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Will Cué tackle regime change in Oaxaca?
New ‘alliance’ governors face daunting challenges as they confront entrenched political structures, none more so than Gabino Cué who must exercise far-reaching vision : 18 FRIDAY 17 December, 2010 Mexico City Year 00 00
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MEX$25 EUR€2 US•CAN USD 3.50
New year likely to get short shrift due to Los Pinos fever : POLITICS 6
Landmark ruling could help Pemex turn on oil spigot : ECONOMY & FINANCE 16
U2, Lady Gaga highlight concert calendar in 2011 : LIFE & LEISURE 22
Authorities dismiss charges of favoritism in drug war : SECURITY 30
Is your information on Mexico reliable? Mainstream mass media aren’t going to give you a comprehensive idea as to what’s happening in Mexico, but we can. Our corporate intelligence reports provide thorough insight on specific political figures, industries, trends and current events. Our English-language corporate intelligence reports – one-of-a-kind in Mexico – include extensive analysis on news topics that impact your investments or interests. We can research anything that’s going on in the news – potential presidential contenders, state governors, the auto industry, sugar-cane production, pet food sales and technology use in classroom – and put it into context. Mexico Today, Eficiencia Informativa and C3 have access to a database that collects thousands of stories each day from hundreds of sources of Mexican mass media. We use information from written media – news stories, columns, editorials, investigative reports – as well as web, radio and TV broadcasts. Our reports include an eclectic and perceptive approach that will help you make educated investment decisions.
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INVESTING IN MEXICO? Investing in a foreign country always implies certain risks, no matter if in Mexico or elsewhere; you donâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t know if you are knocking on the right door. If you focus only on the negative aspects you may lose important opportunities that arise from other markets. Reading the headlines in a country where bad press prevails wonâ&#x20AC;&#x2122;t provide you with an accurate picture as to what is going on. Mexico is unique in its politics, society, legal system and many other aspects compared to the United States. There are more than 100,000 foreign companies with investments in Mexico; almost 20,000 of them are from the U.S. and, for some of them, their Mexican operation represents a big chunk of their total production and/or revenues worldwide. Not to mention nearly a million American and some 300,000 Canadian expats, not including other nationalities, live in Mexico. How do you know if you are approaching the right people? The right lawyer or accountant? You might need an expert to guide you along the way. Consider consulting Celta Business Advisory Group to better understand the right way of doing business in Mexico. Celta Business Advisory Group In the US call us at 1 (888) 900 8034 Toll free within the US 1 (949) 680 4336 From outside the US Fax 1 (949) 258 5373
LETTERS
EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR
Boring year on the horizon? ... Not likely What to expect in 2011? Some experts say next year could be
politically boring, with the likely nomination of State of Mexico Gov. Enrique Peña Nieto as the PRI presidential candidate wrapping up the 2012 presidential election: A scenario wherein a PRI president returns to Los Pinos. And the economy? Many analysts are betting on a stable recovery for Mexico that will translate into growth and employment. Others have high hopes that as the Calderón administration begins to wind down, there will be a respite on the security front and the government’s strategy to reduce crime and violence in Mexico will finally produce results.
Considering 2010, it would be great if Mexico had a “boring” year with little surprises in the political, financial and security front. Unfortunately, I am betting that 2011 will be fascinating, perhaps even a turbulent time for Mexico. For example, so much could happen to derail Peña Nieto’s presidential ambitions – such as a PRI loss in the State of Mexico gubernatorial election against an “unholy” but potentially very effective PAN-PRD alliance. What will happen with Calderón’s stalled legislative agenda? Our economic recovery could potentially be blindsided by events and crisis outside of Mexico. En fin … What about the violence? Can it really get worse? That’s why we spoke to experts for this edition of Mexico Weekly – Jorge Chabat, Roberto Salinas-León, Luis de la Calle (watch his interview on our website) and John Ackerman, among others – to offer a glimpse of what may await us in 2011. But we do more than just look at 2011. That’s why we placed the governor of Oaxaca on the cover. I met Gabino Cué when he was the mayor of Oaxaca City. At the time, it was unimaginable that the PRI would lose its stranglehold on that state, but a pragmatic coalition between the left and the right turned the trick. How does one govern when your support comes from a divided PRD and a divided PAN. Are politicians like Cué the future of Mexico? Also, don’t miss our piece on education, one of the biggest challenges this country faces. The solutions appear to be daunting. To get a closer look at the war on drugs, you should read Malcolm Beith’s contribution to this issue. Malcolm is a brilliant journalist and the author of “The Last Narco.” His article is an eye-opener. Not everything in Mexico is politics and finance. So we indulge in the holiday cheer by providing you with suggestions about how to celebrate the season in Mexico. Offering an experiment with Christmas foods is our way of highlighting how wonderful the holiday season can be in a country like Mexico. Wishing you a safe, fun and restful “Guadalupe-Reyes” season, Ana Maria Salazar Executive Director anamaria.salazar@mexicotoday.com.mx @MEXICOTODAY_MX
4 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
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Partisanship vs statesmanship Congress is likely to be an electoral battleground in 2011 as key elections will distract attention from legislative duties, killing hopes of compromises : 6
JUSTICE
Judges shoulder heavy workload in 12 months
The Supreme Court and federal tribunals across the country resolved more than 1 million cases in 2010, Chief Justice Guillermo Ortiz Mayagoitia said in his year-end rep ort. Ortiz’s four-year term as chief justice ended on Dec. 15. The new chief justice will be selected in January. President Calderón still has one vacancy to fill on the Supreme Court.
MEXICO CITY
CONGRESS
MAYOR ‘AFRAID’ OF NEW PARTIES?
Members of a new Mexico City political party – Partido de la Ciudad – criticized electoral code reforms championed by Mayor Marcelo Ebrard that make it more difficult for new parties to win formal registration.
YET ANOTHER BILL IN THE WASTE BIN
PRI deputies scuttled discussion of their own Labor Reform Bill on the final day of the congressional session after internal divisions arose. The PAN asked that a special session be convened to debate the reform.
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 5
NOTIMEX PHOTO/JOSÉ PAZOS
www.mexicotoday.com.mx/information/politics
POLITICS
LOOKING AHEAD
Pointing toward 2012
NOTIMEX PHOTO/JORGE GONZALEZ
T
his year has seen dramatic political maneuvering across the nation, a rising war of words between Congress and Los Pinos and a steady dose of violence as President Calderón’s battle against drug cartels heads into its fifth year. 2010 was supposed to be a year of dealmaking, the final best chance for Calderón and the legislature to hammer out muchneeded reforms before the critical election years of 2011 and 2012 disrupted all hope of political negotiations. Actions failed to live up to words, however, and we now must look toward 2013 as the next chance for structural transformation. Still, 2010 will be remembered for several historic achievements and remarkable events. In the strange bedfellows category, the PAN and the PRD teamed up to win three key gubernatorial races in July, but the marriage was almost immediately on the rocks as hard-line elements within both parties began to question the wisdom of the relationship. New governors took office in six states facing a broad variety of challenges and six other governors elected in 2010 will be sworn in over the next few weeks, including alliance candidates in Sinaloa and Puebla. At the federal level, Congress and the president staged epic battles that did little but produce inflammatory rhetoric and stagnate government productivity. One would be hard-pressed to point out consequential legislation and, more ominously, mandated proceedings – such as the selection of councilors for the Federal Electoral Institute – fell by the wayside. Political parties have undergone varying degrees of internal strife as a sizeable roster of actors preferred to focus on the 2012 presidential election instead of doing the people’s business. 2011 promises more of the same, but with the possibility of greater friction. The
High expectations for 2010 went unfulfilled while opportunites for structural reform were wasted. However, chances to gather momentum and make changes in the coming year likely will be set aside as the political class focuses on the presidential succession.
Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard has his sights
Andrés Manuel López Obrador will continue his
on a presidential run.
high-profile, barnstorming campaign.
election calendar opens with two contests in PRD-held states on back-to-back weekends, but the majority of attention will be focused on the State of Mexico where, many analysts predict, the fate of the 2012 campaign will be greatly determined.
is the darling of several media conglomerates. So the state election is considered a test case for the 2012 presidential campaign as the PAN and the PRD are desperate to dent Peña Nieto’s well-groomed image by defeating the PRI in his home state and stunting his gathering momentum. The 2011 state elections are also marked by the widening schism in the PRD which will be defending gubernatorial seats in the first two elections of the year. Andrés Manuel López Obrador has declared he will not support a PAN-PRD alliance in the
STATE ELECTIONS: EYES ON THE PRIZE
The crown jewel of 2011 is the State of Mexico gubernatorial race. Current Gov. Enrique Peña Nieto is heavily favored to win the PRI presidential nomination and
6 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
NOTIMEX PHOTO/FRANCISCO CONTRERAS
ELECTIONS
Gov. Enrique Peña Nieto is determined to ride victory on July 3 all the way to Los Pinos.
POLITICS
candidate, opening the factional split that still plagues the PRD today. The likelihood of the PRD retaining the governor’s palace seems slim as López Obrador has been reluctant to throw his support behind PRD candidate Ángel Aguirre, who left the PRI after he failed to win that party’s nomination. The Labor Party and Convergencia are on board with Aguirre in an alliance called Guerrero Nos Une. The PRI is running behind Manuel Añorve, the former interim mayor of Acapulco who stepped down in August to start his campaign for governor. The PAN candidate is Marcos Efrén Parra. Añorve enjoys a slim lead in the polls. FEB. 6
NOTIMEX PHOTO/FRANCISCO GARCIA
Baja California Sur – The PRD won the
State of Mexico and he seems determined to provoke the PRD leadership in any way possible with only one goal in mind – running for president in 2012. The PAN faces an uphill battle as the rebounding economy is not creating enough jobs and the death toll from the drug war steadily rises, while internal party jousting has prevented President Calderón and 2012 hopefuls from sending a positive message to the electorate. New party leader Gustavo Madero must placate the internal factions and establish unity.
JAN. 30
gubernatorial election in 1999 behind Leonel Cota, who would go on to become a controversial and mostly ineffective PRD president (2005-08). There is a four-way race for governor featuring three alliance candidates – Marcos Alberto Covarrubias (PAN and the local Partido de Renovación Sudcaliforniana); Ricardo Barroso (PRI and Green Party); Luis Armando Díaz (PRD and Labor Party); Blanca Meza Torres (New Alliance Party). Here, López Obrador has called on his followers to boycott the election, saying none of the candidates merits his support. The more interesting race is in the municipality of Los Cabos, where Cota is running under the Convergencia banner. Cota resigned from the PRD in a huff in September after his successor, Narciso Agúndez, imposed Díaz as the gubernatorial candidate instead of using an internal vote. Cota, the most popular politician in BCS, will run for mayor of the important tourist destination against the governor’s brother, Antonio Agúndez.
