CONTENTS 02 How To Balance
Family And Football At Thanksgiving
04 An Idiots Guide To The College football playoff System
06 Is Live Betting Worth It?
20 Cold Weather NFL
Teams to Bet Against
22 Rules to Follow When Selecting a Sports Book
26 College Football
Playoffs and How to Bet Them
08 Top 11 NCAAF Rivalry
28 Top Ten College
10 Top 11 NFLy Rivalry
32 Top Ten NFL Football
12 What I Learned After
34 How to Throw the
Games
Games
Losing My Shirt
16 What is new and
exciting for Sports Betting and beyond?
18 When to Parlay the Side and total
Football Games
Games
Perfect Super Bowl Party
36 NFC Preview and Predictions
43 NFL Preview and Predictions
How To Balance Family
And Football
At Thanksgiving
I
t’s Thanksgiving and you know what that means – an annual tradition of balancing football, friends, family and feasting. Sounds like a full plate doesn’t it? Well I’m here to help you get your priorities straight and ensure a good day. The Thursday slate of games involves some major matchups. The Bears-Lions kick things off at 12:30pm EST, with the Eagles-Cowboys preparing for a Texas style shootout in the afternoon at 4:30pm EST. The night game is an absolute thriller as well, with the Niners and Seahawks grinding salt in their second matchup of the year. These are three games you don’t want to miss because they’re going to feature six of the best offenses in the league. I can’t speak to the defense of four of these teams because I don’t think that highly of any of them. What does that mean? Touchdowns, touchdowns and more touchdowns along with heavy hits in the night game. So what’s a guy to do when he has family commitments and tons of annoying guests coming over? IF YOU’RE HOSTING, PREPARE THE NIGHT BEFORE This is the simplest advice I can give you. Instead of running around the day-of, scrambling to peel potatoes, set the table, prep the salad and whatever else you need to do just get it all done the night before. This will allow you to brine the turkey overnight before you cook it as well, and give you ample time to slide in and out of the kitchen as you prepare the finest feast your family and friends have ever consumed. If you prep everything correctly, it should just be a matter of shoving things in the oven for prolonged periods of time and checking on them between quarters.
it’s for football fans only. Listen, you’re not going to be alone in your desire to eat up these matchups so make sure that everyone coming over knows what to do when they get there: park themselves in front of the TV and make a statement. “We’re here to watch football, eat and tolerate you people. In that order.” You don’t have to be mean about it, but send the message with the help of some friends. “Oh this is the football room?” You’re damn right it is. HALFTIME HUGS AND GLAD-HANDING Very rarely do the games actually overlap each other, and there’s plenty of breaks and lulls in the action. Between quarters and at halftime there’s a decent amount of time to get out there and say hi to everyone you need to. Hell, after touchdowns there’s at least 10 minutes before the next drive starts unless you have to watch the extra point and the kick-off for some dumb reason. Football might be your main motivator for being wherever you are in the first place, but your family won’t see it that way. That means developing a strategy from the get-go. Have your conversational questions pre-determined and scripted in your head: “Works going great, I’m working on this project with some great people. How are things with you?” You won’t be able to perfect the timing of everything, but at least you won’t rub people the wrong way while you’re rubbing shoulders with your loved ones. SIDE BETTING IS FUN FOR EVERYONE! Want to go next level with your Thanksgiving? Then make it all about football. The easiest way to do that if you’re not fans of the teams involved (and fantasy doesn’t count) is to get everyone to chip in a couple bucks on side bets like Who Scores The Next Touchdown or Will This Drive Result In Points For That Team. Get creative. Bonus points for getting the little kids involved because no matter what responsible parents say, children love gambling.
CLAIM THE TELEVISION If you’re still one of those lame wads that calls it a “man cave” then good for you, but whatever you title the dwelling your television resides in, make sure
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An Idiots Guide To The
College Football
Playoff System
I
nstead of hiding behind the BCS computer, the new college football playoffs will be decided by a 13-person committee made up of various reps from different sources. Five of these members are athletic directors at big schools, one is an acclaimed former sports writer, two are former coaches, one is a former Air Force superintendent and another is a former NCAA executive vice-president. The last one is – for whatever reason – Archie Manning, father of Eli and Peyton. Starting the week of October 28th, this committee will begin releasing a top-25 list, much like the polls that we are used to digesting every Monday morning. Other polls, like those found on ESPN, USA Today and the coach’s poll will be used for entertainment purposes so we all don’t lose our collective minds. The “official poll” will only take in to consideration the results of the 2014 season up until the relevant date.
To make the semi-finals, teams will be graded by the committee on their strength of schedule, head-to-head results, common opponents, conference championships and other factors that they’ll decide upon. It really feels like a “12 Angry Men” type of scenario is totally possible.
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Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
So what happens to the bowl games? Glad you asked! The Rose, Sugar, Orange, Fiesta, Cotton and Peach Bowls will rotate in pairs as venues for the playoff semi-finals. This year ONLY the Rose and Sugar Bowls will host the semifinals for all the marbles. The two winners of those Bowls will square off at AT&T Stadium on January 12th for the championship.
Another major rule is that there are no automatic bids for the playoffs. Technically, four teams from the SEC or the Pac-12 could sweep the entire thing. One way that the committee works around this is by recusing committee members with conference ties from voting on their own conferences.
Non-playoff bowl games will assume their regular conference matchups. So in non-playoff years, the bowl games will have the standard matchups we’re used to seeing: Rose Bowl (Big Ten vs. Pac12), Sugar Bowl (SEC vs. Big 12), Orange (ACC vs. whomever).
• Four teams from any conference make the semifinals
Since the playoff venues are predetermined, that also means that teams literally have to luck into a homefield advantage. It’s the concept of neutral territory at its finest. The big scheduling note is that all of the playoff rotation semifinal bowl games will be played on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day, so you better attend a party that has a damn TV and shake off that hangover so you’ll be fit for the task the day after. Staying sober might not be your best solution to all this madness.
So does that make sense? Here’s a quick recap:
• A thirteen person committee selects and ranks all the top teams in their own poll starting midseason (Oct. 28th) • The major bowls will rotate the hosting of the playoffs, while non-playoff bowls default back in to their contracted, conference vs. conference matchups • College football is awesome Now that you understand all of the above, you can seem like the smartest idiot at your next cocktail party. You’re welcome!
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Is Live
Betting Worth It? I
s live betting worth it? That might be the most intriguing question that we’ve come across at MyBookie.ag.
Live betting allows sports handicappers to make wagers in the middle of a game. For example, you could make wagers on a baseball game in the middle of the inning or before the next inning starts. This may seem like just another way to lose your money, but, in reality, when done responsibly live betting could be the most powerful tool in the sports handicappers’ arsenal. To understand live betting, one has to understand stock market day trading. The stock market day trader is looking for minimal changes in the daily price of a stock. He usually uses an investing instrument like options in order to take advantage of small changes in the price of that stock. It’s risky business because a change the other way can lead to disaster in the matter of minutes. In order to minimize risk, the stock market day trader does something called hedging. What is hedging? Hedging is simply spending money in order to lower the risk associated with a particular position. When it comes to our profession, betting on sporting events, live betting is the best way to hedge against a large position. It is also a good way to increase profits on a current position. Increasing profits on a current position via live betting When a Wall Street investor, day trader or not, opens a position on a stock, it is usually a very large position. That trader has key points in the stock’s price that 6
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
he’s looking at. For example, say Google stock is trading at $500 at any given time. The trader invests $10,000 into Google stock. The key number that he is looking for is $510. Once Google stock goes up to $510, he decides that he’s going to invest another $10,000. Let’s take that example and think about it in terms of sports betting. In our example, you, as the sports handicapper have opened a position on the St. Louis Cardinals at -120 versus the Pittsburgh Pirates. You’ve invested $120, meaning that if the Cardinals win, you’ll make $100 in profit. After the three innings, and before the fourth inning, the Cardinals are up 2 to 0. The odds are now Cardinals -185 in live betting. If you really believe that the Cardinals coast to a victory, you could invest another $185 for another $100 in profit.
Furthermore, you don’t have a lot of faith in St. Louis’s middle relief. You made the wager on the Cardinals because you really believed that the starting pitcher would go at least 7 or 8 innings. What you could do with live betting is hedge your position on the Cardinals by betting on Pittsburgh. If the Pirates are at +200 between the third and fourth innings, you could put $50 on them. Total investment = $170 Profit potential with St. Louis victory = $50 You lose the $50 on the Pittsburgh bet, but you pick up $100 in profit on the St. Louis wager.
Total investment = $305 Total profit potential = $200
Profit potential with Pittsburgh victory = -$20
Profit percentage = 66% Now, you may say to yourself laying $305 to only make $200 doesn’t constitute value, but think about it this way: the 66% profit that you made is much, much better than anything that a Wall Street investor is looking for. Hedging against wagers We can take the same example, St. Louis versus Pittsburgh, in order to illustrate how we can hedge
against iffy positions. Let’s say that we’ve got the same set-up, St. Louis is up by 2 after three innings, but the St. Louis starting pitcher has already thrown 60 pitches. He’s been getting himself out of trouble, but he’s looking awfully dicey.
You lose $120 on the St. Louis wager, but you pick up $100 profit on the Pittsburgh wager. By hedging, you’ve cut your losses by $100 on the St. Louis wager. Is live betting worth it? It is absolutely worth it depending on the circumstances of the game. Live betting gives you the ability to increase profit on existing wager or cut losses by hedging against an iffy wager.
