Cummins Inc.: Jeremy Harsin, Global Construction Market Director

Diesel has a Long Life in Off-Highway Applications

The duty cycles of off-highway equipment, coupled with the remote operational nature of many machines, will make diesel difficult to replace.

responses submitted by Jeremy Harsin, Global Construction Market Director, Cummins Inc.

Diesel, Electric & Other Power Alternatives

How, if at all, do you see the role of diesel engines evolving in the coming years?

In the off-highway space diesel still has a long runway. Duty cycles of off-highway equipment, coupled with the remote operational nature of many machines, will make diesel difficult to replace. We expect to see trends that push the power density envelope of diesel engines to enable further downsizing, trends for cleaner emissions that push the technology, and an increased focus on things like renewable fuels.

What alternative fuels do you foresee entering the heavy equipment industry in the next 5-10 years?

Starting with diesel IC (internal combustion) engines, it is possible to see increased usage of biofuels such as HVO100; pockets of this are happening already today. Currently, some of the Cummins Off-Highway engines are approved for B20 diesel and paraffinic fuel. When you talk compact construction, while still limited by infrastructure availability outside certain settings, there has been a trend for electrification. Adoption rates in the next 5-10 years, again outside some specific market settings, are likely to remain low with the rate decreasing as you increase in equipment size. Hydrogen is also emerging as an alternative fuel of interest, either in fuel cell or spark ignited form. Similar to electrification, the hydrogen infrastructure will also take time to develop. Packaging hydrogen on a machine also requires a different process than installing a diesel engine and it will take time to ensure that is done well. Also similar to electrification there will probably be pockets that adopt, highlighting the fragmented nature and diversity of the off-highway market. Metal machinery is not easily redesigned, particularly thick metal like what is found on construction equipment. It is likely that OEMs will delay the investment of full machine redesign in many cases until the adoption picture becomes clearer, meaning there could be a period of time before optimized alternative power chassis are available.

What new emissions regulations do you see on the horizon, and how might they impact future product development?

These vary by region of the world. Emission changes that are playing out in the short term include the recent India BSIV rollout for wheeled machinery, expected to follow with tracked equipment legislation and eventually BSV sometime mid-decade. China CSIV emissions have firmed at year end 2022; CSV emissions are looking like a later decade potential at this stage. Variations in emissions regulations for major markets mean bespoke investments for these key areas. For traditional lead emission markets like the U.S. and European regions, it is looking like later in the decade before those would be expected. Exactly what these future regulations will look like is speculative, but Cummins is participating in in-use testing programs to provide real-world results to legislators. Results received from industry players is expected to help shape what future regulations like EU Stage VI will look like.

Data, IoT & Connectivity

What will be the best use cases for the Internet of Things (IoT) and data in the coming years?

Driving informed decisions must be a primary outcome. Decisions regarding operations, repairs, utilization, etc. need to be realized to maximize the value of connectivity. When paired with well thought out aftermarket practices, even basic connectivity data can be leveraged to make big improvements to machine uptime. Contrary to on-highway equipment, when a construction machine breaks the field technician travels to the machine. Machines can be many hours from the nearest repair location so reduction of redundant travel allows technicians to be more efficient and shops to optimize their earning potential. Currently, these technicians often leave with minimal information about the actual problem; in the future, the technician should leave the shop equipped with appropriate parts and tooling to complete the repair. This is just scratching the surface of how connectivity data can be leveraged. As the industry evolves and you move into more proprietary data transfer things like prognostics come into focus. |

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