On 15 April 2023 conflict erupted in Sudan, targeting Khartoum airport, ultimately resulting in the destruction of over 20 aircraft and closure of airspace in one of the most heavily travelled flight corridors, significantly impacting both the Aviation and Insurance industries.
Two days prior to the escalation, Osprey Flight Solutions issued an Alert to all clients stating, ‘Expect increased tensions following alleged mobilisation of paramilitary Rapid Support Forces’ and advising "Operators should be prepared for continued tensions and the possibility of clashes between the Sudanese military and RSF nationwide in the coming days. It remains a realistic possibility that clashes may escalate into more prolonged fighting throughout the country. Additionally, in the event of prolonged fighting between the Sudanese military and the RSF, airports, including Khartoum International Airport (HSSK/KRT), are likely to be targeted by RSF forces in an attempt to restrict the ability of the Sundanese Air Force and in order to control key sites."
This predictive intelligence provided our clients operating in the area 48hrs to implement mitigation measures and limit the impact of the disruption.
BACKGROUND HOW WE DID IT
Social and political unrest in Sudan was not a new topic to Osprey, having issued 87 alerts on the country since the last coup in 2021. However, seemingly out of the blue, there were very few leading indicators that this conflict would happen.
Osprey’s thematic monitoring capabilities, of the full breadth of risk, identified and highlighted an anomaly. The change of topic (from largely civil unrest and cyber activity to more military operations) and volume of data (over 1000% above the trailing average) relating to Sudan. In addition, on 13 April Osprey detected Arabic language reporting on Rapid Support Forces (RSF) mobilisation in Sudan to "fight human trafficking, gold smuggling and to ensure stability" and Sudanese Army movements in response
This data along with regional expertise and the history of coups was analysed and interpreted by our team of analysts. With the probability of the situation occurring being determined a ‘Realistic possibility’ an alert containing the prediction and advised measures to mitigate against disruption was issued, 2 days prior to the conflict starting.
“While other security providers may have reported on the RSF deployment on 13 Aprilwith a focus on potential unrest and rising tensions - Osprey's unique expertise in understanding conflict zone dynamics and conventional military activity allowed our analysts to specifically forecast that there was an increased likelihood for attacks on airports and airbases in Sudan in the coming days.”
Matthew Borie, Chief Intelligence Officer, Osprey Flight SolutionsCAPABILITY OF TECHNOLOGY
Historically traditional sources of risk information have not been dynamic of quantifiable or have been based on human subjectivity and political agendas. These information sources weren’t designed to consider rapidly changing environments or provide situational intelligence, which makes them either too vague, too subjective, or simply not adequate to be beneficial to operations.
Osprey’s solutions combine open-source intelligence, AI and Machine learning to cut through the noise, identify leading indicators, interpret the data and predict disruptive events.
We monitor over 200,000 open sources globally in 60+ languages every few minutes. Our AI algorithms then filter out the ‘noise’ to provide only truly accurate, relevant, and aviation risk-specific information. On average, more than 13,000 data points are pushed into our database each month, each having been categorised, geolocated, multi-source verified using machine learning and quality controlled by our industry-leading analyst team. This unique data set is continuously checked for trends, patterns and anomalies using deep learning, providing early warning of emerging events and situations, giving organisations the ability to plan, avoid and mitigate risks ahead of time.
13 Apr
WHY OSPREY?
In a world where Silicon Carbon technologies are rapidly evolving, Osprey's unique capabilities are a testament to the power of advanced data analytics and forecasting in the security industry.
The ability to forecast and identify potential threats, such as the increased likelihood of attacks on airports and airbases in Sudan, sets Osprey apart from other security solution providers. Osprey’s expertise in understanding conflict zone dynamics and conventional military activity is invaluable in today's everchanging global landscape.
Ospreys' data collection and analysis capabilities have proven to be exceptional within the aviation industry. By utilizing Osprey, Explore, and Oracle, operators can confidently make data-driven decisions to stay ahead of potential disruptions and maintain operational standards. The situation in Sudan underscores the importance of being "left of bang" and proactively anticipating potential risks, rather than reacting to them after the fact.
If you want to find out more about our leading aviation risk assessment tools that you can use to gain a better understanding of the risks facing your flight operations, then please contact us today.
