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Market Watch 8 Market Watch
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A Good Quality Crop Is Needed In 2020
J. Tyron Spearman
Contributing Editor, e Peanut Grower
COVID-19 is bringing more stress and worry to the agriculture picture. If there is a positive in this, it is that demand for peanuts and peanut butter will increase as more people are eating at home. The easy-to-use, nutritious, go-to food makes an ideal meal or snack for families staying at home instead of sending the kids to school and going to work. Food banks are also depleted of resources, and empty store shelves abound. Any surplus will likely be taken up, and more will be needed.
Like everyone, peanut farmers are concerned about the coronavirus pandemic and how will it influence the coming crop year, their businesses in general, the total economy and even their family’s health. Farmers were already entering a stressful planting season with low commodity prices, and now they have to contend with the challenges associated with a global pandemic. While doctors and nurses are on the front lines saving lives of those with COVID-19, farmers are working to ensure that our world still has food to eat.
Lack Of Succession Plans
Another worry? Approximately 69% of producers do not have a backup plan to continue current farming operations if they get sick, much less a succession plan if something catastrophic were to occur. Most farms are still single-proprietor or have few family members or employees as part of the operation.
Yet, the current situation has peanut butter demand up, store shelves depleted, and some manufacturers have had to make the decision to place their customers on allocation. Snack nuts have seen a rise in demand as well.
There is still a disconnect between the farmer market and the shelled peanut
Leading Marketing Indicators (April 2, 2020)
2020 Est. Acreage (+ 1%) ................................................. 1,391,700 acres
2020 Est. Production (acres x 3,949 lbs/A) ....................... 2,748,043 tons
2019 Market Loan ............................................................. 2,340,990 tons
2019 Loan Redemptions ....................................................... 839,244 tons
2019-20 Domestic Usage (8 Mo.) .......................................... Up + 4.3%
2019-20 Exports (7 Mo) .......................................................... Up + 24.1%
NATIONAL POSTED PRICE (per ton) Runners – $424.13; Spanish – $416.70; Valencia and Virginias – $430.94
market. The Southeast’s hot, dry conditions during late season and harvest in 2019 has led to one of the poorest quality crops on record. Aflatoxin and damage are causing failure rates on approximately one-third of lots.
Market Tightening
The market has increased from the 40 cents to the mid-80 cents range per pound for Southeast runners. Offers for tight specifications are extremely difficult to obtain. Blanched jumbos have moved from the high 50 cents at harvest time to mid- to upper-90 cents today. One sheller announced an allocation on current crop contracts.
But that’s farming…deliver to the contract and the next owner delivers to their agreed contract as well. Most of the peanuts were sold earlier to manufacturers at 45 to 46 cents per pound. With the 2019 crop in the warehouse, it’s a sheller problem meeting grade.
What about the 2020 peanut crop? Despite coronavirus, farmers should be optimistic. Peanuts are a food product that the world is demanding. Again, the peanut farmer is on the front lines for ensuring a safe, affordable food supply.
Some Acreage Shifts Expected
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s National Agricultural Statistics Service released their prospective plantings report and projected 1.529 million acres in peanuts. This would be a 7% increase over 2019. Georgia is projected to plant 740,000 acres, a 10% increase over 2019.
Assuming average yields, the result is a total U.S. crop of nearly 3 million farmer-stock tons. Cotton, the largest competitor for peanut acres, is projected to be 13.7 million acres or down less than 1% from last year. However, farmers were surveyed in early March before much was known about how long the economy would be shut down.
More peanuts and less cotton will probably be planted than was indicated by the USDA estimate. With cotton prices as low as 50 cents per pound and the overall commodity markets so low, peanuts at $400 or $425 are still the most attractive option for Southeast growers.
Demand At Home
The market desperately needs the 2020 crop to be a good one from a quality perspective. With stronger than expected exports to China, the carryout from the ’19 crop will be lower than projected.
One broker said, “I do not see much if any weakness in the market between now and the year end. If we have poor weather during the growing season or at harvest again, it will only add firmness to the market and/or reluctance to sell forward without a risk premium.”
