #0$06. * SĂŠcuritĂŠ Alimentaire et PauvretĂŠ: Analyse ĂŠconomique des dĂŠterminants de la consommation des mĂŠnages, Application au Mali, Doctorate UIFTJT 6OJWFSTJUZ PG .POUQFMMJFS * Q

̓BOOFYFT $)"1050 " BOE 5 +":/& i5IF *NQBDUT PG 5SBEF #BSSJFST BOE .BSLFU *OUFSWFOUJPOT PO .BJ[F 1SJDF 1SFEJDUBCJMJUZ Evidence from Eastern and Southern "GSJDBi MSU International Development Draft Working Paper no %FDFNCFS %&.&,& . ( 1"/(3";*0( BOE . ."&5; Country Responses to the Food Security Crisis: Nature and Preliminary Implications of the Policies Pursued '"0 %0304) 1 BOE 4 3"4)*% i#BOHMBEFTI 3JDF̓ 5SBEF BOE 1SJDF 4UBCJMJ[BUJPO *NQMJDBUJPOT PG UIF &YQFSJFODF GPS 1VCMJD 4UPDLTA IFPRI Discussion Paper +VMZ %038"3% " i(FUUJOH 3FBM "CPVU 'PPE 1SJDFTi Development Policy Review ̓ QQ ̓ ("-*"/* ' j̓ %JBMPHVFT TVS MF DPNNFSDF EFT CMĂ?T̓x 3Ă?Ă?EJUJPO Corpus des Ĺ“uvres de philosophie en langue française 'BZBSE 1BSJT ("-5*&3 ' Managing food price instability: Critical Assessment of The Dominant Doctrine. Global Food Security. IUUQ EY EPJ PSH K HGT (06&- $ BOE 4 +&"/ i0QUJNBM 'PPE 1SJDF 4UBCJMJ[BUJPO JO B 4NBMM 0QFO %FWFMPQJOH $PVOUSZi 5IF 8PSME #BOL Policy Research Working Paper +BOVBSZ Q )&"%&: % i3FUIJOLJOH UIF (MPCBM 'PPE $SJTJT 5IF 3PMF PG 5SBEF 4IPDLTi Food Policy QQ

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

+":/& 5 # ;6-6 BOE + /*+)0'' i4UBCJMJ[JOH 'PPE .BSLFUT JO &BTUFSO BOE 4PVUIFSO "GSJDBi Food Policy QQ ̓ +&/4&/ 3 i5IF %JHJUBM 1SPWJEF *OGPSNBUJPO 5FDIOPMPHZ .BSLFU Performance and Welfare in the South *OEJBO 'JTIFSJFT 4FDUPSi Quarterly Journal of Economics QQ ̓ .*$)*&-4 % 3 #-&*/ BOE + &(( Évaluation des systèmes de rĂŠponses Ă la crise 2010 au Niger. DĂŠlĂŠgation de l’Union FVSPQĂ?FOOF BV /JHFS $08* *3". .:&34 3 i$PTUT PG 'PPE 1SJDF *OTUBCJMJUZ JO -PX *ODPNF $PVOUSJFTi Food Policy QQ ̓ /&8#&3: % BOE + 45*(-*5; The Theory of Commodity Price Stabilization. A Study in the Economics of Risk $MBSFOEPO 1SFTT 0YGPSE 106-50/ $ + ,:%% 4 8*((*/4 BOE " %038"3% i4UBUF *OUFSWFOUJPO GPS 'PPE 1SJDF 4UBCJMJTBUJPO JO "GSJDB $BO JU 8PSL i Food Policy QQ ̓ 5*..&3 1 A World Without Agriculture: The Structural Transformation in Historical Perspective 8FOEU .FNPSJBM -FDUVSF "NFSJDBO &OUFSQSJTF *OTUJUVUF Washington D.C. 5*..&3 1 i5IF "HSJDVMUVSBM 5SBOTGPSNBUJPOi JO $)&/&3: ) BOE 5 / 43*/*7"4"/ FET Handbook of Development Economics 7PM "NTUFSEBN QQ 8*--*".4 + BOE # 83*()5 Storage and Commodity Markets $BNCSJEHF 6OJWFSTJUZ 1SFTT $BNCSJEHF 803-% #"/, World Development Report 2008, Agriculture for Development 5IF 8PSME #BOL 8BTIJOHUPO % $

Exchanges‌ StĂŠphane LagrĂŠe 3FHBSEJOH GPPE JOTUBCJMJUZ JTTVFT JT UIF NBKPS QSPCMFN OPU BMTP UIF GBDU UIBU TNBMM producers have less and less say in the QSJDF QBSUJDVMBSMZ̓ CFDBVTF PG UIF SPMF PG multinationals and the speculation that BDDPNQBOJFT UIFJS TUSBUFHJFT Yves Le Bars :PV EJEO U TQFBL BCPVU UIF EFDJTJPOT BCPVU UIF VTF PG BHSP GVFMT * CFMJFWF UIBU PG "NFSJDBO NBJ[F JT VTFE UP QSPEVDF BHSP GVFM #SB[JM JT UIF CJHHFTU FYQPSUFS PG FUIBOPM NBEF from sugar cane. This has an influence on MBOE VTF BOE QSJDFT o UIF QSJDF PG NBJ[F IBT soared. We can also observe the devastating FòFDUT PG UIF GPPE BJE UIBU XBT EFDJEFE as a compromise between the surpluses PG /PSUIFSO DPVOUSJFT BOE UIF OFFET PG 4PVUIFSO̓POFT 'JOBMMZ XIBU BSF UIF QSPTQFDUT GPS Bruno Vindel *U JT USVF UIBU TNBMM QSPEVDFST BSF CZ EFĂśOJUJPO PS TUSVDUVSF iQSJDF UBLFSTw UIFZ have no influence on the formation of prices. All they can do is group together in order to represent more volume and weight on UIF NBSLFUT BOE BU MFBTU MPDBMMZ UIFZ DBO OFHPUJBUF UIF QSJDF JO UIFJS FOWJSPONFOU XIJDI PGUFO̓ JOWPMWFT B CVZFS *U DBO CF considered that multinationals will not IFTJUBUF UP TQFDVMBUF IFODF UIF JOUFSFTU of C-strategies where states moderate this phenomenon. 8F DBO TFF UIBU UIF QSJDF PG NBJ[F SPTF JO̓ "U UIF ( MFWFM DFSUBJO TUBUFT wanted ethanol incorporations that came GSPN NBJ[F UP CF MJNJUFE JO JOEVTUSJBM

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

QSPDFTTFT PS FWFO JOEVTUSJBM QSPEVDFST PG biofuels to change their raw material in case PG TVQQMZ EJóDVMUJFT PO JOUFSOBUJPOBM NBSLFUT )PXFWFS ̓ GSPN B UFDIOJDBM BOE öOBODJBM point of view this remains improbable. 'VSUIFSNPSF CJPGVFMT BSF OPU POMZ UP CMBNF *O "VTUSBMJB̓ FYQFSJFODFE UXP ESPVHIUT UIBU QBSUJDVMBSMZ BòFDUFE XIFBU FYQPSUT XIBU JT NPSF UIF TVNNFS PG XBT cold and wet in Europe. All these phenomena were amplified by the fear certain states had of seeing their domestic food prices JODSFBTF XIJDI USJHHFSFE MFWJFT PO FYQPSUT UIF DBTF PG *OEJB 5IBJMBOE BOE 7J̏U̓ /BN GPS SJDF NPSFPWFS NVDI TQFDVMBUJPO XBT PCTFSWFE QBSUJDVMBSMZ JO UIF 1IJMJQQJOFT GPS SJDF 4JODF UIF öOBODJBM EJNFOTJPO PG BHSJDVMUVSBM NBSLFUT IBT JODSFBTFE PO GVUVSFT NBSLFUT UIFSF BSF OPO GPPE QSPGFTTJPOBM players who speculate as they would do on securities; new financial products associate TP XFMM EJòFSFOU iCBTJD QSPEVDUTw o GPPE metals or oil – that variations on mineral raw goods markets have an impact on food futures markets. We can thus observe that international agricultural raw material market prices are partly disconnected from the basic iQSPEVDUJPO DPOTVNQUJPO TUPDLTw USJQUZDI

of importing states take a positive view of becoming dependent on imports for a significant part of their population’s food. This agricultural productivity does not only EFQFOE PO OFX UFDIOJRVFT BEPQUFE CZ GBSNFST JU JT BMTP OFDFTTBSZ UP VTF FMFNFOUT from C-strategies that allow full agricultural QSPEVDUJWJUZ )PXFWFS UIF QSPCMFN FTQFDJBMMZ̓ JO 4PVUIFBTU "TJB JT UIBU GBSNFST still occupy small plots of land and the QPQVMBUJPO JT BHJOH 5IF RVFTUJPO SFHBSEJOH the structural transformation of agriculture JT SBJTFE JU JT OPU POMZ B RVFTUJPO PG EFBMJOH XJUI QSJDF JOTUBCJMJUZ CVU BMTP PG NBOBHJOH the progress in the structure of farms. Europe UBDLMFE UIJT QSPCMFN JO UIF T UPEBZ "TJB must deal with this issue.

*O UIF XPSME QPQVMBUJPO JT TFU UP TUBCJMJTF CVU CFGPSF UIBU EBUF UIFSF XJMM CF B rise in food demand. When we look at things GSPN B NBDSP QPJOU PG WJFX XF OPUJDF UIBU UIFSF JT TUJMM B MPU PG MBOE BWBJMBCJMJUZ HMPCBMMZ and that we can still open pioneer fronts and DVMUJWBUF OFX MBOE *O GBDU UIFTF OFX MBOET BSF located in Africa. Can you imagine that one EBZ 4VEBO ̓;BNCJB "SHFOUJOB BOE #SB[JM XJMM QSPEVDF UP̓GFFE UIF XPSME *T UIJT UIF TPMVUJPO * EP OPU UIJOL TP 5IFZ XPVME IBWF UP QSPEVDF the products needed by the other continents. /FJUIFS EP * UIJOL UIBU UIF HPWFSONFOUT

Alain Henry

Adrian Pop *U JT B XFMM LOPXO GBDU UIBU PO UIF DVSSFODZ EFSJWBUJWF NBSLFU B MBSHF QBSU PG USBOTBDUJPOT BSF QVSFMZ TQFDVMBUJWF UIFZ IBWF OP DPVOUFSQBSU JO UIF SFBM FDPOPNZ * XPVME like to know if you have any idea about the amount of speculation on the derivatives NBSLFU *O UIF CBOLJOH EPNBJO UIF JEFB PG UBYJOH TQFDVMBUJWF öOBODJBM USBOTBDUJPOT JT being discussed.

*G XF MPPL BU UIF XPSME USBHFEZ PO UIF GPPE NBSLFUT XF TFF UIBU JU JT VSHFOU UP SBJTF RVFTUJPOT BCPVU SFHVMBUJPOT $BO JU CF considered normal to speculate on a good when one is neither the producer nor the öOBM̓ CFOFöDJBSZ PG UIJT HPPE "T XFMM BT UIF UBY PO öOBODJBM USBOTBDUJPOT DPVME XF not introduce a rule where any buyer of a package of food assets would be “stuck” XJUI B QBSU PG UIF HPPET XIJDI XPVME NBLF UIF̓CVZFS NPSF SFTQPOTJCMF

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Bruno Vindel There was a recent attempt in Southeast Asia to re-launch the food futures market in 5IBJMBOE "HSJDVMUVSBM 'VUVSFT &YDIBOHF PG Thailand – AFET; the Asian Development #BOL ÜOBODFE TUVEJFT JOUP UIJT QSPKFDU Resistance to the development of this market comes from governments who argue that a lot of financial flows arrive in Southeast Asia

GSPN̓ &VSPQF BOE UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT BOE that the speculative risks are high with the opening of the futures market – rise in regional QSJDFT 8F TQPLF BCPVU SFHVMBUJPOT BU UIF ( MFWFM BCPVU BTLJOH UIF 'JOBODJBM 4FSWJDFT BOE Markets Authority for a report. Are they food professionals or pure speculators who are UIFSF UP JOWFTU DBQJUBM

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

.PEFMMJOH BOE Participatory Simulation for Risk Management in Animal Epidemiology RaphaÍl Duboz – CIRAD

(Transcript) The perception and management of risks is a central theme that is being developed by our Animal et Gestion IntÊgrÊe des Risques "(*3T UFBN * BN XPSLJOH XJUI WFUT BOUISPQPMPHJTUT TPDJPMPHJTUT BOE FDPOPNJTUT We share a multidisciplinary vision of risk management. Vanessa Manceron told us that risk was the NJTTJOH MJOL JO B DIBJO PG DBVTBMJUZ BOE UIJT idea has been taken up by modellers who BUUFNQU UP FYQMBJO JODJEFOUT CZ B TFRVFODF PG FWFOUT UIBU GPMMPX FBDI PUIFS XIJMF BU UIF same time including the notion of probability.

Vanessa also emphasised that danger is not UIF FYDMVTJWF EPNBJO PG FYQFSUT CVU JT PG JOUFSFTU UP BMM UIF TPDJBM TUBLFIPMEFST BOE she added that the cultural framework is primordial in defining risk. 8IBU * IBWF SFUBJOFE GSPN UIF QSFTFOUBUJPOT PG "ESJBO 1PQ BOE #SVOP 7JOEFM JT UIBU XF BSF GBDFE XJUI WFSZ DPNQMFY TZTUFNT BOE UIBU JU JT EJĂłDVMU UP EJTUJOHVJTI DIBJOT PG simple causality. Methods for describing these systems must be innovative. We use UXP UFSNT UP RVBMJGZ UIFN DPOTUSVDUJWJTU o̓DPODSFUF FYQFSJFODF PG BO FWFOU LOPXMFEHF PG UIF QBTU BOE QPTU OPSNBM NFUIPE o XIFO GBDUT BSF VODFSUBJO WBMVFT BSF EFCBUFE BOE

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

the stakes high; it is necessary to have an innovative method to find solutions in the full knowledge that there is no universal one. :WFT -F #BST EFĂśOFE SJTL BT CFJOH UIF TVN PG IB[BSET WVMOFSBCJMJUJFT BOE FYQPTVSFT and the necessity of engineering and

Diagram

4

GBCSJDBUJOH QVCMJD QPMJDJFT GSPN +FBO 1IJMJQQF 'POUFOFMMF T QSFTFOUBUJPO XF TIBMM SFUBJO UIBU risk maps are representations that may be VOEFSTUPPE BT NPEFMT UIBU BSF TVCKFDU UP discussion.

Health Risks

Health risks Emergence and re-emergence Morbidity and animal mortality Endemisation Transmission to man (zoonotic risk) Economic risks Treatment costs Livestock renewal Loss of productivity Loss of right to export... Risk for food security Availability of animal proteins

Source: Author’s construction.

A health risk is the emergence of a new EJTFBTF PS UIF SF FNFSHFODF PG B EJTFBTF UIBU was already imperceptibly present and that reappears in a place at a given moment. The risk is thus linked to the appearance of sick PS EFBE BOJNBMT UP UIF BSSJWBM PG B EJTFBTF JO B DPVOUSZ PS B SFHJPO "OE UIFO XF IBWF PG DPVSTF UIF [PPOPUJD SJTL XIJDI JT UIBU PG UIF transmission of a virus to man. These health SJTLT IBWF FDPOPNJD DPOTFRVFODFT 8IFO B EJTFBTF BQQFBST JO B DPVOUSZ UIF MBUUFS MPTFT

JUT QSPEVDUJWJUZ BOE NBZ MPTF JUT SJHIU UP FYQPSU HPPET JO MFTT EFWFMPQFE DPVOUSJFT UIJT DBO pose problems in terms of the availability PG BOJNBM QSPUFJOT 5IF DPOTFRVFODFT PG BO epidemic on farms may thus be dramatic EFQFOEJOH PO UIF DPOEJUJPOT PG FYQPTVSF and the level of vulnerability. The images JOTFSUFE JO UIF EJBHSBN SBJTF UIF RVFTUJPO PG TDBMFT FQJEFNJDT NBZ CF HMPCBM PS MPDBM PO the scale of a city or a farm.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Image

1

Epidemiological Control and Surveillance Systems

Get your binoc ulars; the 17th cow to the lef t, looks suspiciou in the back s!

Source: GREEN Research Unit, CIRAD.

-FU VT UBLF B MPPL BU UIF JNQMFNFOUBUJPO PG FQJEFNJP TVSWFJMMBODF TZTUFNT XIJDI JT along the lines of what Vanessa Manceron EFTDSJCFE B TZTUFN PG TVSWFJMMBODF BOE

Diagram

5

DPOUSPM JT BMTP B TPDJBM TZTUFN XJUI IJFSBSDIJFT B TZTUFN PG BVUIPSJUJFT QSBDUJDFT DVMUVSF BOE history.

Surveillance Systems

B. Dufour

Farmers

Markets abattoirs

Field teams

Surveillance points

Central unit

P. Hendrikx

Regional units Border posts Epidemilogical unit

Local

Intermediary

Source: AGIRs.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Central

A surveillance and control system groups UPHFUIFS TVSWFJMMBODF QPJOUT PO CPSEFST JO BCBUUPJST PO NBSLFUT BOE PO GBSNT Field teams visit these control points in PSEFS UP DBSSZ PVU TBNQMJOH BTL RVFTUJPOT etc. The information is sent back to regional VOJUT XIJDI NBZ UIFNTFMWFT WJTJU UIFTF DPOUSPM QPJOUT *O QSJODJQMF UIF JOGPSNBUJPO JT DFOUSBMJTFE GPS BOBMZTJT *U JT B EBUB BDRVJTJUJPO system that will be analysed with the help PG TUBUJTUJDBM UPPMT *U BMTP IBT BO JOTUJUVUJPOBM EJNFOTJPO BT JU JT B RVFTUJPO PG TUBUF managed public health issues.

Diagram

6

8F BSF USZJOH UP QSPQPTF B NFUIPE UIBU IBT BMSFBEZ CFFO BEPQUFE CZ BOPUIFS $*3"% team for problems in managing natural SFTPVSDFT BOE XIJDI IBT BT B CBTJT GPS JUT SFøFDUJPOT UIF XPSL PG &MJOPS 0TUSPN an economist who has worked on public goods management and is proposing a constructivist and post-normal approach. 5IF̓ JEFB JT UP HJWF EJòFSFOU QMBZFST UIF possibility of participating in the defining PG UIF NFBTVSFT UIBU DPODFSO UIFN *U JT presupposed that the players can also be JOOPWBUJWF JO UIF EFĂśOJOH PG UIFTF NFBTVSFT as it is in their interest to find the right solutions.

Which Stakeholders? Which Roles? Which Perceptions? What Place for Modelling and Simulation?

Surveillance

Control

Epizooty

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

)PX DBO XF IFMQ UP DPOTUSVDU B method that will be complementary to UIF JOTUJUVUJPOBM DMBTTJDBM IJFSBSDIJDBM POFT There are generally three components of BO FQJEFNJPMPHJDBM TZTUFN o TVSWFJMMBODF control and the disease itself; and each PG UIFTF JT FYUSFNFMZ DPNQMJDBUFE 5IF TVSWFJMMBODF TZTUFN JT B DPNQMFY FDPOPNJD and social system; control is either a specific action or takes place over longer periods

Diagram

7

o PSHBOJTBUJPO DPTUT MPHJTUJDT o BOE UIF preparation for the management of risks; UIF EJTFBTF JT B NVUBUJOH WJSVT XIJDI̓JOGFDUT IPTUT BOE USBOTNJTTJPO CFUXFFO IPTUT JT B DPNQMFY QIFOPNFOPO UIBU NJYFT JOUFSBDUJPO between individuals and biological systems (immunity). Each of these component parts plays an essential role in the global system.

Modelling Relies on Three Entities. “The Minsky Triad� Model A*

Relation with the model

Observer B Marvin L. Minsky Relation with the object

Object A Source: 1965, “Minsky Triad“, BontĂŠ et al., 2012.

.BSWJO .JOTLZ QSPQPTFE B EFĂśOJUJPO “For an observer B, an object A* is a model of A if B can answer questions that are of interest to it about A by using A*â€?. This definition places the model in a clear and general way; it allows us to consider modelling as a triad – “The .JOTLZ 5SJBEw o XIFSF BO PCTFSWFS # JT DFOUSBM to a certain relationship with its model and SFBMJUZ UIF PCKFDU UIBU JT NPEFMMFE .PEFMMJOH JT QBSU PG BO BDUJWJUZ JO B DZDMF UIBU JT SFGFSSFE to as the modelling and simulation cycle TFF EJBHSBN OFYU QBHF 5IF .PEFMMJOH BOE Simulation Cycle). 8F BMXBZT CFHJO XJUI B RVFTUJPO B QSPCMFN UIBU JT SBJTFE BCPVU BO PCKFDU 8F IBWF

LOPXMFEHF QSFDPODFJWFE OPUJPOT BCPVU UIJT PCKFDU 5IFO XF DPOTUSVDU B SFQSFTFOUBUJPO the model. The data processing tool will allow VT UP FYUFOE PVS DBQBDJUZ XJUI TJNVMBUJPOT that are going to be the reflection of the activity represented by this model. This group of calculations will provide results that will be analysed and deliver elements of a response UIBU XJMM BMMPX B SFEFĂśOJOH PG UIF RVFTUJPO The essence of scientific activity is that an BOTXFS BMXBZT MFBET UP BOPUIFS RVFTUJPO 5IJT̓ JEFB JT TZNCPMJTFE IFSF JO UIF DFOUSF CZ UIF ESBXJOH CZ . $ &TDIFS XJUI B OFWFS FOEJOH XBUFSGBMM UIF BDUJWJUZ JT FOEMFTT 5IF NPEFM JT OPU B ĂśOJTIFE QSPEVDU GSP[FO in time.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram

8

The Modelling and Simulation Cycle

Source: Author’s construction.

Artificial intelligence has failed to produce intelligent machines. We are still a long way from producing a machine capable of perceiving information and processing

Diagram

9

it according to its historical and cultural context and experience, and representing this information in the same way as a human being would do in his mind.

Different Perceptions and Mental Representations, Different Models of Reality

x

Source: Images found on Internet. Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[125]

The advantage of participation is that by JODMVEJOH UIF TUBLFIPMEFST JO UIF QSPDFTT XF JO GBDU JODMVEF UIFJS TVCKFDUJWJUZ UIFJS IJTUPSZ UIF XIPMF PG UIFJS MJGF FYQFSJFODF 8F BSF XFMM BXBSF UIBU UIF TBNF JNBHF NBZ IBWF EJòFSFOU meanings depending on how we look at it. We thus modify the definition given by Marvin .JOTLZ CZ JODMVEJOH B HSPVQ PG JOEJWJEVBMT “For a group of individuals B, an object A* is a model of A if A* is a consensus among B w *U JT important that the whole group agree that UIF PCKFDU " JT JOEFFE B SFQSFTFOUBUJPO PG

Box

6

UIF PCKFDU UIBU XF BSF JOUFSFTUFE JO BOE UIBU JU JT B RVFTUJPO PG EFBMJOH XJUI B DPNNPO JTTVF SFMBUJWF UP " CZ VTJOH " 5IF NPEFMMJOH JT TUJMM B USJBE FYDFQU UIBU XF OPX IBWF B HSPVQ BOE OPU BO JOEJWJEVBM *O UIJT DBTF UIF JTTVF JT UIF DPOTFOTVT )PX DBO XF BSSJWF BU B consensus between stakeholders with highly IFUFSPHFOFPVT TPDJBM BOE IJTUPSJDBM PSJHJOT XIP QMBZ EJòFSFOU SPMFT BOE IBWF EJòFSFOU MFWFMT PG LOPXMFEHF BOE EJòFSFOU JOUFSFTUT The art of participatory modelling lies in arriving at this result.

Construct A* With the Stakeholders B of the System

Problem: How can we improve surveillance and control services? ()*+,$)-./.-)"0)1#+$%2%1#$%"&3 Ask the stakeholders in the system to describe it Example of types of stakeholders Farmers Semi-industrial farmers Village vets District agriculture and forestry officers Provincial agricultural and forestry officers FAO National Animal Health center (NAHC) Source: BontĂŠ et al., 2012.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Workshop in Laos

The idea is to know how to improve the surveillance and control services for avian flu in a given country. Stakeholders are NPCJMJTFE JO PSEFS UP EFTDSJCF UIFJS BDUJWJUZ GBSNFST TFNJ JOEVTUSJBM GBSNFST WJMMBHF WFUT BHSJDVMUVSBM BOE GPSFTUSZ PĂłDFST GSPN

UIF QSPWJODF UIF '"0 BOE UIF /BUJPOBM "OJNBM )FBMUI $FOUFS GPS -BPT *OGPSNBUJPO JT gathered in the form of a semi-structured or PQFO RVFTUJPOOBJSF BOE UIFO UIF PCKFDUJWF JT to fabricate a representation in laboratory.

Diagram 10 Loop Analysis Modelling Surveillance Control

Control at local level Surveillance efforts Extent of an epizooty

Threshold effects linked to perception of risks! An identical result in Laos, Cambodia and Thailand Epizooty Source: Collineau et al., 2013.

5IF MPPQ BOBMZTJT NPEFMMJOH UFDIOJRVF XBT used. We find here again the three initial DPNQPOFOUT TVSWFJMMBODF DPOUSPM BOE FQJ[PPUJD EJTFBTF 5IFTF TVQSB FMFNFOUT BSF DPNQPTFE PG EJòFSFOU FMFNFOUT BOE MJOLT BSF FTUBCMJTIFE CFUXFFO UIF DPNQPOFOUT GPS̓ FYBNQMF IPX JT UIF JOUFOTJUZ PG UIF disease on small farms linked to the intensity PG TVSWFJMMBODF 5IF RVFTUJPOOBJSFT UPME VT UIBU JG NPSF DIJDLFOT EJF UIF GBSNFS will increase his own surveillance and may JNQMFNFOU DPOUSPM NFBTVSFT RVBSBOUJOJOH TBMFT USFBUNFOUT 5IF JOTUJUVUJPOT BMTP TFOE back information when there is an increase PG EJTFBTFE DIJDLFOT JO B HJWFO SFHJPO XIJDI

will trigger a larger surveillance and control measures. The arrows that terminate in a triangle indicate a positive influence of one variable PO BOPUIFS UIBU JT UP TBZ UIBU UIF JODSFBTF in the variable at the origin of the arrow will result in an increase of the variable at JUT FYUSFNJUZ 5IF BSSPXT UIBU UFSNJOBUF JO a circle represent a negative influence. The absence of an arrow indicates the absence of any relationship (Collineau et al 5IF TUBLFIPMEFST UIFNTFMWFT KVEHFE UIJT SFQSFTFOUBUJPO WBMJE $BMDVMBUJPO UFDIOJRVFT allow us to say that if you intensify controls at B MPDBM MFWFM UIFO ZPV BSF HPJOH UP SFEVDF UIF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

TVSWFJMMBODF FòPSU BOE ZPV XJMM BMTP SFEVDF UIF FYUFOU PG UIF FQJ[PPUJD 0OF IZQPUIFTJT is to say that if farmers are made aware of UIF JNQPSUBODF PG JNNFEJBUF DPOUSPM UIF economic cost will be less. Some limits to this representation must also CF QPJOUFE PVU QBSUJDVMBSMZ UIF UISFTIPME FòFDUT MJOLFE UP SJTL QFSDFQUJPO )PX many animals must die for the farmer to JODSFBTF TVSWFJMMBODF 5IBU EFQFOET PO UIF farmer’s perception of the risk. The same FYFSDJTF XBT̓ DBSSJFE PVU JO $BNCPEJB BOE 5IBJMBOE BOE̓UIF DPODMVTJPOT XFSF JEFOUJDBM intensification of local control is more FòFDUJWF UIBO BO JOUFOTJĂśDBUJPO PG OBUJPO surveillance.

Systemic modelling is a way of seeing the XPSME 'SPOUJFST BSF ĂśYFE JO PSEFS GPS VT to observe how the components interact with each other and evolve with time. Each component is itself composed of a TVC TZTUFN XIJDI JT JUTFMG DPNQPTFE PG JOUFSBDUJOH DPNQPOFOUT FUD 5IF TZTUFNJD modelling method is to define frontiers in SFMBUJPO UP B HJWFO QSPCMFN CZ JODMVEJOH B MFWFM PG HSBOVMBSJUZ PG QSFDJTJPO ;FJHMFS et al "MM PG UIJT NJHIU JEFOUJGZ UIF GSP[FO WJTJPO PG B SPCPU CVU UIF TJNVMBUJPO PG B MBSHF OVNCFS of these robots interacting with each other leads to multi-agent modelling.

Diagram 11 Systemic Modelling Focal level +1 Emergence Constraints

Focal level (modelling)

Focal level - 1

Source: According to Drogoul and Gaudou (2012), author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

%JBHSBN SFQSFTFOUT TFWFSBM JOUFSBDUJOH BVUPNBUB BU B GPDBM MFWFM XIJDI JT UIBU PG NPEFMMJOH o GPS FYBNQMF UIF JOEJWJEVBMT in a system of surveillance and control. All UIF JOEJWJEVBMT BSF EFTDSJCFE BOE XF DBO see that inside each individual there are several mechanisms describing behaviour GPDBM MFWFM̓ 8IFO BMM UIFTF QSPHSBNNFT BSF TJNVMBUFE OFX HMPCBM QSPQFSUJFT NBZ appear. This type of modelling captures a QSPQFSUZ PG̓SFBMJUZ JO XIJDI XF BSF JOUFSFTUFE emergence. * IBWF MBJE UIF GSBNFXPSL GPS DPNQBOJPO NPEFMMJOH XIJDI JT B NFUIPE PG QBSUJDJQBUPSZ

modelling. This method posits that it is necessary to conceive other methods and that it must evolve. We are at the heart of postnormal constructivist attitudes; this method DBOOPU UIVT CF GSP[FO JO UJNF * SFDPNNFOE you to read the work directed by Michel &UJFOOF UIBU QFSGFDUMZ EFTDSJCFT UIJT FNQJSJDBM BOE IJHIMZ DPOUFYUVBMJTFE NFUIPE 'PS FBDI FYQFSJNFOU UIF DPOTUSVDUFE NPEFM is one of an instant. What is interesting is the construction process of the model and the sharing of knowledge that takes place CFUXFFO UIF EJòFSFOU TUBLFIPMEFST JO UIF construction process.

Diagram 12 Companion Modelling (1)

Source: Author’s construction.

The starting point is an individual SFQSFTFOUBUJPO PG UIF TZTUFN FBDI QFSTPO QFSDFJWFT IJT IFS XPSME CVU UIF QMBZFST are in the same world. Companion modelling attempts to co-construct a shared representation in order to establish a dialogue that will in return modify individual

SFQSFTFOUBUJPOT 6OUJM OPX UIJT IBT CFFO applied to problems concerning the management of natural resources; but this method may be applied to public health problems by considering them to be a common good.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Diagram 13 Companion Modelling (2) A

A*

B

Role playing

Simulations

A common representation Source: Author’s construction.

The two tools principally used to construct a common representation of the system are simulation and role-playing. System " JT QFSDFJWFE CZ 1MBZFST # UISPVHI SPMF playing and/or computer simulations that BSF CPUI JOTUBODFT PG NPEFM " PG TZTUFN " Putting things into practice in the form of a game will allow players to clarify in rule form the decisions and actions that they take in the system. They thus create a common representation in the form of games and simulation. "T TUBUFE BCPWF UIF NPEFMMJOH DZDMF CFHJOT XJUI B RVFTUJPO B QSPCMFN 'PS FYBNQMF how can we improve the surveillance and control of avian flu on the borders on a SFHJPOBM MFWFM CFUXFFO 5IBJMBOE 7JĚ?U /BN -BPT BOE $BNCPEJB 'SPN UIJT RVFTUJPO XF use companion modelling and one of the UFDIOJRVFT GSPN XIJDI JU JT DPNQPTFE DBMMFE Problems Actors Resources Dynamics and

*OUFSBDUJPOT 1"3%* .FFUJOHT BSF PSHBOJTFE where the problem is defined by all the players/stakeholders – what dynamics are at QMBZ JO UIF SFTPVSDFT BOE CFUXFFO QMBZFST )PX EP UIFZ JOUFSBDU TFF NBQ OFYU QBHF $PNQBOJPO NPEFMMJOH

*O UIJT DBTF UIF QPJOUT PG JOUFSFTU GPS BMM UIF QMBZFST XFSF TJUVBUFE BU EJòFSFOU GSPOUJFST 8F̓ DBO TFF UIF MJOLT CFUXFFO UIF DBQJUBMT which signify the need to communicate CFUXFFO UIFTF EJòFSFOU DBQJUBMT UP FWFOUVBMMZ deal with crises on regional scales. At the end of the blue lines are the border posts that have been identified as relevant for TVSWFJMMBODF CZ EJòFSFOU BDUPST 5IF MJOFT KPJO UIFTF QPJOUT XJUI UIF DBQJUBMT TZNCPMJTJOH UIF USBOTQPSU PG HPPET BOE UIVT B QPTTJCJMJUZ of contamination by trade routes (see photos OFYU QBHF $PNQBOJPO .PEFMMJOH

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Map 11 Companion Modelling (3)

Source: Author’s construction.

Photos 17-18 Companion Modelling (4)

Source: Author’s construction.

The players discuss a representation of the system using a simple graph formalism UIBU IBT CFFO FYQMBJOFE UP UIFN BOE JT

thus understood. The diagram may be then translated by a computer scientist in the form PG B QSPHSBNNF PG DBMDVMBUJPOT

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Table

6

Companion Modelling (5)

(1)

(1) (1) (1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1) (1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

Source: Author’s construction.

8F IBWF QMBZFST UJNF QBSUJDVMBS BDUJPOT and interactions. The actors of the system CVJMU UIJT HSBQI UIFNTFMWFT JO IBMG B EBZ they reached an agreement to say that the system’s important stakeholders on the GSPOUJFST XFSF UIF QPMJDF USBWFMMFST WFUT BOE

traders; it is thus necessary to represent this system on the border between two countries JO PSEFS UP VOEFSTUBOE XIBU IBQQFOT UIFSF even before the defining of a surveillance protocol.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Table

7

Companion Modelling (6)

A component of A* diffusion in the network

Prevalence

Dynamic of the epizooty

Decisions, actions, taking into account of risk perception

Proportion

Size of sample group for surveillance

Consequence of decisions, actions...

Prevalence

Dynamic of the epizooty Predictions Observations Controls

Simulation time Tuc: “Triad Under Controlâ€?; it is a model that includes surveillance and control. Source: BontĂŠ et al. (2012).

:PV IBWF IFSF B TJNVMBUJPO PG UIF UISFF component system. *O UIF VQQFS QBSU UIF EJTFBTF BOE UIF situation of any disease with its prevalence JO UIF QPQVMBUJPO :PV DBO PCTFSWF UIF situation with the implementation of surveillance and control (solid line) and without (dotted line). One of the system’s DPNQPOFOUT JT UIF GSFRVFODZ PG JOTQFDUJPO visits. The necessary surveillance and control FòPSUT DBO CF EJTDVTTFE BSPVOE UIFTF HSBQIT in order to arrive at a prevalence level that is as DMPTF BT QPTTJCMF UP [FSP 8F BSF DPOTJEFSJOH introducing costs to calculate the system’s FĂłDJFODZ JG XF DBO DBMDVMBUF UIF MPTTFT JODVSSFE BOE UIF CFOFĂśUT XF XJMM LOPX UP XIBU FYUFOU XF BSF FĂłDJFOU PS OPU

Selective Bibliography #0/5& # 3 %6#0; BOE + 1 .6--&3 i.PEFMJOH UIF .JOTLZ 5SJBE " 'SBNFXPSL UP 1FSGPSN 3FøFYJWF . 4 4UVEJFTi JO The Proceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference "$. *&&& -"3026& $ + ̓)*..&-41"$) 3 1"461"5): 0 ROSE and A.M. 6)3."$)&3 FET #FSMJO %FDFNCFS $0--*/&"6 - 3 %6#0; . 1"6- . ̓1&:3& ' (065"3% 4 )0-- BOE ' 30(&3 "QQMJDBUJPO PG -PPQ "OBMZTJT GPS UIF 2VBMJUBUJWF "TTFTTNFOU PG 4VSWFJMMBODF BOE $POUSPM JO 7FUFSJOBSZ &QJEFNJPMPHZ &NFSHJOH 5IFNFT JO &QJEFNJPMPHZ

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

%30(06- " BOE # ("6%06 MĂŠthodes informatiques de modĂŠlisation Ă base d’agents JO -"(3²& 4 Ă?E j L’eau dans tous ses ĂŠtats, MĂŠthodes et pluridisciplinaritĂŠ d’analyse x $PMMFDUJPO ConfĂŠrences & SĂŠminaires Oo "'% &'&0 &4$)&3 . $ $IVUF E FBV -JUIP graphie. &5*&//& . La modĂŠlisation d’accompagnement : une dĂŠmarche participative en appui au dĂŠveloppement durable DPMMFDUJWF XPSL 2VBF Ă?EJUJPOT Q .*/4,: . - i.BUUFS .JOE BOE .PEFMTi JO Proc. International Federation of Information Processing Congress WPM QQ ̓ 04530. & A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems 7PM Oo QQ %0* TDJFODF ;&*(-&3 # 1 ) 13"&)0'&3 "/% 5 ( ,*. i 5IFPSZ PG .PEFMJOH BOE 4JNVMBUJPO *OUFHSBUJOH %JTDSFUF &WFOU BOE $POUJOVPVT $PNQMFY %ZOBNJD 4ZTUFNTi Academic Press Q

Exchanges‌ StÊphane LagrÊe )BWF UIF XBSOJOH TZTUFNT UIBU JODMVEF the tools described for epidemiology been EFWFMPQFE PO UIF 4PVUIFBTU "TJBO TDBMF RaphaÍl Duboz This has generally been done at a state level. %JTDVTTJPOT BSF UBLJOH QMBDF JO UIF DBTF PG an epidemic breaking out in Thailand for FYBNQMF OFJHICPVSJOH DPVOUSJFT BSF BMFSUFE )PXFWFS UIF RVFTUJPO JT LOPXJOH BU XIJDI moment it becomes necessary to trigger

UIF BMFSU HJWFO UIBU UIF FDPOPNJD SJTLT PG MPTJOH UIF SJHIU UP FYQPSU GPS FYBNQMF DBO CF enormous for a country. Yves Le Bars * QBSUJDJQBUFE JO TPNF TVQQPSU XPSL GPS QVCMJD̓ QPMJDJFT FOUJUMFE i$BO XF SFEVDF CZ IBMG UIF VTF PG QFTUJDJEFT JO 'SBODF w * IBE UP HVBSBOUFF UIF RVBMJUZ PG UIF XPSL CFUXFFO UIF̓ FYQFSUT UIF TUBLFIPMEFST BOE UIF TQPOTPSJOH NJOJTUSJFT *T JU QPTTJCMF UP CVJME a common vision in situations of conflicting JTTVFT 5IFSF BSF BOUBHPOJTNT BOE EJWFSHJOH JOUFSFTUT XIJDI XF TBX ZFTUFSEBZ EVSJOH the debates between the farmers and the FDPMPHJTUT 8IFO UIF TPDJBM RVFTUJPO XBT BEESFTTFE JO UIF GPSN PG iUSFODI XBSGBSFw JU TFFNFE UP NF UP CF EJĂłDVMU UP CVJME B common vision. RaphaĂŤl Duboz This method was originally developed to resolve conflicts. There was real success JO #IVUBO GBSNFST XFSF JO DPOøJDU BCPVU access to water resources and a collective NBOBHFNFOU TPMVUJPO XBT GPVOE JO -VCFSPO 'SBODF GPS DPOøJDUT CFUXFFO GPSFTUFST BOE GBSNFST UIF Institut National de Recherche Agronomique */3" CSPVHIU UPHFUIFS players who were not speaking to each other. 5IF QFSTPO SFTQPOTJCMF GPS UIF QSPKFDU IBT an essential role; the key to everything lies in human relationships. StĂŠphane Cartier *O UIF ĂśFME XIJDI JOEJDBUPST XFSF DIPTFO by the players to determine what the TZNQUPNT XPVME CF XIBU XPVME CF UIF global diagnostic for the break out or QSPQBHBUJPO PG BO FQJ[PPUJD EJTFBTF BOE what are their success or failure criteria to

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

DIBOHF UIFJS XPSLJOH NFUIPET 8IBU BSF UIFJS NFBOT PG DPOUSPM NPSF QSFDJTFMZ EP they wish to have private control carried out CZ UIF BDUJWJUZ TFDUPS MJWF BOJNBM CSFFEJOH GPS FYBNQMF PS QVCMJD DPOUSPM DBSSJFE PVU CZ BO BENJOJTUSBUJPO B HPWFSONFOU PS MPDBM BVUIPSJUZ RaphaĂŤl Duboz

JU JT OPU DPNNPO DBO CF QSPKFDUFE o TIPXO EZOBNJDBMMZ o JU BDRVJSFT B GPSDF UIBU DBOOPU DPOUBJO BOZ PG UIF JOEJWJEVBMT EJTDPVSTFT including when they describe their activity. Although this initial representation is slightly PSJFOUFE UPXBSET BO PCKFDUJWF UIFSF JT B struggle for influence that is almost amplified by the simulation. We arrive at a consensus by default.

5IJT RVFTUJPO DPODFSOT UIF XIPMF JTTVF PG surveillance networks. The Office International d’Épizooties makes case definitions that are used by veterinary services to discern the type PG EJTFBTF JO RVFTUJPO "GUFS UIF GBSNFST IBWF UIFJS PXO FYQFSJFODF BMUIPVHI UIFZ NBZ OPU use the same names for the diseases; they NBZ DPOGVTF UXP EJTFBTFT CVU EFQFOEJOH PO UIF FWJEFOU TZNQUPNT UIFZ XJMM RVBMJGZ UIF BOJNBM BT IFBMUIZ PS EJTFBTFE 5IFSF FYJTU PCKFDUJWF DSJUFSJB MJOLFE UP UIF TQFFE BU XIJDI UIF BOJNBMT EJF PO UIF GBSN CVU UIF EFDJTJPO is often political.

RaphaĂŤl Duboz

Alexis Drogoul

What is the players’ capacity to take QPTTFTTJPO̓PG UIFTF NFUIPET

These methods are based on the idea of a consensus between individuals. The computer representations used can indeed represent the conflict and maintain the conflict in a system. * IBE UIF PQQPSUVOJUZ UP QBSUJDJQBUF JO B QSPKFDU JO #IVUBO BOE * BN JODMJOFE UP CF more reserved about the consensus obtained in so far as there was a clear predominance PG POF TUBLFIPMEFS BNPOH UIF PUIFST UIF HPWFSONFOU * QBSUJDJQBUFE JO UIF $PN.PE OFUXPSL DPNQBOJPO NPEFMMJOH BOE UIBU resulted in my distancing myself from this single methodology. We saw the force and influence that a model and a simulation could have on those participating in the latter. From UIF NPNFOU XIFO B SFQSFTFOUBUJPO FWFO JG

* BHSFF XJUI UIJT BOBMZTJT 5IF QSPCMFNT MJOLFE UP UIF NFUIPE T JOøVFODF UP UIF TFJ[VSF PG QPXFS CZ DFSUBJO TUBLFIPMEFST UP the more or less conscious manipulation of UIF TVCKFDUT BSF UBLFO WFSZ TFSJPVTMZ CZ UIF $PN.PE OFUXPSLT (FOFSBMMZ PCTFSWFST BSF there during and after the sessions to point out the ethical problems that companion modelling may pose. Patrick Tallandier

RaphaĂŤl Duboz *O 4FOFHBM GPS FYBNQMF UIF QMBZFST themselves defined the representation tool of their own system. Apparently the game board that they thought up was QIFOPNFOBMMZ BCTUSBDU CVU JU NBEF TFOTF for them and represented their problem of water sharing. The choice of tool is important because it may favour a certain group of stakeholders over another. Adrian Pop :PV BSF PCMJHFE UP NBLF BTTVNQUJPOT BCPVU̓ CFIBWJPVS JOUFSBDUJPOT EZOBNJD FUD *O FDPOPNJDT XF QBZ QBSUJDVMBS BUUFOUJPO UP UIF SPCVTUOFTT PG SFTVMUT UP UIF DIBOHF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

in assumptions. Did you carry out tests on the robustness of the conclusions taking into account changes in the stakeholders’ BTTVNQUJPOT 5IF TQFDUSVN PG QPTTJCMF TDFOBSJPT JT UIFPSFUJDBMMZ JOĂśOJUF CVU UIFZ BSF NPSF PS MFTT QMBVTJCMF * TIPVME MJLF UP know if you have a way of measuring the QMBVTJCJMJUZ̓PG UIF TDFOBSJPT

RaphaĂŤl Duboz *O UIJT UZQF PG BDUJWJUZ JU JT B RVFTUJPO PG simulation. The players themselves make assumptions at the beginning. We ask them to validate the model that they JNQMFNFOU UP̓ KVEHF UIF SPCVTUOFTT PG UIF representation.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

" 4ZOUIFTJT PG UIF 1MFOBSZ 4FTTJPOT 3JTL .BOBHFNFOU #FMJFGT BOE .FUIPET Alain Henry – AFD

(Transcript) "T JT UIF DVTUPN PG 5BN å˽P SJUVBM EJDUBUFT that we summarise what has been said at the end of the plenary sessions. This NFUIPE JT FóDJFOU BT JU PCMJHFT VT UP CF multidisciplinary. The presentations that we have heard over the last two days particularly demonstrate by their diversity that the GPVOEJOH TVCUJUMF PG UIF +5% o methodological, crosscutting and critical approaches – has real meaning. * BN öSTU HPJOH UP UISPX MJHIU VQPO B QPJOU PG NFUIPE *T JU QPTTJCMF UP QSPEVDF B USVMZ NVMUJEJTDJQMJOBSZ TZOUIFTJT *OEFFE it seems presumptuous to sum up the rigorous interventions of researchers from TVDI WBSZJOH EJTDJQMJOFT BOE UIJT XJUIPVU IBWJOH UIFJS DPNQFUFODFT *U JT KVTU BT SJTLZ UP USZ BOE NBLF B HMPCBM TVNNBSZ * IBWF IPXFWFS BDDFQUFE UIJT FYFSDJTF CFDBVTF B trans-disciplinary vision appears to me to be

RVJUF PGUFO GSVJUGVM 5P EP UIJT * TIBMM VTF NZ PXO EJTDJQMJOF NBOBHFNFOU TDJFODFT BT B TUBSUJOH QPJOU * TIBMM QBSUJDVMBSMZ BUUFNQU to emphasise the points of convergence JO UIFTF QSFTFOUBUJPOT * TIBMM EP JU XJUI UIF CFOFöU PG UIF DPODFOUSBUJOH FòFDU QSPDVSFE CZ UIF EJóDVMUZ PG BO FYFSDJTF done with little time for preparation! When UBMLJOH BCPVU NBOBHFNFOU VSHFODJFT XF PGUFO RVPUF UIF XPSET PG UIF QIJMPTPQIFS 4BNVFM +PIOTPO “When a man knows he is to be hanged in a fortnight, it concentrates his mind wonderfully” *O PUIFS XPSET stress condemns one to concentrate one’s UIPVHIUT 5IJT JT XIZ JO TQJUF PG UIF EBOHFS that lies in speaking about disciplines that BSF OPU NJOF * IBWF BDDFQUFE UIF SJTL * TIBMM UIFSFGPSF RVJDLMZ SFWJFX UIF TJY QSFTFOUBUJPOT that we have heard since yesterday morning. "U UIF TBNF UJNF * TIBMM BUUFNQU UP QPJOU PVU UIF RVFTUJPOT FBDI POF SBJTFT BOE BQQMZ UIFTF RVFTUJPOT UP OFYU XFFL T XPSLTIPQT

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Vanessa Manceron’s presentation was QFSGFDUMZ DIPTFO UP PQFO UIF TFTTJPOT )FS TUVEZ PG UIF WJMMBHF PG +PZFVY BU UIF UJNF PG UIF BSSJWBM PG BWJBO øV TFUT UIF TDFOF GSPN the very outset for what will continually BQQFBS JO DSJTJT NBOBHFNFOU UIF SPMF PG fear and beliefs in social representations. The general goal of social anthropology is to discard beliefs and replace them with PCKFDUJWF LOPXMFEHF 5IF BDDPVOU TIF HBWF us showed that each one of the groups in conflict in the village can only be understood in relation to its primal fears and beliefs. She QBSBEFE UISFF HSPVQT CFGPSF VT iUIF SVSBMJTUTw the “environmentalistsâ€? and the â€œanimalistsâ€?; each of which was motivated by a particular fear and by its own vision of what is “humanâ€? BOE iJOIVNBOw 'PS̓ UIF iSVSBMJTUTw UIF IPSSPS MJFT JO UIF PWFSUISPX PG USBEJUJPOBM PSEFS UIF contestation of domestic hierarchies and the loss of the riches of the land. For the iFOWJSPONFOUBMJTUTw UIF QIBOUPN JT SBUIFS UIBU PG B XPSME UIBU IBT MPTU JUT TPVM XIJDI IBT CFDPNF BSUJĂśDJBM CZ EJOU PG iUFDIOJĂśDBUJPOw B XPSME UIBU JT TVCKFDU UP QVSF NBSLFU MPHJDT BOE̓ XIJDI JO UIF XPSET PG .BSY IBT CFFO handed over to “the cold calculation of interestâ€?. 'JOBMMZ UIF iBOJNBMJTUTw BSF JO B EJòFSFOU category altogether. They are no longer able to see any possible salvation in the situation UIFZ BSF FYQFSJFODJOH 5IFJS OJHIUNBSF WJTJPO JT UIBU PG B XPSME JO UIF HSJQ PG TVòFSJOH and disease; they announce that the end of UIF XPSME JT JNNJOFOU XIJDI JT B OFDFTTBSZ step before the dawning of a new human PSEFS 'PS UIFN UIF BSSJWBM PG BWJBO øV JT UIF beginning of an apocalypse. Each of these communities is thus inhabited by a “reference ĂśHVSFw * IBWF CPSSPXFE UIJT BOBMZTJT GSPN

1IJMJQQF E *SJCBSOF < > who argues that a figure of salvation is opposed to a vision of the inhuman. This figure of reference implicitly structures the way a meaning is given to XIBU UIF QMBZFST BSF FYQFSJFODJOH *O FBDI HSPVQ JU PSJFOUT UIJOLJOH UP UIF DPODFQUJPO the group has of its own interests. Vanessa Manceron’s study demonstrates that fear and EPVCU XIJDI BSF JODSFBTJOH JO PVS DPNQMFY NPEFSO XPSME SFTVMU JO UIF FNFSHFODF PG the reference figures of each social group. 5IVT ̓ DPOUSBSZ UP UIF JOJUJBM QSPKFDU PG BOUISPQPMPHZ JU JT OP MPOHFS B RVFTUJPO PG disenchanting the world by emptying it of its CFMJFGT CVU PG FMVDJEBUJOH JUT GPSDF 3BUIFS UIBO EJTDBSEJOH CFMJFGT JU JT OFDFTTBSZ to understand them. They are the basis of the players’ representations and their rationality. The more present risk and VODFSUBJOUZ CFDPNF UIF NPSF UIFZ PSHBOJTF social discourse. * TFF IFSF B GVSUIFS EJĂłDVMUZ 8F TIBMM IBWF UP CFBS JO NJOE UIBU EFQFOEJOH PO PVS PXO SFQSFTFOUBUJPO GSBNFXPSLT XF XJMM OPU have the same conceptions of risk. The latter depend on interpretative rationales through which we give meaning to social situations – GPVOEJOH GFBST BOE CFMJFGT PVS WJTJPO PG XIBU is human and inhuman. Our understanding PG SJTL EFQFOET PO UIF SFGFSFODF VOJWFSTFT DVMUVSBM PS MJOHVJTUJD UP XIJDI XF BSF TVCKFDU A first discrepancy already appears at a MJOHVJTUJD MFWFM *O 'SFODI UIF XPSE “risqueâ€? JT HMPCBM XIFSFBT UIF 7JFUOBNFTF MBOHVBHF DBMMT VQPO UXP SBUIFS EJòFSFOU XPSET 0VS JOUFSQSFUFST NVTU DPOTUBOUMZ KVHHMF CFUXFFO EJòFSFOU OPUJPOT rᝧi ro and nguy cĆĄ *O rᝧi ro

< > % *SJCBSOF 1 Penser la diversitĂŠ du monde 4FVJM

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

UIFSF JT UIF JEFB PG CBE MVDL PG B OBUVSBM GBUBMJUZ 8F UIJOL PG BO BMNPTU PCKFDUJWF FWFOU VOGPSFTFFBCMF CVU JOFMVDUBCMF *O UIJT DBTF IVNBOT NVTU FTQFDJBMMZ MFBSO UP BDDFQU JU UP BEBQU UP UIF EFTUJOZ UIBU JT UIFJST BOE DPOUJOVF by trying their luck again. The second term SFGFST NPSF UP B UISFBU *U FWPLFT UIF OFDFTTJUZ PG QSVEFOUJBM DPOEVDU UIF PCMJHBUJPO UP act prudently in order to avoid the disaster happening – prevent “the sky from falling on our heads” as the French say. Two terms BSF VTFE JO 7JFUOBNFTF CVU̓ POMZ POF JO 'SFODI 8F TFF UIF EFWFMPQNFOU PG EJòFSFOU SFQSFTFOUBUJPOT PG SJTL UIBU EJòFS EFQFOEJOH on the cultural and linguistic universes to XIJDI XF CFMPOH XIBU XF IBWF UP GFBS BOE the right way to act. " TFDPOE EJòFSFODF JT UIF DVMUVSBM POF 8F have heard our French colleagues mention SFDVSSFOUMZ UIF UISFBU JOBDDFQUBCMF JO UIFJS FZFT PG CFJOH EPNJOBUFE CZ GFBS PG CFJOH TVCEVFE CZ UIF GPSDF PG EJTBTUFS PG HJWJOH in to the authorities or to powerful interests. *O UIFJS XPSET XF TFF FNFSHF öHVSFT PG TQFFDI UIBU BSF TQFDJöDBMMZ 'SFODI XF French abhor the idea of being subdued by TPNFUIJOH NPSF QPXFSGVM UIBO PVSTFMWFT or of giving in out of self-interest. This fear is not universal. The reference universe that is MJOLFE UP JU JT PQQPTFE UP BOPUIFS TPDJBM WJTJPO XIJDI JT QSFTFOU JO JOUFSOBUJPOBM EFCBUFT BOE BUUBDIFE GPS JUT QBSU UP GBWPVSJOH competition and mistrusting regulatory JOUSVTJPO CZ UIF BVUIPSJUJFT 5IJT PUIFS WJTJPO XIJDI JT BO "NFSJDBO JOTQJSBUJPO FNFSHFT through conceptions that are radically PQQPTFE UP FDPOPNJD SFHVMBUJPO *U XPVME CF OFDFTTBSZ UP FYQMPSF B WJTJPO PG IPSSPS UIBU JT BHBJO EJòFSFOU UIJT UJNF 7JFUOBNFTF *O NZ PQJOJPO JU XPVME SFWFBM UIF GFBS PG CFJOH CMPDLFE *U SFGFST UP UIF JEFB PG B MJOL CFUXFFO

the gratitude owed to parents and moving BIFBE B MJOL UIBU EFöOFT B GPSN PG TPDJBM salvation. Thus the reference frameworks through which we conceive risks deserve to CF FYBNJOFE NPSF QSPGPVOEMZ *O UIF NFBOUJNF XF DBO TBZ UIBU UIF risk analyses that we are elaborating are characterised by socially shared beliefs. /FYU :WFT -F #BST PòFSFE VT BO BQQSPBDI CBTFE PO SBUJPOBMJUZ XIJDI IF RVBMJöFE BT QSPDFEVSBM XJUI B LFZTUPOF JTTVF PG NFUIPEPMPHJDBM DBVUJPO XF NVTU IF TBZT use the crisis as a starting point to seek the TPMVUJPO BOE OPU UIF PQQPTJUF XIJDI DPOTJTUT all too often in finding problems to match the solution; nor should we believe that UIF UFDIOJDBM TPMVUJPO JT iUIFw TPMVUJPO :WFT -F #BST JOTJTUFE PO UIF GBDU UIBU EJTBTUFST BSF OBUVSBMMZ PDDVSSJOH CVU UIBU UIFZ UIFO OFDFTTJUBUF IVNBO QSPDFTTFT )F DBMMFE for a breaking down of these processes JOUP FMFNFOUBSZ GBDUPST 5P UIJT FOE IF FNQMPZFE B SBUIFS DPNQMFY WPDBCVMBSZ WVMOFSBCJMJUZ SFTJMJFODF IB[BSET TPDJBM GBDUPST DIBMMFOHFT QSFWFOUBUJWF̓ NFBTVSFT QSFQBSBUJPOT ex post MFTTPOT BOE GPSFDBTUT )F öOJTIFE CZ̓ GPSNVMBUJOH BO BCTPMVUFMZ FTTFOUJBM̓ NFTTBHF GSPN OPX PO DSJTJT management must not be done as it was iJO UIF QBTUw CVU JU NVTU UBLF JOUP BDDPVOU B DIBOHJOH TPDJPMPHZ PG HPWFSOBODF )F UIVT distinguished three stages in the governance PG DSJTFT i) the first stage is the one where the TUBUF JODBSOBUFE QVCMJD BVUIPSJUZ SFHVMBUFE risk prevention and took charge of crises; ii) UIFO DBNF UIF TUBHF PG FYQFSUT XIJDI appeared in the guise of a world where scientists dreamed of leading societies thanks to the powers they obtain from SBUJPOBM BOBMZTJT BOE DBMDVMBUJPO BOE öOBMMZ iii) UIF UIJSE TUBHF UIBU JO XIJDI XF BSF UPEBZ

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

FOUFSJOH UIBU PG DPNQMFY HPWFSOBODF JO which we must associate all the players. 5IF JEFB UP XIJDI IF HBWF GPSN PG B separation between the natural origin of the disaster and the social and institutional QSPDFTTFT PG PSEFS PG XIJDI JU UIFO GPSNT B QBSU BQQFBST UP NF UP OFFE UP CF NBEF NPSF DPNQMFY 5P NZ NJOE IVNBO BTQFDUT BSF already present in the disaster and in what QSFDFEFT JU CFDBVTF PG UIF XBZ JO XIJDI UIF players conceive their social relationships and JOUFSQSFU TJUVBUJPOT :WFT -F #BST GVSUIFSNPSF underlined the fact that Fukushima was the result of human underestimation of the tsunami risk. A detailed analysis would show UIBU UIF +BQBOFTF OVDMFBS TFDVSJUZ BVUIPSJUJFT had nevertheless asked the private nuclear FOFSHZ QSPEVDJOH DPNQBOZ 5&1$0 B ZFBS PS UXP CFGPSF UIF BDDJEFOU UP SBJTF UIF IFJHIU PG the station’s protective wall. The management PG 5&1$0 IPXFWFS EJE OPU CFMJFWF JU

OFDFTTBSZ PODF BHBJO JU JT B RVFTUJPO PG CFMJFG UIFJS SJTL BOE DPTU FWBMVBUJPO DPVQMFE XJUI UIF +BQBOFTF SFHVMBUPSZ CPEZ T MBDL PG FĂłDJFODZ XF NJHIU BEE MFE UP FWFSZCPEZ ignoring the danger. The liberal organisation PG UIF FMFDUSJDBM TFDUPS BOE UIF JOTUJUVUJPOBM SFMBUJPOTIJQT XJUIJO XIJDI JU GVODUJPOT XFSF OPU TVĂłDJFOUMZ TUSPOH BT UP EFNBOE UIBU TEPCO management immediately heighten UIF XBMM 8F DPVME HJWF BOPUIFS EJòFSFOU FYBNQMF JO 7JĚ?U /BN PG UIJT JOUFSUXJOJOH PG TPDJBM SFTQPOTJCJMJUZ BOE QIZTJDBM QIFOPNFOB * SFNFNCFS SFDFJWJOH B SFRVFTU UP GVOE B QSPKFDU GPS SBJTJOH UIF IFJHIU PG EZLFT PO UIF .FLPOH XIFO UIF SJHIU BOTXFS NJHIU IBWF CFFO OPU UP SBJTF UIF EZLFT CVU UP DSFBUF B better collective governance of hydrological infrastructure. Apparently physical problems are also institutional and human problems. Once again they implicate the representations and beliefs of social groups.

Diagram 14 How Can Risk be Measured?

Risk = A x D Risk = Hazard x Danger

R=(

x

V / Re) x D (d, K)

Event Probability Demographic Density Vulnerability Harmfulness Resilience

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

:WFT -F #BST QSFTFOUBUJPO QSPWJEFT VT with the opportunity to try to clarify the vocabulary by linking the terms that he EFĂśOFT * QSPQPTF UP MJOL UIFN XJUIJO B TBNF formula that aims to measure risk. As you DBO TFF UIF NBUIFNBUJDBM NFBTVSF PG SJTL can be obtained here by the multiplication PG UXP GBDUPST UIF TJ[F PG UIF IB[BSE BOE UIF JOUFOTJUZ PG UIF EBOHFS ÂŚ 5IF ĂśSTU GBDUPS UIF IB[BSE JT JUTFMG PCUBJOFE by multiplying the probability of the DPOTJEFSFE FWFOU XJUI B WVMOFSBCJMJUZ SBUF B GVODUJPO PG JOTUJUVUJPOBM TPDJBM BOE human factors and the physical fragility of the environment). The total is finally NVMUJQMJFE CZ UIF JOWFSTF PG UIF SFTJMJFODF this being defined as the system’s capacity UP SFTQPOE FWBMVBUJOH JUT SFBDUJPO QPUFOUJBM and its capacity to be restored back to a working state; − The second factor measures the intensity PG UIF EBOHFS XIJDI JT B MJOFBS GVODUJPO PG UIF EFNPHSBQIJDBM EFOTJUZ FYQPTFE UP UIF EJTBTUFS BOE B GBDUPS K that measures the IBSNGVMOFTT PG UIF FWFOU UIF UPYJDJUZ PG UIF WJSVT UIF EBOHFSPVT OBUVSF PG UIF OVDMFBS

SBEJPBDUJWJUZ UIF TUSFOHUI PG UIF UTVOBNJ etc.). 5IJT FRVBUJPO BMMPXT VT UP UIVT NPEFM SJTL DBMDVMBUJPO "OE TJODF XF IBWF B GPSNVMB XF DBO TUVEZ UIF XBZ JU CFIBWFT 'JSTUMZ UIF risk evaluation remains relative to the players concerned; it depends on the individuals BOE DPNNVOJUJFT DPODFSOFE -FU VT UBLF BO FYBNQMF UIF FWBMVBUJPO PG UIF SJTL PG UIF ceiling of this amphitheatre falling in on us is not the same depending on whether it is evaluated by the participants or someone outside the room. The probability of our DFJMJOH DPMMBQTJOH JT FYUSFNFMZ XFBL 'PS BO PVUTJEFS UIF EFNPHSBQIJD EFOTJUZ JT MPX BOE UIF DBMDVMBUFE SJTL NPEFSBUF 5IFSFGPSF UIF risk of this ceiling collapsing is acceptable for CPUI 7JĚ?U /BN BOE 'SBODF )PXFWFS JG XF recalculate from our point of view inside the CVJMEJOH JU JT OP MPOHFS EFNPHSBQIJD EFOTJUZ UIBU DPVOUT CVU UIF QFSTQFDUJWF PG BMNPTU certain death. The danger becomes infinite GPS VT *O UIJT DBTF UIF SFTVMU PG UIF DBMDVMBUJPO JT IJHIMZ JOEFUFSNJOBUF 'PSUVOBUFMZ XF TIBSF the belief that such a stroke of bad luck will not happen today.

Diagram 15 Towards an Indeterminate Risk

Ri = (

x

V / Re) x D

Ri by player type Calculable Risk* r = a x b Today** r = e x Growing Indeterminacy

Perceived Risk Calculable Risk Fears and beliefs 4.*&. the meaning

* Example of the amphitheatre. ** Nuclear example. Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

-FU VT OPX TUVEZ BOPUIFS BTQFDU CZ UBLJOH a look at the nuclear power station accident. )FSF JT UIF XPSTU BDDPSEJOH UP PVS GPSNVMB the level of risk becomes mathematically JOEFUFSNJOBUF 0O UIF IB[BSET TJEF XIFO QPXFS TUBUJPOT BSF CVJMU JOĂśOJUFMZ TNBMM QSPCBCJMJUJFT BSF UBLFO JOUP BDDPVOU OFBS UP [FSP MFU T TBZ MPXFS UIBO )PXFWFS UIF EFHSFF PG BQQSPYJNBUJPO JT DPOTJEFSBCMF 5IVT UIJSUZ PS TP ZFBST BHP UIF QSPCBCJMJUZ of an aeroplane crashing into a nuclear reactor appeared to be infinitely small. At that time nobody dreamt of terrorist BUUBDLT TVDI BT UIBU PG 4FQUFNCFS $POWFSTFMZ ̓ PO UIF EBOHFS TJEF UIF JNQBDU JT JOĂśOJUFMZ CJH CVU̓ BMTP CBEMZ EFUFSNJOFE )PX NBOZ HFOFSBUJPOT XJMM IBWF UP TVòFS UIF FòFDUT PG $IFSOPCZM BOE 'VLVTIJNB Those who have studied a little mathematics know that the result of this multiplication – an infinitely small number multiplied by an infinitely big one – leads to great JOEFUFSNJOBDZ 5PEBZ ̓UIF̓QSPCBCJMJUZ PG BO BJS DSBTI JT JODSFEJCMZ IJHIFS )FSF XF BSF BHBJO plunged back into the horror of growing JOEFUFSNJOBDZ 'JOBMMZ ̓ QFSDFJWFE SJTL JT FWFO NPSF EJĂłDVMU UP NPEFM VOMJLF DBMDVMBUFE SJTL :WFT -F #BST JOTJTUFE PO UIF GBDU UIBU BOZ solution must receive full public support. )PXFWFS XF DBO SFNBSL UIBU UIF NPSF NPEFSO XF BSF UIF NPSF VODFSUBJO BOE DPNQMFY UIF SJTLT .PSF UIBO FWFS XF BSF JO need of shared beliefs. Those who thought that anthropology was a dying discipline because of the growing rationalising of our societies were seriously misguided. On the DPOUSBSZ UIF NPSF NPEFSO PVS TPDJFUJFT CFDPNF UIF NPSF UIFZ NVTU UBLF BO JOUFSFTU JO UIF FòFDU PG CFMJFGT * TIPVME OPX MJLF UP QBTT PO UP +FBO 1IJMMJQQF 'POUFOFMMF T QSFTFOUBUJPO XIJDI

gave us a multitude of geographical data on Southeast Asia. This region seems to be characterised by the violence of its natural milieu and high demographic growth. )F JMMVTUSBUFT JO IJT PXO XBZ UIF QSPCMFN PG USBOTMBUJPO TJODF XF TVEEFOMZ XFOU from a rᝧi ro risk to a nguy cĆĄ POF GSPN B natural probability of bad luck to a threat. )JT QSFTFOUBUJPO VOEFSMJOFT UIF JOUFSFTU PG the graphic representation of numerical JOEJDBUPST XIJDI SFTVMU JO JODSFBTFE awareness and the mobilisation of players JO SFTQPOTF UP FNFSHFODJFT )JT SFNBSLT BSF CBTFE VQPO IVNBO HFPHSBQIZ )F IJHIMJHIUT the opposing relationships of man and TQBDF 0O UIF POF IBOE PWFS UIF DFOUVSJFT man has sought to live in synergy with IJT NJMJFV )F IBT BEBQUFE IJT BHSJDVMUVSBM UFDIOJRVFT BDDPSEJOH UP XIFUIFS UIF øVWJBM JOGSBTUSVDUVSFT XFSF PG BO *OEJBO PS $IJOFTF UZQF 0O UIF PUIFS IBOE UIF DVSSFOU NJHSBUPSZ flows create dangerous accumulations of QPQVMBUJPOT JO [POFT UIBU BSF IJHIMZ FYQPTFE UP DMJNBUJD IB[BSET 5IF ĂśSTU USFOE UIBU PG NBO T BEBQUBUJPO UP IJT NJMJFV DBO CF PCTFSWFE PWFS MPOH QFSJPET 5IF TFDPOE UIBU PG DPMMFDUJWF SJTLZ CFIBWJPVS JT UIF TIPSU UFSN manifestation of bad governance. 5IF NBQT UIBU IF QSPKFDUFE TIPX UIF VTF XF can make of numerical indicators to make SJTLT QFSDFQUJCMF -FU VT OPU CF QVU Pò CZ UIF GBDU UIBU UIFTF ĂśHVSFT BSF QSPCBCMZ GBMTF MJLF most figures are. They nonetheless have the QPXFS UP TVCKVHBUF GBJUI BOE UIVT DPOUSJCVUF to increasing the awareness of players. They bring out the perspective of a mortal risk. These maps recall the warning of an FNJOFOU 'SFODI BOUISPQPMPHJTU $MBVEF -Ă?WJ 4USBVTT “There is not one, perhaps, of the great contemporary dramas that does not directly or indirectly stem from the growing difficulty

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

of living together (…) of a humanity that is prey to a demographic explosion”. )F IBT PGUFO CFFO SFQSPBDIFE GPS UIJT QFTTJNJTN CVU XF DBOOPU EFOZ UIBU IF put his finger on an essential problem of PVS DJWJMJTBUJPO PVS JODSFBTJOH EJóDVMUZ UP FTUBCMJTI B XBZ PG FóDJFOUMZ iMJWJOH UPHFUIFSw a problem that we tend to underestimate by hiding it behind technical-looking terms TVDI BT iHPWFSOBODFw 5IJT JT UIF WJUBM JTTVF what can we do to enable humanity to live together when faced with a demographic HSPXUI UIBU JT FYQPOFOUJBMMZ NVMUJQMZJOH SJTLT 5IJT EFCBUF MJFT BU UIF IFBSU PG UIFTF +5%T 8IFSF̓BSF XF FYBDUMZ XJUI DMJNBUF SJTL 4IPVME̓XF CF TDBSFE 0VS TBMWBUJPO EFQFOET PO B QBUJFOU NFUIPEPMPHJDBM BQQSPBDI based on ethics. This does not mean CFJOH QFTTJNJTUJD CVU FODPVSBHJOH EPVCU QBSUJDVMBSMZ FUIJDBM EPVCU XIFO DPOGSPOUFE BMM UPP PGUFO CZ SBQJEMZ BDRVJSFE CFMJFGT Then Adrian Pop reminded us that climate DIBOHF JT OPU UIF POMZ NBKPS QMBOFUBSZ scale risk. Financial risk can have very serious DPOTFRVFODFT 5IF TVCQSJNF USBHFEZ BCPVU XIJDI IF QSFTFOUFE B SJHPSPVT BOBMZTJT FOEFE JO VOQBSBMMFMFE EJTBTUFS JU JT FTUJNBUFE UIBU NJMMJPO XPSLFST MPTU UIFJS KPCT JU JT BMTP FTUJNBUFE UIBU 64% CJMMJPO XFOU VQ JO TNPLF #FIJOE UIF UFDIOJDBM BTQFDUT BOE UIF NFDIBOJTNT UIBU XFSF CSPVHIU UP MJHIU we have to see the unfolding of a human tragedy in which were caught up smallscale insolvent borrowers who had been IPPEXJOLFE QPPS DJUJ[FOT FOUJDFE CZ CPOVT IVOUJOH CBOLFST XIP JO UVSO XFSF CFJOH incited by greedy investors. And behind all UIJT B XPSME PG iHPMEFO CPZTw BEEJDUFE UP NPOFZ BOE SJTL IZQPDSJUJDBM SBUJOH BHFODJFT XJMZ öOBODJBM XJ[BSET DBQBCMF PG TFMMJOH UPYJD QSPEVDUT CZ XSBQQJOH UIFN JO CPYFT MJLF

3VTTJBO EPMMT TPME PVU BDBEFNJD BVUIPSJUJFT lauding the merits of the market and its CBMBODF FUD 5IFO TVEEFOMZ UIF IPVTF PG DBSET DPNFT DSBTIJOH EPXO QSPNQUJOH UIF bursting of first the property bubble and then the financial one. Adrian then cast light on the blurred concept of the banks referred UP BT iUPP CJH UP GBJMw )PXFWFS IF UPME VT BOE * MM RVPUF IJN TZTUFNJD SJTL JT ilike the Loch Ness monsterw *O̓ PUIFS XPSET JU T BO JMMVTJPO B DPMMFDUJWF CFMJFG /PCPEZ IBT FWFS PCTFSWFE UIJT TZTUFNJD SJTL CVU NBOZ TXFBS UP IBWF caught a glimpse of it. There are many more XIP CFMJFWFE JU FYJTUFE 5IF DSBTI XBT OPU UIF SFTVMU PG NBTT QBOJD CVU UIF MPTT PG DPMMFDUJWF faith. All of a sudden we stopped believing JO JMMVTJPOT 5IF FYQMBOBUJPO GPS UIF öOBODJBM crisis does not lie in market deficiencies or PQBRVF JOGPSNBUJPO .PTU PG UIF QMBZFST (enterprises and market operators) had the same information and the same detailed BOBMZTJT CZ RVBMJöFE FYQFSUT BU UIFJS EJTQPTBM 0OMZ CFMJFG DBO FYQMBJO XIZ UIFZ BMM IBE UIF same structured reasoning that arrived at the same conclusions. Their information was filtered through the glasses of their CFMJFGT UIF CFMJFG UIBU QSPQFSUZ QSJDFT XPVME DPOUJOVF UP SJTF UIF CFMJFG JO UIF NBHJD PG technology (certain bank managers boasted about being able to think at the speed of MJHIU iBU F TQFFEw 8IFO FWFSZPOF TIBSFT UIF TBNF CFMJFG BOE XIBU T NPSF UIPTF XIP CFMJFWF TVDDFFE JU T EJóDVMU FWFO JNQPTTJCMF to denounce their naivety. When the crisis TUSVDL JU QVU BOE FOE UP UIFJS CFMJFGT "OE ZFU TPNF NPOUIT MBUFS XF TBX UIBU UIF öOBODJBM press had begun to seek out new beliefs to which we could all adhere! #SVOP 7JOEFM GPS IJT QBSU BOBMZTFE UIF fluctuations in agricultural and food prices BOE UIFJS EFWBTUBUJOH FDPOPNJD FòFDUT

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

)F TIPXFE UIBU HMPCBMJTBUJPO JT BCPWF BMM UIF FTUBCMJTINFOU PG JOUFSEFQFOEFODF UIF connecting up of everyone with everyone. *U XFBWFT DMPTF UJFT CFUXFFO .FLPOH GBSNFST BOE UIF öOBODJBM TXJOEMFS #FSOBSE .BEPò 5IJT JOUFSEFQFOEFODF DSFBUFT B NBKPS QSPCMFN BU POF QBSUJDVMBS MFWFM UIBU PG IVNBO GPPE #SVOP 7JOEFM TIPXFE UIBU the solutions proposed by liberal economists UIPTF DMPTF UP UIF 8PSME #BOL PS VOEFS UIF influence of the American economy) reflect a blind faith in the virtues of competition o̓ JO UIFJS PQJOJPO UIF POMZ TPVSDF PG HBJOT JO QSPEVDUJWJUZ )F TIPXFE a contrario the key role that states must play in order to compensate the absence of influence on the NBSLFU PG TNBMM FDPOPNJD QMBZFST 8F̓NJHIU IPXFWFS JOUSPEVDF BO FYDFQUJPO XJUI UIF 7JFUOBNFTF FYBNQMF XIFO UIF TNBMM producers got enthusiastic about growing DPòFF UIFZ TVDDFFEFE BMPOF JO NBLJOH UIF XPSME DPòFF QSJDF GBMM 5IFJS TPDJBM DPIFTJPO XIJDI JT CBTFE PO DFSUBJO QSPöU XBT FOPVHI to make world prices fall. There is no universal QBOBDFB PUIFS̓UIBO UIPTF UIBU BSF CBTFE PO shared beliefs between players. #SVOP 7JOEFM CFHBO IJT QSFTFOUBUJPO PO UIF BHSJDVMUVSBM HPPET NBSLFU CZ RVPUJOH GSPN Le dialogue sur le commerce des blés CZ UIF "CCPU 'FSEJOBOEP (BMJBOJ )F DPODMVEFE CZ TBZJOH UIBU UIFSF XBT OP VOJWFSTBM TPMVUJPO )F could not have better chosen the teachings GSPN UIJT XPSL XIJDI XBT QVCMJTIFE JO JO XIJDI POF DPVME BMSFBEZ SFBE “The greatest human error is to believe that what was true at one time is true at other times and in other places” *O BHSFFNFOU XJUI UIJT PCTFSWBUJPO let me remind you that a scientific law is defined less by a general statement than by the limits within which it frames this statement. We must not forget to study the

laws of economy and societies by placing UIFN JO UIFJS DPOUFYU 'JOBMMZ UP DPODMVEF UIFTF QMFOBSZ TFTTJPOT 3BQIBÑM %VCP[ JOJUJBUFE VT UP UIF FODIBOUJOH XPSME PG NPEFMT BOE UIFJS MJNJUT )F TIPXFE VT UP XIBU FYUFOU TPDJFUJFT DPVME CF DPNQMFY and systems of action interdependent. )F̓FNQIBTJTFE UIBU UIFSF JT OP TJNQMF DIBJO 5IF BQQSPBDI NVTU CF TZTUFNJD )F TIPXFE UIBU B NVMUJ EJTDJQMJOBSZ FòPSU JT OFDFTTBSZ "̓NPEFM IF FYQMBJOFE JT ian object that serves as an answer to questions that B asks about how A functionsw 5IF QSJODJQBM PCKFDUJWF PG simulation models is to help us collectively reflect on the behaviour of players. )F̓ SFNBSLFE IPXFWFS UIBU UIF EJóDVMUJFT of modelling are linked to the players’ illusions and beliefs – by reminding us of the FYBNQMF PG UIF EVBM JOUFSXPWFO QJDUVSF PG B young lady and an old woman. An algorithm cannot distinguish between these two JNBHFT XIJDI EFNPOTUSBUFT UIF MJNJUT PG BVUPNBUFE TZTUFNT )F BMTP FYQMBJOFE UIBU models cannot take into account situations PG JSSFNFEJBCMF DPOøJDU *OEFFE * WF IBE UIF FYQFSJFODF PG UIF EJóDVMUJFT JO DSFBUJOH B EJBMPHVF CFUXFFO EFWFMPQNFOU FYQFSUT BOE EJTTFOUJOH NJMJUBOUT OPU VOMJLF UIF BOJNBMJTUT QPSUSBZFE CZ 7BOFTTB .BODFSPO *U UPPL TJY months to get them to sit around the same UBCMF 5IFZ TQPLF UP FBDI PUIFS QPMJUFMZ CVU the dialogue led to nothing. Models stumble BU B NBKPS QSPCMFN UIFZ DBOOPU TJNVMBUF GFBS )FSF XF SFUVSO UP 7BOFTTB .BODFSPO T QSFTFOUBUJPO GFBS JT UIF GPVOEBUJPO PG CFMJFGT that give a meaning to the players’ vision. * BTL UIF XPSLTIPQT UP DPOTJEFS UIFTF EJWFSTF NFUIPEPMPHJDBM FMFNFOUT UP TFF UIF OFFE GPS B TZTUFNJD BQQSPBDI UP SFNFNCFS UIBU NPEFMT BOE öHVSFT BSF JOTVóDJFOU UP MPPL BU UIF NPTU OBUVSBM PCKFDUT XJUIJO IVNBO

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

processes and to bring to light the fears and beliefs that structure these representations. Scientific work consists in producing new QBJST PG HMBTTFT UISPXJOH OFX MJHIU PO CFMJFGT and improving the motivations of human FĂłDJFODZ 8JMM UIF QSPDFTTFT PG :WFT -F #BST UIF SFHVMBUPST PG "ESJBO 1PQ BOE #SVOP 7JOEFM BOE UIF NPEFMT PG 3BQIBĂ‘M %VCP[ succeed in convincing us that we are no longer in a seminar about rᝧi ro (natural bad MVDL CVU̓ BCPVU nguy cĆĄ UISFBU BOE GFBS 5IJT̓+5% UIFNF JT BMM UIF NPSF QFSUJOFOU as we are at the beginning of new awareness concerning all global systemic threats.

#Z XBZ PG B DPODMVTJPO * TIPVME MJLF UP RVPUF̓ BO̓ FDPOPNJTU QIJMPTPQIFS BOE BOUISPQPMPHJTU XIP IBT FYBNJOFE UIF QBSBEPY PG UIPTF XIP NVTU EFOPVODF erroneous beliefs and reveal the danger UIBU UISFBUFOT VT )F XIP BOOPVODFT UIF UISFBU JT OPU BMXBZT CFMJFWFE “Even when we know that the disaster is right in front of us, we do not believe what we know. [‌] Only a radical new awareness would allow humanity to find the solutions to escape from thisâ€?. *̓ JOWJUF UIF XPSLTIPQT UP GFBS UIF̓ NVMUJUVEF PG UISFBUT UIBU BSF QJMFE CFGPSF VT DMJNBUJD OVDMFBS ̓ TBOJUBSZ ĂśOBODJBM BOE BMJNFOUBSZ “We know but we do not actâ€? TUSFTTFE +FBO Pierre Dupuy.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

1BSU Workshops

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

'SPN $SJTJT UP UIF Reduction of Disaster Risk. The Case of Flooding StĂŠphane Cartier – CNRS, Jean-Philippe Fontenelle – Bordeaux Sciences Agro, Yves Le Bars – French Association for Disaster Risk Reduction

(Transcript) Day 1, Monday 22nd The first part of the morning is devoted to the introduction of the trainees and lecturers (cf. trainers’ biographies, list of trainees inserted at end of chapter) with the help of a pedagogical exercise. All the participants form two queues facing each other; each person introduces him/herself to the person opposite by giving his/her name, profession and hobbies. Then, around the table, each person must introduce the person opposite to the rest of the group. Jean-Philippe Fontenelle introduces the week’s programme and gives a quiz to test the trainees’ perceptions of flooding: its causes, the stakeholders concerned and the existing means for the reduction of risks: - What are the different types of flooding in the region? - Do you think the risk of flooding is stable or increasing? - What are the principal consequences of flooding? - What actions can be taken to measure the consequences? - Who should intervene? - What are the principal causes of flooding? - What measures can be taken to reduce the risk? - Do you think that you are sufficiently informed? - Can we live with flooding? - What are your suggestions? Beyond the pedagogical character of the exercise, precisions are notably brought to: conditions of erosion, slow and rapid river swelling, concepts of hazards, exposure and vulnerability of spaces and communities; different levels of training (individuals, organisations).

