Issue No : 76
Palestinian Cultural Organization Malaysia
6th January, 2014
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6th January, 2014
Issue No : 76
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1,873 Palestinian refugees killed in Syria till the end of 2013
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20,000 Palestinian refugees trapped in Yarmouk refugee campon Gaza FEATURED STORY
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1,873 Palestinian refugees killed in Syria till the end of 2013
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Can a Breakthrough Be Made in Palestinian-Israeli Peace Negotiations? Palestinian elderly man dies of tear gas inhalation
IOF Kills Palestinian Youth, Launches Airstrikes on Gaza Strip 2 |
ARTICLE
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Palestinian Cultural Organization Malaysia
Issue No : 76
6th January, 2014
CONTENTS News of Palestine
20,000 Palestinian refugees trapped in Yarmouk refugee campon Gaza 4 1,873 Palestinian refugees killed in Syria till the end of 2013 5 Haniyeh calls for 2014 to be year of national reconciliation 6 IOF Kills Palestinian Youth, Launches Airstrikes on Gaza Strip 7 Israeli police detain Palestinian girl for trying to stab soldier 8 Jewish extremists ask Israeli government to completely open Al-Aqsa to settlers 9 B›Tselem: 2013 witnesses rise in violence in West Bank 10 Ahrar: 40 Palestinians killed in WB and Gaza during 2013 11 Number of Palestinians in the World is 11.8 Million, says Statistics Bureau 12 Israel Insider
Strong Israeli opposition to any concessions in occupied Jordan Valley
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Articles & Analyses
Can a Breakthrough Be Made in Palestinian-Israeli Peace Negotiations?
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6th January, 2014
Issue No : 76
News of Palestine
20,000 Palestinian refugees trapped in Yarmouk refugee campon Gaza
03/01/2014 The Euro-Mediterranean Observatory for Human Rights (EMOHR) and the Working Group for the Palestinians of Syria (WGPS) have published a visual report about the humanitarian crisis in the Yarmouk camp for Palestinian refugees in the southern suburbs of Damascus. The camp has been witnessing a significant deterioration in health and humanitarian conditions over the past year.
to December 2012, when the Syrian opposition seized control of the camp from a Palestinian group loyal to the Syrian regime. Regime forces then responded with a bombing campaign, eventually inflicting a siege upon the population.
The report stresses that about 20,000 Palestinian refugees are currently trapped inside the camp, and that the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestinian refugees has not been able The Yarmouk camp is the to deliver any humanitarian aid largest refugee camp in Syr- to those in need inside the camp ia, with a population of about since last September. 148,000 people. The report said that at the end of However, the report shows December 2013, the number of that about 80 per cent of its victims from hunger and the impopulation has left the camp posed blockade had reached 36 since the outbreak of the on- refugees. going clashes that date back 4 |
In the same context, two Palestinian refugees in the Khan Eshieh camp were killed this afternoon after regime forces shelled the camp. The regime has targeted several Palestinian camps since the start of the almost three-year-long Syrian conflict. The working group said that the two martyrs fell dead after the refugee camp of Khan Eshieh, located southwest of Damascus, was bombed with two explosive barrels: the first landed in the Awel Elmokhayam area in front of Segad Sayda, and the second landed in the vicinity of Al-Tawh`ed Street, which led to the death of the two victims, as well as the injury of many others. Source: Pls48
Palestinian Cultural Organization Malaysia
Issue No : 76
6th January, 2014
1,873 Palestinian refugees killed in Syria till the end of 2013
01/01/2014 The action group for the Palestinians in Syria said that 1,873 Palestinian refugees had been killed in Syria since the start of Syria›s conflict and until the end of 2013 . In its annual report, the action group stated that 1,842 Palestinian refugees were killed in Syria, and 31 others were killed outside Syria while trying to escape from the bloody events. Approximately, 1,270 Palestinian refugees were killed in Palestinian refugee camps, while 572 refugees were killed outside their camps in Syria, the report added. According to the action group›s report, 956 Palestinian refugees were killed in Damascus city, 433 Palestin-