USDA estimates domestic food use to increase 1.9%, while exports are predicted to go up 10.6%. After seven months, domestic use is up 4.3% and exports are up 24.1%. Ending stocks are down, and that favors the farmers.
Export Market
China has emerged as a key export market for U.S. peanuts. In 2019, in spite of an ongoing trade war and high tariffs, the United States shipped nearly 97,000 metric tons to China. This was the second-highest total ever and made China the industry’s fourth largest export market, behind Canada, the European Union and Mexico. Shipments have remained strong to start 2020.
U.S. peanut exports continue expanding, up 24.2% over the six-month period and up 24.8% comparing January 2020 to January 2019. China is also buying raw-shelled peanuts, ranking third in shipments behind Canada and Mexico. Raw-shelled exports are up 6.5%, but peanut butter is down 13.8%.
Other Marketing Factors
The Price Loss Coverage payment is good for peanut farmers. The average price for peanuts in February 2020 was $410 per ton. USDA estimates the PLC payment will be $123 per ton, which is applied to 85% of the farm peanut base. Payment is not expected until October and is based on previous year’s prices.
Will a fourth round of payments be issued because of unjustified trade retaliation and low prices? That remains to be seen, but Washington, D.C., is squarely focused on COVID-19 at this time.
Strange Times
During this unforgettable crisis, the Trump administration and Congress must be mindful of the agricultural supply chain and workforce for the ability of U.S. agriculture to meet the needs of consumers. These include but are not limited to impacts on accessibility to seed, fertilizer, crop protection products, agricultural labor, equipment, feed and ingredients for food-producing animals, modes of transportation, the availability of required U.S. government inspec
tion services and even daily movement of milk.
The advice this season is to follow the rules, stay safe, plant early and keep the faith. PG
White Mold Warning
Favorable weather could signal an earlier onset of fungal disease.
By Amanda Huber
It was the second warmest March on record across the globe according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. For the Southeast, the area was classified as much warmer than average. By April, conditions were still warm, and Pam Knox posted on the University of Georgia’s Crop and Soil Sciences “Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast” blog that more precipitation was forecast.
“Wetter conditions than usual are also expected for the next three months in most parts of the Southeast,” Knox says.
Coupled with a mild winter, higher temperatures and more moisture will likely mean an earlier onset of disease.
Already Found In The Field
Bob Kemerait, UGA Extension plant pathologist, says, “Most fungal diseases will be more severe during periods of increased rainfall and of less concern during drier periods. When weather conditions are very favorable for disease, severe epidemics may occur in fields where it was not thought to be a problem.”
White mold, also called stem rot, persists in the soil in its resting stage. Mycelium of Sclerotium rolfsii produces strands of fan-like growth as it spreads. Sclerotia can be seen as small, round structures that are initially white and later become tan to dark brown. White mold can be found in leaf litter or, as Kemerait found in early April, on volunteer peanuts already growing in fields.
Seedling Treatment
“Management of white mold can be improved by an early season banded application of Proline, by timely irrigation after application and by spraying some fungicides at night,” Kemerait says.
“Staying on time is critical no matter what you do. There are plenty of fungicide options, and new ones may bring new opportunities for control. Don’t be afraid to step outside of what you have always done.
“Be sure to irrigate in 24 hours unless you have received a rain. You need to move the material down the plant. Without moving it down into the crown of the plant, you aren’t going to get the same level of control.” PG
White Mold Risk Factors:
A history of the disease in peanut or soybean. Less than two years rotated out of peanut, soybean or other legume. The varieties Georgia-12Y and Bailey have some resistance to fungal disease. Other varieties may have some tolerance. Planting in the first week of May or earlier. Lack of rain preventing fungicide from being washed into the soil
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The spotted cucumber beetle, the southern corn rootworm adult, is easily recognized in the field.
Rootworm On The Rise
This damaging pest is typically found in heavier-textured soils with more moisture.
