VOLUME 20 - NO. 3
MARCH 2010
CONTENTS Pages Figures 1-6
1
Monetary Aggregates
2
Commercial Banks Assets and Liabilities
2
Commercial Banks Deposits and Loans
2
Interest Rates (Selected)
3
Securities
4
Instalment Credit
4
Near-Banks
4
Building Societies
4
Inflation Rates
4
Actual Production
4
Stock Market Activities
4
External Trade
5
Tourism
5
Balance of Payments
5
BOJ Net International Reserves
7
Foreign Exchange
7
Reviews on Balance of Payments
9
 2010 Bank of Jamaica
Nethersole Place Kingston Jamaica
Telephone: (876) 922 0750-9 Fax: (876) 922 0854 E-mail: library@boj.org.jm Internet: www.boj.org.jm ISSN 1018-9084
SELECTED ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Figure 1
Figure 2
Per Cent
Monthly Inflation Rates Mar 2009 - Mar 2010
BOJ Net International Reserves Mar 2009 - Mar 2010
2.5
2,500
2.0
2,000
US$MN
1.5 1.0
1,500 1,000
0.5
500
0.0
0 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10
Mar -09 Apr -09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar -10
Months
Months
Figure 3
Figure 4 Commercial Banks' Weighted Interest Rates Mar 2009 - Mar 2010
Commercial Banks' LoansandDeposits Mar2009-Mar2010
20.0 17.5
450
15.0
400
Per Cent
350 J$BN
300 250 200
12.5 10.0 7.5 5.0
150 100
2.5
50
0.0 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 Jul-09 Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10
0 Mar-09
Apr-09
May-09
Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09
Sep-09
Oct-09
Nov-09
Dec-09
Jan-10
Feb-10
Mar-10
Months
Months Loans
Time Deposit Rate
Deposits
Loan Rate
Figure 5 RatesonBOJOMOInstrumentsand AnnualAverageInflationRates Mar2009-Mar2010
Money Supply (M1) Mar 2009 - Mar 2010 120 110
30.00
100
25.00
80
20.00
70
Rates
J$BN
90
60 50 40
15.00 10.00
30
5.00
20 10
0.00
0 Mar -09 Apr -09 M ay-09 Jun-09 Jul -09
A ug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10
Feb-10 M ar -10
Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09
Jul-09
Aug-09 Sep-09 Oct-09 Nov-09 Dec-09 Jan-10 Feb-10 Mar-10
Months
Mo n t h s
Money Supply (M1)
Curr with Public
Demand Depo sits
30-day
60-day
90-day
180-day
365-day
Ann.Avg.Infl.
120-day
1
1.
MONETARY AGGREGATES (J$mn.) Local and Foreign Currency Money Supply (M1).................................................... (a) Currency with the Public...................................... (b) Demand Deposits (adj.)***.................................. Quasi-Money..................................................................... (a) Time................................................................. (b) Savings............................................................. Money Supply (M2).................................................... Domestic Credit .................................................................
Feb 2010+ 106,978.17 40,772.43 66,205.74 229,904.18 56,415.79 173,488.39 336,882.35 356,167.95
Mar 2010 100,186.87 39,321.54 60,865.33 225,776.74 54,404.47 171,372.27 325,963.61 319,657.25
Local Currency Mar 2009 Money Supply (M1)......................................................... 85,512.95 (a) Currency with the Public..................................... 36,847.78 (b) Demand Deposits (adj.)***................................ 48,665.17 Quasi-Money.................................................................... 117,330.40 (a) Time........................................................................ 27,099.44 (b) Savings.................................................................. 90,230.96 Money Supply (M2)........................................................ 202,843.35 Domestic Credit ................................................................ 235,069.50
Feb 2010 94,448.90 40,772.43 53,716.47 123,107.35 27,255.44 95,851.91 217,596.25 262,456.05
Mar 2010 88,654.98 39,321.54 49,333.44 120,525.99 26,340.81 94,185.18 209,180.97 246,316.91
3.67 6.71 1.37 2.72 -2.80 4.38 3.12 4.78
Base Money................................................................
