Introduction

This diagnostic report provides an overview of the use and management of water resources in Central Asia over the period from 1998 to 2019. The previous diagnostic study was conducted within the framework of the United Nations Special Programme for the Economies of Central Asia (SPECA) in 2001, mainly building on materials provided by SIC ICWC and representatives of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan. The 2001 Diagnostic Report aimed at jointly developing a regional strategy for the rational and efficient use of water and energy resources. 1 Although the Executive Committee of the Interstate Council for the Aral Sea Problems (forbearer of IFAS) developed with the World Bank’s support “Fundamental Provisions of Water Management Strategy in the Aral Sea Basin” 2 in 1998, and the Board of Interstate Fund of saving the Aral Sea (IFAS) have approved “Main objectives and focus areas of the rational water use strategy” 3 , UNECE and UNESCAP hoped that recommendations of that diagnostic study would contribute to a joint strategy of efficient water and energy use. However, attempts to find symbiosis between energy and water resources have largely failed. Only some steps towards this direction has been made, for example, by signing Agreement between the Governments of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Uzbekistan on the use of water and energy in the Syr Darya River Basin (Bishkek, March 1998), to which Tajikistan joined in 1999, by drafting recommendations for the improvement of water and energy regulation and management in the Syr Darya Basin under ADB RETA 4 and by initiating discussions on establishing a water and energy consortium. It is evident from many analytical studies on regional water and energy issues that significantly better interactions between the region’s countries on multisectoral water use are paramount, especially in the context of climate change, peacebuilding in Afghanistan, and demographic and economic changes in the region.

Against this background, the specific objectives of this report include:

to assess changes in water and land use and management in Central Asia over the past 20 years; to identify future water challenges, development trends and needs for the long-term rational use of water resources and irrigated land; to assess the progress made with implementation of the “Fundamental Provisions of Water Management Strategy in the Aral Sea Basin” and recommendations of the 2001 Diagnostic Report; to prepare a database of key information and indicators to support of the Diagnostic Report.

1 Diagnostic Report for the preparation of the regional strategy for rational and efficient use of water resources in Central Asia. www.cawater-info.net/library/rus/water-rus.pdf

2 IFAS (1998) “Fundamental Provisions of Water Management Strategy in the Aral Sea Basin”. www.cawaterinfo.net/library/rus/hist/regstr/pages/002.htm 3 Decision ofthe Board of Interstate Fund of saving the Aral Sea “On main objectives and focus areas of the rational water use strategy”, 12 March 1998

4 ADB RETA 6163: Improvement of Shared Water Resources Management in Central Asia. http://www.cawaterinfo.net/reta/index.htm

The diagnostic report was prepared by the Scientific-Information Center of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (SIC ICWC) under the leadership of Prof. V. Dukhovniy, D. Ziganshina (PhD) and V. Sokolov (candidate of technical sciences), with contributions from country representatives: Prof. S. Ibatullin (Kazakhstan), Ch. Uzakbaev (Kyrgyzstan), Prof. Ya. Pulatov (Tajikistan), and a representative of Turkmenistan. Following experts have been leading work on the thematic sections of the report: A. Sorokin, N. Mirzaev and O. Eshtchanov (water resources); Sh. Muminov (economic aspects); V. Dukhovniy and O. Eshtchanov (environmental aspects, analysis of water management and future outlook). V. Sokolov made an assessment of implementation of the “Fundamental Provisions of Water Management Strategy in the Aral Sea Basin” and of recommendations of the 2001 Diagnostic Report. A database was prepared by D. Sorokin.

The team of authors appreciates comments and remarks submitted on the draft report version by water agencies, research institutes, universities and regional organizations in CA countries: (1) Republic of Kazakhstan - Ministry of Ecology, Geology and Natural Resources (Vice Minister S.Gromov); Ministry of Agriculture (Head of Hydrogeological meliorative field office K. Anzelm); International Training Center for the Safety of Hydrotechnical Constructions (Prof. S. Ibatullin); Eurasian National University named by L. Gumilyov (Dr. Prof. A. Zauirbek); (2) Kyrgyz Republic –Agency for Water Resources at the Government of KR (Director K. Tashtanaliev); (3) Republic of Tajikistan –Institute of Water Problems, Hydropower and Ecology at Academy of Sciences RT (Director Prof. Z. Kobuliev); (4) Republic of Uzbekistan –Ministry of Water Management (First Deputy Minister B. Ruzibaev); Ministry of Housing and Communal Services (First Deputy Minister S. Saifnazarov); 5) Regional Mountain Center of CA (Executive Director I. Dairov) In May 2020, the report was revised accordingly.

Scope of work

The Report views Central Asia as the region covering five post-Soviet states –Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Relations of Central Asia with the Chinese Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Russian Siberia and, particularly, Afghanistan will be addressed to a certain extent as well. The Report pays close attention to and provide detailed analysis of the Aral Sea basin. Given territorial, historical and hydrological ties with the region, the Report also include analysis of Afghanistan, especially its northern part which is located in the basin of the Amu Darya River and its former tributaries.

The Report analyzes development dynamics since 1980 till 2018. Moreover, the period before gaining independence is shown for comparison with subsequent changes. Rough forecasts of regional development, particularly in the water sector are given till 2035-2040.