A new near-real-time global database on CO2 emissions from air transport Daniel Clarke (daniel.clarke@oecd.org) and Bram Groenewoud (bram.groenewoud@oecd.org), Statistics and Data Directorate, OECD
A
ir transport is vital for international trade, tourism and employment, but it also produces carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that contribute to global warming, and these emissions are expected to increase rapidly after the COVID-19 pandemic. The OECD has developed a new database using a near real-time data source from the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) to produce estimates of CO2 emissions from air transport. The new estimates have global coverage and ensure a consistent allocation of CO2 emissions across countries. The data and methods are described in a recently published OECD Working Paper. These new statistics will help monitor aviation emissions as well as the impact of technological developments and policy measures to curb them. They will help inform better policy actions for a low-carbon transition of air transport and the green economic recovery. Emissions from air transport grew rapidly before the pandemic… Before the COVID-19 pandemic, air transport – particularly international passenger travel – was one
of the fastest growing sources of global CO2 emissions (Figure 1). In 2019, global CO2 emissions from domestic and international aviation were roughly similar to the total energy-related CO2 emissions of Japan and accounted for 5% of all energy-related CO2 emissions from OECD countries. …and are now rising again Although the pandemic had a significant negative impact on international passenger travel, recent data suggests that emissions from air transport are now increasing again (Figure 2). Moreover, projections by the International Transport Forum show that, in the absence of accelerated technological developments and more ambitious policy measures, aviation-related CO2 emissions will increase by two and a half times between 2015 and 2050. The impact of the pandemic on air transport emissions can be seen clearly in the new OECD statistics. These are more frequent and timely than statistics from other sources: they are monthly, and estimates are published within three months. The Working Paper uses the OECD estimates to report on the rebound following the early
Figure 1: Aviation-related CO2 emissions have increased much faster than other energy-related CO2 emissions in OECD countries Aviation- and other energy-related CO2 emissions in OECD countries, 1971-2019, 2010 = 100
Source: IEA (2022), "Detailed CO2 estimates", IEA CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion Statistics: Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Energy (database), authors’ calculations.
Issue No. 76, July 2022 - The OECD Statistics Newsletter
9