By Amanda Huber
The southern corn rootworm is an emerging insect pest in Georgia, according to University of Georgia Extension entomologist Mark Abney. The adult stage, the spotted cucumber beetle, is easily identified. The immature stage is not and may go undetected until peanuts are graded as Segregation 3 because of rootworm damage.
“It is still considered a sporadic pest, but in some areas it is becoming a bigger problem. Growers with high-risk fields and those with a history of SCR infestations should consider the pros and cons of applying granular chlorpyrifos,” Abney says. However, as he points out often, producers are likely to soon lose the one product, Lorsban, that will control it.
SCR requires moist soil conditions and is more typically found in fields with heavy soils and center-pivot irrigation. It can also be a problem in low spots with heavy-textured soils in periods of abundant rainfall.
Following is more information about this pest.
This is a picture of the southern corn rootworm. In the larval stage, it is white or cream colored and 1/2 to 3/4 inch long. The legs are visible on the first three segments behind the head. A dark spot on the abdominal segment can be seen on the right side of the insect.
when mature. They have three pairs of inconspicuous legs, and the head and the last segment of the body are dark brown to black. The adult is the spotted cucumber beetle, a greenish-yellow beetle, approximately 1/4 inch long, with 12 irregular black spots on its back. Rootworms damage peanuts by feeding on all underground parts of the plant, especially the pegs and pods.
The decision of whether to spray or not or when to start digging is not always an easy one. The decision is made more difficult when a storm or bad weather is predicted. Last year’s active hurricane season made end-of-season planning and execution tricky. Based on early season conditions and in case harvest conditions are similar to last year, Clemson University peanut specialist Dan Anco has the following advice. Changing Planting Dates
Rains over several weeks in May caused some plans to change. Rain brought on late leaf spot to volunteer peanuts. Early pressure calls for early action. As we entered June, there was still time to get peanuts planted and obtain a reasonable window of conditions for growth and harvesting.
Mid-May is generally the best time to plant peanuts in South Carolina, although peanuts can still be made if planted into early June. Once planting dates reach June 10, we are looking at approximate digging dates near Oct. 20 for a 132-day variety like Bailey or digging dates entering into November for moderate-maturity varieties like Georgia 06G.
One of the concerns around that time of year becomes slow drying conditions prior to combining that can lead to quality issues if they sit out in damp conditions too long. Every year is a little different, but overall the combination of lower yield potential, higher late leaf spot pressure and generally unfavorable harvesting conditions are more prevalent for peanuts planted after about June 10.
Risk Factors For Late Leaf Spot
• Short rotations (less than 2 years out of peanuts) • Highly susceptible variety (Virginia types, Georgia 13M, Spain,
TUFRunner 511) • Late planting (May 26 or later) • Poor control of volunteer peanuts in rotational crops • Poor end of season control of late leaf spot in an adjacent upwind field the previous year • Starting fungicide programs any later than 45 DAP; better early than late • Extending spray intervals beyond 15 days • Repeated, frequent periods of leaf wetness; excessive rains, frequent irrigation • Rain immediately after application – wait 24 hours to irrigate • Consecutive use of fungicides with the same mode of action (except chlorothalonil) Slowing A Growing Leaf Spot Epidemic:
Effective fungicide programs are designed to prevent disease, not cure it after the fact. If something goes wrong and you find late leaf spot lesions in the bottom of the canopy, especially with less than 30 days until harvest, treat immediately, retreating in 10 days, with one of the following: • Topsin 4.5 FL 10 fl oz + 1.5 pt Bravo • Provost Opti 10.7 oz + 1.5 pt Bravo • Priaxor 8 fl oz pearman ad 11/14/08 3:19 PM Page 1
Three-Cornered Alfalfa Hopper
Three-cornered alfalfa hoppers are light green and wedgeshaped. They stand about ¼ inch high and are about ¼ inch long. Both adults and nymphs have piercing mouthparts and feed by penetrating the stem and sucking plant juices. They tend to feed in a circular fashion around a stem, making feeding punctures as they go. The damaged area typically swells and above ground root growth may occur. On peanuts, feeding may occur on limbs, leaf petioles or pegs.