ian refugees were killed in Damascus countryside, while 196 others were martyred in Dara›a, and 87 refugees were killed in Aleppo, 58 victims were reported dead in Homs, and 27 Palestinian refugees in Kenitra, 24 refugees in Hama, 22 martyrs in Latakia, and 19 Palestinian victims in Idlib, and 20 Palestinian martyrs were reported in Syria›s border areas and between provinces. 31 Palestinian refugees died while trying to reach European shores in an attempt to flee the tragic situation in Syria, 15 others died in Egypt, and 16 more were reported dead in Greece, Malta, Italy, Turkey and Libya. The report clarified that 719 Palestinian refugees were killed in Yarmouk refugee camp, 151 Palestinian martyrs were reported in Dar›a camp and 95 martyrs in
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Husseiniyeh camp, in addition to 58 martyrs in Sbeina refugee camp. 58 Palestinians were also killed in Khan al-Shih refugee camp and 39 refugees in Sayeda Zeinab refand ugee camp, while 36 martyrs were reported in Neirab and 29 in al-Aidin refugee camp returnees in Homs, 27 refugees martyred in Handarat camp in Aleppo. The report also documented 16 Palestinian martyrs in al-Aidin refugee camp in Hama, 13 martyrs in Jaramana camp, 9 victims in Raml camp in Latakia, 7 Palestinian victims in Khan Dannoun camp, and six martyrs in Dayabia refugee camp, 6 others in Muzeireeb refugee camp in Daraa, and 3 victims in Rukn al-Din in Damascus.
Source: PIC | 5
6th January, 2014
Issue No : 76
Haniyeh calls for 2014 to be year of national reconciliation 01/01/2014 Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh called on Tuesday for presidential, parliamentary and National Council elections as soon as possible to demonstrate commitment to national reconciliation. Speaking at a conference about the Palestinian media and challenges held in Gaza, Haniyeh called for 2014 to be the «Year of Reconciliation». He said that each Palestinian faction should «do its utmost to end the political division and unite the occupied West Bank with the Gaza Strip.» Turning to Israel›s Judaisation policies in occupied Jerusalem, Mr Haniyeh said that a national strategy has to be developed to counter its effects. The strategy, he added, should also cover the slow annexation of the Jordan Valley and expanding settlements across the occupied West Bank. Such a united effort can challenge the siege imposed on the Gaza Strip since 2006. «We have good common ground to start with,» said the prime minister. «We have the reconciliation agreements brokered by Egypt and Qatar.» Announcing the formation of municipal councils in the Gaza Strip based on the national agreement, Mr Haniyeh described it as a «goodwill gesture» ahead of tangible 6 |
measures towards a comprehensive national agreement. «I hope that this happens in the West Bank.»
ology is that of «moderate» Islamists. «I cannot imagine that Egypt and Arab brothers are going to punish Hamas, which has sacrificed thousands of martyrs, stood steadfast in the face of the Israeli project and undermined Israeli plans in the region,» he said.
Regarding relations with Egypt, he reiterated that contacts with the Egyptian leadership had not stopped and that his government and movement do not interfere in the internal affairs of any country. «We cannot detach ourselves The prime minister criticised from Egypt, but nor can Egypt the international silence regardleave us suffering,» he insisted. ing the ongoing blockade of the Rival faction Fatah has said that Palestinian refugees in Syria. Hamas should detach itself from «It is unethical that the world is the Muslim Brotherhood follow- looking silently at the massacres ing the latter›s designation as a by starvation in the Palestinian «terrorist organisation» by the refugee camps,» he said, citing interim Egyptian government. Al-Yarmouk in the Damascus In response, the Hamas premier suburbs as an example. stressed that the movement›s ide-
Source: MEMO
Palestinian Cultural Organization Malaysia
Issue No : 76
6th January, 2014
Palestinian elderly man dies of tear gas inhalation
IOF Kills Palestinian Youth, Launches Airstrikes on Gaza Strip
the strip; no reports of injuries. The Israeli airplanes also launched a second strike targeted a site in Beit Hanoun village, and the third strike targeted the al-Shaja›ya neighborhood, east of Gaza Strip.
the tear gas used intensively by Israeli soldiers to disperse a Palestinian march.