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2014
Top 11 NCAAF
Rivalry Games Georgia at South Carolina
All the talk in the SEC is about Auburn and Alabama, but this game is always one of the best early matchups of the year. The last time these two met both teams were ranked in the top 10. The hosting Gamecocks are a force of nature at home, but the Dogs have Todd Gurley who is easily the best running back in the country. (September 14th)
Baylor at Texas
The home team in this series has won three straight by 17 or more points. The Longhorns have long ruled the lone star state. Baylor’s out to prove once and for all that there’s a new sheriff in town. Get it?! Because it’s Texas! (October 4th)
Michigan at Michigan State
This is the 107th meeting of these two teams and the Wolverines will always own the state of Michigan. Just don’t tell that to the Spartans. The better rushing team has prevailed in this series in 41 of the last 44 meetings. (October 25th)
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Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
Stanford at Oregon
Auburn vs. Alabama
The best of the Pac-12 goes head-to-head in a conference deciding epic. Oregon is usually automatic at home, but the Cardinal have always had their number. The Ducks will host their only major challenge in the Pac-12 a month before the season concludes and this one will absolutely decide who represents the PAC 10 Northern Conference in the playoffs.(November 1st)
The Iron Bowl is quickly becoming a yearly fixture yet again. Nick Saban will try to make amends for his decision in last years’ National Title Elimination game, with the game tied, and only :01 left on the clock, deciding to go for a 57-yard field goal that fell short. (November 29th)
Michigan vs. Ohio State Ohio State at Michigan State
Clearly the two best teams in the Big Ten. Can Urban Meyer salvage the loss of Braxton Miller, or will the Spartans reign supreme? (November 8th)
The Big Ten finale has always been a thriller. Last year’s game saw six lead changes, and the Wolverines were down by only 5 when they were intercepted at midfield and then the Buckeyes proceeded to run off the last four minutes of the clock. (November 29th)
Alabama vs. LSU
Obligatory Tide-Tigers matchup. Ironically, the last four times that these two teams have met one of them has been ranked # 1 and the other was ranked in the top 10. This hasn’t been much of a rivalry in recent years. (November 8th)
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
Bedlam in the Bedlam Series! I’m sure last year’s fourth quarter shut down of the Cowboys by the Sooners is fresh in the minds of the Oke State faithful. (November 29th) Notre Dame at USC
A game that has no actual bearing on the big picture, but remains a delight to watch if you love or hate either of these schools. Last time the Irish made the trip out west they never trailed, and stopped USC 4th and goal on Notre Dame’s one yard line. (November 29th)
Army vs. Navy
This year’s edition will be in M & T Bank Stadium, home of the NFL Ravens. It’s another game that doesn’t really impact the landscape, but it’s a national tradition, and Navy has a 12-game win streak going (by an average margin of victory of 22 points). Warm up those elbows because it’s time to do some push-ups! Get down and gimme some football!!! (December 13th).
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2014
Top 11 NFL
Rivalry Games T
hese are your biggest and best rivalry games to track heading in to the 2014 NFL season, listed by date. Further below you’ll find my
favorite college rivalry games in order as well. Are you ready for some football? Dreaming about these matchups will help.
Green Bay Packers at Seattle Seahawks
The very night that Seattle celebrates their Super Bowl title one more time before kicking off the season, they host the biggest threat that exists to their throne in the NFC. The Green Bay Packers travel to Seattle in what could very well be an NFC Championship preview. And it’s the first freaking game of the season!!! (Thursday, Sept. 4th)
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Manning’s heir in Indy pays him a visit as the shockingly good Colts take on the kings of the AFC for the moment. This will test how good Indy actually is, and how stern that new pass defense in Denver can be. (Sunday, Sept. 7th)
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Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
A huge tilt for the NFC West where the Seahawks visit the Niners, who will hopefully have Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman back to reinvigorate a defense that sorely needs them. This late-season slugfest will most certainly decide the fate of the division. Oh, and it’s on Thanksgiving! (Thursday, Nov. 27th)
New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers
This is one of those sort-of-rivalries between two Denver Broncos at Seattle Seahawks
storied NFL franchises. But it’s also the very first
Super Bowl rematch in enemy territory. Does it
Get that popcorn ready…and stuff it in your ears
get any better? Geez, I’m three games in to the season and I’ve already mentioned the Broncos and Seahawks twice. (Sunday, Sept. 21st)
New England Patriots at New York Jets
I just love watching the Jets get pounded by the team that they hate the most. In truth, the Pats don’t
time Aaron Rodgers goes toe-to-toe Tom Brady. because the talking heads will be screaming about this game leading up to it. (Sunday, Nov. 30th)
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints
I had to throw the poor NFC South a bone… (Sunday, Dec. 7th)
give a lick about the Jets. They’re just annoyed by them. Time to watch some bug stomping.
Oakland Raiders at San Francisco 49ers
(Sunday, October 16th)
This isn’t a huge rivalry outside of the bay, but around this part of California this is as big as it gets. Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Needs no explanation. I mean, I hope it doesn’t. It’s Manning versus Brady! (Sunday, Nov. 2nd)
Probably won’t be much of a game, but it’s always enjoyable watching the Raiders fans get their hopes up. They used to be angry “just because”. Now they’re angry because their team totally sucks. (Sunday, December 7th)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
There’s lots of fun stuff going on in the AFC North this year, with Cincinnati and Johnny Football generating headlines for all the wrong reasons. But
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears
Will the Lions actually be contenders this year?
we all know that this division belongs to one of these
Will Jay Cutler stay healthy with this high powered
two teams. They’ll clash for the first time in Week
offence? Can either defense live up to its reputation?
2 at Baltimore. This Week 9 battle will feature Ray
We’ll find out in what’s expected to be a playoff-fate
Rice and both teams chugging at full steam head on.
deciding, divisional matchup between these two
(Sunday, Nov. 2nd)
explosive teams. (Sunday, December 21st)
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What I Learned
After Losing
My Shirt
Downfall of most Gamblers
How To Start Winning!
Similar to the stock market or real estate, betting on sports is a long-term venture that can reap consistent high returns if executed correctly.
So what is your first step?
However it is widely known that over 95% of all gamblers fail to make money on sports betting, yet billions of dollars are continually plunged on sports around the world daily.
You must establish a fund strictly used for your sports betting, otherwise known as your ‘bankroll’. I would advise that you only use money that you can afford to lose.
So why do most gamblers find it so difficult to make a consistent profit?
While many firmly believe sports betting can supplement, if not replace your income in time, never under any circumstances use your rent money, mortgage repayments or the kid’s trust fund as your bankroll. Be patient and only start with what you can afford, but you will soon see your money grow if executed correctly.
The main reason is poor money management. Finding winning picks isn’t actually that difficult and there are many punters who can do so consistently, but very few have a system to managing their money. Betting $15 on one game and $100 on another leads to volatility and ultimately losing most, if not all of your money. Doubling down after each losing bet isn’t exactly a sustainable system either, because if you understand probability you will soon realize that the previous bet has no impact on the future result and this strategy is the quickest way to lose a lot of money in a hurry! Money Management is without a doubt the least understood aspect of successful sports betting, yet the most important. Coupled with poor money management, 95% of gamblers are just that, gamblers. How many gamblers bet on a game that they know very little about? How many gamblers bet on unpredictable sports where the only winners will ever be the bookmakers? How many gamblers try to recoup past losses on one ‘hot tip’, because a friend of a friend gave them a ‘sure thing’? Sounds like most of us unfortunately, however there is the 5% of pro gamblers who view sports betting as business and they WIN!
>>
1. Bet Smart
Now that you have established your bankroll, you need to have a system of how much to bet on each event. As a rule, never bet anymore than 2.5% - 5% of your entire bankroll. The reason for this is like with any investment, you will have bad runs so betting conservatively will mitigate even the worst of streaks and help keep your bankroll in tact. We would advise for the conservative investor to start at 2.5% of your bankroll, whilst the riskier investor can bet up to 5% of their bankroll on any one event. Now that we have established a bankroll then what?
>>
2. Use The Power Of Math
This step is the fun part and whilst it may sound logical, it is often misunderstood - hitting a winning percentage of above 52.36%. Would you believe that you can make an incredible profit from hitting just 56% of your bets! From the example below, you will see that the average bet has odds of $1.91 and if you place 1000 bets over the course of the year and hit 56%, your profit is an outstanding $6,960!! That is a return on equity of 348% per annum, far better than any property returns and most stocks. Even with a winning percentage of 54%, you will still profit a staggering $3,140 for the year.
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So imagine what happens when you actually have a bigger bankroll and increase the size of your bets accordingly (i.e. 5% rule), the returns grow at a phenomenal rate and this is the secret to a successful sports investor. In fact, at odds of a $1.91 (your typical handicap or even money line bets) the break even percentage is 52.36%. The pro gamblers, or sports investors, understand this and realize they only need to hit a moderate winning percentage to make an incredible profit, but must do so with a diligent money management system and finding good reliable picks. Where can you find expert free betting picks?
>>
3. Find A Good Capper
Where can you find a great capper? Our staff of expert cappers will provide an unbiased look at every major sporting event in the world. Why should you trust our cappers? A good capper is in essence a specialist consultant a sports betting consultant. Like many consultants some will charge a fee for their service but not here! Our entire website and services are completely FREE. Go back and read all of our cappers’s articles to see who is on a winning streak and follow their
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picks. All picks provided on our website will be accompanied with a short commentary giving you further information required to help judge whether you will or will not consider a tip. With the property or stock market there will always be peaks and troughs, but overall you can expect a consistent return on your investment. The same holds true for sports betting, in that over the long haul most professional cappers or experts make money, but unfortunately there will be losing days and in some occasions losing weeks over the course of a season. Therefore to further mitigate the losing streaks that a professional capper may experience from time to time, we would use the same technique investors use to build a well balanced stock portfolio – diversification. This technique is specifically designed to avoid over exposure to any one stock in the event it does not perform. This same principle would apply to pro cappers. Why over expose your bankroll to just picks from just one expert or sport when you can spread your eggs into several basketsby increasing your number of bets, leading to a greater profit in the long run. As you can see all you require is a good money management system and a good tip to make money from sports betting. Good Luck.
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
What is new and exciting for Sports
Betting and beyond?
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Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
S
ports betting, like everything in life, has periods where a lack of innovation can deter the most experienced handicapper. But, then, there are periods like the one where professional handicappers are in right now, today, a period where there appears to be nothing but innovation.
sports betting account has become much easier than ever before.
The sports book of today looks every bit like the sports book of yesterday, but key innovations in betting engines, deposit choices, and the Internet has changed the way that we wager on sports.
What use to be a hassle, depositing money into your sports betting account, is becoming easier and easier to do.