JULY 3
Guerrero – Gov. Zeferino Torreblanca end-
ed 77 years of PRI dominance in the impoverished state with a stunning win in 2005. The PRD also won the municipal seat of Acapulco behind Félix Salgado, a founding member of the leftist party, but his term was marked by growing drug violence and political controversy. In the municipal elections of 2008, infighting destroyed the PRD’s chances to win in Acapulco (the PRI’s José Luis Ávila Sánchez won). López Obrador campaigned for the Convergencia
State of Mexico – A real donnybrook is shaping up here, enervated by Gov. Peña Nieto’s successful reform of state electoral law that more narrowly defines alliance candidates and reduces campaigns. Opposition parties object to the potential loss of public funding under the new alliance candidate rules and they say shorter campaigns favor the PRI as the incumbent party. The PRD and the PAN are suffering epic headaches over the wisdom of joining forces to select an alliance candidate and the
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 7
POLITICS
ELECTIONS
internal sniping will come to a head by March when candidates must be nominated. Former Mexico City Mayor Alejandro Encinas of the PRD and former Education Secretary Josefina Vázquez Mota of the PAN have been mentioned as contenders. López Obrador has said he will select his own candidate. Peña Nieto is carefully weighing his options . Coahuila – Gov. Humberto Moreira is stepping down to run for the PRI leadership post and there has been speculation that he will try to impose his brother Rubén as his successor. In yet another state that has never been ruled by anybody but the PRI, the PAN has endorsed the idea of a coalition. The PRI presently presides over local governments in 33 of the state’s 38 municipalities. Nayarit – In early December, the PAN and the PRD signed an agreement to look for an alliance candidate. The two parties teamed up with the Labor Party to win the governor’s chair in 1999 behind Antonio Echevarría Domínguez. His wife, Marta Elena García, was blocked from running to succeed him, but now the federal deputy seems poised to try again. Though a member of the PRD, she enjoys support from the PAN and Convergencia. NOV. 13
Michoacán – The PRD has resided in
the governor’s mansion since 2002 but the state has suffered tremendously since the rise of the La Familia drug cartel. Last year, federal prosecutors arrested dozens of PRD politicians for alleged links to traffickers, though all but one case was eventually dismissed. Deputy Julio César Godoy – the half-brother of Gov. Leonel Godoy – was stripped of his federal immunity on Dec. 14 due to alleged links to La Familia, which controls large swaths of the state. President Calderón’s sister, Luisa María, has expressed interest in running for the PAN, but the ongoing drug war likely will diminish her chances as the relationship between federal and state authorities continues to deteriorate. Morelia Mayor Fausto Vallejo of the PRI might be well positioned to step in as his performance running the state capital has been well received. TOM BUCKLEY / MEXICO WEEKLY
Coahuila Gov. Humberto Moreira is running unopposed to become the PRI party president.
Running in Quicksand The PRI projects a growing semblance of unity, but the PRD must come to terms with potentially crippling internal divisions; Congress is expected to remain ineffective as elections heighten partisanship
W
hile electoral politics will be volatile in 2011, legislative politics and partisan politics will offer a mixed bag. The first four months of the year might mark the end of genuine politicking. The PRD is set to select a new party leader in March and will be desperate to avoid the devastating infighting that has plagued previous internal elections. It took six months for a winner to be determined in the previous leadership vote and that only led to further strife. “The eight genuinely leftist factions in
8 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
the PRD … wanted to replace Jesús Ortega in December,” said Ross Gandy, professor emeritus at UNAM’s ENEP-Aragón college. “But the resulting division would have crippled the party ahead of state elections in … January and February.” Gandy says that the PRD should hold the leadership election in its National Council, because if it is conducted as an open election (as it was in 2008) “the resulting split will cripple the PRD ahead of the July elections in the State of Mexico, Nayarit and Coahuila.”
POLITICS
NOTIMEX PHOTOCOURTESY
PARTIES, CONGRESS
“This is
not a new PRI in spite of the new faces. ” John Ackerman UNAM’s Institute of Juridical Investigations
NOTIMEX PHOTOCOURTESY
NOTIMEX PHOTO/GUILLERMO AVILA
Embattled PRD leader Jesús Ortega will step down in March.
Gustavo Madero, left, has yet to reach out to Roberto Gil Zuarth, right, after winning the PAN vote.
“How many people would vote for a party paralyzed by internal conflict?” he asked. The PRI’s internal process seems more cut and dried as the former ruling party is determined to avoid the division that cost it so dearly in 2006. Humberto Moreira appears likely to be the only candidate and he should succeed Beatriz Paredes in March or April. At the same time, Congress will be holding its abbreviated Spring Session, and the legislative docket will be packed with items overlooked in the hasty year-end rush to
conduct business, including filling three IFE vacancies and judicial reform. As the largest party in Congress, the PRI can control the agenda, but progress is unlikely. “The last chance for any meaningful reforms will be in the Spring Session but things are heating up politically,” said John Ackerman of UNAM’s Institute of Juridical Investigations. “The PRI is happy with the status quo. For them it is more important to keep Calderón from ‘winning;’ they want to promote their own interests, not strengthen democracy or institutions.”
Ackerman pointed out that since the PRI and their Green Party allies took control of Congress in September 2009, no major legislation has been promoted. He said the failure to appoint three IFE councilors since October portends continuing legislative gridlock. And it isn’t just parliamentary posturing. PRI Sen. Manlio Fabio Beltrones and PRI president Beatriz Paredes have engaged in name-calling as they play the blame game. Beltrones has called the PAN “inept and inefficient,” has accused Calderón of being “polarizing” and angrily rejected the president’s call for action on judicial reforms, before backtracking and saying the Senate would deliberate “despite the president’s intervention.” Paredes recently decried Calderón’s “provocative speeches that seek to corner [the PRI] and rally his party.” Union developments will also be in the spotlight in 2011. The government continues to pursue legal action against fugitive miners union leader Napoleón Gómez Urrutia while former union official Carlos Pavón challenges Gómez from within. The SME electrical workers union has re-elected controversial Martín Esparza but dissident former members have sought legal injunctions to keep him from having access to the union’s healthy bank accounts. Finally, the annual teachers union demonstrations during collective contract negotiations in May and June will be closely watched, especially in Oaxaca where new Gov. Gabino Cué might face his first big challenge in the state where teachers and civic groups fought back against government repression in 2006. TOM BUCKLEY / MEXICO WEEKLY
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 9
POLITICS
HEALTH CARE
: GOALS
HIV AND AIDS PREVALENCE IN MEXICO
2003 Year Mexico
Dec. 1 marked World AIDS Day. While AIDS mortality is declining in Mexico, it is unlikely the nation meets the UN Millenium Development Goal by 2015.
began offering universal antiretroviral treatment
4.5 per 100,000 mortality rate in 2009, down 0.4 points from 2008
3.5 per 100,000 by 2015 U.N. Mil-
BAJA CALIFORNIA
9.1 5.4% 9
lennium Development Goal for AIDS mortality rate
CHIHUAHUA
6.4 4.2% 6
GULF OF MEXICO NUEVO LEÓN
1.4 0.4% 0
MEXICO
ZACATECAS
NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN
JALISCO
Mortality rates per 100,000 in 2008 National percentage of AIDS deaths in 2008
4 5.4% 14
2
3.1 8.7% 12
10.7 15% 9 MEXICO VERACRUZ CITY
STATE OF MEXICO
11.1 4.4% 2
PEOPLE LIVING WITH HIV, AIDS 180,000 220,000 225,000
4.8 5% 12
National low
AIDS-RELATED DEATHS 4,723 (2004) 4,831 4,880
ESTIMATED NUMBER OF NEW HIV INFECTIONS NA 10,189 9,880
: HIV, AIDS PREVALENCE, MORTALITY AND TREATMENT
HIV prevalence in adults in the Americas, ages 15 to 49, 2009 Mexico - 0.3 percent United States - 0.6 percent Canada - 0.3 percent Argentina - 0.5 percent Belize - 2.3 percent Nicaragua - 0.2 percent Brazil - 0.6 percent (2007) Chile - 0.4 percent
AIDS mortality in men, women 2000 - 3,573 / 646 2002 - 3,762 / 717 2004 - 3,907 / 816 2006 - 4,093 / 856 2007 - 4,170 / NA
AIDS incidence per 100,000 2000 - 8.6 2005 - 8.2 2009 - 5
AIDS transmission
93.6 % - sexual contact 4.2 % - intravenous needle use, blood transfusion 2.2 % - prenatal
People with access to antiretroviral treatment 2000 - 10,189, 23.41 percent* 2005 - 31,951, 46.34 percent* 2008 - 52,462, 52.37 percent*
10 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
QUINTANA ROO
TABASCO
: AIDS, HIV IN MEXICO YEAR 2005 2009 2010
2 1.8% 3
CHIAPAS
National high
Number of HIV/AIDS civil organizations
Public HIV/ AIDS spending
4.3 3.7% 15
1
5.8 9.8% 95
: COSTS
* MEDICINE, SERVICES FROM PUBLIC HOSPITALS
Prevention - 26 percent, 1.3 billion pesos Treatment - 71 percent, 3.7 billion pesos Other - 3 percent, 138 million pesos Total - 5.17 billion pesos, 2009 6,500 pesos monthly cost of basic antiretroviral treatment in 2009 30 pesos - cost of three condoms
65.8%
144,127
27.1%
5:1
HIV, AIDS CASES occur among people ages 25-44, 2009
PEOPLE WITH AIDS live in D.F., State of Mexico
TOTAL AIDS CASES in men and women, 1983 to 2010
RATIO of AIDS cases men to women
65,193, or 55.8%
of men with AIDS 25 to 39 years, 1983 to 2010
12,356, or 48.9% of women with AIDS 25 to 39 years
SOURCES: “HIV/AIDS IN MEXICO” 2005, 2009 AND 2010 REPORTS BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR THE PREVENTION AND CONTROL OF HIV/AIDS; “EPIDEMIOLOGICAL OUTLOOK OF HIV/AIDS AND STI’S IN MEXICO,” DEC. 31, 2005, BY THE NATIONAL COUNCIL TO PREVENT AND CONTROL HIV/AIDS; 2010 “HIV PREVALENCE MAP” BY UNAIDS; CENTER FOR DISEASE CONTROL; INEGI
NOTIMEX PHOTO/CARLOS PACHECO
SOCIAL ISSUES
Students in Puebla in an outdoor classroom hold a sign asking that a new school be built.
Education system gets failing grades Authorities scrap Enciclomedia for program favored by union officials, throwing money at new project as performance suffers
The education system has taken a pounding in recent months. A reduction in the national education budget and poor results in a global survey paint a gloomy picture for the future of public education. The difficulties facing education in Mexico are as diverse as they are numerous. Stand-out problems include the lack of funding, disagreement as to the most effective methods, poorly trained teachers and a teachers union that, according to campaigners for educational reform known as Muévete Por La Educación, “exerts an authority and influence far beyond the defense of labor rights.” Given that the federal budget was approved at the end of November, recent attention has predominantly focused on funding, or the lack of it. During Vicente Fox’s term as president, a new educational system called Enciclomedia was introduced with much fanfare. Computers and interactive white boards were installed in schools across the country so that lessons could become more interactive. Enciclomedia itself refers to the
software program that digitalized all the standard textbooks and contains multimedia teaching resources and exercises for the pupils. However, after years of investment, the project was effectively scrapped due to a budget reduction approved by the Chamber of Deputies at the end of November. Funding for the project was cut by 90 percent from 4,708,000 pesos this year to only 596,000 pesos in 2011. Undersecretary for Basic Education Fernando González, who happens to be the son-in-law of the leader of the teachers union, will get to implement his new pet project instead. Digital Capabilities For All, or HDT using the Spanish acronym, will be rolled out next year and Enciclomedia will be subsumed in its wake. HDT is a multimedia program much like Enciclomedia but will apparently employ more advanced software and technology. The about-face in pedagogical approach is baffling given the substantial investment already made in Enciclomedia. Granted, technology moves on and requires updating but it is difficult to rationalize why a whole new system is being implemented rather than modernizing Enciclomedia.
