How Climate Change Could Affect the BC Wine Industry

By Gary Symons In the past, farmers spent their time talking about the weather. Today, they talk about the climate. The difference is that, in what now seems like the distant past, the Earth’s climate was considered generally stable and unchanging, while the weather was changing all the time. The past 20 years has changed all that, starting in BC with the wildfires in 2003 that first raised wide concerns about smoke taint. Flash forward to 2022, in the wake of a terrible year of floods, wildfires, and the record setting heat dome that killed 595 people, and scientists now know the climate is changing rapidly, with unpredictable results. Elizabeth Wolkovich, associate professor of Forest and Conservation Sciences at UBC, is studying how global warming will affect wineries and grape growers, with a focus on the Okanagan Valley and regions of California. “The grapes used in wine are very sensitive to changes in the weather, which is part of what makes wine so interesting,” Wolkovich says. “But, that means grapes are also sensitive to long-term climate changes.” Work by Wolkovich and many other scientists has confirmed that grape growers face an uncertain future that will bring grave challenges and large opportunities. On the one hand, global warming could decrease the risk of frost events, and open up new areas in BC for the planting of vineyards. Those vineyards could be both higher in elevation, or further north. But on the other hand, climate change has also been found to cause more extreme weather events, which can be catastrophic for farmers.

BC is grappling with exactly that this year, as blueberry farmers lost thousands of acres of crops due to flooding; grape growers and others have lost crops due to a record cold snap in December; and much of the province was affected by the heat dome and devastating wildfires. “The overall average looks better for areas of northern wine growing regions like BC, because they’ve generally been limited by temperatures that were too cool, especially in the winter,” Wolkovich explains. “But the thing that impacts vine death in the winter is a single low in the winter, a single daily temperature that’s ultra low, and I think that is a really difficult thing to predict exactly. “So, in the next 10 to 20 years it feels like the market forces are driving an expansion of the wine region, but certainly, these events that pop up, like that big frost event in Kelowna this year, that gives people pause.” The Okanagan is hardly alone in this, and around the world data is accumulating that suggests wine regions are becoming generally warmer, but are facing much more extreme weather events. In France, for example, grapes are now being harvested two weeks earlier than historical norms, and in 2020 the nation had its earliest harvest in history. However, the increased warmth is also making certain varietals increasingly untenable, including the Merlot that is a mainstay of Bordeaux-style wines. For the first time in centuries, Bordeaux winemakers are now adding more climate-resistant varietals as acceptable for use in Bordeaux wines. Then, in 2021, most French wine regions were slammed by an unprecedented frost event, resulting in the smallest harvest since 1957 and resulting in $2 billion USD in losses. Looking globally, several studies published in the National Academy of Sciences suggest the shift of warmer temperatures toward the north and south - or ‘poleward’ - will lead to a ““huge shake-up in the geographic distribution of wine production (Lallanilla, 2013)” in the next half century (Hannah et al., 2013). “The practical and economic impact would be monumental,” the report states, causing premium wine producing regions to shift poleward. “Many quality wine growing regions now on the margin for secure wine production will become safe and other regions will be able to expand their grape selection … (but) some areas would cease production all together.” In fact, one dire prediction states that by 2100, the United States could lose up to 81% of its premium wine grape acreage, among them vineyards in Napa, Sonoma, and Barbara counties. Many of those same studies indicate that in the west, including BC, Oregon and Washington, “the lift in temperatures could dictate that same shift to warmer grape varieties, as well. This could prove to be a boon to those regions and wine production.” Again, the research about global warming points to a good news vs. bad news scenario.

Scientists throughout the world point to the likelihood of more northerly and southerly wine regions expanding, and completely new regions opening up that historically would be unsuitable for quality wine grapes. An economic report by Elizabeth Yu at McGill University examined that question, and saw opportunities across Canada. “Climate catastrophe is the greatest catalyst of this change with wine-making countries experiencing the threat of increased fires, extreme heat, and drought,” Yu says. “While this means that places like Napa Valley in the United States and Swartland in South Africa need to pivot their wine-growing strategies to mitigate heat damage, it also means that other cooler climates are seeing longer, hotter summers and therefore an increased capacity for wine production. These changes do not bode well for the imported wines Canadians regularly consume. However, it does present a new opportunity of growth for Canada’s wine industry, who will see vast temperature shifts in the coming years if climate change is not effectively mitigated.” For example, Yu notes that regions in Quebec could only grow cold-weather hybrids like Vidal and Seyval, “but with increased temperatures and longer summers, winemakers are expanding to include grapes which require a hotter and longer period of growth.” Similar things are happening in Europe, as well, where sweet German wines are being replaced by excellent dry vintages, and the area allowed for table wines has expanded northward.

Even countries that were not traditional wine producers like England and Denmark are now seeing the establishment of successful wineries, but wine growers in Italy and Spain are struggling with scorched leaves, dessicated grapes, and devastating vine damage.

So, what does this mean for wines in BC?

Wolkovich says there’s no doubt BC wine regions will grow in size, but the question remains as to where those regions will be. She’s advocating for more localized research into the suitability of various regions for wine grapes, and also into which grapes are tolerant to both extreme heat and extreme cold.

“I think that’s a place where growers and BC could be interested in trying to figure out that relationship a little bit better, or trying to just get some varieties that might be a little bit later ripening and heat tolerant, that are also cold tolerant,” Wolkovich says. “That’s not an area in the old world wineberry regions of Europe that has been studied well, because there aren’t a lot of places in Europe that have these cold extremes and the heat extremes. And I think that’s one of the pieces that’s really tricky for BC growers.” The biggest problem for researchers, Wolkovich says, is that global warming does not create straightforward changes. For example, if climate change in BC results in parts of Vancouver Island being both warmer and drier, the region would be very suitable for a major expansion in wine production.

However, as we saw during the ‘atmospheric river’ that caused catastrophic flooding in BC, global warming also causes more moisture to enter the atmosphere, and therefore causes more rain in certain regions. “So depending on which way it goes, that could be a much worse place to grow or a place to really start specializing deeply in sparkling,” Wolkovich said. “Or it could be a place that will be, you know, really lovely. And that’s the problem with the precipitation predictions. Right now, we just don’t know.”

The key now, she adds, is research by the industry and government. “If I was the growers in the Okanagan, or in BC, who were looking to invest to help my region perfectly, I would be thinking about better climate networks and getting better climate data,” she said. “Also, we have over 1100 plant varieties, and we just don’t have a good sense of how cold hardy they are, or how they handle heat domes. “I think there’s a lot of talk of getting some really early ripening varieties and getting some really late ripening varieties to try to reduce your risk in July and August, but I think we don’t have the information to help growers with that very well right now. So that’s a big issue.” 

I think there’s a lot of talk of getting some really early ripening varieties and getting some really late ripening varieties to try to reduce your risk in July and August.