Danitol Diamond EC Comite/Omite Warrior II Lannate Lorsban 4E Chlorpyrifos 15G Orthene Radiant SC Sevin Steward Thimet 20G Blackhawk Dimilin Intrepid Prevathon
P/F NL NL NL G NL G/E NL G G E G NL NL G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL E NL NL G E F G NL G NL NL G G NL NL F/G G F/G G/E NL G/E G NL G G NL P/F NL NL F G NL G NL NL E/G E NL NL G/E NL G/E NL G NL NL NL NL NL NL F NL NL NL NL NL NL P NL F/G P/F NL NL P/F G NL NL NL G F/G E E/G NL NL NL NL G F/G NL NL G NL NL NL NL NL G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL G/E NL G NL NL NL NL F NL NL G/E NL P NL G/E NL NL NL NL E NL NL E G G NL NL E G/E E E/G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL F/G F/G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL E/G
Edited by Dr. Mark Abney, University of Georgia Extension Entomologist E = Excellent Control; G = Good Control; F = Fair Control; P = Poor Control; NL = Not Labeled; LS = Labeled for suppression only 1 Dipel and others; * Insufficient data Burrower Bug
Burrower bugs can be hard to identify in the field and an infestation is often not detected until harvest. Burrower bugs have a black-tobrown body, small red eyes on a small-sized head. The upper wings of burrower bugs are shiny and semi-hardened with the membranous tip overlapping. Its legs are spiny, and needle-like, piercing, sucking mouth parts are visible with a hand lens. Burrower bug is closely related to stink bugs. Navigating The Late Season What are the factors affecting final sprays and digging decisions?
Three-Cornered Alfalfa Hopper
Three-cornered alfalfa hoppers are light green and wedgeshaped. They stand about ¼ inch high and are about ¼ inch long. Both adults and nymphs have piercing mouthparts and feed by penetrating the stem and sucking plant juices. They tend to feed in a circular fashion around a stem, making feeding punctures as they go. The damaged area typically swells and above ground root growth may occur. On peanuts, feeding may occur on limbs, leaf petioles or pegs.
Danitol Diamond EC Comite/Omite Warrior II Lannate Lorsban 4E Chlorpyrifos 15G Orthene Radiant SC Sevin Steward Thimet 20G Blackhawk Dimilin Intrepid Prevathon
P/F NL NL NL G NL G/E NL G G E G NL NL G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL E NL NL G E F G NL G NL NL G G NL NL F/G G F/G G/E NL G/E G NL G G NL P/F NL NL F G NL G NL NL E/G E NL NL G/E NL G/E NL G NL NL NL NL NL NL F NL NL NL NL NL NL P NL F/G P/F NL NL P/F G NL NL NL G F/G E E/G NL NL NL NL G F/G NL NL G NL NL NL NL NL G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL G/E NL G NL NL NL NL F NL NL G/E NL P NL G/E NL NL NL NL E NL NL E G G NL NL E G/E E E/G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL F/G F/G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL E/G
Edited by Dr. Mark Abney, University of Georgia Extension Entomologist E = Excellent Control; G = Good Control; F = Fair Control; P = Poor Control; NL = Not Labeled; LS = Labeled for suppression only 1 Dipel and others; * Insufficient data Burrower Bug
Burrower bugs can be hard to identify in the field and an infestation is often not detected until harvest. Burrower bugs have a black-tobrown body, small red eyes on a small-sized head. The upper wings of burrower bugs are shiny and semi-hardened with the membranous tip overlapping. Its legs are spiny, and needle-like, piercing, sucking mouth parts are visible with a hand lens. Burrower bug is closely related to stink bugs.