POLITICS
The stated aim of both projects is to improve the quality of education but according to Rubén Edel Navarro, specialist in educational visual aids, installing technology in schools is not enough. “[There is not] a direct correlation between the use of technology and academic improvement,” he said. “The installation of computers in schools is worthless without instructing the teachers in their use.” POOR TEST SCORES
What is clear is that the current system is not improving educational standards. The Program for International Student Assessment, or PISA, surveyed the educational performance of 15-year-olds in over 65 countries worldwide. The survey, released at the beginning of December, was undertaken by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development, or OECD, and tests in literacy, mathematics and science. Mexico ranked a dismal second from last among OECD countries, although the pupils did register a small improvement in mathematics since the previous survey in 2006. What is striking about the PISA results is the analysis in relation to school resources and spending. According to the survey, around 90 percent of the national education budget is swallowed up in teachers’ salaries. Indeed, relative to national income, Mexican teachers earn the highest salaries of all OECD countries. As so much of the budget is directed toward salaries, schools are drastically under-resourced. In Mexico, cumulative spending per child over a 9-year period is less than $25,000, while in the United States it reaches $100,000. It is not just funding issues that are crippling the education system. In a press conference to announce its campaign for educational reform, Muévete Por La Educación said that its aim is to “reassign educational responsibilities so that the state recovers its authority over education from the teachers union.” The strength of the SNTE teachers union and the opaque nature of its teacher selection, promotion and use of resources is a clear obstacle to the development of education. However, without a sufficient education budget, it is not possible to lay sole blame on the SNTE for the education system’s failings. REBECCA CONAN / MEXICO WEEKLY
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 11
BRIEFS
: fact : back : next BACK
FACT
Creel confident of chances in 2012
Sen. Santiago Creel seems to be using the same playbook that helped Felipe Calderón win the PAN nomination in 2005. Creel celebrated his 56th birthday on Dec. 11 and on Dec. 12 told the media that he intended to run for president again. His boast that he could defeat PRI golden boy Enrique Peña Nieto and Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard in an election earned headlines.
Newly elected PAN president Gustavo Madero immediately criticized Creel for jumping the gun, saying it was an unnecessary distraction that could disrupt the party from focusing on more important matters. Calderón was touted as a presidential candidate a full two years before the 2006 presidential election and was chided by President Fox even though his chances were not considered good. Calderón quit the Fox Cabinet and played the role of “disobedient son” while cozying up to party officials, eventually surprising the heavily favored Creel in the PAN primary.
FABRICIO VANDEN BROECK
Salinas stirs the political pot
Carlos Salinas de Gortari launched his new book at a Mexico City press conference and set off a round of political fireworks with comments about Andrés Manuel López Obrador, Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard and Jorge Castañeda, among others. Salinas slammed López Obrador as a “neopopulist” and a “Juanito” (an incompetent puppet politician) and called Ebrard, a former Salinas appointee, “a professional.” López Obrador responded by saying it was “a badge of honor to be attacked by the mafia boss,” suggesting that Salinas was afraid that his movement would triumph in 2012. Ebrard said Salinas was “trying to damn him with praise” and “confuse the voting public.” NEXT
The greening of the capital
Mexico City boroughs will have to create new green areas every year if a bill in the Federal District Legislative Assembly becomes law. The bill, passed out of committee on Dec. 9, mandates that each of the capital’s 16 boroughs must increase designated green areas by 5 percent each year and develop and maintain gardens along roadways and on sidewalks.
Tortilla price spike threat countered by tough warning
The announcement by the National Tortilla Industry that prices would rise 20 percent was met by swift condemnation. An Economy Secretariat official criticized the “opportunism” and “abusive trade practices.” The Federal Competition Commission said it would investigate possible monopolistic practices and collusion in the industry.
search on web:
Under the microscope
Former Zacatecas Gov. Amalia García remains in the spotlight as her successor said the probe into her administration’s spending would continue next year. State officials have raised questions about 1.5 billion pesos in spending under García and the local comptroller is looking into unaccounted for spending for construction and infrastructure that remains unfinished.
Labor sanctions SME vote
The Labor Secretariat officially recognized Martín Esparza as leader of the SME electrical workers union on Dec. 14. Esparza was denied recognition earlier this year after complaints about voting irregularities in an earlier election. Esparza and his supporters have been campaigning against the government decision to close down the Central Power and Light company.
www.mexicotoday.com.mx/information/briefs
12 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
www.mexicotoday.com.mx/information/economy
New era in oil sector?
NOTIMEX PHOTOS
The Supreme Court threw out legislators’ objections so now Pemex can solicit limited private sector involvement : 16
AVIATION
Mexicana on road back but creditors still waiting
Troubled airline Mexicana has turned the corner and might be back in the skies in early 2011, provided it can make a deal with 51 percent of its creditors, the Transportation Secretariat has said. PC Capital has taken over the task of restructuring the airline giant, signing a deal with pilots, air stewards and ground crew unions.
BANKING
TRAINS
SIX STATES FOCUS IN LOAN DEFAULTS
Central Bank data reveals that defaults on bank loans in Mexico are concentrated in six states. Zacatecas, Nuevo León, Nayarit, Michoacán, Jalisco and Chihuahua have suffered almost the entirety of these defaults.
NEW MULTIMODAL TERMINAL ON TAP
Kansas City Southern de México, or KCSM, has invested $70 million to build a new railroad terminal in the port city of Lázaro Cárdenas, Michoacán. KCSM controls 40 percent of all train cargo in Mexico.
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 13
ECONOMY &FINANCE
LOOKING AHEAD
PHOTO COURTESY OF FLICKR
[Economic] “growth is in the
Mexico could become the darling of emerging markets again, especially as Brazil is getting to be too pricey.
Steady as she goes
Mexico’s economy displays remarkable stability but the lack of structural reforms limits opportunities for growth Mexico’s economic outlook for 2011, while not rosy, can be categorized as reasonably optimistic. Although most economists agree that GDP will grow in 2011, projections rarely rise above the 3-percent range. No surprise that the broad consensus is that exports will continue to drive the economy, but the lack of much-needed reforms will hold back any real chance of sustainable growth. “We can expect to enjoy macroeconomic stability, something we haven’t been able to take for granted,” said Dr. Deborah Riner, the chief economist at the American Chamber of Commerce of Mexico. “And this certainty will be important for investors and consumers.” Still, Dr. Riner sees the economy slowing in 2011, dropping from just over 5 percent in 2010 to just under 3 percent in 2011. “On the not so positive side, we will continue to see inadequate job creation,” Riner says. “The government is not carrying out the reforms necessary for sustainable growth.”
Macario Schettino, a finance columnist, agrees and he sees little chance for progress on the reform front since 2011 is a key election year. Political parties will focus on blocking progressive legislation that might benefit another party. “The PRI is blocking the PAN’s labor reform bill,” Schettino said. “And the reforms to the anti-monopoly law will start from scratch next session after efforts by the PRI to weaken the Federal Competition Commission were stymied.” Despite the political posturing, growth will be the watchword, even if the economy slows down measurably. “[We won’t be] battling recession or depression, it will continue to be a question of rebound,” says Dr. Roberto Salinas-León, director general of the Mexico Business Forum. “And this won’t be strengthened by countercyclical or monetary policies, but by productivity.” Even so, public spending on infrastructure is a likely strategy and a stronger U.S. market will also be
14 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
key, says Dr. Luis de la Calle, a consultant who, while in the public sector, helped negotiate NAFTA and the European free trade agreement. “Even though the U.S. economy is not growing at full speed, exports to the U.S. continue to grow,” de la Calle told Mexico Weekly. Economists agree that the most dynamic sectors in 2011 will be export focused, with auto parts, automobiles and avionics identified as particularly strong. If risks from abroad are contained and the U.S. economy grows, Mexico might again challenge Brazil as the darling of emerging markets. But that doesn’t mean it will be smooth sailing. “2011 will be a very challenging year because despite signs of a mild recovery in the United States, many risks remain both on the deflationary mentality front and because there are potential bubbles due to the massive amounts of monetary stimuli we’ve seen distributed throughout the global economy,” says Dr. Roberto Salinas León, director general of the Mexico Business Forum. TOM BUCKLEY / MEXICO WEEKLY
rebound stage … but gains in 2009 are only catching up to the losses in 2008 … new growth is limited by chronic underperformance in certain sectors.
”
Dr. Roberto Salinas-León
The “economy is
moving forward due to inertia and the same old sectors will continue to drive it .
”
Macario Schettino
name of “theThe game is not
only increasing exports, but capturing a larger slice of the pie. Mexico has been gaining market share in the U.S. the past two years.
”
Dr. Luis de la Calle
The “economy is
being managed in such a way that we don’t have to fear surprises such as devaluation.
Dr. Deborah Riner
”
COMMERCE
ECONOMY &FINANCE
Holiday piracy takes big toll on corporate pocketbooks A teenager carrying a backpack with a set of powerful speakers inside and a portable CD player in his hands boards the Mexico City Metro at rush hour. The doors close and several riders cringe as the “ambulante” hits the play button, offering 110-decibel samplings of the most recent radio hits, enticing a few riders who guiltily exchange ten pesos for a pirated CD while irritating dozens more commuters fed up with the acoustic assaults of Justin Bieber and Lady Gaga. Piracy is ubiquitous in and around the Metro, where ambulantes thrive and where shoppers can buy the most recent Hollywood blockbuster for just over a dollar. The American Chamber of Commerce in Mexico estimates that industries lost 964.68 billion pesos ($74.2 billion) to pirated and counterfeit products in 2009, while the government was deprived of 125.79 billion pesos ($9.3 billion) in sales tax and more than double this amount in would-be income tax from the millions employed in the informal economy. To get an idea of the enormity, Mexico’s second-largest source of revenues – remittances – totaled $21.18 billion in 2009. Tens of millions of Mexicans will spend a considerable part of their year-end bonuses on pirated goods this month. According to the Mexico City Chamber of Commerce, about 30 billion pesos ($2.4 billion) will be spent on gifts and decorations. Roughly 33 million of the 55 million sets of decorative lights sold will be pirated products, producing an estimated loss of 1.65 billion pesos ($132 million) alone. 2011 OUTLOOK
AmCham intellectual property committee spokesman Mike Margain hopes things will get better for the business of creativity. “Piracy is an attack on innovation, competitiveness and jobs,” Margain told Mexico Weekly. “It is a very serious problem.”