Mar 2009 71,202.56
Feb 2010 76,862.48
Mar 2010 77,322.45
8.60
II. COMMERCIAL BANKS (J$mn.) * Assets & Liabilities (J$mn.)**....................................
Mar 2009 572,720.30
Feb 2010 590,617.67
Mar 2010 591,766.53
3.33
Loans**....................................................................... Agriculture.............................................................. Manufacturing........................................................ Construction & Land Development.......................... Mining............................................................................ Tourism.......................................................................... Transport, Storage & Communication...................... Consumer-Oriented................................................ Government Services................................................... Other.......................................................................
259,146.68 4,529.66 9,207.18 15,115.80 634.14 44,189.67 12,376.85 133,749.95 34,294.15 5,049.28
253,568.12 6,222.83 9,035.63 16,894.82 353.77 38,871.14 7,615.04 131,340.67 36,977.31 6,256.91
256,993.67 6,293.74 9,088.57 16,962.76 421.55 38,304.47 9,582.81 132,733.30 37,534.26 6,072.21
-0.83 38.95 -1.29 12.22 -33.52 -13.32 -22.57 -0.76 9.45 20.26
Feb 2010 376,280.64 320,402.85 72,091.62 183,505.46 64,805.77
Mar 2010 378,413.53 312,843.20 71,299.76 181,159.17 60,384.27
6.93 2.24 -1.82 4.11 1.70
Mar 2009 DEPOSITS.................................................................. 353,880.53 Private Sector (including overseas residents)......... 306,003.23 Time................................................................... 72,622.64 Savings.............................................................. 174,004.95 Demand............................................................. 59,375.64
* ** ***
2
% Change p.a.
Mar 2009 96,779.18 36,847.78 59,931.40 220,896.91 55,817.66 165,079.25 317,676.09 344,805.27
3.52 6.71 1.56 2.21 -2.53 3.81 2.61 -7.29
Government............................................................ Time................................................................... Savings.............................................................. Demand.............................................................
29,322.99 1,727.93 2,927.34 24,667.72
20,998.61 1,420.65 2,383.83 17,194.13
31,324.70 1,372.29 2,240.90 27,711.51
6.83 -20.58 -23.45 12.34
Public Entities......................................................... Time................................................................... Savings.............................................................. Demand.............................................................
7,814.36 3,235.55 2,315.28 2,263.53
15,777.15 8,474.49 3,850.18 3,452.48
19,749.44 7,618.76 6,635.23 5,495.45
152.73 135.47 186.58 142.78
PanCaribbean Commercial Bank began operations in June 2008 Includes provision for loan losses; and excludes loans acquired by FINSAC. Excludes Deposits of Government, Public Entities, Financial Institutions and Non Residents
II.
COMMERCIAL BANKS (J$mn.) (Cont'd) Mar 2009 Spec. & O. F. Insts.................................................. 10,739.95 Time................................................................. 2,056.36 Savings............................................................. 2,485.14 Demand............................................................ 6,198.45
Feb 2010 19,102.03 4,404.78 1,583.20 13,114.05
Mar 2010 14,496.19 3,577.24 1,828.42 9,090.53
Current Account Balances with BOJ (J$mn)..........
Mar 2009 146.83
Feb 2010 1,298.55
Mar 2010 622.76
LIQUIDITY (Average) % Actual Liquid Assets Ratio...................................... Cash................................................................. Deposits with B.O.J......................................... Treasury Bills................................................... Local Registered Stocks................................... Other................................................................ Statutory Requirement.............................................
Mar 2009 38.70 2.47 14.29 0.30 1.42 20.22 28.00
Feb 2010 36.39 2.76 14.64 0.30 1.08 17.61 28.00
Mar 2010 42.10 2.81 14.35 0.26 0.97 23.71 28.00
III. SELECTED INTEREST RATES (%) COMMERCIAL BANKS (Domestic Currency) Mar 2009 Fixed Deposits (J$100,000 & over) 3-6 months.......................................................... 7.30-16.33 9-12 months........................................................ 7.00-18.11 Call Deposits...................................................... 7.00-13.00 Average Savings Deposits ....................................... 5.89 Average Loan Rate.................................................. 22.34 Average Inter-bank Rate ........................................... 8.29
Feb 2010
Mar 2010
5.75-9.82 6.25-10.13 6.00-10.00 4.13 21.40 7.43
5.35-9.82 5.00-10.13 3.00-9.00 4.09 21.51 6.57
Weighted Fixed Deposits Rate............................... Weighted Loan Rate................................................