The main word to remember is “cloud� because like almost all industries, the cloud has changed the way that the sports betting handicapper performs his craft. New and Exciting for Sports Betting
>>
Mobile Betting
Mobile betting is starting to hit its peak. Mobile betting allows sports bettors to make wagers on the fly, as soon as they see the betting line that catches their interest. No longer do handicappers have to wait until they are in front of their computers or lap tops. Now, with mobile betting, they can make wagers when they want to. This gives the professional handicapper flexibility and leads to‌
>>
Live Betting
This might be the greatest evolution in sports betting in the past 30 years. Live betting allows for in-game hedging, something that we explain in a separate article in this magazine. With live betting, sports handicappers can make wagers while a game is being played. This allows that sports handicapper to increase wagers on those that are winning or hedge against those that are losing.
>>
Out of the shadows deposit methods
With the advent of cloud based transactions, think PayPal, Ebay, Amazon.com, etc., funding your
For example, MyBookie.ag accepts Visa or Mastercard. They also accept Person to Person as well as Nexteller.
What does the future hold for the Sports Betting Industry? The word to remember is the cloud. The innovations discussed above, out of the shadow deposit methods, live betting and mobile betting, may not seem like much, but it speaks to the future of the industry. That main thing that is happening to the Sports Betting Industry is that it is becoming a legitimate way for investors to make money. Live betting, for example, is akin to the stock market day trader who uses his iPad or iPhone to buy and sell option contracts through his online trading account. Legitimacy began when newspapers started to publish football, baseball and other betting lines. Legitimacy for the Sports Betting Industry is gaining momentum now that the public is gaining access and those who believe that sports betting is gambling are starting to realize how powerful of an investment tool it can actually be. A changing perspective is the greatest innovation that is occurring in the Sports Betting Industry. Every tool that is being developed, from mobile betting to live betting, to the latest greatest actual wagering instrument, is leading to this changed perspective of sports betting being gambling to sports betting being investing. Once that happens, the professional sports bettor can climb out of the shadows and will be taken as seriously as the Wall Street trader.
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When to Parlay
the Side and total By D.S. Williamson
T
he College Football and NFL Seasons are upon us. For most sports bettors, this is the time of the year when most profits are made. Football is also the sport that lends itself most directly to utilizing one of the great tools in sports betting, the parlay. The definition of a parlay is “a cumulative series of bets in which winnings accruing from each transaction are used as a stake for a further bet�. In other words, the parlay is used to turn an initial stake or winnings from a previous bet into a greater amount by gambling on a series of bets. A parlay, accumulator, or combo bet is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers and is dependent on all of those wagers winning together. The benefit of the parlay is that there are much higher payoffs than placing each
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Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
individual bet separately since the difficulty of hitting it is much higher. If any of the bets in the parlay lose, the entire parlay loses. If any of the plays in the parlay ties, or “pushes”, the parlay reverts to a lower number of teams with the odds reducing accordingly. Parlay bets are paid out at odds higher than the typical single game bet, but still below the “true” odds. For instance, a common 2-team NFL parlay generally has a payout of 2.6:1 if both picks are correct. In reality, however, if one assumes that each single game bet is a coin flip and would be expected to pay out at 1:1, the true payout should be 3:1 instead. Our question, for the purpose of this article, does not center on whether or not to play a parlay, but rather when it’s best to parlay the spread, or when it is best to parlay the total. When to Parlay the Side The best time to parlay the side is when you see what you consider to be a line that is advantageous, requiring no buying of points, and you’re so sure of the success of this line that you want to put it into play with another game to enhance your profits. Here’s an example of an advantageous line that you might want to double your pleasure on:
>> Sportsbook A Is offering Seattle -2.5 vs. San Francisco at home
>> Sportsbook B Has the same game at Seattle -3 Betting the game straight up with Sportsbook B and buying a half point down of the three to -2.5 can cost you to lay as much as $135 to win $100. Buying a half point within the parlay itself would deflate the payoff and defeat the benefit of the parlay. Betting the parlay with Sportsbook B using Seattle
-2.5 would be a terrific play in that you received an advantageous line, while maintaining the value and integrity of the parlay payoff. When to Parlay the Total Parlaying totals is becoming a difficult issue because lines makers have become very adept in determining what total points will be accumulated in a contest between two teams. Squares usually bet the total to the over because they always want to be in the hunt to the final play. Lines makers know this. Wise guys usually bet an inflated total to the under. The best way to think about playing totals in parlays is to consider what types of scores and what amount of points will be required to exceed the total, and on the other hand, what factors might keep the total to the under. A half point may be the most important factor in determining a total. For example, if you are looking at a game and want to bet over the total and the line is 42.5, you have to really think hard about the half point. (42 total points divided by 7 = 6). You’re assuming that 6 touchdowns will be scored in the game, but if you take over the total of 42.5 there has to be another score somewhere in the game, a field goal, safety, whatever, a score has to occur outside of the 6 touchdowns. Would there be value in betting the under if the total was 42? Not exactly. Believing that each team will score at least 21 points each, further scoring would be required to declare a victor. Therefore, a total of 41.5 is conducive to the “over” player. Either way, forcing the total up or down by buying points in your parlay is a waste of time because it deflates the value of your payoff, which is the sole purpose of your parlay in the first place. Use your handicapping ability to find value in the lines offered. Then, once you’ve found the value line, think about whether or not the half point is going to matter when you bet the side or total. Isolating parlay wagers can be very profitable. The key is the ability to recognize the value in a line.
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Cold Weather
NFL Teams to Bet Against
By D.S. Williamson
C
old weather NFL teams have an advantage when the snow, rain and sleet begin to become a factor as we move deeper into the season, right? After all, a team that plays in the cold should be able to deal with the elements much better than teams that play either indoors or in warmer climates. Logic dictates that cold weather teams have an advantage when the temperature drops, but the stats don’t always coincide with logic. Below are four teams that football bettors should consider betting against, especially when the line makers put additional weight on the trepid weather. Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers don’t necessarily play bad football in the cold. That’s not the real issue. The real issue is that they are a cold weather team that always is expected to win the AFC North each and every season. The weather is annunciated with terms applied to the Steelers such as the “Steel Curtain.” Did you ever hit a wall of steel in cold weather? The betting line always appears to be skewed against Pittsburgh who opened last season by going 2-5 ATS. The Steelers turned it around and finished the season with a great ATS run, but don’t expect history to repeat itself in the 2014-2015 season. Big Ben blasted management for not drafting any speed receivers in the offseason to beef up the innocuous, plodding offense that has become the modus operandi of the Steelers. If the preseason is any indication, the Steelers have now gone from mediocre to bad, and the steel mills are all shut down in Pittsburgh. Cleveland Browns No Josh Gordon for the season means that Johnny Manziel (when he finally gets the job) has nobody to throw the ball to. The Browns were 6-10 ATS last season. They could go 4-12 ATS this season because everybody knew how bad they were in 2013-2014 and expects better results with their talented drafted players and their new coach. The addition of Manziel will most certainly have an effect on
deflating the spread when they’re dogs and inflating the spread if they manage to show up as favorites. The latter remains to be seen. This isn’t the same team that played great football in the frozen “dog pound” in the days of yesteryear with Dr. Ryan over center and Paul Brown coaching from the sidelines. That team moved away in the middle of the night years ago. This team is just outright bad whether it’s 90 degrees or 20 below. New York Jets The Jets are an interesting team. They were terrific against New England last season, but they failed against the spread in road games against Cincinnati, Buffalo and Baltimore. Those are three teams that weren’t nearly as highly regarded as the New England Patriots. The thing about the Jets is that the cold neither hurts nor helps them. Like Cleveland, the Jets could very well be a bad team this season. Football bettors should stay away from them unless they’re getting enough points where J-E-T-S become a value play ATS. As the expression always rings out at the stadium in NY in bad times, “go Mets go… and take the Jets with you.” Buffalo Bills Cold weather is only advantageous to you as an NFL team if you have a decent team to begin with. Buffalo went 8-8 ATS last season, but they have no advantage playing in the cold. The schedule is brutal in 2014 with the Bills playing Chicago, Miami, New England, Detroit, San Diego and going to the Meadowlands to face the Jets in six of their first eight games. Their next eight games don’t get any easier since they have to face Miami, the Jets and New England again and they take on Kansas City and Denver. Oh, yes, Green Bay comes to town on Dec. 14. The Bills figure to have a horrible 2014 season against the spread. The Bills have become a finesse team with the addition of Watkins, but they have a QB that is just too erratic to compliment him. Cold or not, stay away.
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
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Rules to Follow When Selecting a
Sports Book
By D.S. Williamson
C
hoosing a sports book is no easy task. For the recreational sports bettor, what sports book he decides on can have good or bad repercussions. It’s important for the prospective bettor to make the right decision on his choice of a sports book right out of the gate so as to enhance his wagering experience. With that in mind, we’ve come up with seven basic rules to follow when selecting a Sports Book. Rule 1 – Experience The online sports betting industry has been around for almost as long as when Al Gore invented the Internet. That’s a long time. It makes no sense to go with a sports book, whose core management team is new to the sports betting industry. Good management teams of a sports book work “quietly” behind the scene to make sure the operation runs in a well-oiled manner. Running a sports book successfully requires an in-depth knowledge of everything related to sports betting as well as Internet security protocols, an understanding of financial management, and everything else that goes along with running an on-line business. Management should be reputable, friendly, and knowledgeable to the industry. Experience is mandatory. Rule 2 – Integrity There are a lot of ways to measure integrity. One of the ways is to consider rule # 1, experience, and then go from there. In the sports-betting industry, management teams with experience are usually the ones that also have integrity. Without integrity management teams are likely to fade away and never be heard from again as a result of their failure to keep up with their industry peers and competitors. Integrity is not something taught in school, it’s a measurement of knowledge of the industry of each team member of management, and their ability to cope with all of the everyday problems that management faces each and every day. This is a trait that is acquired and earned over time with years’ of experience, based on management’s past track record in dealing with its customers in a fair and honest manner.
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Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
Rule 3 – Finances
Rule 6 – Wagering Menu
A sports book that doesn’t have the financial backing won’t last long. The only way to know this is to give the sports book a try and then ask for a payout of your winnings. Deposit and payout rules and options available to their clients are usually indicative of the sports book’s financial track record.
In addition to against the spread, over/under, and money-line wagers, you will want to join a sports book that offers teaser, parlay and action point wagers. Maximum payout odds on exotic wagers should be spelled out in advance, and it should be on their website to avoid misunderstandings down the road.
