Project evaluation Y1 Q2: January-March 2012
This evaluation considers the available evidence to measure the progress achieved against the seven stage one objectives of Open Briefing during January-March 2012. Four of these objectives have now been achieved only six months into stage one of the project. We are on target to achieve another two, and work has begun on achieving the last objective.
Objective 1: Establish the think tank and associated online presence Objective 1 has been achieved. (100% of target.) Open Briefing was registered with Companies House as a non-profit company limited by guarantee on 27 May 2011 and publicly launched on 10 October, when www.openbriefing.org went live. Open Briefing now has the following online presence: •
Website
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e-Bulletin (The Weekly Briefing)
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RSS feeds
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Social networks •
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Google+
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Twitter (includes desk lists)
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YouTube (includes desk playlists)
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LinkedIn (includes the Open Briefing Network)
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Issuu (digital library)
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Scribd (digital library backup)
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Mobile app
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Web apps
Our podcast was launched in November 2011 but technical issues meant it had to be withdrawn in January 2012 and we are currently working with a developer on a new system, which should be launched during Q3. The most recent additions to Open Briefing’s online presence was the launch of our Google+ page on 9 March 2012 and the Open Briefing Network on LinkedIn on 13 March 2012 (a private group for the Open Briefing team members). The website was upgraded and revised during March 2012.
Objective 2: Collect, assess and distribute at least 90 open source intelligence items Objective 2 has been achieved. (135% of target.) Open Briefing has now analysed, filed and distributed 121 open source intelligence items in the six months since launching. These items have been widely disseminated through our website, RSS feed, weekly e-bulletin and social networks. Our users have also further disseminated them through their own networks using the sharing tools built in to our website. Additional material was disseminated solely through our Twitter and YouTube networks or added to the digital library. The graph below gives an indication of the relative priority given to each desk. The political violence and dissent desk and resource security and climate change desk filed the most items of the issue desks, and the Middle East desk and Asia-Pacific desk filed the most items of the regional desks. 0
5
10
15
20
25
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35
Political violence and dissent Resource security and climate change Nuclear issues UK national security Middle East Asia-Pacific Americas Africa Europe Polar regions
Figure 1. Number of items filed by each issue desk and regional desk to date (October 2011-March 2012).
Objective 3: Publish at least 15 analyses, 3 dossiers and 2 briefings On target to achieve the goal set in objective 3. (50% of target in six months.) Open Briefing has published eight analyses, two articles, one dossier and one briefing to date. A media briefing, As the dust settles, was published on 5 August 2011 and was highlighted and quoted from in live reporting by The Guardian of the December 2011 grenade attacks in Liège, Belgium. A dossier was published on 20 October 2011 on the announcement by Eta of a definitive cessation of armed activity.
The analyses published during this quarter were on: •
Regional tensions between Turkey and Iran.
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Climate change and migration in Asia-Pacific.
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Maritime conflict resolution in East and Southeast Asia.
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The new US defence strategic guidance.
In addition, on 15 March, contributing analyst Kevjn Lim published an article on Middle East Online analysing the Iranian parliamentary elections. Planned publications for Q3 include a policy briefing to be published on 4 April 2012 outlining a sustainable security alternative to the war on drugs. And a briefing paper on the psychology of international relations and global security is in an early draft form.
Objective 4: Sign up at least 300 subscribers to the organisation's weekly e-bulletin and social networks Objective 4 has been achieved. (108% of target.) Open Briefing now has 325 known subscriptions to our social networks and ebulletin and other outputs (together with a further 150 known installs of our mobile and web apps). This includes some significant opinion formers and NGOs. Twitter is our most popular network, followed by Facebook. With support from a Network for Social Change fast-track funding grant, our Open Outreach project aims to greatly expand our network of subscribers, supporters and users, as this is where our ability to influence policy will come from. Central to this will be recruiting an outreach intern during the next quarter. 350 300 250
e-Bulletin Facebook
200
Twitter 150
YouTube LinkedIn
100
Other
50 0 Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Figure 2. Breakdown of number of subscribers by month and network (October 2011-March 2012).
Objective 5: Attract at least 500 visitors a month from around the world to the organisation's website Objective 5 has been achieved. (300% of target.) There was an average of 1,520 unique visitors a month to the Open Briefing website over this quarter (generating on average 2,090 visits and 4,480 page views a month). On average this quarter, visitors viewed two pages per visit and stayed on the site for two and a half minutes each time. Visits have come from all over the world, though a majority continue to come from Europe and North America (predominantly the United Kingdom and United States). These are excellent results for a new and unknown organisation relying solely on word of mouth to engage new users and supporters. 3500 3000 2500 2000 Visitors 1500
Visits
1000 500 0 Oct
Nov
Dec
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Figure 3. Number of unique visitors and website visits by month (October 2011-March 2012).