Mar 2009 6.99 16.58
Feb 2010 5.82 16.28
Mar 2010 5.41 16.47
G.O.J. Treasury Bills (Weighted Average) Yield 2 Months:........................................................ 3 Months:........................................................ 6 Months:........................................................ 9 Months:........................................................ 12 Months:........................................................
Mar 2009 20.51 21.77 -
Feb 2010 10.63 11.01 -
Mar 2010 10.18 10.49 -
BOJ Open Market Rates (%) 30-Day ..................................................................... 60-Day ..................................................................... 90-Day ..................................................................... 120-Days .................................................................. 180-Days ................................................................. 365-Days .................................................................
Mar 2009 17.00 17.50 20.00 20.20 21.50 24.00
Feb 2010 10.00 -
Mar 2010 10.00 -
COMMERCIAL BANKS (Foreign Currency) Mar 2009 Fixed Deposits (Under US$100,000) 1-3 months............................................................... 1.00-4.85 3-6 months.......................................................... 1.00-5.35 6-12 months........................................................ 1.00-5.85 Fixed Deposits (US$100,000 & Over) 1-3 months.......................................................... 1.00-5.60 3-6 months.......................................................... 1.00-6.10 6-12 months........................................................ 1.00-6.60 Average Loan Rates ................................................ 11.43 Average Savings .......................................................... 1.93 + Revised
% Change p.a.
34.97 73.96 -26.43 46.66
` Feb 2010
Mar 2010
1.00-3.15 1.00-3.45 1.00-3.95
1.00-2.95 1.00-3.20 1.00-3.70
1.00-4.70 1.00-5.00 1.00-5.50 10.43 1.45
1.00-4.45 1.00-4.75 1.00-5.25 10.43 1.31
3
Mar 2009 201,936.09
Feb 2010 177.17
Mar 2010 168.10
-99.92
GOJ Treasury Bills..................................................... BOJ Open Market Operations 1/..............................
Mar 2009 4,094.50 119,337.59
Feb 2010 3,945.86 107,973.70
Mar 2010 4,000.00 121,349.20
-2.31 1.69
INSTALMENT CREDIT (J$mn.) (Banks & Near-Banks) Total Credit Outstanding......................................... New Business............................................................
Mar 2009
Feb 2010
Mar 2010
30,868.91 1,114.91
28,847.01 948.46
28,975.28 1,434.14
NEAR-BANKS (J$mn.)**** (Merchant Banks, Trust Com. & Finance Houses) Assets/Liabilties.................................................................. Loans Outstanding.............................................................. Total Deposits......................................................................
Mar 2009
Feb 2010
Mar 2010
34,729.51 10,572.36 14,770.96
32,639.79 9,458.94 12,185.99
32,338.83 9,297.72 12,280.62
-6.88 -12.06 -16.86
Loans......................................................................... Agriculture......................................................................... Manufacturing................................................. Construction & Land Development................................ Mining, Quarrying & Processing.................. Tourism........................................................... Transport, Storage & Communication............................... Consumer Oriented............................................................ Government Services........................................................ Other....................................................................................
10,572.36 23.57 387.62 2,655.36 53.82 516.15 373.86 5,774.27 130.96 656.75
9,458.94 12.01 340.68 2,637.65 29.82 451.36 243.63 5,175.08 124.37 444.34
9,297.72 11.82 335.35 2,620.93 28.36 446.21 142.94 5,155.35 115.64 441.12
-12.06 -49.85 -13.48 -1.30 -47.31 -13.55 -61.77 -10.72 -11.70 -32.83
Mar 2009 27.46 28.00
Feb 2010 30.13 28.00
Mar 2010 30.14 28.00
VII. BUILDING SOCIETIES (J$mn.) (members & associate members) Assets/Liabilities.............................................. Loan Balances.................................................. Savings Funds..................................................
Mar 2009
Feb 2010
Mar 2010
147,428.81 79,651.46 100,713.58
161,441.86 85,233.72 110,314.97
161,745.67 85,375.38 111,242.66
VIII. INFLATION Consumer Price Index (Dec. 2006 = 100).............. Monthly Rate (%)................................................ Calendar Year to Date (%)........................................ Fiscal Year to Date (%) ............................................