The ability for the client to request his payout on-line is a must. This should be the first thing a prospective bettor should inquire into. It doesn’t hurt for the sports book to be a publicly traded company, and licensing of the organization should be in a non-volatile country. Rule 4 – Easy Betting Engine If it is difficult to make wagers, it will be difficult to make profits. This makes sense. Our advice to you is to forget the bells and whistles. You want an easy-to-navigate sports book website with an easy- to-bet software. This is especially true if you start using live betting, of which topic we’ll expound on in a different article of this publication. In short, successful bettors use live betting to increase their profits or hedge bets that are already in play. Beware and stay away from shops with software that continuously times out, or is even down for significant periods of time. Rule 5 - Deposits and Payouts You want to choose a sports book that makes you prove who you are when you deposit money and request payouts. This sounds counter intuitive at first, but it makes total sense. You want one that requires you to put your driver’s license on file and copies of your credit cards on file. You never want to jeopardize the integrity and funds of your account to someone who is trying to steal your identity. When it comes to payouts, you want a sports book that will pay you out within 48 hours or less, and doesn’t limit amounts on a payout. Again, pay outs are a good measure as to the solvency of that sports book.
Stay away from a sports book with static on-line odds that “miraculously” change against your favor every time you try to finalize/confirm a bet. It should be no different than when you speak with an operator on the telephone live and the operator gives you a run down. That operator never changes the line when you place your bet, on-line wagering should be no different. If you are a horseplayer, you will want to play with a sports book that has high payout odds on races and spells out their limits on the smaller race tracks. You don’t want this to be a learning experience down the road. Rebates are a must, especially higher percentages on the major tracks. Rule 7 – Bonuses Bonuses are extremely important. They’re also difficult to navigate. What you, as a sports bettor, has to understand is that almost all bonuses require a roll-over requirement. Make sure to read the fine print on bonuses. Good sports books offer two to three different types of bonuses that you can get. Make sure to call if you are confused about how the bonus actually works. Some shops offer rewards or rebates on your betting volume, win or lose. This is a new and refreshing way to get rewarded for your loyalty to the sports book. Finding the right sports book is not easy, but by following our seven simple little rules you will not only find the right sports book for you, but you’ll be up and running and wagering in no time. Good luck!
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College Football
playoffs and How to Bet Them By D.S. Williamson
C
ollege Football finally has a playoff system. Okay, it’s not much of a playoff system, there is still a selection committee involved, but at least there’s no BCS Championship where the two competitors are determined via polls and computers. Every year, the Selection Committee made up of political figures like Condoleeza Rice and in the know former college football stars like Archie Manning decide on the four teams to play in the College Football Playoffs. The way it works is this: the four teams chosen will play in two semi-final games on either New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day with the College Football Championship taking place on a Monday a week later. There will be one other game on New Year’s Eve and New Year’s Day but the teams that play in those two games will not have a chance at the College Football Championship. The following bowls will take part in the new structure: Orange, Rose, Sugar, Fiesta, Cotton and Peach. Cities will bid on the College Football Championship like they do to host the Super Bowl. Now that we know some basics about this strange, new College Football Playoff system, how are we going to bet it?
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College Football Playoffs and How to Bet Them The key thing to remember is that it is the Selection Committee who will decide upon the four teams. Right now, we want to think about what teams have a shot in the online future sports book to win the College Football Championship. Let’s go over what the Selection Committee will be looking for before getting into the four teams to consider for our future wagers. See below for the Selection Committee’s goals: • Select the top four teams for the playoff, rank them and assign them to semifinal sites. • Rank the next group of teams to play in other New Year’s bowls if berth are available. • Select the highest-ranked champion from the five conferences without New Year’s bowl contracts. • Assign teams to New Year’s bowls - Create competitive matchups - Attempt to avoid rematches of regular-season games and repeat appearances - Consider geography The first bullet point is the most important. Although
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
the first bullet point is the most important, the rest of the bullet points clue us in as to how the Selection Committee might decide on those four teams. For example, the bullet point that says, “attempt to avoid rematches of regular season games” means that it’s unlikely that Alabama, LSU and Auburn all end up in the College Football Playoffs. It’s also unlikely that both Baylor and Oklahoma end up in the playoffs or Oregon and USC. Another thing that they’re trying to do is to “create competitive matchups”. What this tells me is that an SEC team is going to be in the College Football Playoffs because it’s likely to be the deepest conference. A Pac-12 squad could have a problem because of the natural bias against football on the West Coast for any team not named Oregon or USC (don’t deny it… it exists in college football) and there’s a strong possibility that a Big Ten team gets in even though the conference sort of blows this season. With all of this in mind, let’s take a look at who I think are the best future plays to win the College Football Championship. 1. Florida State Seminoles +450 Yep, they’re the chalk on the board but they only have two tough games and “tough” is relative. The first is against Clemson and Clemson’s AD is on the Selection Committee. How could he possibly go against FSU after they thump his team? The second game is versus Miami and everybody is still waiting for the 1990’s version of the ‘Canes to arrive. It won’t happen this year. 2. Alabama Crimson Tide +550 It’s tough to get past the top two chalks. I tried, but it’s impossible. Alabama will get a mulligan, meaning that they can lose a game to either LSU or Auburn in the Iron Bowl and still make it to the College Football Playoffs unless LSU or Auburn is undefeated.
The fluke play killed ‘Bama’s chance at the BCS Championship last season. We can’t anticipate another fluke play happening to them this season and nobody is as good of a coach in college football as Nick Saban. They’ll get a bid into the College Football Playoffs. 3. Michigan State Spartans +2500 Everybody is picking Ohio State from the Big Ten to get into the College Football Playoffs, but I think the Selection Committee is going to have a hard time not picking the Spartans after they upset the Ducks on September 6 in Oregon and take down the Buckeyes on Nov. 8. MSU’s program is finally hitting its stride. This is the long shot pick that makes sense because if MSU gets into the playoffs there won’t be another team that plays defense as well as they do. 4. Oklahoma Sooners +900 The road doesn’t get any easier for a team to go 12 and 0. Texas Tech is the only team that Oklahoma plays on the road this season that had a winning record last year. Mike Stoops says the defense is fantastic and his brother, Bob Stoops, should have the offense as playing as well as it always does. Plus, by picking Oklahoma, the Selection Committee will have chosen the best team in the country, Florida State, to go along with an SEC team, a Big Ten team and a Big 12 team. That’s fairness, right? The question now becomes, could a team like Notre Dame or Boise State, maybe, a Pac 12 school sneak into the College Football Playoffs? That’s doubtful. Notre Dame plays Florida State on Oct. 18. That should be a loss. Oregon just lost their left tackle, Tyler Johnstone, to a torn ACL and there is nobody else in the Pac 12 good enough to go undefeated, and even if Boise State goes undefeated they’re going to have to really impress the Selection Committee in some way due their strength of schedule. Good luck with your College Football Playoffs’ wagers!
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
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2014
Top Ten
College Football Games
E
very sports enthusiast, as well as college football coach, has certain games on their schedule circled. Even frosh players are “programmed” in spring practice to get ready for these awesome match ups. I have my list and I want to share them with you below. I assure you that there’s no need to wait for rivalry week for these teams to get pumped up for these games. These games will have playoff implications, while teams try to position themselves in their conference standings. So put on your helmet and buckle up!
Auburn Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Nick Saban will try to make amends for his decision in last years’ National Title Elimination game, with the game tied, and only :01 left on the clock, deciding to go for a 57-yard field goal that fell short. Unless you were in outer space you know what happened next, as Auburn ran the failed attempt back for a TD on the left side of the field against a slow Tide special kicking team which included beef to block, but no speed to tackle. Let’s see if the Tide’s transfer QB Coker can get it done this time in regulation. (November 29th)
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Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
Stanford Cardinal vs. Oregon Ducks
Either Marcus Mariota didn’t like the idea of playing for any of the teams near the top of the NFL draft… or he has unfinished business in Oregon. The Ducks will host their only major challenge in the Pac-12 a month before the season concludes and this one will absolutely decide who represents the PAC 10 Northern Conference in the playoffs. Oregon is a great bet at home historically, but Stanford has a way of coming through in the clutch during big games, which hasn’t been the case for Mariota-led teams. Last year the Ducks fell behind by 26 only
to have their comeback thwarted when they came within 5 points with no time outs left. Helfrich will make sure on his home turf that his squad will not need to retrieve an onside kick to prevail this time around. (November 1st)
Michigan Wolverines at Ohio State Buckeyes
Each year when this game comes around the national TV crew is always present on the scene, and the ratings are on the rise when the Buckeyes and Wolverines square off. Quarterback JT Barrett has the confidence of Urban Meyer, which we’ll soon find out if he can keep as the season gets on the way. He’s no Braxton Miller, but he’s the reason that the Buckeyes haven’t thrown the towel in just yet before the season started. Last year’s game saw six lead changes, and the Wolverines were down by only 5 when they were intercepted at midfield and then the Buckeyes proceeded to run off the last four minutes of the clock. Need I tell you more? (November 29th)
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan State Spartans
Ohio State’s biggest rival in the conference is Michigan, but their biggest threat is going to be these nasty, spread-devouring Spartans who lost only one game last year and went a conference best 9-4-1 ATS. Last year, in the Big Ten Championship game the Spartans jumped out by 17 points only to give up the lead with minutes left in the third quarter. After that the Spartans out gained the Buckeyes 227-46 while scoring the final 17 points. Do you think Meyer might have this game circled on his calendar? (November 8th)
Baylor Bears vs. Oklahoma Sooners
Bryce Petty was one of the best quarterbacks in the league last year, despite chatter that he’s a “system quarterback”. Who cares? We’re talking about passers who make their teams a great bet, and Petty fits the bill while paying them ten-fold in the process. Baylor went 9-4 ATS last year while outscoring everyone in an 11-2 SU season. But they’re not alone in the always-competitive Big 12,
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
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(only 9 teams left now) and Oklahoma will be looking to make a statement on their home field. Talking about the home field, this matchup has seen the home team win for the last 3 years. Last year the Sooners jumped out to a small lead, only to see the Bears score 28 straight points. Let’s see if home cooking is the recipe this year again. (November 8th)
heartedly believe that this squad can go up against the toughest in the strongest conference and win it. Their fate will ultimately be decided early, when they visit the fortress, Williams-Brice Stadium, which is the home of the Gamecocks. The Gamecocks owned Georgia until last year (3 straight) and we’ll see if Spurrier can start a new streak. (September 13th)
Auburn Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Oklahoma Sooners
This might be as much of a rivalry anymore as people are hoping. The Tide are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games when playing LSU, but have demolished them in the last three games by a combined differential of 46.0 points. Les Miles’ grip as a contender in the SEC might be slipping, but this is always a game surrounded by drama making it an easy pick for my list. (November 8th)
The Bedlam Bowl was one of the best games of the year in 2013, with an incredible final drive serving as the exclamation point for the Sooners in victory. Now the tables are turned, with the always underrated Cowboys given the chance to play the role of road spoiler. Both teams mirrored 8-5 ATS records last year and this year should be no different. It’ll be a lover’s quarrel pick for nonalumni bettors. I’m sure last year’s fourth quarter shut down of the Cowboys by the Sooners plays nightmares on Gundy’s memory, but I think he’ll have a hard time turning it around here in Norman where as a coach as well as an OSU QB he has gone 0-7 since 1986. (December 6th)
Oregon Ducks vs. UCLA Bruins
If there’s a team out there in the PAC 10 that can give Stanford and Oregon a run for its money this season, it will be the Bruins. Quarterback Brett Hundley was a monster last year and returns to familiar territory where he’ll be able to hurl bombs and (hopefully) make UCLA a threatening bet like they were last year. Last year the Bruins shut down the Ducks on their turf, only to see the Ducks romp in the second half. This year the Ducks have to travel to the Rose Bowl and coach Mora is just sick and tired of losing to Oregon (5 straight). This game, and the game against Stanford (also at home this year), will go a long way in determining whether the Bruins can capture the PAC 10 South Conference. (October 11th)
Georgia Bulldogs vs. South Carolina Gamecocks
The Georgia Bulldogs are a sleeping giant in the SEC unless you speak to their fans, who whole-
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Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks
One of the best defenses in the country, if not the best, charges head-first into enemy territory where the country’s best offense sits in wait. Unlike most games in this list, this is a rare non-conference matchup featuring two programs hitting their peak. The Spartans historically have been poor travelers in regular season non-conference games out west going 1-4 since ’08. This game could have a significant effect in the national playoff standings, where the Ducks are 4-0 at home in Autzen Stadium lifetime against the Spartans. Last year, in the Rose Bowl, the Spartans prevailed in their only trip out west. We’ll see if Dantonio can keep his squad firing once again out west. (September 13th)
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
2014
Top Ten
NFL Football Games T
he 2014 NFL Schedule is chock full of excellent matchups. We pulled out the Top 10 Games that we see occurring during this year’s NFL Regular Season. Not only do we believe that these Top 10 might be the most significant of the season, but we also believe that they could, with some expert football handicapping help, lead to profits for sports bettors. Let’s get right to the list!