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

2.1.1. From Crisis to Feedback: Management of the Crisis’ Time Cycle The objective is to give the trainees a wider vision of the keys for analysing crises, from the preparation-prevention-protection triptych to the feedback phase including the immediate management phase of the crisis. [Yves Le Bars] * BN HPJOH UP QSFTFOU UP ZPV UIF QJMMBST PG the risk prevention policy implemented by UIF 'SFODI .JOJTUSZ GPS UIF &OWJSPONFOU UIJT XJMM BMMPX VT UP FYBNJOF XIBU JT TQFDJĂśD JO the culture and organisation of each of your countries in terms of prevention.

"MMPX NF DPNF CBDL UP IB[BSE TUBLFT BOE vulnerability with the help of these drawings. Systemic vulnerability corresponds to UIF PSHBOJTBUJPO PG UFSSJUPSZ XIBU XF DBMM iEPNJOP FòFDUTw o GPS FYBNQMF UIF TIVUUJOH down of a power plant that would cause the malfunction of a hospital and halt medical aid. 8F BMTP UIJOL PG TPDJBM PSHBOJTBUJPO FYDIBOHF and communication networks that are no longer operating during or after a catastrophe may lead to oppositions between individuals BòFDUFE CZ øPPEJOH BOE UIPTF XIP BSF OPU JO UIF TBNF DPNNVOF "OE UIFO PG DPVSTF UIFSF FYJTUT BO FDPOPNJD WVMOFSBCJMJUZ CFDBVTF PG B IBMU JO BDUJWJUJFT 'JOBMMZ BOPUIFS aspect concerns the vulnerability of the ÜOBODJBM TZTUFN PG JOTVSBODF *OTVSBODF companies may go bankrupt after a series of EJTBTUFST o B 6OJUFE /BUJPOT SFQPSU JOEJDBUFT

Diagram 16 Hazard, Stakes, Vulnerability

!

A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS EVENT is only a major risk when it threatens a zone where human, economic or environmental stakes are EXPOSEDÂ

!

VULNERABILITY measures the consequences, victims, cost of material damage, and impacts on the environment and societyÂ

Source: Ministry of Ecology, Sustainable Development and Energy.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

UIBU JO OBUVSBM EJTBTUFST SFTVMUFE JO B DPTU PG NPSF UIBO 64% CJMMJPO IBMG PG UIFTF losses were caused in the United States by hurricane Sandy and a drought. Only insured JUFNT BSF JODMVEFE JO UIJT รถHVSF OPO JOTVSFE losses do not appear.

-FU VT CFBS JO NJOE UIF EJBHSBN QSFTFOUFE JO UIF QMFOBSZ TFTTJPO BCPVU UIF EJรฒFSFOU phases concerning the reduction of disaster risk.

Diagram 17 A Reading Template for the Reduction of Disaster Risks

Source: Risk management model, protection of the Swiss population, Federal Office for Civil Protection (FOCP), 2001. Extract from PLANAT.

*U JT PGUFO TBJE UIBU EVSJOH UIF รถSTU UISFF EBZT PG B รธPPE POMZ OFJHICPVST DBO SFBMMZ PรฒFS IFMQ * JOTJTU PO UIF OPUJPO PG temporary restoration of communication BOE TPNFUJNFT UIF BEPQUJPO PG FYDFQUJPOBM legislation that modifies the hierarchy of FYJTUJOH SJHIUT 5IF SJHIU PG PXOFSTIJQ NBZ UIVT EJTBQQFBS CFDBVTF PG BO FYDFQUJPOBM NFBTVSF FYQSPQSJBUJPOT NBZ CF EFDJEFE

[Jean-Philippe Fontenelle] 'PMMPXJOH UIF FBSUIRVBLF JO 1PSU BV 1SJODF )BJUJ UIF CPSEFST SFNBJOFE PQFO JO PSEFS UP GBDJMJUBUF UIF SBQJE BSSJWBM PG BJE OP QBTTQPSUT no visa and no customs. [Yves Le Bars] "GUFS UIF JOJUJBM DSJTJT QIBTF SFTQPOTJCJMJUJFT increase with the aim of analysing the

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

situation and its recovery. Coordination is established according to the more or less decentralised organisation of each state between the person responsible for B QSPWJODF PS B EJTUSJDU BOE UIF SFTU PG UIF TUBLFIPMEFST *U JT UIF TBNF DBTF GPS SFDPOTUSVDUJPO JODMVEJOH B EJNFOTJPO PG evaluating the situation that implies the JOUFSWFOUJPO PG FYQFSUT 3FDPOTUSVDUJPO is carried out with the participation of basic stakeholders and the establishment of a work process that calls upon all the stakeholders â€“ coordination is of a political OBUVSF 5IF DMPTFS XF HFU UP UIF OFX EJTBTUFS the more apparent the local echelon becomes with warning systems. The case TUVEJFT GSPN 7JĚ?U̓ /BN $BNCPEJB PS -BPT that we are going to address will help you VOEFSTUBOE UIJT )PXFWFS UZQFT PG DPMMFDUJWF BDUJPO NBZ CF OBUVSBMMZ EJòFSFOU JO FBDI PG these countries. What is the reduction of disaster risk by QSFWFOUJPO This above all implies knowledge of the IB[BSE 1SFWFOUJPO JNQMJFT BDUJOH PO TZNQUPNT BOE SFEVDJOH FYQPTVSF 5IJT JT EPOF UISPVHI LOPXMFEHF PG UIF QBTU through the construction of an atlas of flood [POFT GPS FYBNQMF 8F DBO BMTP DBSSZ PVU mathematical and hydrological modelling work using past events in order to evaluate the means of protection in relation to river swelling that happens every thousand years or a dam burst at a given place. 'JOBMMZ UXP BQQSPBDIFT BSF JEFOUJĂśFE FJUIFS * MPPL BU XIBU IBT IBQQFOFE BOE * USBDF UIF NBQ PG UIF [POFT øPPEFE CZ B HJWFO SJWFS swelling in order to protect myself better than EVSJOH QBTU TXFMMJOHT PS * NBLF DBMDVMBUJPOT in order to predict a very rare swelling.

* SFGFS ZPV UP UIF QIPUP PG UIF øPPEFE ĂśSF TUBUJPO JO %FDJ[F 'SBODF 8PSL XBT EPOF in a certain number of communes in order UP BTTJHO NBSLT UP UIF CJHHFTU TUBLFT ĂśWF UP UIF̓ ĂśSF TUBUJPO PS UIF IPTQJUBM GPVS UP UIF UPXO IBMM UISFF UP UIF TIPF GBDUPSZ UXP UP UIF NBZPS T IPVTF BOE UIF NBJ[F fields. This system of marks for the stakes must be carried out with the whole of the population or representatives of the QPQVMBUJPO BOE UIFO UISPVHI EJBMPHVF minimum work must allow the safeguarding of the principal stakes. 5IJT EPFT OPU NFBO XPSLJOH PO UIF IB[BSE itself but on collective or individual measures o DBTFT FYBNJOFE JO UIF QMFOBSZ TFTTJPO PG UIF IPVTF PO TUJMUT JO /FX 0SMFBOT EBNT EZLFT BOE SFTUSJDUJWF NFBTVSFT GPS CVJMEJOH MBOE EFWFMPQNFOU NFBTVSFT UIF FYBNQMF PG̓3PUUFSEBN øPPE HBUFT BHBJOTU TUPSNT There are also measures to reduce the intensity and the probability of the phenomena (see EJBHSBN OFYU QBHF 3FEVDJOH %JTBTUFS 3JTLT 1SFWFOUJPO - Dealing with the source of the problem UP SFEVDF PS BUUFOVBUF UIF QIFOPNFOB SFUFOUJPO SFTFSWPJST SFTUPSBUJPO PG XFU [POFT NPVOUBJO GPSFTUT o FDPMPHJDBM measures. /BUVSBM 3JTL 1SFWFOUJPO 1MBOT /311 DBO help to correctly conceive these measures; integrated development of territories (management by catchment area). The training of construction and townplanning players is indispensable to the FĂłDJFODZ PG UIFTF NFBTVSFT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 18 Reducing Disaster Risks: Prevention

Laos Source: Author’s photograph; CĂŠmagref.

Preparation: Monitoring, Forecasting, Vigilance and Warning

:PV DBO TFF UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO NPOJUPSJOH BOE XBSOJOH

* IBWF JODMVEFE UIJT QIPUP PG B TJSFO XIJDI JT B MFHBM SFRVJSFNFOU PO UIF SPPG PG FWFSZ UPXO IBMM JO 'SBODF *U BOOPVODFT UIF BEWFOU PG BO important event about which the population must be informed.

.FUFPSPMPHJDBM BOE XBUFS NPOJUPSJOH forecast models; - Passage from monitoring to warning by the authorities responsible for civil security; XBSOJOH JT HJWFO CZ MPVE TQFBLFST BVEJP QIPOF TFSWJDFT QSF SFDPSEFE UFMFQIPOF NFTTBHFT *OUFSOFU BOE SBEJP MJBJTPOT FUD

Photo

19 Preparation: Surveillance, Forecasting, Vigilance and Warning (1)

Source: Author’s archives.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Photos 20 Preparation: Surveillance, Forecasting, Vigilance and Warning (2)

Source: Author’s archives.

Preparation: Preventive Education and Information for Citizens 5IF XBSOJOH JT NPSF FĂłDJFOU BOE CFUUFS VOEFSTUPPE XIFO $JUJ[FOT BSF XBSOFE PG UIF EBOHFS CZ appropriate methods; $JUJ[FOT IBWF CFFO JOGPSNFE CFGPSFIBOE about how to behave in these circumstances. *O 'SBODF UIFSF FYJTUT B DPNNVOBM EPTTJFS PG JOGPSNBUJPO BCPVU NBKPS SJTLT Dossier Communal d’Information sur les Risques Majeurs %*$3*. )PXFWFS UIF JOTUBMMBUJPO PG flood level markers can also be educational BOE JT DPNQVMTPSZ JO DPNNVOFT BòFDUFE CZ øPPEJOH 'JOBMMZ JU JT JNQPSUBOU UP JODSFBTF SFTJMJFODF BOE TFDVSJUZ UP EFBM NPSF FĂłDJFOUMZ with the risk. Security is an individual responsibility; the mayor remains the person ultimately responsible for the security of DJUJ[FOT BOE QSPQFSUZ BU UIF DPNNVOBM MFWFM (cf. Plan Communal de Sauvegarde).

* TIBMM OPU SFUVSO UP UIF FòFDUT PG DMJNBUF DIBOHF UIBU * TQPLF BCPVU JO UIF QMFOBSZ TFTTJPO )PXFWFS UIFSF JT B MJOL UP CF GPVOE between adaptation to climate change and the reduction of disaster risks. Climate change DBO IBWF UXP JNQBDUT B TMPX JNQBDU o UIF case of the increase in average temperature â€“ BOE BO JNQBDU PO FYUSFNF EJTBTUFST )VSSJDBOF 4BOEZ XIJDI TUSVDL /FX :PSL JO BMMPXFE NBOZ "NFSJDBO QPMJUJDJBOT UP understand that climate change does not POMZ BòFDU "GSJDB * IBWF BMSFBEZ TQPLFO BCPVU UIF QBSBEPY PG XPSLT PG BSU UIBU NBLF VT believe ourselves to be protected by a dyke or a dam. :PV IBWF IFSF UIF .BMQBTTFU EBN TJUVBUFE BCPWF 'SĂ?KVT JO UIF 7BS 'SBODF XIPTF CVSTU SFTVMUFE JO EFBE BOE NJTTJOH JO 5IF maintenance of protective infrastructures is indispensable to the prevention of natural risks policy.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Photos 21-22 The Paradox of Protection Infrastructures

Note: Dam before and after its break on December 2nd, 1959. The solidity of the basis of the work on rocks was insufficient. Source: http://paysdefayence.free.fr/malpasset/f.bruel.htm

The French System for the Fight Against Flooding

is established on a daily basis and may be downloaded.

France possesses a national database for hydrology and hydrometry that is an BDDVNVMBUJPO PG UIF NFBTVSFT GSPN stations – automated systems or readings taken by an agent. A map of swelling risk

"T GBS BT UIF TJY 'SFODI SJWFS CBTJOT BSF DPODFSOFE UIFSF FYJTUT B NBTUFS QMBO predicting river swelling.

Photo

-FU VT UBLF B TIPSU IJTUPSJDBM EFUPVS

23 1856 Flood in Avignon (France)

Napoleon III visiting victims in June 1856.  Source: Picture by William-Adolphe Bouguereau.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

*O JO "WJHOPO /BQPMĂ?PO *** JOJUJBUFE the “compassionate management of crisesâ€?. )F UPPL UIF SBJMXBZ XIJDI IBE KVTU CFFO CVJMU BOE XFOU UP "WJHOPO XIFSF IF was sketched meeting people in flooded IPVTFT /BQPMFPO̓*** BMTP DSFBUFE TFSWJDF BOE financing for the Rhone dykes. *O PSEFS UP LOPX UIF IB[BSE JU JT JNQPSUBOU to convert it into a map. Today in France UIFSF JT BO BUMBT PG øPPE [POFT Atlas de Zones Inondables ";* 5IF ";* BSF EFDJEFE CZ TUBUF services from the record of the highest known water levels or from hydrological modelling based on historical events.

Photo

- Preventive information for populations; - Preparation of aid plans; - Taking into account of flooding risk in applications for land tenure; (VJEFT PG TUBUF TFSWJDFT GPS UIF FMBCPSBUJPO PG /311 4BZJOH UIBU B [POF JT øPPEBCMF NPEJÜFT JUT land status. The debate between landowners and risk management is delicate and divisive. 8F IBWF IFSF BO FYDFQUJPOBM SJWFS TXFMMJOH PG UIF (BSEPO JO BU UIF Pont du Gard.

24 Elaboration of Exposure to Flooding Risk Plans in the Mid Rhone Valley, and its Tributaries

Source: Author’s archives.

The decision process for the elaboration of UIF øPPEJOH /311 JEFOUJÜFT UISFF HSPVQT %FDJTJPO NBLJOH CPEJFT NBZPST UIF department and the state; the political piloting of the process is particularly delicate when several authorities must DPPSEJOBUF UIF FòPSUT #PEJFT PG TUVEZ BOE FYQFSUJTF

- A territorial consultation committee (ComitĂŠ Territorial de Concertation $5$ with all the stakeholders and a specialised facilitator. This facilitator is responsible for SFGPSNVMBUJOH RVFTUJPOT BOE BMMPXJOH QFPQMF UP FYQSFTT UIFNTFMWFT BOE GVMMZ QBSUJDJQBUF 5IF HSPVQ PG FYQFSUT FMBCPSBUFT meeting notes.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

"T XFMM BT UIF NBQT PG øPPEJOH SJTL JU JT also necessary to know how to combat these risks. The action programmes for the prevention of flooding (Programmes d’Actions de PrĂŠvention contre les Inondations 1"1* aim to promote an integrated management of flooding risks with the view to reducing UIFJS IBSNGVM DPOTFRVFODFT PO IVNBO IFBMUI HPPET FDPOPNJD BDUJWJUJFT BOE UIF environment. This system allows the creation of a contract between the state and the communities and the implementation of a global policy conceived on the scale of the river basin at risk. 'JOBMMZ MFU NF ĂśOJTI CZ JOGPSNJOH ZPV UIBU EJòFSFOU TFSWJDFT FYJTU JO 'SBODF UIF .JOJTUSZ GPS UIF &OWJSPONFOU %FWFMPQNFOU BOE &OFSHZ BOE UIF (FOFSBM %JSFDUPSBUF GPS 3JTL Prevention; MĂŠtĂŠo-France for meteorological risks and regional directorates for the FOWJSPONFOU EFWFMPQNFOU BOE IPVTJOH GPS UIF NBQQJOH PG øPPEBCMF [POFT UIF OFUXPSL GPS SJWFS TXFMMJOH GPSFDBTUJOH UIF $FOUSBM 4FSWJDF GPS )ZESPNFUFPSPMPHZ BOE Support for Flood Forecasting (le Service Central d’HydromĂŠtĂŠorologie et d’Appui Ă la PrĂŠvision des Inondations 4$)"1* HoĂ ng Tháť‹ QuyĂŞn )BWF UIFSF CFFO BOZ DBTFT PG GSBVE XIFO NBQT PG øPPEBCMF [POFT XFSF ESBXO VQ [Yves Le Bars] *U T B DPOTUBOU CBUUMF GPS UIF FYQFSUT TJUUJOH around the table. What is important is to FYQPTF BOZ BSSBOHFNFOUT UIBU NJHIU UBLF place without all the necessary clarity.

[StĂŠphane Cartier] There are a lot of arrangements but in the DBTF PG EJTBTUFST UIF EFBEMPDL JT B MFHBM POF Remember the storm Cynthia at Faute-surMer. [Yves Le Bars] 5IF DJUZ PG /Ă”NFT JT BO FYFNQMBSZ DBTF where the technicians did not succeed in combatting the property arrangements and UIFO IBE UP TVòFS UIF DPOTFRVFODFT PG UIF disasters. DĆ°ĆĄng Hiáť n Hấnh 8IBU JT UIF SPMF PG SFMJHJPO JO 'SBODF [Yves Le Bars] Today the Church has no role in a secular TUBUF̓ DPODFSOJOH UIFTF BòBJST FYDFQU UP say that it has buildings that may also be SFRVJTJUJPOFE MJLF BOZ PUIFS POFT $IVSDIFT may also constitute a place for a call for solidarity between people. The past role of the Church was to give “supernaturalâ€? FYQMBOBUJPOT PG FYUSFNF FWFOUT [StĂŠphane Cartier] )JTUPSJBOT IBWF NBEF HSFBU VTF PG $IVSDI archives because the latter took care of the dead under the Ancien Regime * LOPX B statue of Saint Christopher – the apostle who IFMQFE̓ +FTVT DSPTT UIF 3JWFS +PSEBO JO UIF #JCMF o UIBU NBSLT UIF NBYJNBM 3IPOF øPPE boundaries very far from the river. [Yves Le Bars] All this contributes to risk memory.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Day 2, Tuesday 23rd The session begins with a summary of the previous day’s presentations and questions from the trainees. Phấm Thu HĆ°ĆĄng What is the population’s role in the process of NBLJOH B QVCMJD EFDJTJPO $PVME ZPV TQFDJGZ UIF SPMF PG FBDI QVCMJD CPEZ 8FSF UIFSF BOZ overlaps in terms of function between the CPEJFT JO DSJTJT NBOBHFNFOU DĆ°ĆĄng Hiáť n Hấnh Could you give us some more precise information about aid networks on a national PS DPNNVOBM MFWFM JO 'SBODF [Yves Le Bars] *O 'SBODF UIFSF JT B UBY TZTUFN UIBU UBLFT IBMG of the wealth and uses it for social actions TVDI BT IFBMUI SFUJSFNFOU VOFNQMPZNFOU benefits and public spending (civil servants’ TBMBSJFT JOWFTUNFOUT "U FBDI MFWFM PG QVCMJD BVUIPSJUZ B CVEHFU GPS PQFSBUJOH DPTUT BOE investment may be used for the construction PG EZLFT GPS FYBNQMF cf 1"1* [StĂŠphane Cartier] *O B OVUTIFMM UIF NBJO 'SFODI GSBNFXPSL JT national. The government is responsible for the security of the people and the country. The other important framework for people’s security is the municipality of villages and DJUJFT #FUXFFO UIFTF UXP GSBNFXPSLT France is composed of twenty-two regions BOE B IVOESFE PS TP EFQBSUNFOUT FBDI POF IBWJOH CFUXFFO BOE NVOJDJQBMJUJFT o JO UPUBM PO 'SFODI UFSSJUPSZ UIBU BSF

becoming more and more organised as intermunicipalities. Each municipality has a special budget devoted to risk prevention plans and DPNNVOBM DPOUJOHFODZ QMBOT #FDBVTF PG EFDFOUSBMJTBUJPO UIF EFQBSUNFOU NVTU JOUFSWFOF NPSF BOE NPSF CVU IBT JO UIF ĂśOBM BOBMZTJT MJUUMF QPXFS *NQPSUBOU RVFTUJPOT concerning coordination are being raised. [Yves Le Bars] "SF UIFSF BOZ PWFSMBQT JO UIF PSHBOJTBUJPO Many players would like to get rid of the PWFSMBQT CVU XIBU JNQBDU XPVME UIJT IBWF #FZPOE UIF EJWFSTJUZ PG UFSSJUPSJBM levels (from the commune to the state via UIF EFQBSUNFOU TUSPOH TUSVDUVSFT PG coordination emerge such as the water BHFODJFT UIBU BSF QSFTFOU JO UIF TJY NBKPS French water basins. They make sure that there is coherence – or at least highlight BOZ JODPIFSFODJFT UIFZ BSF BVUPOPNPVT XJUI BENJOJTUSBUJWF DPVODJMT CVU SFNBJO under state authority. The administrative DPVODJM JT DPNQSJTFE PG BMM UIF TUBLFIPMEFST SFQSFTFOUBUJWFT GSPN UIF BHSJDVMUVSBM XPSME JOEVTUSZ UFSSJUPSJBM DPNNVOJUJFT BOE environmental associations. These agencies are under the authority of the Ministry for the &OWJSPONFOU 4VTUBJOBCMF %FWFMPQNFOU BOE Energy. They apply a “polluter-payerâ€? policy BOE BSF WFSZ DPNNJUUFE UP øPPE QSFWFOUJPO with monitoring and warning plans for all the river basins. [StĂŠphane Cartier] The water agencies are like mutual savings banks that take money for consumed drinking water. They invest in water QSPUFDUJPO̓ QSPKFDUT CVU IBWF EJĂłDVMUZ ĂśOBODJOH QSFWFOUJPO QSPKFDUT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Nguyáť…n Ngáť?c VĂ ng 1BSU PG UIF UBY JT VTFE UP CVJME JOGSBTUSVDUVSFT #VU BSF UIF 'SFODI SFBEZ UP QBZ FYUSB DPTUT PO UPQ PG UIFTF UBYFT UP GVOE UIFTF JOGSBTUSVDUVSFT [Yves Le Bars] The construction of public infrastructures must come from public financing. Everything JT ĂśOBODFE CZ UBYFT CVU UIFSF BSF EJòFSFOU UZQFT PG UBY o MBOE UBY QBSUJDVMBS UBYFT JO EJòFSFOU [POFT 5IF QVCMJD BVUIPSJUZ JT SFTQPOTJCMF GPS UIJT *U JT JNQPTTJCMF UP JNBHJOF BSFBT XIFSF PXOFST XPVME QBZ GPS FYUSB security out of their own pockets. *O 'SBODF UIF Plan de PrĂŠvention des Risques Naturels 113/ JT FMBCPSBUFE VOEFS UIF QSFGFDU T BVUIPSJUZ *U JT DPNQPTFE PG UISFF EPDVNFOUT - A presentation report; " [POJOH QMBO JEFOUJGZJOH VOCVJMEBCMF CVJMEBCMF CVU TVCKFDU UP TQFDJBM BSSBOHFNFOUT PS CVJMEBCMF [POFT - A regulation describing the building and town-planning constraints to be respected JO FBDI [POF o GPS FYBNQMF UIF IFJHIU PG UIF ĂśSTU øPPS PG B OFX EXFMMJOH 5IF 113/ JT BOOFYFE BGUFS B QVCMJD JORVJSZ BOE BQQSPWBM UP UIF MPDBM UPXO QMBOOJOH QMBO 1MBO -PDBM E 6SCBOJTNF 1-6 BT B QVCMJD utility easement. The maps and all the documents are established under state authority but approved by the commune. The state is responsible for these maps while the commune’s local town planning is carried PVU VOEFS UIF DPNNVOF T BVUIPSJUZ XJUI UIF TVQQPSU PG UIF DPNNVOF T FYQFSUT XIP wish to participate in it. There can be much

UFOTJPO JU JT HPPE GPS UIF IB[BSE UP CF EFĂśOFE BU B IJHI MFWFM CVU BU UIF TBNF UJNF UIF DPNNVOF ĂśOET JUTFMG EFNPCJMJTFE * BN POF of those who think that we should give more responsibility to the commune – the state may suspect the town hall of being too close UP QSPQFSUZ PXOFST BOE PG XBOUJOH UP SFEVDF as much as possible the non-buildable areas; the commune may tend to argue that the state wishes to impose its rules because it is TVCKFDU UP CJH SFBM FTUBUF EFWFMPQFST -FU VT TVQQPTF UIBU B DPNNVOF IBT B QSFWFOUJPO QMBO GPS NBKPS OBUVSBM SJTLT Plan de PrĂŠvention des Risques Naturels Majeurs 113/. *U JT BTLFE UP FTUBCMJTI B DPNNVOBM rescue plan to organise aid in case of a DSJTJT *U JT BMTP EFTJSFE UIBU UIF DPNNVOFT establish a communal information dossier BCPVU NBKPS SJTLT UIBU XJMM CF QSPQPTFE UP FBDI DJUJ[FO 8IFO XF TQFBL BCPVU UIF 113/. XF BSF UBMLJOH BCPVU QSFWFOUJPO BCPVU UFSSJUPSJBM EFWFMPQNFOU XJUI UIF communal emergency action plan (Plan Communal de Sauvegarde 1$4 BOE UIF DPNNVOBM JOGPSNBUJPO EPTTJFS BCPVU NBKPS risks (Dossier d’Information Communal sur les Risques Majeurs %*$3*. XF BSF UBMLJOH about preparation. There is an organisation that concerns all the public authorities (PCS) and there is information for the population – JOEJWJEVBM JOTUSVDUJPOT GPS FYBNQMF JO DBTF PG øPPEJOH DMPTF BMM EPPST BOE XJOEPXT UVSO Pò UIF HBT BOE FMFDUSJDJUZ HP VQTUBJST MJTUFO UP UIF SBEJP EP OPU UFMFQIPOF TP BT OPU UP TBUVSBUF UIF OFUXPSL FUD Public information is fundamental to the maintaining of a risk culture. The installation of high-water flood markers is now normal and compulsory. A seller or a landlord must indicate the situation of the property with regards to natural risks. This decision has

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

DSFBUFE B NBSLFU GPS DPOTVMUBOUT BOE FYQFSUT CVU BMMPXT VT UP BWPJE NBOZ EJĂłDVMUJFT 0O UIF .JOJTUSZ PG UIF &OWJSPONFOU T XFCTJUF you can find all the elements for each DPNNVOF -FU NF DJUF GPS FYBNQMF GFFECBDL (retour d’expĂŠrience 3&9 VTFE UP DBUBMPHVF OPU POMZ UIF FWFOU JUTFMG CVU BMTP BO BOBMZTJT of what happened. This allows us to collect JOGPSNBUJPO XPSL PO FTUBCMJTIFE BDDPVOUT and to safeguard the memory of disasters o̓ 5IF *OTUJUVUF GPS %JTBTUFS )JTUPSZ BOE .FNPSZ GPS FYBNQMF

[StĂŠphane Cartier]

0OF MBTU QPJOU JOTVSBODF 5IF $"5 /"5 regime is a regime for compensating disasters that cannot be insured because it is impossible to calculate their probability. Those who insure their house must pay an BEEFE UBY PG XIJDI HPFT UP B GVOE UIBU will be used to compensate disaster victims.

[Yves Le Bars]

$SJTJT NBOBHFNFOU JT B TIPSU NFEJVN BOE MPOH UFSN QSPDFTT XJUI TFWFSBM QIBTFT OVNFSPVT TUBLFIPMEFST BOE XIJDI DBMMT GPS adapted behaviour. When we take stock of 'SFODI EJTBTUFST UIFSF BSF B DFSUBJO OVNCFS PG TUSPOH QPJOUT B USBEJUJPO PG HPPE QMBOOJOH o̓ XF EP OPU IFTJUBUF UP SFRVJSF DPNNVOFT UP IBWF B OBUVSBM EJTBTUFS QSFWFOUJPO QMBO B MPDBM̓ UPXO QMBOOJOH QMBO B USBOTQPSU QMBO FUD UIF $"5 /"5 SFHJNF XIJDI BTTVSFT UIF FDPOPNJD TUBCJMJUZ PG IPVTJOH BOE XIJDI allows people to recover their property; in TQJUF PG DPNNVOBM EJTMPDBUJPO XIJDI JT B XFBLOFTT UIFSF BSF TPNF HPPE FYBNQMFT PG elaboration processes for the prevention of flooding on the scale of river basins – another XFBL QPJOU JT UIF JMMVTJPO PG TUBUF TPWFSFJHOUZ we believe that the central power can decide everything and this can create a state of unpreparedness for certain events such as UIF IFBU XBWF

The republican system has constraining laws but there are a number of derogations o EJòFSFOU [POJOHT BDDPSEJOH UP UIF SFHJPOT because of the risk of avalanches in certain departments or cyclones in the overseas departments. Mol Vibol *O UIF DBTF PG UFOTJPO BCPVU UIF 1$4 XIP TFUUMFT UIF QSPCMFN

The commune is a fully functioning terriUPSJBM̓ DPNNVOJUZ UIBU JT TFMG BENJOJTUSBUJOH but within the framework of the laws of the Republic. The mayor is responsible for general policy and must ensure public security in the DPNNVOF #VU JO UIF ĂśOBM BOBMZTJT JO TNBMM DPNNVOFT IF IBT MJUUMF QPXFS 5IF QSFGFDU ensures this security in the second degree; the state takes over as soon as the mayor “loses controlâ€?. Nguyáť…n Tháť‹ Thanh XuyĂŞn $PVME ZPV FYQMBJO NPSF QSFDJTFMZ UIF OPUJPO PG UIF DVMUVSBM DPOTUSVDUJPO PG SJTL *T JU MJOLFE UP UIF QPQVMBUJPO T CFIBWJPVS %PFT it take into account the characteristics of UIF SVSBM QPQVMBUJPO BHSJDVMUVSBM KPCT MPDBM LOPXMFEHF̓BOE OBUVSBM SFTPVSDFT [Yves Le Bars] Risk culture implies an awareness of risk; it is the preparation of behaviour adapted to disaster situations. Risk awareness can also CF UBVHIU BU TDIPPM *O DFSUBJO DPNNVOFT teachers create a disaster dossier with UIFJS QVQJMT 5IFZ DPOTVMU UIF QPQVMBUJPO QBSUJDVMBSMZ JO SVSBM [POFT JO PSEFS UP OPUF

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

FWFOUT BOE SFBDUJPOT XIBU QFPQMF IBWF TFFO BOE FYQFSJFODFE *O 'SBODF UIF TDIPPM groups all children together at a communal PS OFJHICPVSIPPE MFWFM BOE B SFMBUJPOTIJQ with all the parents can thus be established.

commune. The prefect may decide not to declare a state of natural disaster to put pressure on a commune that has still not FMBCPSBUFE B QMBO PG OBUVSBM SJTL QSFWFOUJPO B plan of safeguard.

NgĂ´ Văn Bᝯu

DĆ°ĆĄng CĂ´ng HĆ°ng

*O 7JĚ?U /BN OP DPNQBOZ FYJTUT UP JOTVSF OBUVSBM EJTBTUFST )PX EPFT TVDI B TUSVDUVSF XPSL

What is the role of social associations and /(0T JO UIJT XPSL )PX FĂłDJFOU BSF UIFZ

[Yves Le Bars] )PVTF JOTVSBODF JT GPS ĂśSFT BOE EBNBHF EVF UP øPPEJOH *U EPFT OPU DPWFS EJTBTUFST 5IF $"5 /"5 SFHJNF JT TUBUF PSHBOJTFE BOE TFUT B SBUF BU 5IJT SBUF UFOET UP SJTF because a certain number of people abuse the solidarity. This regime is in the process of being reformed. [StĂŠphane Cartier] *OTVSBODF EPFT OPU POMZ SFJNCVSTF EBNBHF to the house but also the contents of JOEJWJEVBM IPVTFT BOE QSJWBUF WFIJDMFT however it is necessary to have proof of all QVSDIBTFT BOE JOTVSBODF *O PSEFS UP BWPJE BCVTFT B HPWFSONFOU DPNNJUUFF EFDJEFT JG UIF EJTBTUFS JT FYDFQUJPOBM PS OPU 5IF TUBUF EFDSFFT B TJUVBUJPO PG FYDFQUJPOBM OBUVSBM disaster. [Yves Le Bars] *O UIF TPVUI PG 'SBODF øPPEJOH JT DPNNPO and severe. Many communes have made town-planning decisions that are in PQQPTJUJPO UP BMM LOPXMFEHF PG UIF IB[BSE – hence the necessity of changing the $"5̓ /"5 TZTUFN *U̓ JT UIF QSJODJQBM PG TPDJBM TFDVSJUZ UIF IFBMUIZ QBZ GPS UIF JMM )PXFWFS a system of solidarity always tends to be BCVTFE 5IF UBY JT JEFOUJDBM̓ XIBUFWFS UIF

[Yves Le Bars] *O $IJOB NBOZ TPDJBM NPWFNFOUT BSF burgeoning because of natural disasters BOE QPMMVUJPO JTTVFT JO *OEJB QVCMJD UBTLT BSF BTTVSFE CZ /(0T *O 'SBODF UIFSF BSF NBOZ BTTPDJBUJPOT BOE XIFO DFSUBJO POFT IBWF SJTL NBOBHFNFOU BNPOH UIFJS NJTTJPO UIFZ participate in departmental and communal committees for the elaboration of prevention plans. When these associations are in PQQPTJUJPO XJUI UIF NVOJDJQBMJUZ UIFZ TQFBL to the media and organise demonstrations. [StĂŠphane Cartier] "JE XPSL FODPNQBTTFT NBOZ WPMVOUFFST UIF 3FE $SPTT UIF ĂśSF CSJHBEF DJWJM TFDVSJUZ etc. Certain municipalities try to create civil reserve groups for moments of crisis. Nguyáť…n Tháť‹ Thu Thᝧy *O 7JĚ?U /BN BT JO PUIFS EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT natural disasters and religion are closely MJOLFE *T UIJT UIF DBTF JO 'SBODF [StĂŠphane Cartier] 'PS PWFS ZFBST TDJFODF IBT IFMQFE organise the construction of the state. The AcadĂŠmie des Sciences was created to have a rational vision of natural phenomena.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

[Jean-Philippe Fontenelle] 5PEBZ JO DBTFT XIFSF JO UIF QBTU XF NJHIU IBWF UIPVHIU UIBU JU XBT BO BDU PG (PE XF invoke the state. The government or local politicians are designated. [Yves Le Bars] What is the image of nature in Vietnamese BOE &VSPQFBO TPDJFUZ *O (FSNBOJD SFQSFTFOUBUJPOT PG UIF XPSME UIF TZNCPM PG OBUVSF JT UIF GPSFTU GSPN XIFSF NBO DBNF GSPN *O UIF .FEJUFSSBOFBO XPSME JU JT BO JSSJHBUFE HBSEFO B NBO OBUVSF DPOTUSVDUJPO %PFT NBO NBTUFS OBUVSF 5IF EJòFSFOU SFQSFTFOUBUJPOT PG OBUVSF BOE UIF QMBDF PG NBO JO OBUVSF JOøVFODF UIF management of natural disasters.

2.1.2. Presentation of Case Studies: Cambodia, Laos and Viᝇt Nam [Jean-Philippe Fontenelle] 5IF *OGPSNBUJPO 4ZTUFNT GPS -PDBM "VUIPSJUJFT /FFET UP GBDF %JTBTUFST *4-"/% QSPKFDU XBT DBSSJFE PVU CFUXFFO BOE *UT NBJO PCKFDU XBT UP EFĂśOF BOE UFTU BO FYQFSJNFOUBM information system to help local authorities and communities better manage disasters. 5IF QSPKFDU DPODFSOFE $BNCPEJB -BPT BOE 7JĚ?U /BN *O FBDI DPVOUSZ B QSPWJODF XBT chosen because of its interest in relation to a TVCKFDU UIF 1SFZ 7VOH 1SPWJODF JO $BNCPEJB UIF $IBNQBTTBL 1SPWJODF JO -BPT BOE UIF )Ë˝J̓%Ë?ËŒOH 1SPWJODF JO 7JĚ?U /BN

[Jean-Philippe Fontenelle] %VSJOH NZ UIFTJT XPSL PO UIF 3FE 3JWFS %FMUB JU USBOTQJSFE UIBU JO UIF QFSJPE PG UIF &NQFSPS during periods of river swelling causing EZLF̓ CVSTUT EJWJOF SFBTPOT XFSF JOWPLFE *G̓UIF SJWFS CVSTU JUT CBOLT UIJT XBT EVF UP UIF %SBHPO T KVNQJOH 5IF &NQFSPS IBE B SPMF PG JOUFSDFTTPS BO JOUFSNFEJBSZ CFUXFFO UIF world of men and that of the gods. Flooding could trigger a form of revolution and a DIBOHF PG EZOBTUZ QPXFS EFQFOEFE PO UIF capacity to manage water and assure good SFMBUJPOT XJUI UIF HPET *U JT JNQPSUBOU UP cross check the reading template proposed CZ :WFT BCPVU UIF NBOBHFNFOU DZDMF BOE UIF cultural dimension in approaching disasters.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Table

8

Partnership

Partner 1

CETMEF (Centre for Maritime and Fluvial Studies), Ministry of Equipment, Compiègne, France

Partner 2

GRET (Research and Technological Exchange Group) France

Partner 3

MARD (Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development) of the RS of Vietnam, Hanoi

Partner 4

MRC (Mekong River Commission), Secretariat in Vientiane, Lao PDR

Partner 5

Dept. of Hydrology and River Works, MOWRAM (Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology) of the Kingdom of Cambodia, Phnom Penh

Partner 6

!"#$%"&'(&)*+,-.$#)/+,0.+'01,$21)$344*0&-$560&,'076$8&.&+)6(9$ NITG Geoscience Institute, Utrecht, the Netherlands

Partner 7

:;#$%:)0<&$;0,0.'&)=.$#276&9$12$'(&$>+1$:&14*&=.$?&<16)+'06$8&4ublic, Lao National Mekong Committee, Vientiane, Lao PDR

Partner 8

MICA (Multimedia Information, Communication and Applications), Hanoi University of Technology, Vietnam

Source: http://isted.ville-developpement.org/programmes/island/francais/index.htm

Each person’s tasks and activities are TVNNBSJTFE CFMPX

Table

9

Description of Activities ActivitiesÂ

TasksÂ

Meetings in France, Cambodia, Lao PDR and Exchange Asian and European experience, choose Vietnam local communities for analysis Joint seminar Identification and analysis in the chosen communitiesÂ

Collection of information Field surveys Reporting and discussionÂ

Specify, develop and adapt specific ICT tools for local usersÂ

Official approval of proposals TOR for tools adaptation Technical and test methodology validations Reporting and official presentationÂ

Testing, evaluation and reportingÂ

Presentation to local authorities and training Test and evaluation Reporting and discussionÂ

Recommendations and dissemination Â

Finalising the ITC tools Reporting and workshops Final seminarÂ

Source: http://isted.ville-developpement.org/programmes/island/francais/index.htm

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

'PMMPXJOH UIF FYDIBOHFT CFUXFFO QBSUOFST JO PSEFS UP DMFBSMZ EFĂśOF UIF QSPKFDU T TVCKFDU a collection of information and diagnostic phase was begun (cf SFBEJOH UFYUT BOE work documents). On the basis of reports NBEF UIFSF XFSF EJTDVTTJPO TFNJOBST UP FYBNJOF XIJDI JOGPSNBUJPO TZTUFNT DPVME CF QSPQPTFE BOE UFTUFE *U XBT B SFTFBSDI QSPKFDU BOE UIVT FOUBJMFE NBLJOH QSPQPTBMT BOE UFTUJOH UIFJS UFDIOJDBM TPDJBM QPMJUJDBM BOE economic feasibility. The tools proposed were numerical panels that supplied information

Box

7

and were positioned in the villages in order to decide what type of information would be useful and accessible to the population; identifying the dangers and behaviours; how can the information be updated and XIFSF JT UIF EBUB DPMMFDUFE We are going to take an interest in the diagnostic phase so that you may form your own opinion about the situation and how we can reason and suggest improvements.

Prey Veng Province in Cambodia

- A flood and drought-prone area, situated downstream along the Mekong River (11 out 12 districts; - Two districts: Peam Ro: leading position in the development and implementation of flood early warning system. Ba Phnom: a remote area, sensitive to both flood and drought risks, with very low capacities developed on disaster mitigation. - 4 communes (2 per district) and 2 villages per commune; - 4 communes (2 per district) and 2 villages per commune; - Selection based on sensitivity and disaster mitigation; - Interviews of administration and NGOs at national, provincial, district levels; - Local authorities, health centers, schools and 64 households at local level. Source: Author’s construction.

Box -

8

Champassak Province in Lao PDR

A flood and drought prone area (+ fires and whirlwinds); Champassak district, 3 villages; Selection based on flood sensitivity; Interviews at national, provincial and district (administration, hospital) levels; 45 households interviews, focus groups (head of village, mass union representatives, farmers).

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Box

9

Hải DĆ°ĆĄng Province in Viᝇt Nam

- A flood-prone area (waterlogging and water pollution); - TĆ° Ky District (lowland area, downstream of Bắc HĆ°ng Hải polder), 4 communes (2 lowland, 2 very lowland); - Interviews at national, provincial, district and commune levels (CCSFC, CSFC); - households interviews, focus groups (head of village, mass union representatives, monitoring and emergency group members, farmers). Source: Author’s construction.

*O PSEFS UP BOBMZTF IPX UIF TUBOEBSE SFQPSU GPSN JT TUSVDUVSFE * SFQSFTFOUFE UIF TUBOEBSE

Box -

QMBO GPMMPXFE CZ UIF UFBNT JO $BNCPEJB BOE -BPT o JU JT B MJUUMF EJòFSFOU UIBO JO 7JĚ?U /BN

10 Organisation of the Reports

General presentation of the targeted area; Main risks / disasters affecting the area (flood); Preparedness / Education (actions taken before the crisis); Early warning and alert procedures (from before to the crisis peak); Relief operations (action taken after the peak); Access to communication tools and potential resources; First proposals.

Source: Author’s construction.

This allows us to understand how the information is organised and you are going to work with it. The following items are BEESFTTFE UIF IB[BSE BT JU JT QFSDFJWFE UIF management of the crisis at the moment it JT EFDMBSFE UIF BGUFS DSJTJT BOE XIBU JT EPOF CFGPSF UIF BTQFDUT MJOLFE UP DPNNVOJDBUJPO knowing the challenge is to say that the JOGPSNBUJPO DBO FYJTU CVU JT JU EJTTFNJOBUFE UP UIF QPQVMBUJPO BOE IPX The challenge for you is to succeed in organising the information in relation to UIF SFBEJOH UFNQMBUF UIF TZTUFN IPX JU GVODUJPOT BOE XIBU JU MBDLT :PV IBWF UP USZ and draw a map of the organisation of the information.

The trainees are divided into three groups according to the three studies proposed. The results of the analysis must be announced to the whole group at the beginning of the next day’s session. [Jean-Philippe Fontenelle] These three studies contrast in terms of management and prevention systems linked to natural disasters and flooding. The situation NBZ CF DPNQMFY JG UIF DPVOUSZ HSPVQT together several types of organisations and MFWFMT PG BENJOJTUSBUJPO BOE IBT EJòFSFOU QSFSPHBUJWFT o UIF DBTF PG 7JĚ?U /BN CVU BMTP France as we remarked this morning.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

[StÊphane Cartier] 8IBU BSF UIF EJòFSFOU UZQFT PG JOGPSNBUJPO 5IFSF JT JOGPSNBUJPO UIBU JT WFSZ QSBDUJDBM other information that concerns surveillance and knowledge such as meteorological JOGPSNBUJPO GPS FYBNQMF [Yves Le Bars] There is information that stems from surveillance that leads to the issuing of a XBSOJOH BOE JU JT BMTP OFDFTTBSZ UP JOUFHSBUF information about behaviours. We are indeed in the preparation and management TUBHF CFGPSF BOE EVSJOH 5IF DJSDVMBUJPO of information is not only institutional. :PV BMTP IBWF UP DSFBUF LOPXMFEHF GPS UIF QSFQBSBUJPO * TQPLF BCPVU UIF XPSL EPOF JO TDIPPMT UP TJHOBM UIF IJHI XBUFS NBSLT UIJT also contributes to the mobilisation of the population.

Day 3, Morning of Wednesday 24th Presentations of the results of the work commented by the trainers. [Yves Le Bars] :PV EJEO U BMM FNQIBTJTF JO UIF TBNF XBZ UIF EJòFSFOU FMFNFOUT PG EJTBTUFS QSFQBSBUJPO 8F̓ TBX CFGPSFIBOE UISFF EJTUJODU MFWFMT iTFDVSJUZ BOE XBSOJOHw iFEVDBUJPO BOE QSFWFOUBUJWF JOGPSNBUJPOw iSFTJMJFODF BOE TFDVSJUZw 5IF RVFTUJPO QMBDFE B MPU PG emphasis on the “surveillance and warningâ€? dimension. The information trickles down but NVTU BMTP HP VQ o GPS FYBNQMF UIF QFSTPO who received the information must signal

UIBU JU JT XFMM SFDFJWFE :PV EJE XFMM UP WFSJGZ UIBU UIF JOGPSNBUJPO TZTUFN XBT TVĂłDJFOUMZ SPCVTU UP SFTJTU UIF EJTBTUFS *U JT USVF UIBU B certain number of information systems are CVJMU BT JG DSJTJT EJE OPU FYJTU 4MPX øPPEJOH HJWFT VT B CJU PG UJNF XIJDI JT OPU UIF TBNF in the case of a dyke burst. A good method to verify if a system works well is to test it. 4FDPOE QPJOU FEVDBUJPO BOE QSFWFOUJWF JOGPSNBUJPO GPS DJUJ[FOT * QBSUJDVMBSMZ JOTJTU PO the time that is necessary for a commune to become well aware of the possibilities of the disaster. There is one point that you have not specifically mentioned but which is perhaps present in the case of the model village in Cambodia or a reality in many villages in UIF /PSUI PG 7JĚ?U /BN UIF DPNNVOBM PS village recovery plan. That is to say the fallCBDL BSSBOHFNFOUT JO TVDI PS TVDI B SFGVHF XJUI TVDI PS TVDI B NFBTVSF EFQFOEJOH on the gravity of the crisis. Organising or formulating this recovery is something that must be done in order to progress in many countries. [Jean-Philippe Fontenelle] *O $BNCPEJB UIF SFHSPVQJOH PG UIF population at elevated locations is organised. "U UIFTF MPDBUJPOT SPXJOH CPBUT XPPE GPS ĂśSFT BOE GPEEFS GPS DBUUMF BSF QMBDFE *O UIF DBTF PG øPPEJOH UIF QPQVMBUJPO BTTFNCMFT here and must come with food – the problem is drinking water and health problems linked to the consumption of floodwater. The communal plan is a tool for fair management for the whole of the village population.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[StÊphane Cartier] One of the main issues is the ability to transform information into action. * GPVOE GPVS UZQFT PG JOGPSNBUJPO NFBTVSFT UIBU BSF SFHVMBS JOGPSNBUJPO JOGPSNBUJPO GSPN UIF BVUIPSJUJFT BCPVU UIF BSSJWBM PG B QSPCMFN GSPN UIF UPQ EPXO JOTUSVDUJPOT EJSFDUJWFT inventories of damage to communicate needs to the authorities. 8IBU * EJEO U TFF B MPU PG JO UIF DBTF TUVEJFT JT knowledge of local criteria by the population about weak signals authorising initiatives and BVUPOPNZ JO EFDJTJPO NBLJOH -FU VT UBLF B MPPL BU GPVS FYBNQMFT *O 5BJXBO *O UIF )VBMJFO UIF JOIBCJUBOUT PG B WJMMBHF FWBDVBUFE EVSJOH UIF cyclone because the warning was given by the noise of the rain in the trees. The village XBT TVCTFRVFOUMZ EFTUSPZFE *O 'SBODF %VSJOH TMPX SJWFS TXFMMJOH JO -VOFM JO UIF JOGPSNBUJPO DIBJO arrived in one administration and was then transmitted to another in order to safely evacuate an old people’s home; *O 'SBODF GPS FYBNQMF JO 4PNNJÒSFT JO UIF TJSFOT XFSF OPU IFBSE CFDBVTF UIF IPVTFT XFSF UPP JTPMBUFE PS CFDBVTF

Box

the population did not understand the NFTTBHF PS EJE OPU CFMJFWF JU 5IF GPVSUI FYBNQMF DPODFSOT B CSVUBM swelling of nineteen metres in Collias JO 5IF NBZPS UPPL UIF EFDJTJPO UP evacuate the village because he was in DPOUBDU XJUI UIF NFUFPSPMPHJDBM DFOUSF but the gendarmes were obliged to force people to evacuate the village. NgĂ´ Văn Bᝯu *O NZ WJMMBHF SJWFS TXFMMJOH DBO MBTU OFBSMZ B XFFL 5IF UFMFQIPOF JT OPU FĂłDJFOU because batteries only have two or three days’ autonomy. Radio messages are certainly NPSF FĂłDJFOU XIFO EJòVTFE BU B DPNNVOBM level. [StĂŠphane Cartier] We are now going to use the same case TUVEJFT CVU JO B NPSF BCTUSBDU GSBNFXPSL by reflecting upon the collective sense and social aspects. This means understanding the collective sense that people give to UIFJS TJUVBUJPO VOEFSTUBOEJOH PSHBOJTBUJPOT UIBU BSF GBDFE XJUI JOUFS EFQFOEFODJFT the contradictions between practical and DPODFQUVBM UIJOHT BOE UIF BTQFDUT PO XIJDI social institutions are based.

11 Phases of Risk as Social Interdependency

)B[BSE Y WVMOFSBCJMJUZ Y FYQPTVSF LOPXMFEHF Y SVMFT Y PSHBOJTBUJPO 5ISFBU Y EBOHFS Y JOUFSEFQFOEFODZ QFSDFQUJPO Y QSPUFDUJPO Y DPNNJUNFOU .FNPSZ Y USBVNB FYQFSJFODF Y CFIBWJPVS DPNNVOJDBUJPO Y USBOTGPSNBUJPO Y GBJS FòPSU 6ODFSUBJOUZ Y WJUBM QSJPSJUZ Y EFWFMPQNFOU NBTUFSZ Y UPMFSBCMF TBDSJĂśDF Y SFTQPOTJCJMJUZ -BDL PG LOPXMFEHF Y TBODUVBSZ Y DPTU NJHSBUJPO Y DPEF Y JOWFTUNFOU Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

5IF FRVBUJPO JT DPNQPTFE PG UIF IB[BSE WVMOFSBCJMJUZ BOE B EFHSFF PG FYQPTVSF PG UIJOHT UP TBWF *O PSEFS UP EJNJOJTI UIF SJTL TPDJFUZ EFWFMPQT LOPXMFEHF SVMFT and organisation. We can think at a more practical and individual level to define these SVMFT "U UIJT TFDPOE MFWFM QPQVMBUJPOT BSF DPOGSPOUFE CZ UIFTF EBOHFST UISFBUT and interdependencies. This leads to UIF̓ QFSDFQUJPO PG UIF UISFBU UIF QSPUFDUJPO of vulnerable goods and commitment to action. -FU VT SFUVSO UP TPNF QSJODJQMFT GPS SFøFDUJPO The first principle is to consider the crisis as B OFFE GPS EFDJTJPO UIF TFDPOE QSJODJQMF PG BCTUSBDUJPO JT UP VTF UIF SJTL FRVBUJPO as a point of departure. The third level of abstraction concerns more the group and the mastery of the interdependency of its actions. 5IFSF JT BO FYQFSJFODF PG WVMOFSBCJMJUZ USBVNBUJTN BOE DPMMFDUJWF CFIBWJPVS *O PSEFS UP IBWF UIJT NFNPSZ UIFSF BSF DIBMMFOHFT PG DPNNVOJDBUJPO UIF USBOTGPSNBUJPO PG

Table

WVMOFSBCJMJUZ BOE UIF SFQBSUJUJPO PG FòPSUT among them. The fourth level of abstraction identifies a political choice and territorial organisation. 5IF IB[BSE JT BO VODFSUBJOUZ 'PS WVMOFSBCJMJUZ XF IBWF UP EFöOF WJUBM QSJPSJUJFT BOE UIJT brings with it challenges concerning the development of the territory. The challenge is HPJOH UP CF NBTUFSJOH VODFSUBJOUZ TBDSJöDJOH UIF MFBTU JNQPSUBOU QBSUT BOE EFöOJOH MFWFMT of responsibility for development. 5IF öGUI MFWFM JT FWFO NPSF BCTUSBDU UIBU PG DVMUVSBM QSPKFDUJPO BOE FWFOUVBM TDJFOUJöD SFTFBSDI 5IF IB[BSE SBJTFT CJH problems concerning a fundamental lack of LOPXMFEHF PG EFöOJOH TBODUVBSJFT BOE MPDBM BOE OBUJPOBM QSJPSJUJFT BOE PG EFWFMPQNFOU DPTUT *U GPSDFT VT UP SBJTF RVFTUJPOT BCPVU BMMPXJOH̓ NJHSBUJPO UP UIF UFSSJUPSZ DPEFT – often technical and regulatory – to be EFöOFE BOE UIF JOWFTUNFOUT UP CF NBEF GPS the community. 5IJT FYFSDJTF TFFT SBJO BT B UISFBU BOE OPU BT a resource.

10 Empirical Knowledge Rain / individual

Knowledge

Rules

Organisation

Hazard: storm

Observation, clouds

Survey the sky

Day observation

Vulnerability

Illness, wet body

Warm clothes

Take umbrella

Exposure

Me Child

Adapt raincoat, umbrella, car, covered courtyard

Carry umbrella

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

* QMBDFE UIF DPODFQUT JO B HSJE * BN HPJOH to concentrate on the challenges for someone who is making personal decisions in the case of rain. The individual comes up BHBJOTU QSPCMFNT PG LOPXMFEHF SVMFT BOE PSHBOJTBUJPO )JT ĂśSTU SFBDUJPO JT UP PCTFSWF UIF DMPVET )F DBO NBLF PCTFSWJOH UIF TLZ B

Table

SVMF BOE EP JU FWFSZ NPSOJOH 5IF JOEJWJEVBM vulnerability challenge is to not fall ill. The rule JT UP XFBS B DPBU BOE UIF PSHBOJTBUJPO XJMM be to always carry an umbrella. The rule is to protect oneself; the organisation is to decide who carries the umbrella.

11 Time Mastery Rain / individualÂ

Perception Â

Protection Â

CommitmentÂ

Threat Â

Weather forecastÂ

Weather reportÂ

Listening­ reading­others

Danger Â

ErrorÂ

ComparisonÂ

Interdependency  Media accessÂ

Multiplication of sourcesÂ

Regularity, memory  ,  Subscription Supply of batteriesÂ

Source: Author’s construction.

*G XF QSPDFFE UP B IJHIFS EFHSFF PG BCTUSBDUJPO UIFSF NBZ CF QSPCMFNT PG QFSDFQUJPO QSPUFDUJPO BOE DPNNJUNFOU UP IJT BDUJWJUJFT *O SFMBUJPO UP UIF UISFBU the individual decides to consult the XFBUIFS̓ GPSFDBTU )JT̓ QSPUFDUJPO JT UIF RVBMJUZ PG UIF GPSFDBTU BOE IJT PSHBOJTBUJPO JT UP MJTUFO UP JU UP JOUFSQSFU UIJT PVUTJEF information. The danger for the individual is a forecast error; he may thus compare several

GPSFDBTUT *O̓UFSNT PG DPNNJUNFOU NFNPSZ and statistical regularity is necessary. This poses problems of interdependency for the individual; he needs to have access to the NFEJB 5P NBLF DPNQBSJTPOT IF NVTU VTF EJòFSFOU NFEJB TPVSDFT *O UFSNT PG SFHVMBS DPNNJUNFOU IF NVTU TVCTDSJCF UP UIF media and must have a store of batteries for his radio.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Table

12 Formalised Experience

Source: Author’s construction.

The third degree of abstraction is linked to DPNNVOJDBUJPO UIF USBOTGPSNBUJPO BOE SFQBSUJUJPO PG B GBJS FòPSU CFUXFFO UIPTF concerned. Each stakeholder’s time and FOFSHZ JT MJNJUFE UIVT FBDI QFSTPO XBOUT to contribute his/her fair share of personal FòPSU GPS UIF TVSWFJMMBODF PG UIF EBOHFS BOE preparation. The individual is confronted CZ UIF NFNPSZ PG JOGPSNBUJPO BSSBZT CZ the success and failure of prognostics.

Table

This poses a problem of confidence in the outside source and may result in changes in the sources of information. From a commitment and interdependency point of WJFX XIBU JT BU TUBLF JT UIF EJTRVBMJĂśDBUJPO and bad reputation of certain stakeholders. *O JOEJWJEVBM DPNNJUNFOU UFSNT JU NBZ MFBE UP UIF DSFBUJPO PG B NFUFPSPMPHJDBM JOTUJUVUF TVDI BT :FSTJO T

13 Preparation

Rain / individual Â

Mastery Â

Tolerable sacrificeÂ

Responsibility Â

Uncertainty Â

Multiply opinionsÂ

Getting wet  Â

Bad weather  Reliability of source of infoÂ

Vital priority Â

Probability  calculation  Â

Going to work Staying dryÂ

Source of scientific informationÂ

ArrangementÂ

Don’t go out,  take umbrella, permanent connection to mediaÂ

Buying a newspaper, and using it as a hatÂ

News subscription Â

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

*O SFMBUJPO UP UIF VODFSUBJOUZ PG SBJO UIF JOEJWJEVBM TFFLT UP NVMUJQMZ PQJOJPOT *G * HP PVU PO NZ CJLF JO UIF NPSOJOH HFUUJOH soaked is a tolerable sacrifice; responsibility is the dependability of the meteorological source. The vital priorities in relation to the stakes are to have the correct calculation of the probability in relation to the uncertainty; JO SFMBUJPO UP UIF TBDSJöDFT UIJT NFBOT HPJOH UP XPSL PS SFNBJOJOH ESZ "T GPS BEKVTUNFOUT

Table

UIF JOEJWJEVBM NBZ DIPPTF UP OPU HP PVU take an umbrella or remain permanently connected to the weather forecasts and *OUFSOFU 5P SFEVDF WVMOFSBCJMJUZ IF NBZ also buy a newspaper to have the weather forecast (and use it as a hat) or in commitment UFSNT TVCTDSJCF UP B OFXT DIBOOFM o UIF DBTF of many farmers wishing to know when to begin the harvest.

14 Transformation

Source: Author’s construction.

0O B MBTU MFWFM PG BCTUSBDUJPO PG DPNNVOJUZ QSPKFDUJPO XF XJMM IBWF B öSTU DPMVNO UP choose between remaining in the region and migrating. A second column defines the technical codes and investments for the community. The individual may decide UP̓ DIBOHF SFHJPO TVCTDSJCF UP XFBUIFS GPSFDBTUT BOE JOWFTU JO UIF NBOVGBDUVSJOH PG̓ VNCSFMMBT *O PSEFS UP QSPUFDU XIBU JT JNQPSUBOU UP IJN IF NBZ EFDJEF UP XPSL BU IPNF PS TMFFQ JO UIF PóDF )F seeks autonomy in his decision-making. An investment would be to remain indoors o̓CVU UIF QSJODJQBM UISFBU JT KPC MPTT 0OF XBZ PG JOWFTUJOH XIJDI IBT B DPTU JT UIF QSJDF PG

B TVCTDSJQUJPO *O PSEFS UP SFEVDF QSPCMFNT another investment is to abandon the bicycle and buy a car to avoid the rain and get information from the radio.

The trainees are put into pairs to work on this model in relation to the flood risk examined in the three case studies: for a man, a field, a dwelling. They choose themselves which point of view to adopt. The trainees must prepare a summary file by case study group. The trainers underline the methodological dimension of the exercise.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Day 4, Thursday 25th Jean-Philippe Fontenelle proposes a presentation sheet for Saturday’s presentation of reports: 1/ The general question and sub-questions to be dealt with by the workshop (Not more than a Âź of the report). 2/ The work methods and how the task was approached to deal with the question (Not more than a Âź of the report). 3/ The results noted, the difficulties, obstacles, range of players, the proposals for public action (institutional, cultural, financial, participatory and research approaches) (half the report). [StĂŠphane Cartier] Prevention of natural risks necessitates the UBLJOH JOUP BDDPVOU PG TPDJBM GBDUPST UPXO planning and territorial development. The reduction of vulnerability demands that we consider spatial and temporal solidarities in the face of physical interdependencies. 5IF ĂśSTU PCKFDUJWF JT UP SFEVDF UIF QPQVMBUJPO T WVMOFSBCJMJUZ 0OF PG UIF NFBOT JT UP FYBNJOF the coordination between those involved in town planning and territorial development. 5P EP UIJT XF IBWF UP VTF SFMJBCMF EJBHOPTUJDT DSJUFSJB DPODFSOJOH UFDIOJDBM FĂłDJFODZ BOE common targets for long-term safety. This collective adaptation also means adapting town planning and development to the dynamics of the territory and human activities that are sources of risk transformation. The development of a EZLF GPS FYBNQMF DPODSFUJTFT DPMMFDUJWF solidarity in a situation of interdependency. Risk situations are an interface between professional activities and a territory. This

SBJTFT OFX RVFTUJPOT BCPVU UIF DPOUSPM PG technical rules in relation to activities but also rules of usage for territorial resources. 6SCBO NJMJFVT BSF QBSUJDVMBSMZ FYQPTFE UP great tensions for decisions concerning UIF SFEVDUJPO PG WVMOFSBCJMJUZ JT JU CFUUFS UP concentrate the population in a protected [POF PS EJTQFSTF WVMOFSBCJMJUZ UP MJNJU UIF OVNCFS PG JOEJWJEVBMT BòFDUFE 0O B XPSMEXJEF TDBMF IJHI VSCBO DPODFOUSBUJPO increases vulnerability. This vulnerability may CF UIBU PG QPQVMBUJPOT BDUJWJUJFT TFSWJDFT PS administrations. 5IJT SBJTFT UIF RVFTUJPO PG UIF EJòFSFODF JO management depending on local situations and territories. Physical phenomena provoke interdependencies between activities that are not a priori connected. The mastery of danger is delicate as its cause may be natural PS̓ IVNBO UIJT NBZ MFBE UP HSFBU TPDJBM control. -FU VT UBLF UIF FYBNQMF PG B 'SFODI SFHJPO /PSNBOEZ XIJDI JT TVCKFDU UP QSPCMFNT PG FSPTJPO øPPEJOH BOE XBUFS QPMMVUJPO "U ĂśSTU BHSPOPNJTUT UIPVHIU JU IBE BHSBSJBO TPVSDFT but town planning is at the heart of debates. 5IJT SFHJPO IBT FYQFSJFODFE B WFSJUBCMF MPTT PG NFNPSZ BCPVU øPPEJOH JO PG UIF field superficies was grass (which protects UIF TPJM DPNQBSFE UP POMZ JO 5IF DSJTJT DPODFSOT BMM UIF UFSSJUPSZ BT VSCBO development and infrastructures do not take care of hydrological functioning in the dry valleys without rivers. The population realises that flooding is not linked to a natural crisis but an agricultural one. Agronomists thought that farmers could easily discuss among themselves and organise and coordinate themselves. As a TPDJPMPHJTU * DBSSJFE PVU B NPOPHSBQI PO

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

BMM UIF TJYUZ PS TP GBSNFST XPSLJOH UIF QMPUT PG BCPVU IFDUBSFT PG B NVOJDJQBMJUZ JO /PSNBOEZ 5IF SFTVMUT TIPX UIBU GFXFS UIBO IBMG PG GBSNFST MJWF JO UIF WJMMBHF BOE UIBU GPS PG UIFN UIF BHSJDVMUVSBM BDUJWJUZ JT UIFJS TFDPOE BDUJWJUZ )PXFWFS UFDIOJDBM EJTDPVSTF BHBJOTU FSPTJPO JT VOJRVFMZ BJNFE at professional farmers living in the village BOE DPNQMFUFMZ JHOPSFT UIF SFTU UIPTF XIP sometimes live tens of kilometres away remain strangers to the flooding problems JO UIFTF WJMMBHFT "OE ZFU UIF JOEJWJEVBMT GPS whom the agricultural activity is a secondary POF XPSLFST UIF SFUJSFE IBWF B NBKPS SPMF as they possess the small grassy plots with IFEHFT XIJDI BDU BT CVòFST BHBJOTU WJMMBHF flooding. 8IBU JT NPSF UIF TUVEZ TIPXT UIBU UIF population does not work together for UIF PSHBOJTBUJPO PG UIF UFSSJUPSZ 2VJUF UIF DPOUSBSZ UIFSF JT B MPU PG BHSBSJBO JOEJWJEVBMJTN 'PS BU MFBTU UXP DFOUVSJFT they have been independent entrepreneurs. The model is one of renting land and labour to big landowners and workers to produce GPS NBSLFUT 3PVFO 1BSJT BOE -POEPO 'PS̓ UIJT SFHJPO DPNNVOJUZ TZTUFNT IBWF OPU FYJTUFE GPS TFWFSBM DFOUVSJFT $POTUSBJOUT are managed individually. The discourse of BHSPOPNJTUT iYou must all manage the river basin togetherw̓ IBT MJUUMF NFBOJOH BT UIF division of roles and responsibilities does not function. The results allow us to define three types of TPMJEBSJUZ JO SFMBUJPO UP SVOPò 4PMJEBSJUZ CZ SJWFS CBTJO BHSPOPNJTUT IPQF t -PDBM PO UIF TDBMF PG UIF QSPCMFNT t #FUXFFO JOUFS EFQFOEFOUT

t (SBEVBM TPMJEBSJUZ MPX JOEJWJEVBM SJTL BWFSBHF SJTL GPS MPDBM DPNNVOJUJFT BOE FYDFQUJPOBM SJTL GPS OBUJPOBM TPMJEBSJUZ 4PMJEBSJUZ CZ UIF XFMGBSF TUBUF FYQFDUBUJPO PG øPPEJOH WJDUJNT t &YDFQUJPOBM TPMJEBSJUZ $BU /BU TZTUFN UIF state supplies the financial and technical NFBOT FYQFSUJTF FUD t /BUJPOBM CFMPOHJOH t %FMFHBUJPO PG QPXFS UP QPMJUJDJBOT BENJOJTUSBUJPOT FYQFSUT t 3FQSFTFOUBUJWF EFNPDSBDZ XIFSF UIF IPMEJOH PG NVMUJQMF PóDFT NPCJMJTFT BJE - Solidarity by contracts (strategy/wish of QVCMJD QPXFST t 5FDIOJRVFT BDBEFNJDT FYQFSUT FOHJOFFST companies); t 'JOBODJBM BOE MFHBM USBOTGFS PG responsibilities; t 5SBOTGFS SFMBUJPOTIJQT PG GPSDF BOE coercion; t 1PMJUJDBM USBOTGFS QSPQPTBM TDIPMBST t $PNQFUJUJPO CFUXFFO SJTL NBOBHFST 0UIFS FYBNQMFT PG JOUFSEFQFOEFODZ NJHIU CF DPOTJEFSFE 5IF TJNQMFTU FYBNQMF JT UIF EJóDVMUZ JO reducing the number of cockroaches in a CVJMEJOH JG NBOBHFNFOU JT JOEJWJEVBM JU XJMM OPU CF FóDJFOU 5IF USFBUNFOU NVTU CF global; - Forest fires concern the whole of a forest region and all activities even if plots are JOEJWJEVBM DMFBSJOH SVMFT BSF DPMMFDUJWF GPS the whole of the forest; - Seismic wave propagation. We must have an idea of the professional activities FYFSDJTFE BOE PG UIF UFSSJUPSZ DPODFSOFE UP DSFBUF [POJOHT 5IF öSTU TPMVUJPO JT UIF reduction of vulnerability by construction regulations adapted to local geology.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

&WFO UIPVHI XF BSF TPDJPMPHJTUT DPNQMFY physical systems make it necessary to understand all this. The identification of interdependencies between activities is DSVDJBM 8F NVTU USZ UP VOEFSTUBOE UIF øPXT propagations and disseminations that are PGUFO JOWJTJCMF JO UIF MPOH UFSN *U JT OFDFTTBSZ to understand how people name groups of things. We also have to identify threshold FòFDUT QBSUJDVMBSMZ JO SFMBUJPO UP MPX EPTFT PG QPMMVUJPO *O BO FDPMPHJDBM BOE TPDJBM TZTUFN many factors are interdependent and the TZTUFN SFBDUT EJòFSFOUMZ JO SFMBUJPO UP FBDI element.

Photo

*O SFBMJUZ JOUFSEFQFOEFOU TUBLFIPMEFST IBWF IFUFSPHFOFPVT FYDIBOHFT 'PS FYBNQMF GPS SJWFS CBTJO QSPCMFNT GPS NBOZ ZFBST UIFSF were meetings to emphasise the necessity for solidarity between a downstream and BO VQTUSFBN WJMMBHF #VU UIFSF XBT BO institutional asymmetry between the two WJMMBHFT UIF UFDIOJDJBOT EJE OPU VOEFSTUBOE that this was impossible because the villages XFSF JO DPOøJDU PWFS UFO KPCT JO B GBDUPSZ UIBU had been taken from one village by the other. *O UIF QSFTFOU TJUVBUJPO PG 'SFODI TPDJFUZ XIFSF FNQMPZNFOU JT B QSJPSJUZ UFO KPCT BSF more important than resolving a flooding problem.

25 Vallorcine Church. Protection of a Church in Vallorcine (Haute-Savoie, Alpes) Against Avalanches

Photo credits: Michel CARA.

-FU VT UBLF B MPPL BU BWBMBODIFT XIJDI BSF BMTP̓ HPPE FYBNQMFT JG XF BSF JOUFSFTUFE JO QSVEFOU QSBDUJDF QSFWFOUJPO BOE EFWFMPQNFOU QSPUFDUJPO PG CVJMEJOHT PS JOEFFE QSFDBVUJPO )FSF ZPV DBO TFF B DIVSDI BU 7BMMPSDJOF that is protected by an anti-avalanche wall – protective construction;

*G XF IBE CFFO JO B QSFDBVUJPOBSZ NPEF the wall would not have been built because of potential danger; - The precautionary principle would be to choose the seasons the church could open without the danger of an avalanche; - Prevention would entail planting trees in the avalanche corridor to limit the flow of snow.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

"OPUIFS FYBNQMF PG UIF iQSFDBVUJPOBSZ QSJODJQMFw JT UP OPU VTF (.0 TFFET JO 'SBODF BU UIF NPNFOU BT XF EP OPU ZFU LOPX IPX UP DPOUSPM UIFJS FòFDUT 5IFTF GPVS QSJODJQMFT BSF FWFO NPSF EJóDVMU UP NBOBHF PO B MBSHF TDBMF TVDI BT JO the case of climate change. There are two EJòFSFOU TPMVUJPOT UP DMJNBUF DIBOHF JO Europe and the United States. Europe wishes UP BDU QSFWFOUJWFMZ CZ SFEVDJOH UIF GBDUPST PG DBSCPO FNJTTJPOT UIBOLT UP DBSCPO RVPUBT *O UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT DFSUBJO QFPQMF XBOU UP act protectively by changing climatic cycles CZ QVUUJOH JSPO JO UIF PDFBOT *O UIF OBNF PG UIF QSFDBVUJPOBSZ QSJODJQMF &VSPQF JT against this because we do not yet know the FOWJSPONFOUBM DPOTFRVFODFT

*O PSEFS UP EFWFMPQ XJOUFS TQPSUT SFTPSUT B national association of snow and avalanches was created with the aim of defining common rules through the aggregation of sectoral QPMJDJFT UPXO QMBOOJOH SPBE NBJOUFOBODF NPVOUBJO TQPSU GPSFTUSZ Problems are often linked to the intensive FYQMPJUBUJPO PG OBUVSBM SFTPVSDFT XIJDI is a factor of transformation in the system of environmental and human interdependencies. Prevention must raise RVFTUJPOT BCPVU UIF BDDPVOUBCJMJUZ PG activities; territorial interest must come before individual interests. Phấm Thu Hưƥng %P DPOøJDUT PG JOUFSFTU FNFSHF

[Yves Le Bars]

[StĂŠphane Cartier]

The precautionary principle is applied when XF IBWF OPU NBTUFSFE BMM PG UIF QIFOPNFOB XIFO XF EP OPU LOPX UIF DPOTFRVFODFT of an action. This principle is applied a lot in DIFNJTUSZ CFGPSF B OFX NFEJDJOF DBO CF marketed.

We will see this afternoon in the role play that social engineering activity is more determining than the engineering of technical solutions. There are multiple conflicts that particularly concern the hidden aspects of the charge transfers between activities included in the risks. For FYBNQMF DPODFSOJOH SVOPò JO /PSNBOEZ encouraging the development of the intensive growing of potatoes means accepting a lot of dangerous mud on roads. )PXFWFS BT UIF JOIBCJUBOUT EFNBOE UIF SJHIU UP USBWFM RVJDLMZ UP XPSL JO UIF DJUZ XJUIPVU EBOHFS PO UIF SPBE MPDBM DPNNVOJUJFT BDDFQU to pay for the cleaning of roads without making local potato producers foot the bill. The risks hide real conflicts of power between OFJHICPVST vis-à -vis others (particularly when the costs are diluted in an anonymous sector MJLF UIF TUBUF JOTVSBODF PS TPDJBM TFDVSJUZ PS CFUXFFO HFOFSBUJPOT GPS FYBNQMF JG UIF construction of schools is not para-seismic).

Prevention boils down to arming oneself against something that we know could happen. [StĂŠphane Cartier] "SF OBUVSBM SJTLT UIF FòFDUT PG OBUVSBM PS IVNBO XIJNT Avalanches demonstrate an accumulation of QIZTJDBM DPOTUSBJOUT o XFBUIFS TMPQF TOPX temperature – but also human factors – forest NBJOUFOBODF QPQVMBUJPO BDUJWJUZ CZ SFTJEFOUT BOE OPO SFTJEFOUT SPBE JOGSBTUSVDUVSFT TLJFST CFIBWJPVS FUD

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

We can establish four principal methods of SFHVMBUJOH IJEEFO DPOøJDUT

and community management often defines municipal regulations.

- Territorial regulation deals with the confrontation between upstream / downstream through rules of territorial development; $JWJD SFHVMBUJPO EFBMT XJUI UIF FYUFSOBMJUJFT of all forms of pollution through rules and compensations and sanctions; - Sectoral regulation deals with the relationship between professionals BOE DMJFOUT IJEEFO EFGFDUT GSBVE CZ DPNQFUFODF SFRVJSFNFOUT HVBSBOUFFT SFQBJST DPNQFOTBUJPO TBODUJPOT BOE QSPGFTTJPOBM FYDMVTJPOT - Customary regulation manages intergenerational reports through heritage SFRVJSFNFOUT

The defining of rules may also take place within a professional sector through DIBSUFST QSPGFTTJPOBM DPEFT DFSUJöDBUJPOT etc. Responsibilities in case of disaster also give rise to a legal management of risk – the case of Europe – with a repartition PG DPNQFUFODFT SFTQPOTJCJMJUJFT BOE JO DPVOUFSQBSU DPNQFOTBUJPO BOE öOFT

Phạm Thu Hương "SF UIFTF SFHVMBUJPOT CBTFE PO MBX [Stéphane Cartier] *G * XBOU UP CVJME B WJMMB UPEBZ TIPVME * TQFOE my money on decoration or indeed spend JU PO B QBSB TFJTNJD FOHJOFFS JG UIF [POF JT BU SJTL 'PS EFDBEFT UIFSF NJHIU OPU CF BO FBSUIRVBLF CVU POF EBZ NZ HSBOEDIJMESFO will certainly be confronted by the problem. 5IFSF BSF DVTUPNT PG HPPE OFJHICPVSMJOFTT but also great constraints within the community that may also take on cultural and religious aspects. 'PS DFSUBJO .FMBOFTJBO USJCFT JO /FX $BMFEPOJB UIF UZQF PG WFHFUBUJPO JOEJDBUFT UIF QPTTJCMF VTFT PS OPU PG UIF MBOE 5IFSF BSF UBCPP BOE WVMOFSBCMF QMBDFT *O -FCBOPO UIF SFMJHJPVT DPNNVOJUJFT .VTMJN BOE $ISJTUJBO PXO B MPU PG MBOE XIJDI JT PGUFO the last protected space in the cities. Village

'JOBMMZ UIF KVEHF BOE UIF XIPMF PG TPDJFUZ identify three fundamental principles in SFMBUJPO UP SJTL QSVEFODF PG B HPPE GBNJMZ GBUIFS PXOFS SFTQFDU PG UIF TUBUF PG UIF BSU QSPGFTTJPOBM BOE SFTQFDU PG HPPE OFJHICPVSMJOFTT JOTUJUVUJPO #VU UIJT SBJTFT RVFTUJPOT XIBU MFWFM PG TFDVSJUZ OFFET UP CF BUUBJOFE 8IP BDDFQUT UP UBLF responsibility for and finance the protection PG PUIFST 8IP BDDFQUT XIBU SFTQPOTJCJMJUZ Solidarity is spread out in national and global DPOUSJCVUJPOT XIJDI SJET TUBLFIPMEFST PG their responsibilities in relation to their prudence. Solidarity is not a spontaneous SFMBUJPOTIJQ CVU B TZTUFN PG FYDIBOHFT and reciprocity that varies according to the EFNPHSBQIJD TJ[F PG UIF HSPVQT DPODFSOFE What is important is to propose a range of TPMVUJPOT EFöOF QSJPSJUJFT JO SJTL NBOBHFNFOU BOE BDUJWJUZ DSJUFSJB VTJOH TJNQMF NFUIPET that may be routinely applied and install confidence between local leaders and the population. [Yves Le Bars] )PX DBO XF CVJME JOUFHSBUFE XJOUFS TQPSUT SFTPSUT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Diagram 19 Interconnection between infrastructures

Source: Author’s construction.

This diagram shows the links between TFSWJDFT XBUFS FMFDUSJDJUZ FMFDUSJDJUZ UFMFDPNNVOJDBUJPOT GPPE USBOTQPSU FUD Another important infrastructure is finance. "U B EJTUBODF GSPN BMM UIJT UIFSF JT HPWFSONFOU regulation to “greaseâ€? the system. A central RVFTUJPO JT UP LOPX IPX UIF TZTUFN XJMM SFTJTU B USFNPS 8F SFBMJTFE GPS FYBNQMF UIBU JO 1BSJT B MPU PG TZTUFNT QBSUJDVMBSMZ USBOTQPSU EJE OPU̓SFTJTU FYDFQUJPOBM øPPEJOH The government designated someone to DPPSEJOBUF BMM QSFWFOUJPO TP UIBU USBOTQPSU systems would remain operational in the case of a rise of waters. #FIJOE FBDI BDUJWJUZ UIFSF NBZ CF B TQFDJBMJTFE QMBZFS UIF FMFDUSJDJUZ DPNQBOZ GPS FYBNQMF 5IJT UZQF PG EJBHSBN JT DPODFJWFE TP UIBU FBDI QMBZFS JO FBDI BDUJWJUZ JT XFMM BXBSF of interdependency.

[StÊphane Cartier] 5XFOUZ PS TP ZFBST BHP JO UIF FWFOU PG EJTBTUFS UFOUT SJDF BOE CMBOLFUT XFSF TFOU /PXBEBZT JU JT PGUFO UIF DBTF UIBU UIF BDUPST have the resources but communications are EJTSVQUFE FJUIFS UIFSF JT OP NPSF DPOÜEFODF or they want a guarantee that they will be remunerated. [Yves Le Bars] 8IFO JU T B RVFTUJPO PG SFEVDJOH WVMOFSBCJMJUZ UP LOPXO SJTLT QSFWFOUJPO NFBTVSFT BSF adapted in order to prevent the risk from BòFDUJOH UIF QPQVMBUJPO UIF TUBLFIPMEFST those who own the goods. 'PS UIF SJTLT UIBU XF EPO U SFBMMZ LOPX BOE XIJDI SFNBJO VOFYQFDUFE XF TQFBL BCPVU QSFDBVUJPO 8F IBWF UP EP FYFSDJTFT BOE MFBSO GSPN POF T PXO FYQFSJFODF BOE UIBU PG

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

others; there is a big need for research work into the unknown. 3FTJMJFODF *OGSBTUSVDUVSFT NVTU CF NBJOUBJOFE 5IF UFSN iFRVJUBCMFw VOEFSMJOFT the contradictions and the choices to be NBEF CFUXFFO UFOTJPOT UIBU NBZ FYJTU PWFS UJNF JODMVEJOH CFUXFFO HFOFSBUJPOT

Photo

[Yves Le Bars] -FU VT SFUVSO UP øPPEJOH XJUI B QSFTFOUBUJPO of the “floodabilityâ€? method that tries to help communities make decisions about their flood prevention.