Mar 2009 138.2 0.8 1.3 12.4
Feb 2010 155.9 2.2 3.6 12.8
Mar 2010 156.6 0.5 4.1 13.3
IX.
ACTUAL PRODUCTION ('000) Crude Bauxite (tonnes).......................................... Alumina (tonnes).................................................. Sugar (tonnes)........................................................ Banana Exports (tonnes).........................................
Mar 2009 107.05 225.37 36.02 0.00
Feb 2010 314.74 111.18 30.45 0.00
Mar 2010 393.97 116.48 32.02 0.00
268.02 -48.32 -11.10 -
X.
STOCK MARKET ACTIVITIES Index**............................................................ Volume Traded (mn.)***....................................... Ordinary Shares............................................. Block Transactions........................................
Mar 2009 79,022.64 498.02 469.42 28.60
Feb 2010 79,094.75 64.20 64.20 0.00
Mar 2010 86,010.60 249.14 249.14 0.00
8.84 -49.97 -46.93 -
V.
VI.
Liquid Assets Ratio (average) %............................. Statutory Requirement...........................................
4
% Change p.a.
SECURITIES (J$mn.) (outstanding balances) GOJ Local Registered Stock.....................................
IV.
1/ As at May 2005 the Bank of Jamaica no longer issues Reverse Repurchases No Production ** As at end of month *** Monthly values **** As at June 2008 PanCaribbean Merchant Bank ended operations
-6.13 28.63
9.71 7.19 10.45 13.31
X.
STOCK MARKET ACTIVITIES (cont'd) Value of Stocks Traded (J$mn.)***.................................... Ordinary Shares..................................................... Block Transactions................................................ Advance/Decline Ratio***................................................
Mar 2009 1,352.78 1,189.95 162.83 13/20
Feb 2010 744.31 744.31 0.00 26/12
Mar 2010 2,042.85 2,042.85 0.00 30/9
% Change
51.01 71.68 -
XI. EXTERNAL TRADE (US$mn.) 1. EXPORTS (a) Major Traditional Exports........................................ Bauxite.................................................................... Alumina.................................................................. Sugar....................................................................... Bananas................................................................. (b) Other Traditional Exports........................................ (c) Non-Traditional Exports........................................ (d) Re-exports............................................................... General Merchandise Exports............................................ (e) Freezone Exports.......................................................... (f) Goods Procured in Ports............................................. Total Goods Exports.............................................................
Jan-Dec 2008 1,449.28 114.50 1,230.49 104.25 0.04 80.64 939.64 62.25 2,531.81 60.25 151.81 2,743.87
2. IMPORTS (by S.I.T.C.) (a) Food........................................................................ (b) Beverage & Tobacco................................................ (c) Crude Material.......................................................... (d) Mineral Fuel ............................................................... (e) Animal & Vegetable Oil............................................ (f) Chemicals.................................................................. (g) Manufactured Goods.................................................. (h) Machinery & Transportation..................................... (i) Miscellaneous Manufactured Goods........................ (j) Miscellaeous Commodities........................................ General Merchandise Imports Freezone Imports........................................................... Goods Procured in Ports................................................. Total Goods Imports....................................................
886.31 93.49 73.43 3,354.79 53.95 950.99 883.56 1,264.25 681.97 118.25 8,360.99 20.34 143.50 8,524.83
802.33 79.86 54.87 1,396.61 33.86 740.26 555.82 820.22 461.56 120.31 5,065.70 16.14 92.95 5,174.79
-83.93 -13.63 -18.56 -1,958.18 -20.09 -210.73 -327.74 -444.03 -220.41 2.06 -3,295.29 -4.20 -50.55 -3,350.04
Trade Balance................................................................
-5,780.96
-3,788.65
1,992.31
XII. TOURISM Tourist Arrivals ('000).................................................... Stop Overs...................................................................... Foreign Nationals..................................................... Non-Resident Jamaicans.................................. Cruise.............................................................................
Dec 2008 303.59 179.62 156.29 23.33 123.97
Dec 2009 274.12 181.81 158.80 23.01 92.31
% Change -9.71 1.22 1.61 -1.37 -25.54
XIII. BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (US$mn.) Balance of Payments (Calendar) 1. Current Account................................................... A. Goods balance................................................ Exports (f.o.b.).............................................. Imports (f.o.b.).............................................. B.