Green Bay at Seattle
The season starts off with two of the NFC’s favorites going head-to-head up in the Great Northwest. Green Bay is the wise guy’s choice to win the NFC and the Super Bowl while the champs are expected to take a slight step backward considering they’re only a +600 favorite to repeat. Will one of these NFC juggernauts make a statement? (September 4th)
New Orleans at Atlanta
This game, in Week 1, could actually determine which team in the NFC South wins the division. Sure, it’s only Week 1, but Atlanta has to protect their home field against the hated Saints while the Saints will 32
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
want to stamp themselves as a serious contender for the Super Bowl right out of the gate.
Philly, KC and St. Louis, all tough games, before facing the Broncos. (october 19th)
Whichever team wins this matchup will be in the driver’s seat for the South. (September 7th)
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh
Denver at Seattle
Denver has much more at stake in this game than the Seahawks do. The Broncos have to prove to themselves that the Super Bowl beat down was a fluke and that they can hang with the ‘Hawks on Seattle’s home field. If Denver upsets Seattle in this contest, expect the Broncos to roll through the AFC. (September 21th)
Philadelphia at San Francisco
It’s put up or shut up time for Chip Kelly and the Eagles’ offense as it takes on Jim Harbaugh’s vaunted 49’ers defense. Has Eagles’ QB Nick Foles grown enough to lead Philly to what would be a huge win against another NFC title contender? Or, will the 49’er D contain LeSean McCoy and the rest of the Eagles’ offense? (September 28th)
NYJ at New England
This could be the game where we find out if Jets’ coach Rex Ryan will have a job in 2015. An upset over New England could really bolster Rex’s job security, not to mentions NYJ’s quest for a playoff spot. (october 16th)
Sure, it doesn’t seem like a marquee matchup, but think about how important this game could be. The Colts should win the AFC South but nothing is guaranteed and Pittsburgh will be in a dog fight with Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Baltimore in the AFC North. This figures to be a very important playoff positioning game for both teams. (october 26th)
Green Bay at New Orleans
Talk about an important playoff positioning game. The Saints host Green Bay on Oct. 26 with a lot at stake. Both teams are favorites to win the NFC and the Super Bowl. Everybody knows that Seattle will secure a position in the playoffs, or they should, but for Green Bay and New Orleans the future isn’t as obvious. This could be the game that solidifies one squad’s playoff dream while going a long way to squash the others. (october 26th) Denver at New England
Peyton Manning versus Tom Brady with a lot on the line. New England and Denver are the Top 2 favorites to make it to the Super Bowl from the AFC this season. This game occurs in November and could go a long way to determining which team garners home field advantage throughout the playoffs. That advantage could be huge for the winner of the yearly Manning vs. Brady Bowl. (november 2th)
San Francisco at Denver
The NFC is loaded while the AFC has about two to three real Super Bowl contenders. San Francisco could be in dire straits, considering how tough the NFC is, by the time that they take on Denver in October. As crazy as it sounds, a victory over the Broncos in Denver in this game could make or break the 49er’s’ season because they play Dallas, Chicago, Arizona,
San Francisco at Seattle
This could be the game that decides all of it, who wins the NFC West, who secures home field advantage throughout the NFC Playoffs, and which team will ultimately win the Super Bowl. San Francisco is going to have to play lights out in order to beat the Seahawks on the road, but if they can do it, the NFC could be theirs. (december 14th)
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
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How to Throw
the Perfect
Super Bowl Party
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t’s never too early to think about your Super Bowl Party. Sure, right now, you’re probably worried about what might happen to your carpet or your hardwood floors if you throw the raging Super Bowl Party that you know you want to throw. But once the season starts, all of those worries are sure to go out the window because you want to be the guy or gal that everybody remembers for that Super Bowl Party, the unforgettable one that parents talk about to their children when Super Bowl 2040 rolls around. So, why dilly-dally? Let’s get right to it!
How to Throw the Perfect Super Bowl Party Send out the right invitations – This is especially true if in you circle there’s a competing party out there. By right invitation, we mean that your invitation has to says, “Be lazy because I’ve got it covered.” It can’t be something like, “Yeah, so, if you guys want, I might have some people over for the Super Bowl this year. But…only if you guys want.” It has to be something like, “I’ve got the Super Bowl planned, guys. Just show up. The food, booze, everything will be taken care of. All you guys will have to do is show up, park, and then ring the doorbell.” It’s about ease of use, like everything in life. Nobody wants to have to “work” to go to a Super Bowl Party. Invite the right mix of people – You really need to be careful to invite the right mix of people when you throw a Super Bowl Party. For example, if your buddy John broke up with your friend Emily just recently, it might not be a good idea to invite both of them to the party. Also, think about rivalries. Let’s say you have two friends who are die-hard fans of the opposite competing teams in that year’s Super Bowl. Better make sure fists don’t fly at your pad. So, keep that in mind before inviting those two dudes.
liquor and beer together, and having people show up is enough. You have to make sure that people can see the game. What it means is that you might have to break out two or three more televisions and strategically place them in your home so that people can watch. The worst thing that can happen is if 20 of your best friends are all huddled around your 16” SD Zenith TV that grandma gave you when you went to college. Rabbit ears and foil is so 1980’s. Simplify Food and Beverages – Maybe, you want to get food from the 5-star restaurant down the street, but why bother? When it comes to food and beverages, keep everything as simple as possible. You should consider getting a keg of beer and keeping it to one kind of beer. That way, if you are clear to your guests, the only sharp objects in the house will be your whit. If they want to bring their own beer, and you don’t want bottles flying around, just tell them that you don’t have any room in the fridge. Make sure to get enough veggie plates. People love the health alternative nowadays. And, for god’s sake, stick to finger foods. Finally, don’t forget about how you’re going to handle all of the trash…the physical variety, not the verbal variety. Designated drivers – It’s important for you to have two to three people to stay sober and serve as designated drivers. In the United States, Super Bowl Sunday rivals the Fourth of July for traffic stops, DUI arrests and, yes, vehicular deaths. So, please think about how you’re going to get your guests home if one of them has a bit too much to drink. It’s the right thing to do. There you have it! If you stick to our advice about throwing the perfect Super Bowl Party, you’re sure to get calls the following season. And then, who knows? Super Bowl Event Planning might be something for you in the future!
Strategically set-up your house for Super Bowl watching – This is one step that everybody forgets. They think that just inviting people, getting the food,
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
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2014
NFC Preview
and Predictions W
hether you love him, or loathe him, you’ve got to respect the fact that Seattle Seahawks Pro Bowl cornerback Richard Sherman is a guy that backs up his trash talking ways with outstanding on-field play. Now, with one Super Bowl title in hand, Sherman and the rest of his ‘Legion Of Boom’ teammates, say they plan to emphatically cash in on their Odds To Win The NFC while putting on a repeat performance from last season’s title-winning team. This expert NFL 2014 preview and predictions on the entire NFC conference will give you the insight you’ll need in order to figure out whether Seattle will back up their brash talk – or whether some other NFC Super Bowl hopeful will make them eat their words. With that thought in mind – and the 2014 NFL regular season quickly approaching, let’s get this party started.
I know Seattle ranked 26th in passing during the regular season, but how many quarterbacks would you take over Russell Wilson right now? My point exactly…not many, outside of the game’s most elite signal-callers. Besides, Seattle features a run-based offensive attack that ranked fourth in the league last season. Seattle lost veteran wideout Golden Tate, but added speedy rookie wideout Paul Richardson with the 45th overall pick in the draft and re-signed veteran Sidney Rice. The Seahawks ranked first against the pass last season and seventh against the run and they should be a ‘monster’ again on defense in 2014.
