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Weak State Regime Security A Theoretical & Practical Guide
FM 3 -24 3
MCW P
COU NTE RINS URG ENC Y
Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
-33.5
The Weak State Strong State
Weak State
Idea
Idea
Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
?
BureauTerritory cracy
X
Bureaucracy
Weak State Threat Assessment 1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population;
Idea
Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Bureaucracy
3. State capacity which is insufficient to provide security; and 4. Threat perceptions that are internal rather than external.
Weak State Threat Assessment 1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population;
Idea
Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Bureaucracy
3. State capacity which is insufficient to provide security; and 4. Threat perceptions that are internal rather than external.
Weak State Threat Assessment 1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population;
Idea
Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Bureaucracy
Weak State Threat Assessment 1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population;
Idea
Territory Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Bureaucracy
3. State capacity which is insufficient to provide security; and
Weak State Threat Assessment FM 3-24 .5 -33
MCWP 3
Y URGENC S N I R E T COUN
Idea
Bureaucracy
ER 2006
DECEMB
Territory
N: STRICTIO unlimited. TION RE ribution is DISTRIBU lease; dist r public re fo ed ov Appr
Y ARTERS HEADQU NT OF THE ARM E M T R DEPA
Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
1. A disjuncture between Nation and State; 2. A regime that lacks support of significant portion of population; 3. State capacity which is insufficient to provide security; and 4. Threat perceptions that are internal rather than external.
State Territory
Religious Movements
War Lords / Drug Barons
Security Forces
Regime/ State Administration State
Patronage Tribal / Ethnic Power
Local & Self Defence
Ideal Type: Weak State is “only one organisation in a mélange within the boundaries in which it seeks to rule” Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Insecurity Dilemma Society itself is a threat to the regime security. The more the regime tries to establish effective state rule, the more they provoke challenges to their authority from powerful groups in society. Provokes Arming of Society
Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Provokes
State Failure to Provide Security
Administrative Complex When the Institutions of the State are a Threat to the Regime When? Ministries and Armed forces. Especially where rents can be exploited or coercive power accumulated. What? Can emerge as potential rivals to the regime. But, Regime Security requires some institutions. Administrative Institutions
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Require Compromise
Regime Security
Administrative Complex Strategies for Control: Use excessive control to compromise the efficiency of the organisations; or Proliferation of institutions to balance one off of another.
Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Referent Object & Threat Perception Matrix
Regime Threat Perception
Referent Object
Referent Object
Society
-
Threat Perception
-
Regime/State
Society
Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
They’re Tenacious! How do they do it, despite the dilemmas?
Ali Abdullah Saleh North Yemen, then Yemen Since 1978 Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Muammar al-Gaddafi Lybia Since 1969
Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo Equatorial Guinea Since 1979.
e: s yU
e h T
Regime Security Strategies
Elite Accommodation; Ethnic Manipulation; Violent Repression Potemkin Democratisation; Private Military Contractors / Other Outside Actors; and Super Power Alignment and Regional Defence Agreements. Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Regime Security Strategy 1 of 6
Elite Accommodation
The art of making arrangements with key elite throughout society to ensure regime security and a semblance of sovereignty Who? Warlords, political leaders with private armies, or potential opposition. What? Resources either legal or illegal: control over a particular area, state resources diverted their way exclusive control over a particular commercial activity
Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Regime Security Strategy 1 of 6
Elite Accommodation
The art of making arrangements with key elite throughout society to ensure regime security and a semblance of sovereignty
What does the regime get back? an agreement not to try and overthrow the regime or encroach on its other activities. What does it cost? Resources or other valuable concessions.
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Regime Security Strategy 1 of 6
Corruption
Corruption is a critical component of successful elite accommodation; Elite accommodation supports cascading patronage networks.
Good International Less Support
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Tolerate Cosmetic Measures Corruption Maintain Elite Patronage Networks
Regime More Security
Regime Security Strategy 2 of 6
Ethnic Manipulation Favour certain groups in the allocation of state resources Oppress minorities viewed as hostile Create minority scapegoat groups during times of unrest Appoint members of the elite’s own ethnic group to positions of power
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Regime Security Strategy 3 of 6
Repression When regime lacks the capacity or resources to accommodate opposition challenges or to counter their claims with reforms
Resort to Political violence. Low success rate Use as last resort.
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Regime Security Strategy 4 of 6
Potempkin Democratization What? Construction of the outward appearance of democracy without facing true competition. Why? Regimes can improve international standing and support.
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Regime Security Strategy 5 of 6
Bring in the Mercenaries! Why? To avoid creating domestic centres of power outside the regime. What? Turn to outside support for services such as security, logistics and administration, public relations, and resource extraction.
Tim
e p S Me
r e c n
n rce
ary
Eeben B arlow Mercen ary
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Regime Security Strategy 6 of 6
Superpower/Regional Defence
e providers should nd that outsiders r improve regime hrough the n of ‘friends in on/Brussels/ don’ or compromise egitimacy through ns of inadequacy.
The Cold-war is over, but the ‘War on Terror,’ and US/China rivalry offer new opportunities for superpower protection. Regional defence compacts with neighbouring states may provide security without the costs of superpower alignment. Be careful, foreign backing may come at the expense of domestic legitimacy, esp. on the arabian peninsula.
Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
See the Next Slides for Development Implications and Sources
Good Luck
Skye Christensen / Intelect.info
Implications for International Development The Insecurity Dilemma means that institutional building strategies in weak states may only provoke violent opposition.
Ethnic Manipulation means politics is a realm of existential security threats for the actors involved.
Elite accommodation systems that hinder development also hamper development assistance.
Potempkin Democratization strategies underline the importance of careful assessment whenever electoral assistance is provided.
When combined with an administrative complex, regime security interests clash with institution building, anticorruption, and rule of law promotion.
Sources Buzan, B. 1991. People, states and fear: an agenda for international security studies in the post-Cold War era. Collins, A. 2007. Contemporary security studies: Oxford University Press, USA. Job, BL. 1992. The insecurity dilemma: National, regime, and state securities in the third world. The insecurity dilemma: National security of third world states: 11-36.
Kinsey, C. 2007. Private Security Companies: Agents of Democracy or Simply Mercenaries? Private Military and Security Companies, VS Verlag f存r Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden: 87単107. Migdal, JS. 1988. Strong societies and weak states: state-society relations and state capabilities in the Third World: Princeton Univ Pr. Reno, W. 1999. Warlord politics and African states: Lynne Rienner Pub.