Earlier on Thursday, an 85-year-old man was proclaimed dead after he had inhaled tear gas during an earIn a related context, the lier Israeli military attack on IOF launched airstrikes on homes in Kafr Qaddum village, east of Qalqiliya city. three Gaza Strip targets. Palestinian sources said Palestinian medical sources Israeli airplanes launched said the aged man, Sa›eid Ali, at least one rocket toward was rushed in critical condian agricultural land in al- tion to a hospital in Nablus Maghazi refugee camp in city after suffering health complications resulting from
It was not the first time the Israeli occupation forces deliberately fire tear gas grenades at homes during their suppression of popular protests or events held in the village, and several incidents were reported in which civilians, including children, inside homes suffered from tear gas inhalation.
03/01/2014 Medical sources in the Gaza Strip said Friday morning, that 17-year-old Palestinian Adnan Abu Khater was killed due to injuries sustained Thursday night. The boy Abu Khater was shot by IOF forces on a border fence, east of Jabaliya village, north of the Gaza Strip.
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They added that some of the Israeli tear gas grenades fell onto homes in the village, including the house of the elderly man.
Source: PNN + PIC | 7
6th January, 2014
Issue No : 76
Israeli police detain Palestinian girl for trying to stab soldier
04/01/2014 The Israeli occupation police detained on Friday evening a 16-year-old Jerusalemite girl for allegedly trying to stab an Israeli soldier in the Old City of occupied Jerusalem.
ter in the Old City.
Yedioth Ahronoth newspaper said that Israeli policemen rounded up the girl after she attacked a soldier with a knife and caused him a slight injury in one of his feet, and took her to an interrogation cen-
The court verdict was based on a videotaped recording showing a group of kids throwing stones at Israeli soldiers on Salahuddin street in Jerusalem.
In a separate incident, the Israeli magistrates› court in Jerusalem sentenced an 18- year-old young man named Mohamed Abu Khudair to nine months in jail on allegations of throwing stones and disturbing public peace and order.
Source: PIC
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Palestinian Cultural Organization Malaysia
Issue No : 76
6th January, 2014
Jewish extremists ask Israeli government to completely open Al-Aqsa to settlers
02/01/2014 An extremist Jewish group has sent a letter to the Israeli government asking for the occupation forces to allow Israeli Jews and foreign tourists access to all gates leading to Al-Aqsa Mosque, Al-Aqsa Foundation for Waqf and Islamic Heritage revealed on Thursday. The Foundation said that the so-called Temple Groups and Jewish activists represented by Likud Rabbi Yehuda Glick sent an urgent letter to the Israeli tourism minister, Uzi Landau, putting pressure on him to open all the gates to the Mosque, not only Al-Magharbeh Gate. According to the Foundation, the letter stated that: «Opening all the gates lessens pressure on Al-Magharbeh Gate, increases the number of tourists entering into the ‹Mosque›, and accelerates the movement of settlers who invade it from time to time.»
of Al-Magharbeh Gate. They expressed anger because Muslims can enter into the Mosque from all gates, but Jews and tourists enter only through one gate. In a statement that included all the details about the letter and the Israeli efforts to Judaise the Mosque, the Foundation said that the Temple Groups have been attempting to impose a de-facto Jewish existence inside the Mosque through their continuous invasions.
«The full area of Al-Aqsa Mosque, including the Western Wall (Al-Buraq Wall), is owned by Muslims,» the Foundation insisted, «and the continuous settler invasions are just atThe Foundation noted that the extremists attached an tempts to impose a Jewish existence on the image of settlers and tourists standing in queues in front Mosque, according to their dream.»