Objective 6: Carry out a thorough evaluation of the organisation's effectiveness and value On target to achieve the goal set in objective 6. (45% of target in six months.) Our progress in achieving our aim and objectives is being constantly monitored against qualitative and quantitative data from various independent sources. This will be summarised in four quarterly reports such as this one and the one released at the end of Q1. At the end of stage one a formal evaluation of the project will be carried out.
Objective 7: Secure longer-term funding for stage two of the project Work has now begun on achieving objective 7. The first priority was to secure the full funding needed for stage one of the project, which was achieved in February 2012. The required set up costs and operating costs for stage one were budgeted at £39,385. Open Briefing has so far raised £41,315 (105% of target) from grants from the Marmot Charitable Trust (£9,600) and the Polden-Puckham Charitable Foundation (£14,000) and two grants from the Network for Social Change (£5,500 and £12,00), and individual donations from members of the public totalling £215 (43% of our £500 donation target for the year). This means that fundraising efforts can now be focussed on stage two of the project, particularly efforts to secure major three-year funding. Suitable foundations have been identified and development of stage two of the project has started. An important goal of Open Briefing is to be at least partly self-financing as a social enterprise. As part of this, Open Briefing is developing arrangements with partner companies, which will allow us to develop and launch our consultancy service. Working with K&T Research Services, we will be providing reduced-cost open source intelligence training courses for journalists and NGO researchers and interns. Working with Wikistrat, we hope to offer clients innovative consultancy based around simulations and scenario planning and leveraging their huge online network of experts and analysts.
Other developments This quarter saw a significant expansion of the Open Briefing team to include six contributing analysts (retitled from associate analysts) and an associate editor. These volunteers have increased the activity of the intelligence desks and made a significant contribution to the capacity of such a small organisation. They are all experts in their fields and bring considerable knowledge and experience to Open Briefing. Please see www.openbriefing.org/about/staff for their biographies. As part of our sustainable security project, Open Briefing’s Executive Director took part in an E3G climate security roundtable with US officials and was interviewed by a researcher from Scientists for Global Responsibility about British military spending and R&D priorities. This has encouraged us to actively widen the scope of our sustainable security advice and cooperation to include all NGOs and think tanks in future, and not just Oxford Research Group as originally envisaged. Since February 2012, Open Briefing has been a featured non-profit on Twylah, together with organisations of the calibre of Human Rights Watch, WWF, Save the Children and Amnesty International. See www.twylah.com/featured/non-profits.
Future developments Key initiatives for the next quarter include: •
Re-launching the Open Briefing podcast.
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Recruiting a further six contributing analysts to provide material for the intelligence desks and two interns to assist with the special projects and maintaining our social networks.
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Developing the special projects and publishing a policy paper on a sustainable security alternative to the war on drugs.
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Holding a meeting of the advisory board in London.
Key initiatives over the next six months include: •
Launching the Open Briefing consultancy.
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Developing v2.0 of the RC(C) Evaluation System, with a simpler but more thorough percentage likelihood rating.
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Launching Café Sécurité, a university society network of weekly discussion groups for students of international relations and related subjects.
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Registering as a charity with the Charity Commission.
Conclusion The successes we have already achieved and the widespread interest Open Briefing is generating have set us on course to achieve and likely surpass all the planned stage one objectives. It is worth highlighting that this progress has been achieved in only six months and with only one part-time staff member and several volunteers. One of the key successes of Open Briefing this quarter has been to reach out beyond the peace sector to those in business and others with more ‘mainstream’ backgrounds, without alienating that traditional support base. This has also meant we have been able to attract an unexpected mix of people as contributing analysts, with many coming from a military, intelligence and/or political risk background. One key requirement identified during this quarter is the need for a dedicated intelligence desk coordinator. This role would entail recruiting contributing analysts and coordinating their work and updating the intelligence desks and related social networks. This would free the Executive Director from having to undertake these activities on a daily basis and allow him to concentrate on more strategic matters. The organisation has been launched successfully and is now concentrating on the core research and advocacy work of the intelligence desks and special projects. Our development efforts will focus on expanding our networks of outreach and influence, and building our fundraising base to enable the required extra capacity and secure longer-term funding. Chris Abbott, Executive Director 30 March 2012