Research

Location, location, LOCATION

Cities are incubators of innovation and knowledge-sharing, boosted by the daily influx of commuters heading to offices. As workplaces in most urban areas remain closed or operating well below capacity, what does the future hold for our metropolises? – by Michelle Sturman

Cities are the primary driving engine of economies – more than 80% of global GDP is generated in cities, according to the World Bank – and hubs of ingenuity, social interaction and culture. In existence for thousands of years, many have risen and fallen, while others have been rebuilt time and again following fires, invasions, plagues, famine and war.

The advent of the most recent global pandemic – COVID-19 – has turned vibrant cities into relative ghost towns in many areas of the world over the past year. Disease and viruses have always thrived in high-density locations, and in the 21st century, this has been exacerbated by mass transportation.

Currently, work-from-home (WFH) mandates and retail closures are being rolled back across many countries as vaccination programmes make progress. However, expectations for a return en masse to the office are slowly diminishing.

The continued prevalence of hybrid working and the slow reopening of workplaces continues to affect the liveliness of cities as, certainly during the working week, office-based employees are significant contributors to their economy.

BACK TO REALITY

Thought leaders on post-COVID cities are broadly divided into two camps: those who believe we have short memories, and that everything will return to the way it was pre-coronavirus as opposed to others who expect a radical rethink of the way cities operate. The reality is likely somewhere in-between.

An excellent report for a broad and balanced overview is Arup’s Future of Offices: In a Post-pandemic World. Arup is a professional services company focused on the built environment. The study investigates some of the themes and thinking from its property teams around the world, revealing experiences, insights and variations from each global region.

As with the majority of pre-existing trends, the coronavirus crisis has exacerbated and accelerated them. Cities are in a perpetual state of metamorphism, but the pandemic exposed their lack of resilience.

Under the moniker of “green recovery” and “build back better”, governments are seeking to ramp up sustainable practices believed to not only help fortify cities against future virus outbreaks but also expedite the race to net-zero.

This goes hand-in-hand with existing strategies including the reduction of traffic pollution – for example, the introduction of low-emission zones and car-free streets. Processes adopted over the past year such as reclaiming roads for pedestrians, social distancing and the increase of cycling routes will remain. The rise of electric modes of transport is also expected.

There is an upswell in commitment from major centres around the world to become more sustainable and reach net-zero. As of April 2021, more than 700 cities have signed up for the Race to Zero campaign, while concepts such as the 15-minute city (see page 46 for more information) are also gaining acceptance.

At a recent meeting between leading mayors, Chair of C40 Cities Eric Garcetti and UN Secretary-General António Guterres, the latter said investment in recovery [from the pandemic] is a generational opportunity to put climate action, clean energy and sustainable development at the heart of cities’ strategies and policies.

Guterres continued: “How we design power generation, transport and buildings in cities – how we design the cities themselves – will be decisive in getting on track to achieve the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals.

“We need a revolution in urban planning and urban mobility: including better fuel efficiency; zero-emission vehicles; and shifts towards walking, cycling, public transport, and shorter commutes. Cities stand to gain most from phasing out coal: clean air; green outdoor spaces; healthier people.”

THE OFFICE IMPACT

To ascertain what the post-pandemic city will look like is complicated, and much of it is related to offices and those working in them. Office workers represent the beating heart of urban areas during weekdays, and the rise of hybrid working will translate into fewer commuters.

Increased WFH means many businesses, notably large corporates, are already planning to reduce office space post-COVID. The Global Office Impact Study & Recovery Timing report – part of the New Perspective: From Pandemic to Performance series – by commercial real estate services firm Cushman & Wakefield suggests that worldwide vacancies will rise from 10.9% pre-pandemic to 15.6% in 2022.

Rents are forecast to decline 10.9% peak-to-trough from Q2 2020 to Q1 2022. It is not until 2025 that both office vacancies and rents are expected to return to pre-crisis levels.

Some impact will be offset by economic and population growth and office-use penetration, resulting in an overall increase in demand over a ten-year forecast. Equally, ‘de-densification’ of office space due to social distancing may also disrupt the negative WFH trend.

KPMG’s The Future of Towns and Cities Post-COVID-19 research indicates that the availability of more affordable prime commercial property will attract different tenants, enabling cities to serve their inhabitants differently. The professional services network says possible newcomers could include universities helping to support workers acquire new skills or privately-sponsored incubators.

Speaking to OPI, KPMG Chief Economist Yael Selfin comments: “I expect that business life will continue to inject vibrancy into city centres. The pandemic has transformed the way we work, with hybrid working becoming a reality for many professions. But the focus on collaboration will only increase, with people travelling to workshops and business gatherings more frequently than before to cement relationships and exchange new ideas. That could see a larger share of interactions expand beyond the traditional office space, creating more dynamic city centres.”

REPURPOSING OF SPACES

A reduction in traditional office premises may result in the decentralisation of the CBD as demand for space changes. But it won’t stay empty for long as it will be repurposed for other uses, including housing, cultural and social amenities.

In fact, as this article was being written, the City of London Corporation published a report stating how the Square Mile (meaning the financial district) must adapt to post-pandemic economic and social trends.

A few key themes stand out. One is working with the property sector to promote sustainable, flexible and adaptable buildings and explore new ways to utilise vacant space (ie offices), such as change of use to residential units.