Source: MEMO
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Issue No : 76
6th January, 2014
B›Tselem: 2013 witnesses rise in violence in West Bank 02/01/2014 B›Tselem, The Israeli Information Center for Human Rights in the Occupied Territories, said in a report Tuesday that the number of Palestinian fatalities in 2013 by IOF-related violence is the highest in five years. According to the report, the number of Palestinian martyrs in the West Bank is 27, while in the Gaza Strip it is 9. The IOF violence against Palestinians has increased this year compared to 2012, the report reveals. The report said that the number of Palestinian fatalities has increased during the IsraeliPalestinian negotiations period and it provided details about 21 incidents in the West Bank this year. Nine of the incidents involved Israeli forces entering Palestinian communities to arrest Palestinians, B›Tselem said. In four of these cases, soldiers shot at stone throwers. In another four there were exchanges of live fire. The NGO said it was unable to verify the ninth 10 |
incident, in which both sides were said to have shot at each other. The report said that seven of the incidents involved stone throwing. In four of those cases, soldiers fired at Palestinians who were throwing stones at them. In the other three, soldiers fired «while lying in wait to capture the stone throwers,» B›Tselem said. B›Tselem also stated that this year in the Gaza Strip, Israeli occupation forces killed four Palestinians. Another was killed in a targeted assassination. In the sixth case, the circumstances of the death were unclear. The NGO added that in three instances, the Palestinians were not taking part in hostilities when they were killed. Jessica Montel, the executive director of B›Tselem, said that the Israeli government has failed to hold soldiers accountable for their actions in spite of a new, more stringent policy adopted almost three years ago.
Source: PNN
Palestinian Cultural Organization Malaysia
Issue No : 76
6th January, 2014
Ahrar: 40 Palestinians killed in WB and Gaza during 2013
02/01/2014 Ahrar Center for Prisoners’ Studies confirmed in its annual report that 40 Palestinians were killed in occupied West Bank and Gaza Strip during 2013 by Israeli occupation forces. The center’s director Fuad Khuffash stated that there are no data discrepancies between his center’s annual report and Amnesty and B’Tselem organizations’ reports. The two human rights organizations have only documented Palestinian martyrs killed by Israeli fire, while Ahrar center has added the names of Captive Movement’s martyrs Ashraf Abu Dra’a, Arafat Jaradat, Maysara Abu Hamdiya, and Hassan al-Turabi who martyred due to Israeli medical negligence policy, he clarified. According to Ahrar’s report, 31 Palestinians were killed in occupied West Bank, while nine marSource: PIC tyrs have been documented in the besieged Gaza Strip by Israeli fire and shells.
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6th January, 2014
Issue No : 76
Number of Palestinians in the World is 11.8 Million, says Statistics Bureau
01/01/2014
The Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) presents the situation of Palestinians at the end of 2013, as follows:
Increase in world population of Palestinians The projected number of Palestinians in the world is 11.8 million, of whom 4.5 million are in Palestine, 1.4 million in Israel, 5.2 million in Arab countries and around 665 thousand in foreign countries.
More than one-third of population in Gaza Strip The projected number of Palestinians living in Palestine at the end of 2013 is 4.5 million: around 2.8 million increased in the West Bank and 1.7 million in the Gaza Strip. Palestinian refugees make up 44.2% of the Palestinian population in Palestine: 41.2% of them in the West Bank and 58.8% in the Gaza Strip.