NOTIMEX PHOTO/JULIO ARGUMEDO
Last year’s losses three times greater than remittances, but gov’t, private sector fighting back
This year, 33 million decorative light sets sold in Mexico will be pirated.
: Industry losses to piracy Products Millions of pesos Percentage CDs, DVDs 570,600 59.1 Clothing 198,903 20.6 Shoes 78,177 8.1 Accessories 46,182 4.8 Software 40,706 4.2 Toys 19,681 2.0 Cell phones 5,658 0.6 Cosmetics 3,347 0.3 Cigarettes 1,334 0.1 Medicine 74 0.01 Car parts 27 0.003 Total: 964,689 ($71.42 billion)
Average 2009 exchange rate: 13.52 pesos per dollar
AMERICAN CHAMBER OF COMMERCE IN MEXICO
The Chamber, which represents the interests of some 2,000 members, has launched a campaign urging people not to buy pirated goods during the holiday season. The “How much are your ideas worth?” campaign illustrates the economic and even human losses to piracy, telling shoppers, “Don’t gift piracy. Don’t rob the
future of your children.” Margain says he is optimistic. Tougher legislation to curb piracy, improved Customs agencies, increasingly frequent raids against vendors, producers and distributors, and a growing respect for intellectual property among consumers are signs that indicate fewer piracy sales in the future. AmCham plans to conduct its fourth annual study of piracy and consumer attitudes early next year. Its past three surveys were released before the Christmas shopping season, but Margain says the upcoming study will reflect 2010 data and will gauge if awareness campaigns are working. In the 2009 study, nearly nine of 10 people interviewed said they had bought pirated goods frequently or occasionally, with CDs and DVDs (59 percent), clothing (20.6 percent) and accessories (4.8 percent) accounting for the bulk of industry losses to piracy. The AmCham expects piracy sales to increase to 983.18 billion ($78.65 billion) pesos next year, and surpass 1 trillion pesos ($80.24 billion) in 2014.
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 15
ECONOMY &FINANCE
OIL INDUSTRY
C
arlos Fuentes famously said that any government leader who tried to change the legal status of oil “would be hanged in the Zócalo.” It seems he was wrong. On Dec. 7, the Supreme Court handed down a landmark decision, giving the allclear for private company involvement in the exploration and production of oil. In order to understand the historic nature of this decision, we must rewind to March 18, 1938. Following lengthy strikes that pitted Mexican oil unions against U.S. and British companies, President Lázaro Cárdenas announced the expropriation of all oil resources and facilities. Ever since, all reserves found under Mexican soil belonged to the state and private companies were not allowed to profit directly from the exploration or production of oil. The nationalization of oil and the subsequent establishment of Pemex as sole owner and producer has for many years been a source of fierce Mexican pride. What has happened since nationalization? Mexico is the world’s 7th largest oil producer, No. 1 in Latin America, and boasts the world’s 18th largest proven oil reserves. However, Mexico’s oil industry is in deep decline. So much so that, according to industry experts, Mexico will become a net oil importer within the decade. Given that 30 to 40 percent of government revenue comes from oil profits, the industry’s decay is potentially disastrous for the economy.
FIGHTING THE SLIDE
What has gone wrong? Mexico’s largest oil reserves are in shallow waters that make extraction easy and relatively inexpensive. However, years of underinvestment in both maintenance of existing fields and exploration of new reserves has taken its toll. Reserves at the Cantarell field in the Bay of Campeche, the star of Mexican oil production, are fast depleting. According to Pemex statistics, the Cantarell field produced 2,136 million barrels of crude oil in 2004, but by last year this plummeted to just 684 million barrels, a drop of over 68 percent. This drop in production is not just limited to Cantarell. Many of Mexico’s oil fields are now maturing and their output will begin to slide in the coming years. Efforts to
Pemex has seen total oil production fall roughly 1 million barrels per day since 2004.
Court opens Pemex door
explore the Chicontepec region in Veracruz, thought to contain substantial reserves, have thus far been underwhelming. Total oil production has fallen from 3.5 million barrels per day in 2004 to 2.5 million this year. In order to rescue the ailing industry, Pemex has to look beyond the easy options of shallow water drilling. But unlocking the estimated 28 billion barrels of oil beneath the Gulf of Mexico requires state-of-the-art technology and serious funding. Pemex has little of either. CHAMBER CHALLENGE
In an effort to reverse this situation, President Calderón was a key proponent of the
16 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
Pemex Administration Act 2008, known as the Pemex Law. The act was, according to Pemex, designed to “strengthen corporate governance, provide greater flexibility in the company’s organizational structure and to create a new contractual framework.” It is this last feature that laid the framework for the so-called integrated exploration and production contracts that private companies would be offered. However, Baker & Associates note that “there is a loosely defined notion in Mexico that the country’s petroleum rent must exclusively accrue to the state, and any intent to divert a stream of this rent to private
will compete for contracts in relation to three mature oil fields in the south of Mexico, namely Magallanes, Santuario and Carrizo. The aim of these projects will be recovery and regeneration rather than exploration. The second type of project will relate to deep-water exploration but these contracts will not be part of the initial tender process.
NOTIMEX PHOTO
NOTIMEX PHOTO/LUIS LÓPEZ
NO SURPRISES
Mexico still lacks the technical expertise to exploit oil found in deep water in the Gulf of Mexico.
parties is illegal, unconstitutional and even anti-patriotic.” It was in this spirit that the Chamber of Deputies voted to challenge the constitutionality of the contracts in October 2009. According to the Chamber, the government had overstepped its authority and the regulations gave too much control to the private sector. Following a week of deliberation,
the Supreme Court ruled that the contracts are valid, thus opening the door for private company involvement for the first time in 70 years. The new contracts, approved by the Pemex board on Nov. 24, will give private companies the opportunity to participate in two types of projects. Under the first planned tender, bidders
Unlike standard exploration and production contracts, the successful bidders will not own the oil they discover. Instead, the company will receive a fee per barrel in addition to recovery of costs. Given that oil companies usually record exploration finds on their balance sheet, this lack of ownership is a potential turn off. Mexican oil expert David Shields disagrees. “All potential bidders are aware of the terms. There are no surprises.” Potential Asked whether the contracts bidders for mature fields are aware will be attractive to potential bidders of the he said “the small terms. size of the fields David Shields to which the con- Mexican oil expert tracts relate are not attractive to large international companies. However, medium-sized U.S. or Mexican companies will be interested. Given Mexico’s geographic location and reasonably stable operating environment, the bid is, for example, more attractive than a comparable tender in Africa.” However, it is difficult to believe this new effort will be sufficient to kick start Mexico’s fatigued oil industry. David Enríquez, oil and gas partner at law firm Goodrich, Riquelme y Asociados lamented that “the level of private company involvement is not as comprehensive as the industry needs.” This sentiment is echoed by Shields who said “the participation of private companies will be helpful but the three blocks being tendered only represent about 4 percent of total production. It is a very timid approach.” Timid it may be, but the Supreme Court’s decision represents a historic shift in Mexico’s approach to its most prized industry.
“
”
REBECCA CONAN / MEXICO WEEKLY
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 17
“N COVER STORY
obody is above the law,” declared Oaxaca Gov. Gabino Cué, during his inauguration speech on Dec. 1. “I will not allow impunity and there will be no protection for those whose actions have betrayed the trust and the will of the people, tearing apart the social fabric of Oaxaca.” Oaxacans hope that this time their leader will come through on his words. Not only is the state one of the nation’s poorest in terms of education, health and human development, but a thorough regime change is required following an uninterrupted, eight-decade line of PRI rulers. Cué’s predecessor, Ulises Ruiz, was labeled “el cacique malo” — “the evil strongman” — due to his authoritarian style, and widespread allegations of nepotism and corruption. The state’s problems made international headlines in 2006, following the brutal repression of a teachers strike that devolved into a six-month long uprising against the Ruiz administration led by the Oaxaca People’s Assembly, or APPO, a social movement made up of some 300 social organizations. Over 20 activists lost their lives in the ensuing crackdown. It was not a surprise, then, when opposition parties joined forces to back Cué as the only candidate standing against the PRI nominee. It was not a surprise when voter turnout was high, nor was it a surprise when Cué won. What happens next depends on the new governor’s ability to head a cobbled-together, potentially unstable coalition and successfully close a difficult chapter in Oaxaca’s history. PROACTIVE APPROACH
Cué’s credentials are solid: 18 years in public service, candidate in four elections, mayor of Oaxaca, and senator. He has already demonstrated farreaching vision. While waiting to take office, Cué busied himself with the formation of a joint committee involving the Mexico
OUT WI IN WITH
NEW GOVERNOR in Oaxaca determin in similar circumstances serve as a s
BY REBECCA JOHNSON / MEXICO WEEK
Gov. Gabino Cué delivers his inaugural address in Oaxaca City on Dec. 1.
City government and the Oaxaca government-elect. The committee aims to secure the support and cooperation of the Federal District for social programs in Oaxaca, such as university scholarship initiatives, vaccinations against the human papilloma virus for women, the provision of uniforms and materials for school children, and the construction of a medical center specializing in obesity, cardiovascular risk and diabetes in the city of Huajuapan. On Nov. 8, Gov-elect Cué presented the Chamber of Deputies Budget Committee with a request for 52 billion pesos for Oaxaca next year, a request backed by PRI deputies on condition that all spending be closely monitored. “Every peso assigned to Oa– xaca,” Cué affirmed, “will be punctually and correctly checked.”
18 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
A MODEL STATE
Days after taking office, Cué talked to Mexico Weekly about his first steps in building a coalition government. Cué said that 70 technical committees along with representatives of civil society and different political parties, including the PRI, had worked together to form a preliminary, “organic” plan of governance, based on the points of agreement between the diverse groups. He explained that the plan was laid down first, and members of his Cabinet were chosen afterward, based on their ability to incorporate themselves into the plan. The new Cabinet was also instructed that they’d be expected to carry out a “package of reforms” that address agreed upon social priorities. Both men and women have been integrated into
NOTIMEX PHOTO/HUGO ALBERTO VELASCO
WITH OLD, TH THE NEW
etermined to change the way government functions but failures of President Fox ve as a sober reminder that regime change is easier said than done
Cué signs an accord with the Rigoberta Menchú Foundation shortly after being sworn in.
XICO WEEKLY
NOTIMEX PHOTO/SERGIO UZETA
TROUBLESOME PARALLELS
what Cué describes as a “totally pluralistic government.” “It is my government’s task to inspire the public to make Oaxaca a model for human development and sustainability,” he said in his inaugural speech. “ … to respect freedom and human rights … to be democratic and to tolerate dissenting voices and to nurture the rule of law.” It all sounds very impressive, but an attempt at regime change was seen at the national level in 2000, when the PAN’s Vicente Fox ended 71 years of PRI rule. This transition was widely considered a failure. Fox was an excellent candidate, but did not deliver on his extravagant campaign pledges for reinvigorated social security, health systems and micro-loans to help poorer citizens buy homes and start businesses.