*** Monthly values 1/ Provisional + Revised
Service Balance.............................................. Transportation........................................... Travel........................................................ Other Services............................................
Jan-Dec 2008 -2,793.2 -4,802.9 2,743.9 7,546.8 428.1 -644.7 1,707.7 -634.9
Jan-Dec 2009 525.75 85.41 368.00 72.33 0.01 90.54 530.48 77.02 1,223.79 57.35 105.00 1,386.14
Jan-Dec 2009 -912.4 -3,123.4 1,386.1 4,509.5 751.8 -373.5 1,721.7 -596.4
Change -923.53 -29.09 -862.49 -31.92 -0.03 9.90 -409.16 14.77 -1,308.02 -2.90 -46.81 -1,357.73
Change 1,880.8 1,679.5 -1,357.8 -3,037.3 323.8 271.2 14.0 38.5
5
Balance of Payments (Calendar) (Cont'd) Jan-Dec 2008
Change
C. Income................................................................ Compensation of Employees........................... Investment Income..........................................
-568.2 83.7 -651.9
-586.3 58.6 -644.9
-18.1 -25.1 7.0
D. Current Transfers............................................. Official...................................................... Private.......................................................
2,149.8 100.7 2,049.1
2,045.5 148.7 1,896.8
-104.3 48.0 -152.3
2. Capital and Financial Account.................................. A. Capital Account................................................ Capital Transfers............................................. Official.................................................. Private................................................... Acq./Disp. of non-produced non-fin. assets....
2,793.2 18.1 18.1 48.6 -30.5 0.0
912.4 10.4 10.4 45.3 -34.9 0.0
-1,880.8 -7.7 -7.7 -3.3 -4.4 0.0
B. Financial Account.............................................. Other Official Investment............................. Other Private Investment.............................. (incl. errors & omissions) Reserves................................................
2,775.1 518.6 2,151.7
902.0 249.4 609.0
-1,873.1 -269.2 -1,542.7
104.8
43.6
Apr-Dec 2008/2009 -2,281.1 -3,730.6 1,965.0 5,695.6
Apr-Dec 2009/2010 -747.1 -2,374.3 1,037.0 3,411.3
Service Balance.............................................. Transportation........................................... Travel........................................................ Other Services............................................
211.2 -511.0 1,185.7 -463.5
491.3 -290.5 1,220.1 -438.3
280.1 220.5 34.4 25.2
C. Income......................................................... Compensation of Employees........................ Investment Income..........................................
-394.5 77.8 -472.3
-435.8 57.0 -492.8
-41.3 -20.8 -20.5
D. Current Transfers......................................... Official...................................................... Private.......................................................
1,632.8 74.4 1,558.4
1,571.7 116.8 1,454.9
-61.1 42.4 -103.5
2. Capital and Financial Account............................... A. Capital Account................................................ Capital Transfers............................................. Official.................................................. Private................................................... Acq./Disp. of non-produced non-fin. assets
2,281.1 -2.6 -2.6 19.1 -21.7 0.0
747.1 -21.7 -21.7 3.4 -25.0 0.0
-1,534.0 -19.1 -19.1 -15.7 -3.3 0.0
2,283.7 513.9 1,459.4
768.8 429.1 440.5
-1,514.9 -84.8 -1,018.9
310.4
-100.8
Balance of Payments (Fiscal) 1. Current Account................................................. A. Goods balance............................................. Exports (f.o.b.)............................................ Imports (f.o.b.).............................................. B.
B.
6
Jan-Dec 2009
Financial Account....................................... Other Official Investment......................... Other Private Investment.......................... (incl. errors & omissions) Reserves................................................
1,534.0 1,356.3 -928.0 -2,284.3
% Mar 2010 Change p.a.
XIV. BOJ NET INTERNATIONAL RESERVES (US$mn.) BOJ Net International Reserves (US$mn.)................ Gross Foreign Assets.............................................. Gross Foreign Liabilities........................................ Estimated Gross Reserves in Weeks of Goods Imports.......... Estimated Gross Reserves in Weeks of Goods and Services Imports...........................................................