Decline in fertility rate The total fertility rate declined during 2008-2009 to 4.4 births compared with 6.0 births in 1997. In the Gaza Strip, the rate was 5.2 births compared to 4.0 births in the West Bank, during 2008-2009.
detailed fertility rate, particularly in Higher fertility rate among Palesthe early reproductive years (15-24 tinians in Israel than among Jews. years). The total fertility rate in 2012 Decrease in average household size among Palestinians living in IsraThe average household size in Pal- el was 3.3 births compared to 3.0 estine was 5.3 persons in 2012 com- births among Jews. pared to 6.4 in 1997: 5.1 persons in The average Palestinian household the West Bank and 6.0 persons in size in Israel is 4.8 persons. The crude birth rate of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. Falling crude birth and mortality rate Israel exceeded 24.8 births for every 1000 of population. The crude birth rate is 32.6 births for every 1000 of population: 29.7 The number of Palestinians in hisin the West Bank compared to 37.1 torical Palestine will exceed the in Gaza Strip. The rate is expected number of Jews, over time. to decline to 31.9 by 2015. The number of Palestinians in hisThe crude death rate is 3.8 deaths for every 1000 of population: 4.0 in the West Bank compared to 3.7 in Gaza Strip. The rate is expected to decline to 3.6 by 2015.
torical Palestine totaled 5.9 million at the end of 2013.
There were 6.0 million Jews at the end of 2012, according to estimates by the Israeli Central Bureau High fertility rate among Palestin- of Statistics and the number is expected to reach 6.1 million Jews by ians in Jordan the end of 2013. The total fertility rate for Palestinians living in Jordan was 3.3 births The number of Palestinians and in 2010 compared to 2.5 in Syria in Jews will total about 6.4 million each, by the end of 2016, provided 2010 and 2.8 in Lebanon in 2011. that current growth rates remain Youthful Palestinian population in constant.
Israel
However, the number of PalestinThe number of Palestinians living in ians in historical Palestine will Israel is 1.4 million, of whom about total 7.2 million, compared to 6.9 36.1% are aged below 15 years Jews by the end of 2020. compared to 4.1% aged 65 years There has been a decline in the and above. Source: IMEMC 12 |
Palestinian Cultural Organization Malaysia
Issue No : 76
6th January, 2014
Israel Insider
Strong Israeli opposition to any concessions in occupied Jordan
By: Khalid Amayreh*
01/01/2013 Deputy Israeli Foreign Minister Ze’ev Elkin expressed on Thursday his refusal to consider any framework agreement with the Palestinian Authority (PA) based on the 1967 borders. Speaking to Israeli radio, Elkin said: “Israel has to refuse any American framework agreement if it includes the issue of the 1967 borders, or if it does not approve Israeli sovereignty over the Jordan Valley.” Elkin added: “It is good to have negotiations going on, but it is important that they do not cost Israel an existential
Home MKs visited the Jordan Valley. The Israeli newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth noted that: “The tour is sending a mesUS Secretary of State John Kerry sage to Kerry on territorial arrived on Thursday afternoon in concessions.” Tel-Aviv. He aims to resuscitate The newspaper added that the flagging talks on a two-state Sa’ar used the tour to reiterate solution between Israel and the his opposition to dismantling the occupation in the Jordan PA. During what will be his tenth visit Valley. It reported him saying: since taking office last year, he is “Without Jewish settlement, to meet with Israeli Prime Minis- the army has nothing to defend ter Benjamin Netanyahu and PA and no reason to be there, and without the army there will be President Mahmoud Abbas. only terror.” The same day Kerry arrived, IsSource: MEMO raeli Interior Minister Gideon Sa’ar and a number of Jewish price.” He noted that the government “must not” commit to issues that completely oppose the Likud party’s principles.
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6th January, 2014
Issue No : 76
Articles & Analyses
Can a Breakthrough Be Made in Palestinian-Israeli Peace Negotiations? It appears that the Arab Spring’s aftershock/counterrevolution, culminated with the military coup in Egypt, has given a strong push for the peace process with Israel; encouraging the Israeli-American party to take advantage of the historical opportunity offered by an Arab strategic environment - that is weak, fragmented, and mired in conflicts and crises - and the Palestinian weakness and division, to try to solve the Palestinian issue and reorder the region in a way that suits Israeli-American interests.
