M E A S U R E M2 P R O G R E S S R E P O RT
M2 DELIVERY RISK UPDATE This section discusses the risks and challenges related to Measure M2 and the 2018 update of the Next 10 Delivery Plan (Next 10) that the Measure M2 Program Management Office (PMO) is monitoring – complete with associated explanations and proposed actions. Delivery Risk Financial 1
2
1
The 2018 M2 revenue forecast estimate is $13.1 billion, which represents a 46 percent decrease in forecasted revenue since M2 adoption.
Explanation
Proposed Action
Sales tax revenue has been impacted by the recession and changes in consumer spending habits.
The 2019 forecast that is planned to go to the Board on October 28, 2019 will reflect an updated review forecast of $13.4 billion. The 2019 higher forecast provides a positive change which gives relief to the reliance on external funding to deliver the Freeway Program. OCTA will continue to actively pursue available state and federal revenue, and work with Caltrans to identify cost effective freeway alternatives. Inability to scale the Freeway The M2 Freeway Program includes OCTA will work closely with Caltrans Program to available revenue set project scopes leaving very to apply value engineering strategies and still deliver the promise. little flexibility in what is delivered. on projects to manage costs.
3
Schedule and scope changes on Changes as a result of updated critical capital projects impacting highway standards or issues delivery and project costs. identified in the field regularly impact scope and schedule and ultimately costs.
Continue tight rein on project delivery. Work closely with Caltrans and project contractors to keep changes in scope and schedule to a minimum.
4
Sustain Metrolink train service as an attractive alternative to driving in Orange County with the limits of available revenue.
Staff will continue to work closely with Metrolink and our partners to ensure cost increases are minimized, while seeking external revenue.
Operational cost of Metrolink service continues to grow as the system ages, track-sharing arrangements with BNSF are revised, and new air quality requirements are implemented.
On Track
One to Watch
