WHICH OPTION SUITS OREGON BEST AS NCAA CONFERENCE SHUFFLING BEGINS?

Looking at the pros and cons of Oregon football’s new conference options with the future of NCAA football cloudy as ever. BY BRADY RUTH

Ducks outside linebacker Mase Funa (47) grabs and holds onto the feet of a Trojan. Oregon Ducks football take on USC Trojans in the Pac-12 Championship game at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Los Angeles, Calif., on Dec. 18, 2020. (Maddie Knight/Emerald)

Earlier this summer, long tenured Pac-12 schools USC and UCLA announced their plans to join the Big 10; sending West Coast college football into a frenzy.

Super conferences appear to be the future of college football with the SEC, Big 10 and Big 12 all set to expand over the next five seasons. On the other hand, the Pac12 is shrinking and so the question must be asked: what happens to the University of Oregon?

The following theories and offers are ordered from what looks to be the best option to the worst.

REMAIN IN THE PAC-12: Oregon could choose the simple option of staying put in the conference that has included the Ducks since its inception in 1915. But is the easiest option the best, especially with the money decreasing?

PRO: Boasting a 327-298-25 record all-time against the teams set to stay in the Pac-12, Oregon could absolutely become the top dog of the conference. Especially with the program’s recent success winning a conference leading four championships.

CON: The two programs that left are such storied and renowned teams and without the big names in the conference, the Pac-12 could easily slip under the radar of the nation. But potentially more importantly, the conference will be bringing in less money. An article from Sports Illustrated reports that with USC and UCLA the conference was expected to bring in nearly $500 million per year, or an average of $42 million per team. That number could drop to as low as $300 million and $30 million per remaining team with the SoCal duo’s departure. The Pac-12 would weaken with respect to talent, money and recognition.

BOTTOM LINE: Oregon could likely be a dominant force in a much weaker conference. It worked for Clemson. It could work for the Ducks, but if it doesn’t, the Pac-12 could quickly become forgotten. If Oregon senses a clearer path to the College Football Playoff elsewhere, it wouldn’t make sense to stay.

JOIN THE BIG 12: Reports from sources like The Athletic have surfaced that Oregon, Washington, Colorado, Utah, Arizona and Arizona State are discussing leaving the Pac12 to join the Big 12.

PRO: A rigorous schedule filled with opponents from Washington to West Virginia would ensure that the conference champion would be a high-caliber team. Should Oregon be able to find success in the Big 12, it would likely receive national recognition like the program has only seen once before during its 2015 playoff run.

CON: Money. 247Sports reported that the Pac-12 was the third “richest” conference in 2020, bringing in over $533 million dollars. The Big 12 was ranked No. 5, making $409 million, the least amount of any Power Five conference. It could be a huge mistake to go to a less wealthy conference if the Pac-12 is still going to be pulling in money from TV deals, especially if Oregon will have to split those funds with the 17 other teams in this proposed super conference.

BOTTOM LINE: Joining the Big 12 would open new doors for Oregon, but with the severe decrease in income, it may not be worth the move.

FOLLOW USC AND UCLA TO THE BIG 10: There are many rumors saying that the Big 10 is looking to add Oregon and Washington along with the newly acquired UCLA and USC. It’s far more likely that the Big 10 will pursue the independent Notre Dame, which has its own television deal with NBC. If the Big 10 can’t get Notre Dame to switch, it could start looking at schools like Oregon and Washington.

PRO: Money. The Big 10 was the conference with the most dough in the aforementioned rankings. The Ducks would also increase their views nationwide. The Medium reported that in 2021, three of the top four most watched programs hailed from the Big 10. Oregon ranked 10th in views at 2.57 million but could definitely benefit from more national exposure.

CON: The competition. The Big 10 is good, really good. Historically, Oregon has struggled against the Big 10, showing a .397 winning percentage all time against current Big 10 teams, including newly-added USC and UCLA. The Ducks could quickly sink to the middle of the conference and kill the momentum that it feels the program has been building for years now.

BOTTOM LINE: History would not be on the side of Oregon should it decide to move to the Big 10, but there would be a nice upgrade in cash and exposure. Besides, Oregon is trending up right now, maybe the Ducks could really soar in the Midwest.

ATLANTIC COAST CONFERENCE MERGER: This would be an absolute super conference. The two conferences are in conversation about a potential partnership or merger. This would be a conference with the size and TV deals to compete with the SEC and Big 10.

PRO: Size. It would be neat to have a conference that literally spans from Seattle to Miami. Suddenly, East Coast fans would have a vested interest in what happens out in California. The local TV markets would now pull views from three time zones away. Size would bring in money and it’s not unreasonable to think that Oregon would be an upper third team.

CON: Travel. Flying athletes across the country every other week just to keep up with the SEC doesn’t seem overly feasible. There are also rumors that some ACC teams are leaving to join the ACC in the near future so the merger likely wouldn’t last more than a few seasons.

BOTTOM LINE: The East vs West Coast “rivalry” would be cool, and it would definitely benefit Oregon basketball to get to play teams like Duke and North Carolina, but this is a football article and a merger seems like more of a hassle than a solution. This may not be the most realistic long term answer and seems more like a quick fix.

Of course, this is all speculation. While a short term TV deal through 2026 with the Pac-12 seems the most likely right now, it does open up many options for the upcoming seasons of Duck football. So much is unclear in the future of NCAA conferences, but Oregon has options. It comes down to the waiting and the bidding and the powers that be to determine the future of football in Eugene.

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