Resumption of Negotiations On 19/7/2013, US Secretary of State John Kerry, after six rounds in the region spanning the better part of five months, declared that the Palestinians and Israelis have agreed to resume peace talks between them, which had seen a hiatus lasting almost three years. The date for the resumption of the negotiations was set on 30/7/2013.
tion Organization (PLO) insisted on refusing to continue the talks except after Israeli settlement building in the West Bank (WB) ceases and a new well-defined frame of reference for the negotiations is established, based on Israel recognizing the twostate solution on the basis of the borders of 1967. The PLO then added a demand related to Palestinian prisoners in the Israeli jails, especially prisoners who were arrested before the 1993 Oslo Accords.
Practically speaking, the PLO leadership has since waived these conditions, and bowed to the Israeli dictates regarding negotiations in light of continSince the negotiations col- ued settlement activity, without lapsed in late 2010, the lead- a well-defined frame of referership of the Palestine Libera- ence that would be binding for 14 |
Israel. This is while Israel has pledged to release prisoners held before Oslo in batches. The PLO leadership overhyped this “achievement” to cover up its failures over what are otherwise the core components of the negotiating process. The PLO leadership contented itself with clarifications, or socalled “guarantees” pledged during the US campaign to push for the resumption of the negotiations. However, these are merely verbal guarantees (known as Kerry’s plan), primarily emphasizing the Palestinian people’s right to rule themselves and to achieve their aspirations, in a contiguous, sovereign state, in accordance to the two-state solution
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6th January, 2014
based on the borders of 1967 could secure an Arab climate tlement that puts an end to the with mutually agreed swaps. conducive for the peace process. conflict.
Success Factors in Negotiations
4. The strong AmericanWestern interest to take advantage of the state of chaos, fragmentation, and weakness, and the conflicts blighting the region, 1. The willingness of the to create a new map more in line PLO/Fatah leadership to compromise on some Palestinian Fundamentals such as the right of the refugees to return to their lands occupied in 1948, and reaching deals that may be satisfactory to the Israeli side regarding the future of Jerusalem, the settlements, land swaps, security guarantees, and establishing a demilitarized state… . Some pundits believe that there is a chance to make the negotiations a success, for the following reasons:
3. The presence of a favorable regional environment after the severe blow dealt to the Arab Spring in Egypt, and as a result of the faltering march of revolutions for change and reform, the decline of the “Refusal Front” (i.e., Syria, Iran, Hamas and Hizbullah), Hamas’s loss of much of its previous regional logistical support, the tightened siege on Gaza Strip (GS), and the revival of the “moderate axis,” which
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2. The Israeli concerns about missing a historic opportunity to snap up major concessions from the Palestinians, in the presence of a weak Palestinian leadership, Palestinian division, and stalling efforts for inter-Palestinian reconciliation.
The American side is unable (and unwilling) to put pressure on Israel to make “historic” concessions or concessions that are undesirable to Israel.
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with Israeli-American-Western interests; and the American conviction that these arrangements cannot be realized except after solving the Palestinian question. 5. The Israeli realization that they have no future in the region except if their state is “normalized,” which is not possible except by achieving a peace set-
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6. The Israeli awareness of the threat posed by Palestinian population growth, inside historic Palestine, to the future of the “Jewish state” and the Jewish identity of Israel.
Failure Factors in Negotiations Other pundits expect the negotiations to fail for several reasons, most notably: 1. It is very difficult for the Palestinian side to sell, to its own people, a final agreement based on Israeli terms with historical concessions. 2. The Israeli side itself is unprepared to make “historic” concessions for the Palestinian people. For one thing, Israel is led by an extremist government, in a society that is becoming increasingly extremist. The Israelis in general agree on what is a “no,” but not on what is a “yes.” 3. The American side is unable (and unwilling) to put pressure on Israel to make “historic” concessions or concessions that are undesirable to Israel. 4. The mistrust the Israeli side harbors for the Palestinian negotiating party, which is perceived as weak and unrepresentative of the Palestinian people, and one that may not | 15
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5. The Arab and Islamic climate is unstable and full of challenges, and thus its interactions cannot be controlled and its developments cannot be reassured to. Hence, any guarantees or current Arab partnerships in the peace process could lose their meanings or legitimacy with any change in the existing regimes. 6. The Israeli negotiating strategy is based on “managing the problem” rather than “resolving the problem.” It therefore has a stake in prolonging the negotiations, as much as possible, while continuing to build facts on the ground, including strengthening Jewish presence, building settlements, and confiscating lands and holy sites; until the goal of imposing its vision on the other side is achieved, after having invalidated the cards the latter holds.