Aside from resistance coming from deeply entrenched PRI structures, Fox had to contend with the sudden dispersal of power, as governmental bodies tasted relative freedom after decades of control from a strongman president. Luis Rubio, president of the Center of Research for Development, suggests that Fox missed the opportunity to negotiate agreements with the PRI that could have led to a new institutional structure. Instead, he argues, no overarching vision was in place to deal with conflicting factions within the new Cabinet, nor to assuage PRI fears that the new government would not come down with a heavy hand on its political rivals, as so many previous governments had done. Political gridlock ensued and Fox’s social initiatives were forgotten.
It is a lesson from history whose consequences Cué agrees cannot be ignored. Political analyst Carlos Ramírez warns in his El Financiero column that the risks of Oaxaca’s political change being interrupted are not only found in representatives of the old regime, but also in the plethora of civil society groups, trade unions and political organizations that, de facto, have become a fourth power in the state: “With diverse origins and interests, generally corporate social bases, and leaderships that have not always won the respect of those they represent and even less of society, these organizations grew and strengthened generally due to the laziness, inefficacy and complicity of government workers or the absence of PRI institutional channels for dialogue. ..” Before Cué was sworn in, Rubio described three possible paths. The first is to keep the peace by maintaining the status quo, in the traditional style of the PRI; second, move forward trying to keep the ball in the air as long as possible, as Fox did; third, restructure the entire institutional setup. Rubio asserts that the third way has never before been attempted in Mexico, despite it being a political imperative for the country. Rubio argues that making a big show of punishing the corrupt, as Fox claimed he would do, is not enough when the justice system itself lacks credibility. A true regime change, he says, would depend on those in power accepting the new rules under the governor’s sword of Damocles, and drawing a line under the past. Oaxacans may take heart that Cué has already diverged from Fox in this aspect, telling Mexico Weekly he has no intention of pointedly seeking out criminals from the old regime: “We have not come with a spirit of vengeance,” he says. “What Oaxaca seeks is reconciliation.”
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 19
COVER STORY
Sinaloa, Puebla to experience non-PRI govs for first time
Mario López Valdez celebrates his triumph in the July gubernatorial election in Sinaloa.
the third poorest.” Moreno Valle will take office on Feb. 1, 2011.
Hidalgo is another state where the PRI has never lost, although the July election won by Francisco Olvera was controverFOUR MORE sial. Olvera was chief of staff of outgoing Tamaulipas, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala and Quin- Gov. Miguel Osorio Chong. Former Fox adtana Roo will also see new governors take ministration official Xóchitl Gálvez – the office in the first few weeks of 2011. All PAN-PRD candidate – challenged the refour of these states will be headed by PRI sults, alleging that Gov. Osorio had illegally administrations. manipulated the results. Gov.-elect Egidio Torres of In Tlaxcala, the PRI reTamaulipas offers the most gained the governor’s chair afcompelling story. His youngter being out of power for 12 er brother, Rodolfo Torres, years. Mariano González Zarur was the PRI candidate with a won 46 percent of the vote, healthy lead in the polls. Rowhile the PAN candidate won dolfo was killed a week before 39 percent. González Zarur – a the election in an attack that former senator (2000-06) and had all the earmarks of a hit by Puebla Gov.-elect congressman (2006-09) – lost organized crime. Egidio – not Rafael Moreno Valle the 2004 election to outgoing a politician by trade but a civGov. Héctor Ortiz. il engineer – replaced Rodolfo on the balQuintana Roo will be led by 31-year-old lot and won with ease. The northern state Roberto Borge of the PRI. Borge swept into – where the PRI has never lost a guber- power after his top rival, Gregorio Sánchez natorial election – has become a virtual of the PRD, was jailed on drug trafficking no-man’s land as drug cartels dominate charges six weeks before the election. Sánlarge swaths of territory, especially along chez was replaced on the ballot by Gerardo the border and including Nuevo Laredo, Mora, but Borge won 52 percent of the vote. MEXICO WEEKLY Reynosa and Matamoros.
20 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
NOTIMEX PHOTO/CARLOS PACHECO
Electoral coalitions also secured victory in gubernatorial elections in the historic PRI strongholds of Sinaloa and Puebla on July 4, 2010. Political analyst Jorge Chabat said the two new governors in these states are PRI-trained “so we can’t expect a significant change in policy or strategy.” However, Chabat said, “both had such pathetic predecessors that it will be quite easy for them to appear more democratic and open.” Sinaloa Gov.-elect Mario López Valdez, popularly known as “Malova,” was a former member of the PRI, senator for Sinaloa and municipal president of Ahome, Sinaloa. The 53-year-old native of Cubiri de la Loma, Sinaloa, resigned from the PRI in March 2010. He claimed the PRI’s internal selection process was tilted toward Jesús Vizcarra, the man he defeated in the election. He joined the PAN and then helped cobble together a coalition with the PRD and Convergencia. López Valdez has a business degree from Los Mochis Institute of Technology and will take office on Jan. 1, 2011. He has not yet named his Cabinet. Puebla Gov.-elect Rafael Moreno Valle Rosas represents the coalition “Compromiso por Puebla,” comprised of the PAN, the PRD, Convergencia and Nueva Alianza. His grandfather served as governor of Puebla from 1969-72. A former PAN senator for Puebla, the 42-year-old Moreno Valle replaces the controversial Mario Marín Torres of the PRI, who was subject to calls for resignation in February 2006 when a series of incriminating telephone conversations were picked up by the media. Previously, Moreno Valle was the Speaker of the Puebla Congress as a member of the PRI. Moreno Valle came from far back in the polls to defeat PRI candidate Javier López Zavala. He has promised a regime change for Puebla, stating that “the people are no longer willing to settle for this state being
NOTIMEX PHOTOS
Four additional states will swear in new administrations from the former ruling party during the first few months of the new year
www.mexicotoday.com.mx/information/lifeleisure
2011, Big Time Musical Events: Expect huge names and huger crowds — at the hugest venues : 22
MUSIC
TRAVEL
Faith Songs
Mexico First
Lucero and Marco Antonio Solís and others sang at the Basílica de Guadalupe just hours before 6 million arrived for the Dec. 12 Virgin pilgrimage.
The Tourism Secretariat is soliciting campaign themes from the public to promote domestic travel in 2011. See: www.visitmexico. com
“The
MUSIC
Wall is an allegory for the way some nations behave. Roger Waters
”
ON SCREEN
Melón-choly
Candidate
Luis Ángel Silva Nava, aka Melón, gave a farewell concert on Dec. 8 after more than six decades as Mexico’s foremost interpreter of the son style.
“Biutiful,” the highly lauded film by Alejandro González Iñárritu, will compete for the Best Foreign Film at the Critics’ Choice Awards in January.
BOOKS
More Monsiváis “Historia Mínima,” a history of 20th century Mexican culture by the late essayist Carlos Monsiváis, has been published posthumously.
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 21
AP PHOTO/PETER KRAMER
life& leisure
life& leisure
MUSICAL EVENTS
Size Matters PHOTO COURTESY OF FLICKR
If bigger is better, 2011 looks like a major year for headliners in Mexico
N
ext year’s music menu is still taking shape, but we know enough to expect a steady diet of the kind of megastardriven super-events at outsized venues that’s standard now in Mexico City, and to a lesser extent in Monterrey and Guadalajara. The biggest of the big in 2011 will be, of course, U2, a straight-ahead rock band with a multi-generational appeal and a three-decade-long string of radio-play hits. A trifecta like that fills stadium seats, and the Irish quartet has been doing just that throughout their multi-legged worldwide “U2 360” tour, which will be well into its third calendar year when they hit Mexico City in mid-May (cutting it close to the onset of the rainy season). That “360” tag, incidentally, has nothing to do with any new release; their latest is still 2009’s “No Line on the Horizon.” Rather, it describes the theater-in-theround concept made possible by a huge circular stage construction, supposedly the
PHOTO COURTESY OF FLICKR
U2 will be performing on the world’s biggest stage when they play three Mexico City dates at Estadio Azteca in May.
Joanne Angelina Germanotta will be all of 25 at the time, and with a younger fan base than U2; hence the dates at the Foro Sol, which seats “only” 55,000 for concerts. But as Lady Gaga, her song-and-dance-witha-schtick-and-lotsa-legs act is as hot as it gets among the MTV set. Her Guadalajara/ D.F. shows should come after the release of a new album, “Born This Way,” reportedly with songs in several languages, including Spanish.
Iron Maiden, coming to Zapopan and Mexico City in March, has an intense Mexican fan base.
biggest ever for a concert (and presumably with plenty of ego room). The set-up means more seats can be used, so Bono and company could be playing to something close to 100,000 souls at Estadio Azteca — not for one night but three, on May 11, 14 and 15. Also huge in May, this time on the pop end of the spectrum, will be three nights of Lady Gaga, one at Estadio 3 de Marzo in Guadalajara on May 3 and the other two at Mexico City’s Foro Sol on May 5 and 6.
22 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
ROCK ON TAP
British heavy metal pioneers Iron Maiden are of U2’s vintage (mid-1970s), and its members of similar age (50s). Among their fans they can number Ms. Gaga herself. They have an intensely loyal following in Mexico, and though the press is fond of using the adjective “aging” with any hard rocker over 40, the band is arguably more popular now than ever. Their current album, “The Final Frontier,” is their most successful to date, reaching No. 1 in 40 countries, Mexico being one
PHOTO COURTESY OF FLICKR NOTIMEX PHOTOS
Deep Purple
PHOTO COURTESY OF FLICKR
U2’s Bono
Joe Satriani
AP PHOTO/GERO BRELOER
of them. The tour supporting that album (actually, these days the album supports the tour) will hit more than 90 cities worldwide, including Monterrey on March 17 (at the Teatro Banamex) and Mexico City on March 18 (Foro Sol). Deep Purple, born in the 1960s, is another seminal English band that’s still going strong, with its signature musical formula blending metal and other influences. They were in Mexico in 1993 for two dates, which served as live auditions for lead guitarist Steve Morse, under consideration to replace founding member Ritchie Blackmore, who had quit suddenly in mid-tour. Whether this “Secret Mexican Tour” was a lucky break for us (“We unexpectedly get to see Deep Purple”) or a mild insult (“What, we’re just guinea pigs?”) can be debated. But Morse worked out well, and he and the rest of that year’s line-up (save a keyboardist change) will play the Auditorio Telmex in Zapopan, in the greater Guadalajara area, on Feb. 22, and Mexico City’s 10,000-seat Auditorio Nacional on Feb. 23. Rock guitar virtuoso Joe Satriani, who played very briefly for Deep Purple in the early 1990s and for Mick Jagger in the late 1980s, comes to Mexico City for two performances on Jan. 22 and 23, where he’ll presumably perform selections form his new album “Black Swans and Wormhole Wizards.” Though he’s American with his own style, Satriani comes out of the English electric-blues tradition, and he’ll be playing on the same Teatro Metropolitan stage as one of his major influences, Jeff Beck, six weeks earlier. With a seating capacity under 4,000, the Teatro Metropolitan may not qualify as a big-time concert site, but the resurrected theater is a fine and funky sit-down venue for rock, jazz and pop acts. Coming to this conveniently located theater (near Metros Hidalgo and Juárez) in the early part of 2011 will be, among others, Carlos Baute (Feb. 3), Paty Cantú (March 11) and Panteón Rococó (Feb. 5). The Mexican soft rock group Camila, whose leader Mario Domm recently served as a producer for some big-time hot-pants-and-midriff pop divas (Paulina Rubio, Thalía, Alejandra Guzmán), have hit it big enough with two albums, “Todo Cambió” and “Dejarte de Amar,” to fill arenas. On Feb. 12, they’ll play the Palacio de los Deportes, the venerable 20,000+ capacity sports palace dome you see as you’re about
Lady Gaga
to land at the Mexico City international airport. Over the years it has hosted such international draws as Bob Dylan, Coldplay, Paul McCartney and Shakira. ON THE POP SIDE
A Mexican born in Puerto Rico to a Spanish father and Italian mother, the 40-year-old pop singer and ballad crooner Luis Miguel is so staggeringly in-demand internationally that performances in his home country
are considered major events. He’s as generous as he can be with them, however, traditionally filling up large chunks of February with a series of concerts. This year, the former child phenom (who wears suits on stage and flashes impossibly perfect white teeth), is scheduled for eight dates at the Auditorio Nacional in Mexico City, Feb. 1114 and 17-20. Also Puerto Rican-born – but really Puerto Rican – is Chayanne, another internationally adored Latin pop singer and sometimes actor who’s especially popular in Mexico and the United States. Though actually older than Luis Miguel (he’s 42), his stage persona is more youthful and slightly hipper. He’ll perform four times at the Auditorio Nacional, Jan. 21, 22, 25 and 26. Spanish-born (to Julio Iglesias) and equally at home in Europe, Latin America and the United States, 45-year-old Enrique Iglesias is another elite in the Latin pop pantheon. He makes some records in English as some in Spanish; his latest, “Euphoria” is his first bilingual effort. He’ll play the Auditorio Nacional on Feb. 28. Ranchera and mariachi singer Vicente Fernández took over the torch as the steward of traditional Mexican popular music after his three iconic predecessors – Jorge Negrete, Pedro Infante and Javier Solís – died young between 1953 and 1966. Son Alejandro Fernández started out as the heir apparent, but soon expanded his repertoire to include more mainstream pop, and that made him an international superstar. He’ll be at the Auditorio Nacional on March 17, 24, 25 and 26. AND FINALLY ...