26 Recent Torrential Flooding in the Sichuan Region (China)

Sources: Photo archive.

0O th +VMZ 4JDIVBO XBT IJU CZ UPSSFOUJBM rain. )PX DBO XF DIBSBDUFSJTF UIF IB[BSE PG øPPEJOH Dưƥng Công Hưng The phenomenon might be characterised CZ XBUFS MFWFMT MPDBMJTFE øPPEJOH BOE UIF disruption of the transport system and power outages.

QuĂĄch Tháť‹ Thu CĂşc *U T B QSPCMFN PG TUSPOH øPXT PG XBUFS UIBU are unforeseen. [Yves Le Bars] This photograph shows that it is not the IFJHIU PG XBUFS UIBU DSFBUFT UIF QSPCMFNT but its speed. Flooding can be characterised CZ JUT GSFRVFODZ %PFT JU IBQQFO FWFSZ ZFBS PS FWFSZ UIPVTBOE 8F BSF JO B TJUVBUJPO XIFSF JUT TQFFE JT MPX XIJDI JT PGUFO UIF DBTF JO the situation that you will be faced with.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

5IF iøPPEBCJMJUZw NFUIPE GPS FBDI QPJOU PG the territory a period for the return of the IB[BSE JT DBMDVMBUFE BOE JU JT DPOTJEFSFE that flooding corresponds to water levels of NPSF UIBO DN 8F DBO OPUF UIF QFSJPE PG SFUVSO OPUFE 5"- o QFSJPE PG SFUVSO “Tâ€? of the IB[BSE 5IJT WBMVF JT SFUBJOFE BT UIF NFBTVSF PG UIF IB[BSE UIF ĂśSTU DPNQPOFOU JO UIF SJTL PG øPPEJOH " NBQ JT ESBXO PWFS B POF ZFBS a ten-year and hundred-year period using IZESPMPHJDBM DBMDVMBUJPOT 5"- JT UIVT VTFE BT B NFBTVSF PG UIF IB[BSE

Photo

7VMOFSBCJMJUZ JT OFYU EFĂśOFE BT B QFSJPE PG return associated with a desired level of protection; this indicates the rareness of the event below which flooding is considered BT JOBDDFQUBCMF *U JT EFTJHOBUFE 501 BT UIF period of return “Tâ€? PG UIF PCKFDUJWF QSPUFDUJPO 5IJT IB[BSE JT DPNQBSFE XJUI WVMOFSBCJMJUZ we observe the period of time during which øPPEJOH JT BDDFQUFE o JG * IBWF QMBOUFE QPQMBS USFFT * BDDFQU B SFUVSO PG øPPEJOH GPS B GFX days a year; a cellar flooding every ten years; a HSPVOE øPPS POF FWFSZ ZFBST FUD

27 Transport Paralysis in Wuhan in the Hubei Province (China) (7th July 2013)

Sources: Photo archive.

[StĂŠphane Cartier]

[Yves Le Bars]

0O UIF (SFOPCMF DBNQVT UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ XBT CVJMU PO TUJMUT CVU OP øPPEJOH IBT PDDVSSFE JO ZFBST UIBOLT UP DPOUBJONFOU )PXFWFS computer material and the library are today installed on the ground floor and would not be able to be taken upstairs if flooding was to occur in one night.

'PS NPUPSXBZT øPPEJOH JT UPMFSBUFE FWFSZ ZFBST GPS TFDPOEBSZ SPBET FWFSZ ZFBST This is not a government decree but the result of negotiations within the community. 5IF XPSL PG BO FOHJOFFS B TUBUJTUJDJBO BOE B hydrological engineer addresses the issue of UIF GVODUJPOJOH PG UIF BDUJWJUJFT UIF UFOTJPOT and arbitrations that take place.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Diagram 20 Example of Two Prevention Strategies Widening of section under bridge and upriver containmentÂ

Left bank containment  Maintaining in initial sectionÂ

Current state     Flood                 Solution 1          Solution 2 Source: LANG, CHASTAN and GRELOT (2009).

We see here the normal state of the river. *O̓UIF FWFOU PG øPPEJOH UIF WJMMBHF JT VOEFS XBUFS 8IBU TPMVUJPO DBO XF DPNF VQ XJUI Phấm Trung Hiáşżu We could build retention ponds. [Yves Le Bars] 5IFSF BSF TPNF BMSFBEZ CVU XF DPVME CVJME others on higher ground; to do this it would be necessary to find a population willing to be flooded to build a retention pond. Another solution imagined by engineers would be UP CVJME EZLFT BOE XJEFO UIF CSJEHF *G UIF CSJEHF JT XJEFOFE XBUFS SFUFOUJPO DBO CF BWPJEFE BT UIFSF XJMM CF B HSFBUFS SJWFS øPX #VU UIJT TPMVUJPO XJMM IBWF DPOTFRVFODFT EPXOTUSFBN BOE NJHIU DBVTF øPPEJOH BOE the destruction of the bridge in the lower village. A solution consists in building a dyke

PO POF TJEF UP DSFBUF B øPPE FYUFOTJPO QPOE upstream of the bridge. This means that we must not build the fire station there. We are JO B TJUVBUJPO PG B EJĂłDVMU BSCJUSBUJPO CFUXFFO two villages; all the more so as there is no legitimate and solid political authority at this TDBMF *O UIF WJMMBHF UIF NBZPS JT MFHJUJNBUF *G̓OPCPEZ JOGPSNT IJN UIBU UIF WJMMBHF JT QBSU PG B VOJĂśFE HSPVQ UIFO IF NBZ DIPPTF UIF ĂśSTU TPMVUJPO XIJDI PGUFO IBQQFOT NgĂ´ Văn Bᝯu *G B EZLF JT CVJMU VQTUSFBN UP SFUBJO XBUFS GPS BHSJDVMUVSBM QSPEVDUJPO UIF EPXOTUSFBN village will not have access to water for its DSPQT UIJT XJMM DSFBUF DPOøJDUT PG JOUFSFTU [Yves Le Bars] )FODF UIF JNQPSUBODF PG IBWJOH MFHJUJNBUF authorities to deal with the problem on

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

UIF SJHIU TDBMF *U JT PGUFO UIF DBTF UIBU environmental and risk issues have no QSFEFĂśOFE QPMJUJDBM BVUIPSJUZ *U T VQ UP TPDJFUZ UIF HPWFSONFOU BOE QPMJUJDJBOT UP organise the authority that will allow us to carry out the legitimate arbitrations. This NJHIU SFTVMU JO QSPCMFNT XJUIJO B QSPWJODF but also inter-state ones – the case of the Mekong Commission (where China is only an observer). -FU VT UBLF UIF FYBNQMF PG UIF DJUZ PG (SFOPCMF a veritable linchpin of the Alps. The dyke XBT CVJMU JO UIF NJEEMF BHFT *O UIF IPVTFT PO UIF SJWFSCBOL QFPQMF FOUFS UIFJS IPVTFT PO UIF HSPVOE øPPS PO POF TJEF BOE PO the first floor on the dyke side. The dyke has been heightened by three metres. On each TJEF PG UIF SJWFS UIFSF JT B LN NPVOUBJO SBOHF 6QTUSFBN UIFSF BSF UXP MBSHF QMBJOT XJUI B GFX WJMMBHFT *G XF EP OPUIJOH PS JG XF DPOUJOVF UP CVJME EZLFT VQTUSFBN JU XJMM accelerate swelling. The debate about what to do is a political one. A hydrological study has been presented to politicians to define or DSFBUF FYQBOEJOH øPPE [POFT 5IF QSPCMFN JT finding places where people will accept the spreading out of the river to reduce its flow XIFO JU QBTTFT UISPVHI (SFOPCMF [StĂŠphane Cartier] :FBST PG FYQFSUJTF BOE DPVOUFS FYQFSUJTF BSF PGUFO OFDFTTBSZ UP ĂśY UPXO QMBOOJOH in relation to flooding. The administrative court is solicited to resolve conflicts because

landowners lose the potential value of UIFJS QMPUT *O UIF DBTF PG BDUVBM EJTBTUFST responsibility conflicts go before the criminal courts in order to establish whether the BENJOJTUSBUJPO UIF NVOJDJQBMJUZ PS UIF owners made bad decisions. [Yves Le Bars] * XPVME MJLF UP EJTDVTT UIF NFBOJOH PG potential land value that everyone gives UP IJT PS IFS MBOE )FSF JT B HPPE FYBNQMF of what results from a “social constructionâ€?. 5IF̓ 3IJOF TFQBSBUFT 'SBODF GSPN (FSNBOZ and each country has its own regulations. 4JNJMBS QMPUT IPXFWFS XJMM IBWF WFSZ EJòFSFOU QSJDFT BT (FSNBO QPMJDZ JT B MPU TUSJDUFS DPODFSOJOH VSCBO [POJOH 5P DPODMVEF XIBU are the strong points of the “floodability NFUIPE *U BMMPXT VT UP - Reason on a river basin scale – upstreamEPXOTUSFBN LOPDL PO FòFDUT TQBUJBM optimisation; - Consider surpassing the reference swelling for protection; - Seek diversified prevention solutions that are adapted to the challenges. 0O UIF PUIFS IBOE *UT JNQMFNFOUBUJPO IBT CFFO CBTFE VQPO a formalism of vulnerability based on a NBYJNVN BDDFQUBCMF IB[BSE DBMDVMBUFE from a period of return; 'SPN FYQFSJFODF UIJT IZESPMPHJDBM WBSJBCMF is not easily grasped by the public at large.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Box

12 Role-Play Scenario

An implementation of dialogues and conflicts between stakeholders is proposed to the workshop in the form of a role-play. “A Lao village situated on the riverbank, in the district of Champassak, in a zone that is regularly flooded. This village is the object of two projects. The first concerns the development of the market gardening sector on the raised banks along the river. The second that has been negotiated by the province with an investor concerns the creation of a tourist complex. The head of the commune chairs a meeting aiming to listen to the different points of view of the stakeholders and specify the possible scenario(s). Attending the meeting: - The head of commune who chairs the meeting: his objective is to favour the implementation of the two projects; - An official from the provincial tourist board: his objective is to support the project for the tourist complex, to which the province has committed itself; - The secretary of the commune’s party: his objective is to strike a balance between economic development and social equity; - An engineer from the provincial hydrological services: his objective is to inform stakeholders of the region’s history in terms of flooding and the precautions to be taken in terms of construction (buildings, roads, etc.); - An engineer from the transport services: his objective is to choose the best route and road profile to connect the complex to the main road situated on the highest lying land; - Market gardeners: their objective is to develop their activity and avoid the installation of the complex on the high lying alluvial soils used for growing vegetables; - Rice growers: their objective is to insure access to the river water on the low-lying land that they farm (fear that the road will block water flows).â€? The role-play will take place in Vietnamese, with a halt after each argument for translation. The groups prepare their arguments, which will be exposed by a speaker. Source: Author’s construction.

[Yves Le Bars] * XPVME MJLF UP UIBOL ZPV GPS ZPVS DPNNJUNFOU̓ UP UIJT SPMF QMBZ 5IJT FYFSDJTF is pedagogical because it leads you to place yourselves in the role of the stakeholders. Communicating implies above all understanding others. 'JOBMMZ ZPV IBWF BSSJWFE BU B EFWFMPQNFOU QSPKFDU UIBU JODMVEFT BMM UIF OFDFTTBSZ

FMFNFOUT JOWFTUNFOUT USBJOJOH USBEF XBTUF̓ NBOBHFNFOU JNQSPWFNFOU JO QVNQJOH FUD :PV BMTP SBJTFE UIF QSPCMFN PG flooding risks. :PV QFSIBQT TIPVME IBWF FYBNJOFE UIF SFMBUJPOTIJQ CFUXFFO UPVSJTN BOE øPPEJOH because that might increase pressure for an early warning. The fact that the meeting UPPL QMBDF JT WFSZ JNQPSUBOU JO NBOZ DBTFT there is no meeting between stakeholders

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

XIFSF UIFZ DBO PQFOMZ BSHVF UIFJS DBTFT *U is often the case that stakeholders must pull together so that this type of meeting can UBLF QMBDF :PV BSSJWFE BU B DPODMVTJPO XIFSF stakeholders must go beyond their own limits JO PSEFS UP FTUBCMJTI B EFWFMPQNFOU QSPKFDU )PX EJE ZPV GFFM BCPVU UIBU Trần PhĆ°ĆĄng NguyĂŞn &WFSZCPEZ T IBQQZ CFDBVTF UIF QSPKFDU IBT been implemented; everybody’s interests have been taken into account. HoĂ ng Tháť‹ QuyĂŞn The farmers set down very general DPOEJUJPOT ̓ CFOFĂśU GSPN USBJOJOH BOE ĂśOE B KPC [Yves Le Bars] The agreement could have been more specific and demanded more commitment BCPVU DFSUBJO QPJOUT )PXFWFS XF NVTU bear in mind that it is the first meeting in the commune and it is the beginning of a series of chapters. The commune could decide to DSFBUF EJòFSFOU DPNNJTTJPOT UP TQFDJGZ BOE NPOJUPS UIF JNQMFNFOUBUJPO PG UIF QSPKFDU DPNNJTTJPOT PO GBSNFS USBJOJOH PO UIF QVNQJOH TZTUFN GPS UIF NBSLFU HBSEFOFST etc. Nguyáť…n Tháť‹ Thu Thᝧy 5IF EFWFMPQNFOU QSPKFDUT OFFE B TPDJPMPHJDBM TVSWFZ BOE ZFU UIJT FMFNFOU XBT not addressed during the meeting. Phan Thuáş­n *O NZ PQJOJPO UISFF TUBLFIPMEFST XFSF BCTFOU BU UIF NFFUJOH UIF MBCPVS TFSWJDF UIF police and the training service.

DĆ°ĆĄng CĂ´ng HĆ°ng The farmers were informed at a date that was too close to the implementation of the QSPKFDUT Trần PhĆ°ĆĄng NguyĂŞn Sociological surveys are important and must CF DBSSJFE PVU CFGPSFIBOE * QBSUJDJQBUFE JO B QSPKFDU JO UIF QSPWJODF PG )VĂ? UIJT UZQF of survey allows us to save money and time. /PCPEZ BEESFTTFE UIF DVMUVSBM GBDUPS BOE ZFU UIJT TFFNT FTTFOUJBM UP NF B EFWFMPQNFOU QSPKFDU NBZ QFSUVSC MPDBM DVMUVSF 8IBU behaviour should we adopt to avoid this QIFOPNFOPO [Jean-Philippe Fontenelle] * XPSLFE B MPU BT BO FYQFSU GPS "'% BOE UIF "TJBO %FWFMPQNFOU #BOL PO UIF RVFTUJPO of irrigation – and de facto PO MBOE JTTVFT øPPEJOH PG TJUFT EFWFMPQNFOU PG SPBET BOE canals. There are constraints for politicians at a national and international level. One of the constraints is that impact studies are costly; the time/economic viability balance is fragile. The present trend is for very structured NFUIPEPMPHJFT XIJDI MFBWF MJUUMF QMBDF GPS the integration of local stakeholders. We must HP BOE TFFL SBX JOGPSNBUJPO CVU XF IBWF MJUUMF UJNF UP EJTDVTT XIBU UIF QSPKFDU NJHIU CF BOE JUT DPOTFRVFODFT 5IF JOWJUBUJPO GPS tender can go so far as to give the number PG QBSUJDJQBUPSZ NFFUJOHT UIF PCKFDUJWFT NBZ CF CMPDLFE UIF OVNCFS PG WJMMBHFT UP CF TVSWFZFE TQFDJĂśFE 'PS B TPDJBM TDJFOUJTU UIF FYFSDJTF JT DPNQMJDBUFE XJUI SFHBSET UP the demands of donors who are particularly strict regarding methods. The challenge is to make more open proposals in response to JOWJUBUJPOT GPS UFOEFS XIJDI BSF PGUFO EFĂśOFE

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

by technical performances and potentially motivated by fashionable phenomena. 8F NVTU VTF XIBU XF IBWF BT BDRVJSFE knowledge to go further with the prior QIBTFT BU QSPKFDU MFWFM 5IF SJTL UIFO JT UP MPTF the invitations to tender by going beyond the GSBNFXPSL UIBU UIF DVTUPNFS FYQFDUT "SF XF ready to take this risk and propose innovative NFUIPET 0S JT UIF FDPOPNJD DPOTUSBJOU UPP NVDI [Yves Le Bars] We could have focused the role-play more PO̓ UIF RVFTUJPO PG øPPEJOH CVU ZPV POMZ partially introduced this dimension. We know that risk management is a very important chapter; we saw this when we addressed the prevention plans for natural risks in France where there is tension between the taking into account of risks and the communal programme of town planning and development.

Day 5, Friday 26th Using the analysis sheet presented by StĂŠphane Cartier on day 3, each group gives its reflections to the group with the help of a PowerPoint document: on an individual, habitat, harvest and national level. A debate begins about the interest of freeing oneself from the concrete situation in order to conceptualise.

2.1.3. An Exercise to Define the Needs of “Floodingâ€? Research [Yves Le Bars] What are the needs of research to support QVCMJD BDUJPO BCPVU øPPEJOH * XJTI UP FNQIBTJTF BHBJO UIF OFDFTTJUZ PG organising the fabrication and elaboration of public decisions’ processes through the pulling together of research and the principal TUBLFIPMEFST *U JT JNQPSUBOU UIBU SFTFBSDI structures reflect on their priorities for action in order to better inform the fabrication processes of public decisions. We had worked together to define the needs of “floodingâ€? research in France. This does not mean replying directly to all RVFTUJPOT PO BMM UFSSJUPSJFT CVU QSFQBSJOH UP enter into the interaction process between SFTFBSDI BOE QVCMJD QPMJDJFT *O UIJT FYFSDJTF TDIFEVMFE PWFS POF ZFBS XF GPSNFE UISFF XPSL HSPVQT DPODFJWFE BO FYBN XJUI DSPTTDVUUJOH RVFTUJPOT BOE B TZOUIFTJT 'PS each work group and each crosscutting RVFTUJPO UIF NFUIPE̓DPOTJTUFE JO MPPLJOH BU B DFSUBJO OVNCFS PG DBTF TUVEJFT FYBNJOJOH UIF PQFSBUJPOBM QSBDUJDFT o JO 'SBODF JO Europe and the world – and noting the OFX DIBMMFOHFT̓ MJOLFE UP UIF RVFTUJPO PG øPPEJOH BOE BMTP DMJNBUF DIBOHF /FYU XF IBE UP FTUBCMJTI UIF TUBUF PG SFTFBSDI )PX IBE JU QVMMFE̓ UPHFUIFS UP NFFU UIFTF DIBMMFOHFT 5IFO ̓ XF DPOTJEFSFE UIF FYQSFTTJPO PG PQFSBUJPOBM PS TPDJBM OFFET by the stakeholders of flood management. 5ISFF̓ BYFT XFSF EFĂśOFE ̓ FTUJNBUJPO FWBMVBUJPO BOE NBQQJOH PG UIF SJTL QFSDFQUJPO QVCMJD QBSUJDJQBUJPO BOE QVCMJD QPMJDJFT SFWJTJPO XBSOJOH DSJTJT management and a return to normal.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

5IFTF BYFT EP OPU DPWFS BMM UIF TVCKFDUT but they appeared to be relevant in relation to possible progress and new research input. The workshop is divided into three groups using the three proposed axes. The trainees are asked to use their personal practices as teacher-researchers as a starting point and outline actions in five general proposals and one crosscutting one. The trainees have half an hour to prepare this work. Group (1) proposals: - Exams, evaluations, and proposals to improve the efficiency of the hydrometeorological system to forecast risks more efficiently; - Research and construction of the TOP index for the construction of the vulnerability evaluation; - Collection and classification of information about past disasters at a communal level; - Evaluating the efficiency of responses to the crisis in order to find the optimal response; - Mapping of flood risk on the basis of past river swelling reports. Group (2) proposals: - Population’s perception of hazards; - Sociological research about the present state of flooding of a community in the Red River Delta; - Evaluation of the response model to flooding with the population’s participation; - Local knowledge about crisis adaptation; - Evaluation of management policies of local flooding; - Construction of a “living together with river swellingâ€? model with the population’s participation.

Crosscutting proposals: research and evaluation of the influences of swelling, and proposal of response strategies with the population’s participation for sustainable development; evaluation of the efficiency of the warning system, and improvement proposal with community participation (case of the mountain region in the north of Viᝇt Nam). Group (3) proposals: - Role of hydro-meteorological establishments for forecasting work; - Analysis of factors influencing the perception and resilience of the population in flooded zones; - The role of different stakeholders in risk management; - Access to capital, and other material means to help the population return to a normal life; - Different means of warning to lessen consequences. [Yves Le Bars] There were several of you who insisted on hydro-meteorological systems that play a significant role in your countries and which could be improved by moving from weather GPSFDBTUT UP IZESPMPHZ GPSFDBTUT GSPN SBJO GPSFDBTUT UP TXFMMJOH GPSFDBTUT *U XPVME BMTP be necessary to specify the methodology for the task of collecting information about past disasters in the communes concerned. * OPUJDF UIBU ZPV FNQIBTJTFE iMJWJOH UPHFUIFS with river swellingâ€? and the importance of UIF QPQVMBUJPOT QBSUJDJQBUJPO XIJDI HJWFT VT some work methodologies to elaborate. :PV BMTP NFOUJPOFE UIF SPMFT PG EJòFSFOU stakeholders and introduced the notion of

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

financing for a return to normal that we had spoken about in the French situation. We DPVME MPPL BU UIJT JO NPSF EFUBJM SFDMBTTJGZ TQFDJGZ BOE TFU QSJPSJUJFT "MM UIF TVCKFDUT EP OPU IBWF UIF TBNF TDPQF :PV DBO TFF UIBU JO IBMG BO IPVS XF DBO HBUIFS UPHFUIFS B DFSUBJO OVNCFS PG SFMFWBOU SFTFBSDI BYFT JO SFMBUJPO to a given social issue. [StĂŠphane Cartier] 3JTL NBOBHFNFOU JT B WBTU TVCKFDU 8F IBWF opted for the prevention aspects rather than the rescue ones. The case studies were diversified in order to show the links with territorial development. The rigorous study of vulnerable populations is crucial. Some SFTFBSDI DBSSJFE PVU JO #FJSVU JOUP TFJTNJD WVMOFSBCJMJUZ VTJOH ĂśFME TVSWFZT TIPXT UIBU XPNFO BSF NPSF WVMOFSBCMF )PXFWFS let us bear in mind that disasters are the SFTVMUT PG DJSDVNTUBODFT *O "MHFSJB UIF FBSUIRVBLF TUSVDL BU B NPNFOU XIFO GBNJMJFT XFSF BU IPNF HSPVQT PG ZPVOH NFO were spared because they were not yet at the table. The end of the day is devoted to the final elaboration of the synthesis report for the following day. The trainees are then divided into two groups for the remainder of the BGUFSOPPO POF HSPVQ XPSLT PO UIF HFOFSBM RVFTUJPO UIF TVC RVFTUJPOT BOE UIF NFUIPET VTFE UIF PUIFS PO UIF SFTVMUT UIF PCTUBDMFT the range of stakeholders and the proposals for public action. Each group then presents its work to all the trainees and trainers. The presentations are commented upon and reviewed with the support of the trainers.

Reading Texts and Working Papers (www.tamdaoconf.com) AMPHAYCHITH, C., P. PHOULIPHANH, C. THONGDAM and T. GAUDIN (2007), “Reports of field surveys in Champassak District, LAO P.D.R.â€?, Working Paper, ISLAND Project, 81 p. DANG, T.P., Q.T. BUI and A.D. TRAN (2007), “Draft report on field surveys in Tu Ky district Hai Duong province, Viet Namâ€?, ISLAND Project, 48 p. EA, K., S.S. HEANG, S. PRAK and J.M. BRUN (2005), “Assessment of local authorities and communities’ practices and information needs to face disastersâ€?, Working Paper, ISLAND - Information Systems for Local Authorities’ Needs to face Disasters, Report from surveys in Ba Phnom and Peam Ro districts, Prey Veng Province, Gret/Cedac, Cambodia, 51 p. Le Bars, Y (2007), Gestion des risques: innover dans la fabrication des stratĂŠgies d’action, Leipzig symposium “Sustainable Neighbourhood, from Lisbon to Leipzig through researchâ€?. *OUFSOFU 4JUF Ministère de l’Écologie, du DĂŠveloppement durable et de l’Énergie. La politique de prĂŠvention des risques en France, http://www. developpement-durable.gouv.fr/

Selective Bibliography $"35*&3 4 j .JDSP[POBHFT TJTNJRVFT dans les vallĂŠes alpines et dĂŠclinaison MPDBMF EFT SĂ’HMFT E VSCBOJTNF x JO Revue de gĂŠographie alpine 5 OÂĄÍƒ $"35*&3 4 j -FT TDJFODFT TPDJBMFT FU MFT SJTRVFT OBUVSFMT BQQSPDIFT SĂ?DFOUFT x in Natures Sciences SociĂŠtĂŠs

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

$"35*&3 4 j -FT OPVWFBVY QSPUPDPMFT E BDUJPO QVCMJRVF EBOT MB HFTUJPO EFT SJTRVFT OBUVSFMT x JO '"63& " FU " $ %06*--&5 L’action publique et la question territoriale 16( (SFOPCMF $"35*&3 4 j *NQMJDBUJPOT EV QVCMJD GBDF BVY SJTRVFT OBUVSFMT EĂ?MĂ?HBUJPO BVY QPVWPJST QVCMJDT PV DPOTUSVDUJPO MPDBMF EFT QPMJUJRVFT QBSUJDJQBUJWFT x JO -"+"353& EF " BOE 7 ("#03*&"6 FET Les collectivitĂŠs territoriales face aux risques physiques - )BSNBUUBO DPMMFDUJPO MPHJRVFT KVSJEJRVFT $"35*&3 4 j -F SJTRVF FBV x JO %610/5 : FE Dictionnaire des risques, "SNBOE $PMJO 1BSJT $"35*&3 4 Chronique d’un dĂŠluge annoncĂŠ, crise de la solidaritĂŠ face aux risques naturels (SBTTFU $"35*&3 4 j 3VJTTFMMFNFOU Ă?SPTJG QSĂ?WFOUJPO EFT SJTRVFT PV EFT DPOøJUT x JO Natures, Sciences, SociĂŠtĂŠs WPM OÂĄÍƒ $"35*&3 4 j %F MB TPMJEBSJUĂ? UFSSJUPSJBMF GBDF BV SVJTTFMMFNFOU Ă?SPTJG Ă‹ MB TPDJBMJTBUJPO VSCBJOF EV UFSSJUPJSF SVSBM x JO -6(*/#Ăƒ)- ̓: FE Nouvelles urbanitĂŠs, nouvelles ruralitĂŠs en Europe 1*& 1FUFS -BOH 4 " #SVTTFMT $"35*&3 4 j -F SVJTTFMMFNFOU $IFWBM EF 5SPJF E VO BNĂ?OBHFNFOU SVSBM DPOĂŽV QPVS MB WJMMF x JO Cahiers Agricultures 5 OÂĄÍƒ $"35*&3 4 BOE - $0-#&"6 +645*/ La sĂŠcuritĂŠ scolaire Ă l’Êpreuve du risque sismique, fractures de coordination et solidaritĂŠ de responsabilitĂŠ %PDVNFOUBUJPO 'SBOĂŽBJTF Paris. $"35*&3 4 BOE 4 #30$)05 j .BĂ”USJTFS MB EĂ?NFTVSF DPOTUSVJSF MF DPOĂśBODF M JOWFOUJWJUĂ? QPMJUJRVF EFT FYQFSUT GBDF BVY SJTRVFT OBUVSFMT x JO %6.06-*/ - 3 $ -" #3"/$)& BOE 1 8"3*/ FET Le recours aux experts, raisons et usages politiques 16( (SFOPCMF

$"35*&3 4 BOE "1 .&55069 j -B .POUBHOF 6OF FU *OEJWJTJCMF .BĂ”USJTFS les avalanches malgrĂŠ la segmentation UFSSJUPSJBMF EFT NBTTJGT FU EFT IPNNFT x JO Revue de gĂŠographie alpine OÂĄÍƒ $"35*&3 4 BOE " 1&-5*&3 -B NBĂ”USJTF TQBUJBMF EFT SJTRVFT HSBWJUBJSFT FU TJTNJRVFT FO 'SBODF FO *UBMJF FU FO 4VJTTF̓ NJUJHBUJPO [POBMF PV UFDIOJRVF JO '035 . BOE ' ̓ 0(& FET Risques naturels en mĂŠditerranĂŠe occidentale 1BSJT $"35*&3 4 ' 7*/&5 BOE + $ ("*--"3% j̓.BĂ”USF EV NPOEF PV NBĂ”USF EF TPJ ̓x JO #&$&33" 4 BOE " 1&-5*&3 FET Risques et environnement : recherches interdisciplinaires sur la vulnĂŠrabilitĂŠ des sociĂŠtĂŠs - )BSNBUUBO Paris. $0-#&"6 +645*/ - % ."3$)"/% 4 $"35*&3 BOE # %& 7"/44": j (BSE FU )Ă?SBVMU̓ SĂ?BDUJPOT DSJUJRVFT FU QSPQPTJUJPOT EFT QPQVMBUJPOT x JO PrĂŠventique OÂĄ QQ ̓ -"/( . # $)"45"/ BOE ' (3&-05 ÂŤÂ La mĂŠthode inondabilitĂŠ : appropriation par les hydrologues de la vulnĂŠrabilitĂŠ dans le diagnostic sur les risques d’inondation  IUUQ IBM BSDIJWFT PVWFS UFT GS IBM -"63&/5 $ 4 $"35*&3 $ '"#3& 1 .6/%-&3 % 10/$)&-&5 BOE + 3&.: j̓ - BDUJWJUĂ? BHSJDPMF EFT NĂ?OBHFT SVSBVY FU MB DPIĂ?TJPO Ă?DPOPNJRVF FU TPDJBMF x JO Economie Rurale 7"--&55& $ BOE 4 $"35*&3 j̓%Ă?OPNCSFS QPVS NBĂ”USJTFS MFT EPNNBHFT EFT DBUBTUSPQIFT OBUVSFMMFT̓ x Vertigo WPM ̓

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

List of Trainees Surname and first name

Establishment

Domain/Discipline

Research theme

Email

Dương Công Hưng

University of Sciences and Technology, Hà Nội (USTH)

Hydrology and oceanography

Climate change

hung.hdc@hotmail. com

Dương Hiền Hạnh

University of Thủ Dầu Một

Poverty and transnational migration, social policies and community health

Risks in rural zones, Migrations

duonghien1972@ yahoo.com

Impact of disasters on inhabitants’ lives

hoangquyenhv4@ yahoo.com

Risks and gender

honghai.ifg@gmail. com

Adaptations in the face of disaster risk and climate change

ngocthaoluong@ gmail.com

Policies in the face of changes; Place of the French language after Cambodia’s integration into the ASEAN in 2015

molvibol@yahoo. com

Institute of Policies and Administration Socio-politics Zone IV Institute of Research Lê Thị Hồng Hải for Family and Family and gender Gender Institute of Lương Ngọc Development Urban anthropology Thảo Research Climate change, the FrenchCambodia Institute speaking world MOL Vibol of Technology and globalisation, international business law Hoàng Thị Quyên

Ngô Văn Bữu

Centre of Research Urban economy and for Urban Planning development and Development

Nguyễn Kim Chung

University of the Environment and Resources

Nguyễn Ngọc An Giang University Vàng Nguyễn Thị Đoan Trang

University of the Environment and Resources Institute of Social Sciences of Central Viet Nam

Environmental development

Impact of urbanisation, employment, population migration, environmental economy Evaluation of environmental risk impact, climate change and environmental management

buungovn@gmail. com

nkchung83@gmail. com

Economy of sustainable development

Climate change and agricultural production

ngocvangnguyen@ gmail.com

Environmental management

Environmental risks, climate change

ntdtrang@hcmunre. edu.vn

Vulnerability of rural xuyenthanh27@ populations (Quang Tri gmail.com Province) Human development, Human security, climate Nguyễn Thị Thu Institute of Human thuynt1012@gmail. development change, poverty and rural Thủy Research com anthropology development Nguyễn Thị Thanh Xuyên

Anthropology

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Surname and first name

Establishment

Domain/Discipline

Research theme

Email

Phạm Thị Mai Thảo

University of Natural Resources and the Environment

Environmental management

Impact evaluation and environmental risk

ptmthao@gmail.com

Phạm Thu Hương

Institute of Human Research

Sociology

Human security, HDI, human rights

huongpham251288@gmail. com

Phạm Trung Hiếu

Training Institute for Social Sciences

Law

Phan Thuận

Institute of Policies and Administration Zone IV

Sociology

Quách Thị Thu Cúc SUN DANY Trần Phương Nguyên Vũ Thị Ngọc

Institute of Social Sciences of the South Royal University of Law and Economic Sciences Institute of Social Sciences of the South Institute of Social Sciences of the Central Viet Nam

Exploitation and management of natural resources Risks and challenges for vulnerable populations in the face of natural disasters

hieupham213@ gmail.com phanthuanhv4@ yahoo.com

Development

Population and development

quachthucuc@gmail. com

Law and the environment

Impacts on the environment

dany.sun@ymail.com

Linguistics, Society

Chăm population

minhphuong2k5@ yahoo.com

Geography and Environment

Climate change and vulnerability of coastal populations

ngocvu1583@gmail. com

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

'JOBODJBM BOE &DPOPNJD Risks Sophie Pardo, Phấm Tháť‹ Háť“ng Hấnh, Adrian Pop, Yves Perraudeau, Thomas VallĂŠe - University of Nantes

(Transcript)

[Sophie Pardo]

Day 1, Monday 22nd Introduction of trainers and trainees cf. trainers’ biographies inserted at end of chapter. Yves Perradeau sets out the timetable, the workshop’s objectives and Saturday’s feedback, and also gives the required daily exercises. The reading texts that had already been sent by email to the trainees were handed out in the workshop; they will serve as a base for day two’s work. Sophie Pardo returns to the notion of risk that was addressed during the two days of the plenary session and focuses notably on the question of perception – the terms “SĚ&#x;J SPâ€? and “nguy cĆĄâ€?. A dialogue with the workshop begins.

*O FWFSZEBZ MBOHVBHF XF PGUFO BTTPDJBUF the notion of risk with that of loss and EBOHFS 0WFS UXP EBZT XF EJTDVTTFE OBUVSBM SJTLT BTTPDJBUFE XJUI MJGF TDJFODFT XJUI B EFĂśOJUJPO UIBU CSFBLT EPXO SJTL JOUP IB[BSE WVMOFSBCJMJUZ BOE FYQPTVSF 5IF QPTUVSF JT UP FYBNJOF SJTL BT B OFHBUJWF FMFNFOU UIBU XJMM̓ IBWF BO JNQBDU PO UFSSJUPSZ IVNBO TPDJFUZ GPPE FUD 0O UIF PUIFS IBOE JG XF UBLF BO FDPOPNJTU T B ĂśOBODJFS T PS B NBUIFNBUJDJBOT QPJOU PG WJFX UIF OPUJPO JT EJòFSFOU UIFSF JT B EJNFOTJPO PG JOTUBCJMJUZ CVU BMTP POF PG QSPĂśUBCJMJUZ BOE PQQPSUVOJUZ the economist and the statistician define risk BT UIF WBSJBCJMJUZ SPVOE BO BWFSBHF SFTVMU *U JT OPU B OFDFTTBSJMZ OFHBUJWF OPUJPO XF BDDFQU “the taking of riskâ€?.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

5IJT SFNJOEFS JT JNQPSUBOU XIFO XF UBML BCPVU EFWFMPQNFOU FOWJSPONFOUBM PS ĂśOBODJBM FDPOPNZ UIJT JNQMJFT B OPUJPO PG risk and it may occur that we debate with people who do not share the same definition. 5IF FDPOPNJTU JT JOUFSFTUFE JO ĂśOBODJBM DPNNFSDJBM BOE FDPOPNJD SJTLT CVU BMTP JO technological and environmental risks that BòFDU CPUI UIF FOWJSPONFOU BOE TPDJFUZ -FU VT UBLF UXP FYBNQMFT Pure risk. An enterprise may face the risk of ĂśSF øPPEJOH PS B NBUFSJBM SJTL BOE UIJT SJTL is only envisaged in its dimension of loss. The measure that we use to gauge this risk JT QSPCBCJMJUZ o JG JU JT LOPXO o BOE UIF TJ[F of the losses that we anticipate in relation to the disaster. The natural tool of cover that DPNFT UP NJOE JT JOTVSBODF XIJDI BMMPXT us to transfer the risk to a third party. The TJ[F PG UIF SJTL EFQFOET PO UIF OBUVSF PG UIF enterprise. The solutions may also involve selfQSPUFDUJPO BOE TFMG JOTVSBODF ĂśSF USBJOJOH GPS TUBò FWBDVBUJPO FYFSDJTFT FUD *O UIJT DBTF the cover is adopted before the disaster. "GUFS UIF EJTBTUFS JU JT B RVFTUJPO PG EJTBTUFS management and no longer cover. The enterprise may also face a price risk GPS FYBNQMF BOE UIJT SJTL JT OPU OFDFTTBSJMZ OFHBUJWF *U NBZ CF B QSJDF WBSJBUJPO SJTL GPS SBX NBUFSJBMT GPS JOQVU PS GPS TBMFT UIF measure of risk proposed by the economist XJMM UIFO CF OPU UIF TJ[F PG MPTTFT CVU NBSLFU price volatility. Risk transfer is then done using financial IFEHJOH JOTUSVNFOUT TVDI BT GVUVSF PQUJPOT *O UIJT DBTF UIF QFSTPO XJTIJOH UP DPWFS himself against a rise in risk will invest in certain financial assets – covered options for FYBNQMF UIF QFSTPO HBNCMJOH PO B SJTF XJMM make profits.

0OF MBTU QPJOU UIF EJTUJODUJPO CFUXFFO SJTL BOE VODFSUBJOUZ ,OJHIU ĂśSTU NBEF UIJT EJTUJODUJPO UIF SJTL JT NFBTVSBCMF CZ B MBX PG PCKFDUJWF QSPCBCJMJUZ TIBSFE CZ FWFSZPOF while uncertainty corresponds to situations where the measure of probability is absent GSPN BO PCKFDUJWF QPJOU PG WJFX 5IF QFSDFQUJPO BOE BUUJUVEF XIJDI EFQFOE PO DVMUVSF BOE QFSTPOBMJUZ FUD are fundamental in the risk management adopted.

2.2.1. Geopolitics and Country risk [Yves Perraudeau] We can consider geopolitics from a macroeconomic approach but this notion also makes sense on the scale of an enterprise. Management science is at the interface between the enterprise and the environment JO XIJDI JU JT TJUVBUFE UIF FOUFSQSJTF T TUSBUFHZ̓ UIVT JOUFHSBUFT QPMJUJDBM FDPOPNJD NPOFUBSZ BOE FOWJSPONFOUBM SJTLT FUD in a nutshell the country risk is perceived in EJòFSFOU XBZT BDDPSEJOH UP BHFODJFT SBUJOHT and other structures. Introduction to Geopolitics (FPQPMJUJDT JT B TDJFODF UIBU TUVEJFT the relationships between politics and HFPHSBQIZ ̓ #VU XIBU HFPHSBQIZ BSF XF TQFBLJOH BCPVU - The determinist or materialistic approach deals with the influence of the natural milieu on relations between states. /BQPMFPO TBJE UIBU UIF QPMJUJDT PG TUBUFT MJFT in their geography. The power of states is largely determined by natural and physical DPOEJUJPOT o "NFSJDBO BOE (FSNBO TDIPPMT BOE QBSUJBMMZ UIF 'SFODI POF 5IF RVFTUJPO

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

PG UIF TUBUF TQBDF MJOL JT UIVT QPTFE UIJT link is a central point of geopolitical schools; - The relativist approach considers that geographical determinism is not significant in a certain number of cases. This relativity of relationships between man BOE NJMJFV DBO CF FYQMBJOFE CZ UIF NPSF PS MFTT IJHI FĂłDJFODZ PG TPDJBM BOE economic systems in the organisation of relationships between man and his milieu (FPSHF $FSUBJO HFPHSBQIFST TVDI BT + "ODFM BMTP FNQIBTJTFE UIF temporal instability of certain geographical FMFNFOUT XJOET DVSSFOUT FUD 'SPN UIF CFHJOOJOH PG UIF th DFOUVSZ UIFSF XBT a debate about the scientific value of the NBUFSJBMJTU BQQSPBDI 7JEBM EF MB #MBODIF XIJDI MFE DFSUBJO HFPHSBQIFST UP UBLF B HFPNPSQIPMPHJDBM BQQSPBDI XIFSF XF ĂśOE B DMFBS TDJFOUJĂśD EJNFOTJPO BT FBSUI TDJFODFT BSF QSFTFOU EF .BSUPOOF This debate is still present in geopolitical TDIPPMT 5PEBZ DFSUBJO HFPHSBQIFST DPOTJEFS that geopolitics should not only be very broadly similar to knowledge linked to QIZTJDBM BOE IVNBO HFPHSBQIZ CVU BMTP UP UIF PUIFS TDJFODFT -BDPTUF 8F NVTU EJTUJOHVJTI CFUXFFO HFPQPMJUJDT which concerns a discourse between space BOE QPMJUJDT BOE HFPTUSBUFHZ XIJDI JT B method that leads to the implementation of such a policy or action. This may be pacific HFPTUSBUFHZ JO UJNFT PG QFBDF JU UIFO NFBOT leading all the forces in a country to prepare for an event. This may also be in times of war – cf. military conflict. Military geography is a EJTDJQMJOF UIBU HPFT CBDL UP BOUJRVJUZ BOE EP we not still say today “geography is above all used to wage warw -BDPTUF

Certain aspects of maritime geopolitics are developed in order to illustrate thought in reference works (Coutau-BĂŠgarie, 2007; Royer, 2012; VigariĂŠ, 1990) and also in workshop 1of Tam Ä?ảo days 2012 (Beurier et al., 2013).

*O PSEFS UP DPODMVEF UIJT ĂśSTU JOUSPEVDUPSZ QBSU MFU VT SFUVSO UP B GFX EFĂśOJUJPOT PG HFPQPMJUJDT *OUFSBDUJPOT CFUXFFO HFPHSBQIJDBM TQBDF and the power rivalries that result from them; - Conflicts of interest linked to a socioFDPOPNJD BOE QPMJUJDBM SFBMJUZ BOE or conflicts sometimes imagined and created by tradition – cf 'SBODF (FSNBOZ PQQPTJUJPO̓o CZ JOGPSNBUJPO o cf. unfound DIFNJDBM XFBQPOT JO *SBL FUD : -BDPTUF BOE Th. De Montribal emphasise these problems PG SFQSFTFOUBUJPO (FPQPMJUJDT JT UIFO UIF “part of geography that deals with ideologies relating to territoriesw EF̓.POUCSJBM Schools and Fundamentals of Geopolitical Science We are now going to present certain geopolitical schools. The first author to use the term geopolitics XBT 3 ,KFMMĂ?O BU UIF FOE PG UIF th century. 3 ,KFMMĂ?O B 4XFEF EFĂśOFE HFPQPMJUJDT BT UIF relationship of the state with its territory. 5IF ĂśSTU TDIPPM PG HFPQPMJUJDT JT UIF (FSNBO TDIPPM ' 3BU[FM USJFE UP HJWF his country’s territory a certain legitimacy. The approach was environmentalist and OBUVSBMJTU BOE JOøVFODFE CZ %BSXJO UIF growth of states can be analysed like the

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

growth of biological organisms. There is a link CFUXFFO UIF QPXFS PG UIF TUBUF UIF QFPQMF BOE UIF MBOE 5IJT MJOL JT JNQPSUBOU JG XF BSF UP VOEFSTUBOE (FSNBO QPMJDZ BU UIF FOE PG UIF th BOE CFHJOOJOH PG UIF th century. 3BU[FM̓JOUSPEVDFE UISFF NBKPS DPODFQUT UIF OPUJPO PG TDPQF OVSUVSJOH TQBDF PG GSPOUJFS and of the position of the country (vicinity). *O PSEFS UP TVSWJWF UIF TUBUF MJLF BOZ OBUVSBM PSHBOJTN NVTU QSPHSFTTJWFMZ QVTI CBDL JUT GSPOUJFST BOE GPSUJGZ JUT UFSSJUPSZ UP BĂłSN JUT strength and greatness. 5IF TFDPOE BVUIPS PG UIF (FSNBO TDIPPM JT , )BVTIPGFS IF EFWFMPQFE UIF UIFPSZ PG WJUBM TQBDF UP KVTUJGZ (FSNBO FYQBOTJPO 5IJT UIFPSZ XBT UBLFO VQ BOE JOUFSQSFUFE CZ )JUMFS o OPUBCMZ UISPVHI 3VEPMG )FTT XIP XBT B TUVEFOU PG )BVTIPGFS This notion of vital space is central as it is JODPNQBUJCMF XJUI UIF SJHIUT PG QFPQMFT “Great nations must have big territoriesâ€?. 'VSUIFSNPSF UIF (FSNBO TDIPPM BUUBDIFE HSFBU JNQPSUBODF UP DBSUPHSBQIZ B TUSBUFHJD JOTUSVNFOU FTTFOUJBM UP UIF (FSNBO BSNZ 4JS )BMGPSE .BDLJOEFS &OHMJTI school) took up the words of Walter Raleigh about maritime power – “The master of the seas is the master of the worldâ€? – and also insisted on the importance of territorial space and SBJMXBZT #VU UIF NPTU JNQPSUBOU UIJOH XBT UIF DFOUSBM SPMF IF HBWF UP "TJB DFOUSBM "TJB BOE DFOUSBM &VSPQF 'PS IJN DFOUSBM "TJB JT UIF QJWPU PG IJTUPSZ BOE UIPTF XIP EPNJOBUFE

DFOUSBM "TJB OPUBCMZ UISPVHI SBJMXBZT XPVME dominate the world. The challenge thus MBZ JO UIF EPNJOBUJPO PG UIF )FBSUMBOE UIF central European plain from Western Siberia UP UIF .FEJUFSSBOFBO UP UIF .JEEMF &BTU BOE 4PVUIFSO "TJB .BDLJOEFS 5IJT theory still plays today an essential role in VOEFSTUBOEJOH EJWFSTF NJMJUBSZ TUSBUFHJFT XJUI B TUSPOH BYJT GSPN UIF /PSUI PG &VSPQF UIF #BMUJD UP UIF *OEJBO 0DFBO -FU VT OPX MPPL BU UIF "NFSJDBO TDIPPM "ENJSBM "MGSFE 5IBZFS .BIBO XBT̓ JOøVFODFE CZ #SJUJTI IJTUPSZ BOE JUT TUSBUFHZ PG TFB QPXFS )F BEWJTFE UIF United States to develop its “Sea Powerâ€?. )F̓ USJFE UP MJNJU UIF NBSJUJNF EFWFMPQNFOU PG (FSNBOZ BOE +BQBO BOE SFDPNNFOEFE B TUSPOH BMMJBODF XJUI UIF 6OJUFE ,JOHEPN )F̓ XBT BXBSF UIBU UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT XPVME never be able to have colonies like the English and thus called for a presence of the American navy throughout the world. The American fleet would become the biggest fleet in the world in the first half of UIF th̓ DFOUVSZ 4QZLFNBO EFWFMPQFE GPS IJT QBSU UIF 3JNMBOE UIFPSZ XIJMF CPSSPXJOH UIF )FBSUMBOE UIFPSZ IF believed that the First World War overturned .BLJOEFS T UIFPSZ )F BUUBDIFE JNQPSUBODF UP UIF iJOOFS SJOHw NBSJUJNF [POFT UIBU TVSSPVOE UIF )FBSUMBOE PS FWFO 3JNMBOE UIBU JU XBT OFDFTTBSZ UP DPOUSPM *U XBT UIVT BO JOWFSTJPO of Mackinder’s theorem.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Map 12 Rimland Theory

Source: Kaplan (2011).

We can see the importance of maritime QPXFS XIJDI JT JOUFHSBUFE JOUP XPSME DPOUSPM 4VCTFRVFOU UP .BIBOU T BOE 4QZLFNBO T XPSLT ( ' ,FOOBO EFWFMPQFE UIF UIFPSZ of Containment that aimed at blocking UIF FYUFOTJPO UIF [POF PG TPWJFU JOรธVFODF 4FWFSBM GSPOUT XFSF JNQPSUBOU UIF *SPO $VSUBJO JO &VSPQF UIF DPOรธJDUT JO UIF 'BS &BTU BOE NPSFอ SFDFOUMZ UIPTF JO UIF .JEEMF &BTU Allow me to finish this rapid overview with the 'SFODI TDIPPM XIJDI JT รถSTU DIBSBDUFSJTFE CZ B DFSUBJO DPOUFTUBUJPO PG UIF (FSNBO TDIPPM PG 3BU[FM T EFUFSNJOJTN BOE JUT SFMBUJPO XJUI UIF GVUVSF PG QFPQMFT BOE UIF QBSUJBMJUZ PG (FSNBO HFPQPMJUJDT XIJDI XBT VTFE CZ UIF /B[JT 5IF JEFB JT UIBU JU JT OFDFTTBSZ UP UBLF .BO JOUP BDDPVOU QBSUJDVMBSMZ JO NPEFSO societies where civilisation gets the better of OBUVSF (FPQPMJUJDT XBT CBOJTIFE JO 'SBODF VOUJM UIF T ' #SBVEFM UIFO TQPLF BCPVU iHFPIJTUPSZw JO IJT UIFTJT JO

5IF UFSN XBT SFIBCJMJUBUFE JO UIF T particularly via ,JTTJOHFS UIF "NFSJDBO State Secretary who was a central player in "NFSJDBO JOUFSOBUJPOBM QPMJDZ JO UIF T BOE T )JT QSJODJQBM BDUJPOT DPODFSOFE the detente policy with China and the 4PWJFU 6OJPO )F BMTP XPSLFE UP QVU BO FOE UP XBS JO 7Jฬ U /BN UP UIF ,JQQPVS XBS BOE JOUFSWFOFE JO UIF ,INFS 3PVHF EPTTJFS JO $BNCPEJB *Oอ 'SBODF UXP iLFZw BVUIPST BMTP SFVTF UIF UFSN :WFT -BDPTUF DSFBUPS PG UIF Institut Franรงais de Gรฉopolitique and the revue Hรฉrodote XIP CFDBNF LOPXO CFDBVTF PG the bombing of the Red River delta during the XBS CFUXFFO UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT BOE 7Jฬ U /BN BOE 5IJFSSZ EF .POUCSJBM UIF EJSFDUPS PG UIF Institut Franรงais des Relations Internationales *'3* *O UIF MBUUFS QSPNPUFE HPPE world governance - World Policy Conference. 5IF FOE PG UIF $PME 8BS GPMMPXFE CZ UIF collapse of the Soviet block marked the DIBOHF GSPN BO BOBMZTJT PG B CJQPMBS XPSME with on one side the Communists and on the

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

PUIFS UIF 8FTU UP NPSF HMPCBM BQQSPBDIFT that were more open to other disciplines ' #SBVEFM T iXPSME FDPOPNZw ' ̓ 'VLVZBNB T iFOE PG IJTUPSZw 4 )VOUJOHUPO T iDMBTI PG DJWJMJTBUJPOTw FUD 'PS FYBNQMF 4BNVFM )VOUJOHUPO JOUSPEVDFE UIF notion of civilisation and defined new EJWJEJOH MJOFT " 8FTUFSO DJWJMJTBUJPO $ISJTUJBOJUZ $BUIPMJD and Protestant); "O 0SUIPEPY DJWJMJTBUJPO " -BUJOP "NFSJDBO DJWJMJTBUJPO $BUIPMJD CVU EJòFSFOU UP 8FTUFSO DJWJMJTBUJPO "O *TMBNJD DJWJMJTBUJPO - An African civilisation (animism and Christianity); " )JOEV DJWJMJTBUJPO " #VEEIJTU DJWJMJTBUJPO 5BOUSJD BOE -FTTFS 7FIJDMF #VEEIJTN " $IJOFTF DJWJMJTBUJPO (SFBUFS 7FIJDMF #VEEIJTN $POGVDJBOJTN BOE 5BPJTN " +BQBOFTF DJWJMJTBUJPO QSFEPNJOBOUMZ Shinto). Three conflicts emerge between the West BOE 3VTTJBO PSUIPEPYZ UIF 8FTU BOE *TMBN and the West and Confucianism (China). The UFSSPSJTU BUUBDLT PG UIF th PG 4FQUFNCFS SFJOGPSDFE )VOUJOHUPO T UIFPSZ JO TQJUF PG criticism aimed at his conflating of civilisation BOE SFMJHJPO o BO FYUSFNF TJNQMJĂśDBUJPO PG reality. The New Realities of Geopolitics American post-war supremacy is somewhat CSPVHIU JOUP RVFTUJPO XJUI OPUBCMZ UIF TUBODF PG 'SBODF DPODFSOJOH UIF OVDMFBS BSN UIF SFDPHOJUJPO PG QPQVMBS $IJOB BOE JUT MFBWJOH PG /"50 CVU BMTP UIF GBJMVSF of the United States during the conflict in 7JĚ?U̓/BN

$PNNVOJTU QPXFS BMTP TVòFSFE CFDBVTF PG Tito’s refusal of alignment in order to promote BOPUIFS QPMJUJDBM NPEFM UIF FOE PG UIF $IJOB 6443 USFBUZ $IJOB T CFDPNJOH B OVDMFBS QPXFS FUD 8JUIJO UIF WFSZ DPNNVOJTU CMPDL Soviet supremacy was weakened. 8IBU JT NPSF UIF JOUFSOBUJPOBM TJUVBUJPO was characterised by world economic JOTUBCJMJUZ UIF EFDJTJPO UP øPBU UIF EPMMBS JO BOE UIF BOE QFUSPM DSJTFT 5IF XPSME CFDBNF NPSF QPMJUJDJTFE which strengthened the place occupied by geopolitics – “the contemporary politicisation of spacew %FGBZ We were witnessing a fragmentation of the XPSME TUBUFT JO JO NPSF UIBO DPVOUSJFT UPEBZ UIF FOE PG DPMPOJFT (independencies with discussions about contested frontiers); breaking up of :VHPTMBWJB UIBU IBE HSPVQFE UPHFUIFS UIF #BMLBOT 4MPWFOJB 4FSCJB "MCBOJB and Montenegro) in a “communist fatherlandâ€?; the fall of the Soviet Union .JOTL "HSFFNFOU DSFBUJPO PG UIF $PNNPOXFBMUI PG *OEFQFOEFOU 4UBUFT $*4 XJUI ̓SFQVCMJDT FUD The end of bipolarism also led to a momentary return of the American “hyper powerâ€? GSPN UIF T UP UIF DSJTJT (MPCBMJTBUJPO UPPL UIF GPSN PG BO internationalisation of enterprises and QSPEVDUJWF QSPDFTTFT SJTF JO JOUSB PS FYUSB ĂśSN JOUFSOBUJPOBM FYDIBOHFT SJTF JO OPO HPWFSONFOUBM XPSME TUSVDUVSFT 'JOBMMZ we changed from a bi-polar world at the CFHJOOJOH PG UIF th DFOUVSZ UP B USJQPMBS POF̓ 6OJUFE 4UBUFT &VSPQF +BQBO 4PVUI ,PSFB UPXBSET UIF NJEEMF PG UIF th̓DFOUVSZ

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

UP B öOBMMZ NVMUJ QPMBS POF UPEBZ /FX BDUPST entered into the rivalries for power over space – the turnover of the ten biggest firms in the world is higher than the gross national QSPEVDU PG DPVOUSJFT JO UIF 6/ 5IFTF FOUFSQSJTFT BSF JO UISFF QSJODJQBM TFDUPST FOFSHZ CBOL JOTVSBODF EJTUSJCVUJPO -FU VT UBLF TPNF FYBNQMFT -BPT IBT B TNBMMFS (/1 UIBO )FJO[ $BNCPEJB T JT MPXFS UIBO "MTUPN T 7J̏U /BN T JT MPXFS UIBO UIF 5PUBM HSPVQ BOE 5IBJMBOE T MPXFS UIBO &YYPO .PCJM

#FZPOE UIJT JMMFHBM USBóDLJOH OFX geopolitical data is characterised by terrorism and particularly international terrorism. Take GPS FYBNQMF UIF DBTF PG "M 2BJEB

#FIJOE UIJT NVMUJQMJDJUZ PG QMBZFST SJWBMSJFT are coming to light with the location of enterprises that are a factor of wealth BOE KPC DSFBUJPO 5IF QFSJPE PG NJTUSVTU SFHBSEJOH GPSFJHO EJSFDU JOWFTUNFOU '%* XBT USBOTGPSNFE JO JOUP B QPMJDZ PG attractiveness.

*OUFSOBUJPOBM UFSSPSJTN BMMPXT VT UP TUVEZ UIF TJUVBUJPO JO UIF .JEEMF &BTU .BVSJDF (PEFMJFS shows the links between fundamentalist *TMBN BOE UIF 4BVEJ EZOBTUZ BOE UIF SFMBUJPOTIJQ XJUI UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT JO %FGBZ 5IF MJOL CFUXFFO 4BVEJ QPXFS BOE .PIBNFE #FO BM 8BIIBC HPFT CBDL UP UIF th century and since the fundamentalist religious doctrine was politically imposed. *O UIF DPVOUSZ IBE B MPX QPQVMBUJPO BOE OFFEFE QSPUFDUJPO B TUSBUFHJD BMMJBODF XBT NBEF CFUXFFO *CO 4BPVE BOE 1SFTJEFOU Roosevelt (petrol for military protection).

The globalisation of activities was accompanied by an “underground” HMPCBMJTBUJPO XJUI JMMFHBM USBóDLJOH DPSSVQUJPO UBY IBWFOT XJUI JO TPNF DBTFT state complicity. 1FUFS % 4DPUU B 1SPGFTTPS BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG #FSLFMFZ BOE B $BOBEJBO EJQMPNBU TIPXFE GPS FYBNQMF UIF FYJTUFODF PG B HMPCBM narcotic connection in which there is a link between a strategy of the American army and the location of a certain number of drug USBóDLJOH DJSDMFT JO #VSNB JO "GHIBOJTUBO BOE JO 7FOF[VFMB )F VOEFSMJOFT UIF MJOL between the global banking system and revenue from narcotics (“narconomy”) – cf ̓ UIF TDBOEBM PG )4#$ NPOFZ MBVOEFSJOH 64% CJMMJPO öOF UP IBMU criminal proceedings!); cf. a US Senate report iEach year, between USD 300 billion and USD 1 trillion of criminal origin is laundered, of which 50% is done by American banks” (“private banks”).

[Thomas Vallée] -FU VT OPU GPSHFU UIBU HMPCBMJTBUJPO UIVT DPWFST TFWFSBM BTQFDUT FDPOPNJD öOBODJBM DBQJUBM IVNBO NJHSBUJPOT DVMUVSBM QPMJUJDBM FUD [Yves Perraudeau]

*O UIF .JEEMF &BTU EFNPHSBQIJDT JT JNQPSUBOU QPQVMBUFE PJM QSPEVDJOH DPVOUSJFT *SBO *SBL ̓ IBWF BO JOEVTUSJBMJTBUJPO TUSBUFHZ in order to provide employment to their QPQVMBUJPO XIJMF UIF PJM QSPEVDJOH DPVOUSJFT XJUI MPX QPQVMBUJPOT ,VXBJU 2BUBS 4BVEJ Arabia) have financial placement strategies. This aspect allows us to understand certain EJWJTJPOT CFUXFFO "SBC DPVOUSJFT CFZPOE religious divisions. The United States used Wahhabism in Afghanistan against the Soviet invasion /FBSMZ GVOEBNFOUBMJTUT GSPN EJòFSFOU DPVOUSJFT GPVHIU UIF 4PWJFU invader in this Muslim country – the notion PG B SFMJHJPVT BSNZ MBSHFMZ TVQQPSUFE CZ

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

4BVEJ "SBCJB BSPVOE BO BQQSPBDI UIBU XBT not national but religious. The Americans financed the fundamentalists in Afghanistan BOE HBWF UIFN XFBQPOT o #S[F[JOTLJ B TFDVSJUZ BEWJTPS VOEFS 1SFTJEFOUT + $BSUFS 3 3FBHBO BOE ( 8 #VTI XSPUF i y The Soviets invade Afghanistan, they will have their Vietnam”. We find again here the theory PG .BDLJOEFS BOE 4QZLFNBO UIF JEFB PG preventing the USSR from advancing to the *OEJBO 0DFBO 8F NJHIU BMTP DJUF UIF *SBOJBO DBTF CFUXFFO UIF $BTQJBO 4FB BOE UIF TUSBJUT PG 0SNV[ XIFSF UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT participated in the financing of the religious SFWPMVUJPO XIJDI XBT QSFGFSBCMF UP B QPQVMBS revolution that might have sought alliance with the USSR. This American intervention in the Middle &BTU GBWPVSFE UIF CJSUI PG "M 2BJEB BOE KJIBEJTU UFSSPSJTN 5IF 5BMJCBO WJDUPSZ PWFS UIF Soviets stopped them advancing towards UIF *OEJBO 0DFBO 8F DBO VOEFSTUBOE CFUUFS XIZ UIF KJIBEJTU NPWFNFOU JT JOUFSOBUJPOBM the multinational constitution of the Taliban BSNZ FYQMBJOT UIF JOUFSOBUJPOBM EJNFOTJPO PG KJIBEJTN UPEBZ 8IFO UIF KJIBEJTUT SFUVSO UP UIFJS DPVOUSJFT "MHFSJB -JCZB .PSPDDP FUD UIFZ BSF PQQPTFE UP UIF 8FTUFSO QSBDUJDFT NPEFSO $ISJTUJBO PS +FXJTI UIBU BSF UPMFSBUFE JO UIFJS DPVOUSJFT PG CJSUI CVU BSF OPU DPNQBUJCMF XJUI GVOEBNFOUBM *TMBNJD NPSBMJUZ BOE SVMFT UIF NBOZ UFSSPSJTU BUUBDLT JO .VTMJN DPVOUSJFT DBO UIVT CF FYQMBJOFE A part of the Taliban religious army has SFNBJOFE JO "GHIBOJTUBO XIJDI BQQFBST through this army to be a country that is PVUTJEF BOZ DPOUSPM JODMVEJOH UIBU PG UIF Saudi State. The analysis of international terrorism JT EJóDVMU BT JU NBOJGFTUT JUTFMG UISPVHI

religious rivalry between moderates BOE GVOEBNFOUBMJTUT CFUXFFO 4IJB BOE 4VOOJ̓ .VTMJNT B QPMJUJDBM SJWBMSZ TIPVME XF attempt to weaken the link between Saudi "SBCJB BOE UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT BOE B TUSVHHMF BHBJOTU "NFSJDBO FDPOPNJD JNQFSJBMJTN etc. 4UBZJOH XJUI UIF .JEEMF &BTU XJUI UIF BJN PG TIPXJOH UIF HBQ CFUXFFO PCKFDUJWF DPOøJDUT̓ BOE PUIFS NPSF TVCKFDUJWF POFT but also to underline the international öOBODJBM̓TUBLFT BOE UIF SPMF PG NVMUJOBUJPOBMT MFU VT UBLF B MPPL BU UIF DBTF PG *SBL 5IF XBS JO *SBL XBT CPUI TIPSU o B GFX NPOUIT̓ o BOE MPOH JG XF UBLF JOUP BDDPVOU UIF withdrawal of American troops that began JO̓%FDFNCFS̓ 5IFSF BSF PóDJBM SFBTPOT GPS̓ UIJT XBS UIF UFSSPSJTU EBOHFS *SBL XBT TFFO BT BO BMMZ PG "M 2BJEB QPMJUJDT XJUI UIF̓ #BBT̓ QBSUZ UIBU XBT CMBNFE GPS UIF situation; human rights; the presence of XFBQPOT PG NBTT EFTUSVDUJPO )PXFWFS RVFTUJPOT SFNBJO BCPVU UIF SFBM NPUJWBUJPOT GPS NJMJUBSZ JOUFSWFOUJPO *G XF SFGFS UP 1FUFS %BMF 4DPUU UIFSF JT B MJOL CFUXFFO UIF DPOTFSWBUJWFT who were in power in the United States and UIF PJM QSPEVDJOH FOUFSQSJTFT 5IF )BMMJCVSUPO HSPVQ IBE GPS FYBNQMF %JDL $IFOFZ PO JUT CPBSE XIP XBT JO HPWFSONFOU BU UIF UJNF There are links between the government and the big American oil enterprises. This is also true in a certain number of enterprises sub-contracted to the army. A year before UIF EFDMBSBUJPO PG UIF XBS PòFST UP UFOEFS were sent out to the international logistic NJMJFV GPS UIF SFDPOTUSVDUJPO PG *SBL 8F LOPX today that the weapons of mass destruction OFWFS FYJTUFE BOE UIBU QPMJUJDJBOT o ( #VTI BOE 5 ̓ #MBJS o VTFE JOUFSOBUJPOBM NFEJB UP manipulate public opinion.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

2.2.2. Analysis of Conflict Risk * XJMM UBLF B MPPL BU GPVS JOEFYFT XIJMF JHOPSJOH UIF )VNBO %FWFMPQNFOU *OEFY )%* BOE UIF $PSSVQUJPOT 1FSDFQUJPO *OEFY $1* UIBU BSF VTVBMMZ VTFE 5IF #FSUMFTNBOO 5SBOTGPSNBUJPO *OEFY #5* JT UIF DMBTTJĂśDBUJPO PG EFWFMPQJOH or transition countries according to three BYFT EFNPDSBDZ NBSLFU FDPOPNZ BOE QVCMJD NBOBHFNFOU 5IF JOEFY BMMPXT VT to take an economic approach and takes into account the country’s integration into international trade; 5IF 1FBDF BOE $POøJDU *OTUBCJMJUZ *OEFY 5IF $FOUSF GPS *OUFSOBUJPOBM %FWFMPQNFOU BOE $POøJDU .BOBHFNFOU $*%$.

Table

– University of Maryland – evaluates the QPUFOUJBM JOTUBCJMJUZ PG FBDI DPVOUSZ B ratio calculated in relation to the average QSPCBCJMJUZ PG UIF DPVOUSJFT JO UIF 0&$% which are considered stable. 0WFS UIF QFSJPE UIF BWFSBHF JOTUBCJMJUZ SJTL GPS UIF 0&$% JT JO #PMJWJB GPS FYBNQMF UIF SJTL JT UIF JEFOUJÜFE SBUJP JT 5IF SJTL PG JOTUBCJMJUZ JO #PMJWJB JT UIVT i w UJNFT higher than the OECD average. Five factors are taken into account when evaluating the SJTL JOTUJUVUJPOBM IPNPHFOFJUZ FDPOPNJD PQFOOFTT UIF JOGBOU NPSUBMJUZ SBUF UIF militarisation of the country and regional environment;

15 Conflict Risk According to the University of Maryland

FactorÂ

DomainÂ

DescriptionÂ

Institutional homogeneityÂ

PoliticalÂ

Quality of relations between  institutions: democratic or autocratic?   => more or less high risk of destabilisationÂ

Economic opennessÂ

EconomicÂ

Taking into account of the country’s integration into the world economy: high level of openness  low instabilityÂ

High infant mortality rateÂ

Economic and  socialÂ

Indicator of the quality of development and social progress: Correlation between infant mortality and political instabilityÂ

MilitarisationÂ

SecurityÂ

Risk according to the potential sources of conflict and degree of militarisation (= accessibility of  arms, availability of weapons) Â

Regional environmentÂ

Political security  Â

Presence of conflicts in the region => risk of instability (ethnic influence, trafficking, etc.)

Source: Constructed following Jacquinot’s example (2012).

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

5IF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG )FJEFMCFSH JT B SFGFSFODF JO DPOøJDU BOBMZTJT *U JT JOUFSFTUFE JO UIF intensity of the conflict and the range of players according to a theoretical breaking EPXO PG UIF DPOøJDU BOE JUT JOUFOTJUZ XJUI B NPOUIMZ BOE SFHJPOBM FWBMVBUJPO JEFOUJĂśDBUJPO PG UXP UZQFT PG DPOøJDU with or without violence; of three levels of intensity for violent conflicts (violent DSJTJT MJNJUFE XBS BOE XBS BOE UXP JO UIF absence of violence. We can complete this BQQSPBDI XJUI EBUB BCPVU NJMJUBSZ CVEHFU the number of international missions and UIF QSFTTVSF JOEFY UIF EJTQMBDFE SFGVHFF ratio of the total population). -FU VT TFF B GFX FYBNQMFT *O #FMHJVN UIFSF JT B QPMJUJDBM DPOøJDU between on the one side “Dutchâ€? Flemish #FMHJVN BOE PO UIF PUIFS i'SFODIw 8BMMPPO #FMHJVN *U JT BO VOBSNFE DPOøJDU CVU POF which blocks the political situation – a MFWFM̓ DPOøJDU #FUXFFO 5IBJMBOE BOE $BNCPEJB B DPOøJDU over the drawing up of borders around the 1SFBI 7JIFBS UFNQMF o MFWFM UISFF 5IF DPOøJDU JO &HZQU DPOTUJUVUFT B MFWFM DPOøJDU UIF POF JO 4ZSJB JT MFWFM 5IF (MPCBM 1FBDF *OEFY (1* JOEJDBUFT UIF EFHSFF PG QFBDF JO DPVOUSJFT *U JT DBMDVMBUFE GSPN UIF )%* JO SFMBUJPO UP UIF QBSU PG NJMJUBSZ FYQFOEJUVSF JO UIF (/1 B MPX JOEFY TJHOJĂśFT B QFBDFGVM DPVOUSZ B IJHI JOEFY JT B TJHO PG JOUFOTF DPOøJDU &MFNFOUT TVDI BT UIF EFHSFF PG DPOøJDU UIF DSJNF SBUF FUD NBZ DPNQMFUF UIJT information. *O UIF DBTF PG UIF "TJBO [POF JO 7JĚ?U /BN BQQFBST BT B QFBDFGVM DPVOUSZ XIJMF 5IBJMBOE JT NPSF DPOøJDUVBM o UFOTJPOT XJUI $BNCPEJB CJHHFS POFT XJUI .BMBZTJB TLJSNJTIFT XJUI

UIF ,BSFO QFPQMF BOE XJUI .ZBONBS 5IF JOEFY UBLFT JOUP BDDPVOU QPMJUJDBM UFOTJPOT that might take the form of internal or armed conflicts.

2.2.3. Country Risk Global Risks 2012 (MPCBM 3JTLT JT B SFDFOU RVBMJUBUJWF BQQSPBDI *U JT B TVSWFZ DBSSJFE PVU BNPOH JOUFS OBUJPOBM̓ FYQFSUT JO PSEFS UP HBUIFS UIFJS QFSDFQUJPO PG SJTL UP HJWF B QBOPSBNB PG risks according to their probability and their QFSDFJWFE JNQBDU 'SPN UIJT TVSWFZ TPNF SJTLT BQQFBS UIF EZTUPQJB SJTL SFWFSTFE EFWFMPQNFOU UIF JOFĂłDJFODZ PG QSPUFDUJPO NFBTVSFT DZCFS UISFBUT JOGPSNBUJPO CSFBLEPXO CVU BMTP VOGPSFTFFBCMF SJTL FYBNQMF PG UIF "SBC 4QSJOH FQJHFOFUJDT (modification of the genetic code). The challenge lies in demonstrating the interconnection of risks and the “hubsâ€? UIBU UIJT HFOFSBUFT TVDI BT QSPCMFNT PG HPWFSOBODF PS DMJNBUF DIBOHF GPS FYBNQMF Traditional Rating Agencies The current trend is a global approach to FWBMVBUJPO XJUI TVNNBSZ JOGPSNBUJPO GPS BMM SJTLT UIJT MFBET UP UIF JNQMFNFOUBUJPO of rating and ranking by credit-insurance groups and by specialised agencies – the PMEFTU POFT BSF .PPEZ T 4UBOEBSE 1PPS T and Fitch. Moody’s was created at the end of the th century; the two others are more recent. 5IF SBUJOH TZTUFN JT BMXBZT HMPCBMMZ UIF TBNF it is the criteria and the breaking down of UIF TZTUFN UIBU WBSZ 5IF SBUJOHT BSF TJNJMBS i"""w GPS FYDFMMFOU i"w QPVS HPPE i$w GPS DSJUJDBM i%w GPS CBE 5IF RVBOUJUBUJWF DSJUFSJB BSF

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

USBEJUJPOBM (/1 HSPXUI SBUF VOFNQMPZNFOU SBUF FUD RVBMJUBUJWF DSJUFSJB JT BMTP JOUFHSBUFE XFJHIU PG CVSFBVDSBDZ SFMBUJPO 4UBUF $FOUSBM #BOL FUD 3FTVMUT NBZ WBSZ GSPN POF BHFODZ UP BOPUIFS 0SJHJOBMMZ UIFTF BHFODJFT DBSSJFE out enterprise ratings – which remains the IFBSU PG UIFJS KPC o CVU TJODF UIF NJE FJHIUJFT they have moved to country ratings. The approach is a lot more macroeconomic. The agencies may be wrong in their proposed findings. One of them was recently pursued by Australian cities because their ratings were erroneous. The agencies do not give the details of their calculations (the right UP UIF TVCKFDUJWJUZ PG UIFJS SBUJOH 'JOBMMZ UIF enterprises live from the sale of information. 5IF TJUVBUJPO PG B RVBTJ QSJWBUF NPOPQPMZ PG a (public) country evaluation has given rise to much debate about their role. "T XFMM BT UIFTF SBUJOH BHFODJFT UIFSF FYJTU other structures that propose ratings. The Euler Hermes Rating &VMFS )FSNFT JT UIF XPSME T MFBEJOH DSFEJU JOTVSBODF BHFODZ *U QSPQPTFT B DMBTTJDBMMZ TUSVDUVSFE SBUJOH CBTFE PO TJY QPTTJCMF SBUJOHT GSPN "" UP % (MPCBM SJTL BQQSFDJBUJPO includes finance vulnerability and where in the cycle we are. The final rating takes into account both the structural rating and the risk level rating. The COFACE Rating COFACE takes into account five types of SBUJOH UIBU BSF BJNFE BU FOUFSQSJTFT DSFEJU defaults) and macroeconomic data (country SBUJOH TFDUPSBM CVTJOFTT FOWJSPONFOU *O UIF SBUJOHT PG DPVOUSJFT TFWFO SBUJOHT BSF QSPQPTFE BMXBZT VTJOH UIF TBNF TZTUFN GSPN i" # $ BOE %w CVU BU UIF TBNF UJNF

including a macroeconomic dimension QPMJUJDT FDPOPNZ FOWJSPONFOU 5IF TFDUPSBM SBUJOH JT QBSUJDVMBSMZ JOUFSFTUJOH GPS B HJWFO TFDUPS PG BDUJWJUJFT UFO MFWFMT are identified in order to specify the global macroeconomic data of the country. There BMTP FYJTUT BO FWBMVBUJPO GPS XPSME TFDUPSBM SJTL but also by country and with an evolution of sectoral rating. #VTJOFTT FOWJSPONFOU EFBMT XJUI UIF SFMJBCJMJUZ̓ PG EBUB ĂśSNT MFHBM BTQFDUT FUD with seven possible ratings. 'JOBMMZ PUIFS PSHBOJTNT QSPQPTF SBUJOHT MFU VT NFOUJPO GPS FYBNQMF %VDSPJSF UIF 8PSME #BOL %PJOH #VTJOFTT *OEFY BOE UIF 0&$% A concrete implementation of country application is proposed in order to estimate the interest of investing in a hotel chain. The exercise deals with Thailand, Brazil, Spain, Morocco and Turkey. The workshop is divided into four groups working on each country. An oral presentation is programmed for the next day.

Day 2, Tuesday 23rd [Yves Perraudeau] :PV XFOU CFZPOE UIF TJNQMF SBUJOH JOEJ DBUPST ̓ UIJT JT XIBU * FYQFDUFE PG ZPV 5IF FYFSDJTF DPODFSOFE B DIBJO PG IPUFMT XJUI UPVSJTUJD BDUJWJUJFT XF IBWF UP BTL RVFTUJPOT BCPVU UIFTF BDUJWJUJFT BOE BCPVU the conditions they impose. Many of you SBJTFE UIF RVFTUJPO PG HFPHSBQIJDBM QPTJUJPO BOE DVMUVSBM JOUFSFTU BT XFMM BT FYQPTVSF JO̓ SFMBUJPO̓ UP XBUFS BOE UIF DPBTUMJOF this aspect is always present in “touricityâ€? DSJUFSJB FWFO JO JOMBOE EFTUJOBUJPOT

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

As well as the geographic and cultural QPTJUJPO UIFSF BSF TPNF HFOFSBM BTQFDUT UIBU ZPV NVTU JOUSPEVDF TVDI BT UIF (/1 QFS DBQJUB XIJDI HJWFT BO JEFB PG UIF DPVOUSZ T development. This criterion indeed conceals the disparities that influence investments oอ 4QBJO IBT B (/1 JO UIF SFHJPO PG 64% QFS BOOVN 5IBJMBOE BOE #SB[JM 64% UP 64% QFS BOOVN BOE .PSPDDP CFMPX 64% QFS BOOVN 5IFSF BMTP FYJTU HSFBU EJTQBSJUJFT DPODFSOJOH BDDFTT UP XBUFS XIJDI JT B DSVDJBM DIBMMFOHF GPS UIF DPNJOH ZFBST o JO 4QBJO UIFSF JT NVDI DPNQFUJUJPO XJUI BHSJDVMUVSF UIF OPSUI PG .PSPDDP TVรฒFST GSPN EJรณDVMUJFT JO BDDFTTJOH XBUFS IPXFWFS UIF TJUVBUJPO JO 5IBJMBOE BOE #SB[JM JT CFUUFS 8IFO MPPLJOH BU JTTVFT PG QPMJUJDBM TUBCJMJUZ XFอ NVTU UBLF UXP GBDUPST JOUP BDDPVOU domestic ones and those concerning neighbouring countries โ the case of .PSPDDP XIJDI JT JOUFSOBMMZ TUBCMF CVU IBT DPOรธJDUT XJUI JUT OFJHICPVST "MHFSJB BOE UIF Western Sahara. Environmental considerations are also GVOEBNFOUBM รธPPEJOH FBSUIRVBLFT SJTF JO TFB MFWFMT o UIF DBTF PG 5VSLFZ FBSUIRVBLFT [Thomas Vallรฉe] :PV TIPVME IBWF HJWFO B NPSF HMPCBM presentation of the state of the tourist JOEVTUSZ UIF DPNQFUJUJPO JO SFMBUJPO UP OFJHICPVSJOH DPVOUSJFT FUD 4QBJO JT TVรฒFSJOH GSPN CBOLSVQUDJFT CVU UIFSF BMTP FYJTU opportunities to buy out enterprises at a low QSJDF 'JOBMMZ XF NVTU DPNQBSF ZFBST JO PSEFS to see the evolution of indicators and learn the relevant lesson.

[Yves Perraudeau] 5P DPODMVEF UIJT QBSU ZPV OFFE UP LOPX UIBU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG UIF 6OJUFE /BUJPOT IBT CFFO QSPQPTJOH TJODF UIF 8PSME 3JTL *OEFY 83* JOEJDBUPS XIJDI FODPNQBTTFT FYQPTVSF UP FOWJSPONFOUBM SJTL UIF QSFEJTQPTJUJPO PG JOGSBTUSVDUVSFT UIF QPQVMBUJPO T DBQBDJUZ UP BEBQU BOE JUT DBQBDJUZ UP EFBM XJUI QSPCMFNT The sum of these four elements determines WVMOFSBCJMJUZ 5IF DBTF PG )PMMBOE PO UIF POF IBOE BOE PG 7Jฬ U /BN BOE $BNCPEJB PO UIF PUIFS XIJDI BSF BMM FYQPTFE UP SJTJOH TFB MFWFMT JMMVTUSBUFT BMM UPP XFMM UIF JOUFSFTU PG UIJT JOEJDBUPS XIJDI JT UIF POMZ POF UIBU JOUSPEVDFT FYQPTVSF UP SJTL BOE UIF รถOBM vulnerability at the same time.