Threecornered Alfalfa Hopper
Threecornered alfalfa hoppers are light green and wedge shaped. They stand about ¼ inch high and are about ¼ inch long. Both adults and nymphs have piercing mouth parts and feed by penetrating the stem and sucking plant juices. They tend to feed in a circular fashion around a stem, making feeding punctures as they go. The damaged area typically swells, and above-ground root growth may occur. On peanuts, feeding may occur on limbs, leaf petioles or pegs. Danitol Diamond EC Comite/Omite Warrior II Lannate Lorsban 4E Chlorpyrifos 15G Orthene Radiant SC Sevin Steward Thimet 20G Blackhawk Dimilin Intrepid Prevathon P/F NL NL NL G NL G/E NL G G E G NL NL G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL E NL NL G E F G NL G NL NL G G NL NL F/G G F/G G/E NL G/E G NL G G NL P/F NL NL F G NL G NL NL E/G E NL NL G/E NL G/E NL G NL NL NL NL NL NL F NL NL NL NL NL NL P NL F/G P/F NL NL P/F G NL NL NL G F/G E E/G NL NL NL NL G F/G NL NL G NL NL NL NL NL G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL G/E NL G NL NL NL NL F NL NL G/E NL P NL G/E NL NL NL NL E NL NL E G G NL NL E G/E E E/G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL F/G F/G NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL NL E/G Edited by Dr. Mark Abney, University of Georgia Extension Entomologist
E = Excellent Control; G = Good Control; F = Fair Control; P = Poor Control; NL = Not Labeled; LS = Labeled for suppression only 1 Dipel and others; * Insufficient data Burrower Bug
Burrower bugs can be hard to identify in the field, and an infestation is often not detected until harvest. Burrower bugs have a black or brown body and small, red eyes on a small-sized head. The upper wings of burrower bugs are shiny and semi-hardened with the membranous tip overlapping. Its legs are spiny and needle-like. Piercing, sucking mouth parts are visible with a hand lens. Burrower bug is closely related to stink bugs. and feed directly on pegs and pods.
Eggs and small rootworms cannot survive in dry soil conditions. Therefore, irrigation or a wet weather pattern will favor development of the pest. Adult beetles can be readily detected in peanut fields. Their presence in moderate to high numbers is a warning that a problem could develop. SCOUTING
Finding rootworms in the soil is difficult, and injury is often not detected until after peanuts are dug when it is too late for control measures. Scout for SCR by pulling up plants and examining the roots and pods for feeding injury and sifting through the loose soil to find the larvae. It may be necessary to wash off wet or clay soils to clearly see damaged pods.
Rapid growth after rain can cause short splits or creases to occur in the outer pod wall that can be confused with SCR damage.
This pest is more likely to be found in low spots and heavier-textured soils under moist conditions or with center-pivot irrigation. Areas with increased loam content in the soil and poor drainage are also at risk of increased pod damage. MANAGEMENT
Rootworm management options are limited. Granular chlorpyrifos banded over the row is the only treatment proven to be effective against this pest in peanut. According to research conducted in Virginia and North Carolina, preventative insecticide applications made before infestations are established provide good control. There are no foliar insecticide treatments available, and targeting the adult beetle has not been shown to reduce injury or improve yields.
Determine the need to treat on a field-by-field basis. Decisions can be based on both adult populations and past history in peanut fields.
Treatment late in the season following significant rainfall may be too late to effectively prevent rootworm injury. Late-season treatments may also encourage spider mite outbreaks. PG SCR Advisory For V-C Producers
The southern corn rootworm is considered a major pest in North Carolina and Virginia peanuts. However, not all fields need to be treated for SCR.
Virginia Tech's Tidewater Agricultural Research and Extension Center entomologist Sally Taylor says, “Knowledge of the past history of rootworm injury is useful in determining the need for treatment. If injury has occurred in a field, it will again. "Keep field records on the extent of pod and peg injury noticed at harvest time. Pay particular attention to fields with higher levels of organic matter and clay. Rootworms have a higher survival rate in those soils due to higher moisture-holding capacity, and injury will typically be more severe than in light soils."
In the V-C, the Peanut Southern Corn Rootworm Advisory is available to aid producers to determine when fields need treatment. A digital version of the advisory can be found on the Virginia Cooperative Extension’s Publications and Educational Resources website at https:// www.pubs.ext.vt.edu/. Click on “Crops” to search the list, or search by publication identification for VCE Publication 444-351. It is also available for download as a PDF.