The “contemporary instrumentalist” Yanni plays an accessible piano music that has millions of adoring fans worldwide convinced they’re having a transcendent experience. He’s played his share of exotic locales (i.e. the Acropolis), but his Mexican tour will have to settle for auditoriums in Monterrey (Jan. 26), Puebla (Jan. 28), Mexico City (Jan. 30) and Guadalajara (Feb. 2). As far from Yanni as you can get is Joan Manuel Serrat, the trova-like “new song” Spanish singer/songwriter, whose exquisite lyrics are sometimes in Catalan. His Auditorio Nacional concerts on Feb. 4 and 5 will feature lyrics by the Spanish poet Miguel Hernández (1910-1942), as well as his own. KELLY ARTHUR GARRETT / MEXICO WEEKLY
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 23
life& leisure
BOOKS IN REVIEW
Fair Enough
Jean-Marie le Clézio, Nobel Prize for Literature winner in 2008: “In Latin American literature, there is a quality of empathy toward minorities.”
PHOTO COURTESY OF FIL/NATALIA FREGOSO
The annual Guadalajara Book Fair is a major international literary event and the most important of its kind in Latin America. By all accounts, the 24th edition that ended on Dec. 5 was a welcome success – for its record attendance, its star power, and the overall buzz. True, it featured two fewer crowd favorites than planned (illness in Carlos Fuentes’ family, Nobel acceptance preparations for Mario Vargas Llosa). But the event officially dubbed the Feria Internacional del Libro de Guadalajara did attract one Nobelist, JeanMarie Gustave le Clézio, and enough other international and Mexican literary heavyweights to focus a little bit more national attention than usual on the written word. For a lot of us, the fair serves as a sort of living catalog of important Mexican and Latin American authors who might have slipped under our radars. So they’re there to be discovered by the uninitiated, many times with the help of English translations. Most of Fuentes’ and Vargas Llosa’s novels, stories and non-fiction have been translated into English, of course. So has a good deal of Le Clézio’s work (he’s bilingual but writes in French), including “The Mexican Dream.” A surprising number of books from other Mexican fair attendees are available in English as well. A sampling: Detective novelist and biographer Paco Ignacio Taibo II (“Some Clouds”; “The Shadow of the Shadow”; “The Uncomfortable Dead,” that last being a “four-handed” novel co-authored by Subcomandante Marcos), historian Enrique Florescano (“The Myth of Quetzalcóatl”; “Memory, Myth and Time in Mexico”) and journalist Elena Poniatowska (“Massacre in Mexico,” account of the 1968 killing of student demonstrators originally titled “La noche de Tlatelolco”).
PHOTO COURTESY OF FIL GUADALAJARA
Guadalajara’s prestigious book fair brought together literary heavyweights. So why were they talking about spelling?
Paco Ignacio Taibo II (right), with his brother Benito Taibo: “I’m getting the impression that
many (471) of the new titles formally presented by a panel that usually included the author. Though literature in general was the usual topic of the various literary forums (49), there were also music and art events (89), academic gatherings (22), industry business sessions (81), and awards ceremonies (14). Some 612,000 people – the most ever – attended the fair, more than 500 of whom were authors and more than 17,000 publishing professionals, 182 of them literary agents.
Mexicans are starting to read more.”
SPELL CHECK FAIR FACTS
There’s usually a Topic A at these things, one issue that generates the most controversy. This time around it was ... accent marks. More on that in a bit. First, a useful question: What actually goes on at a book fair? In Guadalajara, there were books on display (375,000 titles), arranged by publisher (1,928 represented), from a number of countries (43) and available for purchase (about $33 million worth were sold), with
24 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
For all that, the most spirited discussion for the first half of the book fair was a recommendation by the Association of Academies of the Spanish Language to eliminate some accent marks, change the names of the letters “Y,” “V” and “W,” and eliminate the “CH” and “LL” from the alphabet, the orthographical equivalent of two expelled Plutos. Some background: For centuries, the Spanish language had something no English-speaking countries would ever stand
At the Feria Internacional del Libro de Guadalajara, books were on sale night and day.
for – a language-governing authority. The global function of Spain’s Real Academia Española has now been shifted to a collection of 22 country-specific bodies. It was this association that issued the new recommendations at the book fair. That they lack the respect the Academy once had is clear from the overwhelming negative reaction to the new rules. The two major criticisms were contradictory. Depending on who you talked to, they were either too dictatorial, or too halting and behind the times. For the record, here are the changes, which the association went out of its way to emphasize are voluntary: The “Y,” usually called “y-griega” to distinguish it from the “I” or “i-latina,” can now be called “ye”. For similar reasons, the “V” can now be distinguished more easily from the identical sounding “B” by being called “uve”. The “W” can switch from “doble-u” to “doble-uve.” The rationale for expelling “CH” and “LL” is that they are two letters, not one. The rationale for leaving them in is that they represent a distinct phonetic entity
that has little to do with the two letters used. Many dictionaries have already taken the former path. Eliminating some accent marks is in the cause of simplification. Most accent marks in Spanish are needed to indicate a stressed syllable that doesn’t fall according to the natural rules (on the penultimate syllable for words ending in a vowel, “n” or “s,” otherwise on the final syllable). They are also used to break up diphthongs (as in “día”) and to distinguish between otherwise identically spelled homophones – such as “sólo” for only and “solo” for alone. It’s mostly in this last category that the authorities want to give us all a break and let both meanings be spelled without an accent mark. This will probably be appreciated by schoolchildren and learners of Spanish worldwide. But the writer Martín del Campo points out the downside. Now, when the poet writes “solo pienso en mi esposa,” we don’t know if he thinks about his wife exclusively, or is thinking about her because he’s all by himself. KELLY ARTHUR GARRETT / MEXICO WEEKLY
Carlos Monsiváis (“Mexican Postcards,” “A New Catechism for Recalcitrant Indians”), the prolific essayist and admired public intellectual who died at the age of 72 last June 19, was still posthumously confounding his peers at the Guadalajara fair. To wit: Writer/editor Braulio Peralta at an homage to Monsiváis: “I don’t understand why people say Carlos Monsiváis is difficult to read. To me he seems simple, and simply brilliant.” Cervantes Award-winning novelist Sergio Pitol (“Flower Games”) at the same event: “[Monsiváis’] language was popular, but stylized, so it demanded an effort by the reader just to get oriented.” Other unexpected comments from the book fair:
PHOTO YOLANDA MARTÍNEZ
asked how they felt about the [revolutionary] movement. I think it’s more interesting to think about what Mexico has built over the last 100 years instead of what it has destroyed.”
NOTIMEX FILE PHOTO
PHOTO COURTESY OF FIL/DIEGO ZAVALA SCHERER
: BACK TALK
Enrique Krauze, Mexico’s most recognized historian (“Mexico: Biography of Power”): “Maybe 80,000, 90,000 people participated at its peak, but there were 15 million other Mexicans who were never
Guillermo Fadanelli (“Rock Hudson’s Other Face,” “See You at Breakfast?”), offering a take on Mexico City as he presented his new novel “Hotel DF”: “You have to live side by side with people you not only don’t know but don’t like either. You have to subdue your passions, your desires, your ideas just so you can get along with others.” Hugo Gutiérrez Vega, the Jalisco poet who puts together one of the few remaining Sunday newspaper literary supplements of any substance, La Jornada Semanal, striking an optimistic note: “I can’t imagine a world without magazines, cultural supplements and culture pages in newspapers that take the pulse of new developments in the arts and humanities.”