2.2.4. Risks and Globalisation [Phแบกm Thแป Hแป ng Hแบกnh] My intervention involves the relationship between economic globalisation and SJTLT XJUI UISFF TVC QBSUT UIF EFรถOJUJPO of economic integration; the relationship CFUXFFO FDPOPNJD JOUFHSBUJPO BOE JOFRVB MJUJFT JO SFWFOVF QPWFSUZ BOE DSJTFT UIF JNQBDU PG BDDFTTJPO UP 850 GPS "TJBO DPVOUSJFT BOE QBSUJDVMBSMZ 7Jฬ U /BN 5IF TFDPOE QBSU XJMM concern the impacts on the political and economic aspects of a country. Globalisation and Risks (MPCBMJTBUJPO JT B NVMUJEJNFOTJPOBM OPUJPO JUอ DPODFSOT UIF FDPOPNZ DVMUVSF QPMJUJDT BOE people. The term โ integrationโ tends to only EFTJHOBUF UIF FDPOPNJD EJNFOTJPO XIJMF UIF UFSN iHMPCBMJTBUJPOw EFTJHOBUFT QPMJUJDBM social and cultural globalisation. Commercial integration โ or international USBEF o JT BEESFTTFE JO UISFF EJรฒFSFOU

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

FDPOPNJD UIFPSJFT 3JDBSEP )FDLTIFS 0IMJO 4BNVFMTPO )04 BOE ,SVHNBO - Ricardo developed a model of two DPVOUSJFT o MFU VT UBLF UIF FYBNQMF PG 7J̏U /BN BOE 4PVUI ,PSFB o BOE PG UXP TFDUPST UIF UFYUJMF BOE DBS JOEVTUSJFT *O UIF TJUVBUJPO PG B DMPTFE FDPOPNZ QSPEVDUJPO JT OBUJPOBM IBWJOH BO PQFO FDPOPNZ 4PVUI ,PSFB IBT BCTPMVUF BEWBOUBHFT JO the two sectors (according to the theory of 4NJUI "DDPSEJOH UP UIF UIFPSZ PG 3JDBSEP 7J̏U̓/BN IBT B DPNQBSBUJWF BEWBOUBHF GPS UFYUJMFT BOE 4PVUI ,PSFB GPS DBST *O UIJT DBTF 4PVUI ,PSFB BOE 7J̏U /BN TQFDJBMJTF JO DBST BOE UFYUJMFT SFTQFDUJWFMZ #PUI DPVOUSJFT FYDIBOHF BOE CFOFöU GSPN JOUFSOBUJPOBM FYDIBOHFT *O UIF )04 NPEFM PUIFS BTQFDUT PG JOUFSOBUJPOBM USBEF BSF BOBMZTFE )FDLTIFS 0IMJO 4BNVFMTPO )04 EFWFMPQFE B GVODUJPO PG QSPEVDUJPO XJUI UISFF GBDUPST capital (K MBCPVS L) and land (T). For FYBNQMF 7J̏U /BN IBT BO BCVOEBODF PG MBCPVS *U TIPVME UIFO TQFDJBMJTF JO industries that demand labour such as the UFYUJMF JOEVTUSZ - The new geographical economy of 1 ̓ ,SVHNBO JT OPU EJSFDUMZ JOUFSFTUFE JO JOUFSOBUJPOBM USBEF CVU TFWFSBM FDPOPNJTUT have used it to deal with international trade. Nguyễn Tú The globalisation and specialisation of each country is not a specific characteristic of UIFJS SFDFOU JOUFSOBUJPOBM PQFOJOH VQ *O UIF QBTU $IJOB GPS FYBNQMF TQFDJBMJTFE JO TJML QSPEVDUJPO BOE DFSBNJDT BOE FYQPSUFE to other continents. Well before modern HMPCBMJTBUJPO UIJT USBEF BMSFBEZ FYJTUFE We must distinguish between ancient FDPOPNJD FYDIBOHFT BOE UIPTF UIBU

FYJTU UPEBZ *T JU OPU OFDFTTBSZ UP FYBNJOF BHSFFNFOUT TVDI BT UIPTF PG UIF (FOFSBM "HSFFNFOU PO 5BSJòT BOE 5SBEF ("55 UP VOEFSTUBOE HMPCBMJTBUJPO [Phạm Thị Hồng Hạnh] -FU VT OPU DPOGVTF UIFPSZ BOE QSBDUJDF 8F̓BSF QSFTFOUJOH IFSF B UIFPSFUJDBM CBTF XF XJMM UIFO HFU CBDL UP UIF ("55 BOE UIF 850 [Thomas Vallée] 5IF 850 KVTUJöFT JUT FYJTUFODF UISPVHI UIF UIFPSJFT PG 3JDBSEP BOE )04 'PS UIF GPSNFS UIF JEFB JT UIBU UIF XPSME HBJOT CZ QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO FYDIBOHFT GPS UIF MBUUFS the law of one-price states that if everyone TQFDJBMJTFT BOE FYDIBOHFT UIF QSJDF PG UIF GBDUPST XJMM FRVBMJTF̓ BOE BT B SFTVMU PG UIBU TUBOEBSET PG MJWJOH XJMM BMTP DPOWFSHF *O UIFPSZ JOFRVBMJUJFT CFUXFFO DPVOUSJFT TIPVME EJNJOJTI XIJDI EPFT OPU QSFWFOU JOFRVBMJUJFT within a country from increasing depending on whether people work in the sector where there is international specialisation or not. The problem is that specialisations fluctuate BDDPSEJOH UP XPSME EFNBOE UIFSF NBZ CF BU B HJWFO NPNFOU HPPE TQFDJBMJTBUJPO BOE convergence and at another moment we öOE PVSTFMWFT JO B TJUVBUJPO PG JOBEFRVBUF TQFDJBMJTBUJPO o UIF FYBNQMF PG QSJNBSZ goods. [Yves Perraudeau] *O UIJT QSFDJTF DBTF XF TQFBL BCPVU UIF OPO neutrality of the specialisation in time that is linked to the evolution of technologies. [Phạm Thị Hồng Hạnh] )PX DBO XF NFBTVSF UIF EFHSFF PG DPNNFSDJBM PQFOOFTT PG B DPVOUSZ 5XP

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

HSPVQT PG JOEJDBUPST NVTU CF JEFOUJĂśFE UIF “de jureâ€? indicators and the “de factoâ€? ones. The most well known and most used de jure indicator in all empirical studies is the SW indicator – developed by Sachs and Warner in 5IJT JOEJDBUPS VTFT B CJOBSZ WBSJBCMF i w JG UIF FDPOPNZ JT DMPTFE i w JG UIF FDPOPNZ JT PQFO JT BO FYUSFNF DBTF GPS FYBNQMF /PSUI ,PSFB *O PSEFS UP DPOTUSVDU UIJT JOEJDBUPS ĂśWF̓DSJUFSJB BSF VTFE "WFSBHF UBYFT PG NPSF UIBO /PO UBSJò CBSSJFST UIBU DPODFSO NPSF UIBO PG USBEF

Graph

&YDIBOHF SBUFT PO UIF CMBDL NBSLFU UIBU XFSF PO BWFSBHF BU MFBTU MPXFS UIBO UIF PĂłDJBM FYDIBOHF SBUF EVSJOH UIF T BOE T 4UBUF NPOPQPMZ PG QSJODJQBM FYQPSUT - Socialist economic system. The most widely used de facto indicator JT UIF̓ 5SBEF 0QFOOFTT *OEJDBUPS UIBU JT measured by the relationship of total imports BOE FYQPSUT JO UIF (%1 Exports+Imports/GDP (%) 0O UIJT HSBQI UIF TIBSF PG FYQPSUT JO (%1 JT represented.

26 Growth in Volume of World Merchandise Trade and GDP, 2000-2011

(Annual Percentage Change)Â

Source: WTO Secretariat.

'SPN FWFSZ DPVOUSZ JT BòFDUFE CZ the financial crisis that originated in the 6OJUFE̓ 4UBUFT 8F DBO SFNBSL UIBU FYQPSUT

QMBZ B NBKPS TVQQPSUJOH SPMF JO XPSME economic growth.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 21 Noodle Bowl of Bilateral Trade Agreements in Asia-Pacific

Source: Adopted from the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAPE).

We can also measure the degree of economic openness by the number of bilateral BHSFFNFOUT CFUXFFO DPVOUSJFT B SFHJPO and the rest of the world. This diagram

summarises all the trade agreements between sub-regions in Pacific-Asia. There is strong integration.

Diagram 22 Structural Change in Asian Trade

Source: Asian Development Bank.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

8F DBO DMFBSMZ TFF UIBU CFUXFFO BOE UIFSF XBT B TUSVDUVSBM DIBOHF JO USBEF รธPXT o GSPN +BQBO UPXBSET $IJOB *O SFBMJUZ China became the biggest international trade JNQPSUT BOE FYQPSUT QBSUOFS JO BMM SFHJPOT PG the world. Another aspect of economic openness is the financial openness that is developed in UIF UISFF UIFPSJFT PG 4DIVNQFUFS JO 3PCJOTPO JO BOE .D,JOOPO BOE 4IBX JO 5IF UISFF BOBMZTFT GPDVT PO UIF importance of the financial system in economic HSPXUI 'PS 4DIVNQFUFS UIF SFMBUJPOTIJQ between finance and economic growth is JOรธVFODFE CZ UFDIOJDBM QSPHSFTT รถOBODF JT UIF TPVSDF PG UFDIOJDBM QSPHSFTT XIJDI JO UVSO JT UIF TPVSDF PG FDPOPNJD HSPXUI 3PCJOTPO PO UIF PUIFS IBOE FYQMBJOFE UIF relationship between economic growth and รถOBODJBM EFWFMPQNFOU JO UIF PUIFS TFOTF once a country has reached a certain level PG HSPXUI B EFNBOE GPS รถOBODJBM TFSWJDFT thus arises. These two theories highlight a bi-directional relationship between finance BOE FDPOPNJD HSPXUI 'JOBMMZ .D,JOOPO BOE Shawโ s theory corresponds to the school of รถOBODJBM MJCFSBMJTBUJPO B SFBM QPTJUJWF BOE IJHI JOUFSFTU SBUF IBT B QPTJUJWF FรฒFDU PO TBWJOHT BOE JOWFTUNFOU BOE DPOTFRVFOUMZ GBWPVST long-term economic growth. Financial liberalisation implies a liberalisation of interest SBUFT PO UIF EPNFTUJD NBSLFU BOE รถOBODJBM globalisation corresponds to the liberalisation PG JOUFSFTU SBUFT PG USBOTGFS PG DBQJUBM BOE PG UIF FYDIBOHF SBUF TZTUFN รธPBUJOH FYDIBOHF rate system). The first de jure indicators were developed in CZ $IJOO BOE *UP o ,"01&/ *OEFY *U JT EFรถOFE GPS BCPVU DPVOUSJFT UIF EBUBCBTF

is consultable free of charge. The value is calculated by basing oneself on four principal WBSJBCMFT 5IF QSFTFODF PG NVMUJQMF FYDIBOHF SBUFT "O FOUFSQSJTF UIBU FYQPSUT BQQMJFT B UZQF PG FYDIBOHF SBUF UIBU JT EJรฒFSFOU GSPN BO FOUFSQSJTF UIBU JNQPSUT UIF FYDIBOHF SBUF GPS HPPET JT EJรฒFSFOU GSPN UIBU PG TFSWJDFT - Restrictions on current account transactions; - Restrictions on capital transactions; - State controls concern the division of QSPรถUT GSPN FYQPSU FOUFSQSJTFT *O GPS FYBNQMF UIF PQFOJOH JOEFY JO UFSNT PG รถOBODJBM JOUFHSBUJPO XBT GPS 7Jฬ Uอ /BN BOE GPS $IJOB 5IF IJHIFS UIF WBMVF UIF NPSF PQFO UIF DPVOUSZ The second indicator of financial openness XBT EFWFMPQFE JO CZ UIF FDPOPNJTUT "CJBE BOE .PEZ *U JT MFTT VTFE UIBO FNQJSJDBM TUVEJFT *UT WBMVF WBSJFT GSPN UPUBMMZ DMPTFE UP UPUBMMZ PQFO JO รถOBODJBM UFSNT o OP DPVOUSZ IBT POF PG UIFTF FYUSFNF WBMVFT Concerning the de facto JOEJDBUPST -BOF BOE .JMFTJ 'FSSJUJ NFBTVSF JOUFHSBUJPO CZ UIF sum of goods and foreign assets divided by a DPVOUSZ T (%1 "O JOEJDBUPS JT UIF SFMBUJPOTIJQ CFUXFFO GPSFJHO EJSFDU JOWFTUNFOU '%* BOE (%1 8F DBO EJTUJOHVJTI IPSJ[POUBM '%*T GPS FYBNQMF B 'SFODI FOUFSQSJTF SFMPDBUFT UP 7Jฬ U /BN QSPEVDFT B NPUPSCJLF BOE SF FYQPSUT it to another country) and vertical ones (for FYBNQMF B 'SFODI FOUFSQSJTF SFMPDBUFT UP 7Jฬ U /BN BOE QSPEVDFT BOE TFMMT PO UIF Vietnamese market). 5IFTF HSBQIT TQFDJGZ UIF TJUVBUJPO PG '%*T JO the world.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

Graph

27 FDI Inflows, Global and by Group of Economies, 1995-2011

(Billions of dollars)Â

Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD).

The graph shows the classification of DPVOUSJFT EJWJEFE JOUP GPVS HSPVQT o̓EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT DPVOUSJFT JO USBOTJUJPO developed countries and emerging ones. 'PS TPNF ZFBST UIF TIBSF PG EFWFMPQFE

Graph

DPVOUSJFT BOE EFWFMPQJOH POFT JT FRVJWBMFOU developing countries have become an JNQPSUBOU EFTUJOBUJPO GPS '%*T 8F DBO UIFO MPPL BU UIF EJWJTJPO PG '%*T BDDPSEJOH UP UIFJS sector.

28 Value of Cross-border M&As and Greenfield FDI Projects Worldwide, 2007-2011

Source: UNCTAD (www.fDimarkets.com).

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

*O QSBDUJDF XF DBO EJTUJOHVJTI CFUXFFO i.FSHFS BOE "DRVJTJUJPOw . " '%*T BOE i(SFFOĂśFMEw POFT 8IBU JT UIF EJòFSFODF -FU VT UBLF UIF FYBNQMF PG UIF . " '%*T *O CFDBVTF PG UIF DSJTJT B 7JFUOBNFTF enterprise “Aâ€? goes bankrupt and is bought PVU CZ B 'SFODI FOUFSQSJTF UIF NBOBHFNFOU PG UIF FOUFSQSJTF DIBOHFT CVU UIF QSPEVDUT and place of manufacture remain the same. 'PS i(SFFOĂśFMEw '%*T JO B +BQBOFTF enterprise Canon decides to produce in 7JĚ?U̓ /BN UIFZ QSPEVDF UIF TBNF PSJHJOBM product but the place of manufacture has changed.

Graph

Udom Kom )PX DBO XF EFĂśOF '%*T *T JU POMZ GPSFJHO FOUFSQSJTFT UIBU JOWFTU [Phấm Tháť‹ Háť“ng Hấnh] They are direct investment by foreign HSPVQT UIBU SFMPDBUF BOE CSJOH UIFJS DBQJUBM creating their enterprise in a foreign country. $POWFSTFMZ QPSUGPMJP JOWFTUNFOUT BSF UIF purchase of the financial securities of enterprises. 'PS '%*T XF BMTP VTF UIF i5SBOTOBUJPOBM $PPQFSBUJPOw 5/$ JOEFY UIBU QSPQPTFT B classification of countries.

29 TNC’s Top Prospective Host Economies for 2012-2014 (Percentage of respondents selecting economy as a top destination)Â

Source: UNCTAD Survey (based on 174 validated company responses).

Nguyáť…n TrĂ­ ThĂ´ng

[Thomas VallĂŠe]

8IBU JT UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO i5SBOT national Cooperationâ€? and “Multinational $PPQFSBUJPOw

*O TJNQMF UFSNT B NVMUJOBUJPOBM JT BO enterprise that has a subsidiary abroad. The 6OJUFE /BUJPOT $POGFSFODF PO 5SBEF BOE

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

%FWFMPQNFOU 6/$5"% DSFBUFE JUT PXO indicator of trans nationality. Three criteria are VTFE UP EFรถOF B USBOTOBUJPOBM รถSN UIF TIBSF PG UVSOPWFS BCSPBE UIF OVNCFS PG FNQMPZFFT in the foreign branches and the share of capital outside the national territory. Udom Kom Can we consider an enterprise to be NVMUJOBUJPOBM JG JU JT VOJRVFMZ DPNQPTFE PG TVCTJEJBSZ HSPVQT

Table

[Thomas Vallรฉe] 5IJT SBJTFT UIF RVFTUJPO PG UIF BUUBDINFOU PG BรณMJBUFE FOUFSQSJTFT o IPMEJOH UP PG DBQJUBM o UIBU NBZ CF EJรณDVMU UP BUUBDI UP a particular enterprise โ this is particularly UIF DBTF PG KPJOU WFOUVSFT 5IFZ BSF OPU UIF subsidiary of any one enterprise but are BรณMJBUFE UP BMM [Phแบกm Thแป Hแป ng Hแบกnh] )PX DBO XF NFBTVSF UIF TPDJBM BOE QPMJUJDBM EJNFOTJPO PG HMPCBMJTBUJPO ,0' JT B HFOFSBM indicator to measure a countryโ s level of globalisation.

16 KOF Indicator

Source: Dreher et al. (2008).

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

5IF ,0' JOEFY UBLFT JOUP BDDPVOU UIF EJòFSFOU BTQFDUT PG HMPCBMJTBUJPO FDPOPNJD TPDJBM BOE political. The economic component accounts GPS PG HFOFSBM HMPCBMJTBUJPO UIF TPDJBM QBSU BOE UIF QPMJUJDBM QBSU POMZ 'PS FYBNQMF JO DPVOUSZ DMBTTJöDBUJPO showed that developed countries are at the top of the table. Singapore is in first place for the economic dimension; but if we consider

Table

UIF TPDJBM BOE FDPOPNJD DPNQPOFOUT UIF City-State is only in fifth place. Globalisation and Inequalities in Revenue -FU NF OPX HJWF ZPV TPNF JOEJDBUPST UP NFBTVSF JOFRVBMJUJFT JO JODPNF - Functional distribution.

17 Typical Size Distribution of Personal Income in a Developing Country by Income Share Quintiles and Deciles

Source: Todaro and Smith (2011).

We class the inhabitants according to their JODPNF JO JODSFBTJOH PSEFS 5IF RVJOUJMFT are the first five inhabitants; the deciles correspond to the first two inhabitants. 'PS UIF öSTU RVJOUJMF XF TBZ UIBU UIF öSTU

JOIBCJUBOUT QPTTFTT PG UPUBM JODPNF UIF öWF SJDIFTU JOIBCJUBOUT QPTTFTT 0O UIF DPOUSBSZ UIF öWF QPPSFTU JOIBCJUBOUT QPTTFTT POMZ PG UPUBM JODPNF

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

5IF -PSFO[ DVSWF

Graph

30 The Lorenz Curve

Source: Todaro and Smith (2011).

0O UIJT HSBQI UIF MJOF SFQSFTFOUT QFSGFDU FRVBMJUZ 5IF GVSUIFS B DPVOUSZ JT GSPN UIF DVSWF UIF NPSF VOFRVBM JU JT JO UFSNT PG income; 5IF (JOJ DPFรณDJFOU

Graph

31 Estimating the Gini Coefficient

Source: Todaro and Smith (2011).

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

5IJT DPFĂłDJFOU JT EFWJTFE GSPN UIF -PSFO[ DVSWF QBSU " JT EJWJEFE CZ UIF QBSU # $ % 'JOBMMZ XF NFBTVSF JODPNF JOFRVBMJUZ by the functional distribution of income NFUIPE *O PSEFS UP QSPEVDF B HPPE PS B TFSWJDF UIFSF BSF BMXBZT UISFF GBDUPST PG QSPEVDUJPO DBQJUBM JOUFSFTU MBCPVS

Graph

TBMBSZ BOE MBOE SFOU *O UIJT DBTF IFSF we are interested in the distribution of income within a company according to the EJòFSFOU GBDUPST PG QSPEVDUJPO -FU VT FYBNJOF UIF FWPMVUJPO PG JOFRVBMJUJFT of income throughout the world.

32 Inequality at Different Levels. Within Inequality, Between Inequality, Global Inequality

Source: World Development Report 2006.

i8JUIJO JOFRVBMJUZw NFBTVSFT UIF JOFRVBMJUJFT XJUIJO B DPVOUSZ i#FUXFFO JOFRVBMJUZw NFBTVSFT JOFRVBMJUJFT CFUXFFO EJòFSFOU DPVOUSJFT BOE i(MPCBM JOFRVBMJUZw NFBTVSFT JODPNF JOFRVBMJUJFT CZ QFSTPO JO UIF XIPMF world. This graph shows the evolution PG UISFF EJòFSFOU NFBTVSFT PG JODPNF JOFRVBMJUZ 'SPN̓ UIF T JOFRVBMJUJFT have tended to slightly drop. This trend may CF FYQMBJOFE CZ UIF FòPSUT PG EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT QBSUJDVMBSMZ $IJOB BOE *OEJB UP SFEVDF JOFRVBMJUJFT BOE QPWFSUZ What is the relationship between interOBUJPOBM USBEF BOE JOFRVBMJUJFT )PX DBO

we analyse the relationship between USBEF BOE UIF (JOJ JOEFY 5IF OVNFSPVT theoretical and empirical works emphasise great ambiguity concerning the relationship CFUXFFO JOUFSOBUJPOBM USBEF BOE JOFRVBMJUZ Globalisation and Poverty Poverty is measured in economic terms. We have to distinguish between absolute and relative poverty. The former is used JO EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT iQPPS DPVOUSJFTi while the latter concerns more developed DPVOUSJFT 5IF 8PSME #BOL EFÜOFT BCTPMVUF poverty by the fact of living on less than

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

64%̓ QFS EBZ o CVU UIFSF BMTP UISFTIPMET PG̓ 64%̓ 64% BOE 64% Relative poverty is determined in relation to the value of the average income of a country – and if an individual has an income below

Box

B DFSUBJO QFSDFOUBHF PG UIJT WBMVF GPS FYBNQMF UIFO IF MJWFT JO QPWFSUZ 'PS BCTPMVUF QPWFSUZ UIF JOEJDBUPS i5PUBM 1PWFSUZ (BQw JT DBMDVMBUFE BT GPMMPXT

13 Measuring Absolute Poverty

- Headcount Index: H/N - Where ) is the number of persons who are poor and / is the total number of people in the economy - Total poverty gap: - Where :p is the absolute poverty line; and :i the income of the lth poor person

Graph

33 Measuring the Total Poverty Gap

Source: Todaro and Smith (2011).

Poverty is not only economic; it also includes social and human dimensions. The NVMUJEJNFOTJPOBM QPWFSUZ JOEFY .1* JT CVJMU PO UIF BWFSBHF WBMVF PG UISFF EJNFOTJPOT IFBMUI FEVDBUJPO BOE UIF FDPOPNZ The populations in a situation of absolute QPWFSUZ BSF NPTUMZ GPVOE JO 1BDJĂśD "TJB CVU

the evolution of the proportion shows that UIF SFHJPO JT FYQFSJFODJOH B SFEVDUJPO JO absolute poverty. 'JOBMMZ BHBJO UIF SFMBUJPOTIJQ CFUXFFO international trade and poverty is BNCJHVPVT JU NBZ CF QPTJUJWF PS OFHBUJWF and sometimes the relationship remains

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

undetermined – (Cashin et al 4BMB * .BSUJO 3BWBMMJPO Financial Globalisation and Income Inequalities The theory of endogenous growth allows VT UP FYQMBJO UIF SFMBUJPOTIJQ CFUXFFO

Graph

HMPCBMJTBUJPO BOE JOFRVBMJUJFT JO TBMBSZ "HIJPO )PXJUU 5IF BVUIPST TIPX UIBU the motor of economic growth is technical progress. The most important canal is that PG UIF '%*T UIF øPX PG DBQJUBMT JO UIF GPSN PG new technologies is the motor of growth.

34 Skilled and Unskilled Wage in the Transition to the New Technology

Source: Adopted from Aghion et al. (2002).

There is a period of transition for the transfer of the new technology between two DPVOUSJFT 'PS FYBNQMF PO UIJT HSBQI GSPN a point “Aâ€? the new technology is completely adopted in the country “Z“ and the economy PG UIJT DPVOUSZ EJWJEFT JOUP UXP TFDUPST B sector using skilled workers to carry out the new technology and a sector using VOTLJMMFE XPSLFST 'SPN UIF QPJOU i"w UIF JODPNF PG RVBMJĂśFE XPSLFST CFDPNFT i8Tw while that of unskilled workers is situated in i8Vw "O JODPNF JOFRVBMJUZ JT DSFBUFE PO UIF MBCPVS NBSLFU 'JOBODJBM JOUFHSBUJPO XIJDI

JT NFBTVSFE CZ UIF JOøPXT PG '%* NBZ UIVT influence the distribution of incomes of a developing country through the channel of technology transfers. The trainer refers the workshop to Adrian Pop’s intervention in the plenary sessions for the “relationship between globalisation and financial crises componentâ€? and to recent studies concerning the impact of Viᝇt Nam’s accession to the WTO (Cling et al., 2009; Pham, 2011).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

The session finishes with an analysis of the relationship between international trade and income inequalities. The World Bank distinguishes five groups of countries depending on their level of income: low income, middle income (bottom tier), middle income (upper tier), high non-OECD income (generally oil-producing countries), high income and members of the OECD. Viᝇt Nam is in the bottom tier middle income, China in the upper tier intermediate group. The workshop is divided into groups in order to work from the classification of the statistical relationship between international trade (exports and imports) and inequalities (Gini coefficient, Kaopen index). The data may be found on the World Development Indicator website.

Day 3, Wednesday 24th 2.2.5. Financial Regulation, Solvency and Credit Risk Prudential Regulation [Adrian Pop] The history of recent crises shows a period PG DBMN CFUXFFO BOE BOE TJODF UIF NJEEMF PG UIF TFWFOUJFT B TVDDFTTJPO

PG TFWFSF ĂśOBODJBM DSJTFT CPUI TZTUFNJD BOE OPO TZTUFNJD .PSF UIBO DPVOUSJFT have been hit by at least one financial crisis according to studies carried out by the 8PSME̓ #BOL BOE UIF *OUFSOBUJPOBM .POFUBSZ Fund on this topic. The costs of resolving the crises includes inter alia UIF JOKFDUJPO PG QVCMJD GVOET JOUP USPVCMFE CBOLT DPTUT PG CBJMJOH PVU GBJMJOH CBOLT JNQMJFE TVCTJEJFT UP MBSHF iUPP CJH UP GBJMw CBOLT CMBOLFU HVBSBOUFFT HSBOUFE UP CBOL DSFEJUPST BOE EFQPTJUPST FUD " HPPE̓ JMMVTUSBUJPO PG UIF TJ[F PG UIFTF SFTPMVUJPO̓ DPTUT JT UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT XIJDI FYQFSJFODFE B TFWFSF CBOLJOH DSJTJT BU UIF FOE PG UIF T UIBU DPTU "NFSJDBO UBYQBZFST BCPVU 64% CJMMJPO UIF CrĂŠdit Lyonnais crisis JO 'SBODF BU UIF CFHJOOJOH PG UIF T DPTU 'SFODI UBYQBZFST BCPVU 64%̓ ̓CJMMJPO o UIBU JT UP TBZ BCPVU &63 QFS DBQJUB 5IFSF IBWF been numerous debates about estimating the costs of resolving the subprime crisis PG CVU UP EBUF JU JT UPP EJĂłDVMU UP HFU BDDVSBUF FTUJNBUFT *O SFMBUJWF UFSNT UIF DPTUT of resolving banking and financial crises are WFSZ IJHI JO SFMBUJPO UP UIF (SPTT %PNFTUJD 1SPEVDU (%1 JO "SHFOUJOB GPS FYBNQMF NPSF UIBO PG UIF (%1 WBOJTIFE EVSJOH the currency and financial crisis the country TVòFSFE CFUXFFO BOE 5IF NBJO PCKFDUJWF PG ĂśOBODJBM SFHVMBUJPO JT UP SFEVDF both the probability of crises occurring and their impact on real economic growth.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Map 13 The Endemic Character of Banking Crises on the World Map (post-1975)

Systemic banking crises Non­systemic banking crises Absence of banking crises Insufficient information

Source: Lindgren et al. (1996) and Rochet (2008).

5IF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT TIPVME CF JO (SPVQ o i4ZTUFNJD #BOLJOH $SJTFTw o JG UIF EBUB XFSF

Graph

VQEBUFE BOE DPWFSFE UIF TVCQSJNF crisis.

35 Number of Banking Bankruptcies in the United States (1934-2010)

Source: Pennacchi (2009) and FDIC data on failed banks (www.fdic.gov).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

%VSJOH UIF T CBOLJOH CBOLSVQUDJFT BòFDUFE TNBMM JOTUJUVUJPOT SFHJPOBM TBWJOHT CBOLT XIFSFBT CFUXFFO BOE PS JOEFFE EVSJOH UIF (SFBU %FQSFTTJPO PG UIF T UIFSF XFSF JOEFFE GFXFS CBOLSVQUDJFT but the failed banks were much bigger in

Graph

TJ[F 5IFJS SFBM FòFDUT XFSF UIFSFGPSF NPSF harmful. Most recessions were preceded by financial DSJTFT FJUIFS CBOLJOH PS DVSSFODZ POFT 5IF NPSF TFWFSF UIF DSJTJT UIF NPSF OFHBUJWF UIF impact on economic growth.

36 Relationship between Severity of a Financial Crisis and Change in GDP Growth

Source: Cecchetti and Schoenholtz (2011).

*O PSEFS UP DPOUBJO DSJTFT HPWFSONFOUT in most countries conceive prudential regulations in order to prevent the occurrence of crises and ensure the stability of the financial system. We consider a system to be stable if it is capable of absorbing NBDSPFDPOPNJD TZTUFNJD SFDFTTJPOBSZ PS sectoral) shocks. Since the subprime crisis of NBDSPFDPOPNJTUT EJTUJOHVJTI CFUXFFO micro-prudential regulations – ensuring that each of the institutions that compose

the financial system is solvent and healthy – and macro-prudential ones – ensuring that the financial system as a whole is stable and resilient to shocks. At the meeting point of UIFTF UXP GPSNT PG SFHVMBUJPO JT UIF -FOEFS PG -BTU 3FTPSU -0-3 GVODUJPO UIBU JT USBEJUJPOBMMZ BTTVNFE CZ UIF DFOUSBM CBOLT *O UIF DBTF PG B DPOÜEFODF DSJTJT B DPNNFSDJBM CBOL NBZ UVSO to the central bank and ask for an emergency MPBO JO PSEFS UP EFBM XJUI MJRVJEJUZ QSPCMFNT (e.g. massive withdrawals by depositors).

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Two trainees from the workshop present the characteristics of the Vietnamese market – a little developed interbank market with the central bank responsible for the supervision of commercial banks. They also speak about the ACB bank, which was affected by a confidence crisis that led to massive demands for withdrawals – the confidence crisis was effectively managed in this case by the central bank. #BOLT BSF QFSDFJWFE BT CFJOH SBUIFS GSBHJMF JOTUJUVUJPOT UIBU SFHVMBSMZ TVòFS GSPN confidence crises. Economic literature makes B EJTUJODUJPO CFUXFFO iCBOL SVOTw UIBU BòFDU one isolated institution – and “bank panicsâ€? that arise when several institutions are TJNVMUBOFPVTMZ BòFDUFE CZ DPOĂśEFODF DSJTFT The most convincing and realistic theory that FYQMBJOT UIF QIFOPNFOPO PG CBOL SVOT BT B rational phenomenon is that of D. Diamond BOE 1I %ZCWJH +PVSOBM PG 1PMJUJDBM &DPOPNZ 5IFJS FDPOPNJD NPEFM JT CBTFE VQPO UISFF GVOEBNFOUBM IZQPUIFTFT 5IF FYJTUFODF PG BO JOGPSNBUJPO BTZNNFUSZ between depositors and the bank – the depositors only know imperfectly the HFOVJOF RVBMJUZ PG UIF CBOL T BTTFUT BOE whether the bank is intrinsically solvent or not; - When banks suddenly put their assets up GPS TBMF EVSJOH B MJRVJEJUZ DSJTJT UIF SFDPWFSZ value at fire sales prices is thus lower than the nominal value (book value) of the MJRVJEBUFE CBOLJOH BTTFUT - The bank honours demands for withdrawals PO UIF CBTJT PG UIF iĂśSTU DPNF ĂśSTU TFSWFEw

QSJODJQMF o BMTP SFGFSSFE UP BT UIF TFRVFOUJBM services constraint. When depositors simultaneously demand the conversion PG UIFJS EFQPTJUT JOUP MFHBM DVSSFODZ DBTI the amount recovered depends indeed on UIF RVBMJUZ PG UIF CBOL BTTFU QPSUGPMJP CVU also on the place the depositor occupies in UIF RVFVF UIBU GPSNT JO GSPOU PG UIF CBOL DPVOUFST UIPTF XIP ĂśOE UIFNTFMWFT CZ NJTGPSUVOF BU UIF FOE PG UIF RVFVF SJTL getting nothing. This micro-economic model of the banking firm assumes the absence of any regulation BOE QBSUJDVMBSMZ EFQPTJU JOTVSBODF CVU JU OFWFSUIFMFTT BMMPXT UP FYQMBJO SBUJPOBMMZ UIF QBOJDT PCTFSWFE BU UJNFT PG MJRVJEJUZ DSJTFT 'JOBMMZ CBOLJOH QBOJDT BSF OPU BT JSSBUJPOBM BT we might first believe (cf JNBHF At the period when deposit insurance did OPU FYJTU DSJTFT PG DPOĂśEFODF XFSF GSFRVFOU BOE TFWFSF XJUI XJUIESBXBMT CZ EFQPTJUPST constituting the principal cause of bank failures. *U JT XPSUI OPUJOH UIBU B MJRVJEJUZ SJTL NBZ BòFDU FWFO TPMWFOU CBOLT UIBU IBWF B healthy business model because they have UP DPOGSPOU SVNPVST MJRVJEJUZ DSJTFT NBZ CF USJHHFSFE CZ FYPHFOPVT GBDUPST XJUIPVU BOZ MJOL UP CBOL GVOEBNFOUBMT SVNPVST CBE OFXT FUD %JBNPOE BOE %ZCWJH speak about “sun spotâ€? risk – a depositor sees a sun spot and rushes to the bank because he fears the “end of the worldâ€? is nigh and other depositors follow because of the lack of coordination and asymmetric information (cf.̓QIPUP

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Image

2

Panic on Wall Street (New York, Thursday 14th May 1884)

Source: Gorton (2010).

Photo

28 Bank Run at the Northern Rock Counters (London, 14th September 2007)

Source: Wilson (2008).

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

5IF DPOTUJUVUJPO PG B HVBSBOUFF GVOE HFOFSBMMZ NBOBHFE CZ UIF HPWFSONFOU JT WFSZ FóDJFOU JO QSFTFSWJOH UIF DPOöEFODF PG EFQPTJUPST UIF GVOE HVBSBOUFFT UIBU every depositor will be reimbursed up to an BQQSPQSJBUF DPWFSBHF DFJMJOH &63 JO &VSPQF 7/% NJMMJPO JO 7J̏U /BN BOE UIJT is the case whatever happens to the bank MJRVJEBUJPO CBOLSVQUDZ JOTPMWFODZ JOBCJMJUZ

Graph

UP QBZ FUD 5IF öSTU GPSNBM EFQPTJU JOTVSBODF TDIFNF XBT DSFBUFE CZ UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT KVTU BGUFS UIF (SFBU %FQSFTTJPO JO 4JODF the implementation of the deposit insurance TDIFNF UIF OVNCFS PG CBOL GBJMVSFT JO the United States has drastically fallen o̓ PO BWFSBHF UP öGUFFO QFS ZFBS 5IJT öHVSF BQQFBST IJHI CVU UIF 64 CBOLJOH TZTUFN IBT BQQSPYJNBUFMZ CBOLJOH öSNT

37 The Adoption of Explicit Systems of Deposit Insurance throughout the World

Workforce (Dozens)

Years

Source: Demirgüç-Kunt et al. (2001).

5IF TZTUFN FYQFSJFODFE B SFBM TVDDFTT BOE XBT BEPQUFE PWFS UJNF CZ PUIFS DPVOUSJFT both developed and developing ones. 7J̏U̓/BN GPS FYBNQMF IBT UPEBZ BO FYQMJDJU system of deposits insurance that works well. "T GPS $BNCPEJB UIF DSFBUJPO PG B EFQPTJU JOTVSBODF NFDIBOJTN JT OPU BU QSFTFOU VOBOJNPVTMZ DBMMFE GPS CFDBVTF PG UIF particularly high degree of dollarisation in UIF DPVOUSZ 5IF $BNCPEJBO HPWFSONFOU JO JUT MPOH UFSN öOBODJBM SFGPSN QSPHSBNNF JT planning the creation of a deposit insurance TZTUFN GPS

What are the functioning principles of a EFQPTJU JOTVSBODF GVOE *O NPTU DPVOUSJFT UIF GVOE JT GFE CZ DPNNFSDJBM CBOLT XIJDI QBZ iJOTVSBODF QSFNJBw PODF PS UXJDF B ZFBS *O UIFPSZ UIF QSFNJB TIPVME CF DPSSFMBUFE XJUI the bank risk profile and with the amount of EFQPTJUT DPMMFDUFE CZ UIF CBOL JO QSJODJQMF a bank has to pay higher premia if it has riskier activities on its balance sheet and if it is primarily financed by deposit taking. 8IBU IBQQFOT JG BO iJOTVSFE FWFOUw PDDVST in this instance if a bank finds itself unable UP QBZ UIF EFQPTJUPST 8IFO B CBOL JT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

DPOGSPOUFE XJUI SFJNCVSTFNFOU EJóDVMUJFT POF PG UIF GPMMPXJOH UXP NFUIPET JT BQQMJFE -JRVJEBUJPO JO UIJT DBTF UIF CBOL JT EFDMBSFE CBOLSVQU BOE JUT BTTFUT MJRVJEBUFE 4FWFSBM EBZT PS XFFLT BGUFS UIF CBOLSVQUDZ the insurance fund reimburses all the depositors up to the amount of the DPWFSBHF DFJMJOH 5IFO B MJRVJEBUJPO procedure is implemented. The insurance GVOE JT DPOTFRVFOUMZ USBOTGPSNFE JOUP B creditor (the biggest one) as it subrogates to the depositors’ rights. The insurance fund eventually recovers a share of its payments UP EFQPTJUPST BU UIF FOE PG UIF MJRVJEBUJPO procedure and has its say in how this procedure is conducted. This method is brutal and sometimes may take several years; 1VSDIBTF BOE BTTVNQUJPO JO UIJT DBTF UIF CBTJD QSJODJQMF JT UP öOE BO BDRVJSFS UIBU JT UP TBZ B öOBODJBMMZ IFBMUIZ CBOL which will accept to take on the whole of UIF EFGBVMUJOH CBOL T BTTFUT XIJDI BSF JO QSJODJQMF PG CBE RVBMJUZ BT XFMM BT BMM PG JUT MJBCJMJUJFT 5IJT NFUIPE XIJDI JT SFMBUJWFMZ MFTT CSVUBM UIBO UIF öSTU POF JT NBEF FBTJFS

Table

CZ QVCMJD JODFOUJWFT öOBODJBM TVCTJEJFT TVCTJEJTFE MPBOT SFTUSVDUVSJOH PG UIF defaulting bank’s balance sheet before the NFSHF FUD *O UIF BCTFODF PG BO FYQMJDJU EFQPTJU JOTVSBODF TDIFNF UIF DFOUSBM CBOL NBZ TUJMM grant emergency loans as a last resort to the defaulting bank and the government may sometimes proceed with the temporary OBUJPOBMJTBUJPO PG EFGBVMUJOH CBOLT *O UIFTF FYUSFNF DBTFT EFQPTJU JOTVSBODF JT TBJE UP CF JNQMJDJU BT EFQPTJUPST EP OPU TVòFS BOZ MPTTFT Bank Solvency and Credit Risk The most important function of bank capital JT UIBU PG MPTT BCTPQUJPO UIF CBOL DBQJUBM BDUT as a cushion that absorbs losses related to the everyday activity of the bank. The bank capital or the bank’s own funds (the two terms will be used here as synonyms) have this accounting ability to absorb losses while allowing the bank to pursue its activities. -FU VT SFQSFTFOU UIF TJNQMJöFE CBMBODF TIFFU of a bank as follows.

18 Simplified Banking Balance Sheet (1)

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

" SFDFTTJPOBSZ TIPDL GPS FYBNQMF NBZ BòFDU the bank balance sheet through a rise in the amount of non-performing loans (bad debt)

Table

or a loss in value of the bank’s portfolio of trading assets. These losses may be absorbed if the bank has enough capital.

19 Simplified Banking Balance Sheet (2)

$35 $15 $10 $20 $60

$60

Source: Author’s construction.

*G UIF CBOL JT BòFDUFE CZ B NBDSP FDPOPNJD shock and the value of its own funds UVSOT PVU UP CF JOTVĂłDJFOU UP BCTPSC UIF MPTTFT UIFO JUT̓ OFU XPSUI EFĂśOFE BT UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO UIF NBSLFU WBMVF PG its assets and the value of its liabilities) may become negative. This means that the bank is insolvent from an economic point of view. *G UIF OFU XPSUI JT QPTJUJWF UIF WBMVF PG JUT assets is enough to reimburse all its debts and PUIFS MJBCJMJUJFT BOE UIF CBOL JT EFFNFE UP CF TPMWFOU GSPN BO FDPOPNJD QPJOU PG WJFX *O PUIFS XPSET JU IBT TVĂłDJFOU BTTFUT UP IPOPVS its long- and short-term commitments. Capital may thus be defined alternatively as UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO UIF NBSLFU WBMVF PG all the bank’s assets and all its liabilities – this is also called net worth. *O UIF SFBM XPSME JU JT DIBMMFOHJOH UP LOPX whether a bank is solvent or not as the market WBMVF PG JUT BTTFUT JT WBSJBCMF BOE WFSZ EJĂłDVMU

to evaluate. The book value of the assets is not enough to know whether a banking firm is solvent or not. *G BO JOUFSTFDUPSBM DPNQBSJTPO JT NBEF JO DBQJUBMJTBUJPO UFSNT XF SFBMJTF UIBU UIF capital/assets ratio is very heterogeneous – particularly in the banking sector. $PNQBSFE UP PUIFS TFDUPST PG UIF FDPOPNZ UIJT SBUJP XIJDI JT BMTP SFGFSSFE UP BT UIF TJNQMF VOXFJHIUFE TPMWFODZ SBUJP JT RVJUF MPX *O PUIFS XPSET UIF CBOLT ÜOBODF B MBSHF part of their activities through debt and not UISPVHI FRVJUZ BOE PUIFS QFSNBOFOU TPVSDFT PG GVOEJOH 4JNQMZ TUBUFE CBOLT BSF IJHIMZ leveraged institutions – the sum of their balance sheet items is very large in relation to UIF MFWFM PG UIFJS DBQJUBM 'PS -FINBO #SPUIFST UIF th investment bank in the US that went CBOLSVQU JO 4FQUFNCFS GPS FYBNQMF UIF UPUBM BNPVOU PG BTTFUT XFSF BCPVU UJNFT IJHIFS UIBO UIF CBOL T DBQJUBM *O -FINBO #SPUIFST BTTFUT SFQSFTFOUFE NPSF

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

UIBO 64% CJMMJPO UIBU JT UP TBZ NPSF UIBO UJNFT UIF (%1 PG $BNCPEJB 4JODF UIF T UIF MFWFSBHF SBUJP PG UIJT JOWFTUNFOU CBOL DPNQVUFE BT UPUBM BTTFUT EJWJEFE CZ UPUBM EFCU BOE PUIFS MJBCJMJUJFT IBT BMXBZT CFFO WFSZ IJHI CFUXFFO BOE What is the risk of a bank operating in UIJT̓XBZ Nguyáť…n TĂş -FWFSBHF JT BMTP B USBQ UIBU NBZ XFBLFO B bank and provoke bankruptcy. [Adrian Pop]

A so-called solvency regime establishes a relationship between the amount of permanent sources of funding (own funds PS DBQJUBM BOE UIF CBOL T SJTL FYQPTVSF 6OEFS UIF #BTFM $BQJUBM "DDPSET UIF MBUUFS JT measured by the “Risk Weighted Assetâ€? (RWA) PS SJTL BEKVTUFE BTTFUT 5IF SFHVMBUPSZ SFRVJSFNFOU JT RVJUF TJNQMF BU̓ BOZ NPNFOU UIF CBOL NVTU IBWF B TPMWFODZ̓ SBUJP UIBU JT IJHIFS UIBO BDDPSEJOH UP UIF #BTFM "HSFFNFOUT TrĆ°ĆĄng Quang ThĂ´ng *O 7JĚ?U /BN JU IBT CFFO BU TJODF

*OEFFE VOEFS DBQJUBMJTFE CBOLT IBWF MJUUMF DBQBDJUZ UP BCTPSC MPTTFT XIJDI FYQPTFT them to a greater risk of bankruptcy. Why EJE -FINBO #SPUIFST EFDJEF UP PQFSBUF XJUI TVDI B IJHI MFWFSBHF 8IZ JT JU JOUFSFTUJOH for shareholders to invest in an institution XJUI TVDI MFWFSBHF 5IJT DBO CF FYQMBJOFE CZ UIF̓ MJOL UIBU FYJTUT CFUXFFO ĂśOBODJBM profitability measures (e.g 3FUVSO PO &RVJUZ or ROE) and the leverage. With a high MFWFSBHF SBUJP UIF MFWFM PG DBQJUBMJTBUJPO JT MPX and that raises automatically the ROE ratio BT UIF EFOPNJOBUPS PG UIF SBUJP EJNJOJTIFT CVU JU FYQPTFT UIF ĂśSN UP B HSFBUFS SJTL PG default (the probability of insolvency rises XJUI MFWFSBHF *SPOJDBMMZ UXP PS UISFF ZFBST CFGPSF JUT CBOLSVQUDZ -FINBO #SPUIFST XPO UIF QSJ[F GPS CFJOH UIF CFTU QFSGPSNJOH investment bank in the United States. Capital is thus important for a banking firm as it allows it to absorb losses due to current activities. Other investment banks (e.g ̓ +1̓ .PSHBO CFUUFS SFTJTUFE UIF DSJTJT as they were better capitalised and thus benefitted from a better capacity to absorb losses.

[Adrian Pop] *OEFFE JO EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT UIF SFHVMBUPSZ SFRVJSFNFOU JT PGUFO IJHIFS UIBO XIJDI JT UIF OPSN JO EFWFMPQFE DPVO USJFT *O $BNCPEJB GPS FYBNQMF UIF SFHVMBUPSZ̓ NJOJNVN IBT CFFO TFU BU CZ UIF $FOUSBM #BOL XIJDI JT BMTP UIF CBOL TVQFSWJTPS #FGPSF UIF DSJTJT PG the solvency ratios of banks in developed countries were generally well above the SFHVMBUPSZ NJOJNVN BSPVOE 5IF reported solvency ratios vary from one DPVOUSZ UP BOPUIFS CVU UIFSF JT B NJOJNVN that is closely monitored by the banking system’s supervisors. #BOL DBQJUBM JT DPNQPTFE PG UISFF DBUFHPSJFT 5JFS DBQJUBM XIJDI JODMVEFT QSJNBSJMZ paid-up share capital / common stocks and disclosed reserves (profits that have not been distributed as dividends to the shareholders); 5JFS DBQJUBM XIJDI JODMVEFT BNPOH PUIFST VOEJTDMPTFE SFTFSWFT BTTFU SFFWBMVBUJPO SFTFSWFT HFOFSBM QSPWJTJPOT HFOFSBM MPBO MPTT SFTFSWFT IZCSJE EFCU FRVJUZ

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

capital instruments and subordinated debt (securities issued by banks and bought by institutional investors or individuals). The sub-debt securities have a fiveyear minimum maturity at issue and are UIVT MPOH UFSN TFDVSJUJFT *O UIF DBTF PG CBOLSVQUDZ UIF IPMEFST PG UIFTF TFDVSJUJFT BMTP SFGFSSFE UP BT TVCPSEJOBUFE DSFEJUPST will only be reimbursed following the complete reimbursement of the senior or priority creditors – they are however reimbursed before the shareholders; 5JFS DBQJUBM XIJDI JT TQFDJÜD UP CBOLT involved in market activities (this is not UIF DBTF PG UIF 7JFUOBNFTF $BNCPEJBO

Graph

PS -BPUJBO CBOLT 5JFS DBQJUBM DPOTJTUT PG short-term subordinated debt. The Basel Agreements What are the main principles used in the DBMDVMBUJPO PG UIF TPMWFODZ SBUJP #FGPSF SFQMZJOH UP UIJT RVFTUJPO MFU VT TUFQ CBDL B bit from the current situation and compare today’s solvency ratios with those reported by US banks more than a century ago. The US banking system has been chosen simply in order to benefit from data that can be compared over relatively long periods of time

38 The Decline in Solvency Ratios (United States, 1840-1990)

% Banking law 1863 Creation of the Fed 1914Â

Creation of the FDIC 1933Â

YearsÂ

Note: FED: Federal Reserve System; FDIC: Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Source: Berger et al. (1995).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

 Cooke ratio1990Â

5IJT HSBQI QSFTFOUT BWFSBHF TPMWFODZ SBUJPT which represent the average of all US banks. %VSJOH UIF th DFOUVSZ CBOLT öOBODFE NPSF than a half of their activities with their own GVOET XIJMF BU UIF FOE PG UIF T UIF BWFSBHF TPMWFODZ SBUJP ESPQQFE UP 8IBU BSF UIF GBDUPST UIBU FYQMBJO UIJT TQFDUBDVMBS EFDMJOF 5IF öSTU CBOLJOH MBX BEPQUFE JO implemented the first system of licencing BOE BDDSFEJUBUJPO GSPN UIJT EBUF UIFSF FYJTUFE TQFDJöD SFHVMBUJPO UP DSFBUF B CBOL #FGPSF UIJT MBX CBOLT XFSF FBTJMZ DSFBUFE BOE CBOLFST did not always act with great probity – some PG UIFN PQFOFE CBOLT BOE B GFX NPOUIT MBUFS SBO Pò XJUI EFQPTJUPST NPOFZ *O PSEFS UP SFBTTVSF TBWFST CBOLFST VTFE UIFJS PXO GVOE BT B TJHOBM PG RVBMJUZ B XFMM DBQJUBMJTFE bank was much less likely to engage in risky or spoliation activities. Another element that significantly contributed to the decline of the solvency ratios was the creation of the Federal 3FTFSWFT 4ZTUFN PS UIF 'FE JO 5IF central role of the Fed was to act as a lender of last resort during confidence crises. The first deposit insurance system was created JO KVTU BGUFS UIF (SFBU %FQSFTTJPO "MM these regulatory factors have contributed to UIF EFDMJOF PG TPMWFODZ SBUJPT BT UIFZ IBWF taken the place of bank capital in its role of QSFTFSWJOH DSFEJUPST TBWFST BOE EFQPTJUPST DPOöEFODF "U UIF FOE PG UIF T UIF solvency ratios of the big internationally active banks reached worrying levels. 5IF NBJO PCKFDUJWF PG UIF öSTU #BTFM $BQJUBM "DDPSE BEPQUFE JO XBT UP SFJOGPSDF banks’ own funds and reverse the negative trend in solvency ratios by imposing the respect of a minimum ratio. After the adoption and implementation of the first #BTFM $BQJUBM "DDPSE #BTFM * UIF EPXOXBSE trend in solvency ratios was indeed reversed.

5IF TFDPOE PCKFDUJWF PG #BTFM * XBT UP preserve a fair competition between the big JOUFSOBUJPOBMMZ BDUJWF CBOLT UIF TP DBMMFE iMFWFM QMBZJOH öFMEw QSJODJQMF 'PS FYBNQMF JO UIF T 64 CBOLT XFSF DPOTUSBJOFE CZ SFHVMBUJPO PO UIFJS PXO GVOET XIJMF +BQBOFTF CBOLT XFSF TVCKFDU UP B NVDI iTPGUFSw DBQJUBM SFHVMBUJPO 5IJT EJòFSFODF JO SFHVMBUJPO GBWPVSFE UIF JNQMBOUBUJPO PG +BQBOFTF banks in the United States and these banks DPORVFSFE MBSHF TIBSFT PG UIF DSFEJU BOE deposit markets in the United States. The US banks then insisted on a harmonisation of banking capital regulation on a world scale. Some interesting studies (e.g + 8BHTUFS T BSUJDMF QVCMJTIFE JO UIF +PVSOBM PG 'JOBODF JO BOE UJUMFE i*NQBDU PG UIF #BTMF "DDPSE PO *OUFSOBUJPOBM #BOLTw TIPX UIBU JO UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT BGUFS UIF BEPQUJPO PG UIF öSTU #BTFM $BQJUBM "DDPSE UIF NBSLFU TIBSF PG UIF +BQBOFTF CBOLT JO UIF 64 CFHBO UP TISJOL This is the hidden face of the negotiations BSPVOE #BTFM * 8IBU BSF UIF MJNJUBUJPOT PG #BTFM * - Only credit risk is taken into account – i.e. the risk that a borrower will default and not be able to reimburse the amount of capital and interest. 5IF SJTL NFBTVSF JT SBUIFS CMVOU #BOLJOH assets are basically divided into four distinct DMBTTFT t /P SJTL XFJHIUJOH GBDUPS 5IJT DMBTT PG BTTFUT JODMVEFT UIF TFDVSJUJFT JTTVFE CZ the government that are very well rated; the cash or securities indeed bear no credit SJTL HPME SFTFSWFT BMTP PS DMBJNT PO 0&$% governments and central banks in OECD countries. t -PX SJTL XFJHIUJOH GBDUPS 5IF iMPX risk” class includes claims on developed DPVOUSJFT PO TUBUF PXOFE &OUSFQSJTFT

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

(SOEs) – the State is generally perceived as more solvent than private sector enterprises. t .PEFSBUF SJTL 5IJT DMBTT DPOTJTUT QSJNBSJMZ PG USBEJUJPOBM NPSUHBHF MPBOT UIF QSPQFSUZ BDRVJSFE TFSWFT BT B HVBSBOUFF against the risk of default of the borrower. t )JHI SJTL BMM USBEJUJPOBM DPOTVNFS BOE DPSQPSBUF MPBOT UP UIF QSJWBUF TFDUPS BT well as any other banking asset that does not belong to the preceding classes. 8JUIJO FBDI DMBTT POF ĂśOET JO SFBMJUZ WFSZ IFUFSPHFOFPVT SJTL QSPĂśMFT GPS FYBNQMF B credit granted to a small business firm has the same risk profile as a credit granted to a solvent AAA-rated firm listed on a stock FYDIBOHF The denominator of the solvency ratio (the so-called “risk weighted assetâ€? or RWA) is simply calculated by multiplying the book value of the items included in each class by UIF DPSSFTQPOEJOH XFJHIUJOH DPFĂłDJFOUT then adding up the “weighted assetsâ€? o̓ DMBTT̓ BTTFUT BSF NVMUJQMJFE CZ DMBTT

Box

POFT CZ̓ FUD 5IVT UIF 38" JT BMXBZT JOGFSJPS UP UIF UPUBM PG UIF CBOL T BTTFUT TJODF UIF DPFĂłDJFOUT BSF OFWFS IJHIFS UIBO 38"̓ SFNBJOT ̓ IPXFWFS B SPVHI SJTL NFBTVSF BT GPS FYBNQMF JO UIF SFBM XPSME BMM mortgage loans do not carry the same risk. The diversification of the credit portfolio is also not taken into account – let us imagine a bank that only grants loans to farmers and another one that has a well diversified QPSUGPMJP GBSNFST ĂśSNT JO PUIFS TFDUPST CPSSPXFST MPDBUFE JO WBSJPVT SFHJPOT FUD JO̓ UIF DBTF PG øPPEJOH UIF ĂśSTU CBOL NBZ FBTJMZ HP CBOLSVQU XIJMF UIF TFDPOE CBOL T capacity to resist shocks will be relatively stronger due to a better diversification of its QPSUGPMJP PG BTTFUT 5IJT JNQPSUBOU EJòFSFODF is not taken into account when calculating UIF TPMWFODZ SBUJP VOEFS UIF #BTFM * $BQJUBM Accord. The solvency ratio computed under #BTFM * JT BMTP DBMMFE UIF i$PPLF SBUJPw BGUFS UIF OBNF PG UIF $IBJSNBO PG UIF #BTFM $PNNJUUFF PO #BOLJOH 4VQFSWJTJPO JO William Peter Cooke.

14 Principles of Calculation for the Cooke Ratio

Cooke ratio

or, alternatively Tier 1 ratio

or, alternatively Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

5IF SFHVMBUPSZ NJOJNVN PG GPS UIF UPUBM capital (Cooke) ratio was negotiated during UIF EJTDVTTJPOT UIBU QSFDFEFE UIF öSTU #BTFM $BQJUBM "DDPSE 5IF 5JFS SBUJP JT DBMDVMBUFE JO UIF TBNF XBZ CVU CZ POMZ UBLJOH JOUP BDDPVOU UIF 5JFS DBQJUBM JO UIF OVNFSBUPS PG UIF SBUJP BT GPS UIF 5JFS UIF SBUJP NVTU CF IJHIFS UIBO 5IFTF BSF NJOJNVN SFRVJSFNFOUT (FOFSBMMZ UIF CBOLT EFDJEF UP HP XFMM BCPWF BOE CFZPOE UIF NJOJNVN SFRVJSFNFOU JO PSEFS UP BWPJE SFHVMBUPSZ DPOTUSBJOUT UP UBSHFU B HPPE DSFEJU SBUJOH PS UP HBJO BDDFT UP derivative markets. 'PS FYBNQMF B CBOL MFOET 64% UP BO JOEVTUSJBM öSN $MBTT XFJHIUJOH DPFóDJFOU̓ PG̓ B NJOJNVN PG PG this loan must be financed by this bank’s permanent sources of funding (own funds). *G JOTUFBE PG UIF DPSQPSBUF MPBO UIF CBOL granted a mortgage loan for the same BNPVOU $MBTT̓ XFJHIUJOH DPFóDJFOU UIF NJOJNBM DBQJUBM SFRVJSFNFOU XPVME CF 64% BT VOEFS #BTFM * UIF NPSUHBHF MPBOT are considered to be less risky than corporate loans. *O SFBMJUZ UIF DBMDVMBUJPO JT NBEF BU UIF MFWFM PG UIF CBOL T HMPCBM BTTFU QPSUGPMJP 0ò CBMBODF̓ TIFFU BTTFUT GBDJMJUJFT EFSJWBUJWF DPOUSBDUT TXBQT DPNNJUNFOUT HVBSBO UFFT MFUUFST PG DSFEJU FUD BSF BMTP UBLFO JOUP account in the calculation of the solvency ratio. 5P DPODMVEF #BTFM * JT B DBQJUBM BDDPSE UIBU JT FBTZ UP VOEFSTUBOE BOE JNQMFNFOU XIJDI covers no more than twenty or so pages. The OFHPUJBUPST BHSFFE PO UIF QSJODJQMFT BOE UIF accord has been applied in banks in both developed and developing countries. The BEWBOUBHF PG #BTFM * JT XJUIPVU BOZ EPVCU JUT simplicity; its principal disadvantage is linked

UP UIF QSPQPTFE SJTL NFBTVSF 38" XIJDI JT unfortunately too crude. *O XIBU GPMMPXT XF BSF HPJOH UP TFF UIF FYBNQMF PG B CBOL XIPTF öOBODJBM SFQPSUT CBMBODF BOE Pò CBMBODF TIFFU JODMVEF TFWFSBM DMBTTFT PG BTTFUT BOE XF BSF HPJOH to see how the RWA and the solvency ratio BSF DBMDVMBUFE JO PSEFS UP KVEHF UIF CBOL T solvency. The financial reports discussed here BSF SFQSFTFOUBUJWF GPS BO BWFSBHF TJ[FE CBOL operating in a traditional banking sector. An Excel solvency ratio exercise is proposed to trainees during the workshop. A multiplechoice questionnaire about the financial and banking system is also distributed. Bank Solvency Reform: A Brief Introduction to Basel II Some of the biggest Vietnamese banks already have risk models that take into BDDPVOU #BTFM̓** DSJUFSJB 8IBU BSF UIF SFBTPOT GPS UIF SFGPSN XIZ DIBOHF CBOL DBQJUBM SFHVMBUJPOT The reasons are not necessarily linked to UIF̓ JOTVóDJFODZ PG DBQJUBM PG JOUFSOBUJPOBMMZ BDUJWF CBOLT XIJDI XFSF RVJUF XFMM DBQJUBMJTFE̓ CFGPSF TXJUDIJOH UP #BTFM ** JO 5IF NBJO SFBTPO GPS UIJT DIBOHF JT iSFHVMBUPSZ BSCJUSBHFw #Z EFöOJUJPO SFHVMBUPSZ BSCJUSBHF UFDIOJRVFT SFQSFTFOU a set of methods and strategies that are all absolutely legal and have been implemented by the big internationally active banks in order to get around regulatory restrictions and to avoid regulatory constraints. Although MFHBM SFHVMBUPSZ BSCJUSBHF HPFT BHBJOTU the spirit of the bank capital regulation. *U DPODFSOT̓ DJSDVNWFOUJPO UFDIOJRVFT

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

UIBU BSF TPNFUJNFT WFSZ TPQIJTUJDBUFE often involving credit securitisation to underestimate risks on bank balance sheets and “soften” regulatory constraints DPODFSOJOH̓CBOL DBQJUBM 5IF NBJO PCKFDUJWF PG #BTFM ** XBT UP SFEVDF UIF TDPQF PG SFHVMBUPSZ BSCJUSBHF "OPUIFS PCKFDUJWF XIJDI VOEFSMJFT UIF öSTU XBT UP JNQSPWF the measure of risk in the solvency ratio in order to obtain a refined measure that covers TFWFSBM CBOLJOH̓SJTLT 5IVT DSFEJU SJTL JT UBLFO JOUP BDDPVOU CVU BMTP NBSLFU BOE PQFSBUJPOBM risk. Market risk is defined as the risk of losses due to unforeseen movements in market SJTL GBDUPST JOUFSFTU SBUFT FYDIBOHF SBUFT WPMBUJMJUJFT BTTFU QSJDFT FUD 7JFUOBNFTF BOE $BNCPEJBO CBOLT BSF MJUUMF FYQPTFE UP UIJT UZQF PG SJTL BT UIFZ BSF OPU CJH BDUJWF QMBZFST in international capital markets. On the other IBOE CBOLT JO EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT BSF IJHIMZ FYQPTFE UP DSFEJU BOE PQFSBUJPOBM SJTL Operational risk is the risk of losses due to IVNBO FSSPS GSBVE DPNQVUFS CSFBLEPXOT BOE MFHBM SJTL OBUVSBM SJTLT øPPEJOH FBSUIRVBLFT FUD BSF BMTP BTTPDJBUFE UP UIJT class of risk. #BTFM ** SFTUT VQPO UISFF QJMMBST PG XIJDI the first describes the modalities for the calculation of the solvency ratio and BDDPVOUT GPS ̓PG̓UIF BHSFFNFOU JO UFSNT of page space. The agreement proposes three calculation options for the solvency ratio – according to their degree of sophistication BOE UIFJS öOBDOOJBM SFTTPVSDFT CBOLT NBZ DIPPTF POF PG UIF GPMMPXJOH BQQSPBDIFT UIF TUBOEBSEJTFE BQQSPBDI 4" DBMJCSBUFE GPS TNBMM CBOLT BOE UIF JOUFSOBM SBUJOH BQQSPBDI o i*OUFSOBM 3BUJOH #BTFE "QQSPBDIw *3# 5IF banks must then calibrate rating scales similar

UP UIPTF VTFE CZ FYUFSOBM SBUJOH BHFODJFT 4 1T .PPEZ T 'JUDI FUD BOE UIJT NVTU CF EPOF GPS UIF EJòFSFOU DBUFHPSJFT PG CPSSPXFST BOE MPBOT SFUBJM DPSQPSBUF CJH FYQPTVSFT etc.). The standardised approach is simpler BOE OPU NVDI EJòFSFOU GSPN #BTFM * 5IF #BTFM $PNNJUUFF QSPQPTFT B TUBOEBSEJTFE XFJHIUJOH NBUSJY XIFSF XF öOE UIF EJòFSFOU DPVOUFSQBSUJFT BOE FYQPTVSFT MPBOT granted to governments and multilateral EFWFMPQNFOU CBOLT MPBOT HSBOUFE UP öSNT UP IPVTFIPMET DPOTVNFS MPBOT NPSUHBHF MPBOT FUD -FU VT QVU BTJEF UIF DPFóDJFOUT UIBU BSF actually applied in order to focus on the calculation principles that are illustrated by a GFX FYBNQMFT cf CPY 6OMJLF #BTFM * XF DBO PCTFSWF B DFSUBJO degree of heterogeneity in the weighting depending on the type of borrower in the TUBOEBSEJTFE BQQSPBDI PG #BTFM ** 6OEFS #BTFM̓ * UIFTF UISFF DPSQPSBUF MPBOT XPVME IBWF BMM CFFO XFJHIUFE BU * NZTFMG BN WFSZ DSJUJDBM BCPVU UIJT TP DBMMFE iTUBOEBSEJTFE BQQSPBDIw *O EFWFMPQJOH FDPOPNJFT UIFSF BSF OPU B MPU PG SBUFE öSNT FWFO JO 'SBODF GFXFS UIBO PG BMM French firms are rated by the credit rating BHFODJFT .PTU 4.&T MJCFSBM QSPGFTTJPOT FUD BSF OPU QBSU PG UIF VOJWFSTF PG öSNT SBUFE CZ FYUFSOBM BHFODJFT 8F DBO BMTP SBJTF RVFTUJPOT BCPVU UIF JOGPSNBUJPOBM DPOUFOU PG DSFEJU SBUJOHT CFGPSF UIF TVCQSJNF DSJTJT CBE RVBMJUZ TFDVSJUJFT XFSF XFMM SBUFE """ CZ UIFTF BHFODJFT *O 'SBODF UIF DFOUSBM CBOL Banque de France BTTJHOT B SBUJOH BMTP SFGFSSFE UP BT UIF '*#&/ SBUJOH UP 'SFODI öSNT BOE UIJT SBUJOH NBZ CF VTFE BT XFMM BT the ratings assigned by Moody’s and other

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Box

15 The Standardised Approach

Example 1. A bank must cover a loan of USD 1 million granted to a business firm rated A by S&P (i.e. weighting = 50%) with a capital of: 8% * (USD 1 million) * 50% = USD 40,000 Example 2. If the rating is lower than B-, the credit must be weighted at 150% and covered as follows: 8% * (USD 1 million) * 150% = USD 120,000 Example 3. If the firm is not rated (this is the case of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for example), the bank must apply a weighting of 100% and constitute a capital cushion of: 8% * (USD 1 million) * 100% = USD 80,000 Source: Author’s construction.

BHFODJFT CZ UIF 'SFODI CBOLT IBWJOH PQUFE GPS UIF TUBOEBSEJTFE BQQSPBDI PG #BTFM ** 5IF Banque de France SBUJOHT DPWFS BSPVOE of all French firms. Developing a central bank managed system for rating private sector ĂśSNT JO -BPT $BNCPEJB BOE 7JFUOBN TFFNT to me an interesting and promising avenue UP FYQMPSF 5P DPODMVEF MFU NF TBZ B GFX XPSET BCPVU UIF *OUFSOBM 3BUJOHT #BTFE "QSPBDI *3# A bank must obtain the agreement of UIF SFHVMBUPS o JO 'SBODF UIF 1SVEFOUJBM Supervision and Resolution Authority (AutoritĂŠ de ContrĂ´le Prudentiel et de RĂŠsolution PS "$13 o BOE QSPWF UIBU JU IBT IJHI RVBMJUZ EBUB DPNQVUFS TPGUXBSF IVNBO SFTTVSDFT FUD "U UIF IFBSU PG UIFTF *3# NPEFMT GPVS LFZ QBSBNFUFST BSF SFUBJOFE 5IF QSPCBCJMJUZ PG EFGBVMU 1% XIJDI JT a statistical measure that reflects the risk of a borrower defaulting after a certain QFSJPE PG UJNF HFOFSBMMZ POF ZFBS BOE OPU reimbursing the capital and interest at the statuary deadlines. This parameter must be estimated for each borrower or class of CPSSPXFST XJUIJO B CBOLJOH QPSUGPMJP UIF

risk measure is sensitive and refined as it is calibrated at individual level; 5IF &YQPTVSF BU %FGBVMU &"% UIJT JT UIF BNPVOU FYQSFTTFE JO NPOFUBSZ VOJUT UIBU the bank risks losing if a borrower defaults on its obligations; 5IF 3FDPWFSZ 3BUF 33 FYQSFTTFE BT B QFSDFOUBHF PG UIF FYQPTVSF BU EFGBVMU UIBU the bank hopes to recover if the borrower EFGBVMUT BMUFSOBUJWFMZ UIF -PTT (JWFO %FGBVMU -(% QBSBNFUFS JT EFĂśOFE BT UIF QFSDFOUBHF PG UIF FYQPTVSF UIF CBOL may lose in the case of default; these two NFBTVSFT XIJDI BSF DPNQMFNFOUBSZ BSF also estimated at the level of each borrower; UIFZ BSF UIVT WFSZ TFOTJUJWF NFBTVSFT FTUJNBUFE GPS FBDI FYQPTVSF 5IF NBUVSJUZ PG UIF FYQPTVSF 5IFTF DSFEJU SJTL QBSBNFUFST XIJDI BSF calibrated at the individual level of each CPSSPXFS̓ FYQPTVSF BSF UIFO VTFE BT JOQVUT JO B iCMBDL CPYw XIJDI HJWFT BT B SFTVMU UIF NJOJNBM DBQJUBM SFRVJSFNFOUT FYQSFTTFE CZ VOJU PG FYQPTVSF 5IFTF NJOJNBM DBQJUBM SFRVJSFNFOUT BSF WFSZ TFOTJUJWF UP UIF CBOL T risk profile because all the key parameters BSF FWBMVBUFE BU UIF JOEJWJEVBM MFWFM FBDI CPSSPXFS BOE FBDI FYQPTVSF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Day 4, Thursday 25th The first part of the day is devoted to the correction of the exercises given in Days 2 and 3 concerning international trade, income inequalities and the calculation of solvency ratios.

2.2.6. Decision about Investment and Uncertainties [Thomas VallĂŠe] We are now going to take a micro-economic viewpoint. We shall present some decisionNBLJOH UPPMT XIJDI DPNF GSPN EFDJTJPO NBLJOH UIFPSZ UIBU XF TIBMM QSJODJQBMMZ BQQMZ UP UIF BOBMZTJT PG JOWFTUNFOU QSPKFDUT PG B QSJWBUF OBUVSF FOUFSQSJTF PS HPWFSONFOU PS MPDBM BVUIPSJUZ JOGSBTUSVDUVSF QSPKFDUT [Sophie Pardo] Certain tools are also used to make individual decisions that are not necessarily JOWFTUNFOUT ̓ CVU TJNQMZ EFDJTJPOT JO BO uncertain universe.

Introduction to Uncertain Future Investment Criteria One first basic criterion is “Cash Flowsâ€?. "OZ̓ JOWFTUNFOU EFDJTJPO HFOFSBUFT BDDPSEJOH UP UIF MFOHUI PG UIF QSPKFDU OFU in-flows and out-flows of money. Typically the first investment period – t=0 – will be a DBTI PVU øPX UIF OFU øPX XJMM CF OFHBUJWF CFDBVTF PG UIF JOWFTUNFOU 5IFO JG UIF QSPKFDU GVODUJPOT DBTI JO øPXT XJMM HFOFSBUF positive flows so as to compensate the JOJUJBM PVU øPXT *O POF ZFBS UIFSF XJMM CF revenue linked to operation (R FYQFOTFT linked to operation (D UBYFT T JOWFTUNFOU FYQFOTFT̓ I) and eventually a resale value (V) in the case of a withdrawal from the market. The sum of FNTs XJMM CF XSJUUFO UIVT

*G UIF BNPVOU JO UIF ZFBST n JT QPTJUJWF UIFO UIF QSPKFDU HFOFSBUFT NPSF SFWFOVF UIBO UIF̓ FYQFOTFT JU JOJUJBMMZ OFDFTTJUBUFE 0OF JNQMJDJU DSJUJDJTN BQQFBST XF QSFTVNF UIBU POF FVSP BU UIF QFSJPE GPS FYBNQMF JT FRVJWBMFOU UP B FVSP JOWFTUFE BU UIF QFSJPE 0 which is not true in economy. [Sophie Pardo] :PV DBO TFF UIBU OFU øPXT PG USFBTVSZ BSF to be foreseen at the beginning of the QSPKFDU BU t=0. We can accurately predict the øPXT HFOFSBUFE PWFS UIF ĂśSTU ZFBST CVU̓ JG UIF QSPKFDU DPOUJOVFT UIF GPSFDBTU BU t=0 is EJĂłDVMU UP NBLF 4FOTJUJWJUZ TUVEJFT TFSWF UP compensate the unknown concerning flows generated in the long term.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[Thomas VallĂŠe]

Box

16 Case studies

Project 1 Initial investment: EUR 120m Straight line amortisation of the investment: (120/6 = EUR 20m per annum) Estimated annual turnover: EUR 100m per annum Annual expenses: EUR 60m per annum Tax (40% of profits): (100 − 60 − 20)0.4 = 8

Project 2 Initial investment: EUR 180m Straight line amortisation of the investment: (180/6 = EUR 30m per annum) Estimated annual turnover: EUR 170m per annum Annual expenses: EUR 120m per annum Resale of buildings: EUR 80m Tax (40% of profits): (170 - 120 - 30) 0.4 = 8 without resale Tax: (170 - 120 - 30 + 80) 0.4 = 40 with resale

Source: Author’s construction.

-FU VT SFDBQJUVMBUF UIF øPX GPS UIF UXP QSPKFDUT

Table

20 FNT Project 1

YearsÂ

Invest.Â

0Â

120Â

RecuperationÂ

ProductsÂ

ChargesÂ

TaxesÂ

FNT ­120Â

1Â

100Â

60Â

8Â

+32Â

2Â

100Â

60Â

8Â

+32Â

3Â

100Â

60Â

8Â

+32Â

4Â

100Â

60Â

8Â

+32Â

5Â

100Â

60Â

8Â

+32Â

6Â

100Â

60Â

8Â

+32Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­ + 600Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­ ­ 360Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­ ­ 48Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­ +72Â

SÂ

­­­­­­­­­­­ ­ 120Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­­Â

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Table

21 FNT Project 2

YearsÂ

InvestmentÂ

0Â

180Â

RecuperationÂ

ProductsÂ

ChargesÂ

TaxesÂ

FNT ­180Â

1Â

170Â

120Â

8Â

+42Â

2Â

170Â

120Â

8Â

+42Â

3Â

170Â

120Â

8Â

+42Â

4Â

170Â

120Â

8Â

+42Â

5Â

170Â

120Â

8Â

+42Â

80Â

170Â

120Â

40Â

+90Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­­ +80Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­­ + 1020Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­­ ­ 720Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­­ ­ 80Â

­­­­­­­­­­­­­ +120Â

6Â SÂ

­­­­­­­­­­­­­ ­ 180Â

Source: Author’s construction.

5IF BNPVOU PG USFBTVSZ øPXT GPS QSPKFDU̓ TIPXT B QPTJUJWF SFTVMU UIF QSPKFDU JT profitable. The amortisation is counted in PSEFS UP DBMDVMBUF UBYFT *O UIF TFDPOE QSPKFDU UIF SFTBMF WBMVF JT BEEFE *O UPUBM OFU øPX JT QPTJUJWF BOE UIF QSPKFDU DBO CF BDDFQUFE

8F TIBMM TFF UIBU ĂśOBMMZ QSPKFDU IBT B NBKPS EJTBEWBOUBHF JUT QSJODJQBM øPX BSSJWFT BGUFS B̓MPOH QFSJPE PG UJNF *UT QSJODJQBM BEWBOUBHF JO SFMBUJPO UP QSPKFDU JT UIF øPX MJOLFE UP UIF̓SFTBMF JO UIF MBTU QFSJPE 5IJT øPX XJMM CF the last and most uncertain one.

$BO XF TBZ UIBU QSPKFDU JT CFUUFS UIBO QSPKFDU CFDBVTF JU HFOFSBUFT &63 N JOTUFBE PG &63 N

Another criterion that is often used is that of MJRVJEJUZ 8F IBWF UP MPPL BU XIBU NPNFOU UIF USFBTVSZ JT SFDVQFSBUFE BU XIBU NPNFOU UIF JOWFTUNFOU JT SFJNCVSTFE o i1BZ #BDLw We look for the date “kâ€? of the recuperation of invested capital.

Table

22 Cumulated FNT of Two Projects

YearsÂ

0Â

1Â

2Â

3Â

4Â

5Â

6Â

Project 1Â

­120Â

­88Â

­56Â

­24Â

8Â

40Â

72Â

Project 2Â

­180Â

­138Â

­96Â

­54Â

­12Â

30Â

120Â

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

1SPKFDU DPTUT &63 N BOE CSJOHT JO &63 N BOOVBMMZ UIF EBUF PG SFUVSO PO JOWFTUNFOU JT CFUXFFO BOE ZFBST GPS QSPKFDU UIF QFSJPE JT CFUXFFO BOE ZFBST *G * EP OPU XBOU UP IBWF UIF USFBTVSZ CMPDLFE GPS UPP MPOH B QFSJPE * XJMM VTF UIJT DSJUFSJPO BOE * XJMM JOWFTU JO UIF QSPKFDU UIBU IBT UIF GBTUFTU i1BZ̓#BDLw The discounting principle is developed by Thomas VallĂŠe: discounting a future value (amount or periodic flow); opposite operation to capitalisation (interest rates). On this question, we refer the reader to the JTD 2011 training (Beurier et al., 2012).

5PEBZ UIF USFOE JO EFWFMPQFE DPVOUSJFT JT UP DPOTJEFS B EJTDPVOU SBUF PG UP

5IF EJTDPVOU SBUF JT ÜYFE BU 5IJT SBUF XBT EFDJEFE NPSF UIBO ZFBST BHP JO BO JOøBUJPOBSZ DPOUFYU " SFDFOU SFQPSU recommends that the rate be reduced in

Table

UIF MPOH UFSN UP PS BDDPSEJOH UP UIF MFOHUI PG UIF QSPKFDU &DPMPHJTUT BSF very critiical of this because it goes against TVTUBJOBCMF EFWFMPQNFOU JG JO B ZFBST time the cost linked to flooding damage is &63 CJMMJPO IPX NVDI BSF ZPV SFBEZ UP QBZ UPEBZ UP BWPJE UIBU *G UIF EJTDPVOU SBUF JT IJHI &63̓ ̓CJMMJPO JO ZFBST SFQSFTFOUT BMNPTU [FSP UPEBZ FDPOPNJD SBUJPOBMJUZ would be to do nothing.

After the amount of treasury net flows BOE UIF USFBTVSZ QBZ CBDL QFSJPE BOPUIFS DSJUFSJPO JT UIF /FU 1SFTFOU 7BMVF /17 *U JT the cost of the initial investment and the amount of the discounted values of costs and the advantages for each period included in the period of calculation.

23 NPV Comparison of the Two Projects YearsÂ

0Â

1Â

2Â

3Â

4Â

5Â

6Â

SÂ

FNT Project 1Â

­120Â

+32Â

+32Â

+32Â

+32Â

+32Â

+32Â

72Â

FNT Project 2Â

­180Â

+42Â

+42Â

+42Â

+42Â

+42Â

+90Â

120Â

Discounting factorÂ

1Â

0,926Â

0,857Â

0,794Â

0,735Â

0,681Â

0,630Â

Discounted FNT Project 1Â

­120Â

+29,6Â

+27,4Â

+25,4Â

+23,5Â

+21Â ,8Â

+20,2Â

NPV=Â 27,9Â

Discounted FNT Project 2Â

­180Â

+38,9Â

+36,0Â

+33,3Â

+30,9Â

+28,6Â

+56,7Â

NPV=Â 44,4Â

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

8JUI B EJTDPVOU SBUF PG XF ĂśOE UIF TVN PG̓OFU øPXT PG USFBTVSZ CVU JG XF UBLF B SBUF PG̓ XF PCUBJO B /17 PG GPS UIF ĂśSTU QSPKFDU BOE GPS UIF TFDPOE

øPXT JO SFMBUJPO UP QSPKFDUT UIBU IBWF WFSZ big future flows. We can also update the time limits for the SFDVQFSBUJPO PG DBQJUBM i1BZ #BDLw UIF UJNF limit for recuperation will be longer since tomorrow’s flows are worth less than today’s. The length of reimbursement of the initial sum will be longer.

*G UIF /17 JT QPTJUJWF UIFO UIF QSPKFDU JT eligible. We understand that this criterion GBWPVST QSPKFDUT UIBU IBWF CJH JNNFEJBUF

Table

24 Impact of Discounting Rate on Recuperation PeriodÂ

0Â

1Â

2Â

3Â

4Â

FNTÂ

­220Â

70Â

80Â

100Â

110Â

Cumulated FNTÂ

­220Â

­150Â

­70Â

+30Â

+140Â

Discounting rateÂ

1Â

(1/1+0,1)Â =Â 0.909Â

(1/1+0,1)2Â =Â 0.826Â

(1/1+0,1)3Â =Â 0.751Â

(1/1+0,1)4Â =Â 0.683Â

Discounted FNT Â

­220Â

63.6Â

66.1Â

75.1Â

75.1Â

Cumulated discounted FNTÂ

­220Â

­156.4Â

­90.3Â

­15.2Â

+59.9Â

Source: Author’s construction.