Mar 2009
Feb 2010
1,628.58 1,663.44 34.86
1,559.71 2,271.75 712.04
1,751.88 2,414.42 662.54
12.19
24.95
26.51
9.20
17.51
18.61
XV. FOREIGN EXCHANGE DEVELOPMENTS (US$mn.) * Combined Foreign Exchange Trading Foreign Exchange Purchases (spot)............................ Foreign Exchange Sales (spot)...................................
Mar 2009
Feb 2010
Mar 2010
618.74 615.53
690.56 638.33
840.60 835.31
Mar 2009
Feb 2010
Mar 2010
Commercial Banks Balances................................... "A" Accounts 1/....................................................... "B" Accounts ........................................................... Other.............................................................................
1,625.64 167.29 0.00 1,458.35
1,771.76 143.84 0.14 1,627.78
1,741.75 143.90 0.14 1,597.71
7.14 -13.98 9.56
F.I.As Balance................................................................ "A" Accounts 1/....................................................... "B" Accounts ............................................................ Other..............................................................................
132.77 70.35 0.14 62.28
96.35 42.75 0.04 53.56
97.14 42.72 0.05 54.37
-26.84 -39.28 -64.29 -12.70
Building Societies Balances......................................... "A" Accounts 1/........................................................ "B" Accounts ............................................................. Other ...........................................................................
455.84 199.77 54.26 201.81
494.07 216.70 57.03 220.34
493.39 219.25 57.47 216.67
8.24 9.75 5.92 7.36
Total Foreign Currency Deposits (US$mn.)............
2,214.25
2,362.18
2,332.28
5.33
Total Foreign Currency Loans (US$mn.)................ Commercial Banks................................................ F.I.As ................................................................... Building Societies.................................................
1,586.52 1,445.79 60.41 80.32
1,514.00 1,377.97 50.69 85.34
1,514.47 1,378.31 49.00 87.16
-4.54 -4.67 -18.89 8.52
Foreign Currency Deposit Balances of Authorised Dealers (US$mn.)
* Foreign Currency balances represent the US dollar equivalent of the value of total transactions in major international currencies 1/ 'A' Accounts are tax free Foreign Currency Accounts held by non-residents + Revised
7.57 45.15 1,800.57
35.86 35.71
7
8
London Interbank Offer Rate (LIBOR) Eurodollars (%)
3 months............................................................. 6 months............................................................. U.S. Prime Rate (end of period) (%)..........................
Mar 2009 1.51 1.68 3.25
Feb 2010 0.60 0.91 3.25
Mar 2010 0.58 0.88 3.25
Selling Exchange Rates (end period) US$1.00 = J$...................................................... Can. $1.00 = J$.................................................... U.K. Pound = J$................................................... Euro = J$**.........................................................
Mar 2009 88.82 71.97 129.02 116.84
Feb 2010 89.75 84.72 137.14 121.36
Mar 2010 89.51 88.06 135.07 120.16
Caricom Selling Exchange Rates** T.T. $1 = J$......................................................... Bdos. $1 = J$......................................................... Guy. $1 = J$....................................................... E.C. $1 = J$........................................................
14.15 44.38 0.44 32.87
14.15 44.87 0.45 33.24
14.07 44.76 0.45 33.16
** Indicative Rates
JAMAICA: BALANCE OF PAYMENTS DEVELOPMENTS
DECEMBER 2009
DECEMBER 2009 Provisional data indicate that the current account deficit widened by US$52.0 million in December 2009, relative to the deficit in December 2008 (see Table). This deterioration stemmed primarily from a contraction in export earnings, mainly related to a US$43.9 million (59.3 per cent) decline in value of alumina exports. The performance of alumina exports continued to reflect the impact of the scaling back of activities in the mining sector as well as a decline of 7.3 per cent in average realized price of the ore during the month. The impact of the fall in exports was partly offset by a US$35.9 million reduction in spending on imports, mainly related to contractions of US$15.1 million (17.4 per cent) and US$10.5 (14.3 per cent) in machinery & transport equipment and chemicals imports, respectively. The impact of the reduction in spending on these imports was partially offset by expansions of US$49.8 million (70.6 per cent) and US$19.1 million (39.6 per cent) in spending on fuel and miscellaneous manufactured goods imports, respectively. Fuel imports reflected a 70.9 per cent increase in the price of oil on the international market in December 2009, relative to December 2008. A decline in net travel receipts was the main influence on a reduction in the surplus on the services account. For the review month, the deficit on the income account narrowed by US$33.7 million, mainly reflecting a reduction in the profit remittances of the direct investment companies. Concurrently, there was an increase in the surplus on the current transfers account due largely to a 2.2 per cent rise in gross remittance inflows. With regard to financing, net inflows from official and private investments were insufficient to offset the deficits on the current and capital accounts. As a result, the NIR declined by US$75.8 million for the month.