The advisory is designed to help determine in a few minutes whether fields need an insecticide treatment. PG
SCR larvae feed on pods, causing damage shown here. The discoloration is from storage.
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Planting Intentions
The year started with dire warnings about an increase in virus — tomato spotted wilt virus.
“Last year, TSWV made a comeback in Southeastern peanuts after a 10-year hiatus,” says Barry Tillman, University of Florida peanut breeder, in a recent blog post. “The last time we had appreciable spotted wilt in peanuts at the UF-IFAS research station in Marianna was in 2009.”
But that all changed in March. Despite the current focus on COVID-19, producers are still planting peanuts.
Moving Ahead With Planting
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Agriculture Statistics Service, U.S. peanut growers intend to plant 1.53 million acres in 2020, up 7% from 2019. Compared with last year, all states are expecting an increase or no change in planted area except Oklahoma.
In Georgia, planted area is expected up 10% from 2019. If realized, it will be the most acres planted since 2017.
Price Fluctuations Since Survey Response
The biggest differences to planting intentions are likely to come with crops other than peanuts. For instance, the NASS report says that cotton growers intend to plant 13.7 million acres in 2020, down less than 1% from last year. The largest increase in acres is expected in Texas.
Clemson University Farm Business Consultant Scott Mickey notes that cotton prices have continued to decline since producers were surveyed in the first two weeks of March.
“Pay attention to the prospective plantings report as cotton
Peanuts: Area Planted by State and U. S., Estimated (March 31, 2020)
State
Alabama Arkansas
Area Planted (1,000 acres) 2018 2019 2020 Percent
165 160.0 165.0 103% 26 34 35 103%
Florida 155 165 175 106%
Georgia 665 670 740 110%
Mississippi 25 20 20 100% New Mexico 5.5 4.7 5 106% North Carolina 102 104 105 101% Oklahoma 16 15 12 80% South Carolina 87 65 75 115% Texas 155 165 170 103%
Virginia 24 25 27 108%
U.S. Total 1,425.5 1,427.7 1,529.0 107%
prices were much higher during the survey period than they are now. At current prices, producers must evaluate alternative uses for acres originally intended for cotton.”
Change In Consumer Behavior
On the flip side, soybean prices have increased for a market that was already expected to be up 10% in plantings from 2019. According to the NASS report, soybean producers intend to plant 83.5 million acres in 2020. Compared with last year, planted acreage intentions are up or unchanged in 22 of the 29 estimating states.
“Soybean prices rallied 30 cents per bushel the past two weeks due to concerns about possible shipping disruptions and shrinking crops in Brazil and Argentina, as well as the Chinese soybean shortage. Hopefully, the United States will capture more of the soybean export market,” Mickey says.
For corn, the decreased use for ethanol production is likely to more than offset increased export and feed uses. NASS says growers surveyed intend to plant 97 million acres of corn for all purposes in 2020, up 8% from last year. If realized, this will be the highest planted acreage since 2012. Planted acreage for 2020 is expected to be up or unchanged from 2019 in 38 of the 48 estimating states.
How long with the COVID-19 lockdown last? Will the economy rebound quickly, or will the United States be thrown into a full-on recession? On the agriculture front, how will NASS’ June report of actual plantings differ from this prospective plantings report? Many questions, such as these, will go unanswered for a while. PG
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Know The Impact Of Your Decisions
Use the Peanut Risk Management Tool to see how various production practices affect pest response. Record management choices and outcomes in the Field Log.
By Amanda Huber
Apractical, easy-to-use management tool for Virginia-type peanut growers is available through the North Carolina State University Extension peanut website under the menu selection “Peanut Risk Tool and Field Log.” Download the Microsoft Excel-based tool to use in determining the risk of pests based on production decisions. It can also be used to record practices and inputs associated with production and pest management to chronicle field histories.
“The idea behind the Peanut Risk Tool was to make it easier to see the interrelationships among the practices we use to grow peanuts and how all types of pests respond, including weeds, arthropods, diseases and nematodes,” says David Jordan, North Carolina State University Extension peanut specialist.