5IF /17 JT TFOTJUJWF UP UIF TJ[F PG UIF JOJUJBM QSPKFDUT MFU VT UBLF UXP QSPKFDUT UIBU ZJFME PG JOJUJBM JOWFTUNFOU FWFSZ UXP ZFBST

Table

25 Impact of Project Size YearsÂ

0Â

1Â

2Â

‌Â

10Â

Â

FNT Project 1Â

­100Â

+20Â

+20Â

‌Â

+20Â

+100Â

FNT Project 2Â

­200Â

+40Â

+40Â

‌Â

+40Â

+200Â

Discounting coefficientÂ

1Â

0.917Â

0.842Â

‌Â

0.422Â

6.42Â

Discounted FNT 1Â

­100Â

+20Â XÂ 0.917Â +20Â XÂ 0.842Â

‌Â

+20Â XÂ 0.422Â

NPVÂ =Â 28.40Â

Discounted FNT 2Â

­200Â

+40Â XÂ 0.917Â +40Â XÂ 0.842Â

‌Â

+40Â XÂ 0.422Â

NPVÂ =Â 56.80Â

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

5IF TFDPOE QSPKFDU XIPTF JOJUJBM JOWFTUNFOU JT UXJDF BT IJHI IBT B /17 UIBU JT UXJDF BT CJH 5IJT BMMPXT VT DPNQBSF UXP QSPKFDUT UIBU XFSF EJòFSFOU BU UIF CFHJOOJOH FJUIFS CZ UIFJS TJ[F PS CZ UIFJS MFOHUI JO UJNF *O 'SBODF UIF FOUFSQSJTF DIPPTFT JUT NFUIPE PG BNPSUJTFNFOU PG UIF JOJUJBM JOWFTUNFOU straight-line – identical sum for the period – PS EJHSFTTJWF *G UIF BNPSUJTFNFOU JT EJHSFT

Box

TJWF UIF FOUFSQSJTF XJMM OPU QBZ BOZ UBYFT BU the beginning but a lot at the end. 8IFO UIF QSPKFDUT MBTU GPS EJòFSFOU MFOHUIT PG UJNF IPX DBO XF DPNQBSF UIFN 8F HFOFSBMMZ DBMDVMBUF UIF FRVJWBMFOU BOOVJUZ JG XF LOPX UIF UPUBM WBMVF PG UIF QSPKFDU XF DBMDVMBUF PWFS UIF QSPKFDU T MFOHUI XIBU JU XJMM yield each year.

17 Equivalent Annuities

Criterion of equivalent annuity (EA): EA = NPV(project) / A J O

A J O =discount factor with a rate i over n years Example: i*w =12% - Project A (5 years) NPV(A) = 442 - Project B (10 years) NPV(B) = 478

Source: Author’s construction.

8JUI B EJTDPVOU SBUF PG UIBU JT UIF FRVJWBMFOU PG SFDFJWJOH FWFSZ ZFBS with no initial investment. We thus see that QSPKFDU JT NPSF JOUFSFTUJOH UIBO QSPKFDU Another criterion used is the profitability JOEFY 5IJT DSJUFSJPO IBT UIF BEWBOUBHF

Box

PG FMJNJOBUJOH UIF TJ[F FòFDU PG UIF JOJUJBM QSPKFDU ̓8F DPNQBSF UIF WBMVF PG UIF QSPKFDU UP UIF TJ[F PG UIF JOJUJBM JOWFTUNFOU *G UIF QSPKFDU JT FMJHJCMF BOE IBT B QPTJUJWF /17 UIJT JOEJDBUPS JT TVQFSJPS UP JG JU JT OFHBUJWF UIF JOEFY JT MPXFS UIBO

18 Criterion of Profitability Index (PI)

Example of project 2: recuperation of the value at period 6 net of taxation and discounted => * = 180 – (80 x 0.6 x 0.63) = 149.76

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

1SPKFDU ZJFMET DFOUT GPS FWFSZ &63 JOWFTUFE ̓ 1SPKFDU JT NPSF DPNQMJDBUFE because the investment is understood as the net resale investment – irreversible JOWFTUNFOU XIJDI JT SFBMMZ iMPTUw 5IF QSPKFDU DPTU &63 NJMMJPO CVU XJUI BO &63̓ ̓NJMMJPO SFTBMF JO QFSJPE XJUI UBYFT UP QBZ BOE EJTDPVOUJOH UIJT DPSSFTQPOET öOBMMZ UP B OFU DPTU BU UIF PVUTFU PG &63 ̓NJMMJPO 5IF TFDPOE QSPKFDU ZJFMET ̓ DFOUT GPS FBDI FVSP JOWFTUFE *U JT FWJEFOU UIBU UIFSF JT B

Graph

EJTDPVOU SBUF UIBU XJMM SFTVMU JO QSPKFDU CFJOH MFTT QSPöUBCMF UIBO QSPKFDU̓ Another criterion to eliminate sensitivity to the discount rate is to ask what is the NBYJNVN SBUF UIF QSPKFDU DBO UPMFSBUF Depending on the value of the discount SBUF UIF /17 IBT B EFDSFBTJOH DVSWF BOE becomes negative – initial investment is not reimbursed.

39 Criterion for the Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

NPV

IRR

The IRR is the discounting rate that annuls a project’s NPV: i so that VAN = 0, with: Source: Author’s construction.

*O UIF FYUSFNF XIFO UIF EJTDPVOU SBUF JT JOöOJUF UIF POMZ WBMVF PG UIF QSPKFDU UIBU remains is the initial investment. There is a EJTDPVOU SBUF SFGFSSFE UP BT UIF *OUFSOBM 3BUF PG 3FUVSO *33 XIJDI JT TVDI UIBU UIF /17 JT PG [FSP WBMVF *U JT UIF EJTDPVOUJOH SBUF UIBU FRVBMJTFT UIF WBMVF PG UIF JOJUJBM JOWFTUNFOU BOE UIF øPXT PG OFU ZJFME UIF IJHIFS UIF *33 UIF NPSF JOUFSFTUJOH UIF QSPKFDU

An implementation is proposed to the trainees who must carry out by group NPV and IRR calculations with the Excel software programme.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

5IF VODFSUBJOUZ FYJTUT BOE JT NFBTVSBCMF o FYJTUFODF PG B MBX PG PCKFDUJWF QSPCBCJMJUZ

Uncertain Non-Probalisable Future Analysis [Sophie Pardo] -FU VT OPX UBLF B MPPL BU B XBZ PG UBLJOH VODFSUBJOUZ JOUP BDDPVOU UIF NPSF UJNF QBTTFT UIF HSFBUFS UIF SJTL PG VODFSUBJOUZ 5XP̓UZQFT PG TJUVBUJPO NBZ CF EJTUJOHVJTIFE

.PSF UIBO BOZUIJOH JU JT JNQPSUBOU UP EJTUJOHVJTI UXP TUSBUFHJFT UIF DIPJDFT BOE the states of nature (or states of the world) UIBU JOEJDBUF UIF EJòFSFOU QPTTJCJMJUJFT UIBU BSF HPJOH UP IBQQFO BU UIF EBUFT FUD

- We know that there is uncertainty but are incapable of measuring it – no probability law;

-FU VT UBLF UIF FYBNQMF PG B WBDDJOBUJPO campaign.

Box

19 Introductory Example

A country’s population is decimated by a virus with two strains, I and II. A person is never attacked by the two strains together. There exist two vaccinations (A and B). Their efficiency against the strains of the virus is described in the tables below. For medical (or budgetary) reasons, a person can only receive one vaccine. How can we vaccinate the population to protect it in the best way?

Source: Author’s construction.

These two possibilities represent the VODFSUBJOUZ PG PVS EFDJTJPO BU UIF UJNF PG EFDJEJOH BCPVU UIF WBDDJOBUJPO XF do not know which strain will be present JO *O PSEFS UP DIPPTF XF MPPL BU UIF FóDJFODZ BTTPDJBUFE XJUI DIPJDFT " BOE # 7BDDJOF " JT FóDJFOU BHBJOTU WJSVT * CVU̓ POMZ FóDJFOU BHBJOTU WJSVT ** 7BDDJOF̓# JT̓ FóDJFOU BHBJOTU WJSVT * CVU FóDJFOU BHBJOTU WJSVT ** 8IJDI XPVME ZPV DIPPTF We do not know the probability of being BòFDUFE CZ POF PG UIF UXP WJSVTFT 4PNF people have chosen vaccine A because it is FóDJFOU BHBJOTU WJSVT * BOE BHBJOTU

WJSVT ** JUT NJOJNVN FóDJFODZ JT IJHIFS UIBO UIBU PG WBDDJOF # 5IJT JT BO FYBNQMF PG the MaxMin criterion. Those who have taken WBDDJOF # IBWF SFBTPOFE JO UIF PQQPTJUF XBZ they have taken the best result and chosen UIF CFTU PG UIF CFTU DBTFT Maximax 'JOBMMZ UIPTF XIP IBWF DIPTFO OFJUIFS * OPS ** XJTI UP UBLF JOUP BDDPVOU CPUI UIF NBYJNVN (optimistic solution) and the minimum (pessimistic solution). 5IJT FYBNQMF TIPXT UIBU JU JT EJóDVMU UP decide in the absence of probabilities; with UIF TBNF TIBSFE JOGPSNBUJPO DIPJDFT BSF EJòFSFOU 5IF̓DIPJDF PG UIF EFDJTJPO DSJUFSJPO depends on the individual.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

The commonest criteria used to decide in VODFSUBJOUZ BSF UIF GPMMPXJOH 5IF PQUJNJTUJD DSJUFSJPO .BYJ.BY GPS benefits) or MinMin (for losses); 8BME T DSJUFSJPO JU JT B QFTTJNJTUJD DSJUFSJPO - We take the minimum in each strategy BOE XF DIPPTF UIF NBYJNVN BNPOH UIF NJOJNVNT o .BY.JO TUSBUFHZ " GPS FYBNQMF *G XF BSF UBMLJOH BCPVU HBJO JU JT .BY.JO JG XF BSF UBMLJOH BCPVU DPTUT UIF

Table

XPSTU TJUVBUJPO XF DIPPTF UIF TUSBUFHZ UIBU HJWFT UIF TNBMMFTU PG UIFTF NBYJNVNT UIF MFBTU DPTUMZ PG UIF NBYJNVNT 5IF JEFB JT UP NJOJNJTF UIF XPSTU DBTF SBUIFS UIBO̓NBYJNJTF UIF CFTU DBTF )VSXJD[ T DSJUFSJPO NPEFSBUF PQUJNJTN -BQMBDF T DSJUFSJPO OFVUSBMJUZ FRVJQSPCB bility; 4BWBHF DSJUFSJPO .JO.BY SFHSFUT -FU NF JMMVTUSBUF UIJT

26 Wald’s Criterion. Cost/State of the World Matrix IRR

Note: 3R: MaxMax = 16. Source: Author’s construction.

8F IBWF UIF ( ( ( DPODFSOJOH UIF *33 UIF EBUB & & BOE & TQFDJGZ UIF TUBUFT of nature of the uncertainty. The gains of TUSBUFHZ BSF FRVBM UP JG TUBUF PDDVST JG TUBUF PDDVST BOE JG TUBUF UISFF PDDVST *O TUSBUFHZ UIF NJOJNVN HBJO JT FRVBM UP GPS TUSBUFHZ UIF XFBLFTU *33 JT PCUBJOFE GPS TUBUF BOE JT FRVBM UP GPS TUSBUFHZ UIF NJOJNBM *33 JT 6TJOH 8BME T DSJUFSJPO XF XPVME PQU GPS 4USBUFHZ XIBUFWFS UIF TUBUF PG UIF XPSME XF FOTVSF UIBU XF XJMM OPU IBWF B QSPKFDU XJUI BO *33 MPXFS UIBO CVU JO SFUVSO XF XJMM OFWFS IBWF NPSF UIBO

5IFSF BSF XJEF HBQT CFUXFFO UIF NBYJNB and the minima; this raises the problem of volatility. )VSXJD[ T DSJUFSJPO JEFOUJöFT B NPEFSBUFMZ PQUJNJTUJD TUSBUFHZ *G XF UBLF BOPUIFS MPPL BU PVS öSTU FYBNQMF BCPVU WBDDJOFT JU NBZ correspond to individuals who were not able UP DIPPTF CFUXFFO " BOE #

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

“I” TUSBUFHZ OVNCFS “j” TUBUF PG OBUVSF “M” ̓NBUSJY

For each of the strategies “I� XF XJMM VTF B NBYJNVN BOE NJOJNVN SFTVMU “!� weights UIF NBYJNVN BOE o !) the minimum. )VSXJD[ T DSJUFSJPO DBMDVMBUFT UIF NBYJNVN weighted sum by ! and the minimum XFJHIUFE TVN CZ o ! LOPXJOH UIBU ! has

Table

WBMVFT CFUXFFO BOE “!� is interpreted BT CFJOH UIF EFDJEFS T EFHSFF PG PQUJNJTN the closer ! JT UP UIF NPSF PQUJNJTUJD UIF decider. The strategies are optimised for the decision.

27 Hurwicz’s Criterion

IRRÂ

Note: with ι =0.5 Source: Author’s construction.

5IF WBMVFT DPSSFTQPOE UP UIF QSPKFDUT whereas â€œ!â€? EFQFOET PO UIF EFDJEFS *G XF IBWF̓ BO JOEJWJEVBM XJUI EFHSFF PG PQUJNJTN XF UBLF UIF NBYJNVN PG TUSBUFHZ̓ ̓ UIF NJOJNVN PG UIJT TBNF TUSBUFHZ XFJHIUFE CZ ! BOE ! PS FUD *O PSEFS UP NBLF NZ EFDJTJPO * NBYJNJTF UIFTF WBMVFT UIF IJHIFTU QPTTJCMF WBMVF JT TP * DIPPTF QSPKFDU [Thomas VallĂŠe] The choice of “!â€? is complicated because it is often endogenous to the data of the problem â€“ the case of vaccines. Another FYBNQMF JT XIFO ZPV HBNCMF XJUI NPOFZ UIBU JT OPU ZPVS PXO ZPV IBWF BO “!â€? that is higher than if you were playing with your own money.

[Sophie Pardo] -FU VT FYBNJOF -BQMBDF T DSJUFSJPO XIJDI JT TJNQMF BOE PGUFO VTFE SFGFSSFE UP BT UIF DSJUFSJPO PG JOTVĂłDJFOU SFBTPO The criteria we have already looked at do OPU JOUFHSBUF QSPCBCJMJUZ -BQMBDF T DSJUFSJPO is interested in looking at the average result GPS FBDI PG UIF TUSBUFHJFT XIJDI JT UIF TBNF as considering the states of the world as FRVJQSPCBCMF *O UIF FYBNQMF CFMPX FBDI state has a probability of one third. For QSPKFDU̓ UIF BWFSBHF HJWFT 'PS QSPKFDU JU JT BOE GPS QSPKFDU ̓ 5IF̓ EFDJTJPO JT FTUBCMJTIFE GSPN UIF NBYJNVN PG UIFTF WBMVFT 8F NBLF UIF implicit hypothesis that each state of nature has as much chance of occurring as the PUIFST *G TUBUF IBT JO SFBMJUZ DIBODF PG PDDVSSJOH UIFO UIF DIPJDF MFBET UP B SFTVMU CFMPX XIBU XBT GPSFTFFO *O UIF BCTFODF PG

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

QSPCBCJMJUZ UIJT DSJUFSJPO JT BT SFMFWBOU BT UIF others. [Thomas VallÊe] 'PS B DPTU NBUSJY XF XJMM UBLF UIF TUSBUFHZ that has the lowest average cost.

Table

[Sophie Pardo] 4BWBHF T DSJUFSJPO .JO.BY 3FHSFUT 8F BSF interested in the regrets resulting from a choice.

28 Savage’s Criterion

IRRÂ

Source: Author’s construction.

*O UIJT DBTF UIF TUBUFT PG OBUVSF BSF analysed one after another. We look at the SFTVMUT JG TUBUF PDDVST UIFO JG TUBUF PDDVST FUD *G̓TUBUF PDDVST UIFO UIF CFTU *33 SFTVMU JT FRVBM UP *G TUBUF PDDVST UIFO UIF CFTU TUSBUFHZ JT TUJMM QSPKFDU *33 *G GPS FYBNQMF TUBUF PDDVST UIFO UIF CFTU TUSBUFHZ JT *33 FRVBMT XIJDI JT UIF SFTVMU GPS QSPKFDU̓ 8F VTF UIFTF SFTVMUT UIBU BSF UIF NBYJNB for each of the states. *G XF PQU GPS TUSBUFHZ BOE UIF TUBUF PG OBUVSF̓ PDDVST UIFO UIF SFHSFU JT UIF EJòFSFODF̓ CFUXFFO UIF NBYJNVN QPTTJCMF value in this state of nature and the result PCUBJOFE XJUI̓ TUSBUFHZ JO UIF TUBUF NBY̓*33 UIFSF JT [FSP SFHSFU *G UIF DIPJDF DPODFSOT TUSBUFHZ BOE TUBUF PDDVST NBY̓ *33 SFHSFU JT BMTP [FSP UIFSF 'JOBMMZ JG XF BSF JO̓ TUSBUFHZ XJUI B TUBUF NBY̓*33̓ UIF SFHSFU JT FRVBM UP *33 PG TUSBUFHZ̓ JO TUBUF

0ODF UIF SFHSFU NBUSJY IBT CFFO DPOTUSVDUFE XF VTF UIF .JOJ.BY DSJUFSJPO UP NBLF B DIPJDF 8IBU JT UIF NBYJNVN SFHSFU BTTPDJBUFE XJUI̓FBDI TUSBUFHZ 8F SFUBJO UIF TUSBUFHZ UIBU HJWFT UIF MPXFTU NBYJNVN JO UIJT DBTF JU JT TUSBUFHZ Another way of looking at this criterion is to MPPL BU BWFSBHF SFHSFU XF DBMDVMBUF UIF TVN of regrets for each strategy and we select the NJOJNVN o IFSF TUSBUFHZ UPUBM SFHSFU PG DPNQBSFE UP GPS TUSBUFHZ BOE GPS TUSBUFHZ Uncertain Probalisable Future Analysis [Sophie Pardo] *U JT DBMMFE iSJTLw JO FDPOPNZ BOE DPODFSOT situations where the uncertain is QSPCBCJMJTBCMF *U ĂśOBMMZ CPJMT EPXO UP knowing the probability of each state of nature.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

-PPLJOH BU UIF SFTVMUT PCUBJOFE JO FBDI PG the states of nature weighted by the number of times the state of nature is observed o̓NBUIFNBUJDBM FYQFDUBUJPO

- xi SFTVMU BDDPSEJOH UP B HJWFO TUBUF PG OBUVSF - ni OVNCFS PG UJNFT UIF TUBUF PG OBUVSF J occurs (probability); 5P UIF EFOPNJOBUPS OVNCFS PG UPUBM observations. 8F PCTFSWF GPS FYBNQMF /17T PG BOE 5IFTF PCTFSWBUJPOT BSF NBEF BOE ̓UJNFT SFTQFDUJWFMZ

#Z BEEJOH FYQFDUBUJPO XF JOUSPEVDF UIF idea that we do not perfectly know the flows HFOFSBUFE CVU UIBU UIF FYQFDUBUJPO GBDUPS gives us a rough idea of them. *O PSEFS UP UBLF B DMPTF MPPL BU UIF UBLJOH JOUP BDDPVOU PG SJTL XF JOUSPEVDF TUBOEBSE deviation – volatility when we are dealing with financial assets. The idea of volatility is UP BEE TPNF JOGPSNBUJPO UP FYQFDUBUJPO CZ

[Thomas Vallée] &YBNQMF * XBOU B DJOFNB JO NZ DJUZ * UBLF B MPPL BU UIF /17T PG DJOFNBT JO UXFOUZ DJUJFT TVSSPVOEJOH NJOF UJNFT ZJFMET GPVS UJNFT ZJFMET BOE UJNFT ZJFMET [Sophie Pardo] 5IF DBMDVMBUJPO PG UIF FYQFDUFE /17 UFMMT VT iI have observed a value of 10 four times, a value of 20 four times and the value of 30 twelve timesw UIF XIPMF JT UIFO EJWJEFE CZ UIF OVNCFS PG PCTFSWBUJPOT 5IF UPUBM JT 5IF WBMVF BOE XBT PCTFSWFE JO PG DBTFT BOE UIF WBMVF JO PG DBTFT

DBMDVMBUJOH UIF BWFSBHF EFWJBUJPO UIBU FYJTUT CFUXFFO FYQFDUBUJPO BOE BMM QPTTJCMF WBMVFT We measure the dispersion of the points UIBU XF PCTFSWF o XIFO * PCTFSWF B WBMVF PG * IBWF B DFSUBJO EFWJBUJPO CFUXFFO UIJT observed value and the average value that FYQFDUBUJPO SFQSFTFOUT Reminder of variance (the standard deviation PG UIF TRVBSF SPPU PG WBSJBODF

- xi SFQSFTFOUT UIF PCTFSWBUJPOT BOE JO UIF FYBNQMF - (xi-E) is the deviation between the observed values ; - E JT UIF DBMDVMBUFE FYQFDUBUJPO &BDI EFWJBUJPO JT XFJHIUFE CZ QSPCBCJMJUZ XF̓HJWF NPSF XFJHIU UP UIF WBMVF PCTFSWFE JO PG DBTFT UIBO UP UIF WBMVF PCTFSWFE JO PG DBTFT 5IJT HJWFT UIF FYQFDUBUJPO PG UIF EFWJBUJPO GSPN UIF NFBO

*G B QSPKFDU " IBT B öYFE /17 PG UIF QSPKFDU JT DFSUBJO XIBUFWFS UIF TUBUF PG OBUVSF UIFSF JT OP SJTL 5IF TUBOEBSE EFWJBUJPO JT

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

*G B QSPKFDU # IBT BO /17 PG BOE B WPMBUJMJUZ PG UIJT JNQMJFT UIBU PO BWFSBHF UIF SFTVMU JT XJUI B EFWJBUJPO PG NPSF PS MFTT 5IF UXP QSPKFDUT BSF OPU FRVJWBMFOU .BSLPWJU[ T DSJUFSJPO QSPWJEFT B TZOUIFTJT UIF /17 FYQFDUBUJPO NJOVT UIF TUBOEBSE deviation (") XFJHIUFE CZ B DPFĂłDJFOU Âľ that SFQSFTFOUT UIF EFDJEFS T BWFSTJPO UP SJTL &YQFDUBUJPO XFJHIUJOH 3JTL WPMBUJMJUZ - M = aversion to risk parameter. *G * BN BWFSTF UP SJTL * XJMM DIPPTF UIF QSPKFDU̓ UIBU HJWFT NF TVĂłDJFOU FYQFDUBUJPO of gain to compensate the taking of risk. *O̓PSEFS UP EFDJEF UIF GVODUJPO FYQFDUBUJPO̓o Âľ Y WPMBUJMJUZ JT NBYJNJTFE [Thomas VallĂŠe] 8F POMZ UBLF BO JOUFSFTU JO QSPKFDU # JG Âľ is negative. A negative Âľ signifies an attraction for risk. The workshop is given some statistical processing from the examples and criteria presented during the day.

Table

Day 5, Friday 26th [Sophie Pardo] 5BCMF HJWFT UIF EFTDSJQUJPO PG UXP QSPKFDUT " BOE # UIF OFU øPX JT DPOTJEFSFE BT EJTDPVOUFE UIF TFDPOE DPMVNO JOEJDBUFT the probability of the states of nature each year. 1SPKFDU " *OWFTUNFOU JT VOJUT QSPCBCJMJUZ JT o UIF JOWFTUNFOU JT DFSUBJO *O ZFBS XF JOUSPEVDF VODFSUBJOUZ 5XP øPXT BSF QPTTJCMF XJUI B QSPCBCJMJUZ PG BOE XJUI B QSPCBCJMJUZ PG JO ZFBS XJUI B QSPCBCJMJUZ PG BOE XJUI B QSPCBCJMJUZ PG 5IF QSPCBCJMJUZ JT BOOVBM UIF TVN PG QSPCBCJMJUJFT QFS ZFBS JT FRVBM UP QSPCBCJMJUZ JO ZFBS EPFT OPU EFQFOE PO XIBU IBQQFOFE JO ZFBS 5IF QSPCBCJMJUJFT BSF JOEFQFOEFOU o̓JEFN GPS QSPKFDU # cf %JBHSBN -FU VT BOBMZTF UIJT SFQSFTFOUBUJPO JT UIF JOWFTUNFOU PG XIJDI UIF QSPCBCJMJUZ JT FRVBM UP *O ZFBS UIFSF BSF UXP QPTTJCMF TUBUFT PG OBUVSF BOE XJUI B SFTQFDUJWF QSPCBCJMJUZ PG BOE 5IF TJUVBUJPO JT JEFOUJDBM JO ZFBS

29 Case Study FNTÂ AÂ

ProbabilityÂ

FNTÂ BÂ

ProbabilityÂ

Year 0 (invt)Â

300Â

1Â

300Â

1Â

Year 1Â

160Â

0.6Â

170Â

0.5Â

175Â

0.4Â

200Â

0.5Â

150Â

0.4Â

125Â

0.4Â

160Â

0.6Â

145Â

0.6Â

Year 2Â

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 23 Tree Representation, Project A Year 0Â

Year 1Â

Year 2Â

NPVÂ

E(FNTa,0) = ­300 x 1 = ­300 E(FNTa,1) = (160 x 0,6) + (175 x 0,4) = 166 E(FNTa,2) = (150 x 0,4) + (160 x 0,6) = 156 E(VANb) = ­300 + 185 + 137 = 22  Note: NPVJ B : i designates the possible scenarios, a designates project A. Source: Author’s construction.

0QUJPO 'PS FBDI ZFBS XF DBMDVMBUF UIF FYQFDUBUJPO GPS OFU øPXT 'PS FYBNQMF JO ZFBS & '/5a Y Y *O ZFBS & '/5a Y Y &YQFDUBUJPO JO ZFBS JT JOEFQFOEFOU JU does not depend on what occurred in the first year. 5IF /17 FYQFDUBUJPO GPS UIF XIPMF PG UIF QSPKFDU JT UIVT UIF TVN PG UIF IPQFE GPS WBMVFT FBDI ZFBS 5IF WBMVF EPFT OPU TIPX UIF EJòFSFOU TDFOBSJPT 0QUJPO "OPUIFS XBZ PG MPPLJOH BU UIJT USFF BMMPXT VT UP UIFO TIPX UIF EJòFSFOU QPTTJCMF TDFOBSJPT 0O UIJT QSPKFDU USFF there are four possible paths. The first path HFOFSBUFT < > XF IBWF

B HBJO PG BOE UIJT QBUI IBT B QSPCBCJMJUZ PG < Y > PG PDDVSSJOH 5IF TFDPOE QBUI HFOFSBUFT BO /17 PG XJUI B QSPCBCJMJUZ FUD 8F PCUBJO B QSPCBCJMJUZ of all the possible gains according to the chosen path. *O UIJT DBTF POF EFDJTJPO JT NBEF PODF BOE GPS BMM UIF EFDJTJPO XIFUIFS UP JOWFTU PS OPU JO ZFBS 8IBU PDDVST JO ZFBS BOE POMZ EFQFOET PO UIF TUBUFT PG OBUVSF BOE OPU PO the decision. Chance determines what occurs JO ZFBST BOE The “scenario by scenario� method of FYBNJOBUJPO BMMPXT VT UP PCUBJO B TUBOEBSE deviation with the contribution to the probability of each scenario.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Table

30 Calculation of the Standard Deviation of Projects A and B

PROJECTÂ AÂ NPVi,aÂ

NPVa­ E(NPVa)Â

[‌] Â

PiÂ

[‌]  x PiÂ

10Â

­12Â

144Â

0.24Â

34.56Â

20Â

­2Â

4Â

0.36Â

1.44Â

25Â

3Â

9Â

0.16Â

1.44Â

35Â

13Â

169Â

0.24Â

40.56Â

TOTALÂ

78Â

PROJECTÂ BÂ NPVi,bÂ

NPVb­ E(NPVb)Â

[‌] Â

PiÂ

[‌]  x PiÂ

­ 5Â

­27Â

729Â

0.2Â

145.8Â

15Â

­7Â

49Â

0.3Â

14.7Â

25Â

3Â

9Â

0.2Â

1.8Â

45Â

23Â

529Â

0.3Â

158.7Â

TOTALÂ

321Â

Source: Author’s construction.

This table allows us to calculate variance. 5IF ĂśSTU DPMVNO QSFTFOUT UIF /17 PCUBJOFE BDDPSEJOH UP UIF EJòFSFOU TUBUFT PG OBUVSF UIF TFDPOE DPMVNO QSFTFOUT UIF /17 NJOVT FYQFDUBUJPO o UIBU JT UP TBZ UIF EFWJBUJPO GSPN UIF NFBO GPS FYBNQMF JG XF PCUBJO UIF WBMVF̓ UIF EFWJBUJPO GSPN UIF NFBO WBMVF JT FRVBM UP 5IF UIJSE DPMVNO DPSSFTQPOET UP UIF TRVBSF PG UIF second column and the fourth presents the QSPCBCJMJUZ PG FBDI TUBUF PG OBUVSF 'JOBMMZ the last column presents the probability NVMUJQMJFE CZ WBSJBODF XIJDI BMMPXT VT UP PCUBJO ĂśOBMMZ UIF UPUBM WBSJBODF PG UIF QSPKFDUT according to the probability of each state of nature.

'PS QSPKFDU " UIF TUBOEBSE EFWJBUJPO DPSSFTQPOET UP BCPVU Ćƒ *G XF NBLF UIF TBNF DBMDVMBUJPOT GPS QSPKFDU̓ # ̓ UIF TUBOEBSE EFWJBUJPO JT 1SPKFDU # IBT B MFWFM PG SJTL BOE WPMBUJMJUZ UXJDF BT IJHI BT̓QSPKFDU " [Thomas VallĂŠe] This can also be seen in the distribution of øPXT GSPN UP JO QSPKFDU " GSPN UP GPS QSPKFDU # [Sophie Pardo] 5IF UXP QSPKFDUT IBWF UIF TBNF FYQFDUBUJPO CVU UIF SJTL JT IJHIFS GPS QSPKFDU # 5IF USFOE XPVME CF UP DIPPTF QSPKFDU "

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[Thomas VallĂŠe] 5ISFF PVU PG GPVS UJNFT QSPKFDU " XJOT PWFS QSPKFDU # ZPV IBWF UP MJLF UBLJOH SJTLT UP hope that the only scenario that yields more WBMVF̓ PDDVST [Sophie Pardo] 5IJT FYBNQMF BMMPXT VT UP FYBNJOF IPX UP integrate states of nature into a description PG QSPKFDUT XJUI øPXT BOE OPUF UIBU UIF FYQFDUBUJPO DSJUFSJPO XIJDI JT PGUFO SFUBJOFE BT UIF EFDJTJPO DSJUFSJPO JT OPU BMXBZT TVĂłDJFOU BT JU EPFT OPU UBLF JOUP BDDPVOU UIF WPMBUJMJUZ PG UIF QSPKFDU 5IJT CSJOHT VT UP UIF .BSLPWJU[ DSJUFSJPO that takes into account both hope and the standard deviation (") weighted by a risk BWFSTJPO DPFĂłDJFOU Âľ *G XF BQQMZ UIJT DSJUFSJPO . & /17 #"

Box

8F XJMM DIPPTF QSPKFDU " TJODF UIF FYQFDUB UJPO JT UIF TBNF JU JT OFDFTTBSZ UP IBWF B OFHBUJWF SJTL BWFSTJPO DPFĂłDJFOU JO PSEFS UP QSFGFS QSPKFDU # *O PVS FYBNQMF Ma ÂľĆƒ Mb ÂľĆƒ 5IF DPFĂłDJFOU UIVT JOUSPEVDFT UIF QSFGFS ence for the decider’s risk; this shows why two deciders who have access to the same JOGPSNBUJPO NBZ NBLF EJòFSFOU DIPJDFT This is determining. We can break down the stages into a EFDJTJPO NBLJOH DIBJO .BSLPWJU[ QSFTFOUFE UISFF SVMFT UP TUVEZ UIFN *G XF EP OPU LOPX UIF SJTL BWFSTJPO DPFĂłDJFOU GPS UIF SJTL Âľ XF NBZ IPXFWFS VTF UIF .BSLPWJU[ DSJUFSJPO UP DPNQBSF UIF QSPKFDUT

20 The Simple Markovitz Criterion

Rules of comparison Rule 1

if

or

Rule 2

if

Rule 2b

if

risk aversion coefficient

Finding the optimal solution entails: Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

3VMF TUBUFT UIBU QSPKFDU l is preferred to QSPKFDU m JG UIF FYQFDUBUJPO PG l is greater UIBO UIBU PG QSPKFDU m and its volatility level lower. This rule is in fact rarely verified as HFOFSBMMZ XIFO B QSPKFDU HFOFSBUFT HSFBUFS FYQFDUBUJPO JU BMTP IBT HSFBUFS WPMBUJMJUZ *G QSPKFDU l IBT B HSFBUFS FYQFDUBUJPO BOE B IJHIFS MFWFM PG SJTL UIBO QSPKFDU m XF CVJME B SBUJP PG FYQFDUBUJPO DPSSFDUFE GPS SJTL *O UIJT FYBNQMF QSPKFDU " JT QSFGFSSFE UP QSPKFDU # BT UIF FYQFDUBUJPO SBUJP PO UIF TUBOEBSE EFWJBUJPO < ƃ > JT IJHIFS UIBO < ƃ > Often in finance we interpret the hope of HBJOT BT SFNVOFSBUJPO BOE UIJT SBUJP BT UIF remuneration by unit of risk. *O BEEJUJPO SVMF C JOUSPEVDFT UIF EFDJEFS T SJTL BWFSTJPO DPFóDJFOU XF UIFO DIPPTF UIF QSPKFDU BDDPSEJOH UP UIF SBUJP PG UIF EJòFSFODF PG IPQFT PWFS UIF EJòFSFODF of standard deviations. This is interpreted BT UIF TVSQMVT̓ SFNVOFSBUJPO PG QSPKFDU l JO SFMBUJPO UP̓ QSPKFDU m DPNQBSFE XJUI UIF TVSQMVT SJTL̓ PG QSPKFDU̓ l in relation to QSPKFDU m. We then look to see if the surplus SFNVOFSBUJPO JT TVóDJFOU UP DPNQFOTBUF UIF TVSQMVT SJTL 5IJT FWBMVBUJPO JT TVCKFDUJWF it depends on the degree of risk aversion (µ). 5IF NPSF SJTL BWFSTF UIF BHFOU UIF IJHIFS UIF SBUJP IF EFNBOET UIVT UIF NPSF IF EFNBOET a surplus of high remuneration in order to be willing to take the risk. According to the value of µ UIF BHFOUT XJMM OPU NBLF UIF TBNF EFDJTJPO *G µ BHFOU OFVUSBM UP SJTL JU JT TVóDJFOU GPS UIF QSPKFDU̓l to provide better remuneration than the QSPKFDU m for the agent to choose it. This rule JT FYBDUMZ UIF TBNF BT UIF NBYJNJTBUJPO PG FYQFDUBUJPO MFTT #" UIBU JT UP TBZ UIF TBNF

BT UIF .BSLPWJU[ DSJUFSJPO XF IBWF BMSFBEZ seen. *O UIF FYBNQMF QSPKFDU " HFOFSBUFT BO /17 PG ̓ XJUI B TUBOEBSE EFWJBUJPO PG QSPKFDU̓ # IBT B /17 FYQFDUBUJPO PG CVU B̓TUBOEBSE EFWJBUJPO PG 8F UIVT IBWF UIBU JT UP TBZ UIF TVSQMVT SFNVOFSBUJPO PG # JO SFMBUJPO UP " PWFS UIF TVSQMVT PG SJTL

5IF EFDJTJPO NBLJOH SVMF TUBUFT UIBU * BN HPJOH UP QSFGFS # UP " JG UIJT SBUJP JT IJHIFS UIBO NZ SJTL BWFSTJPO DPFóDJFOU JO PUIFS XPSET BMM UIF BHFOUT XIPTF SJTL BWFSTJPO DPFóDJFOU JT IJHIFS UIBO BSF HPJOH UP QSFGFS QSPKFDU # 5IPTF XIP BSF NPSF BWFSTF XJUI BO BWFSTJPO DPFóDJFOU IJHIFS UIBO are on the contrary going to prefer the least SJTLZ QSPKFDU "CPWF BMM XF DPOTJEFS UIF QSPKFDU UIBU IBT UIF̓ HSFBUFTU FYQFDUBUJPO BOE UIF MBSHFTU WBSJBODF XF MPPL BU UIF TVSQMVT JU IBT UP CF QPTJUJWF 'JOBMMZ JG B QSPKFDU IBT B HSFBUFS FYQFDUBUJPO BOE B MFTTFS WBSJBODF UIFO JU JT retained by all the agents. This criterion is only VTFE GPS UIF QSPKFDUT UIBU IBWF CPUI MBSHFS FYQFDUBUJPO BOE WBSJBODF [Thomas Vallée] *O PSEFS UP UBLF VODFSUBJOUZ JOUP BDDPVOU let us take a look at some sensitivity and scenario analyses. The general idea is to determine a model of our economy and FYBNJOF IPX B DBMDVMBUJPO PG QSPKFDU WBMVF is sensitive (or not) to a modification of one PS TFWFSBM NBSLFU QBSBNFUFST o QSJDF NBSLFU TIBSF FUD 5IFO XF XJMM TFF UIBOLT UP B .POUF $BSMP BOBMZTJT UIF EJòFSFOU QSPCBCJMJUJFT JO UIF TDFOBSJPT o XJUI XIBU QSPCBCJMJUZ NZ QSPKFDU XJMM HFOFSBUF TVDI PS TVDI B WBMVF

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

*O QSBDUJDF B QSPKFDU EFQFOET PO B HSFBU OVNCFS PG WBSJBCMFT *U JT QPTTJCMF UP RVFTUJPO̓ FBDI WBSJBCMF UIFSFGPSF B EFDJEFS must see where the uncertainty lies in order to study these variables in particular.

Box

Sensitivity analysis aims to identify a form PG FMBTUJDJUZ XIJDI WBSJBCMFT DBO JOøVFODF OFHBUJWFMZ PS QPTJUJWFMZ B QSPKFDU 8IJDI variables are sensitive to change and how EP̓UIFZ JOøVFODF UIF FYQFDUFE SFTVMU

31 Stage 1: Construction of a Deterministic Model Variables Size of market Share of market in % Price in EUR M Variable unit cost in EUR M Annual fixed costs EUR M Investment in EUR M Length of project

Base 10,000 30 2 1 1,791 1,500 5

Source: Author’s construction.

8F JNBHJOF B NBSLFU PG QPUFOUJBM CVZFST XF IPQF UP PCUBJO PG UPUBM EFNBOE FYQFDUFE NBSLFU XF BOUJDJQBUF B

Box

DFSUBJO QSJDF BOE MFWFM PG WBSJBCMF BOE ĂśYFE DPTUT BOE UIBU UIF QSPKFDU XJMM MBTU ĂśWF ZFBST

32 Stage 2: Construction of Scenarios Pessimistic 5,000 20 1.9 1.2 1,891 1,900 5

Realistic 10,000 30 2 1 1,791 1,500 5

Optimistic 20,000 50 2.2 0.8 1,741 1,000 5

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

5XP BQQSPBDIFT BSF FOWJTBHFE UIF QSPKFDU JT TBUJTGBDUPSZ CVU * BOBMZTF UIF JNQBDU PG B modification of one variable on the value of NZ QSPKFDU o TFOTJUJWJUZ BOBMZTJT XF DPOTJEFS the value of the totality of the pessimist scenario and that of the optimist one (“if FWFSZUIJOH HPFT XFMMw o TDFOBSJP BOBMZTJT “What ifâ€?. The approach by scenario is less interesting as it does not allow us to identify which parameter has the greatest impact on a fall or rise in revenue. From the data delivered, Thomas VallĂŠe presents different scenarios in order to examine the project value for each modified variable – simple calculation of the NPV according to the size of the market. Building awareness to automatic calculations via the Excel software programme is also proposed (macro complementary). Following the sensitivity analysis, the trainer initiates the workshop, also using Excel, to a scenario analysis in which the trainees examine the concomitant modification of a group of parameters.

FRVJQSPCBCJMJUZ 5IF .POUF $BSMP BOBMZTJT then proceeds with thousands of random TBNQMJOHT UIF TPGUXBSF QSPHSBNNF ESBXT B WBSJBCMF DPTU B QSJDF BOE B NBSLFU TIBSF JO PSEFS UP IBWF B QPTTJCMF /17 EJTUSJCVUJPO 5IF important stage is to correctly allocate the probability distributions. The trainer proceeds with a demonstration using Excel presenting the RiskSim macro that allows us to obtain directly, for example, histograms and cumulative probabilities. [Sophie Pardo] These methods provide an answer to what XF IBWF BMSFBEZ TFFO B EFDJTJPO JNQMJFT BO evaluation of future flows. This analysis thus allows us to have a distribution of possible flows; it provides greater precision and CFUUFS GPSFDBTUJOH 0O UIF PUIFS IBOE UIFZ are operational tools that we can use both XJUIJO B SFTFBSDI GSBNFXPSL BOE GPS QSPKFDU estimation. [Thomas VallĂŠe]

The Monte Carlo simulation approach is JEFOUJDBM UP UIBU PG UIF TDFOBSJP NBOBHFNFOU we assume that several variables can move UPHFUIFS XIJDI TJHOJĂśFT UIBU XF IBWF UP identify the independent variables and those that are going to change according to the TDFOBSJP CVU XF UIVT EFĂśOF UIF QSPCBCJMJUZ laws of these variables.

5IF &YDFM TPGUXBSF QSPHSBNNF BMMPXT VT to carry out trend repetition with linear SFHSFTTJPO PS XJUI NPWJOH BWFSBHFT *G XF XBOU NPSF QSFDJTF GPSFDBTUJOH XF IBWF UP VTF NPSF FóDJFOU TUBUJTUJDBM TPGUXBSF programmes – Stata GPS FYBNQMF

&YBNQMF *G BO /17 EFQFOET PO B QSJDF B NBSLFU TIBSF BOE B WBSJBCMF DPTU UIFO XF can indicate that the price follows a normal MBX DFOUSFE PO BO BWFSBHF PG UIBU UIF variable price follows a normal law centred PO BO BWFSBHF PG BOE UIBU UIF NBSLFU TIBSF WBSJFT CFUXFFO BOE XJUI

We will conclude with a simple presentation of decision-making trees.

[Sophie Pardo]

#Z VTJOH UIF FYQFDUFE /17 UIF JOJUJBM EFDJTJPO is whether to invest today or never. We limit PVSTFMWFT UP UIF /17 FYQFDUBODZ BT DSJUFSJPO PG DIPJDF UIFSF JT OP QPTTJCMF DIBOHF JO UIF QSPKFDU T MJGF 8F OPX TFFL UP JOUFHSBUF

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

øFYJCJMJUZ CZ DPOTJEFSJOH UIF EJòFSFOU decision-making moments. -FU VT FYBNJOF UIF DPOTUSVDUJPO PG B EFDJTJPO NBLJOH USFF GSPN BO FYBNQMF PG the optimising of an enterprise’s treasury NBOBHFNFOU -FU VT DPOTJEFS UIF ĂśOBODJBM JOWFTUNFOU that consists in placing a certain sum of money “sâ€? in an account remunerated at the monthly rate “râ€? BWFSBHJOH B transaction cost “COâ€? that is independent of the amount invested. The treasurer of an enterprise hesitates before making such an JOWFTUNFOU BT JU JT UIF TVN s UIBU

he has intended to use to eventually pay the supplier; - The supplier might claim the sum due in one month (unfavourable case) or in three months (favourable case); ,OPXJOH UIF TVQQMJFS UIF USFBTVSFS estimates that the probability of the unfavourable case is p < p] is the probability of the favourable state); *T UIF FOUFSQSJTF HPJOH PS OPU HPJOH UP deposit the sum in the bank knowing that r BOE UIBU $ *U JT BTTVNFE that the treasurer is neutral in relation to the risk and that discounting will have no impact on such short durations of placement.

Diagram 24 Decision and Irreversibility Tree FavourableÂ

InvestÂ

UnfavourableÂ

Do not investÂ

Source: Author’s construction.

#Z DPOWFOUJPO JU JT EFDJEFE UIBU B TRVBSF SFQSFTFOUT B EFDJTJPO NBLJOH NPNFOU B circle represents simply the state of nature UIBU SFWFBMT JUTFMG FYQFDUBODZ DBMDVMBUJPO and there is no decision.

At t UIF BHFOU NBLFT B EFDJTJPO UP QMBDF PS OPU UP QMBDF IJT NPOFZ *G IF EPFT OPU JOWFTU IJT̓NPOFZ JU ZJFMET BOE DPTUT *G IPXFWFS IF EFDJEFT UP JOWFTU UIF TVN IF QBZT B ĂśYFE DPTU PG BOE JT UIFO TVCKFDUFE

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

UP VODFSUBJOUZ UIF DBTF JT FJUIFS GBWPVSBCMF and the money is invested for three NPOUIT ̓ QSPCBCJMJUZ PS UIF DBTF JT unfavourable and there is only one month PG QMBDFNFOU QSPCBCJMJUZ .POFZ JOWFTUFE 5IF /17 JT FJUIFS ̓ HBJOFE CZ JOWFTUJOH UIF NPOFZ UISPVHI öYFE DPTUT XJUI B QSPCBCJMJUZ PG PS HBJOFE CZ JOWFTUJOH UIF NPOFZ JO öYFE DPTUT XJUI B QSPCBCJMJUZ PG We resolve the decision by calculating the FYQFDUFE /17 PG UIF QSPKFDU Y Y 5IF /17 JT FRVBM UP JO UIF DBTF PG JOWFTU NFOU BOE [FSP JG XF EP OPU JOWFTU *O UIJT DBTF UIF /17 JT TMJHIUMZ QPTJUJWF *U JT UIVT JO SFBMJUZ complicated to decide.

*G ZPV BSF UIF FOUFSQSJTF ZPV IBWF UIF QPTTJCJMJUZ PG JOWFTUJOH &63 JO B öYFE DPTU BDDPVOU CVU ZPV EP OPU LOPX JG ZPV can invest it for one or three months. One TPMVUJPO JT UP XBJU B NPOUI "GUFS POF NPOUI UIFSF JT OP̓ NPSF VODFSUBJOUZ ZPV FJUIFS reimburse and thus no longer have to do BOZUIJOH PS ZPV BSF OPU PCMJHFE UP SFJNCVSTF BOE ZPV IBWF OP NPSF VODFSUBJOUZ :PV TUJMM IBWF UXP NPOUIT UP JOWFTU UIJT NPOFZ *O UIFTF DPOEJUJPOT UIF̓SFMFWBOU EFDJTJPO JT OPU “Do I invest today or never?” but “Do I invest today or wait?”. At t JO UIF DBTF PG JOWFTUNFOU XF BHBJO öOE UIF TBNF SFTVMUT BT CFGPSF *G UIF XBJU JT PG POF NPOUI UIF VODFSUBJOUZ JT SFTPMWFE JG̓UIF TVQQMJFS IBT OPU BTLFE GPS UIF NPOFZ a decision is possible.

Diagram 25 Decision and Option Value of Waiting Tree Favourable Invest Unfavourable

Invest Favourable

Wait

Do not invest

Unfavourable

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

At t UIF BHFOU LOPXT UIBU IF TUJMM IBT UIF NPOFZ PS OPU BU t UIF BHFOU POMZ IBT QSPCBCJMJUJFT BOE We represent the problem by integrating the fact that we can have a piece of information that arrives at t BOE JU JT UBLFO into account – but that changes nothing about the fact that we must decide at t 8F UIFO SFTPMWF UIF USFF CZ HPJOH CBDLXBSE at t UIF BHFOU IBT B EFDJTJPO UIBU IF DBO only make if he waits. At t UIF BHFOU EFDJEFT XIFUIFS UP JOWFTU PS OPU *O UIF DBTF PG JOWFTUNFOU UIF /17 JT QPTJUJWF *O UIF DBTF PG IBWJOH UP XBJU BOE UIF GBWPVSBCMF DBTF PDDVST UIF SJHIU EFDJTJPO JT UP JOWFTU #VU UIFTF BSF TUBUFT PG OBUVSF UIF GBWPVSBCMF DBTF POMZ BSJTFT JO PG DBTFT The decision to invest at t JT DBSSJFE PVU JO function of this. At t JG * IBWF DIPTFO UP XBJU UIF FYQFDUFE WBMVF JT JO PG DBTFT Y BOE JO PG DBTFT Y UIF i* XBJUw /17 PQUJPO JT )PXFWFS UIF i* JOWFTU JNNFEJBUFMZw PQUJPO at t IBT BO /17 PG 5IF iXBJUw PQUJPO IBT B IJHIFS /17 UIF NPTU BUUSBDUJWF PQUJPO JT identified. [Thomas VallĂŠe] The real options theory allows us to see how we may add options to an economic QSPCMFN̓ XBJU FYQBOTJPO SFTBMF FUD BOE UIF RVFTUJPO UIBU BSJTFT JT UIBU PG UIF WBMPSJTBUJPO PG̓ PQUJPOT (FOFSBMMZ XIFO UIFSF JT VODFSUBJOUZ XF VTF UIF NFUIPET PG financial valorisation to attribute values to these real options.

Reading Texts and Working Papers (www.tamdaoconf.com) Recent Evidence, World Development, Vol. 33, no 7, pp. 1045–1063. CHINN, M. and I. HIRO (2007), A New Measure of Financial Openness, Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis, Volume 10, Issue 3, pp. 309-322. WANG, L.R., C.H. SHEN and C.Y. LIANG (2006), Financial Liberalization under the WTO and Its Relationship with the Macro Economy, TAKATOSHI, I. and A.K. ROSE (eds.), International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17), pp. 315-345.

Bibliography Introduction to Risk: ,/*()5 ' i3JTL 6ODFSUBJOUZ BOE 1SPĂśUi 'JSTU FEJUJPO )BSU 4DIBòOFS .BSY #PTUPO )PVHIUPO .JĂľJO $PNQBOZ 5IF 3JWFSTJEF 1SFTT $BNCSJEHF In the Chapter “Geopolitics and Country Riskâ€?: "(-*&55" . j .BDSPĂ?DPOPNJF ĂśOBODJĂ’SF x $PMMFDUJPO .BOVFMT &E -B DĂŠcouverte. #&-#&0$) 0 : $)"3#*5 0 '"30/ + # ."(&4$"4 BOE $ ."5" j -B QPQVMBUJPO NPOEJBMF x / &% &E -B %PDVNFOUBUJPO 'SBOĂŽBJTF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

#&63*&3 + 1 1 $"3*06 1 (6*--053&"6 BOE : 1&33"6%&"6 Mer, risques et gouvernance JO j - FBV EBOT UPVT TFT Ă?UBUT .Ă?UIPEFT FU QMVSJEJTDJQMJOBSJUĂ? E BOBMZTF̓x in -"(3²& 4 TDJFOUJĂśD FEJUPS $PMMFDUJPO ConfĂŠrences et SĂŠminaires OÂĄ &E "'% ²'&0 #0/*'"$& 1 BOE ) 7&%3*/& j "UMBT EFT DSJTFT FU EFT DPOøJUT x &E "SNBOE Colin-Fayard. #0:&3 : j -F QSPKFU BNĂ?SJDBJO EF EĂ?GFOTF EBOT M FTQBDF x RVBSUFSMZ SFWJFX Politique ĂŠtrangère &E *'3* $065"6 #&("3*& ) j - PDĂ?BO HMPCBMJTĂ? HĂ?PQPMJUJRVF EFT NFST BV 99*e̓ TJĂ’DMF x CJCMJPUIĂ’RVF 4USBUĂ?HJRVF &E Economica. %&'": " j -B HĂ?PQPMJUJRVF x $PMM Que sais-je &E 16' '0--*05 1 BOE 9 -06: France-surMer, un empire oubliĂŠ &E EV 3PDIFS (&03(& 1 j 4VS VOF OPVWFMMF prĂŠsentation du dĂŠterminisme en HĂ?PHSBQIJF IVNBJOF x Annales de gĂŠographie 1BSJT WPM +"$26*/05 " JO UIF SFWJFX Diplomatie MFT HSBOET EPTTJFST OÂĄÍƒ Q February-March. ,"1-"/ 3 RVPUFE JO i5FPSJB B QSBY HFP QPMJUJLZ )FBSUMBOE 3JNMBOE %PNJOPi 6OJWFS[JUZ .BUFKB CFMB 4USFEB -"$045& 3 BOE 1 $"3*06 j -F USBOTQPSU NBSJUJNF x JO Mare economicum Ed. PUR. -"$045& : %JDUJPOOBJSF EF HĂ?PQPMJUJRVF 'MBNNBSJPO 1BSJT -"44&33& ' BOE & (0/0/ Manuel de gĂŠopolitique $PMM 6 &E "SNBOE $PMJO ."$,*/%&3 + ) The Scope and Methods of Geography and the Geographical Pivot of History 5IF 3PZBM (FPHSBQIJDBM 4PDJFUZ -POEPO

."350//& EF & j -B 'SBODF QIZTJRVF̓x (Ă?PHSBQIJF VOJWFSTFMMF 1BSJT .&3$,&-#"() " Et si le littoral allait jusqu’à la mer - La politique du littoral sous la Ve RĂŠpublique &E 2VBF .0¸4* % Crises et guerres au XXe siècle : analogies et diffĂŠrences *'3* &E &DPOPNJDB .0/5#3*"- EF 5 j HĂ?PHSBQIJF QPMJUJRVF x 1BSJT 16' DPMM Que sais-je ? 1"3%0 4 : 1&33"6%&"6 BOE / 3"6563&"6 j "QQPSUT EF MB ĂśOBODF BV TFDUFVS NBSJUJNF x JO Mare economicum &E 163 106*--"6%& " " 4 #0//&5 $ $)"%&/"4 BOE $ $)0#-&5 j MF UPVSJTNF MJUUPSBM̓x JO̓Mare economicum &E 163 30:&3 1 GĂŠopolitique des mers et des ocĂŠans &E 16' 1BSJT 5&353"*4 # Atlas militaire et stratĂŠgique - menaces conflits et forces armĂŠes dans le monde $PMM "UMBT NPOEF &E "VUSFNFOU 7*%"- %& -" #-"$)& 1 Tableau de la GĂŠographie de la France 1BSJT -BWJTTF In the Chapter “Risks and Globalisationâ€?: "#*"% " BOE " .0%: i'JOBODJBM 3FGPSN XIBU TIBLFT JU 8IBU TIBQFT JU i American Economic Review, 7PM QQ "()*0/ 1 BOE 1 )08*55 i" .PEFM PG (SPXUI UISPVHI $SFBUJWF %FTUSVDUJPOi Econometrica 7PM QQ $"4)*/ 1 3 4")": $ 1"55*--0 BOE 1 ̓."630 i.BDSPFDPOPNJD 1PMJDJFT BOE 1PWFSUZ 3FEVDUJPO 4UZMJ[FE 'BDUT BOE BO 0WFSWJFX PG 3FTFBSDIi IMF Working Paper 8BTIJOHUPO % $ $)*// . % BOE * )*30 i" /FX .FBTVSF PG̓ 'JOBODJBM 0QFOOFTTi Journal of Comparative Policy Analysis 7PM QQ ̓

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

%3&)&3 " / ("450/ BOE 1 ."35&/4 i.FBTVSJOH (MPCBMJTBUJPO (BVHJOH JUT $POTFRVFODFTi 4QSJOHFS /FX :PSL -"/& 1 3 BOE ( . .*-&4* '&33&55* i5IF %SJWFST PG 'JOBODJBM (MPCBMJ[BUJPOi American Economic Review 7PM QQ ̓ 1)". 5 ) ) i%PFT UIF 8 50 "DDFTTJPO Matter for the Dynamics of Foreign Direct *OWFTUNFOU BOE 5SBEF 7JFUOBN T /FX &WJEFODFw Economics of Transition 7PM QQ ̓ 3"7"--*0/ . i-PPLJOH #FZPOE Averages in Trade and Poverty Debate“ JO /*44"/,& . BOE & 5)03#&$,& FET 5IF̓*NQBDU PG (MPCBMJ[BUJPO PO UIF 8PSME T 1PPS 1BMHSBWF .D.JMMBO 6/6 8*%&3 Studies in Development Economic and Policy. 4"-" * ."35*/ 9 i5IF 8PSME %JTUSJCVUJPO PG *ODPNF 'BMMJOH 1PWFSUZ BOE $POWFSHFODF 1FSJPEi Quarterly Journal of Economics 7PM QQ 50%"30 . 1 4 $ 4.*5) Economic Development & 1FBSTPO In the Chapter “Financial Regulation, Solvency and Credit Risk�: #"4&- $0..*55&& 0/ #"/,*/( 461&37*4*0/ i#BTFM * *OUFSOBUJPOBM Convergence of Capital Measurement and $BQJUBM 4UBOEBSETw VQEBUFE "QSJM IUUQ XXX CJT PSH QVCM CDCTD IUN #"4&- $0..*55&& 0/ #"/,*/( 461&37*4*0/ i#BTFM ** *OUFSOBUJPOBM Convergence of Capital Measurement and $BQJUBM 4UBOEBSET " 3FWJTFE 'SBNFXPSLw KVJO IUUQ XXX CJT PSH QVCM CDCT QEG

#&3(&3 " 3 )&33*/( BOE ( 4;&(0 i5IF 3PMF PG $BQJUBM JO 'JOBODJBM *OTUJUVUJPOTw Journal of Banking and Finance QQ ̓ $&$$)&55* 4 BOE , 4$)0&/)0-5; i.POFZ #BOLJOH BOE 'JOBODJBM .BSLFUTw rd̓FEJUJPO .D(SBX )JMM %&.*3(6$ ,6/5 " & ,"/& BOE - ̓-"&7&/ Deposit Insurance around the World: Issues of Design and Implementation .*5̓1SFTT %*".0/% % BOE 1 %:#7*( i#BOL 3VOT %FQPTJU *OTVSBODF BOE -JRVJEJUZw +PVSOBM PG 1PMJUJDBM &DPOPNZ QQ (0350/ ( Slapped by the Invisible Hand. The Panic of 2007 0YGPSE 6OJWFSTJUZ Press. -*/%(3&/ $ + ( ("3$*" BOE . 4&"- i#BOL 4PVOEOFTT BOE .BDSPFDPOPNJD 1PMJDZw 8BTIJOHUPO %$ *.' 1&//"$$)* ( i%FQPTJU *OTVSBODFw "&* DPOGFSFODF QBQFS 30$)&5 + $ i8IZ "SF 5IFSF 4P .BOZ #BOLJOH $SJTFT w 1SJODFUPO 6OJWFSTJUZ 1SFTT 30:"- (07&3/.&/5 0' $".#0%*" “Financial Sector Development Strategy w 8*-40/ # i3PDL SFUBJOT /PSUI &BTU TVQQPSUw ##$ /FXT Other References: "()*0/ 1 BOE 1 )08*55 i&OEPHFOPVT (SPXUI 5IFPSZw ." .*5 1SFTT $BNCSJEHF "()*0/ 1 1 )08*55 BOE ( - 7*0-"/5& i(FOFSBM 1VSQPTF 5FDIOPMPHZ BOE 8BHF *OFRVBMJUZw Journal of Economic Growth

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

#&63*&3 + 1 1 $"3*06 1 (6*--053&"6 BOE : 1&33"6%&"6 j̓ .FS SJTRVF FU HPVWFSOBODF̓ x JO -"(3&& 4 TDJFOUJĂśD FEJUPS L’eau dans tous ses ĂŠtats Collection ConfĂŠrences & sĂŠminaire OÂĄÍƒ AFD-EFEO. #3*%*&3 . BOE 4 .*$)"¸-0' Guide pratique d’analyse de projets &DPOPNJDB th Êdition. $-*/( + 1 4 -"(3&& . 3";"'*/%3",050 BOE ' 306#"6% j̓-F 7JFUOBN EBOT l’organisation mondiale du commerce. *NQBDU TVS MB DSPJTTBODF FU M FNQMPJ̓x *SBTFD Occasional Paper OÂĄÍƒ '*(*/* 1 BOE ) (½3( i%PFT 'PSFJHO %JSFDU *OWFTUNFOU "òFDU 8BHF *OFRVBMJUZ "O̓ &NQJSJDBM *OWFTUJHBUJPOw The World Economy )06%":&3 3 Evaluation financière des projets. IngĂŠnierie de projet et dĂŠcision d’investissements &E &DPOPNJDB DPMM 5FDIOJRVFT EF HFTUJPO 1BSJT -&7:/& 0 BOE + . 4")65 Options rĂŠelles %VOPE 1"3, $ 4 Analyse ĂŠconomique en ingĂŠnierie, une approche contemporaine nd̓FE 1FBSTPO

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

List of Trainees Surname and Establishment Domain/Discipline Research theme first name BOUNMANY National University Legal framework of foreign Law Viengvilay of Hà Nội investment in Laos Chu Thị Institute of State Financial organisms Economic law Thanh An and Law in Việt Nam Agence Universitaire KHIENG SoImpact evaluation of oil de la Francophonie Legal science charkriya exploitation in Cambodia (AUF) Hà Nội University of Management of client KOEURN BunEnterprise Social and Human relationships in the thoeurn management Sciences entrepreneurial milieu Cambodian stock KOM Udom Development North-South relations market American economic crisis. Macro-economy, America Research Risks and the management Lê Thị Thu Trang development Institute of commercial bank credit economy risks Institute of Management of financial Nguyễn Hồng Economic and Development and banking risks Thu World Politics economy (South-East Asia) Research Nguyễn Quốc Southern Institute Economy Risks and credit payments Định of Social Sciences Nguyễn Tấn Development Socio-economy Financial risks Khuyên Research Institute Nguyễn Thị University of International finance Fiscal policy Hoàng Oanh Economic Sciences University Nguyễn Thị of Economy Business management Corporate finance Lan Anh and Business Management Nguyễn Trí University of Corporate management, Economy Thông Economy world crisis Institute of Social Nguyễn Tú Law International trade Sciences Training Institute of Post-financial crisis Nguyễn Tuấn Economy and Southeast Asian financial monetary system Anh management Studies in South-East Asia Southern Institute Modelling and Phan Tuấn Anh Economy of Social Sciences corporate crisis Hà Nội École SENGALOUN ASEAN Economic ASEAN Economic Supérieure of Xayaseunh Community Community in 2015 (Laos) Foreign Trade Brussels Université SOK Daline Stock market Stock market Libre

Email vvlbounmany@ hotmail.com anthanhchu11@ gmail.com ks_charkriya@yahoo. com koeurnbunthoeurn@ yahoo.com udomkom@gmail. com lethutranghp@ yahoo.com

thukttg@yahoo.com quocdinhnguyen2011@gmail.com khuyen1964@yahoo. com.vn oanhvang.nguyen@ gmail.com ctminhanh@gmail. com trithong1981@gmail. com nguyentugass@ yahoo.com nguyentuananh_ct@ yahoo.com.vn panjunying1984@ gmail.com Xayaseunh_sal@ hotmail.com daline_univ.lyon2@ yahoo.fr

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Surname and first name

Establishment

TIM Chandararath

Royal University of Law and Economic Sciences

Domain/Discipline Legal sciences

Tô Thị Thùy Trang

Research theme Economic and financial risk prevention and resolution (South-East Asia) Business and State accountancy

Email chandararathtim@ yahoo.com

Development ttttrang.hids@tphcm. Economy Research Institute gov.vn Social sciences tranminhduc_dn@ Trần Minh Đức Law Economic law Training Institute yahoo.com Trương Quang University of truongquangthBanking, finance Risks and financial liquidity Thông Economic Sciences ong@yahoo.com Trương Thị thanhtruong2012@ Hoa Sen University Marketing, Economy Development economics Thanh Thanh gmail.com Hà Nội National Criminal offences in French amonichvann@ VANN Amonich Business criminal law University and Cambodian law gmail.com

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

*NQBDU &WBMVBUJPO Methods and Application with a Thematic Focus on Microfinance Florent BĂŠdĂŠcarrats – $PNJUĂ? E Ă?DIBOHFT EF SĂ?øFYJPO FU d’information sur les systèmes d’Êpargne-crĂŠdit, Axel Demenet – IRD-DIAL, Christophe Jalil Nordman – IRD-DIAL, Laure Pasquier-Doumer – IRD-DIAL, François Roubaud – IRD-DIAL, PhĂšng Ä?ᝊc TĂšng – Research Institute for the Development of the Mekong, Bertrand Savoye – AFD

(Transcript)

about microfinance in connection to the risks of poverty.

Day 1, Morning of 22nd July Introduction of trainers and trainees (cf. trainers’ biographies and list of trainees included at the end of this chapter) [Laure Pasquier-Doumer] 8F BSF ĂśSTU HPJOH UP MPPL BU UIF RVFTUJPO PG impact evaluations by taking into account UIF TQFDJĂśDJUZ PG NJDSPĂśOBODF 5IF PCKFDUJWF of this workshop is to make you familiar with UIF EJòFSFOU TUBHFT PG JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPOT and help you understand the current debate

The theoretical framework of this workshop has been conceived according to the GPMMPXJOH NPEFMT - Today we will deal with the challenges of impact evaluation then with its NFUIPEPMPHJDBM EJóDVMUJFT QBSUJDVMBSMZ counterfactual and control group research. We will conclude with a presentation PG UIF QSJODJQBM RVBOUJUBUJWF NFUIPET o FYQFSJNFOUBM BOE RVBTJ FYQFSJNFOUBM methods; 5VFTEBZ rd 8F XJMM EFWFMPQ UIF RVFTUJPO of the choice of method according to the EJòFSFOU NJDSP FDPOPNFUSJD UPPMT XF IBWF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

JO PSEFS UP FWBMVBUF B QSPKFDU T JNQBDU CVU BMTP BDDPSEJOH UP UIF öFME BOE UIF QSPKFDU T EFNBOET 5IF RVBOUJUBUJWF NFUIPET we will see will be matching methods BOE NFUIPET UIBU FYQMPJU MPOHJUVEJOBM EBUB 5IF DPODFQUVBM JOTUJUVUJPOBM BOE methodological challenges of an impact evaluation will be illustrated at the end of UIF NPSOJOH TFTTJPO VTJOH UIF FYBNQMF PG 1SPHSBNNF GPS UIF SFEVDUJPO PG poverty. We will then all go to the university’s amphitheatre for a video conference with 1BSJT XIJDI XJMM EFBM XJUI UIF TQFDJöDT of the impact evaluation of microfinance programmes; - Wednesday morning will be devoted to the EJóDVMUJFT PG BO JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPO JO UIF EPNBJO PG NJDSPöOBODF BOE UIFO UP UIF USBOTDSJQUJPO PG SFTFBSDI RVFTUJPOT JO UIF form of a survey; - Practical work will be done over the last two days. The workshop will be divided into two EJTUJODU HSPVQT UIF öSTU XJMM XPSL PO 4UBUB TPGUXBSF BQQMJDBUJPO PG QBJSJOH NFUIPET EPVCMF EJòFSFODF JOTUSVNFOUBM WBSJBCMFT outcome analysis and analysis of the three methods proposed – using the reference terms of the two studies (Al Amana and "%Ïö UIF TFDPOE HSPVQ IBT UP JEFOUJGZ the criteria that will guide the conception PG UIF FWBMVBUJPO BOE EFöOF UIF FYQFDUFE impacts of the programme and the causal chain that links the programme’s products BOE UIFJS JNQBDU o EFöOJOH RVFTUJPOT BTLFE DIPJDF PG NFUIPE TVSWFZ BOBMZTJT PG SFTVMUT MJNJUT BOE QFSTQFDUJWFT BOE reflection about the implementation of an impact evaluation protocol. The results of the two groups will be QSFTFOUFE UP UIF XPSLTIPQ BOE XF XJMM UIFO QSFQBSF UPHFUIFS 4BUVSEBZ th +VMZ T feedback.

2.3.1. The Challenges of Impact Evaluation: From Needs Assessment to Cost-benefit Analysis. Which Questions Should be Answered During an Impact Evaluation? 4JODF UIF CFHJOOJOH PG UIF OFX NJMMFOOJVN impact evaluation has been at the heart of QVCMJD QPMJDJFT UIF .JMMFOOJVN %FWFMPQNFOU (PBMT .%(T BOE UIF 1PWFSUZ 3FEVDUJPO Strategy Papers (PRSP) make evaluation – as well as monitoring – an integral component. 5IF OFX QSJODJQMFT GPS BMMPDBUJOH 0óDJBM Development Assistance (ODA) – selectivFOFTT CVEHFUBSZ BJE BQQSPQSJBUJPO FUD ̓ o are conditional on the evaluation (cf. Paris %FDMBSBUJPO 0&$% 8IBU JT NPSF GSPN the research and methodological aspects QPJOU PG WJFX OFX UPPMT IBWF BMTP CFFO developed. Policy assessment is even more crucial in developing countries as resources are scarce BOE OFFET JNNFOTF )PXFWFS JO TQJUF PG BO FWFS JODSFBTJOH EFNBOE JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPOT remain marginal in the practices of EFWFMPQNFOU QSPKFDUT " DVMUVSF PG SJHPSPVT evaluation is still at an embryonic stage. The NBJO DSJUJDJTN PG UIFN JT UIBU UIFZ BSF DPTUMZ DPNQMJDBUFE UBLF B MPOH UJNF UP JNQMFNFOU BOE BSF TPNFUJNFT VOGBJS )PXFWFS - Their cost generally only represents a small part of the global cost and helps avoid wasting resources by financing JOFòFDUJWF QSPKFDUT 5IF UFDIOJDBM EJóDVMUJFT BSF JOEFFE OPU negligible but they may be partly resolved by well anticipated planning and support from political decision-makers; &WBMVBUJPOT BMMPX VT UP JNQSPWF CFUUFS conceive or abandon badly conceived

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

QSPHSBNNFT FYDMVEFE UBSHFU QPQVMBUJPO XBTUFE SFTPVSDFT FUD ,OPXMFEHF BDRVJSFE UISPVHI JNQBDU TUVEJFT TIPVME CF a public good to be used for the conception PG OFX QSPHSBNNFT BOE QSPKFDUT 5XP UZQFT PG BQQSPBDI UP RVBOUJUBUJWF QPMJDZ FWBMVBUJPO TIPVME CF EJTUJOHVJTIFE - “Micro” and ex post o B QPTJUJWF BQQSPBDI impact evaluation based upon micro data BOE FYQFSJNFOUBM BOE RVBTJ FYQFSJNFOUBM methods; they may be applied to targeted programmes such as the introduction of TPDJBM TBGFUZ OFUT JOTFSUJPO QSPHSBNNFT etc. - “Macro” and ex ante o B OPSNBUJWF BQQSPBDI situation models using a counterfactual BOBMZTJT $(& CBTFE PO SFQSFTFOUBUJWF household groups and which may concern DPNNFSDJBM PS öTDBM QPMJDJFT TUSVDUVSBM reforms and macro shocks. -FU VT OPX GPDVT PO UIF öSTU GBNJMZ JO XIJDI impact evaluation is found. *NQBDU FWBMVBUJPO JT POF PG UIF DPNQPOFOUT PG B DPNQMFUF FWBMVBUJPO XIJDI JODMVEFT BU MFBTU UISFF DPNQPOFOUT "O FWBMVBUJPO PG OFFET 8IJDI QPQVMBUJPO JT UBSHFUFE 8IBU JT UIF OBUVSF PG UIF QSPCMFN UIBU OFFET UP CF SFTPMWFE Which framework is the programme part PG 8IBU̓BSF UIF PUIFS OFFET "O FWBMVBUJPO PG UIF QSPDFTT "SF UIF TFSWJDFT EFMJWFSFE %P UIFZ SFBDI UIF UBSHFUFE QPQVMBUJPO "SF UIF DVTUPNFST TBUJTöFE 8IBU UZQF PG JNQMFNFOUBUJPO QSPCMFNT PDDVSSFE - An impact evaluation that determines XIFUIFS UIF QSPHSBNNF IBE UIF FYQFDUFE FòFDUT PO JOEJWJEVBMT IPVTFIPMET PS institutions that benefitted from the

QSPHSBNNF BOE XIFUIFS UIFTF FòFDUT NBZ be attributed to the programme. 8F OFFE UP BMTP BTL RVFTUJPOT BCPVU IPX UIF QSPHSBNNF BòFDUFE CFOFöDJBSJFT whether the programme produced the FYQFDUFE CFOFöUT XIFUIFS UIF PCTFSWFE improvements would have been observed SFHBSEMFTT PG UIF QSPKFDU XIFUIFS SFTPVSDFT XFSF FóDJFOUMZ VTFE FUD Cost benefit analysis results from two DPNQPOFOUT FTUJNBUJPO PG DPTUT JO SFMBUJPO to the benefits of the programme and an alternative use of the committed funds. Illustration Using the Example of the Sky Programme in Cambodia .JDSPöOBODF JODMVEFT NJDSP TBWJOHT NJDSP insurance and microcredit; Sky is a microinsurance programme. *U JT B NJDSP JOTVSBODF IFBMUI QSPHSBNNF MBVODIFE JO CZ (3&5 BOE UIF $BNCPEJBO̓ .JOJTUSZ PG )FBMUI 5IF UBSHFUT were to give rural families greater economic security while favouring their access to TVJUBCMF BOE RVBMJUZ IFBMUI DBSF BOE UIF creation of a local institution that would be able to continue this mission after the EFQBSUVSF PG UIF /(0 8IBU XBT UIF DPOUFYU PG UIF QSPHSBNNF BU UIF EBXO PG UIF OFX NJMMFOOJVN - An absence of social health care but a QPMJDZ PG FYFNQUJPO GPS UIF QPPSFTU JO public health care structures; - An underfinanced public health service XJUI JOTVóDJFOU BOE VOEFSQBJE NFEJDBM TUBò TUSPOH DPNQFUJUJPO GSPN UIF OPO regulated private sector;

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

- Progressive strengthening of the public IFBMUI DBSF PòFS XJUI B DPOUSBDUJOH QPMJDZ PG IFBMUI EJTUSJDUT UP /(0T - The progressive development of a social IFBMUI QSPUFDUJPO QPMJDZ TJODF VTJOH B GSBHNFOUFE BQQSPBDI FRVJUZ GVOE GPS the poorest; voluntary micro-insurance for the informal sector and compulsory social security for the formal sector). 8IBU BSF UIF DIBSBDUFSJTUJDT PG UIF QSPKFDU - Monthly family coverage (membership CPPLMFU XJUI QIPUP GPS 64% QFSTPO ZFBS JO SVSBM BSFBT BOE 64% QFSTPO ZFBS in Phnom Penh; - Monthly payment; 'SFF BDDFTT UP BMM IFBMUI DFOUSF TFSWJDFT district and provincial public hospitals; coverage of transport and funeral costs; - Payment of providers according to a capitation system for health centres and provincial hospitals; - Flat-rate reimbursement for provincial hospitals. -FU VT OPX UIJOL UPHFUIFS BCPVU OFFET assessment and the impact process. *O ZPVS PQJOJPO XIJDI QPQVMBUJPO JT UBSHFUFE LĂŞ Nguyáť…n Duy Oanh 'PS OFFET BTTFTTNFOU XF IBWF UP UBSHFU SVSBM areas; the main need is to improve the health TUBUVT PG JOEJWJEVBMT JO FDPOPNJD EJĂłDVMUZ

BĂši Tháť‹ HĆ°ĆĄng Trầm * XPVME PQU GPS BMM SVSBM IPVTFIPMET Phấm Minh Tiáşżn This programme aims to perfect an insurance system for Cambodia; it also concerns people who work in the insurance sector. [Laure Pasquier-Doumer] 'PS OFFET BTTFTTNFOU XF IBWF UP BTL UIF RVFTUJPO 8IBU QSPHSBNNFT BMSFBEZ FYJTU %PFT UIF QSPHSBNNF BMSFBEZ FYJTU 'PS PVS QVSQPTFT UIF QPPSFTU BSF BMSFBEZ DPWFSFE CZ a health system. The programme does not then target all families but individuals living above the poverty line for whom a problem might plunge them into poverty. The other UBSHFU JT UP DSFBUF B TVTUBJOBCMF JOTUJUVUJPO that is to say one that is financially selfTVĂłDJFOU 5IF UBSHFU QPQVMBUJPO NVTU CFOFĂśU GSPN TVĂłDJFOU NFBOT UP QBZ UIF JOTVSBODF and thus reach the target of a sustainable institution. 5IF PUIFS EJĂłDVMUZ PG UIF JOTVSBODF JT JOWFSTF TFMFDUJPO JU JT OPU POMZ JOEJWJEVBMT XJUI IFBMUI problems who must contract the insurance. The insurance must be of the same interest to the sick or those who know themselves to CF TJDL BT JU JT UP PUIFST JG OPU UIF JOTUJUVUJPO would not survive.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 26 Target Population

Population

+ Rich (15%)

Private Insurances

Middle classes Micro-insurance 50% Almost poor

+ Poor

SKY partnership with equity funds

(35%)

SKY = Social protection services for informal sector workers

Source: GRET.

"OPUIFS EJóDVMUZ PG OFFET BTTFTTNFOU MJFT JO̓BOTXFST UP UIF GPMMPXJOH RVFTUJPOT - What is the nature of the problem that OFFET UP CF SFTPMWFE t )PX DBO XF TBGFHVBSE UIF FDPOPNZ PG SVSBM GBNJMJFT )PX DBO XF QSFWFOU UIF problems that befall families also resulting in economic problems such as income SFEVDUJPO PS EFCU t 8IBU DBO XF EP UP GBWPVS BDDFTT UP HPPE RVBMJUZ BOE XFMM BEBQUFE IFBMUI DBSF t )PX DBO XF EFWFMPQ B TVTUBJOBCMF JOTUJUVUJPO PG IFBMUI JOTVSBODF 8IJDI stakeholders should participate in the QSPHSBNNF )PX DBO XF CFTU EFöOF UIF programme so that it will be profitable and UIBU JOTVSBODF XJMM CF BòPSEBCMF UP UIF UBSHFU QPQVMBUJPO

- Which framework is the programme part PG t *T JU EFöDJFOU 8IJDI GBNJMJFT BSF OPU DPWFSFE CZ IFBMUI JOTVSBODF t %P PUIFS QSPHSBNNFT BMSFBEZ DPWFS UIJT OFFE t 8IBU BSF UIF PUIFS OFFET t 8IBU CFOFöUT XPVME SFTVMU GSPN TBUJTGZJOH UIFTF OFFET "SF IFBMUI QSPCMFNT UIF CJHHFTU TPVSDF PG WVMOFSBCJMJUZ 8IJDI other fundamental needs are not insured JO̓$BNCPEJB t 8IBU CFOFöU NVTU UIF NJDSP JOTVSBODF IBWF UP KVTUJGZ JUT FYJTUFODF SBUIFS UIBO CFJOH B USBOTGFS QSPHSBNNF

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Box

21 What the Needs Assessment Must Provide

The target population must be well defined: - Vulnerable families that run the risk of debt or dilution of capital; - Families able to afford to pay an insurance premium; - Families that do not run a greater risk of illness than others. The programme’s conception must be clear: - What range of services are lacking? - How can they be provided? How many need to be provided? What are the potential obstacles? Having a good idea of the nature of the programme’s benefits: - Has a deficiency been addressed? Has an advantage been extended to others? The alternatives must be known: - Is micro-insurance the most efficient and most profitable way to reduce the vulnerability of rural households and improve health care quality? Source: Author’s construction.

-FU VT OPX NPWF PO UP UIF QSPDFTT FWBMVBUJPO 5IF CBTJD RVFTUJPOT UP CF BTLFE BSF JO UIF CPY CFMPX

Box

22 Process Evaluation

Are the services provided? - What is the quality of the care provided by the health centres? - Is free health care and payment by insurance systematically assured? How is interaction between GRET, the Ministry for Health and the health centres organised? - Is the ministry involved in the programme? Does micro-insurance reach the target population? - Do the most vulnerable contract insurance? - Is the participation rate satisfactory? - Does the insurance only attract the most ill? - Who leaves the programme? - Which factors determine adhesion to the insurance, adverse selection and the potential for sharing risk? Are the families satisfied with their insurance and health care? Is the programme viable? - Are premiums regularly paid? - Are the reimbursements those that are expected? Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

This introduction to needs and process evaluation is necessary in order to fully grasp the specific characteristics of impact evaluation.

when faced with health issues. On the other IBOE ZPV BSF BCTPMVUFMZ SJHIU BCPVU UIF JTTVF PG UIF RVBMJUZ PG UIF JOTUJUVUJPOT UIBU BSF HPJOH to dispense this health care.

/PX XIBU BSF UIF RVFTUJPOT UIBU OFFE UP be asked about the Sky Programme for the JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPO

LĂŞ Tháť‹ Háşąng Giang

NgĂ´ Văn HuẼn What changes can be observed in the IFBMUI DBSF IBCJUT PG UIF JOIBCJUBOUT 8IBU are the results as far as poverty reduction is DPODFSOFE %PFT UIF QSPHSBNNF DPOUSJCVUF UP B GBMM JO IPVTFIPME IFBMUI FYQFOTFT Does the programme also contribute to the improvement of the instructional competences of the health system in $BNCPEJB 'JOBMMZ IBT UIF QSPHSBNNF TVDDFFEFE JO SFEVDJOH JOFRVBMJUJFT JO BDDFTT UP IFBMUI DBSF [Laure Pasquier-Doumer] :PV BTL JG UIF QSPHSBNNF IBT DPOUSJCVUFE to the reduction of poverty and if it has TVDDFFEFE JO SFEVDJOH JOFRVBMJUJFT UP IFBMUI DBSF BDDFTT #VU UIFTF RVFTUJPOT BSF OPU UIF PCKFDUJWF PG UIF QSPHSBNNF 5IF PCKFDUJWF JT UP SFEVDF WVMOFSBCJMJUZ 8F FYQFDU GFXFS people to have to go into debt or sell their BTTFUT UP QBZ GPS IFBMUI DBSF $POTFRVFOUMZ XF FYQFDU GFXFS QFPQMF UP CF WVMOFSBCMF

The programme aims at reducing household WVMOFSBCJMJUZ TP * XPVME BTL UIF GPMMPXJOH RVFTUJPOT )BT UIF OVNCFS PG QFPQMF XIP have fallen into debt or who have had to TFMM UIFJS BTTFUT GBMMFO PS OPU *T UIJT EVF UP the programme or to the improvement in MJWJOH TUBOEBSET PG UIFTF QFPQMF %PFT UIFSF FYJTU BOPUIFS XBZ PG SFEVDJOH UIF OVNCFS PG people who fall into debt or have to sell their BTTFUT [Laure Pasquier-Doumer] *OEFFE ZPV BSF BTLJOH UIF SJHIU RVFTUJPOT "OPUIFS RVFTUJPO UP BTL JT BCPVU UIF FòFDU PG UIF DIBOHF PG UIF JOTVSBODF QSFNJVN UBSJò PO UIF QBSUJDJQBUJPO SBUF BOE DPOTFRVFOUMZ PO UIF QSPHSBNNF T JNQBDU 'JOBMMZ XF BMTP IBWF UP BTL UIF RVFTUJPO BCPVU JNQBDU PG UIF JNQSPWFNFOU JO UIF RVBMJUZ PG TFSWJDFT MJOLFE to this programme. 5ISFF QSJODJQBM RVFTUJPOT DPODFSOJOH JNQBDU NVTU CF SFUBJOFE "CPVU XIJDI NFBTVSFT which population and when should we BOTXFS UIFTF RVFTUJPOT

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Box

23 Impact Evaluation

Key question: Has micro-insurance had an impact on the health and economy of households? Auxiliary questions: - How efficient is micro-insurance in reducing the economic risks linked to illness? - How do households react to a variation in insurance tariffs? - Has the expansion of micro-insurance had an effect on the quality of public health care? Source: Author’s construction.