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 25
life& leisure
FOOD AND DRINK
PHOTO COURTESY OF FLICKR
instead of the usual dried, salted cod. So did I still have to de-salt the fish to make it palatable? Yes, said Gerard Bellver, of Polanco’s Biko restaurant, by leaving it in water overnight. Chef Bellver also warned against overcooking, which will yield a dry fish, so I kept that in mind as I seared the fillets quickly over high heat with a little oil, and then fried them a little more after smearing them with beaten eggs. The sauce for the fish is traditionally “a la vizcaína.” My version involved putting a kilo of tomatoes, two large onions and a clove of garlic into the blender. After it thickened in the fridge for a bit, we added raisins, chopped almonds, olives, sliced bell peppers and a little chile largo. Into the saucepan went fillets and sauce, to marry the flavors as they heated up and the fish flaked into pieces. On to the romeritos. In another variation from the traditional, I chose fresh, not dried, shrimp, which I ground up with some bread crumbs. I had a friend beat egg whites stiff, which we mixed into the ground shrimp, along with baking powder and, at the advice of a chef friend named Carmen Muñoz, the separated egg yolks. Bacalao, the traditional Christmas Eve specialty, has lots of variations. Now it has one more. The resulting paste gets spooned into a hot pan to make what are essentially shrimp pancakes. I found that hard to do without burning them, so I left the task to more competent hands while I started in on the sauce to pour over them. My version involved softening noA Mexico Weekly reporter supermarket in favor of the Mercado Me- pal cactus in boiling water and then dicdecided to take a shot at dellín, a traditional Mexican food market in ing it, and doing the same to some fresh, preparing bacalao, the Christmas the Colonia Roma. There it was a simple task de-veined chiles. Next I toasted sesame Eve favorite. Here’s his version of to find and buy the salad ingredients (beets, seeds and ground them together with cinlettuce,sugarcane,oranges,bananas,lemons, namon, almonds, a little bread and tortithe codfish feast. limes, jícama and peanuts), as llas, and some water for conHaving observed how different the feasts well as the cod (bacalao), the We then put all the The Noche sistency. surrounding Christmas can be in Mexico romeritos and the attendant sauce ingredients into a pan, compared to other parts of the world, I re- ingredients for all three dishes. Buena salad along with onion, salt and the cently decided to become more familiar Delegating the fruit slic- is a panoply romeritos (which had been with the Christmas Eve (Noche Buena) ing to a friend, I peeled the soaked to clear out residual festivities by preparing a feast of its cus- hard outer layer off the sugar representing dirt, and then cooked in salttomary dishes — ensalada de Noche Bue- cane and cut the sweet part in- Mexico in all ed boiling water until soft). na, bacalao and romeritos. I enlisted the to strips. I also had to cook the its color and We let it simmer for about a help of a few friends, as well as the advice beets in sugar water until they half hour. of several Mexican chefs. were soft enough to cut into flavors. The resulting salad, baThe salad was the least complicat- strips, making sure to keep the Marta Ortiz Chapa calao and romeritos/shrimp ed, but still interesting, blending Old and resulting juice to sprinkle over Chef, Dulce Patria dish may have stretched traNew World ingredients in what chef Mar- the salad. The final prep con- restarurant dition a tad, but nobody was ta Ortiz Chapa, of Polanco’s new Dulce Pa- sisted of throwing everything complaining. Then again, tria restaurant, described to me as “an un- into a bowl and letting it sit in the fridge for Mexico is full of places that will prepare usual panoply that represents Mexico in all about 40 minutes before swerving. any or all of these traditional dishes for you. its color and flavors.” For my bacalao, I deviated from Mex- That may be the best variation yet. My first choice was to eschew the ican tradition by buying eight fresh fillets JAI KHARBANDA / MEXICO WEEKLY
Oh My Cod “
”
26 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
MUSIC AND ART EVENTS
life& leisure
The Wall ... and a Mural
after the final curtain of “Fidelio” for several weeks for technical adjustments.
When Pink Floyd broke up in the early 1980s, David Gilmour got the band name but Roger Waters got “The Wall” (which he had written). Though Gilmour can claim a superior musical output in the ensuing quarter century (has it really been that long?), it’s “The Wall” that has achieved classic status, with devotees ranging from Waters’ generation (he’s 67) to teenagers understandably attracted to the work’s theme: school’s a bummer. The following is so strong that Waters and the band he’s put together had no trouble scheduling three dates (two of them added) at Mexico City’s Palacio de los Deportes on Dec. 18, 19 and 21. The multimedia shows will feature a recruited singer, 23 projectors, 82 moving lights and hundreds of bricks.
A LIBERATED WORK
NOTIMEX PHOTO/CARLOS BAEZ CASTRO
The coming week’s highlights in music and art
Works by Saturnino Herrán are on view at Bellas
VIVA FIDELIO
Artes through Jan. 8, 2011.
One of the pleasures of Mexico City life is the option to decide, often at the last minute, to take in a top-rate performance of a classic work for a reasonable price. One such work – technically on the cusp between classic and Romantic – is “Fidelio,” Beethoven’s only opera, whose final performance at Bellas Artes takes place on Sunday, Dec. 19, at 5 p.m., with seats starting
at a low of 90 pesos to a high of 450 pesos. The production is directed by Niksa Bareza, with the Bellas Artes Theater Orchestra under the baton of guest conductor Xavier Ribes. This closing performance comes just in time; the main Bellas Artes hall, recently reopened after a major (and controversial) renovation, will close again
It’s not exactly a lost mural, but the late Mexican artist/cartoonist Abel Quezada’s “Petróleos Mexicanos,” commemorating the nationalization of the petroleum industry in 1938, has been ensconced for two decades in a meeting room inside the Pemex headquarters. But now the huge work, consisting of two 12-meter-square panels, has been packed up, transported, and installed in the Museum of the City of México (Pino Suárez 30 in the Historic Center) for public viewing as part of the “Códice AQ” exhibit. The entrance fee is only 20 pesos, and the mural is a good pretext for paying a visit to this underrated museum. AN EARLY MODERN TREAT
Works by Saturnino Herrán, the influential Mexican artist who flourished at the turn of the century (the 20th century, that is), are entering their final weeks on display in the museum section of Bellas Artes. More than 100 pieces, including paintings, drawings and photographs, will be on display through Jan. 8, 2011. Admission is 39 pesos, free on Sundays. For more event choices, go to www.mexicotoday. com.mx
NOTIMEX PHOTO/FRANCISCO GARCIA
Holiday Happenings
“The Nutcracker” offerings abounded this year. There’s one left at the Auditorio Nacional.
So what do you do in Mexico City around Christmas time other than eat, drink and buy presents? You go see “The Nutcracker.” Or you plan to see it and never get around to it. The annual presentation of the Tchaikovsky favorite by the National Dance Company, under its director Sylvie Reynaud, continues daily at the Auditorio Nacional through Dec. 23. The music is by the Bellas Artes Theater Orchestra, with guest conductor Tadeusz Wojciechowski. Performances are at 4:30 p.m. and 7:30 p.m., with a special noon show on Sunday. In the same spirit, the Ballet Folklórico de Amalia Hernández is offering special
Christmas-themed performances of traditional Mexican dances at the Castillo de Chapultepec, with shows every evening at 8 p.m. through Dec. 30 except Sunday the 19th and Christmas Eve. Traditional Mexican pastorelas, enacting the journey of the Three Wise Men – sometimes humorously, sometimes devotedly – are cultural expressions of Christmas in Mexico. The Pastorela Mexicana del Carmen, in the Claustro del Instituto Cultural Helénico at Avenida Revolución 1500 daily through Dec. 27, is one of the favorites. For 250 pesos, you get the play, plus dinner, plus singing, dancing and piñatas.
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 27
r&r
: what : when : where
ART EVENTS
José Clemente Orozco
Yo Estoy Aquí
“Pintura y Verdad” (“Painting and Truth”), billed as the largest exhibition of the Mexican master’s works ever, includes 20 drawings never previously displayed. Continues through Jan. 16 at the Antiguo Colegio de San Ildefonso.
Young people from Mexico City were asked to photograph their lives from their own perspective. This exhibition, whose title means “I Am Here,” is the result. At the Biblioteca Vasconcelos in the Buenavista neighborhood in Mexico City.
ART EVENTS
MUSIC EVENTS
Revolution Cartoons
Fernando Delgadillo
A fascinating and eye-opening look at the Mexican Revolution through political cartoons from the United States. At the Museo de Arte Carrillo Gil through March 20.
The ubiquitous interpreter of trova has booked a special date at the Lunario, in the Auditorio Nacional complex, on Dec. 18. A good venue for a longtime (25 years) Mexican favorite.
Harina y Epazote The former convent converted into the Ex Teresa la Antigua art space just off the Zócalo has been temporarily re-reconverted into a processing plant of the quintessentially Mexican cooking herb epazote in this installation piece by Roberto de la Torre.
Cai Guo Qiang The Chinese artist is featured in the exhibit “Resplandor y Soledad” at the MUAC art museum on the campus of the National Autonomous University of Mexico. The main crowd pleaser: An installation made of mezcal and stone.
Engramas: Urbanas y Rurales Landscape painting, photography and sculpture by Antonio Luquín, Raymundo Sesma, Eric Pérez, Armando Romero and Alejandro Pintado. Continues at Pablo Goedel Fine Arts gallery in Polanco through Jan. 20.
Latidos de México Mexico’s diversity — both ethnic and biological — is the subject of the latest public photo exhibit to grace the fence along Paseo de la Reforma outside the zoo. The work is by the Argentine photographer Ariel Carlomagno.
AT THE MUSEUMS
Payín
The Maguey
Body Worlds
Tin Tan
The singer-actress Amparo Cejudo, better known as Payín, brings a blend of blues and bolero, among other influences, to the Rincón Polaco (Providencia 806, Colonia Del Valle, 5687 3066). Cover: 150 pesos.
Paintings, photography, video and sculpture of the succulent that gives us mezcal, tequila and pulque is the subject of “El maguey, símbolo de identidad nacional,” at the Museo Casa Estudio Diego Rivera y Frida Kahlo through Jan. 9.
Real bodies, without the skin, are the attraction at this nominally educational exhibit at the Universum science museum on the UNAM campus. Two for one admission price from Dec. 26 to 30.
Everything you wanted to see of the personal possessions of the iconic Mexican comic actor and singer, including immigration documents. His real name was Germán Valdés. At the Biblioteca Vasconcelos through Jan. 11.
28 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
www.mexicotoday.com.mx/information/security
NOTIMEX PHOTO/EDUARDO JARAMILLO
In hot pursuit Critics of the drug war accuse the government of selective prosecution in the battle against cartels, but authorities insist they are working hard to locate ‘El Chapo’ Guzmán : 30 ARMS TRAFFICKING
Top US newspaper calls for action vs arms sales
Authorities have traced back to U.S. dealers, more than 60,000 guns confiscated in the drug war since 2006, The New York Times reported in a Dec. 15 editorial chiding the Obama administration for inaction. Eight of the top 12 dealers implicated in this report are located along the border. One dealer sold 14 AK-47s to one trafficker in a single day, the NYT said.
DEATHS
FRAUD
VIOLENCE STAYS ON DISTURBING PACE
Nearly 12,500 violent deaths through the first 11 months of the year have been attributed to organized crime, according to the Attorney General’s Office. That hikes the body count since December 2006 to 30,196.
‘JUANITO’ GIVEN AG SUBSIDIES
Juan Reza Sánchez, a top boss in the La Familia drug cartel, was receiving funds from Procampo, the federal agriculture subsidy program, until a federal probe resulted in an order to cut him off, El Universal reported.
