Propensities for changes in employment status across distinct phases of COVID Using the results from tables 1–2, figures 4–7 illustrate the estimated probabilities of the respective employment outcomes for youths versus non-youths and women versus men, across different phases of the pandemic. The estimates shown are the medians in each age-cohort and sex group during each week. The dynamics in these estimates over time are due to the time-varying nature of policy stringency (including its interaction with the youth status) and to time trends. Since these are medians, they are not unduly affected by the rare changes in the residence, education and youth status of a small fraction of workers, or by attrition or introduction of refresher samples. The time spans and samples covered in the figures are restricted to those appearing in the respective regressions. In figures 4–5, the focus is on the propensities for changes in workers’ employment outcomes among workers at risk of such changes (Couch and Fairlie 2010). The samples are restricted to groups for which the outcomes are most pertinent: probability of becoming employed is shown only among those currently unemployed or OLF (speculating that they are presently discouraged but available; figures excluding those OLF are nearly identical), and probability of layoff is shown only among those currently employed. For reference, figures 6–7 show the probabilities of all employment statuses for the full sample used in regressions.
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