5P DPODMVEF MFU VT UBLF B MPPL BU UIF TQFDJöDT of micro-finance in impact evaluation. 0WFS UIF MBTU UIJSUZ ZFBST PS TP NJDSP öOBODF BOE NJDSPDSFEJU JO QBSUJDVMBS IBWF been considered tools in policies to fight QPWFSUZ o B IVHF BUUSBDUJPO GPS NJDSPDSFEJUT QBSUJDVMBSMZ̓UIF (SBNFFO #BOL JO #BOHMBEFTI 5IF FNFSHFODF PG NJDSPöOBODF BOE QBSUJDVMBSMZ NJDSPDSFEJU IBT CFFO FYQPOFOUJBM since the beginning of the new millennium – NJMMJPO DMJFOUT JO BOE NPSF UIBO NJMMJPO JO )PX DBO TVDI B QIFOPNFOPO CF FYQMBJOFE 5IFSF BSF UISFF DMFBS BSHVNFOUT JO UIFJS GBWPVS - Opportunity given to the poor to develop their own means of production; - Making the poor less vulnerable and preventing them from falling into the poverty trap; &NQPXFSNFOU PG XPNFO XIJDI leads them to invest in the health and FEVDBUJPO PG UIFJS DIJMESFO XIJDI MJNJUT UIF intergenerational transmission of poverty. 4JODF IPXFWFS UIJT WJTJPO IBT CFFO RVFTUJPOFE PXJOH UP B SJDI EFCBUF BCPVU the impact of microfinance and particularly NJDSPDSFEJU

- Money lenders contribute to the over indebtedness of poor households (cf. rural TVJDJEF JO *OEJB CFDBVTF PG JOEFCUFEOFTT )JHI JOUFSFTU SBUFT BOE OP USBOTQBSFODZ - The clients are not the poor. There is thus today a big debate surrounding UIFTF RVFTUJPOT BOE B OFFE GPS B SJHPSPVT impact evaluation in order to evaluate XIFUIFS NJDSPöOBODF JOTUJUVUJPOT .'*T reach the poor and whether they contribute to reducing the poverty and vulnerability of the population they are there to serve. 5IF .'*T NVTU CF TVQQPSUFE JO UIFJS FWFSZEBZ activities and in their institutional vision. )PXFWFS UIF FYBDU DBUFHPSZ PG QPWFSUZ defined by the donors/researchers rarely coincides with their target populations (those FYDMVEFE GSPN UIF CBOLJOH TZTUFN JO UIF CSPBE TFOTF UIF JOIBCJUBOUT PG JTPMBUFE SVSBM [POFT GBSNFST XPNFO FUD XIBU JT NPSF the long period of impact evaluation does not always correspond to the (short) rhythm PG BO .'* T PQFSBUJPOT This week we will try to understand together UIF JNQMJDBUJPOT PG EJòFSFOU JOUFSFTUT JO BO impact evaluation.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Day 1, Afternoon of Monday 22nd July 2.3.2. The Methodological Difficulties of Impact Evaluation: Looking for a Counterfactual, The Choice of a Sample Group [Christophe Jalil Nordman] *U JT ÜSTU B RVFTUJPO PG LOPXJOH IPX UIF BTTFTTPS JT HPJOH UP MPPL GPS JEFOUJGZ BOE choose a sample group. This morning we saw the necessity of identifying a development QSPKFDU T FòFDU PO BO PVUDPNF UIBU XF TFFL to measure. *O PSEFS UP EFBM XJUI RVFTUJPOT MJOLFE UP JNQBDU JU JT OFDFTTBSZ UP NFBTVSF UIF SFTVMU

Graph

of an intervention by isolating all the other factors that might have an impact. These RVFTUJPOT DBOOPU CF EFBMU XJUI CZ TJNQMZ NFBTVSJOH UIF QSPKFDU T SFTVMUT 8IZ 5IF JNQBDU JT JO SFBMJUZ UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO the result with and without the programme. )PXFWFS JU JT JNQPTTJCMF UP PCTFSWF TPNFPOF JO UXP EJòFSFOU TUBUFT 5IVT XIFO XF PCTFSWF BO JOEJDBUPS BGUFS JOUFSWFOJOH JUT WBMVF JO UIF BCTFODF PG JOUFSWFOUJPO UIBU JT UP TBZ UIF DPVOUFSGBDUVBM JT OPU PCTFSWFE 5IJT TJUVBUJPO EPFT OPU FYJTU JO SFBMJUZ CVU the assessor is going to try and reconstruct it. The search for a counterfactual can be TVNNFE VQ JO POF RVFTUJPO 8IBU XPVME UIF beneficiary of the programme have become JG UIF QSPHSBNNF IBE OPU FYJTUFE

40 We Observe an Outcome Indicator‌

Source: Author’s construction.

8F IBWF IFSF B HSBQI SFQSFTFOUBUJPO XJUI PO UIF PSEJOBUF BYJT B WBMVF UIBU JT UIF SFTVMU PG B programme that we seek to determine Y#. On

UIF Y BYJT XF IBWF NFBTVSFE UJNF t *O t the outcome value is on Y#. When we observe the outcome t UIFSF JT OP QSPHSBNNF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Graph

41 ‌ and its Value Increases After the Programme

Source: Author’s construction.

An intervention occurs between t BOE t B OFX PVUDPNF JT FTUBCMJTIFE JO YP. We observe that the value of the outcome increases between the period before and

Graph

BGUFS UIF QSPHSBNNF *T UIF QSPHSBNNF T PVUDPNF UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO UIFTF UXP WBMVFT

42 Identifying a Counterfactual‌

Source: Author’s construction.

There is a counterfactual that is the situation of individuals who have not benefitted from UIF QSPHSBNNF *U JT QPTTJCMF UIBU UIFTF individuals have an outcome level Y*P that is higher than YP even without the programme’s

JOUFSWFOUJPO 'PS UIFTF JOEJWJEVBMT XIP XFSF OPU SFDJQJFOUT PG UIF QSPHSBNNF JU JT EJóDVMU to be able to target this value. This is what we are going to try to reconstruct in order to measure the programme’s impact.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Graph

43 ‌In Order to be Able to Evaluate the Impact of the Intervention

Source: Author’s construction.

The programme’s impact is finally not the EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO YP and Y# but between YP and Y*P *O PSEFS UP FWBVBUF UIF QSPHSBNNF T JNQBDU XF PCTFSWF UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO

Graph

the outcome after the programme and the outcome that corresponds to the counterfactual that we have looked for.

44 Example of a Back-to-Work Public Policy Job J withÂ

With policy Net impact of windfall effectÂ

J with­ out Without policyÂ

Windfall effectÂ

Change of situation (gross impact)Â

JÂ 0Â

EvaluationÂ

Base yearÂ

Source: Author’s construction.

We have here an employment rate in a DPVOUSZ̓ PO UIF Y BYJT BOE UJNF PO UIF Z BYJT "U UIF NPNFOU PG UIF CBTF ZFBS UIF employment rate is at J then it rises to a level that would correspond eventually to

the outcome of the back-to-work policy. The employment rate situation – the counterfactual – is the employment rate of those not concerned by this back-toXPSL QPMJDZ #FUXFFO UIFTF UXP QFSJPET

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

TPNF VOFNQMPZFE IBWF GPVOE B KPC UPUBMMZ independently of the implemented policy. We have to understand that if we measure the impact of the back-to-work policy using UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO UIFTF UXP WBMVFT J with and J XF EP OPU POMZ NFBTVSF UIF FòFDU PG UIF FNQMPZNFOU QPMJDZ CVU BMTP factors that act concomitant with this policy. The problem that the assessor is confronted with is to identify this counterfactual TJUVBUJPO BT JU XPVME CF OFDFTTBSZ UP IBWF UIF employment rate in the country without the employment policy even though the country has implemented this policy. *O PSEFS UP FOTVSF B SJHPSPVT JEFOUJĂśDBUJPO the impact evaluation must thus estimate UIF DPVOUFSGBDUVBM UIBU JT UP TBZ BOTXFS UIF RVFTUJPO 8IBU XPVME IBWF PDDVSSFE JO UIF BCTFODF PG UIF QSPKFDU 5IJT JT HFOFSBMMZ done through the use of a control group – individuals who do not participate in the programme – who are then compared to the treatment group – individuals who have benefitted from the intervention. The individuals from the control group should EJòFS GSPN JOEJWJEVBMT JO UIF USFBUNFOU group only from the point of view of their participation in the programme. Determining the Counterfactual Lies at the Heart of Impact Evaluation Methods We can classify the methods of construction of the counterfactual according to the GPMMPXJOH DBUFHPSJFT &YQFSJNFOUBM NFUIPET SBOEPN /PO FYQFSJNFOUBM NFUIPET NBUDIJOH EJòFSFODFT JO EJòFSFODFT diff-in-diff selection models and instrumental variables; - Ex ante theoretical models.

0SJHJOBMMZ UIF HFOFSBM TUBUJTUJDBM GSBNFXPSL adapted to the evaluation approach was developed by statisticians in the treatment evaluation domain in the biomedical sector o FQJEFNJPMPHZ JO QBSUJDVMBS 5PEBZ UIF development of these tools goes beyond UIF EPNBJO PG BQQMJDBUJPO UP DMJOJDBM USJBMT *O QBSUJDVMBS UIFTF DPODFQUT BOE NFUIPET IBWF CFFO GSFRVFOUMZ VTFE JO NJDSPFDPOPNFUSZ UP analyse the impact of training programmes BOE TPDJBM BJE OPUBCMZ JO UIF 6OJUFE 4UBUFT The general statistical framework adapted to the evaluation approach is Rubin’s Causal .PEFM 5IJT NPEFM BMMPXT VT UP DMFBSMZ EFĂśOF CPUI UIF DBVTBM FòFDU PG UIF policy we wish to evaluate and the nature of the selection bias. The two important DIBSBDUFSJTUJDT PG UIF DBVTBM FòFDU TVDI BT UIFZ BSF EFĂśOFE JO UIJT GSBNFXPSL BSF JUT unobservable character and its heterogeneity in the population. The unobservability of the DBVTBM FòFDU PCMJHFT UIF BOBMZTU UP GPSNVMBUF hypotheses that allow us to identify certain parameters of the distribution of the causal FòFDU Access to the programme – to the treatment – is represented by a random variable T XIJDI JT WBMVFE BU JG UIF JOEJWJEVBM FOUFST UIF QSPHSBNNF BOE JG IF EPFT OPU 5IF FòFDUJWFOFTT PG UIF QSPHSBNNF JT NFBTVSFE CZ UXP WBSJBCMFT MBUFOU UP UIF PVUDPNF OPUFE Y and Y according to whether the individual receives the treatment (T PS OPU T - These variables correspond to the potential outcomes of the programme; - They are never simultaneously observed for the same individual; 'PS BO JOEJWJEVBM USFBUFE Y is observed whereas Y is unknown;

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

*O UIJT DBTF UIF WBSJBCMF Y corresponds to the outcome that would have occurred if the individual had not been treated (counterfactual); 'PS BO VOUSFBUFE JOEJWJEVBM XF PCTFSWF PO the contrary Y XIFSFBT Y is unknown. The variable of the observed outcome may thus be deduced from the potential variables PG USFBUNFOU CZ UIF SFMBUJPO Y = T Y + (1–T)Y Only the couple (Y, T) is observed for each individual. The causal effect of the treatment is defined GPS FBDI JOEJWJEVBM CZ UIF EFWJBUJPO Δ = Y – Y 5IJT EFWJBUJPO SFQSFTFOUT UIF EJòFSFODF between what the individual’s situation would be if he were treated and what it XPVME CF JG IF XFSF OPU 5IF DBVTBM FòFDU UIVT IBT UXP JNQPSUBOU DIBSBDUFSJTUJDT JU JT VOPCTFSWBCMF TJODF POMZ POF PG UIF UXP potential variables is observed for each individual; it is individual BOE CFDBVTF PG UIJT UIFSF FYJTUT B EJTUSJCVUJPO PG UIF DBVTBM FòFDU in the population. 5IF EJTUSJCVUJPO PG DBVTBM FòFDU JT OPU JEFOUJĂśBCMF /FWFSUIFMFTT UIBOLT UP hypotheses regarding the associated law (Y Y T) XF DBO JEFOUJGZ DFSUBJO QBSBNFUFST PG UIF DBVTBM FòFDU EJTUSJCVUJPO GSPN UIF density of the observable variables (Y, T). 5XP QBSBNFUFST BSF HFOFSBMMZ UIF PCKFDU PG B TQFDJĂśD FYBNJOBUJPO 5IF BWFSBHF FòFDU PG USFBUNFOU JO UIF QPQVMBUJPO

5IF BWFSBHF FòFDU PG USFBUNFOU JO UIF QPQVMBUJPO PG USFBUFE JOEJWJEVBMT ΔATT = E(Y – Y | T

5IFTF UXP QBSBNFUFST BSF POMZ FRVBM VOEFS DFSUBJO WFSZ SFTUSJDUJWF IZQPUIFTFT QBSUJDVMBSMZ if the outcome variables are independent of UIF BDDFTT UP USFBUNFOU WBSJBCMF UIBU JT UP say if (Y Y ) T JU JT QPTTJCMF UP JEFOUJGZ UIF two parameters of interest ΔATE and ΔATT that XFSF̓ EFĂśOFE CFGPSFIBOE *OEFFE JG UIJT TVĂłDJFOU DPOEJUJPO JT TBUJTĂśFE UIFTF UXP QBSBNFUFST PG JOUFSFTU CFDPNF ΔATE = ΔATT = E(Y | T o E(Y | T

*O UIJT DBTF UIF UXP QBSBNFUFST BSF FRVBM BOE NBZ CF FTUJNBUFE TJNQMZ BT UIF EJòFSFODF of the averages of the outcome variables observed in the group of individuals treated and in the group of untreated individuals. The moment the preceding property of JOEFQFOEFODF JT OPU TBUJTÜFE UIF OBUVSBM FTUJNBUPS GPSNFE CZ UIF EJòFSFODF PG UIF BWFSBHFT PG UIF PVUDPNF WBSJBCMFT JT BòFDUFE by a selection bias E(Y | T o E(Y | T = E(Y | T o E(Y ] T

= E(Y | T o E(Y | T E(Y | T o E(Y | T = ΔATT #ATT 5IF TFMFDUJPO CJBT JT UIF UFSN BATT = E(Y | T o E(Y | T

This bias has its origin in the fact that the average situation of individuals having received treatment would not have been the same in the absence of treatment than that of individuals not having received treatment. This is because these two populations are not

ΔATE = E(Y – Y )

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

JEFOUJDBM FYDFQU JO UIF DBTF PG B DPOUSPMMFE FYQFSJNFOU The Choice of a Control Group: Illustrated by a PDUI Programme in Djibouti <-BVSF 1BTRVJFS %PVNFS> * XPVME MJLF UP QSFTFOU ZPV XJUI UIF EJĂłDVMUJFT PG ĂśOEJOH B DPOUSPM HSPVQ XJUI UIF DBTF PG UIF *OUFHSBUFE 6SCBO %FWFMPQNFOU 1SPKFDU 1%6* JO %KJCPVUJ JOGSBTUSVDUVSF SPBET XBUFS ̓ FMFDUSJDJUZ QVCMJD VUJMJUJFT QPMJDF TUBUJPO CVT TUBUJPO USBJOJOH DFOUSFT DPNNVOJUZ EFWFMPQNFOU USBJOJOH QSPGFT

TJPOBM TVQQPSU NBOBHFNFOU TVQQPSU 5IF QSPKFDU XIJDI UPPL QMBDF CFUXFFO BOE DPODFSOFE UISFF DPNNVOBM OFJHICPVSIPPET PG #BMCBMB JO UIF EJTUSJDU PG %KJCPVUJ o JOIBCJUBOUT DPODFSOFE PG UIF QPQVMBUJPO VOFNQMPZFE CVJMEJOHT in corrugated steel in a country where the UFNQFSBUVSF DBO SFBDI ÂĄ $FMTJVT " SBOEPN FWBMVBUJPO XBT OPU QPTTJCMF GPS UIJT QSPKFDU and it was thus necessary to create a control HSPVQ 5IF FYQFDUFE JNQBDUT PG UIF QSPKFDU DPODFSO FNQMPZNFOU IPVTJOH IFBMUI BOE security.

Diagram 27 Impacts at the End of the PDUI Project: Example of Employment  PDUI productsÂ

 PDUI  outcomesÂ

Professional training Better youth employabilityÂ

Short­term PDUI impact Better access to formal jobsÂ

Professional guidanceÂ

Highly labour­intensive work sites give experience  Secondary roadsÂ

Better access to  employment areasÂ

Fall in underemployment and unemployment rateÂ

Rise in activity revenuesÂ

Support to businesses Creation of micro­enterprises Electricity extension Â

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

5IF PCKFDUJWF JT UP FTUBCMJTI B SFGFSFODF TJUVBUJPO CFGPSF UIF QSPKFDU CFHJOT VTJOH B CBTJD IPVTFIPME TVSWFZ 5IF DPOUSPM [POF must be similar at the beginning of the QSPHSBNNF UP UIF 1%6* [POF JO UFSNT PG MJWJOH DPOEJUJPOT BOE BDDFTT BOE NVTU OPU benefit from the programme. " TVSWFZ RVFTUJPOOBJSF JT FTUBCMJTIFE VTJOH IPVTFIPMET o JO UIF 1%6* [POF JO UIF DPOUSPM [POF EJòFSFOU NPEVMFT GPS UIF IFBE PG UIF IPVTFIPME BEVMUT XPNFO CFUXFFO BOE ZFBST PG BHF The sample must allow us to ensure the SFQSFTFOUBUJWFOFTT PG UIF UBSHFU QPQVMBUJPO to monitor a similar control sample and to measure contrasted progress according to UIF EFHSFF PG FYQPTVSF UP UIF QSPHSBNNF 'JSTUMZ UIF DIPJDF JT NBEF CZ HSPVQT PG

UP IPVTFIPMET UIF HSPVQT BSF TUSBUJöFE BDDPSEJOH UP UISFF DSJUFSJB UIF 1%6* DPOUSPM [POF MJWJOH DPOEJUJPOT BOE BDDFTT MFWFMT A census survey is carried out using three population census variables about BDDPNNPEBUJPO XBMM NBUFSJBMT XBUFS TVQQMZ and type of lighting and occupational status. A level housing score is then determined GPS FBDI IPVTFIPME JO %KJCPVUJ 5IF BWFSBHF score by group allows us to classify them BDDPSEJOH UP UISFF TUSBUB PG QSFDBSJPVTOFTT TUBCMF JOUFSNFEJBSZ BOE QSFDBSJPVT Satellite images are used for the access criterion – calculation of the distance CFUXFFO UIF OFJHICPVSIPPE BOE EJòFSFOU UZQFT PG SPBE RVBMJUZ BOE JEFOUJöDBUJPO PG terrain.

Map 14 Identification of the Field and Satellite Mapping to Define the Zone and Access Criteria

Source: PDUI.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Map 15 Stratification According to Access Difficulty

Source: PDUI.

A satellite geo-referencing of the roads and control groups is integrated into the HFPHSBQIJD JOGPSNBUJPO TZTUFN (*4 "DDFTT level is defined by the average distance of the group to roads served by public transport. The groups are classified into three access level strata according to the three distance tercentiles. The system allows us to measure UIF JOUFOTJUZ PG FYQPTVSF UP UIF QSPHSBNNF 5IF EJóDVMUZ JT UIBU DPOUSPM JT POMZ FòFDUJWF PO QBSUJBM DIBSBDUFSJTUJDT PG UIF QSPKFDU TVDI BT BDDFTT BOE IPVTJOH *G GPS FYBNQMF an ethnic group from Ethiopia that speaks fluent English constitutes the comparison HSPVQ JOEJWJEVBMT XJMM ÜOE XPSL NPSF FBTJMZ JO UIF QPSU [POF XIFSFBT UIF NFNCFST PG the control group only speak Arabic. This linguistic distinction thus biases the Y from UIF PVUTFU UIBU JT UP TBZ UIF PVUDPNF UIBU would have resulted if the individuals had not CFFO USFBUFE *O UIJT UIFPSFUJDBM GSBNFXPSL PG UIF TVSWFZ UIF UXP HSPVQT BSF BMJLF CVU UIFSF FYJTU VOPCTFSWFE BOE VONFBTVSFE GBDUPST

EBUB 5IFTF EJòFSFODFT NBZ CJBT SFTVMUT JU JT B EJĂłDVMU QSPCMFN UP SFTPMWF GPS BO JNQBDU evaluation. [PhĂšng Ä?ᝊc TĂšng] (FOFSBMMZ UIF QSPHSBNNFT BSF QSJNBSJMZ aimed at groups that are vulnerable and BU SJTL *O 7JĚ?U /BN QPWFSUZ SFEVDUJPO programmes have been implemented for the distribution of free health insurance to poor IPVTFIPMET BOE UIF SFEVDUJPO PG TDIPPM GFFT in the hope of raising the number of children at school and the length of time they remain UIFSF #VU UIF QSPCMFN MJFT JO JEFOUJGZJOH B control group because living conditions are WFSZ EJòFSFOU 'PS FYBNQMF UIF OVNCFS PG DIJMESFO BU school in the control group is usually higher than that of the treatment group because the GBNJMJFT BSF XFBMUIJFS 'PS FUIOJD NJOPSJUJFT UIF MJOHVJTUJD EJNFOTJPO BOE EJĂłDVMU BDDFTT to villages are important.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

2.3.3. Principal Ex Post Quantitative Methods of Impact Evaluation: Experimental, Quasi-experimental and Non-experimental Methods [Christophe Jalil Nordman] Controlled Experiments "TTFTTNFOU CZ DPOUSPMMFE FYQFSJNFOUBUJPO PS FYQFSJNFOUBM NFUIPE BUUFNQUT UP EP away with selection bias by proposing

Box

to randomly select (by drawing lots) the individuals (or communities) that will benefit from the intervention. This method is generally considered as the most robust method of impact assessment. The principal BEWBOUBHF PG UIJT UFDIOJRVF JT UIF TJNQMJDJUZ PG JOUFSQSFUJOH UIF SFTVMUT UIF QSPHSBNNF T impact on the evaluated outcome is the EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO UIF BWFSBHFT PG UIF samples of the target group and the control group.

24 Example of the Programme in Kenya

Example in Kenya of a programme to deliver school textbooks in 25 rural primary schools in 1996 (Glewwe, Kremer and Moulin, 2004). Evaluation of the supplying of school textbooks, for which the assessors randomly selected the programme’s sites, carried out a basic survey, created control groups and then administered the treatment. The fact of having control groups and target groups thus allowed the assessors to determine clearly the impact of textbooks on the student’s education. Source: Author’s construction.

'SPN BO JNQMFNFOUBUJPO QPJOU PG WJFX the outset principle is the same as that of CJPNFEJDBM FYQFSJNFOUT o BENJOJTUSBUJPO of medicine to certain randomly chosen patients and not to others. The possibility of carrying out the random selection of villages or communities that would benefit from the programme nevertheless constitutes a supplementary QPTTJCJMJUZ BOE JO DFSUBJO DBTFT JT MFTT EJĂłDVMU UP JNQMFNFOU *O UIF DBTF PG MPU ESBXJOH BU BO JOEJWJEVBM MFWFM UIF NPTU VTFE FYQFSJNFOUBM method is that where the eligible group or individuals are first informed about the BJNT BOE QSJODJQMFT PG UIF FYQFSJNFOUBUJPO those who accepted to participate were then

placed in the treatment and control groups by the drawing of lots. To facilitate the statement of properties and limits of this type of controlled FYQFSJNFOUBUJPO MFU VT JOUSPEVDF UXP UZQFT PG EVNNZ WBSJBCMFT – A variable T* UIBU FRVBMT XIFO UIF individual is a candidate to participate in the programme in the framework of the FYQFSJNFOUBUJPO JG OPU – A variable S UIBU FRVBMT XIFO UIF individual is allotted to the treatment group CZ MPU ESBXJOH JG OPU *O PSEFS GPS B DPOUSPMMFE FYQFSJNFOUBUJPO UP FMJNJOBUF TFMFDUJPO CJBT UIF QSPCBCJMJUZ PG

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

application for the considered programme NVTU OPU CF BรฒFDUFE CZ UIF GBDU UIBU BDDFTT to this programme is conditional upon lot ESBXJOH 6OEFS UIJT DPOEJUJPO XF WFSJGZ UIBU UIF FรฒFDU PG T PO UIPTF USFBUFE JT ฮ ATT = E(Y | T* S o E(Y | T* S

*O PUIFS UFSNT UIF BWFSBHF CFOFรถU PG UIF programme for the individuals wishing to participate in it may be estimated by the EJรฒFSFODF CFUXFFO UIF BWFSBHF PVUDPNF of individuals in the treatment group and the average outcome of those in the control group. This second average estimates the average outcome of the counterfactual TJUVBUJPO OPUFE E(Y | T JO UIF OPO FYQFSJNFOUBM DBTF The fact that the decision to participate in UIF FYQFSJNFOU QSFDFEFT UIF ESBXJOH PG MPUT guarantees that the control and treatment groups constitute random subsamples of the participating population. With an FYQFSJNFOUBUJPO QMBO JO XIJDI UIF ESBXJOH of lots precedes the choice of individuals to participate or not in the proposed QSPHSBNNF UIJT DPVOUFSGBDUVBM BWFSBHF DBOOPU IPXFWFS CF JEFOUJรถFE -FU VT JEFOUJGZ TPNF MJNJUT PG UIJT NFUIPE 'JSTUMZ UIF SBOEPN BENJOJTUSBUJPO PG BO intervention may be contrary to legislation. 4FDPOEMZ JU NBZ CF QPMJUJDBMMZ EJรณDVMU to provide an intervention to one group BOE OPU BOPUIFS 5IJSEMZ UIF TDPQF PG UIF programme may signify that there is no DPOUSPM HSPVQ BT TVDI o UIF DBTF PG B QSPKFDU PS B DIBOHF PG QPMJDZ UIBU IBT B MBSHF TDPQF TVDI BT BO BEKVTUNFOU MPBO PS QSPHSBNNFT BENJOJTUFSFE BU B OBUJPOBM MFWFM 'PVSUIMZ certain identification characteristics of individuals within the control groups may

DIBOHF EVSJOH UIF FYQFSJNFOU XIJDI NJHIU JOWBMJEBUF PS BรฒFDU UIF SFTVMUT JG GPS FYBNQMF QFPQMF NPWF JOTJEF PS PVUTJEF UIF QSPKFDU TFDUPS UIFZ NBZ NPWF JOTJEF PS PVUTJEF UIF UBSHFU PS DPOUSPM HSPVQ DPOUBHJPO FรฒFDU alternatively those who have been refused an advantage of the programme may seek JU UISPVHI BMUFSOBUJWF TPVSDFT PS UIPTF GPS whom a programme is meant may choose OPU UP QSPรถU GSPN UIF JOUFSWFOUJPO 'JGUIMZ JU NBZ CF EJรณDVMU UP FOTVSF UIBU UIF TFMFDUJPO JT USVMZ SBOEPN o GPS FYBNQMF BTTFTTPST XIP FYDMVEF IJHI SJTL DBOEJEBUFT UP BDIJFWF CFUUFS PVUDPNFT 'JOBMMZ FYQFSJNFOUBM DPODFQUJPOT may be costly and time consuming in certain TJUVBUJPOT QBSUJDVMBSMZ GPS UIF DPMMFDUJPO PG new data. Quasi-experimentations, Natural Experiments and Regression Discontinuity Design 5IF UFSN RVBTJ FYQFSJNFOUBUJPOT PS OBUVSBM FYQFSJNFOUT JT SFTFSWFE GPS TUVEJFT UIBU FYBNJOF BWFSBHF WBMVFT UBLFO GSPN the outcome variables in two groups of individuals constituted by the random WBSJBUJPO PG BO FYPHFOPVT WBSJBCMF 5IJT FYPHFOPVT WBSJBCMF NPTU PGUFO corresponds to an administrative rule whose modalities may be modified by the legislator GPS FYBNQMF BCPMJUJPO PG NJMJUBSZ TFSWJDF "SBCJTBUJPO PG UFBDIJOH FUD 5IF TPVSDF PG WBSJBUJPO PG UIF FYPHFOPVT WBSJBCMF NVTU CF JEFOUJรถFE BOE USBOTQBSFOU BOE JO QSJODJQMF uncorrelated to other determinants of variations of the outcome variable. 0XJOH UP UIFJS OPO FYQFSJNFOUBM OBUVSF UIF RVBTJ FYQFSJNFOUBUJPOT NVTU USFBU very carefully the problem of defining the control and treatment groups. The treatment group includes individuals or households directly concerned by the modification of

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

UIF FYPHFOPVT WBSJBCMF 5IF NPTU EJóDVMU part is defining the control group on which depend the robustness and precision of UIF FTUJNBUJPO PG UIF FòFDU PG B WBSJBUJPO PG

Box

UIF FYPHFOPVT WBSJBCMF *U JT UIVT B RVFTUJPO of choosing individuals who are most DPNQBSBCMF UP UIPTF BòFDUFE CZ UIF WBSJBUJPO PG UIF FYPHFOPVT WBSJBCMF

25 Advantages and Limits

Advantages

Limits

- No ethical problem - No need for an experimentation plan

- Difficulty in finding a truly exogenous variable - Bias of omitted variables - Omission of time trend

Source: Author’s construction.

Day 2, Morning of Tuesday 23rd Laure Pasquier-Doumer presents the workshop’s group work. The students must think about which of the two groups they wish to join and choose one volunteer in each group for Saturday morning’s feedback. Christophe Jalil Nordman returns to certain points examined on day one in order to assure a good understanding of the workshop. Non-experimental Methods [Axel Demenet] We have demonstrated that to evaluate an JNQBDU JO UIF USVF TFOTF PG UIF XPSE PG B QPMJDZ PO B WBSJBCMF SFWFOVF GPS FYBNQMF JU XBT OPU TVóDJFOU UP NBLF B TJNQMF subtraction of those who benefitted from UIF QPMJDZ GSPN UIPTF XIP XFSF FYDMVEFE GSPN JU #Z DPNQBSJOH UIF IFBMUI PG QBUJFOUT who receive treatment at hospital and UIPTF XIP EPO U o UIF DMBTTJD FYBNQMF o XF might wrongly conclude that the treatment

IBT B OFHBUJWF FòFDU UIPTF XIP HP UP hospital are in bad health and the outcome is biased because the two groups (treated and untreated) are not comparable. We have shown that by applying a random assessment NFUIPE BO iFYQFSJNFOUBMw POF XF DPVME ensure the homogeneity of the two groups BOE PWFSDPNF UIJT CJBT TJODF UIFSF FYJTUFE NFUIPET SFGFSSFE UP BT iRVBTJ FYQFSJNFOUBMw that reproduced the conditions of random BTTFTTNFOU *O UIF NBKPSJUZ PG DBTFT IPXFWFS it is impossible to implement such methods PS̓FYQMPJU OBUVSBM FYQFSJNFOUT 8F BSF HPJOH to develop here certain methods that will allow us to reduce bias; these methods are grouped together under the term “nonFYQFSJNFOUBMw 5IFZ FYQMPJU UIF NFBTVSFT of our variable of interest Y SFWFOVF IFBMUI TUBUVT FUD GPS UIF QPQVMBUJPOT PG USFBUFE (T BOE VOUSFBUFE JOEJWJEVBMT T Overcome Selection Bias by Reconstructing a Counterfactual We know that the “naiveâ€? impact evaluation UIBU DPOTJTUT JO TVCUSBDUJOH UIF FYQFDUBUJPO

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Y for treated individuals E(Y | T BOE GPS untreated ones E(Y | T UP VTF BHBJO UIF FYBNQMF UIF BWFSBHF IFBMUI TUBUVT GPS UIPTF who go to the hospital and those who EPO U JT CJBTFE CZ UIF JOJUJBM EJòFSFODFT between individuals who participate and UIPTF XIP EPO U 5IFTF EJòFSFODFT NBZ CF CPUI PCTFSWBCMF HFOEFS SFWFOVF CFJOH JMM FUD BOE VOPCTFSWBCMF NPUJWBUJPO UBMFOU They generate a selection bias (BATT) the NPNFOU UIF JOEFQFOEFODF SFRVJSFNFOU between the latent values of outcome (Y ̓Y ) and participation in the treatment is not SFTQFDUFE [(Y Y ) T] E(Y | T Ĺ˝ E(Y | T that is to say at all moments except when a random evaluation protocol is implemented. Matching Methods Several methods allow us to eliminate or reduce this bias. They consist in ensuring that the two populations (treated and untreated) are close by using control variables that BòFDU UIF QSPCBCJMJUZ PG QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO the treatment and/or the outcome. The starting hypothesis referred to as “conditional JOEFQFOEFODFw XIJDI JT TJHOJĂśDBOUMZ MFTT TUSPOH UIBO UIF QSFDFEJOH IZQPUIFTJT JT UIBU UIFSF FYJTUT B HSPVQ PG WBSJBCMFT GPS XIJDI the latent outcomes and the assignment to USFBUNFOU BSF JOEFQFOEFOU DPOEJUJPOBMMZ UP UIF DPOUSPM WBSJBCMFT [(Y Y ) T] | X Conditional independence implies that the treated and untreated populations are balanced in relation to the observable characteristics that influence the outcome WBSJBCMF JO PUIFS UFSNT UIBU GPS QFPQMF IBWJOH FYBDUMZ UIF TBNF DIBSBDUFSJTUJDT UIF GBDU UIBU

some are treated and others are not treated is only linked to chance. 8F DBO UIFO JEFOUJGZ UIF FYQFDUBUJPO PG the outcome Y for the two populations and UIVT UIF BWFSBHF FòFDU PG UIF USFBUNFOU (ΔATE BT XFMM BT UIF BWFSBHF FòFDU PG UIF treatment for the group of people treated (ΔATT). The condition of identification of UIF MBUUFS QBSBNFUFS JT MFTT TUSPOH TJODF JU only necessitates independence between the potential outcome in the absence of USFBUNFOU BOE USFBUNFOU PS Y T | X. The principle of the estimation is to use the information we have about the untreated individuals to construct a counterfactual for each treated individual. The final estimator is obtained as the average of the deviations between the situation of treated individuals BOE UIF DPOTUSVDUFE DPVOUFSGBDUVBM

where I is the sub-sample of treated individuals and N is the number of treated individuals. The “matchingâ€? allows us to partly correct the selection problem by using the observable variables X to select individuals from the control group who are close to those USFBUFE *O PUIFS UFSNT XF NBUDI USFBUFE individuals with one or several individuals in the untreated group who are comparable to them according to the Xs *O PSEFS UP FWBMVBUF UIF FòFDU PG USFBUNFOU BU IPTQJUBM XF XJMM OP longer compare with the non-hospitalised QPQVMBUJPO JO HFOFSBM CVU SBUIFS XJUI JOEJWJEVBMT TVòFSJOH GSPN UIF TBNF JMMOFTT and not having been treated in the hospital. This method implies that we observe for each treated individual one or several comparable

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

iUXJOw JOEJWJEVBMT XJUIJO UIF NFBOJOH PG UIF characteristic X UIBU JT UP TBZ TVDI BT XÄŠ(i) = Xi.

NFBTVSF PG EJTUBODF *U JT CBTFE VQPO UIF QSPQFSUZ

"O FòFDU JT UIFO DBMDVMBUFE CZ TVC HSPVQ CZ DBMDVMBUJOH UIF EJòFSFODF JO UIF QFSGPSNBODF averages between treated and untreated JOEJWJEVBMT BOE BO BWFSBHF PG UIF FòFDUT CZ sub-group gives an estimation of the ∆ATT QBSBNFUFS 5IF RVBOUJUZ YÄŠ(i) is an estimator of UIF FYQFDUBODZ PG UIF QPUFOUJBM PVUDPNF Y0i

Y T | X => Y T | P(X)

5IF FTUJNBUPS PG UIF BWFSBHF FòFDU PG USFBUNFOU PO UIF USFBUFE JT UIFO FRVBM UP

*U TIPVME CF OPUFE UIBU UIF WBMJEJUZ PG UIF method is first based upon the available DPOUSPM WBSJBCMFT BOE UIVT PO UIF RVBMJUZ PG EBUB BT XFMM BT UIF TJ[F PG UIF TBNQMF HSPVQ 8IBU JT NPSF JU POMZ BMMPXT VT UP QBSUJBMMZ SFTPMWF UIF TFMFDUJPO QSPCMFN BT JU JT impossible to take into account unobservable EJòFSFODFT Matching the individuals on the basis of a MBSHF OVNCFS PG DPOUSPM WBSJBCMFT RVJDLMZ SBJTFT B QSPCMFN PG EJNFOTJPO JU JT JNQPTTJCMF to find perfect twins for each aspect. 3PTFOCBVN BOE 3VCJO TIPXFE UIBU VOEFS UIF DPOEJUJPOBM JOEFQFOEFODF IZQPUIFTJT NBUDIJOH JT BDIJFWBCMF via the conditional probability of participation in the programme or “propensity scoreâ€?. The score P(X) = Pr (T ]̓ X) represents the probability of participating in the treatment knowing the Xs XIJDI BSF FTUJNBUFE JO practice using a dichotomic probit or logit model. The vector P(X) summarises all the information observed in the vector X and allows us to match the individuals on a single OVNFSJDBM JOEFY BDDPSEJOH UP B EFĂśOFE

If the variable of the outcome :0 is independent of access to treatment T conditionally to the X observables, then it is also independent of T conditionally to the propensity score We should note that matching produces a local estimator. As we can only match individuals who have nearly the same score WBMVFT UIF BTTFTTNFOU XJMM CF MJNJUFE UP the sub-sample of individuals that find UIFNTFMWFT PO UIF iDPNNPO TVQQPSUw UIBU JT UP TBZ UIF [POF PG DPNQBSBCMF TDPSFT UIPTF who have too low or too high P(X) values XJMM CF FYDMVEFE BT UIFZ BSF OPU DPNQBSBCMF enough. A certain amount of freedom is allowed in practice in the matching of individuals’ scores. They may be compared one by one – or associated to the nearest neighbour k (classifier); unit i will be paired with unit j so UIBU

We may or may not permit the fact that several treated units have the same untreated VOJU *U JT BMTP QPTTJCMF UP EFÜOF BO VQQFS limit δ GPS EJTUBODF iDBMJQFS NBUDIJOHw JG OP untreated unit is situated at less than δ from unit i UIFO UIF VOJU XJMM OPU CF NBUDIFE

An alternative method consists in matching not individuals but a kernel (kernel matching). We then associate to the outcome yi of the treated unit i an average of the results of all the untreated units weighted by a kernel GVODUJPO XIFSF UIF XFJHIU BTTPDJBUFE UP

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

the outcome of each untreated unit j is QSPQPSUJPOBM UP UIF QSPYJNJUZ CFUXFFO i and j

Box

We must then define as best we can the LFSOFM GVODUJPO VTFE PG UIF (BVTTJFO PS Epanechnikov type) as well as the width of window h iCBOEXJEUIw UIF XJEFS h JT UIF more tolerant we are in matching terms.

26 How Does Matching Compare to Other Impact Evaluation Techniques?

In comparison with the results obtained using a randomised experiment on a training programme in the United States, some authors show that matching gives a good approximation of outcomes (Heckman et al., 1997; Deejay and Wahba, 1999). Other authors show that this technique falls short of the experimental evaluations for the same programme (Lalonde, 1986). Apart from the fact that it is very much based on the quality of the control variables used, it is still the case that matching methods cannot take into account the selection of participants determined by unobservable characteristics. The different types of matching only marginally differ in practice, but the highest performing estimator consists in combining matching and the double differences method exposed below (Smith and Todd, 2005). Source: Author’s construction.

Methods That Use Longitudinal Data -POHJUVEJOBM EBUB BMMPX VT UP IBWF B SBOHF PG PCTFSWBUJPOT BU B QFSJPE É‹ BU XIJDI UIF JOUFSWFOUJPO IBT OPU ZFU UBLFO QMBDF UIBU JT UP TBZ Y É‹ = Y É‹

Table

33 “Before-After“ and “Double Differences Method“

Sources: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[Christophe Jalil Nordman] -FU VT UBLF BOPUIFS MPPL BU UIF EFWFMPQNFOU QSPKFDU GPS DIJMESFO T MFBSOJOH DBQBDJUJFT JO ,FOZB o UIF SBOEPN EJTUSJCVUJPO PG TDIPPM

Graph

UFYUCPPLT 5IF USFBUNFOU HSPVQ JT UIF TDIPPM XIFSF UFYUCPPLT BSF EJTUSJCVUFE UIF DPOUSPM HSPVQ JT TDIPPMT XIFSF UFYUCPPLT IBWF OPU CFFO EJTUSJCVUFE -FU VT VTF UIF EPVCMF EJòFSFODFT NFUIPE

45 Has the Programme Changed Things? Educational SuccessÂ

3Â

(Observed)Â

3 ­ 2 = 1 = impact?Â

2Â

(Observed) Time t = 1Â

t = 0 PROGRAMME Sources: Author’s construction.

#FGPSF UIF QSPHSBNNF T UIF PVUDPNF PO UIF Z BYJT JT GPS DIJMESFO JO B UFTU *O T BO JNQSPWFNFOU JO QFSGPSNBODF JT OPUFE #VU UIF JNQBDU PG UIF QSPHSBNNF DBOOPU CF SFEVDFE UP TFF (SBQI

5IF QSPHSBNNF T JNQBDU JT UIF EJòFSFODF CFUXFFO BOE UIF WBMVF X that is the outcome you would probably have had in T JO UIF BCTFODF PG UIF QSPHSBNNF 8F EP OFU ZFU IBWF UIF OPUJPO PG EPVCMF EJòFSFODFT but that of the counterfactual.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Graph

46 What Would Have Happened in the Absence of the Programme?

Educational SuccessÂ

3Â

(Observed) Impact: 3 – XÂ

XÂ

(Non­Observable)Â

2Â

time t = 1Â

t = 0 Sources: Author’s construction.

Graph

47 Reconstructing X with the Help of a Control Group

Treatment Group 3 Impact: 3 â€“ 2.4Â

2.4Â

Control GroupÂ

2Â

Time t = 0Â

t = 1Â

Sources: Author’s construction.

We reconstruct X with the help of a control HSPVQ 5IF QSPHSBNNF T JNQBDU JT FRVBM UP 5IF EPVCMF EJòFSFODFT FTUJNBUPS assumes that the outcome of the pupils from

the control group and that of the group of pupils treated would be influenced by the same learning capacities over time.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Graph

48 Double Differences Estimator

Educational SuccessÂ

Treatment Group 3 Impact Control Group X 2Â

Time t = 1Â

t = 0 Sources: Author’s construction.

*U JT BTTVNFE UIBU UIF USBKFDUPSZ PG UIF UXP groups is parallel in time with or without the QSPHSBNNF UIF JOEJWJEVBMT XJMM UIVT QSPHSFTT JO UIF TBNF XBZ UIF UFNQPSBM EJòFSFODF JO PVUDPNF JT VOJRVFMZ BUUSJCVUBCMF UP UIF programme.

Table

-FU VT TVNNBSJTF UIF JNQMFNFOUBUJPO PG UIF EPVCMF EJòFSFODFT NFUIPE $PMMFDU UIF JOJUJBM EBUB GPS FBDI HSPVQ CFGPSF the introduction of the programme; $PMMFDU UIF NPOJUPSJOH EBUB GPS FBDI HSPVQ after the programme has taken place; $BMDVMBUF UIF CFGPSF BGUFS EJòFSFODF GPS each group; 4VCUSBDU UIF EJòFSFODF PCTFSWFE JO UIF control group from that observed in the group treated.

34 Outcomes of the Programme Group

Before

After

Difference Before-After

1.

Treatment

2.0

3.0

1.0Â

2.

Control

2.2

2.3

0.1Â

3.

Impact

1.0 ­ 0.1 = 0.9Â

Sources: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

2.3.4. The Choice of Method: Between the Golden Rule and the Constraints of the Field. Inputs of the Quasi-experimental, Experimental and Qualitative Methods [Laure Pasquier-Doumer] "NPOH UIF EJòFSFOU NFUIPET UIF QSPCMFN of selection bias is a priori better resolved VTJOH UIF FYQFSJNFOUBM NFUIPE *O SFBMJUZ EVSJOH BO FWBMVBUJPO NFUIPEPMPHJDBM DSJUFSJB and fields constraints are needed.

Table

The idea of this presentation is that it is necessary to integrate the methodological DSJUFSJB JOUP UIF DIPJDF PG NFUIPE CVU BMTP the field constraints. 'PS FYBNQMF B UFMFQIPOF DBNQBJHO UIBU XBT conducted in the United States to increase FMFDUPSBM QBSUJDJQBUJPO SBOEPNMZ chosen people were contacted to incite UIFN UP WPUF %VQBT

35 Up To What Extent Can We Go Wrong Using Non-experimental Methods? MethodsÂ

Estimated impactÂ

Among the 60,000 selected : simple difference between those having received the call and those not having received itÂ

10.8ppÂ

Among the 60,000 selected : double difference between the  35,000 having received the call and the 25,000 not having received it

4.5ppÂ

By the matching method, creation of a 35,000 strong control group, and comparison between the 35,000 â€œtreatedâ€?  and the control group

2.8ppÂ

Difference between the 60,000 selected and the 2,000,000 non­selected (random experience)Â

0.2ppÂ

PP: percentage points. Sources: Dupas (2008).

What was the rise in electoral turnout when voters were called in relation to those not DBMMFE The first two methods do not provide a good answer because those who answered the calls do not necessarily have the same unobservable characteristics BT UIPTF XIP EJE OPU *G XF VTF UIF QBJSJOH̓ NFUIPE UIF FTUJNBUFE JNQBDU JT FWFO̓ XFBLFS ̓ QFSDFOUBHF QPJOUT 8JUI

UIF SBOEPN NFUIPE UIF QSPHSBNNF IBT [FSP JNQBDU The evaluation is sensitive to the choice of NFUIPE BOE UIFPSZ UFMMT VT UIBU UIF SBOEPN PQUJPO JT UIF CFTU NFUIPE )PXFWFS DFSUBJO programmes are not adapted to this type of method. -FU VT FYBNJOF UXP SBOEPN FWBMVBUJPOT that were carried out for AFD microfinance programmes. We are going to see what made

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

the evaluations complicated and sometimes EJTBQQPJOUJOH "M "NBOB UIF QSJODJQBM NJDSPDSFEJU JOTUJUVUJPO JO .PSPDDP /BVEFU et al 4LZ B IFBMUI NJDSP JOTVSBODF programme in Cambodia. 5IF "M "NBOB QSPHSBNNF UP POMZ PòFSFE NJDSPDSFEJU JO VSCBO BSFBT 'SPN

Graph

UIF QSPHSBNNF XBT FYUFOEFE UP SVSBM BSFBT UIVT QSPWJEJOH B VOJRVF PQQPSUVOJUZ UP assess the impact of microcredit on poverty o WJMMBHFT XFSF USFBUFE XFSF iDPOUSPMw WJMMBHFT BOE IPVTFIPMET XFSF TVSWFZFE CFGPSF UIF QSPHSBNNF BOE POF BOE UXP years after.

49 Al Amana: A Lower Participation Rate (Take-up) Than Expected (1)Â

(3)Â (2)Â

(4)Â

Wave 1Â

Wave 2Â

Wave 3Â

Wave 4Â

Sources: Bernard (2010).

*O UIF ĂśSTU WJMMBHFT XIFSF UIF QSPHSBNNF XBT QSPQPTFE MFTT UIBO PG JOEJWJEVBMT BHSFFE to participate in the microcredit programme. *O UIF MPOH SVO UIF SBUF SFNBJOFE WFSZ MPX JO relation to what had been observed in urban BSFBT o PG JOEJWJEVBMT *O ZPVS PQJOJPO XIZ EPFT UIJT MPX QFSDFOUBHF of participation in the programme pose a QSPCMFN GPS UIF JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPO

LĂŞ Tháť‹ Háşąng Giang Too low a rate participation does not allow us to measure the impact. [Laure Pasquier-Doumer] *OEFFE UIF TNBMMFS UIF TBNQMF HSPVQ UIF MFTT reliable the figures obtained. Nguyáť…n Tháť‹ Yáşżn *T UIFSF B DBMDVMBUJPO UP EFĂśOF UIF TJ[F PG UIF TBNQMF HSPVQ UIBU XJMM CF TVĂłDJFOU GPS UIF NBSHJO PG FSSPS UP CF BDDFQUBCMF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

[PhĂšng Ä?ᝊc TĂšng]

Nguyáť…n KhĂĄnh Duy

We can base our measures on a previously DPOTUSVDUFE EBUBCBTF UP NBLF FTUJNBUJPOT and that depends on the evaluation demand.

)PX EP XF LOPX XIFUIFS UIF FòFDU XJMM CF XFBL PS OPU

[Laure Pasquier-Doumer] 5IF TJ[F PG UIF TBNQMF HSPVQ EFUFSNJOFT UIF FòFDU PG UIF QSPHSBNNF UIBU XF DBO NFBTVSF XJUI DFSUBJOUZ UIF MBSHFS UIF TJ[F PG UIF TBNQMF HSPVQ UIF FBTJFS JU JT UP NFBTVSF UIF FòFDU *G UIF DPOÜEFODF JOUFSWBM JT UIJT JNQMJFT UIBU UIF WBMVF XJMM CF FYBDU JO PG DBTFT CVU UIBU JO PG DBTFT UIF WBMVF XJMM CF GBMTF *G XF IBWF B QSPHSBNNF XIPTF FòFDU XF LOPX XJMM CF XFBL XF XJMM OFFE B big sample group in order to measure it. With B TBNQMF HSPVQ PG QFPQMF XF BSF TVSF UP TFF BO JODSFBTF FòFDU PG PO IPVTFIPME consumption.

Table

[Laure Pasquier-Doumer] 8F MPPL BU QSFWJPVT FYQFSJFODF )FSF XF XBOU to know whether or not microcredit is going UP JODSFBTF DPOTVNQUJPO *O VSCBO BSFBT JU JODSFBTFE DPOTVNQUJPO CZ UP 8F DBO IPQF UIBU JO SVSBM [POFT UIF QSPHSBNNF XJMM NBLF DPOTVNQUJPO SJTF CZ #FDBVTF PG UIF MPX SBUF PG QBSUJDJQBUJPO NFBTVSFT XFSF UBLFO BCPMJUJPO PG UIF RVPUB GPS XPNFO SFQBZNFOU TDIFEVMF FYQBOEFE BXBSFOFTT DBNQBJHO BOE JODSFBTF JO TJ[F PG sample group.

36 Participation Rate, Sample Group Size and Minimum Detectable Effect Take­up Rate in PopulationÂ

Take­up Rate in SampleÂ

Minimum Detectable Effect on Consumption LevelÂ

With initial sample (~5,000) and prediction model based on Wave 1 outcomesÂ

~17%Â

~32%Â

26%Â

With final sample (+9 in each village) and new selection modelÂ

~17%Â

~32%Â

20%Â

Sources: Bernard (2010).

These measures resulted in an increase in QBSUJDJQBUJPO o GSPN UP B SBUF PG XBT OFDFTTBSZ GPS UIF FòFDU UP CF KVEHFE QPTJUJWF )PXFWFS XF GPVOE OP JNQBDU PG UIF QSPHSBNNF PO QPWFSUZ DPOTVNQUJPO PS UIF diversification of activities.

The Sky Programme that has already been presented is a microcredit programme that XBT JOJUJBUFE CZ (3&5 BOE XIJDI BJNFE BU reducing the vulnerability of rural villages in $BNCPEJB 5IF QSPDFTT XBT MPOH and the budget big – a million dollars for the impact assessment.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

The programme distributed coupons in rural villages that gave inhabitants the right to lower insurance premiums – random distribution (drawing of lots) of coupons that gave the right to a reduction in insurance QSFNJVNT GPS UIF QVSDIBTF PG TJY NPOUI JOTVSBODF POF UP TJY NPOUIT GSFF 5IF EJĂłDVMUJFT XFSF BU EJòFSFOU MFWFMT 7FSZ IJHI ESPQPVU SBUF BGUFS TJY NPOUI SFEVDUJPO QFSJPE IFODF BO FYUFOTJPO PG reduction period); 5PP JOGSFRVFOU IFBMUI TIPDLT UP TFF UIF programme’s impact on indebtedness after a health shock; 5PP MJUUMF JOGPSNBUJPO PO IFBMUI FYQFOTFT UP analyse changes in behaviour. An impact on living conditions was JEFOUJĂśFE o RVFTUJPOT PG EFCU SFEVDUJPO BOE JOEFCUFEOFTT GPS FYBNQMF o CVU POMZ UIF poorest enrolled in the programme (adverse TFMFDUJPO XIJDI XFOU BHBJOTU UIF PCKFDUJWF of establishing a sustainable institution of the programme. What conclusions can we make from these UXP JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPOT

5IFSF UIVT FYJTUT B iSBOEPNJTBUJPO CJBTw Of what EP XF NFBTVSF UIF JNQBDU - Evaluation of programmes carried out in DPOEJUJPOT UIBU BSF EJòFSFOU GSPN XIBU XBT foreseen on a big scale. "M "NBOB BEBQUBUJPO EVSJOH UIF QSPHSBNNF JO SVSBM [POFT RVPUBT GPS XPNFO SFQBZNFOU TDIFEVMF UIBU UBLFT UIF BHSJDVMUVSBM DBMFOEBS JOUP BDDPVOU JOEJWJEVBM DPMMFDUJWF MPBOT JODFOUJWFT 4LZ TBNF QSPHSBNNF BMSFBEZ UFTUFE CVU the coupons change the programme. 8F DBO PCTFSWF B EJòFSFOU JOUFOTJUZ of participation in the programme FOEPHFOPVT B MFBSOJOH QSPDFTT PG UIF participants. On what EP XF NFBTVSF UIF JNQBDU Microfinance may have an impact on living TUBOEBSET UISPVHI B MPOH UFSN QSPDFTT "M "MBNB TNBMM TVN NJDSPDSFEJUT UIBU MFBE UP B NVMUJQMJDBUJPO PG DSFEJUT B MFBSOJOH process about the use of credits as a strategy for poverty reduction.

On whom TIPVME XF NFBTVSF UIF JNQBDU

5IF FWFOUT PO XIJDI XF FYQFDU BO JNQBDU BSF̓UPP SBSF UP NFBTVSF TJHOJĂśDBOU WBSJBUJPOT

The “treated� are not representative of the QPQVMBUJPO

4LZ TFWFSF IFBMUI TIPDLT BSF SBSF

"M "NBOB POMZ UIPTF XIP IBWF UIF highest probability of participating in the programme (too low a participation rate); 4LZ UIPTF XIP QBSUJDJQBUF JO UIF programme with a reduction coupon are not the same as those who participate without a coupon.

&WBMVBUJPO UJNF EJòFST GSPN QSPHSBNNF UJNF MJNJUJOH DPOUBNJOBUJPO FòFDUT The first condition to be fulfilled to use the random method is that the treatment must be randomly assigned – the case for a microDSFEJU PS NJDSP JOTVSBODF QSPHSBNNF CVU OPU GPS JOGSBTUSVDUVSF QSPKFDUT /FYU UIF QBSUJDJQBUJPO SBUF NVTU CF IJHI BOE TUBCMF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

the programme must be well defined from the beginning and it must not change as it QSPHSFTTFT 'JOBMMZ UIF FYQFDUFE FòFDUT PG UIF programme must happen in the short term. Laure Pasquier-Doumer synthetically addresses the inputs of the qualitative approach. We refer the reader to the JTD of the summer of 2010 that concerned the analysis of the complementarity between quantitative and qualitative approaches (Cling et al., 2011).

Two presentations were made during the afternoon in the amphitheatre of Da Lat University: one dealt with the conceptual, institutional and methodological challenges of Programme 135 for the reduction of poverty (PhĂšng Ä?ᝊc TĂšng), the other with microfinance impact evaluation: How, for whom and why? (Videoconference with Florent BĂŠdĂŠcarrats) The topic dealt with during the first presentation was the subject of several publications within the JTD framework, notably in the 2010 edition when the general subject dealt with poverty reduction (LagrĂŠe et al., 2010); for the second, we refer the reader to a very complete and recent article that was written by the lecturer (BĂŠdĂŠcarrats, Lapenu, 2013).

Day 3, Wednesday 24th Wednesday morning begins with a return to the presentation of the principal FY QPTU quantitative methods of impact evaluation. The Instrumental Variables Technique [Christophe Jalil Nordman] 5IFSF FYJTU UXP QSJODJQBM NFUIPET JO academic studies. One uses the statistical QBJSJOH UFDIOJRVFT UIBU XF IBWF BMSFBEZ QSFTFOUFE UIF PUIFS DBMMT GPS B GBNJMZ PG instrumental variable methods. The problem of the former is that although they allow VT UP DPOUSPM UIF FòFDUT PG UIF PCTFSWBCMF JOEJWJEVBM DIBSBDUFSJTUJDT UIFZ EP OPU BMMPX VT UP DPOUSPM UIF CJBT MJOLFE UP UIF FYJTUFODF PG VOPCTFSWBCMFT UIBU QPUFOUJBMMZ BòFDU CPUI the probability of the treatment and the outcome variable. The idea of this second GBNJMZ PG NFUIPET XIJDI JODMVEFT TP DBMMFE selection models that concern unobservables and instrumental variables estimations per se JT UP VTF UIF WBSJBCMFT UIBU BòFDU UIF TFMFDUJPO JO UIF TZTUFN CVU EP OPU EJSFDUMZ BòFDU UIF variables of interest Y et Y . The selection model of the unobservables may be estimated with the help of the JOTUSVNFOUBM WBSJBCMFT UFDIOJRVF 5IJT UZQF of estimation is generally preferred to the NBYJNVN MJLFMJIPPE NFUIPE BT JU JT CBTFE upon less strict (semi-parametric) identifying assumptions. The instrumental variable UFDIOJRVF JT B WFSZ HFOFSBMMZ VTFE NFUIPE in econometrics and is not only applied to impact evaluation methods.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

5IF JEFB JT UIBU UIFSF FYJTU POF PS TFWFSBM Z WBSJBCMF T UIBU XPVME BòFDU UIF USFBUNFOU T but not directly the outcome Y.

Box

27 Basic Hypothesis for a Homogenous Treatment Effect

(1) This signifies that, knowing that X, Z does not have a direct effect on Y. It is a non-testable exclusion restriction. (2) There exist at least two values for Z such as:

This signifies that Z clearly influences the treatment probability. The hypothesis is testable. Source: Author’s construction.

Several works have used the instrumental WBSJBCMFT UFDIOJRVF UP NFBTVSF UIF FòFDU of education on individuals’ salaries. When JOEJWJEVBMT TQFOE UJNF BU TDIPPM UIFZ SFDFJWF JOGPSNBUJPO B USFBUNFOU UIBU TIPVME CF DBVTBMMZ SFøFDUFE PO BO PVUDPNF PO the labour market – salary. The problem with the education-salary relation is that it JT NBSSFE CZ B CJBT PG UIF VOPCTFSWBCMFT BT UIFSF FYJTU NBOZ VOPCTFSWBCMFT o TPDJBM BOE FOWJSPONFOUBM GBDUPST o UIBU BòFDU UIF MFOHUI of time individuals spend at school. The JOTUSVNFOUBM WBSJBCMF UFDIOJRVF BMMPXT VT UP correct this bias. 8F DBO DPOUSPM VOPCTFSWBCMF FòFDUT JG we can find unobservables linked to the probability of going to school but that are not correlated with the individual’s level of TBMBSZ %VøP *O *OEPOFTJB JO SVSBM BSFBT UIF̓ QSPCBCJMJUZ PG B DIJME T HPJOH UP school is highly correlated with the school’s QSPYJNJUZ 5IFSF FYJTUT B IJHI DPSSFMBUJPO between the length of time spent at school

BOE UIF QSPYJNJUZ PG UIF TDIPPM JO UIF WJMMBHFT 'PS &TUIFS %VøP UIJT WBSJBCMF JT B QPUFOUJBM instrumental variable as it meets this first DPOEJUJPO BOE UIJT QPUFOUJBM WBSJBCMF IBT OP EJSFDU FòFDU PO UIF PVUDPNF UIF JOEJWJEVBM T TBMBSZ 5IF FWFOUVBM FòFDU PG TDIPPMJOH on an individual’s success is measured by GVUVSF TBMBSZ MFWFM UIJT NBZ SFTVMU GSPN UIF TDIPPMJOH USBOTNJTTJPO DIBOOFM BOE BMTP CZ the fact that there is a correlation between UIF QSPYJNJUZ PG UIF TDIPPM BOE UIF MFOHUI PG UJNF TQFOU UIFSF )PXFWFS XIFO UIJT QSPYJNJUZ JT DPOUSPMMFE UIFSF JT OP SFBTPO UP UIJOL UIBU UIF TDIPPM QSPYJNJUZ WBSJBCMF XJMM influence salary level. *O UIF DBTF XIFSF XF XPVME XJTI UP NFBTVSF UIF FòFDU PG UIF +5% PO ZPVS GVUVSF TBMBSZ XIBU XPVME CF UIF JOTUSVNFOUBM WBSJBCMF Will this training allow you to earn higher TBMBSJFT 8JMM UIFSF OFDFTTBSJMZ CF B DBVTBM SFMBUJPO CFUXFFO UIF +5% USBJOJOH BOE ZPVS DBSFFS BOE TBMBSZ 5IFSF XJMM CF B DBVTBMJUZ MJOL CFUXFFO UIF +5% BOE ZPVS TBMBSZ MFWFM JG OP

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

other observable element has been able to EJSFDUMZ BòFDU ZPVS QSPCBCJMJUZ PG QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO UIF +5% BOE BMTP ZPVS TBMBSZ MFWFM #VU JT UIJT QPTTJCMF HoĂ ng Tháť‹ Thu Huyáť n 5IFSF NBZ CF B DBVTBM FòFDU PO TBMBSZ )PXFWFS XF IBWF UP MPPL GPS BO JOTUSVNFOUBM WBSJBCMF PUIFS UIBO UIF USBOTNJTTJPO DIBOOFM TVDI BT UIF DPOEJUJPOT PG UIJT USBJOJOH BDDPNNPEBUJPO GPPE JOUFSFTU PG UIF presentations and trainers. These elements BòFDU UIF QSPCBCJMJUZ PG QBSUJDJQBUJPO 5ISPVHI UIF +5% USBOTNJTTJPO DIBOOFM * XJMM CF BSNFE with useful knowledge that will eventually provide me with better opportunities on the labour market. [Christophe Jalil Nordman] The fact of participating in this training may JOEFFE IBWF BO FòFDU PO ZPVS GVUVSF DBSFFS )PXFWFS ZPV IBWF BMTP TBJE UIF RVBMJUZ PG PSHBOJTBUJPO IPUFM BDDPNNPEBUJPO etc. could influence your probability of QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO UIF +5% *U JT BMTP QPTTJCMF that certain individuals decided to come

Box

or not come by taking climatic and geographic conditions into account. Certain JOEJWJEVBMT MJLF UIF TVO PUIFST UIF TFB "SF the conditions met to consider the climatic BTQFDUT BT BO JOTUSVNFOUBM WBSJBCMF -FBSOJOH FòFDUJWFOFTT QFSIBQT NFBTVSFE CZ UIF DPOEJUJPOT PG ZPVS XFMDPNF IFSF IBT BO JOøVFODF PO UIF QPUFOUJBM GPS BDRVJSJOH LOPXMFEHF CVU BMTP MBUFS PO ZPVS DBSFFS BOE your capacity to learn. The second condition to make an instrumental variable of it is not met. As far as my instrument proposal o̓ DMJNBUJD DPOEJUJPOT o JT DPODFSOFE * UIJOL that the first condition can be met. The second condition to make it an instrumental WBSJBCMF JT BMTP NPSF EJĂłDVMU UP DPOUFTU JU is impossible to claim that your liking for NPVOUBJOT PS UIF TFB DBO IBWF BO FòFDU PO your future level of income. *O DPODMVTJPO UIF BEWBOUBHF PG UIF JOTUSVNFOUBM WBSJBCMFT UFDIOJRVF JT UIBU JU controls the selection of the observables and VOPCTFSWBCMFT DPOUSBSZ UP UIF NBUDIJOH method.

28 Advantages and Limits of Instrumental Variables Method

Advantages It does not directly affect the outcome, and allows us to correct the selection bias and the unobservables that do affect the outcome. A method that is less strict than the correction method of selection models. Limits We have to find a credible instrument (possibility of weak instruments). Generalisation and interpretation is risky when we have a Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE). Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

2.3.5. Microfinance at AFD. What Use Can We Make of the Evaluations?

DIJMESFO TDIPPMFE BOE UIF JNQBDUT BSF UIF reduction of the illiteracy rate or the rise in the rate of schooling.

[Bertrand Savoye]

*O UIJT DIBJO PG DBVTBMJUZ GSPOU MJOF XPSLFST BSF principally concerned with the achievement MJOL *OEFFE JU JT BU UIJT MFWFM UIBU UIF GSPOU MJOF workers devote most of their energy and that UIF HSFBUFTU SJTLT BSF SVO *U JT BCTPMVUFMZ DSVDJBM to ensure that the planned achievements are JOEFFE UIPTF FYQFDUFE CPUI JO RVBOUJUZ BOE RVBMJUZ

My presentation will allow us to return to UIF TVCKFDUT EFBMU XJUI ZFTUFSEBZ BGUFSOPPO CZ 'MPSFOU #ร Eร DBSSBUT BOE QBSUJDVMBSMZ UP B certain divorce between the world of research BOE UIF XPSME PG EFDJEFST B QIFOPNFOPO UIBU XF DBO BMTP PCTFSWF o UP B DFSUBJO FYUFOU at AFD โ between the concerns of front line workers and those of researchers. During this QSFTFOUBUJPO * BN HPJOH UP EFWFMPQ UISFF QPJOUT &YQMBJO XIZ GSPOU MJOF XPSLFST BSF NPSF JOUFSFTUFE JO UIF DBSSZJOH PVU PG QSPKFDUT than in their outcomes or impacts; - Demonstrate the input of capitalisation TUVEJFT JO "'% T TFDUPSBM TUSBUFHJFT BOE more particularly in AFDโ s strategy in the microfinance sector; - Present the use AFD made of lessons learned from ex post assessments and scientific impact assessments. Greater Focus on Carrying Out the Projects Than on Their Outcomes and Impacts "U "'% BT JO UIF XIPMF PG UIF EPOPS XPSME we use the logical framework method to structure our interventions by relying on the supposed causal relationship between the NFBOT UIF QSPKFDUT UIF PVUDPNFT BOE UIF FYQFDUFE JNQBDUT PG UIF QSPKFDUT $POTFRVFOUMZ UP HJWF BO FYBNQMF GPS B TDIPPM DPOTUSVDUJPO QSPKFDU UIF NFBOT notably consist of the financing provided by AFD; the achievements are the constructed buildings; the outcomes are the number of

$POTFRVFOUMZ JG XF UBLF BT BO FYBNQMF UIF QSPKFDU GPS UIF CVJMEJOH PG B CSJEHF XIBU XJMM CF NPTU JNQPSUBOU XJMM CF UIF RVBMJUZ PG UIF DPOTUSVDUFE CSJEHF *G XF PCTFSWF PODF UIF DPOTUSVDUJPO JT DPNQMFUF UIBU UIF FYQFDUFE outcome or impact has not been reached oอ BT GPS FYBNQMF UIF SJTF JO SPBE USBรณD BOE UIF improvement in household living standards or the rise in economic activity that might SFTVMU GSPN JU o UIJT XJMM OPU IBWF BOZ NBKPS DPOTFRVFODFT GPS "'% OPS GPS BOZ PUIFS EPOPS 0O UIF PUIFS IBOE JG UIF RVBMJUZ PG UIF XPSL JT EFGFDUJWF PS XIBU JT NPSF UIF contract award occurred in conditions that might give rise to contestation (as we often work in certain countries where there may CF B HSFBU EFBM PG DPSSVQUJPO UIF SJTLT BSF PG course considerable. 5IF TFDPOE SFBTPO UIBU NBZ FYQMBJO XIZ attention is not focused on outcomes and impacts is that the monitoring of these JOEJDBUPST JT EJรณDVMU UP DBSSZ PVU TJODF UIJT implies accessing sources of information that do not necessarily result directly from UIF QSPKFDU )FODF XF PCTFSWF UIBU UIF NPOJUPSJOH PG "'% QSPKFDU PVUDPNFT JT HMPCBMMZ VOTBUJTGBDUPSZ BOE UIFSF BSF TFWFSBM SFBTPOT GPS UIJT UBSHFUT BSF OPU DPSSFDUMZ

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

EFöOFE UIF SFUBJOFE PVUDPNF BOE JNQBDU JOEJDBUPST BSF OPU SFBMMZ NFBTVSBCMF UIF system of monitoring these indicators is not

Graph

SFBMJTUJD BT JU SFGFST UP TPVSDFT PG EBUB UIBU BSF FJUIFS JOFYJTUFOU PS JNQPTTJCMF UP JNQMFNFOU etc.

50 Verified Observations in Microfinance

4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5

AFD

Average moyennes

2 1.5 1 0.5 0

Source: Consultative Group to Assist the Poor (CGAP).

5IJT HFOFSBM PCTFSWBUJPO BCPVU UIF EJóDVMUZ PG GPMMPXJOH UIF SFTVMUT PG QSPKFDUT IPMET USVF QBSUJDVMBSMZ JO UIF EPNBJO PG NJDSPöOBODF *O "'% QBSUJDJQBUFE JO UIF SFWJFX Smart Aid for Microfinance Index BO FYFSDJTF MFE CZ $("1 $POTVMUBUJWF (SPVQ UP "TTJTU UIF Poor) for the rating of donors in the domain of microfinance using nine indicators. AFD obtained higher ratings than the average scores obtained by ten donors for eight of the OJOF JOEJDBUPST *U XBT QBSUJDVMBSMZ XFMM SBUFE for knowledge production. On the other IBOE QSPKFDU TVQFSWJTJPO BOE UIF DBSSZJOH out of portfolio reviews appear to be clearly beneath the level observed for other donors. *O WJFX PG UIF BCPWF "'% MBVODIFE BO FYUFSOBM SFWJFX PG JUT NJDSPöOBODF QPSUGPMJP JO

5IF SFWJFX XBT DP NBOBHFE CZ $("1 and was based upon the analysis of certain TQFDJöD JOTUSVNFOUT "3*; HVBSBOUFFT MPBOT BOE FRVJUZ QBSUJDJQBUJPO PG UIF TVCTJEJBSZ Proparco that are dedicated to the private TFDUPS BT XFMM BT VQPO UIF JOEJWJEVBM BOBMZTJT PG QSPKFDUT 5IF SBUJOH PG UIFTF QSPKFDUT XBT DFOUSFE PO UISFF DSJUFSJB UIBU XFSF FBTJFTU UP KVEHF SFMFWBODF FòFDUJWFOFTT BOE EVSBCJMJUZ measured in terms of sustainability and öOBODJBM BVUPOPNZ 5IF FòFDUJWFOFTT DSJUFSJPO XBT POMZ VTFE JO B TVCTJEJBSZ NBOOFS because there was sometimes a lack of clear QSPKFDU UBSHFUT BT GPS UIF JNQBDU DSJUFSJPO JU XBT OPU UBLFO JOUP BDDPVOU CFDBVTF PG B MBDL PG TVóDJFOU JOGPSNBUJPO

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

The Contribution of Capitalisation Studies in the Definition of AFDโ s Microfinance Strategy #FGPSF EFBMJOH XJUI UIJT QBSUJDVMBS EPNBJO PG NJDSPรถOBODF MFU VT FYBNJOF IPX "'% T intervention strategies are generally defined JO UIF EJรฒFSFOU TFDUPST PG BDUJWJUZ 5IF MFTTPOT MFBSOFE GSPN FWBMVBUJPOT PG UIF FรณDJFODZ BOE impact of aid are only one of the parameters that contribute to the definition of the intervention strategies of a development BHFODZ TVDI BT "'% 2VJUF MPHJDBMMZ PUIFS QBSBNFUFST IBWF UP CF BEESFTTFE TVDI BT - The demand of the countries or partner institutions; 5IF QSPKFDU NBOBHFNFOU DBQBDJUJFT PG UIF QBSUOFS DPVOUSJFT XIJDI TPNFUJNFT lead to our avoiding or withdrawing from sectors that are nevertheless essential UP EFWFMPQNFOU PS GPDVTJOH PO UIF interventions of civil society when states GBJM UPP NVDI UIVT UIF PWFSSFQSFTFOUBUJPO of states emerging from crises in the geographical breakdown of microfinance QPSUGPMJPT DBO CF FYQMBJOFE CZ UIF EJรณDVMUZ of financing public action in these countries; - The positioning of other development agencies; 5IF FYQFSUJTF BOE JOUFSFTU PG "'% PS PO B XJEFS TDBMF 'SBODF FUD The first interventions of AFD in the domain PG NJDSPรถOBODF EBUF CBDL UP 5IF main challenge was to find an alternative to BHSJDVMUVSBM EFWFMPQNFOU CBOLT JO "GSJDB BT most of them had gone bankrupt. Several NPEFMT XFSF TVQQPSUFE NVUVBM OFUXPSLT TFMG NBOBHFE WJMMBHF TBWJOHT CBOLT TFMG NBOBHFE OFUXPSLT BOE NJDSP CBOLT the latter term mainly designating public MJNJUFE DPNQBOZ .'*T JO UIJT EPNBJO "O

important strategic shift took place at the beginning of the new millennium following an internal review of the repeated failures in UIF SVSBM NJDSPรถOBODF EPNBJO QBSUJDVMBSMZ JO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG JOUFHSBUFE QSPKFDUT components. This shift resulted in the GPMMPXJOH EFDJTJPOT BOE PSJFOUBUJPOT - The creation of a dedicated service whose monitoring was previously most often EPOF CZ UIF IFBET PG BHSJDVMUVSBM QSPKFDUT - Priority given to the financial viability of NJDSPรถOBODF JOTUJUVUJPOT .'*T - A concentration of interventions in urban microfinance with operators who had BMSFBEZ QSPWFE UIFNTFMWFT XIJDI XBT associated with the growing share of DPSQPSBUF .'*T UP UIF EFUSJNFOU PG iQSPKFDU TUSVDUVSFTw BOE UP B MFTTFS NFBTVSF TBWJOHT and credit mutuals. - Financing no longer only in the form of grants but also in loans. A reinforcement of interventions has taken QMBDF TJODF BT UIF SFTVMU PG B QFFS SFWJFX DBSSJFE PVU JO BDDPSEJOH UP XIJDI UIF comparative advantage of AFD lay in its SFBM LOPXMFEHF PG UIF DPVOUSJFT JUT IVNBO resources and its capacity to reply to the EJรฒFSFOU รถOBODJOH OFFET PG .'*T 'JOBMMZ OFX DIBOHFT JO TUSBUFHZ IBWF UBLFO QMBDF BT B SFTVMU PG UIF BCPWF NFOUJPOFE microfinance portfolio review. Following this SFWJFX PVU PG QSPKFDUT SBUFE อ QSPKFDUT XFSF KVEHFE SFMFWBOU TVTUBJOBCMF อ FรณDJFOU BOE FรฒFDUJWF 'JOBMMZ TJY QSPKFDUT XFSF KVEHFE UP CF JOFรณDJFOU UISFF OPU WFSZ BDDFQUBCMF OJOF WFSZ BDDFQUBCMF BOE FJHIU HPPE /P QSPKFDU XBT KVEHFE UP CF CBE PS FYDFMMFOU

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

Diagram 28 Ratings Criteria Relevance of the ProjectÂ

Efficiency of the Project Â

Coherence of targets, respect of good practices, quality of the beneficiary, choice of instrumentsÂ

Respect of deadlines, quality of reporting and supervisionÂ

Sustainability of the BeneficiaryÂ

Effectiveness of the Project Â

PAR30, productivity, operational self­ sufficiency rate, operating costs ratio, size and growth capacityÂ

Achievements attained,targets attained, respect of loan payments, respect of conditions  precedent and commitments Â

Global Rating Refined Global Rating

Source: Author’s construction.

5IF SBUJOH PG UIFTF QSPKFDUT DFOUSFE PO the three criteria for which it was easiest to PCUBJO JOGPSNBUJPO SFMFWBODF FóDJFODZ BOE EVSBCJMJUZ NFBTVSFE JO UFSNT PG TVTUBJOBCJMJUZ BOE ÜOBODJBM BVUPOPNZ 5IF FòFDUJWFOFTT criterion was only used in a subsidiary NBOOFS BT JU XBT TPNFUJNFT EJóDVMU UP DMFBSMZ EFÜOF UIF QSPKFDU T UBSHFUT BT GPS UIF JNQBDU DSJUFSJPO JU XBT OPU UBLFO JOUP BDDPVOU CFDBVTF PG JOTVóDJFOU JOGPSNBUJPO 'PMMPXJOH UIJT QPSUGPMJP SFWJFX XPSL five important recommendations were GPSNVMBUFE BOE GPS UIF NPTU QBSU JNQMFNFOUFE GSPN UIVT SFTVMUJOH JO B SFBM TUSBUFHJD SFPSJFOUBUJPO - Strengthen the share of rural microfinance JO UIF QPSUGPMJP UXP UIJSET PG UIF QSPKFDUT BQQSPWFE TJODF BOE UIF HSFBU NBKPSJUZ PG UIF PO HPJOH QSPKFDUT BSF JO UIJT EPNBJO - Support market infrastructures (financing PG TVQQPSU UP QSPGFTTJPOBM .'* BTTPDJBUJPOT TVDI BT UIF POF JO $BNCPEJB PS JOJUJBUJWFT aiming at disseminating good practices);

(VJEF JO B NPSF EFUFSNJOFE NBOOFS interventions in the direction of mediumTJ[FE .'*T JNQMFNFOUBUJPO PG B GBDJMJUZ EFEJDBUFE UP TNBMM .'*T &ODPVSBHF JOOPWBUJWF QSPKFDUT JO BTQFDUT PG SFTQPOTJCMF NJDSPÜOBODF GPS FYBNQMF the recent financing of a mobile banking study); - Construct a doctrine about responsible microfinance (implementation of a social and environmental assessment scorecard). The Use of the Results of &Y 1PTU Evaluations and Scientific Impact Evaluations 'PS "'% GPVS QSJODJQBM UBSHFUT BSF BJNFE BU EVSJOH FWBMVBUJPOT BDDPVOU GPS UIF QSPQFS use of financing (accountability); contribute to the improvement of operational practices (capitalisation); participate in the production of academic knowledge; establish a partnership-based dialogue with the EJòFSFOU TUBLFIPMEFST XIP QBSUJDJQBUF JO UIF JNQMFNFOUBUJPO PG UIF QSPKFDU

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

4JODF B TZTUFN PG EFDFOUSBMJTFE TZTUFNBUJD ex post FWBMVBUJPO GPS BMM QSPKFDUT has been implemented. The evaluations UBLF QMBDF TJY UP FJHIUFFO NPOUIT BGUFS UIF UFDIOJDBM DPNQMFUJPO PG UIF QSPKFDUT 'JGUZ PS TP QSPKFDUT BSF FWBMVBUFE FWFSZ ZFBS PG XIJDI three or four are in the microfinance domain. "MUIPVHI UIF TZTUFN BJNT BU UIF EJรฒFSFOU BCPWF NFOUJPOFE UBSHFUT JU JT QSJODJQBMMZ part of a global method of accountability and partnership-based dialogue with QSPKFDU NBOBHFNFOU 5IFTF FWBMVBUJPOT EP OPU IPXFWFS QSPWJEF NBOZ MFTTPOT GPS capitalisation. 'VSUIFSNPSF "'% IBT DPOEVDUFE B EP[FO PS TP TDJFOUJรถD JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPOT PG XIJDI GPVS were in the microfinance or neighbouring EPNBJOT UIF "%ร '* NJDSPรถOBODF JOTUJUVUJPO JO .BEBHBTDBS UIF "M "NBOB NJDSPรถOBODF JOTUJUVUJPO JO .PSPDDP the Sky health micro-insurance institution JO $BNCPEJB BOE DPODFTTJPOBM UFSN TUVEFOU MPBOT JO 4PVUI "GSJDB What lessons can be learned from these JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPOT The target of accountability is turning out UP CF EJรณDVMU UP BUUBJO 'JSTUMZ JNQBDU JT PGUFO NFBTVSFE PWFS UIF TIPSU UFSN BU B moment when the institutions studied and the products they develop are not always TUBCMF XIFSFBT UIF FรฒFDUT PG NJDSPDSFEJU EFWFMPQNFOU DBO CF TVTUBJOFE 4FDPOEMZ the population concerned by the study is not necessarily representative of the whole PG UIF CFOFรถDJBSZ QPQVMBUJPO 5IVT GPS UIF "M "NBOB QSPKFDU JU DPODFSOFE JOEJWJEVBMT XIP had the highest probability of borrowing; GPS UIF 4LZ QSPKFDU JU XBT JOEJWJEVBMT XIP responded to the incentives.