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 29
SECURITY
WAR ON DRUGS
Chasing an elusive capo Despite rumors of collusion, officials insist there is progress in battle with Sinaloa cartel
NOTIMEX PHOTOS
NOTIMEX PHOTO/MOISES ORTEGA
H
as the Sinaloa cartel benefitted from favoritism from the Calderón administration? Or worse, was a pact made between Los Pinos and the Sinaloa cartel’s leader, Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán Loera, Mexico’s most-wanted man? Since launching his drug war in December 2006, President Felipe Calderón has been dogged by these accusations. The press and rival politicians – even some members of his own party – have thrown out the criticisms, hoping they might stick. A new book called “Los Señores del Narco,” by Mexican journalist Anabel Hernández, has once again brought the allegations to the fore. But while it’s true that El Chapo remains free while other drug lords have been caught, and it’s true that the Sinaloa cartel has become the most powerful drug trafficking organization in Mexico under Calderón’s watch, there is still no evidence of collusion or favoritism. It’s easy to understand where those alleging favoritism are coming from: During Calderón’s tenure, the Arellano Félix brothers in Tijuana have all fallen; the dominance of the Carrillo Fuentes family in Ciudad Juárez has come to an end; Osiel Cárdenas Guillén of the Gulf cartel has been extradited and sentenced in the United States. Headline-making busts have occurred against La Familia and Los Zetas. By comparison, the Sinaloa cartel appears to have been left relatively unscathed. Of course, that depends on whose numbers one chooses to believe. According to Mexico City-based organized crime expert Edgardo Buscaglia, less than 1,000 members of the Sinaloa cartel have been arrested in the current phase of the war on drugs. According to the Calderón government, 24 percent of the 121,000 people arrested
Federal police stage a controlled burn
‘El Chapo’ Guzmán is seen after his capture
of confiscated drugs in Michoacán.
in 1993. He escaped from prison in 2001.
since 2006 were affiliated with the Sinaloa cartel – that’s roughly 29,000. Most independent newspaper tallies put the number of Sinaloa cartel operatives at closer to 16,000.
after drug traffickers from Sinaloa. Alfredo Beltrán Leyva, aka “El Mochomo,” was arrested on Jan. 21, 2008. Jesús Vicente Zambada-Niebla, the son of capo Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, who the U.S. Justice Department contends was nearly as powerful as El Chapo in the cartel, was arrested in March 2009, and extradited to the United States where he is currently on trial. A top henchman of El Chapo’s, Roberto
NUMBERS TELL A STORY
The numbers may not be telling the whole truth, and a closer examination of arrests and killings of top Sinaloa cartel members does prove that the authorities are going
30 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
AP PHOTO/RAYMUNDO RUIZ
Soldiers patrol a road near Asención, outside
AP PHOTO/U.S. IMMIGRATION AND CUSTOMS ENFORCEMENT
the border city of Ciudad Juárez.
The military has carried out several major drug busts in the past three years.
Beltrán Burgos, aka “El Doctor,” was arrested in May 2009. Another Beltrán Leyva brother, Marcos Arturo, aka “El Barbas,” was killed by Marines on Dec. 16, 2009; his brother, Carlos, was arrested just two weeks later. One of El Chapo’s most loyal cronies, Ignacio Nacho Coronel Villarreal, was killed by soldiers on July 29. Hit man and former El Chapo ally Edgar Valdez Villarreal, aka La Barbie, was arrested a month later. All of these men had worked in El Chapo’s inner circle. All had valuable information on his organization; according to press reports, some of them have been talking to the authorities since their arrest. Still, critics of the drug war continue to lambast Calderón. “The Calderón government has been fighting organized crime in many parts of the republic, but has not touched Sinaloa,” says Manuel Clouthier, a well-regarded member of Calderón’s party in Sinaloa. “I know this. I’m Sinaloan. My family lives in Sinaloa. It is like we’re trimming the
branches of a tree, when we should be tearing it out by the roots. … I believe that much of the problem of not combating a certain cartel in a certain state has much to do with corruption and lack of will.” AUTHORITIES EXUDE CONFIDENCE
Officials see it differently, and have refuted Clouthier’s claims. “That’s his perception,” said Gen. Noé Sandoval Alcázar, the military man in charge of anti-drug ops in Sinaloa, before going back to reading an impressive list of drug eradication and seizures in Sinaloa so far this year: 7,297 marijuana fields destroyed in the hills of Sinaloa; 2,377 poppy fields destroyed, hundreds of arrests. In a recent interview, DEA Chief of Intelligence Anthony Placido told me that the Sinaloa cartel was simply benefitting from being lowest on the list of priorities. Since 2006, La Familia and Los Zetas have proven to be the most violent of the criminal networks, and had to be dealt with first. “Look, if La Familia throws down, you have
to go after them first,” he explains. Another official, former Attorney General’s Office adviser Ariel Moutsatsos, refutes talk of protecting El Chapo far more fervently: “Rumor is that the government hasn’t captured him because the government has a pact with him,” he told me. “[The United States] has the most highly advanced military in the world, but can’t catch Bin Laden. Does the U.S. have a pact?” The question now is whether the Calderón administration, in its final stretch, will go after El Chapo with the same might it has used against the other organizations and their leaders. Officials on both sides of the border say that the Sinaloa cartel has simply grown in strength as the authorities have taken down its rivals. As a result, catching El Chapo, while being a strong political move, would not necessarily bring down the Sinaloa cartel. And will they get him? “I believe so,” Gen. Sandoval unconvincingly told one reporter recently. “El Chapo, and all the leaders of the cartels, are in [our] sights,” Calderón said in September, cautious not to single out the drug lord who has effectively become his nemesis. “He’ll be in hand-cuffs or on a slab in 90 days; it’s only a matter of time,” insists former DEA Chief of Operations Michael Braun, who works with his Mexican law enforcement counterparts in an advisory capacity. Former Attorney General Eduardo Medina Mora is equally convinced: “I am certain that he will be brought to justice,” he told me. MALCOLM BEITH / MEXICO WEEKLY
Malcolm Beith, a journalist who has been based
in Mexico City and New York City, is the author of “The Last Narco: Inside the Hunt for El Chapo, the World’s Most Wanted Drug Lord.”
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 31
CIVIC DEFENSE
NOTIMEX PHOTOS
SECURITY
Estemos Unidos Mexicanos hung this banner above the Circuito Interior in the capital. It reads ‘We are the majority. That makes us stronger.’
“If crime is organized, why aren’t we?” This is the question posed on banners hung over bridges and road signs around Mexico City and Cuernavaca in recent weeks, mimicking in style and inverting in tone the public statements of drug cartels. Another banner reads, “We all agree on something. We want a Mexico without violence.” The banners are signed “Estemos Unidos Mexicanos” (“Let’s be United, Mexicans”). The messages are the product of an anonymous group – a peaceful civil movement – who state in the blogosphere that they have grown sick and tired of being “hijacked by criminals and corrupt authorities.” Estemos Unidos Mexicanos claim to have the resources and capacity to raise the morale of Mexican citizens and foster a spirit of solidarity. Banners have been taken as far afield as New York and Paris. A noble vision indeed. Yet the group’s activities threatened to divide Mexicans
COURTESY OF ESTEMOS UNIDOS MEXICANOS
‘Anonymous’ group emerges, seeks to encourage public to stand up to criminal gangs
COURTESY OF ESTEMOS UNIDOS MEXICANOS
Flying banner of unity
Representatives of the group have hung banners in prominent places, not only in Mexico. At left, is a bridge over the Mexico City-Cuernavaca Highway; at right, a bridge in Paris.
from the outset. Disconcerted by the anonymity of the banners, Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard initially had them taken down swiftly. Estemos Unidos Mexicanos blogged in response that it was “shameful that the authorities do not respect our legitimate expressions calling for peace and organization.” The group wanted to know why banners for political parties were not taken down, yet theirs were removed. “Why,” they blogged, “does citizen participation have to
32 MEXICOWEEKLY : Friday December 17, 2010
be how you tell us it must be and under the criteria of electoral benefits?” Happily, the group have since met with government officials and reassured them that their fight is not with the authorities. They “recognize that there are authorities who do their work well,” but they are more concerned with “apathy, and the way citizens are not communicating.” The group’s representatives insisted they would continue their campaign and would not ask permission to erect more banners. They also stated that the reason
At first, officials took down the banners as soon as they were hung up.
for their anonymity is to avoid politicizing the movement, so nobody can use it as an electoral platform or for personal promotion. Mexico City Police Chief Manuel Mondragón confirmed after the meeting on Nov. 30 that the city would remove no more banners and the organization could rely on the full support of the authorities, “We are on the same page and we applaud them; they are first-class people,” he said. Members of Estemos Unidos Mexicanos appear articulate and diplomatic, and they obviously know how to harness the powers of social networking. A quick read of their website makes it clear the group’s struggle is first and foremost an intellectual one. It is about generating an attitude of commitment and social organization, by raising awareness and establishing local citizen protection committees. In ethos, the movement echoes the report published in April by the Tec de Monterrey following in-depth analysis on the national security situation. The Tec de Monterrey report calls on multilevel governance structures, the private sector and civil society to address specific concerns and proposals in a coordinated manner. Injecting spirit back into a downtrodden and fearful people is no mean feat, especially in a world where so many conflicting voices clamor to be heard. But Estemos Unidos Mexicanos’ objective must be supported to triumph – civil society has a responsibility to pitch in, and the government has a responsibility to facilitate this. Having cleared the first hurdle and demonstrated it is willing to stand up to authority, it seems the group’s target audience may have taken heart. REBECCA JOHNSON / MEXICO WEEKLY
SECURITY
Feeling the heat, cartel retrenches Federal authorities are working hard to close in on La Familia, the notorious drug cartel based in Michoacán. A major military operation that lasted two days reportedly killed a top cartel leader and founder, Nazario Moreno “El Chayo,” and the federal Attorney General’s Office announced a 5 million-peso reward for information leading to the capture of Juan Reza Sánchez, a cartel boss. On Dec. 15, another La Familia capo, Servando Gómez “La Tuta,” distributed a recording to members of the cartel encouraging them to keep fighting. “We must keep working toward victory,” the recording said. “Continue to move around and stay hidden. They are coming with their weapons so keep yours always at your side. Keep everyone on your team alert and store food in safe houses. Don’t despair. We will prevail. We will achieve the goals [‘El Chayo’] laid out for us.” “La Tuta” also emphasized that La Familia will continue to fight off efforts by Los Zetas, another drug trafficking organization, from moving into Michoacán. The former school teacher also criticized the Calderón administration for not accepting a truce that he had offered earlier this year. North of the border, U.S. authorities on Dec. 15 announced the arrest of eight alleged members of La Familia as they attempted to establish a foothold in the Washington D.C. area. The Mexico City daily El Universal conducted an investigation of La Familia’s organization published on Dec. 13 that reveals that the cartel has set up distribution cells across the United States, in Central and South America and in Europe and Asia as well. La Familia’s control is said to extend over 11 states in Mexico. “La Tuta” is thought to be the undisputed No. 1 since “El Chayo” was reportedly killed. An additional concern is the growing evidence that La Familia is deeply involved in electoral politics in Michoacán. Julio César Godoy, a federal deputy, was stripped of congressional immunity
ILLUSTRATION BY FABRICIO VANDEN BROECK
COURTESY OF ESTEMOS UNIDOS MEXICANOS
WAR ON DRUGS
on Dec. 14 to face charges related to drug trafficking and organized crime. In October, an audiotape purportedly featuring a phone conversation between “La Tuta” and Godoy was leaked to the media. Godoy’s whereabouts were unknown as of Dec. 16 and the Attorney General’s Office has asked Interpol for help in locating him. Security consultant Stratfor recently warned that President Calderón will face a crossroads in 2011 as he attempts to reduce the violence in the run-up to the 2012 presidential election. MEXICO WEEKLY
Friday December 17, 2010 : MEXICOWEEKLY 33
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