NFC West Seattle Seahawks (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
No team has managed to win consecutive Super Bowl titles since Tom Brady and the Patriots accomplished the feat back in 2004 and 2005, but I believe the Seattle Seahawks have a better chance of doing so of any title winner since. 36
At +275 to win the NFC and a value-packed +650 to win the 2015 Super Bowl, I’m thinking Seattle is worth a wager on both counts. This team’s core group of stars is still young, vastly talented and apparently still quite hungry if you listen to guys like Richard Sherman.
Seattle re-upped beloved head coach Pete Carroll and all-pro safety Earl Thomas and doesn’t have any distractions that could potentially derail their hopes of repeating as Super Bowl champs. Oh…if you didn’t know, the Seahawks also compiled a league-best 11-5 ATS mark a year ago thanks to
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
the gifted Wilson, veteran running back Marshawn Lynch, Sherman and the rest of his L.O.B. teammates. San Francisco 49ers (12-4 SU, 11-5 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Frisco reached the NFC Championship game for the third consecutive season in 2013 and I see no reason to believe they’re not going to contend for their second Super Bowl appearance in the last four years in 2014. At a solid +400 to win the NFC and value-packed +750 to win Super Bowl 49, I love the Niners’ chances of cashing in on both. Frisco ranked ninth against the pass (222.8 ypg) and a stellar fourth against the run (95.9 ypg) while
limiting their opponents to a measly 17.0 points per game, good for third-best in the league. San Francisco ‘s did struggle on offense a bit, particularly throwing the ball as they finished 30th in passing and they’ll need athletically-gifted quarterback Colin Kaepernick to be better this season or else teams will really key on Frank Gore and put the clamps on Frisco’s third-ranked rushing attack. The Niners added safety Jimmie Ward with the 30th pick in the NFL Draft before nabbing running back Carols Hyde and center Marcus Martin in the second round. The Niners are trying to give Kaepernick more receiving help, but I’m not real impressed with their signing of veteran wide receivers Brandon Lloyd and Kassim Osgood in free agency. St. Louis Rams (7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
Not only will the St. Louis Rams enter the 2014 NFL regular season looking to avoid their 10th consecutive season of missing out on the postseason, but they’ve got one absolutely huge question mark at quarterback Sure, the Rams are a valuable +2200 to win the NFC and a bankroll-boosting +5000 to cash in on their Super Bowl 49 NFL Futures Odds, but first, this team just needs to get back to .500 for the first time since 2006. While St. Louis finished the 2013 campaign ranked an impressive ninth against the run (102.9 ypg), the Rams’ mediocre offense left a lot to be desired. 2010 No. 1 overall draft pick, quarterback Sam Bradford has compiled a pitiful 18-30-1 record as a starter and has missed significant time in two of his four seasons, including missing nine games last season. The Rams are hoping Bradford can become the franchise quarterback he was expected to be when he was drafted four years ago, but at this point, I’m thinking he’s going to be more of a major draft bust than anything else. St. Louis ranked 27th in passing (195.3 ypg) and 19th in rushing (109.5 ypg) last season and I don’t think
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toughest division in the league now (thanks Seattle and Frisco). At a value-packed +1500 to win the NFC and equally bankroll-boosting +4000 to cash in on their Super Bowl 49 NFL futures odds, I’m thinking it’s quite possible the Cards could upset the entire apple cart in the conference – if they can improve their offense a bit. Despite going 10-6 last season, the Cards were left on the outside looking in come playoff time mostly because they reside in the same division as the Niners and Super Bowl champion Seattle Seahawks. Arizona led the NFL in run defense by limiting their opponents to a paltry 84.4 yards per game on the ground while also ranking 14th against the pass (233.0 ypg). If the Cards can improve their 13thranked passing attack and their abysmal 23rdranked ground attack, I think a playoff appearance – and then some – could be in the forecast for this team. Arizona added safety Deon Bucannon with the 27th overall pick in the draft and used two of their first three picks on defenders, though I think they should have gone all ‘offense’ early on.
NFC East Washington Redskins (3-13 SU, 5-11 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
they did enough in free agency by adding veterans like guard David Joseph and backup quarterback Shaun Hill among others. The good news is that the team’s pair of first round draft picks should both start and contribute right away in No. 2 overall pick, tackle Greg Robinson and No. 13 overall pick, defensive tackle Aaron Donald. Arizona Cardinals (10-6 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
Arizona had a fantastic 2013 season in head coach Bruce Arians’ first season in the desert and I believe things could be even better for this team in 2014 despite the fact that the Cards play in arguably the
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With veteran head coach Mike Shanahan now out of the picture after mostly alienating its franchise quarterback the last two seasons, Robert Griffin III and the Washington Redskins are heading in a new direction as they get set for the 2014 NFL regular season under first-year head coach Jay Gruden. Gruden’s first order of business isn’t fixing Griffin III and Washington’s anemic passing attack. No, his first order of business will be addressing the team’s defensive issues which caused it to rank 20th against the pass and 17th against the run. Of course, the offensive-minded Gruden has also been brought in to undo the psychological damage
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
Shanahan leveled upon the young signal-caller the last two seasons. I like Gruden to fix his team’s offense at some point in the very near future, but I believe Washington could struggle mightily to stop opponents from making routing visits into the end zone, at least early on. Eight wins sound about right for Washington in 2014. Philadelphia Eagles (10-6 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
At a stunning +1500 to win the NFC and even more stupendous +2500 to win Super Bowl 49, I like what the Eagles are bringing to the table this season under now, second-year head coach Chip Kelly. Critics everywhere ripped Kelly’s fast-paced, highscoring offense, saying it would never fly in the NFL, but they were laughably wrong as Philadelphia fielded the second-best offense in the league last season. Philadelphia ranked ninth in passing (256.9 ypg) as quarterback Nick Foles evolved into one of the best young signal-callers in the game today. Philly also finished first in rushing (160.4 ypg) as versatile running back LeSean McCoy rushed for a leaguehigh 1,607 yards . Now the Eagles look like they could be even more potent on offense despite parting ways with enigmatic wide receiver DeSean Jackson. The Birds added elusive veteran running back Darren Sproles and will also have underrated wideout Jeremy Maclin back on the field after he sat out last season with an ACL tear. If the Eagles can improve their pitiful 32nd-ranked pass defense, then they could very well upset the entire apple cart in the NFC. Just remember, you heard it here first!
battle ahead of them after falling hard and fast a year ago. The Giants are looking to bounce back from their uninspiring 7-9 campaign in 2013 and I believe they will, mostly because things can’t get much worse for a Tom Coughlin team. The Giants ranked a dismal 29th in rushing (83.2 ypg) and uninspiring 19th in passing (224.2 ypg) as two-time Super Bowl-winning quarterback Eli manning turned into a virtual turnover machine, tossing a league-high 27 interceptions. New York was much better on the defensive side of the ball as they finished 10th against pass and 14th against the run. The G-Men drafted wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. with the 12th overall pick in the draft and added center Weston Richburg in the second round to help address their offensive woes but the bottom line for the G-Men is that their core veterans need to play better. New York added veterans like cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, safety Quentin Demps and cornerback Walter Thurmond and I think they’ll help this coming season, though how much, I don’t know. Dallas Cowboys (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
The Dallas Cowboys like to refer to themselves as ‘ America ‘s Team’ but unless ‘ America ‘ likes a bunch of losers, I say that title should go right in the trash. The ‘Boys are +3000 to win the NFC and +5000 to cash in on their Super Bowl 49 NFL futures odds, but the fact of the matter is that the Cowboys are still screaming ‘mediocre’ as they try to avoid becoming the first team in league history to go 8- 8 in four straight seasons.
(7-9 SU, 7-9 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
Dallas had a multitude of problems on the defensive side of the ball last season and things could be even worse this coming season with Dallas losing three of its most productive members, including its top defender and former franchise superstar DeMarcus Ware.
The Giants are +2500 to win the NFC and +4000 to win Super Bowl 49, but they also have an uphill
Not only did Dallas lose Ware to the Denver Broncos, but they’ll also be without injured linebacker Shawn
New York Giants
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Lee and quality defensive lineman Jason Hatcher who will suit up for Washington this season.
Detroit Lions
Making matters even worse is the fact that starting quarterback Tony Romo has played more like a green rookie trying to find his niche in recent seasons, than a veteran signal-caller that has the look of a future Super Bowl champion.
The Detroit Lions (7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS, 8-8 O/U) have been arguably the most idiotic and dysfunctional team in the league for the better part of the past five years under former head coach Jim Schwartz. Now, with new head coach Jim Caldwell being a far more steady hand, Detroit hopes it can get back to being a legitimate contender like they were during the 2010 season
Dallas has a new defensive coordinator in veteran NFL coach Rod Marinelli, but he’ll have his work cut out in trying to help Dallas improve its pitiful defense, which ranked dead last in the league overall last season, including 30th against the pass and 27th against the run.
NFC North Green Bay Packers ( 8-7-1 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
At a value-packed +700 to win the NFC and an even more pleasing +1000 to win Super Bowl 49, I think Green Bay is one of the ‘must-bet’ teams in the NFC heading into the 2014 season. The fact of the matter is that when you have one of the game’s most elite quarterbacks like Green Bay does with Aaron Rodgers, then you’re always going to have a chance to be successful every season. The Packers need to shore up their 24th-ranked pass defense and 25th-ranked run defense but they seem to have addressed their needs on that side of the ball by adding veteran defensive lineman Julius Peppers and athletic safety Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix with the 21st-pick in the draft before going on to use four of their top six draft picks on defensive players. Depending on how quickly they can improve their defense to match their top 10 offense… Green Bay finished the 2013 season ranked sixth in passing and a surprising seventh in rushing as Aaron Rodgers had another fine season despite playing in just nine games. Green Bay also found their running back of the future in rookie running back Eddie Lacy as the former Alabama star rushed for 1,178 yards on 284 carries for a solid 4.1-yard average. 40
(7-9 SU, 6-10 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
At +2000 to win the NFC and +4000 to win Super Bowl 49, the Lions look like they could contend for a playoff berth for years to come if everything works out well. Detroit needs to address their 17th-ranked rushing attack and equally depressing 23rd-ranked pass defense, but. in the end…I like Detroit ‘s hiring of Caldwell and fully believe he will have a positive effect on the team’s dysfunctional players. However, I expect it be at least another year before this team really contends. Chicago Bears (8-8 SU, 4-11-1 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
At +1000 to win the NFC and +1600 to win Super Bowl 49, the Chicago Bears will enter the 2014 regular season looking to build on their solid 8-8 campaign they had in head coach Marc Trestman’s first season in 2013. While I’m not one to generally point out people’s faults, things don’t look very good for ‘Da Bears’ when you consider the fact that Chicago fired former head coach Lovie Smith after he led them to a fine 10-6 record in 2012. Chicago also has its share of issued on both offense and defense as they finished just 16th in passing last season – and a pitiful 32nd in run defense. Chicago finished tied for second in points per game last season (27.8), but much of that success was due to former backup quarterback Josh McCown who played far better than starter jay Cutler did. In the five starts he received last season, McCown tossed 13 touchdown passes and just one interception while finishing the season with a stellar 109.0 quarterback rating.
