Project evaluation Y1Q4: July-September 2012
This evaluation considers the available evidence to measure the progress achieved against the seven objectives of Open Briefing during the final quarter of stage 1 (July-September 2012).
Objective 1: Establish the think tank and associated online presence Objective 1 has been achieved. (100% of target.) Open Briefing was registered with Companies House as a company limited by guarantee on 27 May 2011 and publicly launched on 10 October, when openbriefing.org went live. By the end of Q4, our online presence included: •
Website
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e-Bulletin (The Weekly Briefing)
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RSS feeds
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Social networks
Google+
Twitter (includes desk lists)
YouTube (includes desk playlists)
LinkedIn (includes the Open Briefing Network)
Issuu (digital library)
Scribd (digital library backup)
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Podcast
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Mobile app
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Web apps
On 24 July 2012, we launched the Open Briefing podcast, which uses custom-built text-to-speech technology to automatically create podcasts from the items filed under our different intelligence desks. New versions of our mobile and web apps were also released during Q4. In order to measure our online influence and relative importance, Open Briefing uses a basket of three different social media influence metrics (Klout, Kred and PeerIndex) and Google PageRank. An average of these four metrics gave us an influence score of 43.5/100 at the end of Q4 (up from 40.15/100 in Q3).
Objective 2: Collect, assess and distribute at least 90 open source intelligence items Objective 2 has been achieved. (280% of target.) Open Briefing had analysed, filed and distributed 250 open source intelligence items by the end of Q4. These items were widely disseminated through our website, weekly e-bulletin, podcast, mobile and web apps, RSS feeds and social networks. Our users have also further disseminated them through their own networks using the sharing tools built in to our website. Additional material was disseminated solely through our Twitter and YouTube networks or added to the digital library. The graph below gives an indication of the relative priority given to each desk during stage 1. The political violence and dissent desk and resource security and climate change desk filed the most items of the issue desks, and the Asia and Pacific desk and Middle East desk filed the most items of the regional desks. We are actively recruiting contributing analysts and associate researchers to expand the activity of the desks that have filed the least material to date. 0
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Political violence and dissent Resource security and climate change Nuclear issues UK national security Asia and Pacific Middle East Africa Americas Europe Polar regions
Objective 3: Publish at least 15 analyses, 3 dossiers and 2 briefings Objective 3 has been achieved. (170% of target.) By the end of stage 1, Open Briefing had published one book, two briefing papers, four dossiers, 11 articles and 16 analyses and intelligence briefs. Q4 was a particularly prolific period. The issues covered by Open Briefing analyses and intelligence briefs during Q4 were: •
The deployment of Russian MiG-31BMs to an Arctic airbase off the northern coast of Russia.
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An analysis of a YouTube video purportedly showing missing US freelance journalist Austin Tice.
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The significance of a shift in the balance of oil supply and demand from the US and the EU to Asia.
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The potential for diplomatic competition between Australia and China in the South Pacific.
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Chinese economic considerations within the South China Sea dispute.
The articles published by members of the Open Briefing team during Q4 were: •
Lawrence Gitonga Mwongera, “Making sense of political-related violence in Kenya,” openDemocracy, 14 September 2012.
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Martin Quadroy, “The burden of peace in the Taiwan Strait,” The Quadroy Files, 31 August 2012.
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Lawrence Gitonga Mwongera, “Taking stock in Somalia,” openDemocracy, 30 August 2012.
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Kevjn Lim, “Iran’s secret weapon,” National Interest, 9 August 2012.
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Maitreya Buddha Samantaray, “What now for the Philippines Communist insurgency,” openDemocracy, 31 July 2012.
The dossier published during Q4 was on: •
The prospects for peace in Thailand’s deep south.
Open Briefing published its first intelligence brief at the very end of Q4. This was an analysis of a YouTube video purportedly showing missing US freelance journalist Austin Tice, as part of an intelligence requirement from a US civil society organisation on the likely location and condition of Tice. Following imagery and technical analyses, we conclusively identified the prisoner in the video as Tice but also identified several irregularities that indicated it might not be a genuine jihadist video.
Objective 4: Sign up at least 300 subscribers to the organisation's weekly e-bulletin and social networks Objective 4 has been achieved. (230% of target.) Open Briefing finished Q4 with 684 known subscriptions to our social networks and e-bulletin and other outputs (up from 511 at the end of Q3) together with a further 78 known installs of our mobile and web apps. Twitter has the most subscribers (237), followed by our e-bulletin (172). 700
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500 Twitter e-Bulletin
400
Facebook LinkedIn
300
YouTube Other
200
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Objective 5: Attract at least 500 visitors a month from around the world to the organisation's website Objective 5 has been achieved. (400% of target.) This target has been achieved in 11 out of 12 months during stage 1. The average across Q4 was 2,000 unique visitors a month (generating on average 2,630 visits and 4,556 page views a month). On average, visitors viewed 1.7 pages per visit and stay on the site for just under two minutes each time. Compared to Q3, this was a higher number of visitors during Q4 but those visitors spent less time on the site and viewed fewer pages. The reason for this is not clear. Visits have come from all over the world, though a majority continue to come from North America and Northern Europe (predominantly the United States and United Kingdom). The website currently has a Google PageRank of 5/10 (up from 4/10 at the end of Q3), a Webutation score of 100/100 and a Web of Trust “trustworthiness� rating of 59/100. 3500 3000 2500 2000 Visitors Visits
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Objective 6: Carry out a thorough evaluation of the organisation's effectiveness and value Objective 6 has been achieved. (100% of target.) Our progress in achieving our stage 1 aim and objectives was constantly monitored against qualitative and quantitative data from various independent sources. This was summarised in four quarterly reports and a final evaluation of the pilot project.
Objective 7: Secure longer-term funding for stage 2 of the project Work on achieving objective 7 is in progress. (4% of target.) The priority for most of stage 1 was to secure the full funding needed for the pilot project, which was achieved in April 2012. Fundraising efforts during Q4 focussed on developing and finalising our plans for stage 2 of the project. We did, however, submit funding applications totalling £23,230 to the Andrew Wainwright Reform Trust and the Network for Social Change. Furthermore, we finished Q4 with a £7,000 surplus, which was carried forward for use in stage 2.
Other developments The most significant other development during Q4 was the agreement, in September 2012, of a trial partnership with Crisis Action to meet the intelligence requirements (IRs) of their international network of 100 civil society organisations. These IRs will predominantly relate to Crisis Action’s three priority conflicts (currently Sudan, Syria and Israel-Palestine). However, we will also provide intelligence in support of emergency response, as well as produce ad hoc pieces of analysis and maintain several watching briefs on potential conflicts. Outside of this process, the majority of our work will continue to be in response to the events and issues that our own network’s collective experience and expertise suggest warrant attention from Open Briefing. Q4 was the final quarter in the pilot project and “proof of concept” that was stage 1 (2011-12). An overall evaluation of stage 1 has been carried out and is available on the Open Briefing website. We launched stage 2 (2012-15) on 10 October 2012. The project proposal for stage 2 is also available on our website. Chris Abbott, Executive Director 16 October 2012