0O UIF PUIFS IBOE UIF UBSHFU PG DPOUSJCVUJOH UP UIF LOPXMFEHF QSPEVDUJPO IBT GPS UIF NPTU QBSU CFFO BUUBJOFE 5IF 4*" 4USBUFHJD *NQBDU "TTFTTNFOU PG UIF "M "NBOB QSPKFDU IBT SFTVMUFE JO BO improvement of the knowledge about the disincentives to microcredit in rural areas. 5IBU PG UIF 4LZ QSPKFDU IBT IJHIMJHIUFE UIF IJHI FMBTUJDJUZ PG UIF EFNBOE GPS BรฒPSEBCMF NJDSP IFBMUI JOTVSBODF *U IBT BMTP BMMPXFE us to better understand the (big and rapid) FDPOPNJD FรฒFDUT BOE UIF FรฒFDUT PO IFBMUI CFIBWJPVS NPSF BNCJHVPVT BOE UP identify the determining factors for adhesion NPEFSBUF BEWFSTF TFMFDUJPO SJTL QFSDFQUJPO family and community influences). 'JOBMMZ UIF MFTTPOT MFBSOFE GSPN UIF 4*" conducted by AFD have mostly been rather NJYFE BOE IBWF OFJUIFS DPOTPMJEBUFE nor invalidated the positioning of AFD in UIJT TFDUPS JG UIF JNQBDU PO UIF SFEVDUJPO of poverty does not appear to be really DPODMVTJWF XF DBO OFWFSUIFMFTT SFNBSL FรฒFDUT PO UIF HFOFSBUJPO PG FDPOPNJD BDUJWJUJFT *O UIJT EPNBJO "'% DBO SFGFS OPU POMZ UP JUT PXO 4*" CVU NPSF MBSHFMZ UP UIF corpus that has been constituted from the OVNFSPVT 4*" DPOEVDUFE PWFS UIF MBTU UXFOUZ ZFBST PG XIJDI UIF WBTU NBKPSJUZ IJHIMJHIU UIF positive impacts. The motives that might lead to a disengagement of the microfinance sector MJF VQTUSFBN BU UIF MFWFM PG UIF BDIJFWFNFOUT as it has been mentioned at the beginning of UIJT QSFTFOUBUJPO XF NBZ UIJOL GPS FYBNQMF PG UIF SJTLT PG รถOBODJBM TDBOEBMT CBOLSVQUDJFT BรฒFDUJOH TNBMM EFQPTJUPST PS FWFO UIF FYJTUFODF PG UPP DMPTF UJFT XJUI DFSUBJO operators.

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

The presentation by PhĂšng Ä?ᝊc TĂšng wraps up the third day of the training. The assigned educational and methodological objectives are to show the trainees how to transcribe research questions in the form of a survey questionnaire – the poverty reduction programme P135 is used as an object of reflection.

The two final days are devoted to group work (a day and a half) and to the preparation of Saturday’s feedback (half a day). Group 1. Work on a microcredit programme in Bangladesh – database of 826 participating and non-participating households surveyed in 1991 and 1998. Exercises: Handling of Stata software and work on the data (compilation of averages by years, gender, education, expenses of the following variables for the years 1991 and 1998: age, gender, education, household expenses by level of education, etc.); statistical approaches to the effects of treatment using the double differences and pairing methods, then an application of the pairing methods. Interpretation of the outcomes of nonexperimental assessment. Group 2. Work on the upstream stages of data analysis such as they were presented during the week and interpretation of the outcomes. The trainees reflect on the ADĂŠFI microfinance programme in Madagascar. Exercises: Defining the usable methods for this type of assessment, translation of the chosen methodology into a questionnaire. The synthesis of the work is presented in the workshop by each of the constituted groups.

Reading Text (www.tamdaoconf.com) CLING, J-P., M. RAZAFINDRAKOTO, F. ROUBAUD (2008), L’Êvaluation d’impact des politiques: enjeux, mĂŠthodes, rĂŠsultats, in LAGRÉE, S. (editor) Nouvelles approches mĂŠthodologiques appliquĂŠes au dĂŠveloppement (2), Les JournĂŠes de Tam Ä?ảo, universitĂŠ d’ÊtĂŠ en sciences sociales.

Selective Bibliography #&%&$"33"54 ' BOE $ -"1&/6 j ̓²WBMVFS M JNQBDU EF MB NJDSPĂśOBODF CJMBO EFT QSBUJRVFT FU QSPQPTJUJPO QPVS VOF BQQSPDIF NJYUF x Techniques Financières et DĂŠveloppement #&3/"3% 5 i3VSBM .JDSP ĂśOBODF JO .PSPDDP -FTTPOT GSPN BO PO HPJOH 3BOEPNJ[FE 4UVEZi QSFTFOUFE BU UIF *OUFSOBUJPOBM $POGFSFODF i5IF *OGPSNBM 4FDUPS BOE *OGPSNBM &NQMPZNFOU 4UBUJTUJDBM .FBTVSFNFOU &DPOPNJD *NQMJDBUJPOT BOE 1VCMJD 1PMJDJFTw .BZ )BOPJ 7JFUOBN $-*/( + 1 $ $6-"4 . 3";"'*/%3",050 BOE ' 306#"6% i&DPOPNJD 5SBOTJUJPO &YQFSJFODFE BOE 1FSDFJWFE CZ UIF 1PQVMBUJPO "OBMZTJT PG UIF $PNQMFNFOUBSJUZ #FUXFFO 2VBOUJUBUJWF BOE 2VBMJUBUJWF "QQSPBDIFTi JO -"(3&& 4 TDJFOUJĂśD FE $PMMFDUJPO ConfĂŠrences et SĂŠminaires OÂĄ "'% ²'&0 %&)&+*" 3 BOE 4 8")#" i$BVTBM &òFDUT JO̓ /POFYQFSJNFOUBM 4UVEJFT Reevaluating the Evaluation of Training 1SPHSBNTi Journal of the American Statistical Association

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

%6'-0 & i4DIPPMJOH BOE -BCPS .BSLFU $POTFRVFODFT PG 4DIPPM $POTUSVDUJPO JO *OEPOFTJB &WJEFODF GSPN BO 6OVTVBM 1PMJDZ &YQFSJNFOUi American Economic Review %61"4 1 j̓ 1PVSRVPJ SBOEPNJTFS 1PVSRVPJ M Ă?WBMVBUJPO E JNQBDU FTU FMMF QMVT EJĂłDJMF RV JM O Z QBSBĂ”U̓ ̓ x + 1"- &VSPQF USBJOJOH UPPM FWBMVBUJPO PG TPDJBM QPMJDJFT &/4 1BSJT (-&88& 1 . ,3&.&3 BOE 4 .06-*/ i5FYUCPPLT BOE 5FTU 4DPSFT &WJEFODF GSPN B 1SPTQFDUJWF &WBMVBUJPO JO ,FOZBi Mimeo )BSWBSE 6OJWFSTJUZ )&$,."/ + ) *$)*.63" BOE 1 50%% “Matching as an Econometric Evaluation &TUJNBUPS &WJEFODF GSPN &WBMVBUJOH B +PC 5SBJOJOH 1SPHSBNNFi Review of Economic Studies -"(3&& 4U + 1 $-*/( . 3";"'*/%3",050 BOE ' 306#"6% TDJFOUJĂśD FET StratĂŠgies de rĂŠduction de la pauvretĂŠÂ : approches mĂŠthodologiques et transversales .BJTPO E Ă?EJUJPO 5SJ 5IVD )BOPJ QVCMJDBUJPO BMTP BWBJMBCMF JO 7JFUOBNFTF both versions can be downloaded free of charge on the website www.tamdaoconf. com). -"-0/%& 3 i&WBMVBUJOH UIF Econometric Evaluations of Training 1SPHSBNTi American Economic Review, /"6%&5 + % + %&-"36& BOE 5 #&3/"3% i*NQBDU &WBMVBUJPOT " 5PPM GPS "DDPVOUBCJMJUZ i -FTTPOT GSPN &YQFSJFODF ConfĂŠrences et SĂŠminaires OÂĄ "'% 304&/#"6. 1 BOE % 36#*/ i5IF Central Role of the Propensity Score in 0CTFSWBUJPOBM 4UVEJFT GPS $BVTBM &òFDUTi Biometrika QQ

36#*/ % i&TUJNBUJOH $BVTBM &òFDUT PG 5SFBUNFOUT JO 3BOEPNJ[FE BOE /POSBOEPNJ[FE 4UVEJFTi Journal of Educational Psychology o 4.*5) " + BOE 1 & 50%% i%PFT .BUDIJOH 0WFSDPNF -BMPOEF T $SJUJRVF PG /POFYQFSJNFOUBM &TUJNBUPST i Journal of Econometrics o

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

List of Trainees Surname and first name

Establishment

Domain/Discipline

Bùi Đức Phi Hùng

Central Vietnam Institute of Social Sciences

Development economy

Bùi Thị Hương Trầm Đặng Viết Đạt

Đỗ Thị Ngân

Đỗ Thu Trang Emorine Marine (auditeur libre) Hoàng Thị Thu Huyền Lê Nguyễn Duy Oanh Lê Thị Hằng Giang Leav Meng Ngô Văn Huấn Ngô Văn Thạo Nguyễn Khánh Duy Nguyễn Lê Hải Ly Nguyễn Thị Phương Thảo

Research theme

Challenges, opportunities and risks linked to economic development Assessment of the impacts Institute of Research of the industrialisationon Family and Economy modernisation process on Gender household economies Institute of Policies Assessment of the and Administration Public administration effectiveness of financial Zone IV subsidy policies for SMEs Northern Institute of Research on Sociology, sustainable New rural areas and living Sustainable development standards impacts Development Mekong Development Development Education Research Institute Centre d’études et Multidimensional poverty, de recherches sur Development governance, social le développement economy inequalities (CERDI) Accumulation of capital in Southern Institute Development rural zones, impact on the of Social Sciences economy economy and social issues Institute of Risk prevention methods Development Economy for Vietnamese enterprises Research Sustainable development École polytechnique Economy indexes in the tourism sector University JeanFinancing of SMEs in Law Moulin Lyon 3 Cambodia Sociology, public Policy assessment, social University of Đà Lạt policies security Development Agricultural cooperatives, École supérieure economy fall in poverty Impacts of investments University of Development in human capital on the Economy economy productivity of SMEs in Việt Nam Social Sciences International trade Economy, finance Training Institute Economy, University of Đà Lạt management of Economy, finance commercial affairs

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Email phihungvptbv@ gmail.com buihuongtram@ yahoo.com vietdatdanghv4@ gmail.com ngan.isdn@gmail. com trangdo@mdri.org. vn marine.emorine@ gmail.com htth76@yahoo. com.vn oanhkitty@gmail. com pomelog@yahoo.fr meng_sciencepo@ yahoo.com huanxhhdl@gmail. com thaonvbt@gmail. com nkduy2002@yahoo. com nlhaily@gmail.com thaonguyendhdl@ gmail.com

Surname and first name

Establishment

Domain/Discipline

Nguyễn Thị Yến

University of Economy and Business Management

Development economy

Nguyễn Văn Anh

University of Đà Lạt

Economy, management of commercial affairs

NY Vichet Phạm Minh Tiến Phạm Thị Thùy Trang Phạm Trương Hương Giang PHAY Chantha Vũ Thị Thư Thư Vũ Thị Vân Ngọc

Royal University of Law and Economic Sciences University of Economy University of Social and Human Sciences Central Vietnam Institute of Social Sciences Royal University of Law and Economic Sciences Centre of Analysis and Forecasting Centre of Analysis and Forecasting

Law Development economy Sociology

Research theme

Email

Microfinance, agricultural economy, rural nguyenyenlinh03@ development, poverty and yahoo.com inequality Economy, finance

vananhdhdl@gmail. com

Intellectual property and economic development vichetny@gmail.com (Cambodia) phamtien411@ Poverty and microfinance gmail.com phamthuyQuantitative methodology, trang1810@gmail. sociology com

Economy

Financial risks, agricultural populations

slim_river2505@ yahoo.com

Law

Evolution of movables’ pledge in Cambodian law

phaychantha22@ gmail.com

Economy Economy

Enterprises faced with crisis thuvu90@gmail.com Social networks

vanngoc206@gmail. com

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

6OEFSTUBOEJOH 1BTU $SJTFT UP #FUUFS .BOBHF UIF 1SFTFOU *OJUJBUJPO UP (FP )JTUPSJDBM 3JTL̓.PEFMMJOH 5IF Red River Swelling) Alexis Drogoul – IRD, Benoit Gaudou – University of Toulouse, Nasser Gasmi – University of Rouen, Arnaud Grignard – University of Paris 6, Patrick Taillandier – University of Rouen, Olivier Tessier – ÉFEO, VĂľ Ä?ᝊc Ă‚n – MSI-IFI

The aim of this workshop is to introduce trainees to a methodological approach referred to as geo-historical modelling. 5IJT NFUIPE BMMPXT VT CZ XPSLJOH GSPN EPDVNFOUT FZFXJUOFTT SFQPSUT NBQT BOE IJTUPSJDBM IZQPUIFTFT UP DPODFJWF SFBMJTUJD computer models of past events with the PCKFDUJWF PG BMMPXJOH DPOUFNQPSBSZ QMBZFST to understand them in a dynamic and active manner and thus place current assessment or risk management strategies concerning

comparable facts in a historical perspective. The emphasis is particularly placed on the FYQFSJNFOUBM QPTTJCJMJUJFT PòFSFE CZ UIJT approach. The whole workshop is devoted UP UIF TUVEZ PG UIF +VMZ "VHVTU øPPEJOH PG )Ă‹ /Ě˜J BOE JO UIF QSPWJODF PG #ĚƒD /JOI XIJDI IBT CFFO DIPTFO GPS JUT well-documented character that allows an accurate reconstitution of the event in time and in space.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

The principal stages of this training will be conducted according to the following QSPHSBNNF " QSFTFOUBUJPO PG UIF IJTUPSJDBM HFPHSBQIJDBM BOE QPMJUJDBM DPOUFYU - A methodological perspective about the constitution of a documentary corpus and data collection concerning this type of event; $PMMFDUFE EBUB JOEFYJOH NFUIPEPMPHZ via the incremental construction of a specific HFPHSBQIJDBM JOGPSNBUJPO TZTUFN (*4 - Dealing with missing or fragmented EBUB JODPSQPSBUJPO PG IZQPUIFTFT BOE EPDVNFOUT GPS UIF DPOTUSVDUJPO PG UIF (*4 3FQSFTFOUFE SJTL NPEFMMJOH TXFMMJOH øPPEJOH 8IJDI NPEFMT TIPVME CF DIPTFO 8IBU MJOLT TIPVME CF FTUBCMJTIFE XJUI DPMMFDUFE EBUB - Modelling of risk management and ways of combatting flooding. Which players should CF SFQSFTFOUFE 8IJDI NPEFMT TIPVME SFQSFTFOU UIFN )PX TIPVME XF DIPPTF UIF CFIBWJPVST BOE EFDJTJPOT UP SFQSFTFOU - The presentation of a possible model of øPPEJOH JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J JO The two final days of the workshop will be devoted to group work under the supervision of a trainer. The final stage is an implementation of the presented model to FYQMPSF UIF EJòFSFOU IZQPUIFTFT TVSSPVOEJOH SJTL NBOBHFNFOU SFQSFTFOUBUJPO BOE BTTFTTNFOU PG BMUFSOBUJWF EFDJTJPOT enrichment of a model in order to take into BDDPVOU TVQQMFNFOUBSZ QMBZFST PS EBUB FUD

On Sunday 21st July, the trainers devote a half-day to introducing the trainees to the different types of computer tools that will be used during the training. This session allows the trainers to install the necessary software tools on the trainees’ computers, to verify that no technical problem will prevent their correct functioning and also to provide the trainees with an introduction about how to use the software.

(Transcript) Day 1, Monday 22nd July Introduction of trainers and trainees (cf. trainers’ biographies, list of trainees added at end of chapter).

2.4.1. Presentation and Methodological Targets [Alexis Drogoul] The starting point of our workshop is to use B QJFDF PG JOGPSNBUJPO UIF MPDBM SFDPMMFDUJPOT PG B DPNNVOJUZ JO PSEFS UP DPOTUSVDU B MJWJOH memory that will allow us to better prepare UIF NBOBHFNFOU PG GVUVSF SJTLT -FBSOJOH from past events entails the resolution of at MFBTU UISFF QSPCMFNT - Accessing historical data (written and BSDIBFPMPHJDBM TPVSDFT FUD #VJMEJOH JOGPSNBUJPO GSPN UIJT EBUB BOE giving it meaning; #FJOH DBQBCMF PG CVJMEJOH MPHJDBM TDFOBSJPT for contemporary communities.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

The idea is not to take the place of the historian but to constitute a collection of tools in order to accompany the historical method. These tools belong to the domain of computer sciences and technologies. 5IFZ BMMPX VT UP QSFEJDU BOBMZTF BOE SFEVDF UIF EJòFSFOU SJTLT JO PSEFS UP JTTVF UIF ÜSTU XBSOJOHT FEVDBUF QFPQMF PSHBOJTF FTDBQF SPVUFT FUD

Graph

The domain of computer science allows us to deal simultaneously and rapidly with large volumes of data – this implies the BDRVJTJUJPO PG QBTU BOE QSFTFOU JOGPSNBUJPO GSPN EJòFSFOU TZTUFNT %JHJUBM JOGPSNBUJPO has the advantage of being registered and memorised.

51 Availability of Digital Information The availability of digital information about past risk events is strongly dependent on when they have happenedÂ

Digital information Future

Past

500

1000

1500 1600 1700 1800

1900

2000

today

Source: Author’s construction.

0WFS UIF MBTU UFO ZFBST XF IBWF XJUOFTTFE B WFSJUBCMF FYQMPTJPO JO UIF QSPEVDUJPO PG EJHJUBM JOGPSNBUJPO DPODFSOJOH EJTBTUFST whether it is institutional – online access to EJòFSFOU XPSLT SFQPSUT BOE UIFTFT BCPVU EJTBTUFST o PS JOGPSNBM UIBU QSPEVDFE CZ JOEJWJEVBMT PO TPDJBM OFUXPSLT GPS FYBNQMF

'BDFCPPL 5XJUUFS FUD .FBTVSFT PG TDJFOUJĂśD PSJHJO o TBUFMMJUFT TUBUJPOT PO FBSUI̓ o BSF instantaneously shared via these social OFUXPSLT UIF DBTF PG UIF 'VLVTIJNB EJTBTUFS resulting in a correlation between physical dynamics and dynamics of opinion.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Graph

52 A Production of New Digital Information Modeling and simulation can produce new digital information, albeit of a different kind, by interpretation and extrapolationÂ

1 Digital simulation 2 Digitisation

1 2

3 Digital information 3 Future

Past

500

1000

1500 1600 1700 1800

1900

2000

today

Source: Author’s construction.

"MM UIJT JOGPSNBUJPO SFQSFTFOUT FYUSBPSEJOBSZ material for tomorrow’s historians. The FYJTUFODF PG TPDJBM OFUXPSLT JT SFDFOU IPXFWFS BOE UIFSF XBT TUJMM MJUUMF EJHJUBM information available only ten to twenty years BHP *O PSEFS UP ÜMM UIJT HBQ UXP TUSBUFHJFT NBZ CF DPOTJEFSFE UIF EJHJUJTBUJPO BOE BOBMZTJT PG QIZTJDBM EPDVNFOUT o UIF NBKPSJUZ PG EJHJUBM information of which we have access to concerning past disasters; automatic analysis BOE FYQMPJUBUJPO CZ EBUB NJOJOH UFDIOJRVFT PG BMSFBEZ EJHJUBMJTFE EPDVNFOUT XIJDI XJMM eventually allow us to create new information UISPVHI UIF FYQMPJUBUJPO PG SFMBUJPOTIJQT between the documents.

)PX DBO XF UIFO SFDPOTUSVDU UPEBZ FWFOUT GSPN UIJT EBUB (FP IJTUPSJDBM modelling provides a response that is CBTFE PO BO FYUSBQPMBUJPO GSPN UIF available and sometimes processed digital EBUB B SFTQPOTF̓ UIBU FOUBJMT BUUFNQUJOH to reconstruct past disastrous situations through a computer model by using dynamic simulations. These simulations represent a new type of digital information and the data UIFZ QSPEVDF JT OPU FRVJWBMFOU UP UIF EBUB GPVOE JO UIF ĂśFME JU JT BSUJĂśDJBM BOE SFDSFBUFE (FP IJTUPSJDBM NPEFMMJOH JT OPU B GBJUIGVM reconstruction of the past but the conception of a series of plausible scenarios that can serve our understanding of how and why a disaster occurred and how it was managed.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

%VSJOH UIJT XPSLTIPQ PVS XPSL XJMM BJN UP conceive a model of a precise disastrous event and use this model as a field of digital FYQFSJNFOUBUJPO UP UFTU EJòFSFOU IZQPUIFTFT about how the event unfolded.

2.4.2. Protection Against Flooding in Tonkin [Olivier Tessier]

The first part of Olivier Tessier’s presentation refers to a previous presentation given during the plenary sessions of the JTD 2012 (Tessier, 2013). Here, the author develops questions concerning the hydrological development of the Red River Delta by taking a historical perspective of the role of the state from the 12th century to the first half of the 20th century. We refer the reader here to the different aspects dealt with: the geomorphological and hydrological characteristics of the delta; water mastery through the progressive implementation of a powerful network of dykes (12th to 18th centuries); the global and innovative vision of the Nguyễn Dynasty, and finally the rationalising of hydrological infrastructure during the colonial period. Finally, the bibliography used for the presentation, in French and in Vietnamese, provides essential historical landmarks concerning the hydrological policy implemented in the Red River Delta at the period dealt with.

Presentation by the trainer of the files from the “"SDIJWFT $FOUSBMFT EF M *OEPDIJOF“ concerning the 1926 flooding – sources that cannot be disseminated to the public of the workshop; the references used are mentioned at the end of the chapter. Two organisation charts are presented of the players and their interrelations in the management of the crisis in the summer of 1926 in the district of Gia Lâm: - The first organisation chart gives us a global vision of the politico-administrative organisation that was mobilised during the swelling of the summer of 1926 in the Gia Lâm district, then in the combat against flooding and the sealing works of the three dyke bursts on the left bank of the Red River. It is based upon the analysis of the only archive files consulted; we cannot affirm that it mentions all the actors that were indeed involved during the crisis at a given moment at different politico-administrative levels, nor can we affirm that it comprehensively reflects the variety of roles played and the actions taken by each of the actors; - The second organisation chart deals with the transcript of the interrelationships between the Vietnamese actors (the indigenes) who intervened at the provincial level on a local scale. Only the identified actors whose status is mentioned and whose actions were catalogued in the consulted archives appear, knowing in addition that it is partly based upon on their declarations during their respective interviews.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

-FU VT HJWF B SBQJE DISPOPMPHJDBM OBSSBUJWF PG UIF TXFMMJOH BU UIF FOE PG UIF NPOUI PG +VMZ *O .BZ CZ EFDSFF UIF QSPWJODJBM BVUIPSJUJFT issue a reminder of the measures to be taken for the protection dykes in the event of swelling – name a responsible person JO FBDI EJTUSJDU EFUFSNJOF UIF OVNCFS PG XPSLFST UP CF NPCJMJTFE FUD 'SPN UIF th PG +VMZ BSDIJWF TPVSDFT announce the Red River swellings. The measures to be taken are the clearing of vegetation from the dykes and the sealing of holes and cracks; 0O UIF th +VMZ B 3FE 3JWFS MFWFM PG ̓ NFUSFT JT SFHJTUFSFE JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J 5IF

order is given to the communal agents PG UIF (JB̓ -ÉN BOE 7ÇŠO (JBOH EJTUSJDUT UP DPOTUSVDU TNBMM EZLFT PG UP NFUSFT JO IFJHIU "U UIJT EBUF UIF TXFMMJOH JT VOEFSTUPPE UP CF FYDFQUJPOBM BOE UIF limits of the dykes’ capacity to protect are reached; *O )Ă‹ /Ě˜J UIF ĂśSTU FWBDVBUJPOT BSF NBEF PG B QBSU PG UIF NBKPS øPPEQMBJO cf .BQ̓ 5IF ĂśSTU FWBDVBUJPO UPPL QMBDF PO th̓+VMZ 5IF QPQVMBUJPO SFRVFTUFE IFMQ BOE TPNF of them sought refuge on the roofs of houses surrounded by water. Straw huts were evacuated to avoid drownings and BSPVOE QFPQMF XFSF IPVTFE JO UIF former cotton mill to escape the swelling;

Map 16 Evacuations of 27th to 29th July 1926

Evacuation the 27th

Evacuation Gia Lâm night of 29th

Evacuation during the night of the 28th

Photo credits: ÉFEO photo library (Paris). Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

th +VMZ UIF Canal des Rapides overflowed PO CPUI CBOLT 5IF IFBET PG UIF (JB -ÉN BOE 7NJO (JBOH EJTUSJDUT BT XFMM BT UIF IFBET

PG UIF DBOUPOT IBE UP QFSNBOFOUMZ NPOJUPS the dykes and supervise the building of small dykes;

Map 17 Location of Rivers, Dykes and Places Vinh YĂŞn PhĂşc YĂŞn

ĂĄp C u

Dyke of H iB i

B c Ninh Châu C u

Sept Pagodes

des Canal es Rapid

HANOI

Dyke of Lâm Giu H iP hòn

g

HĂ

Ă´ng

V n Giang

H iD

Dyke of !"#$%#&'

ng

K S t

Dyke

of Luc

Dien

SĂ´ng B i Giang

My Dong

des Canal us o Bamb

H ng YĂŞn

Source: Author’s construction.

#FGPSF UIF øPPEJOHT BOE CVSTUT UIF SBJMXBZ was flooded; the sheer volume of water XBT JNQSFTTJWF JO UIF PSEFS PG ̓N per second (cf QIPUP

%VSJOH UIF OJHIU PG th UP th +VMZ B ĂśSTU EZLF CVSTU PDDVSSFE BU UIF PME (JB -ÉN dyke; "U BN UIF OFX (JB 2VÉU EZLF CVSTU the Red River rushed through the breach (cf ̓QIPUP

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Photo

29 Hà Nội-Hải Phòng Railway During the 1926 Flooding

Photo credits: ÉFEO photo library (Paris).

Photo

30 Gia Quât Cut

Soirée du 28 juillet. Evening of 28,($./*01 Rupture de l’ancienne 234"5($'6$"-5)4-,$7084 digue&

29,($./*09$:$"#9 29 juillet, 9 heures. Rupture de la nouvelle digue. ;34"5($'6$-4<$70841

Après rupture $=6,43$;34"5(

Après inondation =6,43$>''7)-?$ !

Photo credits: ÉFEO photo library (Paris).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

"U QN B TFDPOE MBSHF EZLF CSFBDI PDDVSSFE BU UIF WJMMBHF PG ÂŤJ .Ě˜ 5IF UIJSE CSFBDI PDDVSSFE CFUXFFO QN BOE QN BU UIF WJMMBHF PG -ÉN %V o UISFF NPOUIT

of work were necessary to seal this third CSFBDI XIFSFBT UIF ĂśSTU UXP XFSF TFBMFE during the month of August;

Diagram 29 Breach of the Ă i Máť™ and Lâm Du Dykes 1st : 28th in the evening, breach of the old dyke

Submersion Flooding

2nd : 29th at 9 am, breach of the new dyke

Submersion Flooding

29th at 4 pm, breach of the Ă i M dyke

Submersion Submersion Flooding

29th between 4 and 5 pm, breach of the Lâm Du dyke

Submersion

Source: Author’s construction.

0O UIF PUIFS TJEF PG UIF SJWFS JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J UIF SJWFS MFWFM XBT ̓ DN IJHIFS UIBO UIF EZLF CVU UIF DPOTUSVDUJPO PG TNBMM EZLFT was generalised. The city was not flooded (cf ̓QIPUP th +VMZ BU QN UIF RĂŠsident SupĂŠrieur de France UIF IJHIFTU BVUIPSJUZ JO 5POLJO decided to send in the army to protect UIF QPQVMBUJPO PG (JB -ÉN XIJDI XBT JO danger;

th +VMZ BU BN UIF 7JFUOBNFTF BVUIPSJUJFT JO UIF QSPWJODF PG #ĚƒD /JOI JOGPSNFE UIF RĂŠsident SupĂŠrieur of Tonkin about the XJEFOJOH PG UIF CSFBDI BU -ÉN %V BOE of the direct contact of the latter with UIF 3FE̓ 3JWFS B DIBOOFM GPSNFE OBUVSBMMZ between the River and the breach. The access ramp to the bridge was submerged. /FBSMZ ̓ QFPQMF TPVHIU SFGVHF JO UIF IBOHBST BOE USBJO XBHPOT BU (JB -ÉN station (cf ̓QIPUP

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Photo

31 Construction of a Small Dyke Outside Hà Nội by the Tirailleurs Tonkinois

Photo credits: ÉFEO photo library (Paris).

Photo

32 1926 Flooding, Access Ramp of the Gia Lâm Bridge Channel between the Red River and the breach Lâm Du breach Ái M breach

Submerged dyke

Source: Gourou (1936).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

The rainfall and the height of the swelling were very accurately measured; the progress of the swelling could thus be observed hourCZ IPVS (SBQI 5IF QSPWJODFT PG #ĚƒD /JOI BOE )Ë?OH :Ă?O XFSF TVCNFSHFE CFOFBUI

Graph

the waters of the Red River that rushed UISPVHI UIF -BN %V EZLF %VSJOH UIF OJHIU PG UIF th +VMZ IFDUBSFT PG QBEEZ fields disappeared under the water.

53 The Swelling of 28th to 31st July 1926

metres 12 11.8 11.6 11.4 11.2 11 10.8 10.6

30

31

21h

30

24h

30

15h

30

6h

3h

30

3h

24h

30

21h

30

18h

29

8h

29

10h

29

6h

29

3h

29

21h

29

24h

29

18h

29

15h

7h

29

17h ?

6h

29

9h

0h45

28

12h

23h50

10.4

31

31

31

31

31

Source: Author’s construction.

Photo

33 Provinces of Bắc Ninh and Hưng Yên Under Water

Photo credits: ÉFEO photo library (Paris).

The events took place over a period of three EBZT .PTU PG UIF XBUFS DBNF GSPN UIF -ÉN

Du breach on which we are going to work this week.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

StĂŠphane LagrĂŠe The origin of the swelling was linked to FYDFQUJPOBM SBJOGBMM VQSJWFS 8BT JU QPTTJCMF BU UIJT QFSJPE UP FWBMVBUF UIF UJNF PG BSSJWBM PG UIF TXFMMJOH JO UIF DBQJUBM [Olivier Tessier] A monitoring system was first established in BOE UIFO MBUFS DPOTPMJEBUFE TVSWFJMMBODF posts by the dykes at the communal level; TUBUJPOT VQTUSFBN PO UIF 3FE 3JWFS -Ă‹P $BJ 8F NVTU CFBS JO NJOE UXP GBDUPST BU UIBU QFSJPE LOPXMFEHF BCPVU SBJOGBMM JO UIF UXP thirds of the Red River basin situated in China was fragmentary; communication channels did not allow rapid access to information. 'JOBMMZ JU XBT POMZ GSPN UIF DJUZ PG -Ă‹P $BJ UIBU we could deduce what was happening in $IJOB BOE GSPN UIBU NPNFOU UIFSF SFNBJOFE POMZ BCPVU IPVST CFGPSF UIF TXFMMJOH BSSJWFE JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J 5IFSF XBT OPUIJOH NPSF UP do other than build small protection dykes. [Alexis Drogoul] We are going to use the information given CZ 0MJWJFS 5FTTJFS UP EFTJHO BO FYQFSJNFOUBM NPEFM UIBU SFUSBDFT UIF TFRVFODF PG UIF event. 8F NVTU BTL RVFTUJPOT BCPVU TQBDF UJNF BOE JUT EZOBNJD BOE UIF QMBZFST )PX DBO we represent the space in which the narrative VOGPMET 8IP BSF UIF QMBZFST 8IBU SPMF EP UIFZ QMBZ )PX DBO XF SFQSFTFOU UIFTF SPMFT CZ VTJOH DPNQVUFS GPSNBMJTNT

2.4.3. Representation of Space and Chronology [Nasser Gasmi] We are going to establish the link between TPDJBM TDJFODFT o IJTUPSZ o BOE NPEFMMJOH which belongs to physical sciences. Our PCKFDUJWF JT UP USBOTGPSN BSDIJWF TPVSDFT JOUP digital format. 8F BSF HPJOH UP BEESFTT RVFTUJPOT DPODFSOJOH representation of space and territory – where EJE UIF FWFOUT VOGPME 8IBU HFPHSBQIJDBM TPVSDFT BSF BWBJMBCMF 8F TIBMM EFĂśOF UIF (*4 which allow us to establish the link between a piece of digital and non-digital information. We shall then deal with the representation of a chronology – how can we use a computer UP FYQMPJU B QJFDF PG UFNQPSBM JOGPSNBUJPO Representation of Space 8IFSF EJE UIF TXFMMJOH UBLF QMBDF What data is available concerning this TXFMMJOH 8IJDI TQBDF BSF XF HPJOH UP TUVEZ 8F BSF HPJOH UP DPODFOUSBUF PO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J BOE UIF EJTUSJDU PG (JB -ÉN QSPWJODF PG #ĚƒD /JOI situated on the left bank of the Red River in UIF &BTU /PSUI &BTU RVBESBOU JO SFMBUJPO UP UIF IJTUPSJDBM DFOUSF PG UIF DBQJUBM PG *OEPDIJOB (cf.̓.BQT BOE

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Map 18 Historical Maps and Documents

Goal: Delimit the study area and collect information to construct the form of the study Hanoi and surroundings: Gia Lâm Maps from 1925 and 1926 Sources: ! National Archives Center #1, Hanoi ! Institut Géographique National (IGN) ! EFEO Source: Author’s construction.

Map 19 Map of the City of Hà Nội (1925) Contour Lines

Lakes

Red River

Buildings

Source: Department of Maps and Plans, #JCMJPUIÒRVF /BUJPOBMF EF 'SBODF-Paris.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

" รถSTU WJTVBM FYUSBDUJPO NBZ CF DBSSJFE PVU VTJOH UIJT NBQ GSPN UIBU QFSJPE UIF 3FE 3JWFS UIF MBLFT JOIBCJUFE TQBDFT DPOUPVS

MJOFT FUD 0O UIF PUIFS IBOE TJODF UIF EZLF CVSTUT BSF OPU SFQSFTFOUFE XF IBWF UP VTF other cartographic records.

Map 20 Breach of Dykes

Dykes

Cut

Source: Authorโ s construction.

/FX JOGPSNBUJPO NBZ CF NPCJMJTFE QSFTFODF DVUT BOE CSFBDIFT JO UIF MFGU QBSU (cf อ %JBHSBN We also have to incorporate information BCPVU UIF 3FE 3JWFS EBJMZ NFBTVSJOH PG XBUFS MFWFMT EBUB BCPVU UIF รธPPEJOH BOE UIF MFWFMT PG UIF 3FE 3JWFS DFOTVT EBUB PG UP รธPPET FUD

/BUVSBMMZ UIF JOUFHSBUJPO PG PME EBUB IBT B DFSUBJO OVNCFS PG DPOTUSBJOUT BU UIBU QFSJPE there was no digital terrain model (DTM); demographic census surveys were not very BDDVSBUF )PX DBO XF FTUJNBUF UIF IFJHIUT PG CVJMU VQ BSFBT 5IF BSDIJWF EPDVNFOUT BSF not always well conserved and certain ones are undated.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

Diagram 30 Other Sources of Information Goal: Get the information to recreate the dynamics of the event. Create new data tables from graphs from the archives. Source: Archives, newspapers.

15

Source: Author’s construction.

An information session is devoted to GIS: - Creation, organisation and presentation of geo-referenced data; - An information system (IS) is an organised collection of resources (material, software, human resources, data and procedures), which allows us to collect, group together, classify, process and disseminate information about a given environment; - Five essential components: acquiring of data, storage of data, data management, data analysis and restitution of data in the form of a map, and geographical information support in paper or digital format;

- Two types of format: “raster” format – an image or space is divided regularly; for each small rectangle (pixel) one or several values are associated describing the characteristics of the space; vector format, space is represented in the form of dots, lines and polygons; - Projection: mathematical operation that allows us to pass from data coordinated in longitude and latitude towards a point Y Z. We refer the reader who wishes to know more about these questions to the works listed in the bibliography (Bertin, 1998; Combe, 2007).

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Day 2, Tuesday 23rd July

[Nasser Gasmi]

[Alexis Drogoul]

Chronological Representation

8F IBWF XPSLFE PO UIF IJTUPSJDBM DPOUFYU PG the event and on the first methodological approaches that consist in delimiting space and representing it by using computer tools. 5PEBZ XF BSF HPJOH UP UBLF B MPPL BU UXP PUIFS EJNFOTJPOT PG UIF FWFOU JUT DISPOPMPHZ and the social actors that participated in its management.

Which methodology should be adopted to SFQSFTFOU UIF DISPOPMPHZ PG FWFOUT As the archival files represent more than ten UIPVTBOE EPDVNFOUT B DMFBS BOE PSHBOJTFE methodology is essential.

Diagram 31 Inventory of Archival Documents from Multiscale Analysis Indochina Tonkin

Goal:  Identify existing documents on three scales â€“ Indochina, Tonkin and HanoiÂ

Hanoi

Source: Author’s construction.

"U UIF $FOUSF PG "SDIJWFT OÂĄ UIF EPDVNFOUT are classified by theme according to their scale of study. The work consists of first listing UIF TPVSDFT PO UIF TDBMF PG *OEPDIJOB PG

5POLJO UIFO ĂśOBMMZ UIF DJUZ PG )Ă‹ /Ě˜J BOE UIF QSPWJODF PG #ĚƒD /JOI XJUI NPSF BOE NPSF accurate documents.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 32 Building a Calendar of Events and their Impacts Goal: Build a calendar with the succession of impacts and measures

July 26th 1926 July 27th 1926 July 28th 1926 July 29th 1926 … Source: Author’s construction.

Diagram 33 Ranking Data by Themes Goal: Set a theme for each 4"256.&$)%4.&$%*.4

July 26th 1926 Dykes

Behaviours

July 27th 1926 July 28th 1926 July 29th 1926

Themes Red River

Cut

… Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

5IF PCKFDUJWF JT UP DSFBUF B DBMFOEBS XJUI a succession of events and their impacts from the classified and dated archives. Each EPDVNFOU JT MJTUFE CZ UIFNF EZLFT 3FE 3JWFS DVUT BOE CSFBDIFT JOUFSBDUJPO CFUXFFO BDUPST FUD

Thus arises the problem of representing time JO B TZTUFN PG HFP IJTUPSJDBM SFQSFTFOUBUJPO how can we link a piece of temporal JOGPSNBUJPO UP B QJFDF PG TQBUJBM JOGPSNBUJPO )PX DBO XF SFQSFTFOU UIJT TQBUJBMJUZ JO B (*4

Diagram 34 Georeferencing Archives: Give a Location of “Fixed“ Data Goal: Georeference records in different places. Transform information into a GIS component.Â

Documents relating to the Red River dykes, cuts, decisions.Â

Source: Author’s construction.

%JòFSFOU EPDVNFOUT BSF BWBJMBCMF UP BMMPX VT UP HFPSFGFSFODF UIF EZLFT 'PS FYBNQMF a telegram from the French administrator in #ĚƒD /JOI IJHIMJHIUT UIF IFJHIU PG UIF 3FE 3JWFS BU B QSFDJTF TQPU NFUSFT PO th +VMZ o UIF NFBTVSFT XFSF UBLFO EBJMZ 5IF TFDPOE EPDVNFOU JO 7JFUOBNFTF SFGFST

UP UIF EJòFSFOU IFJHIUT PG UIF EZLFT BOE UIVT to where they were situated (cf %JBHSBN 5IF TQFDJÜDJUJFT PG (*4 BMTP BMMPX VT UP NBQ EJòFSFOU ÜFMET UIF EPDVNFOUT BSF MJTUFE according to date (cf %JBHSBN

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 35 Georeferenced Documents: Add their Attributes to Have a Value of Time (1) Goal: Give an attribute "date" to georeferenced documents in order to represent documents by a specific date.

Source: Author’s construction.

Diagram 36 Georeferenced Documents: Add their Attributes to Have a Value of Time (2) All this spatial and temporal data will make it interactive GIS: example with interactive mapping. Goal: Incorporate dates to GIS. GIS will become dynamic and interactive. It will be “Geohistorical” Information System.

July 26th 1926 July 27th 1926 July 28th 1926 July 29th 1926 Contour lines Dykes

…

Buildings Lakes

6

Red River

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

The insertion of a timescale allows an JOUFSBDUJWF BQQMJDBUJPO PG *OUFSOFU XF DBO VTF *OUFSOFU UP OBWJHBUF PO UIF NBQT BOE PCTFSWF GPS FBDI EBUF BOE BDDPSEJOH UP UIF RVFSZ TZTUFNT UIF SFGFSFODFT PG UIF BSDIJWBM document used.

GPS FYBNQMF *U JT B EZOBNJD JOEFYBUJPO TJODF UIF EBUBCBTF DBO CF BEEFE UP WFSZ TJNQMZ BEEJOH PG JOGPSNBUJPO UP UIF NBQ OFX MBZFST PG JOGPSNBUJPO *U JT BO FYUSFNFMZ QPXFSGVM UPPM UIBU BMMPXT VT UP DPOTUSVDU EZOBNJD JOEFYFT from a collection of archival documents.

2.4.4. Representation of the Management of an Event

A “Web Mapping” manipulation is demonstrated by the trainer using the example of the interactive application of the 1926 swelling.

[Olivier Tessier]

[Alexis Drogoul]

*O 5POLJO XIJDI XBT B 'SFODI QSPUFDUPSBUF GSPN UIFSF XBT B EVBM 'SFODI BOE Vietnamese administration.

5IJT UFDIOJRVF BMMPXT B SFQSFTFOUBUJPO PG space and the adding of chronological information – the creation of a web-accessible JOEFY UIBU JT JOöOJUFMZ NPSF TJNQMF UIBO UIPTF DPOTVMUBCMF BU UIF /BUJPOBM $FOUSF PG "SDIJWFT

5IF QSPUFDUPSBUF JT EJWJEFE JOUP QSPWJODFT EJTUSJDUT BOE QSFGFDUVSFT DBOUPOT DPNNVOFT BOE WJMMBHFT 5IF 'SFODI QSFTFODF PóDJBMMZ ceased from a politico-administrative point of WJFX BU UIF MFWFM PG UIF QSPWJODF #FZPOE UIJT

Diagram 37 An Intuitive Introduction to Class Diagrams: The Hierarchical Organisation

1 1

1

2

2 2

2

2

1 2

Source: Author’s construction.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

MFWFM UIF BENJOJTUSBUJPO XBT 7JFUOBNFTF *O UIFPSZ UIF QSPUFDUPSBUF XBT B HVBSEJBOTIJQ The representative of the French colonial system was the RĂŠsident de France of the QSPWJODF PG #ĚƒD /JOI GPS FYBNQMF IJT Vietnamese counterpart was the Mandarin (PWFSOPS PG UIF QSPWJODF *O QSBDUJDF UIF 'SFODI BENJOJTUSBUJPO FYFSDJTFE SFBM de facto QPXFS BU B EJTUSJDU MFWFM FWFO UIPVHI UIF only French structures present at the district level were the gendarmerie or decentralised UFDIOJDBM VOJUT TVDI BT SBJMXBZ TUBUJPOT BOE UIF )JHIXBZT %FQBSUNFOU %JBHSBN POMZ represents the players in our study; there were FWJEFOUMZ PUIFS QMBZFST JO EJòFSFOU EPNBJOT Táť‘ng Tháť‹ Huyáť n Ă i *O UIF GSBNFXPSL PG PVS TUVEZ XIJDI BENJOJTUSBUJPO NBEF UIF ĂśOBM EFDJTJPO [Olivier Tessier] The French often made decisions that should have been made by the Vietnamese; the 7JFUOBNFTF QBSU IBE BO FYFDVUJWF SPMF UIBU transmitted an order and had it carried out.

Trần Xuân Duy 5IF TZTUFN T DPNQMFYJUZ MJNJUFE FNFSHFODZ reactions. Did the administration to a certain FYUFOU BEE UP UIF DBUBTUSPQIJD MFWFM PG UIF øPPEJOH [Alexis Drogoul] 5IJT RVFTUJPO JT HPJOH UP JOUFSFTU VT PWFS UIF OFYU UISFF EBZT 0OF PG UIF SPMFT PG TJNVMBUJPO modelling is to show how a system succeeds JO SFTQPOEJOH UP B UISFBU BOE JG UIJT DPOGPSNT to its theoretical organisation to cope with a disaster. [Nasser Gasmi] )PX DBO XF SFQSFTFOU UIF DPNQMFY relationships between this multitude of BDUPST cf %JBHSBN We are going to present four types PG SFMBUJPOTIJQ CZ XBZ PG BO FYBNQMF (cf ̓%JBHSBN

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Diagram 38 What is the Nature of Relationship between Two People?

Note: Résident Supérieur of Tonkin (RST), Résident de France in Bắc Ninh (RFBN) Source: Author’s construction.

Diagram 39 Hierarchical Relationship (1)

RST

Résident de France

Source: Author’s construction, Centre of Archives n° 1 of Hà Nội.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

'JSTUMZ XF DBO SFNBSL B EFTDFOEJOH IJFSBSDIJDBM SFMBUJPOTIJQ B IBSTI SFNJOEFS from the RĂŠsident SupĂŠrieur of Tonkin to the RĂŠsident de France BU #ĚƒD /JOI iYou should

have realised that your position as RÊsident did not allow you to send me a warning of this type. Neither on this matter, nor another. I regret having to remind you of this.�

Diagram 40 Hierarchical Relationship (2)

Note. Táť•ng Ä‘áť‘c: Provincial Governor of the Vietnamese administration. Source: Author’s construction, Centre of Archives n° 1 of HĂ Náť™i.

*O UVSO UIF RĂŠsident de France BU #ĚƒD /JOI may give instructions or orders to the .BOEBSJO (PWFSOPS PG UIF QSPWJODF PG Vietnamese administration. The RĂŠsident BOE UIF (PWFSOPS IBE JO UIFPSZ UIF TBNF

TUBUVT CVU BSDIJWBM TPVSDFT SFWFBM UIF real nature of the relationship between UIFTF UXP SFQSFTFOUBUJWFT PG UXP EJòFSFOU BVUIPSJUJFT̓UIBU XFSF VOFRVBM CZ OBUVSF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Diagram 41 Hierarchical Relationship (3)

Note: Tri huyᝇn Gia lâm: Gia lâm district head. Source: Author’s construction, Centre of Archives n° 1 of HĂ Náť™i.

*O UIF TBNF XBZ JG JU XBT OPSNBM UIBU UIF .BOEBSJO (PWFSOPS HJWF PSEFST UP UIF district head who was administratively BOE IJFSBSDIJDBMMZ IJT JOGFSJPS UIF RĂŠsident de France PG #ĚƒD /JOI TIPVME OPU IBWF JOUFSWFOFE PO B EJTUSJDU MFWFM XIJDI IF EJE IPXFWFS $POTFRVFOUMZ IF BTLFE UIF EJTUSJDU head directly to send him workers to build small dykes (cf ̓%JBHSBN

*O UIJT MBUUFS TDFOBSJP UIF EJTUSJDU IFBE BTLT UIF̓ OPUBCMFT PG (JB 2VBU UP HP UP UIF observation point of the dykes that passed through their village. 'SPN UIFTF EJòFSFOU SFBEJOHT XF DBO QBSUJBMMZ recreate the outline constructed by Olivier Tessier (cf ̓%JBHSBN

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 42 Hierarchical Relationship (4)

Note: Trợ Tá: Mandarin. Source: Author’s construction, Centre of Archives n° 1of Hà Nội.

Diagram 43 Recreate the Hierarchical Relationships between the Various Actors RST 1 2

3

3

Résident de France 1

1

2

1

2

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

[Olivier Tessier] *O UIFTF EPDVNFOUT UIFSF JT JOGPSNBUJPO from lower levels that is rarely present in the BSDIJWFT XF QMBDF PVSTFMWFT BU UIF MFWFM PG UIF DBOUPO PS UIF DPNNVOF #VU JO UIJT QBSUJDVMBS DBTF XF IBWF BU PVS EJTQPTBM B QPMJDF JORVFTU

Box

that was carried out at administrative levels in order to discover who might have been responsible. -FU VT SFUVSO GPS B NPNFOU UP UIF QPTTJCMF SFMBUJPOTIJQT CFUXFFO UIF EJòFSFOU BDUPST

29 Interactions Between Players

Deciders: uniquely the colonial administration at a central level (RST and technical services) and provincial level (RFBN), the Mandarin Governor of the province (Vietnamese administration) being de facto excluded. This level of “order giversâ€? is at the origin of 86% of dispatches and written traces conserved at the Centre of Archives n° 1 (telegrams, letters, notes). Transmitters of orders: (intermediate level playing a role of interface) according to a descending hierarchical system that uniquely concerned the colonised: at the provincial level, (the Mandarin Governor of the province intervened uniquely during the beginning of the crisis from the 24th to the 29th July) and at district, canton and communal levels. Those who carried out the work: the voluntary and/or involuntary workforce that concretely implemented the decisions taken and transmitted. Source: Author’s construction.

A priori UIF IJFSBSDIJDBM SFMBUJPOTIJQ between the settlers and the colonised QSPWJODF TIPVME OPU IBWF FYJTUFE CFDBVTF UIF regime was that of a protectorate. The reality XBT BHBJO RVJUF EJòFSFOU 5IF TZTUFN XBT PG UIF UPQ EPXO WBSJFUZ UIBU JT UP TBZ IJFSBSDIJTFE CFUXFFO UIF EFDJEFST UIF USBOTNJUUFST BOE those who carried out the work. The decisionNBLJOH QPXFS XBT FYDMVTJWFMZ JO UIF IBOET of the colonial apparatus. The Vietnamese QBSU EJE OPU NBLF BOZ NBKPS EFDJTJPO *U POMZ USBOTNJUUFE BOE DBSSJFE PVU PSEFST XIJDI was contrary to the theoretical scheme of the protectorate. An investigation was carried out. Only the responsibility and the supposed and committed errors at the level of the transmitters and those who carried out the orders were noted. At no point was the system RVFTUJPOFE "U OP QPJOU XBT UIF RVBMJUZ PG UIF decisions (relevance and rapidity) brought

JOUP RVFTUJPO 5IF DPMPOJBM BQQBSBUVT XBT iOBUVSBMMZ SJHIUw JO UIJT UPUBMMZ CJBTFE TZTUFN the problem did not stem from decisions but from the fact that they were badly transmitted and/or badly implemented. The system was BVUIPSJUBSJBO BOE DPVME OPU CF RVFTUJPOFE [Benoit Gaudou] Olivier Tessier has constructed a hierarchy of QMBZFST XIP JOUFSWFOFE JO UIF EJTBTUFS UIF TZTUFN XBT DMFBS BOE TUSVDUVSFE CVU VTFT B MBOHVBHF PG SFQSFTFOUBUJPO UIBU JT EJĂłDVMU UP HFOFSBMJTF *O DPNQVUFS TDJFODFT XF have similar graphic modelling languages TVDI BT UIF i6OJĂśFE .PEFMMJOH -BOHVBHFw 6.- XIJDI HJWFT VT UIF QPTTJCJMJUZ PG UIFO USBOTGPSNJOH EJBHSBNT JOUP NPEFMT *O 6.- we are going to take an interest in three types of diagrams.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 44 Focus on Three Kinds of Diagram Activity DiagramÂ

Class DiagramÂ

Sequence DiagramÂ

Source: Author’s construction.

-FU VT UBLF BO FYBNQMF

Diagram 45 The Hierarchical Organisation: Zoom on Township and Commune

Among these 11 actors: ­ How many kinds of actors can we identify? ­ What are the common characteristics of each element of a kind? Â

Among these 11 actors:  ­ 2 kinds: LA and Head of Township ­ Common characteristic:    * For each Tong Ly: name of the township    * For each LA: name of the communeÂ

Note: Táť•ng LĂ˝: Head of canton; LA: Local Authorities; Ä?Ă´ng DĆ°: village name. Source: Construction by Olivier Tessier and Benoit Gaudou.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

8F IBWF FYUSBDUFE B QBSU PG UIF EJBHSBN constructed by Olivier Tessier that incudes eleven players from archival documents.

5IF PCKFDUJWF JT UP FTUBCMJTI UIF TUSVDUVSF CFUXFFO UIFTF QMBZFST o UIF MPDBM BVUIPSJUJFT the canton heads.

Diagram 46 Class Diagram to Represent the Static Structure of a Model

LA  ông D Â

LA  Xuân QuanÂ

LA Kim QuanÂ

LA  Thu n T nÂ

What is a class? A class gathers under one generic word and one representation, a set of objects (or instances) with similar properties (attributes) and behaviours (operations). An instance (or an object) is a particular element of a class. It belongs to one and only one class. It is defined by a state (values for all attributes), a behaviour, an identifier.

Source: Author’s construction.

We create a group under the generic theme of “local authorities�. As well as the name of UIF DMBTT UIF UZQF PG QMBZFS BOE UIF BUUSJCVUFT UIBU BMM UIF iMPDBM BVUIPSJUZw BDUPST TIBSF XF may add a type of behaviour.

$FSUBJO QBSBNFUFST NBZ CF TQFDJĂśFE UIF actors may order the construction of small dykes; the agent may set out towards a destination.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Fichier J2 Nasser Olivier Benoit / slide 16 / Class Diagram to Represent the Static Structure of a Model On opère un regroupement sous le thème générique « autorités locales ». En plus du nom de la classe, du type de l’acteur et des attributs que tous les acteurs « autorité locale » partagent, nous pouvons ajoutons un comportement. Certains paramètres peuvent êre précisés : les acteurs peuvent ordonner de construire des diguettes, l’agent peut se diriger vers une destination, etc. Encadrer / Details on Operations

Box

Operations:

30 Details on Operations

Operations: ­ They express behaviors of elements.

- They express behaviours of elements - They are performed by instances (e.g.: build_small_dyke()) and can have an influence on objects (ex: build_small_dyke() will increase the height of a dyke) other objects (e.g.: build_small_dyke() will increase the height of a dyke) ­ Syntax: name [(parameters list)][:type of the returned value] - Syntax: name [(parameters list)][:type of the returned value] - Examples: build_small_dyke() ; move_toward(target: location) ­ Examples: build_small_dyke() ; move_toward(target: location)

­ They are performed by instances (ex: build_small_dyke()) and can have an influence of other

Source: Author’s construction.

Sur ce shéma (The Hierarchical Organization: Zoom on Township and Commune), on note également que les T ng L (les chefs de canton) ont des relations d’ordres avec les autorités locales.

0O %JBHSBN XF DBO BMTP SFNBSL UIBU UIF Tổng Lý (heads of canton) have command Encadré / Describe General Relationships between Classes: the Association relationships with the local authorities. An association describes a relationship between classes. Notation:

Box

31 Describe General Relationships between Classes:

­ Line linking classes in relation. the Association

12 classes. An association describes a relationship between Notation: Encadré / Describe General Relationships between Classes: the Association Encadré / Describe General Relationships between Classes: the Association - Line linking classes in relation. - The meaning of the association is expressed by a name on the link. direction is denoted by or . - The - Ends carry information about multiplicity and roles.

Example:

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

We may include other entities of the system such as dykes and rivers to the classes

of players identified on Olivier Tessier’s diagram.

Diagram 47 Describe General Relationships between Classes: the Association

Source: Author’s construction.

8F IBWF B IJFSBSDIJDBM SFMBUJPOTIJQ TVQFSJPST UP JOGFSJPST CFUXFFO UIF MPDBM BVUIPSJUJFT BOE UIF XPSLGPSDF GVSUIFSNPSF UIF MPDBM authorities are responsible for the system of dykes and the workforce when it works PO UIF EZLFT 5IFSF BMTP FYJTUT B SFMBUJPOTIJQ between the RÊsident de France or the .BOEBSJO (PWFSOPS PG UIF QSPWJODF BOE UIF observations concerning the river’s water level (cf %JBHSBN

*O PSEFS UP TQFDJGZ UIF TPDJBM TQBDF PG UIF BDUPST̓ BOE SFBM TQBDF XF DBO BEE UP certain players that we wish to situate a supplementary attribute that represents their position in space. We are then interested JO UIF TFRVFODF EJBHSBN UIBU SFQSFTFOUT the interactions between the actors and the activities’ diagram that represents the behaviour of a particular actor (cf %JBHSBN̓

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 48 Actors and Spatial Elements in Relation

Each actor is/can be spatially located: ­ New attribute: location District­related actors will move in their district: ­ New operation: move Toward (target: Point)

Source: Author’s construction.

Diagram 49 Spatialise Actors: Addition of Spatial Attributes and Operations to Actors Sequence diagram: to represent interactions between entities.

Activity diagram: to represent the behaviour of an entity.

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

-FU VT UBLF B DPODSFUF DBTF CZ SFUVSOJOH UP UIF JOGPSNBUJPO DPNNVOJDBUFE CZ 0MJWJFS 5FTTJFS

Diagram 50 How to Represent the Dynamics in a Model? Examples of interactions between actors  RST 73081Â

TDBNÂ >Â TPÂ &Â THÂ

Height of the Red River at Hanoi: 10.60 m. The TDBN request to conform to the dyke protection decree, in particular the rallying of  T ng L   and inhabitants.Â

RSTÂ 73081Â

THGL>TTaGÂ

Order to go to Gia Thuong dyke: small dykes in all low­level locations are not high enough.Â

RSTÂ 73081Â

TTaGL>LyGTÂ

The LyGT received  the order to immediately build a small 0.8 m  dyke, then the TTaGL went to another villageÂ

Summary:  ­ Given the water level in the Red River, the province Governor (TDBN) orders TP&TH to respect the dyke protection decree.  ­ THGL orders the TTAGL to go to the Gia Thuong and orders Ty Long to build higher small dykes.  ­ TTaGL orders LyGT to build higher small dykes.Â

Source: Author’s construction.

We can remark on the first line that the .BOEBSJO (PWFSOPS PG UIF QSPWJODF PSEFST the heads of canton to implement the decree PG EZLF QSPUFDUJPO TVCTFRVFOU UP UIF SJTF PG river waters; the head of canton transmits the PSEFS UP IJT BTTJTUBOU UP HP UP (JB 5IVPOH JO order to begin the raising of the dykes and the construction of small dykes in order to raise the global height of the works. The

order is transmitted. The chain of interactions between the actors is represented in this form (cf %JBHSBN What does not appear in the archival documents is the fact that once the person responsible has received the order to build UIF EZLFT IF JO UVSO HJWFT UIF PSEFS UP UIF workforce to begin the task (cf %JBHSBN

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Diagram 51 Representation with a Sequence Diagram

Source: Author’s construction.

Diagram 52 Sequence Diagram Elements Actors/Entities

Time

Messages sent / interaction

Entities lifeline

Source: Author’s construction.

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

-FU VT OPX SFUVSO UP UIF EJBHSBN SFQSFTFOUJOH UIF CFIBWJPVS PG BO BDUPS

Diagram 53 Formalisation of the Prefect Behavior using an Activity Diagram Activities can be described at various levels.Â

Source: Author’s construction.

The diagram is read from its initial to final state. When we observe the interactions of UIF .BOEBSJO (PWFSOPS PG UIF QSPWJODF XJUI BMM UIF IFBET PG EJTUSJDUT XF OPUJDF UIBU UIF MFWFM PG UIF SJWFS JT IJHI UIF PSEFS GPS UIF DPOTUSVDUJPO PG TNBMM EZLFT JT HJWFO *O UIF EJBHSBN UIF SIPNCVT SFQSFTFOUT B DIPJDF *G UIJT DPOEJUJPO JT WFSJĂśFE BOE JG UIF MFWFM PG XBUFS JT IJHIFS UIBO UIF UISFTIPME UIF BDUPS gives an order.

The principle is identical to the class diagram UIBU XF QSFTFOUFE JO UIF +5% %SPHPVM BOE (BVEPV These three types of diagram are adapted to the cross-cutting discussion and the participative construction of models.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

The training continues with the development of three principal sessions entitled: From Representation to the Model; The Hydrological Model in GAMA; Dynamic Reproduction of Decisions. For the first two sessions, we refer the reader to our publications linked to the 2012 JTD when a plenary session and a workshop were devoted to these questions (Drogoul and Gaudou, 2012; Drogoul et al., 2012). The particularly technical training of the last session, notably concerning dynamic representation cannot be included in the simple framework of this publication. In order to clarify its content, we invite readers to contact the trainers of the team constituted by Alexis Drogoul and also refer them to the different research programmes described in the biographies included at the end of this work.

The end of the week is devoted to an implementation of the different sessions presented during the first two and a half days. Five groups are constituted under the supervision of a trainer. The general objective of each project is to re-examine the principal stages already developed: study of historical context, extraction of information and mode of representation, and the establishment of new scenarios. The construction of models is punctuated by the presentation of each group of their state of progress on days 3 and 4. Trainees are reminded that the exercise of modelling is not a simple representation of the event: by adding and testing hypotheses, we wish to generate new information by simulation rather than reproduce the information available in the archival documents.

Exercise 1: Sheltering refugees from the 1926 flooding and evacuation procedures. Identify, situate and model the population affected by the flooding. Identify and represent the actors and evacuation procedures. Exercise 2: Modelling local players and their organisation. Identify and situate the villages and the work force. Identify and model the behaviour of new actors and their interaction in the system. Exercise 3: Localisation and visualisation of the flooding’s management dynamic. Exercise 4: Identification and localisation of the risks of flooding in the containment system. Identify and model the new behaviour of actors. Exercise 5: The economic vision of the crisis. Identify and locate the necessary resources for the construction of small dykes. Identify and model the actors involved in the supply of resources. Model behaviours according to constraints.

Reading Texts (www.tamdaoconf.com) DROGOUL, A., B. GAUDOU, A. GRIGNARD, P. TAILLANDIER, VÕ Đức Ân (2012), Approche pratique de la modélisation à base d’agents, in LAGRÉE S. (scientific editor), Collection: Conférences & Séminaires, n° 8, AFD-ÉFEO-Tri Thức, Hà Nội, July.

Archival Sources Direction d’État des Archives du Vietnam. Centre n° 1, Fonds des Archives Centrales de l’Indochine. Résidence Supérieure du Tonkin (RST) 37057, Crues et inondations dans les

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

provinces de Bac Giang, Bac Ninh, Ha Dong, Hai Duong – 1926, HĂ Náť™i. Direction d’État des Archives du Vietnam. Centre n° 1, Fonds des Archives Centrales de l’Indochine. RĂŠsidence SupĂŠrieure du Tonkin (RST) 37057 (1), Crues et inondations dans la ville de HĂ Náť™i -1926-1927, HĂ Náť™i. Direction d’État des Archives du Vietnam. Centre n° 1, Fonds des Archives Centrales de l’Indochine. RĂŠsidence SupĂŠrieure du Tonkin (RST) 73081, Rupture de digues de Bac Ninh – 1926, HĂ Náť™i.

Bibliography #&35*/ + SĂŠmiologie graphique, les diagrammes, les rĂŠseaux, les cartes &EJUJPO EF M ²DPMF EFT IBVUFT Ă?UVEFT FO TDJFODFT TPDJBMFT Q $0.#& $ j -B WJMMF FOEPSNJF -F SJTRVF E JOPOEBUJPO Ă‹ -ZPO "QQSPDIF HĂ?PIJTUPSJRVF FU TZTUĂ?NJRVF EV SJTRVF EF DSVF FO NJMJFV VSCBJO FU QĂ?SJ VSCBJO x %PDUPSBM 5IFTJT JO (FPHSBQIZ -BOE 6TF 1MBOOJOH BOE 6SCBO 1MBOOJOH 6OJWFSTJUZ -VJNĂ’SF -ZPO Q %30(06- " BOE # ("6%06 j̓.Ă?UIPEFT JOGPSNBUJRVFT EF NPEĂ?MJTBUJPO Ă‹ CBTF E BHFOUT x JO -"(3&& 4 TDJFOUJĂśD FEJUPS $PMMFDUJPO ConfĂŠrences et SĂŠminaires OÂĄ "'% ²'&0 %30(06- " BOE # ("6%06 " (3*(/"3% 1 ̓ 5"*--"/%*&3 BOE % " 70 j̓ "QQSPDIF QSBUJRVF EF MB NPEĂ?MJTBUJPO Ă‹ CBTF E BHFOUT̓ x JO -"(3&& 4 TDJFOUJĂśD FEJUPS $PMMFDUJPO ConfĂŠrences et SĂŠminaires OÂĄ "'% ²'&0 ("65)*&3 + j %JHVFT EV 5POLJO x *NQSJNFSJF E &YUSĂ?NF 0SJFOU )BOPJ Q

(06306 1 Les paysans du delta tonkinois 1VCMJDBUJPO EF M ²DPMF GSBOĂŽBJTF E &YUSĂ?NF 0SJFOU -FT ²EJUJPOT E BSU FU E IJTUPJSF 1BSJT 5"*--"/%*&3 1 % " 70 & ".063069 BOE " %30(06- ("." i" 4JNVMBUJPO 1MBUGPSN UIBU *OUFHSBUFT (FPHSBQIJDBM *OGPSNBUJPO %BUB "HFOU #BTFE .PEFMJOH BOE .VMUJ 4DBMF $POUSPMi JO i1SJODJQMFT BOE 1SBDUJDBM PG .VMUJ "HFOU 4ZTUFNTi 4QSJOHFS QQ -FDUVSF /PUFT JO Artificial Intelligence. 5&44*&3 0 i)ZESPMPHJDBM %FWFMPQNFOU PG UIF 3FE 3JWFS %FMUB " )JTUPSJDBM 1FSTQFDUJWF PG UIF 3PMF PG UIF *NQFSJBM UIFO $PMPOJBM 4UBUF 'SPN UIF th $FOUVSZ UP UIF 'JSTU )BMG PG UIF th $FOUVSZi JO -"(3&& 4 TDJFOUJĂśD FEJUPS DPMMFDUJPO ConfĂŠrences & SĂŠminaires OÂĄ "'% ²'&0 5SJ̓ 5IĚ D )Ă‹ /Ě˜J +VMZ BMTP BWBJMBCMF JO French and Vietnamese on the website www.tamdaoconf.com). 53&6*- + 1 " %30(06- BOE + % ;6$,&3 ModĂŠlisation et simulation Ă base d’agents : exemples commentĂŠs, outils informatiques et questions thĂŠoriques %VOPE 1BSJT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

List of Trainees Surname and first name Dương Hồng Huệ Lê Văn Hà Mai Minh Nhật Nguyễn Hữu Kiệt Nguyễn Thị Bảo Hà Nguyễn Thị Hoàng Anh Nguyễn Thị Thu Thủy Phạm Thị Diễm Phương Phạm Thị Thanh Nga

Phan Văn Trọng

Quách Đồng Thắng Tống Thị Huyền Ái Trần Duy Minh Trần Nguyễn Minh Thư Trần Xuân Duy

Establishment

Domain/Discipline

Research theme

Modelling of the University of Natural Environment environment, economics, Resources and the management, climate vulnerable populations Environment change faced with climate change Institute of Social Geography, Impacts of climate change, Sciences environment risk management Socio-economic and cultural evolution of ethnic University of Đà Lạt Cultural anthropology groups in the Lâm Đồng province University of Land use dynamics and Land use planning Cần Thơ management Institute of Social Culture, society Sustainable development Sciences Vietnam National Geography Dynamics of the Red River Satellite Center Economic and University of Anthropology cultural changes Thủ Dầu Một (Cham community) University of Natural Management of the Modelling of the Resources and the environment environment, societies Environment Application of Application of teledetection in Vietnam National teledetection in the the assessment Satellite Center assessment of flooding and management compensation of disasters International Centre of Research into Modelling and GIS Modelling Global Changes Centre of GIS Application GIS and disaster Department of GIS management sciences and technology International Centre Cartography, GIS, Land, rural economy and of Research into geography environment Global Changes University of Risk assessment and Social and Human Environment management Sciences University of Recommendation and Data mining Cần Thơ simulation systems École Normale GIS, urbanisation Spatial analysis Supérieure

Email duong2111@yahoo. com levanhakhxh@gmail. com nhatmm@dlu.edu.vn nhkiet@ctu.edu.vn tybao510@yahoo. com nthanh@vnsc.org.vn thuthuy0072@ yahoo.com phuongpham1910@ yahoo.com

pttnga@vnsc.org.vn

phantrong228@ gmail.com quachdongthang@ yahoo.com ai.tonghuyen@gmail. com tdminh@hcmussh. edu.vn tnmthu@ctu.edu.vn duylife@gmail.com

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

Surname and first name Trương Hoàng Trương

Establishment

Domain/Discipline

University of Thủ Dầu Một

Sociology

Trương Quang Đạt

Southern Institute of Social Sciences

Socio-economy

Võ Dao Chi

Southern Institute of Social Sciences

Võ Thị Phương Linh

University of Cần Thơ

Centre of Research Vũ Ngọc Thành into Urban Planning and Development

Environment, sustainable development Management of resources and the environment Urban history, urbanisation

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Research theme

Email

History, urbanisation and development Risks and agricultural economy (Long An province) Risk assessment and management of vulnerable populations Mathematical models applied to water resource management Urban space development process in Saigon (1859-1945)

truonghoangtruong@gmail.com datquangtruong@ yahoo.com.vn vodaochi@hotmail. com vtplinh@ctu.edu.vn vungocthanh2112@ gmail.com

#JPHSBQIJFT of Speakers

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

'MPSFOU #²%²$"33"54 Email: G CFEFDBSSBUT!DFSJTF NJDSPĂśOBODF PSH TITLES AND DIPLOMAS "DDSFEJUBUJPO GPS UIF QPTU PG VOJWFSTJUZ MFDUVSFS JO &DPOPNJD 4DJFODFT Conseil National des UniversitĂŠs TFDUJPO 1I % JO 1PMJUJDBM 4DJFODFT *OUFSOBUJPOBM 1PMJUJDBM &DPOPNZ + ̓-BSPDIF 1PMJUJDBM 4DJFOUJTU %JS BXBSEFE UIF highest honour and the unanimous DPOHSBUVMBUJPOT PG UIF KVSZ 6OJWFSTJUZ 1BSJT̓* 1BOUIĂ?PO 4PSCPOOF ÂŤÂ La microfinance entre utilitĂŠ sociale et performances financières. Le rĂ´le des normes dans la gouvernance d’un secteur mondialisĂŠÂ Âť. PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Programme supervisor for the ComitĂŠ d’Êchanges de rĂŠflexion et d’information sur les systèmes d’Êpargne-crĂŠdit $&3*4& QSPHSBNNF B SFTFBSDI BDUJPO OFUXPSL GPVOEFE JO CZ $*%3 (3&5 BOE *3". BT XFMM BT CZ SFTFBSDIFST GSPN UIF $*3"% BOE *3$ SUMMARY OF RESEARCH .Z QBSUJDJQBUJPO JO UIF +5% JT UIF continuation of a reflection initiated by $&3*4& %*"- BOE 36.& *3% $*3"% *3$ UP conceive an innovative methodology for the study of the impact of development programmes. This approach aims to identify issues relevant to operational needs and JOUFSWFOUJPO DPOUFYUT UP JEFOUJGZ BE IPD methods based upon a combination of TDBMFT PG BOBMZTJT BOE RVBOUJUBUJWF BOE RVBMJUBUJWF UPPMT BT XFMM BT GBWPVSJOH UIF appropriation of results by being careful

to associate the players at each stage of the process. While acknowledging the VTFGVMOFTT PG FYQFSJNFOUBUJPO JU TIPXT the limits of evaluations that are based FYDMVTJWFMZ PO SBOEPN BTTJHONFOU This method is based upon three NFUIPEPMPHJDBM QJMMBST t 1MBDJOH SFTFBSDI JO UIF TFSWJDF PG BDUJPO DP DPOTUSVDUJPO PG SFTFBSDI RVFTUJPOT BOE evaluation systems; t *OOPWBUJOH UP GBDJMJUBUF RVBOUJUBUJWF QSPEVDUJPO EFWFMPQ UIF DSPTT SFGFSFODJOH NFUIPET PG QSF FYJTUJOH BOE PQFSBUJPOBM national databases (information systems of NJDSPÜOBODF JOTUJUVUJPOT IFBMUI TFSWJDFT etc.); t 3FJOGPSDJOH MJOLT XJUI UIF RVBMJUBUJWF UIJT articulation is spoken about in an almost ritualistic way but is rarely implemented. An FòPSU UP CF NPSF BDDVSBUF PO UIF RVBMJUBUJWF level in order to define methodological PQFSBUJPOT BOE UIFO EPDVNFOU BOE TZTUFNBUJTF UIFN XJMM OPUBCMZ GBDJMJUBUF their combination with statistical and econometrical tools. *O BEEJUJPO UIJT SFTFBSDI JT CVJMU BSPVOE critical analysis of the political economy of impact assessments in the development field.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

4U�QIBOF $"35*&3 Email: TDBSUJFS!VKG HSFOPCMF GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 1I % JO 4PDJPMPHZ 6OJWFSTJUZ 1BSJT 9 /BOUFSSSF Chronique d’un dÊluge annoncÊ, crise de la solidaritÊ face aux risques naturels (2002, Grasset) PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING 3FTFBSDIFS BU $/34 -BCPSBUPSZ 1"$5& (SFOPCMF SUMMARY OF RESEARCH My research analyses the organisation of populations faced with natural SJTLT #Z ESBXJOH PO JOUFSEJTDJQMJOBSZ PCTFSWBUJPOT HFPHSBQIZ BHSPOPNZ IZESPMPHZ HFPQIZTJDT BOE QIZTJDBM JOUFS EFQFOEFODJFT XF BJN UP VOEFSTUBOE DPMMFDUJWF SVMFT PG TFDVSJUZ UIFJS DPOTUSBJOUT their bonds and the possible normative developments to protect populations. My systemic analysis cross-references situation EPDVNFOUBUJPO QIZTJDBM NFBTVSFT NBQT TUBUJTUJDT SFHVMBUJPOT PCTFSWBUJPO PG CFIBWJPVST JOUFSWJFXT XJUI QMBZFST BOE surveys by sample groups.

PG TFDVSJUZ OPSNT *O TJUVBUJPOT PG HSFBU VODFSUBJOUZ DPOøJDUT PG JOUFSFTU BOE UIF BEIFTJPO UP B DPNNPO QSPKFDU KVTUJGZ acceptable sacrifices to attain vital collective security. .Z ÜFME PG SFTFBSDI JODMVEFT SVSBM SJTLT DBTFT PG FSPTJWF SVOPò øPPEJOH BOE XBUFS QPMMVUJPO /PSNBOEZ BOE VSCBO risks concerning seismic vulnerability in UIF "MQT JO UIF 8FTU *OEJFT BOE BMPOH UIF .FEJUFSSBOFBO DPBTU 'SBODF *UBMZ 4XJU[FSMBOE "MHFSJB -FCBOPO BOE 5VSLFZ "T XFMM BT UIF DMPTF DPMMBCPSBUJPO XJUI */3" *345&" GPSNFSMZ $&."(3&' BOE *3% * BMTP TVQFSWJTF VOJWFSTJUZ XPSL NBTUFST UIFTFT BOE * UFBDI JO (FPHSBQIZ $JWJM &OHJOFFSJOH Agronomy and Political Sciences faculties.

Collective security in the face of natural risks necessitates the understanding of vulnerability factors through a territorial (regulation of common spaces) and sectoral (administration of activities) BQQSPBDI * FYBNJOF IPX UIF EJòFSFOU TDBMFT PG DPMMFDUJWF QSFWFOUJPO JOEJWJEVBM DPOUSBDUVBM QSPGFTTJPOBM DPNNVOJUZ NVOJDJQBM TUBUF JOUFSOBUJPOBM BSF MJOLFE to signal the coherences or divergences

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

"YFM %&.&/&5 LOPXO * EFUFSNJOFE TFWFSBM SFTFBSDI BYFT that evaluate the relevance of the most GSFRVFOUMZ SFDPNNFOEFE QPMJDJFT

Email: BYFM EFNFOFU!FOTBF GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS (SBEVBUF PG UIF École Normale SupĂŠrieure 'JSTU QMBDF JO JO &DPOPNZ BOE Management AgrĂŠgation 0QUJPO # (SBEVBUF PG UIF &/4"& École Nationale de la Statistique et de l’Administration Économique); (SBEVBUF PG UIF École d’Économie 1BSJT .BTUFS T i1VCMJD 1PMJDJFT BOE Developmentâ€?. PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING * IBWF CFFO B 1I % TUVEFOU BU UIF %*"- MBCPSBUPSZ NJYFE VOJU *3% %BVQIJOF VOEFS UIF HVJEBODF PG .JSFJMMF 3B[BĂśOESBLPUP BOE 'SBOĂŽPJT 3PVCBVE *3% %*"- TJODF 4FQUFNCFS BGUFS B ZFBS JO UIF QPTU PG SFTFBSDI BTTJTUBOU JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J GPS UIF *3% 0(4 QSPKFDU JO * IBWF TJODF CFFO XPSLJOH JO )Ě• $IĂ“ .JOI $JUZ JO DPMMBCPSBUJPO XJUI MPDBM SFTFBSDIFST BT XFMM BT UIF OFX *3% UFBN CBTFE JO )Ă‹Íƒ/Ě˜J SUMMARY OF RESEARCH My approach consists in combining the TVCKFDUT UIBU IBWF CFFO BU UIF IFBSU PG USBJOJOH 2VBOUJUBUJWF &DPOPNZ Management and Statistics) and my research is oriented towards decision TVQQPSU GPS QVCMJD QPMJDZ NBLFST #BTFE on the observation that the informal economy is a large and persistent TFHNFOU PG EFWFMPQJOH FDPOPNJFT BOE that this phenomenon remains little

Encourage Formalisation The informal sector is often considered as a phenomenon that will eventually disappear through a more or less rapid QSPDFTT PG GPSNBMJTBUJPO BOE UIBU QPMJDJFT aiming to encourage this process are those most often mentioned by international PSHBOJTBUJPOT )PXFWFS MJUUMF JT LOPXO BCPVU UIF JOT BOE PVUT BT NVDI PO B HMPCBM level as for enterprises and individuals. 5IF ĂśSTU BYJT PG SFTFBSDI DPOTJTUT JO determining which type of informal FOUFSQSJTF XJTI UP CFDPNF GPSNBM BOE XIBU XJMM CF UIF DPOTFRVFODFT PO UIFJS performances and working conditions. Develop Social Protection 5IF TFDPOE BYJT EFBMT XJUI UIF QSPCMFN of the absence of protection for informal XPSLFST 5IF DBTF PG 7JĚ?U /BN JT QBSUJDVMBSMZ interesting from this point of view as systems of social protection and health JOTVSBODF XFSF JNQMFNFOUFE JO BOE SFTQFDUJWFMZ XJUI UIF BJN PG BUUBJOJOH VOJWFSTBM DPWFS JO XIJDI QSPWJEFT B VOJRVF PQQPSUVOJUZ UP FWBMVBUF UIF relevance of such systems. The study of the behaviour of informal workers concerning social protection can provide deciders with vital information. Favour Professional Training Enterprises operating in the informal sector BSF PO BWFSBHF MFTT FĂłDJFOU UIBO UIPTF JO UIF GPSNBM TFDUPS BOE UIFJS XPSLFST IBWF

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

MFTT IVNBO DBQJUBM *U JT PGUFO BSHVFE UIBU training policies (“accounting literacyâ€?) may DPOUSJCVUF UP UIFJS FĂłDJFODZ 5IF UIJSE BYJT BJNT UP EJTDVTT UIF SFMFWBODF of these interventions by studying in detail the management methods of informal enterprises.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

"MFYJT %30(06Email: BMFYJT ESPHPVM!JSE GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS "DDSFEJUBUJPO UP TVQFSWJTF SFTFBSDI XPSL $PNQVUFS 4DJFODFT 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 1BSJT 1I % UIFTJT JO $PNQVUFS 4DJFODFT 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 1BSJT PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING 3FTFBSDI %JSFDUPS TJODF %FDFNCFS BU *3% "TTPDJBUF 3FTFBSDIFS TJODF BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG $˿O 5Iˌ 7J̏U /BN 1SPGFTTPS PG $PNQVUFS 4DJFODF BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 1BSJT -*1 -BCPSBUPSZ $PNQVUFS 4DJFODF -FDUVSFS BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 1BSJT -"'03*" -*1 laboratories. SUMMARY OF RESEARCH My general research topic concerns the conception of tools of artificial intelligence to help with the modelling and simulation PG DPNQMFY TZTUFNT XJUI B HSFBU EFTJSF UP GBDJMJUBUF JOUFSEJTDJQMJOBSZ XPSL BOE FYUSBDU multi-domain cross-cutting concepts. On UIFTF HSPVOET * XBT BMSFBEZ QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO JO UIF EFöOJUJPO PG DFSUBJO CBTJD DPODFQUT PG iBHFOU CBTFE NPEFMMJOHw and at the same time working in parallel on numerous thematic applications (in FUIOPMPHZ IZESPMPHZ HFPHSBQIZ SPBE USBóD UP NFOUJPO CVU B GFX 'SPN BU the crossroads of the domains of computer TDJFODF FYQFSJNFOUBM FDPOPNZ BOE QBSUJDJQBUJWF DPODFQUJPO * XPSLFE NPSF specifically on participative simulation

BOE NPEFMMJOH NFUIPET XIJDI BMMPX VT to involve social players in the conception of models that showed themselves to be particularly adapted to the management of conflicts concerning the users of shared resources; they have been successfully BQQMJFE JO UIF öFME JO #IVUBO 7J̏U /BN 5IBJMBOE BOE .FYJDP *O * CFDBNF UIF designer and one of the principal architects of the modelling and simulation platform ("." IUUQ HBNB QMBUGPSN HPPHMFDPEF DPN XIJDI UP SFDBQJUVMBUF ZFBST PG SFTFBSDI JO UIF EPNBJO BJNT UP QVU BU UIF disposition of non-computer scientists DPODFQUJPO UPPMT GPS TQBUJBMMZ FYQMJDJU NVMUJ TDBMF BOE NVMUJ GPSNBMJTN NPEFMT BT XFMM BT BMMPX BO iJOUFMMJHFOUw FYQMPJUBUJPO CZ simulation and optimisation) of the space PG UIFJS QBSBNFUFST *O QBSBMMFM UIF UIFNBUJD QSPKFDUT JO XIJDI * IBWF CFFO QBSUJDJQBUJOH GPS NPSF UIBO TJY ZFBST OPX öSTU JO )Ë /̘J UIFO BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG $˿O 5Iˌ JOWPMWF decision support in the policy of fighting against environmental catastrophes (the SJTF BOE TBMJOBUJPO PG .FLPOH XBUFST CJPMPHJDBM JOWBTJPOT BWJBO øV FQJEFNJPMPHZ urban disasters).