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
In 11 games last season, Cutler threw just 19 touchdown passes – that were pretty much negated by the whopping 12 interceptions he tossed. Throw in 19 sacks and Cutler ends up with a dismal 89.2 percent quarterback rating.
Minnesota’s new head coach this season inherits a wealth of problems that all manifested itself last season and will have to improve a horrific defense that ranked 31st overall (399.2 ypg) and 31st against the pass (288.8 ypg).
Maybe it’s me, but I’m not too sure – even at this late stage of his career, that Jay Cutler is ever going to be the guy to lead this franchise where they want to go.
Minnesota ‘s offense was also laughably lopsided last season as they finished eighth in rushing thanks to all-world running back Adrian Peterson, but just 23rd in passing as they played musical chairs at quarterback.
Minnesota Vikings ( 5-10-1 SU, 9-7 ATS, 12-4 O/U)
The Minnesota Vikings may have won just five games last season, but I love their hiring of respected coach Mike Zimmer to lead them into a new era. Sure, the Vikes don’t have much chance of cashing in as a +7500 pick to win the NFC and whopping +12000 pick to win Super Bowl 49, but this team has nowhere to go but up and I believe they will under Zimmer.
Minnesota did make a pair of really smart draft picks by nabbing outside linebacker Anthony Barr with the ninth pick in the draft and polarizing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater with the 32nd overall draft pick. The former Louisville signal-caller will contend for the starting nod at quarterback – and that’s a good thing seeing as how veterans, Matt Cassel and Christian Ponder have already proven themselves to be backups at best.
NFC South New Orleans Saints (11-5 SU, 8-8 ATS, 6-10 O/U)
At +800 to win the NFC and +1500 to win Super Bowl 49, I like the New Orleans Saints as they get set for the 2014 season. New Orleans went 11- 5 in 2013 despite being a mostly one-dimensional team on offense as they ranked a pitiful 25th against the run, but stellar second in passing. Still, the Saints are one of just a handful of teams that I believe could potentially challenge Seattle and San Francisco for conference supremacy in the competitive NFC this coming season. The fact of the matter is that when you have arguably the game’s best quarterback on your side, like the saints do with Drew Brees, then you’re almost always going to have a chance to reach the postseason – and cause some damage. The Saints went out and got Brees another new toy in speedy rookie wideout Brandin Cooks with
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the 20th overall pick in the draft and added aging veteran cornerback Champ Bailey in free agency. If New Orleans can address their minor issues on both sides of the ball, they could upset everyone in the NFC. Carolina Panthers (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS, 5-11 O/U)
The Carolina Panthers won a surprising 12 games last season and will look to build on that as they get set for the 2014 regular season. As a +1600 pick to win the NFC and +3500 selection to cash in on their Super Bowl 49 odds, the Panthers are looking like a legitimate challenger to win the conference. Having said that, I’m also going on record to say that I don’t believe Carolina will actually take a step forward this season as they face five consecutive 2013 playoff participants starting in Week 6. Carolina ranked 11th in rushing despite not having a 1,000-yard rusher, but the team’s passing attack needs to improve from its dismal 29th overall ranking under athletically-gifted quarterback Cam Newton last season. The loss of franchise-leading wide receiver Steve Smith won’t help that cause, but the Panthers are stout on defense, ranking sixth against the pass (214.3 ypg) and second against the run (86.9 ypg) last season. Nevertheless, I don’t like Newton ‘s passing accuracy in the medium and short range passing game and I’m not sure if he will ever develop the touch to do so. Let’s put it this way… Newton is clearly not in the same category of quarterbacks as young guns, like Russell Wilson and Andrew Luck, just to name two. Atlanta Falcons (4-12 SU, 7-9 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
than nine games under head coach Mike Smith since he took over back in 2008. A +1600 pick to win the NFC and +3300 pick to win Super Bowl 49, the Falcons will need to improve their 32nd-ranked rushing attack to take some pressure off talented quarterback Matt Ryan. If the Falcons play competent defense this season they could find themselves back in the postseason. If not, then they’re likely looking at a six or seven-win season. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
The Buccaneers may not have much of a shot of cashing in as either, a +4000 pick to win the NFC or +6500 pick to win Super Bowl 49, but they sure made a smart move by hiring former Bears head coach Lovie Smith to lead them in a new direction – that is far, far different from the dysfunctional days that former head coach Greg Schiano brought them. The Bucs finished the 2013 season by dropping their last three regular season games while getting outscored 98-44 over the span, but I like Smith and his defensive genius to help shore up this area, almost immediately. Tampa Bay also ranked dead last (32nd) in passing last season but I expect their passing attack to improve immensely after getting a steal in former Bears quarterback Josh McCown. The Buccaneers drafted speedy wideout Mike Evans with the seventh overall pick in the NFL Draft to help improve their passing attack and added another player that will see plenty of playing time in 2014 and could potentially start in second round pick Austin Seferian-Jenkins. Still, Lovie Smith and company have a way to go to get back into being a postseason contender and I think 2014 will be more of a building year than anything else for the Bucs.
The Falcons may have won just four games last season, but I believe they could be primed for a huge return to prominence after never failing to win less 42
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2014
NFL Preview
and Predictions W
ill a humbled Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos be able to bounce back from their Super Bowl shellacking to cash in as the favorite against their Odds To Win The AFC? Will one team out of a handful of legitimate conference title contenders be able derail Denver ‘s Super Bowl 49 dreams or will the Broncos beat back all challengers in a conference that is clearly inferior to their NFC counterparts? Or… will a ‘surprise’ team rise up to shock everyone and take a conference crown that no one saw coming?
With the 2014 NFL regular season approaching faster than one of those high-speed monorail trains that you’ve never, ever actually seen, I’m going to answer all of the aforementioned questions and more in an effort to help you increase your chances of cashing in consistently over the course of what promises to be an exciting new NFL season. Let’s get started in the AFC West with the odds-onfavorite Broncos.
AFC West Denver Broncos (13-3 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 11-5 O/U)
The Broncos are the odds-on-favorite to win the AFC at a solid +225 – and they certainly look good
on paper after drafting cornerback Bradley Roby and signing veteran corner Chris Harris Jr. to help improve the team’s dismal 27th-ranked pass defense. However, I believe Denver ‘s best offseason acquisition is the addition of former Dallas Cowboys perennial Pro Bowl defensive end DeMarcus Ware that I believe could put this team back in the Super Bowl in consecutive seasons. At a value-packed +650 to win Super Bowl 49, Denver is a great team to wager on in the AFC this season as Peyton Manning has led his teams to double-digit win totals in 11 straight seasons. Still, if you plan on betting on the Broncos in 2014, keep in mind that Manning’s career postseason record is an underwhelming 11-12 SU. Kansas City Chiefs (11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
The Chiefs got off to a fantastic 9-0 start in 2013, but faded down the stretch like the favorite pair of jeans you’ve refuse to get rid of for the last decade. Despite their unimpressive 2-5 finish over their last 11 games, the Chiefs made the playoffs for the first time since 2010 and are a value-packed pick to win Super Bowl 49 at a whopping +5000. Now, heading into the 2014 season, Kansas City is also +1400 to win the AFC and looks to surpass the Wild Card appearance they made last season. However,
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I’m going on record right now to say that it won’t happen unless they improve their 24th-ranked passing attack by adding some vertical passing from quarterback Alex Smith. The Chiefs also need to shore up their uninspiring defense which ranked 25th against the pass and an equally disturbing 22nd. San Diego Chargers (9-7 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 7-9 O/U)
The Chargers went 9-7 last season, but their campaign looks a lot more impressive when you look at the fact that the Bolts closed out their regular season by winning four straight games and five of their last six overall. The Chargers, a +1600 pick to win the AFC, even got some revenge for the only loss they took over the final six weeks of the regular season by upsetting Cincinnati 27- 10 in their Wild Card matchup after losing to the Bengals 17- 10 in Week 13.The main area of need the Chargers had to address this offseason was their dismal 29thranked pass defense and I believe they did a credible job by drafting athletic cornerback Jason Verrett with the 25th overall pick in the draft and speedy linebacker Jeremiah Attaochu with the 50th overall pick. Last but not least, I have to say, there aren’t many quarterbacks in the NFL that are better than formerly, hot-headed signal-caller Philip Rivers. I like San Diego at a value-packed +4000, to take another step forward in their quest to reach Super Bowl 49. Oakland Raiders (4-12 SU, 7-8-1 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
The Oakland Raiders may be a value-packed +8000 to win the AFC in 2014, but let’s be real for a moment…it’s because the floundering franchise recorded their second consecutive 4-12 season under head coach Dennis Allen in 2013 and still have the perennial look of a 6-10 team at best. Oakland has not won more than eight games in a mind-boggling 11 consecutive seasons and even though I love their addition of veteran quarterback Matt Schaub, I just can’t see this team getting over .500, if that, in an AFC West division that has three potential playoff participants. 44
The good news for the Raiders is that they did a very good job of addressing some of their most pressing need this offseason. Oakland drafted athletically-gifted linebacker Khalil Mack with the fifth overall pick in the draft and I think he’s going to really pan out for Oakland . The Raiders also nabbed quarterback Derek Carr with the 36th overall pick and he could also pan out for them in a year or two. Oakland also added veteran running back Maurice Jones-Drew, cornerback Carlos Rodgers, defensive end Justin Tuck and linebacker LaMarr Woodley in free agency. Still, I don’t have a lot of faith in Dennis Allen and I couldn’t advise anyone to lay a single dollar on them even as a whopping +10000 Super Bowl 49 contender…um…I mean pretender.