January – December 2009 There was a reduction of US$1,880.5 million in the current account deficit for the calender year 2009, relative to that for 2008. This improved performance was due largely to a contraction in the merchandise trade deficit , stemming primarily from a decline of US$1,958.2 million (58.4 per cent) in the value of mineral fuel imports. There were also declines in the value of all the other categories of imports, with the exception of miscellaneous commodities. The impact of the contraction in imports on the merchandise trade deficit was partly offset by lower earnings from major traditional exports, particularly alumina, as well as non-traditional exports, mainly ethanol.
9
For the review period, there was also an improvement in the services sub-account. The increase in the surplus on the services sub-account resulted from a fall in freight and insurance charges, associated with the reduction in the value of imports. Net earnings from travel also increased, primarily reflecting a decline of 19.3 per cent in spending by Jamaicans travelling abroad. The impact of the improvement in the merchandise trade and services sub-accounts on the current account deficit was, however, partly offset by an increase in the deficit on the income sub-account, as well as lower net current transfers. The deterioration in the income account was related to contractions in inflows associated with compensation to employees. A contraction of 11.3 per cent in gross remittance inflows was responsible for the decline in current tranfers. In relation to financing, net official and private investment inflows were insufficient to finance the current account deficit. As a result, there was an increase of US$43.6 million in the NIR for the year.
10
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS SUMMARY (US$M)
December
December
Jan-Dec
1/
Jan-Dec
2008
2009
Change
2008
2009
Change
-45.7 -246.6 138.9 385.5
-97.7 -331.3 90.1 421.4
-52.0 -84.7 -48.8 35.9
-2,793.2 -4,802.9 2,743.9 7,546.8
-912.4 -3,123.4 1,386.1 4,509.5
1,880.8 1,679.5 -1,357.8 -3,037.3
B. SERVICES BALANCE Transportation Travel Other Services
102.8 -32.5 194.4 -59.1
97.0 -34.7 188.9 -57.2
-5.8 2.2 -5.5 1.9
428.1 -644.7 1,707.7 -634.9
751.8 -373.5 1,721.7 -596.4
323.7 271.2 14.0 38.5
C. INCOME Compensation of employees Investment Income
-90.9 6.7 -97.6
-57.2 5.7 -62.9
33.7 -1.0 34.7
-568.2 83.7 -651.9
-586.3 58.6 -644.9
18.1 -25.1 7.0
D. CURRENT TRANSFERS Official Private
189.0 9.3 179.7
193.8 9.0 184.8
4.8 -0.3 5.1
2,149.8 100.7 2,049.0
2,045.5 148.7 1,896.8
-104.3 48.0 -152.2
2. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT A. CAPITAL ACCOUNT a. Capital Transfers Official Private
45.7 -2.6 -2.6 0.0 -2.6
97.7 -2.2 -2.2 0.0 -2.2
52.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.4
2,793.2 18.1 18.1 48.6 -30.5
912.4 -1,880.8 10.4 -7.7 10.4 -7.7 45.3 - 3.3 -34.9 -4.4
b. Acq./disposal of non-prod. non-fin'l assets B. FINANCIAL ACCOUNT Other official investment Other private investment 2/ Reserves
0.0 48.3 -2.8 30.0 21.1
0.0 99.9 16.4 7.7 75.8
0.0 51.7 19.2 22.2
0.0 2,775.1 518.6 2,151.7 104.8
0.0 902.0 249.4 609.0 43.6
1. CURRENT ACCOUNT A. GOODS BALANCE Exports (f.o.b.) Imports (f.o.b.)
0.0 -1,873.1 -269.2 -1,542.7
1/ Provisional 2/ Includes errors & omissions
11