PLANNING FOR UNCERTAINTY in Weather

By Mark Shanaberger

When prospective clients ask me, “Can my business afford a weather consulting service?” I always answer, “I don’t know how your business can afford not to.”

Weather consulting services, such as trueWeather, are backed by a team of expert meteorologists who provide weatherdependent businesses with the most accurate and actionable information on a granular or ZIP code level.

Reliance on mobile apps or local television broadcasts for weather information may lead to certain limitations. For instance, while a mobile app may provide a granular forecast, it lacks the expertise of a degreed meteorologist. On the other hand, a local television broadcast, while offering the knowledge of a meteorologist, may lack granularity due to time constraints.

Weather consulting services can help bridge that gap by giving you the expertise of a degreed meteorologist who can diagnose weather conditions on a granular level and tailor it into actionable information specific to your business needs.

Don’t Get PoPPED

One of the most common mistakes I have witnessed is businesses basing their daily plans solely on the Probability of Precipitation, or PoP. To be honest, I can’t blame anyone for not truly understanding what the PoP conveys, as it can be a bit confusing.

An 80 percent PoP for a forecast area does not mean it will rain for 80 percent of the time for every location within that area or that 80 percent of that forecast area will receive rain during that given time.

The PoP is the confidence level that precipitation will occur somewhere within a forecast area combined with the fraction of that area that will receive precipitation.

How Does This Impact Your Business?

So, how does this impact your business? Well, imagine if you look at the daily forecast for your area, see an 80 percent PoP for that day and proceed to halt outdoor operations for the entire day. That 80 percent PoP may have only been for an hour or two at some point during the day, which could have easily been navigated to salvage outdoor operations for the morning, the afternoon or both.

Instead, your business sacrificed efficiency, potential revenue and a happy customer base because you misunderstood the forecast. For many businesses, time outdoors is the only way to generate revenue, so missed opportunities can add up quickly and have you cursing the local meteorologist when it wasn’t their fault.

What Is The Forecast Area?

Another area of confusion is the forecast area on the mobile app or local television broadcast you’re using.

Forecast areas are defined by the model’s resolution, which varies from model to model. High-resolution models can be as precise as 1 kilometer, or about 0.6 miles, while some global models may be more like 20 to 30 kilometers, or 12 to 19 miles.

While a blend of models of different resolutions may yield forecasts on a more granular level, the accuracy of that model should not be considered inside of the least resolute model used in that blend.

That is to say, if both high-resolution and global models are used in a model blend, assuming the blend is accurate within a 12 to 19-square-mile box would be somewhat foolish.

This leads to a common misconception when accessing hourly weather updates on mobile applications. Users often believe these forecasts are highly localized and precise, which is not necessarily true.

If a weather app relies solely on short-term, high-resolution models, the forecasts might indeed be accurate for a specific location. However, if the blend includes high and lower-resolution global models, the forecast accuracy could be misrepresented if assumed to apply to areas smaller than approximately 12 square miles.

Can I Ask You A Question?

How can you determine the blend of weather models used by the weather app for making critical business decisions? The truth is, you cannot.

The specifics of the model blend, its quality control measures and the frequency of those checks are typically unknown to the user. Consequently, relying on such weather apps for business decisions can be akin to placing blind faith in a potentially unmonitored system, which can lead to inefficiencies and financial losses over time. Instead, consider partnering with a professional weather consulting service, like trueWeather. Such services offer meteorologist-produced forecasts tailored specifically to your business needs and service footprint

With access to meteorologists who are available year-round to answer questions at any time, you can receive quick and reliable information to support your decision-making process. Questions as simple as “What does this 80 percent PoP mean for our business today?” can be answered with actionable information in a matter of minutes. Moreover, these meteorologists are held accountable for their forecasts. If their predictions fail to meet your accuracy standards, you have the option to seek services elsewhere, ensuring accountability and high service standards.

Summing Things Up

The bottom line is that engaging in a weather consulting service provides significant advantages for businesses dependent on outdoor operations. It saves time and resources spent on self-diagnosing weather conditions, allowing you and your business to focus on your core activities, while leaving the forecasting to professionals.

Contact

Mark Shanaberger

Content Project Coordinator & Meteorologist at trueWeather° Phone: 833.4.TRUEWX www.truewx.com