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

3BQIBÑM %6#0; Email: SBQIBFM EVCP[!DJSBE GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 1I % JO $PNQVUFS 4DJFODFT "QQMJFE $PNQMFY .PEFMMJOH 4ZTUFNT UniversitÊ du Littoral Côte d’Opale $BMBJT 'SBODF PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING * BN B SFTFBSDIFS BU UIF Centre International de Recherche Agronomique pour le DÊveloppement $*3"% JO UIF SFTFBSDI VOJU "OJNBM FU (FTUJPO *OU�HS�F EFT 3JTRVFT "(*34 * BN DVSSFOUMZ PO BTTJHONFOU UP UIF "TJBO *OTUJUVUF PG 5FDIOPMPHZ "*5 #BOHLPL 5IBJMBOE BT B UFBDIFS SFTFBSDIFS in Computer Sciences.

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH My research topic is part of the general theme of the representation of dynamic systems with computer support with the BJN PG VOEFSTUBOEJOH QSFEJDUJOH BOE decision-making. * BN NPSF QBSUJDVMBSMZ JOUFSFTUFE JO JOUFHSBUJPO UFDIOJRVFT PG IFUFSPHFOFPVT knowledge within a same model. This integration allows us to take into account EJòFSFOU QPJOUT PG WJFX JO B TBNF NPEFM and thus increase descriptive capacities. This topic implies research that ranges from mathematical formalisation to QBSUJDJQBUPSZ UFDIOJRVFT XIFSF UIF QMBZFST in a considered system are invited to share UIFJS LOPXMFEHF CZ VTJOH NPEFMMJOH *̓BN BMTP JOUFSFTUFE JO BOBMZTJT UFDIOJRVFT of social and commercial networks for the improvement of the monitoring and control in animal epidemiology. My SFTFBSDI JT UBSHFUFE BOE JT UIVT BMXBZT CBTFE VQPO DPODSFUF FYBNQMFT UIBU XJMM FOSJDI UIFPSFUJDBM RVFTUJPOJOH

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

+FBO 1IJMJQQF '0/5&/&--& Email: KFBO QIJMJQQF GPOUFOFMMF!BHSP CPSEFBVY GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 1PTU HSBEVBUF EPDUPSBUF JO agronomy under the guidance of 1 ̓ .BUIJFV 4PDJPMPHJTU BOE 1 %FGPVSOFZ EJSFDUPS "HSPOPNJTU $BUIPMJD 6OJWFSTJUZ PG -PVWBJO MB /FVWF “Agrarian dynamics, irrigation and institutions in the Red River Delta (Viᝇt Nam): a multi-scale analysis of the agricultural management of waterâ€?. PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING 1SPGFTTPS EFMFHBUFE UP JOUFSOBUJPOBM relations.

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH My professional career has been centred on SVSBM EFWFMPQNFOU JTTVFT NBOBHFNFOU PG water resources and interactions between UFDIOJRVFT BOE TPDJFUJFT * ĂśSTU XPSLFE GPS ̓ ZFBST BU (3&5 B 'SFODI /(0 GPS JOUFSOBUJPOBM TPMJEBSJUZ TJY PG UIFTF ZFBST XFSF TQFOU BT BO FYQBUSJBUF JO 7JĚ?U /BN BOE * BMTP DBSSJFE PVU NBOZ NJTTJPOT JO 4PVUIFBTU "TJB * OPUBCMZ UPPL PO UIF EVUJFT of Operations Director for the last five years. My activities combined research work focused on the planning and development PG UIF SJDF HSPXJOH EFMUBT BOE QMBJOT PO NBLJOH FYQFSU BQQSBJTBMT BOE PO EFWFMPQNFOU QSPKFDUT UIBU QSJODJQBMMZ concerned agricultural water management and support to family agriculture. The SFTFBSDI XPSL * DBSSJFE PVU DVMNJOBUFE JO XJUI NZ EFGFODF PG NZ 1I % UIFTJT BU UIF $BUIPMJD 6OJWFSTJUZ PG -PVWBJO -B /FVWF XIJDI DPODFSOFE BO BOBMZTJT PG the development of agricultural water NBOBHFNFOU JO UIF 3FE 3JWFS %FMUB *O * KPJOFE UIF École Nationale SupĂŠrieure des Sciences Agronomiques de BordeauxAquitaine, Bordeaux Sciences Agro BT B lecturer and delegate for international SFMBUJPOT * BN BMTP SFTQPOTJCMF GPS B UFBDIJOH module about Southeast Asia at the Institut des Sciences Politiques JO̓#PSEFBVY

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

/BTTFS ("4.* Email: OBTTFS HBTNJ!HNBJM DPN

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS

* BN B #BDIFMPS T HSBEVBUF JO (FPHSBQIZ PQUJPO iUPPMT NFUIPET BOE FOWJSPONFOUBM practices� and “water resources management�. My training also includes UIF BDRVJTJUJPO PG HFPHSBQIJD UPPMT BOE NFUIPET (FPNBUJDT 4UBUJTUJDT 3FNPUF 4FOTJOH DSFBUJPO PG *OUFSOFU TJUFT BOE (*4

nd ZFBS PG UIF .BTUFS T i(FPHSBQIJDBM *OGPSNBUJPO 1SPHSBNNJOH GPS 1MBOOJOH BOE Development�

My fields of interest are the conservation of UIF FOWJSPONFOU UIF TUVEZ PG TPJMT XBUFS resource management and urban planning.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

#FOPJU ("6%06 Email: CFOPJU HBVEPV!VU DBQJUPMF GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS %PDUPSBUF UIFTJT JO BSUJĂśDJBM JOUFMMJHFODF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 5PVMPVTF PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING *O BGUFS DPNQMFUJOH UXP QPTU doctorate years at the Institut de la francophonie pour l’informatique *'* JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J * UPPL VQ B QPTU BT MFDUVSFS JO UIF computer science faculty at the University PG 5PVMPVTF Capitole. * BN DBSSZJOH PVU NZ SFTFBSDI XJUIJO UIF Institut de recherche en informatique de Toulouse *3*5 JO UIF “Systèmes multi-agents coopĂŠratifsâ€? (SMAC) team. SUMMARY OF RESEARCH (FOFSBMMZ TQFBLJOH NZ SFTFBSDI XPSL concerns the formal or non-formal NPEFMMJOH PG EJòFSFOU OPUJPOT PDDVSSJOH in human cognition and decision-making (particularly confidence and emotions) and the integration of these models within multi-agent simulations. This research is currently part of two SFTFBSDI QSPKFDUT UIF ."&-*" QSPKFDU .VMUJ "HFOU GPS &OWJSPONFOUBM /PSNT *NQBDU "TTFTTNFOU TVQQPSUFE CZ 353" 45"& 5IF ."&-*" QSPKFDU DPOTJTUT JO NPEFMMJOH UIF TPDJP environmental impacts of the governance and management norms of renewable natural resources and the environment. *U BJNT BU EFWFMPQJOH B NPEFMMJOH BOE

simulation platform of the direct/indirect BOE FYQFDUFE VOFYQFDUFE JNQBDUT PG norms on a territory whose resources are CPUI TVCKFDU UP DPODVSSFOU FYQMPJUBUJPO BOE dependent on physical-biogeochemical variations. The preferred domain of application is water management in the "EPVS (BSPOOF CBTJO UIF "/3 &NP5&4 QSPKFDU &NPUJPOT JO 4PDJBM *OUFSBDUJPO UIFPSZ FYQFSJFODFT MPHJDBM and computerised studies). The aim of the &NP5&4 QSPKFDU JT UP TUVEZ UIF TP DBMMFE TUSBUFHJD FNPUJPOT TVDI BT HVJMU SFNPSTF FOWZ BOHFS BOE NPSBM TBUJTGBDUJPO XIJDI NBZ BSJTF JO B TUSBUFHJD JOUFSBDUJPO DPOUFYU UIBU JT UP TBZ XIFO UIF VUJMJUZ PG BO BHFOU T choice also depends on what other agents are going to decide to do) under the triple QPJOU PG WJFX PG QTZDIPMPHJDBM UIFPSJFT logical formalisation and simulation. The aim is to integrate strategic emotions into UIF CFIBWJPVS PG BHFOUT PO UIF 4PD -BC (simulation platform of organisations based PO UIF GPSNBMJTBUJPO PG $ 4JCFSUJO #MBOD and P. Roggero of Sociologie de l’Action Organisee) platform. * BN BMTP JOWPMWFE JO TFWFSBM PUIFS thematic networks supported by the /BUJPOBM /FUXPSL PG $PNQMFY 4ZTUFNT XIPTF OFUXPSLT BSF 4JN5PPMT /FUXPSL MAPS (Multi-Agent Modelling Applied UP 4QBUJBMJTFE 1IFOPNFOB BOE .&5*44& (Methods and Theories for an Engineering PG 4PDJP &OWJSPONFOUBM 4ZTUFNT 'JOBMMZ *̓ BN QBSUJDJQBUJOH JO UIF EFWFMPQNFOU PG UIF ("." QMBUGPSN GPS NVMUJ BHFOU modelling and simulation.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

"SOBVE (3*(/"3% Email: BHSJHOBSE!HNBJM DPN

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS

'PS UXP ZFBST * XPSLFE XJUIJO UIF 3IĂ™OF "MQJOT *OTUJUVUF PG $PNQMFY 4ZTUFNT BT B SFTFBSDI FOHJOFFS BU &/4 -ZPO *̓ QBSUJDJQBUFE JO UIF EFWFMPQNFOU PG B modelling and simulation platform and more particularly in the visualisation and HSBQIJD FEJUJPO PG DPNQMFY TZTUFNT 5IJT platform was used on an epidemiological NPEFM XJUIJO B &VSPQFBO '1 %ZOBOFUT QSPKFDU 8F TUVEJFE UIF EZOBNJD PG NVMUJ scale networks by concentrating on the propagation of a virus on a human scale (i.e. within a city) then on an urban scale (i.e ̓CFUXFFO EJòFSFOU DJUJFT

%JQMPNB JO FMFDUSPOJD FOHJOFFSJOH UFMFDPNNVOJDBUJPO BOE DPNQVUFS TDJFODF &4$1& -ZPO École SupÊrieure de Chimie Physique Electronique). 1SFQBSBUPSZ DMBTTFT UP FOUFS FOHJOFFSJOH TDIPPM $1& -ZPO "EWBODFE and Specialised Mathematics (Maths SupMaths SpÊ).

* BN DVSSFOUMZ JO UIF ĂśSTU ZFBS PG NZ doctorate in an international doctorate programme organised by the University 1BSJT JO UIF 6..*4$0 MBCPSBUPSZ 5IJT UIFTJT JT EJSFDUFE CZ "MFYJT %SPVHPVM BOE JT JO DP TVQFSWJTJPO XJUI 7JĚ?U /BN 5IF UIFTJT aims to study and produce new visualisation tools that will allow the representation and interpretation of a multi-agent system. These new tools are being developed UIBOLT UP SFBM EBUB BDRVJSFE CZ EJòFSFOU UFBNT BUUBDIFE UP *3%

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

"MBJO )&/3: Email: IFOSZB!BGE GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS (SBEVBUF PG UIF &DPMF 1PMZUFDIOJRVF $JWJM &OHJOFFS PG 1POUT FU $IBVTTĂ?FT PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING %JSFDUPS PG 4UVEZ BOE 3FTFBSDI "HFODF 'SBOĂŽBJTF EF %Ă?WFMPQQFNFOU "'% 1BSJT Associate Researcher of Management and 4PDJFUZ $/34 SUMMARY OF RESEARCH 'PS ĂśWF ZFBST GSPN UIF ĂśSTU – operational – phase of my career was devoted to the improvement of basic services in Sub-Saharan Africa (access to drinking water and electricity). Faced with the problem of the lack of impact of the QSPKFDUT JNQMFNFOUFE CZ EPOPST SFTFBSDI XPSL XBT MBVODIFE JO UP ĂśOE B MJOL between poor management performance and hypotheses about the sociology of organisations. 4JODF UIFO NZ SFTFBSDI IBT CFFO DBSSJFE PVU within the framework of the Management BOE 4PDJFUZ 5FBN $/34 EJS 1 E *SJCBSOF 5IF IZQPUIFTJT o QPQVMBS JO o PG B MJOL between “cultural valuesâ€? and behaviours XBT RVFTUJPOFE 3FTFBSDI TIPXFE UIBU QPPS management was not linked to “culturally inappropriateâ€? behaviour – of which the determinism cannot be accepted – but to the dissonance between management tools originating from the social universe PG i/PSUIFSO DPVOUSJFTw BOE UIF DPODFQUJPO

that those involved had of life in society. A publication about African tontines in ÂŤÂ Tontines et banques au Cameroun ) UISFX MJHIU VQPO UIF FYJTUFODF JO BO "GSJDBO DPOUFYU PG NBOBHFNFOU TZTUFNT DBQBCMF PG JOTQJSJOH DPOĂśEFODF " TIPSU UJNF BGUFS we were able to make a connection with written procedures applied in the big local public enterprises. 'SPN UP PVS XPSL BMMPXFE VT to enrich management case studies in "GSJDBO DPOUFYUT BOE TIPX UIBU CFZPOE UIFJS EJWFSTJUZ NBOBHFNFOU QFSGPSNBODFT depended on coherence with the way in which those involved gave meaning to XPSL TJUVBUJPOT 5IF TUVEJFT XFSF FYUFOEFE UP EJWFSTF DPVOUSJFT .BVSJUBOJB $Ă™UF E *WPJSF (BCPO .PSPDDP -FCBOPO FUD BOE UP EJWFSTF NBOBHFNFOU DPOUFYUT 4.&T DSFBUJPO PG QSPKFDUT QSJWBUF enterprises etc.). "U UIF TBNF UJNF BU B UIFPSFUJDBM MFWFM JU was necessary to unravel the terms of a DPOGVTJPO CFUXFFO PO UIF POF IBOE XIBU TPDJPMPHZ EFTJHOBUFT BT iDVMUVSFw BOE PO UIF PUIFS ĂśFME PCTFSWBUJPOT DPODFSOJOH UIF evidence from which the players interpret the relationships between the individual and the group. This research was notably UIF TVCKFDU PG UXP UFBN QVCMJDBUJPOT POF JO (ÂŤÂ Culture et mondialisation, gĂŠrer par-delĂ les frontiers ) aimed at diverse DPVOUSJFT QBSUJDVMBSMZ EFWFMPQFE POFT BOE̓ POF JO (ÂŤÂ Le Tiers-Monde qui rĂŠussit ) devoted to developing countries. " QVCMJDBUJPO 1 E *SJCBSOF La diversitĂŠ du monde) clarified the link and the

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

distinction that must be made between the analysis of “culturesâ€? and the structure of UIF VOJWFSTF PG NFBOJOH XIJDI PSJFOUBUFT the coherence of organisation systems. From this original hypothesis concerning “a SFGFSFODF TDFOFw UIF RVFTUJPO TVSSPVOEJOH modernisation in developing countries was given new life. 5IF ĂśMN CZ $ -BMMJFS BCPVU UIF – temporary – failure of an electrification QSPKFDU JO .BMJ MBVODIFE B OFX QIBTF of reflection about the interlinking of JOTUJUVUJPOBM TUSBUFHJD DVMUVSBM FDPOPNJD and social logics in the creation of a basic service. An approach that necessitated the accompaniment of researchers (in BTTPDJBUJPO XJUI UIF 63#"." -BCPSBUPSZ University of Tours) allowed us to demonstrate the guidance that research could provide in the institutionalising of a service. This enabled similar research to be carried out through the filmed analysis of a QSPWJTJPO PG ESJOLJOH XBUFS QSPKFDU JO .BMJ

5IJT SFTFBSDI XBT FYUFOEFE UP 7JĚ?U /BN where it notably benefitted from the new reference model. This opening allowed VT UP FYUFOE PVS NFUIPE BOE HP CFZPOE TJNQMF NBOBHFNFOU JTTVFT *U BMMPXFE VT UP FYQMPSF UIF RVFTUJPO PG MBOHVBHF BT CFJOH the vehicle of a universe with a specific TFOTF *U BMTP BMMPXFE VT UP UBLF BO JOUFSFTU in the coming together of another universal TZTUFN BOE UIF 7JFUOBNFTF DVMUVSBM DPOUFYU UISPVHI FYBNJOJOH UIF NFFUJOH PG $BUIPMJDJTN BOE UIF 7JFUOBNFTF DPOUFYU 3FTFBSDI UIFNFT EFWFMPQNFOU TPDJPMPHZ QPMJUJDBM BOUISPQPMPHZ PSHBOJTBUJPOT NBOBHFNFOU FDPOPNJD HPWFSOBODF BOE DVMUVSBM DPOUFYU

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

:WFT -& #"34 SUMMARY OF RESEARCH

Email: ZMC DPOTFJMT!PSBOHF GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS (FOFSBM SVSBM FOHJOFFS PG XBUFST BOE GPSFTUSZ )POPSBSZ TJODF

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Volunteer activities: President of the ComitĂŠ français pour la solidaritĂŠ internationale $'4* TJODF 4FQUFNCFS President of the Scientific Council of the Institut supĂŠrieur d’agriculture et d’agroalimentaire RhĂ´ne Alpes *4"3" -ZPO Member of the Scientific Council of the Association française de prĂŠvention des catastrophes naturelles "'1$/ Administrator of the Institut des Hautes Etudes pour la Science et la Technologie *)&45 BGUFS IBWJOH CFFO JO QVU in charge of a mission by the Ministry for )JHIFS &EVDBUJPO BOE 3FTFBSDI GPS UIF FTUBCMJTINFOU PG UIJT *OTUJUVUF Activities as a consultant (SARL YLB Conseils): Strategic counsellor for the REPERE programme (research department of .&%%5- UP FTUBCMJTI DMPTFS MJOLT CFUXFFO SFTFBSDI BOE /(0T JO PSEFS UP UBDLMF TVTUBJOBCMF EFWFMPQNFOU JTTVFT *NQBDU TUVEZ PG DPMMFDUJWF TDJFOUJĂśD FYQFSUJTF DBSSJFE PVU GSPN CZ */3" concerning the orientation choices of UIPTF SFTQPOTJCMF 5SBJOJOH FYQFSU GPS UIF Haut ComitĂŠ Français de DĂŠfense Civile )$'%$

My fifty or so years of professional life IBWF TFFO NF JO WBSJPVT GVODUJPOT IZESPMPHJDBM FOHJOFFSJOH JO .BEBHBTDBS EFWFMPQNFOU PG VSCBO (SFOPCMF PS SVSBM "RVJUBJOF "MQFT UFSSJUPSJFT and for twenty or so years managing an PSHBOJTN PG ĂśOBMJTFE SFTFBSDI JODMVEJOH UIF NBOBHFNFOU PG EJòFSFOU SJTLT .FUFPSPMPHJDBM BT %JSFDUPS (FOFSBM %( PG̓ $FNBHSFG OPX *345&" Institut de recherche sur les sciences et les technologies de l’environnement et de l’agriculture); (FPMPHJDBM BT %( PG UIF Bureau de recherches gĂŠologiques et minières #3(. 3BEJPBDUJWF BT 1SFTJEFOU PG UIF Agence nationale de gestion des dĂŠchets radioactifs "/%3" &OWJSPONFOUBM XJUI (.0T QFTUJDJEFT BOE FOFSHZ JTTVFT DPMMFDUJWF FYQFSUJTF GPS *3% JO /FX $BMFEPOJB The benefits of my career as an engineer BOE SFTFBSDIFS BOE NZ FYQFSJFODF PG QVCMJD EFCBUF BU BO JOUFSOBUJPOBM MFWFM XFSF JNQPSUBOU BTTFUT JO BMM UIFTF GVODUJPOT XIJDI EFNBOEFE IJHI MFWFMT PG FYQFSUJTF BOE UIF BCJMJUZ UP NBLF RVBMJUZ QVCMJD decisions. 5PEBZ BGUFS NPSF UIBO TFWFO ZFBST BT 1SFTJEFOU PG (3&5 iUIF QSPGFTTJPOBMT PG VOJUFE EFWFMPQNFOUw NZ QSPGFTTJPOBM activities remain centred on the same issues and the wish to link public decisions BOE FOUFSQSJTFT GSPN /PSUIFSO DPVOUSJFT XJUI JOUFSOBUJPOBM TPMJEBSJUZ BOE UIF OFFET

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

PG B ÜOJUF XPSME XJUI NPSF UIBO CJMMJPO interdependent inhabitants. .Z DVSSFOU BYFT PG XPSL DPODFSO " DPMMFDUJWF SFøFDUJPO BU $'4* PO UIF concept of international solidarity JUT TPVSDFT JUT BQQMJDBUJPO EFQFOEJOH PO EJòFSFOU TFDUPST and its enemies; - The ways and means of the necessary transition towards a society adapted to the JTTVFT BOE DPOTUSBJOUT PG UIF st DFOUVSZ from the village to the international level; - Relationships between science and action in the continuation of all the accumulated FYQFSJFODFT JO UIJT EPNBJO

5IF RVFTUJPO PG SJHIUT DVUT UISPVHI BMM UIFTF BYFT * BEESFTT UIJT RVFTUJPO JO particular by participating in the CadHom programme concerning human rights and the management of risks and disaster (with the Centre de Recherche sur les Sources du droit et les Droits de la Personne – CRSDP – at UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG -JNPHFT BOE JO EJòFSFOU 'PSVNT JO XIJDI * QBSUJDJQBUF Collectif Français 3*0 Forums Sociaux Mondiaux, Forum Mondial Sciences et DĂŠmocratie).

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

7BOFTTB ."/$&30/ Email: WBOFTTB NBODFSPO!NBF V QBSJT GS

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS

5IF รถSTU BYJT PG NZ SFTFBSDI XIJDI JT B DPOUJOVBUJPO PG UIF UIFTJT DPOTJTUT JO considering the conflicts and power relations that oppose heterogeneous social groups over uses of territory and QFSDFQUJPOT PG OBUVSF JO B SVSBM NJMJFV BOE QBSUJDVMBSMZ JO XFU [POFT

.FNCFS PG UIF Laboratoire dโ ethnologie et de sociologie comparative /BOUFSSF 1I % JO &UIOPMPHZ 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 1BSJT 0VFTU -B %ร GFOTF /BOUFSSF PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING 3FTQPOTJCMF GPS SFTFBSDI BU $/34 Laboratoire dโ ethnologie et de sociologie comparative -&4$ 6.3

5IF TFDPOE BYJT UIBU * IBWF CFFO EFWFMPQJOH PWFS UIF MBTU ZFBST XIJDI CFHBO BGUFS B chance event โ the avian flu that hit the SFHJPO PG %PNCFT JO XIFSF * XBT DBSSZJOH PVU NZ UIFTJT รถFMEXPSL DPOTJTUT in studying perceptions of the virus and QMVSBMอ SFBDUJPOT UP UIF IFBMUI DSJTJT CPUI in the Dombes region and in French associations for animal protection. 'JOBMMZ UIF MBTU BYJT XIJDI JT QSJODJQBMMZ based upon field work carried out in &OHMBOE JO UIF DPVOUZ PG 4PNFSTFU JT testimony to a turnaround in my research towards movements and institutions SFTQPOTJCMF GPS FOWJSPONFOUBM QSPUFDUJPO with a growing interest in the amateur naturalists and militants in environmental movements.

July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

[ ]

$ISJTUPQIF +BMJM /03%."/ Email: OPSENBO!EJBM QSE GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 1I % JO &DPOPNJD 4DJFODFT 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 1BSJT * 1BOUIĂ?PO 4PSCPOOF i5SBJOJOH of human capital and dissemination of LOPXMFEHF JO UIF FOUFSQSJTF FDPOPNFUSJD analysis of cross sectional data concerning Moroccan and Tunisian employersemployeesâ€?. PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING 'JSTU DMBTT SFTFBSDI EJSFDUPS Institut de recherche pour le dĂŠveloppement̓ *3% 6.3 %*"- %FWFMPQNFOU *OTUJUVUJPOT BOE (MPCBMJTBUJPO *3% 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 1BSJT̓%BVQIJOF 1PTUFE JO 1BSJT 'SBODF XXX EJBM QSE GS 3FTFBSDI 'FMMPX BU *;" *OTUJUVUF GPS UIF 4UVEZ PG -BCPVS #POO "TTPDJBUF SFTFBSDI GFMMPX BU 4,01& %FQBSUNFOU PG &EVDBUJPOBM 4UVEJFT 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 0YGPSE SUMMARY OF RESEARCH My research activities are devoted to the analysis of the functioning of the labour market in developing countries and focus PO QSPCMFNT PG QSPGFTTJPOBM JOTFSUJPO UIF SFNVOFSBUJPO EFDJTJPOT BOE TFYVBM JOFRVBMJUJFT USBOTGFST PG IVNBO DBQJUBM CZ NJHSBUJPO BOE UIF FòFDU PG TPDJBM OFUXPSLT PO QSPGFTTJPOBM USBKFDUPSJFT .Z SFTFBSDI is structured around the following three NBKPS BYFT

How remunerations are decided and remunerations and sexual inequality 5IJT BYJT SFHSPVQT SFTFBSDI DBSSJFE PVU PO FEVDBUJPO GBDUPST EFUFSNJOJOH BDDFTT to labour markets and on the creation of revenues from work in West Africa and in 7JĚ?U /BN 5IJT SFTFBSDI BJNT QBSUJDVMBSMZ to improve the range of competence and RVBMJĂśDBUJPO JOEJDBUPST IVNBO DBQJUBM BT XFMM BT UP CFUUFS HSBTQ UIF OBUVSF UIF FYUFOU BOE UIF FòFDUT PG XPSLFST USBJOJOH throughout their careers. This research is a continuation of my Ph.D. thesis in which * TPVHIU UP IJHIMJHIU NFDIBOJTNT PG formal apprenticeship in the workplace. 5IJT SFTFBSDI IBT MFE NF UP FYBNJOF UIF EFUFSNJOJOH GBDUPST BOE UIF DPOTFRVFODFT PG WVMOFSBCJMJUZ BU XPSL .PSF SFDFOUMZ *̓ EFWFMPQFE UIF UIFNF PG UIF EZOBNJD PG MBCPVS BMMPDBUJPO BOE SFWFOVFT JO 7JĚ?U /BN Ethnic and gender inequalities on the labour market 5IF PSJHJO BOE FYUFOU PG JOFRVBMJUJFT according to gender or ethnicity on the MBCPVS NBSLFU IBWF DPOTUJUVUFE B NBKPS BYJT PG NZ SFTFBSDI XIJDI * CFHBO BT TPPO BT * TUBSUFE XPSLJOH BU *3% JO *̓BN̓QBSUJDVMBSMZ JOUFSFTUFE JO SFNVOFSBUJPO HBQT BT XFMM BT TUZMJTFE GBDUT TVDI BT UIF FYJTUFODF PG B iHMBTT DFJMJOHw GPS XPSLJOH women. This research has resulted in several publications in selective international SFWJFXT CBTFE PO EJWFSTF TUBUJTUJDBM TPVSDFT IPVTFIPME TVSWFZT PO UIF POF IBOE employer-employee linked data on the other.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

Social networks and professional trajectories 5IF DFOUSBM RVFTUJPO JT UP EJTDPWFS UP XIBU FYUFOU BOE XIZ EJòFSFOU UZQFT PG TPDJBM OFUXPSLT NBZ MFBE UP EJòFSFOUJBUFE USBKFDUPSJFT PO UIF MBCPVS NBSLFU 5P UIJT FòFDU * NBLF VTF PG UIF UIFPSFUJDBM DPSQVT PG UXP EJTDJQMJOFT TPDJPMPHZ BOE FDPOPNZ 2VBMJUBUJWF BOE RVBOUJUBUJWF TVSWFZT BSF VTFE BU B IPVTFIPME BOE FOUFSQSJTF MFWFM so as to understand the role of networks in the success of individual entrepreneurship.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Sophie PARDO Email: TPQIJF QBSEP!VOJW OBOUFT GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 1I % JO &DPOPNJD 4DJFODFT UniversitĂŠ de la MĂŠditerranĂŠe VOEFS UIF HVJEBODF PG 3PCFSU ,BTU 5IFTJT UJUMF i'JOBODJBM .FUIPET GPS 3JTL .BOBHFNFOUw BXBSEFE IJHIFTU IPOPVST BOE DPOHSBUVMBUJPOT PG UIF KVSZ PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING -FDUVSFS BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT BOE researcher at the Laboratoire d’Êconomie et de management, Nantes-Atlantique -&./" TJODF 4FQUFNCFS 4JODF *̓IBWF CFFO SFTQPOTJCMF GPS UFBDIJOH UIF .BTUFS i'JOBODF BOE *OUFSOBUJPOBM "òBJSTw TQFDJBMJTJOH JO i3JTL .BOBHFNFOU BOE #VTJOFTT $MJFOUTw 4JODF * IBWF CFFO DPPSEJOBUJOH UIF SFTFBSDI BYJT i4FB and Coastâ€? at the Maison des Sciences de l’Homme Ange GuĂŠpin BOE * BN B NFNCFS of the committee of the FĂŠdĂŠration de Recherche Institut Universitaire Mer et Littoral.

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH My teaching activities involve finance and UIF NJDSP FDPOPNZ PG UIF VODFSUBJO * BMTP teach the theory of real options in the Risk .BOBHFNFOU BOE #VTJOFTT $MJFOUT .BTUFST as well as its applications in the domain of investments in sustainable development in the Masters Economy and Evaluation of Sustainable Development. 0O B SFTFBSDI MFWFM NZ XPSL JT QBSU PG UIF field micro economy of risk and of finance. *̓ BN QBSUJDVMBSMZ JOUFSFTUFE JO SJTLT JO coastal activities and in strategies to cover and manage these risks and in real options. 4JODF * IBWF CFFO UIF TDJFOUJĂśD MFBEFS of a multi disciplinary research programme i$04&-."3w ĂśOBODFE CZ UIF Pays de la Loire SFHJPO 'VSUIFSNPSF * DP PSHBOJTF UIF -&./" 'JOBODF BOE 3JTL XPSLTIPQ NPOUIMZ SFTFBSDI TFNJOBS TJODF BOE BN DP MFBEFS PG B SFTFBSDI BYJT PG UIF Chaire Finance-Banque Populaire - Caisse d’Epargne PG UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT 'PVOEBUJPO

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

-BVSF 1"426*&3Ĺą%06.&3 SUMMARY OF RESEARCH

Email: QBTRVJFS!EJBM QSE GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 1I % JO &DPOPNZ % $PHOFBV &DPOPNJTU %JS BXBSEFE XJUI highest honours and the unanimous DPOHSBUVMBUJPOT PG UIF KVSZ Institut d’Êtudes politiques de Paris *&1 L’inĂŠgalitĂŠ des chances au PĂŠrou: quatre ĂŠtudes. PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING Responsible for research at the Institut de recherche pour le dĂŠveloppement *3% JO UIF NJYFE SFTFBSDI VOJU %*"- *3% University Paris Dauphine).

My research theme is mainly concerned XJUI JOFRVBMJUZ PG DIBODFT JO EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT .PSF QSFDJTFMZ * BN JOUFSFTUFE in the role of social origin on an individual’s FEVDBUJPOBM BOE QSPGFTTJPOBM USBKFDUPSZ 5P BEESFTT UIJT JTTVF * NBLF VTF PG UPPMT GSPN micro-econometrics that are applied to MBSHF TDBMF IPVTFIPME TVSWFZT * DPNCJOF UIJT RVBOUJUBUJWF BQQSPBDI BT GBS BT QPTTJCMF XJUI B RVBMJUBUJWF BQQSPBDI UISPVHI the carrying out and analysis of semiTUSVDUVSFE JOUFSWJFXT #FGPSF NZ BSSJWBM JO 7JĚ?U /BN .BSDI JO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG B QBSUOFSTIJQ XJUI UIF 7JĚ?U̓/BN "DBEFNZ PG 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT 7"44 * NBJOMZ XPSLFE on Peru and Western Africa. The research * BN DBSSZJOH PVU JO 7JĚ?U̓ /BN GBMMT XJUIJO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG UIF /01003 QSPKFDU XIJDI JT ĂśOBODFE CZ UIF &VSPQFBO 6OJPO DPPSEJOBUFE CZ %*"- BOE CSJOHT UPHFUIFS JOTUJUVUJPOT GSPN DPVOUSJFT 5IJT QSPKFDU BJNT UP SFOFX UIJOLJOH BCPVU poverty and develop new strategies BJNFE BU SFEVDJOH JU *O UIF GSBNFXPSL PG 7JĚ?U̓/BN * BN QBSUJDVMBSMZ JOUFSFTUFE JO UIF role of social networks in the transmission of poverty from one generation to the OFYU CVU BMTP JO UIBU PG UIF QFSDFQUJPO UIBU individuals have of themselves by following XPSL PO BTQJSBUJPOT BOE TVCKFDUJWF XFMM being that have been recently developed in economy.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

:WFT 1&33"6%&"6 Email: ZWFT QFSSBVEFBV!VOJW OBOUFT GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS %PDUPSBUF VOEFS UIF HVJEBODF PG 1S 1JFSSF #BVDIFU BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ 1BSJT̓ * o 4PSCPOOF 5IFTJT i&YBNJOJOH UIF *TTVF PG UIF 3FEFQMPZNFOU PG 'SFODI *OEVTUSJBM %FFQ 4FB 'JTIJOH BO FYBNQMF JO UIF ,FSHVFMFO *TMBOETw BXBSEFE UIF IJHIFTU IPOPVST PG UIF KVSZ Distinctions: - Chevalier de l’Ordre des Palmes Académiques 'FCSVBSZ - Officier de l’Ordre des Palmes Académiques 'FCSVBSZ PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING * BN B TFOJPS MFDUVSFS BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT BOE IBWF CFFO UIF EJSFDUPS PG UIF /BOUFT *"& *OTUJUVUF PG &DPOPNZ BOE .BOBHFNFOU TJODF * BN BMTP responsible for cooperation with Southeast "TJB OPNJOBUFE CZ UIF 1SFTJEFOU PG UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT * IBWF CFFO SFTQPOTJCMF GPS B NBTUFS T JO i'JOBODF BOE *OUFSOBUJPOBM #VTJOFTTw TQFDJBMUZ i*OUFSOBUJPOBM öOBODF BOE NBSJUJNF MPHJTUJDTw TJODF #FGPSF UIJT *̓ XBT UIF %JSFDUPS PG UIF Centre d’observation et de recherche sur les ressources aquatiques et industries du littoral DVSSFOUMZ * BN B SFTFBSDIFS at the Economy and Management -BCPSBUPSZ ̓/BOUFT "UMBOUJRVF

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH As well as doing traditional teaching in NBDSP FDPOPNZ BOE FDPOPNJD IJTUPSZ * UFBDI NBSJUJNF öTIJOH FDPOPNZ JO UIF NVMUJ EJTDJQMJOBSZ NBTUFS T i*OUFHSBUFE NBOBHFNFOU PG DPBTUBM [POFTw BU UIF HFPHSBQIZ GBDVMUZ JO /BOUFT BOE NBSJUJNF HFP TUSBUFHZ JO UIF i*OUFSOBUJPOBM öOBODF and maritime logistics” master’s. "T GBS BT SFTFBSDI JT DPODFSOFE NZ XPSL essentially concerns the fishing and BRVBDVMUVSF FDPOPNZ 5IJT XPSL CFHBO at the time of my thesis and led to my CFDPNJOH GSPN UP B NFNCFS PG UIF 4DJFOUJöD 5FDIOJDBM BOE &DPOPNJD Committee of Fishing (CSTEP) of the &VSPQFBO 6OJPO o UIF (FOFSBM %JSFDUPSBUF PG .BSJUJNF "òBJST GSPN UP 4JODF * IBWF CFFO SFTQPOTJCMF GPS the scientific part of the research contract i/BUJPOBM QMVSJ BOOVBM programme for the collection of socioeconomic data concerning maritime öTIJOHw XIJDI JT QBSU PG UIF &VSPQFBO 3FHVMBUJPO 'SBNFXPSL PG th +VOF * IBWF BMTP IBE UIF TDJFOUJöD SFTQPOTJCJMJUZ GPS TFWFSBM QSPHSBNNFT QBSUJDVMBSMZ “Study of risk management of the price PG TFB QSPEVDUT UIFPSFUJDBM GFBTJCJMJUZ PG B EFSJWFE NBSLFUw .JOJTUSZ 0'*.&3 BOE i*NBHF BOE TPDJBM WBMPSJTBUJPO of the maritime fishing sector” (European $PNNJTTJPO &VSPQÐDIF * IBWF been a member of the Scientific Council of UIF (SBOE 1PSU .BSJUJNF PG /BOUFT 4BJOU /B[BJSF TJODF

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

1)Ë?. 5IĚ‘ )Ě•OH )ËźOI Email: UIJ IPOH IBOI QIBN!VOJW OBOUFT GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS 1I % JO &DPOPNZ .Z UIFTJT JT FOUJUMFE ̓ i5IF $IBMMFOHFT BOE Opportunities of Accession to the WTO GPS 7JĚ?U /BN An analysis of the relationship between trade and economyâ€?, University of 3PVFO BXBSEFE XJUI UIF IJHIFTU IPOPVST BOE VOBOJNPVT DPOHSBUVMBUJPOT PG UIF KVSZ PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING -FDUVSFS BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT TJODF 4FQUFNCFS )FBE UFBDIFS GPS #BDIFMPST .BOBHFNFOU #BOLJOH $BSFFST 3FTFBSDIFS BU -&./" 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT TJODF 4FQUFNCFS 5FBDIFS 3FTFBSDIFS BU $"3& 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 3PVFO SUMMARY OF RESEARCH My research concentrates on the GPMMPXJOH UIFNFT ĂśOBODJBM EFWFMPQNFOU and liberalisation; macro-finance and international finance; international trade and globalisation; economy of developing and emerging countries.

PUIFS IBOE * BN TUVEZJOH BMM UIF NBDSP economic and micro economic aspects of UIF WJSVMFOU JNQBDU PG UIF FDPOPNJD crisis on developing countries in Asia; 5IF USJBOHVMBS BOE DPNQMFY SFMBUJPOTIJQ CFUXFFO UIF PQFOJOH PG USBEF UIF PQFOJOH of finance and financial development; 5IF FòFDUT PG DPNNFSDJBM JOUFHSBUJPO PO JOUSB SFHJPOBM SFWFOVF JOFRVBMJUZ CFUXFFO EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT UIF NBJO BJN PG UIJT study is to test empirically the creation FòFDU BOE UIF EJWFSTJPO FòFDU PG GPSFJHO trade. My research thus aims to resolve B QPMJUJDBM RVFTUJPO i%PFT JOUSB SFHJPOBM trade play a primordial role in reducing intra-regional revenue disparity between EFWFMPQJOH DPVOUSJFT w 5IF FDPOPNZ PG 7JĚ?U /BN VOEFS UIF impact of economic integration. (FOFSBMMZ NZ SFTFBSDI BJNT UP BEESFTT the principal issues regarding economic integration and the economy of development.

*O PSEFS UP EFWFMPQ UIFTF EJòFSFOU BCPWF NFOUJPOFE UIFNFT NZ SFTFBSDI JOWPMWFT GPVS QSJODJQBM UIFNBUJDT - The relationship between commercial and financial integration and the financial DSJTJT JO PO UIF POF IBOE * FYQMPSF the role played by commercial and financial integration in the transmission of UIF ÜOBODJBM DSJTJT GSPN EFWFMPQFE to developing countries in Asia. On the

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

1)Ä/( å̠D 5áOH Email: UVOHQIVOH!NESJ PSH WO

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS

4UVEZ i*ODSFBTJOH UIF BCJMJUZ PG DPNNVOJUJFT̓ UP QSFWFOU NJUJHBUF BOE DPQF XJUI FYUSFNF̓XFBUIFS FWFOUTi *NQBDUT PG TIPDLT PO IPVTFIPMET WVMOFSBCJMJUZ JO å̃L -̃L )Ë 5ǡOI BOE )V̋ *NQBDU &WBMVBUJPO PG 1SPHSBN 1IBTF ** &OE PG QSPHSBN 1 ** 4VSWFZ - Action Plan for Sustainable Strategy for $PòFF JO 7J̏U̓/BN *NQBDU &WBMVBUJPO PG UIF $PNNVOJUZ )ZHJFOF 0VUQVU #BTFE "JE $)0#" *NQBDU PG JOWFTUNFOU DMJNBUF PO OPO GBSN IPVTFIPME CVTJOFTT 1IBTF ** 1SPWJODJBM $PNQFUJUJWFOFTT *OEFY )PVTFIPMET *OGPSNBM %JTCVSTFNFOUT GPS &EVDBUJPO JO 7J̏U̓/BN 3FTFBSDI PO (FOEFS FRVBMJUZ BOE BDDFTT UP productive and decent work for rural men and women; 7J̏U̓/BN /BUJPOBM "HJOH 4VSWFZ *NQBDUT PG öOBODJBM TVQQPSU PO IPVTFIPMET XFMGBSF JO 1SPHSBN 1IBTF ** /PSUIFSO .PVOUBJO 6QMBOE 1PWFSUZ 3FEVDUJPO 1SPKFDU 1IBTF ** %FTJHO . & TZTUFN GPS /PSUIFSO .PVOUBJO 6QMBOE 1PWFSUZ 3FEVDUJPO 1SPKFDU 1IBTF ** 7JFUOBN )PVTFIPMET -JWJOH 4UBOEBSE 4VSWFZ #BTFMJOF 4VSWFZ PG 1SPHSBN 1IBTF **

1I % &DPOPNJDT o 6OJWFSTJUZ PG )BOOPWFS (FSNBOZ PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING 1SFTFOU %JSFDUPS .FLPOH %FWFMPQNFOU 3FTFBSDI *OTUJUVUF $IBJSNBO BOE 3FTFBSDI 'FMMPX *OEPDIJOB 3FTFBSDI BOE $POTVMUJOH 3FTFBSDIFS 6OJWFSTJUZ PG )BOOPWFS (FSNBOZ 4FOJPS 3FTFBSDIFS *OTUJUVUF PG 1PMJDZ and Strategy for Agriculture and Rural %FWFMPQNFOU *14"3% 3FTFBSDIFS (FOFSBM 4UBUJTUJDT 0óDF 1SPKFDU .BOBHFS 6OJUFE /BUJPOT %FWFMPQNFOU 1SPHSBNNF 6/%1 1SPKFDU 7*&

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

Adrian POP SUMMARY OF RESEARCH

Email: BESJBO QPQ!VOJW OBOUFT GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS "DDSFEJUBUJPO UP TVQFSWJTF SFTFBSDI UJUMF “Essays on Banking Supervision, Regulation, and Corporate Governanceâ€? 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT 1I % UIFTJT JO FDPOPNZ “La discipline de marchĂŠ dans la rĂŠgulation bancaire: le rĂ´le de la dette subordonnĂŠeâ€? 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 0SMĂ?BOT XJUI IJHIFTU IPOPVST QSPQPTFE GPS UIFTJT QSJ[F BOE QVCMJDBUJPO HSBOU QSJ[F GPS NPOFUBSZ BOE CBOLJOH UIFTJT 'POEBUJPO #BORVF EF 'SBODF 'FCSVBSZ PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING -FDUVSFS BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT TJODF 4FQUFNCFS IFBE PG UFBDIJOH GPS .BTUFS T .BTUFS T “Banques, ChargĂŠs de Clientèle Professionnelsâ€? (block-release USBJOJOH JO DPMMBCPSBUJPO XJUI UIF Centre de formation de la profession bancaire 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT TJODF 4FQUFNCFS DPOTVMUBOU GPS UIF AutoritĂŠs de contrĂ´le prudentiel "$1 Banque de France TJODF %FDFNCFS DPOTVMUBOU GPS UIF Agence France-Presse "'1

My research topic is structured around CBOLJOH SJTLT ÜOBODJBM DSJTJT BOE QSVEFOUJBM regulation of banks. Other themes that GPSN QBSU PG NZ TVCKFDU PG SFTFBSDI BSF privatisation and governance of enterprises JO FNFSHJOH DPVOUSJFT DSFEJU EFSJWBUJWFT BOE UIF QSJODJQMFT PG *TMBNJD ÜOBODF My research in banking economy is structured around the following principal BYFT - The role of market discipline in the prudential regulation of banks; pricing of banking debt securities on international ÜOBODJBM NBSLFUT UIF #BTFM $BQJUBM "DDPSE 4ZTUFNJD SJTL FòFDUT PG ÜOBODJBM DPOUBHJPO BOE UIF i5PP #JH 5P 'BJMw EPDUSJOF evaluation of market reaction to systemic banking collapse and/or changes in public policy with regards to systemic banks; - Macro-prudential regulation of financial systems; pro-cyclical impact of financial regulation; stress tests for the macroeconomic resistance of the banking sector. My research work is essentially empirical BOE BJNT UP UFTU SFMBUJPOT JOUVJUJPOT BOE hypotheses and predicted behaviour by economic theory. Most of my research QSPKFDUT BSF DBSSJFE PVU JO DPMMBCPSBUJPO with economists from the AutoritÊ de contrôle prudentiel / Banque de France and are based upon micro- and macroeconomic databases.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

'SBOร PJT 306#"6% Email: SPVCBVE!EJBM QSE GS

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS

"T B EFWFMPQNFOU FDPOPNJTU NZ XPSL GPMMPXT UXP MJOFT PG SFTFBSDI

%PDUPSBUF JO &DPOPNZ 1BSJT 9* 6OJWFSTJUZ /BOUFSSF 8JUI IJHIFTU IPOPVST BOE DPOHSBUVMBUJPOT GSPN UIF KVSZ Summa cum laude DBOEJEBUF GPS UIFTJT QSJ[F BOE publication. PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING 3FTFBSDI %JSFDUPS *OTUJUVUF GPS %FWFMPQNFOU 3FTFBSDI *3% %*"- %FWFMPQNFOU *OTUJUVUJPOT BOE -POH 5FSN "OBMZTJT 6OJU 1PTUFE JO 7Jฬ U /BN (FOFSBM 4UBUJTUJDT 0รณDF (40 *44 JO 4FQUFNCFS 3FTFBSDI Programme on the Economic and Social 5SBOTJUJPO JO 7Jฬ U /BN

Statistical: survey methodology, data processing: %FWFMPQNFOU PG NJYFE TVSWFZ NFUIPET (households/enterprises) and creator of TVSWFZT GPS TUBUJTUJDBM NFBTVSJOH BOE BOBMZTJT PG UIF JOGPSNBM TFDUPS QSPKFDUT JO "GSJDB -BUJO "NFSJDB BOE JO "TJB - Development of modules โ Multiple %JNFOTJPOT PG 1PWFSUZw i(PWFSOBODFw BOE i%FNPDSBDZw QSPKFDUT JO "GSJDB BOE JO -BUJO America); - Support for national statistics institutes in the implementation and analysis of survey results. Economic: 'VODUJPOJOH PG MBCPVS NBSLFU JOGPSNBM TFDUPS VSCBO EZOBNJDT BOE UIF JNQBDU PO living conditions; -JOLT CFUXFFO HPWFSOBODF EFNPDSBDZ new dimensions of poverty and the process of economic development; - Analysis of public policies in developing DPVOUSJFT TUSVDUVSBM BEKVTUNFOU QSPHSBNNFT BOUJ QPWFSUZ TUSBUFHJFT follow-up and evaluation of impact.

[ ] July 2014 / Tam ฤ แบฃo Summer School Week 2013 / ยฉ AFD

#FSUSBOE 4"70:& Email: TBWPZFC!BGE GS

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS

3FTFBSDI PO WBSJPVT TVCKFDUT TUVEZ PG TUBUJTUJDT BOE FDPOPNZ PG FOUFSQSJTFT NBDSP FDPOPNJD BOE TFDUPSBM TUVEJFT QVCMJD öOBODF SFUSPTQFDUJWF FWBMVBUJPOT öOBODJBM TZTUFNT TUVEJFT UBY BOE DVTUPNT SFGPSNT USBOTQPSU FDPOPNZ

%&44 'JOBODF 6OJWFSTJUZ 1BSJT 9 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT UFBDIJOH EFHSFF PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING 4JODF EJòFSFOU TVDDFTTJWF GVODUJPOT at Agence Française de Développement FDPOPNJTU HFPHSBQIJD DPPSEJOBUPS IFBE PG UIF USBJOJOH EJWJTJPO BU UIF $&'&# IFBE of the Observatoire économique et des entreprises des instituts d’émission d’Outre Mer̓EJWJTJPO NJDSPöOBODF BOE NFTPöOBODF QSPKFDU MFBEFS TJODF BQQSBJTFS BU the Evaluation and Capitalisation Division.

.BOBHFNFOU PG QSPKFDU FWBMVBUJPOT QVCMJD QPMJDJFT BOE JNQBDU FWBMVBUJPOT JO EJòFSFOU sectors of activity.

1SFWJPVTMZ FDPOPNJTU TUBUJTUJDJBO BU */4&& GSPN UP BU &63045"5 SFTFBSDI PóDFS BU UIF Fondation pour la recherche économique et financière UP

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

1BUSJDL 5"*--"/%*&3 Email: QBUSJDL UBJMMBOEJFS!VOJW SPVFO GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS %PDUPSBUF UIFTJT JO (FP *OGPSNBUJPO 4DJFODF 6OJWFSTJUZ 1BSJT &TU DBSSJFE PVU BU UIF $0(*5 MBCPSBUPSZ PG *(/ i"VUPNBUJD revision of knowledge guiding the JOGPSNFE FYQMPSBUJPO PG SFQPSU USFFT BQQMJDBUJPO UP UIF DPOUFYU PG HFPHSBQIJD data generalisation“. PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING (FPHSBQIZ MFDUVSFS BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 3PVFO o 6.3 *%&&4 i*EFOUJUZ BOE EJòFSFOUJBUJPO PG 4QBDFT UIF &OWJSPONFOU BOE 4PDJFUJFTw o .5( .PEFMMJOH BOE HSBQIJD QSPDFTTJOH JO (FPHSBQIZ -BCPSBUPSZ )PMEFS PG B $IBJS PG &YDFMMFODF BU UIF $/34 SUMMARY OF RESEARCH My research work concerns the computerised modelling and simulation PG DPNQMFY TZTUFNT * BN QBSUJDVMBSMZ interested in modelling based upon the agents of socio-environmental systems. *O UIJT GSBNFXPSL * BN JOWPMWFE JO UISFF SFTFBSDI BYFT *OUFHSBUJPO PG HFPHSBQIJDBM EBUB JO BHFOU CBTFE NPEFMT 5IF BJN PG UIJT BYJT JT UP provide modellers with tools to integrate and manipulate data coming from HFPHSBQIJDBM JOGPSNBUJPO TZTUFNT (*4 JO simulations;

- Definition of cognitive agents in simulation. 5IFSF FYJTU UPEBZ NBOZ QMBUGPSNT UIBU BJN to help modellers create their own models. /FWFSUIFMFTT XJUIJO UIF GSBNFXPSL PG UIF NPEFMMJOH PG DPNQMFY FOUJUJFT TVDI BT IVNBO CFJOHT UIFTF QMBUGPSNT BSF PGUFO WFSZ MJNJUFE * BN UIFSFGPSF JOUFSFTUFE in defining tools that will allow us to compensate for this. An important case PG BQQMJDBUJPO GPS UIJT BYJT DPODFSOT UIF modelling of farmers’ behaviour; - Analysis and calibration of agent-based models. Agent-based models are generally WFSZ DPNQMFY 6OEFSTUBOEJOH UIFJS EZOBNJD and being able to calibrate them is most PG UIF UJNF WFSZ EJĂłDVMU * BN UIFSFGPSF working on the development of models UIBU BMMPX XJUI UIF IFMQ PG UFDIOJRVFT GSPN BSUJĂśDJBM JOUFMMJHFODF UIF BOBMZTJT PG the automatic calibration of models. * BN BMTP JOWPMWFE JO UIF TPGUXBSF development of two agent-modelling QMBUGPSNT ("." QMBUGPSN B QMBUGPSN UIBU incorporates a rich modelling language and a more thorough management of geographical data. This platform is being developed in part with Vietnamese partners (Institut de la Francophonie pour l’Informatique 6OJWFSTJUZ PG $ËżO 5IËŒ ."(FP QMBUGPSN B QMBUGPSN UIBU JT EFTJHOFE for geographers and modellers without any QSPHSBNNJOH FYQFSJFODF 5IJT QMBUGPSN PòFST B HSBQIJD NPEFMMJOH JOUFSGBDF CBTFE PO UIF VTF PG iCPYFTw

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

0MJWJFS 5&44*&3 Email: PUFTTJFS !ZBIPP GS TITLES AND DIPLOMAS %PDUPS PG "OUISPQPMPHZ 6OJWFSTJUZ PG "JY .BSTFJMMF “The Native Country is a Sweet Star Fruitâ€?. Social Roots and Spatial Mobility: Essay to Define a Local Social Space in the North of Viᝇt Nam. Academie d’Aix-Marseille, UniversitĂŠ de Provence "JY .BSTFJMMF %FQBSUNFOU PG "OUISPQPMPHZ "SUT BOE )VNBOJUJFT 4FDUJPO %FDFNCFS ̓Q Q BOOFYFT &OHJOFFS PG "HSPOPNJD 5FDIOJRVFT JO 8BSN 3FHJPOT TQFDJBMJTJOH JO 4PDJBM .BOBHFNFOU PG 8BUFS Centre National des Etudes Agronomiques en Regions Chaudes $/&"3$ .POUQFMMJFS SUMMARY OF RESEARCH After studying to become a tropical agronomic engineer and spending four years in charge of development QSPHSBNNFT #VSLJOB 'BTP )BJUJ * CFHBO B EPDUPSBUF JO BOUISPQPMPHZ JO 6OJWFSTJUZ PG "JY .BSTFJMMF GPS XIJDI UIF field work was situated in the north of 7JĚ?U /BN QSPWJODF PG 1IĂž 5IĚ’ 8IJMF XSJUJOH NZ UIFTJT XIJDI * EFGFOEFE JO * BUUFNQUFE UP EFNPOTUSBUF UIF̓LJOI PS 7JĚ?U SVSBM TQBDF HFOFSBMMZ DPODFJWFE and described as the aggregation of total BOE FYDMVTJWF VOJUT SFQSFTFOUFE CZ UIF WJMMBHF XIJDI UBLFT PO B EJòFSFOU BTQFDU when envisaged through the angle of FYDIBOHFT PG UIF EZOBNJDT PG DPOTUJUVUJPO and transformation of social and political spaces. The peasants’ legendary ties to the “land of their ancestorsâ€? has been replaced

CZ B NPSF DPNQMFY BOE CVSHFPOJOH SFBMJUZ that of a mobile population always ready to move to wherever opportunities present themselves. Co-editor of “Le Village en questionâ€? UIF GSVJU of a multi-disciplinary research programme DPOKPJOUMZ DBSSJFE PVU GSPN UP CZ UIF DFOUSF ²'&0 JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J BOE UIF 7"44 *̓ BMTP DPPSEJOBUFE NZ PXO SFTFBSDI BU UIF TBNF UJNF UXP TDJFOUJĂśD DPPQFSBUJPO QSPHSBNNFT GPS UIF $BUIPMJD 6OJWFSTJUZ PG -PVWBJO JO UIF NPVOUBJOPVT QSPWJODFT PG 4ËŒO -B BOE )Ă›B #Ă–OI %VSJOH UIF TBNF QFSJPE * QBSUJDJQBUFE JO FYQFSU missions for international organisations &VSPQFBO 6OJPO 8PSME #BOL 'JOBMMZ GSPN +BOVBSZ UP 4FQUFNCFS * EJSFDUFE UIF '41 QSPKFDU i3FTFBSDI Support on Economic and Social Transition *TTVFT JO 7JĚ?U̓ /BNw XIJDI XBT ĂśOBODFE CZ UIF .JOJTUSZ GPS 'PSFJHO "òBJST BOE JNQMFNFOUFE CZ UIF ²'&0 DFOUSF JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J *O UIF GSBNFXPSL PG NZ QPTUJOH BU UIF ²'&0̓ BT B MFDUVSFS 4FQUFNCFS *̓ QVSTVFE NZ SFTFBSDI JOUP UIF LFZ RVFTUJPO DPODFSOJOH UIF FWPMVUJPO PG UIF relationship between the “state – peasant DPMMFDUJWJUJFTw UISPVHIPVU UIF th and th centuries by looking at them from a water management and hydraulic WJFXQPJOU UIF PNOJQSFTFODF PG XIJDI shaped the countryside and permeated IVNBO DVMUVSF *O DPODSFUF UFSNT JU JT BEWJTBCMF UP FYBNJOF UIF FDPOPNJD political and social conditions of the implementation of a large-scale hydraulic infrastructure in the Red River and Mekong

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

3JWFS EFMUBT UP FOWJTBHF UIF QPTTJCJMJUJFT PG DPOUSPMMJOH IVNBO BDUJWJUZ BOE MBOE PòFSFE CZ TVDI B MBZJOH PVU PG TQBDF UP UBLF BO JOUFSFTU JO UIF DPOTUSVDUJPO UFDIOJRVFT which have progressively resulted in UIF SFNPEFMMJOH PG UIF UFSSJUPSZ BOE finally to analyse the modalities of water management implemented by peasant DPMMFDUJWJUJFT PO UIF POF IBOE BOE CZ UIF TUBUF UISPVHI JUT TQFDJBMJTFE DPSQPSBUJPOT XIJDI BSF WFSJUBCMF UFDIOJDBM TFSWJDFT PO the other.

"T IFBE PG UIF ²'&0 7"44 BSDIBFPMPHJDBM DPPQFSBUJPO QSPHSBNNF * DPPSEJOBUFE EJòFSFOU QSPKFDUT JO PSEFS UP TVQQPSU UIF *OTUJUVUF PG "SDIBFPMPHZ JO JUT NJTTJPO of conservation-cultural heritage EFWFMPQNFOU PG UIF TJUF "U UIF TBNF UJNF GPS UXP ZFBST JO 7JĂ?U /BN BOE 'SBODF * carried out archive-based research into UIF IJTUPSZ PG )Ă‹ /Ě˜J $JUBEFMMF EVSJOH UIF th DFOUVSZ #BTFE PO 7JFUOBNFTF imperial annals and on the abundant XSJUUFO BOE JDPOPHSBQIJDBM TPVSDFT QMBOT NBQT QIPUPHSBQIT QSPEVDFE EVSJOH UIF DPMPOJBM QFSJPE UIJT IJTUPSJDBM SFDPOTUJUVUJPO work resulted in the organisation of several MFDUVSFT BOE BO FYIJCJUJPO " XSJUUFO publication is currently being drafted. 'JOBMMZ TJODF 4FQUFNCFS * IBWF CFFO IFBE PG UIF ²'&0 JO 7JĚ?U /BN UIBU HSPVQT UPHFUIFS UIF DFOUSF PG UIF TDIPPM JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J BOE UIF iEFMFHBUJPO PG UIF ²'&0 DFOUSF JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J JO )Ě• $IĂ“ .JOI $JUZ w

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

5IPNBT 7"--²& Email: UIPNBT WBMMFF!VOJW OBOUFT GS

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING

.Z UFBDIJOH DPODFSOT NJDSP FDPOPNZ JOEVTUSJBM FDPOPNZ EFDJTJPO UIFPSZ BOE international finance.

%JSFDUPS PG -&./" Laboratoire d’Êconomie et de management de Nantes Atlantique); University Professor in Economic Sciences TJODF 4FQUFNCFS 1PTUFE UP UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT GSPN 4FQUFNCFS UP "VHVTU ĂśSTU BT B MFDUVSFS UIFO BT B VOJWFSTJUZ QSPGFTTPS GSPN 4FQUFNCFS UP +BOVBSZ BU UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG /BOUFT BU UIF Institut d’Economie et de Management de NantesIAE̓ *&./ *"&

*O SFTFBSDI NZ XPSL JT FTTFOUJBMMZ PSJFO tated towards the economy of natural SFTPVSDFT ĂśTIJOH JOEVTUSJBM FDPOPNZ BOE monetary economy. 4JODF * IBWF CFFO UIF EJSFDUPS PG UIF Laboratoire d’Êconomie et de management de Nantes-Atlantique -&./" XIJDI HSPVQT UPHFUIFS NPSF UIBO QFSNBOFOU NFNCFST BOE NPSF UIBO 1I % TUVEFOUT 'PS TFWFO ZFBST GSPN UP * XBT a member of the Commission Scientifique Permanente du Conseil National de l’Enseignement SupĂŠrieur et de la Recherche $/&4&3 BOE GPS UISFF ZFBST GSPN UP * XBT EJSFDUPS PG UIF EFQBSUNFOU PG Langues ĂŠtrangères appliquĂŠes -&" 'JOBMMZ GSPN UP * XBT B NFNCFS PG UIF Administrative Council of the University PG /BOUFT BOE TJODF * IBWF CFFO B member of the Administrative Council of *&./ *"&

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

#SVOP 7*/%&Email: WJOEFMC!BGE GS

SUMMARY OF RESEARCH

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS

"T B SVSBM FOHJOFFS PG XBUFS BOE GPSFTUSZ * CFHBO NZ QSPGFTTJPOBM DBSFFS XPSLJOH at the French Ministry for Agriculture and was involved in the European Agricultural Policy (CAP) as head of the agricultural sector at the Secretariat for European "òBJST * UIFO HPU JOWPMWFE XJUI EFWFMPQNFOU DPPQFSBUJPO XIFO * CFDBNF BO FYQFSU GPS UIF BHSP JOEVTUSZ BU UIF 6/*%0 BOE MBUFS CFDBNF head of the Agriculture and Private Sector Division at the French Ministry for Foreign "òBJST * XBT %JSFDUPS PG FWBMVBUJPO PVUMPPL BOE FDPOPNJD TUVEJFT BU UIF .JOJTUSZ GPS "HSJDVMUVSF XIFSF * DBSSJFE PVU XPSL MJOLFE UP $"1 reform and rural development. At Agence Française de DÊveloppement * ÜSTU XPSLFE BT BO FYQFSU PO GPPE TFDVSJUZ CFGPSF KPJOJOH UIF "TJB %FQBSUNFOU XIFSF * XBT JO DIBSHF PG SFMBUJPOT XJUI UIF "TJBO %FWFMPQNFOU #BOL

/BUJPOBM 4DIPPM PG 3VSBM Engineering Water and Forestry – Paris. 0CUBJOFE UJUMF 3VSBM &OHJOFFS PG 8BUFST BOE Forestry. /BUVSF PG TUVEJFT IZESPMPHZ o GPSFTUSZ o agricultural economy. PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING IngĂŠnieur gĂŠnĂŠral des ponts, des eaux et forĂŞts *(1&' Economist in the Asia Department of Agence Française de DĂŠveloppement (AFD) TJODF +VMZ

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

7Âż ĂĽĚ D ÂŹO Email: WPEVDBOWO!ZBIPP DPN

PRESENT PROFESSIONAL POSTING

TITLES AND DIPLOMAS

4JODF +VMZ * IBWF CFFO XPSLJOH JO UIF .4* *'* UFBN BT B USBJOFF FOHJOFFS * am participating in the development of the agent-based simulation and modelling QMBUGPSN ("." IUUQ HBNB QMBUGPSN googlecode.com). The platform is used to develop several agent-based models JO EJòFSFOU BQQMJDBUJPO EPNBJOT TVDI BT FQJEFNJPMPHZ BJE NBOBHFNFOU GPMMPXJOH OBUVSBM EJTBTUFST JOTFDU JOWBTJPOT FUD

.BTUFS T JO DPNQVUFS TDJFODF EVBM diploma from the Institut de la francophonie pour l’informatique *'* BOE GSPN UIF 6OJWFSTJUZ PG -B 3PDIFMMF $PNQVUFS FOHJOFFS 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 4DJFODFT )VĚ‹ 7JĚ?U /BN

4JODF 4FQUFNCFS * IBWF CFFO studying for a doctorate fianced by Agence universitaire de la Francophonie VOEFS̓ "MFYJT %SPVHPVM %JSFDUPS PG 3FTFBSDI *3% * BN DVSSFOUMZ XPSLJOH JO UXP MBCPSBUPSJFT .4* *'* JO )Ă‹ /Ě˜J BOE BU *3% JO #POEZ 'SBODF 5IF BJN PG NZ UIFTJT is to propose an agent-based modelling language in order to develop multi-level agent-based models.

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

Acronyms and Abbreviations "#$1 "#4 ACPR "%# AFD "'&5 "'1$/ "(*3T "*3% "/%3" APTERR AUF ";* #3(. #5* #6-0( CAP $%0T CDS CEA $&'63% CETMEF $*4 $&3*4& $'4* $("1 $*%$. $*3"% $.#4 $/&"3$ $/34 $/6$&% $1* CRED CRSDP CTC DC %*$3*.

"TTFU #BDLFE $PNNFSDJBM 1BQFS "TTFU #BDLFE 4FDVSJUJFT AutoritĂŠ de contrĂ´le prudentiel et de rĂŠsolution "TJBO %FWFMPQNFOU #BOL Agence Française de DĂŠveloppement "HSJDVMUVSBM 'VUVSFT &YDIBOHF PG 5IBJMBOE 'SFODI "TTPDJBUJPO GPS /BUVSBM %JTBTUFS 3FEVDUJPO "OJNBM BOE JOUFHSBUFE SJTL NBOBHFNFOU Agence inter-ĂŠtablissements de recherche pour le dĂŠveloppement Agence nationale de gestion des dĂŠchets radioactifs "4&"/ Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve Agence universitaire de la francophonie Atlas des zones inondables Bureau de recherches gĂŠologiques et minières #FSUFMTNBOO 5SBOTGPSNBUJPO *OEFY 4UBUF "HFODZ GPS UIF -PHJTUJDT .BOBHFNFOU PG 3JDF Common Agricultural Policy $PMMBUFSBMJ[FE %FCU 0CMJHBUJPOT Credit Default Swap French Atomic Energy and Alternative Energy Commission. $FOUSF GPS UIF 4UVEZ PG 6SCBO 1MBOOJOH 5SBOTQPSU BOE 1VCMJD 'BDJMJUJFT Centre d’Êtudes techniques maritimes et fluviales $PNNPOXFBMUI PG *OEFQFOEFOU 4UBUFT ComitĂŠ d’Êchanges de rĂŠflexion et d’information sur les systèmes d’Êpargne-crĂŠdit 'SFODI *OUFSOBUJPOBM 4PMJEBSJUZ $PNNJTTJPO $POTVMUBUJWF (SPVQ UP "TTJTU UIF 1PPS $FOUSF GPS *OUFSOBUJPOBM %FWFMPQNFOU BOE $POøJDU .BOBHFNFOU Centre international de recherche agronomique pour le dĂŠveloppement $PNNFSDJBM .PSUHBHF #BDLFE 4FDVSJUJFT Centre national d’Êtudes agronomiques des rĂŠgions chaudes Centre national de la recherche scientifique 6OJUFE /BUJPOT $POGFSFODF PO 5SBEF BOE %FWFMPQNFOU $PSSVQUJPO 1FSDFQUJPOT *OEFY Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disaster Centre de recherche sur les sources du droit et les droits de la personne ComitĂŠ territorial de concertation Developing country Dossier communal d’information sur les risques majeurs

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

DTM EEPSEA ²'&0 &($ &NEBU &/4"& ESCAP ESCPE / CPE FCF '%* FED '0$1 '3. ("." (".- ("55 (%1 (*4 (*4" (.0 (1* (3&5 (40 )$'%$ )%* )04 )645 *"& *%3$ *'* *'3* *)&45 *-0 *.' */3" *3# *3*5 *31/4

Digital terrain model Economy and Environment Program for Southeast Asia École française d’ExtrĂŞme-Orient Modèles de simulation basĂŠs sur une analyse contrefactuelle *OUFSOBUJPOBM &NFSHFODZ %JTBTUFST %BUBCBTF École nationale de la statistique et de l’administration ĂŠconomique Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific École supĂŠrieure de chimie physique ĂŠlectronique Free Cash Flow 'PSFJHO %JSFDU *OWFTUNFOU Federal Reserves System 'FEFSBM 0ĂłDF GPS $JWJM 1SPUFDUJPO 'JYFE 3BUF .PSUHBHF (JT BOE "HFOU #BTFE .PEFMMJOH "SDIJUFDUVSF (BNB .PEFMMJOH -BOHVBHF (FOFSBM "HSFFNFOU PO 5BSJòT BOE 5SBEF (SPTT %PNFTUJD 1SPEVDU (FPHSBQIJD *OGPSNBUJPO 4ZTUFNT Groupe interministĂŠriel pour la sĂŠcuritĂŠ alimentaire (FOFUJDBMMZ .PEJĂśFE 0SHBOJTN (MPCBM 1FBDF *OEFY Groupe de recherche et d’Êchanges technologiques (FOFSBM 4UBUJTUJDT 0ĂłDF Haut comitĂŠ français de dĂŠfense civile )VNBO %FWFMPQNFOU *OEFY )FDLTIFS 0IMJO 4BNVFMTPO )BOPJ 6OJWFSTJUZ PG 4DJFODFT BOE 5FDIOPMPHZ Institut d’Êconomie et de management de Nantes *OUFSOBUJPOBM %FWFMPQNFOU 3FTFBSDI $FOUSF Institut de la Francophonie pour l’Informatique Institut français des relations internationales Institut des hautes ĂŠtudes pour la science et la technologie *OUFSOBUJPOBM -BCPVS 0SHBOJ[BUJPO *OUFSOBUJPOBM .POFUBSZ 'VOE Institut national de la recherche agronomique *OUFSOBM 3BUJOH #BTFE "QQSPBDI Institut de recherche en informatique de Toulouse *OTUJUVUF PG 3BEJBUJPO 1SPUFDUJPO BOE /VDMFBS 4BGFUZ

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

*345&" *4%3 *4-"/% *3% *33 +5% -"5& -&./" -&4$ -*#03 ."&-*" MAPS ."3% .%( .&5*44& .'* .*$" MOWRAM .1* 1.0 MRC /")$ /"50 /(0 /*/+" 0 % OECD OMA 1"1* 1"3%* PCS PDCF 1%6* 1-6 113/ 113/. PRSP 3.#4

Institut de recherche sur les sciences et les technologies de l’environnement *OUFSOBUJPOBM 4USBUFHZ GPS %JTBTUFS 3FEVDUJPO *OGPSNBUJPO 4ZTUFNT GPS -PDBM "VUIPSJUJFT /FFET UP GBDF %JTBTUFST Institut de recherche pour le dĂŠveloppement *OUFSOBM 3BUF PG 3FUVSO JournĂŠes de Tam Ä?ảo -PDBM "WFSBHF 5SFBUNFOU &òFDU Laboratoire d’Êconomie et de management Nantes Atlantique Laboratoire d’ethnologie et de sociologie comparative -POEPO *OUFS#BOL 0òFSFE 3BUF .VMUJ "HFOU GPS &OWJSPONFOUBM /PSNT *NQBDU "TTFTTNFOU ModĂŠlisation multi-agents appliquĂŠe aux phĂŠnomènes spatialisĂŠs .JOJTUSZ PG "HSJDVMUVSF BOE 3VSBM %FWFMPQNFOU 7JĚ?U /BN

.JMMFOOJVN %FWFMPQNFOU (PBMT MÊthodes et thÊories pour une ingÊniÊrie des systèmes socio-environnementaux .JDSPÜOBODF JOTUJUVUJPO .VMUJNFEJB *OGPSNBUJPO $PNNVOJDBUJPO BOE "QQMJDBUJPOT Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology (Phnom Penh) .VMUJEJSFDUJPOBM 1PWFSUZ *OEFY 1SJNF .JOJTUFS 0óDF -BPT

Mekong River Commission /BUJPOBM "OJNBM )FBMUI $FOUSF /PSUI "UMBOUJD 5SFBUZ 0SHBOJTBUJPO /PO (PWFSONFOUBM 0SHBOJTBUJPO /P *ODPNF /P +PC /P "TTFU 0SJHJOBUF UP %JTUSJCVUF Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development Agricultural Markets Observer Programmes d’actions de prĂŠvention contre les inondations Problème Acteurs Ressources Dynamiques et Interactions Plan communal de sauvegarde Primary Dealer Credit Facility Projet de dĂŠveloppement urbain intĂŠgrĂŠ Plan local d’urbanisme Plans de prĂŠvention des risques naturels Plans de prĂŠvention des risques naturels majeurs Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers 3FTJEFOUJBM .PSUHBHF #BDLFE 4FDVSJUJFT

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

3/4$ 30& RWA 4"'&9 4"* 4$)"1* SMAC 4.& SPV 5"- TEPCO 5/0 6.- 6/ 8)0 83* WTO

RĂŠseau national des systèmes complexes 3FUVSO PO &RVJUZ Risk Weighted Asset 4PVUI "GSJDBO 'VUVSFT &YDIBOHF 4DJFOUJĂśD "TTFTTNFOU PG *NQBDU Service central d’hydromĂŠtĂŠorologie et d’appui Ă la prĂŠvision des inondations Système multi-agents coopĂŠratifs 4NBMM BOE .FEJVN TJ[FE &OUSFQSJTFT Special Purpose Vehicle 1FSJPE PG SFUVSO i5w PG UIF IB[BSE Tokyo Electric Power Company /FUIFSMBOET 0SHBOJTBUJPO GPS "QQMJFE 4DJFOUJĂśD 3FTFBSDI 6OJĂśFE .PEFMMJOH -BOHVBHF 6OJUFE /BUJPOT 8PSME )FBMUI 0SHBOJTBUJPO 8PSME 3JTL *OEFY World Trade Organisation

July 2014 / Tam Ä?ảo Summer School Week 2013 / Š AFD

[ ]

[ ] July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

8IBU JT "'% "'% Agence Française de Développement JT B QVCMJD EFWFMPQNFOU öOBODF JOTUJUVUJPO UIBU has worked for seventy years to alleviate poverty and foster sustainable development in UIF EFWFMPQJOH XPSME BOE JO UIF 'SFODI PWFSTFBT UFSSJUPSJFT "'% FYFDVUFT UIF 'SFODI̓(PWFSONFOU T EFWFMPQNFOU BJE QPMJDJFT 8PSLJOH PO GPVS DPOUJOFOUT "'% IBT TFWFOUZ POF öFME PóDFT BOE CVSFBVT JODMVEJOH OJOF JO 'SBODF T PWFSTFBT QSPWJODFT BOE POF JO #SVTTFMT 5IF "HFODZ QSPWJEFT öOBODJOH BOE TVQQPSU GPS QSPKFDUT UIBU JNQSPWF MJWJOH DPOEJUJPOT QSPNPUF FDPOPNJD HSPXUI BOE protect the planet. *O "'% DPNNJUUFE &63̓ CJMMJPO UP QSPKFDUT JO EFWFMPQJOH BOE FNFSHJOH DPVOUSJFT BOE JO UIF 'SFODI PWFSTFBT UFSSJUPSJFT 5IFTF "'% öOBODFE QSPKFDUT XJMM QSPWJEF TDIPPMJOH GPS DIJMESFO JNQSPWF NBUFSOBM IFBMUI QSPNPUF FRVBMJUZ CFUXFFO NFO BOE XPNFO TVQQPSU GBSNFST BOE TNBMM CVTJOFTTFT BOE CPMTUFS BDDFTT UP ESJOLJOH XBUFS USBOTQPSUBUJPO BOE FOFSHZ 5IFTF OFXMZ GVOEFE QSPKFDUT XJMM BMTP IFMQ NJUJHBUF DMJNBUF EJTSVQUJPO CZ BCBUJOH OFBSMZ NJMMJPO NFUSJD UPOT PG DBSCPO EJPYJEF FRVJWBMFOU annually.

www.afd.fr/lang/en/home

"HFODF 'SBOÎBJTF EF %ÏWFMPQQFNFOU SVF 3PMBOE #BSUIFT o 1BSJT $FEFY 5FM o XXX BGE GS $PQZSJHIU rd RVBSUFS *44/

July 2014 / Tam Đảo Summer School Week 2013 / © AFD

[ ]

TRI THUC PUBLISHING HOUSE /HVZ̎O %V )Ë /̘J 7J̏U /BN 5FM 'BY &NBJM MJFOIF!OYCUSJUIVD DPN WO

Various authors The Perception and Management of Risk Applied Methodological Approaches to Development i5BN å˽P 4VNNFS 4DIPPM 8FFLw 7J̏U /BN

,IÈJ OJ̏N WË RV˽O Mâ S̟J SP $ÈD DÈDI UJ̋Q D̂O QIˍˌOH̓QIÈQ̓MV̂O ̠OH E̞OH trong̓QIÈU̓USJ̍O) 1VCMJDBUJPOT %JSFDUPS $)6 )ˑ0 &EJUPS 1I˼N 5VZ̋U /HB %FTJHO BOE MBZPVU 5PNPSSPX .FEJB $PWFS 5PNPSSPX .FEJB

*O QBSUOFSTIJQ XJUI 7J̏U /BN "DBEFNZ PG 4PDJBM 4DJFODFT 7"44

"HFODF 'SBOÎBJTF EF %ÏWFMPQQFNFOU "'%

DPQJFT QSJOUFE GPSNBU Y DN CZ )B 7JOI -UE "EESFTT ,IV " YÍ 1IÞ %J̎O 5̡ -JÐN )Ë /̘J -JDFODF /o $9# 5S5 1VCMJDBUJPO EFDJTJPO 2å-, o /9# 5S5 CZ UIF̓%JSFDUPS PG 5SJ 5IVD QVCMJTIJOH IPVTF TJHOFE UIF +VOF *4#/ 3FHJTUSBUJPO PG DPQZSJHIU rd RVBSUFS PG

CMYK

The Perception and Management of Risk

COORDINATION Stéphane LAGRÉE French School of Asian Studies, ÉFEO fsp2s@yahoo.fr Virginie DIAZ Research Department, AFD diazv@afd.fr

/ July 2014 /

This work contains a verbatim account of the presentations and debates from the plenary sessions and workshops that took place from 19th to 27th July 2013 at the University of Đà Lạt on the topic of “The Perception and Management of Risk“. Four main areas of reflection are prioritised in the framework of the thematic workshops: From Crisis to the Reduction of Disaster Risk: The Case of Flooding; Financial and Economic Risk; Impact Evaluation: Methods and Application with a Thematic Focus on Microfinance; Understanding Past Crises in Order to Manage Better the Present: Initiation to the Geo-historical Modelling of Risks (the 1926 Red River Swelling).

10 July 2014

The Perception and Management of Risk Applied Methodological Approaches to Development

Regional Social Sciences Summer University “Tam Đảo Summer School Week” (Đà Lạt, Việt Nam) July 2013

Conférences & Séminaires

The Vietnam Academy of Social Sciences (VASS), Agence Française de Développement (AFD), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), University of Nantes, École française d’Extrême-Orient (ÉFEO) and Agence Universitaire de la Francophonie (AUF) have decided to give their support to the Regional Social Sciences Summer University, referred to as “Tam Đảo Days”, in the framework of the 2010-2013 partnership agreement. This partnership has the objectives of developing a multidisciplinary training of excellence, creating a platform for debate, and attracting a wide academic and non-academic audience from across Southeast Asia.

The Perception and Management of Risk

Applied Methodological Approaches to Development

!"#$%&'($)*!$(+,$("-.

CMYK

Turn static files into dynamic content formats.

Create a flipbook
Issuu converts static files into: digital portfolios, online yearbooks, online catalogs, digital photo albums and more. Sign up and create your flipbook.