Course of Negotiations Since 30/7/2013, more than 20 negotiating rounds were held. Their outcome was frustrating for the Fatah/Palestinian side, as the Israeli side sustained its settlement activities frantically, and did not delve into the 16 |
core issues of the peace process, nor offer its vision for the final solution. Instead, the Israelis continued to put pressure regarding security arrangements and their details, and about recognizing Israel as a state for the Jewish people, and did not accept the idea of the Palestinian state
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be able to implement its commitments. Hence, there is no justification for making substantial concessions that may go in vain.
A demilitarized Palestinian state based on the borders of 1967, possibly starting out with temporary borders on 80% of WB.
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based on the borders of 1967, or enter negotiations about demarcating the borders. Reports leaked that there was a request to lease the Jordan Valley region (28% of WB) for 40 years (the Americans proposed 1015 years that can be renewed), with the settlements clustered in ten settlement blocks, and early warning stations kept in
the WB highlands. There was also an Israeli desire to separate GS from the negotiating process. The Palestinian negotiating party, which appeared to be engaged in a futile process, submitted its resignation on 30/10/2013 to Palestinian President Mahmud ‘Abbas, who insisted on continuing to negotiate until the end of the deadline set at April 2014. Concerning what the Palestinian side has offered in the “compromises market,” the leaks suggest: A demilitarized Palestinian state based on the borders of 1967, possibly starting out with temporary borders on 80% of WB, expanding gradually within three years to reach its final borders, with the possibility of maintaining the core settlement blocks through a land swap that does not exceed 2%, proportionately in size and value. Another offer involves forfeiting the right of Palestine refugees to return to the land occupied in 1948 (i.e., Israel), with willingness to make some concessions in East Jerusalem concerning the Western Wall and the Jewish Quarter (AlSharaf Quarter), as well as parts of the Armenian Quarter, the Sheikh Jarrah Quarter, and the Jewish cemetery on the Mount of Olives.
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Issue No : 76 Meanwhile, there is declared Palestinian rejection (so far!) of recognizing Israel as a Jewish state or as a state for the “Jewish people,” on the grounds that Israel was already politically recognized in 1993, and that Israel cannot be recognized on an ideological basis, something that was not raised in the treaties concluded with Egypt and Jordan.
