5 minute read
Executive Director's Message
from The Buckeye, Sept/Oct 2020
by OGIA
Ken Fisher, ONLA Executive Director, ken@onla.org
The “beginning of the end” or the “end of the beginning”?
Covid medications are rapidly advancing to treat the most serious patients. Several promising vaccines are starting stage 3 trials with the hope for “good news” by the end of the year. Vaccine manufacturers are ramping up manufacturing capabilities to produce hundreds of millions of doses. Schools are trying to reopen with appropriate health and safety protocols. Businesses have invested in worker and customer safety processes to safely transact business. The government has pumped trillions of stimulus dollars into the economy to keep the markets and consumers optimistic. I’m hopeful we are entering the “beginning of the end” of this historic pandemic that has impacted every part of our world and we will all be back to “normal” in the coming months.
But realistically, this might be just the “end of the beginning”. We’ve absorbed the initial body-blow but now begin the process of figuring out a new normal as the pandemic recedes but doesn’t go away. Stubborn unemployment lingers for several more quarters, consumer spending declines, and the recession causes some businesses fail. A divided political class fails to maintain support for the economy, social unrest continues to create chaos, and it takes a while for the results of the November elections to take hold. We will have to adjust to a new economic, political, social, and health environment. Oh, and there’s no Big 10 Football this fall. Could it get worse? I hope this isn’t the scenario, but we could be experiencing the “end of the beginning”.
What does this mean for the Green Industry in Ohio? Ultimately, we’re a consumer goods industry. A large portion of our products and services end up sold at retail or to residential landscape customers. Another portion is purchased by commercial real estate and public sector clients for their landscaping needs. Consumer spending, unemployment, and the general economic health affects their spending. So regardless of the phase we’re in, as business owners and managers we need to set a personal and professional course that will safely deliver us to the other side.
Strong consumer demand this season was a welcome surprise. If a small business owner met or exceeded their 2020 operating plan, that’s probably a good place to start for 2021. But expect continued higher operating costs from worker and customer safety requirements. Health care costs – both direct and premiums – will likely climb. Perhaps not in the short term, but in the medium term the influx of government stimulus, strain on the energy sector, business closures and constrained/ consolidated supply chains may result in a level of inflation for input materials and services. and garden retailers were not likely a result of additional production – although some growers may have planned some expansion and made in-season adjustments. But a significant amount of the revenue growth was a result of less product shrink and limited supply chain discounting. Driven by need and potential market constraints, growers and retailers utilized better coordination and supply chain communication to manage shipments and inventories resulting in optimized performance. The industry demonstrated that consumers will pay a fair price for horticulture products and retailers don’t need to be timid about the price and value of our products.
Business owners would be wise to be prepared for a “downside” scenario by carefully managing debt, aggressively managing working capital (inventory, shrink, AR/AP), and keeping a close eye on fixed and variable cost increases. Labor will continue to be an issue. The H2A program seems safe at this time, but our entire industry will be impacted by reduced H2B workers in landscape. Even though unemployment may remain high, don’t expect a large pool of workers or lower labor costs.
Slow and steady wins this race in 2021. Consumers “staying at home” have demonstrated they will buy our industry. A strong economy before the pandemic, and government stimulus during, created an economic environment that gave consumers reasons and resources to purchase plants. With high unemployment and a lingering recession, there are no similar guarantees for 2021. While there are no signs that suggest our industry should pull back from the plan entering 2020, extrapolating 2020 final results to 2021 might prove to be a bit aggressive. Strong pricing and revenue growth can be achieved with careful management of product shrink and limiting discounting in season. Moderate growth projections with sound cost and cash management will be necessary.
Know that your ONLA team will continue to monitor the changing business environment, fight for our industry, and keep you informed of changes you need to be aware of.
What we do together matters—now more than ever!—when it comes to growing and protecting the future of our industry in Ohio and beyond. I appreciate your continued support of ONLA. Help us get the word out: the industry benefits from a growing ONLA membership. B
Ken can be contacted at ken@onla.org