The City hopes to have a successful 5G deployment by the end of 2022 and work with the private sector to provide workspace, digital skills, etc, to curate an ecosystem of high-potential, tech-led businesses not traditionally located in the Square Mile. It also wants to enable cultural and creative industries, which may include low-cost, long-term lets in empty and low-use spaces.

City of London Corporation Policy Chair Catherine McGuinness says: “We have listened to businesses of all sizes in the City to understand how the pandemic has affected their ways of working and their needs going forward. Firms have told us they remain committed to retaining a central London hub, but how they operate will inevitably change to reflect post-pandemic trends, such as hybrid and flexible working.”

Research by professional services firm JLL reveals four key factors that will play a role in the future of workplace requirements: remote working, office design, technology and commuting plans. In its Future Office Demand study, JLL points to the importance of the spatial patterns of office demand, which will evolve as digitisation, new living and workplace preferences, sustainability, and a resilient urban model taking hold.

The rise of the hyperconnected city region, says the firm, will shift the spatial format of office

The focus on collaboration will only increase… That could see a larger share of interactions expand beyond the traditional office space

demand, making it more diverse and driven by three prime factors: an increased desire for liveable, well-connected suburbs and smaller cities; a multi-use urban core; and clusters of innovation-based activities. This ‘distributed urbanisation’ trend has the advantage of regional scale with local proximity and reduced commuting, flexible working and micro-mobility.

So where does all this leave the office? While the true extent of any upheaval and demand for city-based workplaces won’t be known in the near term, Cushman & Wakefield believes the ecosystem will be a mix of traditional office space, home offices and semi-public areas.

The pendulum is unlikely to swing too far in any one particular direction. This is especially valid for companies that rely on innovation, knowledge and creativity to generate value and sales – the city will remain the epicentre of this.

THE 15-MINUTE CITY

Developed in 2016 by Carlos Moreno, Scientist and Professor at the University Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne and Special Envoy for Smart Cities for Paris City Hall, the so-called 15-minute city is one which puts access to amenities within just that – a walk, bicycle ride or trip on public transport of just 15 minutes.

In a video, Professor Moreno sums up the 15-minute city as this: “It’s putting the hearts of women and men in the heart of the city. It’s local services, accessible to everyone, less than a quarter of an hour away on foot or by bicycle. It’s nature and biodiversity very close to us, [with] pedestrian streets, green streets and less traffic.

“The 15-minute city is one location, several uses. It’s saying hello to everyone. It’s services that contribute to making a peaceful city. It’s being able to live more freely in the city by enjoying our neighbourhood. It’s the city for everyone.”

TIMEKEEPING

Urban and city planning has for years focused on getting as many people as far as possible in the shortest period of time. Moreno, meanwhile, uses the concept of chrono-urbanism with a focus on time and accessibility rather than distance.

The premise of the 15-minute city is that people should be able to enjoy a better quality of life if they can fulfil several social functions: living, working, commerce, healthcare, education and entertainment. This can be attained through a restructured urban area based on proximity, diversity, density and ubiquity.

Moreno reimagines cities that are no longer separated into distinct districts of home and work. COVID-19 has brought this thinking to the fore. In a recent white paper – Introducing the “15-minute City”: Sustainability, Resilience and Pace Identity in Future Post-pandemic Cities – Moreno et al offer a modified version of the 15-minute city, identifying density, proximity, diversity and digitisation as the key components to managing pandemics within a flexible framework.

As the call for more sustainable urban areas grows more insistent, encouraging human-powered and public transportation and becoming a ‘smart city’ within the backdrop of the 15-minute concept is one way in which to meet climate change goals. Naturally, the 15-minute mantra cannot feasibly be accommodated by all, but adaptations are already underway in locations such as Melbourne, Australia, and Detroit in the US, where the idea of the ‘20-minute neighbourhood’ is being worked on.

MOVING CLOSER

A revealing survey undertaken by Arup, a professional services company focused on the built environment, suggests the reality of the 15-minute city is ever-closer due to COVID-19. The City Living Barometer questioned over 5,000 residents across London, Paris, Madrid, Berlin and Milan to assess the liveability of each city.

In London, 47% said amenities were too far away. 52% used their local shops more than ever during lockdowns, and 77% expect they will continue to do so after the pandemic. Overall, responses from all participants stated improvements to their city life throughout the crisis with less traffic (37%) and the reduction of air pollution (30%).

With Londoners complaining of services not being close enough, it will come as no surprise to discover that they were the largest number of people (59%) who had considered leaving the city during the coronavirus crisis and the highest (41%) that had moved out temporarily.

Talking about the results, Arup Masterplanning and Urban Design Fellow Malcolm Smith notes: “The pandemic has brought us closer to the vision of the 15-minute city as, for many, it has cut out the commute. It has shone a light on the importance of developing cities in smaller modules, with essential services concentrated around community hubs.

“I hope COVID-19 will lead to lots of smaller scale but widespread interventions – bringing green spaces to grey places, the prioritisation of cycling and walking, and the re-evaluation of local amenities. The move to the 15-minute city will help us hold on to the things we’ve gained temporarily – less traffic, cleaner air and, for many, more time with family.”

For more information on Carlos Moreno and the 15-minute city, visit: www.moreno-web.net