in East Jerusalem. Most Arab countries would endorse the peace agreement and normalization, on the grounds of accepting whatever the Palestinians assent to. Celebratory coverage in the media will portray this as a historic achievement of establishing the Palestinian state, supposedly rescuing most of the WB and GS from Israeli occupation and the clutches of the process of “Judaization,” despite the disPossible Scenarios advantages and evils of this new There are five possible scenariagreement. os for the negotiations: 2. A New Framework 1. Historic Agreement Agreement (Oslo 2) This scenario is based on the This scenario is based on the idea that the Palestinian and Ispremise that both parties are not raeli sides, and also the Americompletely prepared to reach fican and Western side, want to nal agreements (especially the take advantage of the historic Israeli side). However, an agreeopportunity that may not be ment is made by the two sides repeated, to conclude an agreesupported by a favorable rement that would decisively gional and international climate, settle final status issues. In esfocusing on the need to make an sence, this agreement would important breakthrough, without approve the establishment of a necessarily settling the issues of demilitarized Palestinian state the refugees, Jerusalem, and the based on the borders of 1967, borders. This means agreeing with limited land swaps, and a to establish the Palestinian state safe corridor between the WB within provisional borders, on and GS. The settlement blocks 60-70% of the WB. Meanwhile, would remain, the right of the Israel continues to maintain its refugees to return to the Palescontrol over the ports of entry tinian lands occupied in 1948 to the state awaiting a final soluwould be forfeited, and a solution. tion would be reached giving some measure of sovereignty This is a scenario favored by and guarantees to both sides Israel, albeit it has so far been rejected by the PLO leadership,
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6th January, 2014 fearing for what is temporary to become permanent, and fearing for the other issues to become merely disputes between two states, as is the case with many countries of the world. 3. New Temporary Arrangements This could happen to avoid declaring the failure of the negotiations, by expanding partially and in a limited fashion the areas administered by the Palestinian Authority, which is also given further economic incentives, in addition to releasing more prisoners, curtailing checkpoints, and reducing security measures in the WB. 4. Failure of Negotiations, Israeli Unilateral Withdrawal This is linked to Sharon’s project, on the basis of which the Kadima party was founded. It is based on the premise that it is impossible to reach a final settlement that both sides can agree to. Therefore, as the plan envisages, the Israeli side must determine by itself the areas that it wants to withdraw from, without consulting the Palestinians. This would be offered as a “great sacrifice” for peace, and would turn the Israeli problem with the Palestinians afterwards into a mere border dispute. However, this scenario involves great disparity | 17
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5. Failure of Negotiations, and the Continuation of the Status Quo It is based on an Israeli reading that does not believe the time is right to make concessions, and that the Palestinian, Arab, and Islamic situation is brittle, weak, torn, and unstable, meaning that concessions have no tangible benefits for the Israeli side. Israel also believes in the need to continue to build facts on the ground to ultimately impose the Israeli vision of the peace settlement from a practical perspective, allowing the Palestinian Authority to only manage the population at the end, while the land would remain under Israeli domination.
breakthrough in the peace process. Since many of the demands laid on the Palestinians had been already obtained in the past— including most points related to the refugees, Jerusalem, the settlements, the security arrange-
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in the views of the Israelis who support it: Indeed, some speak about withdrawing from 43% of the WB, while others speak about withdrawing from twothirds, and others still about withdrawing behind the Separation Wall (approx. 88%). In any case, the whole of East Jerusalem, the settlement blocks, and water sources would remain under Israeli control.
Israel also believes in the need to continue to build facts on the ground
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ly. This scenario involves some arrangements that will “save face.” There is also the fifth scenario, which holds that negotiations would fail. As for the scenario for a unilateral Israeli withdrawal, this is still unlikely under the current political circumstances, which do not tend to allow a vacuum in the WB without prior arrangements, lest Hamas and the resistance forces fill this vacuum. As for Palestinians, in such uncondusive atmosphere, and unfair rules of the game, they should pull out from these negotiations, which give a false image of the peace process and the relationship with the Israel, and provides ideal cover for the occupation and Judaization and settlement programs, holding the Palestinian national project hostage to Israeli and American dictates. It is also incumbent upon the Palestinians to give priority to reconciliation and ending the division, rally the Palestinian people’s strengths and huge potential at home and abroad, put the Palestinian house in order and reshape its independent decision, and regain the Arab, Islamic, and international dimensions of the Palestinian issue.
ments, and the demilitarized Palestinian state—progressing towards an agreement depends primarily on the extent of Israel’s estimation of the situation. So far, this estimation is not inclined to reach a historic agreement ending the conflict. For this reason, Israel might seek to bring about the second scenario, involving a new framework Any Likely Scenario? agreement without resolving It is not easy to determine the final issues. In this case, the which is the most likely sce- approval of the Palestinian side nario among these scenarios. will make it a likely scenario, but * Dr. Mohsen Saleh is the director, However, it is possible to speak in case it was rejected, the third Al-Zaytouna Centre of Studies and about a chance to achieve a scenario will become more like- Consultations, Beirut, Lebanon. 18 |
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