AFC East New England Patriots (12-4 SU, 8-8 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
You can say whatever you like about Tom Brady and the New England Patriots, but I’ve been telling friends and colleagues alike that I’ve got a funny feeling that the Pats are going to somehow find a way to represent the AFC in Super Bowl 49. I know that Bill Belichick’s team was surprisingly mediocre on defense last season, ranking 18th against the run and a pitiful 30th against the pass, but this team still found a way to win games and eventually challenge for a berth in Super Bowl 48. To address their needs on defense, the Pats drafted space-eating defensive tackle Dominique Easley out of Florida with the 29th pick in the first round while also adding former Seattle Seahawks veteran safety, Brandon Browner and Pro Bowl cornerback Darrelle Revis in free agency. New York Jets (8-8 SU, 9-6-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
The Jets, at +3000 to win the AFC, are up to their usual trash-talking ways this preseason, but I’m thinking they should probably hold off for a while – or at least until Mike Vick replaces an interception-
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
prone Geno Smith at quarterback in oh…let’s say… Week 4. The good news for New York betting backers is the fact that Rex Ryan says the team plans on getting back to more of the ground-and-pound attack that helped them reach consecutive conference title tilts a few years back. The Jets ranked a fantastic sixth in rushing and even more impressive third against the run, but they also finished the 2013 NFL season ranked a pitiful 31st in passing and 22nd against the pass.
finished the 2103 season with just six wins, but they’re clearly heading in the right direction under second-year head coach Doug Marrone and secondyear signal-caller E.J. Manuel. Not only that, but the Bills drafted a player that could very well win the Offensive Player of the Year award in ‘special’ wide receiver Sammy Watkins. The fourth overall pick in the draft possesses a combination of speed and strength that is rarely seen in a wide receiver in any era.
Like the Patriots, I’ve got a funny feeling the Jets, at a whopping +6600 to win Super Bowl 49, are going to have a surprisingly solid 2014 campaign that could land them in the postseason as a Wild Card.
Buffalo, at +7500 to win Super Bowl 49, finished the 2013 season ranked a stellar second in rushing as veteran backs C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson each rushed for at over 890 yards while averaging at least 4.3 yards per carry.
Miami Dolphins
AFC North
(8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-8-1 O/U)
With a lifelong love affair with the once proud franchise, I am admittedly and arguably, the biggest Miami Dolphins fan alive. Having said that…I’m also going on record to say that I have absolutely no faith whatsoever in third-year quarterback Ryan Tannehill or Miami ‘s +1800 odds to win the AFC. The Fins are just 15- 17 in two seasons Under his leadership and his 30 interceptions against 36 career TD passes doesn’t look very good at this point of his young career. Still, I have to admit that head coach Joe Philbin did a masterful job last season even in the midst of arguably the biggest scandal in league history. At +5000 to win Super Bowl 49, Miami doesn’t look like a real good candidate from where I’m sitting, finishing the 2013 season ranked 20th in passing and 26th in rushing on offense while also ranking 16th against the pass and an uninspiring 24th against the run defensively.
(11-5 SU, 10-5-1 ATS, 10-5-1 O/U) +6600
The Bengals may still be looking for their first playoff win in the Andy Dalton era, but I think this could be the season they get it. At a bankroll-boosting +1300 to win the AFC and a stunning +6600 to win Super Bowl 49, the Bengals may be offering more value of any legitimate title contender in either conference. Cincinnati was very solid in every area except rushing the ball where they finished the 2013 ranked 18th. The Bengals ranked eighth in passing and fifth in both, pass and run defense. You can say whatever you like about Dalton and his poor postseason performances, but he’s also one of just three quarterbacks in NFL history to reach the postseason in each of his first three seasons. Baltimore Ravens
Buffalo Bills
(8-8 SU, 7-9 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
(6-10 SU, 8-8 ATS, 10-6 O/U)
What in the name of former franchise superstar O.J. Simpson is going on in Buffalo everyone? The Bills, a +3300 pick to win the AFC, may have
Cincinnati Bengals
The Ravens are +1200 to win the conference and +4000 to win Super Bowl 49, but I gotta’ admit, I’m not a huge fan of quarterback Joe Flacco. Baltimore ranked 18th in passing and a dismal 30th in rushing,
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but the team’s perennially stout defense kept them in playoff contention for the majority of the season as they finished the 2013 season ranked 12th against the pass and 11th against the run. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8 SU, 9-7 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
The Steelers are a +1200 pick to win the AFC and +3300 pick to win Super Bowl 49, but first, Big Ben Roethlisberger and head coach Mike Tomlin must find a way to get this team back in the playoffs for the first time since 2011. The Steelers finished the 2013 season ranked an abysmal 28th in rushing and equally surprising 21st against the run and that just doesn’t sound like Pittsburgh Steelers football as they’ve historically been very good in both of these areas.
Pittsburgh drafted linebacker Ryan Shazier with the 15th overall pick and defensive Stephon Tuitt with the 46th overall pick but it is their free agent additions that I believe could potentially put the Steelers back in the postseason. Pittsburgh added veteran running back LeGarrette Blount, wide receiver Lance Moore, linebacker Arthur Moats and safety Mike Mitchell, among others. Cleveland Browns (4-12 SU, 6-10 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
The Browns may be offering a fantastic return as +2800 pick to win the AFC and +6600 pick to win Super Bowl 49, but that’s because they’re not winning either, despite the arrival of ballyhooed quarterback Johnny Manziel. Cleveland hasn’t won a division crown since 1989, so I wouldn’t go around expecting some sort of miracle in 2014 after seeing this floundering win five games or less in each of the last six seasons. The Browns ranked a pitiful 28th in rushing last season and 18th against the run, but they were pretty solid in passing (11th) and pass defense (8th). Cleveland drafted cornerback Justin Gilbert with the eighth pick in the draft before nabbing Manziel at No.22. Cleveland also did a decent job in free agency by adding safety Donte Whitner, linebacker Karlos Dansby, wide receiver Miles Austin and running back bent ate among others. If Cleveland can get to .500 this season, that would represent a huge step forward in my mind.
AFC South Indianapolis Colts (11-5 SU, 10-6 ATS, 8-8 O/U)
The Colts, at +900 to win the AFC and +1600 to win Super Bowl 49, are looking pretty good heading into the 2014 season if you ask me. Indy has won 11 games in each of quarterback Andrew Luck’s first two seasons in the league and could contend for more than a one-and-done playoff appearance if they can address their ground-based needs on 46
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
both offense and defense. The Colts ranked 21st in rushing last season and a dismal 26th against the run, but they did a solid job of addressing their needs, mostly in free agency. Indy added veteran cornerback Vontae Davis, defensive end Arthur Jones and wide receiver Hakeem Nicks among others. The fact of the matter is that Andrew Luck is arguably the best young signal-caller in the game today and a player that give the Colts a chance to win every time he steps on the field. I mean, it’s not everyday that you find a quarterback that can pull off a mind-boggling seven game-winning drives as a rookie like Luck did during his rookie season in 2012. Tennessee Titans (7-9 SU, 6-8-2 ATS, 9-6-1 O/U)
The Tennessee Titans had a surprisingly solid season in going 7-9 last season, even though starting quarterback Jake Locker missed nine games. Now the Titans have a new head coach in former Arizona Cardinals top man, Ken Whisenhunt, but I’m leery of both, Whiz and the oft-injured Locker. The Titans are a +4000 pick to win the AFC and a +10000 pick to cash in on their Super Bowl 49 futures odds, but I just don’t see them reaching the postseason in 2014 as they ranked in the middle of the pack in every significant statistical category on both offense and defense. Tennessee did add veteran tackle Michael Oher, defensive end Shaun Philips and quarterback Charlie Whitehurst in free agency, but I’ll remain unconvinced until I see otherwise. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-12 SU, 5-10-1 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
The beleaguered Jaguars are a +10000 to win the AFC and a +20000 pick to win Super Bowl 49 but that’s because they have absolutely no chance whatsoever of doing either. Jacksonville drafted quarterback Blake Bortles with the third overall pick in the draft and added a pair of wide receivers with each of their next two picks, but this team ranked 22nd or lower in every statistical category on both sides of the ball, so they’ve clearly got a long uphill climb in front of them.
The Jags didn’t get a whole lot accomplished in free agency either, adding veteran defensive end Chris Clemons and running back Toby Gerhart, but losing longtime running back Maurice Jones-Drew. Maybe it’s me, but I’m thinking this could be Gus Bradley’s final season as the head coach of the Jags – if he doesn’t get fired in season first. Houston Texans (2-14 SU, 4-12 ATS, 9-7 O/U)
The Texans are a surprising +2000 to win the AFC and a whopping +6600 to win Super Bowl 49 and they would have a chance to get back into the postseason – if they had a capable quarterback that is. Lest anyone forget, Houston went 13- 3 in 2012, but became one of the league’s worst teams last season because of what I believe was a bad case of Murphy’s Law. Now, the Texans are remade with Gary Kubiak out as head coach and the widely-respected Bill O’Brien in. Unfortunately, Houston will hang its 2014 hopes on a veteran quarterback that is better suited to being a backup – and a backup quarterback that failed to nail down the starting job that everyone in Houston prayed he could take last season. Ryan Fitzpatrick may have a degree from Harvard, but he’s also got a less-than-glowing 27-49-1 record in nine seasons – and that kind of screams ‘backup’ if you ask me. Backup, case Keenum went 0-8 as a starter last season when given his chance after Matt Schaub’s widely-publicized crash and burn campaign. Sure, the Texans may have nabbed an immense talent in No. 1 overall pick Jadeveon Clowney, but the gifted defensive end can’t help Fitzpatrick or Keenum throw the ball, so it could be a very long season in Huston again in 2014. Houston nabbed guard Xavier Su’a-Filo with the first pick in the second round and tight end CJ Fiedorowicz with the 65th overall pick but I’m expecting Houston to struggle early on as O’Brien puts his imprints all over the new-look Texans.
Offshore Football Betting Guide 2014
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