4 minute read
THE PITFALLS OF CRISIS RESPONSE AS A PRIMARY STRATEGY
Recent conflicts around the world have exposed the limitations of the traditional approach of relying on crisis response as a primary risk mitigation strategy in the aviation industry. Take for instance the recent conflicts in Sudan and the Russia/Ukraine conflict. We know that multiple international commercial aircraft were destroyed in Sudan and over 20 military and civilian air assets of various types suffered significant damage. Further disruption was caused by the closure of Sudan’s airspace, which is one of the most heavily travelled flight corridors. Under sanctions imposed by Russia when the Ukraine conflict began, 400 leased aircraft were repossessed, with a further 12 stranded in Ukraine.
These events would have been entirely avoidable if the initial stages of risk management had been executed effectively. The ability to identify risk, analyse and assess it and, as a result, conduct strategic risk mitigation, is now readily accessible and available. By prioritising risk identification and analysis, assessment and risk mitigation, airlines and other aviation stakeholders can proactively anticipate potential crises before they occur.
Realising The Value Of Proactive Alerts
Through the deployment of proactive alerts and forecasts, aviation industry players can gain insights into emerging risks, such as the types of geopolitical conflicts outlined above. With today’s actionable intelligence reports, organisations are empowered to take preventative measures, such as re-routing flights or adjusting operations, thereby significantly reducing their exposure to crisis.
Proactive risk management solutions, such as our own, have proven their worth across the aviation industry. Two days prior to the conflict erupting in Sudan on the 15th April 2023, we issued an alert to all our clients stating,
”Expect increased tensions following alleged mobilisation of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ and advising "Operators should be prepared for continued tensions and the possibility of clashes between the Sudanese military and RSF nationwide in the coming days. It remains a realistic possibility that clashes may escalate into more prolonged fighting throughout the country. Additionally, in the event of prolonged fighting between the Sudanese military and the RSF, airports, including Khartoum International Airport (HSSK/KRT), are likely to be targeted by RSF forces in an attempt to restrict the ability of the Sundanese Air Force and in order to control key sites."
This predictive intelligence provided our clients that were operating in the area at the time with 48 hours to implement mitigation measures and minimise the impact of the disruption. Other aviation operators that were relying on more traditional crisis response methods, were not so fortunate.
Of course, it’s not just war and conflict that the aviation industry needs to be forewarned about. Consider the escalating environmental protests. There’s no indication that this movement is slowing down. In fact, it’s on an upward trajectory and there is a strong indication that the protestors intend to physically damage aircraft - and this is in countries that are perceived low risk and have high levels of airport security, including France, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, UK and Norway.
We have successfully issued proactive alerts to our clients regarding environmental group protests, and by providing advanced knowledge of protest locations and timing, we have enabled our clients to proactively address potential threats and ensure the safety of their assets and personnel.
HOW CAN WE PREDICT A CRISIS?
Predictive risk management harnesses the power of data and advancements in ML and AI. AI tools can be used to aggregate incredible amounts of data from a broad spectrum of sources – with a specific focus on aviation security incidents and events. ML models are then applied to categorise the data in a structured format and AI anomaly detection tools are then deployed.
When applied to a verified security incident database, AI anomaly detection can identify trends and patterns within the global aviation operating environment at the country, airspace, and airport levels. AI anomaly detection within the global aviation operating environment can be used to identify increases/decreases in overall activity; activity occurring in new areas; new types of security incidents; and unusual combinations of security incident types.