Find the tool at https://peanut.ces.ncsu. edu/peanut-risk-tool-and-field-log/.
The goal was to take all the risk information that they had learned and put it into one tool where farmers could look at different production scenarios and see what their total risk was based on those decisions, he says.
Bringing An Idea To Fruition
NCSU Extension Entomologist Rick Brandenburg says “The Peanut Risk Tool is useful to help understand risk in production, to help make the best decisions for your farm situation before the first seed goes in the soil and to make
The idea behind the Peanut Risk Tool was to make it easier to see the interrelationships among practices, including the cost of those decisions.
wise decisions as the season progresses.”
The concept of predicting risk in North Carolina peanut production was developed by the late Jack Bailey, NCSU plant pathologist. “Jack wanted to make a system that took not only our research findings but also our experiences over the decades and put it into a program that helped us make wise management decision,” Brandenburg says.
“For a number of years, David Jordan has led an effort to continue Jack’s dream and put it into practice by providing guidelines for county Extension field faculty and a risk index calculator for peanut growers to reduce risk.” season progresses.
“It can help producers understand how everything they do will impact something else,” Brandenburg says. “Cultivar selection, tillage practices, planting date, plant populations and row spacing, and on down the list, will all influence the problems later in the season. You can’t make potential problems disappear, but you can stack the deck in your favor to reduce those issues that are most troublesome and stressful on your farm.”
He says researchers make every attempt to develop cost-effective approaches to management and look at the economics of risk reduction. “Sometimes that comes at a premium price and limits our ability to produce the crop in a cost-effective manner.
The tool enables growers and consultant to determine pest risk based on production plans.
“The best decisions are the result of using the best sources of information you can, mixed with your own personal experiences, and making those decisions in a timely manner.”
How It Works
Jordan says the tool, once downloaded, contains drop-down menus to select inputs.
“Put in your field history. Choose your rotation and inputs. Depending on your options, it’s going to show how much risk you are taking for the selected pests. It can be expanded to include more pests and categories of pests than what is currently in the tool. It is designed to be flexible and easily modified.”
Risk assessments are based on the stoplight’s red, yellow and green colors.
“If you see a lot of green, then it means those scenarios for the selected inputs are creating less risk for that pest. But if you see more red, you can go back and look at what you are doing to create that risk and what you might do differently to reduce it.
“We’ve tied all of these practices back to a cost,” Jordan says. “So adjusting risks may show an increase or decrease in costs. That’s part of the tool.”
Eliminating all of the uncertainties in farming isn’t possible. Using information gained from decades of peanut research can help producers make decisions that reduce some of the risk in their crop. Use the Field Log to record those decisions and yields achieved. PG
A Field Log For Record Keeping
Based on grower surveys, Extension peanut specialist David Jordan found that nearly two-thirds of producers keep most of their records on paper. A spreadsheet was used by 18% of growers, and 23% relied on documentation associated with the Worker Protection Standards. Another 8% of growers depended on their own memory, with 4% having a crop consultant keep their field records. Some producers use multiple ways of keeping up with the information.
For those who want to transition away from a system of keeping up with papers or relying on memory, the Field Log was included as a part of the Peanut Risk Management Tool.
“As I have transitioned away from paper to electronic, and I’m not all the way there yet, I find it much easier and efficient to pull things together to make a decision when the information is all in one place,” Jordan says. “The idea is to start populating this log with all the information you have for your peanuts.
“The value is you put all this information in and you look at the outcome for that year. Are yields what you expected? If not, and if you don’t already intuitively know, you can look at inputs and decisions to
The Field Log can be used to keep up with all management decisions and outcomes each year.
help figure out what affected the yield.”
Jordan says he hopes producers will give the new Field Log and Peanut Risk Management Tool a try. “It is flexible, and you can record what you think is most important. It is not tied to something on the web where others can gain access.
“If you don’t have a place where you are already recording this information, then it’s a good place to do that.” PG